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Euro Sold on ECB Speculation, Will it be Bought on the Fact ?

Marc To Market's picture




 

The European Central Bank meeting is on June 5.  It is among the most important events of the first half and possibly the entire year.  After much preparation and jawboning, the ECB is widely expected to take unconventional measures counter the low inflation and risk of deflation.  It may also announce fresh initiatives to help facilitate financing for small and medium sized businesses. 

 

In anticipation of this, the euro has been sold.  It declined by about 1.8% on the month.   The net speculative position in the futures market swung to favor shorts.   We suspect the market is particularly vulnerable to "sell the rumor and buy the fact" activity.  This is what has happened when the Fed has announced its quantitative easing programs:  the dollar would sell off in anticipation and then rally on the announcement. 

 

The euro's four cent decline pushed it below $1.3600 briefly.   The 38.2% retracement objective of the rally off last July's lows is found near $1.3520.  However, the decline has stretched the technical indicators.  The RSI has already turned up, and the MACDs are about to cross higher.  

 

This dovetails with our suspicion of "sell the rumor buy the fact" behavior in response to the ECB.  This may be counter-intuitive, but this is essentially what happened in the past.  When the Fed announced QE, it was often well anticipated, and the dollar sold off until it was announced and then rallied.   We suspect that the challenges the ECB faces are not something that 10-15 bp of rate cuts, and even a negative deposit rate, will convincingly address.   Once the event risk passes, investors may return to form and chase yield. 

 

If this analysis is correct, what kind of bounce can the euro have?  The first objective is the $1.3720-40 area,    The next target would be in the $1.3780-$1.3820 area.  If  the ECB does genuinely surprise, the $1.3520 is the initial target on a break of $1.3580. 

 

Sterling declined 3 cents against the dollar in May.  This was among its worst monthly performances in the past year.  The technical outlook is somewhat similar, though sterling's 200-day moving average (just below $1.6400) was not tested.  The RSI has turned up, but the MACDs do not appear as close to turning as the euro's.  The initial upside objective is the $1.6810-40 band.  On the downside, a break of the $1.6700 area risks a move toward $1.6625. 

 

There are two forces underpinning the yen.  First, the US 10-year premium over Japan has fallen to its lowest level since last August.  Second, market expectations of new stimulus by the BOJ are being reconsidered.  Previously the overwhelming majority expected new measures by the end of July.  We have long argued this was jumping the gun and, if there is to be more monetary stimulus, it would likely be later. 

 

 

The technical indicators for the yen are broadly neutral.  The two yen range that confined the dollar in May looks set to continue.  A trend line off the April high near JPY104.10 and the May high near 103 caught the past week's high near JPY102.15.  On the downside, the dollar, the market appear cautious about pushing the dollar much below the 200-day moving average found near JPY101.40. 

 

Over the past two week, the euro has carved out a shelf near JPY138.  Technical signals here seem clearer than against dollar-yen.  Provided the shelf holds, the euro can rise toward JPY139.65 and possibly JPY140.  This fits in well with a sell the rumor buy the fact activity around the ECB meeting. 

 

The Canadian dollar was the strongest major currency in the month of May, appreciating 1% against the US dollar.  However, the US dollar recorded a low near CAD1.0815 on May 8-9 and the retest at the end of last week was aborted after the weaker than expected Q1 GDP figures (1.2% rather than 1.8% consensus) and industrial product prices actually declined (-0.2% whereas the consensus anticipated a 0.4% rise).  

 

The Bank of Canada, which meets on June 4, is particularly sensitive to the downside risks of inflation.  It follows soft retail sales and jobs report.  No rate cut can be reasonably expected, but a dovish statement could see the US dollar move back toward CAD1.0950. 

 

 

The Australian dollar was the best performing major currency last week, rising about 0.8% against the greenback.  This was roughly four times the advance of the yen, which was the strongest currency.  The decline in global interest rates helped solidify the $0.9200 base, which was tested half a dozen times in May.   The downtrend line drawn off the April and May high comes near $0.9375 at the end of next week.  However, more immediate resistance near $0.9335 held Aussie upticks in check ahead of the weekend.  Support is pegged near $0.92870-85. 

 

The Mexican peso was flat in the past week, though the dollar saw its recent losses extended toward MXN12.825, which represents the new 2104 low.  The RSI and MACDs look neutral, but fresh downticks have been difficult to sustain.   There has been a large build-up of speculative peso longs in the futures market.  A dollar advance through the MXN12.90 would encourage a test on the down trendline drawn off the late-January high, the March high and the late April high.    It comes in near MXN12.95.  

 

 Observations from the speculative positioning in the CME futures market:  

 

1.  With a couple week lag behind the euro, the net speculative position swung to the short side for the Swiss franc in the latest Commitment of Traders report that covers the week through May 27.  It is the first net short franc position in three months.  

 

2.  The net speculative position is short four of the seven currency futures we track here:  euro, yen, Swiss franc and Canadian dollar. 

 

3.  There were no major (10k contract shift of more) gross position adjustment over the past week.  The largest position adjustment was the gross long peso positions, which grew 9.1k contracts to 101.8k. This is the largest gross long position since last June.  The net position of 83.3k contracts is also the largest since last June.

 

4.  The general pattern in the latest reporting period was for the gross short currency futures positions to have increased.  The only exception was for sterling.   Gross shorts were pared by 3.8k contracts to 43.1.  The gross long positions were cut for the euro (-4.3k contracts to 70.8k), the yen (-1.7k contracts to 17.0k), sterling (-1.6k contracts to 78.4k) and the Swiss franc (-5,8k contracts to 11.6k). 

 

5.  The other three currencies saw an increase in the gross long positions: Canadian dollar (+6.1k to 32.6k contracts), the Australian dollar (+1.9 to 52.k contracts), and the Mexican peso, that we already discussed as the largest gross position adjustment. 

 

6.  The month of May saw the net speculative position for both the euro and franc shift to the short side. During the month, the net short yen and Canadian dollar positions were reduced, while the net long sterling position was also cut.  The net position in the Australian dollar was little changed.  The net long peso position grew. 

 

7.  Given the focus on the US bond market rally, we looked at the Commitment of Traders for the 10-year Treasury note futures.  There was a large adjustment to positions.  Both long and shorts were cut. The latter more than the former and this led to sharp reduced in the next short position to 19.1k contracts from 97.9k.  The gross short position was slashed by 131k contracts to 398.4k.  This is the largest short covering since December 2012.  The gross short position returned to late April levels. The gross long position was cut by 52.1k contracts to 379.3k.  Up until now there was no evidence from the futures market that the bond rally was a product of short-covering.  The reporting week ending May 20 saw the net short position rise to it highest level since before the financial crisis.

 

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Sun, 06/01/2014 - 09:57 | 4814076 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Euro daily has shown an odd trend down

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/euro-daily-clear-trend-bull-channel-sup...

 

Gap downs, but little price movement during trading hours - like a step function - and where there's a step function, there's government/central bank interference.

 

Euro should be much lower than it is.

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 04:38 | 4813888 DavidC
DavidC's picture

"...take unconventional measures (to) counter the low inflation and risk of deflation."

Deflation is what's needed. Read your history. The US depression of 1920-21 was over in 18 months because of wage AND asset deflation allowing companies to rebuild. Jim Grant did a superb presentation recently on this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSPlT8o5ZKM

Inflation ONLY benefits those who owe money, nobody else.

DavidC

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 07:44 | 4813967 Marc To Market
Marc To Market's picture

David C and what happens when it is the vast majority that own money ? 

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 07:54 | 4813980 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Presumably you meant "owe" rather than "own". In which case, the answer is that scale matters – a lot. In other words, those who own billions (or trillions) of debt obviously benefit far more greatly from inflation than individuals who, with rare exceptions, owe relatively tiny amounts.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 16:28 | 4812947 Da chief
Da chief's picture

Absolutely retarded analysis.

 

Everything "retail" as this Marc guy is as well.

 

www.forexkong.com - the "only" voice in currency markets.

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 07:46 | 4813969 Marc To Market
Marc To Market's picture

Da Chief, this "absolutely retarded analysis" you say tends to agree with your forexkong.com, which you say is the "only" voice in currency markets, on the risks of a euro bounce, which is one of the main points in this analysis.  

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 13:32 | 4813950 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Chief....signed up...so far....1 for 3....his GBP/AUD call was dead wrong (watched it torch a demo though)....but no one can be right all the time.....his GBP/JPY out-call was spot on however....good exit.

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 16:24 | 4812935 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Good post Marc....thanks for the insights

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 07:50 | 4813975 Marc To Market
Marc To Market's picture

Thanks BeetleBailey....Pity the Sad Sacks.  

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 13:33 | 4814537 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Traded FX for 7 years now Marc. Professionally now. I manage several blocks of clients. Trade with the Aussies (no FIFO/LIFO there mate...and hedging allowed)....

Great traders LISTEN....as well as everything else. Good ideas come from everywhere.....never smart to burn a bridge....

Kong is but one source. There are others....consistent...dedicated....few are...

Entries and exits....in the end....in FX...what it all boils down to

Cheers!

 

BB

Sat, 05/31/2014 - 14:08 | 4812708 falak pema
falak pema's picture

What gets me is all this fuss made by the Brits around Juncker.

Why does Cameron junk the money launderer of Luxembourg; is he scared that Luxembourg will pull the plug on City? 

Its all Greek to  me.

But Juncker's group did win the run up election; so democracy implies he head the Commission or the next time round everybody will go fishing and the Commission will sink into oblivion. 

Sun, 06/01/2014 - 07:49 | 4813974 Marc To Market
Marc To Market's picture

falak pema, Juncker's group has yet to establish that it can form a majority in the European Parliament.  Getting the most votes is simply not sufficient to claim a majority.  It is also not just the Brits, but several other countries have problems with Juncker.  On issue is that the stronger the EU Parliament becomes it challanges the nation-state and checks the Council of Ministers.   It is about politics and ideology.  

Thu, 06/05/2014 - 06:14 | 4825991 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

well put. meanwhile, it gives Cameron welcome credentials of "fighting the system" "on behalf of reform"

and his timing gets on the nerves of both socialist and conservative continentals, something a good ol' Englishman can't resist...

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