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Will We Hold It Wednesday – The Lies We Tell Ourselves

ilene's picture




 

Will We Hold It Wednesday – The Lies We Tell Ourselves

By Phil Davis of Phil's Stock World

S&P 1,886 – a new record!  

Sure only 86M shares were traded on SPY (see Dave Fry's chart), which is about what's usually traded on a holiday but why should we let that bother us? As Dave noted in his post last night:

SPY 5 MINUTE

[Chart by Dave Fry]

Predicting market movements is a waste of time even for the best strategists. This is a period when following technical systems pays off, especially remaining disciplined and systematic. This includes having cash available to move as conditions change. It’s fun to predict the future marked by witty and amusing comments. That’s just entertainment.

Following trends is no different than following the money. Over the past 5 years this has led to following gifts of liquidity from the Fed and other central banks. A more dangerous method is to guess central banks next move. Janet Yellen has already laid her marker down the Fed will continue to be accommodative for a long period ahead. Bulls interpret this as bullish for equities and being nobody’s fool, they’re just going with the 5-year historical trend. The ECB is expected to provide more stimulus at its next meeting Thursday. The PBOC is expected to do so as well soon even as the finance minister has said they wouldn’t. Bulls don’t believe him for now.

With bulls believing the “all clear” has been sounded by Yellen, bulls can return to a “bad news is good” modus operandi enjoying or ignoring bad news.

SPX WEEKLY

[Chart by Dave Fry]

As pointed out by Zero Hedge, "While QE may have tapered to a "measly" 55 billion per month, on just the first day of April risk assets experienced the additional benefit of over two full months of QE injected into the stock market in one single day!"  And now you know where yesterday's buying deluge came from."  

That's right, I showed you the chart yesterday that highlighted the $250Bn worth of "reverse repo" handed out to the banks on the last day of the month to goose the markets and, unlike Jan 1, they didn't drop it back to $50Bn the next day. Instead the Fed fed another $113Bn to the Banksters yesterday and, despite the fact that it was a slow day, they jacked the indexes right back to record highs again.  

Does it sound like a conspiracy theory?  Watch Jon Stewart's interview with Michael Lewis, which begins at about 8:45 in this episode:  

 

Yes, it's RIGGED. It's rigged and it takes the cooperation of EVERYBODY involved to rig it. The SEC has to look away, your broker has to lie to you that you are getting the "best executions" while they are SPECIFICALLY selling better executions to HFT houses. The media has to cover it up as well, lest the consumers get outraged. That's why the FBI has launched an investigation and not the SEC but, at this point, why trust the FBI?

Certainly you can't trust the media. Did you even know that there was just an oil spill in Lake Michigan?  Yes, it's BP again. That's OK though, turns out Bayelsa has 40 oil spills per month – thank goodness they don't have them nasty Government Regulators getting in the way of progress in Nigeria! I love this quote from AllAfrica.com:

Sadly, the very existence of the people depends on the environment, which is being destroyed with impunity due to oil and gas activities, crude oil thieves and illegal refinery operators.

This is what the World looks like when you let the energy companies "regulate themselves." 

The "news" you get is manipulated by the same corporations that are committing these crimes. I was watching Bloomberg this morning and I saw something outrageous. Lufthansa's pilots are striking in Germany and, as they usually do, the networks like to pull random  strikers from the crowd to ask them questions, rather than allowing the actual leaders of the unions to speak on TV. This way, they hope to present the striking workers as radicals with unclear agendas and hopefully catch them saying something that damages the cause, rather than interview the people who have been elected to speak for the group.

Go here for the video.

But that's not enough for Bloomberg, they actually went out and found a guy named Streicher to interview but the joke was on them as he held his own quite well. That wasn't what I thought was outrageous – what was outrageous (and I hope the boys at the Daily Show pick this up for me) was that the pilot knew enough to talk into the camera and the guy from Bloomberg said to him "no face me."  It's not in the clip but I swear that's what happened live on TV. Obviously, not facing the camera makes him seem less sincere – this is just one of the little ways the corporate media manipulates the message for you!  

Why should this matter to you? Because the same kind of blatant manipulation goes on in the broader market and, if you are considering buying stocks at record highs or bonds that pay you record low interest rates – you have to consider AT LEAST the possibility that they are being manipulated and the prices you are paying or receiving are screwing you and benefiting the manipulators. 

The Nikkei shot up last night not because anything good happened in the market (and yes, we are short the Nikkei), but because the Yen was weak and, best of all, Japan's $1.25Tn pension fund will be handing money to Goldman Sachs and other Banksters to put into the stock market – the same plan the Bush Administration had for our Social Security funds in 2006 – that would have worked out terribly, wouldn't it have?  

 

FXY WEEKLY

[Chart by Dave Fry]

 

There were no Democrats to block this evil scheme to loot the pensions by the Banksters and Conservatives in Japan, so off the money goes with the brokerages each expected to invest between ¥200 billion and ¥400 billion, concentrating on companies with high return on equity, according to the Nikkei. The WSJ is, of course, ecstatic with this idea – the author of the article couldn't find anyone with anything bad to say about it! The headline says the Nikkie could pop 5% on this news – WOW!  

And it would be WOW! if the same news hadn't already lifted the Nikkei off the 14,000 mark in November, when the idea was first put forth by Abe. We discussed it in our Member Chat Room that day and decided to go long on the Nikkei and EWJ at the time. Now, at 15,000, the Nikkie is not 5% higher but 7% higher and it's time to flip short – we didn't change our position – the Nikkei simply overshot the mark.

Warren Buffett made a great point of warning us about the trouble facing public pension plans in his recent letter to shareholders – just one of the many problems both the market and the Mainstream Media are choosing to ignore – so far.

 

 

 

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Thu, 04/03/2014 - 11:35 | 4621312 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I love this line, "There were no Democrats to block this evil scheme to loot the pensions by the Banksters and Conservatives in Japan,.."

LOL. Pushing that faux Red, Blue team narrative. The entire article points out the markets are rigged but what's a paper pusher to do? Phil's cut from the same cloth as Jon Corzine. Predator. I'm amazed the grifters on his sight believe they're smart enough to exit first through the door. I hope Phil and his minions lose all of their phony wealth.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 10:47 | 4621120 Jam
Jam's picture

Come on ilene ...

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 09:13 | 4620791 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Special Delivery to the newest heroes on Wall Street Mike Lewis and Brad Katsuyama and their last minute "window dress" to attempt to usher in a new and fair market structure "that isn't illegal" we are told in yet another "wonderful whitewash" from the gang at 60 minutes...

One of the best summaries I've read thus far on the rampant cheating that will not bring back investing to the "over the counter" days until the rules and regs for electronic trading are completely gutted re-written and in your investment contract -which at this stage will be next to never with the white collar criminals in banking who are going to jail every day.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/high-speed-trading-what-do-you-mean-front-running-investors-isnt-illegal/

P.S.

Fuck Jon "9/11 was an outside job Leibowitz" Stewart

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 11:38 | 4621329 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Before you rewrite the rules and regs, you need to start with criminal prosecutions of the current rules and regs.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 09:00 | 4620754 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law.

That is all..

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 08:14 | 4620597 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Just relax.  It'll all be over soon.

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 04:01 | 4620319 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

I love the smell of corruption in the morning!

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 00:30 | 4620079 rocker
rocker's picture

One thing for sure, Michael Lewis has warned us in advance this time.  There is more to the Algo Software that Goldman was so scared to share with the rest of the world.

I will just say think of how Google uses their software to display ads by what you look at on the internet.  Hmmmm. So you actively check stocks on a live chart a few times.

And with no news, that XYZ seems to to up with a "I need to buy it now" urgency. And then crashes back on no news again. Hmmmm.  I have done just that many times and it does work. The HFT bastards use the same software on open live accounts. Cash sure seems to smell like a good idea right now. Be Careful and a Great Day All.

PS: Nice Read Ilene.  

Thu, 04/03/2014 - 01:06 | 4620139 joego1
joego1's picture

"One thing for sure, Michael Lewis has warned us in advance this time"

The warnings are popping up like a "wack a mole". The MSM is getting carple tunnel trying to beat the little fockers back in their holes.

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 20:14 | 4619338 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

And speaking of another high, nothing even resembling a top has come in.  You know.............volume?  Lot's of times tops are actually made in conjuction with huge 'good'news.  I can't fucking hardly wait to see what that might be?  Less killed than expected in US nuke attack on Russia?

LOL I need to have a goddamn beer and smoke a joint and chill the fuck out.  Let me know when one of you fuckers got a spaceship ready to blast off this fucking shithole I have survival skills that could be useful.  The first order of survival is getting the hell off this planet.

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 20:51 | 4619500 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

I'm right there with you,time for a beer ?

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 22:13 | 4619743 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I'm on my 4th one since I wrote that.  Kinda slow tonight lol.  

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 22:26 | 4619781 Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

haha. Beer it up i say. 

SPY up and looks good, and SPX goign to 1900 easy. I did see some very SHOCKING studies, about the market crashing every 7 years in the last 20 years wow. Check it out here => http://bit.ly/1hj3Zwr It means there could be another one comes soon,.

They will prop this up to 2014 in 2014 SPX, and then wait till everyone says. "PHUCK! WE ARE NEVER GOIGN DOWN AGAIN ON SPX" the crash the dam thing to the depths of hell. 

Right now they will rally us up to the stairway to heaven, to breed a false sense of security. You know, that old chest nut right. Take them along like sheeps to the slaughter house, and feed them candy and lollipops all the way in. Yes we will rally up higher, but then there is trouble coming. If you see the chart above. 

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 23:18 | 4619936 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

In a way they have caught themselves in their own trap.  Who actually owns stocks?  Ownership is very low and concentrated.  If they crash the market they will be the biggest losers. 

Another bailout=Armed revolt.

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 20:10 | 4619323 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Fuck public pensions.  This is the one group of fucking clowns that can just raise your taxes and rape you.  If you refuse to take it in the ass they'll just sell your shit.

The real world is getting hammered, these motherfuckers are plowing straight ahead as if nothing is wrong with half ass unfunded projects all over the place they can't finish and still placing ads for $85k a year shitwater treatment works.

Fuck the government and it's leaches.

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 22:17 | 4619753 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Fire 50% of them.  Give the remaing leaches 50% pay cuts.  Outlaw personal real estate tax.

You're city hall should be a little metal building on a street corner and any business that requires something larger the gov't needs to stay the fuck out of it.

Unlike our monstrosity solid copper and polished granite cathedral for the priveledged working class surrounded by a goddamn fucking ghetto.  The tentacles keep reaching..........you can follow the destruction clear out into the rural areas now.

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 22:20 | 4619768 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Complete no less with 2 large offices with a bunch of fucking idiots that do nothing but send out tax bills and collect them.

And so you don't have to drive across the county they were nice enough to build a $500k metal fucking shed and hire 6 more government stooges to assist you with taking your money.

Fuck the US gov't!

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 19:23 | 4619138 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

As the yen drops even higher stock markets in Japan will fail to protect the wealth of those invested within its borders. Japan is the most indebted developed country in the world and its future prospects are dim and getting worse. It is only a matter of time before the yen becomes worthless.  If inflation begins to take root it will place upward pressure on Japanese bond yields and raise the cost of government to service its massive debt.

With the BOJ  set to absorb half of the government bonds planned for sale this fiscal year, domestic investors have already started venturing overseas for higher yielding assets. If this turns in to a tsunami of  money fleeing Japan it will constitute the end of the line for those holding both JGBs and the yen. More on this subject below,

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/08/japans-economy-going-forward.html

Wed, 04/02/2014 - 23:45 | 4620008 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

wonder what rsnoble thinks ...

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