Syria

Syria and Beyond As we segue toward another Middle East adventure in Syria in response to chemical weapons it would be useful to discuss what end results are expected. It would be a feel good moment to prove that we are compassionate but air strikes and no fly zones will not change hatred and deplorable and inhuman atrocities. On one side we have a dictator, Bashar Assad whose minority ethnic group has ties to Shia elements in Lebanon and Iran and on the other dozens of disorganized secular Sunni rebel groups and dissident Syrian military personnel plus well organized al Qaeda militia that have flooded into the country from other Middle East nations as well as Europe. We have been shipping arms to the rebels and most likely those weapons are ending up in the hands of the Islamist. As heart wrenching as the photos of chemical weapons victims are, 100,000 Syrians have been killed as we stood on the side lines for two years. Why act now and for what purpose? If we change the equation and Assad is deposed there is a distinct possibility that the chemical weapons stores will end up in the hands of al Qaeda. Russia and Iran are supporting Syria with weapons. Hezbollah and the elite Iranian Quds militia are supporting the Syrian army. Our intelligence sources – the rebels – claim that Assad approved the use of chemicals; the Syrian government claims it was the rebels. Russia supports the Syrian version and will oppose the US in the UN. From President Bush’s military and political missteps to President Obama’s leading from behind in 10 years we have created an environment that has allowed Islamic fundamentalists to become potent forces of transformation in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Egypt, Syria, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain We have already made a disastrous blunder in Iraq based on faulty intelligence on weapons of mass destruction. Our invasion cost the lives of 100,000 Iraqis and 2 million fled as refugees. We replaced a Sunni dictator with a Shia Prime Minister and a Parliament controlled by the party of a radical Shia cleric who has strong ties to Iran, hates the US, and fought us with his militia. Our actions in Iraq and Afghanistan resulted in 6000 dead US military, 50,000 maimed and cost $1.5 trillion to date with decades of similar costs to care for the wounded. We are simply another invading army dripping blood in the sand with no lasting affect on the region. Iraq is on the cusp of a civil war as Sunni militia have regrouped and are attacking Shia in an attempt to return to power. When we leave Afghanistan the Taliban will return to power. We had co-opted Gadhafi but for some inexplicit reason we decided to bring him down. The result was to give control of Libya to a gaggle of Islamic militias which resulted in the deaths of four US officials and spread that nations stockpile of weapons to al Qaeda linked groups across the Sahara desert from Morocco to Somalia. We encouraged the Egyptian rebels who brought down Mubarak and approved an election which put a Muslim Brotherhood president in power by popular vote. After waiting in the wings for 90 years and being suppressed by the military President Morsi made a fatal mistake in quickly ramming thru the new Parliament a constitution which was based on Shariah law. This resulted in a backlash from the secular Muslims who joined with the military in a coup and returned to brutal military control. Both sides in Egypt now hate the US. Islam is a multi faceted culture that includes religious, political, military and social elements that are incompatible with democracy. About 1.5 billion Muslims populate Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia in a complex matrix of religious, racial, ethnic, clan and tribal dynamics that are beyond our government’s level of understanding. Our continual meddling provokes the Islamic masses against us. Syria is no threat to the US. Any military action that we initiate against the country has a high probability of eliciting an attack against Israel by Hezbollah or Iran or other unintended consequences such as a military mistake by either the US or Russia which turns into a global conflict of unthinkable consequences. Any action which brings down Assad will give the Islamists control of Syria and ultimately lead to destabilization of Jordon and Saudi Arabia. We have not acted against Assad in two years of carnage. We should remain on the sidelines offering humanitarian aid and allow the antagonists to exhaust each other and ultimately redefine the nation as a balkanized state with the various combatants controlling small regional enclaves. We are being attacked at home and abroad because of our continued insistence on some vague rhetoric about our interests in the region. Our interests ended in the 1970s when the Muslims abrogated the oil concessions with US companies with no retribution from the US government but we continue to inflame the region. We need to leave. Saladin’s prophetic statement I warn you against shedding blood, indulging in it and making a habit of it for blood never sleeps is as valid today as the 12th century when he forced the Crusaders out of the Middle East. Charles Campbell Retired Senior Vice President Gulf Oil Corporation