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On Sentiment
It has been my observation over (sadly) a long period of time that when all of the “stars” line up and point in one direction, it’s often time to go in another direction. The commentary on the TV shows and newspapers is usually the last place one would go to for investment advice. The media is, however, a good place to consider if one was looking for signs that sentiment has gotten away from reality. I wonder if the market enthusiasm in this ABC News clip isn’t a signal that we have reached a tipping point.
All of these “stars” are now on the same page. Is it possible that they could all be right? If so, that would be a first.
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This reminds me of 2007/2008. Correct me if i'm wrong but didn't the dow hit 14000 like six months after the ground started to shake and housing prices started to fall during the middle of 2007. I think that we are seeing a similar event here. The bulls are charging right into a brick wall.
Reminds me of last year. All the recovery BS was hyped up, we had four straight months of 200,000 plus new jobs, (if you buy the BLS numbers)stocks were up by 10% into early April and then reality hit like a ton of bricks. Q1 GDP came out up 0.7%, (later revised down to 0.4%)layoffs began to pick up and everybody realized they had been BS'ed into believing a lie. This year will be even worse with an election underway.
Buy, buy, buy..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=echAo3hmz3E
Interesting observation Bruce, I suspect you will be proven correct.
And isn't Geithner's cubicle opening up soon? These pedersasts are probably bucking for promotions.
I haven't watched a network news broadcast in years. Didn't know Diane Sawyer was still employed.
I, too, haven't watched network news for years. The only show on ABC I watch is a detective show named Castle. Curiously, it is also the only show on any network I've heard actually describe the American weakness resulting from our debt. At the very end of the most recent episode a main character quickly went over a thwarted plot that tied a theoretical Chinese refusal to fund our debt with the eventual downfall of the American government. Who would have thought a fictional show would broach this subject, however briefly, when the 'serious' shows are merely cheerleading without contributing serious commentary?
My TV has been down since 1988. I'm refusing to watch TV news until they go back and rerun Cronkite, Carson, and Ed Sullivan. Sort of my "Fallout" response to our current political class.
I didn't know Diane Sawyer was still alive.
She's not actually, but the act is such a huge draw -- whaddya gonna do? Show must go on!
you no doubt have heard of Alien hand syndrome - well poor old Dianne suffers from a similar disorder Alien Eyebrow Syndrome
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alien_hand_syndrome
http://dwz.psych.ucla.edu/AlienHandReprint.pdf
Diane Sawyer: The Eve Arden of TV "news". She looks like she's always just left a cocktail party right before she slips into the newsroom - breath freshhhhhh of those yummy martinis. Boozy delivery. Matronly look. ..........awful....and she gets paid by the bozos at ABC......
I haven't watched that nest of vipers since I don't know when. i assume Diane gives good head. Her breathless delivery of lies is fascinating.
That could be why people suspected her of being 'Deep Throat' when she was working for Nixon. She would have been a tall, thin blonde in her mid to late 20's then.
We know now that it was really Mark Felt..... or do we???
Sangell +1 and ditto
Isn't Diane Sawyer Tom's sister?
I think she is old enough to be Tom's sister.
LOL -- "Best in Thread"
No; she's his daughter.
There's a suburban park named after her Republican Louisville County-Exec father near where he was killed in a car accident on I-64.
signed, former short-time Louisville resident.
It's an election year. Obama has to have the MSM out there not only saying that everything is "ok" but that its rocketing to the moon.
Yep, elections have most to do with the lame stream media wanting Nobama re-elected.
The lame stream media was GIDDY about the dow touching 13k, and didnt even finish their sentences before trying to spin it into some nobama commercial.
It's disgusting.
Where is the media crying about rising gas prices? oh yeah, Bush isn't in office.
Isn't it a problem of timing?
The delusional optimists can bullshit all they want about things looking up - it's blatantly obvious that the whole edifice will collapse (and surely they know that too)... but when?
Sword of Damoclese.
Until then, the shills can point to the figures and claim to be vindicated.
Many people seem to believe the shills more than they believe their own eyes and experiences.
Too many fuckwits - how can disaster be averted in the face of such overwhelming fuckwittery?
Sword of Damoclese.
An Italian?
An Italian?
Me? No - a British who can't spell properly :P
This is an interesting point. I'm not a trader but if I was I would begin not with the numbers but the hype. I think this is absolutely crucial in understanding not only the way markets "work" (or "function on a daily basis) but how these "ramp ups" in actuality occur. THEN you go to the data. "don't fight the tape" is an old stand-by...but perhaps a better phrase would be "be the tape" and in so doing discover the inefficiencies that occur as the various "trader thesis' are run through at the open." the fool of course is the one who "plays to win." this is more like baseball...playing for "the average"...with all the various stats and numbers to go along with it. I'm sure a multitude of books have already been written about it...but don't kid yourself: the big boyz are the banks--you're only as good as your ability to leverage...and repay.
Welcome to the recovery.
Do they ever say 'anything' else?
Buy, BUY, BUY
No. But that does not mean "they" are buying. Think of it as a stage coach with a half dozen horses pulling it. If the bank is the coach...who's in charge once that thing get's moving? I'm mean Ben Bernanke has really got those horses fired up--is that the right thing for what they're pulling tho?
there should be something like weekly Dumb Money Focus Indicator for a given asset:
(MSM headlines about given asset) / (MSM headlines in general)
and Sheeple Hallucination Index:
|bullish MSM headlines - bearish MSM headlines| / (MSM celebrities'n'affairs headlines)
Banzai sure could have fun with that most wanted list Kotok and Sonders and Swonk Oh My !
who's the dude with the neon teeth?
meanwhile Faber has a different perspective
Marc Faber Says Equities Are ‘Overbought’ (Audio)
http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/vlaOlV7FNCOk.mp3
fast forward to 3:39 where he talks about consensus
a choir song...Ave MAria...Pater Noster...May the sun never set on WS...
They're all reading from the same script.
This is so, profoundly, disturbingly, sad.
+1
It's sad: The wholesale raping of the taxpayer can only be followed by the wholesale "fleecing" of anybody that thinks the concepts of "investment" and "markets" exist.
They do not (anymore, at this time).
We are about to see a coordinated deflationary action, it is staged, and it is intentional, and consistent with any reasonable definition of "deception" (for those that claim to report/analyze such things) and "fraud" (for those that claim to represent "facts-related-to-inducement").
The bright side: Both sides hate their parties, and all people everywhere hate their authoritarian central planners. The system at all levels is operating without legal and moral authority, and the people are now rejecting it.
The result is *not* anarchy. The result will be a re-structuring with actions-in-line-with-authority-granted. This is A Good ThingTM.
foreclosures? what foreclosures? i don't see any foreclosures
Signed,
Linda Green
I'll wager that within a modest number of weeks one of the most frequently used phrases from this group will be:
" (x.x) trillions of dollars of wealth wiped out."
.. and they probably have forgotten all about the concept of "irrational exuberance".
Give me 15 to one odds and I'll take that for a few large
VXX Jun16 C40
Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.
- Irving Fisher, 1929