http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/wp-content/plugins/uBillboard/%20%20liker.profile_URL%20%20 en Pentagon’s New “Law of War” Manual “Reduces Us to the Level of Nazis” http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/pentagon%E2%80%99s-new-%E2%80%9Claw-war%E2%80%9D-manual-%E2%80%9Creduces-us-level-nazis%E2%80%9D <p>The Pentagon&rsquo;s new Law of War Manual &ndash; a <a href="http://www.dod.mil/dodgc/images/law_war_manual15.pdf" target="_blank" title="1,200-plus page document">1,200-plus page document</a> issued in June by the Defense Department&rsquo;s Office of the General Counsel &ndash; is barbaric.</p> <p>The Manual is so bad that one of the leading experts on the law of war (Dr. Francis Boyle) &ndash; who wrote the Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989, the American implementing legislation for the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention, served on the Board of Directors of Amnesty International, and teaches international law at the University of Illinois, Champaign &ndash; says :</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>This Law of War Manual reduces us to the level of Nazis. There&rsquo;s no other word for it.</p> </blockquote> <p>Boyle also says the Manual:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Reads like it was written by Hitler&rsquo;s Ministry of War.</p> </blockquote> <p>Why is the Manual so bad?</p> <h3 style="color: #000099;">Manual Authorizes Slaughter of Innocent Civilians</h3> <p>Because &ndash; according to Boyle &ndash; the Manual allows massacres of <em>civilian populations</em>. The most comprehensive previous such document &ndash; the 1956 Pentagon field manual &ndash; assumed that any deliberate targeting of civilians was illegal and a war crime.</p> <h3 style="color: #000099;">Reporters Can Be Assassinated</h3> <p>And the Manual treats allows reporters to be treated as <a href="http://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2015/08/26/dod-manual-allows-journalists-to-be-held-as-belligerents" target="_blank" title="“unprivileged combatants”">&ldquo;unprivileged combatants&rdquo;</a>, who can be assassinated.</p> <p>Boyle points out that this retroactively legalizes assassination of reporters, such as Al Jazeera reporters during Iraq war. Boyle notes that even a SPY would be treated better, and given a trial.</p> <p>(As we&rsquo;ve previously noted, the U.S. government <a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/09/in-america-journalists-are-considered-terrorists.html" title="treats real reporters as terrorists">treats real reporters as <em>terrorists</em></a>. Because the core things which reporters do <a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/09/take-the-test-to-see-if-you-might-be-considered-a-potential-terrorist-by-government-officials.html" title="could be considered terrorism">could be considered terrorism</a>, in modern America, journalists are sometimes targeted under <a href="http://verdict.justia.com/2012/07/02/journalists-protesters-and-other-terrorist-threats" target="_blank" title="counter-terrorism laws">counter-terrorism laws</a>.)</p> <h3 style="color: #000099;">Manual Authorizes Barbarous War Crimes</h3> <p>Boyle also says the Manual <a href="http://www.popsci.com/new-pentagon-war-law-manual-totally-cool-drones" target="_blank" title="authorizes">authorizes</a> the following barbarous war crimes:</p> <p>(1) <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Warfare with nuclear weapons</span>. Specifically, the manual states:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>There is no general prohibition in treaty or customary international law on the use of nuclear weapons.</p> </blockquote> <p>This flies in the face of the United Nations Charter, which &ndash; as noted by the World Court in its Advisory Opinion on the Legality of the Threat or Use of Nuclear Weapons &ndash; makes even <em>threatening</em> to use nuclear weapons a war crime.</p> <p>This is also particularly worrisome because &ndash; as documented in<br /><em><a href="https://store.globalresearch.ca/store/towards-a-world-war-iii-scenario-the-dangers-of-nuclear-war/" target="_blank" title="Towards a World War III Scenario">Towards a World War III Scenario</a></em>, by Michel Chossudovsky &ndash;&nbsp; the U.S. is so enamored with nuclear weapons that it has authorized low-level field commanders to use them in the heat of battle in their sole discretion &hellip; without any approval from civilian leaders.</p> <p>(2) <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Depleted uranium</span>. The <a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/10/u-s-sends-planes-armed-depleted-uranium-middle-east.html" title="use">use</a> of <a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/01/pentagon-silent-current-use-du-iraq.html" title="depleted uranium">depleted uranium</a> can cause cancer and birth defects for decades (see <a href="http://www.afrri.usuhs.mil/www/outreach/pdf/mcclain_NATO_2005.pdf" target="_blank" title="this">this</a>, <a href="http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1018.7.pdf" target="_blank" title="this">this</a>, <a href="http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0812-06.htm" target="_blank" title="this">this</a>, <a href="http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C04E3DA103FF93AA15752C0A9679C8B63" target="_blank" title="this">this</a>, <a href="http://www.commondreams.org/headlines04/0403-05.htm" target="_blank" title="this">this</a> and <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2003/apr/25/internationaleducationnews.armstrade" target="_blank" title="this">this</a>).</p> <p>(3) <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Landmines</span>.</p> <p>(4) <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Cluster bombs</span>.</p> <p>(5) <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Napalm</span>, which is banned under Protocol III of the 1980 UN Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons.</p> <p>(6) <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Expanding hollow-point bullets</span>, banned under the 1868 St. Petersburg declaration.</p> <p>(7) <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Herbicides</span>, like Agent Orange in Vietnam.</p> <h3 style="color: #000099;">The Good News</h3> <p>The good news &ndash; according to Dr. Boyle &ndash; is that both Congress and the president have power to revoke the Manual.</p> <p>So &ndash; if we stand up and raise holy hell &ndash; we might be able to walk back from the fascist path we&rsquo;re heading down.&nbsp; And we can prove that we&rsquo;re not the rogue nation that the <a href="http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/08/americans-dont-know-that-the-rest-of-the-world-views-u-s-as-biggest-danger-rogue-state.html" title="rest of the world thinks">rest of the world thinks</a> we are.</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/pentagon%E2%80%99s-new-%E2%80%9Claw-war%E2%80%9D-manual-%E2%80%9Creduces-us-level-nazis%E2%80%9D#comments Agent Orange Illinois Iraq SPY Uranium Fri, 28 Aug 2015 22:10:07 +0000 George Washington 512561 at http://www.zerohedge.com These Four Currency Pegs Are Most Likely To Fall http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/these-four-currency-pegs-are-most-likely-fall <p>Ever since Kazakhstan <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-20/currency-wars-continue-kazakh-tenge-crashes-25-after-peg-abandoned">stormed onto the radar screens</a> of a whole host of mainstream financial market commentators who might not have previously known that there was a place called Kazakhstan, everyone wants to know which currency peg will fall next.&nbsp;</p> <p>Over the past week, we’ve taken a look at <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-24/something-very-wrong-saudi-arabia">the riyal</a>, the <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-24/next-dollar-peg-fall">dirham</a>, and of course, the <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-25/dollar-depeg-du-jour-32-year-old-hong-kong-fx-regime-crosshairs">Hong Kong dollar</a>. <strong>Below, find a new chart <a href="http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/">from Bloomberg</a> which attempts to show which pegs are most vulnerable</strong> based on the following six statistics:&nbsp;1) Oil rents as a percent of GDP; 2) the current account balance as a percent of GDP; 3) external debt as a percent of GNI; 4) total reserves in terms of months of imports; 5) total reserves as a percent of external debt; 6) the change in the real effective exchange from 2010 to 2014.&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/PegsLikelyToFall.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/PegsLikelyToFall_0.png" width="600" height="290" /></a></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/these-four-currency-pegs-are-most-likely-fall#comments Currency Peg Hong Kong Kazakhstan Fri, 28 Aug 2015 22:00:58 +0000 Tyler Durden 512559 at http://www.zerohedge.com Nassim Taleb's Fund Made $1 Billion On Monday; This Is How The Other "Hedge" Funds Did http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/nassim-talebs-fund-made-1-billion-monday-how-other-hedge-funds-did <p>You can't say Nassim Taleb didn't warn you: the outspoken academic-philosopher, best known for his prediction that six sigma "fat tail", or black swan, events happen much more frequently than they should statistically (perhaps a main reason why there is no longer a market but a centrally-planned cesspool of academic intervention) just had a black swan land smack in the middle of the Universa hedge fund founded by ardent Ron Paul supporter Mark Spitznagel, and affiliated with Nassim Taleb. </p> <p>The result: a $1 billion payday, translating into a 20% YTD return, in a week when the VIX exploded from the teens to over 50, and which most other hedge funds would love to forget. </p> <p>The <a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/nassim-talebs-black-swan-fund-made-1-billion-this-week-1440793953">WSJ reports</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Universa Investments LP gained roughly 20% on Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter, a day when the market collapsed more than 1,000 points in its largest ever intraday point decline. <strong>Universa’s profits—some realized and some on paper—amounted to more than $1 billion in the past week, largely on Monday, as its returns for the year climbed to roughly 20% through earlier this week.</strong> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“This is just the beginning,” said Universa founder Mark Spitznagel, a longtime collaborator with Mr. Taleb, who advises Universa, lectures at New York University and is known for his pessimistic forecasts about the global economy. Mr. Spitznagel himself has spent the last several years warning of a coming correction, one he viewed as inevitable given accommodative policies by central banks around the world. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“<strong>The markets are overvalued to the tune of 50% and I’ve been saying that for some time</strong>,” said Mr. Spitznagel. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Universa gained renown for its outsize gains in 2008, racking up more than 100% profits for many of its clients. <strong>In 2011, it notched around 10% to 30% gains for clients. During the years in between it posted steady, small losses.</strong></p> <p>The firm focuses on finding cheap, shorter-dated options on the S&amp;P 500 and other instruments it expects to rise in value amid a notable downturn. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>During the past week, the value of such options that Universa bought over the past one to two months jumped, said people familiar with the matter. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Miami-based Universa and some other “black swan” hedge funds that seek to reap big rewards from sharp market downturns have emerged as winners amid the world-wide volatility of the past week, say their investors, racking up double digit gains in roughly the past week.</p> </blockquote> <p>Incidentally, this is precisely what a "<em>hedge" </em>fund <strong>should </strong>do: protect against massive, "fat tail" days like this Monday; instead they merely ride the beta train with the most leverage possible, hoping that the Fed will prevent any events that actually need hedging, and blow up in a fiery crash any time the market tumbles. Needless to say this makes most of them utterly useless, especially since one can just buy the SPY for almost nothing, and avoid paying the hefty 2 and 20 (or 3 and 45) fee, which until recently was merely there to fund trading based on inside information aka "expert networks" and "idea dinner" thesis clustering. </p> <p>And speaking of non-hedging "hedge" funds, the table below lays out the performance of some of the most prominent names through either Friday of last week, or as of mid-week. You will notice three things: i) a lot of minus signs for entities that supposedly "hedge" market drops, ii) Bill Ackman's Pershing Square, which until last month was among the best performers, was - as of Wednesday - down for the year, and iii) Ray Dalio's "risk parity" quickly has become "risk impairty" in an environment where both stocks were sold by the boatload, at the same time that China was dumping US treasurys - a scenario no "risk parity" fund is prepared for.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/HFs%20Aug.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/HFs%20Aug_0.jpg" width="600" height="715" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="400" height="400" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/nassim%20taleb.jpeg?1440797371" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/nassim-talebs-fund-made-1-billion-monday-how-other-hedge-funds-did#comments Black Swan Central Banks China Expert Networks Global Economy Mark Spitznagel Nassim Taleb Pershing Square Ron Paul SPY Universa Investments Volatility Fri, 28 Aug 2015 21:33:12 +0000 Tyler Durden 512556 at http://www.zerohedge.com "No Recovery For You!" Brazil Officially Enters Recession, Goldman Calls Numbers "Disquieting" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/no-recovery-you-brazil-officially-enters-recession-goldman-calls-numbers-disquieting <p>Well, you know what they say: when it rains it pours, especially when you’re the <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-06/emerging-market-mayhem-gross-warns-debacle-currencies-bonds-collapse">poster child</a> for an epic emerging market unwind and you’re suffering through the worst stagflation in over a decade while <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-30/brazils-economy-slides-depression-and-now-olympians-will-be-swimming-feces">trying to clean up the feces</a> ahead of the summer Olympics.. or something.&nbsp;</p> <p>Make no mistake, Brazil is in a tough spot. </p> <p>Here’s a list of problems: 1) collapsing commodity prices, 2) the worst inflation-growth outcome in over a decade, 3) deficits on both the fiscal and current accounts, 4) street protests calling for the President to be sacked, 5) a plunging currency, 6) allegations of rampant government corruption. And we could go on.&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BrazilFans_0.png" width="500" height="274" /></p> <p>On Friday, the latest quarterly GDP print shows the country sliding into recession (of course these determinations are always backward looking and just about every indicator one cares to observe seems to show that the economy is closer to depression than it is to the early stages of recession) as output contracted 1.9% in Q2. Here's the summary from Barclays:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><em><strong>Q2 15 real GDP in Brazil surprised on the downside, contracting -1.9% q/q sa and compatible with a y/y print of -2.6%.</strong> This follows a downwardly revised -0.7% q/q sa Q1 real GDP print (previous: -0.2%), and also a flat real GDP print in Q4 14 (previous: 0.3% q/q sa). As a matter of fact, the past three quarters were revised to the downside, which now implies a strong negative carry-over for this year: if real GDP is flat in H2 15, the annual growth would be -2.3%.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>Relative to our forecast, household consumption, fixed-assets investments and imports all surprised on the downside.</strong> These components reflect the adverse conditions for domestic demand, as a reflection of higher inflation, interest rates, fall in income and weaker currency.&nbsp;</em></p> </blockquote> <p>And from Goldman:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><em>The forecasted deeper 2015 recession will contaminate the 2016 growth outlook. <strong>Given the worse-than-expected 2Q figure and the downward revision to 1Q sequential growth, our profile for 2H2015 growth points now to a 2.6% contraction of real GDP in 2015 (down from our previous -2.1% forecast) and worsens the statistical carry-over for growth in 2016 to -0.8%</strong>. That is, were the economy to stay flat throughout 2016 at the expected 4Q2015 level, real GDP would contract by 0.8% in 2016. Hence, we are now forecasting real GDP to contract 0.4% in 2016 (down from the previous -0.25% forecast). This is consistent with average quarterly real GDP growth of 0.10%-0.20%, a path that is still subject to obvious downside risks given the prevailing high level of macro and political uncertainty and recognized negative skew in the distribution of domestic and external risks.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BrazilQ2GDP_0.png" width="600" height="202" /><br /></em></p> </blockquote> <p>The latest on the political front is that President Dilma Rousseff has 15 days to explain to the the Federal Accounts Court why everyone seems to think that she intentionally delayed nearly $12 billion in social payments last year in an effort to make the books look better than they actually were. <strong style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">And while we won’t endeavor to weigh in one way or another on that issue, what we would say is that if someone in Brazil is doctoring <em>this year’s</em> books, they aren’t doing a very good job because things just seem to keep going from bad to worse.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>Case in point, on Friday, Brazil said its primary budget deficit was R10 billion in July, far wider than expected. The takeaway: "<em>no 2015 primary surplus for you!</em>"</p> <p>Here’s Goldman with the breakdown:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><em><strong>The consolidated public sector posted a worse than expected R$10.0bn deficit in July, </strong>driven by the weak performance of both the central and regional governments. The central government posted a R$6.0bn deficit in July and the states and municipalities a larger than expected R$3.2bn deficit. Finally, the state-owned enterprises added another R$810mn to the overall deficit.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>On a 12-month trailing basis the consolidated public sector recorded a 0.9% of GDP primary deficit in July, worse than the 0.6% of GDP deficit recorded in December and, therefore, increasingly distant from the new unimpressive +0.15% of GDP surplus target. <strong>Hence, it is increasingly likely that we may observe a second consecutive year of primary fiscal deficits.</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>The overall public sector fiscal deficit (primary surplus minus interest payments) widened to a very large 8.81% of GDP,</strong> from 6.2% of GDP in the 12 months through December 2014. The net interest bill is running at 7.92% of GDP in the 12 months through July.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Gross general government debt worsened to 64.6% of GDP, up from 58.9% of GDP at end 2014 and 53.3% of GDP in 2013.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><em>The twin combined fiscal and current account deficits now exceed a disquieting 13.2% of GDP.</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Overall, we have yet to detect a visible turnaround in the fiscal picture. The overall fiscal deficit is tracking at a disquieting 8.8% of GDP, driven in part by the surging net interest bill, which was exacerbated by the large losses on the central bank stock of Dollar-swaps.<strong> We expect the gradual fiscal consolidation process to last at least 3-4 years, perhaps longer.</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BrazilBadNewsBudgets.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BrazilBadNewsBudgets_0.png" width="600" height="469" /></a></strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> </blockquote> <p>As Barclays recently argued, a downgrade to junk is now just "<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-24/return-junk-status-only-matter-time-latin-americas-most-important-economy-barclays">a matter of time</a>," a development which may well usher in a new era in which the world's emerging economies begin to backslide into "frontier" status, and as we put it earlier this month, after that it'll be time to break out the humanitarian aid packages.</p> <p>* &nbsp;* &nbsp;*</p> <p><em>Bonus: Charting a Brazilian nightmare</em></p> <p><em><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BrazilNightmare.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BrazilNightmare_0.png" width="600" height="393" /></a></em></p> <p><em>Bonus Bonus: "That aint no unpopular President, THIS is an unpopular President"...</em></p> <p><em><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BrazilApproval.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/BrazilApproval.png" width="477" height="304" /></a></em></p> <p>Stay positive Brazil...</p> <p><em><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/08/Brazil_0_0.png" width="500" height="309" /><br /></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="514" height="318" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/Brazil_0.png?1440794441" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/no-recovery-you-brazil-officially-enters-recession-goldman-calls-numbers-disquieting#comments Barclays Brazil Budget Deficit Corruption Recession recovery Stagflation Fri, 28 Aug 2015 21:00:39 +0000 Tyler Durden 512555 at http://www.zerohedge.com Weekend Reading: Just A Correction, Or Something Else http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/weekend-reading-just-correction-or-something-else <p><a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/daily-x-change/2877-weekend-reading-just-a-correction-or-something-else.html"><em>Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,</em></a></p> <p>Earlier this week I posted two pieces of analysis with respect to the recent dive in the markets. The first discussed the possibility that this is just <a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2872">a correction within an ongoing bull market</a>. The second delved into the possibility that <a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2873">a new cyclical bear market has begun</a>. Only time will tell which is truly the case.</p> <p>However, in ALL cases, the initial decline led to a subsequent bounce and ultimately retested previous lows. As shown in the chart below, this was the case in 2010 and 2011 which were ultimately followed by Federal Reserve interventions that helped the bull market regain its footing.</p> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2015/SP500-2010-2011-Crash-082515.PNG" target="_blank" title="SP500-2010-2011-Crash-082515"><img alt="SP500-2010-2011-Crash-082515" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/2015/SP500-2010-2011-Crash-082515.PNG" width="600" /></a></p> <p>The question is whether, with economic growth rates slowing and deflationary pressures building, will the Fed again intervene by postponing rate hikes and injecting liquidity? Or, is this recent correction just the beginning of something larger? Only time will tell for certain. However, there is mounting evidence that we are indeed closer to the end of this bull market cycle than the beginning.</p> <p>This weekend&#39;s reading list is a smattering of views from bulls, to bears and everything in between as to the recent correction. Is it just a correction to be followed by a resumption of the bull market? Or something else?</p> <hr /> <h2><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">THE LIST</strong></span></h2> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">1) Panic Attack Or Start Of A Bear Market </strong></span><a href="http://blog.yardeni.com/2015/08/another-panic-attack-or-start-of-bear.html">by Ed Yardeni via Dr. Ed&#39;s Blog</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>There have been lots of panic attacks since the start of the bull market in early 2009. The first four of them occurred from the second through the fourth years of the current bull market, and they were full-fledged corrections. They were all triggered by worries that a recession was imminent, with anxiety focused on three major and varying concerns: a double-dip in the US, a disintegration of the Eurozone, and a hard landing in China--all having the potential to cause a global recession either individually or in combination. When those fears dissipated, relief rallies ensued.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Yardeni-SPX-082715.gif" target="_blank" title="Yardeni-SPX-082715"><img alt="Yardeni-SPX-082715" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Yardeni-SPX-082715.gif" style="height: 320px; width: 600px;" /></a></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;">Read Also:</span>&nbsp;Was Monday&#39;s Plunge Capitulation, Nah!&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/simonconstable/2015/08/27/was-mondays-market-plunge-a-mega-capitulation-nah/">by Simon Constable via Forbes</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>2) Dog Days Of Summer Not Over Yet </strong></u><a href="http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/127185454518/dog-days-not-over-for-market">by Jeff Hirsch via Almanac Trade Tumblr</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;The Dog Days are not over for the market. This hazy, hot and sultry time during July and August were named the Dog Days of summer in antiquity by stargazers in the Mediterranean as the time period before and after the conjunction of Sirius, the Dog Star of the constellation Canis Major (Big Dog) and the sun. Back in the day the Dog Days were often plagued with, fever, disease and discomfort.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Selling continues to plague the stock market and we expect selling will continue through September, the other worst month of the year along with its neighbor August. September is the worst month of the longer term since 1950. Around this time last year I was on CNBC and the other commentator in the segment, Dan Greenhaus, Chief Global Strategist, BTIG (Great guy and analyst whom we respect and does great work), keenly pointed out the S&amp;P 500 had been up in 8 of the previous 10 years from 2004 to 2013. So maybe September was not bad for the market anymore.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;">Read Also:</span> </strong><strong style="background-color: transparent;">10 Things To Consider About Recent Market Panic </strong><a href="http://247wallst.com/investing/2015/08/21/10-things-to-consider-about-the-recent-market-panic/2/">by John Ogg via 24/7 Wall Street</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong><span style="color: #dc0000;"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>3) What Happens Next Is Important </strong></span></span></strong></u><a href="http://adamhgrimes.com/blog/where-will-the-sp-500-go-next-heres-how-to-find-the-answer/">by Adam Grimes via AdamHGrimes.com</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;In October 2014, the selloff in stocks was strong enough (i.e., generated enough downside momentum) that we might reasonably have looked for another leg down. If that scenario was in play, what we &quot;should have&quot; seen was a fairly slow bounce, setting up some kind of flag/pullback, that would pretty quickly break to new lows. If that had happened, there was a possibility that we&#39;d see continued legs of selling and the eventual breakdown of trends on higher timeframes. This is a good roadmap for how lower timeframe trends can have an impact on higher timeframes.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Instead, what happened? The market turned around, rocketed higher, and we knew, literally within the space a few days, that this wasn&#39;t an environment in which we were likely to find good shorts. Instead of the slow bounce, we got a hard bounce and the market quickly went to new highs. Following the decline, that type of bounce was unusual, but it was a clear message from the market.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><strong><span style="color: #dc0000;"><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/what-mightve-been.png" target="_blank" title="what-mightve-been"><img alt="what-mightve-been" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/what-mightve-been.png" style="height: 290px; width: 600px;" /></a></span></strong></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #dc0000;">Read Also: <span style="color: #000000;">Some Good Things About Crashes&nbsp;</span></span></strong><a href="http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-24/some-good-things-about-crashes">by Matt Levine via Bloomberg</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">4) 99.7% Chance We&#39;re In A Bear Market </strong></strong></u><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/albert-edwards-thinks-were-in-a-bear-market-2015-8">by Myles Udland via Business Insider</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;In his latest note to clients, Edwards warns that the recent snapback rallies we&#39;ve seen in the stock market are merely headfakes and that stocks are probably headed lower.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In his note, Edwards references a model developed by his colleague Andrew Lapthorne, which incorporates macroeconomic and fundamental equity variables, and which currently indicates a 99.7% probability that we are in a bear market.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Edwards-BearMarket-Prob-082715.png" target="_blank" title="Edwards-BearMarket-Prob-082715"><img alt="Edwards-BearMarket-Prob-082715" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Edwards-BearMarket-Prob-082715.png" style="width: 601px; height: 287px;" /></a></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong>Also Read: <span style="color: #000000;">Here&#39;s Why The Stock Market Correction Isn&#39;t Over Yet</span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: #dc0000;"><span style="color: #000000;"> </span></span><span><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-the-stock-market-correction-isnt-over-yet-2015-08-26">by Anora Mahmudova via MarketWatch</a></span></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong>But Also Read: <span style="color: #000000;"><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Most Top Flight Market Timers Are Bullish </strong></strong></span></strong></span></strong><span style="color: #dc0000;"><span style="color: #000000;"><a href="http://www.barrons.com/articles/big-stocks-are-last-hope-for-a-decaying-market-1440016573?mod=rss_barrons_getting_technical" style="background-color: transparent;">by Mark Hulbert via MarketWatch</a></span></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>5) When There Is No Place To Hide </strong></u><a href="http://awealthofcommonsense.com/when-correlations-go-to-one/">by Ben Carlson via A Wealth Of Common Sense</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Some people assume that because nearly all risk assets fall at the same time that markets are becoming more and more intertwined with one another. While I think that globalization and the free flow of information could potentially be speeding up market cycles, risk assets have been highly correlated during stock market corrections for some time now. This is nothing new. Here are the historical numbers that show how different stock markets and market caps have performed during past large losses in the S&amp;P 500:&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Corrections-II1.png" target="_blank" title="Corrections-II1"><img alt="Corrections-II1" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Corrections-II1.png" style="width: 599px; height: 228px;" /></a></strong></span></strong></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong>Read Also: <span style="color: #000000;">It&#39;s Different This Time...But Its Happened Before </span></strong></span></strong><a href="http://www.marketanthropology.com/2015/08/its-different-this-time-but-its.html">by Erik Swarts via Market Anthropology</a></p> <hr /> <h2><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong>Other Reading</strong></span></strong></h2> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><strong>Like 2008 Never Happened&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/08/26/like-2008-never-happened/">by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Partners </a></strong></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><strong>The Difference Between Traders And Investors </strong><a href="http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.com/2015/08/the-difference-between-investors-and.html">by Cam Hui via Humble Student Of The Markets </a></strong></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><strong>Timing The Markets With Value And Trend </strong><a href="http://mebfaber.com/2015/08/24/worried-about-the-stock-market-you-should-be/">by Meb Faber via Meb Faber Research</a> </strong></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><strong>Interview With Jim Grant: Market A Hall Of Mirrors </strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-26/jim-grant-warns-fed-turned-stock-market-hall-mirrors">via ZeroHedge</a> </strong></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Are Central Banks Corrupted? <a href="http://www.economicpopulist.org/content/are-central-banks-corrupted-5829">By Paul Craig Roberts via The Economic Populist</a></strong></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Fact vs Fiction: Low Oil Prices And Houston Housing <a href="http://aaronlayman.com/2015/08/fact-vs-fiction-how-low-oil-prices-are-affecting-houstons-housing-market/">by Aaron Layman via Arron Layman.com</a></strong></p> </blockquote> <h2><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong style="background-color: transparent;">A Laugh For A Tough Week</strong></span></h2> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong style="background-color: transparent;">Everyone Who Started Watching MadMoney In 2005 Now Billionaires <a href="http://www.theonion.com/article/everyone-who-started-watching-mad-money-in-2005-no-32346?utm_source=Twitter&amp;utm_medium=SocialMarketing&amp;utm_campaign=Pic:NA:InFocus">via The Onion</a></strong></p> </blockquote> <hr /> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div> <p style="text-align: justify;"><em>&quot;You take the blue pill, the story ends. You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. <strong>You take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.</strong></em><em>&quot;</em><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><em> - </em></strong><em>Morpheus, The Matri</em><em>x</em><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><em> </em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Have a great weekend.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="605" height="487" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150828_morph.jpg?1440786045" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/weekend-reading-just-correction-or-something-else#comments Bear Market Central Banks China Eurozone Federal Reserve Jim Grant Market Cycles Recession The Matrix The Onion The Red Pill Fri, 28 Aug 2015 20:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 512549 at http://www.zerohedge.com Biggest Short Squeeze Since 2008 Bank Bailout And Epic VIX Rigging Sends Stocks Green For The Week http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/stocks-end-week-green-after-biggest-short-squeeze-fed-bailed-out-banks-nov-2008 <p><u><strong>UNRIGGED!!</strong></u></p> <p><u><strong>VIX ETFs were screwed with...</strong></u></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD19.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD19_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 846px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>To ensure S&amp;P closed Green!!!</strong></u></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD20.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD20_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 430px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>After a week like that, we think everyone needs some downtime... relax... (NSFW)</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/92i5m3tV5XY" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Before we get to stocks, oil is the big news this week... as a short-squeeze morphed into leaked news which became the real news of a Saudi invasion of Yemen...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD12.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD12_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 366px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>This is the biggest weekly gain for WTI since Feb 2011 (when politicial unrest surged in MidEast and Northern Africa with Libya at the heart)</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 299px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As the Oil-USD correlation regime has flipped dramatically post-FOMC Minutes...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_oilcorr.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_oilcorr_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 290px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Sparking a huge squeeze higher in Energy stocks...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD3_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 321px;" /></a></p> <p><em>8 of the 10 biggest gainers in SPDR oil and gas exploration ETF are refiners which are more like inverse bets on oil (crude is an input thus betting on dropping oil prices flowing through to margins)... so the ultimate irony is XLE is surging on negative oil bets and dragging oil higher.</em></p> <p>Because that has worked out so well before...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD4.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD4_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 317px;" /></a></p> <p>As Credit Suisse noted - nothing has changed with the fundamentals.</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Volume today in stocks was abysmal...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD17.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD17_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 309px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Energy&#39;s ramp supported much of the gains in the broad indices...and with panic buiyi9ng at the close thanks to XIV manipulation</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD16.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD16_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 472px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>A look at The Dow futures gives a sense of the panic.. and the resistance that it can&#39;t break...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD13.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD13_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 365px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Futures for the week show the craziness of the moves... <u><strong>DUDLEY IS THE NEW BULLARD!!!</strong></u></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD15.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD15_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 311px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>VIX was all kinds of messy this week - slammed lower into the close to guarantee a green close for stocks</strong></u></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD18.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD18_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 360px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But VXX shorts were dramatially squeezed every day...<strong> this was VXX&#39;s biggest weekly gain since May 2010.. and the biggest 2-week rise (up 68%) ever...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD8.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD8_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 382px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>56 members of the S&amp;P 500 gained more than 5% this week!!!</strong></u></p> <p><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD5_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 755px;" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>And &quot;Most Shorted&quot; had their best (or worst) 3-day surge since Nov 26th 2008 - i.e. the biggest short squeeze since post-Lehman creation of TALF, bailout of Citi, froced acquisiion of BofA and Merrill, and Fed buying GSE debt</strong></u></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD6.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD6_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 296px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD14.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD14_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 319px;" /></a></p> <p>The last time shorts were squeezed this much, this happeened...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD7.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD7.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 439px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>The Bottom Line: Window Dressing (Most Momentum) and Squeezes (Most Shorted) provided all the ammo needed to create the illusion that all is well</strong></p> <p><strong>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</strong></p> <p>Treasury yields had an ugly week as investors were awakened to just what China&#39;s devaluation dilemma means... Rising odds of a Sept hike (rom Fischer) sent the long-end lower and front-end higher today...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD10.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD10_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 315px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The USD Index was up around 1.3% on the week - the best week in the last 6 weeks led by AUD and EUR weakness...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD9.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD9_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 310px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Commodities were mixed on the week with USD strength sending PMs lower but growth hyper, squeezes, and war driving copper and crude higher...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD11.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD11_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 315px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <p><strong>Bonus Chart: Briefly this week, US equities reflected their short-term macro fundamentals...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD1.jpg"><img height="310" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_EOD1_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Bonus Bonus Chart: This is the data The Fed is dependent on...</strong></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Here&#39;s the &quot;data&quot; they&#39;re waiting on <a href="http://t.co/AWB7UVrqSQ">pic.twitter.com/AWB7UVrqSQ</a></p> <p>&mdash; Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) <a href="https://twitter.com/Not_Jim_Cramer/status/637288695939239937">August 28, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/stocks-end-week-green-after-biggest-short-squeeze-fed-bailed-out-banks-nov-2008#comments China Copper Credit Suisse Crude Jim Cramer Merrill TALF Twitter Twitter Fri, 28 Aug 2015 20:06:21 +0000 Tyler Durden 512552 at http://www.zerohedge.com Fed Kocherlakota: 2015 Rate Rise Not Appropriate, Open To More Stimulus http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/fed-kocherlakota-2015-rate-rise-not-appropriate-open-more-stimulus <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="line-height: 1; box-sizing: border-box;">EMOTION MOVING MARKETS NOW:<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cc0000;">&nbsp;11/100 EXTREME FEAR</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">PREVIOUS CLOSE:<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #c00000;">&nbsp;12/</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cc0000;">100 EXTREME FEAR</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">ONE WEEK AGO:&nbsp;<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cc0000;">5/100 EXTREME FEAR</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">ONE MONTH AGO:&nbsp;<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #c00000;">21/100&nbsp;EXTREME&nbsp;</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cc0000;">FEAR</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">ONE YEAR AGO:<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cc0000;">&nbsp;33/100 FEAR</span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Put and Call Options:<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #c00000;">&nbsp;EXTREME FEAR&nbsp;</span></strong>During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 22.79% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Market Volatility:<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #595959;">&nbsp;</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #c00000;">FEAR&nbsp;</span></strong>The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 28.99, 77.76% above its 50-day moving average and indicates that investors are concerned about the near-term values of their portfolios.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Stock Price Strength:&nbsp;<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cc0000;">EXTREME FEAR</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cc0000;">&nbsp;</span>The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows is slightly greater than the number hitting highs and is at the lower end of its range, indicating extreme fear.</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">PIVOT POINTS</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6731/f08ed9caa6be07d3/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">EURUSD</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6733/f120db28af398c8c/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">GBPUSD</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6735/999299aca203c582/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">USDJPY</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6737/8f421bc417a3a5b6/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">USDCAD</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6739/6eb221c2468c90ac/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">AUDUSD</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6741/576b2f73a6bd51cb/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">EURJPY</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6743/b1c8460eb6a03907/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">EURCHF</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6745/27de57a2ae2375ce/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">EURGBP</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6747/e9ca834f9e67b821/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">GBPJPY</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6749/5a3026b02152a1c2/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">NZDUSD</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6751/8c3e5211896db7bd/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">USDCHF</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6753/7b152ee345958505/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">EURAUD</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6755/148ecdbf46ec01c7/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">AUDJPY&nbsp;<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6757/2c2c377561de5584/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">S&amp;P 500 (ES)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6759/0ccac59b63eff0c3/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">NASDAQ 100 (NQ)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6761/e2e094b5c3818c0b/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">DOW 30 (YM)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6763/846e85b92b377ceb/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;RUSSELL 2000 (TF)&nbsp;</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6765/9da50391ef71dbdc/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Euro (6E)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6767/411ca3be4f5d974b/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">Pound (6B)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6769/5c851955205b7510/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">EUROSTOXX 50 (FESX)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6771/1900f5166e7adaf9/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">DAX 30 (FDAX)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6773/add24f4bf6a97f86/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">BOBL (FGBM)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6775/af252fffaa0a35a1/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">SCHATZ (FGBS)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6777/c074f87c4a16713e/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">BUND (FGBL)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6779/79bfad437763a966/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">CRUDE OIL (CL)</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;|&nbsp;</strong><a href="https://rl110.infusionsoft.com/app/linkClick/6781/4dbf8a4569838f41/2926455/e098c24b164bb9de" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">GOLD (GC)</strong></a><span class="MsoHyperlink" style="box-sizing: border-box;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"></strong></span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">MEME OF THE DAY&nbsp;–&nbsp;<a href="http://www.financelol.com/view.aspx?c=c/635762772862959999.jpeg" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">I JUST LOVE MY NEW SWEATER</a></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #c00000;">UNUSUAL&nbsp;</span>ACTIVITY</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">WLL</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;vol pop to highs Activity in the SEP 17 CALLS 1800+ @$1.30</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">LL</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;Jan 15 PUT Activity 10k @$3.30 on offer</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">SSTK</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;SEP 35 CALLS 1300+ @$.75 ON offer</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">TCK</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;Nov 9 CALL Activity @$.25 right by offer 5000 Contracts</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">RE</span></strong><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US">&nbsp;Director Purchase 5,000 @$169.5 Purchase 5,000 @$170.00</span></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.unusualactivity.net/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">More Unusual Activity…</strong></a><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box;" lang="EN-US"></span></strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">HEADLINES</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">Fed VC Fischer: Still too early to tell if September hike will happen</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">Fed Kocherlakota: 2015 rate rise not appropriate, open to more stimulus</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">Fed Mester: US economy can support rate increase</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">Fed Bullard: Rate hike would signal confidence, unfazed by mkt turmoil</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">Fed's Lockhart: Market vols makes him less certain on Sept hike</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker updated to 1.2% (prev. 1.4%)</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">US Personal Income (MoM) Jul: 0.40% (est 0.40%; prev 0.40%)</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">US Personal Spending (MoM) Jul: 0.30% (est 0.40%; rev prev 0.30%)</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">US PCE Core (YoY) Jul: 1.20% (est 1.30%; prev 1.30%)</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">German CPI YoY (Aug P): 0.2% (est 0.10%, prev 0.20%)</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">German CPI MoM (Aug P): 0% (est -0.10%, prev 0.20%)</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">SNB Jordan: Swiss franc significantly overvalued, ready to intervene</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">GOVERNMENTS/CENTRAL BANKS</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCIQqQIwAGoVChMImpLVxZDMxwIVxxXbCh3wzAVN&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2015%2F08%2F28%2Ffeds-fischer-still-too-early-to-tell-if-september-hike-will-happen.html&amp;ei=HoPgVZqLE8er7AbwmZfoBA&amp;usg=AFQjCNGPczFYC4o0rk-EptKRgMQ2qMbFiQ" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Fed VC Fischer: Still too early to tell if September hike will happen --CNBC</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=newssearch&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCAQqQIoADAAahUKEwijotyWkMzHAhVnEdsKHZMsDUU&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2015%2F08%2F28%2Fkocherlakota-near-term-interest-rate-rise-not-appropriate.html&amp;ei=u4LgVePYNOei7AaT2bSoBA&amp;usg=AFQjCNGT5KTsEprt1wAVEOpzAOTbnsdreA" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Fed Kocherlakota: 2015 rate rise not appropriate, open to more stimulus --CNBC</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.livesquawk.com/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Kocherlakota would prefer a hike in second half of 2016 --FBN</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/cleveland-feds-mester-says-u-s-economy-can-support-rate-increase-1440738129" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Fed Mester: US economy can support rate increase --WSJ</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=2&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCUQqQIwAWoVChMI__-ItJDMxwIVgWbbCh2Nkw1d&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Ffastft%2F384001%2Ffeds-bullard-speaks-on-volatility-lift-off&amp;ei=-YLgVb-fGYHN7QaNp7boBQ&amp;usg=AFQjCNHkxtFR0MRUsbZ9AvlM3gONSm-hYQ" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Fed Bullard: US rate hike would signal confidence --FT</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://reut.rs/1KezlJR" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Fed Bullard unfazed by market turmoil --Rtrs</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.livesquawk.cvom/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Fed's Lockhart: Market vols makes him less certain on Sept hike, though every meeting is live --MNI</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker updated to 1.2% (prev. 1.4%)</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id/ref_20150828_tjn/source/ref_20150828_tjn.en.pdf" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">SNB Jordan: Swiss franc significantly overvalued</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id/ref_20150828_tjn/source/ref_20150828_tjn.en.pdf" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">SNB Jordan: SNB stands ready to intervene</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.livesquawk.com/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Japan EcoMin Amari: Canada elections, US primaries, may affect momentum on TPP talks --Kyodo</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCMQqQIwAGoVChMIg5jPr5HMxwIV8RbbCh2gsQyO&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fuk.reuters.com%2Farticle%2F2015%2F08%2F28%2Fuk-eurozone-greece-poll-idUKKCN0QX0DT20150828&amp;ei=_IPgVYOqH_Gt7Aag47LwCA&amp;usg=AFQjCNF2eYyQWuDlZxLWPSnfoY7S1d8SRg" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Greece's Syriza to win election but face setback, polls show --Rtrs</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">GEOPOLITICS</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://bloom.bg/1MSSC2d" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Merkel, Hollande, Putin plan weekend call on Ukraine --BBG</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">FIXED INCOME</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11828779/Reflation-threat-to-bonds-as-money-supply-catches-fire-in-Europe.html" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">BONDS COMMENT: Reflation threat to bonds as money supply catches fire in Europe --Telegraph</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://bit.ly/1Kf1ro7" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Two departures in Swiss debt capital markets --IFR</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://bit.ly/1IogyE8" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">Merck jumps in first with jumbo M&amp;A trade --IFR</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/08/28/treasury-market-is-offering-stock-picks-att-verizon-are-a-buy/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">COMMENT: Treasury Market Is Offering Stock Picks: AT&amp;T, Verizon Are a Buy --WSJ</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">FX</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=newssearch&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CB8QqQIoADAAahUKEwjdr4qDl8zHAhXGrtsKHcLvDRg&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.marketwatch.com%2Fstory%2Fdollar-on-track-to-finish-turbulent-week-higher-against-euro-yen-2015-08-28&amp;ei=6YngVZ2XLMbd7gbC37fAAQ&amp;usg=AFQjCNHdDleOwxAF-MWhWzXZQvD7509GxQ" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">USD: Dollar on track to finish turbulent week higher against euro, yen --MW</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://goo.gl/KSIJE1" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CAD: USDCAD retreats from as oil jumps to $45 --FXStreet</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=newssearch&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCEQ-AsoATAAahUKEwjAmuWml8zHAhUMBtsKHaroAds&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2015-08-27%2Fpound-gains-versus-euro-as-focus-turns-to-central-bank-policy&amp;ei=NIrgVcCwJYyM7Aaq0YfYDQ&amp;usg=AFQjCNGbN2_Gi9nXDpAokdY0LOIt2l34kg" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">GBP: Pound falls vs euro as UK growth slows in Q2 --BBG</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=newssearch&amp;cd=4&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCsQqQIoADADahUKEwj8quXIl8zHAhWwB9sKHXEfCl0&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fftalphaville.ft.com%2F2015%2F08%2F28%2F2138825%2Fchinas-ongoing-fx-trilemma-and-its-possible-consequences%2F&amp;ei=e4rgVbyBOLCP7AbxvqjoBQ&amp;usg=AFQjCNFrCnE2_VoCpvQQmz3XzNfcKj0JWg" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CNY COMMENT: China's ongoing FX trilemma and its possible consequences --Alphaville</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=newssearch&amp;cd=3&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCcQqQIoADACahUKEwju96jjl8zHAhXSFtsKHTWGDTg&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Fmarkets%2Faustralian-dollar-lifted-by-commodity-gains%2Fstory-e6frg916-1227502377343&amp;ei=s4rgVa7SIdKt7Aa1jLbAAw&amp;usg=AFQjCNGhfE_pd4mB3EdVXUBUvxf4NxcCHA" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">AUD: Aussie lifted by commodities --Australian</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=newssearch&amp;cd=2&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCIQqQIoADABahUKEwjNvJ_0l8zHAhVhStsKHeY4D04&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nzherald.co.nz%2Fbusiness%2Fnews%2Farticle.cfm%3Fc_id%3D3%26objectid%3D11504517&amp;ei=14rgVY31AuGU7Qbm8bzwBA&amp;usg=AFQjCNELgMKi9HuZNN1_FGnxkbM-MbIiSA" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">NZD: Kiwi heading for 3.1pc weekly drop after China slump --NZH</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">ENERGY/COMMODITIES</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.livesquawk.com/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CRUDE: WTI futures settle 6.25% higher at $45.22 per barrel --Livesquawk</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.livesquawk.com/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CRUDE: Brent futures setlle 5.25% higher at $50.05 per barrel --Livesquawk</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCIQqQIwAGoVChMIq7GIvpHMxwIVx0vbCh1dgQgu&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2015%2F08%2F28%2Freuters-america-exclusive-arab-opec-producers-brace-for-oil-price-weakness-for-rest-of-2015.html&amp;ei=GoTgVau8MceX7QbdgqLwAg&amp;usg=AFQjCNEToAvERM9ojcbiZ_gUD-uud_otKA" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CRUDE: Arab Opec producers brace for oil-price weakness for rest of 2015 --Rtrs</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.forex.com/uk/post?SDN=66771bf7-f61d-43f7-866a-b83e2d3ddb25&amp;Pa=20db1fa6-e674-420c-9a87-2ee29261d638" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CRUDE: Crude short squeezed --Forex.com</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://on.mktw.net/1PDbYaN" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">METALS: Gold sets up for first gain in five sessions --MW</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">EQUITIES</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://t.co/uNPGTxSto0" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">FLOW: US funds cut recommended global equity exposure again --Rtrs</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCIQqQIwAGoVChMItOuD4pbMxwIVA0TbCh04cQrt&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.reuters.com%2Farticle%2F2015%2F08%2F28%2Fperrigo-company-ma-mylan-idUSL1N1130GD20150828&amp;ei=pIngVbSJGYOI7Qa44qnoDg&amp;usg=AFQjCNHrJK9SgMVm9xz7lyBmdzL4_x4laQ" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">M&amp;A: Mylan shareholders back Perrigo takeover, tender offer up next --Rrts</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://bloom.bg/1Ub44vM" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">BANKS: BofA shareholders should vote to separate the CEO and chairman roles --BBG</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://ift.tt/1Ipm4Xp" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">GAMING: Battle for Bwin reflects rising stakes --FT</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://on.ft.com/1fKy66G" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">TRADING: Charles Schwab trading system issue resolved --FT</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&amp;rct=j&amp;q=&amp;esrc=s&amp;source=web&amp;cd=1&amp;cad=rja&amp;uact=8&amp;ved=0CCMQqQIwAGoVChMI9LSJ8JbMxwIVTS_bCh3tDglf&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fuk.reuters.com%2Farticle%2F2015%2F08%2F28%2Fus-facebook-germany-racism-idUKKCN0QX1XW20150828&amp;ei=wYngVbTQNM3e7AbtnaT4BQ&amp;usg=AFQjCNEgF4TLeFEVVYW-EFAzyjrEEllX_A" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">TECH: Facebook must obey German law even if free speech curtailed --Rtrs</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">&nbsp;</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box;">EMERGING MARKETS</strong></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/china-will-respond-too-late-to-avoid-recession-citigroup-says" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CHINA: Citi: China Will Respond Too Late to Avoid Recession --BBG</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://news.forexlive.com/!/pboc-to-cut-rates-again-by-end-of-dec-20150828" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CHINA: POLL: PBOC to cut rates again by end of Dec --ForexLive</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.livesquawk.com/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">CHINA: PBOC Conducted CNY60 Bln 7-Day SLO Op. At 2.35% Today --BBG</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://on.ft.com/1MSYfNH" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">BRAZIL: Brazil economy dips more than expected --FT</a></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.livesquawk.com/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #428bca; background: transparent;">S&amp;P affirms Ukraine CC, outlook still negative --Livesquawk</a></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;">&nbsp;</p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px 0px 10px; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1;"><a href="http://www.financialjuice.com/zerohedge"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user22400/imageroot/2013/08/ZH.png" style="max-width: 100%; height: auto;" /></a></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/fed-kocherlakota-2015-rate-rise-not-appropriate-open-more-stimulus#comments Aussie Brazil Capital Markets CBOE Central Banks China CPI Crude Crude Oil fixed headlines Japan Money Supply NASDAQ Nasdaq 100 OPEC Personal Income Recession Russell 2000 Swiss Franc Tender Offer Ukraine Verizon Volatility Yen Fri, 28 Aug 2015 19:57:29 +0000 Pivotfarm 512551 at http://www.zerohedge.com America (In 1 License Plate) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/america-1-license-plate <p>Presented with no comment...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_lic.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_lic_0.jpg" width="600" height="383" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.theburningplatform.com/2015/08/27/license-plate-of-truth/"><em>Source: The Burning Platform blog</em></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="549" height="350" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150828_lic.jpg?1440785609" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/america-1-license-plate#comments Fri, 28 Aug 2015 19:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 512548 at http://www.zerohedge.com Explaining The Stock Market Rebound In 1 Simple Chart http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/explaining-stock-market-rebound-1-simple-chart <p>Many were<strong> stunned at the pace of the v-shaped recovery in US equity markets this week after Monday and Tuesday&#39;s carnage. </strong>However, as the following chart makes very clear, there was good reason for it... Having overshot to the downside of &quot;Fed-Balance-Sheet-Implied&quot; levels but around 100 S&amp;P points, the broad index ripped back higher to almost perfectly settle at &quot;Fed Fair Value&quot; - between 1980 and 2000. <strong><em>But, there is a rather ominous event occuring in 2016 that is out of The Fed&#39;s control that implies S&amp;P 1,800 unless QE4 is unleashed.</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Fed balance sheet implies an S&amp;P level around 1990...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_FedBS.jpg"><img height="315" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08-overflow/20150828_FedBS_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>What happens next? Well, Scotiabank&#39;s Guy Haselmann has some thoughts...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>The Fed&#39;s balance sheet has $400 billion of maturities to deal with in early 2016 which the market place is not paying enough attention to.</strong></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I believe the Fed will want to allow as much of this as possible to roll off (i.e. the balance sheet will shrink).&nbsp; <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The decline in the Feds balance sheet is a defacto tightening.</span></strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Fed may be reluctant to do both, i.e. hike, while also allowing the balance sheet to shrink too quickly.&nbsp;&nbsp; They could hike and do some re-investment, but it may be strange re-invest a large portion at the same time that they are hiking.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>I believe market turmoil and balance sheet maturities will cause a period of (hike) pauses in 2016.&nbsp; If this is true, Treasury market yields may not rise as high as some pundits are warning.</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>A $400 billion reduction - which is inevitable unless The Fed unleashes a new QE - <strong>means S&amp;P drops to 1800... and further...</strong></p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="963" height="505" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150828_FedBS.jpg?1440783340" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/explaining-stock-market-rebound-1-simple-chart#comments Equity Markets recovery Fri, 28 Aug 2015 19:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 512547 at http://www.zerohedge.com How Investors Respond To A Market Crash http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/how-investors-respond-market-crash <p><em>By Nicholas Colas of Convergex</em></p> <p><strong>Tell ‘Em That It’s Human Nature </strong></p> <p>The surge in volatility over the past week enabled this year’s aggregate number of plus or minus 1% moves in the S&amp;P 500 – currently 40 – to exceed last year’s total of 38. There were nineteen positive 1% or more days in 2014, and 19 negative days compared to 22 up days and 18 down days this year. We need 14 more 1% days in order to reach the annual average of 54 since 1958, representing only 16% of the next 86 trading days left in the year. As we progress throughout the balance of 2015, we expect to encounter more of the volatility of the past week than the past few years. One percent or more days tend to pick up by the fifth or sixth year of bull markets such as the rallies of the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, and we are in our seventh. Additionally, the VIX often hits its annual peak in October – for example last year – more so than any other month with a total of 5 since 1990. December may statistically register as the quietist month with 7 annual troughs over the past 25 years, but this year may prove different due to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s timing of an interest rate hike.</p> <p><strong>What do you think moved financial markets over the past week of turbulent trading? </strong>Perhaps slowing growth and unstable equities in China, renewed fears of deflation, the impending rate hike by the Federal Reserve, or all of the above. Each example certainly played a role. One underappreciated culprit irrespective of economic fundamentals, however, lends itself to volatile capital market environments: investor psychology. </p> <p><strong>In the midst of turmoil among asset classes, investors tend to make irrational decisions, such as panicking and liquidating at inopportune times.</strong> Nobel Prize-winning Psychologist Daniel Kahneman helps explain ill-conceived reactions to the market with his concept of loss aversion. That’s the fear and feelings of loss surpass the joy one may receive from a similarly sized potential gain. </p> <p><strong>In order to frame this discussion of volatility, we dug up old surveys of institutional and individual investors that recorded their responses to the 1987 market crash</strong>. They were conducted by Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller in October of that year, just as the field of behavioral finance started to garner credibility and attention. We recognize the market has evolved rapidly and grown in complexity since with the development of high frequency trading, for example, but our minds still work the same. </p> <p><strong>These surveys, therefore, serve as a useful case study to glean insight on the psychology of investors during significant market events.</strong> Here is a brief breakdown of the results (link included at the end of this note):</p> <ul> <li><strong>Survey methodology</strong>: Shiller sent out a questionnaire to 125 individual investors about the downturn in the stock market from October 14-16, 1987, and received 51 responses. He also sent out another survey following large price declines on the morning of October 19, 1987 and garnered 51 responses as well. Shiller then conducted a full study of 605 individual investors and 284 institutional investors’ responses to questionnaires distributed after October 19th, 1987 that accounted for the news of the day. </li> <li>&nbsp;"<strong>No clear-cut reaction to news”: </strong>Shiller asked participants to rate the importance of news stories that the media listed as possible causes of the stock market selloff from October 14-19, 1987. The 200-point drop in the Dow on the morning of the 19th was the highest rated among both institutional and individual investors, followed by the fall in prices during the prior week in second or third for either cohort. Other top of mind concerns, particularly among Institutional investors, was the recent climb in interest rates. With that said, Shiller concluded that investors likely reacted to price movements themselves on days of large market declines rather than specific news stories. </li> <li>&nbsp;“<strong>Much talk, much anxiety</strong>…”: Almost one fourth of individual investors and about 40% of institutional investors “reported experiencing a contagion of fear from other investors”. Of the individuals who sold on October 19, 1987, over half “reported experiencing contagion of fear”. Additionally, a little over one third of individual investors and slightly more than half of institutional investors said their conversations touched on the events of 1929 leading up to the 19th. </li> <li>&nbsp;“<strong>Many investors thought they knew what the market will do”: </strong>Just shy of 30% of both intuitional and individual investors said “yes” to a question that asked if they “had a pretty good idea when a rebound was to occur” on October 19, 1987. Many individuals said they knew based on “intuition” or “gut feeling”, while several institutional investors reported “gut feeling”, “historical evidence and common sense,” or “market psychology”. Obviously, the remaining 70% felt differently.</li> <li><strong>&nbsp;"Investors thought investor psychology moved the markets”. </strong>Several survey participants attributed the price declines from October 14-19, 1987 to the “overpricing of the market before the crash” or stop-losses on the institutional side. Another theme included investor irrationality, which garnered a quarter of individual and institutional responses. Moreover, 67.5% of individual investors and 64% of institutional investors said the theory of investor psychology rather than fundamentals explained the selloff. By contrast, Shiller noted that results obtained previously from a random sample of institutional investors showed 79% held an individual stock on a normal day due to a theory about fundamentals.&nbsp; </li> </ul> <p><strong>In sum, Shiller determined that the crash occurred due to investor reaction to price and investor reaction to each other</strong>: “the communications proceeded rapidly, and prices were checked with great frequency”. Fast forward to today, and this theory compounds itself in an age when communication, stock quotes, and financial news are all quickly available with simple swipes of the finger or a few taps of buttons. Consequently, the surveys from nearly 30 years ago inform Shiller’s most recent commentary on the collapse in U.S. stock prices over the past week. While most economists blame China, Shiller blames human nature.</p> <p><strong>We look to the number of annual one percent days for the S&amp;P 500 and seasonal patterns in the VIX – the market’s designated “fear indicator” – for historical context on what to expect in terms of market volatility relative to each year and economic cycle</strong>. The results highlight Nassim Taleb’s theory of Black Swans, or that outliers (in this case outsized moves in stock returns) occur more frequently than the math of Normal Distributions suggests. Consider this list of stats broken out into ten bullets (tables and charts of the data follow this note):</p> <ul> <li><strong>The average annual number of plus 1% moves in the S&amp;P 500 from 1958 to 2014 totals 53.6</strong>. This includes an average of 27.5 days up 1% or more, and 26.1 days down 1% or more.&nbsp; </li> <li><strong>The period from 1958 to 1970 was much less volatile, with an annual average of only twenty seven 1% or greater days per year</strong>. From 1971 through 2014, the annual average increased to 61.5 (32 up, 29.5 down). Since there are about 250 trading days in the year, this suggests a 25% chance that stocks rally or selloff by 1% or more in any session.&nbsp; </li> <li><strong>From 2010 to 2014, the average is 59.8 days (31.4 up, 28.4 down). </strong>Over the past three years through 2014, the average falls to 42.3 (23.3 up, 19.0 down).&nbsp; </li> <li><strong>Looking at the pattern of the annual 1% days in the S&amp;P 500 since 1958, market swings typically occur in the beginning of a bull market, wane, and then climb higher towards the end of consecutive annual gains in equities. </strong>Using the rally in the 1980’s up until the market crash, for example, shows eighty two 1% or more moves in 1982, which declined to 28 by 1985. This figure, however, picked back up to 61 in 1986 and 95 in 1987 during the fifth and sixth years of stock advances. Likewise, there were 118 plus or minus 1% moves in 2009 at the start of the most recent bull market, which fell to 38 in 2014 or its sixth year of gains. </li> <li><strong>Given that we passed last year’s total of thirty eight (19 up, 19 down) 1% days this week – currently at 40 (22, 18) – we expect that volatility will continue during the remaining four months of 2015 as part of a reversion to longer term averages</strong>. One percent days accelerated in the fifth and sixth years of the bull markets in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s. We are now in our seventh year as the Fed allowed the capital markets more time to hibernate with its easy monetary policies, but investors are waking up to the imminent tightening measures that may take effect as soon as this year.&nbsp;&nbsp; </li> <li><strong>Getting back to the annual average of 53.6 dating back to 1958 requires 13.6 more days of plus or minus one percent moves, or 16% of the next 86 trading days of the year</strong>. Reaching the annual average of 61.5 since 1971 would take 21.5 more days, or a quarter of the trading days left in 2015. </li> <li><strong>The CBOE VIX Index has registered both annual high and low points throughout most months of each year since 1990, but the peaks and troughs do tend to cluster... </strong></li> <li><strong>If the VIX were randomly distributed across time, you’d expect each month of the year to post both two highs and two lows over the last 25 years. </strong>Yet this is not the case; some months have substantially more or less than that average. October’s price action, for example, typically experiences the most volatility with the VIX hitting its annual high five times during this month over the measure’s existence. The “fear index’s” performance last year added to this total. Also, note that the VIX has never troughed in October in any year since 1990. </li> <li><strong>By contrast, investors don’t usually run into much market noise in the month of the “Santa Clause rally”. </strong>The VIX has fallen to its annual bottom in December during seven years. This measure only peaked in December once back in 1996 amid a weakening dollar and turmoil in China’s financial markets. </li> <li><strong>January, on the other hand, is a mixed bag with the VIX peaking and bottoming during four years each. </strong>As for the remaining months, most put at least one point up on the board but are less volatile comparatively: February (0 high, 0 low), March (1, 2), April (3, 1), May (1, 1), June (3, 1), August (3, 2), September (2, 0), November (2, 2). </li> </ul> <p>What does this signal about trading during the balance of 2015? <strong>Get used to the recent wide swings in the market because they are likely to continue as we head towards the most volatile month of the year: October</strong>. Perhaps December will provide some relief during the typically quiet month. But with the Fed likely pushing off raising short-term interest rates past September, Santa may bring coal this year as opposed to the gift of historically low rates that supported equity valuations over the past six. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/colas%20vix.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/colas%20vix_0.jpg" width="500" height="706" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="510" height="319" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/1929%20crash%20headline.jpg?1440787690" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-28/how-investors-respond-market-crash#comments Black Swans Capital Markets CBOE China Federal Reserve High Frequency Trading High Frequency Trading Institutional Investors Market Crash Nobel Laureate Price Action Robert Shiller Volatility Fri, 28 Aug 2015 19:08:19 +0000 Tyler Durden 512544 at http://www.zerohedge.com