Ukraine Flashpoint

Pivotfarm's picture

Follow ZeroHedge in Real-Time on FinancialJuice

Whoever is looking for the flashpoint, that lethal moment when the war of words and diplomatic lies turns into full-blown physical conflict between the East and the West, they will find it relatively soon if we are to believe the markets and how they are reacting this morning.

Military inspectors were taken hostage Sunday 27th April by pro-Russian supporters. They also seized regional-television headquarters in Donestsk. Last week five pro-Russian supporters were killed and Russia stated that Kiev would be called to justice (the Russian definition of justice being rather different perhaps). A Ukrainian military helicopter was also hit last Friday in gunfire. That’s called escalation; little by little until the flashpoint appears. Sanctions are expected from the USA and from the EU today.

But, war never let anybody come out of it a financial winner, even if you are the one that stands towering over the prostrate soldier on the floor at your feet. Whoever wins the Ukraine-Crimea tug-of-war between Russia and the West will still come out of it suffering.

Nobody ever wins a war and we only have to look back in history at that. But, since when did we ever learn from our mistakes?

Let’s take the United Kingdom for example in World War I:

• The country spent 20% on average of its accumulated wealth.
• Russia owed the UK money but when the Russian Revolution occurred that stated that it as a Tsarist debt rather than a Soviet one and so they refused to pay it back. The UK was owed more money by other nations than it owed the USA itself for loans.
• Many countries that Britain sold its goods to before the war seized the opportunity to set up their own industries to manufacture while the UK was busy fighting their war. When the war ended, it was too late for Britain to get back its markets. 
• The US had advanced European countries a loan of $10 billion in both goods and credit.
• Paying back the debt was a hindrance to economic growth, since the indebted countries spent money on the repayments rather than actually buying goods from the USA. 
• It was the UK and France that owed the most to the US, but they in turn found it impossible to get the money back from those that were in debt to them. It was a vicious circle of money spent and never paid back. 
• Britain ‘made’ a payment of $95.5 million in 1932, but it was based on gold in the vaults of the Bank of England that they never shipped to the USA. The USA never asked for it since it would have caused the collapse of the UK and the UK made veiled threats that they would liquidate the dollar. Virtual money transfers had just been invented. The money never got paid, the gold stayed in the UK.
• There was a moratorium on all war debts in 1931 and no repayments have been made since 1934 to any nation.

World War II was hardly any better.

• The UK paid of its final instalment of a loan to the USA and to Canada in 2006! The loan had been taken out in 1945 and totaled $4.34 billion since the UK was on the verge of bankruptcy.
• After 61 years the UK made the final repayment of that loan to the US (£43 million) and to Canada (£12million). 
• The UK had to defer repayment (it should have been paid off in 50 annual instalments) in 1956, 1957, 1964, 1965, 1968 and 1976.

That all being said, we know that nobody will come out of the Ukraine conflict with the champagne corks popping and war doesn’t relaunch an economy; it just makes it worse. Adam Smith was wrong about needing a good famine or a war to decimate the population. It may get better a generation down the line (just, maybe) but in the meantime for those of us around at the time, it will be a hard blow to the economy and yet more struggle at a time when we don’t need it. But, can we complacently sit back and let a dictatorial leader do exactly what he wants just because he feels like taking over another country. That smacks of history too. Putin used to try to pull the wool over the eyes of his electorate and the rest of the world. His thuggish attitude and his recreation of Tsarist Russia is not befitting of the times.

If the West doesn’t act, he will continue. Then, when we look back in time we shall see President Obama and the European Union just as we remember Neville Chamberlain, Prime Minister of Britain: fooled into thinking that there would be no war in Europe, stupidly waving his paper in the air with his ‘peace for our time’ speech that nobody else believed. Chamberlain’s final words that day in 1938, just before World War II erupted were ‘go home and get a nice quiet sleep’.

Originally posted: Ukraine Flashpoint

Day Trading Data Sheets Futures and Forex

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Jano's picture

He blames Putin at the end.

Putin didn't start it. it was CIA and DOS, who started the troubles.

Russia is corrupt. USA even more, you have to go arround and beg the domors for 900.000.000, if you want to get elected. and then you have to pay it back.....

But the corruption and disorder in Ua makes Russia and USA a streamline of transparebcy..

so the conclusion: russia does not need broke and corrupt Ua. Russia needs some of it's economic-strategic capacity /transport of goods, gas, oil/

USA/IMF/EU want to loot another country and do not need a corrupt&bankrupt Ua. Ua will never ever get into EU. I see Turkey and North Africa earlier in the EU, then Ua.

kchrisc's picture

I do believe the flash point was when Nuland showed up with cookies.

"Let me tell you what really happened... Every night before I go to bed, I have milk and cookies. One night I mixed some low-fat milk and some pasteurized, then I dipped my cookie in and the shit blew up" Richard Pryor

shovelhead's picture

History tells us that "Sometimes you have to destroy a village to save it."

We better act now to turn Eastern Ukraine into rubble before they can make the "wrong" choice.

It's our duty as freedom loving Americans or we will have Russians running casinos on the Mississippi.

decentralizedscutinizer's picture

I'm for replacing the Wall Street bull with a 80"statue of King Phillip IV (The Fair). Banking is a local/sovereign responsibility.

kurt's picture

Blow it out your ass War-Boy

Banker Shill Propaganda

the grateful unemployed's picture

the US has already won, they own the west half of Ukraine, and the eastern half is in chaos, and ripe for all sorts of CIA style interventions. now is the time for Obama and company to stand back and chortle and wag their finger, the game is over. its just a matter of these guys knowing they won, and not trying to make a bigger deal out of it.

Sambo's picture

The war is already won or lost before the flashpoint is reached.

rsnoble's picture

My black labs name is Sambo.

IndianaJohn's picture

PivotFarm, -- producing a bushel of corn or even potatos would show that you have worth. Pivots have no value with me.

Mr. Delicious's picture

This article is an absolute piece of shit.

lasvegaspersona's picture

With American trust in government at it's lows, it will be a real battle selling this war. I doubt Madison Avenue can pull it off.

rsnoble's picture

Maybe they wont bother selling it.

drendebe10's picture

... as if the opinion of tax paying American citizens matter to the ruling elite and the fudge packer in chief...

pupdog1's picture

"But, war never let anybody come out of it a financial winner..."

WTF ??!?

You have no concept whatsoever of history.

You need an appointment with Smedley.

SAT 800's picture

The author is clearly a moron. I'm rootin for Putin ! Anyone want to join my new club, ?. We should get bumper stickers.

kurt's picture

Rootin' Tootin' Putin the roughest, toughest hombre east of the Dnieper!

SoDamnMad's picture

I'm not rootin for Putin, Obutin or the tutins in Kiev. It's the little guy; the father, son, brother, or bestfriend who is the "boots on the ground" who will take the hit for the likes of Nuland , the oligarchs (those both east and west), the defense contractors and last THE BANKERS.  As Demi Moore so well said it, "Suck My Dick"

Save_America1st's picture

it's interesting how governments are set up with "civilian" politicians in control over the military because they don't trust the military to be smart enough and civilized enough towards the people; yet it's always those so-called "smart" and "civilized" politicians who drive nations towards war and then expect the soldiers to sacrifice their lives to protect the government from it's own psycho war mongering.   


Joe A's picture

Poorly written article. And by comparing Obama and the EU with Chamberlain you also compare Putin with Hitler. It should be clear by now that by doing that one degrades himself as a serious commentator.

I don't trust Putin very much but he is no mad raving sicko as Hitler was.

geno-econ's picture

More precisely,  "Neocon's Ukraine Fiasco With Obama's Political Apathy Will Trigger US-EU-Isreali Economic Ruin"

geno-econ's picture

More precisely,  "Neocon's Ukraine Fiasco With Obama's Political Apathy Will Trigger US-EU-Isreali Economic Ruin"

Schaublin's picture

Neville Chamberlain is reviled for being a dupe - but at the time, he was seen (and was) as a statesman doing his best to prevent another fratricidal war.

To compare Chamberlain with President Obama and the European Union (or more precisely with the real power in Washington) who are actively provoking the Russians and financing foment in the Ukraine, is a perfect example of the sophistry that will be used in the controlled media to justify war.

AdvancingTime's picture

What the "flashpoint" is or will be is not the real issue. As I write this we are engaged in a war of words but the potential for this to escalate into a shooting war is real. Allowing events to deteriorate into a major war or possibly into what some see as World War III is becoming a reality.As insane as it appears this could become the final outcome.

The location of this as a military confrontation is right in Putin's backyard and this is a strong advantage for Russia. It is silly to think Putin and Russia will back down. This means poking the bear is not a smart move. It cannot be emphasized enough this government was not elected by the people and that the military of Ukraine is divided and extremely weak. More about this subject in the article below.

Atticus Finch's picture

The writer is nuts.

If the West had sought worldwide cooperation and peace after 1991 instead of bankers running amok in Eastern Europe and Russia, gutting those countries and putting them on the ropes with mammoth debt, today's situation would not exist.

Further, if the West had not surrounded Russia and China with a phalanx of missiles and incessant megolomania activites of the Grand Chessboard and the New American Century, this situation would not exist.

If the US and the West had not fomented revolutions within the former Soviet block as a cover for NATO to surround and consume Russia, none of this would be happening.

If the Russians placed missiles along the Canadian and Mexican border and the Russian navy conducted exercises in the Gulf of Mexico, wouldn't Americans feel threatened?

The West created this situation because of its megalomaniac, psychotic and psychopathic Oligarchy.

Mitzibitzi's picture

Sadly, I'm compelled to agree.

damicol's picture

Which fucking obummer and nuland cock sucker and fluffer wrote this shite

Ides of November's picture

First post - although I've lurked here for awhile. This 'Ukraine Flashpoint' article just makes no sense, and is in fact - NONSENSE! Just for starters. (September 2013, 'protests' kick off November 2013)

Not that you will bother reading that Pivot Point.

Some other interesting dates/ appointments.

Victoria Nuland (a former Dick Cheney foreign policy advisor) - appointed as Assistant Secretary of State for European & Eurasian Affairs - September 18, 2013.

Geoffrey Pyatt (Appointed US ambassador to Ukraine) - July 30, 2013.

John Brennan - appointed as CIA director - March 8, 2013.

All fairly recent appointments, and suddenly there are protests and a coup d'etat in the Ukraine and this whole mess is thrust upon ALL OF US! The citizens of the world! Disgusting.

Maybe you missed this convo Pivot - I suggest you catch it.

Victoria Nuland & Geoffrey Pyatt and "Fuck the EU" and why "Yats" will be OUR man in Kiev.

*From February 8, 2014 - before the coup d'etat which took place a few weeks later - February 22, 2014.

A little strange don't you think the Americans were already discussing who would be the next Prime Minister of Ukraine while the democratically elected President was still in office!!

(And you blame Putin? How exactly did he kick-off this coup??????????)



SAT 800's picture

Good for you; you do a good job pointing to the real issues, here.

james.connolly's picture

The BULLSHIT is strong in this OP.

Blogger Fodder for ZH Unicorns.


james.connolly's picture

Just yesterday http://DEBKA.COM reported that OBAMA ain't going to do shit,

So the story is alreay over, now its already time to start just bending over and letting the MSM tell you that you were fucked, ignoring however that our little HILLARY/LURCH COUP at $5Billion USD failed.

So we lost Syria, and now Ukraine, ... 2/2 for PUTIN, what will 3 be for OBAMA, 3 is always a charm.

Atticus Finch's picture

That's $5,000,000,000 that didn't go to Detroit.

basho's picture

i don't think i've ever read an article by this guy that has been relevant to anything. is he a relative, or creditor or what?

Joenobody12's picture

Why the fuck did this poor excuses of an article find its way to the pages of Zerohedge ? If I want to be misinformed there is always Hofftington Post.  Time to clean house !

Dead Canary's picture

"But, can we complacently sit back and let a dictatorial leader do exactly what he wants just because he feels like taking over another country."

It wasn't Putin who overthrew the elected Ukrainian government!

NeoCon krap!

MrPalladium's picture

The issue is that the multiculturalists in charge after the collapse of the Soviet Union thought it would be a good idea to draw the borders in such a way as to have a substantial number of Russian speakers in the Baltics, Poland, and the rest of eastern Europe so as to make those countries easier to control and easier to subjugate to the Globalist plantation. Russia has every right to liberate irredent Russians. It is only the Nulands and Kagans from Tel Aviv West who want to enslave Croatian speakers and Russian Speakers by keeping them within artificial multicultural borders.

At this point Croatian speakers and Russian speakers hate and mistrust each other to such a degree that partition of the country along ethnic lines is the only humanitarian and practical solution. Failure to partition will render both groups defenseless against economic enslavement by a new group of hostile oligarchs with NYSE ticker symbols.

And only Putin supports that solution. Does that make him a monster?

Ghordius's picture

quite incorrect on many inportant details. The Soviet Union broke up along borders that were set by... the Soviet Union, last by Nikita's gift of Crimea to Ukraine. the SU satellite nations, along the post-WWII borders

Savyindallas's picture

Garbage article  -garbage conclusions. The West needs to act by getting rid of our own globlaist, scumbag warmongering criminals  - leave Putin and Russia alone. Ukraine is none of our business.

Setarcos's picture

Putin a thug!!

You hopelessly addicted to Fox, CNN, etc. Pivotfarm?

Every time that the likes of Obomber and Kerry vilify Putin/Russia, they are projecting, though never expect sociopaths to "look in the mirror", they almost always believe their lies too and not least when they often contradict themselves.

If you ever read "1984" you'd have a grip on what is going on before your denying eyes.

ebworthen's picture

Yes.  This sentence made me feel I was in Junior High Debate Class:

"His thuggish attitude and his recreation of Tsarist Russia is not befitting of the times."

Soul Glow's picture

Funny how I have no idea how Putin is recieved by media.  I know what I know - he is an oligarch, KGB, and a politician.  Do I trust oligarchs?  Do I trust the KGB?  Do I trust politicians?  No, no, and no.  Yet somehow I find him more approachable to any oligarch, spy, or politician that I know in the US.  Call it the Hegelian dialectic, call it what you will, we are all human, and root for spirit.  Find what you will in the vaprs, for they are nothing but your imagination.

Mitzibitzi's picture

Yup. I'm sure that if you annoyed Putin enough, he'd have you gutted like a pig. Still a bastard out for whatever is good for himself, personally, just less of a slimy bastard and not given to pathetically pretending that he isn't.

I guess what I mean is that you can more greatly respect a thug who tells you he is a thug - and makes no bones about what happens if you cross him - than you can some baby-kissing sociopath who pretends to be one of the good guys to your face while quietly paying lesser thugs to hang around in any dark alley you might happen to pass.

MaxThrust's picture

PivotFarm is a real amature at this blog type thing.

No one ever wins a war! hat a load of rubish. Has he not read "War is a Racket"     

Jesus H Christ

Buck Johnson's picture

This is getting bad, truly bad.


FearLess_FLY's picture

"There was a moratorium on all war debts in 1931 and no repayments have been made since 1934 to any nation."

You better check your facts buddy boy. Wasn't much,  but is real re-payment.  

Raging statements can make an article sound very shrill.

Best regards from Marla

ANDiam's picture

Actually, if you were to check for an instant, the article is completely correct. There was a debt moratorium that was agreed in 1931 and there was a delay to it until 1934, when the last international paymnent was made. 

Is there an equivalent Maria of 'buddy boy' for a girl?

Raging statements, that are not backed up by checking the information before criticism is dished out appear indeed to be very shrill. The gun just back-fired into ya face...Maria, oh Maria, Maria!


Boxed Merlot's picture

gun just back-fired into ya face...Maria...



I think you have the names mixed up.  "Marla" was / is the fight club persona who used to grace the comment sections and provided musical interludes. 

She has been missed.



Volkodav's picture

Who claims this is Chechen?  Link?