http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/component/option%2Ccom_docman/Itemid%2C200023/gid%2C397/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/Is-this-the-Breaking-of-the-Bear.html en Why Canada's Oil Industry May Never Be The Same http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/why-canadas-oil-industry-may-never-be-same <p><a href="http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Canadas-Oil-Industry-May-Never-Be-the-Same.html"><em>Submitted by David Yager via OilPrice.com,</em></a></p> <p><strong>Never is a long time. </strong>The dictionary definition is, &ldquo;at no time in the past or future; on no occasion; not ever.&rdquo; In the volatile oil and gas industry, those who try to look that far into the future and predict anything with certainty are invariably wrong. <em><strong>Here&rsquo;s hoping.</strong></em></p> <p>But it&rsquo;s not all bad, oil prices are gradually rising because of market physics and investor sentiment. Federal and provincial politicians are softening their opposition to, and have even publicly declared support for, pipelines to tidewater. <strong><em>The worst is over.</em></strong></p> <p><strong>However, it is increasingly certain that the future will not be like the past.</strong> Previous downturns have been equally devastating but the primary causes eventually reversed themselves; low commodity prices recovered and damaging government policies were rescinded.</p> <p><strong>This recovery will be different for a variety of reasons which will combine to cap growth, opportunity and profits, even if oil and gas prices spike.</strong> The following major changes appear permanent.</p> <p><u><strong>Oil Is Destroying the World</strong></u></p> <p><em>&ldquo;New research shows that the fossil-fuel era could be over in as little as 10 years, if governments commit to the right policy measures&hellip; If you think workers are suffering in Alberta now, wait until you see what Canada&rsquo;s economy looks like if we miss the huge opportunities for jobs and prosperity offered in renewable energy and a truly climate-friendly economy.&rdquo;</em></p> <p>Written by a climate and energy campaigner for the Sierra Club, this appeared on top of page 13 in the April 23 edition of Victoria&rsquo;s Times Columnist, under the headline, &ldquo;Pipelines not the pathway to Paris solutions.&rdquo; B.C.&rsquo;s views on pipelines are well known.</p> <p>Whether you or the tens of thousands of laid-off oil workers believe the first paragraph or not, on April 22 at the United Nations in New York, 171 countries signed the Paris climate change agreement negotiated last year. At the event, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said:<em> &quot;Paris will shape the lives of all future generations in a profound way - it is their future that is at stak</em>e.<em>&rdquo; He said the planet was experiencing record temperatures: &quot;We are in a race against time. I urge all countries to join the agreement at the national level. Today we are signing a new covenant for the future.&quot;</em></p> <p>Showing support, in the Globe and Mail April 26, the Minister of Foreign Affairs for the island country of Maldives wrote, &ldquo;Our ratification (of the Paris agreement) is based on the clear and present danger of losing our country completely to rising tides. How critical this has become can be seen in a report released only this month that questioned the stability of our polar ice sheets. We now know March, 2016 was the hottest month in recorded history.&rdquo;</p> <p><strong>This is all caused by burning carbon fuel. True or not, this debate will not die anytime soon.</strong></p> <p>The anti-carbon movement is already affecting the oil industry in ways nobody would have imagined two years ago. Alberta&rsquo;s comprehensive carbon tax regime will become law January 1, 2017 apparently to prove that the province deserves a social license to stay in the oil business from carbon fuel opponents. The recent Canada / U.S. commitment to reduce methane emissions will come at an enormous cost to the oilpatch if implementation is not preceded by a significant study and comprehensive cost / benefit analysis.</p> <p>These are just part of a growing trend to dismiss and / or deny the essential role hydrocarbon fuel plays in powering the world&rsquo;s economy. Oil doesn&rsquo;t matter any longer. University endowment funds have been pressured for years to divest shares in oil and gas companies. The Royal Bank of Scotland now refuses to provide funding for oilsands development. Historically, people sought jobs in the oilpatch and were proud of their work. This is changing fast.</p> <p><strong>Canada is one of the few major oil and gas-producing jurisdictions determined to push rapidly forward with major and expensive anti-carbon policy changes despite being only a nominal contributor to global emissions. </strong>We won&rsquo;t be followed anytime soon by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Iran, Iraq, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria and so on. They will be happy to supply Canada with oil, whether Canadian supplies continue or not.</p> <p><u><strong>&ldquo;Quantitative Easing&rdquo; No Longer Stimulating Economy</strong></u></p> <p>Following the 2008 / 2009 recession the world&rsquo;s central bankers embarked on a program of near-zero interest rates that would be expanded into something called &ldquo;quantitative easing.&rdquo; Investopedia&rsquo;s definition is, <em>&ldquo;<strong>Quantitative easing</strong> is an unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply.&rdquo;</em> This has now been expanded in some countries to include experimental negative interest rates where banks and, ultimately, savers are penalized for holding cash and not spending their money.</p> <p><strong>The purpose has been to juice spending to keep the western economic miracle alive while government debt balloons and the economy stagnates.</strong> If interest rates ever approached the double-digit levels of 30 years ago, the economic devastation would be staggering. Prime lending and mortgage rates peaked at 22.5 percent in the early 1980s, long before it was believed (then accepted) governments could print money without collapsing the economy or creating runaway inflation.</p> <p><strong>But it isn&rsquo;t working anymore. Past recessions were caused by high oil prices and cured when they fell. Not this time.</strong> An <a href="http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/A-Lasting-Solution-To-Low-Oil-Prices.html">article at Oilprice.com</a> on April 19 by Gail Tverberg read, <em>&ldquo;&hellip;consumers are the foundation of the economy. If their wages are not rising rapidly, and their buying power (considering both debt and wages) is not rising very much, they are not going to be buying many new houses and cars &ndash; the big products that require oil consumption. In fact, in order to bring oil demand back up to a level that commands a price over $100 per barrel, we need consumers who can afford to buy a growing quantity of goods made with oil products.&rdquo;</em></p> <p><strong>Oops. This time oil prices collapsed and so did demand. </strong>The International Energy Agency is forecasting, despite low prices, demand growth of only 1.2 million barrels (b/d) per day this year compared to 1.6 million b/d or higher in 2015 and prior years. Middle class incomes, the main driver of growing oil consumption in the past, are no longer rising in the western world. Quantitative easing has run its course. What growth in oil demand may occur will be in Asia and other foreign markets. Should governments reverse policies on near-zero or sub-zero interest rates or people lose confidence in the long-term stability of central banks printing money as required, oil consumption and prices are doomed.</p> <p><u><strong>The U.S. Shale Boom Was Financed By Low Interest Rates</strong></u></p> <p>The hunt for yield in the era of lower to zero interest rates leads to peculiar investment decisions. In 2008 the collapse of the housing bubble &ndash; driven by an endless investor appetite for high-yield mortgage bonds of questionable quality &ndash; was said to cause the global recession. This precipitated the collapse of major financial institutions like Lehman Brothers and the bailout of many more. Regulators frowned and tried to bring in policies to ensure it would not happen again.</p> <p><strong>The great light tight oil (LTO) or shale boom in the U.S. since 2010 has all the hallmarks of a similar asset bubble.</strong> Exploration and production (E&amp;P) companies were able to finance significant drilling through the sale of subordinated bonds with an attractive yield of 6 percent or more. They were for the most part interest-only and due in several years. The problem with drilling high decline LTO wells with high-yield debt is by the time the bonds mature, the production from the wells the debt paid for has declined to the point the assets are only worth a fraction of the leverage outstanding. Many companies in the U.S. are already broke and more will follow. Much analysis has been done to show some of the top LTO drillers in the U.S. spent $2 on drilling for every $1 of cash flow prior investments had generated. The difference was made up by seemingly limitless capital inflows.</p> <p><u><em><strong>This has created two problems for Canada&rsquo;s oil future. </strong></em></u></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>The first is even if commodity prices rise and transportation issues are solved, the ability of companies to raise cheap debt will be impaired for some time, perhaps forever, </strong>depending on what happens to interest rates. Historical E&amp;P spending has almost always exceeded cash flow providing investment, jobs and opportunity that would not exist otherwise. External capital inflows are essential to feed the machine.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The other is the impact debt-financing has had on oilfield services (OFS) sector balance sheets.</strong> As has been written on these pages before, in 2014 and 2015 alone 21 diversified Canadian OFS operators invested $37 billion adding new rigs, frack spreads, camps, processing plants, midstream facilities and pipelines for a growing North American oilpatch. Three large Canadian pressure pumpers alone carried a combined $2.6 billion in debt and one has gone broke. A lot of E&amp;P demand was financed by debt, which is no longer available. Now OFS is overbuilt and many operators over-levered. It will take some recovery to clean this up.</p> </blockquote> <p><u><strong>Middle East Production About Volume, Not Price</strong></u></p> <p>Why Middle East producers do what they do remains a mystery. But whatever the plan or strategy, the cash cost of finding and producing the next barrel in this region remains the lowest in the world. In the past it seemed Middle East oil strategy was about price with oil sales assured. <strong>Now it looks like volume and market share.</strong></p> <p><strong>The Middle East may soon be the world&rsquo;s most active market for drilling rigs. </strong>According to the Baker Hughes worldwide rig count, the only area of the world (Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, Asia Pacific, U.S., Canada) still operating about the same number of rigs in 2016 as it was in 2014 is the Middle East. The only region that has increased its active rig count from 2013 and 2012 and its share of the global active drilling rigs is the Middle East.</p> <p><a class="lightbox" href="https://oilprice.com/images/tinymce/2016/Yager2804A.jpg"><img height="191" src="http://cdn.oilprice.com/images/tinymce/2016/Yager2804A%20-%20Copy.jpg" width="450" /></a></p> <p>(Click to enlarge)</p> <p><em>Source: Baker Hughes Worldwide Rig Count April 22, 2016, average rigs operating for the period</em></p> <p><strong>Why? Because they can, and to sustain output, they must. </strong>Whatever the financial situation may be for the governments in charge, there is clearly sufficient cash flow from existing production to fund more drilling. With the Baker Hughes U.S. total active rig count for April 22 down to 471, the average 403 rigs drilling in the Middle East in the first three months of 2016 make it the second-busiest region in the world. Unless prices recover soon, it could become number one.</p> <p>This is not a price war Canada can win. One of the attractions of Canada in recent years is foreign capital was welcome to develop massive, if expensive, oil reserves. Now Iran is said to be open for business. As is Mexico. Saudi Arabia wants to diversify its economy away from oil and sell its refining operations to global investors. The Saudis are talking bravely about an economy no longer dependent upon oil profits as soon as 2030.</p> <p><strong>Western Canada is not the only oil-producing jurisdiction wondering about its future. It is, however, the highest cost oil-producing jurisdiction wondering about its future.</strong></p> <p><u><strong>Canada Down But Not Out</strong></u></p> <p><strong>Canada produces 7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day of bitumen, crude oil, natural gas liquids and natural gas, making it the fifth largest hydrocarbon-producing jurisdiction in the world.</strong> The country won&rsquo;t be going off the oil and gas business anytime soon, so keeping it going will remain good business and the largest resource industry in Canada.</p> <p>But the current mantra of &ldquo;lower for longer&rdquo; is wrong. This is only the price of oil. In terms of the Canadian oil and gas industry there are multiple reasons it could be &ldquo;lower for a long time, possibly forever.&rdquo; As a country that performs all elements of producing still-essential hydrocarbons as well or better than anyone else in the world &ndash; everything from broad economic participation to worker safety to environmental protection &ndash; that is a tragedy.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="253" height="147" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160429_cadoil.jpg?1461943111" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/why-canadas-oil-industry-may-never-be-same#comments B+ Central Banks Crude Crude Oil Housing Bubble International Energy Agency Investor Sentiment Iran Iraq Kazakhstan Kuwait Lehman Lehman Brothers Market Share Mexico Middle East Monetary Policy Money Supply Natural Gas Quantitative Easing Recession recovery Royal Bank of Scotland Saudi Arabia Fri, 29 Apr 2016 16:47:12 +0000 Tyler Durden 530053 at http://www.zerohedge.com Former McDonalds CEO Warns Minimum Wage "Will Wipe Out 1000s Of Jobs" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/former-mcdonalds-ceo-warns-minimum-wage-will-wipe-out-1000s-jobs <p>While this should be no surprise to any rational non-establishment-teet-suckling economist, former McDonalds&#39; CEO Ed Rensi exclaims, in a <a href="http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2016/04/25/mcdonalds-minimum-wage-reality/#5b353b1b58bb">recent Forbes Op-Ed</a>, that<em> &quot;a $15 minimum wage won&rsquo;t spell the end of [fast-food brands]. However it will <strong>mean wiping out thousands of entry-level opportunities for people without many other options</strong>.&quot;</em> The $15 minimum wage demand, which translates to $30,000 a year for a full-time employee, is <strong>built upon a fundamental misunderstanding of a restaurant business</strong> (and we add simple supply and demand fundamentals) - <strong>just &quot;do the math&quot; </strong>Rensi rants...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;They&rsquo;re making millions while millions can&rsquo;t pay their bills,&rdquo;</strong> argue the union groups, suggesting there&rsquo;s plenty of profit left over in corporate coffers to fund a massive pay increase at the bottom.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>In truth, nearly 90% of McDonald&rsquo;s locations are independently-owned by franchisees who aren&rsquo;t making &ldquo;millions&rdquo; in profit. </strong>Rather, they keep roughly six cents of each sales dollar after paying for food, staff costs, rent and other expenses.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Let&rsquo;s do the math: </strong></span>A typical franchisee sells about $2.6 million worth of burgers, fries, shakes and Happy Meals each year, leaving them with $156,000 in profit. If that franchisee has 15 part-time employees on staff earning minimum wage, a $15 hourly pay requirement eats up three-quarters of their profitability. (In reality, the costs will be much higher, as the company will have to fund raises further up the pay scale.) For some locations, a $15 minimum wage wipes out their entire profit.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Recouping those costs isn&rsquo;t as simple as raising prices. </strong>If it were easy to add big price increases to a meal, it would have already been done without a wage hike to trigger it. In the real world, our industry customers are notoriously sensitive to price increases. (If you&rsquo;re a McDonald&rsquo;s regular, there&rsquo;s a reason you gravitate towards an extra-value meal or the dollar menu.) <strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Instead, franchisees can absorb the cost with a change that customers don&rsquo;t mind: The substitution of a self-service computer kiosk for a a full-service employee.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Rensi concludes rather ominously...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>I suspect that the labor organizers behind this campaign for a $15 minimum wage are less interested in helping employees, and more interested in helping themselves to dues money from their paycheck. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>They&rsquo;re unlikely to succeed in their goal of organizing the employees of McDonald&rsquo;s franchisees, but they may well succeed in passing $15 into law in other sympathetic locales.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>You&rsquo;ll see their legacy every time you visit the Golden Arches, where &ldquo;would you like fries with that&rdquo; is a button on a computer screen rather than a phrase spoken by an employee in their first job.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_mcd.jpg"><img height="381" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_mcd.jpg" width="567" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="567" height="381" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160429_mcd.jpg?1461940120" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/former-mcdonalds-ceo-warns-minimum-wage-will-wipe-out-1000s-jobs#comments McDonalds Reality Fri, 29 Apr 2016 16:24:16 +0000 Tyler Durden 530051 at http://www.zerohedge.com Germany Moves To Ban Refugees From Welfare; Politician Calls For "Islam Law" To Limit Influence http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/germany-moves-ban-refugees-welfare-politician-calls-islam-law-limit-influence <p>The initial refugee welcome in Germany is rapidly turning to rejection as the nation plan to <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/25bec884-0d52-11e6-9cd4-2be898308be3.html#axzz47Dhkta2p"><strong>ban EU migrants from most unemployment benefits for five years after arrival</strong></a> as a senior German politician has called for an &quot;Islam law&quot; that would <a href="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7931/germany-islam-law"><strong>limit the influence of foreign imams and prohibit the foreign financing of mosques in Germany</strong></a>.</p> <p><a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/25bec884-0d52-11e6-9cd4-2be898308be3.html#axzz47Dhkta2p">As The FT reports</a>, <strong>Germany is planning to ban EU migrants from most unemployment benefits for five years after their arrival</strong> in dramatic response to rightwing populist assaults on chancellor Angela Merkel&rsquo;s liberal immigration policies.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The proposals, which are<strong> far tougher than had been expected even a few months ago</strong>, highlight the <strong>government&rsquo;s concern over growing public anxiety about immigration and the related advance of the Alternative for Germany party, the most popular rightwing grouping since the second world war.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;I full and clearly support freedom of movement [of workers in the EU],&rdquo; said labour minister Andrea Nahles, detailing the plans. <strong>&ldquo;But freedom of access to social welfare is something else.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It is a sign of how much the AfD is shaking German politics that the proposals come from Ms Nahles, a leftwing social democrat. The SPD is suffering even more than Ms Merkel&rsquo;s CDU/CSU bloc in the face of the AfD&rsquo;s advance. Opinion polls show it around 20 per cent, an all-time low.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The German debate on curbing EU migrants&rsquo; benefits echoes the intense arguments in the UK,</strong> as it prepares for its EU membership vote in June. Ms Merkel has previously promised to work with prime minister David Cameron in cutting welfare abuse.</p> </blockquote> <p>And as if that was not &#39;welcoming&#39; and &#39;integrative&#39; enought, <a href="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7931/germany-islam-law">The Gatestone Institute&#39;s Soeren Kern reports</a> <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>a senior German politician has called for an &quot;Islam law&quot; that would limit the influence of foreign imams and prohibit the foreign financing of mosques in Germany</strong></span>.</p> <div> <ul class="content_preface_bullets"> <li> <p><em><strong>&quot;All imams need to be trained in Germany and share our core values. ... It cannot be that we are importing different, partly extreme values ??from other countries. German must be the language of the mosques. Enlightened Europe must cultivate its own Islam.&quot; </strong></em>&ndash; Andreas Scheuer, the General Secretary of the Christian Social Union party (CSU).</p> </li> <li> <p>The Turkish government has sent 970 clerics &mdash; most of whom do not speak German &mdash; to lead 900 mosques in Germany that are controlled by a branch of the Turkish government&#39;s Directorate for Religious Affairs. Turkish clerics in Germany are effectively Turkish civil servants who do the bidding of the Turkish government.</p> </li> <li> <p>Erdogan has repeatedly warned Turkish immigrants not to assimilate into German society. During a trip to Berlin in November 2011, Erdogan declared: <em><strong>&quot;Assimilation is a violation of human rights.&quot;</strong></em></p> </li> </ul> </div> <p>The proposal &mdash; modelled on the Islam Law <a href="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5277/austria-reforms-islam-law" target="_blank">promulgated in Austria</a> in February 2015 &mdash; is<strong> aimed at staving off extremism and promoting Muslim integration by developing a moderate &quot;European Islam.&quot;</strong></p> <p><strong>The move comes amid revelations that the Turkish government is paying the salaries of nearly 1,000 conservative imams in Germany who are leading mosques across the country. </strong>In addition, Saudi Arabia recently pledged to finance the construction of 200 mosques in Germany to serve migrants there.</p> <p>In an <a href="http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article154288868/CSU-fordert-Islam-Gesetz-fuer-Deutschland.html" target="_blank">interview</a> with the newspaper <em>Die Welt</em>, Andreas Scheuer, the General Secretary of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister party to German Chancellor Angela Merkel&#39;s Christian Democrats (CDU), said that Berlin should restrict Turkish financing of mosques in Germany and begin training and certifying its own imams<strong>. Otherwise, he argued, Muslim integration will be difficult or impossible to achieve.</strong> He said:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;We need to become more critical in our dealings with political Islam, because it hinders Muslim integration in our country. We need an Islam Law. The financing of mosques or Islamic kindergartens from abroad, e.g. from Turkey or Saudi Arabia, should be banned. All imams need to be trained in Germany and share our core values.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;It cannot be that we are importing different, partly extreme values ??from other countries. German must be the language of the mosques. Enlightened Europe must cultivate its own Islam.</p> <p>&quot;We are still at the beginning of our efforts. We must start now. We cannot on the one hand enact an Integration Law and on the other side close our eyes to what is being preached in mosques and by whom.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p>Scheuer&#39;s comments come amid <a href="http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article154680761/Kritik-an-Erdogans-tuerkischen-Predigern-in-Deutschland.html" target="_blank">reports</a> that the Turkish government has sent 970 clerics &mdash; most of whom do not speak German &mdash; to lead 900 mosques in Germany that are controlled by the Turkish-Islamic Union for Religious Affairs (DITIB), a branch of the Turkish government&#39;s Directorate for Religious Affairs, known in Turkish as <em>Diyanet</em>.</p> <p><strong>Successive German governments are responsible for this state of affairs. </strong>An essay in <em>Der Tagesspiegel</em> <a href="http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/muslime-in-deutschland-islam-gesetz-das-langt-nicht/13440142.html" target="_blank">states</a>: &quot;Over past decades, the federal government has welcomed the fact that the Turkish religious authority exercises a great influence on German mosques. Turkey was considered a secular state, and their influence was viewed as a shield against religious extremism.&quot;</p> <p>This was before Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan embarked on a mission to turn the formerly secular nation an Islamic country.</p> <p>According to <em>Die Welt</em>, Erdogan has <a href="http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article154680761/Kritik-an-Erdogans-tuerkischen-Predigern-in-Deutschland.html" target="_blank">increased</a> the size, scope and power of the <em>Diyanet</em>, which now has a budget of 6.4 Turkish lira ($2.3 billion; &euro;1.8 billion), which is more than the budgets of 12 Turkish government ministries, including the interior ministry and the foreign ministry. The <em>Diyanet</em> now has 120,000 employees, up from 72,000 in 2004.</p> <p><strong>The Turkish clerics in Germany are effectively Turkish civil servants who do the bidding of the Turkish government. Critics accuse Erdogan of using DITIB mosques to prevent Turkish migrants from integrating into German society.</strong></p> <p>German politician Cem Özdemir, co-chairman of the Green Party, <a href="http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article154680761/Kritik-an-Erdogans-tuerkischen-Predigern-in-Deutschland.html" target="_blank">said</a> that DITIB is &quot;nothing more than an extended arm of the Turkish state.&quot; He added: &quot;Rather than being a legitimate religious organization, the Turkish government has turned DITIB into a political front organization of Erdogan&#39;s AKP party. Turkey must let go of the Muslims in Germany.&quot;</p> <p><strong>Erdogan has repeatedly warned Turkish immigrants not to assimilate into German society.</strong></p> <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 600px;"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="max-width: 600px; border: 1px solid black;"><img border="0" height="338" src="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/pics/1567.jpg" width="600" /><br /> <p style="font-size: 82%; margin: 4px 6px;">The Cologne Central Mosque, run by DITIB, is used as a <a href="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6466/germany-radical-islam" target="_blank">key base</a> in Germany for Turkey&#39;s intelligence agency, where they run a local &quot;thug squad&quot; to mete out &quot;tough punishments&quot; to Turkish dissidents in Germany. (Image source: &copy; Raimond Spekking/CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><strong>During a trip to Berlin in November 2011, Erdogan <a href="http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/tuerkischer-ministerpraesident-in-deutschland-erdogan-warnt-tuerken-vor-assimilation-11514889.html" target="_blank">declared</a>: &quot;Assimilation is a violation of human rights.&quot;</strong> In February 2011, Erdogan <a href="http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article12658307/Erdogan-warnt-vor-Islamophobie-in-Deutschland.html" target="_blank">told</a> a crowd of more than 10,000 Turkish immigrants in Düsseldorf: &quot;We are against assimilation. No one should be able to rip us away from our culture and civilization.&quot; In February 2008, Erdogan <a href="http://www.welt.de/debatte/article1660510/Das-sagte-Ministerpraesident-Erdogan-in-Koeln.html" target="_blank">told</a> 16,000 Turkish immigrants in Cologne that &quot;assimilation is a crime against humanity.&quot;</p> <p><strong>For his part, Saudi Arabia&#39;s King Salman recently <a href="http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/fluechtlingskrise/die-golfstaaten-schotten-sich-gegenueber-fluechtlingen-ab-13789932.html" target="_blank">announced</a> a plan to finance the construction of 200 mosques in Germany to provide for the spiritual needs migrants and refugees who arrived there in 2015. </strong>The mosques would, presumably, adhere to Wahhabism, the official and dominant form of Sunni Islam in Saudi Arabia. Wahhabism is an austere form of Islam that insists on a literal interpretation of the Koran.</p> <p>On April 11, Hans-Georg Maassen, the head of Germany&#39;s domestic intelligence agency (BfV), expressed alarm at the growing number of radical Arab-language mosques in Germany. &quot;Many mosques are dominated by fundamentalists and are being monitored because of their Salafist orientation,&quot; Maassen said in an <a href="http://www.welt.de/print/die_welt/politik/article154195845/Wie-fundamentalistisch-geht-es-in-Moscheen-zu.html" target="_blank">interview</a> with <em>Welt am Sonntag</em>. He added that many of the mosques were being financed by donors in Saudi Arabia.</p> <p><strong>It remains uncertain, however, whether Merkel will back the &quot;Islam Law,&quot; which is certain to antagonize Erdogan, who effectively <a href="http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/7914/turkey-visa-free-travel" target="_blank">controls</a> the floodgates of Muslim mass migration to Europe.</strong> If Merkel were openly to support a ban on foreign financing of mosques in Germany, Erdogan likely would threaten to pull out of the EU-Turkey deal on migrants, a deal Merkel desperately needs to stanch the flow of mass migration to Germany. It is yet another indication of the tremendous leverage Erdogan has gained over Merkel and German policymaking.</p> <p>Germany&#39;s coalition government has, however, reached a compromise deal on a new &quot;Integration Law.&quot;</p> <p>On April 14, Merkel <a href="https://www.bundesregierung.de/Content/DE/Artikel/2016/04/2016-04-14-pressekonfernz-merkel.html" target="_blank">announced</a> the broad outlines of the law, which will spell out the rights and responsibilities of migrants in Germany. Under the law, the text of which will be finalized by May 24, asylum seekers must attend German language classes and integration training or have their benefits cut.</p> <p><strong>The government pledged to make it easier for asylum seekers to gain access to the German labor market by promising to create 100,000 new &quot;working opportunities.&quot; The government will also suspend a law requiring employers to give preference to German or EU job applicants over asylum seekers.</strong></p> <p>In an effort to prevent the spread of migrant ghettoes in Germany, the new law, which is expected to enter into force this summer, will prohibit refugees from choosing where they live until they have secured asylum. Migrants who abandon state-assigned housing would face unspecified sanctions.</p> <p>The new law also includes a counter-terrorism provision, which would allow German intelligence agencies to work more closely with their European, NATO and Israeli counterparts.</p> <p>&quot;We will have a German law on integration,&quot; Merkel <a href="https://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/Content/DE/Mitschrift/Pressekonferenzen/2016/04/2016-04-14-merkel-gabriel-seehofer.html" target="_blank">said</a>. &quot;This is the first time in post-war Germany that this has happened. It is an important, qualitative step.&quot;</p> <p>But critics say the proposed law does not go far enough because it does not threaten with deportation those migrants who refuse to integrate. In his interview with <em>Die Welt</em>, Scheuer <a href="http://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article154288868/CSU-fordert-Islam-Gesetz-fuer-Deutschland.html" target="_blank">insisted</a> that Muslim immigrants must integrate or be deported:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Anyone who fails to attend integration and language courses attests that they are not prepared to integrate and accept our values. Moreover, it is important that people who want to stay in Germany register with the Federal Employment Agency [<em>Bundesagentur für Arbeit</em>] and provide for their own livelihood. <strong>The message is clear: Those who are not integrated cannot stay here. We need to cease having romantic views of integration. Multiculturalism has failed. Those who are not integrated must count on deportation.</strong>&quot;</p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="573" height="317" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160429_germany.jpg?1461939612" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/germany-moves-ban-refugees-welfare-politician-calls-islam-law-limit-influence#comments Germany Newspaper Saudi Arabia Turkey Unemployment Unemployment Benefits Fri, 29 Apr 2016 16:01:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 530049 at http://www.zerohedge.com Dow Dumps 400 Points From BoJ Shock As Gold Nears $1300 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/dow-dumps-400-points-boj-shock-gold-nears-1300 <p><strong>Gold first closed above $1300 on September 29th 2010, 67 months ago</strong>; and as investors' faith in Central Banks falters - with The Dow down over 400 points (and Nikkei 225 down 1700 points!) from the scene of Kuroda's Kamikaze decision, gold has soared up above $1299...</p> <p>NKY and JPY are bearing the brunt for now... <strong><em>(the former under 16,000 and the latter with a 106 handle)</em></strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_gold13003.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_gold13003_0.jpg" width="600" height="347" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Gold is soaring...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_gold13001.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_gold13001_0.jpg" width="600" height="428" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And Stocks are plunging...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_gold1300.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_gold1300_0.jpg" width="600" height="428" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As it appears Oil algos ran out of shorts to squeeze...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_gold13002.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_gold13002_0.jpg" width="600" height="444" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1246" height="923" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160429_gold13002.jpg?1461944726" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/dow-dumps-400-points-boj-shock-gold-nears-1300#comments Central Banks Nikkei Fri, 29 Apr 2016 15:43:54 +0000 Tyler Durden 530048 at http://www.zerohedge.com According To The NY Fed, US Has To Grow At 3.8% In Second Half To Hit The Fed's GDP Forecast http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/according-ny-fed-us-has-grow-38-second-half-hit-feds-gdp-forecast <p>Earlier today we reported that in its inaugural Q2 GDP nowcast, the Atlanta Fed expects 1.8% for Q2 GDP, a substantial rebound from the first official Q1 GDP print of only Q1. We also said that we expect this number (which is already 0.5% below the consensus estimate) will drop substantially in the coming weeks. Well, moment ago the New York Fed, which apparently has picked up the baton of the "most bearish regional Fed" released its own first Nowcast for Q2, in which it sees Q2 GDP growth of only 0.8%, or 1% below that of its fellow Fed. </p> <p><a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/policy/nowcast/nowcast_2016_0429.pdf?la=en">This is why</a>:</p> <ul> <li>This week's advance GDP release was 0.5% (0.54% when taken to two digits) which is close to the latest nowcast of 0.7% (0.72% to two digits) and consistent with the weakness predicted by the model since we started tracking the ýrst-quarter GDP growth in November 2015. </li> <li><strong>GDP growth prospects remain moderate for 2016:Q2, standing at 0.8%.</strong></li> <li><strong>News from the past two weeks' data releases, since the April 15 nowcast was released, had an overall negative effect on the nowcast for the second quarter.</strong></li> <li><strong>Housing and manufacturing news had the largest negative impact on the nowcasts, while manufacturers' inventories of durable goods provided a small but positive surprise.</strong></li> </ul> <p>Visually:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/04/20/NY%20Fed%20Q2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/04/20/NY%20Fed%20Q2_0.jpg" width="600" height="320" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>If the suddenly bearish NY Fed (which may or may not be run by evil KGB agents meant to undermine the hopes and dreams of a "recovering" nation, who knows... joking aside, this is just the Fed's way of suggesting no rate hikes are coming any time soon) is right, what does this mean in practical terms? Simple: assuming no revisions to Q1 GDP, and assuming Q2 GDP of 0.8%, <strong>then the US would have to grow at 3.8% to hit the Fed'<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20160316.pdf">s central tendency forecast </a>of 2.2% GDP growth as per its latest forecast.</strong></p> <p>Good luck. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1408" height="751" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/NY%20Fed%20Q2.jpg?1461944093" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/according-ny-fed-us-has-grow-38-second-half-hit-feds-gdp-forecast#comments New York Fed Fri, 29 Apr 2016 15:35:20 +0000 Tyler Durden 530047 at http://www.zerohedge.com Head Of Deutsche Bank "Integrity Committee" Fired Due To "Overzealousness" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/head-deutsche-bank-integrity-committee-fired-due-overzealousness <p>Perhaps it is merely a coincidence but just weeks after Deutsche Bank became the first bank to admit to rigging the gold market (and agreeing to rat out fellow manipulators) yesterday afternoon the head of Deutsche Bank's "integrity committee" announced he would resign two years before his time, which is a polite way of saying he was fired.</p> <p> As the <a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/9256f338-0d82-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515.html">FT reports</a>, Georg Thoma has been fired from Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board two years before his contract ends "after coming under fire from other board members in a battle over how to deal with the German bank’s past scandals."</p> <p>Thoma, a veteran Shearman and Sterling lawyer, was brought on to the board by chairman Paul Achleitner in 2013 and headed the integrity committee, <strong>whose remit includes overseeing the bank’s efforts to comply with legal and regulatory requirements</strong>. Alas, he failed as the bank's record surge in litigation charges in recent years has amply demonstrated. </p> <p>According to the FT, "Thoma’s approach left him at odds with some colleagues, and on Sunday, Alfred Herling, Deutsche’s vice-chairman, took the unusual step of publicly criticising his actions in Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. <strong>Mr Herling accused Mr Thoma of “overzealousness”, saying that he “goes too far when he demands ever wider investigations and more and more lawyers come marching up”, </strong>and adding that the costs were “no longer proportionate”.</p> <p>As <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-28/deutsche-bank-s-georg-thoma-to-step-down-in-wake-of-board-clash">Bloomberg adds, </a>the remarks divided observers, with Dieter Hein, an analyst at Fairesearch-Alphavalue, saying Thoma was probably just doing his job, while Michael Seufert, an analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank, said the question of going too far in probing wrongdoing is legitimate.</p> <p>In other words, the vice-chairman goes after an internal scapegoat, the person who is tasked with fixing what is clearly a broken organization (just check its stock price) because the bank is unable to stop rigging every market it participates in. </p> <p>As a reminder, Deutsche Bank’s costs and provisions for fines and lawsuits have amounted to $14.3 billion since 2012 and have substantially cut into the company’s reserves at a time when regulators order banks to hold more capital, resulting in the company's stock price recently hitting lows not seen since the financial crisis. On Thursday, DB said that it expects further "material" legal costs this year when reporting quarterly earnings</p> <p>DB at least had some kind parting words: Achleitner said Thoma had given Deutsche “outstanding service” during his time on the board. “He has implemented processes of great importance and benefit to the bank. The supervisory board is determined to continue its work of investigating possible misconduct and to draw lessons for the future,” he said.</p> <p>And yet the main lesson, namely that <strong>not to fire the person who is meant to fix a broken organization</strong>, was somehow missed. </p> <p>Meanwhile, Henning Kagermann, the former head of German software group SAP who is also a board member at Deutsche, told the newspaper that “for all the diligence that we have exercised, it is important for us that Deutsche Bank finally&thinsp;.&thinsp;.&thinsp;.<strong>&thinsp;devotes all its energy to looking to the future</strong>”.</p> <p>Yes please, look at the future, and ignore DB's past which, among other unexplained incidents, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-25/deutsche-bank-lawyer-and-former-sec-enforcement-attorney-found-dead-apparent-suicide">includes the suicide </a>of former senior executive William Broeksmit, who was found dead after hanging himself at his London home, as well as the suicide of the bank's associate general counsel, 41 year old Calogero "Charlie" Gambino, who was found on the morning of Oct. 20, having also hung himself by the neck from a stairway banister. </p> <p>One wonders if any of those deaths had something to do with what has emerged to be a culture of unprecedented corruption and, recently, outright crime. </p> <p>Deutsche said in a statement that Mr Thoma would resign immediately from his role as chairman of the integrity committee and leave the supervisory board after a one-month notice period. The bank has begun the search for a permanent successor. We are confident a former Goldman Sachs employee will be delighted to fill Thoma's shoes. </p> <p>The shocking termination comes comes just three weeks before Deutsche’s annual shareholder meeting on May 19, at which the bank’s supervisory board is likely to come under scrutiny, and even more dirty laundery may be set to emerge, especially since as the FT adds, "one small shareholder <strong>has requested a special audit of whether members of Deutsche’s supervisory board or management board breached their obligations in how they dealt with some of the bank’s legal entanglements.</strong>"</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The motion requests that the audit ascertain whether there were management failings in relation to a number of investigations, including the Libor scandal. Among other things, it requests an investigation into whether Deutsche had to pay heavier fines because members of its management or supervisory board obstructed, misled, or failed to co-operate sufficiently with authorities.</p> </blockquote> <p>Considering the tsunami of legal settlements unveiled by Deutsche Bank in recent months - not to mention its shocking eagerness to put its gold manipulation history quickly in the past - we are confident the motion will be promptly denied. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="664" height="718" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/georg%20thoma.jpg?1461943304" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/head-deutsche-bank-integrity-committee-fired-due-overzealousness#comments Corruption Deutsche Bank goldman sachs Goldman Sachs LIBOR Newspaper Fri, 29 Apr 2016 15:21:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 530045 at http://www.zerohedge.com Goldman Sachs Stopped Out Of "Short Gold" Recommendation http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/goldman-sachs-stopped-out-short-gold-recommendation <p>With the Yen and Yuan surging, it appears money is greatly rotating out of US dollars and into an &#39;alternative&#39; currency as Gold soars over $1290.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_GSGOLD2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_GSGOLD2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 308px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As Gold is bid after the BoJ Shock...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_GSGOLD3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_GSGOLD3_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 507px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>More problematically for Goldman Sachs&#39; Jeff Currie is<strong> his &quot;Short Gold&quot; recommendation just got stopped out</strong>...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/Currie%20short%20gold.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/Currie%20short%20gold.jpg" style="width: 567px; height: 295px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-15/goldman-tells-clients-short-gold-5-days-after-saying-gold-may-soar-much-higher-over-"><strong>Goldman went short gold on 2/15 at around $1205...</strong></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>We also maintain our bearish view on gold that has rallied along with the other commodities. Our short gold recommendation (which we opened with a 17% upside, in line with our $1000/toz 12-m forecast) is currently at a c.5% loss, <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">with a stop loss at 7%</span></strong>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>This gold rally was driven by a lack of conviction in divergence in US growth as a weak US dollar has been highly correlated with a higher gold price.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>We believe this realignment view of weak global growth is not supported by the US data, which will likely reinforce higher US yields, a stronger US dollar and the return of divergence, particularly should strong US consumer growth dissolve market fears regarding US growth. <strong>This in turn will likely put downward pressure on gold prices towards our near-term target of $1100/toz</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>That just ended... <strong>as the 7% loss stopped them out...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_GSGOLD_1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_GSGOLD_1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 414px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Leaving Goldman clients pensive...</p> <p><strong><img height="527" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/02/09/kermit%20ass.jpg" width="395" /></strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="377" height="274" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160429_GSGOLD1.jpg?1461941950" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/goldman-sachs-stopped-out-short-gold-recommendation#comments goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Yen Yuan Fri, 29 Apr 2016 15:04:27 +0000 Tyler Durden 530044 at http://www.zerohedge.com Atlanta Fed Unveils First Q2 GDP Forecast, Sees 1.8% Growth, 0.5% Below Wall Street Consensus http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/atlanta-fed-unveils-first-q2-gdp-forecast-sees-18-growth-05-below-wall-street-consen <p>After being just fractionally above the official Q1 GDP print which yesterday came in at 0.5%, moments ago the Atlanta Fed unveiled its first Q2 GDP estimate which it sees at 1.8%, roughly 0.5% below the sellside average estimate of 2.3%, and just in line with the lowest forecast. </p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1">From the Fed</a>:</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — April 29, 2016 </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The first GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.8 percent on April 29. The final model nowcast for first-quarter real GDP growth was 0.6 percent, 0.1 percentage points above the advance estimate of 0.5 percent released on Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The next GDPNow update is Monday, May 2. Please see the "Release Dates" tab below for a full list of upcoming releases. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/04/20/gdpnow-forecast-evolution%20%288%29.gif" width="580" height="435" /></p> </blockquote> <p>Considering the ongoing retrenchment among US consumer spending, which once again missed expectations and pushed the savings rate to match 3 year highs, we expect this number to be once again revised lower in the coming weeks.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="580" height="435" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/gdpnow-forecast-evolution%20%288%29.gif?1461941972" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/atlanta-fed-unveils-first-q2-gdp-forecast-sees-18-growth-05-below-wall-street-consen#comments Savings Rate Fri, 29 Apr 2016 15:00:08 +0000 Tyler Durden 530042 at http://www.zerohedge.com Gold “Chart of The Decade” – Maths Suggest $10,000 Per Ounce Says Rickards http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/gold-%E2%80%9Cchart-decade%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%93-maths-suggest-10000-ounce-says-rickards <p><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-chart-of-the-decade-maths-suggest-10000-per-ounce-says-rickards/">Gold “Chart of The Decade” – Maths Suggest $10,000 Per Ounce Says Rickards</a></strong></p> <p>James Rickards, economic and monetary expert, joined Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua on Tuesday&nbsp;to discuss the gold “chart of the decade”, his new book “The New Case for Gold,” why gold is money and why gold is going to $10,000/oz in the coming years.</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><em><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2016/04/gold-chart.jpg?3dbb47" alt="gold chart" width="550" height="334" class="aligncenter wp-image-5579 size-full" /><br /></a>Gold in USD – 10 Years (GoldCore)</strong></em></p> <p>Francine generously acknowledged how Rickards was <em>“bullish on gold for quiet some time and actually you have been proven right … it is the chart of the decade”</em>.&nbsp;She said that this&nbsp;<em>“has to do with inflation expectations, it has to do with currency but it is really at the end of the day just a haven so&nbsp;people pile into it – as much as they do yen …”</em></p> <div> <p><strong>GOLD IS MONEY</strong><br /> Jim responded that</p> <p><em>“Gold is a form of money and not an investment. As money it competes with other kinds of money — the dollar, euro, yen etc.. They’re like horses going around a racetrack – place your bets but you have a subjective preference for money.&nbsp;</em></p> <p><em>As investors are losing confidence in central banks … that’s what’s been going on and been clearly revealed. Central bankers have told me that they don’t know what they’re doing and they sort of make it up as they go along. They experiment.</em></p> <p><em>President Evans of the Chicago Fed has said this and others have said it privately.</em></p> <p><em>I spoke to Ben Bernanke and he described that everything he’s done was an experiment — meaning you don’t know what the outcome is.</em></p> <p><em>So in that world where investors are losing confidence in central banks, gold does well.</em></p> <p><em>Right now there are tens of trillions of dollars of sovereign debt with negative yields to maturity – bunds and JGBs..</em></p> <p><em>Gold has zero yield.</em></p> <p><em>Zero is higher than a negative 50 bps so gold is now the high yield asset in this environment.”</em></p> <p><strong>STOCKS HIGHER ON “FULL DOVE”<br /></strong>Regarding stocks, Rickards had this to say:</p> <p><em>“Both gold and stocks are going up, and the reason stocks are going up is because Janet Yellen is going “full dove”. There’s nothing the stock market doesn’t like about free money. Plus negative interest rates might be on the table for next year.</em></p> <p><em>That’s sort of bullish for stocks but it’s also bullish for gold.</em></p> <p><em>Sometimes gold and stocks go up together and sometimes they don’t. There’s no long term correlation, but right now in a world of easy money and negative yields it’s good for both stocks and gold.”</em></p> <p><strong>GOLD AT $10K/oz<br /></strong>When asked for his price target for gold, Rickards says</p> <p><em>“I have a technical level for gold, it is $10,000 U.S. per ounce. That amount gets bigger over time because it’s a ratio of physical gold to printed money. The amount of physical gold doesn’t go up very much, but printed money goes up a lot, so the dollar target goes up more over time because of all the money printing.</em></p> <p><em>$10,000 U.S. per ounce is the implied non-deflationary price for gold. If you have to go back to a gold standard, or anything like it to restore confidence, that is the number you must have to avoid deflation.</em></p> <p><em>So $10,000 per ounce is mathematically derived and is not a guess.”<br /></em><br /><strong>INTEREST RATES and US ECONOMY</strong><br /> Rickards is asked what happens if Yellen tries to normalise rates and says</p> <p><em>“If Janet Yellen begins to normalize then it would probably throw the U.S. into a recession. A 25 basis points hike in December threw the U.S. stock market into a 10% correction in the next two months.</em></p> <p><em>The U.S. is hanging by a thread. It looks like first quarter GDP is going to come in at well below 1% according to the Atlanta Fed Tracker.</em></p> <p><em>What’s the difference between -1% and 1%? Technically not much. One may be a technical recession and one is not, but growth is extremely weak. You don’t raise interest rates in a recession. You’re supposed to ease in a recession.</em></p> <p><em>International spill over as well as the U.S. economy being fundamentally weak is the reason to not raise rates.</em></p> <p><em>The time to raise rates was 2011 and that’s long gone. But two wrongs don’t make a right.”</em></p> <p><strong>SHANGHAI ACCORD and ‘SUPER MARIO’</strong><br /><em>“The Phillips Curve seems to have broken down — if it ever existed. The bigger play is the “Shanghai Accord” which came out of the G20 meeting in Shanghai, China in February 2016.</em></p> <p><em>It’s like a secret Plaza Accord between the U.S. Fed, the Bank of England, the Peoples Bank of China, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.</em></p> <p><em>The evidence for a new secretive plaza accord is overwhelming. See here is the deal – China needs to ease.&nbsp;</em><em>But the last two times China eased, August 2015 and December/January 2016, the U.S. stock market fell out of bed.</em></p> <p><em>So how do you ease China without destroying the U.S. stock market?</em></p> <p><em>So the answer is k</em><em>eep the dollar/yuan cross rate unchanged.&nbsp;</em><em>Then ease in the U.S. dollar so that China goes along for the ride.&nbsp;</em><em>At the same time tighten Japan and Europe, so you get a stronger yen and a stronger euro.</em></p> <p><em>China is a larger trading partner for Japan and Europe than the U.S. is, so it’s a backdoor easing for China. Cross rates unchanged but China gets to ease.”</em></p> <p>Lacqua wonders if Mario Draghi in the ECB would agree to that and Rickards concludes by saying that ‘Super Mario’ <em>“is his favourite central banker”.</em></p> <p><strong>Watch the full interview <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-04-26/where-next-for-gold-and-global-growth" target="_blank">here</a></strong></p> </div> <p><strong style="line-height: 1.5;"><br /> Week’s&nbsp;Market Updates<br /><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/">Property Bubble In Ireland Developing Again</a></strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/"><strong>Silver Bullion “Momentum Building” As “Supply Trouble Brewing”</strong></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/"><strong>Cyber Fraud At SWIFT – $81 Million Stolen From Central Bank</strong></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/"><strong>Gold In London Vaults Beneath Bank of England Worth $248 Billion – BBC</strong></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/"><strong>Silver Prices Up 6% This Week and 25% YTD; Gold Up 1% This Week</strong></a></p> <p><strong style="line-height: 1.5;">Gold News and Commentary<br /></strong>Silver “will likely continue to be the surprise outperformer in 2016” said GoldCore (Reuters)<br />“Tempter tantrum in global markets today is quite worrisome” said GoldCore (Marketwatch)<br /> Gold climbs after Fed, BOJ stand pat on policy (Reuters)<br /> Gold powers higher as BOJ’s surprise inaction hurts the dollar (Mineweb)<br /> Russia’s VTB aims to supply up to 100 tonnes of gold to China per year (Reuters)</p> <p>Gross Warns Financial System Likely To Implode – (Bloomberg Video)<br /> JP Morgan Sees Draghi as Buyer of Last Resort for Equities (Bloomberg)<br /> Venezuela Doesn’t Have Enough Money to Pay for Its Money (Bloomberg)<br /> America’s earnings recession just got worse (CNN)<br /> Germany’s Merkel warns of risks to banks from low interest rates (Reuters)<br /><strong style="line-height: 1.5;">Read More&nbsp;<a href="http://news.goldcore.com/">Here</a></strong></p> <table class=" aligncenter" style="height: 205px;" width="551"> <tbody> <tr> <td><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/knowledge/important-guides/"><img src="http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/233034/Protecting_Your_Savings_in_the_Coming_Bail_In_Era_-_Copy-3.jpg" alt="Protecting_Your_Savings_in_the_Coming_Bail_In_Era_-_Copy-3.jpg" title="Protecting_Your_Savings_in_the_Coming_Bail_In_Era_-_Copy-3.jpg" width="167" style="width: 167px; max-width: 167px; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></a></td> <td>&nbsp;</td> <td><img src="http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/233034/Essential_Guide_to_Storing_Gold_in_Singapore.jpg" alt="Essential_Guide_to_Storing_Gold_in_Singapore.jpg" title="Essential_Guide_to_Storing_Gold_in_Singapore.jpg" align="center" width="171" vspace="0" style="margin: 0px auto; width: 171px; max-width: 171px;" /></td> <td><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/knowledge/important-guides/">&nbsp;</a></td> <td><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/knowledge/important-guides/"><img src="http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/233034/7_Key_Storage_Must_Haves.png" alt="7_Key_Storage_Must_Haves.png" title="7_Key_Storage_Must_Haves.png" align="center" width="167" height="246" /></a></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/knowledge/important-guides/">Read Our Most Popular Guides in Recent Months</a></strong></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/gold-%E2%80%9Cchart-decade%E2%80%9D-%E2%80%93-maths-suggest-10000-ounce-says-rickards#comments Bank of England Bank of Japan Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke Central Banks China ETC European Central Bank Free Money High Yield Ireland Janet Yellen Japan Recession Reuters Sovereign Debt SWIFT Yen Yuan Fri, 29 Apr 2016 14:47:05 +0000 GoldCore 530041 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Fed Just Found Its Next Excuse Not To Hike Rates http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/fed-just-found-its-next-excuse-not-hike-rates <p>As June looms, The Fed - having dropped 'some' of its global event risk language in the latest statement - is now desperate for an excuse to not hike rates (or face a total loss of credibility). Judging by Fed's Kaplan, they just found it...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*KAPLAN SAYS FED WILL WATCH U.K. POLLS ON BREXIT CLOSELY IN JUNE</strong></li> </ul> <p>Which is a problem as 'Brexit' just moved into the lead among YouGov polls.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_brexit.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/04/28/20160429_brexit_0.jpg" width="600" height="328" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Either Brexit or market turmoil or a terrible jobs number...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*KAPLAN SAYS IF ECONOMY IMPROVES IN NEXT MONTHS, WILL BACK HIKE</strong></li> </ul> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="955" height="522" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20160429_brexit.jpg?1461941124" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-29/fed-just-found-its-next-excuse-not-hike-rates#comments Fri, 29 Apr 2016 14:46:20 +0000 Tyler Durden 530040 at http://www.zerohedge.com