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The Golden End Game – A Thought Experiment - Part Two
The Golden End Game – A Thought Experiment
Part Two of Two
By
Cognitive Dissonance
With limericks by The Limerick King
This is part two of a two part exploration (part one can be found here) into what the world might look like after a total or partial collapse of the currency/economic system from the perspective of holding Gold. As the title explains this is a thought experiment, not a dissertation filled with footnotes and references. Consider it one man’s flight of fancy, so take what you need and leave the rest. Anyone who claims they actually know what will happen is definitely a fool greater than me.
As markets are starting to sink
The end could be here in a wink
So should I prepare?
Should I even care?
My PMs will save me!!! (I think......)
(The Limerick King)
As a reminder of something emphasized in Part One, I am discussing a worst case scenario here. So please keep this in mind when your brain synapses start firing and you feel compelled to stop reading and fire off a nasty comment. There are thousands of lesser scenarios that could play out here as opposed to only hundreds of worse case scenarios. What you find below are just my thoughts on the matter, not fact or even hard opinion.
In addition, this essay isn’t directed towards the small PM ‘investor’ who owns ‘small’ amounts of Gold and Silver, for example under 20 ounces of Gold and several hundred ounces of Silver. Nor is it directed towards the whales, those who can purchase and safely store (preferably offshore) several hundred or even thousands of ounces of Gold. They have similar problems as everyone else, but much more flexibility. Rather this essay is directed towards those solidly middle class people who are converting their ‘wealth’ into Gold and Silver, even going so far as to cash out their qualified retirement accounts (IRA’s, 401(k)’s and qualified annuities) or mortgage their property in order to increase their Precious Metal stash.
I see and hear a great deal of cognitive dissonance among those who promote Gold as the way to salvation, all while ignoring or dismissing the idea of governmental confiscation of said Golden chariots. It’s not like doing so would be totally unprecedented in the US (or on other plantations for that matter) since President Franklin Roosevelt’s April 5, 1933 Executive Order 6102 did precisely that, promptly followed by a revaluation of said confiscated Gold to push the anal probe that much further up the rear.
What everyone seems to forget is that the United States is not the only plantation bleeding from every orifice while simultaneously ripping open new ones. This is a global party we’re throwing here and everyone who is anyone seems to have accepted the invitation, something many are beginning to regret as they desperately click the ‘un-send’ button. Actually this isn’t true, since we already know that the blue blood families play all sides against each other, then turn things around and transform former arch enemies in lifelong best girlfriends, the only way this global Ponzi could have progressed to this point in the collapse countdown.
I guess my point is simple. Today’s (global) disaster isn’t Argentina from 1989-1990 and again in 1999-2002. Nor is it Zimbabwe from 2004-2009 or even the Weimar Republic from 1920-1923. While the rest of the world was also (more or less) suffering during those turbulent times, Argentina, Zimbabwe and the Weimar were islands of disaster in a world of relative stability.
The Kleptocrat game is not chance
It resembles a well-rehearsed dance
With lifts, dips and spins
Until treachery wins
And the middle-class shits in their pants
(The Limerick King)
Remember that almost by definition disaster recovery requires relative normalcy somewhere nearby as the staging area from where you send in the life lines and supplies, as well as a place to evacuate the wounded. So when Norman, Oklahoma suffers a devastating tornado, help comes rushing in from 10-500 miles away. But what happens if the entire country is simultaneously ravaged by natural (Ponzi) disaster? Where does the help come from then? Overseas? But they are running the same Ponzi as we are here. So if we go down, they go down just as hard if not harder and vice versa.
One of the staples of the Armageddon genre of disaster porn is the notion that, in a national/global disaster, there is no safe harbor from which to coordinate and launch the rescue ships. Thus everyone goes into survival mode and if you aren’t helping yourself then no one is. Social rules of order and decorum are quickly abandoned for survival of the fittest and suddenly it is game on Mad Max style. Ironically if you remember the original Mad Max movie, it begins shortly after a terrible global disaster. Max was one of several cops working with the ‘authorities’ in an effort to maintain some type of order in the rapidly decaying remains of society. It was all downhill from there.
In response to those who would disagree with my line of reasoning by saying, “CD, you can’t compare a global natural disaster, where there is infrastructure damage, to an economic collapse, where at least initially all infrastructure remains in place and functioning” all I can say is that I disagree. The active ingredient in my analogy isn’t the level or type of global devastation as much as the equality or uniformity of it.
External rescue requires a more or less untouched area that contains a surplus of resources, financial or otherwise, and the means to organize and deploy them into the underserved disaster area. Because the Ponzi disease is globally and uniformly distributed around the developed world, in the event of a total or partial collapse, essentially there are no substantial surplus resources that can be gathered and transported from one area to the next. Everyone is in the same degraded condition. Well……actually there are ‘excess surplus assets’ available after a global economic collapse. Those assets are called the people’s Gold. But we’ll get to that in a moment.
So any rescue or recovery can only come from in-place assets and organized systems such as the existing military and governmental bureaucracy. Thus other than some shifting of leadership positions to create scapegoats and dispel slave anger, not much will change unless an armed and organized revolt is mounted. While that might eventually come about, it will not initially, thus allowing the military to disperse and dissolve any pockets of semi-organized resistance or even to prevent states from seceding so that they may create their own economic systems and/or preserve local and regional natural resources.
So who could have guessed Marx was right?
That the Bourgeoisie class is a blight?
All our wealth they will take
While they let us eat cake
We are slaves who must stand-up and fight!
(The Limerick King)
There seems to be a never ending stream of comments left on Zero Hedge that are short and sweet. Let it all burn to the ground baby so that we can rebuild it from scratch. I honestly think these people have no idea what that really means because in today’s world of massive financial leverage and staggering amounts of derivative contracts, too big to fail banks using 40 or 50 to 1 leverage and the majority of the slave population living paycheck to paycheck etc., burning it all down just might be an act of compassion compared to what would happen if it all just fell apart.
Anyone who doesn’t think martial law would be immediately declared and our remaining civil rights forcibly removed in the event of a partial or total economic/currency collapse has been brewing and taste testing their own brand of Kool-Aid. When order begins to break down, the existing power base WILL attempt to restore order and they won’t be gentle while doing so. And for the most part the plantation slaves will welcome the intervention because they have not prepared for the chaos, having ignored all the warning signs because they relied upon their masters to protect them.
So once again let us circle back to the principal question. What will you do with all that Gold and how will you reintegrate it into any new currency system that is implemented? During the first few hours, days, even weeks after the partial or total collapse, on a local basis you will be able to use your Gold (and especially your Silver) in small increments to barter for the goods and services you need to continue to live.
But very quickly, most likely the same day of the collapse, the government will announce draconian banking, price, wage and possibly even barter controls. And they will begin to implement unilateral decisions about what is needed where and when. If you have something the ‘greater good’ needs or wants and if others know about your good fortune, it could very easily be taken from you.
On a more practical basis, because the established control system will want to quickly put in place some type of replacement currency system, our Gold and other precious metals may actually escape any attempt at a quick governmental grab and go. But within days, and at most a week or so, global decisions will be made (correction: they have already been made, they will be implemented after a week) and in my opinion the priority will be to establish confidence in any new currency system or reestablish confidence in the old.
While one can’t know exactly how it will go down, considering that Gold and other PMs will probably have gone through the roof by this point, it is highly likely that Gold, along with other PMs or a basket of commodities (and possibly other new or old foreign currencies) will be used to back any new or renewed currency. The IMF’s so called Special Drawing Rights (SDR), essentially a global currency, is a perfect example of a cobbled together currency that might gain traction.
When HFT algos have ceased
And those who had most have the least
Is gold the best bet?
For a system reset?
Or will Banksters create a new beast?
(The Limerick King)
Now here is where I strongly suggest that, for several reasons, ‘they’ will feel compelled to confiscate Gold from the population. And this works on a global as well as national scale folks. The principal psychological warfare technique they will us is to vilify and scapegoat those ugly Gold hoarders and evil speculators. And there is no doubt in my mind that they will claim with absolute confidence and with concocted evidence that these evil Precious Metal terrorists destroyed the old system.
‘Truth’ will be immaterial at this point and actually counterproductive for those trying to beat back the resurgent Ponzi Hydra. Frightened people are not deep thinkers and they most certainly are not very reasonable. The emotional pain of collapse must be relieved, so any handy pain killer will be willingly ingested. History is replete with examples of this and a frightened and extremely angry slave population will gratefully latch onto the offered Gold hating piñata rather than soul search and examine their own role in the present disaster.
Depending upon the believability of various figures bandied about, less than one percent of the US population owns Gold as an investment (even less own the physical) and less than 2% own Gold miner shares. At the peak of the last Gold rush in the late 70’s and early 80’s I believe 8% of the US population owned investment Gold. Even if the present Gold love affair reaches that level of participation before the End Game commences, this group will still be a small minority and it will be very easy to turn the general population against them/us.
In addition, those who hold their Gold in bank safety deposit boxes or private vaults, at bullion banks or any other private, public or governmental storage facility will find that it will not be there for long. I suspect that the entities that own or control the facilities will be ordered to close their doors and to turn over the Gold. So even if we own Gold in ‘real physical’ fund companies such as Sprott, we will soon find that it isn’t available for withdrawal after the fall. And please don’t talk to me about the rule of law. We saw how the rule of law was respected when the US ran over the GM bond holders. Let’s get real here folks, under these circumstances the law is what they say the law is.
As well, plantation (country) borders will essentially be meaningless because every modern country will be in the same predicament. So the smart play for the new political puppets will be to cooperate with every other plantation (even enemies) to reenergize the system as quickly as possible. The precious metal mining companies will probably be nationalized, even if that just means that all of the output from the mines will be directed to the vaults of the ‘host’ plantation. China is effectively doing this now. So the only Gold you can count on is the Gold coins and small bars buried in the sand at the bottom of your fish tank.
Aside from the uncontrolled corruption and unrestrained fiat creation, if the old system collapsed because the general population lost faith in the financial system (ultimately the real reason behind any fiat collapse because it is not the unrestrained fiat printing, but the loss of public faith and belief the printing engenders, that destroys a fiat) and Gold in its role as the ultimate safe haven was the lightening rod that inflamed and focused that loss of faith, it will be incumbent upon the ‘new’ leadership to defuse and deflect any pockets of resistance to the new or reformed currency. By making a show of confiscating Gold ‘for the good of the people’ many non Gold holding people will go along with the theft because it essentially helps pull their asses out of the fire.
In effect the reckless and imprudent will cheer on the confiscation because backing the theft of others increases the chance they will be rewarded, or at least not severely punished, for their bad behavior. Moral hazard works wonders for the general population as well as the too big to fail. Because the general population can (and will) be stampeded when the crisis gets ‘real’, this will allow the political puppets to set up tiered currency conversion systems and unfair Gold and other PM reintegration rules. The rich will get richer and the poor will……well, you know. We will hear a lot of crying by the rich and powerful about how they just can’t put their glorious talents to work unless they receive special ‘incentives’. I just can’t wait to hear the imaginative sob stories of the down and out crony capitalists.
The dollar says, "In God We Trust"
But the dollar's about to go bust
So who betrayed whom
That has led to our doom?
(Twas the one who embraced greed and lust)
(The Limerick King)
While black and barter markets will most definitely spring up as they did in the 1930’s and 70’s, they might be less effective than they were back then unless we use them strictly for locally produced items and services. And even then I can see many problems and pitfalls. The one hope I have here is that the underground market for drugs and stolen goods will not go away because of the collapse, particularly since the new Ponzi will once again want to use (inter)national drug money to feed the beast. This might help to create pathways for black market currency to flow back into the main system which in return sustains the PM reintegration. We shall see if I am correct.
I see Gold and PM dealers becoming highly regulated and required under heavy penalty of law to report any and all relatively large PM transactions, for example anything over two or three ounces of Gold, thus effectively cutting off Joe’s ability to feed his or her Gold back into the system and extract or convert the wealth they tried to transport from the old system to the new. It can be done, but only very slowly and at considerable time, money and labor expense. And most importantly, with no free floating Gold market to set realistic prices, we will once again be robbed in broad daylight. They don’t need to ‘take’ your Gold, just take its value through price controls.
I expect that one of the national and possibly worldwide changes that will be implemented after the collapse and rebuilding of the financial system might be mandatory electronic fund transfers for things such as paying taxes, utility bills, mortgage as well as insurance and/or rent payments, payments to any local, state or federal agency or contractor as well as any large purchases such as cars, homes, businesses or anything else above an arbitrarily drawn currency amount.
Once these rules and regulations are introduced into the system, most retailers will follow the lead and refuse most or all cash transactions, preferring to use lower cost and more efficient electronic transfers. Expect a higher price or penalty to use cash (which you received when you sold your PMs) to purchase just about anything. Remember that a vibrant black market can only exist if there is a way to launder the proceeds back into the main system or if there is a parallel alternative currency system that fits the needs of the local users. This explains the need for drug and organized crime money to blaze a trail into the official money system. I have faith the new Ponzi will open that door for their own purposes.
Throughout history the key to forcing the public to accept new monetary and currency systems is to demand that all payments to the false sovereign master be made in the new script and/or using the new method of payment. This has the effect of forcing people to adopt the new system, thus validating it. Wide spread use by the general population for all their financial business usually quickly follows. The oldest tricks are still the best tricks from the (global) Ponzi point of view.
This will have a two pronged effect on the system, washing out any chance of laundering larger quantities of our Gold by using it for large purchases and more effectively binding the indentured servant and wage slave to the new currency system. If the slave gets too mouthy and begins to complain, just cause a few problems with his or her electronic payment system and watch them quickly buckle. After all, we all have to eat now don’t we? Never let a crisis go to waste, especially when you are creating it in the first place.
So how will the End Game play out?
The answer is surely in doubt
When all fiat dies
Will sound money rise
Or will all assets suffer a rout?
(The Limerick King)
This is one of the reasons I feel Silver will be more usable as an alternative unit of currency if this global collapse does transpire. Hopefully Silver is incorporated into any new national/global currency as part of its backing, for this will lend tremendous credibility to using Silver in alternative barter/currency systems. Silver throughout the ages has always been used as money and not necessarily as a store of substantial wealth.
This is why you might consider purchasing 1964 and earlier Silver U.S. coins, junk or not. It is important that we incorporate flexibility and diversification into our wealth transfer vehicles as this is the key to successfully crossing over. To assume, hope really, that our one and only method, that of Gold, will be successful is wishful thinking at best and foolhardy at worst. For the masters, Gold is a well known and understood escape mechanism and it will not be allowed to pass totally untouched. We must be different from the masses in order to survive while still being transparent enough that we don’t draw unwanted attention.
And that, in my opinion, is the more realistic path to dry land in this global disaster scenario. The worst thing that you and I can do when preparing for tough times is to develop a severe case of tunnel vision and focus only on our Golden boat as the exit strategy. The bottom line is that we must try to own the same assets that will be owned and transferred by the financial elite and their henchmen and puppets.
While one of those assets will most definitely be Gold, it will not be their only asset or their most valuable. While some of these elite alternative asset classes are out of our reach because of our much smaller stash, and there is little we can do to combat the planned inequalities that will be built into any new system, that doesn’t mean we are helpless or that it is hopeless.
On the contrary, just as the elite see the coming chaos as the perfect time to rape, rob and steal, I see it as ushering in a generational opportunity to build family and community ties like never before. And maybe, just maybe, begin to do some of the hard work we need to do within. Just because we are being buffeted by the fierce rain and wind squalls that precede the hurricane doesn’t mean we can’t use this to our advantage.
However, if we see everything through fearful eyes and with great trepidation we are going to drop the ball and hurt ourselves worse than if we had done nothing. Regardless of what the bad guys did or will do, if we aren’t right within we will wind up harming ourselves much worse than they ever could.
And so this all leads directly to my final thoughts, including one I have shared many times before and which can never be repeated too often. Over the years I have found that regardless of my heartfelt desire for a positive outcome or the gentle and considerate methods used, if my intent and motives are not honest or if I’m not honest with myself or others regarding them, rarely is the outcome to my satisfaction.
Bottom line, this isn’t about the bad guys or their enablers, their greed and lawlessness or even what is right or just. This is about me and my motives and how square I am with myself and others. Just because others lie, cheat and steal doesn’t mean I must follow suit in the name of staying alive or even to justify keeping my head above water. What this isn’t about is sugar plums and fairy tales or holding hands and singing Kumbaya. This is about developing our own Karma and being true to ourselves.
To those who seek power and greed
It will soon be your hour of need
What good is your gold?
When you’re hungry and cold
And the price for some flour is seed
(The Limerick King)
So it is with great concern that I have noticed a disturbing trend among the articles and comments posted of late. I have been a ZH contributor for two years now and I watched the discussions about Gold begin as one of several ways to protect our assets. This conversation began way back when Gold was still largely out of favor even here on Zero Hedge. And I have slowly seen it morph into a widely accepted concept of wealth protection as more and more began to see without a doubt that we are on a collision course with history. There is nothing wrong with this and I have no real problem with it.
But lately sentiment has changed from preserving wealth to growing wealth. And now I am beginning to detect the next stage of the emotional escalation. I am hearing greed and wanton self interest along with the self satisfied chuckle of the prospect of both making a killing and of being proven right when everyone else told us we were wrong. I am hearing the sound of avarice and lust, of rationalization and justification, of outsized egos and very little perspective.
Tunnel vision can take many forms and can strike the best and the worst with the same crushing blow. I have no intention of being self righteous or of calling the kettle black when this pot can be even blacker. That is not the purpose or intent of this essay because there is no denying that I have also felt the seductive tug of jackpot thinking. But when our motive for holding Gold and Silver is distorted and warped by greed and self interest, so is our thinking and perspective.
Which means that if there comes a time when the best move forward is to sell most of the Gold and move on to another asset class, one more likely to survive the transition intact, will we be able to see this as obvious and a no brainer? Or by this time will we so blinded by the Golden glow that we become nothing more than obsessed slaves kneeling in prayer to the almighty God of Gold, seeing nothing but our beloved promised land?
I hope not! From my point of view our most valuable asset is, and will continue to be, an open and flexible mind.
When all markets finally go bust
From our greed induced hubris and lust
To whom do we turn?
What skills should we learn?
It's all just a matter of trust
(The Limerick King)
11-21-2011
Cognitive Dissonance
Special thanks to The Limerick King for his wonderfully apropos limericks. It is an insult to describe the process of condensing complex subjects into 5 lines of prose as ‘writing’. The term ‘stupid good talent’ just begins to scratch the surface of what The Limerick King has to offer. Thank you TLK.
I also wish to thank Dagny Taggart for the ongoing and wonderfully diverse conversation that always leads to further inspiration. Thank you Dagny.
PS: For those who just can’t get enough of The Limerick King, below please find some more of his work that I just couldn’t fit in. Momma always told me never waste a single morsel of The Limerick King.
On the day when the fan meets the shit
And the Kleptos have taken a hit
Will gold save the day?
As all wealth fades away?
I suspect that those bastards won't quit
Do Oligarchs ever retire?
Do they ever just lose their desire?
Does their job ever suck?
Do they ever feel stuck?
Is there ever a Klepto for hire?
I'm glad that I followed my gut
My gold makes me feel like King Tut
But what will I do
Should a riot ensue?
Will a Kilo bar fit up my butt???
- advertisements -
Very good, but you are assuming that they will have the MEANS to exert control.
That can prove extremely difficult among a large, dispersed, armed population.
The problem "they" have is that once CONfidence is lost, and willing participation of enough sheeple stops, their "control" is lost as well. They are about to find out that it is a very large, very pissed-off cat they have let out, and not only will it absolutely will not go back into the bag, it's going to rip off a few pounds of flesh and bugger you before it stops. What will emerge from all this will be of benefit to all, not just the few who have fooled themselves into thinking they have control.
Let the welfare checks stop flowing and real poverty rear its head along with hunger. The battle in the streets for food and resources will pare down and exhaust the bulk of the population in many places. Re-asserting an authoritarian control will be pretty easy by then. Wiping out pockets of resistance is just a detail. People, especially parents, take whatever offer of safety they can.
Meanwhile, in Fresno, CA, thousands of street lights are out because of copper theft. As these get re-wired, the city is packing the bases and covers with concrete to slow them down. The police do nothing. The rule of law is crumbling in a thousand places. How long til those places merge into a whole?
That's what I am talking about. Can you see these people lined up waiting patiently for their weekly bag of rice and beans from the FEMA truck? I foresee 100's of "Rodney King" riots going on simultaneously through out the Country. Lots of burning and looting in metro areas, and panic in the suburbs. FEMA detention camps are being staffed, it's only a matter of when, not if.
New Orleans after Katrina is a real world case study. In New Orleans after Katrina the police melted away to take care of their own families. Took outside resources to re-establish order. Outside resources who knew their own families back home were safe. If there is a general melt-down everywhere, there will not nearly be enough cavalry to ride to the rescue everywhere. Local police staffing levels can only deal with a surprisingly low level of problems at one time as it is. In a general collapse, more likely is hungry armed gangs and no one answering 911 calls. Brass-jacketed lead will be the true PM. If push comes to shove, enough people will defend their families / aggressively seek resources for their families to cause real mayhem that will overwhelm whatever local police or National Guard resources that might be available. Not to mention all the people who suddenly don't get their meds, prisoners out of jails with a chip on the shoulder about getting even with "The Man", and anti-social evil types in general who will take advantage of an overwhelmed / disappearing police force.
In a local disaster like a Florida hurricane, authorities routinely tell everyone you are on your own for the first 72 hours. A national collapse means there will be no outside resources to come in after 72 hours.
Most people are completely unprepared for any social upheaval. Just blindly assume that Just in Time Logistics comes from God. There is always gas at the gas station, ATMs always work, and magic delivers food to the grocery store. However, New Orleans the four days after Katrina is a model for what could happen. Was there personally as part of the cavalry and know it could happen again.
Here is what some of the New Orleans police were busy doing, looting Walmart:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHcajIRcBvA
I was just logging in to make your point! :-)
Cost/Benefit analysis: There would be a cost associated with any form of confiscation and if it's more than the gold they would hope to confiscate they won't bother.
Speaking as a US citizen, unable to speak for the EU countries:
Clearing out deposit boxes is cheap and easy. For the rest, factor in what TPTB would have to pay in soldiering, firepower and administration to go door to door with their metal detectors or enforce any number of creative controls administratively. Loss of personnel by way of an angry, armed citizenry is factored into the equation. So is noncompliance. So is the cost of paying the public servants. Add it all up and it's obvious confiscation would be a whopping waste of energy.
TPTB have run their fancy game-theory computer models. Rest assured they are MILES ahead of all of us. They know better than to attempt to enforce ANYTHING on a one to one authoritative basis. They KNOW heavy handed tactics will backfire. They're outnumbered.
Also, the imagined "enforcers" whom preppers are so ready to cast as the so-called "enemy" - DHS, military, FBI, police, IRS, etc., are Americans. They are our families and neighbors. They love their country, it's probably among the main reasons they signed up. If the Powers That Be are delusional enough to think they can shove something OVERTLY odious up the US's collective butt using America's own public servants, they may someday find themselves alone in a well-appointed bunker somewhere, barking orders into a phone to nobody in particular, losing their minds over the realization no one is doing their bidding. Passive resistance. (Bitchez.)
TPTB know they get the best bang-for-the-buck from their mass psychological ops. Their only hope is to convince us to voluntarily cooperate with the new paradigm. They cannot afford to fail at this. The way to do it is to make it appealing. And you know what, IF they can make it appealing, AND they can make it work, who are we to fight it? The whole point of the "system" is to facilitate trade. Who cares what they call the unit of trade? OUR task is to learn the new game, maximize our trading power and avoid the parasites and predators. Fair enough, so game on. I like games.
Some good points there, Pinky. I might add that the best way to put the spotlight on gold and silver is to outlaw it! Just leaving us poor souls alone would serve them better. (But when have they done the smart thing?) Immediately upon requiring PMs to be turned in (for a pittance in fiat) the whole world will know to hang on to it for dear life -- literally.
And while I'm on the subject, even the last great forced repatriation of gold (it was not a confiscation) the citizen was allowed to keep a bit. And coin dealers/collectors were off the hook with some guidelines for said collections or ordinary business in coin dealing. I come at this from a coin dealer perspective. I have some really nice "collections" of pre-1965 silver and more modern silver U. S. Mint issues. These will be allowed the ordinary citizen. If you have a bag of junk silver coins, on the other hand, you'd be wise to get some cheap coin folders and stick 'em in there. Do some eBay shopping for coin collecting stuff, used is cheaper still.
I'm thinking we will see an end to fiat and become a cashless society (mostly there already) where digital money will be the only way you can buy and sell, just like your credit card, and may even have overdraft protection. Social security and snap cards are solidly and widely used. A very secure underground system would be needed for PM's and would probably only be worth their historical trade value, but what other choices are there?
I think they have been working towards the cashless system for a very long time and guess who runs the system? The TBTF. NWO bitchez.
I would say it's the ONLY bang for the buck.
Too late IMO, the die is cast.
Very likely. This time though, the new rules will be written by the collective desires of the entire world. The globalists thought they knew what they were doing, but this one bit their ass clean off.
I do too. This one will be fun to watch play out, like spotting a grandmaster who made a fatal error that will seal his fate in 20 moves, but he hasn't figured it out yet.
You make valid points LowProfile. But an armed population might just be the reason given for martial law and a crackdown on dissidents and other so-called malcontents.
And just because they lose control doesn't mean they won't try to regain it with all the force they can muster. I suspect many people would applaud the use of force if it follows the expert use of propaganda to vilify those dirty rotten Precious Metal hoarders and speculators.
Ultimately I know only one thing for sure. This will not play out the way I expect it will.
Martial law might work in the major cities, but how are you going to enforce it outside of those?
All government really is local.
Low, they don't have to confiscate your gold but can, instead, make it illegal to use it as a means of value. And they don't have to catch you, just compensate (handsomely) the guy you deal with to turn you in..... And he can keep the gold! Just saying....
I'm the son of parents who have lived through three such confiscations, and I have been the victim of two others myself. For me, I've had two pieces of land stolen for 'public domain.' My parents lost a piece of land that way and had their gold confiscated the first time around. They also had a private plane stolen by the Government during the war. So I'm fully prepared (and assuming) for the next Government event up the collective family ass.
The problem is they will need to make it illegal the whole world over, and Gold is fungible, compact & portable.
Good luck with that, I say.
Ever since children were made to hide under their desks in grade school the use of FEAR has been the main tool of the Fascist/Nazi Overlords.
Witness the Offical Mafia's modi operandi ... these obvious murderers, these treasonous criminals of 9/11/01.
Gold and Silver have been money since the dawn of human civilization and has survived the crash of every empire in recorded history... will it survive this modern crash? The world is a much bigger place than most ameriKlans will ever understand. Don't let fear cloud out sound judgement and historical fact.
The severity of the raids launched on gold and silver has been extreme but there are other factors at play that contribute to the weakness for the sector. Along with the tax loss selling this week, there is a December stock options expiry that has contributed to the short-a-thon for the mining stocks. For example, note how SLW was held below the round number of $30 late this week... The bottom line is that even though many of the miners have reported breakout years in terms of production, cash flow, and earnings, these stocks as a group have been hammered.
Many people pin the 'high risk' warning on this sector. There is a loud assortment of clueless analysts that advise against owning the mining stocks. But it is odd that these stocks are among the hardest hit in the financial crisis during the last few weeks. Some people attribute this to the fact that the miners were big winners in the last year or two and therefore they are first stocks to go when investors need to raise cash. We have seen three distinct, severe selloffs in this sector during 2011.
How many times can the same investors sellout their mining stocks? Can you say Illegal Naked Shorts?
Lets also keep in mind that mining stocks amount to a tiny fraction of the overall market. Collectively they would not generate a great amount of cash in a liquidity crisis. And the same goes for gold. Sure there has been extensive leasing and then selling of gold bullion and that has contributed to the downdraft in the spot market. But the total dollar value of that gold is a fraction of the amount of money being pumped into the system on a daily basis. Do rational people really think that selling has anything whatsoever to do with raising cash? Gimme a break..
The old fashioned explanation seems far more likely. This is a raid that has been timed and structured to ensure that in-the-money option holders are screwed, and to discourage participants from taking delivery. The selloff in the mining stocks is colateral damage and opportunistic shorting to follow up on the usual gang rape of the metals.
Yes, there are other factors at work. Margin call selling is part of the story for sure after a meltdown event in just a few days of trading. But is anything different about this takedown from the others. And the bozos that are filling the airwaves with the bearish chatter have played the same card in 2008 for the most part. They were spectacularly wrong then, and will be wrong again.
Just phone up your local bullion dealer and see how much stock they have in their stores, and at what price. Try a few shops that you have dealt with before and learn the premium on silver bullion is running about $4 an ounce. There is very little bullion coming back to market from retail sellers, and this is also confirmed by the premiums bullion shops are willing to pay, above spot to buy back silver bullion. If there was indeed a selloff of bullion, as some analysts have suggested, you would not find that bullion shops are willing to pay a premium to get it.
If the spot price remains under pressure next week, and physical bullion sales remain brisk, that should stand up as yet another piece of evidence that investors are fleeing the corrupt COMEX and rolling their money to hold real bullion. Sure the lack of a paper market is going to hurt in the short term, but the drawdown of physical bullion inventory will trigger a strong rebound in the price of the metals shortly thereafter. And having fewer players on board willing to be screwed time and again by the COMEX crooks will just make it that much harder for them to raid the market next month.
The Asians have backed up their trucks and are paying a premium of up to $1900+/oz to secure real metal. The ameriKlan empire is but a flash in the pan of world history.
Fear not!
www.lemetropolecafe.com
In the spirit of the discussion of making a point with limericks, here are a couple:
They will certainly vilify gold ownership to prepare the populace for their confiscation.
When talking points dictate the meme
And they will try to reintroduce 'sound currency' to convince you to exchange your gold for it:And the media riffs on the theme
Gold investors beware
You're all hoarders, you hear?
And your friends will not be who they seem
When the government asks for your trust
And says trade us your gold, for you must
Their 'sound money' is hollow
Will it be sound tomorrow?
No, their fiat will always go bust
Very nice. Thank you for adding to the conversation. Since working with The Limerick King I have developed a greater appreciation for prose, poetry and limericks. Truly amazing form.
Hello CD.
I always enjoy your writing. You’re long winded. …but so am I. Anyhow, I’ve played this same game with readers many times, and it never worked very well.
So many times, whenever I try to get Gold investors to at least “consider” opening their eyes to other perspectives… all I get is hate mail. (and it’s why this will get Junked by most of its readers here at ZH. The junkers love their anonymity and safety from behind the keboard!)
I feel that the irony of gold is that it destroys impartiality. Once you buy it, you buy its faith. It seems like you have to believe in it. …and once you do, then it seems to break down the ability to see anything else. You tend to read others who also own it, and you all get into a re-affirming /vicious cycle / perpetual motion machine. So IMO, gold bugs become blind to the fact that the hand they hold is the hand that holds them down. The foresight they had, to purchase it, winds up blinding them!
I see it as a hedge, nothing more. 1 additional level of diversified insurance.
So as I play this same game out, I just don’t see what “they” see.
Here’s how I see it.
I see a somewhat “orderly” collapse. No bombs and bullets. In much the same way TPTB have been able to perpetually kick-the-can down the road, I see the same global “restructure-the-can down the road.”
The beauty of this virus is that everyone has it. …and to quote Syndrome from the Pixar movie The Incredibles: “And when I'm old and I've had my fun, I'll sell my inventions so that *everyone* can have powers. *Everyone* can be super! And when everyone's super... no one will be.”
In that same logic… If everyone’s screwed…. then no one is!
So I don’t see a conversion desk, where you hand your gold over for the new regime’s currency. I don’t see a barter system, where you hand slivers of gold for hot dogs.
In fact, I don’t see the new system being very happy with you and your gold, since you didn’t have faith in the last system.
To me, the ultimate insurance is productive land, and a massive investment in your network/community.
As a worst case scenario, when the creditors come demanding whatever, in exchange for a collapsing/hyper inflating debt that is owed, the needs of the creditors will be exposed. China will see a massive import tax on food, Japan on supplies, etc…
To make the right bet is luck. …but to once again quote Edna from the Incredibles: “luck favors the prepared!”
So IMO gold is a hedge, nothing more, and not worth more than said land/community.
All the best,
Rich H / Miss America
@Rich H / Miss America
Whether you hold gold or property or not, everyone will be screwed to some extent or another when the system collapses. However, if the choice is at present between holding gold or productive land, I choose to hold gold. History as proven for one, when a fiat currency fails or a monetary system collapses, gold can be used to buy "productive land" and much more for pennies on the dollar so to speak. Yes, if you can, acquire both gold and productive land now, but never forget that gold is the less risky of the two. Gold can for one easily be transported from a location that has become outright dangerous to one where it is relatively safer... where productive land can be acquired with the gold in hand. Furthermore, history has proven that any land, productive or not, can easily be taxed or confiscated, while the same cannot be said of gold that can easily be hidden (providing that you're smart enough not to keep it in a third party storage system or jump to comply when they announce all gold should be handed in for fiat money).
For interest sake: Have you ever heard of John Law? If not, be sure to read up on him here: http://mshistory.k12.ms.us/articles/70/john-law-and-the-mississippi-bubble-1718-1720 Also for interest sake, have you ever heard of "Assignats"? If not, be sure read up on it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assignat
You are mistaken if you believe people will have a great deal of faith left in a fiat or debt-based monetary system after the coming collapse. Once again, as history has proven, advocates of such a system will be the ones that will be on the receiving end of the anger it unleashes. Imagine, you've just lost everything (productive land included) due to this global fiat Ponzi scheme, and now someone comes along, rejecting honesty money, once again trying to convince you that fiat money is God's gift to earth. Again, as history has proven, when people lose all or most of their wealth as a result of such a fiat Ponzi scheme, it normally takes about 50 years plus and a lot of deception to get them to acccept any form of fiat money again.
Yes, there will be a barter system and gold might initially not be accepted, although it's highly unlikely, as history has proven. However, just to be on the safe side, this is why most people who owns gold are also prepared in terms of food storage, water storage, etc. Remember: Gold is a small, but vital component of a much bigger salvation outfit so to speak.
"I feel that the irony of gold is that it destroys impartiality. Once you buy it, you buy its faith. It seems like you have to believe in it. …and once you do, then it seems to break down the ability to see anything else"
I think you have gold confused with fiat money. Unlike fiat money, gold has intrinsic value whether you believe it or not... and no, gold doesn't destroy impartiality, idiots who whine about gold and embrace fiat money like its God's gift to earth do!
Hi Miss America, here are my thoughts:
I see one problem with your insurance: that if you pay property taxes, then you don't own it. The government does.
As long as they are a 'benevolent' landlord, then you're OK. But how well have farming tenants done in history, when rentiers were not so kind?
To me, land makes one a rooted target for government taxation, which can become rapacious to the point of stealing everything you own. To me, land that is owned by the government rather than by you, is a big sign to them that here is someone who will not easily be dislodged...so tax (or invade, or confiscate) freely.
I agree with you, that what we are facing is a long, drawn-out, 'orderly' collapse, rather than a nice, quick, nuclear type collapse.
I also agree with you, that as soon as you place your wealth somewhere, you are putting faith into that area. I see no way of escaping this, other than having no wealth in any form at all.
PS: I didn't vote you 'Up' or 'Down', but I have to say I would much rather 50 Agrees than 50 Me-Too posts, or 50 Disagrees than 50 forms of abuse of widely varying talent levels.
"Stay low and keep moving" The Grey Man.
well said top to bottom. I don't know where I stand where the rubber meets the road, but I speculate that I would sooner lay my life on the line to protect my land before I protected gold. If "they" are taking the land, then "they" are probably taking the gold too.
If it's Mad Max, nomad society, the gold travels. ...but I JUST CAN"T SEE US DEVOLVING to that!?!?!? (I'm not saying that you are saying Mad Max, but rather it is the backbone of why I don't see gold being as valuable.)
As for taxing the land... In a societal collapse, barter systems and community will need food as priority #1. A well armed army fights for 3 days. A well fed army fights for years.
I would suspect a tax increase would be passed along through the barter/comunity/new system???
Your thoughts?
Whether it is a failure of imagination, or just a lack of knowledge about the world outside ones' fenceposts\tv screen, the reference to a MadMax scenario as the only probable total collapse outcome is an embarrassingly parochial position...I am not saying that to be negative, but to try to bring some perspective to the conversation....
For millenium, the response of plain folks to societal crisis has been to keep mobile, ready for disaster, and in close contact with allies, family or otherwise. In a few "backwards" parts of the world, this is still a possible option....although it is my observation on the ground that this is very rapidly being 'taken out' by the collective forces of a ZATO, international finance, satanist globalist police force let loose with the acquiescence of all of you in the West who will ultimately foot the bill for the consequences of letting your natural allies get crushed under the bus!
There is a whole WORLD outside of your imagination, inmates of the EUROMERIKAN prison zone! Get caught up, first to the false rhetoric of who your real enemies are{hint: not other peoples of the Book!!!} and second, to your own traditions and the failsafe ways of your forbears!
Never defend a fixed perimeter. There is a good reason all imperialists, east or west, get their asses kicked in "backward" places like GHANISTAN, where we don't use flush toilets and toiletries like good decent modern folk.
Two fresh mounts, gun, gold, & always leave a back door to retreat through, so as to be ready and able to return and fight another day...at the time and on the ground of your own choosing!
"Your thoughts?"
Well, since you asked...I agree about the well-fed army, but then, that's gov's interest, right? And how better to feed "their" armies than through "their" land, farmed by their own loyal serfs, err, citizens. To me, your point about the army underscores more than ever why gov would be keeping a close eye on "its" farmland, and making sure those landholders are productive in service to the state.
I admit I've only seen the Mad Max trilogy once. Loved the first one, liked the second, fell asleep in the third...what haunts me more is the historic relationship of gentry to peasants. That's not Mad Max per se, just history. There have been many times when landholders have been reduced to flight, and I think if we are wise we can read the portents and prepare. It's easy to disbelieve a film that we know is fantasy, but not so easy to dismiss a cycle that's been repeated for thousands of years.
I don't think you're accusing me of being "Mad Max" and I wouldn't really care if you were...but I do note that you say you can't see us devolving to that, without explaining, Why Not. I can give you some Why So's if you like, but you probably already know them.
My point: throughout distant and recent history, the peasants of many countries have had to resort to flight when their government's interest became the opposite of theirs. There were always warning signs: Criminal Government. Police or Terrorist State. Few Civil Rights or Liberties. Scapegoat 'enemies of the state'. Propaganda and concentrated wealth/power. An impoverished sovereign, insecure leadership, hostile international politics. Do any of those describe our society now? I cannot think of many other outcomes for our scenario, and politics the past few years have served to confirm my opinion on this. I do think it is foolish to assume (unless there are good reasons) that what has happened so many times elsewhere, cannot happen here in just the same way. I think it is almost inevitable that when the interests of the government and its citizens become opposed, the result is fleeing peasants.
Perhaps I am oversimplifying, or ignoring possibilities. I certainly welcome other views and I ponder those. But I've pondered "Muddle Through" many times and can find NO way that can possibly work...meanwhile, I think any Western World peasant, who has not pondered at least the possibility of flight, is not being realistic.
Barter systems, yes, will need food. So will community; and both of these gov has every interest in controlling. I agree with others on this thread who say the gov will not actively confiscate gold (although I believe they will try to confiscate it through taxation, and through legal "bans"). But in whose interests will the farm production be? Yours? or Gov's? Are you and the government on the same side, and if not, how will you ensure that production benefits you and not the 'enemy'? I think that those of us who dare to be food producers, and who do so OPENLY, on property that the government knows about, had better take good care that their production is not confiscated. They had better take care that they obey well. I do not know how their production will successfully be hidden, but they will have to find ways - because gov will make every effort to make itself the destination of, and then redistributor of, all the food, water, and energy that it can.
Wikipedia:
Prodnalog (Prodovolstvenniy nalog; literally "production tax") is the Russian word for a tax on food production, paid in kind in Soviet Russia, and sometimes known as "the Tax in Kind". Prodnalog, which replaced prodrazvyorstka, was introduced by a Decree of the All-Russian Central Executive Committee on March 21, 1921 and was abolished in 1924.
The transition to prodnalog was the first act of the New Economic Policy and a necessary incentive for raising the Soviet agriculture. The peasants knew in advance how much produce they would have to surrender to the state. The rate of prodnalog was much smaller than that of prodrazvyorstka. For comparison, in 1920-1921 the peasants surrendered to the state 367 million poods (6,010,000 metric tons) of cereals through prodrazvyorstka, as opposed to 240 million poods (3,930,000 metric tons) in 1921-1922 through prodnalog.
first off, that you are able to go against the grain here, and keep contributiing is a commendable thing...I admire your willingess to defend your position. That said, there are reasons for you getting junked that go beyond your understanding, and the scenario this article brings up is part and parcel of the same blind spot.
I can speak only for myself. I critized your previous remarks re Roubini and anti gold artists for a reason that is still not grasped here: by CD, yourself, or the punters. I pointed out that there are countries where gold is, and always has been a currency in the sense that ownership extends to ALL classes of society. From the poorest goat herder to the urban Bourgeosie, the requirements of getting married and having any kind of existence have from times immemorial involved scraping enough together to buy some gold.
It is the greatest of ironies that these 'third world' countries, so greatly disparaged and spit upon in all the 'gold bug' forums, including this one, will be the ones which, due to their social and familial cohesion(backwardness in the lexicon of the modern stylists of the urban west) that will best survive the variables that CD's artilcle describes.
For several years now I have tried to encourage people with survival instincts intact to at least consider the wisdom of getting out of Dodge with assets and dignity intact. Invariably such suggestion has received on these site a vituperative response similar to that which you get for suggesting gold is not an answer.
Gold is an answer - as is land: but only when one is well placed in a society which will resist the attempt to confiscate their wealth en masse = the 'shitholes' which the cracker boys here give the finger to in their infinite malice and superiority...you live in a place where 1-3 percent of the populace hold AU....those places where resistance and recovery will rise from will be those where the percent is above 80....no government would stand a chance of completing a confiscation of that kind.
As was correctly pointed out here recently, if you haven't already made the move by this time, it's probably too late now. However, I do still encourage anyone with a real hope to one day 'take back' our fallen western lands to still consider their options as to where to restart their lives from, before that one way Guantanamo ticket gets purchased in your name!
fantastic views.
I can't knowledgably speak about any place I've never lived, let alone visited. Thanks for sharing.
What you just helped me realize is that I should preface my assertion to apply for people in similar situations to myself.
...but as for those countries that still use the relic, If it TRULY takes on the value that the goldbugs would like to see it take... Well then we (or the people with the power/guns/etc... will eventually own it.
I commonly joke about how the fiat dollars are the greatest creation ever. Think about it... Trading pieces of paper or bytes and bits for real comodities! People are drilling up their oil, mining their gold, building us cars, making toys/PCs/etc... and doing all the labor involved, ...and in return we hand them slips of paper, that we can just inflate away.
It's friggin genius!!!
Long and short... eventually, i see the world reconnecting again (even if there is a collapse) into that worldwide network. Maybe a collapse will bring on a world currency?
take care.
RH/MA
That is the plan.
I have to agree with CD and Miss America. Gold is a tool. This all about surviving, not winning. Winning with these odds, an unfettered government and unrestrained financial oligarchy just is not in my tea leaves. Maybe survival isn''t either. But I know this, if I do everything I can to survive, I'll win just by succeeding. If I try and win and fail, survival may not be possible at all.
Its like a gunfight, surviving is the goal, winning can get you killed.
Miss America,
I agree to point,I also think a STRONG community is worth more than Gold or Silver,trouble is it may not be able to feed all.
As for having the foresight to purchase a hedge, I , and any others here did not do so to become the BANK for the end results of a corrupted and demolished system,only to hand it back over to them again.
As for use, it's insurance,not untold profits.Also, I will have it where no one can find it but me, even if I can never use it, it will not be taken by Decree, or by force.
I would rather some stranger happen upon it long after I am gone than to be the the Anchor to a criminal system, still full of the same useless and carnivorous bstds as before,restarting the same game as before and you know the same scum will be in charge.
IF it can be used at MY choosing to help others, NOT the ones who brought us down, then I will part with most of it, what small amounts I have accrued.
Property, ah, land, beautiful wonderful farmland, soil, able to sustain life,productive land.
A WONDERFUL investment in decent , good times.In the scenarios painted, it will be the LAST thing I want.
I cannot control taxes, or their rates, or if your Land, will not be by Decree also taken for nothing.( count on it)
It's a tough call either way, I just know I WILL refuse to help the bstds who put us here, and will fight them to the death before I capitulate.
Cheap price to pay.
Lived long enough, been screwed long enough,and as CD wrote, a lot depends on what form the re-start takes,which direction I choose.
I CHOOSE.
PS: One more item in reference to CD's dissertation...............the confiscation act, included silver.Still is in force, and can be ordered anytime.
There are so many things I like about where we are today.
My vote is to decontruct and reconstruct, but do it right. I believe in capitalism, ...but to a point. It's contrary to the point of capitalism... but I think capitalism should have "caps".
AND NO, this is not socialist!!! Ironic that Marx wrote how capitalism leads to socialism. 100 similar companies dwindle down to 5 in the name of efficiency. Then through those efficiencies the 5 companies all all do the same things, liniting choices, and creating kings and rulers at the top. with the debt slaves at the bottom.
I've written in the past in far greater detail about this, but I hope you get the point.
RH/MA
IMO people typically invest themselves in what they value, and value what they invest themselves in. WAY back 5 years ago it was being the guy who bought the shiney new house and two shiney new cars/trucks, etc. The hubris was massive. The self saticfaction was like a thick fog.
Gold probably will not ever come into that state within the minds of average people in the US. They already shot their wad, hit the wall, just trying to pay the bills and stay employed.
Sure, Insectus Aurous is kicking up his heals a bit. But there aren't that many around, so not real sure who cares.
IMO planning for fall back zones is pretty important these days. If TSHTF MadMax, etc write that off. Nothing you try to conceive today will match that scenario, ultimate fail.
Short of that: A zone, B zone, C zone...how many clicks, what's your route and transit time and what will you take with you/find there??
Will you need to "steal away in the night"? Like the good farmers in the MidWest during the Depression who went to the local monied man for a loan, pledging their land, then left town with a few hundred bucks? Saved face headed west and were treated like unwanted immigrants?
Then again there are things you can never foresee...
Here's something I can't foresee:
"They don’t need to ‘take’ your Gold, just take its value through price controls."
"They" implies that all nations/states/govts will be cooperating. They never do. Politics is war by other means, and that kind of warfare will never end. If the U.S. put artificially low prices on gold, the gold will just flow to capital-hungry countries that use market prices to attract the gold.
Even in FDR's 1933 gold confiscation, the prudent citizen had plenty of time to take his gold on vacation to Canada or Mexico or Europe, where he could exchange it for a currency that was not debased by FDR's gold revaluation from $20.67 to $35. Or just buy farmland with it, while it's still fungible.
I understand your point. However, the article was looking at one worst case scenario.
FDR was not dealing with a global fiat meltdown. We might just be. If this is the case, then everyone is in the same sinking boat and the impulse will be to cooperate until stability is achieved, even between enemies.
CD, with regard to FDR he was indeed very concerned that the monetary system of the US was falling apart. Local currencies were popping up like dandylions around the country as a solution to the darth of currency (hoarding of both gold coin and paper currency, which was a claim on US Treasury gold - had an option that you could redeem the paper money for gold coin).
In a two part move to buttress the Green Back FDR forced legislation that made owning monetary gold a crime (though it exempted antiquities, art and jewerly), closed the window to American citizens to convert paper money into gold coin, and then forced a revaluation of the US$ from $20.67 per ounce to $35 per ounce. From that point onward money could be printed without concern for limitation imposed by how much gold the nation had in its Treasury.
The final piece of the puzzle was when real estate loans were accepted as collateral from banks to borrow currency from the Federal Reserve System. Thus the US currency went from being a gold backed, convertable currency to essentially a MBS based currency. This collaterial allowed the Fed to print huge sums of money to recapitalize the remaining banks and economy.
Its rather convoluted, but the conditions today with regard to gold and the US$ really are not connected in the same way that they played out back in the 1930's.
IMO the reason the US Federal Reserve system was enacted (1913) was as a means of removing the financial constrains to prosecuting global warfare. The bankers knew WW1 was around the corner. In the USA they preemptively arrange for the government to have a vast ability to deficit spend in order to wage war. To understand what this means look at the financial result of WW1 on Britian, whose finances and currency were devastated due to the restraint of gold convertability VS the US whose unfettered finances allowed massive war material and logistics to be financed.
Guess who financed (and profited from) it? If you fingered the entities noted in the second sentence of the preceeding paragraph, then you win a prize.
"huge sums of money to recapitalize the remaining banks and economy"
.. with no finite base to limit the growth of the Ponzi.
Well said, except re "bankers knew...". Of course thay "knew". They arranged it. Granville Fortescue, in FRONTLINE, DEADLINE (1913): "France has bought Russia...World War imminent."
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, CD.
But I think you're a little too pessimistic.
In 1933, everyone had gold. Gold was money... and for convenience sake, their gold was in the bank. Most transactions were conducted with paper. So FDR had a very easy time of it seizing monetary gold, because very little of it was out of the system. And he had to do this as step 1 in his quest to devalue the currency. But now?
You've already stated you don't think the sub-20 ounces investors need to worry, or the > 1000 ounce investors, because the former are too small a target, and the latter likely to be holding their gold offshore. Well, who does that leave? Not a lot of people, and most of them are gun nuts as well as gold bugs. Yes, the US military could winkle their gold from them, but it's not 1933 now; as soon as they start moving in on people and confiscating gold, the rest of it will all disappear down holes in the ground as soon as word gets out. And if they've implemented a total news and internet blackout, people will be assuming the worst and hiding their gold anyway. So the amounts the government could confiscate simply wouldn't be worth the bother - there isn't much, and it's well hidden.
I also have a hard time believing they'll start blaming gold owners for the collapse. They've spent decades sneering at silly goldbugs, and saying how useless the stuff is; they'd look pretty silly admitting the goldbugs were somehow onto something all along.
So I can see them taxing it at high rates; but in a collapse scenario, I think the US empire will collapse and there'll be more competition between governments, and less international kow-towing to the US; thus, as has been noted by Imminent Crucible, if the US makes it difficult for its citizens to maximize their profits from gold ownership, the gold will go offshore.
Good pieces CD. The most important point you made in this installment is the difference between inflation and hyperinflation.
Inflation is an economic process and hyperinflation is a psychological event. They're only tangentially related.
Cog Diss, It was a worldwide (Global) depression ie a global meltdown, and all of the European countries also devalued their currencies in the 1930's. They do not seem to be cooperating at the present time, and Europe is sinking as we write.
I don't junk that often but you get one for whining about anonymity. Anonymity is kind of the point here.
Anonymity is not the point here. (its a luxury) The "point here" is to hopefully learn something. Maybe even teach something? I don't "junk" something without leaving a coment why, as to expand on why. IMO Anonymous junking is pointless. Do it though if you like... but I hope it doesn't deter another from reading and potentially learning from the "junked" piece.
I cherish your permission, jerky.
jerky? at least you left something as a reason. so i upped you. ...but did we learn anything or dissolve to name calling? congrats. i went for constructive, sorry.
I went for name calling. It felt right.
enjoy never meeting me.
There will be no "orderly" collapse. All of history argues against you. Gold will be useful, silver vital, and lead indispensible.
"Gold will be useful, silver vital, and lead indispensible"
So that's what you decided... I hope for your sake that the ones in power when there is a violent collapse will stop and say... How should we restructre this thing? Oh, well this anonymous poster named Compassionate Fascist on ZeroHedge decided it should be Gold/silver/led...
I've witnessed violent collapses of fiat Bear/Lehman/AIG... When paper wealth disolves, it seems easier to replace. that's just my theory. I coukld be wrong.
How do you see it? mad Max? seriuosly?
Paul will go Third Party, allowing Obama to "win" in the EC with c. 40% of the vote. This existential political crisis + Ponzi Collapse = Civil War II. First Tuesday in November, 2012. Then: 60 days to Fort Sumter. Seriously.
Ron Paul has my vote. Although I do fear the outcome. Comfort is tough to break from.
I'm hopeful for an orderly colapse. We've evolved quite a bit, and I hope we can prove that.
All the best to you this holiday season CF.
RH/MA
Let's see:
- Ned
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