Bitcoin Surges Over $900 As Gold Vulnerable Of Fall To $1,200/oz

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Today’s AM fix was USD 1,272.25, EUR 942.13 and GBP 790.12 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,283.50, EUR 950.04 and GBP 797.01 per ounce.

Gold fell $14.10 or 1.09% yesterday, closing at $1,273.70/oz. Silver slid $0.34 or 1.64% closing at $20.41/oz. Platinum dropped $30.50 or 2.1% to $1,406.99/oz, while palladium fell $15.47 or 2.1% to $714.83/oz.

Gold remains under pressure after the losses incurred yesterday. Gold has failed to rally despite Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve's chief in waiting, indicating she would continue the U.S. central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy.


Gold in USD, 1 Year - (Bloomberg)

Gold prices look vulnerable to further price falls. Support is at the recent low of $1,261.42, followed by the $1,251.84 low from October 15th. A close below that mid October low could see gold fall to test the June lows of $1,180/oz.
   
Investor sentiment remains extremely bearish amid surging stock markets and a complete lack of awareness of real and growing risks - sovereign, monetary and systemic.

Speculators on the COMEX got less bullish on gold last week as hedge funds and banks doubled their short holdings. The net long position on the COMEX plunged 37% to 55,456 futures and options in the week ended November 12, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data show, the biggest drop since February. Short bets climbed to 54,143, the highest since mid August, from 26,490 a week earlier.

The world's largest gold exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell 1.2 tonnes to 864.51 tonnes on Monday - the fund's lowest since February 2009.

Physical demand, which usually tends to provide a floor for prices at lower levels, remained anaemic even after Monday's price drop. Demand has lately failed to pick up even below the $1,300  level as many bullion buyers had bought a lot of bullion when prices fell earlier in the year.

The Fed's $85 billion in monthly bond purchases are inflationary and remain very gold bullish but gold remains very weak despite this ongoing currency debasement.

This money printing and currency debasement and still elevated systemic risk has led to bitcoin surging to new record highs overnight as buyers take shelter in the new virtual currency. Yet, at the same time gold prices remain weak. This is giving further credence to allegations of price suppression.

The virtual currency rose to a high of $900.98 on the Mt. Gox exchange Monday afternoon. It surged 42% from Sunday's close and is up 107% from a week earlier.


Cross Currency Table - (Bloomberg)

Bitcoin was developed in 2009 and is a decentralized digital currency that enables low cost payments without the need for central authorities and issuers. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer (P2P) currency system created in open source C++ programming code. Bitcoins can be accessed from anywhere in the world with an internet connection. Once a user has Bitcoins, they are stored in a digital wallet. Bitcoins can then be sent to anyone else who has a Bitcoin address.

U.S. law enforcement and regulatory agents expressed optimism and acknowledged risks for digital currencies. U.S. officials outlined the potential benefits and liabilities of bitcoin.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a letter in absentia to the Senate panel that virtual currencies "may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure, and more efficient payment system."

Bitcoin’s latest gains came despite the potential for regulation of the digital currency. The U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs (HSGAC) began a hearing yesterday. The event brought representatives from different federal agencies and representatives from the bitcoin community to discuss virtual currencies.


Gold Prices/Fixes/Rates/Volumes - (Bloomberg)

Bitcoin has increased more than tenfold since the beginning of 2013. One of the reasons for the incredible surge is that bitcoin is a freely traded market and not subject to rigging or price manipulation by banks or government. Total market capitalization of bitcoins is in excess of $8 billion based on recent prices, according to Bitcoincharts.com.

The bitcoin frenzy today will be mirrored by a gold buying frenzy which will again see gold prices surge in value in the coming months. This will only happen when prices are again dictated by physical supply and demand.

Bitcoin is an interesting speculative punt and may merit a small allocation in a portfolio however its virtual and digital nature create advantages and also risks.

Physical gold, either in your possession or in allocated accounts, remains a far safer alternative both to bitcoin, to digital gold platforms and to paper and electronic currencies in what is still a vulnerable banking system.

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