Consider this – you are in charge of your household budget. You have reasonably certain income of $2,400 per month but have fixed expenses of $3,000 with needed but “discretionary” or “variable” expenses of $600. The interest bill on your debt (included in your fixed expenses) is $500.
You are short ($3,600 - $2,400) $1,200 per month and are doing next year’s budget.
If you are a Keynesian, you believe you can increase your income by increasing your debt. You do this by increasing your fixed expenses from $3,000 to $3,200 (interest bill rises to $600 and you increase other fixed expenses by $100) and don’t change your discretionary expenses of $600.
You would now be short $1,400 per month. You can get the bank to continue to lend because your credit is (supposedly) unlimited, until you increase your income.
The problem is you have insufficient income. You need to become more valuable. Changing the amount of debt you owe, or the speed at which you increase your debt, does not change your income or your value one iota. Each year, the bank will keep putting you into more and more debt, until it passes to your children to pay off and your fixed expenses are made up almost entirely of interest on the debt that you owe.
If you are sensible (not drunk and not “austere” but live within your means) you know that you are already doing the best you can and no higher paying job exists or that the chance of a promotion is remote. Therefore, you need to reduce all your fixed and variable expenses to below your income. To do this, you need to eradicate your discretionary expenses entirely and reduce your fixed expenses to below your income.
In other words, fixed expenses need to drop to below $2,400 per month and discretionary expenses drop to zero. That is, no discretionary spending at all movies, holidays, second cars, homes, computers, TV’s elective surgery or education.
In order to get the interest bill down you need to drop fixed expenses to below $2,400, you need to cut fixed expenses from $3,000. That means a cut of at least 20%.
All in all, you need to drop your fixed and variable expenses by at least from $3,600 to $2,400 or by one third.
If you are sensible, you will repay the debt and save money instead, so that you can earn interest. Cutting fixed expenses by one half would enable you to repay debt at the rate of $600 per month.
Multiply all of these numbers by a billion and treat the numbers as annual, and you have the state of the government debt market (excluding states and cities). The starting amount of debt is 16.7 trillion. Running a fiscal surplus of 600 billion a year would bring the debt down to zero in 28 years, with a further 28 years to generate assets that would supplement taxes of 2.4 trillion by 500 billion a year.
Which person is sensible? The Keynesian or the "austere" person?