European Instability

Belarus and European Instability . Andre Willers 16 May 2014 Synopsis : Another patchwork state becoming unglued due to insufficient reserves . The next domino after Ukraine . Then others will follow , as the EU unravels . Endemic warfare ensues . Discussion : 1.GINI : http://www.quandl.com/demography/gini-index-by-country Belarus : 26.48 (2011) Ukraine : 25.62 (2010) See Appendix AA for a discussion of what this means . Basically , the State has insufficient reserves to counteract centripetal forces , especially if under hostile attack . 2.Belarus has a diverse ethnic and language make-up . See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus And it borders on Russia , Ukraine and Lithuania . It has a state military (mostly conscripts) and a private sector with insufficient reserves to motivate and maintain itself leads to instability , regardless of the ideology . It didn’t work for the USSR , and the same result will follow for Belarus after the Ukraine has fallen apart . 3. Other nearby countries at risk because of insufficient reserves (low GINI) 3.1 Slovakia (26) , Czech (25) , Serbia (27) , Bulgaria (28) 3.2 At risk countries with reserves that are so spread out they cannot be mobilized quickly . Vulnerable to a political blitzkrieg . Germany (28) , Denmark (24) , Finland (26) , Sweden (25) , Norway (25) . 3.3 Countries at risk because of regional GINI differences . (a)Belgium : see Appendix BB . One half of the country is paying for the other half . If there is even a slight hiccup in EU subsidies to Brussels , Belgium will fly apart . (b) Venice : The same story . The Venetians have already voted to secede from Italy . See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venetian_independence_referendum,_2014 . Italy might fall apart completely into it’s natural form of city-states . (c) The rest all have risks . See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_separatist_movements_in_Europe UK is already happening . Spain seems to be at high risk . (d) Germany collapsing into a number of small states (like before Bismarck) is unfortunately quite likely if the EU falls apart . Note the “Ossie” – “Wessie” divide . The GINI’s of the two regions are quite different . See http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.43930.de/dp540.pdf The German state looks rather fragile . The old GDR GINI ~ 22 compared to Germany’s ~ 28 . This is a huge difference . The whole amalgamation process seems to have stalled in the mid 1990’s , leaving a lot of bitterness . See the Conclusion in the URL . 4.Endemic Warfare . The result would be a large number of small , very homogenous states that are extremely xenophobic . Something like Medieval Europe . Note that “Warfare as the Game of Kings” was an integral part of the system . It purged the system of those pesky adventurous spirits . Until Napoleon spoiled it all . (Why he is known as The Great Disturber) One can then expect a resurgence of organized religion , especially Roman Catholicism with its proven track record of mind control (confessional , etc) The Internet would be under strict secular and religious control , except for pockets of skunk-works where anything goes as long as it is to the advantage of the State . Religious fascism with ghettoes of freedom to produce the technology to perpetuate the State . This has happened before . Think Universities in Medieval Europe. The system under stress will be very inclined to follow the path of least resistance as in the previous instance . 5.The Singularity . Technological singularities would be more likely in such an environment . The argument is similar to the West’s development of technology from small , quarrelling states circa 1400 – 1800 . Diversity is more important than optimization . 6. The fragmentation of states is then a necessary (and logical ) tautological step to Singularity . I can see some interesting times for all . Why bother with incarnating on earth just to be bored ? 7. For starters , calculate the GINI of Heaven . 8.The economics of souls will stretch your mind . Christian free forgiveness of sins is the Quantitive Easing for souls . Isn’t Soul Economics fun ? Andre