Did we just get the two-minute warning ?
Tue, 10/06/2009 - 13:34
Did Russia get caught trying to smuggle S300 missiles to Iran?
Did Russia get caught providing expert assistance to Iran to build WMD?
If yes, does China care?
Is the entire Middle East at stake in the near term as the superpowers compete for their own versions of the energy pipeline grid to be built in the region?
In this competition did the Russians just cross too many “redlines” and push who they think is a “weak” president into a corner that even Obama can’t run from?
With a strong majority in both houses of Congress, can Obama count on their support for any option he chooses?
Will western Europe push the USA to stand up and fight so that Europe’s future energy distribution is not completely controlled by Russia?
Will the Russians offer to bail out on the Iranians (and China) if they are allowed to control the grid?
Will large holders of US dollar reserves threaten to dump them as leverage in these debates?
Would military destruction of Middle East oilfields hurt or help Russia? Would they want it to happen piecemeal to “carry’ the western economies so there is still a market for their oil?
Will China vote to be subservient to Russia for its energy, or prefer a supply controlled by the West?
Will the next Obama “stimulus” package be defense-related? And of a scale the other major players can’t approach? And does this return the competition to the asymmetric approach of terrorism?
Does all this imply that the financial markets are pricing in tails that are too small? Do we need to get long volatility, massively? Will the survivors in any asset class be those that own all the gamma?
Sorry, no answers. I’m heading to the black lagoon to look for some gold. How does one corner the market on printing presses?
Thu, 11/19/2009 - 17:58
#2
did Feb T-bills just go to a negative yield?
did el Baradei finally throw in the towel in trying to cover up WMD efforts by Iran, Syria, et al?
are massive amounts of oil being stockpiled on ships and elsewhere?
is the Obama administration currently working through appropriate Congressional committees for approval to access the Strategic Oil Reserve?
would a measured military response by Obama against Iran be justified on its own terms, facilitate a politically acceptable withdrawal from Afghanistan, and persuade Congress of the need for another economic stimulus program for 2010?
what are the polls saying about next year's elections anyway? doesn't Rahm think crises are to be taken advantage of for political purposes?
how much time is left on the clock? do we have anymore timeouts?
should I be getting long volatilty, gamma, and protection? will markets be manipulated against short positions? will public markets break down and have everything move OTC that isn't already there.
still looking for gold here in the lagoon, must be here somewhere.
Fri, 12/11/2009 - 05:45
#3
one minute left on the clock - one timeout remaining.
is US dollar rally signalling near term decision to go?
is selloff in crude an estimate that action against Iran will be limited, and successful? and that the Straits of Hormuz will be open after brief period of hostilities?
or do the large number of Iranian sites require protracted strikes over the course of weeks? would this collapse the Iranian government or rally the population to nationalism?
can Saudi Arabia and Pakistan survive the 'shock waves'?
did Obama and the Chinese come to an understanding? leaving Russia as the wildcard? what does Putin want?
are Israel's neighbors prepared to be the frontline for Iran in a real 'shoot-em-up'? or will Iran have to fight its own battles? and will they? or will they try to surrender to journalists and ask for asylum?
are the wealthy residents of the Middle East spending this winter at home? or have they decided to spend several months checking on their overseas interests?
as Obama's political popularity and domestic agenda fade, will he prioritize major foreign policy and national security issues to stabilize his administration and develop a record to run on for re-election?
still no answers, just lots of annoying questions.
India has moved tanks and cruise missles to their extensive border with China.
The Dalai Lama is visiting a monastery in a remote Indian state on Nov 8 (a state that the Chinese claim belongs to them)