Has the Tide Turned for Precious Metal Stocks?

ilene's picture

By Russ Winter of Winter Actionables

Many post-facto articles appear at the end of severe bear markets and bull markets. A recent Wall Street Journal article, for example, noted:

"One of the world's biggest gold bugs is getting crushed by the metal's steep fall.


"The flagship fund of prominent Canadian hedge-fund manager Eric Sprott SII.T -1.56% has dropped more than 50% this year in what will likely be the third consecutive year of double-digit percentage losses, according to documents sent to investors.

 "Redemptions and weak performance have pushed down hedge-fund assets managed by Mr. Sprott to about $350 million from nearly $3 billion in 2008." (Article here.)

The latter probably is a 3Q number that has been driven even lower by endless taper-talk and Comex paper shorting rout in the 4Q. The historic liquidation has run its course and supply is drying up.

How much more selling is left in Sprott’s and similar funds, or for that matter in the GLD ETF? The latter has liquidated its gold, plus some that was added going back to Lehman Brothers. How much additional naked-paper shorting to producers and bullion bankers can slingers muster? Nominal would be my estimation [see "One for the Ages"].

Rick Rule of Sprott conducted an interview about this flow of funds situation and offers some color on what’s transpiring. I put his last comment first because it points to the timing of what’s potentially a real turn in sector money flows. I think he is hinting that the money flow worm has turned from a selling climax to a gearing for an up phase.

“[The] events that have transpired over the last month have made me much more bullish in terms of timing than I would have been six weeks ago,” Rule said. “First, has been with regard to our Sprott mutual funds. We are seeing net inflows, as opposed to redemptions, for the first time in a long time.


“We recently signed and funded a joint venture with the incredibly large Chinese state-owned mining company,” he said. “This will show that outbound investment by the Chinese government into the junior mining sector, which is what we’ve specifically been charged with, is alive and well.”

Note: The following is in regard to the Zijin deal that I wrote about several weeks ago [see "China's Precious Metal Mines Running Out Of Reserves"].

“We expect to be able to announce a similar joint venture with another name-brand Asian investor by the end of 2013. Once again, this is testimony to the fact that Asian strategic investors are back in the junior mining sector in earnest,” Rule said.


“Our Sprott institutional lending fund, where we aim to raise $350 million for our lending business, is very close to securing an extremely strong cornerstone lead-order from a name-brand North American institution.


“I did a couple of days of marketing around the city of London with our CEO.  We were seeing some of the bigger accounts in the city of London.  The bottom line is we received an awful lot of interest in what we were doing.”

One would think that value investors from outside the industry would be all over this vacuum. Adrian Day’s fund was able to buy 5% of Vista Gold for less than a million and half dollars.

Teranga’s very bullish $135 streaming royalty deal with Franco Nevada is also a bell ringer. It has all the hallmarks of a smart, private company builder transaction that is shareholder positive. Further, it refutes the notion that there is no activity in the space. Incidentally, FNV has $1.3 billion in capital for acquisitions.

Before the deal, this went completely undetected by the market. TGZ was trading in a dull, vacuum-like manner, much like the rest of the sector. The good news is that the stock actually responded with a 32% rally on the news. TGZ will soon become a large producer and has the full backing of the government of Senegal, which has a stake in the deal.  In fact, I have it from good sources that Senegal helped pushed this deal through. Hats off to TGZ management for consolidating this high potential district without any shareholder dilution.


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mogul rider's picture

You pumpers have no shame or morals. I and a couple others outed you 2 years ago as you slithered back into your caves - out of your positions to move to the genral market and now are back after selling the top there.

After screwing retail guys here 2 years ago with your 5000 gold pump you cocksuckers now come back to bend them over again?

Have you no shame.

JPM back rooomers no doubt

NSA, JPM, gold pumpers, etc all the the same crowd

The world needs honesty and integrity - not gold pumpers. Working together vs screwing everyone is not taking us forward as a people

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Don't be ridonkulous, it behooves us to obey every single commercial & endorsement on KingWorldNews. Every last one.

toothpicker's picture

Ahh, refreshing to see all the gold bashers and trolls in this thread - this in itself is the perfect contraindicator for me. It takes a har stomach to buy when everyone shouts "sell". Even got a Twitter tip in the thread hahaha, jeeez

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

no, no the tide has not even started to slow meaninfully.  


IMHO many miners are headed to zero.  Gold itself on its way below 1000 if only just briefly, if not solidly down to possibly 500/oz.  


Doesn't mean I am not long miners, I am; long a little above my average size in fact cause I need some long deltas somewhere and all that risk reward stuff ya know?  


However that is a good tell, If I am long it then it still has a bit to go on the down side and if I am short it then its still going to go up a ways.  


That said my weekly forcast is metals and miners down 5 and 10% respectively, twitter up another 10% with a sharp reversal to the upside in the broad market, likely on whatever the FED says plus DEC witching, obamanomics, full moon and whatever else.  



MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I'm not investing in paper promising to be metal so why would I be long on paper promising paper associated to a miner that MAY produce metal, or may not?
Promise to pay isn't good enough for me so why is "promise to try" good enough?

As for gold below 500: impossible. Gold won't go below 1150 and it's already tried in July and it's DONE. Over.

Wages, food, energy, transportation time, processing for refining & crushing rock, all that pushes the cost far, far above 500/oz.

steveo77's picture

 Apex Predators in Hawaii are OUT OF CONTROL, Shark Attacks up 500% as Fukushima Radiation Rolls In
And I don't mean the lawyers.....

Charts and Descriptions Here!


Jam's picture

Russ has made some great macro calls over the last few decades, his timing can be a little suspect though. I remember when Russ was posting on the Silicon investor site years ago. Russ has been correct on calling these mortgage insurers worthless when they were tagging new highs, RDN MTG ect, albiet a bit early. Russ was also bullish on the market when the s&p was trading around 750 or so. I think a guy could make some decent money here on the miners but don't bet the farm. Apparently Mr. Laughing Stock got his clocked cleaned, poor boy.LOL

Blue Dog's picture

I don't want metals stocks. I want metals.

honestann's picture

Thanks for that.  What do you think of the following theory about gold and silver in the next 2 to 14 months?

After 12 straight years of gains, the predators-that-be (fed and federal) decided they could not afford to let trend this stand, or soon it would make everyone decide to adopt gold and/or silver as their own personal "money", even if fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve toilet-paper was mandated by the predators-that-be.

So they decided to do "whatever it takes" to give gold and silver a black eye and scare the wider audiences away.  So they did the following:

#1:  told JPM to paper manipulate PMs lower.
#2:  flood market with physical when necessary.

Recall that the predators-that-be also got called by the Germans, who demanded 1/3 of their physical gold be returned to Germany.  Since the predators-that-be in the USSA were already very low on physical gold, this was an additional problem.  And thus aggressive paper manipulation of gold downward also gives them a way to buy physical at low prices to ship back to Germany.  Likely they sold ALL the German physical into the market years ago, so if behind the scenes Germany demanded the other 2/3 of their gold returned, they have an even more important reasons to manipulate gold downward.

The downside of the above, of course, is that China, India and other countries are buying up physical at a rate far beyond anything anyone has ever seen.  The predators-that-be KNOW they will reach a point where buyers of physical deplete ALL available physical.

So the predators-that-be cannot keep this up forever.  Demand is highest ever, price is below the cost of manufacture (especially going forward, all large high-grade mines are [mostly] depleted, and low prices are encouraging many miners to shut down).

If the "adversaries" of the predators-that-be were just "normal folks", they'd stick it up their butts and just say "screw you... you shall henceforth accept little pieces of paper that say you own gold/silver, but you can't have the physical".  But that can't work now, because in terms of volume probably 80% of their "adversaries" are governments, and they demand physical PMs.

So... I tend to think they've gone ahead, given gold a black eye in the minds of normal retail investors (in the west at least), and they can ride on the unjustified bad reputation they created for a few more years even if they now let the price continue to rise.


Will the predators-that-be attempt to continue their manipulation for another year? My GUESS is no.  The reason is, their adversaries know they are reaching the end of the line, that 2014 is their last chance to buy gold and silver insanely cheap, and will put their buying into warp 9.95 mode... which would overwhelm the predators-that-be ability to source gold and silver.

I'm sure they know it will look better to unwind their manipulation program in early 2014 in order to avoid the break from being so astronomically huge and violent that it brings even more attention [and mania] to gold and silver than they managed to erase in the past 18 months.

However, what we all know from abundant past experience is... these predators can keep utterly non-viable schemes operational a lot longer when we tend to believe.  Which is why we are almost always "early" in our calls for this or that dislocation or trend in the markets.

So... what I guess is this.  They unwind their manipulation scheme in early 2014, and as a result gold and silver slowly take off for the moon (and miners with them).  But I suspect this will not be dramatic lift-off, because most people don't understand the reason, and the reputation of gold and silver is now quite tarnished.  Most people are just "watchers", and won't participate until the trend is well under way.  In fact, most may not jump on the bandwagon until $2000/oz is passed in late 2014.

Plus, the economy is clearly starting a nose-dive, and if most people are actually stupid enough to sign-up (and pay) for Obamacare, the economy will be utterly destroyed.  And that will tend to hold down investment rather effectively even without their manipulation.

I like the idea of being on-board from $1200 to $2000.

I figure we have 2 or 3 weeks before we miss the sweet-spot (by very much).  If they cut (or start winding down) the manipulation in January, we will never see $1200 gold or $20 silver again.

There is, of course, the possibility they cut (or start unwinding) their manipulation between now and xmas, to see what happens, and make their final plans for 2014 based upon that.  So there is a very good argument to say "go for it right now".

Against that, it is possible they will attempt to put one more final black eye upon gold and silver just before (or just after) the first of January... as an attempt to emphasize "don't mess with us, morons".  That would not be unheard of tactics from them, though my guess is, even that draws a bit too much attention to themselves, and might stimulate a few smart cookies to realize what I laid out above.

What do you think?

A82EBA's picture

maybe china told them to short gold until the comex is empty or we dump treasuries

honestann's picture

Hahaha!  Brilliant!

Or true?  Hmmm....

russwinter's picture

The bullion bankers and especially JP Morgan have their largest long gold position ever:


honestann's picture

What does that mean to you?  That my inference is correct, and the predators-that-be are now ready to profit on the reversal?

I mean, obviously everyone who has been an important part of the downward manipulation will set themselves up to profit, which will be vastly easier than squeezing out profit while manipulating downward.

Which I suppose raises another question.  If JPM and friends take full advantage of the upswing, they can make enormous profits.  But the more profits they make, the more gold and silver rise... given the positive feedback involved, and the huge volumes those perverts operate in.

The obvious question is... are the predators-that-be willing to let gold and silver shoot higher as fast as such a huge positive-feedback scenario implies?

Jaspergers's picture

Thanks for sharing your thoughts honestann. I agree with your general thesis and timeline (though I have been early on the latter as well). Someone said that gold will go to $10,000 but noone will own it when it does. I think we are at that point where only strong hands remain, so a quick move up makes sense to me. When people jump in around $2,000, they may enjoy a short ride to $2,400 or so before being shaken out again. 

I am not yet sure, but I suspect that a behind the scenes deal has been made with China to accumulate gold at a discount. Their rate of accumulation seems to have accelerated which could mean that they are getting close. Perhaps the restrictions in India have been a part of this deal.. I only mention this as another potentially important factor as far as timing.

russwinter's picture

I think they are set up to squeeze the managed money shorts, and rally gold hard. It will be probably be in conjunction with the PBoC announcing stunning new gold reserves, and a deal with the Saudis to buy oil in RMB. 

new game's picture

i wouldn't hold anybody to these predictions, but too many varibles that could go any which way.  just one question; what are you going to do with all this gold? cool color and all...

russwinter's picture

Looking at the Fed and bullion banks right now is the wrong conspiracy. There is a large speculative whale or whales in this market.  Will the Real Conspirators Please Stand Up? http://winteractionables.com/?p=7963

Bullion banks are very long gold: http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/3041/ztuz.png

Producers are long gold for the first time ever. http://img534.imageshack.us/img534/8937/vnbs.png 

Largest managed money spec short position ever. http://img560.imageshack.us/img560/8067/s748.png

honestann's picture

Very interesting information, though I don't understand the bullion banks table, because the columns have no headings.

How do we know who is "spec short positions"?  And how do we know none of them are a front for some predator-that-be or other?

dark_matter's picture

Suppose I have a bag of cash under my bed. What do you recommend I do with it?

eddiebe's picture

Makes sense to me, Ann. It's hard to know though about the time-lines and how much ammo the big boyz have ( I don't just mean phyz) ; after all, all central banksters love their ability to produce and profit from confetti.

Could be that they let the Pm's gain say to $ 2400 and all the while putting on shorts, kind of a repeat of the last ramp-up. Then when they find the Pm's heating up again, dumping their shorts into the market. 

They will also start playing mega paper-games in Asia just like they do here in the west, and let's not forget controls a-la India.

One thing we know for sure: We cannot underestimate the craftiness of our masters in keeping us enslaved and confused.

paint it red call it hell's picture

Fuck Precious metal miners AND their ounces in the ground when you could'a had BITCOIN...

Yeah BITCOIN, mine it now!!!!!!

bombdog's picture

I've mined a number from inside my head and here it is:


Would you like to buy that for $1000? Now fuck you for bringing up Bitcoin here.

paint it red call it hell's picture

My intent was to be facetious but I will accept the criticism for my poor attempt amongst serious contrarians.

JamesBond's picture

This essay is like that phone call from your greasey broker screaming, 'Buy my, I mean this, stock!!!"





drdolittle's picture

If you think gold isn't going up you should probably be positioning short on the s and p. The only reason s and p is going up is because a trillion dollars a year is going into it. Your naysaying is probably the mark of the turning point. When all the weak hands have given up is when the tide turns. I'll buy more. Yep, lost some paper money on gold the past year and a half I did. Money I keep in bank topay bills is worth less too.

Jeez, maybe I should buy the stock market. There's no fraud going on, Corzine got put in jail after absconding with his customer's money, everyone keeps their liabilities on books, never off balance sheet. The SEC doesn't put up with fudging the books like one day sales prior to quarter end. Jefferson county got their money back after their officials were convicted of receiving bribes to take crappy loans, all's hunky dory.

I'm not saying you have to buy gold, but if you're buying paper promises you are cruising for a bruising. Talk to me about how gold is going to 250 in a few years.

Laughing Stock's picture

"One of the world's biggest gold bugs is getting crushed by the metal's steep fall."

Yeah, and his name is Russ Winter!


This guy is is hopeless...riding the metals all the way down.  

Was yammering all about MCP when it was trading above $20.  So how'd that work out?

Follow this clown at your own peril.

He has decimated his own portfolio in the past 2-years.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

for the record: you're supposed to buy high-value assets on the way down into the dip, not on the way up. Buying on the way up costs way more but has the same ideal exit time (in cash or barter). Paper price is merely the cost of acquisition.

I remember when I bought "at the top" and into the dip sliding down from 1210 spot to 1100 (missed the full low dip price).

Boy, do I have egg on my face.

new game's picture

anybody dabbling in ag and au since 2012 is losing their ass unless shorting.

hello, look at the charts-skiing anyone. need a chairlift to get to the top!

so face it your holding and that is your official line. holding for life, hehe, until of course the price goes up-lol'g my ass off too...

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

shorting paper while buying physical is standard short-term paper-loss-covering hedging.
Why wouldn't anyone do that?

russwinter's picture

This cowardly heckler hiding under the name Laughing Stock aka Blazen, Uncle Tizz, Uncle Biggs is actually a crawled out from under some rock troll named James Gleason out of the Portland Oregon area. He is one the biggest sicko stalkers and anti-gold psy-ops on the internet. I dedicated an entire blog post to him. 


Laughing Stock's picture

Not true at all

I'm none of those folks

Just been watching you from afar...for years now...here and on CapitalStool


kylosabe's picture

You're a newbie - need to go back to his threads on Silicon Investor which were classics such as his 'Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory' which he started in Sep 2004.

russwinter's picture

"Watching from afar" explains your inaccurate comment about riding PMs down for two years.  I have only gotten seriously into precious metals in late spring-early summer of 2013, enough to catch a piece of the downward action, but not to the degree someone watching from afar might claim. I don't post on Capital Stool, nor will you find from me one single post here or anywhere on gold prior to this year.  90% of what I comment on is for subscribers only, so how would you know? I have some losses (to date) in the sector but MCP wasn't one of them.

Obviously you are working with incomplete, made up or imaginery information. That's the definition of a heckler/troll, not an observer. My article link is entitled "trolls and psy-ops in the mining, precious metals space". That's trolls in the plural. It gets into some of the tactics you just used. 


BidnessMan's picture

Meh - gold stocks are just another form of paper to be inflated away.  Or the mines will be confiscated, or the management team will dilute shareholders to nothing, or fuel and operating costs will more than eat up any profits, or any gains will be taxed away as a windfall profit, or the staff will steal a good part of the gold, or bandits will rob the gold shipments from the mine, or environmental rules will shut down the mine, or  ...  10+ other reasons why paper stocks are just paper.  An empty promise to pay some day by and by.  Only so many greater fools out there. Still lots of guys like this author talking their book in a forever pump and dump for the chumps.  Where are the customer's yachts?

Newager23's picture

Bidness man. I just wanted you to know that your post was brilliant and summed up why investing in gold/silver mining stocks is so risky.

I have added part of your post to the 5th Release of my book: How to Invest in Gold & Silver - A complete guide with a focus on mining stocks.

It is at the top of Chapter 9. The 5th Release should be out around March. I'll mail you a copy if you email me with your address. You can get my contact information at www.goldsilverdata.com



russwinter's picture

"Lots of guys talking". Where exactly, your timeline is quite dated on that one. 

The sentiment towards this sector, especially the miners, is almost universally negative, a far cry from the "got gold" days. Yet there is frequent ad hominem mention of "these people" or 'lots of guys" in terms of gold bulls.  I don't know where "these people" are now, but they are few and far between. 

Save_America1st's picture

I think you guys owe TFMetalsReport.com a bit of a visit to get caught up on what's really happening with the COMEX and JPM.  Turd is seriously kicking ass every single day breaking down the goings on and crunching the numbers for all of us. 

Yes, his main daily info is behind the "vault" which is for paying members only, so the free side of the site doesn't show all the hard work detective Turd puts in for us every day...not to mention his daily podcasts and interviews with top notch insiders.

Is this a plug for the site?  Not at all...I'm just saying anyone who thinks they know what's going on and aren't getting the inside info from Turd are seriously ill-informed, and I'd rather see well informed comments on here about this subject than the ones above from someone like Confundido who is so far off base about the Comex.

Anyways...to each his own.  But I invite everyone to come over to Turd's site to visit and read for a while with the rest of us "Turdites" in Turdville. 

And Sprott is doing just fine...while this article is speaking more of his losses in "paper" silver prices, let's not forget that Sprott's fund is backed by millions of ounces of REAL phyzz silver.  In the end once the Comex goes titties up and is totally busted, you're going to see true phyzz valuation and Sprott will be the main man standing with a shit ton of phyzz silver skyrocketing to the moon. 

He ain't worried one bit and he has no need to be.  Everything is pretty much going according as planned and the end of the paper charade is not that far off.

Once the 6 main phyzz trading exchanges around the world go full force, all the paper games will go up in flames. 

Long live phyzz...keep stacking cheap Ag now while you can, folks...once this rocket takes off you'll want as much phyzz as you could have ever possibly obtained. 

Ljoot's picture

>> ...I'm just saying anyone who thinks they know what's going on and aren't getting the inside info from Turd are seriously ill-informed...

Are you saying if you don't know turd you don't know shit?


akak's picture

That was a really crappy pun.