http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/component/option%2Ccom_docman/Itemid%2C200023/gid%2C397/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/Is-this-the-Breaking-of-the-Bear.html en Angry Germany Slams Trump Criticism: Urges US To "Build Better Cars", Accuses Washington Of Causing Refugee Crisis http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/angry-germany-slams-trump-criticism-urges-us-build-better-cars-accuses-washington-ca <p>An angry Berlin has responded with a staunch defen<em>s</em>e of its policies <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-15/stunning-pair-interviews-trump-slams-nato-and-eu-threatens-bmw-tax-ready-cut-ties-me">after President-elect Donald Trump criticized German Chancellor Angela Merkel </a>in two separate Sunday interviews, one with Germany's Bild and one with the Sunday Times, for her stance during the refugee crisis while threatening a 35% tariff on BMW cars imported into the US. </p> <p>Germany’s deputy chancellor and minister for the economy, Sigmar Gabriel, said on Monday morning that a tax on German imports would lead to a “bad awakening” among US carmakers since they were reliant on transatlantic supply chains. “I believe BMW’s biggest factory is already in the US, in Spartanburg [South Carolina],” Gabriel, leader of the centre-left Social Democratic party, told the Bild newspaper in a video interview. </p> <p><strong>“The US car industry would have a bad awakening if all the supply parts that aren’t being built in the US were to suddenly come with a 35% tariff. I believe it would make the US car industry weaker, worse and above all more expensive</strong>." Playing Trump's threat off Congress, Gabriel added that he "would wait and see what the Congress has to say about that, which is mostly full of people who want the opposite of Trump" as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/16/germany-hits-back-at-trump-criticism-of-refugee-policy-and-bmw-tariff-threat">quoted by The Guardian</a>. </p> <p>In an interview with Bild and the Times, the US president-elect had indicated that he would aim to realign the “out of balance” car trade between Germany and the US. “If you go down Fifth Avenue everyone has a Mercedes Benz in front of his house, isn’t that the case?” he said. “How many Chevrolets do you see in Germany? Not very many, maybe none at all … it’s a one-way street.” </p> <p>Asked what Trump could do to make sure German customers bought more American cars, Gabriel said: “<strong>Build better cars.”</strong></p> <p><em><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/gabriel%20sigmar.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/gabriel%20sigmar_0.jpg" width="500" height="300" /></a><br />Asked what Trump could do to make sure German customers bought </em><br /><em>more American cars, Sigmar Gabriel said: ‘Build better cars.</em></p> <p>Trump's interview had an adverse impact shares in carmakers BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen, which fell on Monday morning following the President-elect's comments. BMW shares were down 0.85%, shares in Daimler were 1.54% lower and Volkswagen shares were trading 1.07% down in early trading in Frankfurt. All three carmakers have invested heavily in factories in Mexico, where production costs are lower than the US, with an eye to exporting smaller vehicles to the American market.</p> <p>Meanwhile, a BMW spokeswoman said a BMW Group plant in the central Mexican city of San Luis Potosi would build the BMW 3 Series starting from 2019, with the output intended for the world market. The plant in Mexico would be an addition to existing 3 Series production facilities in Germany and China. </p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Responding to Trump’s comments that Merkel had made an “<strong>utterly catastrophic mistake by letting all these illegals into the country</strong>”, Gabriel said the increase in the number of people fleeing the Middle East to seek asylum in Europe had partially been a result of US-led wars destabilising the region. </p> <p>Slamming US foreign policy - and thus the Obama regime, not to mention Angela Merkel's close friend Hillary Clinton - as a culprit for the European refugee crisis, Gabriel said that “<strong>there is a link between America’s flawed interventionist policy, especially the Iraq war, and the refugee crisis, that’s why my advice would be that we shouldn’t tell each other what we have done right or wrong, </strong>but that we look into establishing peace in that region and do everything to make sure people can find a home there again,” Gabriel said.</p> <p>“In that area Germany and Europe are already making enormous achievements – and that’s why I also thought it wasn’t right to talk about defence spending, where Mr Trump says we are spending too little to finance Nato. We are making gigantic financial contributions to refugee shelters in the region, and these are also the results of US interventionist policy.”</p> <p>Gabriel, who will likely run as the centre-left candidate against Merkel in Germany’s federal elections in September, said Trump’s election should encourage Europeans to stand up for themselves. </p> <p>“On the one hand, Trump is an elected president. When he is in office, we will have to work with him and his government – respect for a democratic election alone demands that,” Gabriel said. “On the other hand, you need to have enough self-confidence. This isn’t about making ourselves submissive. What he says about trade issues, how he might treat German carmakers, the question about Nato, his view on the European Union – all these require a self-confident position, not just on behalf of us Germans but all Europeans. We are not inferior to him, we have something to bring to the table too.</p> <p>“Especially in this phase in which Europe is rather weak, we will have to pull ourselves together and act with self-confidence and stand up for our own interests.”</p> <p>While Merkel has yet to provide a direct response to Trump's statements and refused to comment on the interview during a news conference with New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English, saying she would wait until after Trump's inauguration and then planned to work with him at all levels of government, her spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said the chancellor had read the Trump interview “with interest”, but declined to comment in more detail until the president-elect had been sworn in. </p> <p>“We are now waiting for President Trump to start his term and will then work closely with the new government,” he said, adding that "It’s a clear statement of the positions of the new American president, but the positions of the chancellor on many of these issues are equally clear."</p> <p>Martin Schäfer, a spokesman for the German foreign ministry, rejected Trump’s labelling of the EU as a “vehicle for Germany”. He said: “For the German government, Europe has never been a means to an end, but a community of fate which, in times of collapsing old orders, is more important than ever.”</p> <p>The foreign ministry also rejected Trump’s criticism that creating “security zones” in Syria would have been considerably cheaper than accepting refugees fleeing the war-torn country. “What exactly such a security zone is meant to be is beyond my comprehension and would have to be explained,” said Schäfer, adding that there had not been enough willingness among the international community to lend military support to create a no-fly zone in Syria.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Germany was not the only nation unhappy with Trump's statement: Pierre Moscovici, European economic affairs commissioner, also found fault with Trump’s assertion that other European countries would follow in Britain’s footsteps and leave the EU.</p> <p>“I’m not worried, I think this idea that Brexit is going to be contagious is a fantasy, a bad fantasy,” Moscovici told reporters in Paris. “Brexit is not a great thing,” he said, warning Trump that comments advocating a break-up of the EU would not get the trans-Atlantic relationship off to the best start.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Yet while Germany and Brussels were unhappy with Trump's criticism, Moscow was delighted, and sure enough Trump’s remarks on Nato were met more favourably in Moscow, where Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, agreed with the US president-elect that the alliance was “obsolete”. </p> <p>“Since Nato is tailored toward confrontation, all its structures are dedicated to the ideals of confrontation, you can’t really call it a modern organisation meeting the ideas of stability, steady growth and security,” he said. </p> <p>But Trump’s suggestion that the US could lift its sanctions on Russia in exchange for an agreement to reduce the countries’ nuclear arsenals elicited a cooler response. Peskov said Russia had not been conducting talks with the US about nuclear arsenal reduction and said cancelling sanctions was not a political goal in Russia. <strong>"Russia wasn’t the initiator in introducing these restrictions, and Russia, as the president of Russia has underlined, doesn’t intend to raise the issue of these sanctions in its foreign contacts,” </strong>he said.</p> <p>Last month, echoing similar comments by Trump, Putin said Russia needed to strengthen its strategic nuclear forces. Leonid Slutsky, a Russian MP, said he “wouldn’t connect these two issues and make the cancellation of sanctions a negotiating point in such a delicate area as nuclear security”. Konstantin Kosachyov, head of the foreign affairs committee in the Russian senate, said the cancellation of sanctions was “definitely not an end in and of itself for Russia”.</p> <p>“It’s not even a strategic goal for which something needs to be sacrificed, especially in the security sphere,” he told state news agency RIA Novosti. “We think [sanctions] are a bad legacy of the departing White House team that need to be sent after it into history.”</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>And yet, perhaps Trump's bluster was merely the latest ruse to get everyone on the negotiating table. It may be working already: as <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-merkel-visit-idUSKBN1501Q1?il=0">Reuters reports</a>, Chancellor Merkel is working to set a date this spring for a meeting with Donald Trump, who will be sworn in as U.S. president on Friday, German government sources said on Monday. Merkel had offered to meet Trump in the United States in her capacity as chairman of the Group of 20 leading economies, the sources said.</p> <p>The chancellor has spoken with Trump only once, shortly after his election to succeed U.S. President Barack Obama. Following Trump's latest "stunning" public statements, she now appears to be in a hurry to not only speak with him again, but also meet face to face.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="498" height="283" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/merkel%20angry%202.jpg?1484578512" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/angry-germany-slams-trump-criticism-urges-us-build-better-cars-accuses-washington-ca#comments Angela Merkel Barack Obama Bild China Congress Daimler Donald Trump Europe European Union European Union German government German Lutherans Germany Germany Government Group of 20 countries Iraq Mexico Middle East Middle East New Zealand Newspaper None North Atlantic Treaty Organization Politics Politics of Germany Reuters RIA Novosti Russian MP Russian senate Sigmar Sigmar Gabriel Social Democratic party South Carolina Vladimir Putin Volkswagen White House White House Mon, 16 Jan 2017 14:56:52 +0000 Tyler Durden 585575 at http://www.zerohedge.com Is Tolerance A One-Way Street? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/tolerance-one-way-street <p><a href="https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/9753/tolerance"><em>Submitted by Douglass Murray via The Gatestone Institute,</em></a></p> <ul> <li><strong>When just about every other magazine in the free world fails to uphold the values of free speech and the right to caricature and offend, who could expect a group of cartoonists and writers who have already paid such a high price to keep holding the line of such freedoms single-handed?</strong></li> <li>Most of the people who said they cared about the right to say what they wanted when they wanted, were willing to walk the walk -- to walk through Paris with a pencil in the air. Or they were willing to talk the talk, proclaiming &quot;Je Suis Charlie.&quot; But almost no one really meant it.</li> <li>If President Hollande and Chancellor Merkel had really believed in standing up for freedom of expression, then instead of walking arm-in-arm through Paris together with such an inappropriate figure as Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, they would have held up covers of <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> and said: &quot;This is what a free society looks like and this is what we back: everyone, political leaders, gods, prophets, the lot can be satirised, and if you do not like it then you should hop off to whatever unenlightened hell-hole you dream of.&quot;</li> <li><strong>The entire world press has internalised what happened at <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> and instead of standing united, has decided never to risk something like that ever happening to them again.</strong></li> <li>For the last two years, we have learned for certain that any such tolerance is a one-way street. This new submission to Islamist terrorism is possibly why, in 2016, when an athlete with no involvement in politics, religion or satire was caught doing something that might have been seen as less than fully respectful of Islam, there was no one around to defend him.</li> </ul> <p><strong>The 7<sup id="yiv3590618411yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1483988973922_41263">th</sup> of this month marked two years to the day since two gunmen walked into the offices of the satirical magazine <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> in Paris and murdered twelve people.</strong> This period also therefore marks the second anniversary of the period of about an hour during which much of the free world proclaimed itself to be &quot;Charlie&quot; and attempted, by walking through the street, standing for moments of silence or re-tweeting the hashtag &quot;Je Suis Charlie&quot; to show the whole world that freedom cannot be suppressed and that the pen is mightier than the Kalashnikov.</p> <p><strong><em>So two years on is a good time to take stock of the situation. How did that go? Did all those &quot;Je Suis&quot; statements amount to anything more than a blip on the Twitter-sphere? Anyone trying to answer such a question might start by looking at the condition of the journal everyone was so concerned about. How has it fared in the two years since most of its senior editorial staff were gunned down by the blasphemy police?</em></strong></p> <table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="margin-bottom: 5px; max-width: 600px;"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="max-width: 600px; border: 1px solid black;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/pics/2214.jpg" width="600" /><br /> <p style="font-size: 82%; margin: 4px 6px;">A Paris rally on January 11, 2015, after the <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> attack, featuring &quot;Je Suis Charlie&quot; signs. (Image source: Olivier Ortelpa/Wikimedia Commons)</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p><u><strong>Not well, </strong></u>if a test of the magazine&#39;s wellbeing is whether it would be willing to repeat the &quot;crime&quot; for which it was attacked. Six months after the slaughter, in July 2015, the new editor of the publication, Laurent Sourisseau, announced that <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> would no longer publish depictions of the Prophet of Islam. <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> had, he said, &quot;done its job&quot; and &quot;defended the right to caricature.&quot; It had published more Muhammad cartoons in the issue immediately after the mass murder at their offices and since. But, he said, they did not need to keep on doing so. Few people could have berated him and his colleagues for such a decision. When just about every other magazine in the free world fails to uphold the values of free speech and the right to caricature and offend, who could expect a group of cartoonists and writers who have already paid such a high price to keep holding the line of such freedoms single-handed?</p> <p><strong>Now, at the second anniversary of the atrocity, one of the magazine&#39;s most prominent figures, Zineb El Rhazoui, has announced that she is leaving the magazine. </strong>El Rhazoui, who has been described as &quot;the most protected woman in France&quot; because of the security detail she receives from the French state, has announced that <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> has gone &quot;soft&quot; on Islamic radicalism. She told Agence France-Presse that &quot;<em>Charlie Hebdo</em> died on [7 January 2015].&quot; The magazine had previously had a &quot;capacity to carry the torch of irreverence and absolute liberty&quot; she said. &quot;Freedom at any cost is what I loved about <em>Charlie Hebdo</em>, where I worked through great adversity.&#39;</p> <p>Of course, El Rhazoui is an unusual person. And a scarce one in twenty-first century Europe. Which is why she needs the security detail. Most of the people who said they cared about the right to say what they wanted when they wanted, about everything and anything -- including one particularly stern and unamused religion -- were willing to walk the walk: that is, they were willing to walk through Paris with a pencil in the air. Or they were willing to talk the talk, proclaiming &quot;Je Suis Charlie.&quot; But almost no one really meant it. If they had, then -- as Mark Steyn pointed out -- those crowds in Paris would not have been parading through the streets holding pencils, but holding cartoons of Mohammed. &quot;You&#39;re going to have to get us all&quot; would have been the message.</p> <p>And ditto the leaders. If President François Hollande and Chancellor Angela Merkel had really believed in standing up for freedom of expression, then instead of walking arm-in-arm through Paris together with such an inappropriate figure as Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, they would have held up covers of <em>Charlie Hebdo</em> and said: <strong><em>&quot;This is what a free society looks like and this is what we back: everyone, political leaders, gods, prophets, the lot can be satirised, and if you do not like it then you should hop off to whatever unenlightened hell-hole you dream of. But Europe is not the continent for you.&quot;</em></strong></p> <p><strong>Instead, in the two years since those gestures, European society went quiet. </strong>Of course, there have been regular opportunities to display the modern idea of virtue, often using <em id="yiv3590618411yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1484044337121_32521">Charlie Hebdo</em> as the punching bag. Since being alerted to the existence of the magazine by the gunmen, the censorious types who now fill our societies (and who probably do not even buy or read magazines) nevertheless regularly send out social media messages objecting to things to which they have been alerted within the magazine.</p> <p><strong>So it is that a rude and satirical magazine has found itself repeatedly judged by the humourless morality police of our day and often deemed to be insufficiently reverential about various world events.</strong> A <em id="yiv3590618411yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1484044337121_32332">Charlie Hebdo</em> cartoon about the Cologne New Year&#39;s Eve sexual assaults was deemed in poor taste. Elsewhere, the publication&#39;s response to an earthquake in Italy failed to hit the single acceptable note in the eyes of some non-readers. Likewise the crash of a Russian jet and other stories that were considered to lack appropriate piety.</p> <p>Meantime, we are in a situation, as the British author Kenan Malik said of the period after the <em id="yiv3590618411yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1483988973922_41379">Satanic Verses</em> affair, of having &quot;internalised&quot; the atrocity.<strong> The entire world press -- perhaps especially, in free countries -- has internalised what happened at <em>Charlie Hebdo,</em> and instead of standing united has decided, quietly and in the privacy of their own offices, never to risk something like that ever happening to them again. </strong>This new submission to Islamist terrorist demands is possibly why, in 2016, when an athlete with no involvement in politics, religion or satire was caught doing something that might have been seen as less than fully respectful of Islam, there was<a href="https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/9100/mockery-islam" target="_blank"> no one around to defend him</a>. Even the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, asked in the House of Commons to stand up for the right of an athlete not to have his career destroyed because of one fleeting, drunken joke, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37845982" target="_blank">equivocated</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;This is a balance that we need to find. We value freedom of expression and freedom of speech in this country -- that is absolutely essential in underpinning our democracy.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;But we also value tolerance to others. We also value tolerance in relation to religions. This is one of the issues that we have looked at in the counter-extremism strategy that the Government has produced.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;I think we need to ensure that yes it is right that people can have that freedom of expression, but in doing so that right has a responsibility too -- and that is a responsibility to recognise the importance of tolerance to others.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p>For the last two years, we have learned for certain that any such tolerance is a one-way street. Our societies had been walking up it. But from the other direction came the Kalashnikov brigade who only had to fire once; in the face of it, the whole civilised world chose to U-turn and run back the other way. <strong><em>Allah&#39;s blasphemy police would be foolish not to push the advantage that such capitulation gives their cause over the months and years ahead.</em></strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="574" height="307" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170116_jesuischarlie.jpg?1484573390" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/tolerance-one-way-street#comments France Hashtags Italy Kalashnikov Mon, 16 Jan 2017 14:40:19 +0000 Tyler Durden 585574 at http://www.zerohedge.com IMF Downplays Trump Stimulus Effect; Slashes Saudi, Mexico Growth In Latest World Economic Outlook http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/imf-downplays-trump-stimulus-effect-slashes-saudi-mexico-growth-latest-world-economi <p>As the world&#39;s elite gather in Davos to decide for the minions what the world should look like, The IMF has taken a far dimmer view of global (and by that we mean Trumpian) economic growth than markets appear to be. In addition to <strong>slashing Brazilian, Mexican, and Saudi Arabian economic growth</strong> forecasts, <span>Lagarde&#39;s lackeys are taking a<strong> cautious stance toward the policies of U.S. President-elect<span>&nbsp;</span></strong></span><strong><span>Donald Trump</span></strong><span>, who takes office this week, assuming<strong> only a modest boost to the U.S. economy from his promise of fiscal stimulus.</strong></span></p> <p><span>As Bloomberg reports,</span> <strong>The IMF maintained its forecast for global growth in 2017 of 3.4 percent, </strong>the Washington-based organization said Monday in a quarterly update to its World Economic Outlook. Expansion for 2018 is forecast at 3.6 percent, also unchanged from the fund&rsquo;s previous forecast in October.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>After a lackluster outturn in 2016, economic activity is projected to pick up pace in 2017 and 2018, especially in emerging market and developing economies. However, there is a wide dispersion of possible outcomes around the projections, given uncertainty surrounding the policy stance of the incoming U.S. administration and its global ramifications. The assumptions underpinning the forecast should be more specific by the time of the April 2017 World Economic Outlook, as more clarity emerges on U.S. policies and their implications for the global economy.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>With these caveats, aggregate growth estimates and projections for 2016&ndash;18 remain unchanged relative to the October 2016 World Economic Outlook. <strong>The outlook for advanced economies has improved for 2017&ndash;18, reflecting somewhat stronger activity in the second half of 2016 as well as a projected fiscal stimulus in the United States.</strong> Growth prospects have marginally worsened for emerging market and developing economies, where financial conditions have generally tightened. Near-term growth prospects were revised up for China, due to expected policy stimulus, but were revised down for a number of other large economies&mdash;most notably India, Brazil, and Mexico.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>While the balance of risks is viewed as being to the downside, there are also upside risks to near-term growth. </strong>Specifically, global activity could accelerate more strongly if policy stimulus turns out to be larger than currently projected in the United States or China. <strong>Notable negative risks to activity include a possible shift toward inward-looking policy platforms and protectionism, a sharper than expected tightening in global financial conditions that could interact with balance sheet weaknesses in parts of the euro area and in some emerging market economies, increased geopolitical tensions, and a more severe slowdown in China.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>In a welcome move to Brexiters the IMF hiked its outlook on UK growth, saying &quot;domestic demand held up better than expected in the aftermath of the Brexit vote&quot;, but warned that while it was upgrading its outlook on China GDP, it warned that China&#39;s &quot;sugar-rush&quot; growth presents risks to future stability.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The growth forecast for 2017 was revised up for China (to 6.5 percent, 0.3 percentage point above the October forecast) on expectations of continued policy support. <strong>However, continued reliance on policy stimulus measures, with rapid expansion of credit and slow progress in addressing corporate debt, especially in hardening the budget constraints of state-owned enterprises, raises the risk of a sharper slowdown or a disruptive adjustment. These risks can be exacerbated by capital outflow pressures, especially in a more unsettled external environment.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>The full breakdown:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/13/20170116_IMF.jpg"><img height="539" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/13/20170116_IMF_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>The IMF further notes that the impact of a Trump administration is one of the biggest unknowns facing the global economy.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>While Trump has promised to<span>&nbsp;</span><span>cut taxes</span><span>&nbsp;</span>and boost infrastructure spending, he&rsquo;s also threatened to impose tariffs on trade partners such as China and Mexico. Such punitive measures may sap growth if they provoke retaliation. Trump&rsquo;s policy priorities will become clearer after his inauguration on Jan. 20 in Washington.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The high degree of uncertainty about what&rsquo;s in store for U.S. economic policy presents a &ldquo;wider than usual range of upside and down risk factors,&rdquo; </strong>IMF Chief Economist<span>&nbsp;</span><span>Maurice Obstfeld</span><span>&nbsp;</span>said in remarks prepared for delivery Monday.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;In light of the U.S. economy&rsquo;s momentum coming into 2017 and the likely shift in policy mix, we have moderately raised our two-year projections for U.S. growth,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;However, the specifics of future fiscal legislation remain unclear, as do the degree of net increase in government spending and the resulting impacts on aggregate demand, potential output, the Federal deficit, and the dollar.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The IMF bumped up its forecast for U.S. growth by only 0.1 percentage point this year and 0.4 points for 2018. The U.S. economy will expand by 2.3 percent in 2017 before firming to a 2.5 percent rate in 2018, according to the update.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The<span>&nbsp;</span><span>Federal Reserve</span><span>&nbsp;</span>is now expected to raise rates at a less gradual pace than IMF staff projected in October, the fund said, without specifying the number of rate hikes it anticipates this year.</p> </blockquote> <p>It remains less optimistic on EM nations such as Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico, however:</p> <ul> <li><strong>*IMF CUTS BRAZIL 2017 GROWTH OUTLOOK TO 0.2% FROM 0.5%</strong></li> </ul> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The<span>&nbsp;</span><span>International Monetary Fund</span><span>&nbsp;</span>more than halved its 2017 growth outlook for Brazil, citing weaker-than-expected activity in Latin America&rsquo;s largest economy.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Brazil will grow 0.2 percent this year,&nbsp;compared with a prior forecast of 0.5 percent, the IMF said in an update of its World Economic Outlook. The fund is now more pessimistic than all but three of the 39 analysts Bloomberg surveyed, whose median forecast is 0.8 percent.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Like most economists, the IMF is tempering its optimism about the government of President Michel Temer. The fund had forecast<span>&nbsp;</span><span>stagnation</span><span>&nbsp;</span>for Brazil early last year, but<span>&nbsp;</span><span>boosted</span><span>&nbsp;</span>that outlook to a half-point expansion soon after&nbsp;Temer assumed Brazil&rsquo;s presidency in May.</p> </blockquote> <ul> <li><strong>*IMF CUTS SAUDI ARABIA 2017 GDP GROWTH FORECAST TO 0.4% FROM 2%</strong></li> </ul> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The International Monetary Fund cut its growth outlook for Saudi Arabia on lower oil production, underscoring the challenges facing the kingdom as it seeks to overhaul its economy.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Gross domestic product will expand 0.4 percent in 2017, the lender said in its World Economic Outlook report update on Monday, citing the impact of the recent deal by&nbsp;the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce output. It compares with the fund&rsquo;s October prediction of 2 percent, and a median estimate of 0.9 percent in a Bloomberg<span>&nbsp;</span><span>survey</span>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The sharply lower forecast comes as Saudi Arabia seeks to build investor confidence in its long-term strategy to reduce dependence on crude and boost non-oil sectors of its economy,&nbsp;while trying to plug one of the Middle East&rsquo;s biggest budget deficits. The kingdom is planning to<span>&nbsp;</span><span>borrow<span>&nbsp;</span></span>as much as $15 billion this year on international debt markets to help fund its spending plans, following last year&rsquo;s $17.5 billion sovereign bond sale.</p> </blockquote> <ul> <li><strong>*IMF CUTS MEXICO 2017 GROWTH OUTLOOK TO 1.7% FROM 2.3%</strong></li> </ul> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Citing &ldquo;U.S.-related uncertainty,&rdquo; the IMF slashed its projection for Mexico&rsquo;s growth to 1.7 percent this year, down 0.6 percentage point from the October forecast.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Trump has promised to end or renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico that&rsquo;s been key to Mexico becoming a manufacturing powerhouse over the past two decades.</p> </blockquote> <p>Ironically, given the establishment&#39;s devastating forecast pre-Brexit, <strong>The IMF has increased its growth outlook for UK</strong>... <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b7a3ddcc-767a-3817-891c-91fde0eacb64"><em>(via The FT)</em></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its UK growth forecast for the second time after the Brexit vote as it predicted global economic growth will pick up from its slowest pace since the aftermath of the financial crisis.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In its latest set of economic forecasts, the Washington-based IMF said it now expects the British economy to expand by 1.5 per cent this year from an earlier projection of 1.1 per cent &ndash; the biggest single upgrade of any major economy in its January update for 2017.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Growth in 2016 was also nudged up to 2 per cent from an October projection of 1.8 per cent but expansion in 2018 would come in lower at 1.4 per cent from an earlier forecast of 1.8 per cent, said the fund.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>It is the latest immediate growth upgrade for the UK since the IMF warned a decision to leave the EU would wreak &ldquo;severe&rdquo; damage to Britain&rsquo;s growth prospects before the June referendum.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The pre-referendum warnings came in for severe criticism from pro-Brexit campaigners, with the fund defending itself by saying it would have been &ldquo;malpractice&rdquo; not to have considered worst-case scenarios from a &ldquo;leave&rdquo; vote.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The UK economy has broadly defied warnings to continue growing at a healthy clip since the June vote, accelerating to a 0.6 per cent pace in the third quarter. The latest raft of business surveys also point to robust growth at the end of the year, helped along by buoyant consumer spending.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;Domestic demand [has] held up better than expected in the aftermath of the Brexit vote&rdquo;, said the IMF.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Full IMF Report below:</p> <p><iframe class="scribd_iframe_embed" data-aspect-ratio="0.7729220222793488" data-auto-height="false" frameborder="0" height="600" id="doc_55731" scrolling="no" src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/336690454/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-DvMoKBfkZ2fxQ3AKUQaY&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="233" height="135" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170116_IMF11.jpg?1484577324" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/imf-downplays-trump-stimulus-effect-slashes-saudi-mexico-growth-latest-world-economi#comments Bond Brazil Business China Crude Davos Donald Trump Economic development Economic history of Pakistan Economy Economy of the United Kingdom European Union Federal Deficit Federal Reserve Global Economy Great Recession Great Recession in Europe Gross Domestic Product India International development International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund International Monetary Fund Latin America Mexico Middle East Middle East Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Political debates about the United States federal budget Saudi Arabia Trump Administration United Nations United Nations Development Group United Nations Economic and Social Council US Administration US Federal Reserve World Economic Outlook Mon, 16 Jan 2017 14:21:22 +0000 Tyler Durden 585573 at http://www.zerohedge.com In Stunning Pair Of Interviews, Trump Slams NATO And EU, Threatens BMW With Tax; Prepared To "Cut Ties" With Merkel http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-15/stunning-pair-interviews-trump-slams-nato-and-eu-threatens-bmw-tax-ready-cut-ties-me <p>In two separate, and quite striking, interviews with Germany's Bild (<a href="https://t.co/GlSFzsHZ5W">paywall</a>) and London's Sunday Times (<a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/donald-trump-interview-brexit-uk-trade-deal-theresa-may-phthbjsmw?CMP=Spklr-_-Editorial-_-TWITTER-_-thetimes-_-20170115-_-778582099&amp;linkId=33419018">paywall</a>), Donald Trump did what he failed to do in his first US press conference, and covered an extensive amount of policy and strategy, much of which however will likely please neither the pundits, nor the markets. </p> <p>Among the numerous topics covered in the Bild interview, he called NATO obsolete, predicted that other European Union members would join the U.K. in leaving the bloc and threatened BMW with import duties over a planned plant in Mexico, according to a Sunday interview granted to Germany’s Bild newspaper that will raise concerns in Berlin over trans-Atlantic relations. Furthermore, in his first "exclusive" interview in the UK granted to the Sunday Times, Trump said he will offer Britain a quick and “fair” trade deal with America within weeks of taking office to help make Brexit a “great thing”. Trump revealed that he was inviting Theresa May to visit him “right after” he gets into the White House and wants a trade agreement between the two countries secured “very quickly”. </p> <p>Trump told the Times that other countries would follow Britain’s lead in leaving the European Union, claiming it had been deeply &shy;damaged by the migration crisis. “I think it’s very tough,” he said. “People, countries want their own identity and the UK wanted its own identity.” </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/trump%20times%20interview%203.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/trump%20times%20interview%203_0.jpg" width="500" height="545" /></a></p> <p>Elsewhere, quoted in German from a conversation held in English, Trump predicted Britain’s exit from the EU will be a success and portrayed the EU as an instrument of German domination with the purpose of beating the U.S. in international trade. For that reason, Trump said, he’s fairly indifferent whether the EU breaks up or stays together, according to Bild. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-15/trump-calls-nato-obsolete-and-dismisses-eu-in-german-interview">According to Bloomberg</a>, Trump’s comments "leave little doubt that he will stick to campaign positions and may in some cases upend decades of U.S. foreign policy, putting him fundamentally at odds with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on issues from free trade and refugees to security and the EU’s role in the world." </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/trump%20bild%20interview.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/trump%20bild%20interview_0.jpg" width="500" height="281" /></a></p> <p>Trump then attacked another carmarker, previosuly unnoticed by the president-elect, when he warned <strong>the United States will impose a border tax of 35 percent on cars that German carmaker BMW plans to build at a new plant in Mexico and export to the U.S. market</strong>.&nbsp; A BMW spokeswoman said a BMW Group plant in San Luis Potosi would build the BMW 3 Series starting from 2019, with the output intended for the world market. The plant in Mexico would be an addition to existing 3 Series production facilities in Germany and China. Trump said BMW should build its new car factory in the United States because this would be "much better" for the company. </p> <p>He went on to say Germany was a great car producer, borne out by Mercedes Benz cars being a frequent sight in New York, but there was no reciprocity. Germans were not buying Chevrolets at the same rate, he said, making the business relationship an unfair one-way street. He said he was an advocate of free trade, but not at any cost. The BMW spokeswoman said the company was "very much at home in the U.S.," employing directly and indirectly nearly 70,000 people in the country.</p> <p>Going back to foreign policy, Trump discussed his stance on Russia and suggested he might use economic sanctions imposed for Vladimir Putin’s encroachment on Ukraine as leverage in nuclear-arms reduction talks, while NATO, he said, “has problems.” </p> <p>“[<strong>NATO] is obsolete, first because it was designed many, many years ago</strong>,” Bild quoted Trump as saying about the trans-Atlantic military alliance. <strong>“Secondly, countries aren’t paying what they should” and NATO “didn’t deal with terrorism.” </strong></p> <p>While those comments expanded on doubts Trump raised about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization during his campaign, he reserved some of his most dismissive remarks for the EU and Merkel, whose open-border refugee policy he called a “catastrophic mistake.” He further elaborated on this stance in the Times interview, where he said he was willing to lift Russian sanctions in return for a reduction in nuclear weapons. </p> <p>When asked about the prospect of a nuclear arms reduction deal with Russia, Trump told the newspaper in an interview: "For one thing, I think nuclear weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially, that’s part of it.”</p> <p>Additionally, Trump said Brexit will turn out to be a "great thing."&nbsp; Trump said he would work very hard to get a trade deal with the United Kingdom "done quickly and done properly". </p> <p>Trump praised Britons for voting last year to leave the EU. People and countries want their own identity and don’t want outsiders to come in and “destroy it.” The U.K. is smart to leave the bloc because the EU “is basically a means to an end for Germany,” Bild cited Trump as saying. “<strong>If you ask me, more countries will leave</strong>,” he was quoted as saying. </p> <p>While Trump blamed Brexit on an influx of refugees he said that Britain was forced to accept, the U.K.’s number of asylum applications in 2015 was a fraction of the 890,000 refugees who arrived in Germany that year at the peak of Europe’s migrant crisis.</p> <p>With Merkel facing an unprecedented challenge from the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany as she seeks a fourth term this fall, Trump was asked whether he’d like to see her re-elected. He said he couldn’t say, adding that while he respects Merkel, who’s been in office for 11 years, he doesn’t know her and she has hurt Germany by letting “all these illegals” into the country.</p> <p>Among Trump's other comments to Bild:: </p> <ul> <li><strong>the Bush administration’s decision to invade Iraq may have been the worst in U.S. history; </strong></li> <li><strong>that Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, is a natural talent who will bring about an accord with Israel</strong></li> <li><strong>Trump plans to keep using social media including Twitter once he’s in the White House to sidestep the press and communicate directly with his followers</strong></li> <li><strong>People entering the U.S. will face “extreme” security checks, possibly including some European nationals </strong></li> </ul> <p>But perhaps the most troubling, if only to legacy US diplomatic relations, was that, as the Times noted, "despite all of Mr Trump's expressions of admiration for Mr Putin and Mrs Merkel, he revealed that he was prepared to cut ties with both: "Well, I start off trusting both -&nbsp; but let's see how long that lasts. It may not last long at all."</p> <p>It is unclear if this litany of strategic and tactical announcements, many of which quite shocking in their audacity and scope, is merely meant to serve as a launching pad for further negotiations, something Trump has proven quite adept at doing by stunning his counterparties into a state of abrupt silence, or if these are actually meant to serve as a basis for future US policy; if it is the latter, when US markets reopen they may have a distinct case of indigestion because while the market had desperately hoped for more clarity out of Trump on his policies, what emerged in these two interview is hardly it.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1280" height="720" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/trump%20bild%20interview.jpg?1484523373" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-15/stunning-pair-interviews-trump-slams-nato-and-eu-threatens-bmw-tax-ready-cut-ties-me#comments American people of German descent Automotive industry BMW Bush Administration Business China Climate change skepticism and denial Counterparties Donald Trump Donald Trump Donald Trump presidential campaign European Union European Union Germany Iraq Mexico Newspaper North Atlantic Treaty Organization Political positions of Donald Trump The Apprentice Twitter Twitter Ukraine United Kingdom White House White House WWE Hall of Fame Mon, 16 Jan 2017 14:15:23 +0000 Tyler Durden 585551 at http://www.zerohedge.com Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/key-events-coming-week-trump-inauguration-davos-theresa-may-ecb-china-gdp <p>The week ahead promises to be a full one, with a plethora of events coming up. The Word Economic Forum in Davos could generate some headlines, with particular focus on Chinese President Xi Jinping, who will be the first Chinese president to attend. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech, while of course Friday marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. We will also be keeping a weather eye out for the Supreme Court ruling on Article 50, although there is no set date for its announcement. </p> <p><strong>Central Banks: ECB and BOC</strong></p> <p>No policy change is expected from either the ECB or the BoC, but both press conferences will draw attention, particularly that of President Draghi. The market is convinced that Draghi will <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-16/draghi-seen-staying-strong-on-qe-with-faster-inflation-no-bar?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&amp;utm_content=business&amp;utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social">do his best to be boring.</a></p> <p><strong>China Economic Update</strong></p> <p>There is a barrage of Chinese data out on Friday, where the most closely followed number will be China's Real GDP for 4Q will be released in China, as well as IP, retail sales, FAI and December property prices. On Monday, Xi Jinping said China's 2016 GDP is expected to be 6.7%. </p> <p><strong>US: CPI, Industrial Production, Housing, Trump Inauguration</strong></p> <p>There is a busy US calendar ahead, with CPI, Empire Manufacturing, industrial production, housing data and Philly Fed reports. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including two by Chair Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday. The Beige Book for the January FOMC period will be released on Wednesday. The week culminates in the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Cabinet confirmation hearings will also be continuing during the week.</p> <p><strong>Eurozone and UK</strong></p> <p>In the Eurozone, the ECB will be the main event, with the German ZEW and final inflation prints the only data releases of note. In the UK, there is an important week ahead with Theresa May’s speech on Brexit the main focus, but also releases of inflation data, retail sales and the labor market report. Keep an eye out out for the UK Supreme Court ruling on Article 50, although there is no set date for the release.</p> <p><strong>Others</strong></p> <p>In Japan, we get machine orders, PPI, tertiary industry index, the final print of November IP and a speech from the BoJ’s Nakaso. In Australia, labor force data is the key release in the week ahead, while housing finance approvals and consumer confidence in both Australia and New Zealand will also be of interest. In Canada, focus will be on the BoC monetary policy meeting, but we also get CPI and retail sales data. It&nbsp; should be a very quiet week ahead in Switzerland and the Scandies, although we do hear from Norges Bank Governor Olsen, and of course Switzerland hosts the WEF in Davos. There will be monetary policy meetings in Chile, Malaysia and Indonesia.</p> <p><strong>Earnings</strong></p> <p>Earnings will also be in the spotlight with Morgan Stanley tomorrow, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Netflix on Wednesday, IBM on Thursday and Schlumberger and General Electric on Friday due.</p> <p><strong>Davos And Trump</strong></p> <p>Away from that world leaders will also congregate in Davos this week for the World Economic Forum while UK PM Theresa May is due to outline Brexit plans on Tuesday. Clearly the other big focus this week is the inauguration of Donald Trump as US President on Friday.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/bofa%20preview%201.16.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/bofa%20preview%201.16_0.jpg" width="500" height="596" /></a></p> <p>* * * </p> <p><strong>A look at key events by day courtesy of DB:</strong></p> <ul> <li>With markets closed in the US today for Martin Luther King Day it’s an unsurprisingly quiet start to the week with just the Euro area trade balance reading in November due. </li> <li>Tuesday kicks off in Japan where industrial production data is due. In Europe there will be plenty of focus on the ECB’s bank lending survey due early on, while the December inflation report in the UK will also be under the spotlight. The January ZEW survey for Germany is also due out. Over in the US tomorrow the only data due out is the January Empire manufacturing print. </li> <li>Turning to Wednesday, Germany and the Euro area will release the final revisions&nbsp; to December CPI reports while the UK will release the latest labour market data. Over in the US inflation data will also be the focus with the December report due out. Industrial and manufacturing production, as well as the NAHB housing market index will also be due. </li> <li>With little else of note on Thursday morning the main focus will be on the ECB policy meeting. In the US we’ll get housing starts and building permits data as well initial jobless claims and the Philly Fed business outlook print. </li> <li>It’s a blockbuster end to the week in China on Friday with the Q4 GDP print due along with December activity indicators including industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. During the European session we’ll get PPI in Germany and retail sales in the UK. There’s nothing of note in the US on Friday except for Trump's inauguration of course.</li> </ul> <p>There’s also plenty of Fedspeak this week. Both Dudley and Williams are scheduled to speak tomorrow, before Kashkari and Yellen speak on Wednesday. The latter is taking part in a discussion at the Commonwealth Club in San Francisco however is also expected to give an economic assessment. The Fed Chair then speaks again on Friday, along with Harker and Williams. The ECB’s Villeroy and Praet also speak today along with the BoE’s Carney while we’ll also get the usual ECB press conference on Thursday. </p> <p>* * * </p> <p><strong>Finally, here is a full breakdown of just US events, together with consensus estimates, courtesy of Goldman Sachs</strong></p> <p><em>The key economic release this week is CPI on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including two by Chair Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday. The Beige Book for the January FOMC period will be released on Wednesday. </em></p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Monday, January 16 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li>US markets are closed in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. There will be no economic data releases.</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Tuesday, January 17 </strong></span></p> <p><strong>08:45 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks: </strong>Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley will give a speech on “Evolving Consumer Behavior: A View from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York” at an event sponsored by the National Retail Federation. </p> <p><strong>08:30 AM Empire manufacturing survey, January (consensus +8.5, last +9.0)</strong></p> <p><strong>10:00 AM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on “The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Monetary Policy” at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. Audience Q&amp;A is expected.</p> <p><strong>06:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give the keynote speech at the Sacramento Business Review Economic Forecast at Sacramento State University in California. Audience and media Q&amp;A is expected.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Wednesday, January 18 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>08:30 AM CPI (mom), December (GS +0.29%, consensus +0.30%, last +0.20%); Core CPI (mom), December (GS +0.20%, consensus +0.20%, last +0.15%); CPI (yoy), December (GS +2.1%, consensus +2.1%, last +1.7%); Core CPI (yoy), December (GS +2.2%, consensus +2.2%, last +2.1%):</strong> We expect that core CPI rose by 0.20% in December or 2.2% on a year-over-year basis. In the November report, core inflation was softer than expected, mainly due to lower inflation in the categories of apparel, medical care, airfares, and lodging away from home. We expect some payback in the apparel category, in part related to colder-than-average December temperatures. Headline consumer prices likely increased by 0.29% in December. On a year-over-year basis, the headline index likely increased by 2.1%.</li> <li><strong>09:00 AM Dallas Fed President Kaplan (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan will participate in a panel discussion on “Confidence in Uncertain Times”. Media and audience Q&amp;A is expected. President Kaplan is a voting member of the FOMC this year.</li> <li><strong>09:15 AM Industrial production, December (GS +1.1%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.4%): Manufacturing production, December (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last -0.1%); Capacity utilization, December (GS 75.8%, consensus 75.4%, last 75.0%):</strong> We expect industrial production to rebound by 1.1% in the December report following two months of weakness, based on our expectation of a rebound in the weather-sensitive utilities category.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, January (consensus 69, last 70):</strong> Consensus expects the NAHB homebuilders’ index—which we have found to be a decent leading indicator of housing starts—to tick down to 69, though still near post-crisis highs.</li> <li><strong>11:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will give a speech on economic opportunity and inclusive growth at an event hosted by the Minneapolis Urban League. Audience and media Q&amp;A is expected. President Kashkari will be a voting member on the FOMC this year.</li> <li><strong>02:00 PM Beige Book, January-February FOMC meeting period:</strong> The Fed’s Beige Book is a summary of regional economic anecdotes from the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The December Beige Book reported modestly slower activity in a few districts, stronger consumer spending and residential investment, and mixed manufacturing activity. In the January-February Beige Book, we will look for additional anecdotes related to the state of manufacturing activity, price inflation, and wage growth.</li> <li><strong>03:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech on “The Goals of Monetary Policy and How We Pursue Them” in front of the Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco. Audience Q&amp;A is expected.</li> <li><strong>04:00 PM Total Net TIC Flows (last +$18.8bn)</strong></li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Thursday, January 19 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>08:30 AM Housing starts, December (GS +12.0%, consensus +8.6%, last -18.7%); Building permits, December (consensus +1.1%, last -3.8%):</strong> We expect housing starts to rebound 12% in December, following a 19% drop in November led by the volatile multifamily category. Despite colder-than-usual December temperatures, favorable single-family fundamentals and a rising backlog of approved permits suggest scope for a meaningful rebound. Consensus expects a more modest rise of 8.6% for housing starts and looks for a 1.1% increase in building permits.</li> <li><strong>08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 14 (GS 265k, consensus 251k, last 247k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 7 (last 2,087k):</strong> We expect initial jobless claims to rebound 18k to 265k, following two consecutive readings not far from the cycle low. We remain in a period where seasonal adjustment is difficult, and we are hesitant to infer a drop in the trend pace of layoffs based on the most recent two reports. Seasonality-related uncertainty will affect the data for at least two more weeks, and accordingly, confidence around our 265k forecast is low. The drop in initial claims has not yet been mirrored in continuing claims, which have actually risen relative to the levels in early December (as of the week ending December 31).</li> <li><strong>08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, January (GS +16.0, consensus +16.0, last +19.7):</strong> We expect the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey to pull back to +16.0 following last month’s increase to +19.7, remaining at levels signaling expansion in manufacturing activity. Last week, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conducted its annual historical revision and calculation of new seasonal adjustment factors. For December, the index was revised down modestly to +19.7 from +21.5.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams will give the keynote address at the Solano Economic Development Corporation’s Annual Luncheon Meeting in Fairfield, California. Audience Q&amp;A is expected.</li> <li><strong>08:00 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech on the economic outlook and US monetary policy at an event hosted by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Audience Q&amp;A is expected.</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Friday, January 20 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>09:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks</strong>: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will participate in a discussion on the economic outlook at the New Jersey Bankers Association’s 6th Annual NJ Economic Leadership Forum. Media Q&amp;A is expected. Last week, President Harker reiterated his support for three rate hikes this year.</li> <li><strong>01:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Williams (FOMC non-voter) speaks:</strong> San Francisco Fed President John Williams will give closing remarks at the Bay Area Council Economic Institute’s 10th Annual Economic Forecast event in San Francisco. Audience Q&amp;A is expected. Remarks will likely be similar to those from his speaking engagement on Tuesday.</li> </ul> <p><em>Source: BofA, DB, Goldman</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1176" height="514" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/preview%20teaser.jpg?1484574156" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/key-events-coming-week-trump-inauguration-davos-theresa-may-ecb-china-gdp#comments 8.5% Australia Bank Lending Survey Bank of England Bank of Japan Bank of New York Bay Area Council Economic Institute Beige Book Brookings Institution Business Central Banks Central banks China Citigroup Committees Commonwealth Club in San Francisco Commonwealth Club of California in San Francisco Consumer Confidence Consumer Prices Continuing Claims Core CPI CPI Dallas Fed Dallas Fed Davos Donald Trump Economic policy Economics Economy Eurozone federal government Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federal Reserve Bank of New York Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Federal Reserve System fixed General Electric Germany goldman sachs Goldman Sachs headlines Housing Market Housing Starts Initial Jobless Claims Janet Yellen Janet Yellen Japan John Williams Macroeconomics Minneapolis Fed Minneapolis Urban League Monetary Policy Monetary policy Morgan Stanley NAHB National Retail Federation Neel Kashkari Neel Kashkari New Jersey Bankers Association New York Fed New York Fed New Zealand Norges Bank Norges Bank Open market operation Philadelphia Fed Philadelphia Fed manufacturing Philly Fed Sacramento State University in California San Francisco Fed San Francisco Fed Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Supreme Court Switzerland Trade Balance UK Supreme Court US Federal Reserve Washington D.C. William Dudley World Economic Forum Mon, 16 Jan 2017 13:43:15 +0000 Tyler Durden 585571 at http://www.zerohedge.com Oil Slides After Saudis Suggest Early End To OPEC Deal http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/oil-slides-after-saudis-suggest-early-end-opec-deal <p>Following a brief spike overnight (as China intervened in its equity market), crude prices slipped lower, testing towards a $51 handle after <span>Saudi Arabia says <strong>OPEC is on track to wrap up its production curbs by the middle of the year</strong>, potentially leaving its<strong> aim of clearing a global oil glut unfinished</strong>.</span></p> <p>As Bloomberg reports, <span>OPEC and Russia won’t need to prolong output cuts beyond June because the agreed reductions will have already ended the oversupply in world crude markets, Saudi Minister of Energy and Industry<span>&nbsp;</span></span><span>Khalid Al-Falih</span><span><span>&nbsp;</span>said in Abu Dhabi on Monday. <strong>However, ending the deal by mid-year and restoring production would mean the surplus just starts building again, thwarting OPEC’s ambition of whittling down bloated oil inventories.</strong></span></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said that draining off a stockpile “overhang” of more than 300 million barrels -- enough to supply China for almost a month -- was the main aim of supply curbs agreed with Russia and other producers. Twenty-four nations signed up to a joint cutback of 1.8 million barrels a day on Dec. 10.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/13/20170116_saudi1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/13/20170116_saudi1.jpg" width="600" height="308" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>If they extend the deal for six months beyond its scheduled expiry in June, that surplus will be entirely eliminated by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on data from the International Energy Agency. If they don’t extend the deal, and restore output to previous levels, about two-thirds of that glut will remain in place.</p> </blockquote> <p><span><em><strong>“If the reduction is of such short duration, this will hardly be sufficient to balance the oil market,” </strong></em>said analysts at Commerzbank AG led by<span>&nbsp;</span></span><span>Eugen Weinberg</span><span><span>&nbsp;</span>in Frankfurt. <strong><em>“In this case the market participants who bet on rising prices will probably withdraw from the market, putting corresponding pressure on prices.”</em></strong></span></p> <p><span>And that is what we are seeing begin to occur on this illiquid US holiday trading day...<br /></span></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/13/20170116_saudi.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/01/13/20170116_saudi_0.jpg" width="600" height="363" /></a></p> <p><span><strong>When OPEC announced its original deal in Vienna, the group said it could be extended for another six months to “take into account prevailing market conditions and prospects.” </strong>Al-Falih said OPEC will reassess the situation when it meets again and the group’s members have said they’re will to extend the pact if necessary.</span></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1967" height="1189" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170116_saudi.jpg?1484572673" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/oil-slides-after-saudis-suggest-early-end-opec-deal#comments Abu Dhabi Business Cartels China Chronology of world oil market events Crude Energy crises Energy crisis Energy economics International Energy Agency Market Conditions Oil glut OPEC OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Petroleum Petroleum industry Petroleum politics Presidency of Jimmy Carter Saudi Arabia Mon, 16 Jan 2017 13:21:30 +0000 Tyler Durden 585570 at http://www.zerohedge.com China Warns Trump "It Will Take Off The Gloves" If He Continues To Provoke Beijing http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/china-warns-trump-it-will-take-gloves-if-he-continues-provoke-beijing <p>In the latest indication that China is becoming increasingly unsettled by Trump's relentless attacks on legacy diplomacy with China, and especially the "One China" policy, two leading state-run newspapers warned on Monday that Beijing will "<strong>take off the gloves</strong>" and take strong action if Trump continues to provoke Beijing over Taiwan once he assumes office. </p> <p>The reaction was provoke by Trump's latest US interview, in which he told the WSJ that the "One China" policy was up for negotiation. China's foreign ministry, in response, said "One China" was the foundation of China-U.S. ties and was non-negotiable.&nbsp; </p> <p>"If Trump is determined to use this gambit in taking office, a period of fierce, damaging interactions will be unavoidable, as Beijing will have no choice but to take off the gloves," the otherwise calm English-language China Daily said. It added that Beijing's relatively measured response to Trump's comments in the Wall Street Journal "can only come from a genuine, sincere wish that the less-than-desirable, yet by-and-large manageable, big picture of China-U.S. relations will not be derailed before Trump even enters office".</p> <p>But China should not count on the assumption that Trump's Taiwan moves are "a pre-inauguration bluff, and instead be prepared for him to continue backing his bet". "It may be costly. But it will prove a worthy price to pay to make the next U.S. president aware of the special sensitivity, and serious consequences of his Taiwan game," said the national daily.</p> <p>The far more fiery state-run nationalist tabloid, The Global Times, echoed the China Daily, saying Beijing would take "strong countermeasures" against Trump's attempt to "impair" the "One China" principle. </p> <p>"The Chinese mainland will be prompted to speed up Taiwan reunification and mercilessly combat those who advocate Taiwan's independence," the paper said in an editorial. </p> <p>The official statement, while less provocative, was just as terse: Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the United States was clearly aware of China's position on "One China". "Any person should understand that in this world there are certain things that cannot be traded or bought and sold," she told a daily news briefing. "The One China principle is the precondition and political basis for any country having relations with China." </p> <p>Hua added, "If anyone attempts to damage the One China principle or if they are under the illusion they can use this as a bargaining chip, they will be opposed by the Chinese government and people. "<strong>In the end it will be like lifting a rock to drop it on one's own feet," </strong>she concluded, without elaborating.</p> <p>Meanwhile, The Global Times ratcheted up its war rhetoric, saying Trump's endorsement of Taiwan was merely a ploy to further his administration's short term interests, adding: "Taiwan may be sacrificed as a result of this despicable strategy." </p> <p>Other joined in. "<strong>If you do not beat them until they are bloody and bruised, then they will not retreat," </strong>Yang Yizhou, deputy head of China's government-run All-China Federation of Taiwan Compatriots, told an academic meeting on cross-straits relations in Beijing on Saturday. Taiwan independence must "pay a cost" for every step forward taken, "we must use bloodstained facts to show them that the road is blocked," Yang said, according to a Monday report on the meeting by the official People's Daily Overseas Edition.</p> <p>Trump has yet to tweet a response, if any, this morning.</p> <p></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="800" height="421" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/trump%20china%203_1.jpg?1484571332" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/china-warns-trump-it-will-take-gloves-if-he-continues-provoke-beijing#comments All-China Federation Asia bargaining chip China China China's government China–United States relations Chinese Foreign Ministry Chinese government Cross-Strait relations Donald Trump presidential campaign Geography of Asia One-China policy Political positions of Donald Trump Politics of Taiwan Republics Taiwan Taiwan independence movement Wall Street Journal Mon, 16 Jan 2017 13:02:31 +0000 Tyler Durden 585569 at http://www.zerohedge.com South Korea Seeks Arrest Of Samsung Chief For Bribery, Embezzlement And Perjury http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/south-korea-seeks-arrest-samsung-chief-bribery-embezzlement-and-perjury <p>South Korea political crisis spilled over into the corporate sector overnight, when the country's special prosecutor on Monday sought a warrant to arrest the head of Samsung Group, the country's largest conglomerate, accusing him of paying multi-million dollar bribes to a friend of impeached President Park Geun-hye. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/jay%20lee.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/jay%20lee_0.jpg" width="500" height="360" /></a><br /><em>Samsung Electronics vice chairman Jay Y. Lee </em></p> <p>According to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-idUSKBN150079">Reuters</a>, investigators had grilled the head of Samsung, the world's biggest maker of smartphones, flat-screen TVs and memory chips, Jay Y. Lee for 22 straight hours last week as a suspect in a corruption scandal, which last month led to parliament impeaching president Park.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The special prosecutor's office accused Lee of paying bribes total 43 billion won ($36.42 million) to organizations linked to Choi Soon-sil, a friend of the president who is at the center of the scandal, in order to secure the 2015 merger of two affiliates and cement his control of the family business. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The 48-year-old Lee, who became the de facto head of the Samsung Group after his father, Lee Kun-hee, was incapacitated by a heart attack in 2014, was also accused of embezzlement and perjury, according to the prosecution's application for an arrest warrant.</p> </blockquote> <p>In a startling admission that in Korea the concept of "Too Big To Prosecute" does not hold sway, the special prosecutors' office told a media briefing that "in making this decision to seek an arrest warrant, <strong>determined that while the country's economic conditions are important, upholding justice takes precedence.</strong>" South Korea, an exporting powerhouse, is Asia's fourth-largest economy.</p> <p>Special prosecution spokesman Lee Kyu-chul added that prosecutors have evidence showing that Park and Choi shared profits made through bribery payments. Lee is due to appear on Wednesday morning at the Seoul central district court, which will decide whether to grant the arrest warrant. </p> <p>Meanwhile Samsung, whose companies generate $230 billion in revenue, <strong>equivalent to about 17 percent of South Korea's economy, </strong>rejected the accusation that Lee paid bribes. "It is difficult to understand the special prosecutors' decision," it said in an emailed statement.</p> <p>Prosecutors have long been looking into whether Samsung's support for foundations and a company backed by Choi was linked to the National Pension Service's 2015 decision to support a controversial $8 billion merger of Samsung C&amp;T Corp and Cheil Industries Inc. Samsung, which has acknowledged providing funds to the institutions, has repeatedly denied accusations of lobbying to push through the merger.</p> <p>"It is especially hard to accept the special prosecutor's assertion that there was improper request for a favor related to the merger or succession of control," it said on Monday.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The special prosecutor's office said in its indictment of Moon that Park, through her aides, ordered Moon to ensure the merger of the two Samsung companies succeeded. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Park, 64, remains in office but has been stripped of her powers while the Constitutional Court decides whether to make her the country's first democratically elected leader to be forced from office. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Park has denied wrongdoing but admitted to carelessness in her relationship with Choi, a friend for four decades. Choi, in jail as she undergoes criminal trial and also denies wrongdoing.</p> </blockquote> <p>On the news, shares of Samsung Electronics closed 2.14% lower, underperforming the 0.61% drop in the broader market. Investors say that while key Samsung businesses are run by professional CEOs and would not be hurt on an operational basis if Lee is arrested, his absence would slow bigger-picture decision-making. The Korea Employers Federation, a business lobby, said arresting Lee would undermine confidence both in Samsung and the country's economy, Asia's fourth-largest, and called the special prosecutor's probe "very regrettable."</p> <p>The proposed arrest is merely the latest in a long strink of corporate scandals to rock South Korea, and Samsung in particular. Jay Y. Lee's father Lee Kun-hee was himself handed a three-year suspended jail sentence in 2009 for tax evasion. He was later pardoned. Public opinion has in recent years grown less tolerant of leniency extended to the heads of conglomerates, or chaebols, for the sake of the economy.</p> <p>The Samsung crackdown is the latest fallout from a political crisis that has impacted South Korea, stemming from the impeachment of president Park in December. If the impeachment is upheld by the Constitutional Court, an election would be held in two months, with former U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon expected to be a candidate. Choi, in detention and on trial on charges of abuse of power and attempted fraud, again denied wrongdoing on Monday in an appearance at the Constitutional Court's impeachment trial. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="644" height="329" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/samsung%20teaser.jpg?1484570407" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/south-korea-seeks-arrest-samsung-chief-bribery-embezzlement-and-perjury#comments Business Business Chaebol Choi Constitutional Court Corruption Economy Economy of South Korea Korea Employers Federation Lee Jae-yong Lee Kun-hee memory chips National Pension Service Park Geun-hye Presidents of South Korea Reuters Samsung Samsung Electronics smartphones South Korean political scandal United Nations Mon, 16 Jan 2017 12:46:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 585568 at http://www.zerohedge.com Gold Lower Before Trump Presidency – Strong Gains Akin To After Obama Inauguration? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/gold-lower-trump-presidency-%E2%80%93-strong-gains-akin-after-obama-inauguration <p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-lower-trump-presidency-strong-gains-akin-obama-inauguration/">Gold Lower Before Trump Presidency – Strong Gains Akin To After Obama Inauguration</a></span></span></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold prices have had a good start to 2017 and has made gains in&nbsp;the majority of currencies, building on the strong gains seen in 2016. So far in 2017, gold is 3.5% higher in dollars, 2.3% higher in euros and 4% higher in sterling.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/01/gold-price-currencies.jpg"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/01/gold-price-currencies-1024x31.jpg" alt="gold-price-currencies" width="1024" height="31" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8564" /></a><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-lower-trump-presidency-strong-gains-akin-obama-inauguration/"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/01/Gold-Annual-Returns-Obama-1024x132.jpg" alt="gold-annual-returns-obama" width="1024" height="132" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-8557" /></a><strong>Gold Annual Returns During First Four Years Of Obama Presidency&nbsp;- Goldprice.org</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Increasing nerves regarding the Trump Presidency likely account for some of the gains. Although the fundamentals of the gold market remain strong even were Trump not becoming President of the United State of America.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">A backdrop of financial repression and global currency debasement involving ultra loose monetary policies and near negative interest rates, a push for&nbsp;<a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/cashless-society-risks-war-on-cash/">cashless society</a>, a still massively indebted U.S. and global economy and still very fragile banking systems all bodes well for gold prices in the coming years - not too mention positive supply demand fundamental that is&nbsp;<a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/peak-gold-globally-bullish-gold/">peak gold</a>.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Trump is icing on the cake in this regard. While it is always best to fade short term noise about breaking news and the latest market developments, ignoring Trump in the White House as an investor is very much a case of trying to ignore a giant white elephant in a very small room.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We should indeed ignore the short term noise of the Trump inauguration next week - although it is set to be compelling box office viewing! However, it would be imprudent to ignore the likely impact of four years of the Trump Presidency on markets and particularly the gold market. On Wednesday past,&nbsp;we had just a little taste of this when his press conference led to turmoil and massive volatility in markets and&nbsp;<a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-rallies-1207-trump-press-conference-shambles/">gold rising on safe haven demand to over $1,200 per ounce.</a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-rallies-1207-trump-press-conference-shambles/"><img src="http://bismannews.rrvnews.com/upload/items/image_1484183706_92463448.jpg" width="591" height="394" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" class="alignnone size-large" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Trump's extraordinary press conference this week highlighted the risks facing markets. Geo-political risk in terms of his ongoing war with U.S. intelligence agencies, increasing tensions with Russia, China, the EU, Mexico and other nations and the real risk of trade, currency and actual wars.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Warnings about the likely impact of the Trump Presidency&nbsp;on markets should be considered carefully - especially in the light of the "irrational exuberance" that continues to be seen on U.S. markets with 'Dow 20,000' a breadth away and valuations suggesting another massive bubble with all the risks that entails to pensions and investments.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Indeed, there is a strong argument for becoming more cautious and conservative and reducing allocations to risk assets such as stocks and bonds and increasing allocations to gold.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We believe that gold is likely to perform as well in the first four years of the Trump Presidency as it did in the first four years of the Obama Presidency. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns and all the usual caveats that apply in this regard. However, we believe that the over used "perfect storm" is brewing for gold and it will likely outperform risk assets in the coming years.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>So how did gold prices perform during the first four years of Obama's Presidency?</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">It is hard to believe but President Obama took his oath of office and made his inauguration address&nbsp;8 years ago next week – on January 20th, 2009.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><img src="http://goldprice.org/charts/history/gold-price-performance_x.png?1637738575" width="584" height="403" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" class="alignnone size-large" /></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold prices closed on Obama's inauguration day at $857.25 per ounce (and silver at $11.34 per ounce). Sentiment towards gold was poor as gold prices had "peaked" at near $1,000 per ounce in March 2008.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Subsequently gold had fallen as low as near $700 per ounce in late 2008, correcting lower after the very strong gains seen in the previous years and especially in 2007 &nbsp;and early 2008, at the outset of the global financial crisis.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">In dollar terms, gold had risen by 20%&nbsp;in 2005, by 23% in 2006 and by 31% in 2007. It began 2008 with further gains - rising from just below $900 per ounce to near $1,000 per ounce in early 2008, prior to the period of correction and consolidation in the rest of 2008.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">So gold&nbsp;had risen relentlessly and had more than doubled in value from near $450 per ounce at the start of 2005 to near $1,000 per ounce in March 2008. Most "experts" including Nouriel Roubini and Paul Krugman were out in force at this time, simplistically declaring gold a risky 'bubble' and discouraging investors from diversifying their portfolios and having an allocation to safe haven gold.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">There was also a consensus and great 'hope' that Obama would clean up Wall Street and put the heavily indebted U.S. economy on a more sustainable financial and economic path - something which never happened.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">It was against this backdrop that Obama came to power. Gold was unloved and derided by Wall Street and the financial pundits and languished at $857 per ounce (see chart).</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><img src="http://dzswc0o8s13dx.cloudfront.net/goldcore_bloomberg_chart2_22-01-13.png" width="607" height="250" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" class="alignnone size-large" /><em><strong>Gold in US Dollars – January 2009 to January 2010 (Bloomberg)</strong></em></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">One month later, gold had risen to $992.90/oz and silver to $14.44/oz. Thus, in just the 30 days subsequent to Obama's inauguration, gold surged nearly 16% and silver surged by over 27%.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Exactly 12 months later on January 20th, 2010, gold had risen to $1,111.05/oz for a gain of nearly 30% in the first year after Obama’s inauguration. In the following 12 months, silver had risen to $17.88/oz for a gain of 57.6% in the first year after President Obama’s inauguration.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">A similar performance in the coming month would see gold rise from $1,200/oz to $1,392/oz.<br />A similar performance in the coming year would see gold rise from $1,200/oz to $1,555/oz.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We caution that these returns subsequent to Obama’s first inauguration are interesting statistics and should not be used as a trading tool. In and of themselves solely they are somewhat&nbsp;meaningless.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Conclusion</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Past performance is no guarantee of future returns - especially over short time horizons. However, over the long term, history including market history does tend to, to paraphrase Marc Twain, if not repeat then at least rhyme. This is the case with monetary history - every single fiat currency has ultimately collapsed as have the economies using those fiat currencies.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Given the fact that the U.S. monetary and fiscal position is much worse now than it was 8 years ago - the taboo (for now) U.S. national debt has grown massively -&nbsp;it seems very likely that we will see similar gains for gold in the coming months and years.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">On January 20, 2009, when Obama was sworn in, the debt was $10.626 trillion. Today it's about to reach $20 trillion - at $19.957 trillion. Obama added an incredible $9 trillion to the national debt, more than any other President. Another inconvenient truth ignored by the same experts that continue to either ignore gold or not cover it in a balanced, fact, evidence based manner.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/01/gold-dollars-10-years.jpg"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/01/gold-dollars-10-years.jpg" alt="gold-dollars-10-years" width="530" height="321" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-8555" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We have long stated that we believe gold will reach a&nbsp;record inflation adjusted high over $2,500/oz and we see that as likely during the first four years of the Trump Presidency.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">However, gold's primary function is as a diversification, financial insurance and a hedge against geo-political, systemic and of course monetary risks - all of which abound as we head into the Trump years.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>KNOWLEDGE IS POWER</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For your perusal, below are in order of downloads our&nbsp;<span class="il">most</span>&nbsp;<span class="il">popular</span>&nbsp;<span class="il">guides</span>&nbsp;in 2016:</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/10-important-things-to-consider-before-you-buy-gold" target="_blank">10 Important Points To Consider Before You Buy Gold</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/7-real-risks-to-your-gold-ownership" target="_blank">7 Real Risks To Your Gold Ownership</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1w_xV830T-QYW2xLpdR5FZWPw0/*W3BmL471bqzPKW6738WW1h_fX80/5/f18dQhb0S5fw8YXN5qW7MwBwm6ghkRDW23z_k259Pnr2W2QltSP5P7KMHW5q9kQw8CtFrQW8pGbnV8t2xm_VTGDs98tzLxGVQBTLx5sN4V-W8w24Vd64Ql06W8mHqjh8l2jFPW63n21x8GfSCjW7KH4Jk1F6vVcW7p74gV6tClrrW58zYp91GmwJ3W7vPVHQ7w4nLlW2ZSLjD64QZb6W8rvBgv4CXKCBTc3K-3lj2tvW3blhRk10whSqW16k5MY8pH74GN5lVKW7-6vMXW5w5xfQ12pgxnVJFSg98bbw28W3pgnh_8pBLsdW5sG8Y98LnkmvW5mdBbY8sC2BqW5Ks-yG8DP2TMW5J1GCT5L---GW5StCMt5BMfNdW8Kkkgz10s2GzW67xBf1228cH4W91Zdbk4Pw1VkW2sbPxn1jd4h-W3B_yPK4Df7fhW3sP6lV3TH1FwV84rVz6PxM6vW42t4cv3r0lTDW54smjl2RqdpfW8kQbBd6_YGbmW3tbggT36hTLLF4QTh7QVTHMf6BGpz003" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="il">Guide</span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Switzerland</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1w_xV830T-QYW2xLpdR5FZWPw0/*W6VWlmV4mqd78W68mGR93Nv23F0/5/f18dQhb0S5fr8YXN5qW7MwBwm6ghkRDW23z_k259Pnr2W2QltSP5P7jh2W5q9kQw8CtFrQW8pGbnV8t2xm_VTGDs98tzLxGVQBTLx5sN4V-W8w24Vd64Ql06W8mHqjh8l2jFPW63n21x3-JX8CN7KH198JB95CW8HbRxP8j-gCZW55nSC91VJH71W4c2Rr97MPDNBW69NG1w6Pr4fRW18dLZ_4K4pLSMQC5z2PC2cVW3hTbmb9739CbW8m12lb4S6xk-W5Gny4z8z8b0mW8ljY8T4VCQfPW4xCSwY2wlZ5CW620JFv29rS9nW9c0kWW8m0QmNW6NcL2L3NrMNLV9Gvlx2ByY84W4wRSky3NpfRnN3KKD_GXNyHmW1l9Vpr6crHYqW7wV0mM4zQbGmN8csGDVD2JF5W7jWX1D3dNZPrW5Rm-P05yMb-MN31G36v215_BN1J7MYw_D_RtW7V4h9N3BWVXfW5p8dyW93Qb6DW1L_Sh07VDTBHW7PWGG28bjT4jV1dZTD6hTbBg103" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="il">Guide</span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Singapore</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1w_xV830T-QYW2xLpdR5FZWPw0/*W4-SjDF86l4SwW97PM3x41bJ_f0/5/f18dQhb0Sjv58XJ8yvW7MwBwm6ghkRDW23z_k259Pnr2W2QltSP6ZfZrKW5q9kQw8CtFrQW8pGbnV8t2xm_VTGDs98tzLvhW8yL0rW5Zg-y6W6WJ5Vx35sgHlW7tGbph5m1LQxW56VQQz5ZcGgnW8g0DGC5ZQNkmW964m896bFpbtW6R9vYT2z8ZTKW90G7th8S23M9N2yJF1WYT2jkW6P4lCX3WddQjW6Pkt_V62_rWMW4MM8m01VJrykW5lX8fq13bD4hW6dkdFB5m4bnmW2LMSXW83Kc4BW7pJqFC1ghBFyN8SzwlYrpVDjW56M3Ky6y4djlW1DVMB82t8dJgW7nG2cW8X2ngtW2N2GbP8Wxr0DW7HQLdC5N7Yr8W2cFrrR7sSStjW7Ky4Mv7p1qF1W6Xj9js76q8yYN4lBZ6F_8XRjW6t_Hvd8Ph58-W594T8v7kcp8TW7SQy461FndG3W3wVBXz6rN0dXW2LdjVl8kHnK7W2XC3kb87rhwQW8cCz_f6Xn1dZW42-3pg6v-Mt7N5-fWlWVMSHVVVmfDF11M3dy102" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="il">Guide</span>&nbsp;to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/10-important-things-to-consider-before-you-buy-gold" target="_blank"><img src="http://info.goldcore.com/hs-fs/hubfs/10_Important_Points_to_Consider_Before_Buying_Gold.jpg?t=1482496164303&amp;width=398&amp;name=10_Important_Points_to_Consider_Before_Buying_Gold.jpg" width="259" height="379" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Please&nbsp;share&nbsp;our research with&nbsp;family,&nbsp;friends&nbsp;and&nbsp;colleagues&nbsp;who&nbsp;you&nbsp;think would benefit from being informed by it.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Gold and Silver Bullion - News and&nbsp;Commentary</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://in.reuters.com/article/global-precious-idINL4N1F307K">Gold dips from seven-week high on dollar strength (Reuters.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-12/gold-surges-above-1-200-as-details-shy-trump-weighing-on-dollar">Gold Surges Above $1,200 as Details-Shy Trump Weighing on Dollar (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/09/european-elections-at-risk-to-aggressive-cyber-attack-threats-eu-security-commissioner.html">European elections at risk to aggressive cyber attack threats: EU security commissioner (CNBC.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-38418877">New 'Ring of Steel' planned for London Square Mile (BBC.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/italian-banking-crisis-moves-on-to-unicredit-s-13bn-cash-call-1.2934743">Italian banking crisis moves on to Unicredit’s €13bn cash call (IrishTimes.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/01/low-real-rates-to-spur-gold-demand.png" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" /></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-13/central-bank-bashing-makes-gold-only-asset-safe-from-meddling">Gold Only Safe Haven From Politicians Meddling and Bashing Central-Banks (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-look-now-gold-is-crushing-the-stock-market-in-2017-2017-01-12">Stocks are getting crushed by gold in 2017 (MarketWatch.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://moneyweek.com/you-can-get-inflation-going-anywhere-if-you-try-hard-enough/">You can get inflation anywhere if you try hard enough - Stepek (MoneyWeek.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBfrFIpnc-o&amp;feature=youtu.be">US Will Devalue Debt and Devalue Dollar - Rick Rule (Youtube.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.gata.org/node/17099">Gold swaps by BIS exploded in 2016 from nothing to record level (Gata.org)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/7-real-risks-to-your-gold-ownership" rel="attachment wp-att-5047"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/news/wp-content/uploads/sites/16/2016/03/7RealRisksBlogBanner.jpg" alt="7RealRisksBlogBanner" width="822" height="430" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" class="alignnone wp-image-5047" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Gold Prices (LBMA AM)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">13 Jan: USD 1,196.35, GBP 978.85 &amp; EUR 1,123.25 per ounce<br />12 Jan: USD 1,206.65, GBP 984.39 &amp; EUR 1,135.82 per ounce<br />11 Jan: USD 1,187.55, GBP 979.25 &amp; EUR 1,128.41 per ounce<br />10 Jan: USD 1,183.20, GBP 974.60 &amp; EUR 1,118.12 per ounce<br />09 Jan: USD 1,176.10, GBP 968.75 &amp; EUR 1,118.59 per ounce<br />06 Jan: USD 1,178.00, GBP 951.35 &amp; EUR 1,112.27 per ounce<br />05 Jan: USD 1,173.05, GBP 953.55 &amp; EUR 1,116.16 per ounce<br />04 Jan: USD 1,165.90, GBP 949.98 &amp; EUR 1,117.40 per ounce<br />03 Jan: USD 1,148.65, GBP 935.12 &amp; EUR 1,103.28 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Silver Prices (LBMA)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">13 Jan: USD 16.76, GBP 13.76 &amp; EUR 15.74 per ounce<br />12 Jan: USD 16.91, GBP 13.77 &amp; EUR 15.87 per ounce<br />11 Jan: USD 16.79, GBP 13.84 &amp; EUR 15.96 per ounce<br />10 Jan: USD 16.66, GBP 13.73 &amp; EUR 15.76 per ounce<br />09 Jan: USD 16.52, GBP 13.57 &amp; EUR 15.69 per ounce<br />06 Jan: USD 16.45, GBP 13.30 &amp; EUR 15.54 per ounce<br />05 Jan: USD 16.59, GBP 13.47 &amp; EUR 15.80 per ounce<br />04 Jan: USD 16.42, GBP 13.36 &amp; EUR 15.74 per ounce<br />03 Jan: USD 15.95, GBP 12.97 &amp; EUR 15.34 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><br />Recent Market Updates</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-rallies-1207-trump-press-conference-shambles/">-&nbsp;Gold Rallies To $1,207 After Trump Press Conference Shambles</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/prince-owned-land-gold-bars-worth-800000/">-&nbsp;Prince Owned Land and Gold Bars Worth $800,000</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-price-gbp-4-brexit-uk-risks/">-&nbsp;Gold Price In GBP Up 4% On Brexit and UK Risks</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/2016-past-2017-prologue/">-&nbsp;2016 Past is 2017 Prologue</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-gains-currencies-2016-9-usd-13-eur-surges-31-5-gbp-2/">-&nbsp;Gold Gains In All Currencies In 2016 – 9% In USD, 13% In EUR and Surges 31.5% In GBP</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/trumps-twitter-140-characters-push-gold-1600oz-2017/">-&nbsp;Trump’s Twitter “140 Characters” To Push Gold To $1,600/oz in 2017?</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/2017-year-banana-skin/">-&nbsp;2017 – The Year of Banana Skin</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/us-five-must-gold-see-charts-gold-miners-running-gold/">-&nbsp;US: Five Must Gold See Charts – Gold Miners Are “Running Out” of Gold</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/royal-mint-cme-make-mint-blockchain/">-&nbsp;Royal Mint And CME Make A Mint On The Blockchain?</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/china-gold-precious-metals-summit-2016-goldcore-presentation/">-&nbsp;China Gold and Precious Metals Summit 2016 – GoldCore Presentation</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/trumpenstein-who-created-him-and-why/">-&nbsp;Trumpenstein ! Who Created Him and Why?</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/bail-ins-coming-italy-worlds-oldest-bank-survival-rests-savers/">-&nbsp;Bail-Ins Coming? World’s Oldest Bank “Survival Rests On Savers”</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/feds-fool-silver-suppression-euro-contagion-2017/">-&nbsp;Fed’s “Fool Me…”, Silver Suppression, Euro Contagion In 2017?</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com">www.GoldCore.com</a></strong></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/gold-lower-trump-presidency-%E2%80%93-strong-gains-akin-after-obama-inauguration#comments BIS China Conservatism in the United States Donald Trump Dow 20 Economy European Union Finance Global Economy Gold Gold as an investment Gold coin Hedge Investment Irrational Exuberance Krugman Mexico Money National Debt Nouriel Nouriel Roubini Paul Krugman Precious Metals Precious metals President Obama Reuters Silver Silver as an investment Sovereigns Switzerland Twitter Twitter U.S. intelligence US Federal Reserve Volatility White House White House Mon, 16 Jan 2017 12:44:08 +0000 GoldCore 585567 at http://www.zerohedge.com Ray-Ban Maker Luxottica To Merge With French Esilor, Creating $49 Billion Eyewear Giant http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/ray-ban-maker-luxottica-merge-french-esilor-creating-49-billion-eyewear-giant <p>The US may be closed, but nothing stands in the way of merger Monday, which today struck in Europe with the announcement that Italy's Ray-Ban maker, Luxottica, and France's lens company Essilor agreed to a €46 billion ($49 billion) merger to create a global eyewear giant with annual revenue of more than €15 billion. </p> <p>The deal, one of Europe's largest cross-border tie-ups, brings together Luxottica, the world's top spectacles maker with brands such as Oakley and Ray-Ban, with Essilor, the world's leading manufacturer of ophthalmic lenses. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/luxotticca.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/01/15/luxotticca_0.jpg" width="500" height="334" /></a></p> <p>"Finally ... two products which are naturally complementary -- namely frames and lenses -- will be designed, manufactured and distributed under the same roof," Luxottica's 81-year-old founder Leonardo Del Vecchio said in a statement.</p> <p>Del Vecchio, who returned to the helm of Luxottica two years ago after taking a back seat for the previous decade, will be CEO and executive chairman of the merged EssilorLuxottica, which will be listed in Paris. Del Vecchio will take a stake of between 31% and 38% in the merged group through his family holding Delfin, becoming the biggest shareholder. Voting rights will be capped at 31 percent. Delfin will contribute its 62 percent stake in Luxottica at a ratio of 1 share in the Italian group for every 0.461 Essilor shares. The French lens maker, a long-time supplier to the Italian group, will launch a mandatory exchange offer on all remaining Luxottica shares at the same ratio, with the aim of delisting Luxottica's shares.</p> <p>Essilor Chairman and CEO Hubert Sagnieres will be executive vice-chairman and deputy CEO, with the same powers as the chairman and CEO.</p> <p>Following their merger the two companies will be better positioned to take advantage of strong demand in a $95 billion market expected to achieve continued growth because of an aging global population and increasing awareness about eye care in Asia and Latin America. The companies said the deal is expected to bring annual revenue benefits and cost savings in the range of 400 million euros to 600 million euros in the medium term.</p> <p>In a call with journalists on Monday, Sagnieres said the companies' combined operations will be able to offer a much faster service to their customers. </p> <p>Today's announcement was years in the making, as Luxottica and Essilor, which have a market value of about 24 billion euros and 22 billion euros respectively, had explored a possible tie-up a few years ago <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-essilor-m-a-luxottica-group-idUSKBN14Z110">according to Reuters</a>. Luxottica said in September 2014 that discussions had taken place in 2013 but were dropped for a number of reasons, including shareholding governance issues. The second attempt was luckier.</p> <p>Ultimately, the deal appears to have been the natural outcome of little organic growth, fast management turnover, and concerns about shareholder upside. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>A year ago Luxottica announced the departure of its third chief executive in 17 months when Adil Mehboob-Khan, a former Procter &amp; Gamble executive, stepped down and Del Vecchio tightened his grip on the group by taking on executive powers. Long-standing CEO Andrea Guerra quit in 2014 after a rift with Del Vecchio. His successor, Enrico Cavatorta, left only six weeks into the job, also because of differences with Del Vecchio. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Since taking the lead, Del Vecchio has stepped up investments to boost Luxottica's retail network and expanded its lens manufacturing business. However, revenue and profit growth have slowed in a tough U.S. market that contributes 59 percent of Luxottica's revenue while Del Vecchio has sought to increase control over pricing by limiting online discounts.</p> </blockquote> <p>The companies expect rapid growth in the global eyewear market, saying that at least 2.5 billion people in the world still suffer from uncorrected vision problems. Luxottica has been dogged by management upheaval in recent years, raising questions over Del Vecchio's succession plans and strategy. Some insiders have said a merger could help settle such issues.</p> <p></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1280" height="701" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/lux%20merger.jpg?1484569122" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-16/ray-ban-maker-luxottica-merge-french-esilor-creating-49-billion-eyewear-giant#comments Andrea Guerra Business Clothing Economy Essilor Essilor Eyewear Hubert Sagnières Latin America Leonardo Del Vecchio Luxottica Luxury brands Oakley, Inc. Ray-Ban Reuters Sunglasses Mon, 16 Jan 2017 12:21:18 +0000 Tyler Durden 585566 at http://www.zerohedge.com