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Roubini: Many Davos Speakers Think It’s Like 1914 … Right Before WW1 Broke Out

George Washington's picture




 

Well-known economist Nouriel Roubini tweeted from the gathering of the rich and powerful at Davos:

Many speakers compare 2014 to 1914 when WWI broke out & no one expected it. A black swan in the form of a war between China & Japan?

And:

Both Abe and an influential Chinese analyst don’t rule out a military confrontation between China and Japan. Memories of 1914?

Many other economists have forecast war.

Kyle Bass writes:

Trillions of dollars of debts will be restructured and millions of financially prudent savers will lose large percentages of their real purchasing power at exactly the wrong time in their lives. Again, the world will not end, but the social fabric of the profligate nations will be stretched and in some cases torn. Sadly, looking back through economic history, all too often war is the manifestation of simple economic entropy played to its logical conclusion. We believe that war is an inevitable consequence of the current global economic situation.

Larry Edelson wrote an email to subscribers entitled “What the “Cycles of War” are saying for 2013″, which states:

Since the 1980s, I’ve been studying the so-called “cycles of war” — the natural rhythms that predispose societies to descend into chaos, into hatred, into civil and even international war.

 

I’m certainly not the first person to examine these very distinctive patterns in history. There have been many before me, notably, Raymond Wheeler, who published the most authoritative chronicle of war ever, covering a period of 2,600 years of data.

 

However, there are very few people who are willing to even discuss the issue right now. And based on what I’m seeing, the implications could be absolutely huge in 2013.

Former Goldman Sachs technical analyst Charles Nenner – who has made some big accurate calls, and counts major hedge funds, banks, brokerage houses, and high net worth individuals as clients – says there will be “a major war starting at the end of 2012 to 2013”, which will drive the Dow to 5,000.

Veteran investor adviser James Dines forecast a war is epochal as World Wars I and II, starting in the Middle East.

Billionaire investor Jim Rogers notes:

A continuation of bailouts in Europe could ultimately spark another world war, says international investor Jim Rogers.

 

***

 

“Add debt, the situation gets worse, and eventually it just collapses. Then everybody is looking for scapegoats. Politicians blame foreigners, and we’re in World War II or World War whatever.”

Marc Faber says that the American government will start new wars in response to the economic crisis:

We’re in the middle of a global currency war – i.e. a situation where nations all compete to devalue their currencies the most in order to boost exports. And Brazilian president-elect Rousseff said in 2010:

The last time there was a series of competitive devaluations … it ended in world war two.

Jim Rickards agrees:

Currency wars lead to trade wars, which often lead to hot wars. In 2009, Rickards participated in the Pentagon’s first-ever “financial” war games. While expressing confidence in America’s ability to defeat any other nation-state in battle, Rickards says the U.S. could get dragged into “asymmetric warfare,” if currency wars lead to rising inflation and global economic uncertainty.

As does Jim Rogers:

Trade wars always lead to wars.

Martin Armstrong wrote in August:

Our greatest problem is the bureaucracy wants a war. This will distract everyone from the NSA and justify what they have been doing. They need a distraction for the economic decline that is coming.

Armstrong argued last month that war plans against Syria are really about debt and spending:

The Syrian mess seems to have people lining up on Capital Hill when sources there say the phone calls coming in are overwhelmingly against any action. The politicians are ignoring the people entirely. This suggests there is indeed a secret agenda to achieve a goal outside the discussion box. That is most like the debt problem and a war is necessary to relief the pressure to curtail spending.

And given that many influential economists wrongly believe that war is good for the economy … many are overtly or quietly pushing for war.

In addition, historians say that the risk of world war is rising because the U.S. feels threatened by a rising China … and the U.S. government considers economic rivalry to be a basis for war

Moreover, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan said that the Iraq war was really about oil, and former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill says that Bush planned the Iraq war before 9/11. And see this and this. If that war was for petroleum, other oil-rich countries might be invaded as well.

And the American policy of using the military to contain China’s growing economic influence – and of considering economic rivalry to be a basis for war – are creating a tinderbox.

Finally, multi-billionaire investor Hugo Salinas Price says:

What happened to [Libya's] Mr. Gaddafi, many speculate the real reason he was ousted was that he was planning an all-African currency for conducting trade. The same thing happened to him that happened to Saddam because the US doesn’t want any solid competing currency out there vs the dollar. You know Gaddafi was talking about a gold dinar.

Indeed, senior CNBC editor John Carney noted:

Is this the first time a revolutionary group has created a central bank while it is still in the midst of fighting the entrenched political power? It certainly seems to indicate how extraordinarily powerful central bankers have become in our era.

 

Robert Wenzel of Economic Policy Journal thinks the central banking initiative reveals that foreign powers may have a strong influence over the rebels.

 

This suggests we have a bit more than a ragtag bunch of rebels running around and that there are some pretty sophisticated influences. “I have never before heard of a central bank being created in just a matter of weeks out of a popular uprising,” Wenzel writes.

Indeed, some say that recent wars have really been about bringing all countries into the fold of Western central banking.

 

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Thu, 01/23/2014 - 21:04 | 4360942 George Washington
George Washington's picture

Tweet + hot toddy = "hot twitties"?  Or does that involve boobs?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 21:28 | 4361028 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Toddies, tweets + titties = Hot Twitties

And that is precipitously what Roubini is doing there.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 22:15 | 4361192 George Washington
George Washington's picture

He's scraping the bottom of the barrel:

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 12:08 | 4362806 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

they look like they were huffing something

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 08:56 | 4362173 insect0man
insect0man's picture

{ shrug } I thought he'd be taller, not.

I found it amusing when visiting DC and riding the Metro how short all the little power mongers who live and work there are.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 23:38 | 4361509 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture
  1.  i thought she was a red head
  2. her first husband, michael was a log cabin republican (gay)
  3. she ran against arnold in the CA recall election (he won)
Thu, 01/23/2014 - 23:12 | 4361402 joego1
joego1's picture

Maybe she is going to puff his Huffington. Or possibly rub his rubinni?

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 22:55 | 4361348 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

bleach for my eyes!!

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 22:51 | 4361336 Kiss My Iceland...
Kiss My Icelandic Ass's picture

Ew...

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 22:37 | 4361268 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Intelligence is always inversely proportional to the amount of chest shown.  This applies to male and female, but males get extra points if they have chest hair and are losing head hair.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 12:13 | 4362835 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

"Intelligence is always inversely proportional to the amount of chest shown."

Now I finally understand the Kardashian's.

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 23:51 | 4361539 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

One button down on flannels and polos. Never on shirts.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 02:47 | 4361844 the0ther
the0ther's picture

I come to ZH for global and economic news and I get fashion tips. Love it!

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 22:18 | 4361199 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Or is it Huffington who is scraping the bottom?

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 01:30 | 4361746 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

She's on his shit for his art collection.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 02:39 | 4361840 SHRAGS
SHRAGS's picture

Yeh, his "Wall Vaginas" art collection

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 04:39 | 4361915 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Precisely.

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 07:31 | 4362015 Manthong
Manthong's picture

..there are some things that even a 40# paper bag can't fix.. for a horny blind man.. in a dark room.. on crack.. and meth at the same time.

..and if some pervert had image intensifier goggles, would she be blond at 180 degrees?

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 14:55 | 4363611 Manthong
Manthong's picture

oh, f...

get a sense of humor

Thu, 01/23/2014 - 23:02 | 4361378 gafgroocK
gafgroocK's picture

 

 

Ya think they "did it" ?

Fri, 01/24/2014 - 07:33 | 4362025 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

Yuck.

Someone should write rap lyrics about this. White rap lyrics. White niggaz...

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