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We’re In The Most Dangerous Moment Since the Cuban Missile Crisis
Scientists Warn of Extreme Risk
We’ve long said that the greatest short-term threat to humanity is from the fuel pools at Fukushima.
The Japanese nuclear agency recently green-lighted the removal of the spent fuel rods from Fukushima reactor 4′s spent fuel pool. The operation is scheduled to begin this month.
The head of the U.S. Department of Energy correctly notes:
The success of the cleanup also has global significance. So we all have a direct interest in seeing that the next steps are taken well, efficiently and safely.
If one of the pools collapsed or caught fire, it could have severe adverse impacts not only on Japan … but the rest of the world, including the United States. Indeed, a Senator called it a national security concern for the U.S.:
The radiation caused by the failure of the spent fuel pools in the event of another earthquake could reach the West Coast within days. That absolutely makes the safe containment and protection of this spent fuel a security issue for the United States.
Hiroaki Koide – a nuclear scientist working at the University of Kyoto – says:
I’m worried about whether Tepco can treat all the 1,331 [spent-fuel] assemblies without any problem and how long it will take.
Award-winning scientist David Suzuki says that Fukushima is terrifying, Tepco and the Japanese government are lying through their teeth, and Fukushima is “the most terrifying situation I can imagine”.
Suzuki notes that reactor 4 is so badly damaged that – if there’s another earthquake of 7 or above – the building could come down. And the probability of another earthquake of 7 or above in the next 3 years is over 95%.
Suzuki says that he’s seen a paper that says that if – in fact – the 4th reactor comes down, “it’s bye bye Japan, and everyone on the West Coast of North America should evacuate. Now if that’s not terrifying, I don’t know what is.”
The Telegraph reports:
The operator of Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant … will begin a dry run of the procedure at the No. 4 reactor, which experts have warned carries grave risks.
***
“Did you ever play pick up sticks?” asked a foreign nuclear expert who has been monitoring Tepco’s efforts to regain control of the plant. “You had 50 sticks, you heaved them into the air and than had to take one off the pile at a time.
“If the pile collapsed when you were picking up a stick, you lost,” he said. “There are 1,534 pick-up sticks in a jumble in top of an unsteady reactor 4. What do you think can happen?
“I do not know anyone who is confident that this can be done since it has never been tried.”
ABC notes:
One slip-up in the latest step to decommission Japan’s crippled Fukushima nuclear plant could trigger a “monumental” chain reaction, experts warn.
***
Experts around the world have warned … that the fuel pool is in a precarious state – vulnerable to collapsing in another big earthquake.
Yale University professor Charles Perrow wrote about the number 4 fuel pool this year in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
“This has me very scared,” he told the ABC.
“Tokyo would have to be evacuated because [the] caesium and other poisons that are there will spread very rapidly.
Perrow also argues:
Conditions in the unit 4 pool, 100 feet from the ground, are perilous, and if any two of the rods touch it could cause a nuclear reaction that would be uncontrollable. The radiation emitted from all these rods, if they are not continually cool and kept separate, would require the evacuation of surrounding areas including Tokyo. Because of the radiation at the site the 6,375 rods in the common storage pool could not be continuously cooled; they would fission and all of humanity will be threatened, for thousands of years.
Former Japanese ambassador Akio Matsumura warns that – if the operation isn’t done right – this could one day be considered the start of “the ultimate catastrophe of the world and planet”:
(He also argues that removing the fuel rods will take “decades rather than months.)
Nuclear expert Arnie Gundersen and physician Helen Caldicott have both said that people should evacuate the Northern Hemisphere if one of the Fukushima fuel pools collapses. Gundersen said:
Move south of the equator if that ever happened, I think that’s probably the lesson there.
Harvey Wasserman wrote two months ago:
We are now within two months of what may be humankind’s most dangerous moment since the Cuban Missile Crisis.
***
Should the attempt fail, the rods could be exposed to air and catch fire, releasing horrific quantities of radiation into the atmosphere. The pool could come crashing to the ground, dumping the rods together into a pile that could fission and possibly explode. The resulting radioactive cloud would threaten the health and safety of all us.
***
A new fuel fire at Unit 4 would pour out a continuous stream of lethal radioactive poisons for centuries.
Former Ambassador Mitsuhei Murata says full-scale releases from Fukushima “would destroy the world environment and our civilization. This is not rocket science, nor does it connect to the pugilistic debate over nuclear power plants. This is an issue of human survival.”
Even Japan’s Top Nuclear Regulator Says that The Operation Carries a “Very Large Risk Potential”
Even the head of Japan’s nuclear agency is worried. USA Today notes:
Nuclear regulatory chairman Shunichi Tanaka, however, warned that removing the fuel rods from Unit 4 would be difficult because of the risk posed by debris that fell into the pool during the explosions.
“It’s a totally different operation than removing normal fuel rods from a spent fuel pool,” Tanaka said at a regular news conference. “They need to be handled extremely carefully and closely monitored. You should never rush or force them out, or they may break.”
He said it would be a disaster if fuel rods are pulled forcibly and are damaged or break open when dropped from the pool, located about 30 meters (100 feet) above ground, releasing highly radioactive material. “I’m much more worried about this than contaminated water,” Tanaka said
The same top Japanese nuclear official said:
The process involves a very large risk potential.
BBC reports:
A task of extraordinary delicacy and danger is about to begin at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power station.
***
One senior official told me: “It’s going to be very difficult but it has to happen.”
Why It’s Such a Difficult Operation
CNN notes that debris in the fuel pool might interfere with operations:
South China Morning Post notes:
Nothing remotely similar has been attempted before and … it is feared that any error of judgment could lead to a massive release of radiation into the atmosphere.
***
A spokesman for Tepco … admitted, however, that it was not clear whether any of the rods were damaged or if debris in the pool would complicate the recovery effort.
The Wall Street journal notes:
Among the risks [Hiromitsu Ino, professor emeritus of nuclear engineering at the University of Tokyo] and other experts cite is the possibility that a container being used to move the units falls and breaks apart, exposing the fuel to the air.
Similarly, Edwin Lyman – a nuclear expert and the chief scientist for the Union of Concerned Scientists notes:
The biggest risk with Unit 4 pool unloading is that a spent fuel cask might drop and damage the pool, causing a leak that could expose some fuel and cause overheating.
Professor Richard Broinowski – former Australian Ambassador to Vietnam, Republic of Korea, Mexico, the Central American Republics and Cuba – and author of numerous books on nuclear policy and Fukushima, says some of the fuel rods are probably fused.
Murray E. Jennex, Ph.D., P.E. (Professional Engineer), Professor of MIS, San Diego State University, notes:
The rods in the spent fuel pool may have melted …. I consider it more likely that these rods were breached during the explosions associated with the event and their contents may be in contact with the ground water, probably due to all the seawater that was sprayed on the plant.
Fuel rod expert Arnie Gundersen – a nuclear engineer and former senior manager of a nuclear power company which manufactured nuclear fuel rods – recently explained the biggest problem with the fuel rods (at 15:45):
I think they’re belittling the complexity of the task. If you think of a nuclear fuel rack as a pack of cigarettes, if you pull a cigarette straight up it will come out — but these racks have been distorted. Now when they go to pull the cigarette straight out, it’s going to likely break and release radioactive cesium and other gases, xenon and krypton, into the air. I suspect come November, December, January we’re going to hear that the building’s been evacuated, they’ve broke a fuel rod, the fuel rod is off-gassing.
***
I suspect we’ll have more airborne releases as they try to pull the fuel out. If they pull too hard, they’ll snap the fuel. I think the racks have been distorted, the fuel has overheated — the pool boiled – and the net effect is that it’s likely some of the fuel will be stuck in there for a long, long time.
In another interview, Gundersen provides additional details (at 31:00):
The racks are distorted from the earthquake — oh, by the way, the roof has fallen in, which further distorted the racks.
The net effect is they’ve got the bundles of fuel, the cigarettes in these racks, and as they pull them out, they’re likely to snap a few. When you snap a nuclear fuel rod, that releases radioactivity again, so my guess is, it’s things like krypton-85, which is a gas, cesium will also be released, strontium will be released. They’ll probably have to evacuate the building for a couple of days. They’ll take that radioactive gas and they’ll send it up the stack, up into the air, because xenon can’t be scrubbed, it can’t be cleaned, so they’ll send that radioactive xenon up into the air and purge the building of all the radioactive gases and then go back in and try again.
It’s likely that that problem will exist on more than one bundle. So over the next year or two, it wouldn’t surprise me that either they don’t remove all the fuel because they don’t want to pull too hard, or if they do pull to hard, they’re likely to damage the fuel and cause a radiation leak inside the building. So that’s problem #2 in this process, getting the fuel out of Unit 4 is a top priority I have, but it’s not going to be easy. Tokyo Electric is portraying this as easy. In a normal nuclear reactor, all of this is done with computers. Everything gets pulled perfectly vertically. Well nothing is vertical anymore, the fuel racks are distorted, it’s all going to have to be done manually. The net effect is it’s a really difficult job. It wouldn’t surprise me if they snapped some of the fuel and they can’t remove it.
The Japan Times writes:
The consequences could be far more severe than any nuclear accident the world has ever seen. If a fuel rod is dropped, breaks or becomes entangled while being removed, possible worst case scenarios include a big explosion, a meltdown in the pool, or a large fire. Any of these situations could lead to massive releases of deadly radionuclides into the atmosphere, putting much of Japan — including Tokyo and Yokohama — and even neighboring countries at serious risk.
Reuters notes:
Experts question whether it will be able to pull off the removal of all the assemblies successfully.
***
No one knows how bad it can get, but independent consultants Mycle Schneider and Antony Froggatt said recently in their World Nuclear Industry Status Report 2013: “Full release from the Unit-4 spent fuel pool, without any containment or control, could cause by far the most serious radiological disaster to date.”
***
Nonetheless, Tepco inspires little confidence. Sharply criticized for failing to protect the Fukushima plant against natural disasters, its handling of the crisis since then has also been lambasted.
***
“There is a risk of an inadvertent criticality if the bundles are distorted and get too close to each other,” Gundersen said.
***
The rods are also vulnerable to fire should they be exposed to air, Gundersen said. [The pools have already boiled due to exposure to air.]
***
[Here is a visual tour of Fukushima's fuel pools, along with graphics of how the rods will be removed.]
Tepco confirmed the Reactor No. 4 fuel pool contains debris during an investigation into the chamber earlier this month.
Removing the rods from the pool is a delicate task normally assisted by computers, according to Toshio Kimura, a former Tepco technician, who worked at Fukushima Daiichi for 11 years.
“Previously it was a computer-controlled process that memorized the exact locations of the rods down to the millimeter and now they don’t have that. It has to be done manually so there is a high risk that they will drop and break one of the fuel rods,” Kimura said.
***
Corrosion from the salt water will have also weakened the building and equipment, he said.
ABC Radio Australia quotes an expert on the situation (at 1:30):
Richard Tanter, expert on nuclear power issues and professor of international relations at the University of Melbourne:
***
Reactor Unit 4, the one which has a very large amount of stored fuel in its fuel storage pool, that is sinking. According to former prime Minister Kan Naoto, that has sunk some 31 inches in places and it’s not uneven.
And Chris Harris – a, former licensed Senior Reactor Operator and engineer – notes that it doesn’t help that a lot of the rods are in very fragile condition:
Although there are a lot of spent fuel assemblies in there which could achieve criticality — there are also 200 new fuel assemblies which have equivalent to a full tank of gas, let’s call it that. Those are the ones most likely to go critical first.
***
Some pictures that were released recently show that a lot of fuel is damaged, so when they go ahead and put the grapple on it, and they pull it up, it’s going to fall apart. The boreflex has been eaten away; it doesn’t take saltwater very good.
Nuclear engineers say that the fuel pool is “distorted”, material was blown up into air and came down inside, damaging the fuel, the roof fell in, distorting things inside.
Indeed, Fukushima documents discuss “fuel that is severely damaged” inside cooling pool, and show illustrations of “deformed or leaking fuels”.
The Urgent Need: Replace Tepco
Tepco is severely downplaying the risks involved in removing fuel rods. For example, Tepco’s head of the Fukushima plant, Akira Ono, says:
We have removed spent fuels many times. Therefore, we don’t think we are going to be doing anything that is very dangerous.
That is idiotic given that (as shown above) this is anything but a normal fuel removal operation.
Tepco is incompetent and corrupt, and has been in cover-up mode since day one. As such, it is the last company which should be in charge of the clean-up.
Top scientists and government officials say that Tepco should be removed from all efforts to stabilize Fukushima. They say that an international team of the smartest engineers and scientists should instead handle this difficult mission.
Bloomberg notes:
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is being told by his own party that Japan’s response is failing. Plant operator [Tepco] alone isn’t up to the task of managing the cleanup and decommissioning of the atomic station in Fukushima. That’s the view of Tadamori Oshima, head of a task force in charge of Fukushima’s recovery and former vice president of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party.
***
[There's] a growing recognition that the government needs to take charge at the Fukushima station…. “If we allow the situation to continue, it’ll never be resolved” [said Sumio Mabuchi, a government point man on crisis in 2011].
Because the U.S. controls Japanese nuclear policy, Americans should demand of our political representatives that they pressure Japan to kick Tepco off the job ... and let an international team of scientists and engineers take over.
Postscript: As challenging as removing the fuel rods from the pool at unit 4 will be, it will be even harder at units 1 through 3. Specifically, it's too radioactive for Tepco to even get a look at what's going on in those 3 reactor pools, and they have no idea how to do it. Indeed, the technology does not even exist to approach those reactors, as the high radiation levels quickly destroy even robots.
Nuclear fuel rod expert Gundersen says the pool at unit 3 is in much worse shape than at 4:
Unit 3 is worse [than No. 4]. Mechanically its rubble, the pool is rubble. It’s got less fuel in it [than unit 4, but] structurally the pool has been dramatically weakened. And, god nobody has even gotten near it yet.
Tepco's not up to it ... we need a focused, well-funded international effort to fix this mess.
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More detailed close up photos from inside would be more useful.
When you're scratching the hair growing out of the cancerous tumor growing from your chin remember that some people tried to warn you that this was serious.
You're right ... Fukushima is just pumping out unicorn rainbow skittle-flavored farts ...
Are you fucking kidding me do you think anyone here wants people to die over this? It is the absolute opposite. At lot of us scream about this and shit in general because we do fucking care which is more than I can say for most people these days. Prepare for the worst hope for the best in situations like this.
Agree. Now add in a quake during this boring move and......well boring might be the prefered option.
Urban BArd, you're misinformed or plain stupid. No one has died from this? Maybe not yet. How about the increased in thyroid cancer? Increased in spontaneous abortions in western USA right after Fukushima accident. Why don't you load up on pacific seafood and see where you're in a few years; or better yet feed your family.
The fuel rods can be moved in "normal" condition without problem, but this is not normal. Those rods are bent, kinked, and damaged. And they are usually moved around with computer to the millimeter precision. WHy don't you volunteer to move them if it's so boring?
How do you know that the fuel rods in the cooling pools are bent, kinked, damaged ?
Source ?
Photos ?
Have you seen it with your own eyes ?
Give me better evidence that your claims are true.
You obviously know nothing about spent fuel or radiation for that matter. You only think you know what the alarmists tell you. A scary combination. Get well soon.
No no suppose for a moment it works. What then?
I'm reallly hoping what they are proposing does work, and works totally smoothly, without any hitches. In fact I hope that the workforce is so good, efficient and effective that they all qualify for various International awards in recognition for the service they have provided to us all.
If this turns out to be the case, then all we have to concern ourselves with is the ongoing problem(s) of the missing corium from the "other reactors", which is significant, but somewhat less imminently hazardous to the northern hemisphere population(!!).
Hope this answers your implied question. As to what is going to happen? Right now, in view of emerging past workforce abuse, and involvement of Organised Crime syndicates, one feels somewhat "less than totally positive" about the outcomes (if you get my drift . . .)
Put Harry Reid in a swimsuit, drop him into the spent fuel-rod pool, and see how long he can swim. I would pay real money to see that!!!
You may have come up with the answer to our national debt problem!
"We’re In The Most Dangerous Moment Since the Cuban Missile Crisis"
and ironically, we'd all be safer if we let the Cubans and Soviets handle this
Well, thanks to this latest update from GW, at least now I guess we don't need to worry so much about the imminent currency/economic collapse.
sweet.
i'm converting all my PMs to bitcoins and moving to Chile
5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 LIFT OFF!
Just started drinking myself to death. Will slug down the last bottle when my old lady's ass starts glowing green.
Er, maybe a little while later.
Anyone for setting up a lottery as to when they screw the pooch? In BitCoins of course.
What kind of odds are the bookies giving?
When does the removing of the rods begin? Around November 19?
CNN had a documentary that discounts most of the nuclear alarmists out there. Shows people living in and around the Chernobyl nuke site, with no health issues. What's up with that?
So this is Photoshop?
https://www.google.ca/search?q=chernobyl+children&client=firefox-a&hs=C4...
Whats up with that? First printed word.....CNN!!!
Not sure what your point is. I would hardly classify CNN as a right-wing nuke supporter.
Again, check your premise - with the left and right FACADE of the singular "power that is" - there is no difference when it comes to its 31 flavors of pwned bitch press conglomerates.
You have not got it yet? THERE IS NO DIFFERENCE (other than that of meaningless, superficial, window dressing) BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES. There is no "Right Wing" or "Left Wing". It is an ILLUSION.
CNN News is just like FOX News. They both serve as Propaganda Platforms for the CORPORATISTS. I will not classify CNN as a "Right Wing Nuke Supporter".
I will classify CNN as a CORPORATE NUKE SUPPORTER.
Stop buying into the paradigm that there is a difference between the two parties when no real difference exists. Then it will make sense.
Think about what you wrote. Does it make sense if there was a REAL difference? No?
That is Cognitive Dissonance. When the facts contradict the reality into which you have invested then CONFUSION is the result. That is where you at at.
(The CNN position is just another item of evidence which supports what we on ZH have been telling you...for years.)
Abandon your beliefs about the paradigm, OPEN YOUR EYES, and SEE THE STARK REALITY. Stop looking at the illusion. See the paradigm for what it is rather than that which you want it to be.
I know that it can be difficult to believe. But the sooner that you understand the reality the sooner you will be able to operate outside of the illusion. That will be beneficial for you.
Your confusion will clear. It will make sense.
But the reality is dismal at best. (Sometimes I wish that I had not been awakened. They just seem at peace and unaware of their doom and destruction. Maybe that is better.)
But I wanted to know the truth. Well I thought that I had wanted to know it.
But you are here. You have sought the Truth out, sensing that something was fundamentally wrong.
There are NO POLITICAL SOLUTIONS. The current paradigm must die if we stand any chance for survival....which is extremely doubtful...at this point.
Tom - Nobody would agree with you more than me, regarding no real difference between parties. I could give a shit about either one of them. My point is that on a basis of facts and statistics, there is a case to made regarding nuke power and that it has been the darling child of fanatical notions and hysteria for 40 years. If your saying CNN is a "CORPORATE NUKE SUPPORTER" that's your opinion, and your certainly entitled, but that has nothing to do with facts. There are plenty more organizations and people who are making the facts known that have nothing to do with CNN. Of course, if you are a fanatical conspiracy theorist, as many are here on ZH, than nothing is going to sway you. I could just as easily make the case that the fossil fuel industry puts out much of this rhetoric and would like nothing more than people like yourself being their advocates and enabling their filthy industry to thrive.
RE: There are NO POLITICAL SOLUTIONS. The current paradigm must die if we stand any chance for survival....which is extremely doubtful...at this point.
"When I hear a person talking about political solutions, I know I'm not listening to a serious person." --George Carlin
Seems an ideal "opportunity" for TEPCO to once again abrogate responsibility via an extensive and poorly-supervised hierarchy of "Sub-Contractors". Specialists are costly and they have troublesome ideas, so the Politically expedient route will be that of the least "loss of face" as usual.
After all, the recent history of workforce exploitation has been so positive for Japan's Nuclear safety "image" -
http://juzoitami1997.wordpress.com/2013/08/05/the-nuclear-workforce-they-use-the-foreign-workers-to-dive-into-the-water/, and,
http://nuclearinformation.wordpress.com/2012/09/02/the-criminal-system-in-charge-of-japans-nuclear-industry/, and,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/japan-earthquake-and-tsunami-in/9084151/How-the-Yakuza-went-nuclear.html,
and about 87,500 MORE web pages on this thorny "little issue".
If this is a truly Global issue, then there should be a Global response from the very start. Seems those who pull the strings couldn't care less, and so we'll see the "usual" situation - a belated Global response (maybe) after something has gone wrong (with a suitable delay in order to gloss over the problem as best as possible, to avoid embarrassment for all significant parties involved!)
I have sinking feeling that many, if not all, of us will be taking our next vacation on the beach ...
While talking of "On The Beach" ... here it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mxvx9gQ8k0
yssir re bob----Mankind is truly "Standing on the Beach" ready to complete the cycle; Life and now death coming in the ocean.
Maybe the insects that may survive will do a better job than "God's children"
The whole edifice of human's existence, is/was like our current "other" situation, a giantic fraud. Milestones
and Mr. Kawasaki said, "Let The Good Times Roll".....
Not to worry. A globalist effort wouldn't be of any use. All those interests would be worse than Frankenstein lending a helping hand.
Stay the course and be prepared to move.
Ifs and buts...Kerry is making sure they won't occur in ME just like Ben in WS.
The Oligarchy runs the roost and the stock market only hears their cock a doodle crowing each morning.
You get the feeling Fuku is not on their screens...
What an amazing metaphor for everything our Nation has given the World these past 68 years? Including the plight of the Central Banks with QE "inifinity".
Do nothing you're screwed. do something screwed "the same"!
Please. They would ignore all reality if shit hit the fan. They rather have millions die from cancer than evacuate hundreds of million of people.
Is not that the expedient solution?
TEPCO's next public statement, "Ooops. We fuck up. How you like Fukuppy? We told you we fuck up. Now you going to die. Really so sorry about this. So sorry. We all die sometime. You...you just so....so unlucky. Yes...Unlucky you. You need better luck. Now go away. Saiyonara."
It really does not matter. This has already begun killing the Oceans.
And then Jim Willie is thinking that the Elite are somehow going to shelter in underwater habitats? There will be no food as the Oceans are dying. There will be no Oxygen. They may be rich but they are so fucking stupid. They are killing themselves off along with the rest of us.
The removal of the fuel rods in bldg 4 is scary, but think about this for a moment...the workers can't even enter buildings 1-3 because the fuel in the reactors themselves has melted and radiation is "off the charts". So if they cause fission in the #4 fuel pool, it's quite possible the entire plant, including the fuel pools in 1-3 could explode/catch fire. Also factor in reports that the Japanese mafia is involved in "recruiting" workers in the plant. And THAT my friends, is the ball game.
Melt and/or catch fire may be possible, but exploding is probably impossible.
Weapons grade nuclear material are much more concentrated in fissionable material than power reactor fuels, which are much less concentrated in fissionable material.
That is the the basis of the fuss about Iran enrichment of nuclear fuel,
low enrichment for nuclear power reactors, non explosive,
versus high enrichment for nuclear weapons, explosive.
last word
there has been in past threads mention that fuk u has possibly both.
The Human Race has Jumped the Shark.
Sayonara, bitches!
The fuel rods, when removed, will be transfered to dry casks for storage. Thousands of these casks full of spent fuel bundles are located all over the globe.
Don't forget about the corium.
I'm more worried about Tepco's Hopium intake now.
As we know the Japanese Govt. is really running the show, I hope their simulations
were not done using healthcare .gov software.
Fight fire with fire.
Plant 2000 tons of TNT below the storage pool and blow it up. The 3000+ fuel rods will be broken to fragments and dispersed eliminating any possibility of a meltdown, fission and associated contamination of the atmosphere. No need to evacuate US west coast or the northern hemisphere. Tokyo?
Nuke it as an option?
Long term storage in glass.
Just need enough heat.
Not like they haven't been nuked before by the US.
Fill the pools with glass beads ?
Not very useful if it is hot enough to melt the glass.
I almost like the idea until I start to think about where the vaprized nuclear material would end up. I'm seeing glowing sunsets....
Not sure yours is the most diplomatic way to phrase the proposal.
The original Winston wasn't known for his diplomacy - mostly his alcohol intake.