en Brexit: Individualism > Nationalism > Globalism <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Jeff Deist via The Mises Institute,</em></a></p> <p><strong><span style="line-height: 25px;">Decentralization and devolution of state power is always a good thing, regardless of the motivations behind such movements.</span></strong></p> <p>Hunter S. Thompson, looking back on 60s counterculture in San Francisco, lamented the end of that era and its imagined flower-child innocence:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark &mdash; that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.</p> </blockquote> <p><em><strong>Does today&rsquo;s Brexit vote similarly mark the spot where the once-inevitable march of globalism begins to recede? Have ordinary people around the world reached the point where real questions about self-determination have become too acute to ignore any longer?&nbsp;</strong></em></p> <p><u><strong>Globalism, championed almost exclusively by political and economic elites, has been the dominant force in the West for a hundred years. </strong></u>World War I and the League of Nations established the framework for multinational military excursions, while the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank set the stage for the eventual emergence of the US dollar as a worldwide reserve currency. Progressive government programs in Western countries promised a new model for universalism and peace in the aftermath of the destruction of Europe. Human rights, democracy, and enlightened social views were now to serve as hallmarks of a post-monarchical Europe and rising US.<span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 115%; font-family: &quot;Bookman Old Style&quot;,serif;"> </span></p> <p>But globalism was never liberalism, nor was it intended to be by its architects. <strong>As its core, globalism has always meant rule by illiberal elites under the guise of mass democracy.</strong> It has always been distinctly anti-democratic and anti-freedom, even as it purported to represent liberation from repressive governments and poverty.</p> <p>Globalism is not, as its supporters claim, simply the inevitable outcome of modern technology applied to communication, trade,and travel. It is not &ldquo;the world getting smaller.&rdquo;<strong> It is, in fact, an ideology and worldview that must be imposed by statist and cronyist means.</strong> It is the civic religion of people named Clinton, Bush, Blair, Cameron, and Lagarde.</p> <p><strong>Yes, libertarians advocate unfettered global trade.</strong> Even marginally free trade has unquestionably created enormous wealth and prosperity for millions around the world. Trade, specialization, and an understanding of comparative advantage have done more to relieve poverty than a million United Nations or International Monetary Funds.</p> <p><strong>But the EU, GATT, WTO, NAFTA, TPP, and the whole alphabet soup of trade schemes are wholly illiberal impediments masquerading as real commercial freedom. </strong>In fact, true free trade occurs only in the <em>absence</em> of government agreements. The only legislation required is a unilateral one-sentence bill: Country X hereby eliminates all import duties, taxes, and tariffs on all Y goods imported from country Z.</p> <p>And as Godfrey Bloom <a href="">explains</a>,<strong> the European Union is primarily a <em>customs</em> zone, not a free trade zone.</strong> A bureaucracy in Brussels is hardly necessary to enact simple pan-European tariff reductions. It is necessary, however, to begin building what globalism truly demands: a <em>de facto</em> European government, complete with dense regulatory and tax rules, quasi-judicial bodies, a nascent military, and further subordination of national, linguistic, and cultural identities.</p> <p>Which brings us to the Brexit vote, which offers Britons far more than simply an <strong>opportunity to remove themselves from a doomed EU political and monetary project.</strong> It is an opportunity to forestall the juggernaut, at least for a period, and reflect on the current path. <strong>It is a chance to fire a shot heard around the world, to challenge the wisdom of the &ldquo;globalism is inevitable&rdquo; narrative.</strong> It is the UK&rsquo;s last chance to ask &mdash; in a time when even asking is an act of rebellion &mdash; the most important political question of our day or any day: <em>who decides?</em></p> <p><strong>Ludwig von Mises understood that self-determination is the fundamental goal of liberty, of real liberalism.</strong> It&rsquo;s true that libertarians ought not to concern themselves with &ldquo;national sovereignty&rdquo; in the political sense,&nbsp;because governments are not sovereign kings and should never be treated as worthy of determining the course of our lives. But it is also true that the more attenuated the link between an individual and the body purporting to govern him, the less control &mdash; self-determination &mdash; that individual has.</p> <p>To quote Mises, from his 1927 classic (in German) <a href=""><em>Liberalismus</em></a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>If it were in any way possible to grant this right of self-determination to every individual person, it would have to be done.</p> </blockquote> <p>Ultimately, Brexit is not a referendum on trade, immigration, or the technical rules promulgated by the (awful) European Parliament.<strong> It is a referendum on nationhood, which is a step away from globalism and closer to individual self-determination.</strong> Libertarians should view the decentralization and devolution of state power as ever and always a good thing, regardless of the motivations behind such movements. <strong>Reducing the size and scope of any single (or multinational) state&rsquo;s dominion is decidedly healthy for liberty.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="229" height="160" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> European Union Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Bank Las Vegas Ludwig von Mises Mises Institute Nationalism Reserve Currency World Trade Fri, 24 Jun 2016 23:20:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 564535 at Tony Robbins Asks Everyone To "Storm Across A Bed Of Hot Coals" - Dozens Get Injured <p>Tony Robbins, the motivational speaker and author held an &quot;Unleash the Power Within&quot; seminar Thursday night in Dallas, and as a routine part of the seminar there was a fire walking event whereby participants walk over hot coals to practice mind over matter. It appears, however, that some attendees weren&#39;t quite focused enough that evening.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Good morning Dallas,Texas! Welcome to Unleash the Power Within!<br />Tweet me your UPW stories &amp; why you&#39;re attending - using <a href="">#UPWDallas2016</a></p> <p>&mdash; Tony Robbins (@TonyRobbins) <a href="">June 23, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>Dozens of people who attempted the feat were injured reports the <a href="">Dallas Morning News</a>, and <strong>Dallas Fire-Rescue paramedics were called to the Kay Bailey Hutchison just after 11pm where 30 to 40 people were seen onsite</strong>. The severity of the injuries was unknown, but most people elected not to be taken to the hospital said Fire-Rescue spokesman Jason Evans.</p> <p>Pujan Patel from Dallas said thousands of people walked across the coals without a problem, and the people that burned their feet should have done a better job mentally preparing - &quot;<strong>It was very easy, but there&#39;s always going to be 1 percent of people that are idiots</strong>&quot;</p> <p>Ah, the old &quot;the beatings will continue until morale improves&quot; point of view.</p> <p>Zoe Tentoglou flew to Dallas from Sunnyvale, California to attend her first Robbins event and said that participants were told to repeat the phrase &quot;cool mas&quot; to themselves as they walked across the coals. &quot;The crew walked us through every step. They were very cautious. They told us not to look at the coals as we walked across, to visualize walking across the coals, and then afterwards they sprayed our feet with water.&quot;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">I&#39;m a fire walker! <a href="">#UPWDallas2016</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Daniel Jens (@danieljens) <a href="">June 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">All is possible in a beautiful state ???? ?????? <a href="">#firewalker</a> <a href="">#UPWDallas2016</a> <a href="">@TonyRobbins</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Regina Felice (@reginafelice) <a href="">June 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Participants say firewalk is about facing fears &amp; anyone who was injured wasn&#39;t in right mental state <a href="">#UPWDallas2016</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Shannon Murray (@ShannonMFox4) <a href="">June 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Watch: Dozens burned during <a href="">@TonyRobbins</a> &#39;firewalk&#39; at <a href="">#UPWDallas2016</a> <a href=""></a> <a href="">@NBCDFW</a> <a href="">#NBCDFWNow</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Ben Russell (@BenRussellNBC5) <a href="">June 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>* * *</p> <p>Robbins&#39;s website <a href="">says:</a> &quot;<strong>Overcome the unconscious fears that are holding you back. <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Storm across a bed of hot coals</span></strong>&quot;</p> <p><em><strong>We can&#39;t help but liken this to central planning.</strong></em> Just as Tony Robbins asked people to walk across hot coals, and as a result people got burned, central planners are asking everyone to trust the process of monetary policies - and the world is getting burned. Sometimes, things such as overcoming fears by walking over hot coals and central planning entire global economies are best left in theory instead of practice.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="436" height="267" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Fri, 24 Jun 2016 22:55:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 564537 at Brexit & The Fourth Turning <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Jim Quinn via The Burning Platform blog,</em></a></p> <p>I took a long walk on the boardwalk with my wife and mother last night, after a long day of packing, doctor appointments, travel, unpacking, food shopping and buying enough liquor to get me through the next week.<strong> I was confident the oligarchs had the Brexit vote rigged in their favor. I went to bed exhausted at 10:00.</strong></p> <p><u><strong>I wake up this morning to global pandemonium.</strong></u> I just wanted to ride my bike on the boardwalk in peace, but Noooo. First it was raining, so I have to wait for the showers to end. Then I flip on the radio and hear about stock markets around the world crashing <strong>because the British people grew some balls and told their keepers to fuck off.</strong></p> <p><u><strong>My first thought upon hearing the news was &ldquo;Fourth Turning&rdquo;.</strong></u> It&rsquo;s all about the mood of the people in these countries. The establishment is constantly baffled during Fourth Turnings because they think their old methods of propaganda, fear and control will continue to work. They <strong>don&rsquo;t realize the cyclical nature of history</strong> and how the current generational configuration will lead to earth shattering change and a complete destruction of the existing social order. <strong>Brexit is just another brick in the wall.</strong></p> <p>I also find it interesting that over the last month or so some of the most renowned investing billionaires in the world have announced their bearishness and had placed large bets on such an outcome. George Soros is the perfect example. He switched his position to shorting the market recently. Then he constantly blathered in the press about what a disaster Brexit would be for global markets. Then the captured legacy media convinced the world Brexit would never happen. When it &ldquo;shockingly&rdquo; happened last night, stock markets around the world crashed. Soros and his billionaire cronies made hundreds of millions in profits. Meanwhile, the poor schmuck with his 401k gets clobbered again.</p> <p>Since I was 100% wrong in my prediction regarding Brexit, you can take my following observations with a grain of salt. But this is what I see:</p> <ul> <li><strong>This further cements the coming showdown between the people and the establishment (politicians, bankers, mainstream media).</strong></li> <li><strong>The EU is dead.</strong> France, Italy and other EU countries will push for the same referendum and the people will vote out.</li> <li><strong>The insolvent banks across Europe were never fixed. </strong>The central bankers just extended, pretended, and printed more debt. Bank failures will trigger further economic strife.</li> <li><strong>The credibility of central bankers around the globe will completely disintegrate </strong>as their one trick pony method of easy money has proven to be an immense failure for the people.</li> <li>With the disintegration of the EU, the <strong>possibility of civil chaos and war with Russia goes up dramatically.</strong></li> <li>It will be interesting to see if the Fed and their Wall Street banker puppeteers can stop the stock market from dropping by its destined 30% to 50%. The overvaluation is drastic and this could be the Lehman moment, or at least the Bear Stearns moment.</li> <li><strong>The credibility of the corporate mainstream media has further disintegrated </strong>as they again have been revealed as nothing but propaganda mouthpieces for the establishment. Their anti-Brexit poll numbers were fake. They are not journalists, but cheerleaders for their corporate sponsors.</li> <li>The constant media bashing of Trump and cheerleading for Clinton will be disregarded by the silent majority in the U.S. Their polls and opinions can be completely ignored and dismissed. The people of this country who don&rsquo;t live in NYC, DC, LA, or SF are pissed off. Their mood is dark. They want change. The only person who will give them change is Trump.</li> <li><strong>I&rsquo;m more convinced than ever that Trump will win the presidency in November. This is a Fourth Turning. The status quo never wins during a Fourth Turning.</strong></li> </ul> <p><strong>Fourth Turnings never peter out. </strong>They intensify to a crescendo of turmoil, chaos, violence, war, and bloodshed. This Fourth Turning intensification just got turned up dramatically. <strong>It will eventually be turned up to 11</strong>.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="164" height="153" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bank Failures Bear Stearns fixed France George Soros Italy Lehman Fri, 24 Jun 2016 22:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 564532 at The US Government Will Spend $1.25 Million To Develop A Propaganda Cartoon For Pakistan <p>As the US government <a href="">cuts into people&#39;s social security payments </a>in order to reduce costs, it is not lost on everyone that the US is simultaneously jacking up expenses for things such as <a href="">massive warships</a> that cost taxpayers $4.4 billion, and <a href="">extending the war in Afghanistan</a> which will cost another <a href="">$10 billion</a>.</p> <p>However, it&#39;s not only the massive defense spending projects that the government does that bleeds US taxpayers dry, it&#39;s little one&#39;s as well. As the Washington Free Beacon <a href="">reports</a>, <strong>the State Department plans on spending $1.25 million in order to produce two 13-episode seasons of a superhero cartoon. Oh, and the cartoon will be &quot;fully immersed in Pakistani culture&quot; and will air on public television in Pakistan.</strong></p> <p>Why would the US government spend hard earned taxpayer dollars on a cartoon to be aired in Pakistan rational minds may wonder - why to engage in propaganda of course. The State Department&#39;s International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) division issued a grant solicitation for two seasons of an animated series in order to &quot;promote security and stability&quot; in Pakistan. To make a long story short, with the intended target audience being ages 14-25, the US is engaging in propaganda in order to try and deter teenagers in Pakistan from joining terrorist organizations.</p> <p>More from the<a href=""> Free Beacon</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>The show will attempt to present &ldquo;positive messages&rdquo; on the topics of gender equality, anti-corruption, and the &ldquo;role of police in civil society.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Other topics covered in the superhero cartoon include: <span style="text-decoration: underline;">&ldquo;The promotion of non-violence in conflicts,&rdquo; &ldquo;women&rsquo;s empowerment,&rdquo; &ldquo;the importance of living a healthy, drug-free lifestyle,&rdquo; and &ldquo;inter-faith peace and religious tolerance.&rdquo;</span></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>The State Department said the mission of the International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs is to &ldquo;minimize the impact of international crime and illegal drugs on the United States, its citizens, and partner nations by providing effective foreign assistance and fostering global cooperation.&rdquo;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><em>The agency hopes the superhero cartoon will appeal to teenagers in Pakistan and persuade them to not join terrorist organizations.</em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p>The State Department went to to say that &quot;If youth are exposed to a character that models socially positive behaviors and values, then they are more likely to adopt those values and behaviors, making it less likely that they accept or promote extreme ideological views. Therefore,<strong> special emphasis needs to be placed on informing, educating, and positively influencing Pakistani youth, as they will shape the future of the country.</strong>&quot;</p> <p>The State Department would make Joseph Goebbels very proud.</p> <p>To the Free Beacon&#39;s point, the US government claims the &quot;<strong>most effective response to terror and to hatred is compassion, it&#39;s unity, and it&#39;s love.</strong>&quot;</p> <p><iframe frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>* * *</p> <p>Compassion, unity, and love... and if that doesn&#39;t work then the US will just <a href="">use its military to topple the government</a>. Either that, or the US will just <a href="">export enough arms</a> to those who will do the dirty work on its behalf.</p> <p><a href=""><img height="320" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="585" height="276" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Afghanistan Fri, 24 Jun 2016 22:05:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 564531 at Has Trump Found The Formula? <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via,</em></a></p> <p>Stripped of its excesses, Donald Trump&rsquo;s Wednesday speech contains<strong> all the ingredients of a campaign that can defeat Hillary Clinton this fall.</strong></p> <p>Indeed, after the speech ended Clinton was suddenly defending the Clinton Foundation against the charge that it is a front for a racket for her family&rsquo;s enrichment.</p> <p>The specific charges in Trump&rsquo;s indictment of Clinton: <strong>She is mendacious, corrupt, incompetent and a hypocrite.</strong></p> <p><strong>&ldquo;Hillary Clinton &hellip; is a world-class liar,&rdquo; </strong>said Trump. She faked a story about being under fire at a Bosnia airport, the kind of claim for which TV anchors get fired. She has lied repeatedly about her email server.</p> <p>She lied to the families of victims of the Benghazi massacre by implying the atrocity was a spontaneous reaction to an anti-Islamic video, not the premeditated act of Islamist terror she knew it to be.</p> <p><strong>Drop &ldquo;world-class&rdquo; and Trump&rsquo;s case is open and shut.</strong></p> <p>His second charge:<em><strong> &ldquo;Hillary has perfected the politics of personal profit and theft&rdquo; and &ldquo;may be the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> <p>Particulars?</p> <p>Bill Clinton got $750,000 for a speech from a telecom company facing State Department sanctions for providing technology to Iran. The Clintons got the cash; the telecom company got no sanctions.</p> <p>&ldquo;Hillary Clinton&rsquo;s State Department approved the transfer of 20 percent of America&rsquo;s uranium holdings to Russia, while 9 investors in the deal funneled $145 million to the Clinton Foundation.&rdquo;</p> <p>Trump added, &ldquo;She ran the State Department like her own personal hedge fund &mdash; doing favors for oppressive regimes &hellip; for cash.&rdquo;</p> <p>Together, she and Bill have raked in $153 million since 2001 in speaking fees from &ldquo;lobbyists, CEOs and foreign governments.&rdquo;</p> <p><strong>These figures are almost beyond belief.</strong></p> <p>Sherman Adams had to resign as Ike&rsquo;s chief of staff for accepting a vicuna coat from Bernard Goldfine, who had problems with federal regulators.</p> <p>When ex-President Reagan, after brain surgery, visited Japan to receive that nation&rsquo;s highest honor, The Grand Cordon of the Supreme Order of the Chrysanthemum, and got a $2 million fee from the media company that hosted his nine-day visit, our liberal editorial pages vomited out their revulsion and disgust.</p> <p><u><em><strong>Where are those media watchdogs today?</strong></em></u></p> <p>Rather than condemning the Clintons&rsquo; greed, their conflicts of interest and their egregious exploitation of their offices, the media are covering for Hillary and digging for dirt on Trump.</p> <p>To substantiate his charge of incompetence, Trump notes that Clinton as Senator voted for arguably the greatest strategic blunder in U.S. history, the invasion of Iraq.</p> <p>She pushed the attack that ousted Col. Gadhafi and unleashed terrorists who took over much of Libya and murdered our ambassador.</p> <p>She played a leading role in launching the insurrection against Bashar Assad that has left hundreds of thousands dead, uprooted half of Syria and sent millions of refugees to seek asylum in Europe.</p> <p>Primary beneficiary: ISIS, with its capital in Raqqa.</p> <p><u><strong>And the hypocrisy charge?</strong></u></p> <p>Though Hillary and Bill Clinton profess to be the fighting champions of women&rsquo;s equality and gay rights, they have banked millions in speaking feels and tens of millions in contributions to the Clinton Foundation from Islamic regimes under whose rule women are treated as chattel and homosexuals are flogged, beheaded and stoned to death.</p> <p><em><strong>Why do major media let them get away with such hypocrisy?</strong></em></p> <p>Because, ideologically, politically, socially, morally and culturally, the major media are with them.</p> <p>While making the case for the indictment of Hillary Clinton, Trump also outlined an agenda with appeal not only to nationalists, populists and conservatives but working-class and minority Democrats.</p> <p>If Trump is elected, an economic system &ldquo;rigged&rdquo; to enable big corporations to leave and take factories and jobs abroad, and bring their goods back free of charge to kill companies that stay in America, will end.</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;Globalism&rdquo; will be replaced by &ldquo;Americanism.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>Trade and tax policies will be rewritten to provide incentives for companies to bring jobs and factories here. Was this not also Bernie Sanders&rsquo; message? He stood against NAFTA in the 1990s when the Clintons colluded with Bush Republicans to impose it.</p> <p>In his peroration, Trump spoke of what we Americans had done, how we had lost our way, but how we could, together, make her great again. His finale was surprisingly aspirational, hopeful, inclusive.</p> <p><strong>In the political year just ended, several unmistakable messages have been delivered.</strong></p> <p>First, the record turnout for Trump and remarkable turnout for Ted Cruz represented a repudiation of Beltway Republicanism.</p> <p>Second, the amazing success of 74-year-old Socialist Bernie Sanders in keeping Clinton embattled until California, showed that the Democratic young have had enough of Clintonism.</p> <p>A majority of the nation said loud and clear: We want change.</p> <p>Hillary Clinton&rsquo;s vulnerability is that Americans distrust her; no one believes she represents change; and she has no agenda and no vision.</p> <p>Her campaign for president is all about her.</p> <p>As Trump noted, even her slogan is, &ldquo;I&rsquo;m with her.&rdquo;</p> <p><strong>Rough and raw as it was in parts, Donald Trump&rsquo;s speech on Wednesday contains the elements of a campaign that can win.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="223" height="146" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Iran Iraq Japan Uranium Fri, 24 Jun 2016 21:40:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 564530 at A few thoughts on Gold, currency and “risk free savings” in the wake of Brexit <p>By Josh Crumb co-founder of Goldmoney</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>A few thoughts on Gold, currency and “risk free savings” in the wake of Brexit</strong></p> <p><span style="font-size: 13.008px; line-height: 1.538em;">Today is one of those days that I almost wish I had taken the blue pill.</span></p> <p>As the co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer of the world’s only gold-backed financial service institution, I’ve received a lot of questions and comments today about the violent movements in gold and currency markets. The starting assumption is that I must somehow be happy for this, and to be celebrating that “we were right”. This assumption could not be further from the truth.</p> <p>Gold did not make anyone rich today, the currencies built on debt and false promises, unproven and illogical economic theories, THIS money absolutely made people poorer today.</p> <p>Today the gold savings accounts of our clients were spared over 9 figures in collective devaluation (no, gold is not rising, currency is failing par excellence). I’m not celebrating because this debasement of global currencies hurts the poor and vulnerable most, it is the core of their savings, it measures their contractual wage, and it’s their costs of food, energy, medicine, housing, and education that moved a little farther out of reach today.</p> <p>This talk of “no inflation risks”, and “post scarcity economics” of robots and “free living wages” is peak hubris from the elites, an insult to the majority of the world’s aspiring middle class that works for their prosperity, and have been realizing at least 5% compounding inflation in EVERYTHING it means to be middle class (except their wage of course). Frankly it makes me disgusted. And today the failed promises of central planners is being manifested across the UK and Europe, as it has been the past few years for most of the worlds emerging market currencies (Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Venezuela, Nigeria, they are becoming too many and too frequent to name).</p> <p>The Elites that caused this mess in the first place will be bailed out with “emergency liquidity measures”?—?ie printing money and devaluing the cash of many, the poor, to float asset prices of the few. This is how it has always worked, when money is unbacked “fiat” and only valued by decree (is it backed? no. Is it scarce because savers receive an interest rate? no. Do banks have to work for this interest-free savings? no.). Emergency liquidity is not magic, it does not come from magic people, its snake oil and always ends the same way.</p> <p>Do you hear this version of the story anywhere in mainstream “news”? FT, where are you at? WSJ, where are you at? Economist, where you at? The view I present today is backed up in math, history, logic, physics, and philosophy. No, what you hear is that ignorant voters caused this (first they rig markets and tell you free markets and capitalism is failing, now they have a problem with democracy too?). You hear that gold, a stable money by the decree of natural law and physics, is rising irrationally out of fear. They call it a speculative commodity, with no value except that its shiny and liked by the uneducated. Oh really? So when I measure everything that is bound by the scarcity of time, toil and energy (food, energy, housing, education, health care), why is gold perfectly correlated with these things? When I price these things 30 years ago in gold, measured in gold, they are the same price today. Gold does not make people rich, debt makes them poor.</p> <p>So no, our clients are not richer today because a speculative asset is in a 10,000 year bubble and went up; those that only put faith in unbacked currencies are just poorer. We built this businesses because we believed we were right about the logical end points, the case study that is EVERY instance in history, but no, it doesn’t make us happy. There is too much good happening in the world, our currencies are more volatile than the amazing economy they were designed to serve. Free markets and democracy and the invisible hand is the reason for our prosperity and social progress, not the cause of today’s panic.</p> <p>Gold ascended as natural money due to the binding laws of nature: scarcity, randomness, decay, entropy. These laws make it work as money even if forgotten or obfuscated by the elites. In other words, there was no decree that made gold money, and no decree that stopped gold from being money. Our elites are so lost (or obfuscating), that they actually believe that the value of money is subjective, or valuable only because of their ivory tower decrees. They increasingly believe the wisdom of crowds is just ignorance and a random walk of bias and immorality. Don’t listen to their words, look at their actions, they don’t want free markets, they don’t want democracy. They want control. But their control is not aligned with laws of nature. Uncertainty rules, entropy rules, and this must be embraced or any unnatural system will fail.</p> <p>The invisible hand has always been energy. Money is energy, everything is energy. Gold is simply its physical equivalence, the only immortal index of time, energy, labour and information you can hold. Measure your wage, measure your value, store your value appropriately. Today its easier than ever with technology.</p> <p>If the past 8 hours aren’t a reminder, look to the past 8 years. If the past 8 years not a reminder, look at the past 8 decades…centuries…millennia.</p> <p>If you agree, support our mission. It’s not always fun, but it’s time to take the red pill, too much good happening, to much value to be destroyed by this prevailing financial hubris and ignorance. Today proves that ignorance is not bliss.</p> <p>Sincerely,</p> <p>Josh &amp; Roy</p> Brazil Fail Random Walk The Red Pill Fri, 24 Jun 2016 21:39:33 +0000 Gold Money 564542 at We Like Valeant Pharmaceuticals for a Trade (Video) <p>By <a href=""><span style="color: #f24024;">EconMatters</span></a> </p> <p><em><br /></em> </p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="400" height="266" border="0" /></a></div> <p> Considering it costs $2.5 to $5 Billion from the initial Research phase to bringing a new drug to market, the $32 Billion in VRX Debt given their other assets, and proven drug portfolio makes this stock look cheap here on a valuation basis. </p> <p> I bet I could find a buyer willing to pay $50 a share for Valeant Pharmaceuticals over the weekend if Bill Ackman wasn`t in such a hole on this stock, and needs a much higher price given&nbsp;the average stock price on his accumulated share stake. </p> <p> Given that there is going to be further consolidation in this space, and the high costs associated with organically generating new drugs for the marketplace with no guarantees of success - VRX looks like an attractive take-out candidate to me. Their debt is actually in line with many utilities trading at much higher valuations with much lower revenue generation capabilities from both an overall &nbsp;margins and gross profit standpoint.</p> <p></p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe src="" width="320" height="266" frameborder="0"></iframe></div> <p></p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="640" height="362" border="0" /></a></div> <p> © <a href="" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f24024;">EconMatters</span></a> All Rights Reserved | <a href="" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f24024;">Facebook</span></a> | <a href="!/EconMatters" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f24024;">Twitter</span></a> | <a href="" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f24024;">YouTube</span></a> | <a href="" target="_blank"><span style="color: #f24024;">Email Digest</span></a> | <a href=";node=80"><span style="color: #f24024;">Kindle</span></a><strong>&nbsp;</strong><em>&nbsp;</em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: line-through;">&nbsp;</span></p> Twitter Twitter Fri, 24 Jun 2016 21:27:58 +0000 EconMatters 564541 at What the leave vote means for gold going forward <p>By Stefan Wieler of</p> <p><span style="font-size: 13.008px; line-height: 1.538em;">The full article with active links to previous reports can be accessed here in PDF: <a href="" title=""></a></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>What the leave vote means for gold going forward</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Against the latest polls before the referendum, and seemingly against the expectations of the City and financial markets in general, nearly 52% of the UK voters voted to leave the European Union. This has come as a massive shock to the markets, with the GBP down 8.4% at the time of writing (over 10% at some point overnight), and equity and commodity markets crashing. Gold began to rally immediately after the first results revealed that the share of leave voters have been hugely underestimated and has rallied to USD1324/ozt, a 13.6% % gain against the GBP.</p> <p>While only time will tell what the eventual economic implications will be, one thing is already for sure: The reality of BREXIT is shaking financial markets at the core. Asian and European equity markets closed with huge losses, commodity prices tumbled and currency markets are in disarray. We haven’t seen market moves like this since the credit crisis.</p> <p>However, as we have written before, this is not 2008 – at least not for gold. In early 2008, gold dropped from a high of $1003/ozt on March 14, 2008 to a low of $712/ozt on November 12, 2008 while the S&amp;P500 lost over 30%. This time the situation couldn't be more different in our view. Rather, the three core drivers of the gold price are today firmly in gold's favor, and the price outlook is skewed to the upside.</p> <p>In this report we outline what the result of the vote means for gold prices going forward, using our proprietary gold price framework we have introduced last year (see Gold Price Framework Vol. 1: Price Model, October 8, 2015).</p> <p>In our model we have identified three main drivers for the price of gold: Real-interest rates, central bank policy and longer-dated energy prices. In our view BREXIT will have an impact on all 3 drivers in a positive way, adding support to gold prices going forward.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Central Bank policy and real-interest rates</strong></p> <p>As a reaction to the result, central banks will likely adopt much more dovish policies. The enormous volatility caused by the vote shows that markets have been in a very fragile state all along. This means that the likelihood that the FED will be able to raise rates in July has vanished in our view and the outlook for further hikes in 2016 and 2017 is now at risk. We have long argued that the FED will have a hard time raising rates to their desired target of 3.25% at the end of the cycle (which still is well below historical norm). Depending on the severity of the market reaction to the outcome of the vote over the coming weeks, it could well be that the FED will not be able to raise rates any further. Real-interest rates already began to price this in, dropping to the lowest levels since 2013 and at the brink to falling into negative territory again. As a result, gold prices shot up sharply (see Figure 1).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Figure 1: USD Real-interest rates collapsed as a result of the vote, pushing gold sharply higher</p> <p><em>Gold USD/ozt (LHS), 10-year TIPS yield, %, inverted (RHS)</em></p> <p><img src="" alt="Oil spec positions" title="oil specs" width="600" height="414" /></p> <p><em>Source: Bloomberg, Goldmoney Research</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But real-interest rates are unlikely to stop here. Before the recovery from -0.9% in 2012 back to +0.8% by the end of 2015, real-interest rates had been in a steady downward trend for 30 years. Even if the FED had succeeded raising rates again to 3.25% while maintaining inflation at 2%, realized real-interest rates would have only reached 1.25% at the peak. Any monetary policy reaction to a renewed economic recession would have inevitably pushed rates into negative territory again and to new lows. With the outcome of the referendum however, it has become very unlikely in our view that the FED can raise rates anytime soon, meaning that interest rates will be much lower at the beginning of the next economic downturn. There is now a distinct chance that they will not be higher than they are right now at 0.375%. This means that real-interest rates will most likely make new lows during the next down-cycle. It also means that the biggest risk to the gold price, a meaningful increase in the FED funds rate, is much less likely. Hence the referendum has set a floor on the price in our view.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Longer-dated energy prices</strong></p> <p>The immediate impact of the vote was that energy prices sold off hard. But it was mainly spot prices that go hit while longer dated prices haven’t meaningfully sold off. The reason is that speculative positions in WTI and Brent were close to all-time highs before the vote (see Figure 2). These positions tend to be in the front of the curve and have pushed time-spreads well beyond what is currently warranted by inventories (see Something’s got to give in the oil market, May 3, 2016). The leave vote caused massive sell-off in risky assets, and naturally oil was hit too with front end prices down 6% overnight.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Figure 2: As speculative positions in oil where near all-time highs, front-end prices sold off sharply with the general market sell-off after the vote</p> <p><em>Million barrels, WTI (LHS), Brent (RHS)</em></p> <p><img src="" alt="oil specs 2" title="oil specs 2" width="600" height="434" /></p> <p><em>Source: Bloomberg, Goldmoney Research</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The risk to energy prices is that in the aftermath of the vote, global economic growth slows down, which would push the clean-up of the oil market further back in time. We currently expect that global inventories peak in late summer and then decline relatively quickly. A delay in the normalization of stocks would put a lot of downward pressure on front end prices as the curve is currently already pricing in that inventories are normalized. Importantly, the back-end of the curve (which drives gold prices) would not be affected by such a price move in the front. However, if central banks revert to more drastic measures (like NIRP in the US or more QE) and this is seen by the market as creating inflation in real assets, we expect longer dated prices to actually rise.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The unknown variables</strong></p> <p>Measureable changes in real interest rates, central bank policy and longer-dated energy prices can explain most of the changes in the gold price in the past. However, we can also think of new drivers that impact the gold price going forward, something we haven’t experienced yet. One risk is that the leave vote is the starting shot of something much bigger. The panicking reaction of the financial markets is a clear signal that the monetary foundations stand on extremely shaky ground. Nowhere is this more visible than in the European banks.</p> <p>As our colleague Alasdair McLeod writes in his recent report (see Brexit is getting the blame, June 16, 2016):</p> <p><em>“Caught in the middle of these imbalances are the private sector banks. Because of the scale of these problems, it is no longer a patch-and-mend issue, but a serious systemic problem. The European banking system has been struggling for survival ever since the Lehman crisis, reflected in the dismal performance of share prices for nearly all the major banks.”</em></p> <p>And further:</p> <p><em>”The other evidence of banking woes is the flight of investment capital into government bonds from cash and deposits held within the banking system, so much so that Germany’s 10-year bond now carries a negative redemption yield. The flight into tangible bonds is so pronounced, that €400bn of investment grade corporate bonds are also on negative redemption yields. Market commentators are blaming this on fear of Brexit, but one look at the financial condition of the European banks tells us a different story. The banks must be struggling with deposit contraction on their balance sheets, fuelled by a combination of negative interest rates and systemic fears, at a time when their loan books are burdened with bad and irrecoverable debts. It looks like the modern equivalent of an old-fashioned run on the banking system, led by the pension and insurance companies, which are becoming increasingly concerned about leaving balances with the banks.”</em></p> <p>A loss in confidence in the monetary system could have a far bigger impact on gold prices than changes in real-interest rates and longer dated energy prices alone.</p> Bond Central Banks Credit Crisis Equity Markets European Union Insurance Companies Investment Grade Lehman Monetary Policy Real Interest Rates Reality Recession recovery Volatility Fri, 24 Jun 2016 21:21:12 +0000 Gold Money 564540 at Google Searches For "Buy Gold" Soar 500% After Brexit <p>Three days ago, when Wall Street was virtually certain that the Brexit vote would comfortably go in favor of the Remain camp, the best tell about the true sentiment on the ground had nothing to with polls, or manipulated bookies' odds, and much more to do with our report that worried British savers <a href="">are scrambling to buy gold bars </a>and "stuffing them in safes at home, data suggests, as fears mount that a Brexit-induced financial meltdown could be just around the corner." </p> <p>To all those who did convert their soon to be far less valuable pounds sterling into physical gold, and in the process avoided a record devaluation in just one day, congratulations. </p> <p>However, it turns out that many more did not. And as gold soared overnight, having its best day in years while cable was tanking, suddenly everyone else also had the epiphany that the only true money that preserves its value regardless of the stupidity of politicians or idiocy of central bankers, is gold. </p> <p>As the <a href="">Telegraph reports</a>, by 11am London time, BullionVault users had traded £23.5m of vaulted gold and silver since midnight - more than two weeks’ worth of average trading in 2015. And, showing the scramble by the public to buy gold, new account openings by 11am were already twice this year’s daily average.</p> <p>But it was about to get much worse, or perhaps, batter. </p> <p>According to Google, <strong>the number of internet searches for the phrase "buy gold" spiked by 500% after the Brexit results trickled through around 5am. </strong>Investors flocked to the safe haven asset during Asian trading while the pound plummeted to a 31-year low. </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">+500% spike in searches for "buy gold" in the past four hours<a href=""></a></p> <p>— GoogleTrends (@GoogleTrends) <a href="">June 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Note: "<strong>after.</strong>"</p> <p>Today, as is customary <strong>after </strong>the fact, everyone was euphoric on gold: "gold could rise to $1,400 whilst other precious metals such as platinum, offer attractive fundamentals," said James Butterfill, head of research &amp; investment strategy at ETF Securities. Virtually every other investment bank followed suit and even Goldman came out, when the traditionally <em>goldophobic</em> bank had no choice but to raise its gold price target following today's meteoric gold surge. </p> <p>Which is great, however all of it was, as noted,&nbsp; <strong>after </strong>the fact. </p> <p>The truth as all those who buy gold <strong>after </strong>the devaluation learn, is that for gold to be a store of value and preserve purchasing power it has to be acquired <strong>before </strong>some catastrophic, devaluing event, which as yesterday's Brexit showed, tends to be utterly unpredictable.</p> <p>The good news, of course, is that as the vast majority of the population still expresses little to no interest in the one asset that protects against loss of purchasing power and unlike stocks, is not merely a bunch of 1s and 0s in some server in some warehouse in the middle of nowhere and whose chain of ownership is constantly exposed to counterparty risk, physical gold is and always will be "right there." A fact which continues to amaze how few actually understand. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="951" height="87" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Google Meltdown Precious Metals Purchasing Power Fri, 24 Jun 2016 21:16:45 +0000 Tyler Durden 564539 at Brexistential Bloodbath - Dow Crashes 600 Points As Vol Explodes <p>Overheard in Britain today...</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="360" src="" width="480"></iframe></p> <p>Well they did it... and no one expected it...</p> <ul> <li>UK Stocks -3.14% worst since Jan 2016</li> <li>US Stocks -3% worst since Aug 2015 <strong>(biggest opening gap down since 1987)</strong></li> <li><strong>VIX +6pts biggest daly rise since Aug 2015 crash</strong></li> <li>Japan Stocks -7.9% worst since 2011 (Tsunami)</li> <li><strong>Spain Stocks -12.5% worst since 1987</strong></li> <li><strong>Italy Stocks -12% worst since 1997</strong></li> <li>EU Banks -14.5% worst <u><strong>ever</strong></u></li> <li><strong>US Banks -4.75% worst since Nov 2011</strong></li> <li>US 30Y Yield -14bps biggest drop since 2011</li> <li><strong>US 2Y Yield -14bps biggest drop since 2009</strong></li> <li>German 10Y Yield -14bps biggest drop since 2011</li> <li><strong>GBPUSD -11% biggest drop <u>ever</u></strong></li> <li>USDJPY -4% biggest drop since 1998</li> <li>EURUSD -2% biggest drop since Oct 2015</li> <li><strong>Gold +5% biggest day since Lehman 2008</strong></li> <li><strong>Crude -4.4% most since Jan 2016</strong></li> </ul> <p>But apart from that everything is awesome.</p> <p>What it looked like when Brexit news hit gold and currencies (<em>h/t @NanexLLC</em>)</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 652px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The broad EU banking system bore the brunt of it...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 289px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>and peripheral Europe was a bloodbath...</p> <p><a href=""><img height="313" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As Cable saw its biggest intraday swing ever...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 274px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Across asset classes, here is how the day went...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 395px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>On the day, the early dead cat bounce died...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*DOW AVERAGE PLUNGES 610 POINTS AT 4 P.M., MOST SINCE AUGUST</strong></li> <li><strong>*NASDAQ COMPOSITE TUMBLES 4.1% IN BIGGEST ROUT SINCE 2011</strong></li> </ul> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 380px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Dow dropped 850 from pre-Brexit highs...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 326px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Today&#39;s S&amp;P drop was just shy of the collapse on Aug 24th last year...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 277px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Financials were a yuuge loser, catching down to the yield curve... worse drop that Aug crash and broke all major technical support...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 315px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Since the Jo Cox death lows, stocks are now red...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 346px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>All major US equity indices are now red year-to-date...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 292px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>Since The Fed raised rates, Gold is up 23%, Bonds up 12%, and Dow down 1.7%...</strong></u></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>VIX exploded (but we note that XIV - inverse VIX ETF - dropped almost 30%, the biggest move ever and 7 standard deviation shift)</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 346px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It was one of the Top 5 moves in VIX ever:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">And the Final Print as of 4:15pm puts today as the 5th largest move in history. <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Stalingrad &amp; Poorski (@Stalingrad_Poor) <a href="">June 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>With S&amp;P losing 2,100 as VIX topped 24...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 331px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>On the day, VIX surged after the cash close, dragging futures even lower...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 369px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>So next we turn to FX markets...</strong></u></p> <p>Cable fell to 31year lows... <strong>Today&#39;s drop was a 16 standard deviation crash</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 632px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The USDollar Index rose 1.3% on the week (best in 4 months), driven by major spike today, but the GBP and JPY moves were colossal...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 319px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And on the day - GBP and JPY were the big movers...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 313px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Treasury yields dropped drastically today, puking before the US open but bounced higher to leave 30Y yields unch on the week...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 312px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Commodities flipped overnight with crude ending the week the biggest loser and PMs best...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 309px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>On the day, gold unusually outperformed silver...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 313px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Gold and Silver soared...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 681px;" /></a></p> <p><u><em><strong>AND JUST REMEMBER - CHINA WAS CLOSED BEFORE THIS BLOODBATH STARTED...</strong></em></u></p> <p><a href=""><u><em><strong><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 302px;" /></strong></em></u></a></p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <p><strong>Bonus Clip: Risk just went to 11...</strong></p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="600" height="120" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> China Crude Lehman NASDAQ NASDAQ Composite Twitter Twitter Yield Curve Fri, 24 Jun 2016 21:02:33 +0000 Tyler Durden 564534 at