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China's Reaction to the US Government Shutdown - Gimme Some!
Posted at: Capitalistexploits.at
The best investors I know place their bets according to probabilities. It's been over a decade since I moved my life and my capital to the far east. The fundamentals were too important to ignore, and ultimately the fundamentals lead to probabilities.
The US government had a plan to counter the rapidly growing dominance of China in the Asia Pacific region. The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) was Washington's grand plan to push through a 12 nation trade pact. This was part of a broader “Pivot to Asia” policy unveiled back in 2011.
The APEC and ASEAN summits were to be Washington's chance to push forward and become a bigger player in Asia. The reasons are obvious. The US wants to enmesh itself more deeply into Asia, the fastest-growing economic region in the world today.
Furthermore, Washington wishes to counter the rapidly growing influence of both Russia, but especially China throughout what is the largest emerging market region in the world today.
Image courtesy of Patdollard.com
Alas it was not to be. Instead Obama was grounded from playing with the other kids and forced to stay home, presiding instead over squabbling bureaucrats, all the while trying to keep Obamacare alive, and the debt ceiling from crashing down on his presidency.
As embarrassing as his presidency has been thus far, and to be sure it has been incredibly embarrassing, losing Obamacare AND defaulting on the US's debt would be...well, his Opus!
Instead of attending the APEC summit, and the ASEAN summit which follows closely on its heels, Obama sent his "brother from another mother", the increasingly inept and politically sterile, John “it was a rhetorical statement” Kerry.
Anyone who has spent any length of time in Asia and done business here knows the unspoken rule. “Face” is extremely important. Failing to show up for an important meeting and sending a "lesser" in your place is considered insulting and rude. Little will likely be said in public about this, but the repercussions are typically far less subtle. Rest assured business deals will continue to be struck...just expect these to
increasingly exclude Washington.
Obama's policy of “Pivot Asia” rests on increasing military presence in the region, beginning with a much vaunted 2,500 marines to be stationed in Northern Australia by 2017. I find it interesting that the “pivot Asia” policy is led by military deployment.
This "investment" will cost $1.6 billion, and that's just to build housing for the marines. If previous government "projected costs" are anything to go by, this expense will likely balloon. One does have to wonder how barracks for 2,500 marines can possibly cost $1.6 billion (for those without a calculator handy, that's $640,000 PER MARINE!). I hope those are damn nice barracks Mr. Obama! Oh, you poor US taxpayers. When is enough going to be enough?
But, fear not...the debt ceiling will be raised to accommodate for this...and much, much more.
When one considers investing or buying a business it's obvious that in order to be more profitable you need to curtail expenses as much as possible while generating more revenues at the same time. Common sense stuff,
right?
While Washington's strategy involves spending money (the military doesn't actually produce, they consume - unless you count blowing things up so friends of the politicos at Halliburton and Bechtel can rebuild it all with taxpayer dollars), which does more to antagonize the locals than bring willing reciprocal trade, we watch China leading with investment and business relationships.
Last year when traveling through Laos, China's influence was exceptionally notable. The same is true in Cambodia, where some months back we held our last member Meet-Up.
Up in Siem Reap, Cambodia's answer to the pyramids, where I spoke with hoteliers, developers and tourism operators China's influence is all present. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that increasingly Cambodia and Laos, and even Vietnam are becoming "client states" of Beijing.
It's curious, but I have yet to see Chinese soldiers on the streets in Asia, but finding Chinese companies contracted to build roads, hotels, ports, pipelines and the like is increasingly like shooting fish in a barrel.
To put some colour to the size of the investments being made by China, net investment in the ASEAN region during 2012 surged 52% to $4.42 billion, and it continues to rise. Chinese investment in Vietnam alone rocketed 147% during 2012.
So what has happened recently while America has been "closed for business"?
China's predominant foreign policy has been cutting business deals, while the US policy has been one of military deployment followed by pressuring trade deals. Reception to the latter, not surprisingly, is increasingly being viewed as one-sided and not a win-win. Many of these trade deals have not come to fruition. I wonder why?
I provide two quick examples below, since sadly it would likely take up too much of you, our readers precious time to read them all...and there are plenty!
- APEC summit - China pledged to boost trade with ASEAN to a mammoth US$1 trillion by
2020. They are already the largest trading partner in the region. They will partake in mega-projects such as the construction of the ambitious 90,000-hectare dam in West Java. - US$30 billion worth of deals in mining and port construction - Contracts with the Indonesian president, Susilo Yudhoyono, were secured for Chinese companies to build the long-overdue Jakarta monorail project.
I suspect the ASEAN summit will likely produce a smorgasbord of similar deals being cut. This can only be seen as an epic
failure on the part of the United States and simply yet more evidence of the movement of trade, power and capital from the West to the East. European countries hardly featured at all, with Russia and China taking
the limelight.
Both the ASEAN and APEC summits were seen to be an opportunity for Washington to mend and try to resurrect talks on the TPP, which have for 3 years now led to precious little, and with increasing resistance from many countries to what have been seen as belligerent demands from Washington for unprecedented access to domestic Asian markets.
I think Carl Baker, director of the Pacific Forum at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Hawaii, summed it up appropriately when he said:
"Even if the administration could push through some agreement on the TPP, it's very unlikely there is going to be legislative success getting that through based on the acrimony that exists."
"...On the commercial side (of the pivot), there seems to be more rhetoric than action."
- Chris
"This is the United States of America, we’re not some banana republic. This is not a deadbeat nation. We don’t run out on our tab. We're the world's bedrock investment, the entire world looks to us to make sure the world economy is stable. We can’t just not pay our bills." - Barack H. Obama
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Any sane person would be upset if they were forced to spend time with the Prince of Ketchup. Is Kerry's face turning into a catcher's mitt or is it just my imagination?
One does have to wonder how barracks for 2,500 marines can possibly cost $1.6 billion (for those without a calculator handy, that's $640,000 PER MARINE!).
Hillary[ous]: Barrack cost is $640.000 PER MARINE :))
The private banking parasites have so drained America that it teeters on the edge of collapse, yet rather than focus on the problem, the US plans to set up armed bases around Asia. Dumb and dumber!
all depends on which side you're looking at...
i think that in their mind (TPTB) are doing everything according to their plans
U.S.S.A. = Banana Republic
Amerika the Slave
Yeah, just remember forever ever: "We have the greatest value, the American Exceptionalism!"
The world became modern while the oligarchs took the United States of America into the dark ages.
Well... I am starting to sound like a broken record on this, but this government has no trade intentions just military ones...
A. US has surrounded Russia and China with an anti missile screen...
B. Currency is in the toilet... military is rapidly approaching use it or lose it status.
C. Russia and especially China are gaining on US military, and I am certain both would like another five years to prepare.
D. Israel has just about run out the clock on Iran.
E. Obama administration, under direction from its handlers, came close to starting WWIII in Syria recently, and Syria is still hot... Seems this may be the match point despite all of little Kim's rhetoric coming out of North Korea.
F. US population reaching boiling point... Suspect PTB would prefer not facing an internal revolt midst a collapsing currency war...
G. Last but not least, no nation in history has built a world class military and not sent it out to conquer... we will not be the exception.
Buckle up tight lads and lasses... we are in for a bumpy ride...
The unsaid premise here is that the psychopaths who run D.C. and Pentagon may think that they can win and survive the all out NUKE wars with the presence of the ABM.
do you think Obomber would stay in DC waiting for an ICBM?
they all have personal underground facilities.
Think about all those single-use drones with hollow points the govt has bought. Some talk about the FEMA camps and coffins. Think they won't turn on us? Think again - just need a cause or an excuse. But, we're armed to the teeth - probably 300 million weapons. They would start taking us out and who would stop them? I hope there's a lot of real patriots still willing to die for the cause, 'cause the cause is just around the corner.
I remember the time GW blew chips in some official meeting. Most probably thought it was some Texas form of portraying respect....
But really, with all the high tech stuff that is crammed into the AF1, the Obamster could have just gone over there for 2 hours.... without being disconnected.
Now the morons from Texas would have blamed him for wasting tax payer money,, but now they are going to say he has missed the meeting so he could do his golf game....
Welcome of Obama's USA where "tourists" are treated as "terrorists", I assume. Maybe they just can't spell?
This should break your heart as armed Parked Rangers zoom in on Seniors who are actually foreign Tourists: "Gestapo"
http://www.newburyportnews.com/local/x1442580373/Gestapo-tactics-meet-senior-citizens-at-Yellowstone
Did a little search and found that Park Rangers are now arming up to Military level.
WTF?
Ho hum
I heard that Park Ranger SWAT Snipers took out Yogi Bear with a single round at 1400 yards in the neck. The usual: picnic basket theft.
Boo-boo is still at large. He is not armed, but apparently has extensive knowledge of IED construction after his three tours in Afghanistan with Blackwater. DHS reports he may have access to large stockpiles of technical-grade, prilled ammonium nitrate hid in tree stumps throughout the park. Lybian sources confirm he as been a big buyer of surplus claymores.
No more nice Ranger and Andy Griffith or Mayberry RFD; it's AR-15 and shoot first ask questions later time!
This is how a fascist police state gets started; pay attention kids!
Le steenkin french have been in west africa for 100 years and built next to fuck all to endear themselves to the locals.
What they have built though are mines to funnel the mineral resources out the door, keeping the lights on in gay Paris.
WONT last forever though, the natives are very restless.
The "2,500 marines to be stationed in Darwin:
A friend who worked on this project, in passing, made mention that the facilities have been built to accomodate ~15,000 marines. I haven't been there but the friend has no axe to grind. Just more US and government lies and therefore his observation is acceptable (to me), based on the normal expectation of government lying. All government lie as they are so ph*cking incompetent, they cannot govern any other way. This fact may help the math. I have read that at present there are no marines in Darwin - but there are many other hives for this feral throughout Australia.
http://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2011/03/operation-death-star-australis.html
Nobody sane (except politicians, bureaucrats and establishment economists) wants to do business with Americans anymore as it only attracts all the US bureaucracy and their frenzied wet-dream lawyers) imposing itself/themselves on you and your affairs as they scream "Terrorist" at every ph$cking thing that moves. Find a "terrorist" and you will find a dozen Americans screaming and running around in a frenzy. Mad dogs.
And everything is for sale in Australia as this is the culture of our long standing jailers, er political establishment (Australia remains a penal Colony of the UK to this day), who would sell their Mothers for the price of a beer, so China and all others with the ready, are grabbing all that they can get; particularly agriculture and mining lands; nothing new here but it has been reported that these maniacs, morons and maggot that make up our "government have openly" declared their eagerness to sign off on the #TPP (probably in the hope to extradite most of us to the USA for being "terrorists" - obviously to the American's everybody is a "terrorist" especially republicans). Just part of the everyday 24/7 recursive scamming of the public purse. New Zealand's PM Key is also slobbering and groverling to the Americans in his sickening eargernesss to sign up for the #TPP.
Sickening.
Whatever, I'll be dead soon so I don't give a flying ph*ck but it is really depressing to see what was once a great Nation of hope and freedom being morphed into the Bolshevik Stalin State by those the same ilk. Obviously, none of these morons had an education nor read history; sad really.
Ho hum
15k marines compared to how many million chinese? Let's get real here.
Oh, they've read their history and were well educated at the school of how to be a dictator without having to die in office and the whole thing is legal-ish-not-really-not-really-legal-at-all-pretty-darn-illegal-actually-bordering-on-crimes-against-humanity.
At least with true socialists and marxists and such, they really would believe they are doing it for the betterment of all. Not the people, we the people, put in charge now. These people are simply tyrants and theives who are out to make themselves and their cronies rich and more powerful, just like a gangster taking over territory and solidifying his hold by extorting every mom and pop shop in the neighborhood. They will set the world on fire so long as they get what they want.
On the positive side, it may be happening soon. Or, maybe the wheel just won't fall off for a while or they just aren't ready to pull the trigger. Maybe they can't contain popular outrage or maybe they can. Who knows?
The thing I see is that the main stream seems to think it will be a catastrophe if no deal is made in the US. The alts seem to dismiss this as politcal brinksmanship or even theatre and the end will come when interest rates hit 5%-ish and so much of the money spent is simply for interest that other things have to be eaten like military and services - the market always wins theory.
Castro has keep it going in Cuba for a long time. One would think a global mafia could manage to tamp out fires and use diversions and strawmen for quite a while. In the end, we're all dead anyway so what does it matter now.
The U.S. is cleverly building up it's forces in AU for the inevitable sneak attack on New Zealand. It's in need of some serious regime changin.
Hang on for a little longer, Islamic Kiwi Liberation Brigade brothers. Soon, your infidel leaders will be delivered to hell by a blanket of submarine-launched Tomahawks.
Sounds like the Quebecois Separtists from "Infinite Jest"
Soooo true on what we've become in this "Land of the Free" cough, sigh "Home of the Brave"
Nice write-up.
"ain't none of 'em free, ain't 200 of 'em brave." -- red traphagen on hearing the national anthem sung before a baseball game ("the southpaw" mark harris) (best baseball novel ever)
Indonesia is getting a monorail ...and the guys who honor the men that liberated Indonesia from the WWII Japanese are getting locked up in the US for tresspassing at a memorial.
USA...The Facepalm Nation.
A monorail to mecca.
Dont these people see the real trade policy of the Chinese? I take all your raw material and send you back crappy stuff, plus you get tens of thousands of Chinese citizens now living in your counrty taking over small businesses, oh you also will lose any local manufacturing from the increase of crappy Chinese stuff.
hmmm ... On the other hand the US offers, "We'll bomb, drone, and strafe you brownskins!"
Tough choice.
I've been saying for the past five years to anyone who would listen:
Start learning Mandarian.
That was my mantra after I moved to Hong Kong in 1990, and I am still in Asia
I would also add that my home for the past 10 years has been Thailand, where the links with China have mushroomed. A Thai neighbour in the auto business now spends months at a time there.
Check out the biggest Asian insult to America, ever; Apec 2013 photo at http://www.jsmineset.com/
.
Beware a petulant spoiled rotten child's scorn on prozac! Especially when it has "burned all of it's bridges" and can do nothing else but threaten.
Huh? You mean AIPAC is on Prozac? They must be using the fake Chinese imported stuff.
The poser has folks longing for the second rate Bush.
With or without debt limit, this is sunset America. It is becoming more obvious by the day although I am not sure we'll like what comes next.
What makes you think this wasn't planned? Its all bullshit. FU CFR
America voted for a bunch of lightweights. I hang my head low for many; however Samantha Powers at the UN is an embarassment. And I thought Bush was bad, unfuching UNBELIEVEABLE!!!!!!
Indeed, nothing like Abe in Japan who once fell sick under pressure and Hollande in France who looks exactly as stupid as he is. Plato was right, we get what we deserve for not taking politics seriously.
What most folks do not understand is O'Shithead's main mission: Destroy America from within both in the Worlds eyes as well as domestically. He has accomplished his mission so well, imho.
The sad thing is, he will continue to incite internal strife and destroy America as a whole as well as city by city.
Then his stormtroopers will come in and clean up the non compliant citizens by any means possible. Resist and it is death first questions later by the Blueblood storm troopers who will cover for each other.
if no agreement can be reached, I shall declare a State of Continuity of Government
in which case I become dictator for life, etc etc
not a damn thing you can do about it, either.
are you listening to me Mister Boner!
hugs,
topus
ps we are ready to roll out a replacement for the naysaying zh.
it will be called forwardguidance or howCanWeHelp or whatShouldIDo or
whatever
you'll find it already installed as your favorite site
enjoy! and .. eat your vegetables!
I'm OK with the vegetables part.