http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/CBO%25252525252525252525252525252525252525252520August%252525252525252525252525252525252525252525201.png/Americans%20Have%20Never%20Been%20More%20Dissastisfied%20With%20Government en EU Announces New Washington-Pleasing, Russia-Wristslap Sanctions http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/eu-announces-new-washington-pleasing-russia-wristslap-sanctions <p>After <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-24/european-leaders-tentatively-unveil-potential-russian-sanctions">unleashing a 10-page report of the death and destructive economic impact they could have on Russia via sanctions</a>, the European leaders have agreed to issue travel bans, some asset-freezes, and trade curbs on various new individuals and business entities. <strong>The Goldilocks sanctions... just enough to please Washington, not enough to infuriate Putin into 'boomerangs'</strong>.</p> <ul> <li><strong>*EU AMBASSADORS’ MEETING ON RUSSIA SANCTIONS REACHES DEAL: FT</strong></li> </ul> <p><em>Via DPA,</em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>EU ambassadors have reached agreement on a new round of travel bans and asset freezes in response to the crisis in Ukraine, diplomats say.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>The sanctions...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*EU AGREES CURBS ON RUSSIAN BANKS, EXPORT OF SOME TECHNOLOGY</strong></li> <li><strong>*EU TO RESTRICT EXPORT OF EQUIPMENT FOR RUSSIAN OIL PRODUCTION</strong></li> <li><strong>*EU TO CURB STATE-OWNED RUSSIAN BANKS' ACCESS TO CAPITAL MARKETS</strong></li> <li><strong>*EU TO IMPOSE EMBARGO ON FUTURE ARMS SALES TO RUSSIA</strong></li> <li><strong>*EU TO CURB SALE OF 'DUAL-USE' MACHINERY, ELECTRONICS TO RUSSIA</strong></li> <li><strong>*SANCTIONS WILL BE REVIEWED AFTER 3 MONTHS: EU DIPLOMAT </strong></li> </ul> <p>But...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*AIDE SAYS U.S. HAS APPROVED EXPORTS OF DUAL-USE GOODS TO RUSSIA</strong></li> <li><strong>*COMMERCE AIDE SAYS U.S. HASN'T REVOKED RUSSIA EXPORT LICENSES</strong></li> <li><strong>*U.S. GOODS APPROVED FOR EXPORT HAVE MILITARY APPLICATIONS</strong></li> </ul> <p>I.e. the rockets for US military satellites</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2014-07-25%2Feurope-unveils-preliminary-sanctions-against-russia&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFQjCNExsaXHZqRy0XSVCmm05BbcMSYOSQ">Just as we predicted.</a></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Is it any wonder European leaders are all talk since the potential for blow back is so much larger compared to Washington...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140724_russ1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140724_russ1_0.jpg" width="600" height="523" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Meanwhile, Russia is 'trying'</p> <ul> <li><strong>*LAVROV URGED KERRY TO PUSH UKRAINE GOVT FOR CEASE-FIRE</strong></li> <li><strong>*LAVROV, KERRY DISCUSSED ARMS CONTROL, UKRAINE, MIDDLE EAST</strong></li> <li><strong>*LAVROV, KERRY AGREE ON NEED FOR CEASE-FIRE NEAR MH17 CRASH SITE</strong></li> </ul> <p>And Kerry's response:</p> <ul> <li><strong>*KERRY: RUSSIA SHOWS `NO SHRED OF EVIDENCE' OF BACKING CEASEFIRE</strong></li> <li><strong>*KERRY: U.S. WILL IMPOSE WIDER SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IF NO CHANGE</strong></li> </ul> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="853" height="580" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140721_boom.jpg?1406646264" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/eu-announces-new-washington-pleasing-russia-wristslap-sanctions#comments Capital Markets Goldilocks Middle East Ukraine Tue, 29 Jul 2014 15:05:29 +0000 Tyler Durden 491953 at http://www.zerohedge.com Behold The New Normal Definition Of "Confidence" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/behold-new-normal-definition-confidence <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/consumer-confidence-explodes-higher-october-2007-highs">While headlines are flashing red about <strong>how exuberant the consumer is</strong>,</a> there appears to be some 'new normal' oddness under the covers. Projecting this positive news into the future (as every talking-head is) does not add up with the fact that "plans to buy a car" and "plans to buy a major appliance" both tumbled in July. But the biggest problem for the 'recovery', <strong>"plans to buy a home" collapsed to its lowest since Feb 2013</strong>... welcome to the new normal definition of confidence.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf5.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf5_0.jpg" width="600" height="315" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fnews%2F2014-07-29%2Fdeadbeat-nation-shocking-77-million-americans-face-debt-collectors&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFQjCNGvxVOVYSdj4rIZJJwJJmdI3Mfpxg"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Is it any wonder when 77 million Americans have debt past due...!</strong></span></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Chart: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="961" height="505" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140729_conf5.jpg?1406644312" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/behold-new-normal-definition-confidence#comments headlines New Normal Tue, 29 Jul 2014 14:43:56 +0000 Tyler Durden 491952 at http://www.zerohedge.com Deadbeat Nation: A Shocking 77 Million Americans Face Debt Collectors http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/deadbeat-nation-shocking-77-million-americans-face-debt-collectors <p>We have been warning for years that as a result of the Fed's disastrous policies, America's middle class is being disintegrated and US adults are surviving only thanks to insurmountable debtloads. But not even we had an appreciation of how serious the problem truly was. We now know, and it is a shocker: according to <a href="http://www.urban.org/publications/413191.html">new research </a>by the Urban Institute, <strong>about 77 million Americans have a debt in collections.</strong></p> <p>The breakdown by region:</p> <p>As the <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/07/29/a-third-of-consumers-had-debts-in-collections-last-year/?hpid=z4">Washington Post reports</a>, that amounts to 35 percent of consumers with credit files or data reported to a major credit bureau, according to the study released Tuesday by the Urban Institute and Encore Capital Group's Consumer Credit Research Institute. "It’s a stunning number," said Caroline Ratcliffe, senior fellow at the Urban Institute and author of the report. "And it threads through nearly all communities."</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/debt%20by%20region.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/debt%20by%20region_0.jpg" width="600" height="289" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/debt-in-collections.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/debt-in-collections_0.png" width="601" height="448" /></a></p> <p>More:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The report analyzed 2013 credit data from TransUnion to calculate how many Americans were falling behind on their bills. It looked at how many people had non-mortgage bills, such as credit card bills, child support payments and medical bills, that are so past due that the account has since been closed and placed in collections.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Researchers relied on a random sample of 7 million people with data reported to the credit bureaus in 2013 to estimate what share of the 220 million Americans with credit files have debts in collection. About 22 million low-income adults who did not have credit files were not represented in the study.</p> </blockquote> <p>While we understand why someone owing tens if not hundreds of thousands can just do what the US government does so well, and simply decide to stop paying their debt (if unlike the government, without the option to roll it), what is scary is that there are people who are in collection on amount as tiny as $25.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The debts sent to collections ranged from $25 on the low end and to more than $125,000 on the high end. Many consumers were burned for relatively small amounts -- about 10 percent of the debts were smaller than $125, Ratcliffe says. But the median debt, $1,350, is still pretty substantial, she adds.</p> </blockquote> <p>The geographic breakdown is not surprising, headed by the state that hosts Las Vegas, where an unprecedented 47% of all consumers have debt in some stage of collection.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Nevada was hit the hardest, with 47 percent of consumers with a credit file showing a debt in collections -- a mark researchers said may stem from the housing crisis when people struggling to keep up with their mortgage payments may have fallen behind on other financial obligations.</p> </blockquote> <p>It's not just Nevada. It's, well, everywhere else too:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>In 12 states, including the District of Columbia, more than 40 percent of residents with a credit file have a bill in collections. That includes Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and West Virginia.</p> </blockquote> <p>But how is it possible that tens of millions of Americans are in such dire straits? After all, banks have been reporting better delinquency data for years. The answer: the study found that the share of people with debt past due, meaning they are at least 30 days late with payment on a non-mortgage debt, was much smaller: 1 in 20 people. That includes people who are late with credit card bills, student loan payments and auto loans. The majority of those people, 79 percent, also had debt in collections. <strong>However, because certain bills, such as medical bills and parking tickets, may not show up on a person's credit score until they are sent to collections, the total share of people falling behind on their bills may actually be much higher.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/Debt-past-due.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/Debt-past-due_0.png" width="597" height="425" /></a></p> <p>The flowchart:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/debt%20past%20due.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/debt%20past%20due_0.jpg" width="600" height="339" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And the breakdown by state: the stunner, again, is that the share of Americans with debt in collections is <em><strong>7 times greater </strong></em>than those with merely debt past due:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/collections%20by%20state.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/collections%20by%20state_0.jpg" width="600" height="785" /></a></p> <p>The report's punchline, <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/study-35-percent-us-facing-debt-collectors-24752030#.U9emBavW_7s.twitter">via AP</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The Urban Institute's Ratcliffe said that stagnant incomes are key to why some parts of the country are struggling to repay their debt.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Wages have barely kept up with inflation during the five-year recovery</strong>, according to Labor Department figures. And a separate measure by Wells Fargo found that after-tax income fell for the bottom 20 percent of earners during the same period.</p> </blockquote> <p>But.. recovery? And consumer confidence at 2007 highs? Or did the Conference Board decide to just poll the residents of 15 CPW and 740 Park?</p> <p>Of course, there is a simple solution to all of the above: instead of being deadbeats, if only these 77 million Americans had BTFD as the the S&amp;P's chief market valuation officer, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke before her, had advised them, then the US would truly be a crony capitalist-cum-socialist nirvana by now. Sadly, the way it is right now, the US Department of Truth will have to put this record number of deadbeats out of the labor pool (and hook them to the government handouts machine), while pretending that what once used to be known as the economy, and now is nothing but pure propaganda, is getting "better."</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1033" height="771" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/debt-in-collections.png?1406644348" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/deadbeat-nation-shocking-77-million-americans-face-debt-collectors#comments Ben Bernanke Ben Bernanke Conference Board Consumer Confidence Consumer Credit Credit Research Florida Janet Yellen Las Vegas Mexico recovery South Carolina Wells Fargo Tue, 29 Jul 2014 14:27:13 +0000 Tyler Durden 491951 at http://www.zerohedge.com Consumer Confidence Explodes Higher To October 2007 Highs http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/consumer-confidence-explodes-higher-october-2007-highs <p>On the heels of UMich confidence tumbling to 4-month lows, the Conference Board's consumer confidence exploded higher to the <strong>highest since October 2007</strong>. This is the 3rd monthly rise in a row and the biggest beat in 13 months all <strong>led by a spike in future expectations</strong> to its highest since Feb 2011.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>3 months up in a row and highest since Oct 2007</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf3.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf3_0.jpg" width="600" height="319" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Still quite a divergence between government and non-government surveys...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf2_0.jpg" width="600" height="316" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The last time the conference board confidence diverged this much from UMich confidence was June 2007 and that did not end well...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf1_0.jpg" width="600" height="314" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Does this look like a confident set of survey respondents...</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Plan To Buy In Next 6 Months:</strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>Car 11.6% vs 12.2% in June</strong></li> <li><strong>Home 4.4% vs 5.4% in June (lowest since Feb 2013)<br /></strong></li> <li><strong>Major Appliance 46.5% vs 50.4% in June</strong></li> </ul> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf4.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_conf4_0.jpg" width="600" height="315" /></a></p> <p>But Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“Consumer confidence increased for the <strong>third consecutive month and is now at its highest level since October 2007</strong> (95.2).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions, while <strong>brighter short-term outlooks for the economy and jobs, and to a lesser extent personal income, drove the gain in expectations.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Recent improvements in consumer confidence, in particular expectations, <strong>suggest the recent strengthening in growth is likely to continue into the second half of this year.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Odd that she would claim a brighter outlook for personal income... given the reality</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/June%20Real%20avg%20hourly%20wages.jpg" width="600" height="374" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="957" height="504" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140729_conf2.jpg?1406642914" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/consumer-confidence-explodes-higher-october-2007-highs#comments Conference Board Consumer Confidence Personal Income Reality Tue, 29 Jul 2014 14:08:45 +0000 Tyler Durden 491950 at http://www.zerohedge.com Banco Espirito Santo Plunges: Shareholder Meeting Cancelled Due To "Unexpected Facts" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/banco-espirito-santo-plunges-shareholder-meeting-cancelled-due-unexpected-facts <p>With <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-24/third-and-final-espirito-santo-holdco-bankrupt-banco-next">all other operating holdcos having already declared bankruptcy,</a> the anxiety over Banco Espirito Santo is growing (<a href="http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2F2014-07-23%2Fbes-rises-as-goldman-sachs-and-d-e-shaw-buy-shares.html&amp;sa=D&amp;sntz=1&amp;usg=AFQjCNFZvzqlc3mMK5WjIFX6J__0TqmAEw">despite DE Shaw and Goldman Sachs recommending investors buy the shares</a>). Despite Bank of Portugal reassurance last night that "BES is able to raise capital), the stock is plunging on news of "unexpected facts" this morning...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO SAYS SHAREHOLDER MEETING WAS CANCELLED DUE TO "UNEXPECTED FACTS''</strong></li> <li><strong>*BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO FALLS MORE THAN 13% IN LISBON TRADING</strong></li> </ul> <p>Remember, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-22/portugal-president-admits-espirito-santo-failure-could-be-systemic-another-holdco-go">this is systemic (as the Portugues President has warned)</a>, and the <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-28/mapping-global-contagion-portugals-systemic-banking-crisis">contagion is potentially global...</a> not "contained."</p> <p>3 down, 1 to go?</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140724_bES.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140724_bES.jpg" width="479" height="498" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But The Bank of Portugal reassured everyone last night...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO IS ABLE TO RAISE CAPITAL: BANK OF PORTUGAL</strong></li> <li><strong>*BANK OF PORTUGAL SAYS BES SOLVENCY IS ASSURED</strong></li> </ul> <p>But now this...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO SAYS SHAREHOLDER MEETING WAS CANCELLED</strong></li> <li><strong>*BES SAYS MEETING CANCELLED DUE TO ``UNEXPECTED FACTS''</strong></li> <li><strong>*BES SAYS `UNEXPECTED FACTS' INCLUDE ESFG FILING FOR PROTECTION</strong></li> <li><strong>*BES SAYS ESFG AND CREDIT AGRICOLE WITHDRAW PROPOSALS</strong></li> </ul> <p>And the result...</p> <ul> <li><strong>*BANCO ESPIRITO SANTO FALLS MORE THAN 13% IN LISBON TRADING</strong></li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_bes.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_bes_0.jpg" width="600" height="314" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>and this could go global...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140728_BES.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140728_BES_0.jpg" width="600" height="1062" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="958" height="502" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140729_bes.jpg?1406641600" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/banco-espirito-santo-plunges-shareholder-meeting-cancelled-due-unexpected-facts#comments DE Shaw Goldman Sachs goldman sachs Portugal Tue, 29 Jul 2014 13:47:08 +0000 Tyler Durden 491949 at http://www.zerohedge.com What San Francisco Housing Reveals About The Fourth Global Liquidity Bubble http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/what-san-francisco-housing-reveals-about-fourth-global-liquidity-bubble <p>A month ago, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-24/americas-most-important-housing-market-signals-red-alert-housing-bubble-watchers">when we reported </a>on the signal America's "most important housing market" is sending we said the following:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>When it comes to critical housing markets in the US, none is more important than San Francisco.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Courtesy of its location, not only does it reflect the general Fed-driven liquidity bubble which is the tide rising all housing boats across the US, but due to its proximity to both Silicon Valley and China, it also benefits from two other liquidity bubbles: <strong>that of tech, and of course, the Chinese $25 trillion financial debt monster, </strong>where since the local housing bubble has burst, local oligarchs have no choice but to dump their cash abroad.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It is no surprise that during ever single previous bubble peak, San Francisco home prices managed to post a 20% annual increase, starting with the dot com bubble in the year 2000, the first (not to be confused with the current) housing bubble peaking around 2005, and then the European sovereign debt bubble.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Which is why, while today's Case Shiller data was widely disappointing across the board, indicating a significant slowdown in price gains (and on a sequential seasonally adjusted basis, practically a decline), the one market we paid particular attention to was San Francisco. What we found is a red flag for everyone waiting to time the bursting of the latest housing bubble. Because after an unlucky 13 months of posting consecutive 20% Y/Y price gains, the San Francisco bubble appears to have finally burst, <strong>posting "just" an 18.2% price increase, the lowest since January of 2013.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So, has the global coordinated credit bubble burst? </p> </blockquote> <p>The answer is still unclear. But what the chart below shows is quite clear: the relentless appreciation in the San Francisco housing market is over, and after rising by 18.2% in April, in May the San Fran market posted a mere 15.4% Y/Y price increase: the lowest since 2012. And while the Fed's liquidity injections continue, if only for a few more months, and the second dot com bubble is clearing raging as the recent ridiculous Zillow-Trulia deal confirmed, it appears that the "<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>?</strong></em></span>" bubble (as defined) is now well in its deflationary phase. Any attempts to restore the upmove will certainly require trillions more in fresh liquidity.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/San%20Fran%20housing%20May.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/San%20Fran%20housing%20May_0.jpg" width="600" height="467" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="774" height="602" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/San%20Fran%20housing%20May.jpg?1406640596" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/what-san-francisco-housing-reveals-about-fourth-global-liquidity-bubble#comments China Housing Bubble Housing Market Liquidity Bubble None Sovereign Debt Tue, 29 Jul 2014 13:30:09 +0000 Tyler Durden 491948 at http://www.zerohedge.com Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Dec 2011, Miss 2nd Month In A Row http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/case-shiller-home-prices-tumble-most-dec-2011-miss-2nd-month-row <p>But it was supposed to be the weather? S&amp;P/Case-Shiller home prices dropped in May and missed expectations for the 2nd month in a row. <strong>Against a forecast rise on 0.3%, prices dropped in May by 0.3% - the biggest drop since December 2011</strong>. It appears we are going to need more Chinese hot money flow buyers. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_SPCS.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_SPCS_0.jpg" width="600" height="322" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The May inflection point in the seasonally adjusted data is quite obvious:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/CS%20May%20NSA.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/CS%20May%20NSA_0.jpg" width="600" height="308" /></a></p> <p>Of note, while in April Case-Shiller reported only 5 cities out of the tracked 20 posting sequential price declines, in May this number has soared to 14. And so the fourth dead cat bounce in housing appears to be over.<br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/Case%20Shiller%20May.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/07/Case%20Shiller%20May_0.jpg" width="600" height="392" /></a></p> <p>Finally, from the report itself:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“Home prices rose at their slowest pace since February of last year,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. “<strong>The 10- and 20-City Composites posted just over 9%, well below expectations. Month-to-month, all cities are posting gains before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment 14 of 20 were lower.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Year-over-year, nine cities – Las Vegas (16.9%), San Francisco (15.4%), Miami (13.2%), San Diego (12.4%), Los Angeles (12.3%), Detroit (11.9%), Atlanta (11.2%), Tampa (10.2%) and Portland (10.0%) – posted double-digit increases in May 2014. The Sun Belt continues to lead with seven of the top eight performing cities. Eighteen of 20 cities had lower year-over-year numbers than last month; San Francisco and San Diego saw their year-over-year figures decelerate by about three percentage points.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Housing has been turning in mixed economic numbers in the last few months. Prices and sales of existing homes have shown improvement while construction and sales of new homes continue to lag. At the same time, the broader economy and especially employment are showing larger improvements and substantial gains.”</p> </blockquote> <p><em>Source: <a href="https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/103542_cshomeprice-release-0729.pdf?force_download=true">Case Shiller</a></em><a href="https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/103542_cshomeprice-release-0729.pdf?force_download=true"></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1311" height="673" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/CS%20May%20NSA.jpg?1406639566" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/case-shiller-home-prices-tumble-most-dec-2011-miss-2nd-month-row#comments Case-Shiller Detroit Las Vegas Tue, 29 Jul 2014 13:06:04 +0000 Tyler Durden 491947 at http://www.zerohedge.com USDJPY Surge Sends Stocks Higher As Bond Yields Tumble http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/usdjpy-surge-sends-stocks-higher-bond-yields-tumble <p>This morning makes as much sense as most mornings. US equity markets, after some weakness in the European session have been lifted wholesale towards Friday's highs on the heels of a <strong>USDJPY 102 stop-running algo</strong>. At the same time bonds are being bnought aggressively with 10Y and 30Y yields now lower on the week. <strong>The USD index is surging higher on EUR and GBP weakness</strong> and commodities are sliding.</p> <p>Normal?</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open4.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open4_0.jpg" width="600" height="353" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>USDJPY in charge of stocks... but that 102 stops have been run now</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open_0.jpg" width="600" height="350" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And bonds are rallying...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open1_0.jpg" width="600" height="314" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The USD Index is jumping...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open2_0.jpg" width="600" height="313" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>and Commodities are sliding...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open3.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140729_open3_0.jpg" width="600" height="313" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="851" height="497" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140729_open.jpg?1406637826" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/usdjpy-surge-sends-stocks-higher-bond-yields-tumble#comments Bond Equity Markets Tue, 29 Jul 2014 12:44:02 +0000 Tyler Durden 491946 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Panic Containment Team Speaks: Ebola Poses "Little Risk" To The US, CDC Claims: Is It Wrong? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/ebola-poses-little-risk-us-cdc-claims-it-wrong <p>In the aftermath of the news from the past week that at least two US citizens have been infected with the Ebola virus, a very unpleasant if nagging question has appeared: can the virus spread to the US? <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ebola-virus-outbreak/little-risk-ebolas-just-one-flight-away-risk-low-cdc-n166931">According to NBC</a>, "the Ebola virus, which has infected two U.S. humanitarian workers in Liberia, is only a short plane ride from any city on Earth. <strong>But federal health officials say it’s not a big worry for most Americans</strong>." </p> <p>Maybe it should be. </p> <p>Recall that last week's Ebola stunner came when not only did an Ebola patient die from the disease in the world's 4th most populous city, Nigeria's Lagos, <strong>but when he was intercepted while at the airport</strong>: how many people he may have come in contact with is anyone's guess even if the government swears they have all been quarantined. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>It’s the first time this virus has moved by jet, even though public health experts love to warn that any disease is just a flight away from anywhere with an airport. </p> </blockquote> <p>Perhaps the fact that the CDC had to go out as far as making an official statement for the record shows just how increasingly worried Americans are. According to the Centers for Disease Control, "<strong>Ebola poses little risk to the U.S. general population</strong>,” Stephan Monroe of CDC’s National Center for Emerging &amp; Zoonotic Infectious Diseases told reporters in a conference call. It’s because you have to be in direct contact with someone who is ill to become infected.</p> <script id="metamorph-992-start" type="text/x-placeholder"></script><p><iframe src="http://player.theplatform.com/p/2E2eJC/nbcNewsOffsite?guid=nn_02_js_ebola_140727" width="635" height="500" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <script id="metamorph-992-end" type="text/x-placeholder"></script><p>“Transmission is through direct contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person,” Monroe said. That includes vomit, blood or diarrhea. “Individuals who are not symptomatic are not contagious,” he said.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The incubation period can last for as long as 21 days, meaning it can take 21 days for someone to develop symptoms after being in contact with an infected person. So in theory, someone could be infected and get on a plane to travel to the U.S. before he or she got sick. But the odds of this are low.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>There’s no need to control travel in and out of the U.S. CDC says. It has quarantine stations in major airports and agents can forcibly isolate or quarantine people with symptoms of Ebola and other diseases such as cholera, tuberculosis, plague or bird flu. </p> </blockquote> <p>How does the CDC hope to contain the potential threat? Apparently so far the first and only line of defense is... interrogation? <strong>Careful questioning can usually rule out a disease such as Ebola. </strong>In this case, it would be asking people if they’ve been to West Africa in recent weeks or in close contact with someone who had been and who was ill. One wonders how honest potential carriers would be if they knew the rest of their short lives could be spent under CDC quarantine. </p> <p>"U.S. health experts pulled this off with MERS -- the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome virus, which was carried into the country twice by travelers, both of whom recovered fully without infecting anybody else."</p> <p>And another denial:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“The likelihood of this spreading out of West Africa is very low,” Monroe said. While it’s possible someone ill could get on a plane, they couldn’t spread the virus to someone who just happened to be sitting nearby. “It is very unlikely they would be able to spread disease to their fellow passengers,” Monroe said. CDC worries more about airborne viruses such as measles, which can spread silently. </p> </blockquote> <p>And even more attempts to contain any possible panic:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“People are not infectious prior to becoming symptomatic,” he stressed. And once in the U.S., doctors should isolate a patient quickly. “We are fairly confident that the standard of care in the U.S. would prevent much of the transmission of the virus were to show up here,” Monroe said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“<strong>We do not anticipate this will spread in the US if an infected person is hospitalized here but we are taking action now by alerting healthcare workers in the US and reminding them how to isolate and test suspected patients while following strict infection control procedures</strong>.” CDC Director Dr. Tom Frieden added in a statement.</p> </blockquote> <p>The CDC is correct about the infectious phase. The problem is that while Ebola symptoms are quite glaring, such as fever, throwing up, and general pain, only about half of all Ebola cases show the bleeding that so frightened people, and that’s only in very advanced cases. The rest of the symptoms can be confused for your garden variety flu.</p> <p>Still, despite all assurances,&nbsp; the CDC has issued a “level 2” alert, which cautions people in the affected region to avoid contact with anyone who seems infected. CDC also issued a health alert, a reminder to doctors in the U.S. "<strong>Ebola virus disease poses little risk to the U.S. general population at this time. However, U.S. healthcare workers are advised to be alert for signs and symptoms of Ebola virus disease in patients with compatible illness who have a recent (within 21 days) travel history to countries where the outbreak is occurring, and should consider isolation of those patients meeting these criteria, pending diagnostic testing</strong>," it reads. </p> <p>Bloomberg has some more details on the potential spread of the disease which has so far managed to spread beyond Africa only once, but as Bloomberg notes, "that doesn’t mean it can’t happen now, infectious disease experts warn."</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The symptoms appear from two days to three weeks after infection, meaning it’s possible for an infected person who doesn’t feel ill to board a plane, said Ben Neuman, a virologist at the University of Reading in the U.K. Since Ebola in its earliest stages can resemble nothing more than flu, no one else would know either, he said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The symptoms appear from two days to three weeks after infection, meaning it’s possible for an infected person who doesn’t feel ill to board a plane, said Ben Neuman, a virologist at the University of Reading in the U.K. Since Ebola in its earliest stages can resemble nothing more than flu, no one else would know either, he said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“One person per plane load would have something that you would possibly call flu-like symptoms,” Neuman said in a telephone interview. “Do you want to detain all those people coming into your airport? Do you have the manpower to do that, and send them all for testing? It’s expensive, and difficult.”</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The question of trans-continent infection became more key this week after Patrick Sawyer, a Liberian government worker who took a July 20 flight to Lagos, Nigeria, died from Ebola five days later. His death gave Africa’s most populous nation its first case, a frightening hint at how global air travel may enable the spread of disease.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“We’ve known it’s a risk ever since the beginning of the Ebola outbreak, and now it’s finally happened,” Neuman said. “He could have gone anywhere on this flight.”</p> </blockquote> <p>The 1994 case:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Fruit bats are thought to be the natural host of Ebola virus, according to the WHO. Monkeys, chimpanzees, gorillas, porcupines and forest antelope can also be infected, and human outbreaks can begin when people eat the meat of infected animals, according to the WHO.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The only case in which an Ebola victim was known to be taken out of Africa by aircraft came in 1994, when a 34-year-old Swiss zoologist became infected with the virus while performing an autopsy on a chimpanzee in Ivory Coast.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Eight days later, she developed chills, then diarrhea, an all-body rash, temporary memory loss and was flown to Switzerland by air ambulance for treatment, accompanied by health workers wearing masks, gloves and gowns. She recovered without infecting anyone else.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Ebola outbreak is expected to go on for some time and will be difficult to stop as it can easily “re-ignite” from even one case, the CDC’s Monroe said. Even if there are no new cases, it would be 42 days before health workers would be sure the outbreak was over.</p> </blockquote> <p>But the biggest smoking gun, and perhaps the reason why 2014 may be the new 1994, is this:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>wife &amp; children of a Texas doc working in Liberia w/ Ebola patients, returned to America last week, days b4 Brantly -came down w/ Ebola WTF?</p> <p>— Robert Passarella (@robpas) <a href="https://twitter.com/robpas/statuses/493853441828343810">July 28, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="2361" height="1509" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/ebola%20masks.jpg?1406636117" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/ebola-poses-little-risk-us-cdc-claims-it-wrong#comments BATS Middle East NBC Switzerland Tue, 29 Jul 2014 12:17:38 +0000 Tyler Durden 491945 at http://www.zerohedge.com Frontrunning: July 29 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/frontrunning-july-29 <ul> <li>EU finalises Russian sanctions as BP warns of impact on business (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c0965af8-16fe-11e4-8617-00144feabdc0.html">FT</a>)</li> <li>Geopolitical Risk Rises for Global Investors (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/geopolitical-risk-rise-for-global-investors.html">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Jaded Argentines brace for looming debt default (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/29/us-argentina-debt-insight-idUSKBN0FY09U20140729">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>In Argentina, Mix of Money and Politics Stirs Intrigue Around Kirchner (<a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/in-argentina-mix-of-money-and-politics-stirs-intrigue-around-kirchner-1406601002">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Mom ‘Trusting God’ for Ebola-Infected U.S. Doctor’s Life (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-28/mom-trusting-god-for-ebola-infected-u-s-doctor-s-life.html">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Thanks NSA: Tech Companies Reel as NSA's Spying Tarnishes Reputations (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/tech-companies-reel-as-nsa-spying-mars-image-for-clients.html">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Goldman unit eyes foray into China amid metals financing scandal (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/29/us-china-warehousing-goldman-exclusive-idUSKBN0FY09S20140729">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Cash out time: London’s Gherkin Tower Offered for Sale by Its Lenders (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/london-s-gherkin-tower-offered-for-sale-by-its-lenders.html">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Apenomics strikes again: McDonald’s Japan axes profit guidance amid food safety scandal (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/68a68568-16ed-11e4-8617-00144feabdc0.html">FT</a>)</li> <li>Do you see what happens Larry when you are the only USDJPY bid? Nomura Profit Falls More Than Estimated on Broking Slump (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-29/nomura-profit-declines-for-second-quarter-as-market-cools.html">BBG</a>)</li> <li>UBS, Deutsche drawn into ‘dark pool’ probes (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/54a928a6-16dc-11e4-8617-00144feabdc0.html">FT</a>)</li> <li>Morgan Stanley Said to Boost Junior Banker Salaries 25% (<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-28/morgan-stanley-said-to-boost-junior-banker-salaries-25-.html">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Ban gold, diamonds? Gold, diamonds feed Central African religious violence (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/29/us-centralafrica-resources-insight-idUSKBN0FY0MN20140729">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Italian police seize €104m from Nomura after fraud probe (<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0d494cd4-1641-11e4-93ec-00144feabdc0.html">FT</a>)</li> <li>Deutsche Bank Reports Rise in Pretax Profit (<a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/deutsche-bank-posts-fall-in-second-quarter-profit-1406610614?mod=djemalertEuropenews&amp;cb=logged0.7084680271479977">WSJ</a>)</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Overnight Media Digest</strong></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">WSJ</span></em></p> <p>* Israel's leaders said they were escalating the military campaign in Gaza and told the country to prepare for a prolonged operation, defying international demands for an immediate cease-fire. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/1rLLcop" title="http://on.wsj.com/1rLLcop">http://on.wsj.com/1rLLcop</a>)</p> <p>* Pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine saw some of their worst battlefield setbacks in weeks Monday as the West agreed on tougher sanctions aimed at forcing Moscow to cut support for the militias-posing fresh challenges on two fronts for Russian President Vladimir Putin. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/UHNOF3" title="http://on.wsj.com/UHNOF3">http://on.wsj.com/UHNOF3</a>)</p> <p>* The battle for America's poorest consumers intensified on Monday with Dollar Tree Inc's agreement to buy rival Family Dollar Stores Inc for about $8.5 billion. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/X3tX58" title="http://on.wsj.com/X3tX58">http://on.wsj.com/X3tX58</a>)</p> <p>* Negotiations between Bank of America Corp and the Justice Department have hit a snag over whether the firm should pay a cash penalty for the dealings of Countrywide Financial Corp and Merrill Lynch &amp; Co Inc. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/1rzefYR" title="http://on.wsj.com/1rzefYR">http://on.wsj.com/1rzefYR</a>)</p> <p>* Money-laundering allegations against Argentine businessman Lázaro Báez are focusing attention on the wealth of Argentine President Cristina Kirchner and her late husband Néstor Kirchner. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/1tV7Cl8" title="http://on.wsj.com/1tV7Cl8">http://on.wsj.com/1tV7Cl8</a>)</p> <p>* A Chinese government anticorruption investigation that already has swept aside dozens of officials is now stretching into Canada. A shake-up has hit state-run China National Petroleum Corp.'s Canadian operations and a billion-dollar oil-sands project is now in limbo. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/WL2fu2" title="http://on.wsj.com/WL2fu2">http://on.wsj.com/WL2fu2</a>)</p> <p>* Zillow Inc and Trulia Inc, the two online real-estate giants that announced plans to merge, have a message for real-estate agents that have grown increasingly concerned about their market clout: We're partners, not competitors. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/1o6txQV" title="http://on.wsj.com/1o6txQV">http://on.wsj.com/1o6txQV</a>)</p> <p>* Hundreds of small and regional banks are clinging to a practice that can cause consumers to incur multiple overdraft fees in the same day, even as the biggest lenders are backing away. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/1l8XwHW" title="http://on.wsj.com/1l8XwHW">http://on.wsj.com/1l8XwHW</a>)</p> <p>* Oracle Corp cut its yearly stock-option grants to Chief Executive Larry Ellison and other top executives nearly a year after a wave of shareholder opposition to compensation paid to the chief. (<a href="http://on.wsj.com/1l8VvM1" title="http://on.wsj.com/1l8VvM1">http://on.wsj.com/1l8VvM1</a>)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">FT</span></em></p> <p>Officials from China's State Administration for Industry and Commerce conducted unannounced visits on Monday to some of Microsoft Corp's local offices, making it the latest U.S. company to be targeted by an antitrust investigation in China.</p> <p>Bank of Cyprus has raised 1 billion euros ($1.34 billion) from selling shares to investors including U.S. private equity specialist Wilbur Ross and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.</p> <p>Aberdeen Asset Management Chief Executive Officer Martin Gilbert shrugged off the investment group's fifth successive quarter of outflows as its exposure to emerging markets proved costly.</p> <p>Dollar Tree has said it will buy Family Dollar for $8.5 billion, marrying two of the United States' largest discount stores at a time when changing consumer habits are piling pressure on retailers across the country.</p> <p>China's Baidu, a search engine that has mimicked U.S. technology group Google Inc's biggest innovations, is now experimenting with its own version of a "highly autonomous" self-driving car.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">NYT</span></em></p> <p>* An international court has awarded the shareholders of the defunct Yukos oil company more than $50 billion, ruling that the Russian government wrongly seized the company from one of the country's most powerful oligarchs. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1tUR50D" title="http://nyti.ms/1tUR50D">http://nyti.ms/1tUR50D</a>)</p> <p>* China has named Microsoft among the foreign technology companies likely to come under tighter government checks for security risks after the revelations by Edward Snowden about the U.S. government surveillance. Officials from the State Administration for Industry and Commerce visited Microsoft offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chengdu, Joanna Li. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1nBlXCs" title="http://nyti.ms/1nBlXCs">http://nyti.ms/1nBlXCs</a>)</p> <p>* The United States and Europe agreed to sharply escalate economic sanctions against Russia amid worries that Moscow is stepping up its intervention in Ukraine and may be setting the stage for an outright invasion. The two sides settled on measures that would target Russia's financial, energy and military sectors. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1qcc2l1" title="http://nyti.ms/1qcc2l1">http://nyti.ms/1qcc2l1</a>)</p> <p>* Dollar Tree Inc proposed an $8.5 billion takeover of Family Dollar Stores Inc that will form a new giant of the dollar-discount industry. By buying Family Dollar, Dollar Tree will expand markedly, to 13,000 stores in 48 states and in Canada, as well as to $18 billion in annual revenue. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1rZLeGN" title="http://nyti.ms/1rZLeGN">http://nyti.ms/1rZLeGN</a>)</p> <p>* Wall Street investment banks, led by JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co and Goldman Sachs Group Inc, are estimated to have collected, or will soon collect, nearly $1 billion in fees over the last three years advising and persuading American companies to move the address of their headquarters abroad. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1Asfmzz" title="http://nyti.ms/1Asfmzz">http://nyti.ms/1Asfmzz</a>)</p> <p>* Clarence Otis, chairman and CEO of Darden Restaurants Inc, will step down when the board chooses his successor, or by the year end. The move came on the day that Darden completed the sale of the Red Lobster, the seafood chain that gave rise to the restaurant's empire, in a transaction that was hotly opposed by the activist investors. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1tl8Yba" title="http://nyti.ms/1tl8Yba">http://nyti.ms/1tl8Yba</a>)</p> <p>* Morgan Stanley plans to increase base salaries for junior and mid level bankers by as much as 25 percent. The change will apply to associates and vice presidents in investment banking and capital markets. The bump in base salary is intended to provide the bankers with more cash in the near term, since bonuses are often deferred into the future. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1nPCkwl" title="http://nyti.ms/1nPCkwl">http://nyti.ms/1nPCkwl</a>)</p> <p>* The Lloyds Banking Group agreed to pay more than $380 million to British and United States authorities to resolve investigations into the manipulation of rates, including one used to determine fees paid by Lloyds for taxpayer-backed funding during the financial crisis. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1rz3GoL" title="http://nyti.ms/1rz3GoL">http://nyti.ms/1rz3GoL</a>)</p> <p>* The Federal Aviation Administration said on Monday it planned to fine Southwest Airlines $12 million for repair violations on some of its Boeing 737 jets, citing some faulty repairs the airlines made since 2006. Southwest has 30 days to respond to the complaint and can negotiate to reduce the fine. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1tlcO4c" title="http://nyti.ms/1tlcO4c">http://nyti.ms/1tlcO4c</a>)</p> <p>* Governor Andrew Cuomo delivered a feisty and unrepentant defense of his handling of an anti-corruption panel he created and then abruptly shut down, after five days in seclusion during which he encountered some of the harshest criticism he has faced as governor. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/X7yDqG" title="http://nyti.ms/X7yDqG">http://nyti.ms/X7yDqG</a>)</p> <p>* Virgin America, the sleek low-cost American airline partly owned by Richard Branson, filed for an initial public offering on Monday after posting its first annual profit. The airline gave a placeholder fund-raising target of $115 million, a figure used only to determine filing fees. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1oE8Ctq" title="http://nyti.ms/1oE8Ctq">http://nyti.ms/1oE8Ctq</a>)</p> <p>* A judge issued a sweeping victory Monday for Rochelle Sterling, ruling that she had the authority to sell the Los Angeles Clippers to the businessman Steve Ballmer, who has agreed to pay a record $2 billion for the franchise. (<a href="http://nyti.ms/1AstfO0" title="http://nyti.ms/1AstfO0">http://nyti.ms/1AstfO0</a>)</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Canada</span></em></p> <p>THE GLOBE AND MAIL</p> <p>* Things became chaotic even before a Toronto mayoral election debate began on Monday as Mayor Rob Ford and his team drew police intervention during a dispute with organizers.(<a href="http://bit.ly/1lQP7J6" title="http://bit.ly/1lQP7J6">http://bit.ly/1lQP7J6</a>)</p> <p>* A dispute between Toronto's city council and Ontario's alcohol licensing board has left many new restaurants in the city facing months-long delays in obtaining a liquor licence, which they say may prevent them from opening at all. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1nCc7Ar" title="http://bit.ly/1nCc7Ar">http://bit.ly/1nCc7Ar</a>)</p> <p>Reports in the business section:</p> <p>* Ottawa will auction a prime chunk of the public airwaves in March next year, raising at least C$162-million for federal coffers and it hopes to prompt more competition in Canada's mobile phone market. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1l9c8XJ" title="http://bit.ly/1l9c8XJ">http://bit.ly/1l9c8XJ</a>)</p> <p>NATIONAL POST</p> <p>* Toronto Deputy Mayor Norm Kelly says it is "not unreasonable" to call on integrity commissioner Janet Leiper to complete an investigation into allegations of misconduct by Toronto Mayor Rob Ford and Councillor Doug Ford in time for the October provincial election. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1nCtuAW" title="http://bit.ly/1nCtuAW">http://bit.ly/1nCtuAW</a>)</p> <p>* The Canadian Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Developments wants to operate a shuttle service for employees between its three main buildings, two of which are only a three-minute walk apart. The department outlined the plan for the dedicated shuttle service in a tender posted earlier this month on a government website. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1k5eT1f" title="http://bit.ly/1k5eT1f">http://bit.ly/1k5eT1f</a>)</p> <p>FINANCIAL POST</p> <p>* Merger and acquisition activity is on the rise globally, and some 40 percent of Canadian firms expect to grow through deals over the next three years, a survey by Grant Thornton LLP said.(<a href="http://bit.ly/1AsCtdh" title="http://bit.ly/1AsCtdh">http://bit.ly/1AsCtdh</a>)</p> <p>* The Canada-based energy firm Athabasca Oil Corp's shares fell more than 7 percent on Monday as the company sought to reassure investors over receipt of a cash payment from Chinese energy giant, PetroChina Co Ltd. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1rMuIwk" title="http://bit.ly/1rMuIwk">http://bit.ly/1rMuIwk</a>) </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Hong Kong<br /></span></em></p> <p>SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST</p> <p>-- The head of Hong Kong's de facto central bank has rejected calls from some lawmakers to use part of the city's HK$3 trillion Exchange Fund to pay for infrastructure projects or for social welfare. Norman Chan Tak-lam, the chief executive of the Monetary Authority, said the fund needs every penny to cope with unexpected financial crises. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1uBAoev" title="http://bit.ly/1uBAoev">http://bit.ly/1uBAoev</a>)</p> <p>-- One in five diabetics in Hong Kong is under the age of 40 and the number is expected to double by 2030. A Chinese University of Hong Kong study has found that diabetes is being diagnosed in Hongkongers at a younger age, with the median age now 50, down from 57 in 1990. The youngest person with diabetes in the study was just 3 years old. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1k4Pgxr" title="http://bit.ly/1k4Pgxr">http://bit.ly/1k4Pgxr</a>)</p> <p>-- The five leading business chambers in Hong Kong formed a united front to oppose Occupy Central, warning that the pro-democracy civil disobedience movement might damage the city's economy like that caused by the political protests in Thailand. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1l8uo3D" title="http://bit.ly/1l8uo3D">http://bit.ly/1l8uo3D</a>)</p> <p>THE STANDARD</p> <p>-- Singapore is expected to return to Hong Kong an 11-year-old boy who was found wandering along Marina Promenade in the city state last week after he was allegedly dumped by his father. The father has been questioned by Hong Kong police and is out on bail. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1zomo6Z" title="http://bit.ly/1zomo6Z">http://bit.ly/1zomo6Z</a>)</p> <p>-- Chun Wo Development will explore overseas business through joint ventures and may introduce strategic shareholders, Chairman Dominic Pang Yat-ting said. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1zon24o" title="http://bit.ly/1zon24o">http://bit.ly/1zon24o</a>)</p> <p>HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL</p> <p>-- Investment fund Pacific Alliance Asia Opportunity Fund plans to sell 250 million shares, or 3.3 percent of the issued share capital, of China South City Holdings Ltd raising up to HK$1.025 billion ($132.3 million), according to a share-sale document.</p> <p>HONG KONG ECONOMIC TIMES</p> <p>-- The retail portion of the initial public offering of China's pork company WH Group Ltd is seen eight times oversubscribed in Hong Kong, according to market sources.</p> <p>APPLE DAILY</p> <p>-- Some 77 percent of 1,249 Hong Kong people interviewed in the past two days said they will not visit McDonald's restaurants in the city in the short term after the latest food scandal, according to a survey conducted by Apple Daily.</p> <p></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Britain</span></em></p> <p>The Times</p> <p>MYSTERY ABERDEEN CLIENT PULLS OUT 4.2 BLN STG</p> <p>Fears of a renewed emerging markets sell-off by investors have been fuelled after it was revealed that an anonymous client withdrew 4.2 billion pounds ($7.13 billion) from Aberdeen Asset Management, Europe's largest fund manager. (<a href="http://thetim.es/1qHXzCd" title="http://thetim.es/1qHXzCd">http://thetim.es/1qHXzCd</a>)</p> <p>ASTRA ENLISTS RIVALS IN PLAN TO DEVELOP CANCER TESTS</p> <p>AstraZeneca has signed up Swiss and Dutch rivals to create blood tests to help identify patients that will benefit from its lung cancer drugs. (<a href="http://thetim.es/1rZi4HS" title="http://thetim.es/1rZi4HS">http://thetim.es/1rZi4HS</a>)</p> <p>SKY'S THE LIMIT AS GHERKIN SALE LOOMS</p> <p>Agents have been appointed to sell the "Gherkin" skyscraper in what will be one of the most closely watched property sales in the Square Mile for years. (<a href="http://thetim.es/1mWvv60" title="http://thetim.es/1mWvv60">http://thetim.es/1mWvv60</a>)</p> <p>The Guardian</p> <p>LLOYDS SUSPENDS SEVEN PEOPLE AFTER 226 MLN STG BILL FOR RIGGING INTEREST RATES</p> <p>Lloyds Banking Group have suspended seven employees after it was hit with a 226 million pound bill from regulators on both sides of the Atlantic for rigging crucial interest rates. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1uAusSY" title="http://bit.ly/1uAusSY">http://bit.ly/1uAusSY</a>)</p> <p>RECKITT BENCKISER SET TO FLOAT U.S. ARM RB PHARMACEUTICALS</p> <p>Reckitt Benckiser, the consumer goods giant that makes Nurofen and Dettol, plans to spin off its U.S.-based pharmaceutical business. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1o7UnIi" title="http://bit.ly/1o7UnIi">http://bit.ly/1o7UnIi</a>)</p> <p>The Telegraph</p> <p>SHOULD BANKERS HAVE TO SWEAR AN OATH? SIR RICHARD LAMBERT SEEMS TO THINK SO</p> <p>The head of the review into standards in the British banking industry is this week expected to reignite the question of whether an oath for bankers is needed despite rejecting the idea when producing his original report. (<a href="http://bit.ly/X6BnVc" title="http://bit.ly/X6BnVc">http://bit.ly/X6BnVc</a>)</p> <p>VIRGIN AMERICA FILES FOR U.S. IPO</p> <p>Billionaire entrepreneur Richard Branson could be in line for a $220 million windfall, after a bold gamble to launch Virgin America, his low-cost U.S. airline, in the teeth of the biggest crisis the industry had ever seen. (<a href="http://bit.ly/1ArCXAp" title="http://bit.ly/1ArCXAp">http://bit.ly/1ArCXAp</a>)</p> <p>Sky News</p> <p>EX-TESCO CHIEF TO CHAIR STRUGGLING MORRISONS</p> <p>Andrew Higginson, a former finance director of Tesco , is to become the next chairman of Wm Morrison, the UK's fourth-biggest grocer, as it combats falling sales amid competition from lower-priced rivals. (<a href="http://bit.ly/X559tx" title="http://bit.ly/X559tx">http://bit.ly/X559tx</a>)</p> <p></p> <p><strong>Fly On The Wall Pre-Market Buzz</strong></p> <p>ECONOMIC REPORTS</p> <p>Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:<br />Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for May at 9:00--consensus up 9.9% from last year<br />Consumer confidence for July at 10:00--consensus 85.5</p> <p>ANALYST RESEARCH</p> <p>Upgrades</p> <p>Albemarle (ALB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Topeka<br />Costco (COST) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman<br />Family Dollar (FDO) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray<br />Ferrellgas Partners LP (FGP) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup<br />Higher One (ONE) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Piper Jaffray<br />MarkWest Energy (MWE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wunderlich<br />Matador (MTDR) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital<br />MicroStrategy (MSTR) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities<br />Sally Beauty (SBH) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup<br />Zions Bancorp (ZION) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein</p> <p>Downgrades</p> <p>AcelRx (ACRX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray<br />Alliance Fiber Optic (AFOP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley<br />Allstate (ALL) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair<br />Avery Dennison (AVY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Topeka<br />Barnes Group (B) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank<br />Black Diamond (BDE) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray<br />BreitBurn Energy (BBEP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup<br />CoreLogic (CLGX) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette<br />Dollar Tree (DLTR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital<br />First Potomac (FPO) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James<br />Golar LNG Partners (GMLP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup<br />Horizon Pharma (HZNP) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray<br />Legacy Reserves (LGCY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup<br />RBC Bearings (ROLL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman<br />Regal Entertainment (RGC) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Ascendiant<br />Thoratec (THOR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo<br />Trulia (TRLA) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham<br />Vanguard Natural (VNR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup<br />Wal-Mart (WMT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman</p> <p>Initiations</p> <p>Abengoa Yield (ABY) initiated with a Neutral at HSBC<br />Boston Scientific (BSX) initiated with a Neutral at Sterne Agee<br />St. Jude Medical (STJ) initiated with a Neutral at Sterne Agee<br />&nbsp;<br />COMPANY NEWS</p> <p>Darden (DRI) Chairman and CEO Clarence Otis to step down, board to separate roles. The company appointed lead independent director Charles Ledsinger, Jr., as independent non-executive chairman<br />Darden (DRI) completed sale of Red Lobster to Golden Gate Capital<br />UBS (UBS) said 'responding to inquiries' on dark pools<br />Airbus (EADSY) terminated purchase order with Skymark Airlines for A380s<br />Carlyle Group (CG) to purchase full ownership stake of Acosta from Thomas H. Lee firm<br />Arrowhead Research (ARWR) CEo Christopher Anzalone told CNBC he is optimistic on Hep B trial data out in Q3 and that the company has enough cash through Phase 3</p> <p>EARNINGS</p> <p>Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:</p> <p>Aetna (AET), BP (BP), United Therapeutics (UTHR), M.D.C. Holdings (MDC), Spirit Airlines (SAVE), ExlService (EXLS), Headwaters (HW), Portland General Electric (POR), PGT, Inc. (PGTI), Great Southern Bancorp (GSBC), Silicon Motion (SIMO), Anthera Pharmaceuticals (ANTH), Eastman Chemical (EMN), German American Bancorp (GABC), American Financial Group (AFG), Masco (MAS), Seacoast Banking (SBCF), HealthSouth (HLS), Park National (PRK), Advent Software (ADVS), Denny's (DENN), Mavenir Systems (MVNR), Luminex (LMNX), Cognex (CGNX), Innophos Holdings (IPHS), Alliance Fiber Optic (AFOP), Intevac (IVAC), GigOptix (GIG), Ducommun (DCO), Bank of Hawaii (BOH), Integrated Device (IDTI), W. R. Berkley (WRB), XL Group (XL), Plum Creek Timber (PCL), Greenhill &amp; Co. (GHL), Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH), Heartland Financial (HTLF), J &amp; J Snack Foods (JJSF)</p> <p>Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:</p> <p>Herbalife (HLF), Medidata Solutions (MDSO), Universal American (UAM), Talisman Energy (TLM), AudioCodes (AUDC), Jacobs Engineering (JEC), HomeStreet (HMST), Crane (CR), Seaspan (SSW), PRGX Global (PRGX), Owens &amp; Minor (OMI), Range Resources (RRC), TriCo Bancshares (TCBK), National Interstate (NATL), PartnerRe (PRE), MicroStrategy (MSTR), CNO Financial (CNO), Peregrine (PSMI), Montpelier Re (MRH), Danaos (DAC), Meru Networks (MERU), Tile Shop (TTS), PDF Solutions (PDFS)</p> <p>Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:</p> <p>Harris (HRS), Sensata (ST), Stock Building Supply (STCK), Heritage Oaks (HEOP), Harmonic (HLIT), Exactech (EXAC), MiMedx (MDXG)</p> <p>NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES</p> <p>Bank of America (BAC), DOJ talks hit snag, WSJ reports<br />Toyota (TM) should recall older Camry hybrids, Consumer Reports says<br />AECOM Technology (ACM) said to acquire Hunt Construction, WSJ reports<br />Dollar General (DG) rejected chance to bid on Family Dollar (FDO), Bloomberg reports (DLTR)<br />McDonald's (MCD) China will have to obtain meat from local suppliers, McDonald's Japan to shift to Thailand suppliers, China Daily reports<br />eBay (eBAY) executives Carges, Doerger sold over $2M in stock, Barron's says</p> <p>SYNDICATE</p> <p>Brandywine Realty (BDN) files to sell 18M shares of common stock<br />Meridian Interstate Bancorp (EBSB) 32.5M share Secondary priced at $10.00<br />Spark Energy (SPKE) 3M share IPO priced at $18.00<br />TCP Capital (TCPC) files to sell 5.4M shares of common stock<br />Zoe's Kitchen (ZOES) files to sell 4.6M shares for holders</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-29/frontrunning-july-29#comments 8.5% Andrew Cuomo Apple B+ BAC Baidu Bank of America Bank of America Bank of Hawaii Boeing Capital Markets Carlyle Case-Shiller China Citigroup Consumer Confidence Countrywide Dark Pools dark pools default Deutsche Bank Dollar General Ford General Electric Goldman Sachs goldman sachs Google Hong Kong Japan JPMorgan Chase Keefe Lloyds Merrill Merrill Lynch Morgan Stanley Nomura Private Equity Raymond James Regional Banks Reuters Toyota Ukraine Vladimir Putin Wells Fargo Wilbur Ross Tue, 29 Jul 2014 11:42:48 +0000 Tyler Durden 491934 at http://www.zerohedge.com