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Obama - "I need a lever"
As a long time watcher of Social Security I was shocked (yes, shocked) at the recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report on America's largest entitlement program. CBO concluded that the long term outlook for SS deteriorated substantially over the last twelve month. (CBO link)
CBO revised its assumptions regarding mortality. This is a huge variables for SS. With people living longer, they will receive more checks; this eats into the solvency of SS over a long-term period.
CBO concluded that one option to 'balance' the solvency of SS required an "Immediately and Permanent" payroll tax increase of 3.4% (Wow!). A year earlier, CBO stated that a payroll tax increase of 1.9% was required to balance SS. The change in the tax increase required is 70% higher than that reported just a year ago!
SS's taxable payroll is equal to 36.3% of GDP. That comes to $5.8 Trillion for 2013. A 3.4% tax increase translates to approximately $200 Bn! A tax increase of this magnitude would absolutely sink the economy. There is no chance in hell that anything like that could (or should) happen. However, there are a variety of other alternatives to tweak SS that would not have the negative consequences of such a big tax increase.
Were it not for the fact that the country is managing its finances on a month to month basis, the rapidly growing problems at SS would be high on the list of problems that need attention. Clearly, the White House has read the CBO report. I wonder if the WH will use the rapidly deteriorating condition of SS as its "lever" in negotiating with Republicans over the budget and the debt limit.
Would Obama throw SS under the bus to achieve an extension of the debt limit and an end to the shutdown? Of course he would. Some things that might happen as part of a 'big deal' to buy a resolution of the immediate crisis(s):
I) Raise the cap on taxable earning- liberals love this.
II) Raise the retirement age - Obama has already pushed for this.
III) Means test SS retirement benefits - Republicans wanted this for Medicare.
IV) Change the COLA inflation adjustment. Liberals hate this, Republicans want it, Obama has pushed for it.
If all four of these steps were adopted, it would have Zero consequence to the economy for the next three years. Obama would love that outcome.
What's the most important thing for Obama? To end the debate over ACA. Would he trade ObamaCare for big changes to SS? In a New York minute.
As near as I can tell, there is currently no basis for a resolution to the budget impasse, and it looks like we are headed off the cliff on the debt limit. Something has to give. SS may be the lever that the Big O needs for a deal that saves his presidency. The Tea Party folks in the House will not vote for anything that allows ACA to continue, but there are a fair number of moderate Republicans who would trade SS for ACA. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) would puke at this result, so would Harry Reid (D-NV. But if they apposed a deal, then they would be the ones responsible for a national default (Republicans would love this outcome).
Would Obama push his pals off a cliff to get a deal? The answer is that he has no other viable options.
Note:
The "Non Partisan" CBO did not have to make dramatic changes to its mortality assumptions in September of 2013. The 5/13 SS Report to Congress did not have changes in its mortality rates, but CBO did. Why? CBO knew that it was teeing up SS with its revisions. Was the timing of the revisions related to the then pending crisis over the budget and debt ceiling? Who really has levers in D.C.? Technocrats?
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This^^^^. The NSA has a dossier on every congress critter
"Who really has levers in D.C.?"
Diebold. It's why we end up with the dipshits (like Harry Reid) that we have.
i think 85B a month should be enough to keep me in waffles. if we take a few dollars away from the drone killers, and subsidies for the electric car makers.
No problem. Just have Cheesepope manufacture a tril or two and stick it in there. Problem solved.
The National Park Service is sending so many officials out to shut down federal parks from visiting Americans that at this rate it might have to suspend furloughs if the government closure continues.
Two examples:
-- At the World War II Memorial on The Mall in Washington, where veterans have been staging protests to keep it open, Washington Examiner's Charlie Spiering reports that at least seven officials were dispatched Wednesday morning to set up a ring of barricades to block tourists from the memorial. That is two more than the State Department had in Benghazi a year ago on the night of the terrorist attack that killed four, including the U.S. ambassador.
-- National Park Officials closed down the educational Claude Moore Colonial Farm near the CIA in McLean, Va., even though the federal government doesn't fund or staff the park popular with children and schools. Just because the privately-operated park is on Park Service land, making the federal government simply its landlord, the agency decided to close it.
A Claude Moore Colonial Farm official said that the privately-funded staff is on the job Wednesday, but barred from letting anybody visit the historically accurate buildings or animals. Anna Eberly, the managing director, sent out an email decrying the decision and rude National Park Service staff handling the closure.
Pointing to Park Service claims that parks have to be closed because the agency can’t afford staff during the government closure, Eberly wrote: “What utter crap. We have operated the Farm successfully for 32 years after the NPS cut the Farm from its budget in 1980 and are fully staffed and prepared to open today. But there are barricades at the Pavilions and entrance to the Farm. And if you were to park on the grass and visit on your own, you run the risk of being arrested. Of course, that will cost the NPS staff salaries to police the Farm against intruders while leaving it open will cost them nothing.”
She added: “In all the years I have worked with the National Park Service, first as a volunteer for six years in Richmond where I grew up, then as an NPS employee at the for eight very long years and now enjoyably as managing director for the last 32 years — I have never worked with a more arrogant, arbitrary and vindictive group representing the NPS. I deeply apologize that we have to disappoint you today by being closed but know that we are working while the National Park Service is not — as usual.”
A Claude Moore Colonial Farm official said that the privately-funded staff is on the job Wednesday, but barred from letting anybody visit the historically accurate buildings or animals. Anna Eberly, the managing director, sent out an email decrying the decision and rude National Park Service staff handling the closure.
Pointing to Park Service claims that parks have to be closed because the agency can’t afford staff during the government closure, Eberly wrote: “What utter crap. We have operated the Farm successfully for 32 years after the NPS cut the Farm from its budget in 1980 and are fully staffed and prepared to open today. But there are barricades at the Pavilions and entrance to the Farm. And if you were to park on the grass and visit on your own, you run the risk of being arrested. Of course, that will cost the NPS staff salaries to police the Farm against intruders while leaving it open will cost them nothing.”
She added: “In all the years I have worked with the National Park Service, first as a volunteer for six years in Richmond where I grew up, then as an NPS employee at the for eight very long years and now enjoyably as managing director for the last 32 years — I have never worked with a more arrogant, arbitrary and vindictive group representing the NPS. I deeply apologize that we have to disappoint you today by being closed but know that we are working while the National Park Service is not — as usual.”
In the theatrical called democratic government, - This is a pattern of conduct all the way down to local townships. when there is not enough money for the insiders, bigshots, old-money (old thieves) in town to continue their lifestyle, that is, continue stealing, whether by sweetheart insider deals, a monopoly on power or telephone distribution, or getting that big contract the 3rd time to repave a sagging roadway the 4th time, they cut the most visible to the public services, to create a public outcry, to instill tolerance for yet more taxes.
Like the "Sequester" fraud, the whole fake "shutdown" is just political brinkmanship and theater designed to rouse the rabble against the "bad guys"--which would be ALL of them.
Would Obama push his pals off a cliff to get a deal? I'd push Obama and his pals off a cliff to get a thrill.
Exactly IC.
My field station (as well as many others) were told that the public needed to "feel the pain" after the sequester. Same story this time around. Not the NPS by the way, but a similar agency
Even funnier when one considers that all the "surplus" in the SS "fund" is in the form of UST bonds.
http://www.justfacts.com/images/socialsecurity/gwb.jpg
They stole for the "fund" and then stole the "fund--"Only the criminals of government could steal the same dollar more than once."
LOL
Now back to sharpening the guillotine's blade.
That is certainly an accounting trickery, nothing more. Fundamentally SS is in cronic deficit and for all intents and purposes is bankrupt. Major driver of that are demographics.
That would mean a further transfer from younger generation upon eldelrly through the SS mechanism while big portion of money will stick to the hands in the process. It's not sustainable, never was. The real implication of the entire debacle is that mortality rate will increase.
what? you can't steal from yourself? Watch me, I just did. Ooops, I guess it wasn't my wallet, oh well.
John Cougar Mellencamp covered this years ago
« I NEED A LEVER WHO WON'T DRIVE ME CRAZY !
HEY, HIT THE HIGHWAY ! »
Great screaming live performance, terrific thumping drums with Mellecamp doing the refrain a capella
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdl5_3HX8bU
Oh, sorry, that sounds more like, 'I need a lover who won't drive me crazy ...'
Well Bruce I think you and many of us can empathise !
Obama needs a lever that won't drive him crazy, besides Reggie Love.
Reggie Love used to be a Tight End but now he is a Wide Receiver. Obama is the QB (Queer Bastard) who pitches. He may also receive. He plays FAGball for the Blue Team.
The Boner plays Fagball for the Red Team. Yes they have a Gay Old Time in Washingtoon D.C.
Furthermore they are a bunch of Pedophiles whom are intent on fucking your children.
Keep that Sodom on the Potomac SHUT DOWN.
You seem curiously well informed on this matter.
I love listening to The Little Bastard.
Same thing came to my mind.
How about:
"In the shuffling madness
Of the locomotive breath,
Runs the all-time loser,
Headlong to his death.
He feels the piston scraping --
Steam breaking on his brow --
Thank God, he stole the handle and
The train won't stop going --
No way to slow down. . . "?
Gotta represent for ole' JT.
My crystal balls (oops I mean ball) foresees a new meal plan in store for the po folks in the USA. Food stamps and SNAP cards will be valid only for the little green cookies in isle 6. They're yummy for your tummy! Get'em while they're hot!
They're out of Soylent Red again? Where are the People Scoopers? I know that Fukushima killed the Oceans. Which way to the euthanasia clinic. This is just...too much.