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What an Inflation-Adjusted All Time High in Gold Would Look Like
Gold has been in a bear market for some two years now. As a result of this, many investors believe that the precious metal is no longer a viable investment.
No investment ever goes straight up or straight down. During the last bull market in gold, the precious metal rose 2,329% from a low of $35 in 1970 to a high of $850 in 1980. However, during that time, there was a period of 18 months in which gold fell nearly 50% (see the chart below)
As you can see, from mid-1971 to December 1974, gold rose 471%. It then fell 50%, from December ’74 to August ’76. After that, it began its next leg up, exploding 750% higher from August ’76 to January 1980.
With that in mind, I believe the next leg up in Gold could very well be the BIG one. Indeed, based on the US Federal Reserve’s money printing alone Gold should be at $1800 per ounce today.
Moreover, at $1,800, Gold is Still Nowhere Near Its All-Time High
Now, a lot of commentators have noted that gold is already trading above its 1980 high ($850 an ounce). What they fail to note is that thanks to inflation, $1 in the ‘70s is worth a LOT MORE than a $1 today.
|
$1 in… |
Is Worth Today |
|
1970 |
$5.49 |
|
1980 |
$2.58 |
For gold to hit a new all time high adjusted for inflation, it would have to clear at least $2,193 per ounce. If you go by 1970 dollars (when gold started its last bull market) it’d have to hit $4,666 per ounce.
Bottomline: gold is nowhere near a peak adjusted for inflation. And when the next leg up begins, we could see a tremendous move.
For a FREE report outlining how to buy Gold at $273, swing by:
http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/goldmountain.html
Best Regards
Graham Summers
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Why don't you go get some!!!?????
I have 1 ozt gold eagles for sale, I am selling at $950 each... That is if I had any.
"If you're using government stats for inflation then you're STILL vastly underestimating what the current value should be since those numbers have been mercilessly manipulated to understate inflation. "
You can see how fucked up the official inflation number is by looking at an "inflation adjusted" graph of the Dow Jones index. It seems fairly consistent up until about 1980 then it suddenly goes parabolic. Did the Dow suddenly become super awesome? Nope. The inflation calculation went to shit around that time. That extra 1 or 2% every year adds up very quickly.
If you're using government stats for inflation then you're STILL vastly underestimating what the current value should be since those numbers have been mercilessly manipulated to understate inflation.
See shadowstats.com
However, IMO, the 1980 peak doesn't provide a good basis for comparison. But tthings now are far WORSE for the $US and US economy in general which does mean the price should be FAR higher than it is. Governments have just gotten much better at manipulating markets. the media and people's PERCEPTION. The house of cards has been propped up for longer than I expected possible - and will likely continue for far longer than it should. However when things hit the fan I expect a shitstorm of epic proportions.
What makes you think we intend to sell?
Physical gold is hoarded by many because there are no easy quality alternative stores of value available, which are highly liquid like gold.
Cash: choose the currency careful
real estate:: reasonable priced quality is rare and difficult to find
stock: vaulations have already reached unsustainable levels
bonds: choose carefully - see "cash"
I do not see a better place than gold to ride out the coming financial storm.
The usual bullshit, if you go by 1970's dollars ...
If you go by 1970's dollars you have to use 1970's highs not 1970's dollars and 1980's highs.
In 1970 the price was $36
In 1971 the price was $41
So I'll give you 1971 price with 1970 dollars
This gives a value today of $225 based on your 1970's dollar value.
Time to sell that shiny crap
I'll buy everything you've got for $225/oz.
If I had any I would be selling to the misguided fools buying at $1200
If I had any I would be selling to the misguided fools buying at $1200
Because you don't have any that makes you the misguided fool...
Why all the down votes? Just like China, I like dumb people willing to sell gold for cheap.
terminaldebt, your banking masters and overlords would be those buyers. They would be happy to give you $1200/oz of their freshly printed dollars for your gold.
Really?
I read on those other articles that there is no gold in Fort Knox, the government sold all their gold, including all the stolen jewish gold they owe to Germany.
Which is it? Are they buying or selling?
I guess it depends on what your conspiracy theory of the day is.
The same people screaming about buying gold were the same ones screaming about buying when gold was at 1800, maybe they should have waited a bit.
I guess they should apply the same reasoning and wait a bit now and buy when it hits 800 or 500.
well you should stop listening to people screaming all the time. Its clouding your judgement.
what you should pay closer attention to is why is all the gold being pulled from the public on a massive scale thru cash for gold mechanisms and refined into large good delivery bars that the silent, meticulous, wealthy, and powerfull entities are stockpiling. You are paying too much attention to the chatter of small fish and not actions of the whales.
Well you can do that by simply shorting the market. Go all in short. You can make millions.
what terminal debt is saying is, is that you have to consider more factors in regards to how the price of gold is priced
insofar as price is concern, probably the most important factors is in terms of the "faced value" that is written into the gold, that is to say, it tells you right on the gold what is the value that it has, and that value is plain for everybody to look at and you can even see it on the Web like at wikipedias
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Gold_Eagle
so the picture on the right hand side of the Web page shows, if you look at it close, that it is fifty dollars and that is for an ounce of fine gold, which is what gives it its intrinsic value, because it has the name of the country on it, and also that the country or else maybe the gold itself or maybe both of them together are trusting in G-d that the value is fifty dollars, and that is also called the 'cost basis'
you might have gold that is not fine gold and then it would not be worth fifty dollars would it, and that is what terminal debt is saying, because even 225 is more than fifty is, as far as the actual value as it appears says
also, your gold might not even be an ounce, and that is another reason that it might be worth less than you think it did
you might also see something that says epluribusunum on the gold and that is a medieval phrase from sanskrit that the knights templar put on gold so that they can tell whether it has value, and in this case it does because of the ancient words that mean secret things when you read them in the mirror
that is what terminal debt is saying but alot of people aren't able to follow the logics
I don't know about "the logics," but my read was that TD's point was that cherry-picking your statistical points of referance can lead you to accepting unreasonable valuations.
I agree with that basic point, even if I don't agree that Au is overvalued at $1200,00/oz.
I don't think anybody cares what face-value is stamped into any particular gold coin.
Will gold price go up more than the inflated/diluted value of the dollars it is priced in ?
my favorite part was the sanskrit reference, though the use of G-d was close.