http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/news/italy-miss-gdp-forecast-sees-sub-1-gdp-growth/%25252A en Public School Accuses 5 Year Old of Making Terrorist Threats http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/public-school-accuses-5-year-old-making-terrorist-threats <p><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/public-school-accuses-5-year-old-of-making-terrorist-threats/">Via The Daily Bell</a></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">When I was in kindergarten, I found a knife in the pocket of a hand-me-down jacket I was wearing for the first time. I gave it to my teacher, and I don’t remember her reacting at all. She gave the knife to my parents when they picked me up at the end of the day. And that was that.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">I used to run around at recess at that age with the other kids, and use bent sticks as fake guns. We shot at each other, rolled down hills dying from fake bullet wounds, and used pinecones as grenades. Looking back that sounds a little bit morbid, but I think I ended up fine. I didn’t torture small animals nor did I become a serial killer. In fact, I never killed anything bigger than a bug until a few weeks ago when I slaughtered some chickens for the first time.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">I’m pretty confident that some of my 5-year-old artwork in school included death and destruction. But that was decades ago. Now, kids are labeled terrorists for acting like kids.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">It’s no wonder kids pretend the way they do with the violent focus of the media. You probably couldn’t insulate your kid from bombs and bloodshed if you tried. I wouldn’t be surprised if they discussed it in the kindergarten class.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Yet a 5-year-old was&nbsp;<a href="http://www.modbee.com/latest-news/article174321526.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #0c5b3c;">suspended for making a terrorist threat</a>. The tuition-free public charter school in Modesto California said the five-year-old&nbsp;intentionally made threats meant to intimidate and harass.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">The kid, Jackson, told the teacher he couldn’t take off his backpack because there was a bomb in it, and it would explode if he did. Sounds like a hero to me.</p> <blockquote style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 10px 20px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; font-size: 17.5px; border-left: 5px solid #eeeeee; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">The school initially sent the Rileys a letter saying their son was suspended for his intent to “threaten, intimidate or harass others.” The family was told that was the school code violation that best fit what happened, Ian Riley said.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">When the Rileys pointed out that code applied only to fourth- through 12th-graders, not kids as young as Jackson, the school agreed and so sent a second letter, changing the violation to one about making terrorist threats.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">“My son never made a threat, never wanted to blow up the school,” Riley said. “He was almost victimizing himself in his imagination, making himself the hero” by keeping the backpack on.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Though it was “all in the world of pretend play,” Michelle Riley told Fox, his not wanting to take off the backpack meant Jackson didn’t want to hurt anyone. “Where was the threat?”</p> </blockquote> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; text-align: center;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold;">Public Schools Are Trash</span></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Public schools are more than just a waste of time. Public schools are a threat to parents and a psychological liability to kids. As this case points out, they punish kids for pretending. Better watch that imagination! And watch what you say.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Public schools put kids in the presence of strangers that they and you do not know. It opens kids up to the influence of other kids they may never otherwise come into contact with.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Some people might think this is a good thing, but why? Why expose your kids to bullies and tiny thugs? If you want your kids to get some culture, you can certainly find groups that you can vet first. There is no psychological benefit to putting your kids in contact with questionable authorities and abusive peers.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">“They’ll have to deal with it when they are older.” Maybe, maybe not. If so, let them deal with it when they are older. Then they will hopefully not be scarred by authority figures labeling them a terrorist for no reason. They should be secure in themselves by then to know their peers’ derision is not a reflection on them.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">If they never come into contact with bullies and bigheaded authorities, great! You helped them avoid being around terrible people.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Homeschool your kid, find an alternative program, hire a tutor, send them to private school, or whatever. Do what you have to in order to insulate them from agents of the state and their asinine methods of dealing with children.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Otherwise, you are gambling with their wellbeing. You can’t control everything, but you can stop the state from programming your kid to be what they think is a perfect citizen. Obedient, only acting with permission, and having no imagination.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">I’m not knocking all public school teachers. My mom has taught fifth grade for nearly twenty years. What has she witnessed?</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Ballooning administration who&nbsp;get hired for their last two years before retirement to boost their pension. A growing focus on lessons to do well on state standardized tests in order to make the school look good. Being told she is not allowed to fail a kid, and that it is against policy to hold kids back a grade. And she works for probably one of the better public schools!</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Last year she was blamed for a fifth grader being unable to read, and for her failure to bring it to the attention of administration and&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">parents</em>. Yes, the&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">parents</em>&nbsp;didn’t know that their kid couldn’t read, it was the teacher’s responsibility!</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">That is how much some of these people have abandoned their parental roles to the state.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Like my mom, plenty of teachers truly love teaching. Lucky for her, she will soon retire and be able to teach in the private sector without state pressure directing her methods.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Lucky for young teachers, there are many other private sector options if you want to teach kids, but not serve as a state behavior enforcer.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Parents can encourage these alternative schooling methods by finding unique programs, homeschooling, and supplementing specific classes and tutoring.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Don’t let the government mold the psychology of the next generation.</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/public-school-accuses-5-year-old-making-terrorist-threats#comments Ballooning administration Education Fail Gambling Thu, 21 Sep 2017 17:21:06 +0000 TDB 603931 at http://www.zerohedge.com Government Regulation, Crony Capitalism Is Keeping 1000s In Florida Without Power http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/government-regulation-crony-capitalism-keeping-1000s-florida-without-power <p><a href="https://mises.org/blog/government-regulation-and-crony-capitalism-keeping-thousands-florida-without-power"><em>Authored by Tho Bishop via The Mises Institute,</em></a></p> <div class="body-content clearfix"> <p>Almost two weeks have passed since Hurricane Irma made landfall in South Florida, <strong><a href="http://www.news-press.com/story/weather/hurricane/2017/09/19/irma-update-over-38-000-customers-remain-without-power-lee-county/682846001/" target="_blank">yet tens of thousands remain without power</a>.</strong> With temperatures regularly eclipsing over 90 degrees, these outages are not only a grave inconvenience for Floridians cleaning up after the storm, but<strong> have <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/editorials/editorial-no-floridian-should-survive-hurricane-die-in-heat/2337537" target="_blank">proved to be deadly.</a></strong> Given the power of Irma, it is not surprising that it has left behind incredible devastation. <strong>Unfortunately it is also not surprising that it is a government-protected utility that has done the most to impede recovery. </strong>The pain and suffering currently being felt is the direct result of government policy and the perverse incentives of crony capitalism.</p> <p><a href="http://www.iflscience.com/policy/illegal-power-home-solar-panels-florida/" target="_blank">One of the talked about examples</a> of how bad policy is making things worse for Florida families are a variety of<strong> government policies that <a href="http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/miami-frustrated-with-fpl-after-hurricane-irma-9666311" target="_blank">discourages the use of solar power in the Sunshine State</a>.</strong> Government policy dictates that Floridians are <strong>required to be connected to the central power grid, even if they have enough solar panels installed to power their entire house.</strong> Because of this requirement, a family stuck in areas without power with solar panels installed cannot use them now because doing so could endanger workers trying to restore power for their neighbors. Once again government&rsquo;s desire for centralized control has unintended consequences.</p> <p>Of course, even without such rules, it&rsquo;s unlikely that all of Florida would decide to go off the grid. Given that,<strong> it&rsquo;s important to understand how the legal monopoly granted to electric companies not only traps customers into being entirely reliant upon a single company, but actively incentivizes those companies to be reactive &ndash; rather than proactive</strong> &ndash; when it comes to natural disasters and other events that threaten service.</p> <p><strong>After all, companies like Florida Power &amp; Light will respond to Irma as they have done to hurricanes past, <a href="http://www.sun-sentinel.com/business/fl-bz-nsf-psc-oks-fpl-hurricane-surcharge-20170207-story.html" target="_blank">by increasing prices on their customers</a>. </strong>&nbsp;Unfortunately, the revenue reaped seems to have made little impact in FPL&rsquo;s preparedness for future storms. While the company has reported that its recovery efforts have moved faster this year than when Hurricane Wilma hit South Florida in 2005, more residents suffered outrages due to Irma &ndash; in spite of the fact that Wilma actually had higher sustained <a href="http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/miami-frustrated-with-fpl-after-hurricane-irma-9666311" target="_blank">winds when it made landfall</a>. &nbsp;</p> <p>Along with the temporary wage hikes following storms, <strong>the company also charges annual &ldquo;storm fees&rdquo;</strong> meant to pay for tree maintenance around power lines. FPL is now facing a class-action lawsuit in the aftermath of Irma <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article174049616.html" target="_blank">over their apparent failure to do so</a>. &nbsp;Legal cases are certainly nothing new to FPL, as they have often legally <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article164142332.html" target="_blank">fought measures requiring</a> more of their powerlines to be buried underground, rather than be subjected to tropical storm winds above.</p> <p><strong>While FPL may be skimping on storm preparedness, they do make significant investments in the one resource that is truly vital to their business model: <u>government</u>.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/stateroundup/utilities-fpl-and-teco-in-florida-lead-pack-in-political-contributions/1045265" target="_blank">FPL and other power companies are regularly among</a> the largest political contributors in the state of Florida. In return, their lobbyists have been able to earn significant <a href="http://www.bradenton.com/news/local/article34872393.html" target="_blank">influence in writing</a> energy legislation in the state of Florida. Of course this is the inevitable result of government granting monopolies to private companies. Isolated from the competition of the market, a business has no need to satisfy the needs of the customer, they only need to protect the relationship they have with government. Mises summed it up well in <em>Human Action</em> when he wrote, <em><strong>&ldquo;Corruption is a regular effect of interventionism.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> <p>Now given the amount of heat companies like FPL are facing following Irma, it&rsquo;s possible the companies may finally have the political incentive to make some changes in the way they conduct business. Legislators may even be shamed into removing some of the restrictions on solar panels.</p> <p>What Florida really needs, however, is to do away with the entire concept of natural monopolies for public utilities. There should be no legislation arbitrarily awarding either private or public companies a commercial fiefdom by legally protecting them from competition. Doing so ensures that desires of customers will always take a back seat to the good will of politicians, and will stifle the ability of the market to innovate superior methods of delivering such important services.</p> <p>As Murray Rothbard wrote in <em><a href="https://mises.org/library/power-and-market-government-and-economy/html/pp/568">Man, Economy, and State</a></em>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p style="margin-left: .5in;">Regulation of public utilities or of any other industry discourages investment in these industries, thereby depriving consumers of the best satisfaction of their wants. For it distorts the resource allocations of the free market. Prices set below the free market create an artificial shortage of the utility service; prices set above those determined by the free market impose restrictions and a monopoly price on the consumers. Guaranteed rates of return exempt the utility from the free play of market forces and impose burdens on the consumers by distorting market allocations.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Hurricanes in Florida are as inevitable as Florida Man headlines.</strong> It is not a matter of if Florida will be hit with another powerful storm, but when will it happen next. <em><strong>If its state government wants to truly do everything it can to protect its citizens from the damage Mother Nature can wrought, it should free them from the devastation they face at the hands of government monopolies and crony capitalism.&nbsp;</strong></em></p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="234" height="142" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170921_fl.jpg?1506006415" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/government-regulation-crony-capitalism-keeping-1000s-florida-without-power#comments Capitalism Corruption Crony capitalism Economic liberalism Economy Energy Florida Florida Power & Light Free market headlines Hurricane Wilma Market failure Mises Institute Mises Institute Monopoly Natural monopoly NextEra Energy recovery South Florida Thu, 21 Sep 2017 17:20:48 +0000 Tyler Durden 603917 at http://www.zerohedge.com What Catalyst Could Trigger A Credit Risk-Off Event? Here's The UBS Answer http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/what-catalyst-could-trigger-credit-risk-event-heres-ubs-answer <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"What is THE catalyst?"</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>As all traders know, and as UBS repeats this morning in a new report by credit strategist Matthew Mish, one if not the mostly commonly asked questions is "<strong>what events could disrupt global corporate credit markets heading into year-end and early 2018." </strong></p> <p>Also, as traders may or may not also know, until August corporate credit markets had experienced a prolonged period of relative stability since February 2016; <strong>empirically, the last time markets experienced 18 months in which US high yield bond spreads m/m failed to widen materially was back in 1992-93</strong>. </p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/UBS%20credit%201_0.jpg" width="500" height="318" /></p> <p>So, in an attempt to answer this most frequently asked question, UBS utilize two approaches. </p> <p>First, it categorized historical bouts of widening going back 12 years (based on the US high yield synthetic spreads) to capture vol events in the largest higher beta segment of global corporate credit. Further, developed market spreads (US, European) are highly correlated across most time periods, suggesting this analysis is more broadly applicable.</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/UBS%20credit%202_0.jpg" width="500" height="319" /></p> <p>Cumulatively, <strong>UBS observes approximately 42 months or 23% of the sample in which CDX.HY spreads widen more than 20bp </strong>(roughly equivalent to 3-month breakeven levels), with an average spread widening of 58bp. The Swiss bank then reviewed news headlines to approximately identify the root causes of the sell-offs. </p> <p><strong>In short, the key catalysts for prior sell-offs included US monetary policy tightening (#1), financial and sovereign crises (#2, 3), deterioration in US economic data and/or corporate profits (#4), geopolitical shocks (#5), oil price declines/ global growth weakness (#6), and credit-specific (more idiosyncratic) events.</strong></p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/ubs%20credit%203_0.jpg" width="500" height="275" /></p> <p>Mish's analysis then looks at the "qualitative perspective" of rising risk. Below the strategist discusses his core views across the key historical catalysts for spread widening episodes.</p> <p><strong>US monetary policy tightening: </strong>The Federal Reserve announced balance sheet tapering with implementation in October, but do not expect significant market volatility <strong>as UBS economists project a shorter and smaller unwind than consensus </strong>(with the balance sheet only declining from $4.5trn to $3.3trn in 2.7 years). However, <strong>Fed rate hikes are a bigger concern. </strong>UBS expects the Fed to hike in December and twice in 2018, while bond yields imply a ~60% chance of a December rate hike, and a similar likelihood of a second additional rate hike by December 2018. This is too low, given improving inflation dynamics (albeit from low levels) and easier financial conditions. This could pressure lower-quality US HY moderately (akin to the March sell-off) while reducing the attractiveness of US investment-grade credit for non-US investors (on a FX-hedged basis). Further, UBS also believes <strong>the nomination of a new Fed chair before year-end could create near-term volatility in markets. </strong>Mish notes that his client conversations suggest most are expecting little change in the status quo; that said, the nomination process has triggered material short-term vol previously (e.g., Bernanke's candidacy in 2005 triggered a 20-30bp rise in 10yr Treasury yields).</p> <p><strong>EU monetary policy tightening: </strong>UBS also expects the <strong>ECB to announce tapering on October 26th to being January 2018</strong>. While the pace of tapering may be less than initially expected, given Euro strength, the direction of travel is clear. With deflation risks having dissipated, <strong>the ECB will have to reduce its asset purchases as PSPP issuer limits become binding. </strong>That said, like with the Fed, ECB tapering is now well-flagged. Hence, while clearly not a positive for European credit markets, it no longer creates the cliff which was feared previously. The ECB is expected to remain accommodative, be present in credit markets well into 2018 and rate hikes are expected in 2019 at the earliest. </p> <p><strong>Credit-specific risks: </strong>As the US credit cycle matures micro or industry-specific credit risks are increasingly relevant to monitor (e.g., telecoms in '99, housing in '06). Here are some specific observations from the UBS credit team: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>US high grade and high yield markets currently exhibit material dispersion among industries, and similar divergences, while imperfect, can foreshadow pressure points and potential broader market weakness (Figures 4, 5). In HY the laggards are all service sectors – retail (702bp, 2.6% market weight), broadcasting (637bp, 3.2%) and oil and gas (555bp, 6.7%) vs. the broader market (388bp, 100%), reflecting pressures due to significant debt/ leverage growth and/or secular fundamental headwinds. In IG the outliers include telecoms (160bp, 5.1%), gas pipelines (172bp, 3.7%), and cable media (147bp, 3.5%) vs. the overall index (109bp, 100%), representing a mix of significant (long-dated) debt issuance and releveraging related risks. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/UBS%20credit%204_1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/UBS%20credit%204_1_0.jpg" width="500" height="360" /></a> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In Europe, comparatively, IG spread dispersion is more compressed in part given the indiscriminate ECB bond buying across non-financial corporates (Figures 6, 7). While this could distort more idiosyncratic credit stresses, net leverage across bond market issuers is not overly concerning, especially given European issuers have had ample opportunity to re-gear balance sheets but thus far have not moved aggressively. We don't rule out increased shareholder activism and M&amp;A for IG firms, but we believe Europe is earlier in the credit cycle and more sector-specific events are less likely to be a primary catalyst for macro spread performance.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Oil price projections: </strong>UBS' energy analysts expect oil prices to trade sideways (WTI at $47, $51, and $49 in Q3, Q4 and Q1'18) as the rebound in US production and uncertainty around the OPEC agreement&nbsp; has counterbalanced stronger global demand. The key downside risks include weaker global growth and a breakdown in the current OPEC/non-OPEC production agreement. <strong>Both scenarios, while not the bank's base case, could push WTI back into the high $30s, triggering a material spread widening event</strong>.</p> <p><strong>China economic outlook: </strong>The material slowdown in <strong>China's credit impulse is contributing to a slowdown in the property sector and import demand. </strong>However, alternative definitions of the Chinese credit impulse look more benign and one has actually bottomed. Recent data suggests recent property activity rebounded across the board, while retail sales, IP and FAI all missed expectations; this is consistent with a stable albeit slower economic backdrop, with real GDP expected to soften slightly to 6.7-6.8% this quarter vs. 6.9% in Q2. Shadow loan books remain a sleeper issue that is highly concentrated in regional banks and smaller joint-stock banks; while these loans pose potential contagion risk between banks, UBS does not conclude a systemic event is imminent.</p> <p><strong>US economic/earnings outlook: </strong>Fundamentally, at least on paper, global economic data has improved in recent weeks while US consumer and business sentiment remain elevated, even as inflation remains largely missing. ISM surveys continue to make new highs while corporate profits, even in the (revised) Q2 GDP report, showed a stronger-than-expected rise. Dollar weakness will also create a tailwind to US earnings by Q4’17 and Q1’18, boosting multinational profits. <strong>That said, earnings growth is improving but has not been broad based (ex- resource firms), the USD tailwind will accrue less to domestically focused firms (84 and 78%, respectively, of US HY and IG revenues) and firms on balance are not de-levering materially from near peak levels (Figure 8). </strong></p> <p><strong>EU economic outlook: </strong>European economic data had a very strong performance in 1H17, and is expected to continue into 2H17, albeit at a slower pace. Eurozone GDP is to remain well above its trend in both 2017 and 2018 (Eurozone GDP is estimated to be 2.0% and 1.6% for 2017 and 2018 respectively), but slow from its highs of 2Q17 (0.6% q/q and 2.3% y/y). <strong>PMIs and corporate earnings momentum also peaked in May and are now stabilising and holding steady heading into 2H17 </strong>with 2017 on target to be the first solid profit growth in seven years (13% y/y consensus) but further Euro strength suggests potential downside risk to future earnings in non-domestic companies. Finally, <strong>European companies (excluding lower quality HY firms) are not re-levering balance sheets in similar fashion as seen in the US.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/UBS%20credit%205.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/UBS%20credit%205_0.jpg" width="500" height="317" /></a></p> <p>Furthermore, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-15/goldman-becoming-increasingly-bearish-junk-bonds">like Goldman last week</a>, UBS which has a decidedly cautious bias toward credit has shifted its allocations within the space, but unlike Goldman, UBS is rotating away from IG and into HY: "<em>we shift our preference for US high grade over high yield back to neutral on a total return basis as US yields normalize incrementally higher from current levels (YE targets: 10yr 2.4%). The narrowing in US high yield market vs. model spreads coupled with outperformance in US Treasury yields leaves us incrementally more positive on US high yield.</em>"</p> <p><em>In short: </em>anyone hoping for a "gotcha" and a specific date with risk-off destiny will be disappointed because while UBS points out risks in general are rising - especially on the monetary policy front - it does not see any one explicit catalyst as launching an imminent risk-off event in credit markets. While the recent low-vol regime is certainly an outlier, and is now the most extended in a quarter century, absent a notable change in the status quo the Swiss bank is confident the current path will continue.&nbsp; </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="782" height="498" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/UBS%20credit%201.jpg?1506012828" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/what-catalyst-could-trigger-credit-risk-event-heres-ubs-answer#comments Bond Bond Business China Corporate bond Economic bubbles Economy European Central Bank European Union Eurozone Federal Reserve Finance Financial crises Financial crisis headlines High Yield Investment Monetary Policy Money Nomination OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Regional Banks Subprime mortgage crisis Systemic risk U.S. Treasury UBS US Federal Reserve Volatility Thu, 21 Sep 2017 17:03:23 +0000 Tyler Durden 603929 at http://www.zerohedge.com World's Richest Woman Dies Age 94 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/worlds-richest-woman-dies-age-94 <p>Alice Walton, of Wal-Mart family infamy, is now the richest woman in the world, as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ee064507-824e-381c-a798-8e6db46752a3?emailId=59c3e8bb7d9e7600045afeef&amp;segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb">The FT reports</a> <strong>Liliane Bettencourt, the heiress of cosmetics giant L&rsquo;Oreal and world&rsquo;s richest woman, has died at the age of 94</strong>.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_rich1.jpg"><img height="364" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_rich1.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ee064507-824e-381c-a798-8e6db46752a3?emailId=59c3e8bb7d9e7600045afeef&amp;segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb"><em>The FT details </em></a>that<strong> Bettencourt was the daughter of chemist Eugène Schueller, who founded the company in 1909.</strong> According to Forbes magazine&rsquo;s ranking of global billionaires, she topped the list of the world&rsquo;s richest women for the second year in a row in 2017 with an estimated net worth of $39.5bn. She stepped down from L&rsquo;Oreal&rsquo;s board in 2012 following a 17-year tenure, and her shareholding has been under the guardianship of family members since 2011, when a court concluded that she was unfit to look after it herself.</p> <p><strong>Bettencourt was the richest woman in the world but only the 15th richest person in the world</strong>.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_rich3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_rich3.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 529px;" /></a></p> <p>And with Bettencourt&#39;s passing, Wal-Mart&#39;s Alice Walton (19th overall in the world) becomes the richest woman in the world...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_rich4.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_rich4_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 480px;" /></a></p> <p>L&rsquo;Oreal chairman and chief executive Jean-Paul Agon said in a statement that<em><strong> Bettencourt &ldquo;personally contributed greatly&rdquo; to the company&rsquo;s success and &ldquo;was a great lady of beauty who has left us and whom we will never forget.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;We all had a great admiration for Liliane Bettencourt, who always looked after L&rsquo;Oreal, the company and its employees, and was very attached to its success and development.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p><em>&nbsp;</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="488" height="296" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170921_rich1.jpg?1506012284" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/worlds-richest-woman-dies-age-94#comments Alice Walton Bettencourt Business Economy Eugène Schueller French people Jean-Paul Agon L'Oréal Liliane Liliane Bettencourt Pornograffitti Thu, 21 Sep 2017 16:45:13 +0000 Tyler Durden 603927 at http://www.zerohedge.com Trump Launches New Sanctions On North Korea Through Executive Order http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/trump-launches-new-sanctions-north-korea-through-executive-order <p>As Gen. McMaster previewed earlier in the day, moments ago President Trump announced a new executive action that "significantly expands" US authority to target individuals, companies and financial institutions that finance or facilitate trade with North Korea. </p> <p>“I am announcing a new executive order to sign that significantly expands authorities to target individuals, companies, financial institutions that finance and facilitate trade with North Korea,” Trump said.</p> <p>While details remains scarce, among the notable big picture actions to be taken include:</p> <ul> <li>TRUMP SAYS CHINA'S CENTRAL BANK HAS ORDERED THEIR BANKS TO STOP DOING BUSINESS WITH NORTH KOREA</li> <li>TRUMP SAYS EFFORT WILL ALSO TARGET NORTH KOREAS SHIPPING, TRADE NETWORKS</li> </ul> <p>The official announcement, which was made just before a United Nations summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Here's Trump introducing the new executive order <a href="https://t.co/IG0qOO6mRv">pic.twitter.com/IG0qOO6mRv</a></p> <p>— Meg Wagner (@megwagner) <a href="https://twitter.com/megwagner/status/910904249869111296">September 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Japan was happy with the announcement":</p> <ul> <li>JAPAN'S SHINZO ABE WELCOMES NEW ACTION BY UNITED STATES</li> <li>JAPAN'S ABE: `NEW STAGE OF PRESSURE' AGAINST NORTH KOREA</li> </ul> <p>That said, as discussed earlier, Trump has once again refused to push the boundary too far and anger China, and as a result the president once again refused to implement any oil-linked sanctions, potentially limiting the only trade flow between China and North Korea that matters. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="316" height="190" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/trump%20korea%20sanctions.jpg?1506011736" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/trump-launches-new-sanctions-north-korea-through-executive-order#comments American people of German descent China Climate change skepticism and denial Donald Trump Foreign policy of Donald Trump Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration Japan North Korea People's Bank of China Politics Shinz? Abe The Apprentice Twitter Twitter United Nations United States WWE Hall of Fame Thu, 21 Sep 2017 16:38:20 +0000 Tyler Durden 603926 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Fed Balance Sheet Reduction is a Distraction From the REAL Crisis http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/fed-balance-sheet-reduction-distraction-real-crisis <p>Everyone is making a big deal about the Fed&#39;s so-called &quot;balance sheet reduction&rdquo; which starts next month.</p> <p>Let&rsquo;s assess some facts.</p> <p>First of all, the Fed plans on shrinking its balance sheet by $10-$30 billion per month. The Fed balance sheet is currently $4.5 trillion. So at this pace of unwinding it would take somewhere<b><u> between 13 and 33 years </u></b>for the Fed to normalize its balance sheet back to pre-2008 levels.</p> <p>So the notion that this is significant is off base. It borders on irrelevant.</p> <p>Second of all, the only reason the Fed is even discussing a balance sheet reduction is because stocks are soaring. The second that stocks begin to correct, multiple Fed officials will appear on TV talking about how it&rsquo;s time to &ldquo;slow the pace&rdquo; or even &ldquo;halt&rdquo; its balance sheet reduction.</p> <p>Let&rsquo;s get real here.</p> <p>The reality is that the stock market is the ONLY thing the Fed can point to as a success. The economy from 2008 to 2016 was in the weakest recovery in 80+ years. Indeed, the Fed has all but given up on the farce that it cares about the economy: yesterday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen herself admitted publicly yesterday that the Fed takes account of &ldquo;asset prices&rdquo; when it comes to rate hikes.</p> <p>In Fed-speak, asset prices=stocks. And that&rsquo;s the #1 focus for the Fed when it comes to monetary policy.</p> <p>So what does this mean?</p> <p>The Fed is going to engage in some symbolic shrinking of its balance sheet, but the second things get messy for stocks, the Fed will start walking back this policy.</p> <p>And THAT opens the door to the REAL crisis.</p> <p>A crisis of inflation.</p> <p>The $USD is imploding. It bounced a bit courtesy of the Fed announcement yesterday, but it&#39;s in SERIOUS trouble having taken out critical support.</p> <p><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2017/09/13/GPC921171.png" style="width: 460px; height: 284px;" /></p> <p>The long-term chart is even uglier.</p> <p><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2017/09/13/GPC921172.png" style="width: 460px; height: 284px;" /></p> <p>The real CRISIS is the collapse of the $USD. And it&#39;s one the Fed doesn&#39;t want to stop. Indeed, as soon as stocks begin to correct, the Fed will start walking back all talk of a balance sheet reduction. And if we enter another crisis, the $USD will drop even farther as the Fed cranks up the printing presses with more QE.</p> <p>Put simply, the big crisis will be &nbsp;the collapse of the $USD. And it&#39;s already underway.</p> <p>If you&rsquo;re not taking steps to actively profit from this, it&rsquo;s time to get a move on.</p> <p>We just published a Special Investment Report concerning a secret back-door play on Gold that gives you access to 25 million ounces of Gold that the market is currently valuing at just $273 per ounce.</p> <p>The report is titled <em><strong>The Gold Mountain: How to Buy Gold at $273 Per Ounce</strong></em></p> <p>We are giving away just 100 copies for FREE to the public.</p> <p>As I write this, there are 9 left.</p> <p>To pick up yours, swing by:</p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/goldmountain.html">https://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/goldmountain.html</a></strong></p> <p>Best Regards</p> <p>Graham Summers</p> <p>Chief Market Strategist</p> <p>Phoenix Capital Research</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/fed-balance-sheet-reduction-distraction-real-crisis#comments Business Federal Reserve System Finance Financial markets Gold as an investment Investment Janet Yellen Monetary Policy Monetary policy Money Reality recovery US Federal Reserve Thu, 21 Sep 2017 16:20:49 +0000 Phoenix Capital Research 603924 at http://www.zerohedge.com Equifax Accidentally Directs 200,000 Customers To Fake Phishing Website http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/equifax-accidentally-directs-200000-customers-fake-phishing-website <p>And the hits just keep coming for Equifax, the once-trusted credit-monitoring firm that has been embroiled in one of the biggest corporate public-relations disasters in recent memory since disclosing that hackers had penetrated its cyber security defenses and absconded with sensitive personal and financial data belonging to 143 million Americans. Because of the types of data that were stolen, including drivers&#39; license, social security and credit-card numbers, experts have described the hack as possibly the most damaging corporate hack yet.</p> <p>As if this weren&rsquo;t enough to permanently sully the firm&rsquo;s reputation (amid cries of &ldquo;you had one job!&rdquo;) &ndash; the staggering irony of a credit monitoring firm inadvertently divulging the sensitive information that it was supposed to safeguard hasn&rsquo;t been lost on consumers) a series of subsequent disclosures have portrayed the firm&rsquo;s executives as bungling, at best, and nefarious, at worst.</p> <p>In the nearly two weeks since the story broke&hellip;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><ul> <li>It was revealed that three of the firm&rsquo;s executives, including its CFO, cashed out of stocks and options worth some $2 million in the month between when the company first learned about the hack, and when it was disclosed to the public. A federal prosecutor in Atlanta has opened a criminal investigation into Equifax that will focus both on whether the firm was criminally negligent in failing to patch a hole in its cybersecurity systems, as well as whether the suspect stock sales constitute securities fraud.</li> <li>The company&rsquo;s head of cyber security was revealed to have no background in computer science or security &ndash; a fact the company tried to hastily cover up by scrubbing her social-media profiles. <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-15/another-equifax-coverup-did-company-scrub-its-chief-security-officer-was-music-major">Susan Mauldin,</a> Equifax&rsquo;s chief information security officer, has a bachelor&rsquo;s degree in music composition and a master&rsquo;s in fine arts from the University of Georgia.</li> <li>Several Congressional committees have asked the company to turn over information relating to the hack as multiple investigations appear to be getting under way. The attorneys general of a handful of states, including Massachusetts and Rhode Island, have joined a probe into the company&rsquo;s handling of the breach.</li> <li>The company has been hit with dozens of lawsuits from consumers alleging fraud, abuse and negligence.</li> <li>Equifax CEO Rick Smith has been called to testify before a special House panel early next month.</li> </ul> </blockquote> <p>When Equifax first set up a website to allow consumers to check whether their information was compromised, it carried a waiver stating that by using the service consumers would forfeit the right to sue Equifax. The internet quickly exploded in outrage, and the company quickly clarified that the waiver didn&rsquo;t apply to this hacking incident, which&hellip;sure. Now, <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/20/16339612/equifax-tweet-wrong-website-phishing-identity-monitoring">The Verge</a>,<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/business/equifax-fake-website.html?_r=1"> The New York Times </a><strong>and a handful of other media outlets are reporting that Equifax accidentally tweeted the link to an imposter website set up by a white-hat hacker hoping to expose gllaring errors that the firm had made in setting up its verification website. This happened not once, but three times. And in at least one instance, the tweet with the phony link was left up for a whole day.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.21equifax.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.21equifax_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 188px;" /></a></p> <p>Here&rsquo;s <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/20/16339612/equifax-tweet-wrong-website-phishing-identity-monitoring">The Verge:</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Today, Equifax ended up creating that exact situation on Twitter. In a tweet to a potential victim, the credit bureau linked to securityequifax2017.com, instead of equifaxsecurity2017.com. It was an easy mistake to make, but the result sent the user to a site with no connection to Equifax itself. Equifax deleted the tweet shortly after this article was published, but it remained live for nearly 24 hours.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Luckily for consumers, the fake site wasn&rsquo;t malicious. Instead, it was set up by developer Nick Sweeting to try and expose the glaring security vulnerabilities that the company had embedded in its recovery website, which it set up as a separate domain, rather than making it a subdomain of Equifax&rsquo;s main website.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Luckily, the alternate URL Equifax sent the victim to isn&rsquo;t malicious. Full-stack developer Nick Sweeting set up the misspelled phishing site in order to expose vulnerabilities that existed in Equifax&#39;s response page. <strong>&ldquo;I made the site because Equifax made a huge mistake by using a domain that doesn&#39;t have any trust attached to it [as opposed to hosting it on equifax.com],&rdquo; </strong>Sweeting tells The Verge. <strong>&ldquo;It makes it ridiculously easy for scammers to come in and build clones &mdash; they can buy up dozens of domains, and typo-squat to get people to type in their info.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Sweeting says no data will leave his page and that he &quot;removed any risk of leaking data via network requests by redirecting them back to the user&#39;s own computer,&quot; so hopefully data entered on his site is relatively safe. Still, Equifax&#39;s team linked out to his page. That isn&#39;t reassuring.&rdquo;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Not only did they tweet the wrong link, they tweeted it 3 times. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Equihax?src=hash">#Equihax</a> <a href="https://t.co/T8jrhSfhqw">pic.twitter.com/T8jrhSfhqw</a></p> <p>&mdash; Nick Sweeting ???? (@thesquashSH) <a href="https://twitter.com/thesquashSH/status/910562884639436800">September 20, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Prior to Equifax customer service sharing the imposter site, Sweeting says he emailed the company&rsquo;s support team and tweeted to Equifax that he spotted a potential vulnerability. By the time the site was taken down, <strong>Sweeting says it had received <em>more than 200,000 hits. </em>In the spirit of transparency, Sweeting included a disclaimer on his site warning consumers that it was a fake &ndash; and blasting Equifax for its sloppy security practices.</strong></p> <p>According to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/20/business/equifax-fake-website.html?_r=1">NYT</a>, phishers cannot create a page on the equifax.com domain, so if the website were hosted there instead, it would be easy for users to tell that the page was legitimate.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;Fortunately for the people who clicked, Mr. Sweeting&rsquo;s website was upfront about what it was. The layout was the same as the real version, complete with an identical prompt at the top: &ldquo;To enroll in complimentary identity theft protection and credit file monitoring, click here.&rdquo;</strong> But a headline in large text differed: &ldquo;Cybersecurity Incident &amp; Important Consumer Information Which is Totally Fake, Why Did Equifax Use A Domain That&rsquo;s So Easily Impersonated By Phishing Sites?&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>The legitimate Equifax domain was securityequifax2017.com. Sweeting&rsquo;s was equifaxsecurity2017.com. And as one cybersecurity expert told the NYT, even the legitimate website looks fake because it&rsquo;s not a subdomain of the larger Equifax site.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;You would think that would be the obvious place to start,&rdquo; said Rahul Telang, a professor of information systems at Carnegie Mellon University. &ldquo;Create a subdomain so that if somebody tries to fake it, it becomes immediately obvious.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>The company&rsquo;s actions, Telang told the NYT, suggest that it had never anticipated or planned for a breach.</p> <p>This has become clear in the last few weeks. Now, the only thing left to be decided is whether the fact that the company was almost comically unprepared for a hack rises to the level of criminal negligence.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="893" height="381" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.09.21teaser.JPG?1506002015" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/equifax-accidentally-directs-200000-customers-fake-phishing-website#comments Card security code Carnegie Mellon University Credit Credit bureau Credit report monitoring Credit scoring Cybercrime E-commerce Equifax Finance Identity theft Money New York Times Phishing recovery Securities Fraud Technology Transparency Twitter Twitter University of Georgia Thu, 21 Sep 2017 16:20:05 +0000 Tyler Durden 603910 at http://www.zerohedge.com Jamie Dimon Faces Market Abuse Claim Over "False, Misleading" Bitcoin Comments http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/jamie-dimon-faces-market-abuse-claim-over-false-misleading-bitcoin-comments <p>A week after Jamie Dimon made headlines by proclaiming Bitcoin a &quot;fraud&quot; and anyone who owns it as &quot;stupid,&quot; <strong><em>the JPMorgan CEO faces a market abuse claim for &quot;spreading false and misleading information&quot; about bitcoin</em></strong>.</p> <p>Unless you have been living under a rock for the past week, you will be well aware of <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-12/bitcoin-tumbles-after-jamie-dimon-calls-it-fraud-would-fire-anyone-trading-it">JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon&#39;s panicked outburst with regard the &#39;fraud&#39; that Bitcoin&#39;s &#39;tulip-like&#39; bubble is</a>. To paraphrase:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&quot;It&rsquo;s a fraud. It&rsquo;s making stupid people, such as my daughter, feel like they&rsquo;re geniuses. It&rsquo;s going to get somebody killed. I&rsquo;ll fire anyone who touches it.&quot;</em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170918_dimon.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170918_dimon.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 350px;" /></a></p> <p>One week later, an algorithmic liquidity provider called Blockswater has filed a market abuse report against&nbsp;<a href="http://www.cityam.com/people/jamie-dimon">Jamie Dimon</a>&nbsp;for &quot;spreading false and misleading information&quot; about bitcoin.</p> <p>The firm filed the report with the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority against&nbsp;<a href="http://www.cityam.com/company/jpmorgan-american-investment-trust">JPMorgan</a> Chase and Dimon, the company&#39;s chief executive. Blockswater said Dimon violated Article 12 of the European Union&#39;s Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) by declaring that cryptocurrency bitcoin was &quot;a fraud&quot;.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The complaint said<strong> Dimon&#39;s statement negatively impacted &quot;the cryptocurrency&#39;s price and reputation&quot;.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It also said Dimon &quot;knew, or ought to have known, that the information he disseminated was false and misleading&quot;.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&quot;Jamie Dimon&#39;s public assertions did not only affect the reputation of bitcoin, they harmed the interests of some of his own clients and many young businesses that are working hard to create a better financial system,&rdquo;</strong> said Florian Schweitzer, managing partner at Blockswater.</p> </blockquote> <p>Blockswater said JPMorgan traded bitcoin derivatives for their clients on Stockholm-based exchange Nasdaq Nordic before and after Dimon&#39;s statements (<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-16/if-jamie-dimon-hates-it-so-much-then-why-jpmorgan-buying-bitcoin-europe">as we detailed here</a>), which <strong>Schweitzer said &quot;smells like market manipulation&quot;.</strong></p> <p>Blockswater works with blockchain-based assets based in London and Austria. Its full complaint is below:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Blockswater Files Market Abuse Report Against Jamie Dimon in Stockholm</strong><br />Blockswater LLP believes that Dimon violated EU&rsquo;s Market Abuse Regulation by &quot;spreading false and misleading information&quot; about bitcoin</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>STOCKHOLM/NEW YORK/LONDON/VIENNA, September 21, 2017 - Algorithmic liquidity provider Blockswater LLP filed a market abuse report with the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority (FI) against JPMorgan Chase and Co. CEO Jamie Dimon. Blockswater believes that Dimon violated Article 12 of the European Union&#39;s Market Abuse Regulation (MAR) by declaring that cryptocurrency bitcoin was &quot;a fraud.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The complaint filed with the Swedish authorities demonstrates how Dimon&#39;s statement negatively impacted &quot;the cryptocurrency&#39;s price and reputation.&rdquo; The document also lists evidence that suggests Dimon &quot;knew, or ought to have known, that the information he disseminated was false and misleading.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;Jamie Dimon&#39;s public assertions did not only affect the reputation of bitcoin, they harmed the interests of some of his own clients and many young businesses that are working hard to create a better financial system,&rdquo; says Florian Schweitzer, managing partner at Blockswater. JPMorgan traded bitcoin derivatives for their clients on Stockholm-based exchange Nasdaq Nordic before and after Dimon&#39;s statements fueled volatility in the market. &ldquo;That&rsquo;s a clear case of double standards and it smells like market manipulation.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Article 12 of the European Union&#39;s Market Abuse Regulation prohibits the manipulation of markets through practices such as spreading false or misleading information. Nasdaq Nordic, where exchange-traded notes on bitcoin are listed, defines the term &ldquo;market manipulation&rdquo; in accordance with the EU&rsquo;s definition as &ldquo;dissemination of information through the media, including the Internet, or by any other means that gives, or is likely to give, false or misleading signals as to Listed Products, including the dissemination of rumours and false or misleading news, where the person who made the dissemination knew, or ought to have known, that the information was false or misleading.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>FI confirmed receipt of the report but did not comment further except to state that the financial markets regulator &quot;will handle it according to [FI&#39;s] procedures.&quot;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Blockswater LLP is an algorithmic liquidity provider for blockchain-based assets based in London (UK) and Vienna (Austria).<br />&nbsp;<br />&nbsp;</p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="509" height="297" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170918_dimon_0.jpg?1505999888" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/jamie-dimon-faces-market-abuse-claim-over-false-misleading-bitcoin-comments#comments Alternative currencies Bitcoin Bitcoin Blockchains Business Chase Bank Cryptocurrencies Economy of New York City European Union European Union Finance Financial services Financial Supervisory Authority Financial Supervisory Authority against JPMorgan Chase and Dimon headlines House of Morgan Jamie Dimon Jamie Dimon JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase Market Manipulation NASDAQ Volatility Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:55:11 +0000 Tyler Durden 603908 at http://www.zerohedge.com 1 In 5 Students Endorse Violence To 'Prevent' Controversial Speakers http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/1-5-students-endorse-violence-prevent-controversial-speakers <p><a href="https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=9795"><em>Authored by Nikita Vladimirov via CampusReform.org,</em></a></p> <p>A new survey <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2017/09/18/views-among-college-students-regarding-the-first-amendment-results-from-a-new-survey/">published by The Brookings Institution</a> finds that about <strong>one-in-five undergraduate students approve of using violence to shut down controversial speakers</strong>.</p> <p><img height="383" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_free_0.jpg" width="600" /></p> <p>A majority of undergraduate students at U.S. four-year colleges and universities also <strong>agreed with a hypothetical protest in which a group &ldquo;opposed to the speaker disrupts the speech by loudly and repeatedly shouting so that the audience cannot hear the speaker.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>According to the survey, 51 percent of students agreed that such a demonstration would be acceptable, while 49 percent disagreed. Not surprisingly, the response to the hypothetical scenario was also largely partisan, with <u><strong>62 percent of Democrats approving of the protest, compared to just 39 percent of Republicans .</strong></u></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&ldquo;I find the numbers in the above table to be highly concerning, because they show that a very significant fraction of students, across all categories, believe it is acceptable to silence (by shouting) a speaker they find offensive,&rdquo;</em></strong> wrote John Villasenor, the author of the survey and a Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow.</p> </blockquote> <p>The study further found that 19 percent of responders said that they approved of using violence &ldquo;to prevent the speaker from speaking.&rdquo; An 81 percent majority, on the other hand, did not approve of the violent approach.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;A surprisingly large fraction of students believe it is acceptable to act&mdash;including resorting to violence&mdash;to shut down expression they consider offensive,&rdquo; </strong>Villasenor wrote.</p> </blockquote> <p>While 39 percent of responders indicated that hate speech is protected by the First &nbsp;Amendment, 44 percent said that it is not protected by the document. Another 16 percent remained undecided.</p> <p>In one survey question, the <strong>students were also asked if they prefered a learning environment where certain views are prohibited</strong> versus an open learning environment &ldquo;where students are exposed to all types of speech and viewpoints.&rdquo;</p> <p>According to the study, 53 percent of responders said that they prefer the former while only 47 percent chose the latter.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;The survey results establish with data what has been clear anecdotally to anyone who has been observing campus dynamics in recent years: Freedom of expression is deeply imperiled on U.S. campuses,&rdquo; Villasenor wrote.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;In fact, despite protestations to the contrary (often with statements like &lsquo;we fully support the First Amendment, but&hellip;&rsquo;),&rdquo; he asserted that<em><strong> &ldquo;freedom of expression is clearly not, in practice, available on many campuses, including many public campuses that have First Amendment obligations.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>Villasenor surveyed a pool of 1,500 undergraduate students at U.S. four-year colleges and universities between August 17 - 31. The margin of error is between 2-6 percent.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1091" height="697" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170921_free.jpg?1506007844" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/1-5-students-endorse-violence-prevent-controversial-speakers#comments Abuse Brookings Institution Censorship Education First Amendment Freedom of speech Harassment Hate crime Hate speech Human behavior Human rights Political correctness Social Issues Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:55:10 +0000 Tyler Durden 603921 at http://www.zerohedge.com "Whole Towns Have Been Wiped Out" Hurricane Maria Devastates Dominica; Death Toll Climbs To 15 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/whole-towns-have-been-wiped-out-hurricane-maria-devastates-tiny-caribbean-island-dom <p><strong>Update (1:00 pm ET):</strong> The prime minister of Dominica says the death toll from Hurricane Maria has risen to 15, with 20 people still missing, according to the Associated Press. He expects the death toll in the island&#39;s villages to rise.</p> <p>* * *</p> <p>In a testament to the sheer power of Hurricane Maria, the most destructive storm to hit the Caribbean in nearly a century, civilization on the tiny island of Dominica was essentially wiped out after Maria &ndash; then a category 5 storm &ndash; battered the island with 160 mph gusts, leveling whole towns and wiping out the island&rsquo;s electricity and communications infrastructure.</p> <p>The death toll on the island has climbed to 7 &ndash; but a complete count of casualties likely won&rsquo;t be possible for at least a few more days, as the island&rsquo;s shaken residents sift through the debris and contemplate what to do now that everything they and their neighbors owned has been destroyed.</p> <p><iframe frameborder="0" height="234" src="//fave.api.cnn.io/v1/fav/?video=world/2017/09/21/hurrricane-maria-dominica-fly-over-holmes-pkg.cnn&amp;customer=cnn&amp;edition=domestic&amp;env=prod" width="416"></iframe></p> <p>When <a href="http://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/09/21/hurrricane-maria-dominica-fly-over-holmes-pkg.cnn">CNN </a>flew over the island to survey the damage, it captured startling footage depicting whole villages decimated and thousands of trees snapped in half across the island. Houses ripped open. Evidence of numerous landslides.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.21dominica.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.21dominica_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 230px;" /></a></p> <p>The island&rsquo;s agriculture-based economy has been totally wiped out. As CNN points out, the complete destruction of the island&rsquo;s economy will compound the damage wrought by the storm by hopelessly complicating the recovery effort. Officials of nearby islands confirmed that the only electricity available on the island is coming from backup generators and car batteries.</p> <p>Philmore Mullin, head of Antigua and Barbuda&rsquo;s National Office of Disaster Services, told <a href="http://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2017/09/21/hurrricane-maria-dominica-fly-over-holmes-pkg.cnn">CNN </a>the only power available on the island was from emergency generators and car batteries<strong>. &ldquo;Damage is severe and widespread. We know of casualties, but not in detail. We&rsquo;ve heard of many missing but we just don&rsquo;t know much at the moment.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>According to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/21/dominica-daze-hurricane-maria-island-caribbean-rescue">Guardian</a>, Ross University school of medicine, which is based in Dominica, said it would being to evacuate its students, more than 80% of whom are US citizens, with close to 10% from Canada, by boat to St Lucia on Thursday if the weather permits.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.21dominicatwo.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.21dominicatwo_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 278px;" /></a></p> <p>Some Caribbean relief agencies have managed to airlift supplies to some parts of the island. They&rsquo;re hoping to send in aid workers equipped with satellite phones to help direct help to where it is needed.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Ronald Jackson, the executive director of the Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Management Agency, said staff had managed to guide helicopters to Dominica to deliver some food, water and shelter materials on Wednesday.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In an interview with Jamaica&rsquo;s RJR News, Jackson said the agency was planning to drop people into remote communities with satellite phones because many areas were completely inaccessible. Communications towers were snapped by winds of up to 160mph (260km/h).&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Even the island&rsquo;s prime minister, Roosevelt Skerrit, and his family had to be rescued from their home on the island as it flooded, according to an aid.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Hartley Henry, an adviser to the prime minister, Roosevelt Skerrit, said there had been a<strong> &ldquo;tremendous loss of housing and public buildings&rdquo;. There was no electricity and virtually no means of communicating with the outside world, he said.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Henry said he had spoken to Skerrit &ndash; who had to be rescued from his flooded residence during the hurricane &ndash; via satellite phone. <strong>&ldquo;He and family are fine: Dominica is not,&rdquo; he said.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;The main general hospital took a beating. Patient care has been compromised. Many buildings serving as shelters lost roofs, which means that an urgent need now is tarpaulins and other roofing materials.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s difficult to determine the level of fatalities but so far seven are confirmed as a direct result of the hurricane. That figure, the prime minister fears, will rise as he wades his way into the rural communities.&rdquo; </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Some districts were reporting &ldquo;total destruction&rdquo; of homes, roads and crops, Henry said. &ldquo;In summary, the island has been devastated.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Maria weakened to a category two storm on Thursday as it moved away from Puerto Rico and toward the Dominican Republic. But the US National Hurricane Center warned that it could yet regain strength.&nbsp; The NHC also warned that parts of PR remained vulnerable to flash flooding related to the storm.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Here are the 11 AM AST Key Messages for Hurricane <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Maria?src=hash">#Maria</a> <a href="https://t.co/c96pZ4Cock">https://t.co/c96pZ4Cock</a> <a href="https://t.co/Cg1GorG7eU">pic.twitter.com/Cg1GorG7eU</a></p> <p>&mdash; NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/910882114010320896">September 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>The official death toll from Hurricane Maria is 10, with two deaths confirmed on the French island of Guadeloupe, and one so far in Puerto Rico.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1088" height="500" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.09.21dominica.JPG?1506007153" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-21/whole-towns-have-been-wiped-out-hurricane-maria-devastates-tiny-caribbean-island-dom#comments Antigua and Barbuda’s National office of Disaster Services Caribbean Caribbean Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Management Agency Commonwealth of Nations Disaster Dominica Emergency Management Agency Environment flash Hurricane Maria Lesser Antilles Puerto Rico recovery Roosevelt Skerrit Twitter Twitter U.S. National Hurricane Center Weather World Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:34:56 +0000 Tyler Durden 603918 at http://www.zerohedge.com