http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/wp-content/plugins/uBillboard/%20%20liker.profile_URL%20%20 en Russian Currency Crisis and Defaults Could Create Contagion in West http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/russian-currency-crisis-and-defaults-could-create-contagion-west <p><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/russian-currency-crisis-defaults-create-contagion-west/"><strong>Russian Currency Crisis and Defaults Could Create Contagion in West</strong></a></p> <p>Russia’s currency market witnessed further huge volatility again today. The finance ministry said it would start selling foreign exchange which are primarily in dollars. This appeared to reduce selling pressure on the battered rouble.</p> <p><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/what-savers-and-depositors-need-to-do-to-protect-their-savings-and-deposits-from-bank-bail-ins"><img src="http://dzswc0o8s13dx.cloudfront.net/goldcore_bloomberg_chart2_17-12-14.png" /></a></p> <p>The fall of the rouble this year has been severe, with a 50 percent fall against the dollar and of course gold this year. The slide has been precipitous as in the past two days alone, it fell about 20 percent against the dollar and gold.</p> <p>On Monday, the ruble fell 10% against the dollar and gold followed by another crash of 11% on Tuesday, despite a massive rate hike.</p> <p>The heavy selling pressure this week, made the central bank sharply increase its key interest rate by an unexpected 6.5 percent or 650 basis points. The move did little to buttress the currency in the short term as speculators and traders continued to sell the rouble.</p> <p>Momentum is clearly down; computer-driven markets and increasing dominance of algorithmic or black box trading is exacerbating the rouble’s short term weakness. However, the sharp increase in interest rates and the fact that the fundamentals of the Russian economy remain reasonably sound and not much worse than many western economies, will support the rouble. It is likely to stabilise at these levels and recover in the coming months.</p> <p>It is also important to note that political and economic relations between Russia and China are very good at the moment and China would likely provide financial assistance – if indeed that is needed.</p> <p>The rouble rout is due in part to the collapse in oil and now very low oil prices. It may also be due to the effects of western sanctions. &nbsp;This is likely to rally the Russian people behind Putin and will not have the impact that western leaders hope it to have.</p> <p>The effects of the crisis are already being felt in western Europe and in the global financial system.</p> <p>Austria’s third largest bank, Raiffeisen Bank lost 10.3% of it’s share value on the news that the Russian central bank had raised rates a stunning 6.5% overnight on Monday.</p> <p>It is worth remembering that it was the bankruptcy in 1931 of Austrian bank Creditanstalt’s, founded by the Rothchild family, that resulted in a new global financial crisis and ultimately the bank failures and deep recessions of the Great Depression.</p> <p>In France, Societe General – a bank which is also exposed to the Russian economy to the tune of €25 billion – lost 6.3% of it’s share value. If the Russian crisis continues, and there is little to suggest it won’t – with the U.S. set to impose a new round of sanctions, the repercussions for the west and the global economy could be drastic.</p> <p>In the modern, interconnected, globalised world of today, there is a real sense that and a risk that western leaders are “cutting off our nose to spite our face.”</p> <p>The global banking system has a very limited capacity to absorb sizeable losses and the risk of contagion is as high now as in 2008. It may be the case that western banks and institutions have more to lose than Russia in the longer term.</p> <p><a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Finfo.goldcore.com%2Fwhat-savers-and-depositors-need-to-do-to-protect-their-savings-and-deposits-from-bank-bail-ins&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFQjCNEbffEXSK5a27nAmJ4nv8m1zBClmg"><img src="http://dzswc0o8s13dx.cloudfront.net/goldcore_bloomberg_chart3_17-12-14.png" /></a></p> <p>Russia is still energy and resource abundant with close economic ties to the industrialising East, Asia and China. It also has substantial gold reserves – some 10% of their sizeable foreign exchange reserves of $370 billion.</p> <p>It’s oil companies are reasonably well insulated from the crisis as the rouble value of their exports has soared.</p> <p>It should also be noted that what looked like a public display of weakness, that was Monday night’s rate hike, is most uncharacteristic of Russia, especially under Putin. In the murky goings on of geopolitics, it is wise to question every action and motivation. Some have suggested that the move could lead to severe losses in the interest rate market and the multi trillion interest rate swap market and this could be part of the reason for the move.</p> <p>Putin is well aware of Warren Buffett’s “financial weapons of mass destruction”.</p> <p>In the event of another banking crisis due to financial instability, market crashes and or western banks exposure to Russia, larger deposits will be confiscated by banks as “bail-in is now the rule,” to quote Irish finance minister Michael Noonan.</p> <p>The experience of Russian holders of gold since this crisis began is worthy of note as evinced by the chart above. Gold has acted as a very effective insurance policy against financial instability and currency instability for those ordinary Russians prudent enough to have allocated some of their savings to gold as a diversification.</p> <p>Must-read guide to and research on bail-ins can be read here:<br /><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/what-savers-and-depositors-need-to-do-to-protect-their-savings-and-deposits-from-bank-bail-ins">Guide: Protecting your Savings In The Coming Bail-In Era</a></p> <p><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/the-era-of-bondholder-bailouts-is-ending-and-that-of-depositor-bail-ins-is-coming">Research: From Bail-Outs to Bail-Ins: Risks and Ramifications – including World’s Safest Banks</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>MARKET UPDATE</strong><br />Today’s AM fix was USD 1,199.00, EUR 962.36 and GBP 763.16 per ounce.<br />Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,199.25, EUR 960.25 and GBP 763.95 per ounce.</p> <p>Spot gold climbed $4.60 or 0.39% to $1,196.30 per ounce yesterday and silver fell $0.40 or 2.48% to $15.74 per ounce.<br /><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/what-savers-and-depositors-need-to-do-to-protect-their-savings-and-deposits-from-bank-bail-ins"><img src="http://dzswc0o8s13dx.cloudfront.net/goldcore_bloomberg_chart1_17-12-14.png" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-singapore">Gold in Singapore</a>&nbsp;was flat again overnight with gold hovering just below $1,200 per ounce before&nbsp;slight gains in London saw gold touch the $1,200/oz level. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $1,199.66 an ounce by late morning in London. &nbsp;A volatile session yesterday, saw a high above $1,221 then a drop to a one-week low of $1,188.41, before finishing stronger.</p> <p>The electronic gold market or futures gold market continues to have all the hallmarks of a managed market and gold seems tethered to the $1,200/oz level for now despite the very bullish geo-political backdrop and robust global demand.</p> <p>There is a lot of market chatter about Russia selling gold – mostly by non gold experts and people who are not renowned for analysis of the gold market. The chatter is just that chatter as Russia is likely to keep accumulating gold rather than sell it.</p> <p>Russia is unlikely to sell gold in any meaningful way as long as Putin remains at the helm. Indeed, while a wily Putin may allow an announcement regarding gold sales and official statistics may show a reduction in reserves, Putin may adopt the Chinese gold policy and not be so transparent regarding the Russian gold reserve accumulation and reserves in general.</p> <p>Traders await the outcome of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee’s last policy meeting of the year, where traders will look for a clue as to when they may raise interest rates.</p> <p>The Fed’s statement is at 1900 GMT and analysts are looking for the phrase “considerable time” to be removed as a signal that the Fed may take action in 2015 to hike rates. As ever it is important to watch what the Fed does rather than what they signal they might do.</p> <p>SPDR Gold Holdings, the world’s largest&nbsp;<a href="http://info.goldcore.com/how-to-store-gold-bullion-the-seven-key-must-haves-in-2014">gold ETF</a>, saw a second consecutive daily outflow on Tuesday, of 1.8 tonnes, after they posted their largest weekly rise last week since July.</p> <p>In other precious metals, silver climbed 1% to $15.92 an ounce and platinum up 0.7% at $1,197.52 an ounce. Palladium was up 0.8% at $785.31 an ounce.</p> <p><strong>Get Breaking News and Updates On Gold&nbsp;<a href="http://info.goldcore.com/goldcore_email_subscription_preferences">Here</a></strong></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/russian-currency-crisis-and-defaults-could-create-contagion-west#comments Bank Failures Black Box Trading China France Global Economy Great Depression Precious Metals Raiffeisen Volatility Wed, 17 Dec 2014 20:03:27 +0000 GoldCore 499230 at http://www.zerohedge.com Algos Spooked After Yellen Says "Almost All Participants" See 2015 Rate Hike http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/algos-spooked-after-yellen-says-almost-all-participants-see-2015-rate-hike <p>It was all going well for Janet - stocks were up, crude was down - and then she said...</p> <ul> <li><strong>YELLEN SAYS ALMOST ALL PARTICIPANTS SEE RATE INCREASE IN 2015</strong></li> </ul> <p>Sending <strong>stocks back below pre-FOMC levels</strong> and sparking a tumble in Gold, a surge in The Dollar, and slip higher in yields.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_20151.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_20151_0.jpg" width="600" height="598" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>and the reaction across assets</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_20152.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_20152_0.jpg" width="600" height="980" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="763" height="760" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20141217_20151.jpg?1418846051" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/algos-spooked-after-yellen-says-almost-all-participants-see-2015-rate-hike#comments Crude Wed, 17 Dec 2014 19:54:28 +0000 Tyler Durden 499242 at http://www.zerohedge.com Fed Confusion Sparks Crude Chaos; Stocks, Bonds, Bullion Whiplash http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/fed-confusion-sparks-crude-chaos-stocks-bonds-bullion-whiplash <p><strong>Stocks are up and crude oil is down</strong> following The Fed's confusing statement. Treasury yields whiplashed lower then higher and are holding slightly lower. Gold did the same - holding slightly above pre-FOMC levels.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Bonds up, Stocks up, Gold up, Crude down...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_crude.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_crude_0.jpg" width="600" height="315" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Crude Oil has given back all its spike gains...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_crude2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_crude2_0.jpg" width="600" height="570" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Be careful...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_crude1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_crude1_0.jpg" width="600" height="321" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Charts: Bloomberg</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="934" height="499" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20141217_crude1.jpg?1418844930" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/fed-confusion-sparks-crude-chaos-stocks-bonds-bullion-whiplash#comments Crude Crude Oil Wed, 17 Dec 2014 19:32:25 +0000 Tyler Durden 499241 at http://www.zerohedge.com Janet Yellen's Last (Considerably Confused) FOMC Press Conference Of 2014 - Live Webcast http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/janet-yellens-last-considerably-confused-fomc-press-conference-2014-live-webcast <p>Having added further confusion to the markets by keeping "considerable" and adding "patient", suffered 3 dissents (1 dove, 2 hawks), and explaining that the energy price drop is "transitory", we suspect Fed Chair Janet Yellen will have some 'splainin' to do during today's press conference. <strong>Is "patient" longer than "considerable time" and just what (Dow Jones Industrial Average) data is the Fed dependent on now? </strong></p> <p><em>Live Feed:</em></p> <p><iframe src="http://www.ustream.tv/embed/4944768?v=3&amp;wmode=direct" width="600" height="372" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"> </iframe><br /> <br /><a href="http://www.ustream.tv" target="_blank" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 20px; font-weight: normal; text-align: left;">Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream</a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="361" height="294" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20141216_yell_0.jpg?1418843352" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/janet-yellens-last-considerably-confused-fomc-press-conference-2014-live-webcast#comments Dow Jones Industrial Average Janet Yellen Wed, 17 Dec 2014 19:26:53 +0000 Tyler Durden 499240 at http://www.zerohedge.com The December "Dots"... Drop http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/december-dots-drop <p>Presenting the quarterly change of the Fed's "dot plot", showing where the Fed thinks the Fed Funds rate will be at the end of 2016. The Fed is so hawkish about the upcoming rate hikes, that since September, <strong>when the median dot was at at 2.875%, the dots, "surprisingly", have declined across the board and now have a median of 2.50%. </strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/12/December%20DOTS..jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/12/December%20DOTS._0.jpg" width="600" height="403" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="744" height="500" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/December%20DOTS..jpg?1418844115" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/december-dots-drop#comments Wed, 17 Dec 2014 19:24:55 +0000 Tyler Durden 499239 at http://www.zerohedge.com Complexity Of Fed Message Resumes Rising: FOMC Words Increase From 707 To 734 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/complexity-fed-message-resumes-rising-fomc-words-increase-707-734 <p>Just when you thought it was safe to assume The Fed had any kind of handle on things, they ramp up the confusion level and generate more words than last month to explain their machinations. Though <strong>well below the peak confusion levels</strong> of September, we hope the trend is not rising again...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/number%20of%20words%20in%20FOMC%20statement.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/number%20of%20words%20in%20FOMC%20statement_0.jpg" width="600" height="370" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="998" height="616" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/number%20of%20words%20in%20FOMC%20statement.jpg?1418843683" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/complexity-fed-message-resumes-rising-fomc-words-increase-707-734#comments Wed, 17 Dec 2014 19:15:01 +0000 Tyler Durden 499238 at http://www.zerohedge.com No More "Considerable Time" - Meet The New, "Patient" Fed http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/no-more-considerable-time-meet-new-patient-fed <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/goldmans-qa-todays-fomc-statement">With expectations that the FOMC would drop "considerable time," ignore foreign market instability, and shrug off HY credit's demise (as they had previously said it was a bubble)</a>, the members did not let anyone down...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*FOMC SAYS IT CAN BE 'PATIENT' IN APPROACH TO RAISING RATES</strong></li> <li><strong>*FOMC DECLINES TO MENTION RECENT GLOBAL MARKET INSTABILITY</strong></li> <li><strong>*FOMC SAYS PATIENT APPROACH 'CONSISTENT WITH OCT. STATEMENT'</strong></li> <li><strong>*FISHER, PLOSSER, KOCHERLAKOTA DISSENT IN FOMC DECISION</strong></li> </ul> <p>For the 3rd FOMC meeting in a row, equity markets have surged (and decoupled from bonds); we will soon see if history repeats a third time.</p> <p><strong>Pre-FOMC:</strong> S&amp;P Futs: 1988.00, 10Y 2010%, Gold $1195, WTI $57.50</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>What happened the last 2 times...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_FOMC.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_FOMC_0.jpg" width="600" height="1071" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Fed goes on to say...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*FOMC SAYS JOB MARKET UNDERUTILIZATION `CONTINUES TO DIMINISH'</strong></li> <li><strong>*FOMC SAYS LABOR MARKET `IMPROVED FURTHER'</strong></li> <li><strong>*FOMC SEES INFLATION RISING TO TARGET AS LOW OIL IMPACT FADES</strong></li> <li><strong>*FED SEES JOBLESS RATE AT FULL EMPLOYMENT BY LATE-2015</strong></li> <li><strong>*FED SEES 2015 GDP GROWTH OF 2.6%-3%, UNCH VS SEPT. EST</strong></li> <li><strong>*FED SEES INFLATION AS LOW AS 1% IN 2015 VS 1.6% IN SEPT. EST.</strong></li> <li><strong>*FED SEES 2015 JOBLESS RATE 5.2%-5.3% VS 5.4%-5.6% IN SEPT. EST</strong></li> <li><strong>*FED MEDIAN FED FUNDS RATE 2.5% END-2016 VS 2.875% SEPT. EST.</strong></li> </ul> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><em>And the redline from October:</em></p> <p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/250405685/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-9sCyV8DsGxLGgL05ltdK&amp;show_recommendations=true" data-auto-height="false" data-aspect-ratio="0.7729220222793488" scrolling="no" id="doc_2624" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/no-more-considerable-time-meet-new-patient-fed#comments Equity Markets Fisher Wed, 17 Dec 2014 19:02:59 +0000 Tyler Durden 499237 at http://www.zerohedge.com Surprise... Everyone Was Wrong About The End Of QE http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/surprise-everyone-was-wrong-about-end-qe <p><a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/daily-x-change/2535-surprise-everyone-was-wrong-about-the-end-of-qe.html"><em>Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management</em></a>,</p> <div class="highslide-gallery"> <p>Since the beginning of this year, Wall Street economists and analysts have been consistently prognosticating that following the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest bond buying campaign, economic growth would gather steam and interest rates would begin to rise. This has consistently been the wrong call as I discussed in April of this year in <a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/interest-rates-meet-bob-farrell-rule9.html">&quot;Interest Rate Predictions Meet Bob Farrell&#39;s Rule #9:&quot;</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;An interesting article hit my inbox this morning from WSJ MarketWatch which was titled<span style="color: #0000ff;"><a href="http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/22/100-of-economists-think-yields-will-rise-within-six-months/"><span style="color: #0000ff;"> &#39;100% Of Economists Think Yields Will Rise Within 6 Months&#39;</span> </a> </span> From the article:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&#39;Economists are unwavering in their assessment of where yields are headed in the next half year.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Jim Bianco, of Bianco Research, points out in a market comment Tuesday that a <strong>survey of 67 economists this month shows every single one</strong> of them expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise <strong>in the next six-months.</strong>&#39;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This is very striking from the standpoint that a separate poll of economists showed that there were none, zero, nada expecting an economic contraction either.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>With literally 100% of all surveyed economists bullish on the economy, it suggests that there is nothing but clear sailing ahead for investors.</strong> Of course, it is also important to remember that it was this<strong> same group of <em>&quot;economists&quot;</em> that have been predicting the return of economic growth and higher interest rates for the last three years</strong>, as well. As we enter into the sixth year of the current economic expansion the unanimous &#39;bullish bias&#39; is indeed fascinating.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p>Almost 18-months ago, after interest rates initially spiked from historic lows, I began writing then that <a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/reiterating-bond-buy-35-years-of-history-confirms.html">the bond <em>&quot;bull&quot;</em> market was not yet over </a>despite the litany of articles and punditry claiming otherwise. Furthermore, <strong>I stated that interest rates would be lower in the future as the three primary ingredients needed for higher rates were missing: rising inflation, increased wage growth and economic acceleration.</strong></p> <p>So, as we pass the 6-month mark for those predictions, let&#39;s take a look at where things stand now that the Federal Reserve&#39;s latest QE campaign has come to an end.</p> <p><u><strong>Interest Rates</strong></u></p> <p>As I discussed earlier this week on Fox Business News, the call for lower interest rates has continued to confound and frustrate the majority of mainstream analysts.</p> <p><script type="text/javascript" src="http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/embed.js?id=3943469685001&w=466&h=263"></script></p><p><noscript>Watch the latest video at <a href="http://video.foxbusiness.com">video.foxbusiness.com</a></noscript></p> <p>Will long-term interest rates eventually rise? Yes. However, as stated above, the ingredients necessary for a sustained rise in borrowing costs are not currently embedded within the economy. Furthermore, <a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/daily-x-change/daily-x-change/2526-interest-rates-have-nowhere-to-go-but-up.html">as I wrote previously</a>, the current level of interest rates, given global economic conditions, is not unusual. To wit:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Since then rates have continued to be in a steady decline <strong>as real economic strength has remained close to 2% annually, deflationary pressures have risen and monetary velocity has fallen</strong>. The chart below is a history of long-term interest rates going back to 1857. The dashed black line is the median interest rate during the entire period.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/Interest-Rate-LongTerm-30yr-120914-2.PNG" target="_blank" title="Interest-Rate-LongTerm-30yr-120914-2"><img alt="Interest-Rate-LongTerm-30yr-120914-2" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/Interest-Rate-LongTerm-30yr-120914-2.PNG" style="width: 600px; height: 350px;" /></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Interest rates are a function of strong, organic, economic growth that leads to a rising demand for capital over time. There have been two previous periods in history that have had the necessary ingredients to support rising interest rates.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Currently, the U.S. is no longer the manufacturing powerhouse it once was and globalization has sent jobs to the cheapest sources of labor.</strong> Technological advances continue to reduce the need for human labor and suppress wages as productivity increases.&nbsp;<strong><a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2516">As discussed recently,</a> this is a structural problem that continues to drag on economic growth as nearly 1/4th of the American population is now dependent on some form of governmental assistance.&quot;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Importantly, since 2009, interest rates <strong>have only risen during the Federal Reserve&#39;s QE campaigns</strong> as money was forced out of <em>&quot;safe haven&quot;</em> investments like bonds into <em>&quot;risk&quot;</em> assets in the equity markets. This, of course, was what was intended by the Federal Reserve under the assumption that inflating asset prices would lead to increased consumer confidence levels and higher rates of consumption.</p> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/QE-InterestRates-SP500-121714.PNG" target="_blank" title="QE-InterestRates-SP500-121714"><img alt="QE-InterestRates-SP500-121714" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/QE-InterestRates-SP500-121714.PNG" style="height: 339px; width: 600px;" /></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>(<strong>Note:</strong> As shown above, interest rates peaked during the latest QE program just as the Federal Reserve announced their first step in reducing bond purchases. Equities, at least for the moment, have appeared to peak as the last of the liquidity support was extracted from the financial markets.)</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>IF </strong>the Federal Reserve remains flat on monetary interventions, <strong>the current trend of interest rates suggests a retest of 2012 lows</strong> as economic growth slows domestically due to global deflationary pressures.</p> <p><u><strong>The Dollar &amp; Oil</strong></u></p> <p>Like interest rates, the dollar has also been driven by the Fed&#39;s monetary injections. Just as with interest rates, the dollar is a <em>&quot;safe haven&quot;</em> investment during times of global weakness and deflationary pressures. As shown below, the dollar has rallied strongly when the Federal Reserve has extracted support from the financial markets which has made &quot;risk&quot; based investments much less attractive.</p> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/QE-Dollar-121714.PNG" target="_blank" title="QE-Dollar-121714"><img alt="QE-Dollar-121714" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/QE-Dollar-121714.PNG" style="height: 338px; width: 600px;" /></a></p> <p>Since oil is traded in US dollars globally, it is also not surprising to see the effect of the Fed&#39;s interventions applied to oil prices.</p> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/QE-OilPrices-121714.PNG" target="_blank" title="QE-OilPrices-121714"><img alt="QE-OilPrices-121714" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2014/QE-OilPrices-121714.PNG" style="height: 338px; width: 601px;" /></a></p> <p>As shown, oil prices rose sharply during QE programs as the push for <em>&quot;risk&quot;</em> drove money out of <em>&quot;safe haven</em>&quot; investments of the dollar and bonds and into oil contracts. As monetary interventions were extracted, or as during Operation Twist where the Federal Reserve was not actively monetizing debt, oil prices trended lower. The latest plunge in oil prices coincided with the end of the Fed&#39;s latest QE program which, as expected, sent oil prices and interest rates lower and the dollar higher.</p> <p><u><strong>Another Year Of Bond Bear Disappointment</strong></u></p> <p>The recent decline in interest rates should really not be a surprise as there is little evidence that current rates of economic growth are set to increase markedly anytime soon. Consumers are still heavily levered; wage growth remains anemic, and business owners are still operating on an <em>&quot;as needed basis.&quot; </em>This <em>&quot;economic reality&quot;</em> continues to constrain the ability of the economy to grow organically at strong enough rates to sustain higher interest rates.</p> <p>This is a point that seems to be lost on most economists who forget that the Federal Reserve has been pumping in trillions of dollars of liquidity into the economy <strong>to pull forward future consumption.</strong> With the Fed now extracting that support, it is very likely that economic weakness will resurface since the <em>&quot;engine of growth&quot;</em> was never repaired.</p> <p>As I stated at the start of this post, while interest rates are indeed low currently, it is not the first time that we have witnessed such levels. Furthermore, interest rates can remain low for a very long time when there is a lack of sufficient economic catalysts to sustain the drag imposed by higher borrowing costs.</p> <p><strong>For now, as a contrarian investor, literally <em>&quot;everyone&quot;</em> remains piled onto the same side&nbsp;of the interest rate argument even after 18-months of being wrong. That alone is enough to keep me bullish on bonds and other interest-sensitive sectors of the economy for now.</strong></p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="574" height="322" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20141217_STA.jpg?1418841281" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/surprise-everyone-was-wrong-about-end-qe#comments Bond Borrowing Costs Consumer Confidence Equity Markets Federal Reserve Fox Business Jim Bianco NADA None Reality Wed, 17 Dec 2014 18:46:49 +0000 Tyler Durden 499236 at http://www.zerohedge.com New York Governor Cuomo Does Saudi Bidding, Bans Fracking In NY State http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/new-york-governor-cuomo-does-saudi-bidding-bans-fracking-ny-state <p>Having missed the entire shale boom, and with heavily-indebted shale companies now scrambling to boost liquidity or else face bankruptcy if crude prices remain at current levels, moments ago - in the latest example of blatant populist pandering -&nbsp; New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday his administration would prohibit hydraulic fracturing statewide, citing health concerns and calling the economic benefits to drilling there limited.&nbsp; <strong>“I cannot support high-volume hydraulic fracturing in the great state of New York,” </strong>acting health commissioner Howard Zucker said, adding that <strong>he wouldn’t allow his own children to live near a fracking site</strong>. He said the “cumulative concerns” about fracking “give me reason to pause.”</p> <p>It <em>only </em>took him 6 years to get to the bottom of said "concerns"? Or perhaps a phone call and an envelope from one or more Saudi princes helped accelerate the decision.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/12/frack%20NY.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/12/frack%20NY_0.jpg" width="500" height="333" /></a></p> <p>While fracking wasn't explicitly illegal before, it is now: the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation will issue a legally-binding recommendation prohibiting fracking as a result of Mr. Zucker’s recommendation. </p> <p>As <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-gov-andrew-cuomos-administration-moves-to-ban-fracking-1418839033?mod=djemalertMARKET">reported by the WSJ</a>, New York’s environment commissioner, Joe Martens, said that his agency’s concerns about the impact of fracking would so limit the area that could be drilled in the 12 million acre Marcellus Shale that the economic benefits of drilling there would be limited.</p> <p>“The economic benefits [of fracking] are clearly far lower than originally forecast,” Mr. Martens said.</p> <p>Mr. Cuomo himself said the decision was made by his commissioners, not him. “I don’t think I even have a role here,” he said at a news conference.</p> <p>The biggest winner: Saudi Arabia of course, which would want nothing more than for North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Texas to follow in New York's footsteps. And one way or another, whether with bribes or by forcing the price of oil to unviable lows, it will get it.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1280" height="853" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/frack%20NY.jpg?1418840469" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/new-york-governor-cuomo-does-saudi-bidding-bans-fracking-ny-state#comments Andrew Cuomo Crude New York State Saudi Arabia Wed, 17 Dec 2014 18:22:29 +0000 Tyler Durden 499235 at http://www.zerohedge.com Why It's So Hard Being A Fed Decision-Maker http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/why-its-so-hard-being-fed-decision-maker <p><em>"consistency"</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_fed.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/12/20141217_fed_0.jpg" width="600" height="450" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://omidmalekan.com/hard-fed-decision-maker/"><em>Source: Omid Malekan</em></a></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/why-its-so-hard-being-fed-decision-maker#comments Wed, 17 Dec 2014 18:10:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 499234 at http://www.zerohedge.com