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Will We Have Another September Crisis

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

 

Are we headed for another September Crisis?

 

In general the period from May until November is a time for market underperformance. The average performance for the period from May 1 through October 31 each year since 1950 is just 1.2%. The average performance for the other six months of the year (November 1 through April 30) each year since 1950 is 7.0%.

 

Historically, September is has been the single worst month for stocks over the last 80 years. Since 1929, on average the S&P 500 has fallen 1.1% in September.

 

This is only one of three months to have an average negative return over this period. And it is the single worst month of the year (the other two are May with an average return of -0.1% and February with an average return of  -0.2%).

 

Moreover, it is the Autumn when banking and financial crises have a tendency to occur. In terms of specific months, September and October are the worst with issues that lead up crashes erupting in September with October being when the actual crashes finally hit. There were Crashes during these months in 1907, 1929, 1987, and 2008.

 

All told, there have been a total of 147 crises since 1970 in the world. September accounted for 27 of them, the single largest month.

 

For certain stocks are definitively in a bubble. Based simply on CAPE (cyclical adjusted price to earnings) the market is significantly overvalued with a reading of nearly 24 (anything over 15 is overvalued).

 

Indeed, we’ve only been at this level of valuation during major stock tops (1929, 1966, 2000, and 2007)

 

??

 

Now we have the Government potentially shutting down. The markets are open on Monday which will be the last day in September.

 

Are we going to get another September Crisis?

 

For a free Special Report on how to prep your portfolio for a market collapse, visit us at: http://gainspainscapital.com/protect-your-portfolio/

 

Best Regards

 

Graham Summers

 

 

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Mon, 09/30/2013 - 05:00 | 4004858 Bear
Bear's picture

Obama wants a shutdown ... We'll get one ... TPTB will allow the market to fall making the FED look good and at the same time placing blame for the fall and the 'bad' economy on the Repubs

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 00:29 | 4004611 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Our controllers seem to have an evil fetish regarding anniversary dates.  We keep getting false flag attacks on 9/11, and warnings on other anniversaries.

I find it striking that 'Black Tuesday' was October 29, 1929.  This October 29 happens to fall on a Tuesday, also.

 

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 02:57 | 4004812 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

And to add:

Strange that 911 is the US emergency call number ... it's as if our controllers are blatantly taunting us with clues and arrogantly saying, "What are you plebs/goyim/sheep/morons going to do about it?"

Daddy Bush was overheard saying something like,  "If they knew what we have really done, then they (the 99%) would hang us."

You have a good point OldPhart and I, at 70 years of age, have noticed the same as you.

The psychopaths who run the Empire apparently delight in dropping clues as to their agenda of total world control ... ever bolder with the PNAC/NWO because it's now proven that there will never be any mass resistance.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 21:13 | 4004409 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

So how does the September Kenya shootout effect Obama's domestic antigun efforts?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 11:13 | 4003310 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

October has always been my pick for crisis month, at least since my January, May and July picks rolled by.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 13:33 | 4003594 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"October has always been my pick for crisis month,..."

What if something happens tomorrow and leads into October?

We see the perfect setup for a false flag event beforeus now. Hopefully, it will not be something nuklear, but it could happen September 30th on a Monday morning to milk and pump FEAR in the news-feeds all week as is the norm. It could then lead on into October 1st, and then the head-puppet could declare martial law using that to cover up the failure of the govt to pass a budget because there is NO money to pay the budget. This and the whole obamacare scam is at stake. What a brew of chaotic babylonia stew is it.

Either way, something wicked comes and everybody knows it. This kind of insanity in things like the Hegelian dialectic, and warmongering for profits using false flag events to start wars has gone way to far of the deck. It is a floating turd that people keep apple bobbing for to eat. Why? Ignorance. Pure ignorance of what is right, and what is wrong. Many are to busy in the left right, republicrat and demopublican, up is down, and black is white paradigm, instead of the basic right and wrong differences.

So, in this important time it is all hands on deck as we head into these uncertain waters. All we want for Christmas is Peace on Earth. Can we do that, or will the warmongering, profiteering, murdering, evil population reductionists have their way? The truth is, 99.9% of the world's people have had enough of these crazed babylonians. It is way past time to clean house!

Just for fun, here is an old report. Was it a year early? Time will tell. Hopefully, as always, the Light on the possibilities is brighter than the energy in the evil ones to create another false flag event, and the horrid caca-roaches will not crawl out from the darkness to do their evil deeds.

http://beforeitsnews.com/conspiracy-theories/2012/08/obamas-nuclear-fals...

 

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 12:30 | 4003474 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

predict early but often ;-)

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:40 | 4004686 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Enough times and you finally get it right.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 10:04 | 4003172 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Ordinarily I would ask if a bear shits in the woods, but we only have one and a half days left ... are we aloud to pre-date our October catastrophe so we can call it a September catastrophe???

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:30 | 4004582 nobodyimportant
nobodyimportant's picture

aloud? Try allowed next time.  Jesus!

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 22:45 | 4004618 nobodyimportant
nobodyimportant's picture

So who are you-- the negative vote?  Another idiot that never read a third grade grammer book?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 09:44 | 4003162 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Don't know about anyone else, but if Washington goes home forever and the market tanks 75%,

my sun will still rise in the east and the dogs will still get fed.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 10:35 | 4003224 CH1
CH1's picture

From your keyboard to God's ears!!!

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 05:47 | 4003006 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Of all the Phoenix Capital articles this is certainly one of them.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 05:03 | 4002999 buttmint
buttmint's picture

naw, there won't be no stinkiin' crash! If there was, it'd be the most over-predicted one in the history of mankind.

Things will keep chuggin' along....downhill....

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 03:40 | 4002979 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

If you predict anything long enough it is bound to happen. It is the same with a car. You don't worry about when a flat tyre happens if you have a spare in the boot.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 16:34 | 4003868 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Tyre? Boot? How about speaking English so' sew can understand you?

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 06:50 | 4004884 quikwit
quikwit's picture

He meant dickey.  Spare in the dickey.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 01:45 | 4002904 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

You do realize September is about over, right?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 03:52 | 4002984 Dr. Bonzo
Dr. Bonzo's picture

LMFAO.

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 23:14 | 4004651 nobodyimportant
nobodyimportant's picture

WTF is Sersly?  Hope it is not contagious.

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 02:28 | 4004798 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

It's in the same category as Defny, e.g. "Thingys are Sersly wrong, so we r Defny gonna find out that we are Fuckyoushimed every which way to Klingon come."

I think that a sense of tumour is apt in these times, but you apparently do not?

Sun, 09/29/2013 - 09:12 | 4003144 max2205
max2205's picture

With ONE day left in Sept. ... I can't think of anyone I wouldnt follow more than Graham

 

What a douche....I think he meant Oct but with Ben printing he'd be wrong on that too

Mon, 09/30/2013 - 02:38 | 4004804 Setarcos
Setarcos's picture

You obviously only skimmed what Graham wrote.

He did not claim that September was/is THE month.

Read the article again before calling him "a douche" again.

As most people here in ZH agree, this is one of the best articles that he has written.

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