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Iran-Israel Scenario Spiraling Down Rapidly

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One of the things Russ Winter does well as a result of his study of game theory is geopolitical analysis. I don't always agree with him, but he's always thoughtful and provocative. Lately he's been paying a lot of attention to the Iran-Israel situation. Here are his latest thoughts. ~ Lee Adler

Iran-Israel Scenario Spiraling Down Rapidly

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner  

In my view Israel has all but guaranteed that they will attack Iran's nuclear facility, and that the timing is imminent. Senior Israeli military and intelligence sources said Wednesday, Feb. 22, that Israel's strategic and military position in the Middle East has taken a sharp downturn.

1. UN inspectors were sent packing empty-handed from Tehran after attempting to gain access to nuke facilities. They were also denied an interview with Mohsen Fakrrizadeh, director of the Parchin project and also believed in the West to be the paramount head of Iran's military nuclear program.

2. The transfer of 20 percent uranium enrichment to Fordo is taken by Western and Israel intelligence experts to have accelerated the pace of enriching large quantities of 20 percent enriched uranium to weapons grade and shortened to an estimated six weeks the time needed for arming a nuclear bomb after a decision in Tehran.

3. There was a threat from Iran's Chief of Staff that Iran will not wait for "its enemies" - Israel and/or the US - to strike and will act first.

Iran for its part must be calculating that its facilities are not vulnerable to strikes at this stage. They have also put a wedge between the US and Israel, who seem engaged in back channel and public feuding. The war parties in Israel and Iran are in full ascendancy. This looks like much more than posturing. The oil embargoes are now hitting Europe hard as Brent Sea oil is now $124. For Iran this is a fiat accompli. Even short of conflict, this pressure on the West is costly. 

The issue as I see it is that analysts are overly focused on the US-Iran part of the equation, when the reality points to the grossly under-appreciated Israel-Iran aspect. I believe Israel will be forced to act unilaterally, and at that point all the unpredictable elements of conflict and war will manifest themselves. The key variable for the US is: will Iran attempt to close the strait of Hormuz. I believe they will, and at that point the US will respond accordingly. I don't think the US will be party to the Israeli preemptive attack. Judging from the threat seen in #3, Iran will likely hit the US even if the initial response is passive.

For additional analysis on many topics, including trading ideas, subscribe to Russ Winter’s Actionable – risk free for 30 days.  Click here for more information.  

 

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Fri, 02/24/2012 - 23:22 | 2194905 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Let me put it this way:

- i despise the frequent anti-israel rethorics on ZH by some posters (not because i do not think that israel's gov is behaving like shit, but instead because the relevant posts serve no selective judgement, but rather generic racial prejudice, and because they make it easy to discount ZH posters as nazis, when it isn't neccessary at all (hint: the global bankster kleptocracy, is not limited to israel)

- i in general consider biology an overstated (but not irrelevant) aspect, and culture an understated influence.... and have in multiple posts hinted at people having a "blind spot" regarding global "super-culture".

- in on ZH - because of the rightwing-bias - have a tendency towards leftwing (while on other communities, i tend towards rightwing).

 

 

AND YET:

I consider ISRAEL and LEBANON the CENTRE of danger and escalation regarding the topic at hand.

Why? Simple:

1. Israel not only cannot beat iran and more importantly indirectly hezbollah... it has already attempted to do so, and failed completely. Lesson: Israel cannot beat lebanon/hezbollah conventionally.

2. Hezbollah in turn is mainly financed and commanded by iran.

3. Iran by now has backing by russia and china!

4. Said hezbollah has about 100.000 low-tech rockets in fire range at israel. They can basically carpet-bomb them. This isn't your usual "barbarians with useless weapons"-force... hezbollah historically is the largest well trained and equipped commando force in HUMAN HISTORY!

5. US attacks iran, hezbollah attacks israel... israel cannot beat hezbollah itself conventionally, and has in the past already repeatedly discussed a nuclear strike against lebanon..... what would russia and china do? What is ANY alliance worth, if you do not react to a nuclear strike against one of your allies??????????

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 21:09 | 2191351 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

There are three points not made in either the article or the comments:

1)Iran is a theocracy

2)Religion is a just form of organized supersition

3)Organized supersition is anathema to the scientific method (see Galileo) and thus theocracies are unlikely to develop any significant technology without stealing it.  Remember, this is a country which can't refine its own crude (and distillation is just a form of enrichment).  Developing nuclear technology is orders of magnitude more difficult which is why the only original nuclear technology developed in world history occurred during the Mannhatten project and was subsequently stolen first by the Russians, then the Chinese, Indians etc.  Its not as easy to enrich unanium to weapons grade much less fabricate and test a working warhead.  It requires a respect for the scientific process in a culture which is present in Isreal but absent in any Islamic nation.  Thus, it is credible that Isreal has functional nuclear warheads, but Iran is unlikely to be able to develop them.

 

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 08:43 | 2192227 falak pema
falak pema's picture

By the same token, to follow your line of reasoning, a racial state cannot achieve stable democracy in a region where it has minority presence; if a theocracy cannot learn science.

Logic is a bitch.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 08:57 | 2192238 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

There is no democracy only kakistocracy in reality. Once again the nitwit above sums up a superficial argument based on crusading scientism. It's like an army of crusading Comte followers with you mouthbreathers.

Congratulations on disgracing A Love Supreme though.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 09:14 | 2192273 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Or blue Train...or my favourite things.

BTW Gene: What is "crusader scientism"?

Lol, I have heard of "crusader ideology"...like in 'de laude novae militiae'; but Crusader scientism...that's novel!

Unless you use "crusading" in a general sense...not just in Holy Land antics of medieval days!

And possibly now resuscitated by "clash of civilizations" ! To protect Oil patch plus local western implantation of special type.

Scientism - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 09:30 | 2192308 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

falak,

Coltrane sure could play, I think we agree there?

Great. Now that we're cool. The rationalization of the West is now basically resorting to naming anyone who doesn't agree with them 'irrational' which, for those that are familiar with the 'scientific' academia is code for: not to be trusted, disregarded and potentially dangerous. See here towards the end:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-jDXu8N0BU

Our resident ZH John C is deluded.

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 10:40 | 2192480 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Iranoia : Good summary, of current positions. Nothing new. Blatant double standards and ominous sabre rattling by Israel.

It is very clear that BN-Y's position is that election year USA is a golden opportunity for Israel to push forward an aggressive agenda with Iran as it did during 1991 war with Irak and the Osirak strike! 

In current unstable ME situation with near civil war all over Arab nations and the Oil spike now hurting a debt submergerd western depressionary environment, this is Sarajevo 1914 type dynamite. 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 02:26 | 2191924 Bear
Bear's picture

Come on ... Pakistan

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:40 | 2190939 RolloTamasi
RolloTamasi's picture

At least on the stage last night the ONE VOICE OF REASON said:

"Now, if they are so determined to go to war, the only thing I plead with you for, if this is the case, is do it properly. Ask the people and ask the Congress for a declaration of war. This is war and people are going to die. And you have got to get a declaration of war."

Ron Paul

Ron Paul or Gary Johnson 2012

No more compromise.

Sinking of the Maine, Lusitania, Pearl Harbor-(Not a surprise) Gulf of Tonkin, Operation Northwoods......wake up sheep!

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:41 | 2190934 RolloTamasi
RolloTamasi's picture

 

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:53 | 2190763 xela2200
xela2200's picture

3. There was a threat from Iran's Chief of Staff that Iran will not wait for "its enemies" - Israel and/or the US - to strike and will act first.

----------------------------

hum, can we see the source? Until now Iran has shown nothing but restrain.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:53 | 2190758 geno-econ
geno-econ's picture

Demographics is destiny and Isreal is on the losing end of time if they do not seek real peace. War is the only other alternative, but winning that war would be impossible and because of oil disruption would cause a worldwide depression.   Nukes have very little to do with current situation now as voiced by Defense Dept,  Obama not showing leadership on issue in an election year.  After election issue will subside somewhat unless NeoCons take over White House again via Gingrich, Cheney or some other pawn.  Oh yes ,Isreal today announced  600 more settlements. So as it stands today, Europe on brink of financial collapse, China facing economic bubble bursting, US in middle of electioneering and in fiscal denial while Israel is trying to survive an immenent treat from Iranian nuclear destruction?  Sounds like our priorities are screwed up

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:43 | 2190734 randomdrift
randomdrift's picture

I remember two things from a speech given by the secretary of the Navy to a graduation at the US Naval Postgraduate School, in Monterey CA, perhaps fourty years ago:

1) The purpose of an aircraft carrier is to intimidate small nations; and

2) Its life expectancy in a war against an advanced country is from fifteen to thirty minutes.

Iran is not intimidated and their military, or Russia's, is advanced enough that 15-30 minutes probably applies.  

The appropriate response of the US would be to demand that the military commanders responsible for those ships and their crews be tried, if, events unfold as expected.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:36 | 2190713 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

Israel has no intention of attacking Iran on it's own. They want to use AIPAC and the Zionist Israel-Firsters that infest the U.S. Government and Congress to force the U.S to do the attacking. They learned after the last invasion of Lebanon that it's better to let the Goyum to do the fighting for them.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:33 | 2190700 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Maybe Pakistan join in the fun and nukes Israel as payback for Iran?

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:32 | 2190695 Clovis Man
Clovis Man's picture

It's not my war, but if it were, I would wait for the take-down of Assad's government before attacking Iran. I think that might solve some of the peripheral concerns regarding, for example, Russia.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:36 | 2190715 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

That's what they plan to do.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:01 | 2190549 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

Temporal marker, Bitchezz

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 16:43 | 2190445 enclaved134
enclaved134's picture

3. There was a threat from Iran's Chief of Staff that Iran will not wait for "its enemies" - Israel and/or the US - to strike and will act first.

This assures that the US and Israel, in combination, will attack Iran. Iran has straight out promised us that we would be attacked. Obama cannot let that go unanswered. Iran has stated they will attack. Now if they do, before Obama acts, he will be crucified. Iran has just dug their own grave.

Israel can only do a half-assed job and it would take the US to make sure the attack was successful.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 16:58 | 2190501 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Iran is a continual menace to a peaceful world organized by division of labor and voluntary exchange. It is only logical for allies USA and Israel to coordinate a combined strike on Iran. I hope that European countries can assist us, too.

But I fear that the Natanz facility cannot be fully dealt with unless a tactical nuke is employed. We must not permit Iran to continue producing "cancer treatments" in these hardened underground bunkers.

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:10 | 2190588 john39
john39's picture

How many wars has Iran launched in the past 300 years?  How about the U.S. and Israel?  who is the "menance to a peaceful world again"?   good Jesus you trolls need to get a better script.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:21 | 2190644 Transformer
Transformer's picture

John, They've alreadly threatened us.  Democracy and freedom must prevail.  It is our honor to make the world safe for democracy.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:19 | 2190863 piceridu
piceridu's picture

dude please push the sarc on button

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:13 | 2190838 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Our honor? Are you going to be doing the fighting?

Honor is what they sell to kids so they can ship them to places they shouldn't be, so the few can profit from their blood. You will get laid if you have a shinny medal but not if your face gets burned to a crisp.

I grew up in a country at war, and I could not find anything honorable in it. Actually, it brings the absolute worst in people.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:37 | 2190704 Uncle Remus
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And what of constitutional republics, monarchies and emirates or even parliamentary republics?

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:16 | 2190850 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Don't bother. Most people don't know that we live in a constitutional republic as oppose to a democracy (rule by mob). That's why they laugh at Ron Paul.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:22 | 2190634 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

I maintain that the government of Iran is a menace. It prevents its citizens from engaging in voluntary exchanges that they would have chosen. It precludes the resources of the Iran from being used by competing entrepeneurs in service of the most urgent needs of humanity:

"Heavy state interference undermines economic freedom in every category measured in the Index and seriously degrades economic dynamism. As a result of rampant corruption and deficiencies in the legal framework, the rule of law remains fragile and uneven. The government dictates most production and investment activity and derives most of its revenue from the oil sector... Corruption pervades all branches of government." - http://www.heritage.org/index/country/iran

It is justified to attack Iran for the same reason that it is moral to dismantle the mafia or a violent drug gang. In particular, because it has embarked on creating nuclear weapons or "cancer medicines" in hardened underground facilities, Iran is logically estopped from objecting to such weapons being used on itself.

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:57 | 2190770 xela2200
xela2200's picture

I maintain that the government of Iran is a menace. It prevents its citizens from engaging in voluntary exchanges that they would have chosen.

==================

And they probably don't allow their citizens to chew gum. How is all of that any of the US's business? And how is that a threat to us? Maybe, the US should stop been the MORAL police of the world. Me thinks.

You smell like a troll. Sorry, try a forum frequented by the sheep.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:31 | 2190691 battle axe
battle axe's picture

Dr. Acula, one simple question, where does the US get the money to pay for this glorious war? Because if you have not heard, we are fucking BROKE. I am hoping that you are like MDB and are joking...

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:47 | 2190735 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

When the police arrest a criminal, after he is convicted he is made to pay fines and his property can be seized which helps pay for the enforcement costs.

Likewise, a successful defeat of Iran can be followed by the extraction of war reparation payments. The best outcome would be the provisioning of security services - i.e. defending people's freedoms - yielding financial gains.

Strictly speaking the USA does not have any problem with running out of money, it is rather the pool of real capital that is scarce. So it is still important to have allies like Israel and European countries collaborate in this effort. The more temporally focused the application of force against the enemy is, the less the costs will be in the end.

 

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 08:49 | 2192236 falak pema
falak pema's picture

I don't know what he has a doctorate in but most likely it is in Inquisitorial theology; as manifest destiny seems to be his strong suit, just like it was for GWB of WMD fame; the man who would like to go down in history as a "compassionate conservative of born again strain". 

Dr Acula be you a distant cousin of Prince Dracula...? It would make your avatar more in keeping to your professed mindset.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 20:05 | 2191198 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

In full raving and drooling mode, Dr. Acula asserted:

Likewise, a successful defeat of Iran can be followed by the extraction of war reparation payments.

...just like the successful implementation of the Treaty of Versailles.

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:18 | 2190809 xela2200
xela2200's picture

So the US should go attack Iran and loot it? Sounds good! When are you enlisting? No? OK One or two of your kids would do. Don't worry. He will be allowed to take as much as he can carry if he still has arms that is.

Germany and France were enemies now they are the best of friends. Japan is kissing China's ass. The US fought 2 wars against England. I even think that Andrew Jackson enjoyed killing a few himself.

Funny thing about allies, their loyalties change at the whim of the politicians who run them.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:52 | 2190757 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

Folks...Dr. Acula is AMAZING!

By his comments, it is obvious that works for KBR, GS, NSA, AIPAC, and GE......all at the same time!!!

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:04 | 2190802 Chump
Chump's picture

He is certainly amazing here, but not for the reason you think.

*slow clap*

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:26 | 2190674 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

"Heavy state interference undermines economic freedom in every category measured in the Index and seriously degrades economic dynamism. As a result of rampant corruption and deficiencies in the legal framework, the rule of law remains fragile and uneven. The government dictates most production and investment activity and derives most of its revenue from the oil sector... Corruption pervades all branches of government."

Jeebus - that could apply to virtually every country on the planet, especially the US.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 16:40 | 2190427 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Amen, just sail the 5th Fleet the hell out of there and put Israel on notice that they're on their own.  If they wish to shit in their bed, we aren't going to change the sheets...

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 16:45 | 2190458 enclaved134
enclaved134's picture

When the attack comes there will be at least three Aircraft Carrier Strike Groups involved, of at least the 5th and 7th fleets.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 16:37 | 2190408 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

You can write volumes upon volumes on this and related issues but Metastar sums it up best: "Yes, The citizens are the prisoners."  That's all that needs to be said!

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:02 | 2190545 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

Freeing Iranian citizens from tyranny is yet another reason justifying war.

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 19:59 | 2191184 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Dr. Acula, displaying a parasitic bloodlust, said:

Freeing Iranian citizens from tyranny is yet another reason justifying war.

"Freeing Iranian citizens from tyranny by freeing them of the burden of life means that God is on our side."

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:32 | 2190874 preppin.for.the...
preppin.for.the.big.one's picture

Yup... the "freedom from tyranny" refrain seems to have worked out pretty well for all the civilians killed and maimed in Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Grenada, Lebanon, Honduras, El Salvador, Panama, Iraq, Afghanistan & Kuwait. 

Look at all we've accomplished in the last 50 years!  Yea for us!

/sarc

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:18 | 2190633 Budd aka Sidewinder
Budd aka Sidewinder's picture

Will they return the favor?

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:23 | 2190656 Transformer
Transformer's picture

I am sure they will welcome American troops with open arms, maybe even flowers.  They will be so happy to be liberated!!

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:36 | 2190703 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

They do not need to be directly thankful. It is enough to liberate them for everyone to enjoy the blessings of a more peaceful world with increased division of labor and voluntary exchange.

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 18:24 | 2190868 xela2200
xela2200's picture

Have you EVER been to Iran? How do you know what they want? Maybe, they could come here to liberate us from our bank overlords.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 16:38 | 2190407 Overdrawn
Overdrawn's picture

Alternative scenario:

 

Ron Paul becomes President and leaves Iran and Israel to sort out their own problems.

5th Fleet observed sailing happily off into the sunset.

And the West lives happily ever after.

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:35 | 2190708 smb12321
smb12321's picture

Unless Iran just happened to launch a nuke and the Middle East oil supply stopped.  I doubt even the most pro-Iranian ZH cheerleader actually believes Iran only wants "peaceful nuclear power."   I mean, I may be the village atheist but you don't have to be the village idiot.

Considering the consequences, it's doubtful that Israel prefers a war.  The only ones who do are the Shia maniacs who think it would bring the Mahdi.  Jesus, hasn't Iran read the 2009 study that Israel would suffer  600,000 casualties but Iran as a nation and a culture would be eliminated? But if you yearn for death then why worry?

 

Thu, 02/23/2012 - 17:57 | 2190777 my puppy for prez
my puppy for prez's picture

You are obviously unaware that the Zionists are anticipating their OWN Messiah, as well....and plan on ruling the world.  They are just smarter than to broadcast it to the world like 12'ers!

Fri, 02/24/2012 - 08:18 | 2190343 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

3000 Dead Americans buys you a lot of loyalty, money well spent by Israeal on all that Thermite, I wonder what the ratio was 1Kg of Thermite for 1 Dead American paid for by the US-Israel arms subsidies too

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