http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2011/09/20110926_sovefsf_0.png en Democrats Unveil 'Transition' Team http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/democrats-unveil-transition-team <p>Presented with no comment...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_dems.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_dems_0.jpg" width="600" height="450" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://townhall.com/political-cartoons/2016/12/05/146991"><em>Source: Townhall.com</em></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="693" height="520" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20161208_dems.jpg?1481213478" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/democrats-unveil-transition-team#comments Conservatism in the United States Entertainment Technology The Heritage Foundation Townhall Thu, 08 Dec 2016 20:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 580060 at http://www.zerohedge.com Presenting SocGen's "Most Frightening Credit Chart" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/presenting-socgens-most-frightening-credit-chart <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"I sometimes feel like ‘The Grim Reaper’, scouring the research savannah in a ghoulish quest to harvest bad news with a forceful sweep of my scythe. </strong>Imagine then my perverse delight when our credit team produced what is one of the scariest charts I have seen for a very long time. Markets shrugged off the Brexit vote in a couple of days. They shrugged off Donald Trump’s election in a single day. They shrugged off the Italian Referendum result in a couple of hours. Heck, in this mood they would shrug off an alien invasion of planet Earth. But global political risk is now at such elevated levels that investors must surely be on another planet."</p> </blockquote> <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <em>- Albert Edwards</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Has the reflationary blow to bond markets from “Trumpflation” and the euphoria in global equities tempered Soc Gen’s Albert Edwards’ decades long "Ice Age" bearishness?&nbsp; Not a chance, as he explains in his latest note “Presenting our credit team’s most frightening chart”. In contrast, Edwards admits to the “perverse delight” at his discovery of the aforementioned chart which reassures him that global risk is at such elevated levels that “investors must surely be on another planet.” </p> <p>While our take has generally been that it’s central bankers that are on another planet - the rest of us merely forced to play on it - we know what he means. </p> <p>The chart below was created by Edwards’ colleague in EM credit, Guy Stear, who the former describes as “<em>unlike this author he is a normal, well-adjusted person not prone to uncontrolled outbursts of bearish hyperbole. And people actually like him!” </em>It shows the comparison between <em>Global Economic Policy Uncertainty </em>(EPU) and Global Credit Spreads. </p> <p>The EPU is the work of three American academics, Messrs Baker, Bloom and Davis (BBD). Along with global credit spreads, the EPU peaked in 2008 and 2011, but the correlation has broken down. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/socgen%20scary.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/socgen%20scary_0.jpg" width="500" height="253" /></a></p> <p>As Edwards explains:“The EPU index is up at all-time highs, but spreads are at the median levels of the period going back to 2008. The chart implies that given the current level of economic policy uncertainty, global spreads should be twice as wide. This ought to worry the bulls.”</p> <p>The report provides a link to the EPU creators’ website <a href="http://www.policyuncertainty.com/">www.policyuncertainty.com</a>. We were took a quick look at their methodology and, without getting in to too much detail, BBD scan leading newspapers in 12 countries (including all of the G-10) for certain key terms. As they explain for the US: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>“Our index reflects the frequency of articles in 10 leading US newspapers that contain the following triple: ‘economic’ or ‘economy’; ‘uncertain’ or ‘uncertainty’; and one or more of ‘congress’, ‘deficit’, ‘Federal Reserve’, ‘legislation’, ‘regulation’ or ‘White House.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>The Global EPU is calculated as a GDP-weighted average of “monthly EPU index values for US, Canada, Brazil, Chile,UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, Netherlands, Russia, India, China, South Korea, Japan, Ireland, and Australia, using GDP data from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook Database.”</p> <p>It seems that BBD’s Global EPU is suddenly getting some traction among the investment community as it was only two hours before we read Edwards’ new report that we saw the chart below on the twitter page of Maleeha Bengali (of MB Commodity Corner). This time, we see the EPU versus the VIX.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/mb%20vix.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/mb%20vix_0.jpg" width="500" height="364" /></a></p> <p>So, we are led to the conclusion that we’re all too well aware that, courtesy of the interventions of our central banking friends, asset prices are significantly under-pricing risk…no matter how much and for how long they deny it.&nbsp; </p> <p>Divergences abound in the markets currently, and the recent surge in bank equities has led to charts like the ones below. First, Goldman’s&nbsp; CDS (green line) versus the equity (white line).</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/us%20cds_0.jpg" width="500" height="375" /></p> <p>Second, the same chart for Deutsche Bank. </p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/us%20cds%202_0.jpg" width="500" height="375" /></p> <p>So one might ask…<strong>what is the best measure of risk? </strong>One which also reflects the actual and relative impact of central bank policies including rate divergences, QE or no QE, funding requirements in major currencies and regulation.&nbsp; </p> <p>The answer? <strong>It’s the dollar…</strong>and it’s something we’ve argued in detail twice in only the last three weeks. </p> <p>Firstly, in “<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-15/vix-dead-according-bis-new-fear-indicator">The VIX Is Dead: According To The BIS, This Is The New "Fear Indicator</a>", we highlighted the BIS report, “The bank/capital markets nexus goes global” BIS' head of research, Hyun Song Shin, argued that the negative relationship between leverage and the VIX had broken down and:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“The mantle of the barometer of risk appetite and leverage has slipped from the VIX, and has passed to the dollar."</p> </blockquote> <p>The following day in “<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-16/dollar-illiquidity-getting-critical-10-trillion-short-which-fed-does-not-understand">Dollar Illiquidity Getting Critical: A $10 Trillion Short Which The Fed Does Not Understand</a>”, we discussed a report from ADM ISI which argued that:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“The price of the dollar acts like a ‘Global Fed Funds Rate.’ A rising dollar tightens economic conditions globally, adding considerable deflationary pressure…”</p> </blockquote> <p>So, logically…</p> <p>If the US dollar (yellow line) and the Global EPU (white line) are valid methods for more accurately measuring risk, it should follow that… </p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/dollar%20chart_0.gif" width="500" height="375" /></p> <p>Putting it another way…Quod Erat Demonstrandum.</p> <p>The problem is the ability/cost for regional banks and borrowers (especially in EM)&nbsp; to continue rolling over the funding of more than $10 trillion of offshore dollar debt when the value of the dollar keeps rising and big Eurodollar banks (e.g. Citi, JPM, BoA, HSBC, etc) are less willing to offer dollar balance sheet due to regulation/risk aversion.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p> <p>Since the problem is being exacerbated by policy divergence between the Fed and other major central banks, more stringent regulation they are implementing and the lack of a dollar swap facility between Fed/PBoC, we leave it up to readers to decide who will be responsible when something goes wrong. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1364" height="690" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/socgen%20scary.jpg?1481229348" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/presenting-socgens-most-frightening-credit-chart#comments Albert Edwards Australia BIS Bond Brazil Business Capital Markets CDS Central bank Central Banks China Deutsche Bank Economy EPU ETC EuroDollar federal government France Germany Ice Age India International Monetary Fund Ireland Italy Japan Mathematical finance Netherlands Regional Banks SocGen Technical analysis Twitter Twitter US Federal Reserve VIX White House World Economic Outlook Thu, 08 Dec 2016 20:37:55 +0000 Tyler Durden 580098 at http://www.zerohedge.com Fake News, Criminalized http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/fake-news-criminalized <div id="article-title-section" style="box-sizing: border-box; overflow: hidden; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 14px;"> <div class="section-title-grey" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Roboto, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; text-shadow: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.247059) 0px 1px 0px; color: #818181; line-height: 22px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 24px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: #303030;">Via&nbsp;<a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; word-wrap: break-word; color: #222222; outline-style: none; outline-width: 0px;">The Daily Bell</a><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/us-domestic-tumult-orchestrated-or-not/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; word-wrap: break-word; color: #1e439a;">&nbsp;</a></span></strong></em></div> </div> <div id="article_main" class="article_text" style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;"> <blockquote style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 17.5px; box-sizing: border-box; padding: 10px 20px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; border-left: 5px solid #eeeeee;"> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">MI6 Chief Says Fake News And Online Propaganda Are A Threat To Democracy … The chief of MI6 has said he is deeply concerned by the threat posed by rival countries attempting to undermine democracy through propaganda and cyberattacks. -<a href="https://www.buzzfeed.com/jimwaterson/mi6-chief-says-fake-news-and-online-propaganda-is-a-threat-t?utm_term=.rdW2Q5V58#.vg7r87R7Q">Buzzfeed</a></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">The next step in attacking the alternative media is to criminalize it.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Right now the alternative media is under attack in Europe for “hate speech” and (potentially) terrorism. In the US, the alternative media is being accused of presenting Russian propaganda. Earlier today, this approach was taken up by British intel (see above).</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">In the US, there are Congressional attempts underway to provide funds for law enforcement to investigate alternative news sites as supporters of Russian propaganda. But so far there have been no major statements from US federal law enforcement officials. Now, however, we have one from Britain - as the head of MI6 has spoken up.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Since Western alternative media is simply an outgrowth – an expression – of discontent with the current system, those producing it cannot ultimately be seen as tools of Russian propaganda. However, alternative media is proving deeply disconcerting to the larger Western power structure. For this reason, suspicions of Russian propaganda merely provide a justification for investigation. One an investigation has been pursued, it may not stop until something – anything – is found that can be construed as criminal or at least problematic.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">In this way alternative media can be first criminalized and then hounded. Or so the plan goes …</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">More:</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Alex Younger, aka “C”, used a rare public speech to say he was deeply concerned about the risks posed by hybrid warfare, where countries take advantage of the internet to “further their aims deniably” through “means as varied as cyberattacks, propaganda, or subversion of democratic process”.</em></p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Although he did not name Russia directly, the comments come following accusations that the Kremlin has attempted to influence elections in the US and Europe using underhand tactics ranging from undeclared direct funding, to hacking emails, to spreading fake news.</em></p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">“Our job is to give the government the information advantage; to shine a light on these activities and to help our country and allies, in particular across Europe, build the resilience they need to protect themselves,” Younger said. “The risks at stake are profound and represent a fundamental threat to our sovereignty; they should be a concern to all those who share democratic values.”</em></p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">In fact, what is being planned is not going to work. It will likely make life miserable for&nbsp;certain reporters and others associated with the alternative media. But it is far too early for the powers-that-be to stamp out alternative journalism (and the thinking behind it) no matter how much they wish to.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">For one thing, alternative journalism is now representative of a larger mindset among tens and even hundreds of millions of people, especially in the West. Thus it will take at least a full generation to wipe out new perspectives and rediscovered information.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Second, because the news is representative of people’s points of view (rather than vice-versa) alternative media insights and information will&nbsp;continue to be presented in various ways – on the &nbsp;Internet as well, only not so obviously.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Finally, the growing war against the alternative media will only reinforce its relevance and credibility, thus causing more people to become informed (or deepen their perceptions) about the issues presented in the so-called alternative media.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">There is a whole alternative culture that is offered by modern alternative media. Some of it may be leftist but the initial approach – for those who have tracked its emergence on the ‘Net – was basically libertarian and freedom-oriented.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Even today this specific cultural approach informs a lot of alternative reporting. The fundamental ideas is that the market itself should make determinations regarding human interactions rather than government run by groups of people with greater or lesser competence.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">This approach is rooted in free-market – Austrian – economic theory which is actually accepted throughout mainstream economics. It begins with marginal utility, the idea that credible prices can only be generated by marketplace competition. But its insights are much broader.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">If everyone in formal academic economics including Keynesians accept the reality of marginal utility (as they do) then how can such massive governments exists, passing thousands of laws, rules and regulations – all of which are essentially price fixes? Shouldn’t human behavior be moderated by competition instead whenever possible?</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">The same goes for central banking. It contravenes fundamental economic logic. Ask almost anyone in banking of economics (on the left or right) if they believe in marginal utility and the answer will be “yes.”&nbsp;Ask anyone if they believe price-fixing is effective or productive and they will answer “no.”</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">And yet central banking is a form of price fixing and so is government. Western society exists in a&nbsp;bubble of cognitive dissonance. What is accepted academically is not applied in reality.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">And thus freedom – and libertarianism – cannot be attacked logically. Instead, false arguments will be created to damp down the alternative media.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">But as pointed out above, it is not going to be simple or easy to remove fundamental truths from the body politic. The last time we witnessed this kind of paradigm was after the invention of the Gutenberg press that blew open societies throughout the West and helped create the New World and then the republic of “these United States.”</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">It took about 500 years for control of society to be re-established from the top down by certain historical groups ... and yet here we are again. The same sort of technological undermining has taken place and it won’t be easily repressed.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">It may not take another 450 years but it certainly won’t happen in 10 or 20. And by the time it does take place it is certainly possible that another information revolution will have come to pass.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Time and history are&nbsp;working against authoritarianism and not with it. Depriving people of knowledge and history is a signature of repression. But in the current technological era it becomes more and more difficult.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">What is pending is&nbsp;period of chaos and difficulty. But over the next century we may see an efflorescence of the sort that took place after the Gutenberg press with the expansion of the Renaissance and the advent of the Enlightenment and the rediscovery of scientific thinking.</p> <p style="color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Conclusion:</span>&nbsp;Things may indeed change. But not necessarily in the way controllers imagine.</p> <div id="article_main" style="color: #000000; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;"> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.25em; margin-bottom: 0.75em; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.3; font-family: inherit;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;">Edit</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;">or's Note:&nbsp;</strong><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;">The Daily Bell is giving away a silver coin and a silver "white paper" to subscribers. If you enjoy DB's articles and want to stay up-to-date for free, please subscribe&nbsp;<strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; word-wrap: break-word; color: #1e439a;">here</a>.&nbsp;</strong></strong></em></p> </div> <p style="color: #000000; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.25em; margin-bottom: 0.75em; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.3;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;">More from</span><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; word-wrap: break-word; color: #1e439a;">&nbsp;The Daily Bell:</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;">&nbsp;</span></p> <p style="color: #000000; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.25em; margin-bottom: 0.75em; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.3;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: #1e439a;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/will-rand-paul-fight-fake-news-with-a-filibuster/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; word-wrap: break-word; color: #1e439a;">Will Rand Paul Fight Fake News With a Filibuster?<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /></a></span></em></strong></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.25em; margin-bottom: 0.75em; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.3;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><em style="font-variant-numeric: inherit; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-variant-numeric: inherit; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="color: #1e439a;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/populism-vs-globalism-a-meme-that-doesnt-exist/">‘Populism Vs. Globalism’ – a Meme That Doesn’t Exist in Reality</a></span></span></span></em></strong></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0.25em; margin-bottom: 0.75em; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.3;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><em style="font-variant-numeric: inherit; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><span style="font-variant-numeric: inherit; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;"><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/elites-plot-to-replace-austrian-free-market-economics/" style="color: #1e439a; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; text-decoration: underline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 1.2; word-wrap: break-word;">Elites Plot to Replace Austrian Free-Market Economics?</a></span></em></strong></p> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/fake-news-criminalized#comments Alternative media Broadcasting Cognitive Dissonance Communication Economics Media manipulation News Political communication Politics Propaganda Public opinion Reality Renaissance RT Secret Intelligence Service Television Thu, 08 Dec 2016 20:22:01 +0000 TDB 580097 at http://www.zerohedge.com From 65 Days To 9 Hours - The Incredible Shrinking Life Of Market Crashes http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/65-days-9-hours-incredible-shrinking-life-market-crashes <p><strong>The opportunity to buy the crash-event dip has diminished dramatically in the last year.</strong></p> <p>As JPMorgan&#39;s Marko Kolanovic notes, the market&#39;s response to recent major catalysts has become progressively shorter (as measured by time to recovery)</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_crash1.jpg"><img height="316" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_crash1_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_crash2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_crash2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 322px;" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_crash3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_crash3_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_crash4.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2016/12/02/20161208_crash4_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>It appears the machines (and the humans) are learning... this is easy! At what point do the central bankers decide this kind of one-sided coin tossing is not &#39;safe&#39;.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="600" height="78" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20161208_crash.jpg?1481218820" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/65-days-9-hours-incredible-shrinking-life-market-crashes#comments Catalysis Coin flipping Dual in-line package Random selection recovery Thu, 08 Dec 2016 20:10:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 580078 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Persistent Problems of Presidential Elections http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/persistent-problems-presidential-elections <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The election is over. I am left with two very contradictory feelings.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">First is one of appreciation — every four years we peacefully replace our government.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">I remember my parents in the late 1970s discussing Soviet politics at our house with their close friend. Their friend said something anti-Soviet. I vividly recall the fear in my mother’s eyes when she realized I had overheard that part of the conversation.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Views that were contrary to “politics of the party” were not tolerated. If I repeated in kindergarten what I had just heard, my teacher could report it to authorities and my parents (not me) would get in trouble.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">A six-year-old kid could have only heard this sort of anti-Soviet talk at home: TV, radio, and newspapers were a pro-Soviet propaganda machine. My parents would not have been sent to the gulag, but they could have lost their jobs. If this sounds farfetched, my father’s best friend, a colleague and professor at Murmansk Marine Academy, was fired for possession of anti-Soviet propaganda — a copy of Solzhenitsyn’s&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Gulag Archipelago</em>. It took him years to get another job, and it was almost two decades later, when the Soviet Union fell apart, that he was finally able to get a decent teaching job.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">We in America tend to take our democratic elections for granted and underappreciate the fact that we can openly express our views. But there is also the other, new feeling: disgust. Yes, disgust. There is something deeply wrong with the U.S. election process. Between the presidential candidates and the congressional races, billions of dollars were spent (wasted) on the election. To spend that kind of money, first you have to raise it. Politicians sell their souls and beliefs to whomever will give them the most money.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">And here is the sad truth: If you don’t raise money, the other guy will, and then he can outspend you. He can slaughter you, as his lies will be amplified louder through TV and radio ads, and the victory will be his. As I am writing this, I am realizing that allowing politicians to spend unlimited amounts of money on campaigns is not unlike allowing steroids in sports — even the strongest athlete will lose to a weaker opponent who is pumped on steroids.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Also, this election process will turn even a very honorable person into a liar or half-truth teller, because it is impossible to express complex ideas in 30-second sound bites. Even during the presidential debates, where candidates were allowed a few minutes to make their case, every claim that each of them made had to be fact-checked the next morning. We must be scratching an all-time low in politics when we feel the need to fact-check the statements of the candidates running for the highest office in the land, the president of the United States, the office that should be the moral compass for the country. If we accept lies and half-truths from them as politics as usual, what do you expect from just a mortal senator or a congressman?</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The partisan politics of this country is simply insane. I observed both Republican and Democrat friends, who are otherwise rational people whom I deeply respect, turning into mindless robots when the conversation turned to politics. It seemed that their cognitive abilities had been wiped and replaced by a party program as they mindlessly repeated half-truths and lies propagated by the party mother ship, without any critical thinking of their own. It was scary.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">But there is a silver lining to U.S. politics. Call me a disillusioned optimist, but no matter what the outcome of the election, this country has survived and will continue to survive bad congressmen, bad senators, and even bad presidents.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Here is the irony of the above: I wrote that piece exactly four years ago about the Obama/Romney election. I never thought that I was describing what, four years later, we’d consider the good ol’ days.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Thoughts on Trump’s presidency:</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">If Hillary Clinton had been elected, her presidency would have provided a fairly narrow band of outcomes — basically a continuation of the past eight years. (I’ll let you, Dear Reader, be the judge of whether that would have been good or bad.)</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Potential outcomes for the Trump presidency fall in a much wider band. Probable outcomes are relatively narrow for domestic policy and a mile wide for foreign policy.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">We tend to think of the American president as a very powerful person. However, that is only true when it comes to foreign policy, when the president acts as commander-in-chief. Regarding domestic policy, the brilliance of the Constitution is that it puts significant limits on what the president can do.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">For instance, even though Republicans control the Congress, they lack the 60 votes to break filibusters and invoke cloture. Thus, though Trump’s party may diminish Obamacare, they may not have the ability to repeal it altogether. In the case of domestic policy, Trump is pretty much just another Republican president whose effectiveness will be helped by Republican control of Congress — but at the same time may potentially be restricted by the new president’s own negotiating skills and his lack of political experience.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">When it comes to foreign policy and trade, the range of outcomes becomes incredibly wide. First, we don’t know who Trump the commander-in-chief really is. Is he Trump the candidate, who would say brash and simply idiotic things — or the very calm, presidential person who delivered a brilliant acceptance speech? Will he make the world a safer or a more dangerous place?</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">I don’t have an answer for that question. Just as with predictions for the outcome of this election, it seems that no one does.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #000000;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif;">Vitaliy N. Katsenelson, CFA, is Chief Investment Officer at&nbsp;</span><a href="http://imausa.com/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif; word-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; color: #2baadf;">Investment Management Associates</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif;">&nbsp;in Denver, Colo. He is the author of</span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif; color: #202020;">&nbsp;Active Value Investing</em><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif;">&nbsp;(Wiley) and&nbsp;</span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif; color: #202020;">The Little Book of Sideways Markets</em><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif;">&nbsp;(Wiley). &nbsp;</span></span><br style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #202020; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px;" /><br style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #202020; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px;" /><span style="color: #000000;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif;">His&nbsp;</span><a href="http://imausa.com/books/" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif; word-wrap: break-word; text-decoration: underline; color: #2baadf;">books</a><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif;">&nbsp;were translated into eight languages. &nbsp;Forbes Magazine called him "The new Benjamin Graham".&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif; color: #202020;">To receive Vitaliy’s future articles by email or read his articles<a href="http://imausa.com/signup-for-articles/" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; word-wrap: break-word; color: #1e439a;">&nbsp;<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: normal; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; text-decoration: underline;">click here</span></span></span></a>.</strong></span></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 24px; font-family: Merriweather, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span style="color: #000000;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 24px; font-family: georgia, times, &quot;times new roman&quot;, serif; color: #202020;">originally written for Institutional Investor&nbsp;</strong></span></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/persistent-problems-presidential-elections#comments Archipelago Congress Donald Trump presidential campaign Murmansk Marine Academy Obamacare Political positions of Donald Trump Politics Trump’s party Value Investing Thu, 08 Dec 2016 20:06:27 +0000 Vitaliy Katsenelson 580094 at http://www.zerohedge.com Deutsche Bank Provides "Smoking Gun" Proof Of Massive Rigging And Fraud In The Silver Market http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/deutsche-bank-provides-smoking-gun-proof-massive-rigging-and-fraud-silver-market <p>Back in April, when <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-14/case-closed-deutsche-bank-confirms-silver-market-manipulation-legal-settlement-agree">we first reported </a>that Deutsche Bank had agreed to settle allegations it had rigged the silver market in exchange for $38 million, we revealed something stunning: "in a curious twist, the settlement letter revealed that the <strong>former members of the manipulation cartel have turned on each other</strong>", and that Deutsche Bank would provide docments implicating other precious metals riggers. To wit: "In addition to valuable monetary consideration, Deutsche Bank has also agreed to provide cooperation to plaintiffs, including the production of instant messages, and other electronic communications, as part of the settlement. In Plaintiff’s estimation, the cooperation to be provided by Deutsche Bank will substantially assist Plaintiffs in the prosecution of their claims against the non-settling defendants."</p> <p>Overnight we finally got a glimpse into what this "production" contained, and according to documents filed by the plaintiffs in the class action lawsuit, what Deutsche Bank provided as part of its settlement was nothing short of "<strong>smoking gun" </strong>proof that UBS Group AG, HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of Nova Scotia <strong>and other firms </strong>rigged the silver market. The allegation, as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-08/deutsche-bank-records-alleged-to-show-banks-rigged-silver-prices">Bloomberg first noted</a>, came in a filing Wednesday in a Manhattan federal court lawsuit filed in 2014 by individuals and entities that bought or sold futures contracts. </p> <p>In the document records surrendered by Deutsche Bank and presented below, traders and submitters were <strong>captured coordinating trades in advance of a daily phone call, manipulating the spot market for silver, conspiring to fix the spread on silver offered to customers and using illegal strategies to rig prices</strong>.</p> <p>“Plaintiffs are now able to plead with direct, ‘<strong>smoking gun’ evidence</strong>,’ including secret electronic chats involving silver traders and submitters across a number of financial institutions, a multi-year, well-coordinated and wide-ranging conspiracy to rig the prices,” the plaintiffs said in their filing. </p> <p>The latest evidence is critical because as the plaintiffs add, the new scheme “<strong>far surpasses the conspiracy alleged earlier</strong>.” As a result, the litigants are seeking permission to file a new complaint with the additional allegations, i.e., demand even more reparations from the defendants who have not yet settled, and perhaps even more evidence of ongoing market rigging. Their proposed complaint broadens the case beyond the four banks initially sued to include claims against units of Barclays Plc, BNP Paribas Fortis SA, Standard Chartered Plc and Bank of America Corp.</p> <p>Representatives of UBS, BNP Paribas Fortis, HSBC, Standard Chartered and Scotiabank didn’t immediately respond to e-mails outside regular business hours seeking comment on the allegations. Barclays and Bank of America declined to immediately comment.</p> <p>The Deutsche Bank documents show, among other things, <strong>how two UBS traders communicated directly with two Deutsche Bank traders and discussed ways to rig the market</strong>. The traders shared customer order-flow information, improperly triggered customer stop-loss orders, and engaged in practices such as spoofing, all meant to destabilize the price of silver ahead of the fix and result in forced selling or buying. It is also what has led on so many occasions to the infamous previous metals "slam", when out of nowhere billions in notional contracts emerge, usually with the intent to sell, to halt any upside moment in the precious metals/&nbsp; </p> <p>"UBS was the third-largest market maker in the silver spot market and could directly influence the prices of silver financial instruments based on the sheer volume of silver it traded," the plaintiffs allege. "Conspiring with other large market makers, like Deutsche Bank and HSBC, only increased UBS’s ability to influence the market."</p> <p>Some examples of the chats quoted are shown below. In the first example a chart between DB and HSBC traders in which one HSBC trader says "really wanna sel sil[ver" to which the other trader says "Let's go and smash it together."</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/rigging%200.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/rigging%200_0.jpg" width="500" height="235" /></a></p> <p>Another chat transcript from May 11, 2011 reveals a Deutsche Bank trader telling a UBS trader that the cartel "WERE THE SILVER MARKET"(sic) based on feedback from outside traders to which UBS replies, referring to the silver market "we smashed it good", leading to the following lament "<strong>fking hell UBS now u make me regret not joining</strong>."</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/rigging%201.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/rigging%201_1.jpg" width="500" height="412" /></a></p> <p>Finally, for all those traders who wonder what happened to their stops as a result of dramatic moves in the price, here is the answer: a June 2011 chat between a UBS and a DB trader comes down to the following: "if you have stops... who ya gonna call... STOP BUSTERS"</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/rigging%202.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/rigging%202_0.jpg" width="500" height="303" /></a></p> <p>If the plaintiff request for an expanded lawsuit is granted, we expect many more fireworks as other banks rush to settle on their own and provide even more documentary proof of unprecedented precious metal market manipulation, until there is just one bank left standing, ostensibly the one slammed with the biggest fine of all, perhaps even leading to prison time for some of the market riggers.</p> <p><em>The full filings from the case (London Silver Fixing Ltd. Antitrust Litigation, 1:14-md-02573 U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan) are provided below:</em></p> <p><iframe src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/333624219/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-8txghRQDVLqQdOXh4Wr2&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <p><iframe src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/333627011/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-0v3QUdyAybWgXru4m66M&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="272" height="153" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/silver%20bards_1.jpg?1481205794" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/deutsche-bank-provides-smoking-gun-proof-massive-rigging-and-fraud-silver-market#comments 1:14-md-02573 U.S. District Court Bank of America Bank of America Barclays Barclays BNP Paribas Business Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Economy Finance HSBC Investment banks Libor scandal Market Manipulation Money Precious Metals Primary dealers Prison Time Silver as an investment Standard Chartered UBS Thu, 08 Dec 2016 20:03:23 +0000 Tyler Durden 580039 at http://www.zerohedge.com Thursday Humor: Millennial's Guide To Saving http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/thursday-humor-millennials-guide-saving <h2>Surviving Your 20s... How To Save For Retirement</h2> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Research the different ways your employer can assist in retirement saving, such as matching 401k contributions or tripling your salary.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="http://i.onionstatic.com/onion/5514/7/3x1/600.jpg" />&nbsp; <div> <p>Wed a strapping spouse who looks like they could work well into their 80s without difficulty or complaint.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="http://i.onionstatic.com/onion/5514/8/3x1/600.jpg" />&nbsp; </p><p>Remove extraneous expenses from your superfluous lifestyle by adopting the sparse, contemplative life of a Theravada Buddhist monk.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="http://i.onionstatic.com/onion/5514/9/3x1/600.jpg" /></p></div> <div>&nbsp; <p>Simultaneously save a percentage of each paycheck and the pit from every avocado, just in case the U.S. Treasury Department starts reconsidering a dollar-based currency.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="http://i.onionstatic.com/onion/5515/0/3x1/600.jpg" /></p></div> <div>&nbsp; <p>Considerably reduce the amount you’ll need for retirement by taking up hang gliding.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="http://i.onionstatic.com/onion/5515/1/3x1/600.jpg" /></p></div> </p></blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.theonion.com/interactive/guide-to-your-20s/how-to-save-for-retirement">Source: The Onion</a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="363" height="183" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20161208_save.jpg?1481216469" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/thursday-humor-millennials-guide-saving#comments Ageing Labor Retirement Termination of employment The Onion Treasury Department U.S. TREASURY DEPARTMENT Thu, 08 Dec 2016 19:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 580068 at http://www.zerohedge.com China's Latest Capital Control: A Crackdown On Macau ATM Cash Withdrawals http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/casino-stocks-plunge-china-cracks-down-macau-atm-cash-withdrawals <p>Casino stocks have plunged following a report in <a href="http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/economy/article/2053045/beijing-takes-aim-macau-gaming-industry-cut-currency-flight">the South China Morning Post </a>that in China's latest crackdown on capital outflows, Beijing is cutting in half the amount of money account holders of China UnionPay can withdraw from ATMs in Macau, the world’s largest gambling market.&nbsp; </p> <p>The Monetary Authority of Macau’s ATM withdrawal cut is understood to be a reaction to attempts by illicit money movers to circumvent Beijing’s move at the beginning of this year to cap at 100,000 yuan (HK$112,600) the annual amount that UnionPay card holders could withdraw.</p> <p>The limit imposed by the Monetary Authority of Macau takes effect Saturday, cutting the withdrawal limit from 10,000 to 5,000 patacas, and follows the discovery that as much as 10 billion patacas in China UnionPay ATM withdrawals were made in one month alone. The latest capital control also comes amid so far unanswered claims that the customer voucher scheme run by Marina Bay Sands casino resort in Singapore – which allows China UnionPay card users to buy gaming chips in breach of China’s strict currency controls, a scheme we profiled over a year ago – has seen billions of yuan flow out of the mainland.</p> <p>In immediate reaction, shares of Wynn Resorts Ltd. fell as much as 12%, Las Vegas Sands dropped 12% and MGM Resorts International sank 7%.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/20161208_casino.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/20161208_casino_0.jpg" width="500" height="354" /></a></p> <p>As SCMP reports, a Macau finance industry insider - who apparently was not familiar with how money is laundered through Macau - told the Post: “What has happened is that individuals are turning up at ATM machines with stacks of cards from individual account holders and are withdrawing 10,000 a time. “The authorities have decided it is time to act and Beijing is backing the move.’’ </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Two years ago, Beijing put the squeeze on the multi-billion yuan flow of illicit cash through Macau by imposing a crackdown on the use of UnionPay point of service machines, which were being used to disguise overseas transactions as local mainland ones. It also cracked down on the practice of pawnshops paying cash for products such as jewellery and watches bought with UnionPay cards to subvert currency controls. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The pressure appears to have had a possible knock-on effect in other casino jurisdictions like Singapore.</p> </blockquote> <p>The latest crackdown on the gambling mecca shows just how seriously Beijing is taking the recent record drop in the Yuan, and how far it is willing to go to plug every possible capital flight loophole. Macau political commentator Sonny Lo said: “At the end of the day, national security is at stake for Beijing when it comes to the integrity of their currency and its outflow in massive amounts. This is what is behind these increasing moves by Beijing to stem capital outflow.”</p> <p>While the Yuan may ultimately be a winner, US casinos in Macau, who will have far less "disposable cash" to launder, are clearly the biggest losers, at least judging by the market's kneejerk reaction.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="500" height="282" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/unionpay%20atm.jpg?1481226201" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/casino-stocks-plunge-china-cracks-down-macau-atm-cash-withdrawals#comments ATM Banking in China China China UnionPay Cooperatives Economy Economy of Macau Finance Finance Industry Gambling Interbank networks Las Vegas Las Vegas Sands Macanese pataca Macau Monetary Authority of Macau Money national security South China Yuan Thu, 08 Dec 2016 19:44:06 +0000 Tyler Durden 580092 at http://www.zerohedge.com Equities Look Like A Good Short Here (Video) http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/equities-look-good-short-here-video <p>By <a href="http://www.econmatters.com/search/label/EconMatters"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">EconMatters</span></span></a> </p> <p><em><br /></em> </p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yA83CJ1vy1A/WEmzbKAZniI/AAAAAAAAMxE/x7rCcQuPMowwX_hpnaBbaflKC1-a7rPHQCLcB/s1600/short-shorts-3.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yA83CJ1vy1A/WEmzbKAZniI/AAAAAAAAMxE/x7rCcQuPMowwX_hpnaBbaflKC1-a7rPHQCLcB/s400/short-shorts-3.jpg" height="265" width="400" border="0" /></a></div> <p> We discuss some of the structural issues aside from the valuation issues why we think this is a good place to short equities over the next week. I like the price and setup considerations for this short play in equities! </p> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/-mdNdT36vq8?feature=player_embedded" height="266" width="320" frameborder="0"></iframe></div> <p> © <a href="http://www.econmatters.com/" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">EconMatters</span></span></a> All Rights Reserved | <a href="http://www.facebook.com/EconMatters" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Facebook</span></span></a> | <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/EconMatters" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Twitter</span></span></a> | <a href="http://www.youtube.com/c/Econmatters" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">YouTube</span></span></a> | <a href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=EconForecast" target="_blank"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Email Digest</span></span></a> | <a href="http://astore.amazon.com/econforecast-20?_encoding=UTF8&amp;node=80"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Kindle</span></span></a><strong>&nbsp;</strong><em>&nbsp;</em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">&nbsp;</span></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/equities-look-good-short-here-video#comments Computing Entertainment Facebook Social information processing Social media Social networking services Software Technology Twitter Twitter Twitter Universal Windows Platform apps Thu, 08 Dec 2016 19:39:46 +0000 EconMatters 580091 at http://www.zerohedge.com Waiting For The Trump Fiscal Stimulus To Hit? Forget About 2017 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/waiting-trump-fiscal-stimulus-hit-forget-about-2017 <p>That the market has soared since the Trump election on hopes of a fiscal stimulus splurge, sending the Dow Jones to just 300 points away from 20,000 is by now familiar to most. However, what few may realize is that even in a best case scenario, one where Congress does not throw up on Trump's vague stimulus plan which is expected to add as much as $5 trillion to the already soaring US debt, <strong>little if any of the actual spending and economic boost will take place in 2017. </strong></p> <p>As Goldman writes in a note from this morning, "most market participants appear to be expecting fiscal policy to become more expansionary next year, but the timing of such a shift remains unclear." In fact, according to Goldman calculations, the most likely phase in period is the very end of 2017, if not early 2018 at the earliest, to wit: <strong>"Our preliminary expectation is that the growth effects from looser fiscal policy would be concentrated in Q4 2017 and the first half of 2018.</strong>"</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p> In our view, there are three factors that will influence the timing of any fiscal boost. First, the legislative process will take months, at least, and could push some priorities like tax cuts to the second half of 2017. Second, implementation can take longer, particularly if it involves a new program, as might be the case regarding infrastructure. Third, once a policy change has been made and implemented, it can take time for economic activity to respond; consumers might initially save some of their tax windfall before spending, and infrastructure spending can take several quarters after contracts are signed.</p> </blockquote> <p>What does the timing depend on? Goldman says that the key variables are how long it takes tax legislation to become law, and whether Congress legislates a prolonged phase-in or implements the full tax cut in the first year. <strong>The 1981 and 2001 tax cuts were both phased in over multiple years, for example.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The left panel of Exhibit 1 shows the prior tax cuts, as a share of GDP, using the revenue estimate of the final legislation published by the Joint Tax Committee, and counting the projected reduction in revenues as a share of projected GDP at the time. The right panel shows the same data on a year-on-year basis. Neither tax cut had a substantial effect in the year of enactment; the 1981 tax cut barely affected tax liabilities payable in 1981 at all, and had a modest effect in 1982, but was projected to have a much larger effect thereafter. The 2001 tax cut provided a bit more of an upfront boost in the first year, in part because of the rebate checks sent to households to refund some taxes paid earlier in the year. Nevertheless, because the tax cut was designed to phase in over a few years, the year-on-year reduction in tax liabilities was slightly greater in 2002 than in 2001, and the effect continued to build more slowly for a few more years (Congress ended up passing additional legislation to accelerate the implementation of the tax cuts in 2003).<strong><br /></strong></p> </blockquote> <p><em>Exhibit 1: Tax Cuts: Some Phase-in Expected </em></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/gs%20tax.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/gs%20tax_0.png" width="500" height="201" /></a></p> <p>Then there are Infrastructure and federal spending. </p> <p>On the former, the lags are often quite long; it took several years to spend the funds allocated to infrastructure in the Recovery Act, for example. On the latter, a boost to defense spending looks likely sometime between Q2 and Q4 2017, but this may be partly offset with cuts to non-defense spending in the same timeframe. Some more details:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>The Trump Administration appears likely to focus on infrastructure among several competing priorities, and we have penciled in $25 billion per year into our forecast to account for this. We expect very little of this spending to show up in 2017, for three reasons. </strong></p> <ul> <li><em>First, it is not clear how the legislative process for infrastructure will unfold over the coming year, but it seems unlikely to us that legislation establishing a new program would be enacted into law before mid-year.&nbsp;</em></li> <li><em>Second, it is unclear what channel new funding would run through, but a new financing scheme involving tax credits, tax-preferred debt, loan guarantees, or other mechanisms to incentivize public-private partnerships seems most likely.&nbsp;</em></li> <li><em>Third, it takes time for contracts to turn into spending. Exhibit 2 shows the timing of “obligations” of transportation-related infrastructure funding following enactment of ARRA, and the timing of the actual spending that resulted from those contracts. <strong><br /></strong></em></li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><em>Exhibit 2: Infrastructure takes time to build up </em></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/gs%20infra%20spending.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/gs%20infra%20spending_0.png" width="500" height="219" /></a></p> <p>Looking at Federal spending, Goldman notes that the composition will change more than the amount, also providing little direct stimulus:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Lawmakers will once again need to decide whether to raise the caps on spending imposed by the Budget Control Act of 2011, related to sequestration. The last agreement, reached in late 2015, raised the caps on discretionary spending for fiscal years 2016 and 2017, but in 2018 the cap on spending will decline in nominal terms (Exhibit 3). Our expectation is that this cut will once again be avoided, though the odds of an increase similar to the 2013 and 2015 deals have actually declined as a result of the election, since many congressional Republicans support maintaining the caps and reallocating funding within them. What seems likely at this point is that defense spending will receive a boost, and that most of the cut to defense resulting from the sequestration-related caps will be reversed. <strong>By contrast, it would be surprising to see non-defense discretionary spending rise above the level called for under the caps. </strong></p> </blockquote> <p><em>Exhibit 3: Another budget deal in 2017? </em></p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/gs%20budget%20deal_0.png" width="500" height="318" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Then there is the expected effect of Obamacare “repeal and replace” which Goldman says is less clear, "but seems likely to provide a modest net stimulus in the near term—potentially as soon as Q2 2017—as a result of the likely repeal of the taxes used to pay for some of the program." Other changes are likely but seem unlikely to be implemented until 2019.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Republican leaders in Congress have indicated they plan to consider legislation in January that would repeal most aspects of the ACA, <strong>but the effective date would be delayed until some point in the future. Our expectation is that the repeal of the existing subsidy system might not become effective until 2019</strong>, at which point a replacement program would probably be implemented (that replacement program is expected to be considered separate from repeal, at some later date). </p> </blockquote> <p>So while most of the benefits from the Obamacare repeal will take place in 2019, there is one exception, and that is likely to be the taxes used in part to finance the new subsidies. House Republicans and President-elect Trump have proposed to repeal these taxes, which is why a repeal would likely become effective upon enactment. If so, this would result in a modest tax cut by Q2, <strong>mainly for high income earners and health care companies</strong>. Most of Americans would, again, be left out in the cold.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Applying these assumptions, suggests to Goldman that - <em><strong>assuming all goes according to Trump's tentative plan </strong></em>- the US will enjoy only a slight federal fiscal boost in most of 2017, rising to +0.4–0.5pp in Q4 2017 and Q1 2018, before fading slightly to around +0.25pp in the remainder of 2018. </p> <p>The chart below summarizes Goldman's overall estimates for the boost to GDP growth from fiscal policy. The bottom line is that anyone who expects a bif bounce in economic growth from Trump's policies will have to wait until 2018 at the earliest... assuming the US does not slide into recession first.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/fs%20fiscal%20boost.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/12/07/fs%20fiscal%20boost_0.png" width="500" height="262" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="700" height="367" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/fs%20fiscal%20boost.png?1481225467" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-08/waiting-trump-fiscal-stimulus-hit-forget-about-2017#comments American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Business Congress Deficit reduction in the United States Economic policy Economy Joint Tax Committee Obamacare Politics Presidency of Barack Obama Recession recovery Tax Tax cut Trump Administration United States federal budget Thu, 08 Dec 2016 19:33:39 +0000 Tyler Durden 580090 at http://www.zerohedge.com