"No bell at the Top"

Some market savvy people feel it's just a matter of time before there's another crisis in the markets like what happened in 2008. In earlier panics, a sharp spike in the "call money" rate was an early sign (indeed, a clarion call)that liquidity was drying up and there was a looming problem for the equity (stock) market. It happened in 1907, and again just before the "29 Crash. That of course is not likely to happen today with the Fed actively managing (manipulating)the short end of the curve.Traders today have to be alert for signals of a different kind. Technical signs of a possible break-down in prices, or maybe just an erosion in the market internals like a series of distribution days (on increasing volume)where the market goes no where with declining stocks leading advancers and more new lows than highs. More significant though would be the anecdotal reports of credit tightening and increased counter-party concerns. For instance, if J.P. Morgan were suddenly to back away from a big swaps deal with Citi Bank or Bank of America. When that happens, and it will happen again, it won't make any difference what the macro economy is doing - just like it didn't make any difference in the 1987 stock market Crash. The economy - as measured by GDP - actually finished the final quarter that year up over 5.5%. The first sign in the 2008 financial crisis was a seize-up in the short-term credit market and wide-spread counter party concern and failure. And that's the way it'll be next time. Analyst who spend all their time studying the macro economy, or those who get too over obsessed with corporate earnings will be the road-kill in the next financial debacle. The Money Trader