This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Record Levels of Currency Reserves Will Hit Hard

Pivotfarm's picture




 

When the US federal government was shutdown, China jumped in on the financial bandwagon and suggested that we build ‘a de-Americanized world’, which boils down to getting rid of the dollar as the international reserve currency. As the law-makers and the political parties were dragging their feet, the Chinese had their running shoes on to sneakily knock a dead man down again as he was trying to get up. Well, all is fair in love and war and we should expect nothing less.

The official Chinese state-run news agency (in mocking tone) stated: “As U.S. politicians of both political parties are still shuffling back and forth between the White House and the Capitol Hill without striking a viable deal to bring normality to the body politic they brag about, it is perhaps a good time for the befuddled world to start considering building a de-Americanized world”. But, has that dream come true? Has the shutdown affected the reserve currency of the world and is the dollar on its way out?

South Korea

It may not be on its way out just yet, but if the South Koreans are anything to go by, they are prepared to do quite a lot of damage if they have to in order to prevent their own currency the won.

  • Data released today by the Bank of Korea show that the country has been hording foreign exchange reserves (which currently stand at $343.23 billion at the end of October 2013).
  • This means that there has been an increase of $6.3 billion compared to September 2013.
  • You would have to go back at least two years to find that sort of figure.
  • This is primarily due to the fact that the won has risen by more than 9% over the past 4 months.
  • By buying up large quantities of dollars they have been able to preserve an even greater rise in their currency.
  • The South-Korean economy is dependent on exports for its economic-growth prospects and any increase in its currency means they are going to slow down.
  • South Korea’s growth (of Asia’s 4th largest economy) was lowered for 2014 from 4% to 3.8%.
  • Growth this year stands at 2.8%.
  • If and when stimulus stops, the South Koreans will have a huge stockpile of dollars to play with and to counterbalance an outflow of cash back to the US.

Reserves and the Fed

More than 60% of reserves at central banks around the world are in dollars today and that means that if those central banks need to (and they will!) protect their own currencies, then they will not hesitate for one moment about flooding the financial market when the time comes so that they don’t lose out on liquidity in tough times. But, flooding the market with dollars will be bad news for the US. International banks have roughly $850 billion in US dollars at the moment in their vaults and will be able to ride out a future storm.

Despite the pig debt oinking over the EU and the troika today meeting with the Greek Finance Minister over the bailout program (there is a fear over the return of the creditor into Greece due to differences regarding the Greek funding gap) there is one big difference today in comparison with the financial crisis of the subprimes.

  • That difference is that the central banks were not prepared for it.
  • Today, they have reserves of cash, largely due to buying up huge quantities of Quantitative Easing.
  • The EU bought $74 billion in Q1 and $52 billion in Q2.
  • In fact, the real beneficiary of Quantitative Easing is the financial system and the US Federal Reserve has been filling the coffers of central banks around the world, rather than giving it to its own economy.
  • That’s another reason to criticize easy, loose monetary policies (at least from one side of the Atlantic).

Large reserves of the dollar around the world are just waiting there to be used when the economies need it. The central banks are stockpiling dollars in a bid to make their currencies go down against the dollar and at the same time make the dollar scarce so that it is in demand and rises. If it comes to the crunch, then they will have liquidity still even if their economies go downhill and it will be all thanks to Quantitative Easing and the Federal Reserve. The US stock market is on a high, the chapagne corks are popping and the fizz is being drunk down. But, the paradise is  fool's one and nothing more. It's an unreal one that will run into problems sooner or later. The fact that the USA is the biggets debotor in the history of the world right now means that it will have little recourse to counter any economic trouble lurking around the corner (except continue printing money?).

There have been slowdowns in the US economy on cycles of roughly six years. Each time they have got progressively bigger and stronger. The next one will hit then in about 2014-2015, just in time for Quantitative Easing to be a real problem.

But, it will have done one thing: allowed foreign central banks to artificially maintain their currencies lower than they should be and to therefore appear to be more competitive. It will also enable those same economies to have greater financial independence than the US when the trouble knocks on the door.

The US saved the world after all! Only trouble is: it forgot to save itself!

 

Originally posted: Record Levels of Currency Reserves Will Hit Hard

 You might also enjoy: Internet or Splinternet | World Ready to Jump into Bed with China

 Indian Inflation: Out of Control? | Greenspan Maps a Territory Gold Rush or Just a Streak? | Obama’s Obamacare: Double Jinx | Financial Markets: Negating the Laws of Gravity  |Blatant Housing-Bubble: Stating the Obvious | Let’s Downgrade S&P, Moody’s and Fitch For Once | US Still Living on Borrowed Time | (In)Direct Slavery: We’re All Guilty | The Nobel Prize: Do We Have to Agree? | Revolution Costs | Petrol Increase because Traders Can’t Read | Darfur: The Land of Gold(s) | Obamacare: I’ve Started So I’ll Finish | USA: Uncle Sam is Dead | Where Washington Should Go for Money: Havens | Sugar Rush is on | Human Capital: Switzerland or Yemen? |

Technical Analysis: Bear Expanding Triangle | Bull Expanding Triangle | Bull Falling Wedge Bear Rising Wedge High & Tight Flag

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 11/11/2013 - 13:20 | 4142943 novictim
novictim's picture

"...prepared to do quite a lot of damage if they have to in order to prevent their own currency the won."  Could someone complete this sentence, please.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 13:52 | 4143025 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

"protect"??

Sounds like?

Starts w/ a....?

We're gettin' close.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 13:27 | 4142942 novictim
novictim's picture

"...prevent..."  ?

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 12:43 | 4142849 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

he who flushes the dollar first, flushes best...those who wait too long will all then flush together and those turds will just clog up the pipes

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 12:43 | 4142835 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

SDR will include all major FIATS, including the US Dollar.  They will try and continue the game, only the names will have changed....

This is why the US backstopped other problem currencies and areas.  A weighted basket of currencies will be their answer.  They will also pontificate that they have GOLD sort of backing the basket participants.

But the basket participants are really just FIAT Basket Cases and the game will continue....

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 12:32 | 4142829 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

The idea that they yuan will be accepted as the world reserve currency is absolute bullshit. In order for any fiat currency to serve as the world reserve there has to be a sense that it will be a store of value at least over the intermediate term and that the country who issues the reserve currency will be a responsible steward of said currency. In other words, that it will act for the greater good of world community at least to some extent. The reason the U.S. dollar is being challenged as the reserve currency is that the U.S. no longer adheres to either of these conditions.

Now look at China. Credit creation in China is running at an enormous (and unsustainable) rate. China is run by a single political party, which is probably in the top 10 of most corrupt of all world governments. China has a long history of "looking inward" and taking care of Chinese interests first. The only way that China could act as responsible stewards of the world reserve currency would be to risk revolution at home, which they won't do. China would immediately try to take advantage of their reserve currency status, which would cause the world to abandon the yuan as the reserve currency.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 12:43 | 4142850 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Correct.  The last thing that the Chinese (or Germans) would like is to be subject to the scrutiny of a reserve currency status.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 10:54 | 4142558 luckylongshot
luckylongshot's picture

The weird thing about the 'currency' war is that for the average person in the west the likely outcome of losing is likely to be much better long term than if the banksters win. A bankster victory would mean awful levels of oppression and effective slavery for the western public (just look it up) while if the Chinese win, the banksters will be removed and the possibility of a dignified future will remain. As a Tibetan Buddhist this is hard to say....but I hope the Chinese win this one. 

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 10:29 | 4142487 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

One day all those dollars will come home to roost like a flock of black swans.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 10:38 | 4142498 WordSmith2013
WordSmith2013's picture

***

The currency wars are destined to hit hard - VERY HARD - during --->

2013: The Chinese Year of the Black Water Snake

http://cosmicconvergence.org/?p=3866

"Their economy has slowed to a halt as their currency – the rupee -
collapses.  India has incurred the wrath of the West for buying Iran’s
oil with gold."

`

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 12:34 | 4142830 SamAdams
SamAdams's picture

It is nearly 2014.  My guess is 2015, but no later than 2017.  The impact will officially change the face of our govt.  Christians will usher in the change, as once again are fooled into believing prohecies are in play.  China will then own much American collateral, and the communistic influence will trickle down.  Jobs will be scarce at first, eventually logistics and equilibrium will bring the jobs back and accompanied by lowered living wage and benefits.  Obamacare is the tax used to extend, break and control.  Why is David Rockefeller alive at 98 w/o dementia or cancer?  

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 16:28 | 4143483 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

One of the reasons I always involuntarily chuckle when I hear or see a quote about the US in say 2020.

There won't be any US in 3 to 5 years: Gone.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 08:09 | 4142292 lordbyroniv
lordbyroniv's picture

Prisoners Dilemma...bitchez !!!!!!!!!1

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 08:01 | 4142289 World of Debt
World of Debt's picture

It's a crazy WORLD OF DEBT! JIM CRAMER'S TERRIBLE STOCK PICKS--MUST SEE (HILARIOUS) BELOW:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhwplunz7-I

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 11:41 | 4142688 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

LOL! He's got one about Denninger's picks too!

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XqWIS0O2gIk

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 09:51 | 4142411 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

Really?

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 07:34 | 4142276 RabbitChow
RabbitChow's picture

Seems to me that countries loike Korea would be able to either buy USD as they are describing here, or print their own won to inrease their own money supply.  All major currencies must be devalued stepwise or in concert, as has been going on.  I guess debt-based economies don't work, becuase eventually the floating interest rates wi.ll make it impossible to borrow.  Then it will be taxes and austerity.  Welcome to Greece.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 00:06 | 4142047 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

all this idiotic financial bloodshed to keep the $US strong, when the strength of the dollar is their problem.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!