en Debate Post-Mortem: Rematch Required As Commentators Split On Debate Winner, Markets Give Hillary Nod <p>From &quot;big, fat, ugly bubbles&quot; to &quot;trumped-up trickle-down&quot; economics, tonight&#39;s debate had something for everyone. One-liners and soundbites were dropped like confetti with strange facial gestures, delicate coughs, and direct jabs flying left, right, and center. <em>As far as the results go, it&#39;s anyone&#39;s guess: Lester Holt was soundly beaten by everyone online; the markets (S&amp;P Futs and the Mexican Peso) both suggested a Trump loss, Trump won Twitter, online (and unscientific) polls were undecided with a slight nod to a Trump victory, as commentators were mixed, most siding with their ideological bias</em>.</p> <p>As Bloomberg reports, after a little more than 90 minutes of debate (<a href=";tid=ss_tw">full transcript here</a>), here are the key takeaways from tonight&#39;s event:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The candidates spent a good deal of time on stop-and-frisk, racial issues, Obama birther matter, ISIS and nuclear weapons.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Trump appeared to be rambling on a number of questions, especially on foreign policy.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Clinton made points on the tax returns, with Trump not ending questions about whether he failed to pay any federal income taxes -- an not offering a clear reason as to why he&#39;s not releasing his tax returns.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Clinton&#39;s answers often were recitations of her campaign statements.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>It was difficult for Holt, </strong>as moderator, to keep the candidates focused on the questions. At times, it appeared he&#39;d lost control of the debate.</p> </blockquote> <p>Behind their glazed eyes...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 547px; height: 376px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2><u>Some Key Excerpts</u></h2> <p>Clash of the Titans...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">.<a href="">@HillaryClinton</a> and <a href="">@realDonaldTrump</a> arrive, shaking hands with one another: <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; CBS News (@CBSNews) <a href="">September 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Then Hillary struck...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">.<a href="">@HillaryClinton</a>: &quot;Trumped up trickle-down&quot; is not the way to grow the economy <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; CBS News (@CBSNews) <a href="">September 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Quickly followed by Trump...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Trump to Clinton: &quot;You are going to regulate these businesses out of existence.&quot; <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; CBS News (@CBSNews) <a href="">September 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>And...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">&quot;Typical politician: all talk, no action. Sounds good, doesn&#39;t work.&quot; <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; CBS News (@CBSNews) <a href="">September 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Trump on &#39;birtherism&#39;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;I got him to give the birth certificate,&quot; he said about President Barack Obama.</p> </blockquote> <p>Trump on his temperament</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;I think my strongest asset by far is my temperament. I have a winning temperament,&quot; Trump said.</p> </blockquote> <p>Trump on taxes</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;That makes me smart,&quot; Trump said in response to Clinton saying he might not pay federal income taxes.</p> </blockquote> <p>Clinton on her emails</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;I made a mistake using private email,&quot; Clinton said.<br />&quot;That&#39;s for sure,&quot; Trump added.</p> </blockquote> <p>How rich?</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Maybe he&#39;s not as rich as he says he is ... There is something he&#39;s hiding ... Who does he owe money to?&quot; Clinton speculating on why Trump hasn&#39;t released his tax returns.</p> </blockquote> <h2><u>Trump Won The Drinking Game:</u></h2> <h2><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 366px;" /></a></h2> <h2>&nbsp;</h2> <h2><u>Trump Won Twitter</u>:</h2> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">What were the top <a href="">#debatenight</a> moments on Twitter? <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) <a href="">September 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Per Twitter: Trump spoke for 62% of the debate, while Clinton spoke for 38%. <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Meet the Press (@MeetThePress) <a href="">September 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <h2><u>Polls Were Mixed:</u></h2> <p><strong>Drudge - as expected - big trump win, suggesting whoever was for Trump before, remained with Trump:</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><strong><img alt="" src="" style="width: 601px; height: 258px;" /></strong></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong> - Trump win.</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 286px;" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong> - Hillary win.</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 601px; height: 292px;" /></a></p> <p><strong> - Small Trump win.</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 599px; height: 277px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The <a href="">Hill</a>: Trump slightly ahead:</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 328px;" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2><strong>On the other hand, <u>judging by the market&#39;s response, Trump lost</u>:</strong></h2> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 320px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Judging by the surge in futures and the Mexican peso, markets judged the first of three U.S. presidential debates a win for Hillary Clinton: U.S. stock index futures reversed losses, while Mexico&rsquo;s peso rebounding from a record low and haven assets including the yen and gold fell.&nbsp; S&amp;P 500 futs gained 0.4 percent as shares in Asia pared losses. Mexico&rsquo;s peso rose as much as 1.5 percent, although rolled over toward the end of the debate.</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <h2><u>She Said...</u></h2> <ul> <li>*CLINTON SAYS KEY ELECTION QUESTION IS WHAT FUTURE FOR U.S.</li> <li>*CLINTON SAYS NEED TO BUILD AN ECONOMY FOR `EVERYONE&#39;</li> <li>*CLINTON SAYS NEED TO INVEST IN INFRASTRUCTURE, RENEWABLES</li> <li><strong>*CLINTON CALLS FOR RAISING MINIMUM WAGE, MORE PROFIT SHARING</strong></li> <li>*CLINTON SAYS WEALTHY NEED TO `PAY THEIR FAIR SHARE&#39;</li> <li><strong>*CLINTON: TRUMP&#39;S TAX PLAN IS TRUMPED UP TRICKLE-DOWN ECONOMICS</strong></li> <li><strong>*CLINTON SAYS TRUMP `ROOTED FOR THE HOUSING CRISIS&#39;</strong></li> <li>*CLINTON, TRUMP SPAR ON ECONOMIC RECORD OF BILL CLINTON&#39;S YEARS</li> <li><strong>*CLINTON: `DONALD, I KNOW YOU LIVE IN YOUR OWN REALITY&#39;</strong></li> <li>*TRUMP: YOU HAVE NO PLAN; CLINTON: I WROTE A BOOK ABOUT IT</li> <li>*CLINTON: I HAVE A FEELING I&#39;LL BE BLAMED FOR EVERYTHING</li> <li><strong>*CLINTON ON PRIVATE EMAILS: I MADE A MISTAKE; TRUMP AGREES</strong></li> <li>*CLINTON SAYS SHE&#39;S MET PEOPLE `STIFFED&#39; BY TRUMP&#39;S BUSINESSES</li> <li>*CLINTON: RACE REMAINS `SIGNIFICANT&#39; CHALLENGE IN U.S.</li> <li><strong>*CLINTON: TRUMP PAINTS `DIRE, NEGATIVE&#39; PICTURE OF BLACK AMERICA</strong></li> <li>*CLINTON SAYS WANTS TO END PRIVATE PRISONS IN STATE SYSTEMS TOO</li> <li>*CLINTON SAYS TRUMP INVITING RUSSIA TO HACK WAS `UNACCEPTABLE&#39;</li> <li>*CLINTON SAYS TRUMP BACKED IRAQ WAR AND LIBYA INTERVENTION</li> <li><strong>*CLINTON SAYS TRUMP HAS `CAVALIER ATTITUDE&#39; ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS</strong></li> <li><strong>*CLINTON SAYS U.S. CAMPAIGN HAS CAUSED WORRY FOR WORLD LEADERS</strong></li> </ul> <h2><u>He Said...</u></h2> <ul> <li>*TRUMP SAYS U.S. JOBS `FLEEING THE COUNTRY&#39; INCL. TO MEXICO</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP: THEY&#39;RE USING OUR COUNTRY AS PIGGY BANK TO REBUILD CHINA</strong></li> <li>*TRUMP: WE HAVE TO STOP OUR JOBS FROM BEING STOLEN FROM US</li> <li>*TRUMP CITES FORD, CARRIER SAYING NEED TO KEEP COS. IN U.S.</li> <li>*TRUMP CALLS CLINTON BY SECRETARY TITLE, ASKS IF THAT&#39;S OK</li> <li>*TRUMP INTERJECTS ON CLINTON ATTACK: `THAT&#39;S CALLED BUSINESS&#39;</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP SAYS U.S. ENERGY POLICIES ARE A `DISASTER&#39;</strong></li> <li>*CLINTON, TRUMP SPAR ON ECONOMIC RECORD OF BILL CLINTON&#39;S YEARS</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP SAYS NAFTA IS THE WORST TRADE DEAL SIGNED ANYWHERE</strong></li> <li>*TRUMP SAYS CLINTON FLIPPED ON TPP AFTER HIS CRITICISMS</li> <li>*TRUMP: YOU HAVE NO PLAN; CLINTON: I WROTE A BOOK ABOUT IT</li> <li>*TRUMP SAYS WE HAVE NO LEADERSHIP, THAT STARTS WITH CLINTON</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP SAYS CLINTON A `TYPICAL POLITICIAN,&#39; THAT SHE&#39;S ALL TALK</strong></li> <li>*TRUMP SAYS THE FED IS NOT DOING THEIR JOBS, BEING POLITICAL</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP ON E-MAILS: THAT WAS NOT A MISTAKE, DONE PURPOSEFULLY</strong></li> <li>*TRUMP ON RACIAL DIVIDE, SAYS NEED TO HAVE `LAW AND ORDER&#39;</li> <li>*TRUMP: TEND TO AGREE W/ BLOCKING GUNS FOR THOSE ON NO-FLY-LIST</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP: BLACK COMMUNITY HAS BEEN `LET DOWN&#39; BY POLITICIANS</strong></li> <li>*TRUMP SAYS HE GOT OBAMA TO PROVIDE HIS BIRTH CERTIFICATE</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP SAYS CLINTON ALLIES PEDDLED OBAMA BIRTHPLACE QUESTIONS</strong></li> <li><strong>*TRUMP SAYS DOESN&#39;T KNOW IF RUSSIA HACKED DNC, COULD BE OTHERS</strong></li> <li>*TRUMP: ISLAMIC STATE COULDN&#39;T HAVE FORMED IF WE&#39;D TAKEN THE OIL</li> <li>*TRUMP SAYS IDEA HE SUPPORTED IRAQ WAR IS MEDIA NONSENSE</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP SAYS HE HAS MUCH BETTER TEMPERAMENT THAN CLINTON DOES</strong></li> <li>*TRUMP: NUCLEAR WEAPONS ARE NUMBER ONE THREAT NOT CLIMATE CHANGE</li> <li>*TRUMP ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS: I WOULD CERTAINLY NOT DO FIRST STRIKE</li> <li><strong>*TRUMP: CLINTON DOESN&#39;T HAVE THE LOOK, DOESN&#39;T HAVE THE STAMINA</strong></li> <li><strong>*TRUMP: `HILLARY HAS EXPERIENCE, BUT IT&#39;S BAD EXPERIENCE&#39;</strong></li> </ul> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>The bottom line.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">This was pretty conventional. Trump voters r still 4 him. Hill still for Hill. Undecideds still undecided. And many want better candidates.</p> <p>&mdash; Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) <a href="">September 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">A quick thought on who &quot;won&quot; the debate, and why that&#39;s a fundamentally useless question <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Michael Tracey (@mtracey) <a href="">September 27, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>So, as Obama would say after his first unfortunate debate in 2012, on to the rematch.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="547" height="376" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Twitter Twitter Tue, 27 Sep 2016 09:21:26 +0000 Tyler Durden 573337 at Dangerous Bubbles In Plain Sight <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,</em></a></p> <p>Jesse Felder published an<strong> incisive bubble finance&nbsp;chart over the weekend. </strong>It is yet&nbsp;another reminder that Janet Yellen and her merry band of money printers are&nbsp;oblivious to&nbsp;the dangerous speculation and valuation excesses&nbsp;that their policies have implanted throughout the financial system.</p> <p><strong>Relative to disposable income, the value of household financial assets now far exceeds the last two bubble peaks. </strong>And that has happened in an economic environment which suggests just the opposite. To wit, valuation&nbsp;multiples and cap rates&nbsp;should be falling owing the fact that the&nbsp;productivity and growth capacity of the US economy has been heading south ever since the turn of the century.</p> <p><img src="" style="height: 317px; width: 600px;" /></p> <p><strong>What is even more striking about this chart is what&rsquo;s hidden&nbsp;behind the denominator. </strong>Since the eve of the financial crisis in 2007, a rapidly increasing share of DPI (disposable&nbsp;personal&nbsp;income) has been accounted for by the explosive growth of transfer payments.</p> <p>Needless to say,<strong> transfer payments do not represent newly produced income that can be capitalized into the value of aggregate societal wealth.</strong> By definition, transfer payments are extracted via taxation from the incomes of current producers&mdash;&ndash;or via taxation of future incomes if they are&nbsp;funded with increased government debt.</p> <p>Either way, the true extent of the bubble excess in Felder&rsquo;s chart is even more extreme than pictured above. Between 2007 and 2016, in fact, the value of household financial assets soared from <strong>$53 trillion to $72 trillion</strong> at a time when real personal income excluding transfer payments rose by only <em><strong>1.2%</strong></em> annually.</p> <p><strong>And that&rsquo;s crediting the BLS&rsquo; deeply understated inflation indices. In the real world of Flyover America, inflation-adjusted earned income hardly grew at all.</strong></p> <p><a class="image-anchor" href=""><img alt="social-benefits-as-pct-dpi-092516" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-17151" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 470px;" /></a></p> <p>So here&rsquo;s a newsflash for the clueless school marm who presides over the Wall Street casino. There is no such&nbsp;thing as a <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>timeless &ldquo;historical norm&rdquo;</strong></em></span> when its comes to the&nbsp;valuation of financial assets.&nbsp;The appropriate capitalization rate for a current stream of income or cash flows depends upon&nbsp;the expected growth path into the distant future.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;I would not say that asset valuations are out of line with historical norms.&rdquo; </strong></em>&mdash; Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen 9/21/2016</p> </blockquote> <p>Yet by the Fed&rsquo;s own reckoning, the expected growth rate of the US economy has been marked down time and again in its economic&nbsp;forecasts. The&nbsp;long-run median&nbsp;real GDP growth rate is now&nbsp;pegged at just 1.9%.</p> <p><strong>So&nbsp;you might think someone on the fed would connect the dots. For the last six years running, they have drastically over-estimated the growth of real GDP even as the stock indices have soared based largely on multiple expansion.</strong></p> <p>Thus, after estimating <strong>3.7%</strong>&nbsp;growth in 2011&nbsp;and nearly <strong>4.0%</strong> growth in 2012, actual expansion came in at <em><strong>1.7%</strong></em> and <em><strong>1.8%</strong></em>,&nbsp;respectively.&nbsp;Yet that wasn&rsquo;t some kind of temporary aberration. During 2013 and 2014, the shortfall between initial estimates and actual was also nearly 50%; and then, even as the Fed lowered its estimates for 2015 and 2016, the actual rate of growth slowed&nbsp;still more.</p> <p>In the case of anyone paying attention, of course,&nbsp;the tepid and weakening recovery conveyed in the table below helps explain why S&amp;P 500 profits peaked six quarters ago in the September 2014 LTM period at $106 per share. Since they&nbsp;came in <strong><em>19% lower at $87 per share</em> </strong>in the June 2016 LTM, the actual market multiple at <em><strong>24.7X</strong> </em>is anything but normal, and that&rsquo;s hardly a temporary condition, either.</p> <p>As was indicated in a nearby post, <strong>the Wall Street hockey stick is&nbsp;bending toward the flat-line yet again. The most recent&nbsp;earnings outlook for Q3 has turned negative on a Y/Y basis&mdash;just in time for the next earnings season, and also precisely as needed for another round of Wall Street&rsquo;s phony earnings &ldquo;beat&rdquo; game.</strong></p> <p>In short, in the context of&nbsp;declining earnings, PE&nbsp;multiples are not even&nbsp;in line with historic norms. Contrary to Yellen&rsquo;s press conference blather, they&nbsp;are at the very top of the charts.</p> <p><strong>Worse still,&nbsp;the Fed&nbsp;continues to project that interest rates will &ldquo;normalize&rdquo; back to 3% on the federal funds rate and 4.2% on the 10-year treasury note. And in point of fact, sooner or later that must happen or the entire monetary system will be destroyed.</strong></p> <p><em>So with a future outlook characterized by slowing growth, weakened earnings&nbsp;and rising interest rates, how in the world can it be said that current valuations are nothing to worry about?</em></p> <p><a class="image-anchor" href=""><img alt="fomc-economic-forecasts-092116" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-17084" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 512px;" /></a></p> <p>At the same time, even the Fed&rsquo;s new dissenter, the formerly dovish, Eric Rosengren, remains lost in the Fed&rsquo;s Keynesian puzzle palace. Rosengren voted to raise interest rates because he apparently thinks the US is nearing full employment, and that it may overshoot by 2019, thereby creating inflationary risks:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>By 2019, I expect the unemployment rate to have declined below 4.5 percent. While I have a long track record of advocating for policy that supports robust labor market conditions, that is below the rate that I believe is sustainable in the long run.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Well, that&rsquo;s some kind of &ldquo;full-employment&rdquo;. There are 5 million more prime working age persons in the US today than there were in January 2000, but the number with &ldquo;jobs&rdquo;, including part-time gigs a few hours per weak and self-employed e-Bay traders, is nearly 1.0 million lower!</strong></p> <p><img class="alignnone" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 323px;" /></p> <p><u><strong>As for inflation, here is another newsflash. It&rsquo;s already here.</strong></u></p> <p><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 404px;" /></p> <p><strong>So here&rsquo;s the danger. </strong>The denizens of the Eccles Building see no bubbles in a financial system that is rampant with&nbsp;asset inflation. It sees full-employment when the US economy has more labor slack than any time&nbsp;in modern history.&nbsp;<strong>And it keeps the Wall Street gamblers in free carry trade funding because&nbsp;it wants even more inflation </strong>than what is already ravaging the real incomes of Flyover America.</p> <p><u><strong>No wonder the Trump voters want to throw the bums out.&nbsp;It is none too soon.</strong></u></p> <p><a class="image-anchor" href=""><img alt="Capture2-480x287" class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-120545" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 359px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="586" height="306" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> BLS Carry Trade Federal Reserve Janet Yellen Market Conditions None Personal Income recovery Unemployment Tue, 27 Sep 2016 09:00:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 573345 at FBI Crime Report Reveals Massive Surge In Murder Rates In Several Large U.S. Cities <p>Earlier this year the Brennan Center for Justice released a report analyzing violent crime data in America's 30 largest cities for the calendar year of 2015.&nbsp; While the report noted modest increases in violent crime in Baltimore, Chicago and Washington D.C., it concluded that, on the whole, reports of a national crime wave were premature and unfounded, and that <strong>“the average person in a large urban area is safer walking on the street today than he or she would have been at almost any time in the past 30 years.</strong>”</p> <p>Now, just a few short months later, the folks at the Brennan Center have updated their <a href="">study </a>with crime statistics through September 2016 and they're wishing they could have a "do over" on that previous conclusion after finding that the<strong> national murder rate is now projected to increase 31.5% from 2014 to 2016.</strong>&nbsp; Oops.</p> <p>Moreover, while spikes in violent crime were limited to just a few large cities in 2015, so far in 2016 <strong>11 out of 22 of the largest cities in the country</strong>, for which the Brennan center was able to collect data, <strong>reported a YoY increase of over 20% in murder rates</strong>.&nbsp; To be fair, cities like San Jose reported a large percentage increase off a very low base but a 71% increase is still significant.</p> <p>Finally, while we often write about murder rates in Chicago, due to the shear number of deadly crimes, <strong>when reviewed on a per capita basis the crime rate even in Chicago pales in comparison to Detroit and Baltimore.</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" alt="FBI Crime Data" width="600" height="639" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Moreover, the spike in violent crime over the past two years has seemingly <strong>reversed an over 2-decade long trend in declining murder rates per capita</strong> for the U.S., overall.&nbsp; </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" alt="FBI Crime Data" width="600" height="336" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Can anyone spot the outlier in the following chart accounting for the majority in incremental murders in 2016?</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" alt="FBI Crime Data" width="600" height="400" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course the real question is why the sudden spike in violent crime is occurring now.&nbsp; The <strong>study attempts to explain the sudden spike with all of the usual excuses including sustained poverty, unemployment, declining police forces etc</strong>.&nbsp; That said, the chart below seemingly debunks many of those theories as several cities have experienced a substantial increase in murders without a corresponding increase in the overall crime rate.&nbsp; </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" alt="FBI Crime Data" width="600" height="465" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The "why now" question is something we recently addressed in another post entitled "<a href="">Milwaukee Homicides Soar - What Is Going On In the Murderous Midwest?</a>".&nbsp; While the typical explanations for violent crime (e.g. poverty, unemployment, etc.) may explain why crime is higher in certain cities it certainly doesn't explain why the sudden spike is occurring now. Thomas Abt of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government thinks the sudden spike is more likely due to the <strong>"Ferguson Effect"</strong> or a concept he refers to as<strong> "legal cynicism."&nbsp;</strong> </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The key question is <strong>why the spike in violence now?&nbsp;</strong> Ask any "expert" to explain the cause of violent crime and you'll get a range of responses from systemic problems of poverty, unemployment, lack of education of inner city youth, breakdown of the family unit, etc.&nbsp; <strong>The problem is that none of those things explain the sudden changes in violence we're currently witnessing in the Midwest.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Thomas Abt, senior research fellow with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, believes the<strong> issue is more likely what other political commentators have dubbed "the Ferguson Effect."&nbsp; </strong>Writing for The Marshall Project, Abt discussed what he thought might be causing the sudden spike in violent crimes in the Midwest:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="padding-left: 30px;">It is unclear what is driving the problem, <strong>but my own hunch</strong> – and it is still just a hunch at this point – <strong>involves a criminological phenomenon called legal cynicism</strong>. Multiple studies have demonstrated that, controlling for other factors, <strong>when communities view the police and criminal justice system as illegitimate, they become more violent</strong>. <strong>When people believe the system is unwilling or unable to help them, they are more likely to take the law into their own hands, creating the cycles of violent retribution</strong> that were chronicled so vividly last year in Jill Leovy’s Ghettoside.</p> </blockquote> <p>Certainly, one has to look no further than the recent mainstream media coverage of the protests in Charlotte to find examples of the police being delegitimized.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><iframe src=";view_mode=scroll&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="534" height="401" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Detroit ETC FBI None Unemployment Washington D.C. Tue, 27 Sep 2016 08:15:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 573318 at 'Angry' Davids Vs. 'Complacent' Goliaths: Social Revolution Looms <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Adam Taggart via,</em></a></p> <div class="content clearfix"> <p>Largely out of the headlines, the ongoing protest on Standing Rock is <strong>shining a bright light on how the big-moneyed interests with political clout steamroll the disadvantaged in order to get what they need.</strong></p> <p>But in a rare David-vs-Goliath standoff, the Sioux tribespeople of Standing Rock Reservation are <strong>learning that they are not powerless.</strong> Their refusal to roll over and allow an oil pipleline to be built on their lands is growing into one of the largest resistance movements in recent years, drawing supporters from all over the country, and <strong>forcing the discussion of &quot;Where do we draw the line?&quot; in regards to our pursuit of depleting natural resources.</strong></p> <p>Activist Mark&nbsp;Morey joins the podcast this week to provide context on this unfolding conflict:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>I think we are in an era of self-organizing emergent social revolutions.</strong> I do not know what to call them. Even the Bernie Sanders campaign had qualities that unexpectedly, hundreds, thousands, and tens of thousands, 50,000 people coming together for a candidate during a Democratic primary was just unheard of. Crashing all records.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This is another one of those in my mind. This particular one was started by teenagers and youth, believe it or not. When you do the research they stood up and they were the first ones to put their campsite down in that very location in Cannonball because they had this very deep and real sense of their future being threatened. I saw one of the teenagers, they went all the way to D.C. to speak with Bernie Sanders. Bill McKibben&nbsp;was there yesterday or the day before.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So there she is. She&#39;s 16 years old and she says, <em>I grew up on a reservation in the middle of this great place where my ancestors had been living here forever</em>.<strong> There&#39;s a kind of authority that comes from that lineage. </strong>They say clean water is our heritage and our right, and what we&#39;re standing for the way we do things. She starts to cry thinking the oil corporations don&#39;t care about her tribe&#39;s children. The pipeline was going to run north of Bismarck, North Dakota, up there in the watershed, but they deemed it too dangerous for those residents so they ran it down by the reservation.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>That&#39;s the pattern. Social justice and environmental damage are often correlated because they are at the margins and there&#39;s no media there.</strong> You can ship uranium to the Navajo or whatever. What&#39;s unusual is, standing up against literally the machine, the bulldozer, or standing up against the billion dollar oil energy companies. And these are the poorest people in our country. They are third-world poverty, 70% poverty people with their causes of death being things like alcoholism, and suicide, and diabetes -- the kinds of things we see as the leading cause of death from depression and oppression. <u><strong>To see them stand up I think ultimately it has this mythic quality to it. The ultimate weakest, smallest, poorest person with the greatest spirit and most righteous stance: that you cannot drink oil. Once this thing gets routed, the 16 million people living downstream will all be affected.</strong></u></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>It magnetized not just individuals to come help them, but all of the tribes in the U.S. sent representatives there. </strong>There are over 250 representative tribes there, which has never happened before in the history of the U.S. They&#39;re putting up flags -- there&#39;s this long corridor of nations, sovereign nations, native peoples&rsquo; flags. There&#39;s this incredible sense of an indigenous resurrection and power to the message they have for the modern world. Of course it&#39;s in the context of climate change, all the stuff that is coming out around the end of nature as we know it. Perhaps these people have something to offer us. Also, non-native people are going there and offering resources and help around the country. There is something like 7,000 people camping there now.&nbsp;</p> </blockquote> <p>Click the play button below to listen to Chris&#39; interview with Mark Morey (41m:55s).</p> </div> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="283" height="155" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bernie Sanders headlines Uranium Tue, 27 Sep 2016 07:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 573342 at Russian Foreign Ministry Responds To US Accusations: "The Real Barbarism Is What You Did In Libya and Iraq" <p>The war of words between the US and Russia escalated dramatically today, <a href="">when in response to an accusation by Samantha Power</a>, the US envoy to the UN, on Sunday that "<em>What Russia is sponsoring and doing [in Syria] is not counter-terrorism, it is barbarism</em>", the Russian foreign ministry - through an FB post by its spokesperson Maria Zakharova - responded that there is "nothing more barbaric in modern history" than what the US has done in Iraq and Libya. </p> <p>As <a href="">noted earlier</a>, Samantha Power delivered an emotional speech before the UN, accusing Russia and Syria of attacks on aid workers, civilian infrastructure and residential areas; she omitted that armed groups, including Al-Qaeda offshoot Al-Nusra Front which is now directly supported by the US coalition following its public "reverse merger" with the terrorist organization, are in control of large parts of Aleppo and are using its population as human shields.</p> <p>In any event, it was Russia's turn to respond to the accusations which it did today, when Power's use of the term 'barbarism' drew sarcastic remarks from Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova. </p> <p>“Historically speaking... a barbarian is someone not belonging to an empire, and we have only one of those today,” she noted on her Facebook page. <strong>“As for the imagery... the world has seen nothing more barbaric in modern history than Iraq and Libya done the Washington way.</strong>” </p> <p>As with Lavrov, Zakharova said that she believes Power's remarks were meant to draw attention from the American attack on Syrian troops near Deir ez-Zor, which happened amid the ceasefire and almost resulted in the Syrian Army's positions being overrun by ISIS troops which the US is supposedly seeking to eradicate. </p> <p>While the US blames Russia for the collapse of the ceasefire after Russia allegedly attacked a UN convoy last weekend, Moscow blames the US for the failed truce, saying it was incapable of reining in rebel groups who would not commit to it, and would not agree to designating them as legitimate targets for counter-attacks. </p> <p>As <a href="">RT notes</a>, Power, who received her current appointment in 2013, was among the most vocal supporters of the concept of “humanitarian interventionalism” – the use of military force on humanitarian grounds. The invasion of Saddam Hussein's Iraq and the toppling of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya are both examples of such actions. In both cases, interventions meant to prevent human suffering actually caused huge tragedies in the long run.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="656" height="396" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Iraq Tue, 27 Sep 2016 06:43:19 +0000 Tyler Durden 573322 at George Soros' False Flag Factories <p><em><a href="">Submitted by Wayne Madsen via,</a></em></p> <p>Global hedge fund tycoon and political provocateur George Soros is leading a war of symbols, namely flags and banners either resurrected or conjured up by his myriad non-profit groups,<strong> to stir religious, racial, and ethnic tensions the world over.</strong> From the Serbian OTPOR! movement and its clenched-fist symbol adopted by protests groups around the world to the menacing black and white flag of the Islamic State, which first appeared during the Soros-backed &laquo;Arab Spring&raquo; rebellions, Soros&rsquo;s &laquo;false flag&raquo; factories have been running at break-neck production speeds.</p> <p><strong>Soros and his acolytes saw the importance of symbology in the writings of Gene Sharp of the Albert Einstein Institution in Boston, Massachusetts. </strong>Although Sharp&rsquo;s catechism of how to conduct non-violent resistance and revolution has been likened by some political scientists to Mohandas Gandhi and Dr. Martin Luther King, his <strong>concepts on upsetting the political status quo appear to be borrowed more from the likes of Mao Zedong, Karl Marx, and Adolf Hitler.</strong></p> <p><strong>Among Sharp&rsquo;s necessary tools to conduct political action are &laquo;flags and symbolic colors&raquo;, &laquo;slogans, caricatures, and symbols&raquo;, and &laquo;banners, posters, and displayed communications&raquo;.</strong> The &laquo;symbolic colors&raquo; have been used by Soros- and Central Intelligence Agency-sponsored &laquo;color revolutions&raquo; in Ukraine (Orange) and Kyrgyzstan (Pink) and attempted color revolutions in Iran (Green), Kuwait (Blue), and Burma (Saffron).</p> <p>Using the Sharp template and financing from Soros and the CIA-linked National Endowment for Democracy (NED), Symbols were used in the themed Arab Spring revolutions in Tunisia (Jasmine) and Egypt (Lotus) and attempted revolutions in Georgia (Rose), Lebanon (Cedar), Uzbekistan (Cotton), and Moldova (Grape).</p> <p><strong>It is now more than obvious that Soros and his minions, known as &laquo;Sorosites&raquo; &ndash; a clever play on &laquo;parasites&raquo; &ndash; in the Balkans, contracted with flag factories to churn out banners of former regimes in the uprisings in Libya and Syria.</strong> In Libya, the rebels who rose up against Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 brandished factory-fresh, still-creased red-black-green horizontal tricolor with the white crescent and star used by the old Libyan monarchy, the regime that Qaddafi overthrew in 1969.</p> <p>Almost simultaneously, Syrian rebels opposed to President Bashar al-Assad hit the streets of major Syrian cities with<strong> factory-fresh green-white-black horizontal tricolors with three red stars used by Syria during the French League of Nations mandate and by the Republic of Syria in 1961</strong>. It was obvious that in both cases, the Soros- and NED-sponsored opposition groups in Libya and Syria foresaw a return to a pro-Western Libya as had existed under the feudalistic King Idris until his overthrow in 1969 and a Syria not unlike the pro-Western regime of Major-General Abd al-Karim Zahr as-Din, a Druze who ousted the pro-Gamal Abdel Nasser regime in Damascus in 1961. However, for Soros and the regime change advocates under U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, there would be disappointment.</p> <p>Instead of pro-Western regimes taking power in Libya and Syria, major swaths of territory fell to jihadist forces who mainly owed allegiance to the Islamic State but with a few swearing loyalty to Al Qaeda. Regardless of what jihadist entity they supported, these rebel groups received support from Saudi Arabia, the Turkish Islamist government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the Gulf emirates of Qatar, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, and Kuwait.</p> <p><strong>Instead of the flags of the former pro-Western proxy regimes appearing over buildings in Libya and Syria, factory-fresh black and white flags of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) flew from flagpoles, windows, and balconies</strong> from Benghazi and Sirte to Tripoli and Derna. In Syria, new ISIL flags were raised from Raqqa and Majib to Idlib and Palmyra. To the east, in Iraq, ISIL flags replaced those of the U.S.-installed Iraqi government and the Kurdistan Regional Government.</p> <p>One indication as to the source of the new ISIL flags was reported on October 7, 2014 by the Jewish Telegraph Agency from the northern Israeli town of Nazareth Illit. <u><em><strong>Gardeners in the factory area of the city discovered a bag that had fallen onto a street from a truck. Twenty-five new black and white ISIL flags were found inside the bag.</strong></em></u></p> <p><u><strong>A number of questions were raised by the discovery.</strong></u> Were the flags manufactured by a factory in the Jewish city? It is known that the Israeli military provided logistical and other support to jihadists fighting across the Golan Heights border in Syria. Were ISIL flags part of Israeli propaganda support to the jihadist rebels? Additionally, did Soros and the NED outsource the production of ISIL, as well as the flags of former Arab regimes, to the Israelis for distribution in Libya and Syria?</p> <p>Soros&rsquo;s connections to ISIL became very apparent during the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly when some human rights advocates, including some linked to Soros&rsquo;s nongovernmental organizations, called for the International Criminal Court (ICC) to prosecute the leadership of ISIL. The ICC, which is heavily influenced by Soros organizations, balked at the idea of prosecuting ISIL officials and operatives.</p> <p>The ICC claimed that since neither Syria nor Iraq were parties to the 1998 Rome Statute, which created the court, ISIL commanders and ground troops could not be hauled before the international tribunal to answer for their crimes against humanity in those countries. The ICC has had no problem prosecuting leaders and military officers from the Balkans and Africa, but ISIL was deemed off-limits.</p> <p>The ICC was also prepared to put members of the Qaddafi family on trial for alleged crimes in Libya, however, ISIL and its affiliates in Libya were of no interest to the court. <strong>The main reason for the ICC to look askance at ISIL is because in any trial of the group&rsquo;s leadership, the &laquo;false flag&raquo; antics of the Saudis, Israelis, Turks, Emiratis, the Soros organizations, and the Americans might have been laid bare for all the world to see.</strong></p> <p><strong><u>Soros&rsquo;s false flag antics are not merely confined to the Middle East. </u></strong>The eruption of violence among African-Americans in response to police violence targeting mainly African-American men saw new flags bearing the slogan &laquo;Black Lives Matter&raquo; being raised in cities and towns across the United States. It is well-known that Soros finances the Black Lives Matter group and the flags appeared to be yet another use of banners, slogans, and symbols in keeping with the template of Sharp and his themed revolution model.</p> <p><strong>While &laquo;Black Lives Matter&raquo; flags appeared throughout America, historical flags like the 13-star &laquo;Betsy Ross&raquo; flag from the American Revolution; the Gadsden Flag bearing the motto &laquo;Don&rsquo;t Tread on Me&raquo;, a slogan popularized by Benjamin Franklin; and any flag bearing any symbols from the Confederate States of America were denounced by Soros-funded pressure groups as &laquo;racist&raquo;.</strong> There were demands that these historical American flags be banned from cemeteries, parks, historical battlefield sites, and other locations. This was yet another &laquo;false flag&raquo; attack by Soros and those who actually wish to alter American history and impose a regime of extreme political correctness in violation of the free speech clause of the U.S. Constitution.</p> <p><strong>As a result of Sharp&rsquo;s roadmap to revolution, flags and symbols are potent weapons.</strong> Police in Spain have found ISIL flags in towns located in southern Spain, the location of the old Al Andalus Caliphate that the Islamic State has vowed to &laquo;liberate&raquo; from Christianity. Turkish flags are found in greater numbers in some German neighborhoods than German flags. Hispanic groups protesting Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump wave factory-fresh Mexican flags. <em><strong>The telltale signs of George Soros and CIA destabilization efforts can be found in the flags that appear in crowds of protesters. Vexillology intelligence (Vexint), or flag intelligence, should become a branch of every major intelligence agency around the world.</strong></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="266" height="155" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Abu Dhabi Donald Trump Dubai George Soros Iran Iraq Kuwait Middle East Saudi Arabia Ukraine Uzbekistan Tue, 27 Sep 2016 06:00:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 573341 at I Prefer Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton (Video) <p>By <a href=""><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">EconMatters</span></span></a> </p> <p><em><br /></em> </p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="400" height="240" border="0" /></a></div> <p> Donald Trump might just be outside the career politician mode enough to address some of the structural issues facing this country over the next four years that sadly Hillary Clinton will just continue perpetuating with the status quo. I expect out of control spending and&nbsp;continued fiscal mismanagement during&nbsp;Hillary Clinton`s Presidency. </p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe src="" width="320" height="266" frameborder="0"></iframe></div> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="640" height="298" border="0" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="640" height="298" border="0" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="640" height="298" border="0" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="640" height="298" border="0" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="640" height="298" border="0" /></a></div> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="" width="640" height="298" border="0" /></a></div> <p> © <a href="" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">EconMatters</span></span></a> All Rights Reserved | <a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Facebook</span></span></a> | <a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="!/EconMatters" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Twitter</span></span></a> | <a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">YouTube</span></span></a> | <a title="Open in new window" class="external" href="" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Email Digest</span></span></a> | <a title="Open in new window" class="external" href=";node=80" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Kindle</span></span></a><strong>&nbsp;</strong><em>&nbsp;</em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">&nbsp;</span><span style="text-decoration: line-through;">&nbsp;</span></p> Donald Trump Twitter Twitter Tue, 27 Sep 2016 04:20:38 +0000 EconMatters 573347 at "Foot-In-Mouth" Trump Vs. "Frog-In-Throat" Clinton: First Presidential Debate Begins - Live Feed <p><strong>The day has finally arrived. </strong>The two most disliked presidential candidates in the history of America face off mano a (wo)mano in a 90-minute, pee-break-barred grudge match of the politically-correct corrupt establishmentarian against the deplorable status-quo-wrecker. With the polls tied up, <strong>there&#39;s everything to play for as a record audience tunes in to see who will screw up first</strong>...</p> <p>Anything could happen...</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="">With race almost perfectly tied up in the polls, as we detailed earlier</a>, there is everything to play for, <a href="">and as The Hill details</a>, here are five things to watch for in the heavyweight clash that will set the course for the final 42 days of the election...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><u><strong>Will Trump bring up _______?</strong></u></p> <p>During the GOP primary debates, Trump veered from controversial and blustering to subdued and cordial. On the campaign trail, he&rsquo;s shifted away from free-wheeling stream-of-consciousness rallies to reading from prepared text, but sometimes the teleprompter is not enough to keep him on message.<strong> The Clinton camp is preparing for everything but is undoubtedly unnerved by the prospect of Trump conjuring one of the countless real and imagined conspiracies or controversies from Clinton&rsquo;s decades in public life.</strong> Trump could make Clinton&rsquo;s marriage an issue by bringing up Monica Lewinsky, Paula Jones, Juanita Broaddrick or Kathleen Willey, or he could bring up Clinton&rsquo;s health, just weeks after a passerby captured dramatic cellphone video of her appearing to pass out while leaving a 9/11 memorial in New York City. He could also veer into conspiracy. Trump during the GOP primary suggested rival <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople"><a class="rollover-people-link" data-nid="188230" href="">Ted Cruz</a></span>&rsquo;s father might have been involved in the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. The GOP nominee has huddled with controversial anti-Clinton author Ed Klein, whose work has been dismissed by the mainstream political class as unsubstantiated conspiracy-mongering. And he has surrounded himself with conservative media giants like former Fox News chief Roger Ailes and Breitbart chairman Steve Bannon, both known for gleefully trafficking in the most embarrassing aspects of Clinton&rsquo;s private life. <strong>It all has the potential to blow Clinton off course. Or it could backfire spectacularly on Trump and provide an election-defining moment of authenticity for Clinton. </strong>The Democrat will also have ample opportunities to get under Trump&rsquo;s skin. A New York Times report said <strong>Clinton wants to show him unhinged, which could signal she intends to dig at her rival over his business accomplishments, temperament, past controversies with women or ties to right-wing extremist elements.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>Body language</strong></u></p> <p>Every move, subconscious twitch and unplanned reaction will be captured in high definition, magnified before a Super Bowl-sized audience and endlessly dissected on cable news. <strong>Minor physical faux pas have sunk candidates in the past, from <span class="rollover-people" data-behavior="rolloverpeople"><a class="rollover-people-link" data-nid="188131" href="">Al Gore</a></span> sighing in 2000 to George H.W. Bush checking his watch in 1992</strong>. Trump has a flashy and over-the-top style punctuated by unique hand gesticulations and facial expressions. He is entertaining to watch and is a ratings juggernaut but is also in the position of having to prove to a skeptical public that he is commander in chief material &mdash; not just a showman. Clinton, meanwhile, is a cool and accomplished debater but can come across as dull or dispassionate. The Democratic nominee badly needs to energize a liberal base that has shown indifference to her. She&rsquo;ll be looking to avoid a performance that appears overly scripted or sterile under the bright lights.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>The moderator</strong></u></p> <p>Lester Holt, the modest and understated anchor of &quot;NBC Nightly News,&quot; need only ask his colleague Matt Lauer, the host of NBC&rsquo;s &quot;Today,&quot; how tricky moderating a presidential forum can be. Lauer has suffered immense blowback from critics who said he was unprepared and allowed Trump to walk all over him at a military forum earlier this month. Holt will face intense scrutiny for the questions he asks, how he frames those questions, and whether he fact-checks and challenges the candidates on their claims. <strong>In 2012, CNN anchor Candy Crowley came under fire for correcting Mitt Romney &mdash; wrongly, according to conservatives &mdash; at a key moment in a debate against President Obama over a question about Benghazi.</strong> There are myriad controversies and scandals involving both candidates that Holt could choose to raise. Partisans will be keeping tally. The campaigns and candidates are already busy working the ref. Trump this week said Holt is a Democrat and warned the anchor not to fact-check his assertions. <strong>The Clinton campaign is publicly fretting that Holt has such low expectations for Trump that the moderator will take it easy on the GOP nominee while holding Clinton to a higher standard.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>What voters do Trump and Clinton speak to?</strong></u></p> <p>Both candidates have work to do in shoring up their respective bases, but both also need to expand their appeal. <strong>Clinton has big leads over Trump among Hispanics, African-Americans and young voters</strong>. But none of these groups that formed the core of the Obama coalition are particularly enthused about turning out for her. She could lay it on thick with a message that energizes that liberal core, which could help her slam the door shut on Trump. But Clinton could also be looking to expand her appeal to Republicans who can&rsquo;t bring themselves to vote for Trump.<strong> That would mean casting herself as a centrist and a pragmatist, rather than a fierce advocate for the causes important to the left. </strong>Trump, meanwhile, badly needs to resonate with some constituency outside his core base of white men. His efforts to reach African-American voters have been mocked as condescending and trafficking in stereotypes. Many minority voters and young people aren&rsquo;t considering voting for Trump, but if he can improve even slightly on his dismal numbers there it could be meaningful for him in the long-run.<strong> A focus on minority outreach might also help alleviate the fears of white, college-educated voters who are steering clear of Trump because they don&rsquo;t want to be associated with a candidate who has been accused of racism and bigotry.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>The debate over black and blue</strong></u></p> <p><strong>A police shooting of a black man under disputed circumstances in North Carolina has the nation on edge.</strong> The fatal shooting of Keith Lamont Scott has sparked protests in Charlotte and once again put the spotlight on police practices in black communities. Potentially furthering the tension &mdash; Monday&rsquo;s&nbsp;debate is expected to attract upwards of 10,000 protesters and will take place on Long Island, which has a high concentration of cops, firefighters and first responders. Trump has broken recently from his hard-line pro-police stance, saying he was &ldquo;troubled&rdquo; by a different police shooting of a black man in Tulsa, Okla., which has led to charges of manslaughter against the officer. <strong>Tensions are running hot on both ends of the debate, and how the candidates handle the super-charged political minefield will be revealing.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><a href="">With some big money bets going down in the last few days on Trump&#39;s victory</a>...</p> <p><a href=""><img height="255" src="" width="500" /></a></p> <p>We suspect tonight&#39;s battle royale will do much to solidify the nation&#39;s choice.</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><u><strong>Live Feed</strong></u>:</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Perhaps more crucially for many watching tonight&#39;s debate, is the opportunity to drink (responsibly at first)</p> <p><u><strong>Beginner&#39;s Drinking Game...</strong></u></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 529px;" /></a></p> <p><em>h/t @chgirl</em></p> <p><u><strong>Professional&#39;s Drinking Game...</strong></u> (only attempt if you have attempted at least one debate drinking game)</p> <p>Simplified... Pick A Candidate, Listen for words; If any candidate says a Community word, everyone drinks...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 266px;" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><em>h/t</em></a></p> <p>And Keeping Score...</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>And for the non-drinkers... How about some Bingo:</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 606px; height: 609px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="446" height="238" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Fox News NBC New York City New York Times None President Obama ratings Tue, 27 Sep 2016 02:35:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 573321 at "America Is On Our Side": Al-Nusra Commander Tells German Press US Is Arming Jihadists <p>In a striking interview with German journalist Jürgen Todenhöfer <a href="">published today the German press including the prominent newspaper Focus</a>, a militant jihadist commander said that US weapons are being delivered to Jabhat Al-Nusra by governments that Washington supports, adding that American instructors were in Syria to teach how to use the new equipment.</p> <p>“Yes, the US supports the opposition [in Syria], but not directly. They support the countries that support us. But we are not yet satisfied with this support,” Jabhat al-Nusra unit commander Abu Al Ezz said in an <a href="">interview with Koelner Stadt-Anzeiger newspaper </a>from the city of Aleppo. According to the commander, the militants should be receiving more “sophisticated weapons” from their backers to succeed against the Syrian government. </p> <p> <iframe src="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>For those pressed for time, below is a summary of what the Al-Nusra commander said:</p> <ul> <li>They are directly supported by the US</li> <li>They received tanks and other heavy weaponry via Libya and Turkey</li> <li>They got officers and experts from the US, Israel, Turkey inside Aleppo</li> <li>The commanders of IS are led by Western intelligence</li> <li>They are against cease-fires and aid deliveries</li> <li>"The U.S. is on our side"</li> </ul> <p>In the full interview, the commander notes that “The fight is difficult. The regime is strong and gets support from Russia,” the jihadist explained. Al Ezz said that Jabhat Al-Nusra “won battles thanks to TOW rockets. Due to these rockets, we reached a balance with the regime. Our tanks came from Libya via Turkey, joined by the [BM-21] multiple rocket launchers,” he said.&nbsp; </p> <p>"We will fight until the regime is toppled," he said, referring to Assad's government. Al-Nusra Front wants "to establish an Islamic state that will be ruled according to the Sharia law. We do not recognize any secular state."</p> <p>The government forces have an advantage because of aircraft and missile launchers, but “we have the American-made TOW missiles, and the situation in some areas is under control,” Al Ezz added.</p> <p>But the most stunning admission came when asked if the TOW missiles were initially intended for Jabhat Al-Nusra or if the group obtained them from the moderate Free Syrian Army, the jihadist clarified: “<strong>No, the missiles were given to us directly.” </strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong>He also said that when Jabhat Al-Nusra was “besieged, we had officers from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel and America here… Experts in the use of satellites, rockets, reconnaissance and thermal security cameras.”</p> <p>Another dramatic admission: when Todenhöfer asked specifically if the US instructors were really present among the jihadists’ ranks and Al Ezz replied: “<strong>The Americans are on our side.”</strong> </p> <p>He also said that Jabhat Al-Nusra has been paid for achieving specific military goals during the Syrian conflict. <strong>“We got 500 million Syrian pounds (around $2.3 million) from Saudi Arabia. </strong>To capture the Infantry School in Al Muslimiya years ago we received 1.5 million Kuwaiti dinars (around $500,000) and Saudi Arabia's $5 million,” Al Ezz said.</p> <p>The money came from the “governments” of those states, not private individuals, he said. </p> <p>One of the governments cited as a source of funds - <em>Israel</em>. “Israel is now giving us support because Israel is at war with Syria and with Hezbollah,” Al Ezz said. The West also “paved the way” for jihadists coming to Syria, saying that “we have many fighters from Germany, France, Britain, America, from all the Western countries,” the commander said.</p> <p>In the interview, Al Ezz confirmed claims made by Moscow and the Syrian government that the militants had used the Syrian ceasefire, agreed by Russia and US on September 9, to prepare for a new offensive.</p> <p>“We do not recognize the ceasefire. We will regroup our groups. We will carry out the next overwhelming attack against the regime in a few days. We have regrouped our forces in all provinces, including Homs, Aleppo, Idlib and Hama,” Al Ezz said. </p> <p>He said that Jabhat Al-Nusa would not let trucks with humanitarian aid enter Aleppo “as long as the regime [forces] are along the Castello Road, in Al Malah and in the northern regions.” “The regime must withdraw from all the territories, and we will let the trucks in. If a truck is going in anyway, we will detain the driver,” he said. </p> <p>The idea of a transitional government in Syria is also not supported by Jabhat Al-Nusra, the commander said. “We accept no one from the Assad regime or of the Free Syrian Army, which is described as moderate. Our goal is to overthrow the regime, and establish an Islamic state in accordance with the Islamic Sharia,” he said.</p> <p>As for the people who represent the Syrian opposition at the Geneva talks, Al Ezz said that “these people are weak, they’ve got a lot of money. They’ve sold themselves.” </p> <p>“There are mercenaries in Syria, Alloush fights with Al Nusra-Front,” he said talking about Mohammed Alloush, a leader in the Jaysh al-Islam group, part of the Syrian opposition’s High Negotiations Committee (HNC) in the peace talks. “The group that was housed in Turkey and which was turned into the Free Syrian Army, used to be part of Al Nusra-Front.”</p> <p>Interestingly, the al-Nusra Front commander also mentioned the UN aid convoy. Keep in mind that Todenhöfer, the first Western journalist to be granted access to the caliphate, conducted the interview ten day ago, before the attack. The commander said that the militants would not allow UN trucks carrying aid to enter Aleppo if the Syrian Arab Army does not withdraw "as required." "The regime must withdraw from all areas in order for us to let the trucks in. If a truck drives in anyway, we will arrest the driver," he detailed. </p> <p>Finally, in case there is still any confusion, the commander openly confirmed that Jabhat Al-Nusra “are part of Al Qaeda."</p> <p>“Actually, we were inside one group together with the Islamic State. But the Islamic State has been used in accordance with the interests and political purposes of the big powers like America, and the group has drifted away from our principles. <strong>Most of the IS leaders are working with intelligence services, and it’s now clear for us</strong>. We, the Jabhat Al-Nusra, have our own way,” Al Ezz said.</p> <p>The interview with Jabhat al-Nusra’s commander was taken at a stone quarry in Aleppo on September 17 by Koelner Stadt-Anzeiger journalist Jurgen Todenhöfer on his seventh trip to war-torn Syria.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1237" height="688" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> France Germany Israel Newspaper Saudi Arabia Turkey Tue, 27 Sep 2016 02:13:26 +0000 Tyler Durden 573323 at P2P Meltdown Continues: LoanDepot's CDO Collapses Just 10 Months After Issuance <p>We first noted Wall Street's misguided plan to feed its securitization machine with peer-to-peer (P2P) loans back in May 2015 (see "<a href="">What Bubble? Wall Street To Turn P2P Loans Into CDOs</a>").&nbsp; Obviously we warned then that the voracious demand for P2P loans was a direct product of central bank policies that had sent investors searching far and wide for yield leaving them so desperate they were willing to gamble on the payment streams generated by loans made on peer-to-peer platforms.</p> <p>In addition to the pure lunacy of using unsecured, low/no-doc, micro-loans as collateral for a CDO, we pointed out that the very nature of P2P loans meant that borrower creditworthiness likely deteriorated as soon as loans were issued.&nbsp; The credit deterioration stemmed from the fact that many borrowers were simply using P2P loan proceeds to repay higher-interest credit card debt.&nbsp; That said, after paying off that credit card, <strong>many people simply proceeded to max it out again leaving them with twice the original amount of debt.<br /></strong></p> <p>And, sure enough, it only took about a year before the first signs started to emerge that the P2P lending bubble was bursting.&nbsp; The first such sign came in May 2016 when <strong>Lending Club's stock collapsed 25% in a single day after reporting that their write-off rates were trending at 7%-8% or roughly double the forecasted rate </strong>(we wrote about it here "<a href="">P2P Bubble Bursts? LendingClub Stock Plummets 25% After CEO Resigns On Internal Loan Review</a>").&nbsp; </p> <p>Now, signs are starting to emerge that Lending Club isn't the only P2P lender with deteriorating credit metrics.&nbsp; As <a href="">Bloomberg</a> points out, less than year after wall street launched the P2P CDO, one of the first such securities backed by loans from LoanDepot has already experienced such high default and delinquency rates that <strong>cash flow triggers have been tripped cutting off cash flow to the lowest-rating tranches.&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>The $140mm private security, called MPLT 2014-LD1, was issued by Jefferies in November 2015 and<strong>, less than 1 year after it's issuance, cumulative losses rose to 4.97% in September, breaching the 4.9% “trigger” for the structure.</strong>&nbsp; And sure enough, the deal was sold to a group of investors that included life insurance company, Catholic Order of Foresters.</p> <p>But, as Bloomberg noted, the LoanDepot deal wasn't the only one to breach covenants in less than a year.&nbsp; Two other Jefferies securitizations backed by loans made by the online startups CircleBack Lending and OnDeck Capital have also breached triggers.</p> <p>For some reason the following clip from the "Big Short" comes to mind...<strong>"short everything that guy has touched."</strong></p> <p><iframe src="" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="900" height="667" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> CDO Covenants Cumulative Losses default Meltdown Tue, 27 Sep 2016 01:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 573291 at