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What’s With the Chocolate?

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So it’s been Christmas and the holiday season and Santa had his sacks stuffed with chocolate. Then it was Cupid and Valentine’s Day and the chocolate got bought up in the shops and the loved one’s will be complaining that they put on too much on their hips or the boyfriend felt sick after gorging himself on the stuff and you still reply they look chocolate-boxy and fine.

Whatever you have been doing, get ready for the world price rise in chocolate…it’s running out. Yes, another thing to add to the endless list that we are told is going to disappear with the water we drink, the gas that we heat the home with and probably just about anything and everything has been added to that list of things that will go the way of the Dodo. So, if you have a few chocolates on that second layer that are still left over, then you need to whip them off to the bank and get them locked away.

• The retail price of chocolate in the US rose last year by 2.8% above inflation.
• The world is now consuming 4 million tons of the stuff.
• That means it’s 32% more than a decade ago. 
• The price of Cacao has already increased by 9% this year. 
• Demand will outstrip supply for the next five years at least.
• The emerging markets have had their share of the gorging too on chocolate. Greater affluence has meant that they are buying it up. 
• China has increased consumption by 5% and is expected to do so steadily right through to 2018. 
• The USA imported 450 000 tons of cacao in 2011.
That’s way behind the Netherlands which is the biggest importer in the world (720, 000 tons), which is surprising given the population of the country and the fact that the Dutch aren’t the first that spring to mind when thinking about chocolate. 
• The cocoa futures are nearing the $3, 000-per ton mark today.
• Dealing with the increased consumption can’t be remedied immediately since it takes roughly a decade for a cocoa tree to reach maturity. 
• Only an increase to $3, 500 per ton may incite farmers to invest in expanding their production, according to specialists.

So, what does this mean for the chocolate lovers around the world? Probably that you will either be seeing a price rise in your favorite chocolate bar or else the size of it will have to see a drop. That’s the only two ways it can go. It’s either more expensive or smaller. Probably, we could end up with both: expensive small bars of chocolate. Great! Wasn’t life already bad enough with the economists’ scare-mongering everybody?

Does that mean we are going to see chocolate being sold illicitly on the street corner? Will we have chocolate runners and chockie barons? ‘I should cocoa’ as the Brits might say!

Life without chocolate would be a beach…without water. In the meantime, the price of cacao futures is set to rise over the next few months and even years. Either that, or you can run into the nearest chocolate store and shout ‘put the chocolate in the bag, lady…and nobody gets hurt!’; it’s always an alternative.

Originally posted: What’s With the Chocolate?

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Tue, 02/18/2014 - 20:32 | 4450539 ConManipulation
ConManipulation's picture

You fuckers make me reallllllly want chocolate.  I like that about y'all.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 12:05 | 4448206 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Do like California and have record grape harvests year after year? Its a miracle?

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:55 | 4448163 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Infused goodies until the chocolate runs out! Wait the white chocolate makes it easier to dose and you wont eat whole bar and fall asleep. Oops never mind.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 11:32 | 4448045 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Chocolate covered pork rinds.

Women go crazy for em.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:26 | 4447755 Graph
Graph's picture

That can make Cocoa producing countries to find themselves on Evil List #2...like, president of Peru wakes up one morning and finds out that he's a new Hitler or something.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 10:00 | 4447612 purplefrog
purplefrog's picture

"Give me some chocolate and no one gets hurt."

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:54 | 4447593 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Mother Nature just told me that no man can ever make a woman truly happy.  Something about not having a choclate penis that shoots money.  God must be a man then, otherwise she would have made this possible...

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:04 | 4447459 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I think im gona put an ad on craigslist "huge chocolate covered cock" and yes penise membranes........it will be a m4w ad.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 08:57 | 4447441 kurt
kurt's picture

Hey! My sweet chocolate had a Mathusian Death Head center!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:49 | 4446646 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

too late, you can buy the chocolate bit-coins at most confectionary stores.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:02 | 4446498 satoshi411
satoshi411's picture

BitFudge(tm) BitCocoa(tm)

BitMunch(tm) FudgeCoin(tm)

CocoCoin (tm)

I'm working with fonestar to make the first publicly available bitcoin clone 100% backed by chocolate, aka CocoaCoin.

*

Tied to Cocoa futures and virtually edible. 1M kisses by 2016

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:00 | 4446491 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

My Wife considers a chocolate shortage more serious than a banking collapse, currency collapse, WWIII, and global ecological collapse put together.

 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:09 | 4446514 satoshi411
satoshi411's picture

Same here in Asia, I bake a lot as bread as its not available, or pizza, or anything for that matter, but wheat flour can be found in all its forms.

I bake a lot, but the only thing the women ask for is MORE chocolate fudge brownies. I would prefer Toll House Chocolate cookies myself, but they don't like 'crunchy' ( butter&sugar ), they like chewy and cakey. Oh, well when in Rome bake what the Romans ask for. :(

Yakk Butter ain't so bad when its mixed with chocolate and sugar.

*

I suggest we all here post our favorite recipes, hell just yesterday I made two batches of Bagel's, albeit no chocolate :(

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:45 | 4448734 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

"Yakk Butter"

Do you milk the bulls yourself?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:55 | 4446475 toadold
toadold's picture

http://www.icco.org/about-cocoa/growing-cocoa.html

Oh peachy keen, seems to grow best in tropical hell holes for the most part.

I wonder if you could green house and hydroponic the plant?

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:41 | 4446441 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

damn, something i like and that would have been a decent investment over the last 5 years.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:53 | 4446466 akak
akak's picture

Chocolate would be the perfect tangible investment for Keynesians and gold-haters --- after all, you can eat it.

Let's see all the parrots on CNBC try to squirm out of that one!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:33 | 4446417 AvoidingTaxation
AvoidingTaxation's picture

Cacao is one of the Gods food. It ia normal that the sheeples are just alouded to have a little bit.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 20:49 | 4446313 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

..

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 20:48 | 4446311 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

One of the 4 main food groups.  Ice Cream, scratch made Cake, and sour cherry pie, being the other 3.

No more than 60% cacao, though.  Any higher and it tastes like brown chalk.

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:45 | 4447561 GoldenTool
GoldenTool's picture

4 Food groups.  Meat, Chocolate, other stuff and Scotch.  I would count chewing tobacco but technicaly it isn't food just something to do when not eating chocolate.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 20:55 | 4446330 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

You're preaching to the choir.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 19:56 | 4446161 Unpopular Truth
Unpopular Truth's picture

Eating chocolate puts me in a physically better mood. There must be some nutritional/biological explanation. Unfortunately it also crushes the scale more.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:56 | 4446477 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

chocolate excites the same neuron receptors in the brain as an orgasm does, just doesn't have the physical manifestations nor the same quantity. so one or two ounces of chocolate per day have many beneficial affects to the human body.

we use to joke at work that it took two mini reeses cups.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:19 | 4446551 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Once mr miffed served me oysters on the half shell,followed with a pine nut arugula salad with avocado, figs, and honey mustard dressing. Then he served strawberries dipped in dark chocolate with a vintage port for dessert. I was quite flattered until I ruminated about the ingredients. " Hey, something about all of this seems suspicious". He smiled " I have no idea what you are insinuating."

Miffed;-)

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 13:47 | 4448745 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Did it work?

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 00:46 | 4451477 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Deliciously ;-)

Miffed;-)

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 09:57 | 4447604 purplefrog
purplefrog's picture

Cute. 

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 18:39 | 4445958 weburke
weburke's picture

there is no good reason to have soy in it.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 19:45 | 4446134 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Soya Lecethin is popular emulsifier ingredient and is make sure Amerikan chocolate is not melt in hand. Is also side benefit of sphincter relaxant and lubricant.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:07 | 4446508 weburke
weburke's picture

Dear Boris, I am deeply suspicious of the poisoning agenda, and soy is an endocrine system disrupter. But, pick your battles I guess, and there is no getting family or freinds to care about the ingredient list of foods and how their foods are grown and/or processed. Oh well !  There are chocolates without soy, for that I am grateful !

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 01:59 | 4447088 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

There are also chocolate without chocolate. Maybe government issue chocolate is no chocolate...? Shhhhhhh... you are keep secret, okay!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 17:41 | 4445767 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Sounds like a sweet investment!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 18:59 | 4446016 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

91 reasons your Hershey Kiss is going to become unaffordable.

This time you've gone too far Economic Collapse Blog!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 17:31 | 4445737 Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

Mmmmmmmmmmm chocolate !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 17:23 | 4445705 mjcOH1
mjcOH1's picture

" • The retail price of chocolate in the US rose last year by 2.8%."

Luckily, there is no inflation.

Wed, 02/19/2014 - 18:38 | 4454617 Rukeysers Ghost
Rukeysers Ghost's picture

Chocolate shortage? Who cares. Wake me up when there is a Scotch shortage. Then I will panic.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:58 | 4446485 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

"Demand will outstrip supply ..."

That can only mean that there are huge cacao storage facilities somewhere.  Do you think the Squid is trucking it around between warehouses?

 

Tue, 02/18/2014 - 21:59 | 4450952 X_mloclaM
X_mloclaM's picture

http://web.archive.org/web/20100415160334/http://www.independent.co.uk/n...

'Chocolate finger' set to make a fortune as price of cocoa soars

By Saeed Shah

Monday, 9 September 2002

 

 

Anthony Ward, the trader dubbed "chocolate finger" who has cornered the cocoa market, looks set to make a fortune as the price of the commodity continues to soar.

...

Mr Ward, chief executive of Armajaro, which in July took delivery of around 5 per cent of world annual production, said the continued strength of cocoa prices proved that he was not simply a speculator. "We're happy. It's been demonstrated very well it was all market fundamentals. But I've been quite surprised myself at the strength of the market," he said.

...

Although the EIU's latest report said prices will come down in the medium term, the bubble will not burst until next year. Mr Ward took a £150m gamble to take physical delivery of 148,000 tonnes of cocoa from contracts traded on Liffe. It is thought that he acquired the cocoa at an average price of about £1,000 a tonne.

On Liffe prices recently climbed to more than £1,400 a tonne while New York cocoa futures saw prices at more than $2,000 a tonne. Mr Ward took his position after the two last crops in the Ivory Coast, where 40 per cent of the world's cocoa is grown, proved to be weak and both years saw global deficits in supply. Early news of this season's crop from the Ivory Coast suggests it has been damaged by wet weather, as high humidity has caused the cocoa pods to rot. It all points to an unprecedented third year in a row of global under-supply.

Mr Ward will have hedged more than half his cocoa position in the futures market, so it is difficult to calculate what sort of profit he is sitting on. He said it should be measured in the millions, but acknowledged that when he offloaded most of his cocoa, the profit may be in the tens of millions.

...

"We've been selling in the market," he said. "But we still have a reasonable amount of stock. Mid to late November is generally the best time to sell."

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 17:42 | 4445777 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Chocolate! Boy it'll really hit the fan once the cravings set it.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 19:07 | 4446036 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Is all for good news! Not only is no inflation, but government mandate chocolate ration is increase 5g/day to 20g/week. All praise and joy for state bureaucracy and benevolent and capricious dear leader.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 20:49 | 4446310 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Jeanne Calment lived to the age of 122 years 5 months, married into money, stayed active, smoked for 97 years, drank red wine, ate a Mediterranean diet, and ate a kilogram of chocolate a week.

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 21:52 | 4446458 akak
akak's picture

Yeah, but in the end it STILL killed her!

They oughta pass a law making chocolate illegal!

For the children!

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 22:05 | 4446504 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

Yeah, but she died with a smile on her face. We should be so so lucky! ;-)

Miffed;-)

Mon, 02/17/2014 - 20:40 | 4446293 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

Life is good, Boris, after all, the ration increased last year by at least the same amount!

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