Lies, Damn Lies and the EU Confiscation Of Greek Sovereignty Masked As The Bailout That Never Happened

Reggie Middleton's picture

As per Bloomberg: IMF says Greece will miss bailout target

The International Monetary Fund published a report predicting that Greece's 2014 budget surplus will fall 0.4 percentage points short of the 1.5 percent gross domestic product mark required by the terms of the country's international bailout. Greece was previously thought to be on track to meet the surplus target, but the forecasts were overoptimistic.

Get the hell outta here! Optimistic! Really? From the IMF???!!! As I channel my post from 2010, aptly titled "Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse!"

image005.png image005.pngimage005.pngimage005.png

Notice how dramatically off the market the IMF has been, skewered HEAVILY to the optimistic side. Now, notice how aggressively the IMF has downwardly revsied their forecasts to still end up widlly optimistic. image018.pngimage018.pngimage018.pngimage018.png

Ever since the beginning of this crisis, IMF estimates of government balance have been just as bad...


... The EU/EC has proven to be no better, and if anything is arguably worse!... If the IMF was wrong, what in the world does that make the EC/EU?

The EC forecasts have been just as bad, if not much, much worse in nearly all of the forecasting scenarios we presented. Hey, if you think tha's bad, try taking a look at what the govenment of Greece has done with these fairy tale forecasts, as excerpted from the blog post "Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe", Prodi Says - I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire!...

Alas, I digress. Back to the Bloomberg/IMF snippet...

Tax collection is sagging; Greece is still in recession; and privatization is proceeding much slower than planned.

But this was quite evident last year as Greece failed to achieve Primary Balance and was slipping ever so farther away from that rather lofty (at least to most of continental Europe on a real, applied basis) goal. Don't say you didn't know, because I told you so, and on a European broadcaster as well...

And back to our snippet of the day...

The Greek finance ministry immediately responded to the new IMF projection, saying the government would do whatever was necessary to achieve a surplus of 1.5 percent GDP: cut spending, step up tax collection or both.

Oh yeah, that will work just fine. Cut off your legs to reduce your weight and drag so you can run faster. Does anyone in these financial ministries know anything about FiNANCE???!!! 

Further cuts, however, may be politically untenable: The country is already in turmoil over the government's austerity measures. Meanwhile, failure to reach fiscal targets may delay further aid from both the IMF and the euro area. A new Greek crisis is a distinct possibility for next year.

Uhhh. PSSST!!! But, we haven't finsighed the "OLD Greek crisis" yet, you know the one I warned you about in 2010! From my 2010 article for subscribers, Greek Debt Restructuring Analysis - Professional, I excerpt as follows:

In 2012, Der Speigel ran an article stating what I told my subscribers for the two years previous - Greece was in a hole that it simply couldn't crawl out of. From the piece aptly titled "Greece Fulfills Its BoomBustBlog Derived Destiny - Shows This Time Really Isn't All That Different After All!!!":

I believe I was one of the very few to declare Greece a foregone default in February 2010 (I Think It’s Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall and then with with more specificity a month later As I Explicitly Forewarned, Greece Is Well On Its Way To Default, and Previously Published Numbers Were Waaaayyy Too Optimistic!).
By the 2nd quarter of 2010 I was one of the very few to clearly and articulately detail exactly how Greece would default with specific structures in play- What is the Most Likely Scenario in the Greek Debt Fiasco? Restructuring Via Extension of Maturity Dates. Due to a few institutions who were skeptical, I attempted to make it a bit more real - A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina.

Well, Greece defaulted according to plan, despite all of the "people in the know" saying otherwise -Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! - from government officials tothe EC and IMF - Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse! Even after the default, I made clear that this wasn't over for Greece, for the default actually left Greece worse off fundamentally, not better. Go wonder... I know I did, reference the warning from 5 months ago:

This will be exacerbated by a re-default of the Greek debt that was designed to bail out the defaulted Greek debt. Why will this happen? Greece has severe, rigid structural
problems that simply cannot (and will not) be solved by throwing indebted liquidity at it. As a matter of fact, the additional debt simply exacerbates the problem - significantly! This was detailed in the post Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth!

..Subscribers can download my full thoughts on Greece's sustainability post bailout here - debt restructuring_maturity extension blog - March 2012. Professional and institutional subscribers should feel free to email me in order to receive a copy of the Greek restructuring model used to create these charts and come to these conclusions.

Despite extensive, self-defeating, harsh and punitive austerity measures that have combined with a lack of true economic stimulus, Greece has (to date) failed to achieve Primary Balance. For the non-economists in the audience, primary balance is the elimination of a primary deficit, yet the absence of a primary surplus, ex. the midpoint between deficit and surplus before taking into consideration interest payments.

Alas, I digress. Back to the der Spegiel article...

According to a preliminary troika report, the additional shortfalls are the result of lower than expected tax revenues due to the country's ongoing recession as well as a
privatization program which has not lived up to expectations. The troika plans to calculate the exact size of the shortfall when it returns to Athens at the beginning of next month.

I'm sorry, but I simply cannot resist. This article was posted on BoomBustBlog in July of 2011 - Greek Asset Sales Fall Short, As We Virtually Guaranteed They Would In Spring 2010.
In it I reviewed how the BoomBustBlog team detailed EXACTLY how bullshit the privatization plan was, in explicit detail - in the spring of 2010. THAT WAS MORE THAN TWO AND A HALF YEARS AGO, PEOPLE!!!
If a blog can have this much foresight, with this much specificity, than what does one make of this so-called troika??? As excerpted:

This is a tragic Greek comedy. Professional/institutional subscribers should reference the Greece Public Finances ProjectionsGreece Public Finances Projections 2010-03-15 11:33:27 694.35 Kb in its entirety.
For those who chose not to subscribe, I am posting excerpts from pages 5 and 6 from said document, don't read this while eating or drinking for fear of spitting up your lunch!

Any subscribers who would have went heavily bearish into these banks when I first commented on the would have done quite well:

Okay, I digress - yet again... With such excessive bullshit, one does tend to get thrown off track. Back to the der Spiegel excerpts...

The news of the potentially greater financing needs comes at a sensitive time for the country. Many in Europe, particularly in Germany, are losing their patience and there has been increased talk of the country leaving the common currency zone. Over the weekend, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble reiterated his skepticism of additional aid to Greece. "We can't put together yet another program," he said on Saturday, adding that it was irresponsible to "throw money into a bottomless pit."

Well, my friend, if you had that BoomBustBlog subscription, you would have known before you spent that first euro that Greece was a bottomless pit. Let me reiterated what I pasted up top... This situation will simply get worse, considerably worse. I demonstrated in the post The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That's Too Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media that anyone who purchased the last set of bailout bonds from Greece will simply lose their money as well (that's right, just like those who purchased the previous set) since Greece is still running deep in structural problems and can't afford the interest nor the principal on its borrowing. It's really that simple. And guess what? Anyone who dips new money into Greece now will suffer the EXACT same fate!

As excerpted from Greece Sneezes, The Euro Dies of Pneumonia! Yeah, Sounds Bombastic, Yet True!

Wait until a 2nd Greek default (virtually guaranteed as we supplied user downloadable models to see for yourself, the same model used to forecast the 1st default) mirrors history. Of the 181 yrs as a sovereign nation after gaining independence, Greece been in default 58 of them. Don't believe me! Check your history, or just read more BoomBustBlog - Sophisticated Ignorance Or Just A Very, Very Short Term Memory? Foolish Talk of German Bailouts Once Again...


Greece's default will hit an already bank NPA laden Spain quite hard: The Spain Pain Will Not Wane: Continuing the Contagion Saga and ditto with Italy "As We Assured Clients Two Years Ago, Italy's Riding The Broken Promise Express To Restructuring". Once Italy gets hit, the true bank runs will start as socialist France (the so-called half of the EU anchor) loses control of its banking system. Reference "As The French Bank Runs....": 

Saturday, 23 July 2011 The Anatomy Of A European Bank Run: Look At The Banking Situation BEFORE The Run Occurs!: I detail how I see modern bank runs unfolding


Will Greece Set Off the Pan-European Sovereign Debt Crisis?

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no more banksters's picture

IMF new tactics: It is better to appear unreliable than to let people understand that you serve specific interests

RazvanM's picture

"Divide et impera". This was applied a couple thousands years ago and is still applied today. Now by US, against Europe.

The last time I checked, California should have been declared bankrupt. Yet, it didn't. There are many other states in US in the same situation. Yet the things are cool and the US press is quiet. The conclusion is simple: the demise of a state is not easy to predict and there is not a clear path for that.


Greece, wasn't Goldman Sachs the one bank that provided consultancy and helped their gov to hide debts and to package some shady deals that proved to be huge scams? Guess what? This information was leaked then by US press at the start of financial crisis and helped create a self fulfilling profecy and a domino effect.

Italy, wasn't Goldman Sachs the one providing consultancy the same way they did for Greece? Funny how the leaks into the press appeared again at the height of the financial crisis.

And Goldman Sachs is very well, thank you - pocketed the result of the sting and was able to bet against Europe and then make use of the inside information by leaking it to the press.

ebworthen's picture

Nice to see you get back into the meat and potatoes Reggie.

Good solid common sense reasoning - and if the EU, the Euro, and the ECB weren't based on circular reasoning, hollow promises, and debt serfdom - they might listen.

Umh's picture

Homogeneous societies tend to work better since the laws and conventions developed together. When laws and to some degree conventions are imposed from outside of a group or by nonhomogeneous groups they are less likely to be abided by.

thisandthat's picture

Explain the US, then.

0b1knob's picture

I said it before and I'll say it again.  The end game of this debt process will be that Greece and other debtor nations will become literal colonies.   Much like the way Mexico was taken over by Maximillian to force the payment of debt to France.

Neocolonialism wil become REAL colonialism.

shovelhead's picture

Colonize the Greeks? Lol.

That would be about as profitable as colonizing the crazy ladies house filled with 87 cats.

Better bring a shovel.

another_brick_in_the_wall's picture

Greece is already a colony. Personally I doubt if it ever was a truly an independent country. Nowadays you need no army to colonize a country if you control the economy through the government, banks and the people's currency.

Ghordius's picture

+1 and lots of pills against headaches

logicalman's picture

For nothing??!!

What do you mean - it is to enrich the criminal banksters at the expense of Joe Public.

Coming soon to a country near you.

GeezerGeek's picture

Hey! Sheeple! You don't need no stinking sovereignty!


Peter Pan's picture

By the way Reggie......well done.

The cretins at the IMF etc wouldn't be able to predict the outcome of a one horse race let alone anything to do with Greece.

NuYawkFrankie's picture

Two Bailouts and a Funeral

Peter Pan's picture

Hopefully two bailouts and an uprising.

Peter Pan's picture

What sovereignty?

Those traitorous scum called politicians have already sold themselves and by extension the whole of Greece.

Why else did the TROIKA not push for a reduction in the number of parliamentarians? Because they were needed? No. Because the TROIKA wanted the to agree to everything put in front of them which they have.

If the US was subjected even to 25% of the austerity faced by Greece it would have keeled over by now.

Ghordius's picture

the reduction of the number of parliamentarians has been repeatedly asked by several Greek parties, since the 80's

Greece has 10m citizens and "300, the number" was chosen for historic reasons. you do the math

Peter Pan's picture

Exactly, the 300 are chosen for historical reasons......not for practical reasons.

Those fools fancy themselves to be the offspring of the 300 Spartans.

They are nothing more than the offspring of 300 ......

By the way I have done the math and the US would have to have over 9000 parliamentarians in Congress to match Greece on a per head of population basis.

thisandthat's picture

And if you take referendums into account, you have a 1:1 representation ratio... and in what is that a bad thing, again?

Ghordius's picture

how about an assembly where the quorum was 6'000 out of a citizen body of 10'000? ;-) see Ecclesia_(ancient_Athens)

Spartans? don't know, they were always a special group of Greeks. starts with the fact that their economy was fully in the hands of women, and their women were allowed to do nearly everything they wanted

SAT 800's picture

I always like the fact that the women had lesbian orgies and indoctrinated the men into the idea that it was their job to go off and get killed; makes sense in a way.

Ghordius's picture

"Two bailouts, a default and a half later, it should be obvious that Greece was stripped of its sovereignty for nothing"

and there might be other twelve bailouts and other six defaults, so?

Reggie, you really make me wonder if for some reasons Americans have a completely different concept of sovereignty than us europeans

Greece does not allow the others to help in raising taxes or reform certain parts of it's state

Greece has still a lot of options. Among them leaving the EUR or defaulting. And eventually reaching a balanced budget will increase those options

Meanwhile it has an elected parliament, it's own laws, it's own courts, it's own army, airforce and navy

and from a Greek national perspective, it might too early to commit to any other course - including reviving it's age-old friendship to Russia

Greece has not "sacrificed it's own sovereignty"

it's sovereign people is committed to the EUR and to the way to balanced budgets, albeit in a very Greek fashion. and we are not going to throw them out

taraxias's picture

The usual Ghordius bullshit.


Greece can NO LONGER leave the euro on their own valition. Replacing bonds written under Greek law, with bonds written ubder British law saw to that. Ghordius knows NOTHING about what is going on in Greece, other than repeating the bullshit the EU bureaucrats fed to him. 

Ghordius's picture

"bullshit the EU bureaucrats fed to him"

I own my shit, Taraxias. And my shit differs from their bullshit. Look at my first comment again. Do they predict "as many bailouts as necessary?"

Ghordius's picture

I'm defending the FACT that Greece is still sovereign here

and you come with the difference between "Greek Law" and "British Law". at this point I do have to ask: what do you understand under this "sovereign" word?

sovereigns default, if they wish so. sovereigns are after all the holders of the "Ultima Ratio" principle. take *any* example in history. start with the "A", Argentina

the point is: if *they* wish so, not if *you* wish so

Peter Pan's picture

Ghordius you are right that Greece has a lot of options, but which of them have she exercised? NONE

Its own laws? You mean the ones that are never applied?

It's own courts? You mean the ones that are years behind schedule?

It's own navy etc? You mean the ones that allow Turkish navy boats to virtually sunbake on their beaches?

A primary surplus? You mean the one they are trying to achieve by not paying their bills by withholding payments for over a year to many service providers?

Yes, Greece has options but it's politicians have no balls. Therefore, no options to speak of.

Ghordius's picture

enforcement of laws in Greece was always a bit... tricky. Greece is after all a nation-state where you should spell the first word in capital, bold and then the second word in the smallest font you can find. so? I find it endearing. A bit the opposite of Britons, imho

are you seriously expecting order in the British or German way in Greece? what's next? that they become culturally like you? seriously? well, we could go and impose our Church on them. but wait, we already did it once, and it did not hold

and what's your trouble with the Turkish navy? up to not long ago it was the Turks who had to fear a Greek invasion, not the other way around

every time I crossed that dividing line I was harassed by Greeks, not Turks

Peter Pan's picture

Greeks are capable of a great deal of order. You have only to look at Greek immigrants in other parts of the world where they are on time, work, pay taxes and do not push.

Is that possibly because they found themselves in a system which was backed by laws and penalties that were ENFORCED?

That is what Greeks are missing. Laws that are enforced and penalties that are imposed.

My trouble with the Turkish navy is that it represents a government that is guilty of having invaded Cyprus, of having desecrated churches, refused to recognise let alone apologise for the genocide of Armenians, Assyrians and Greeks, of having terrorised its Greek population over the I need to say more?.....probably not....after all they have a bad attitude wherever they go. But I will grant them one thing...they have a superb lobbying department.

Ghordius's picture

imho you are perfectly right, with "That is what Greeks are missing. Laws that are enforced and penalties that are imposed."
yet they have to do that *themselves*. when *they* decide
which brings us back to... sovereignty

are you sure you ever listened to *both* sides of the Cyprus war?