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Larry Summers on Labor Participation Rate
Larry Summers Blows It on TV
Courtesy of Bruce Krasting
The Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is a key economic statistic today. Changes in the LFPR are shaping the direction of the capital markets, federal economic policy, monetary policy and, most importantly, politics.
The LFPR hit a new record low on Friday. The key question that must be answered is:
Is the current LFPR a temporary phenomenon, or is this the “New Normal?”
If the current LFPR is, in fact, the new normal (I think it is), it has profound implications on the macro economic outlook for the USA. Virtually all of the economic models used by CBO, OMB, SSA and private economists are assuming that the long-term LFPR will be in the mid-to upper 60s. The consensus is 2-3% higher than where it is today.
If you plug in a rate of 63% versus 67% over the next ten-years, it makes a huge difference on the size of the deficit and the public debt. It would cause the deficits at Social Security and Medicare to explode. The percentage of GDP attributable to the government would inevitably rise. The economy, and society in general, would be socialized.
I don’t think there is a macro economist or economic policy deep-thinker out there that does not recognize the significance of the LFPR, or that it’s hitting new lows.
Let me confirm the data. This from the BLS. Note that January's reading fell 0.3% to a multi-decade low:
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This chart is also from the BLS. The trend is obvious:
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I think most of the Biz press had the story right. The drop in the LFPR was highlighted (accurately) by many:
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Okay, I hope I’ve convinced you of two things. 1) The LFPR is a very important statistic, and 2) The BLS reported on Friday that the LFPR had fallen to a new record low in January.
Now listen to what Larry Summers had to say about the LFPR this morning on ABC’s This Week show. (This is a painless, no commercial, 90 second video.)
Larry Summers is a possible candidate as the next Treasury Secretary. He has all the credentials. He knows where the bathroom is; he’s had the job before. But he blew it on the issue of what happened to the LFPR this month. He gave the wrong answer, with 10mm people watching.
Looking at the macro picture, anyone that is worth their salt should not have gotten this wrong. It’s too important. Possibly an explanation by Mr. Summers will be forthcoming.
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...any time you see Larry, all you need to do is chant ''Brooksley Brooksley Brooksley Born''. The guy will lose it every time. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUv4hp3hKxs&feature=related
Did Larry Summer just have a bowel movement as he said "the labor participation did not decline." Only for Larry Summers can the shit come out the wrong end.
...there is a new medical term for what comes out of Larry's kisser. It's called LS3FS. It's a medical term for a virus transmitted among bankers. The full medical term is ''Larry Summers Feculent Financial Fraud Syndrome''. The slang term used among Doctors is called RF36 (Revelation Frogs 666) or ''Twisted Frog Breath''. LS3FS is the prefered term used by The Great Wal Mart of China Shrink Doctors when informing high end patience that they are full of shit. The usual treatment is a Cherry Life Saver placebo and an Exorcism Consultant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWl2ek7CxBM&feature=related
No more Larry Summers in government!
Keep Larry selling out at Harvard, massaging “research” to support the financial elite.
Summers is so crooked that even his face has become lopsided. Crooked lies from a crooked face. Look on the bright side at least Corzine is out for the next Treasury Secretary.
I liked Summer's portrayal in Social Network. Seems consistent with the factually immune economic pawn he is to this day. Hey Larry: Fuck You!
By Paul Ekman
http://books.google.com/books?id=qQfil4lYKckC&printsec=frontcover&dq=%22...
Larry SUmmers
Roubini's business partner
@nouriel
when did you sell out or have you always been bought and paid for?
"The central irony of financial crisis is while it is caused by too much confidence, too much borrowing and lending and too much spending, it can only be resolved with more confidence, more borrowing and lending, and more spending."
Larry Summers October 23, 2011
He didn't have 10 million viewers but I'd say he blew it big time three and a half months ago. What an ultramaroon.
Hubris (and economic weasletude) thy name is Larry Summers.
@ Hetty
Plus 100 for "economic weasletude".
You've been around for years and I've never noticed you. Please pick a pic for your avatar so you will stand out in the future.
even if he did, how many of those viewers even understand simple economics, never mind a 'labour force participation rate'...
Beat me to it. How Summers has kept any job is simply more evidence of how desperate the status quo is. Whether or not he taste like chicken is irrelevant, this mother fucker will be eaten. I figure he must be the sacrifice. No one could ever be so well positioned and so stupid at the same time. Got your personal well fortified plantation in Barbados? You better!
Summers is one of the most well-connected people in America.
Summers was born in New Haven, Connecticut, on November 30, 1954, the son of two economists, Robert Summers and Anita Summers, who are both professors at the University of Pennsylvania, as well as the nephew of two Nobel laureates in economics: Paul Samuelson (sibling of Robert Summers, who, following an older brother's example, changed the family name from Samuelson to Summers) and Kenneth Arrow (Anita Summers's brother).
Summertime...when the living is eeeeeeasy...fish r jumping and the cotton is high!
Sorry, had to say it...irrepressible urge! Like flushing the toilet!
But, but, but...what a dynasty you've fished out there!
Rose and thorn pricks.
There is no such thing as a Nobel Prize in Economics. They made up some prize in honor of Nobel, for economics, but it is not the same. The lie keeps keeping on.
"How Summers has kept any job........." he swallows.
the fucker even looks like one of those creeps you see mingling around park restrooms.
Oh I see, another denizen of park restrooms just like me. Which is your favorite? I'm an afficionado myself. DC restrooms are the best they have the most juicy gossip and evil characters.
Just re-watched the Frontline show "The warning"
Summers, Greenspan, Rubin, all scumbags of the highest order...
Yes. Those were/are really our Troika...
and the Bernank their offspring.
PBS Frontline: The Warning - http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDoQ...
Summers is a terrible liar (at least this time). He blinked (and once for a long time) 6 times in 5 seconds in the last segment. A classic sign that you are being lied to.
Another lying Jew. John Williams says the real unemployment rate is 22%. The majority of the new jobs created went to immigrants.
Who's not looking forward to Summers and Corzine in Obamas 2nd administration?
when all else fails... lie your ass off. Ler probably figured it's election season, no one would notice. As for the employment situation, a grown man just bagged my groceries. Hurray for the service (servant) economy.
A frail old white woman at least 70 years old checked me out at Satan's hardware store, AKA Lowes.
"When it gets serious, you HAVE to lie." ~the Junck-man
Summers makes me think things must be REALLY serious.
Notice he blinks when he actually says "it hasn't not declined". Some psychologists say this particular body movement is a sign of conscious lying (the personality wants to close the eyes to "hide" from other people hoping to slip the lie in without other people seeing it).
Also, known as the "hard blink".
Its like right before anyone jumps off a really high cliff and doesn't know for sure if they will survive.
Always telling...nice catch.
+1.. I posted before I read down further.
The best liars look you straight in the eye and try hard not to blink.
Which is another tell ;-)
Larry Summers...will we ever be shed of whackademic imbeciles?
You would think at some point even the fawning MSM would say...ya know what, this guy brings no added value to anything under discussion here. He's never been right on anything as far as I can tell.
What's next, Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein writing a book on Statist Unemployment Chartology? Subtitled How We Took a Bad Situation and Made It Worse for Everyone Accept Our Friends.
I'm gonna go be physically ill now.
"What's next, Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein writing a book on Statist Unemployment Chartology? Subtitled How We Took a Bad Situation and Made It Worse for Everyone Accept Our Friends." @nmewn...that's fucking funny:
That was quite a chart/sales pitch they put together wasn't it? ;-)
This one looks close to up to date...
http://www.therightsphere.com/wp-content/uploads/updated-unemployment-stimulus-graph1.png
Good thing O'Barry put Biden in charge of keeping an eye on who got the money...nothing could possibly go wrong with that plan...lol.
And with all these brand new sparkling roads & bridges for statists to drive on, it makes their commute much easier and less stressful.
Now they don't have to watch out for the unemployed dashing in & out of their lanes because the unemployed can't afford the gasoline to be out there.
Its like a win win...for them.
"war with Syria." And there you go! "Participation" problem solved...
Too small. "Negative, negative, it didn't go in. It just impacted on the surface."
Use the FORCE, malek...
So Larry played Porkins? I always wondered about that guy...At least we know he has a career to fall back on.
Jaba speaks....and drools
Unemployment Rate is a totally bogus statistic. The definition is constantly changed and employees leaving the workforce (involuntarily) are not counted. LFPR says it all. We are in a major contraction that will last until the global economy is restructured into a sustainable system at a lower level of economic activity (due to resource constraints, aging demographics, and a credit collapse).
300mm living humans in the US. (give or take)
A .1% decrease in the labor participation rate is 300k.
This makes all recent "unemployment" data utterly irrelevant.
It really is basic. The MSM is part of the scam.
I'm the mark.
Semantics ... Larry Summers said precisely 'labour force participation' did not decline, although he knew that the labour force participation RATE had declined.
He defines the first differently. All he was saying, was that:
Such people as were lucky to have jobs, were 'participating' in labour as much as before.
I noticed that too.
Funny and surprising sometimes how US citizens get caught to their own game.
Summers is factually correct. US citizens blaming him for words he did not utter are putting words into his mouth.
Apparently, some US citizens are slipping toward the wrong side of US citizenism and little semantics games no longer entertain them.
Was Larry blobbing or not, I'm always confused on this topic.
Larry Summers should have said....
Nothing to see here....
All is well....
JHC.. He is not a good liar..watch his eyes..
You don't have to be a body language expert.
If he was working for Goebbels, he would already have been drug out back to the wall.
...and we haven't even addressed Steve Liesman. At least Summers knows he's lying. Liesman actually believes what he says. That's more dangerous. True pathology trumps simple deceit any day.
Looks like Larry has gone on a diet.
Ok, so maybe LFPR declined ... a little. Maybe Larry likes to round up. He has always been pretty rotund.
Maybe no one really needs to work anymore.
Don't they have machines for that?
99.9% won't even know it. The sheep guy voting for the "hero" to be the next president is focusing mostly on the candidate's looks and how exceeding articulate and convincing the candidate can lie with a bold and charming face.
At least 98% won't even be able to roughly explain what the Labor Force Participation Rate is...