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The Jobs Report Was In Fact a Disaster

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

About that jobs report.

 

Upon closer inspection, the report was a total disaster. You wouldn’t know this from the financial media’s coverage, but it was.

 

The establishment survey shows a gain of 288,000 jobs last month. However, the household survey shows that that the economy lost 73,000 jobs in April.

 

This is critical. The household survey does not allow for “duplication of individuals,” meaning that if someone holds more than one job, they’re only counted once. In contrast, if someone is working multiple low paying jobs, every single job will be counted in the establishment survey.

 

Put it this way. If you go from one solid full time job to working as a waiter, cab driver, and tossing pizzas, the establishment survey will show that the economy created TWO jobs (one job lost plus three started= two jobs net) whereas the household survey will show NO growth (one person lost a job and started working elsewhere).

 

With this in mind, you should be paying attention to the household survey. The household survey shows 73,000 jobs were LOST. This negates the claim that 288,000 were created.

 

Aside from this oddity, we find that 806,000 people left the labor force. Moreover, reentrants (folks returning to the labor force after being unemployed) fell 417,000. And new entrants (folks entering the labor force for the first time) fell 126,000.

 

So the number of people in the labor force fell as did the number of people returning to the labor force and the number of folks entering the labor force for the first time.

 

And yet somehow the jobs picture is supposedly rosy?

 

In all honesty, this report was totally abysmal. Anyone who spent 2-3 minutes digesting it knows this. But this doesn’t stop the media from trumpeting the drop in the unemployment rate (due to nearly 1 million people leaving the labor force), nor does it counter the claims that 288K jobs were created.

 

The economy is showing serious warning signs. The fact that stocks are holding up based on misguided hope and delusion makes for a very dangerous environment similar to that of late 2007.

 

Be warned.

 

This concludes this article, swing by www.gainspainscapital.com for a FREE investment reports Protect Your Portfolio, which outlines how to protect your portfolio from bear market collapses.

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

 

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Mon, 05/05/2014 - 19:09 | 4730114 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

Wonder Y this was Discontinued?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USAAHWEP

 

So right off the bat 10+% of the total jobs should be discounted.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:38 | 4730024 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Moar Strippers!

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 17:48 | 4729859 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Do you ever stop and listen to the bond market just for a second it would do wonders to control the moss

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 17:26 | 4729770 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Apparently we get very few realtors on this site or else they would be schooling us in why a) the recovery is real and they are selling shit ganbusters, or b) it is a terrible economy and they ain't sellin shit except high-end stuff to the 1%

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 17:18 | 4729743 Conax
Conax's picture

Hell I got three jobs last week myself.

I cleaned out old Mrs. Parker's garage, re-roofed a garden shed for the neighbors and replaced a burnt out sump pump in my friend's basement. 

I'm on a roll!  I'm planning to paint my name on the truck door and be somebody.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 15:04 | 4729215 Puncher75
Puncher75's picture

Hope & Change!!

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 22:34 | 4729429 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

These economists and financial pundits are either complete deluded morons or pathological liers when it is clear that either you have a job or not.  Count the people ONE time....either way....that's it.

It's amazing that these idiots come on the air and wonder why it seems like America is spinning its wheels.  All you have to do is look at 4 charts.

Labor Participation Rate.

http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5229f72a6bb3f7b741b36aab/the-la...

Food Stamp Rate

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2012/Sept/food-stamps-image002.jpg

Household Survey Rate

http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ABOOK-May-201...

Average YoY Hourly Wage Rate

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2012...

 

That's it !!   Look at these 4 charts and they tell you pretty much the whole story about the economy.  Why doesn't someone smarter than me get on CNBS and show these charts when some fool like Cramer or Liesman or Krugman or Lavorgna comes on and spouts off about the numbers not being that bad.  Show them these 4 CHARTS OF THE APOCALYPSE and dare them to say another fucking word.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:39 | 4729103 whidbey-2
whidbey-2's picture

Yes the raw number (counters) times it weighted value (hours worked) = get the grand jury.  Of course no crime we want to believe just the counters, don't we?  This can not be real.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:34 | 4729082 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

I skim read this headline as.....

The Jobs Report was a Fucking Disaster

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:31 | 4729065 TheABaum
TheABaum's picture

Joe Wilson was right. 

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:27 | 4729052 Fix-ItSilly
Fix-ItSilly's picture

these types of articles should, as a minimum, tell us the # increase in those receiving Social Security and added to disability roles.  Being that the baby boomer gen is retiring, it should be recognized as normal that this population bulge is a principal, expected contributor to "those leaving the workforce".  And they are entitled to retiree without doomsayers making hay over numbers they don't know how to interpret.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:00 | 4729899 elwind45
elwind45's picture

If you retire after 64 you drop off automatic. Are not counted. Yet if you work past 65 you are adjusted off. What is the true problem is income growth? The workers with the greatest income are not retiring or not replaced! And its gaining momentum.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:09 | 4728979 Polymarkos
Polymarkos's picture

Are there ANY numbers we can trust?

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:48 | 4730049 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Possibly "ShadowStats."

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 15:51 | 4729421 Memedada
Memedada's picture

I have some trust in the number 3. It seems to be very stable.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:22 | 4729026 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

The ones on the sports page....but that is it.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:25 | 4729036 Uchtdorf
Uchtdorf's picture

Nope, those are rigged, too.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 13:59 | 4728940 kurt
kurt's picture

Nice comparison

Thanks for looking behind the lies. 

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 13:57 | 4728933 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Ignorance is strength."

Brian Williams on the Nightly News told me so.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 15:47 | 4729399 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

Hah, Bryan Williams - isn't he a Canuck import?

I suppose they are attempting to end with something positive, since in general, the news is very negative. But,just tell the truth once in a while, would ya?

 

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:02 | 4728955 kurt
kurt's picture

I love how he ends his reports with an uplifting, difference makers, report. You know, those inspiring, hopeful stories that tie the ribbon around the fetid, pustulant fly-blown shit pile they call the news. Its inpiring really and gives me hope to carry on. 

 

God Bless 

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:15 | 4729937 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Don't cha cry no more

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 14:47 | 4729141 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Vomitus courtesy of GE (bringing good things to light, like how fucked we are)

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 15:41 | 4729385 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

And the International Turd Polishers Guild.

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 13:56 | 4728929 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

And to think that as a teenager I thought Winston Smith's "job" preposterous.

 

Mon, 05/05/2014 - 18:10 | 4729924 elwind45
elwind45's picture

And GUY MONTAG. Who needs a fireman if you just stop making books because people hate that dumb stuff

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