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What Jim Rogers Is Buying Right Now

Asia Confidential's picture




 

The following is an extract of an interview with Jim Rogers as part of our new publication, Asia's Money Masters.

Asia's Money Masters: You've been warning for some time that central bank actions since 2008 have created even deeper problems for the world and a more serious day of reckoning will come. Does that remain your base case?

Jim Rogers: Yes, absolutely. We have all of the major central banks printing staggering amounts of money. We've got this artificial ocean of liquidity out there and it has to end someday. When it does, it’s going to be very difficult.

The US is cutting back stimulus while Japan and the EU may be providing additional QE at some point this year. How do you see that playing out? Are emerging markets where the main risks lay?

JR: The main risk lies with the US. The US market is near all-time highs. Emerging markets have gone down a lot already. The risk though is everywhere, including emerging markets.

What kind of triggers are you looking for to indicate that a deeper correction may be near?

JR: A deeper correction may have already begun for all I know, though I doubt it. Usually what happens when markets peak is that you have marginal players going down first.

We're already starting to see some marginal countries and marginal companies decline. If you look at the advance-decline statistics in the US stock market for instance - the indices are making highs but the number of stocks which are making new highs has collapsed.

When a more serious correction starts, what will probably happen is that the US will continue to cut back QE, but at some point it will cause enough pain that the politicians and bureaucrats will give in and stop any further tapering. At that point, markets will breathe a big sigh of relief, resume their climb and then it may even turn into a bubble. At that point, it’ll be the last hurrah.

Let's move on briefly to one of the issues making headlines: Ukraine. Markets have largely shrugged off that issue. Is there a chance that they’re wrong and this could turn into a deeper crisis?

JR: Well, of course. You go back and look at the history of war - people make mistakes. Country “A” makes a mistake and then country “B” makes a mistake, and all of a sudden, you have people at war. In 1914 for instance, within 6-8 months of the war beginning, people all over the world, including Europe, were saying: “How did we get into this?” That was because it was so absurd what was going on. And yet they didn’t manage to end the war until four years later.

That’s often how things start. It could happen in Ukraine, but I doubt it. The US and EU don’t seem interested in engaging in a war over Ukraine. But you never know. Throughout history people have bungled themselves into wars even though nobody really wanted them.

Even under a worst case scenario such as war, Russian equities look cheap at around five times earnings. Are you a buyer of Russian equities at these levels?

JR: Yes, I bought some in March. And I’ll probably buy more before long.

Jim Rogers pic REVISED3Jim Rogers has led a life that many investors would love to emulate. Growing up as a “poor boy from Alabama” Rogers worked hard as a student, graduating with degrees from Yale and Oxford Universities.

He then worked even harder starting a career on Wall Street. In 1970, he joined investment bank, Arnhold and S. Bleichroder, where he met one, George Soros.

Rogers and Soros went out on their own in 1973, founding the Quantum Fund. During the next ten years, the fund gained 4200% compared with the S&P 500’s 47% advance.

That allowed Rogers to retire at the age of 37. Well, not quite retire. He travelled around the world twice, once by motorbike and the other by car, and wrote books about the trips.

“Retirement” also allowed Rogers to invest his own money. And it’s here where he’s made some now famous calls. Rogers was talking up China’s long-term prospects in the 1980s. It’s hard to realise now but very few saw China’s potential during this period.

In 1998, Rogers founded a commodities index on the view that commodities had bottomed and were set for a multi-decade bull market. To say this call was spot on would be an understatement.

Rogers has made money from a host of other eclectic investments, including from stocks in the African nation of Botswana, where he recognised this country’s potential early on.

Rogers is a deeply contrarian investor with an almost innate curiosity and ability to sought facts from noise.

It seems he’s passing on these values to the next generation. Rogers moved his family from New York to Singapore in 2007 because of his belief in the long-tem rise of Asia. But also so his first daughter could learn Mandarin to prepare for the future.

It’s in Singapore where Asia’s Money Masters caught up with Rogers.


Turning to Asia and the economy everyone's focused on: China. You’re on record saying that the economic slowdown in China won't get too serious. Do you maintain that view?

JR: I'm not sure where I said that. Where did I say that?

You've said that there’s unlikely to be an economic crash like famed short-seller, Jim Chanos, and others are forecasting.

JR: That’s not right. What I’ve said is that China is the next great country in the world. There’ll certainly be setbacks along the way.

In the 19th century as America was rising to power, it had 15 depressions, a horrible Civil War, massacres in the streets and little in the way of human rights. And yet, America turned out to be pretty successful.

China will have setbacks along the way. I have no idea what, when, why or how. But China is the largest creditor nation in the world and if and when they have setbacks, I would rather be investing money with creditor nations such as China than debtor nations.

I have frequently said that we’ll have people in the real estate business going bankrupt in China because the government is trying to cool off that particular sector. But on the other hand, other parts of the Chinese economy will continue to do extremely well.

If you’re in agriculture in China, you won’t know whether real estate speculators in Shanghai are going broke because you’ll be too busy making money yourself.

Would you suggest that property and local government are the areas which are most vulnerable in China right now?

JR: Well, Beijing has said they want property prices to come down.

They've been saying that for a long time without much long-lasting success…

JR: They’ve said it on several times and every time in the past when prices were softening, property executives went begging to Beijing and Beijing loosened policy again.

This time, as property prices weaken, the government is again loosening policy. But there will come a time where it doesn't matter how much authorities ease policy: if you have excess supply, you have excess supply. And you won’t be able to do anything about it. We’re certainly getting closer to that point now.

Conversely, the areas which should still thrive even in an economic downturn: your focus has been on agriculture, water and tourism – do they remain the best structural plays on Chinese growth?

JR: Those are some of them. Beijing has said that it will let market forces play a greater role in the future. That’s fabulous as far as I’m concerned. It’s ironic that in ‘Red” China, you’ll have the market playing a larger role. On the other hand, in the West, people seem to be saying that the government is smarter than the market.

But in China, healthcare is going to get a gigantic push. Railroads, cleaning up pollution and farming too. The government has also said that it’ll open up the financial sector. I think it’s serious about this and I bought a few shares in a financial company recently as a consequence.

Let's turn from the world’s second largest economy to the third: Japan. You've been a critic of Abenomics. Can you outline exactly why?

JR: Japan has decided that it’s going to debase the currency and drive up inflation. That’s never been a good solution to any problems throughout history. Politicians sometimes can go: “We can control inflation” or “we can control currencies”. Sometimes that can work in the short-run but it’s never worked in the long run.

Shinzo Abe says he has three arrows to get the Japanese economy back on track. The third arrow is probably going end up in Japan's back.

I own Japanese shares because of Mr Abe’s money printing policies. But I think everyone is going to look back at this period in 10-15 years and say: “that’s what finally ruined Japan”.

As you mention, Japan is trying to depreciate the yen. Do you see the yen heading a lot lower over the next 12 to 24 months?

JR: I’m long the Yen at the moment mainly because there are such huge short positions in the currency- one of the highest short positions that I’ve ever seen. As I mentioned, I’m not particularly optimistic about Japan or the yen in the long term, but for the moment I remain long the yen. Eventually I’ll sell my yen because the current easy money policies in Japan cannot continue indefinitely.

Note that I’m also long the US Dollar even though I’m not particularly optimistic about the long-term picture there either. But I expect more turmoil – certainly currency turmoil. And in periods of currency turmoil throughout history, the US dollar and yen have been perceived as safe havens. They’re not safe havens, but I suspect that they will again be among the currencies which people will go to for safety during the next serious downturn.

The full interview with Jim Rogers can be found here.

 

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Mon, 05/19/2014 - 09:04 | 4773198 elwind45
elwind45's picture

He sold America out at the bottom to invest in CHINA at the top? A true WANK in every sense of the word!

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 08:58 | 4773174 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Obviously SOROS was the brains and Rodgers the fat finger!

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 08:36 | 4773112 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Everybody talkin at me I don't hear a word they saying! Only the echoes of their minds? NOBODY EVEN ASKING THE BILLIONAIRE-savant about his call for ever higher interest rates and a collapse in something or other? Didn't once call for lower long term rates and the bowtie has spittle from his huge losses from past couple of years? ALWAYS WHAT HE THINKS AND NOT WANTS ON THE BOOK!

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 08:34 | 4773102 F-X
F-X's picture

OK, anyone that gave this more than a one rating is an idiot.

Go to the link. Look at the opening paragraph:

Strategy: Jim Rogers
"He’s bought a Chinese financial company, remains long the yen and thinks Korean unification will happen soon."

What did he actually say? Scroll about 1/3 of the way down:

 "I bought a few shares in a financial company recently."

How does buying a few shares translate to buying a company? 

Ridiculous!

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 08:29 | 4773089 elwind45
elwind45's picture

This guy continues to search for his inter SOROS?

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 04:35 | 4772869 August
August's picture

All I know fer sure is that once I've departed this vale of woe, those I leave behind will smile and say "now there was a real Money Master."  Still not Asian, though.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 22:45 | 4772625 joego1
joego1's picture

"He travelled around the world twice, once by motorbike and the other by car, and wrote books about the trips."

I'm surprised he wasn't kidnapped in Yankastan. He has a lot of balls that's for sure.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 22:30 | 4772586 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

I used to appreciate Rogers' comments 8-10 years ago. The last couple of years he still hammers some of his talking points (like global money printing) but when he tells us some of what he is buying now it seems more and more like what he is recommending actually flies in the face of his talking points and his 'supposed' principles. How can you be long the yen when they are the biggest money printers around? and if you are long the yen, it means the dollar will weaken - so gold drops? it looks more like Rogers is just pimping his own trades - just like the other Wall Street shills.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 06:30 | 4772950 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

he explains this at the end of the article pretty well....he is long yen and usd only for a period of time, long term he is not optimistic about these two. also your statement that long yen means the dollar will weaken....this just isn't true, or i dont get what you are getting at. 

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 06:00 | 4772929 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

The Yen....fear trade.....

Money printing has nothing to do with it dude....FX trading wise...

Check any yen chart when Foookasheema happened.....

Fear.....study up

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 22:09 | 4772546 WSP
WSP's picture

U said it much better than I and u nailed it good job!

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 21:57 | 4772523 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Rogers says:

JR: That’s partly it. It was very abnormal what happened in gold – it had 12 years without a single down year. Gold hasn’t even had at a single 50% correction in at least 14 years. That’s very strange! Most assets correct 50% at some point, even in big bull markets. So the price action in gold is still abnormal, in my view.

Also, the fundamentals remain challenging. Indian politicians are blaming their problems on gold. At one point they were trying to force Indians to sell their gold. They may try that again. India has been the largest consumer of gold in the world for years and if the politicians get locals to sell their gold, who knows how low gold could go.

The only thing stopping the price of gold is government manipulation. It happens here and it happens in India. The producers will quit producing at 900. Rogers may never see the day when gold corrects 50% up until such point that goverments quit printing asswipe and the world starts paying its debts.

 

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 23:09 | 4772672 The wheels on t...
The wheels on the bus are going to fall off's picture

Most assets correct 50% at some point? maybe in the past, but the markets are fucked these days and the fundamentals behind Gold making a move are quite unprecedented. Besides hasnt gold moved from 1900 to 1100 over the last few years...

Tell me this, how does the US dollar value continue to decline and Gold then is expected to do the same thing, if gold goes up, its because the US dollar is declining, this is not a matter of if, but when.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 08:50 | 4773149 elwind45
elwind45's picture

How come the dollar is still the reserve currrency? If rates have fallen from overnight 15% to now .25% in 30 years and long rates are resuming their fall as we muse when and where is the collapse going to REAR ITS UGLY HEAD? Never has there been a better stock buying time than when 30 yr is pluming lower yields or you got them on board. The fear and panic trade so JUMP THE FUCK OFF!

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 19:56 | 4772203 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Jim is a little pissed b/c he did not buy gold when the price bottomed. He's over the hill now and I'm sure his 'staff' of MBAs is doing the investing and advising for him these days while he enjoys the peaceful nights, fine food and great women of Singapore.

I'd prefer listening to advice for someone still in the trenches.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 20:46 | 4772352 JerseyJoe
JerseyJoe's picture

He has enough gold and is only hoping to buy lower.  Wishful thinking. 

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 08:56 | 4773169 elwind45
elwind45's picture

Hoping? He is a billionaire-Sevant and every idea and principle is about making money and hoping you take the bait? He could make his own price on your lily white arse?

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 15:19 | 4771671 Magooo
Magooo's picture

No Jim. China will not be a great country.

 

Money printing is about one thing - trying to offset the crushing pressure that 100+ oil puts on growth.

 

Obviously that will fail - and then civilization as we know it - ENDS

 

HIGH PRICED OIL DESTROYS GROWTH

According to the results of a quantitative exercise carried out by the IEA in collaboration with the OECD Economics Department and with the assistance of the International Monetary Fund Research Department, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices.  http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/high_oil04sum.pdf

 

Oil's been over 100 bucks for what --- 7 years?  Now imagine what a sustained price like that does to growth....

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 06:22 | 4772942 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Magooo..for someone that can't see, your post was 20 fucking 20

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 17:36 | 4771871 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I agree that China will certainly be short-lived without some serious tech. development.  Russia on the other hand is just screaming out from its fundamentals though.  Seriously.  If I have ever been long a country it is Russia right now.

The only question is whether their currency collapses, or not.  It may well collapse in the near term as their currency reserves get drained while trying to defend the currenct.

Either way, legit bullish on Russia.  Legit bullish on a couple of select Japanese stocks also.  Not so bullish on China right now, but that might change moving forward. 

Depending on how Putin plays this military chess game in Ukraine there could be a serious amount of money to  be made in Russia long-term.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 00:48 | 4772792 GlobalCtzn
GlobalCtzn's picture

Russia looks good compared to most right now I must agree. But in the longer term I believe the plan is for there to be NO strong, sovereign, healthy nation states. TPTB intend to destroy money, destroy sovereignty, destroy the people's trust and confidence in any and all of it. And when it has all gone to shit and the curruption has run its course and sucked the vitality out of the whole room, nothing left to plunder, then they will 'save' us all with the next paradigm, whatever it is they have conjured. I have no answers that feel in any way certain, but I can see the fucking train wreck coming as clear as day..................

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 15:19 | 4771670 Leveraged
Leveraged's picture

Funny how Jim is rolling back on there won't be a China crash.  Hope he stays there with his commie loving ass.  I'm so, tired of hearing how China's economy is the next big thing.  I've yet to see them innovate anything.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 15:28 | 4771689 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Same was said of Japan back in the 1960's.
Are you old enough to remember their first export cars ?
They ended up designing and developing NEW world class
product.They just fucked up on everything else.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 06:26 | 4772946 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

The problem with the Japs is two-fold.

1. Their Shinto fucked up relgious ancient - fucked up - belief system.

2. 100% we import everything we have to have to our rock collection of islands.....

Those two things - along with their print-a-palooza mentality, is/are the Japs ball and chain(s)

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 21:16 | 4772435 moonstears
moonstears's picture

Dr. W E Deming, an American, had very  much to do with Japan's success in the 60's. Look him up.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 05:21 | 4772890 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

+1

Deming...and setting up essentially brand new state of the art American machinery and assembly lines with which to build things. Combined with the Japanese people's work ethic and employer loyalty. The Japanese had no unions to prevent new and radical ideas on innovation and automation from being implemented. As with all things, eventually a natural limit to growth is reached and then the powers that be goose the economy to "keep the party going"...and voila here we are 20+ years later and they've gone no further. It's not that Japan failed so to speak, the other countries simply caught up with it in technology and processes.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 19:53 | 4772193 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

You know how the Japanese are called? The Asian Germans.

Contrary to Japan, in China it doesn't really matter if a meter has 90 or 110 cm.

China is making huge progress, but it's also interesting to see, that big bridges or multifamily homes collapse without an earthshake.

Rogers could be perfectly correct, but so far I haven't seen the necessary cultural shift to become a technology leader. The big chance for China could be, that among the blind the one-eyed is king: with the coloring and White genocide in the USA and Europe, these countries will degrade more and more and sink to second and third world levels (politics and culture follows biology). Just look at South Africa.

 

 

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 18:41 | 4772037 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Two problems with your extremely stupid comment; one; 1.) it's not 1960, 2.) Japan is not China. Have a nice day.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 15:43 | 4771700 garypaul
garypaul's picture

That just bolsters Leverage's comment

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 16:03 | 4771727 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

You buy Japanese as a value play.  When you want quality, and will pay for it, you buy European.  In all other cases, American will do. 

So what is left, but buying Chinese, when you would never pay that Chinese price for anything remotely quality, but there they are selling, and there you are buying.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 15:14 | 4771660 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

It seems to me that Jim is saying that he knows that various horses are heading for the knackery but for the time being he is riding them. I just hope he knows when to dismount before they collapse.

Then again, isn't that what so many investors are doing? They are so hungry for yield that they are buying rubbish because the short term allure is outweighing the longer term dangers.

Liquidity and cash flow will be the downfall of all of us when things go south.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 05:30 | 4772903 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Love him or hate him, the man is brilliant, just as is one of the most evil men on earth, Soros, from whom he learned. These guys have insider info you could only dream of. Yes, Jim is a trader and moves in and out of things contrarian style knowing that's how you stay ahead if the herd...when the herd comes his way he sells to them and buys the next thing to come. Buy and hold died many years ago, but it will come back sure as day. Graham was right...intrinsic value is where money should flow to, not an Amazon/Twitter/Facebook.... with 1% margins and no plan in sight to ever raise them.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 13:46 | 4771543 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Very useful information about the huge short positions in the Yen; as this information is "visible" to him with his professional research teams; but not to me. Re-thinking my present Short Yen contracts; I may cancell them; they're already a little under water.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 17:17 | 4771846 SameAsItEverWas
SameAsItEverWas's picture

CFTC release the COT data PUBLICLY every Wednesday!

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 13:48 | 4771541 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

 While I will concede that Rogers has proven himself a force I beg to differ with the risk he sees concerning Japan.  The country continues to slide towards an economic abyss with each passing day. The writing is on the wall. Japan is facing a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing their currency. This means paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made.

Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its GDP and is the highest in the industrialized world. The moment the Japaneses stock market fails to rise enough to offset inflation this will turn into a tsunami of  money fleeing Japan and constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGBs and the yen. This has been a long time coming and I contend the cross-border flow of money leaving Japan is why some stock markets have remained so resilient . When Japan crumbles it will be felt across the world. More on this subject in the article below.

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 19:40 | 4772162 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

Do not confuse (Rogers') mid-term outlook for the Yen with your very long term outlook of a bancrupt Japan.

Rogers is not optimistic on Japan. Always take time frames into account.

 

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 17:46 | 4771900 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

Meh.  Come on man.. Japan is not going to cease to exist as a nation unless China wipes them off the face of the earth.  They will have some hard times, sure.  No question.  Their debt is approaching critical mass levels.  

Here is the thing though.. Japanese debt is almost exclusively held internally.  That means their government has control of the write-offs and maintains sovereignty, provided they don't get strung up by the people first.  You try doing that with external debt ie: USA, Europe.  Much of the Western world.  That shit will cause wars, or allow opponents to start seizing physical assets.

In fact the additional risk caused by a Japan sov. debt default could easily destabilize the global credit markets and trigger a knock-on domino effect.  Everyone is out saying the US is the "cleanest dirty shirt".  I'd personally give that title to Russia.

(And yes, I will probably be downvoted into the next century for saying that with American readers.  But I am sorry folks, it is the truth.  Having faced the pain of their 1990s default, Russia is re-emerging as a fairly strong player on the global scene.) 

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 15:00 | 4771637 WSP
WSP's picture

Jim Rogers is just another criminal that talks his own book---he is not in the business of giving free investment advice and I will never understand why so many people listen to criminals like him or any of the other free investment advice providers.  What's worse, Jim Rogers is a Judas Goat because, as you pointed out, he has "proven himself a force", but that is only because he is good at "timing" of his public disclosures.  He tells everyone what he is "buying" when he first starts to sell, and continues to sell in to strength.  Gold is a good example.  Rogers was pumping the metals when they start their assent and said to keep buying while he was unloading.  Now, he wants the price to drop so he can buy more. He has repeated this patter with China stocks and Russian stocks----ROGERS IS A CRIMINAL THUG just like all of the rest of the "free investment advice" book pumpers. 

Note, in the end I am not mad at Rogers or any of the other criminals that pump their books----the people to despise are those that allow these criminals to have a platform to fleece and rip off others.  Jim Rogers is a thug, a criminal, a liar----made worse by the fact that he is better at making people think he is on their side.  But in the end, people do have a responsiblity not to give these criminals a platform.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 08:32 | 4773097 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

I've always liked Rogers, but to compare the Quantum Fund to the Beatles, Rogers is Paul to Soros' John.  We know now who was doing most of the work in the group, and see what they've done since splitting up.

Rogers was short domestic tech stocks and the entire Indian market this past couple of years while long agriculture and gold, though he wasn't saying to buy more of that. I don't know if he's made any money at all this past few years. We know Soros has made boodles though.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 21:18 | 4772441 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

Couldn't agree more. Truth is, I can't remember a single time when Rogers never said "I'll buy gold when it goes lower" he always says that. Gold is just never low enough for him, ever. HE'S ALWAYS TALKING GOLD LOWER.

 I'm sick of this scumbag.

 The US is going to collpase because of Fed policies, blah, blah.  China will rule the world, blah, blah, blah. I'll buy gold when it goes lower, blah, blah, fucking blah. You're right, he's a criminal.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 05:36 | 4772909 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Jim buys gold all the time...he just buys physical not ETF. Sure he and Soros buy ETF for trading and hedging positions along the way, but rest assured he buys physical every chance he gets and NEVER sells physical. The paper price of good will effectively go to zero in future, but not physical. Learn the difference now or pay the price later.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 19:35 | 4772153 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

Regarding Gold you are totally wrong.

Rogers was the lonely shouter in the desert in 2012. He had been ridiculed, because he repeated it so often: Extremely seedom that a commodity rises 12 years in a row, I don't know of any. A 50% correction is nothing unusual. Even more after such a long run.

That's what Rogers said, while Sprott, Casey, Schiff were pumping.

 

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 20:57 | 4772373 Tegrat
Tegrat's picture

My thoughts exactly. He's still bearish so $1900/2 ~ $900.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 08:37 | 4773115 Againstthelie
Againstthelie's picture

Yes overall Gold is not a by for him yet as a trader.

And reading between the lines he first expects deflationary falling prices everywhere ("if the artificial ocean of liquidity dries up") before the bancrupty of the West will become a topic.

 

The best investment advice I ever received, was not from Graham's book but from Rogers: be patient. It can be the most difficult thing not to be invested.

IMO this advice alone separates him from the rest. Because only if you learn to watch potential investments rise or fall without being invested, and thousand carrots are hanging in front of your nose, and you know, WHY you did not buy and you stay at your plan, then you develop the necessary robustness not to follow the herd and not to fall victim to fear and greed.

That's Rogers.

 

And before someone calls him criminal, I'd suggest to look why he split from Soros.

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 10:12 | 4773440 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

+100

Mon, 05/19/2014 - 06:13 | 4772914 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I continue to maintain that Silver is far, far more attractive than gold right now as a speculative hedge against risk.

Pros:
-Approx. 60% devaluation since its highs.
-Linked to industrial production.  Many good interesting metallurgic qualities.
- Given cheaper price /oz could easily be bypassed by individual investors as a way to protect against issues with currency, even with less purchasing power.  Assuming the average individual ever manages to pull their head out of their arse.  Still a liquid physical asset.
- Recycled silver is now starting to bottom out.   Mining operations are increasingly unprofitable putting further squeeze on production.
- Likely that physical stock is being purchased hand over fist to lock in the low price right now by any industrial producers who require it for their products.
- Futures recently moved out of contango and are in backwardation.  Could potentially be bullish.  

Cons:
- Lack of liquidity in the market means all sorts of games can be played with the price, leading to volatility.
- Paper silver IOUs mean massive expansion of theoretical supply (Thanks Blythe)
- If the situation goes bad and silver looks set to break-out I fully expect the vengeful forces that be to shaft silver holders ANY way they can.
- I feel dirty for owning it.  Expecting SWAT to ram-raid my house any day. 

Both gold & silver are probably still good to hold for a currency, or financial collapse type scenario.  Though in the US, at least in the near-term I do not see financial collapse as a possibility.  Other types of crises?  Yes.  Possibly.  Financial collapse?  Unlikely.  At least not initially.  Depending on how things play out it could happen later.  

Edit: And one final thing that most investors probably aren't counting on, and that I literally haven't heard anywhere in the media, is people's propensity to hold gold/silver regardless of price trends.  People see it as a function of wealth preservation than a conventional investment asset (with associated opportunity cost.)   It is deemed to be prudent to hold for a "rainy day" and macroeconomic storm clouds are looming on the horizon.  I'm happy to hold my physical for the next decade, regardless of price trends.  Though if prices rise substantially I might be tempted to part with a small portion of it.   JR mentions a "desperation moment" for commodities as his buy-in point.  That moment is unlikely to come for me unless the world somehow morphs into a utopia in the next 10 years.  The price of a commodity is NEVER going to be zero, and I would rather hold liquid physical assets than get torn apart by trading risky financial assets.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 18:34 | 4772024 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Bollox.

I've been following Rogers' calls and he has a far better record than any other public pundit I know. Is he right all the time? No. No one is.

As for 'criminal' - look in the mirror, you lying cunt.

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 18:44 | 4772046 WSP
WSP's picture

Okay pardon me I didn't realize that a billionaire would gladly make the rounds nonstop on propaganda tours out of an altruistic love for his fellow man...for a billionaire he sure does work hard to "help us" with all his free advice...u know what they say about free advice...it isn't free. U r not really as stupid as u sound r u? U r joking right?

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 22:41 | 4772618 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

wsp, you're an idiot.

it's a gross misuse of language to call jim rogers a "criminal" or a "thug" - he is neither!

jim rogers does not steal from people, nor does he beat people up and take their money.

if you don't understand what words mean, then STFU and stop using them.

it's fine to disagree and to say you think he's wrong, but to call jim rogers a criminal and a thug is completely out of line!

if anything, YOU are the criminal for your slanderous comments about jim rogers.

i hope he sues you for your publicly posted slanderous comments, and you lose everything you own!

 

Sun, 05/18/2014 - 19:30 | 4772149 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Does he have an agenda? Yes. As do you. And I. And everyone else expressing their opinion.

He is one of the staunchest and most vociferous anti-central-planning, free market advocates out there, and his calls are - more often than not - good.

He likes selling his books, hearing himself speak, and persuading the public his worldview is correct. People who follow his advice do well... you can object that he doesn't do this through altruism - what is 'altruism', by the way? - but that doesn't make him 'criminal', does it, faux-wise one.

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