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Hockey Sticks of the Day

hedgeless_horseman's picture




 

Three years ago, on 11/17/2010, I wrote this comment on Zerohedge:

Hey man, I am peak oil aware.  Check my history on this blog. 
Nevertheless, you do know that producers in Eagle Ford are using
horizontal drilling and fracking technology to produce oil, not gas

They are having success all the way up to Dallas county.  I know this
only buys a few months of global demand, but Kunstlers statement re
shale requiring huge investment is false.  This I do know, and with this
knowledge has come some excellent returns.

Today, regular unleaded gasoline is $2.85/gallon here in Texas.   As a follow up to my article from nearly one year ago, Fracking responsible for the big boost in US crude production?, I once again direct your attention to the following chart from the EIA, updated 10/30/13.  The Texas and North Dakota hockey sticks are very impressive.

I am no geologist or petroleum engineer, but one might expect fracking to lead to similiar crude oil production growth in more difficult operating environments such as the GOM and Alaska.

In similiar news, here is a photo from The Houston Chronicle of XOM's new headquarters that is now being constructed just south of The Woodlands, Texas. What do they know?

 

APC is also close to completing it's second office tower just up the street in The Woodlands.  What do they know?

 

Happy Motoring!

 

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Tue, 11/05/2013 - 20:37 | 4124958 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The Red Queen reference clearly flew over your head....

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 21:00 | 4125061 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

From The Oil Drum (Red Queen)

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:11 | 4123616 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

What goes up hard.....comes down hard.

Look at housing and stock charts from the 90's on.....

Besides......it's easy to scrape the sides of the toilet.  But try making that energy poor (compared to light sweet crude) shit as cheap to refine into derivatives as light sweet crude.

You just have a surplus of more expensive to produced energy that goes into a global pool which we are still a small minnow.

Plus....look at this chart for some perspective.....still have a long way to go to reach back to the peak in the 70's....and once again...that was not only cheaper to produce and make deritvatives but was produced with dollars that were worth a little more than today.

Good luck with that whole energy independent thingy.....

http://grist.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/oil-production2.png

 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:17 | 4123638 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

What goes up hard.....comes down hard.

Trees don't grow to the sky?

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:44 | 4123748 Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

"...This I do know, and with this knowledge has come some excellent returns."

What would you recommend now for some of those excellent returns?  Still hot shottin?

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:37 | 4123710 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Every tree has a limit.  Never seen one make it to space.

And yes.....when the big ones fall......they fall hard.  But unlike well production....when they do fall....I can still use them for fuel and heat.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:56 | 4123723 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

We're energy independent when I can afford to drive this again......

http://www.chryslerinthenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/plymouth_roa...

 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 17:37 | 4124255 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

...Or this:

 

http://www.autowp.ru/pictures/d/dodge/charger/dodge_charger_r_t_440_magn...

 

I did, however, buy THIS model last week; '79 with 22,000 original miles:::

 

http://www.carpassion.com/garage_images/91470/5615.jpg

 

Better than my R75/6

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 18:24 | 4124474 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Good on ya' mate for the BMW.  I'm getting a '98 Suzuki Savage 650cc one lunger.  I know they sound a bit like a lawnmower on takeoff but nothing a cherry bomb muffler can't take care of......but LOVE that long stroke "blop" "blop" "blop" and the mileage is sweet.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:53 | 4123575 Not_Sure
Not_Sure's picture

In 1973, most of what was pulled (pushed?) out of Ghawar was crude. Now what is pulled out is 70% water/30% crude. And the clock keeps ticking.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 17:02 | 4124093 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

100% water goes in the hole and 30% oil and 70% water comes out.  What is the EROEI?

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:49 | 4123564 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

How about a chart of high ranking officers purged from the military.   Talk about a hockey stick.

http://www.wnd.com/2013/11/purge-surge-obama-fires-another-commander/

It Begins!  Obama talks openly about a third term.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/other-races/189217-obama-ive-got-one-more-campaign-in-me

 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 17:41 | 4124283 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Bath House is a sick twisted fuck

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 16:23 | 4123931 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Too bad you don't know what "it" means.

Are you really that stupid, or just trolling for the lazy suckers today?

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 21:45 | 4125207 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

"trolling for the lazy suckers"

And I caught one!

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 19:25 | 4124678 g'kar
g'kar's picture

ob1 is off topic but not wrong.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:47 | 4123550 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

But...but...peak oil is a DONE DEAL.   Frackting is a flash in the pan!   All the Tyler Durdens say so!  (sarc)

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:57 | 4123585 zaphod42
zaphod42's picture

Well, you might start with:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-10/u-dot-s-dot-shale-oil-boom-may-not-last-as-fracking-wells-lack-staying-power

Fracing is great - it will help out for a short time.  Problem is that 1) best sites frac'd first; 2) 60-80% first year depletion; and, 3) cost per well is very high, especially for a 4-5 year deal! 

But, if you have loads of money to throw away, go ahead.  Invest accordingly. 

Of course, the problem with frac'd gas is that it all comes at once, and drives the price down; wonder why so few gas wells are being attempted today?  The gas from the first wave is being sold at a dead loss.

Enjoy the future. 

Drill, baby, drill.

Craig

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 20:56 | 4125049 Taint Boil
Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:11 | 4123618 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

Then short all the oil companies who are involved in frackting.   Should be easy money when it all collapses 5 years from now.  Dare you...

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:33 | 4123701 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Barring something like a societal collapse or having all of our oil wells bombed, oil companies are going to continue to be profitible until EROEI gets closer to 1.  It's not going to be the oil companies that suffer because of all of the hype surrounding fracking.  It is going to be your wallet.  The oil is there, it just costs a lot more to bring it up out of the ground than it did back when we first started to become dependant on oil.  We are so very dependant on oil for our current way of life that we'll pay for it.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:01 | 4123594 adr
adr's picture

Yep, the last steps to destroy America are being out in place. Until the dollar is actually destroyed, the top has made a lot of money, which they have converted into real assets.

The unsuspecting public will be left holding a worthless bag. The dollar will be destroyed along with the entire middle class. The majority of Americans will be turned into slave labor to supply the rest of the world with energy. If you resist, there's a bullet waiting for you.

If you think the rule of law will protect you, it won't. Thanks to the TPP the corporation driving your face into the dirt won't have to abide by US law because they will be am international corporation subject only to what was spelled out in the trade agreement.

You think you are safe in a Union? Ha, you were used as a patsy to elect people plotting your destruction.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 17:46 | 4124301 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

"Hey, guido, have you used the new showers at the Union Hall Bath House bought for us?"

"Not yet, Louie, but I seen a lotta guys go in and not come out. Must have a sauna and a helluva water heater!"

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 13:44 | 4123300 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

So what is the rate of depletion in regard to the current rate of extraction...?  And unlike most who are peak oil aware, you have prepped relatively well, Hedgeless - hopefully this is a call out to all others that they MIGHT have some added time to prepare for what are the most likely scenarios (both geologically and mathematically) down the line.

That most do not have any idea what their true needs are (until too late) is the most glaring failure of our "civilization."  Dollars are make-believe; energy (calories, thermal, joules, etc) is reality. 

 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:35 | 4123502 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Dollars are make-believe; energy (calories, thermal, joules, etc) is reality." - Correct, so are the calories invested to liberate those calories.  The Texans I know have been waiting for this for quite some time.  If ever the rocky mountain states where to do their own thing, now is the time.  I am sure texas will sell Jew York and D.C. oil in exchange for gold.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 19:22 | 4124665 g'kar
g'kar's picture

Makes me wonder when Obama's EPA will swoop in and stop all this wealth creation, to save the planet for the children of course..

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:14 | 4123425 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the Gwar in Saudi Arabia supposedly ran out of oil in 1973. It's been producing 3 plus million barrels of oil a day...pretty much every day...ever since. "it's not the oil but what you do with it" and I ain't talking "making gasoline."

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:33 | 4123700 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Making shit up I see...

BTW, it is Ghawar

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 18:02 | 4124385 Landrew
Landrew's picture

He also forgot to mention,  Saudis  now pump 100 BARRELS of SALT water into the reserve to get head pressure to pump! IN Texas they are doing the same. 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 16:01 | 4123831 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

RIght you are......because THIS is Gwar.......

http://thefrontrowreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/GWAR.jpg

 

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