en Frontrunning: June 22 <ul> <li>European stock markets stumble as oil languishes near lows (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Some Trump Aides Want a New Leader at the Fed (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Goal of Saudi Shake-Up: Drag Country Into the Modern Era (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Under fire in Washington, Trump back in campaign mode in Iowa (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Revenue Slides at Some Trump Businesses, but Vegas Tower Brings Windfall (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Trump, new Saudi crown prince share hardline views on Iran but risks abound (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Canada’s Plan for Managing Trump: Go Around Him (<a href="">NYT</a>)</li> <li>Democrats Take Stock: ‘Our Brand Is Worse Than Trump’ (<a href="">NYT</a>)</li> <li>Apple Scraps Like an Underdog in India’s Huge Mobile Market (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Norway's central bank keeps rates on hold, removes easing bias (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Tesla Reaches Pact With Shanghai for China Production (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>South Korea president calls on China's Xi to do more on North Korea nuclear program (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Airbus concedes defeat to Boeing in Paris order race (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Migrants Return to France’s ‘Jungle’ in Calais (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Amid Tumult at Uber, Bill Gurley Is Said to Be Leaving Board (<a href="">NYT</a>)</li> <li>How Uber Investors Engineered the Ousting of Kalanick (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Kalanick’s Ouster Shows Founder Control Doesn’t Mean Job Security&nbsp; (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Philippines says Islamist fighters trapped in corner of besieged town (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Canadian Charged in US Airport Attack Investigated as Terror (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Foxconn in Talks With U.S. States Over New Plant (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Imagination Tech up for sale after bruising Apple fight (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>UK factories have best month for orders since 1988 (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Overnight Media Digest</strong></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">WSJ</span></em></p> <p>- Oracle Corp reported earnings that topped Wall Street's modest forecasts, sending the stock up more than 10 percent in after-hours trading.</p> <p>- Nike Inc has agreed to sell some of its products directly to Inc, a person familiar with the matter said, a concession by the sneaker giant that it can no longer afford to ignore the online retailing behemoth.</p> <p>- Diageo PLC agreed to buy actor George Clooney's upscale tequila brand Casamigos for $700 million, part of a larger push by the spirits giant to increase its exposure to the tequila market.</p> <p>- Sears Canada Inc, which operates more than 200 stores, has hired advisers and is preparing to file for bankruptcy protection in Canada, according to people familiar with the matter.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">FT</span></em></p> <p>Prime Minister Theresa May ditched a series of promises from the Conservative manifesto, illustrating her weakness after the disappointment of this month's election, as she set out a Brexit-focused government programme on Wednesday.</p> <p>The City of London Corporation is buying 68 flats in the Kensington Row development on Kensington High Street to house some of the families made homeless in the deadly fire at London's Grenfell Tower last week.</p> <p>Bank of England's chief economist, Andy Haldane, said on Wednesday that he was likely to vote for an interest rate hike in 2017, putting himself at odds with Mark Carney the day after the governor said "now is not the time" to do so.</p> <p>Phoenix Asset Management said it has acquired a majority stake in Hornby Plc after buying the entire stake of activist investor New Pistoia which succeeded in seeing the removal of Roger Canham as chairman of the loss-making British toymaker.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">NYT</span></em></p> <p>- Travis Kalanick stepped down as chief executive of Uber Technologies Inc, the ride-hailing service that he helped found in 2009 and built into a transportation colossus, after a shareholder revolt made it untenable for him to stay on at the company.</p> <p>- Magazine publisher Wenner Media has agreed to sell its men's lifestyle title to American Media to focus on expanding its remaining brand, Rolling Stone.</p> <p>- An appeals court is set to rule on whether premium, subscriber-based news organizations should have the same protection as a traditional media company.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Canada</span></em></p> <p>THE GLOBE AND MAIL</p> <p>** Struggling Sears Canada Inc plans to file for court protection from its creditors soon with the goal of closing about one-third of its 94 department stores and keeping the rest running, industry sources say. (</p> <p>** Export Development of Canada has committed $72 million in financing for Canadian Solar Inc's participation in Dubai's massive Solar City project. (</p> <p>NATIONAL POST</p> <p>** Berkshire Hathaway Inc said late Wednesday evening it has agreed to indirectly acquire C$400 million of Home Capital Group's common shares on a private placement basis, providing a new C$2 billion line of credit to its subsidiary, Home Trust. (</p> <p>** AIMCo Realty Investors LP, a unit of AIMCo, launched its initial debt offering in Canada, hoping to raise C$400 million. ( </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Britain</span></em></p> <p>The Times</p> <p>* Business groups applauded a more pro-business tone from the government in the Queen's Speech yesterday, but warned that they were still in the dark over future trading arrangements.</p> <p>* Hornby Plc's Roger Canham, fresh from seeing off a challenge to his position, resigned as executive chairman with immediate effect.</p> <p>The Guardian</p> <p>* Just 24 hours after Bank of England governor Mark Carney said the state of the economy and the uncertainty caused by Brexit meant borrowing costs should stay on hold, the bank's chief economist, Andy Haldane said it would be prudent to tighten policy before the end of the year.</p> <p>* Tesco is to close a call centre in Cardiff, putting 1,100 jobs at risk.</p> <p>The Telegraph</p> <p>* Drinks giant Diageo has agreed to pay up to $1 billion to buy George Clooney's tequila company, Casamigos.</p> <p>* The Serious Fraud Office appears to have been granted a reprieve from plans to abolish it in a U-turn that came just a day after the organisation targeted Barclays with the first criminal charges ever brought against a bank over the financial crisis.</p> <p>Sky News</p> <p>* AS Watson Group, which is part of the vast Asian conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings, has tabled an indicative offer for Holland and Barrett, whose owner has kicked off an auction of the business, according to Sky News.</p> <p>* Uber's troubled chief executive, Travis Kalanick, has quit following a revolt by major shareholders.</p> <p>The Independent</p> <p>* Starbucks will hire 2,500 refugees across Europe by 2022 as part of a wider plan that sparked a social media backlash when it was announced in January.</p> <p>* The co-founder of Cobra beer, Karan Bilimoria, has said that he does not think that Britain will end up leaving the EU, once people become aware of the full impact a split will have on business and the economy. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> Aimco Apple Bank of England Bank of England Barclays Berkshire Hathaway Bitly Boeing Borrowing Costs Business Business China Creditors Diageo Donald Trump Economy European Union fed Financial data vendors Iran North Korea Norway's central bank Reuters Reuters Sears Serious Fraud Office Serious Fraud Office The Wall Street Journal Travis Kalanick Uber US Federal Reserve Thu, 22 Jun 2017 11:42:23 +0000 Tyler Durden 598449 at Democrats Raise Paltry $4.3 Million In Worst May Total Since 2003 <p>Embattled Democrats couldn&rsquo;t catch a break on Wednesday: <a href="">not only did the party go 0-5</a> in a series of special elections for the House of Representatives, but the Democratic National Committee disclosed that it raised just $4.3 million last month &ndash; its worst tally for the month of May since 2003, when the DNC raised just $2.7 million.</p> <p><strong>Meanwhile, the party&rsquo;s bundlers plowed money into the special election campaign of Jon Ossoff,</strong> who lost his bid for Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price&rsquo;s old seat in Georgia&rsquo;s 6th Congressional district.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 500px; height: 315px;" /></a></p> <p>Ossoff&rsquo;s defeat echoed the failure of the Clinton campaign:&nbsp; <strong>Ahead of the vote, pollsters and party leaders assured the public that Ossoff&#39;s strong polling in a staunchly red district was emblematic of the public&#39;s dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump. </strong></p> <p>Instead, Republican Karen Handel <strong>carried the day, defeating Ossoff by a comfortable margin of more than 10,000 votes.</strong> The loss was especially demoralizing for Democrats, who&rsquo;d hoped that a victory in a staunchly red district would cement the party&rsquo;s chances of winning a majority in the House during next year&rsquo;s midterm election.</p> <p>Ossoff&rsquo;s defeat appears to have ended the 31-year-old&rsquo;s burgeoning political career before it could truly begin. Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker and former political aide, garnered national attention with his aggressively anti-Trump rhetoric, epitomized by his slogan, <strong>&ldquo;Make Trump Furious.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>Unfortunately for the Democrats, Ossoff&rsquo;s defeat was remarkable for all the wrong reasons. As we reported last night, <a href="">Ossoff spent a staggering $22 million dollars</a>&nbsp; - <a href="">or about $176 per vote </a>- versus only $3 million for Handel. In the past, candidates vying for Georgia&rsquo;s sixth district have typically spent about $1 million.&nbsp; In fact, rather than losing ground since Trump moved into the White House, Republicans actually performed better.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 500px; height: 583px;" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 500px; height: 180px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 500px; height: 98px;" /></a><br />In terms of fundraising, the Republican National Committee fared far better than DNC last month, raising $10.8 million, a record amount for an off year. As one might expect, Democratic leadership refused to take responsibility for Ossoff&rsquo;s crushing defeat, <a href="">as the Hill reports&hellip;</a></p> <p>&ldquo;DNC Chairman Tom Perez defended the party&#39;s fundraising in April, noting that he had just taken over at the helm of the organization. In an NBC interview, Perez was asked about his progress on his goal of doubling the DNC&#39;s budget from $50 million to $100 million in 2017.</p> <p>&quot;Well again, I got there on March 1. And so, I was the first to say, <strong>&#39;We have a lot of rebuilding to do,&#39;&quot;</strong> Perez told NBC&#39;s Hallie Jackson.</p> <p>The decline in fundraising looks like a startling new trend: <strong>The DNC brought in $4.9 million, making it the worst fundraising April for the DNC since 2009.</strong></p> <p>Trump mocked Ossoff during a victory-lap rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa Wednesday evening. <strong>&ldquo;They spent close to $30 million on this kid who forgot to live in the community he was running in,&rdquo; </strong>Trump said.</p> <p>Though Ossoff was allowed to run for the 6th district seat despite his lack of residency, he wasn&rsquo;t able to vote for himself. After Democrats identified the race as a must-win for the party, <strong>out-of-state cash came flooding into Ossoff&rsquo;s campaign coffers, transforming his candidacy into the most expensive race in the history of the House,</strong> <a href="">according to the Hill.</a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="809" height="509" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Business Democratic National Committee Democratic National Committee Democrats Donald Trump Donald Trump House of Representatives Jon Ossoff Karen Handel NBC Politics Republican National Committee United States White House White House Thu, 22 Jun 2017 11:19:31 +0000 Tyler Durden 598447 at Europe Slides For Third Day As Oil Attempts A Rebound; US Futures Flat <p>US equity futures were marginally in the red, while Asian markets rose and European stocks dropped. WTI oil rose 0.6% to $42.79 as some suggest the time to go long has arrived; oil tumbled 2.3% in the previous session. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1 percent. </p> <p> <em>Here are the main market developments while you were sleeping.</em></p> <p>In Asia, the MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan climbed 0.6% but Japan's Nikkei ended a touch lower as a stronger yen and a plunge in the shares of auto air bag-maker Takata Corp took a toll on sentiment. The kiwi jumped after RBNZ kept rates on hold and focused on the positive growth outlook. The yen gained for the third day, its longest winning streak since May, after dovish comments from the Fed's Harker supported Treasury futures. Australian 10-year sovereign yield declines a basis point; ASX 200 stabilizes after two days of losses. the PBOC drained a net 80 billion yuan via open market operations; CNY drops for sixth straight day; the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.3% in a late day selloff after advancing 0.8% earlier, as the MSCI index inclusion is now just a memory. Still, the blue-chip CSI300 index rose to the highest level in 1-1/2 years. Dalian iron ore futures unchanged. Also in China, the onshore yuan falls for a sixth day, <strong>the longest stretch of losses in eight months, </strong>as China's Yield curve steepened following longest-ever period of inversion. CNY edges 0.03% lower to 6.8319 per dollar, poised for sixth straight day of declines, the longest since Oct. 18; </p> <p>In Europe, stock markets fell for a third straight day on Thursday, as a selloff in energy shares continued and miners resumed declines. Energy companies led the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lower by 0.2% as of 6:45am EDT, after crude Wednesday dropped further into a bear market.2 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; insurance is the most active -0.7% on 120% 30-day average volume followed by retail -0.1% on 112% average volume; autos is the least active sector -0.3% on 72% average volume. 196 Stoxx 600 members gain, 388 decline</p> <p>In the US, S&amp;P futures fell 0.1 percent. The cash index fell 0.1% on Wednesday, with Exxon Mobil and Chevron hit hardest in the decline. The Nasdaq 100 Index climbed 1%, continuing its rebound from a two-week selloff. </p> <p>Elsewhere, all eyes remain on oil, where prices tried to stage a modest rebound even as investors' doubts that OPEC-led output cuts would dent a three-year glut offset data showing a drop in U.S. inventories. WTI was a touch higher at $42.79 after sliding 2.3% on Wednesday, touching the lowest price since August. Brent was also higher at around $45.22 but within striking distance of seven-month lows hit on Wednesday. Since peaking in late February, crude has dropped over 20%, with only brief rallies, completely erasing gains at the end of the year in the wake of the initial OPEC-led production cut. OPEC and its allies focused on rising output from Libya and Nigeria, rather than deeper cuts, at a meeting in Vienna. Tropical Storm Cindy makes landfall near Texas-Louisiana border, disrupting energy shipments. OPEC: Talks this week in Vienna between OPEC and non-OPEC producers said to highlight rising Libyan and Nigerian production. There was no serious discussion of making further production cuts, according to delegates; while the option came up briefly, no numbers were mentioned.</p> <p><strong>“After the massive price drops in the last days we are asking ourselves how far this excessive pessimism goes on,” </strong>says Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank. “The market has seemed to ignore positive news in the same way it ignored negative news earlier in the year”&nbsp; and says today’s gains likely result of traders focusing on inventory data and changes in Saudi leadership, both of which he perceives as bullish. </p> <p>“In a longer-term perspective current levels are attractive,” though prices likely to remain under pressure in short-term.</p> <p>"The time for contrarian trades in oil is fast approaching, but I would want to see some stability in price and the technicals start to become more convincing," said Chris Weston, chief market strategist at IG in Melbourne.</p> <p>"As far as the market mentality is concerned, as long as the oil price keeps weakening, this is going to tell us something about the underlying capacity of the global economy to generate inflation on a sustained basis," said Chris Scicluna, head of economic research at Daiwa Capital Markets.</p> <p>In rates, the gap between yields on U.S. five-year notes and 30-year bonds flattened to 95 bps, its narrowest since December 2007. As Gundlach explained on Wednesday, a flattening yield curve is often viewed as a negative economic indicator as it shows concerns about the future pace of growth and inflation, because buyers of long-dated debt would demand higher yields if they expected higher costs. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.15 percent. Yields on European government bonds were broadly lower, with benchmark gilts in the U.K. falling two basis points and those in France and Germany slipping one basis point.</p> <p>In currency markets, the New Zealand dollar gained 0.5 percent to $0.7257 after the central bank held official cash rates at record lows but sounded less dovish than bears in the market had wagered on. The U.S. dollar eased against the Yen, while the dollar index was roughly flat at 97.54, having retreated from a one-month high of 97.871 set on Tuesday. The euro EUR was also flat at $1.1167, after Wednesday's 0.3 percent gain. The weaker dollar lifted spot gold 0.6% to $1,253.20 an ounce</p> <p><strong>Central Banks remained on hold:</strong></p> <p>Norway's Norges Bank kept rates at 0.50% as expected. The Executive Board's current assessment of the outlook and the balance of risks suggests that the key policy rate will remain at today's level in the period ahead," says Governor Oystein Olsen. </p> <p>RBNZ kept the OCR Unchanged at 1.75% as expected and said that policy is to remain accommodative for some time. RBNZ also commented that uncertainties remain and that policies may need to adjust accordingly, although it was upbeat on the economy as it stated that the outlook for domestic economic growth remains positive and that changes announced in the 2017 budget should support growth.</p> <p><strong>Market Snapshot</strong></p> <ul> <li>S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,430.25</li> <li>STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 387.68</li> <li>MXAP up 0.4% to 155.06</li> <li>MXAPJ up 0.4% to 504.07</li> <li>Nikkei down 0.1% to 20,110.51</li> <li>Topix down 0.07% to 1,610.38</li> <li>Hang Seng Index down 0.08% to 25,674.53</li> <li>Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,147.45</li> <li>Sensex up 0.5% to 31,449.47</li> <li>Australia S&amp;P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 5,705.95</li> <li>Kospi up 0.5% to 2,370.37</li> <li>German 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 0.254%</li> <li>Euro down 0.04% to 1.1163 per US$</li> <li>Italian 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.618%</li> <li>Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.5 bps to 1.365%</li> <li>Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,251.87</li> <li>U.S. Dollar Index down 0.03% to 97.53</li> </ul> <p><strong>Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk</strong></p> <ul> <li>EU bourses trade lower, weighed upon by energy prices, particularly Oil, where global supply concerns continue</li> <li>GBP is struggling for direction as traders do not know how to take the latest developments surrounding fresh challenges to Theresa May's approach to EU negotiations.</li> <li>Looking ahead, highlights include US weekly jobs and Fed's Powell</li> </ul> <p><strong>Top Overnight News </strong></p> <ul> <li>Norway’s central bank signaled that it has finished cutting interest rates amid signs the economy weathered the collapse of its oil industry over the past three years</li> <li>New Zealand’s central bank kept interest rates at a record low and indicated it won’t raise them anytime soon</li> <li>The European Central Bank won’t overhaul or substitute Euribor, insisting instead that the financial industry take the lead, according to a euro-area official familiar with the matter</li> <li>Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata says it’s better for the central bank to keep its rough guideline for the pace of increasing its JGB holdings</li> <li>The Conservatives and Democratic Unionist Party are close to a deal to keep U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May in power, senior figures on both sides signaled</li> <li>Yellen’s candidacy for another term is encountering resistance from some Trump administration advisers who want a new leader at the U.S. central bank, according to two administration officials, even as the Treasury secretary indicated she may still be in the running</li> <li>Fed’s Harker says ’prudent’ to pause on the next rate increase</li> <li>Germany’s May tax revenue rises 1.4%, economy in ’solid upturn’: Finance Ministry</li> <li>BOJ’s Iwata says too early to hike rates, risks are skewed to the downside</li> <li>PBOC won’t unwind balance sheet like Fed, adviser says: Securities News</li> <li>RBNZ keeps rates unchanged, policy to remain accommodative for considerable period</li> <li>Global Bank-Capital Talks Falter as Germany Hardens Dissent</li> <li>Boeing Wins $14b Commitment for 125 737 Max 8 Airliners</li> <li>Saudi Gain Is Loss for Qatar Reeling From $13 Billion Slump</li> <li>Bonds Get Junkier, Yields Fall and Funds Don’t Seem to Mind</li> <li>Berkshire Hathaway Invests in Embattled Lender Home Capital</li> <li>Alibaba To Sell Shipment of U.S. Beef in China on Virtual Mall</li> <li>Uber’s Hired Forensics Firm Must Reveal Downloaded Waymo Files</li> <li>Braskem Approves New Plant in Texas With $675m Investment</li> <li>Altice USA IPO Prices 63.9m Shares at $30: IPO Boutique</li> <li>Caterpillar Shares Dragged Down by Oil as Energy Outlook Dims</li> <li>House Armed Services Panel Adopts Measure Backing Key Weapons</li> </ul> <p><strong>In the US, </strong>Republican leaders in the Senate are set to unveil a closely held plan to replace Obamacare today that includes a longer transition period than a House-passed bill, though there's no indication they have enough support for it to pass in a vote that could come as early as next week. US policymakers are set to offer Congress means to ease regulations of banks, according to a testimony released yesterday.</p> <p><strong>In Asia, </strong>stocks were mostly higher after the region gradually shrugged-off an indecisive tone which lingered from Wall Street where energy dragged the majority of indices lower, but the Nasdaq deviated from its peers amid tech strength. This initially saw a lack of unison in the region, although sentiment eventually picked up with ASX 200 (+0.75%) the outperformer amid a rebound in financials and basic materials, while Nikkei 225 (-0.1%) traded choppy with upside capped by a firmer JPY. Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) and Hang Seng (flat) initially conformed to the improved risk-tone despite the PBoC keeping liquidity operations to a minimal, as some reports suggested that liquidity in the banking sector was very high due to recent fiscal expenditure. However, gains were trimmed heading into their respective closes. 10yr JGBs were marginally lower amid an improvement in risk appetite and reduced demand at today's enhanced liquidity auction for longer dated bonds. In addition, the latest weekly securities transactions data also showed foreign investors turned net sellers of Japanese bonds in the prior week.</p> <p><em>Top Asian News</em></p> <ul> <li>CBRC Said to Ask Banks to Provide Details on Wanda, Fosun Loans</li> <li>Tesla Signs Framework Agreement With Shanghai Lingang Govt: 21st</li> <li>Shell in Talks With ONGC to Collaborate on Enhanced Oil Recovery</li> <li>India’s Modi to Discuss Visas With Trump During U.S. Visit</li> <li>China Tower Said to Pick CICC, Goldman Sachs for $10 Billion IPO</li> <li>China’s MSCI Rally Fizzles as Billionaire Rout Highlights Risks</li> <li>India’s Nasscom Sees FY18 Outsourcing Revenue Growth 7-8%</li> <li>Australia’s Biggest Banks Blindsided by Another New Tax Demand</li> </ul> <p><strong>In Europe, </strong>markets trade with subdued behaviour as the quiet week begins to edge to a close, the UK continues to take centre stage, with PM May facing a constitutional crisis after Labour and the Liberal Democrats threatened to use the House of Lords to water down Brexit. EU bourses trade lower, weighed upon by energy prices, particularly Oil, where global supply concerns continue. Reports yesterday stated that three OPEC delegates reject the idea of deeper production cuts, as referenced by Iran OilMin Zanganeh, further one OPEC delegate doesn't think OPEC would agree to deeper cuts unless Iran is included. The comments resulted in Brent to trade through USD 45.00/bbl for the first time this year. Fixed Income markets trade marginally higher, amid the risk tone. It is worth noting that there has been a steady rally in BTPs, with the coupon being the noticeably strengthening paper. Gilts have also been bid, as they slowly recover following Haldane's hawkish comments yesterday, and the Sep'17 future looks to retest 128.60 - 70, the current long-term range high.</p> <p><em>Top European News</em></p> <ul> <li>Nomura Said to Choose Frankfurt as EU Base Following Brexit</li> <li>Europe’s Next Housing Boom Raises Red Flags in Ex- Communist East</li> <li>ECB Says Substantial Stimulus Still Needed: Economic Bulletin</li> <li>Novartis Drug Shows Unlikely Heart Benefit, Blockbuster Promise</li> <li>European Coal Rally Poised to Fizzle Out as Production Rises</li> <li>Norges Bank Abandons All Talk of Easing as Oil Crisis Fades</li> <li>Swiss Watch Exports Jump Most in Four Years on Asia Recovery</li> <li>Imagination Soars as Buyer Interest Spurs Formal Sale Talks</li> </ul> <p><strong>In currencies, </strong>it has been a very quiet morning with all the major currencies holding tight ranges in familiar territory. After the RBNZ, traders have been trying to extend the favourable outlook from the central bank through NZD/USD and AUD/NZD, pushing on key resistance levels at 0.7270 and 1.0380 respectively, but with limited success as yet. There is little reason to reverse these moves in the interim, so the grind higher looks set to continue. GBP is struggling for direction as traders do not know how to take the latest developments surrounding fresh challenges to Theresa May's approach to EU negotiations. On the one hand, we have the prospect of a softer Brexit ahead, but on the other, is tempered by the overall uncertainty factor. Heavy congestion in the mid 1.2600's in Cable, but EUR/GBP is grinding higher again to set up another challenge on the upper 0.8800's. Tight trade in EUFt/USD and USD/JPY is purely reflective on the mixed messages on the US rate path, with the more optimistic/hawkish Yellen and Dudley met with scepticism and more relaxed tone by Messrs Evans, Harker and Kaplan.</p> <p><strong>In commodities,</strong> there is no escaping the rout in Oil price as the concerns over supply have been overrun by US production levels on the rise. Their drive towards self-sufficiency also has implications for the demand side economics, so this combined impact has driving WTI ever closer to the USD40.00 mark which will surely crank up the (attempted) verbal interventions from the major producers led by OPEC. Lows ahead of USD42.00 seen so far, but no sign of a bounce. Elsewhere, base metals are showing some resilience again. Copper has moved up to USD2.60+ levels, but we saw strong resistance at these levels last time around. Zinc is the outperformer on the day and is 2.0% up on the day. Gold has recovered back above USD1250.00, in line with the downturn in the USD.</p> <p><strong>US event calendar</strong></p> <ul> <li>8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 237,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.93m, prior 1.94m</li> <li>9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.6%</li> <li>9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 50; Economic Expectations, prior 49.5</li> <li>10am: Leading Index, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%</li> <li>11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 8.5, prior 8</li> </ul> <p><strong>DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap</strong></p> <p>The main story in markets over the last 24 hours has again been the beating drumof falling Oil prices. Brent (-2.61%) fell below $45/bbl yesterday and joined WTI (-2.25%) in falling into a bear market having slid 21% from its highs of over $56/bbl back in February. WTI is now down 22% from the February highs based on closing prices and a little over 23% based on intraday prices. Oil had actually bounced higher yesterday afternoon and traded up as much as +1.50% but then reversed nearly 5% off its highs to hit its lows for the session in the early evening. Yesterday’s better than expected EIA data failed to provide the helping hand the Oil market needed with the market continuing to question the response, or lack of it, from major producers in providing the cutbacks needed. Indeed Oil is now back to the lowest level since August 10th and a quick refresh of the analysis we did yesterday shows that WTI has only ever traded lower than this on 5% or 168 days since the start 2005 (most of which came in 2008/09 and 2015/16). So as we noted yesterday, these are pretty stressed levels relative to the last twelve and a half years.</p> <p>Anything energy related was hit pretty hard yesterday. EM currencies were big underperformers while the S&amp;P 500 energy sector fell -1.60% and has now declined -3.49% this week. However some support from the tech (Nasdaq +0.74%) and healthcare sectors did help to offset the move for the broader S&amp;P 500 which helped it finish only a smidgen lower (-0.06%) by the closing bell. Europe was softer too (Stoxx 600 -0.18%) although the move in Oil was mostly felt after markets on the continent had closed. Perhaps the most notable standout yesterday was the underperformance for US credit and particularly HY. CDX IG was 1.3bps wider while CDX HY was 12bps wider and is now at the widest level since mid-April. The two big HY ETF’s also had their worst days in three months. Meanwhile US HY energy cash spreads leaked 21bps wider yesterday and are now 46bps wider in the last two days and 82bps wider in June to date. The current spread level of 531bps is also easily the widest this year although the extent of the recent move is worth putting in some context relative to the 2016 sell-off when spreads blew out as wide as 1932bps (from about 650bps prior to the sell-off). It’s worth watching but we are a long way away from the stress levels of just over 12 months ago.</p> <p>The other big story for markets yesterday was the hawkish comments from BoE Chief Economist Andy Haldane. He said that “the risks of tightening too early have shrunk as growth and, to a lesser extent, inflation have shown greater resilience than expected”. In terms of what this means for policy Haldane said that “provided the data are still on track, I do think that beginning the process of withdrawing some of the incremental stimulus provided last August would be prudent into the second half of the year”. Gilt yields spiked higher on the comments with 2y yields in particular darting up over 7bps to finish at 0.193%. 10y yields finished a little under 4bps higher at 1.029% while Sterling was at one stage up as much as +0.96% from its intraday lows before settling up +0.33% at $1.267.</p> <p>Remember that Haldane’s comments follow a slightly more hawkish BoE statement last week and then a much more dovish Carney on Tuesday. Deciphering BoE communication is becoming a bigger challenge&nbsp; and there is little doubt that there is disagreement within the committee. Indeed it’s becoming clearer that one can no longer consider Carney as representing the centre of the committee given all the recent talk. So this is causing a bit of debate about the UK’s policy outlook for the rest of the year and it’s perhaps not ironic that all this comes as the first week of the still very early stage Brexit negotiations get underway with only small snippets of information so far being released with the much more material updates still to come. On that PM May suggested yesterday that Scotland could get a separate vote on Brexit law with officials in talks over whether the Scottish Parliament will be legally required to give consent on the Repeal Bill. This followed a mostly uneventful Queen’s Speech while there was no further update on the Conservatives-DUP talks although the BBC ran a story yesterday suggesting that the DUP is seeking £2bn in health services and infrastructure projects in Northern Ireland as part of a parliamentary deal, suggesting a still tough negotiating stance.</p> <p>Meanwhile over at the Fed there was a bit of focus on comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker in an interview with the FT. Harker argued that it might be prudent to “pause on the next rate increase” while forging ahead on balance sheet reduction. He also said that unwinding the balance sheet could begin in September however “I wouldn’t want to do it if we are starting to see further erosion of inflation and other negative economic data”. Treasuries weren’t hugely moved by the comments with the 10y consolidating around 2.164%. This morning in Asia the lack of any further declines for Oil appears to be helping to support a modest rebound for most equity markets in the region. The Hang Seng (+0.44%), Kospi (+0.29%) and ASX (+0.80%) are all up while in China, having joined the MSCI club, the CSI 300 (+1.04%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.76%) have bounced for the second consecutive day. Markets in Japan are little changed with the Yen strengthening this morning.</p> <p>Wrapping up, in terms of yesterday’s economic data, in the US we learned that existing home sales climbed +1.1% mom in May which was a beat compared to market expectations for a small decline.&nbsp; Meanwhile in the UK a public sector net borrowing requirement of £6bn in May was a little smaller than expected but left the 12-month running deficit essentially unchanged.</p> <p>Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ll be kicking off in France where we are due to receive various June confidence indicators before the UK then releases the latest CBI business survey results for June. In the afternoon we’ll then get the flash consumer confidence reading for the Euro area in June. In the US the data includes initial jobless claims, FHFA house price index, conference board’s leading index and Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity index. Away from the data the Fed’s Powell is scheduled to speak before the Senate Banking Committee at 3pm BST while the BoE’s soon to depart Kristin Forbes also speaks this evening. The other event to keep an eye on today is the start of the two-day EU leaders’ summit in Brussels.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="600" height="375" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> 8.5% Asia-Pacific ASX 200 Bank of England Bank of Japan Bear Market Benchmark Bloomberg Dollar Spot BOE Business Capital Markets Cartels Central Banks China Commodity markets Congress Consumer Confidence Continuing Claims Copper Crude Democratic Unionist Party Economy Equity Markets European Central Bank European Central Bank European government European Union Executive Board Exxon federal government Finance Ministry Finance Ministry BOJ fixed flash France Futures contract Germany Gilts Global Economy Gold Spot goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Gundlach Hang Seng 40 House of Lords Initial Jobless Claims Iran Ireland Japan Jim Reid Kansas City Fed Liberal Democrats Market economics) MSCI World NASDAQ Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ 100 New Zealand New Zealand’s central bank Nikkei Nikkei 225 Norges Bank Norges Bank Norway’s Central Bank Obamacare OCR OPEC OPEC Open Market Operations Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries People's Bank of China Petroleum Petroleum industry Petroleum politics Philadelphia Fed Price of oil Primary sector of the economy Renminbi S&P 500 S&P 500 Energy S&P/ASX 200 Scottish parliament Senate Senate Banking Committee SSE 50 Stoxx 600 Tax Revenue Testimony the U.S. central bank Trump Administration UK Government Yen Yield Curve Yield curve Yuan Thu, 22 Jun 2017 11:05:16 +0000 Tyler Durden 598448 at If BlackRock And Pimco Are Right, "Another Fed Shock Looms" <p>Discussing the market's ongoing reaction to the schizophrenic split between the hawkish Fed and a market which now sees a 50% lower terminal Fed Funds rate than the FOMC, yesterday <a href="">Jeff Gundlach said</a> that the flattening yield curve could become a concern for US economic growth when two and three-year notes yield about the same.</p> <p><img src="" style="width: 500px; height: 249px;" /></p> <p>"Lower CPI in the next couple of months will be a cold bucket of water for the Fed tightening dreams," Gundlach said. "Commodities are super weak, with the dollar down year-to-date, no less."</p> <p><img src="" style="width: 500px; height: 357px;" /></p> <p>In not so many words, an error is forming: either "<strong>policy error</strong>" by the Fed, or one by the market, which will be forced to reconcile its dovish stance, potentially in violent fashion, with the Fed's relentless "<strong>data independence</strong>."</p> <p>It was this issue that was the topic of a note by Bloomberg's macro commentator Garfield Reynolds, who noted in his overnight Macro View note, that in addition to the Gundlach "quandary", if recent commentary by BlackRock and Pimco is right, then "another Fed shock looms."</p> <p><em>His full note below:</em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Another Fed Shock Looms If BlackRock, Pimco Right: Macro View</strong></span><strong> </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Once bitten, twice eager sounds like a contradiction but it can often seem like standard operating procedure in global markets - <strong>just look at the money piling into bets that the Federal Reserve is going nowhere soon with monetary tightening</strong>. It’s as if the February shock - when a deluge of Fedspeak made traders realize their bets against a March hike were wrong - never happened.&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Even after Fed Chair Janet Yellen made it clear she anticipates further rate increases, the “policy error” narrative is going full bore. </strong>Eurodollar options and fed funds futures signal no more moves for at least three months and no more than one more this year.&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Inflation is stubbornly low. Continuing sluggishness in U.S. data (surprise indexes are at about full disappointment settings) could stay the Fed’s hand, especially if employment joins the pity party.&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But BlackRock and Pimco, who between them manage more than $6.5 trillion, indicated separately this week <strong>that weaker data may not necessarily be the end-all and be-all for the rate outlook.&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Fed officials have noted their mandate goes beyond just looking at the current pace of inflation. That means the “<strong>excessive obsession some market watchers have with the Fed hewing to its 2% inflation target is shortsighted</strong>,” according to Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s global chief investment officer of fixed-income.&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Pimco’s Joachim Fels says Yellen may be willing to accept lower inflation as she continues with the Fed’s policy path <strong>because for one thing it would then give greater scope for policy action down the road, and it could enhance financial stability amid concerns of rates being too low</strong>. And he cites interesting theories about higher nominal rates leading to higher longer-term inflation.&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The complacency in the bond market <strong>(10-year yields are heading for their narrowest monthly range since 2004</strong>!) and elsewhere seems especially brave considering how recently the market completely failed to read the Fed.</p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, there is <a href="">another explanation</a>, one offered by BofA earlier this week which suggested that the decoupling between the Fed's tightening intentions and the underlying economy has little to do with the data, and everything to do with the market bursting the stock market bubble. As BofA's chief strategist David Woo said, "<strong>Can it be the case that its hawkishness was prompted by something other than its reading of the economy? For example, is it possible that the Fed has become concerned about the recent surge in the equity market, especially tech stocks that has been feeding off low interest rates and low volatility</strong>?" If so, a "market shock" is indeed inevitable, the question is when. &nbsp;</p> <p>Then again, the market may be doubly-right: if Yellen does indeed "shock" the market, sending yields surging and risk assets tumbling, then a recession is virtually assured. As such, bond bulls are predicting not only its own near-term demise, but their long-term vindication after the shake out that will follow the "post shock" period. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="135" height="90" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Banking Blackrock Bond Business CPI Economy EuroDollar Federal funds rate Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve Federal Reserve System Finance Financial economics Gundlach Inflation targeting Janet Yellen Janet Yellen Jeff Gundlach Monetary policy Money PIMCO Recession Rick Rieder US Federal Reserve Volatility Yield Curve Yield curve Thu, 22 Jun 2017 10:24:31 +0000 Tyler Durden 598446 at Buffett Stuns Market After Berkshire Acquires 38.4% Of Home Capital Group, Provides C$2 Billion Loan <p>In a stunning development involving Canada's largest alternative lender which as recently as a month ago was facing virtually certain insolvency after a furious depositor run drained it of liquidity, <a href="">overnight Home Capital Group announced that </a>billionaire Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway will indirectly acquire C$400 million ($300 million) of the firm’s shares in a private placement through its Columbia Insurance unit, for about a 38.4% stake, and will aso provide a new C$2 billion ($1.50 billion) line of credit to its unit Home Trust Co, ending the Canadian lender's strategic review process. </p> <p>"<strong>Home Capital's strong assets, its ability to originate and underwrite well-performing mortgages, and its leading position in a growing market sector make this a very attractive investment</strong>," said Warren Buffett, Berkshire chairman and CEO, failing to comment on the lender's numerous regulatory problems.</p> <p>Aside from the rescue loan, Berkshire will make an initial investment of C$153.2 million to buy 16 million common shares and an additional investment of C$246.8 million to purchase 24 million shares through a private placement.&nbsp; In total, Berkshire will hold an about 38.39% equity stake in Home Capital after buying 40 million shares at an average price of about C$10.00 per common share, a 33% discount compared with yesterday’s closing price of C$14.94.</p> <p>"Berkshire's investment is a strong vote of confidence,” in the long-term value of the business, Brenda Eprile, Home Capital’s chairwoman. Canada's biggest non-bank lender also said it will continue to explore further asset sales and financing deals over the next year, but has concluded its strategic review process that began in April.</p> <p>Many market watchers were stunned by this news, <strong>and were scratching their heads at why Berkshire would take the reputation risk of having exposure to a company which as recently as a month ago was in the regulator's crosshairs for peddling "liar loans." </strong>As a reminder, last week, Home Capital reached a C$30.5 million settlement with the Ontario Securities Commission, settled a class action lawsuit and <strong>accepted responsibility for misleading investors about problems with its mortgage underwriting procedures</strong>.</p> <p>Once upon a time, Buffett would run from companies such as this; now he is actively drawn to them. </p> <p>In any case, the move will likely assure an interim turnaround in the 30-year-old lender after a regulator in April <strong>accused it of misleading shareholders on mortgage fraud, which sent its shares tumbling, sparked withdrawals and threatened to disrupt Canada’s real estate sector. </strong>Earlier this week, Home Capital agreed to sell a clutch of commercial mortgages to affiliates of KingSett Capital Inc. for C$1.16 billion in cash.</p> <p>"This investment from Berkshire not only addresses Home Capital's near-term requirements for additional liquidity and a lower-cost credit agreement, but also facilitates what the Board feels is the best available path to long-term success," Home Capital's Chair Brenda Eprile said.</p> <p>According to <a href="">Bloomberg</a>, the deal replaces an existing emergency credit facility on better terms, Home Capital said. The share purchase will be done in two parts: an initial investment of C$153 million for about a 20 percent equity stake, then an additional investment of C$247 million taking the stake to about 38 percent. The second phase requires extra approvals. Berkshire will not be granted any rights to nominate directors and has agreed to only vote shares representing 25 percent of the company’s stock, Home Capital said.</p> <p>Home Capital shares have more than doubled since bottoming in April when its troubles began to accelerate but remain about 73 percent down from their peak in 2014. The company last week took full responsibility over allegations the lender misled shareholders about mortgage fraud and agreed with three former executives to pay more than C$30 million to reach settlements with regulators and investors. </p> <p>So why is the octogenarian taking on the credibility risk through this particular investment? For the same reason as explained two months ago in "<a href="">Warren Buffett Now Selling US Houses To Chinese Oligarchs</a>" - Berkshire is seeking offshore housing markets, and after seeking access to the "desirable" Chinese homebuyer universe&nbsp; with its HomeServices unit, it now is hoping to access Canada. </p> <p>He may find a cool reception: Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is wading into a tense Canadian housing market, with Toronto house prices cooling after being hit with a 15 percent tax on foreign buyers and tighter mortgage regulations, and confidence shake by the Home Capital drama. Meanwhile, prices are surging in Vancouver again after being sideswiped by similar policy moves.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="620" height="349" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire Hathaway Business Economy Finance Home Capital Group Housing Market Money Mortgage loan Ontario Securities Commission Real estate Subprime crisis impact timeline Warren Buffett Warren Buffett Thu, 22 Jun 2017 09:56:27 +0000 Tyler Durden 598445 at Ethereum Flash Crashes By 96% After Status ICO Clogs Network <p>While Bitcoin, and recent Chinese and Korean momentum favorite, <a href="">Litecoin</a>, have been relatively stable for much of the day, Ethereum suffered dramatic losses on Wednesday, sliding from $360 to $260 before rebounding, in the process experiencing what may have been its first flash crash, when it plunged by 96% from $315 to $13 on massive volume, before rebounding.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="236" /></a></p> <p>The crash appears to have been catalyzed by seller submitting a market order to dump roughly $30 million worth of ETH (96.1k) in one go, which obliterated the order book.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="517" /></a></p> <p>As tends to happen without fail during volatile crypto-periods, the crash almost immediately took the Coinbase offline.</p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="299" /></p> <p>Over the past 24 hours, there were several warnings about "unstable operation" in the Ethereum Network, such as this one from the BTC-E exchange.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Due to the unstable operation of the Ethereum network due to the network load, the ETH withdrawals is temporarily unavailable <a href="">#btce</a></p> <p>— BTC-E (@btcecom) <a href="">June 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>What catalyzed today's crash?</p> <p>According to one explanation <a href="">posted on the Ethereum reddit</a>, the reason was an ICO, or initial coin offering, gone very wrong. As user emansipater explained around noon, or shortly before the selling onslaught began, the catalyst for the selling was the "badly designed" Status ICO. Here are the detail:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>I assume that (unlike all the price discussion here which is totally offtopic) you are referring to the transaction issues which have led several exchanges to pause ETH withdrawals. Here is what happened:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The <a href="">badly designed</a> Status ICO clogged up the network yesterday with a huge number of high gas fee transactions, most of which are failing but still filling up the blocks and preventing normal tx's from getting in.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In addition, dwarfpool and perhaps others have set bad defaults on their client software that <a href="">both actually cost themselves money</a> and also prevent the network from automatically adapting to larger gas volumes the way it's supposed to.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Furthermore, evidence is accumulating that f2pool was actively manipulating transactions bound for the Status ICO, which they participated in themselves, exacerbating the problem. Experts explained <a href="">weeks ago</a> that bad ICO designs are vulnerable to such attacks, but this appears to be the first time it was actually executed in the wild.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So now, even though the Status ICO is over, there are still a huge number of transactions clogging up the network and the only way to get transactions in is to pay huge fees (which most of the exchanges probably don't want to do). Until it clears out, people are going to be missing ENS auctions, unable to withdraw from many wallets and exchanges, etc. etc. etc.</p> </blockquote> <p>Or, as he summarized "<strong>badly designed ICOs, plus selfish and foolish miners = major delays and maybe even <a href="">substantial losses</a> for everyone else</strong>." Judging by the ensuing flash crash, this was an accurate assessment.</p> <p>The good news for ETH fans is that once the backlog of transactions clears up, the crypto should resume its previous ways.</p> <p>Finally, here is a vivid example why one should never use stop sell orders in fragmented and unstable markets, <a href="">from another reddit user</a>.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>GDAX just sold a good chunk of my ether at 10 cents each!</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So I had a stop order at 316, when GDAX went down (for whatever reason) all my ether was sold at the highest (at the time) price available. <strong>When I logged in I saw a small USD amount, I though it was a hiccup. Checked the fills and indeed it was sold at 10 cents</strong>. There is no way this will be reversed right? If that's the case I believe I will be leaving the crypto market at least until it stabilizes.</p> <p>Just lost 3k in the blink of an eye.</p> </blockquote> <p>And another similar, if unconfirmed report:</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="55" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="830" height="392" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Alternative currencies Bitcoin Bitcoin Coinbase Computing Cross-platform software Cryptocurrencies Currency E-commerce ETC Ethereum Ethereum Classic Fail Fiction flash Ico Initial Coin Offering Litecoin Reddit Software Thu, 22 Jun 2017 09:27:59 +0000 Tyler Durden 598431 at Trump Floats Plans To Install Solar Panels On Mexico Border Wall, Uninstall Welfare For New Immigrants <p style="margin: 0.25em 0px 0.75em; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: 1.3; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;">Content originally published at&nbsp;</span><a href="" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; text-transform: none; line-height: 1.2; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;"></a></p> <p>President Trump drew applause at a Wednesday rally in Cedar Rapids, Ohio,&nbsp;when he publicly revealed&nbsp;plans to attach <strong>solar panels</strong> to&nbsp;his controversial southern border wall project.&nbsp; Trump had previously&nbsp;pitched the solar wall&nbsp;to congressional republicans in a June 6 meeting.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>We're thinking about building the wall as a solar wall, so it creates energy and pays for itself. -<em>Donald J. Trump</em></p> </blockquote> <p>While discussing the merits of the project, Trump mused:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Think of it - <strong>the higher it goes, the more valuable it is!</strong></p> </blockquote> <div class="wpview wpview-wrap"><iframe src="" width="618" height="348" frameborder="0"></iframe><span class="mce-shim">&nbsp;</span><span class="wpview-end">&nbsp;</span></div> <p><strong>The wall&nbsp;</strong>- a&nbsp;core&nbsp;promise&nbsp;made&nbsp;by Trump&nbsp;throughout&nbsp;the 2016 presidential campaign, is intended to stem the flow of drugs and illegal immigration into the United States. Candidate Trump repeatedly claimed that Mexico would pay for the wall, however when it came time to discuss details after the election, Mexican leaders <a href="" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">pushed back</span></span></a> fiercely. In response, Trump suggested that the United States would pay for the wall upfront and find ways of extracting payment from Mexico later.</p> <p>Trump pointed out that by attaching solar panels to the wall, "Mexico will have to pay much less money - and that's good, right?"</p> <p><strong>Marketing&nbsp;to Liberals 101-&nbsp;</strong>In what's sure to keep&nbsp;left leaning fact checkers snarking away into the night,&nbsp;President Trump claimed&nbsp;the solar panels were his idea - a statement that's&nbsp;pure bait for petty pundits like&nbsp;Rachel Maddow,&nbsp;who will inform her dwindling audience that plans for solar&nbsp;have <a href="" target="_blank"><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">ackchually</span></span></em></a><em> been</em> included in several&nbsp;designs submitted to the <a href=";mode=form&amp;tab=core&amp;id=f61a85538f383ec3ed9cac3c9e21d6f1&amp;_cview=0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span style="color: #0066cc;">Department of Homeland Security </span></span></a>by over 200 companies since the project was announced.&nbsp;Once Maddow fans smugly scoff at&nbsp;the incorrect statement,&nbsp;the fact that Trump is building a green, earth-friendly&nbsp;<em>solar</em> wall be the message which reaches liberal hearts and minds - especially in swing states&nbsp;- counteracting some of the outrage over the 'injustice' of forcing illegal&nbsp;immigrants to get in line before legally&nbsp;residing in&nbsp;the United States.</p> <p><strong>To that end - </strong>during the rally,&nbsp;Trump said he&nbsp;favored legislation which would block welfare benefits for new immigrants for at least five years.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“The time has come for new immigration rules which say that <strong>those seeking admission into our country must be able to support themselves financially</strong>, and should not use welfare for a period of at least five years”</p> </blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Trump on 5 Year welfare ban for Immigrants: "Those seeking admission must be able to support themselves financially" <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— ZeroPointNow (@ZeroPointNow) <a href="">June 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <p>Green energy and&nbsp;sustainable, legal&nbsp;immigrants... what a&nbsp;concept. &nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span class="wpview-end" style="margin: 0px; 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font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><a href="" target="_blank" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">YouTube channel</a></strong></p> <script src="//"></script> American people of German descent Climate change skepticism and denial Department of Homeland Security Donald Trump Draft:Hector Sarmiento Environment Legal affairs of Donald Trump Mexico Ohio Politics of the United States Social Issues The Apprentice Twitter Twitter United States WWE Hall of Fame Thu, 22 Jun 2017 09:20:50 +0000 ZeroPointNow 598444 at Nauseating Stupidity On Confiscating Homes For The Greater Good <p><a href=""><em>Authored by Mike Shedlock via,</em></a></p> <p>When it comes to anti-war pieces and matters of the US government overstepping its bounds in matters of privacy and security, <strong><em>The Intercept</em> is usually spot on.</strong></p> <p>On matters of social justice, <strong><em>The Intercept</em> puts out some nauseating trash.</strong></p> <p><em>Intercept</em> writer Zaid Jilani provides a perfect example with <a href="" rel="noopener" target="_blank"><strong>JEREMY CORBYN WANTS TO REQUISITION HOMES OF THE RICH FOR FIRE SURVIVORS</strong> &mdash; LIKE CHURCHILL DID IN WWII</a>.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>BRITISH LABOUR PARTY leader Jeremy Corbyn has a <a href="" rel="noopener" target="_blank">bold proposal</a> to house the survivors of a devastating fire at London&rsquo;s Grenfell Tower apartment complex in empty luxury homes.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>YouGov polling found that Corbyn&rsquo;s idea is popular among the British public, with 59 percent supporting it. Yet there has been a harsh backlash from the U.K.&rsquo;s right-wing government and press, which equated his plan with a Marxist plot. &ldquo;Suggesting requisitioning empty properties when empty student accommodation is available locally is completely in line with his Marxist belief that all private property should belong to the state,&rdquo; Conservative MP Andrew Bridgen said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img height="356" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But Corbyn&rsquo;s plan has historical roots not in Marxist literature or state-run economies, but in his country&rsquo;s own past.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>To help bear the brunt of the Nazi war machine, the British government requisitioned both industrial and residential properties to accommodate soldiers and evacuees, run makeshift schools and hospitals, and train the military, among other uses.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>All Corbyn is asking is that the the United Kingdom show the same compassion and patriotism as its forefathers.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Compassion My Ass</strong></span></p> <p>Even if one believes that confiscation of property is acceptable in wartime <em>(try telling that to the Jews or US&nbsp;citizens of Japanese descent), </em>does that make it OK now?</p> <p><strong>Confiscation of private property &ldquo;for the greater good&rdquo; is an even bigger government intrusion than spying on people.</strong></p> <p><em><strong>Jilani&rsquo;s article is so idiotic, it should be his last, anywhere.</strong></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="756" height="336" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Activism British government British Labour party British people Corbyn Democratic socialists Jeremy Corbyn Politics Politics United Kingdom US government Thu, 22 Jun 2017 09:00:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 598420 at McKinsey: Banks Will Have To Slash 30% Of Analyst Jobs To Comply With New Research Rules <p>As the global equity research market continues to wrestle with how they will comply with the European Union's MiFID II regulations, McKinsey &amp; Co. has just penned a new study effectively saying they'll <strong>have no choice but to fire a ton of equity research analysts who write a bunch of stuff that no one ever reads</strong>...which seems like a reasonable guess.&nbsp; Per <a href="">Bloomberg</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Europe’s impending ban on free research will <strong>cost hundreds of analysts their jobs with banks set to cut about $1.2 billion of investment on the area</strong>, according to a report by McKinsey &amp; Co.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The consultancy estimates the $4 billion that the top-10 sell-side banks currently spend on research annually is <strong>likely to fall by 30 percent as clients become pickier about what they pay for</strong>, McKinsey Partner Roger Rudisuli said in an interview. Investment banks’ cash equity research headcount has fallen 12 percent to 3,900 since 2011 compared with as much as 40 percent in sales and trading, leaving the area facing “big cuts” to catch up, he said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Two to three global banking players will preserve their status in the new era, winning the execution arms race and dominating trading in equities around the globe,” McKinsey said in a report Wednesday, which Rudisuli helped write. <strong>“Over the coming five years, banks will need to make hard choices and play to their strengths. Not only will the top ranks be thinned out, there will be shakeouts in regional markets.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>For those who have managed to avoid this particular distraction, the global equity research industry is in the midst of a major disruption which has been brought on by the European Union’s MiFID II regulations, enforced from Jan. 3, which aim to tackle conflicts of interest by requiring asset managers to separate the trading commissions they pay from investment-research fees.</p> <p><img src="" alt="ER" width="600" height="326" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, the biggest problem with such a regulation continues to be that literally no one knows the true 'value' of equity research, not even the investment banks that are selling it.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>Firms are also debating how to price analyst reports,</strong> with some firms modeling packages on cable TV subscriptions, running from basic to “all-in” offers, according to the report. Deutsche Bank AG has pitched clients a metered, “pay as you go” approach whereas <strong>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. has quoted customers a $50,000 flat fee for basis access to fixed-income analysis</strong>, people familiar with the matter have said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“Banks are scrambling to get these pricing infrastructures in place,</strong> as well as how they do tracking and invoicing,” Rudisuli said. “They are all rushing to the finish line to be ready in January.”</p> </blockquote> <p>And perhaps that has something to do with the fact that, as we've said before, institutional clients couldn't care less about the 300 research reports they receive daily (all of which can be boiled down to one simple thesis: Buy The Fucking Dip), but rather only about gaining access to corporate management teams so they can get "color" on upcoming earnings reports.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Another change Rudisuli foresees for the industry is the<strong> start of bidding wars for the most valuable commodity banks can offer investors: time with corporate leaders and their star analysts.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Banks will experiment at first, but over time we could see things like auctions could take a more prominent role; at the end of the day there are only five seats in these meetings,” he said. “The challenge there will be that the people willing to pay the most will be hedge funds, but the preference for corporates will be to meet with only long-only investors.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, as we've said before, almost any amount of money seems, at least to us, to be too much to have the same people give you the same advice over and over again, namely "buy more stocks, faster."&nbsp; There, we just summarized 90% of all equity research that will ever be written for the rest of history in 4 simple words and completely free of charge.&nbsp; You're welcome.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="649" height="386" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Business Cable TV Deutsche Bank Economy European Union Finance Financial analyst Financial markets Financial services Investment banking Investment banks JPMorgan Chase McKinsey McKinsey & Company Money Primary dealers Securities research Systemic risk Thu, 22 Jun 2017 08:15:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 598400 at Why The EU's Policy Towards The Syrian Conflict Is A Disaster? <p><a href=""><em>Via,</em></a></p> <p><em><strong>The European Union has to understand finally that idealism is simply magnifying human suffering and endangering the security of all parties. There is the realist alternative, which focuses on one&rsquo;s own interest instead of morality. However, such foreign policy has a highly ethical purpose, i.e. peace and stability. The EU member states have made many mistakes during Syria&rsquo;s civil war, which decreased their prestige, influence and security. Through the realist lens it&rsquo;s important to make a serious assessment, which side in the conflict should be supported, and to remember that the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.</strong></em></p> <p>The realists don&rsquo;t refrain from bold proposals and suggestions when it comes to foreign policy. In 2012 Kenneth Waltz argued that Iran should have access to nuclear weapons. <strong>Three years later Stephen Walt pointed that in case of ISIS&rsquo;s victory in Syria, the international community should learn how to live with it&rsquo;s potential new member.</strong><sup class="footnote_plugin_tooltip_text" id="footnote_plugin_tooltip_2">2)</sup>Right now there are voices among realists, according to which the attempts to overthrow the al-Assad government were a mistake.<sup> </sup>Those examples result from a distinctive view of morality&rsquo;s place in international relations.</p> <p><strong>According to realists, no country can be certain about other states&rsquo; intentions. </strong>That&rsquo;s why security may be guaranteed by maximization of one&rsquo;s power, so potential enemies are effectively deterred. States&rsquo; leaders should focus mainly on national interests. Realists assume that morality results in unnecessary suffering and endangers state&rsquo;s importance in international relations. This is the reason why such analysts criticize humanitarian intervention, which jeopardizes the most important element of the state&rsquo;s power, i.e. its citizens, and may cause a long-term involvement in affairs of a country that has no direct strategic meaning. Realists opposed the intervention in Libya in 2011, which was considered needless and conducted in an inept way. They were also against the intervention in Vietnam, which they viewed as doomed to fail, and the war in Iraq in 2003, which was perceived as destabilizing the whole region (and it turned out it was a correct assessment!).</p> <p><strong>Realism focuses on cold-hearted calculation.</strong> However, <strong>such foreign policy isn&rsquo;t immoral</strong>. The competition for power and the balance that is its effect are the means to a highly ethical end, i.e. peace. It&rsquo;s this mechanism that made the bipolar system so stable, made the sense of security for both parties and prevented the world from another global war.</p> <p>Having in mind the mentioned issues,<strong> the question arises how the EU member states should act towards the Syrian crisis.</strong> It&rsquo;s argued they ought to abandon their current foreign policy based on human rights ideology and altruism, and focus on their own security and ability to influence the future of the region. What&rsquo;s the most important, in the case of Syria the radical solutions are the only and the best ones.</p> <p>The prominent international relations scholar and the creator of modern realist school of thought &ndash; Hans Morgenthau &ndash; has written a few decades ago why the invasion in the Bay of Pigs had to fail. In the decision-making process both interest and the rule of non-intervention based on moral assumptions were taken into account. This resulted in a limited scope of intervention as the US feared the loss of prestige. The defeat was an effect of a policy that manoeuvred between security and ideas. In the end the goal wasn&rsquo;t accomplished and the American prestige suffered.<sup> </sup><strong>The Syrian case is somehow similar and that&rsquo;s why the EU&rsquo;s actions are bound to be inefficient.</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img height="510" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p><strong>Leaders of the EU member states assume that al-Assad isn&rsquo;t and can&rsquo;t be a partner in negotiations as he should be held responsible for his crimes and his regime should be overthrown.<sup> </sup></strong>At the same time the West&rsquo;s intervention, conducted mainly by the U.S., France and Great Britain, is still limited in its scope. Attacks on al-Assad&rsquo;s forces aren&rsquo;t handicapping his capabilities and simply protract the stalemate.<sup> </sup>The rebels are armed by the West, but not in the way that they can gain a strategic advantage.&nbsp; As a result the conflict is prolonged, the Syrian people&rsquo;s suffering is increasing and the refugee and migration crisis is escalating. Except that no-one should be surprised that the Syrian president decided to fight until the end as the West stated blatantly he has to go.<sup> </sup></p> <p><u><strong>What would a realist suggest?</strong></u> There are two radical options. One is the military intervention, which will change the balance of power in the war theatre and will result in overthrowing the government. However, such a scenario would result in a deep crisis between the West and Russia. What&rsquo;s more, the West would have to count on Moscow&rsquo;s withdrawal. At the same time the transformation would have to be conducted and if it was to succeed, there would be a necessity to create a new stable administration, i.e. a new satellite regime managed by the West. This, however, would require a long-term involvement in the reconstruction of the Syrian state. It is both risky and expensive.</p> <p><strong>The second possibility is to assume that al-Assad will win the war.</strong> It means that Europe may support him or at least withdraw from operations in Syria, so that other powers may have an influence on the country&rsquo;s future. The first option is unthinkable for the West because of prestige and ideological factors. The other seems reasonable, though it won&rsquo;t ensure stability as fast as Europe would expect.</p> <p><strong>EU member states have to acknowledge the fact that at the moment it doesn&rsquo;t matter who will rule in Syria. For the EU the consolidation of power is important as it may contain the migration crisis.</strong> The opponents of al-Assad will surely point to the fact that his survival will relate to further incidents of political purges. But do we really believe that the internally divided opposition, which consists of democratic forces, government runaways and jihadist militias, won&rsquo;t fight for the domination after al-Assad&rsquo;s fall and won&rsquo;t be responsible for other atrocities? We&rsquo;ve been there before. In Libya, the West supported the rebel groups that had been fighting between each other for six years already since al-Kaddafi was murdered.</p> <p><strong>Policy-makers who base their diplomacy on moral issues, may argue that al-Assad&rsquo;s staying in power is simply unethical. Yet, the bringing down the authoritarian governments in Baghdad and Tripoli resulted in a political vacuum, the destabilization of the region and suffering of the whole societies. </strong>At the same time the interventions weren&rsquo;t conducted where it would be quite cheap and could actually protect human rights, for instance in Rwanda. Especially when you consider the fact that the West, and France in the first place, probably knew about the planned carnage and there are even reports it supported Hutu organisations.</p> <p>For many the most important problem is the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian president. However, as Stephen Walt argued excellently, such crime attracts more attention. Those heinous acts result in our moral considerations about intervening. However, such dilemmas don&rsquo;t occur in politicians&rsquo; minds when the bombing of civilians takes place.</p> <p><strong>Except for the aforementioned matters, we have to remember that pre-war Syria was in the Russian sphere of influence.</strong> Bashar al-Assad was perceived by the West as an enemy not because he violated human rights, but because he was Moscow&rsquo;s and Tehran&rsquo;s ally and because of his anti-Israel attitude, which was against the U.S.-Israel alliance. However, when the favourable circumstances emerged, France during the presidency of right-wing Sarkozy tried to end with al-Assad&rsquo;s isolation and the French president stated that the Syrian leader was irreplaceable in the process of conflict-resolution in the Middle East.<sup> </sup>The U.S. under the democratic rule also considered the Syrian government as a potential partner in the period before the Arab spring. For example, the then senator and later secretary of state John Kerry stressed that America and Syria have common interests and al-Assad&rsquo;s government is an essential player in the Middle East.<sup> </sup>When the revolution started, the West was thinking possibly that the chance to get rid of the inconvenient actor is at hand. <strong>Yet, the intervention on the side of the opposition is nothing more than meddling in another dominant power&rsquo;s sphere of influence. What&rsquo;s more, such involvement isn&rsquo;t motivated by any crucial interest. A realist remembers that balance of power, which is related to assuring stability in one&rsquo;s own sphere, allows to keep the international order and peace.</strong> The West shouldn&rsquo;t hinder Russia&rsquo;s operations aiming at restoring status quo ante and ensuring security.</p> <p>The EU member states, which support the rebels, seem to not understand not only Russia&rsquo;s role in the conflict but also Turkish interests. Ankara was repeatedly accused of backing up ISIS. If it was true, it would be possibly nothing more that cold-hearted calculation, i.e. the desire to create a dependent state or at least a state that would be a partner. The Turkish administration quickly realised that the balance of capabilities in Syria suggests that al-Assad is the strongest party. That&rsquo;s why it wasn&rsquo;t problematic for Turks to talk about Syria&rsquo;s future with President Putin. Especially considering the fact that Syrian government&rsquo;s preservation would be useful in maintaining Turkish territorial integrity and the smashing Kurdish rebellion.</p> <p>How did the Western Europe act in the meantime? In 2016 the deal related to migration control was signed and it was expected that Turkey would provide shelter for Syrian refugees. At the same time France is reconfirming support for Kurdish demands<sup> </sup>as it has during last couple of years, which is a direct blow against Turkish interests. Germany is doing just the same as it decided to cooperate with PYD and YPG.<sup><strong> </strong></sup><strong>When the West is aiding opposition forces, it&rsquo;s protracting war at the Turkish gates and it&rsquo;s threatening Ankara&rsquo;s sense of security. Did we really anticipate that under such conditions Erdo?an will keep his promises? A realist wouldn&rsquo;t be surprised by such a policy of the Turkish government, which is focused mainly (as every other administration!) on security and survival.</strong></p> <p>EU member states intervene hesitantly and follow the human rights ideology. It results in resigning from the place at the negotiating table, which is an act against Turkey&rsquo;s and Russia&rsquo;s interests of, the countries that seem to be ready to work together on the shape of post-war Syria. <strong>Therefore, EU is losing prestige, signalling to other powers that it is weak and is unable to protect its interests.</strong> Hans Morgenthau noticed correctly that states may gain if they end wars that are doomed to fail.</p> <p>In one of his books John J. Mearsheimer pointed out that the democratic states use the liberal lie, i.e. they refer to the Western values, to intervene in other countries when the need to secure interests appears. It seems that in the case of Syria, the EU isn&rsquo;t pursuing its interests and is driven by moral principles. As a result, it is suffering from loss of prestige and is endangering its own security. The Finnish president stated in 2016 properly that EU has a dilemma: should it protect its people and values or should it meet its international obligations.<strong> A realist has no second thoughts that every state should focus on guaranteeing its own survival and should concentrate on keeping citizens safe.</strong></p> <p>The presented reasoning doesn&rsquo;t imply that the al-Assad government should be treated as a partner after the war ends. Yet, for Europe it is important to attain one goal after another. Firstly, we need to end the civil war and migration crisis, no matter what the cost. After that we may try to influence the government in Damascus, so that there is a power transition or power transition.</p> <p><strong>The al-Assad&rsquo;s survival is crucial for the region as Syria was an important element of the balance of power and at the same time it helped to keep the peace.</strong> Europe is proceeding with a disastrous policy, which protracts the conflict.<strong> Thucydides wrote in &ldquo;The History of the Peloponnesian War&rdquo; that the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.</strong> Europe should show its full power by conducting government change or negotiating with other powers if the first proposal is impossible. The policy of indecisiveness is nothing more than a sign of EU&rsquo;s weakness and a suggestion to other players that they can test its patience constantly. The West should face the fact that, as John J. Mearsheimer stated, its social engineering aiming at overthrowing the governments failed and it would be better for everyone if it simply withdrew.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1215" height="751" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> al-Assad Al-Assad family al-Assad government al-Assad’s government Asia Assad family Bashar al-Assad European Union European Union Fail France Germany Hafez al-Assad International reactions to the Syrian Civil War Iran Iraq Middle East Middle East Politics Politics of Syria Syria Syrian Civil War Syrian government Turkey Turkish administration Turkish government western Europe Thu, 22 Jun 2017 07:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 598440 at