http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/etf_headlines/ETF-in-Focus--EWJ-May-23.html en UMich Beats But Warns A Drop Is Imminent http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/umich-beats-warns-drop-imminent <p>The University of Michigan Sentiment survey beat expectations with its preliminary August print (97.6 vs 94.0 exp) driven by a <strong>massive spike in 'hope' as currenct conditions slump to their weakest since Nov 2016</strong>.</p> <p>How long will that 'hope' spike last?</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_umich.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_umich_0.jpg" width="600" height="318" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As UMich details, <strong>half of all consumers in each of the last three Michigan surveys reported that their finances had recently improved, the best reading since 2000, </strong>the report showed. Americans were also upbeat about their financial prospects in the year ahead.<strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>However, while noting that there were <strong>too few interviews were conducted following Charlottesville to assess how much it will weaken consumers' economic assessment</strong>, UMich goes on to warn...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>The fallout is likely to reverse the improvement in economic expectations recorded across all political affiliations in early August. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Moreover, the Charlottesville aftermath is <strong>more likely to weaken the economic expectations of Republicans, since prospects for Trump's economic policy agenda have diminished.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Nonetheless, the <strong>partisan difference between the optimism of Republicans and the pessimism of Democrats is still likely to persist, </strong>with Independents remaining as the bellwether group. At this point, the data continue to indicate a gain of 2.4% in personal consumption expenditures in 2017.</p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1180" height="625" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170818_umich.jpg?1503065204" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/umich-beats-warns-drop-imminent#comments Charlottesville, Virginia Donald Trump Emotions Epistemology Michigan Motivation Optimism Personal Consumption Pessimism Philosophy Philosophy of life Politics Politics of the United States Psychology Rational expectations Republican Party Self the University of Michigan University Of Michigan Fri, 18 Aug 2017 14:08:41 +0000 Tyler Durden 601912 at http://www.zerohedge.com Stock/Bond Ratio could breakdown here, says Joe Friday http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/stockbond-ratio-could-breakdown-here-says-joe-friday <p><img src="https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/joe-friday-pic.jpg" style="user-select: none; background-position: 0px 0px, 10px 10px; background-size: 20px 20px; background-image: linear-gradient(45deg, #eeeeee 25%, transparent 25%, transparent 75%, #eeeeee 75%, #eeeeee 100%), linear-gradient(45deg, #eeeeee 25%, white 25%, white 75%, #eeeeee 75%, #eeeeee 100%); display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></p> <p><span style="color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">Below looks at the Stock/Bond ratio, which is created by using the S&amp;P 500 and Zero Coupon Bond ETF&nbsp;</span><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZROZ?p=ZROZ" style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: #2ea3f2; outline: 0px; font-size: 14px; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px;">(ZROZ)</span></a><span style="color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">. The chart below looks at the price action over the past three years. Since the highs back in 2014, the ratio for the most part has created a horizontal channel, chopping back and forth.</span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/joe-friday-stock-bond-ratio-testing-important-rising-support-aug-18.jpg" target="_blank" title="Stock/Bond Ratio could breakdown here, says Joe Friday chris kimble post"><img src="https://kimblechartingsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/joe-friday-stock-bond-ratio-testing-important-rising-support-aug-18.jpg" alt="zroz zero coupon bond, chris kimble post" title="Stock/Bond Ratio could breakdown here, says Joe Friday chris kimble post" width="800" style="user-select: none; background-position: 0px 0px, 10px 10px; background-size: 20px 20px; background-image: linear-gradient(45deg, #eeeeee 25%, transparent 25%, transparent 75%, #eeeeee 75%, #eeeeee 100%), linear-gradient(45deg, #eeeeee 25%, white 25%, white 75%, #eeeeee 75%, #eeeeee 100%); display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" /></a></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px; color: #0000ff;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px;">CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE</span></span></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">The ratio hit the 2014 highs earlier this year at (1), which in time could reflect that a double top took place. Right now it is way too early to confirm this. Since hitting 2014 highs at (1) the ratio has been a little soft, nothing dramatic for sure.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;">Three weeks ago the ratio tested lower highs again at (2), where it created a small bearish reversal pattern and then started to turn a little lower. This week the ratio so far has created a sizable bearish reversal pattern (bearish wick), reflecting weakness in stocks and strength in bonds</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; font-size: 14px; color: #303030; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: bold; outline: 0px; background: 0px 0px;">Joe Friday Just The Facts</span>– Ratio is testing 1-year rising support this week and so far support is support until broken. If support would give way, could suggest further weakness in stocks and relative strength in bonds.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding-bottom: 1em; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: &quot;Open Sans&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; background-image: initial; background-position: 0px 0px; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; outline: 0px; color: #303030;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13.008px; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: #0000ff;">from Kimble Charting Solutions. &nbsp;We strive to produce concise, timely and actionable chart pattern analysis to save people time, improve your decision-making and results</strong></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; 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font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.3; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; color: #303030;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><br /></strong></span></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-blog"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_blog" width="1294" height="673" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user182769/imageroot/joe-friday-stock-bond-ratio-testing-important-rising-support-aug-18.jpg?1503065083" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/stockbond-ratio-could-breakdown-here-says-joe-friday#comments Behavioral finance Bond Business Economy Finance Financial markets Market sentiment Money Price Action Price action trading S&P 500 Stock market Technical analysis Fri, 18 Aug 2017 14:05:56 +0000 kimblecharting 601911 at http://www.zerohedge.com Sell US, Buy Japan? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/sell-us-buy-japan <p><em><a href="http://themacrotourist.com//macro/sell-us-buy-japan">Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,</a></em></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_maCRO.jpg"><img height="430" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_maCRO_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p><strong>With the gong show occurring in Washington, it&rsquo;s amazing anyone has the courage to write a blue ticket for any American assets.</strong> But we have to remember that the big long term money is slow moving. Implementing an asset shift is not something decided on a whim following one of President Trump&rsquo;s tweets.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/GongAug1717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/GongAug1717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/GongAug1717.png" style="width: 600px; height: 277px;" /></a></p> <p>As summer comes to an end, and investment committees meet in early September, <strong>I don&rsquo;t see how at the margin, America doesn&rsquo;t get a downgrade from asset allocators throughout the world. </strong>The simple fact is that the much hyped Trump optimism has been sorely misplaced. He hasn&rsquo;t accomplish any of his promised goals, and the recent infighting makes any progress increasingly unlikely. I don&rsquo;t want to make any political judgements, I would rather just concentrate on what the chaos means to the market. Infrastructure, tax cuts - the chances of a transformative piece of legislation being passed - out the window. Trump&rsquo;s supposed superb business acumen - if it ever truly existed, also vanished. And we haven&rsquo;t even dealt with the potential of a debt ceiling disaster. It&rsquo;s a complete shit show, and to think money managers will be standing at the door ready to invest in America is foolish. Long term money is overweight US assets, so the recent disorder will cause some serious trimming of American securities.</p> <p><strong>Now don&rsquo;t mistake my analysis as an &ldquo;end of the world - we are about to collapse&rdquo; doomsday call.</strong> I just think it might be a good time to think about selling some US names, and maybe have a look at some other equity markets.</p> <p><strong>I am going to toss an idea out there that is sure to gather a lot of cynical smirks, but hear me out.</strong> The Federal Reserve is desperately trying to be the first Central Bank to actually shrink their balance sheet after an extensive quantitative easing program. At the same time, the ECB has been preparing the market for a tapering of their QE program. But do you know who is still balls to the wall printing? The Bank of Japan.</p> <p><strong>Abeconomics is still in full force. </strong>The Bank of Japan is still expanding their balance sheet like mad. And although many pundits are skeptical of Prime Minister Abe&rsquo;s chances of being re-elected in the upcoming elections, and see nothing but risks, I am not as pessimistic.</p> <p>I don&rsquo;t think the Japanese people will reverse Abeconomics. Sure, the hedge fund gurus will all tell you what a disaster it&rsquo;s being, but I just don&rsquo;t see it.</p> <p>Have a look at Japan&rsquo;s nominal GDP.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/JapanGDPAug1717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/JapanGDPAug1717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/JapanGDPAug1717.png" style="width: 600px; height: 444px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>This is a chart of GDP for Pete&rsquo;s sake. It isn&rsquo;t supposed to go sideways for a decade and then head downward from there. That sort of limited growth is a disaster for an economy. No wonder Prime Minister Abe was elected with the mandate to implement radical changes. They were needed.</strong></p> <p>And yeah, I get it. This was at the cost of a tremendous increase in debt. I don&rsquo;t believe for one second that this debt will repaid in real terms, but let&rsquo;s face it, I don&rsquo;t think that much of the developed world governments&rsquo; debts will ever be money good (at least not in real terms). You can sit around and bemoan the absurdity of the situation, or you can accept that Central Banks will keep printing until the bond market takes the keys away (as my favourite skeptic Bill Fleckenstein likes to say). Right now there are zero signs that bond markets are prepared to revolt, so why anyone thinks the printing will stop is beyond me.</p> <p>And no one is more all-in on extreme monetary easing than Japan. There is no going back. Japan needs to keep printing until their economy reaches escape velocity, otherwise they will fall back into their deflationary balance sheet recession. Although Western market strategists haven&rsquo;t accepted this fact, the Japanese have.</p> <p><strong>Rightly or wrongly, Abeconomics will continue until the Japanese economy explodes in an incendiary inflationary fireball. They are the least likely to take their foot off the gas, so why not join them instead of fighting?</strong></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/BoJTotalAug1717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/BoJTotalAug1717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/BoJTotalAug1717.png" style="width: 600px; height: 444px;" /></a></p> <p>I am going to cheat a little, but I couldn&rsquo;t help it.<strong> Have a look at this long term chart of the Japanese Nikkei Stock Index.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/NikkeiAug1717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/NikkeiAug1717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/NikkeiAug1717.png" style="width: 600px; height: 444px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>It&rsquo;s not really fair as the 1980&rsquo;s bubble was so egregious, it makes the recent rise seem piddly.</strong></p> <p>Part of the BoJ&rsquo;s Quantitative Easing program is buying equity ETFs. I am sure you have seen all the frantic warnings about how the BoJ owns X% of the ETFs outstanding. Well, this argument is disingenuous as it is massively dependent on the popularity of Japanese ETFs. If there is little outside investor interest in owning equities in ETF form, then the percentage of ETFs that the BoJ owns will be higher. What is more appropriate is to examine the percentage of the market cap of the underlying equities that the BoJ owns. And by that measure, it is quite less disturbing.</p> <p><strong>Regardless, given the BoJ&rsquo;s buying, I expected the larger cap Japanese equities to be outperforming. After all, they are the biggest beneficiaries of the balance sheet expansion.</strong></p> <p><u><strong>However, much to my surprise, this is not the case. </strong></u>Here are the total returns for the Nikkei (large cap), the TOPIX (broad based), the MOTHERS (small cap) and finally, the JOF (US listed small cap fund - denominated in Yen to keep it fair) since the introduction of Abeconomics.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/TotalReturnAug1717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/TotalReturnAug1717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/TotalReturnAug1717.png" style="width: 600px; height: 444px;" /></a></p> <p>As you can see, the Nikkei and TOPIX both returned approximately 12.5%, but the MOTHERS and the JOF were both north of 15%.</p> <p><strong>The BoJ isn&rsquo;t buying small cap stocks, yet the small caps are outperforming. Maybe the Japanese economy is doing better than most strategists believe.</strong></p> <p>If you are interested in playing this small cap sector of the Japanese equity market, have a look at JOF. <strong>It is a small cap fund that at one point traded at a premium, but with the apathy for all things Japanese, has drifted down to a discount.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/JOFAug1717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/JOFAug1717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/JOFAug1717.png" style="width: 600px; height: 444px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>I can already hear the cries of disdain of how I am buying the country whose long term financial prospects are the dimmest.</strong> Yeah, yeah, I know. Japan&rsquo;s demographics are terrible. Their debt to GDP is mind numbingly large. It certainly appears as if their ability to grow is hampered by many handicaps.</p> <p>But since when have fundamentals mattered? Everyone complains that Central Banks have made a mockery of markets, but then they spend their time fading them. Why not just pick the most aggressive Central Bank and go with it?</p> <p><u><strong><em>And what better time to jump aboard the Japanese monetary madness than when the bloom has come off the US rose?</em></strong></u></p> <p>But wait&hellip; Doesn&rsquo;t part of the recent problems with the US have to do with North Korea? And won&rsquo;t that be bad for Japan? Yup - you betcha. War in Korea would definitely not be bullish for Japan.</p> <p><u><strong>Yet I take comfort in that my favourite contrary indicator</strong></u> (no, not Gartman) has been forecasting war for quite some time. George Friedman, formerly from Stratfor, has been predicting that the US would be headed to war with North Korea since this spring. Here&rsquo;s George giving <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jePe7mCLK8s">an interview where he explains his views</a>. And if you want more, here is a <a href="https://geopoliticalfutures.com/north-korea-stares-abyss/">piece he wrote outlining his position</a>. Sure sounds scary, huh?</p> <p><strong>Well, <a href="http://themacrotourist.com/macro/maybe-gartman-is-right-this-time">I have learned my lesson and will not be caught again listening to George</a>. In fact, I think he is one of the best fades on the board.</strong></p> <p><em><strong>Don&rsquo;t believe me? Well, maybe you should go read his book - it seems especially appropriate given that I am discussing going long Japan.</strong></em></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/WarOct1216.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/WarOct1216.png" height="700" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/WarOct1216.png" width="600" /></a></p> <p><u><strong>I hate to admit it, but Steve Bannon&rsquo;s recent comments about North Korea made a whole lot more sense.</strong></u></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Contrary to Trump&rsquo;s threat of fire and fury, Bannon said: &ldquo;There&rsquo;s no military solution [to North Korea&rsquo;s nuclear threats], forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don&rsquo;t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don&rsquo;t know what you&rsquo;re talking about, there&rsquo;s no military solution here, they got us.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>My guess is that Trump&rsquo;s bluster about North Korea will prove just as effective as his boasts about passing a yuuuuge health care bill. It&rsquo;s tough to take this view, as I will look like an idiot if I am wrong, but I think the correct bet is to assume the North Korea situation is just two large leashed dogs barking at each other.</p> <p><strong>The US is not going to war with the North Koreans, but the American government is a mess, and chances are that Trump is now a lame duck President.</strong> Little will happen, and at the margin, investors will quietly head for the exit. <strong>Whereas the US seemed to have an incessant bid over the past couple of quarters, I suspect that will change to loads of overhead supply ready to plug any decent rally.</strong></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><strong>I was hesitant to write this piece today because US stocks had such a terrible day yesterday. And although I am medium term bearish on American risk assets, from a short term perspective, we are due for a bounce.</strong></p> <p>Over the years I have learned the hard way about getting bearish on stocks after big down days. And I stumbled upon this great method of stopping from getting full blown bearish into the hole.</p> <p>If you watch the Bollinger Band of the QQQ ETF, and change the default settings to a length of 10 and a standard deviation of 1.5, <strong>I have found that any day that the ETF closes below the bottom part of the band, it is time to cover all your shorts, and even think about getting long.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/QQQAug1717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/QQQAug1717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/08/QQQAug1717.png" style="width: 600px; height: 460px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>I will write this strategy up properly sometime in the future, but I wanted you to know, it triggered last night (after triggering last week when many pundits got wildly bearish).</strong> Click on the chart above and have a look more closely at the trading. The days when it closes below the band, you don&rsquo;t want to be getting bearish. Trust me that the days in the past where it has triggered have felt awful. If you were trading on emotion, you would be hitting bids all over the place. But I guess that is why it works (most of the time). Now maybe this time it will be wrong. I have learned to never say never. Yet I think getting bearish in here is the wrong bet from a short term trading perspective.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1179" height="612" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170818_japan.jpg?1503063899" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/sell-us-buy-japan#comments American government Balance Sheet Recession Bank of Japan Bank of Japan Bank of Japan Bond Central Banks Debt Ceiling Debt-to-GDP ratio default Demographics Economic policy Economy Economy of Japan Equity Markets European Central Bank Federal Reserve Inflation Japan Jof Macroeconomics Monetary policy Money Nikkei Nikkei 225 Nominal GDP North Korea Quantitative Easing Quantitative easing Recession Topix TOPIX US Federal Reserve Yen Fri, 18 Aug 2017 13:55:29 +0000 Tyler Durden 601909 at http://www.zerohedge.com BofA: "This Is The Key Risk-Off Signal" Ahead Of This Autumn's "Big Fall" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/bofa-key-risk-signal-ahead-autumns-big-fall <p>One month ago, BofA's chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett predicted that the "<strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-13/bofa-most-dangerous-moment-markets-will-come-3-or-4-months">most dangerous moment for markets will come in 3 or 4 months</a></strong>." So now that we are between 25% and 33% closer to said "moment", what does Hartnett think now? Perhaps not surprisingly, in a note released on Friday, the Bank of America analyst writes that with a surge in risk off flows, a "<strong>more imminent Aug/Sept risk-off trade" </strong>is looking plausible <strong>"if poor politics shows up in consumer confidence, US dollar rises despite lower UST yields and further drop in US presidential approval ratings</strong>" <strong>compounded by high yield credit spreads gapping toward 500bps and ending tech leadership reversal.</strong></p> <p>In short, the "humpty-dumpty" trade that Hartnett has been describing ever since he coined the "Icarus rally" term earlier in the year, is "staring to wobble" <strong>despite - as he calculates - the $1.69 trillion in central bank purchases YTD</strong>. Some of the main factors he lists why BofA, like JPM previously, is starting to tiptoe to the exits, are the following:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Risk-off flows: </strong>There were $1.3bn weekly outflow from equities, $3.5bn into bonds, $0.5bn into gold</li> <li><strong>North Korea</strong>: outflows clustered in "fire &amp; fury" Thurs/Fri/Mon period; <em>but North Korea redemptions ($7.4bn equity outflow) not particularly large </em>(larger 3-day outflow in April)</li> <li><strong>High Yield outflows: </strong>biggest HY bond fund outflows in almost 6 months ($2.3bn); <strong>HY spreads jumped 36bps last week from 364bps to 400bps</strong></li> <li><strong>Emerging Market outflows: </strong>1st EM equity and debt outflows in almost 6 months ($1.7bn); coincides with bounce in oversold USD (EM reverse-correlated with DXY)</li> </ul> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/EPFR%20em%20outflows.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/EPFR%20em%20outflows_0.jpg" width="500" height="378" /></a></p> <ul> <li><strong>BofAML Bull &amp; Bear indicator drops</strong>: HY &amp; EM outflows + more defensive hedge fund positioning via futures + Aug FMS cash flat at 4.9% = BB indicator drops from 7.7 to 7.2; no "sell signal" triggered but institutional sentiment on risk assets has been bullish, e.g. BofAML Aug FMS showed "Goldilocks" macro view at record high</li> <li><strong>Private clients increase cash: </strong>BofAML GWIM allocation to cash rising to 10.6% in Aug, on course for 1st MoM increase this year, albeit from record lows (Chart 4)</li> </ul> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/private%20clients.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/private%20clients_0.jpg" width="500" height="346" /></a></p> <p>It's not all doom and gloom: there are two possible summer and fall optimistic, i.e. "Icarus" scenarios,</p> <ul> <li><strong>Summer Icarus</strong>: dovish CB policy (CB's buying of financial assets YTD now up to $1.69tn) + 12.9% global EPS growth (fastest since 2010 - Chart 2) best rationale for ongoing Icarus trade (targets remain SPX 2630, CCMP 6666, ACWI 510); Fed will reduce balance sheet in Sept but Fed so dovish that old market adage "buy the first rate hike, sell the penultimate rate hike" new adage may be replaced with "buy the first QT, sell the penultimate QT" (QT = "Quantitative Tightening")</li> </ul> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/bofa%20eps%20on%20pace.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/bofa%20eps%20on%20pace_0.jpg" width="500" height="379" /></a></p> <p>And then there are the bearish outcome, and why the in addition to an autumn "humpty-dumpty" trade (see below), a summer one is also looking more imminent, <strong>and could come as soon as this month:</strong> </p> <ul> <li><strong>Autumn Humpty-Dumpty</strong>: wider credit spreads and EPS inflection point our favorite catalysts for narrative shift from Goldilocks to Humpty-Dumpty (i.e. big fall in markets) in autumn</li> <li><strong>Summer Humpty-Dumpty: </strong>more imminent Aug/Sept risk-off trade plausible if a. growing geopolitical/political/tax reform volatility shows up in weaker Aug US consumer confidence, EU/Japan business confidence; US high yield credit spreads (393bps today) gap further toward 500bps; d. tech leadership shows fatigue (SOX, DJECOM, EMQQITR, IBOTZ all roll over hard)</li> </ul> <p>As for the key catalyst to time the big fall, i.e. "<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>the important risk off signal"</strong></span>, Hartnet proposes to just keep an eye on the dollar: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>US dollar starts rising on risk-aversion, i.e. <strong>despite lower UST yields and further drop in US presidential approval ratings </strong>(dollar correlated with politics YTD); </p> </blockquote> <p>In other words, once the US dollar start rising rapidly despite the ongoing chaos in Washington, sliding Trump approval rating and lower TSY yields, it will be a clear indication of capital flight into the US (accelerating unwind of this year's EM trades), which would then rapidly lead to something much uglier. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/risk%20off%20signal.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/risk%20off%20signal_0.jpg" width="500" height="298" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="734" height="438" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/risk%20off%20signal.jpg?1503063178" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/bofa-key-risk-signal-ahead-autumns-big-fall#comments Bank of America Bank of America Banking Bond Bond Business Consumer Confidence Credit Economy European Union Finance Goldilocks Hedge High Yield High-yield debt Humpty Dumpty Japan Money North Korea ratings Riddles United States housing bubble US Federal Reserve Volatility Yield spread Fri, 18 Aug 2017 13:37:57 +0000 Tyler Durden 601908 at http://www.zerohedge.com Gold Spikes Above $1300, Overtakes Dow Year-To-Date http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/gold-spikes-above-1300-usdjpy-tumbles <p><strong>For the first time since early June, Gold has just broken back above $1300, </strong>continuing to mirror the ebbs and flows of USDJPY (which just snapped below 109.00).</p> <p><strong><em>Is 3rd time the charm?</em></strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_gold.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_gold_0.jpg" width="600" height="256" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Gold is now outperforming The Dow year-to-date...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_gold1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_gold1_0.jpg" width="600" height="309" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="3140" height="1342" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170818_gold.jpg?1503062374" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/gold-spikes-above-1300-usdjpy-tumbles#comments Atomic physics Dow Gold Matter Mineralogy Mirror Fri, 18 Aug 2017 13:22:26 +0000 Tyler Durden 601906 at http://www.zerohedge.com Are Profit And Healthcare Incompatible? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/are-profit-and-healthcare-incompatible <p><a href="http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2017/08/are-profit-and-healthcare-incompatible.html"><em>Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,</em></a></p> <p><em>The only way to systemically lower costs is to make prevention and transparency the top priorities. </em></p> <p><strong>As I have been noting for a decade, the broken U.S. healthcare system will bankrupt the nation all by itself.</strong> We all know the basic facts: the system delivers uneven results in terms of improving health and life expectancy while costing two or three times more per person compared to our advanced-economy global competitors.</p> <p><a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/blogjun08/healthcare6-08.html" target="resource"> U.S. Lifestyle + &quot;Healthcare&quot; = Bankruptcy</a> (June 19, 2008)</p> <p><a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar11/sickcare-will-bankrupt-US3-11.html" target="resource"> Sickcare Will Bankrupt the Nation--And Soon</a> (March 21, 2011)</p> <p><a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay15/healthcare-doom5-15.html" target="resource"> How Healthcare Is Dooming the U.S. Economy (Three Charts)</a> (May 2015)</p> <p><a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept16/healthcare-bankrupt9-16.html" target="resource"> You Want to Fix the Economy? Then First Fix Healthcare</a> (September 29, 2016)</p> <p><strong>This chart says it all:</strong> the global outlier in low life expectancy and exorbitant cost is the U.S.</p> <p><img align="middle" border="0" class="wide" src="http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/us-healthcare-system8-17.jpg" /></p> <p><strong>The profit motive is supposed to lower costs, not increase them.</strong> In the idealized model of a completely free market, the profit motive is supposed to lower costs as customers are free to choose the best product/service for the lowest price.</p> <p><strong>In U.S. healthcare, the profits are stupendous, yet the costs are even more stupendous.</strong> Rather than lower costs, the U.S. system of for-profit healthcare has sent costs spiraling into the stratosphere, to the point that the system&#39;s costs are threatening to bankrupt the government and the nation.</p> <p><strong>Why is this so? Karl Marx provided the answer in the 19th century.</strong> In the idealized model of free-market capitalism, those who provide superior services for the lowest price reap more profit than their less agile/productive competitors.</p> <p><strong>But as Marx observed, in real-world capitalism, open competition drives profits to zero.</strong> Every attempt to gain a competitive advantage in price increases supply and further commoditizes the product/service. This dynamic pushes prices down to the point that nobody can make a profit until competitors are driven out of business and a cartel or monopoly secures the market and controls supply, price and profit.</p> <p><strong>The most profitable structures in real-world capitalism are monopolies or cartels-- which is precisely what characterizes U.S. healthcare.</strong> The only way to maximize profits is to ruthlessly eliminate competition in the marketplace--which is exactly how the U.S. healthcare system operates: the pharmaceutical industry is a cartel, hospital chains are a cartel, insurance companies are a cartel, and so on.</p> <p><strong>In the real world of state-cartel-capitalism, competition is eliminated so cartels can maximize profits.</strong></p> <p>Do-gooders are always claiming that the system could be fixed by re-introducing competition-- this was the core idea behind Obamacare&#39;s insurance exchanges--but the do-gooders are blind to the core dynamic of state-cartel-capitalism, which is <strong>cartels own the machinery of governance via lobbying and campaign contributions. The state creates and protects the cartels, period.</strong></p> <p>In state-cartel-capitalism, there is no way to maintain real competition, as the cartels instruct the state to protect their monopolies/cartels. State reformers can try all sorts of complex reform schemes (ObamaCare) but they fail to lower costs because they all leave the cartel structure and cartel ownership of governance intact.</p> <p><strong>In the good old days of the 1950s and 1960s, U.S. healthcare was more localized, and the central state (federal government) wasn&#39;t the Sugar Daddy for the cartels.</strong> Hospitals were <em>community hospitals</em> (what a quaint idea in today&#39;s hyper-cartelized system) managed by physicians and administrators who saw their role as serving the community rather than arranging for $20 million annual salaries and millions of dollars in stock options.</p> <p><strong>This is why the cartels love <em>Medicare For All</em> proposals:</strong> the federal government--protector and funder of the cartels--will give the cartels a blank check not just for the 120 million people currently drawing benefits from Medicare/Medicaid but for all 325 million Americans.</p> <p><a href="https://www.cms.gov/fastfacts/" target="resource"> Fast facts on Medicare and Medicaid</a> (Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services)</p> <p>Medicare Beneficiaries: 57.7 million<br />Medicaid Beneficiaries: 72.3 million<br />estimated dual Beneficiaries (drawing benefits from both programs): 10 million</p> <p>Total Beneficiaries: 120 million</p> <p>Medicare/Medicaid budget, 2015: $1.2 trillion</p> <p>Total U.S. healthcare costs: $3.2 trillion, 18% of GDP</p> <p>Department of Defense budget, 2015: $575 billion<br /><a href="http://comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/Documents/defbudget/fy2015/FY15_Green_Book.pdf" target="resource">source</a></p> <p><strong>Are profit and healthcare incompatible? In the real world of state-cartel-capitalism, the answer is yes: a profit-maximizing system fails to deliver prevention while pushing costs higher</strong>, eventually bankrupting the Sugar Daddy government and the nation.</p> <p><strong>Prevention, like a bag of carrots, is intrinsically low-profit.</strong> Illness, especially chronic illness, is highly profitable because the profits flow continuously from treatments, medications, procedures, tests, visits, hospitalization, home care, a constant churn of billing, etc.</p> <p><strong>The only way to systemically lower costs is to make prevention and transparency the top priorities.</strong> Prevention, community ownership of healthcare services, transparency and unfettered competition kill profits, period. Yet these are the only way to lower costs to be in line with our competitors.</p> <p>You can reconfigure the system any way you want, but you have to eliminate cartels, cartel ownership of governance, opaque pricing, government blank checks and incentives for profiteering from chronic illness. If you don&#39;t eliminate all these, you&#39;ve fixed nothing.</p> <p><img align="middle" border="0" class="wide" src="http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/US-healthcare1.jpg" /></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="542" height="370" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170818_chs.jpg?1503058069" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/are-profit-and-healthcare-incompatible#comments Business Business economics Capitalism Cartel Department of Defense Economy ETC Fail Federal assistance in the United States federal government fixed Health Health care in the United States Health economics Healthcare reform in the United States Insurance Companies Medicaid Medicare Medicare Medicare Monopoly Obamacare Presidency of Lyndon B. Johnson Sugar Daddy government Transparency Fri, 18 Aug 2017 13:10:09 +0000 Tyler Durden 601898 at http://www.zerohedge.com Michael Moore Melts Down (Again): "This Guy's Going To Get Us All Killed" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/michael-moore-melts-down-again-guys-going-get-us-all-killed <p>Michael Moore, the controversial documentary filmmaker who infamously predicted Trump's victory when everyone else was saying it was impossible and then proceeded to have numerous public nervous breakdowns as a result, is once again back in the public spotlight with a new prediction: <strong>"[Trump's] going to get us all killed." </strong>The comments came courtesy of an interview with Reuters (full interview can be watched <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-people-michael-moore-idUSKCN1AX2VI">here</a>).</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"This guy's going to get us all killed. There's nobody in charge. This man (Trump) has the nuclear codes," </strong>Moore, 63, told Reuters Television in an interview on Thursday.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>"I'm hoping somebody in the Pentagon is protecting us. Like, whatever's in that nuclear briefcase it's just some girlfriend's phone number or something. I'm just hoping that it's not the real numbers because we're in desperate shape here,"</strong> said Moore, a longtime liberal and a harsh critic of Trump.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"By the end of this run, 100,000 people would have seen the show. And each of them will tell 10 people things I said or did here tonight. That's a million people I've reached through a Broadway show," he said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Moore said that far from being depressed by the actions of Trump and events in Washington in the two weeks since starting the show, he has drawn strength from his appearances.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>"Every night, when I leave here, I feel like my soul has been healed a little, that I have less despair, that I'm a little bit more hopeful that we're going to figure this out,"</strong> he said.</p> </blockquote> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/08/18/2017.08.18%20-%20Moore_0.JPG" alt="Moore" width="600" height="339" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, this is hardly the first time Michael Moore has suggested that President Trump is going to "get us all killed."&nbsp; Back in March, Moore, in reaction to President Trump's roll-back of a number of President Obama's environmental protection and climate change regulations, suggested that <strong>Trump's policies were going to result in the "extinction of human life on earth."</strong></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Trump has signed orders killing all of Obama's climate change regulations. The EPA is prohibited henceforth from focusing on climate change.</p> <p>— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) <a href="https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/846798596389392384">March 28, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Historians in the near future will mark today, March 28, 2017, as the day the extinction of human life on earth began, thanks 2 Donald Trump</p> <p>— Michael Moore (@MMFlint) <a href="https://twitter.com/MMFlint/status/846797843193106432">March 28, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>All because Hillary lost an election...</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="354" height="229" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/Michael%20Moore%202_1.JPG?1503057410" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/michael-moore-melts-down-again-guys-going-get-us-all-killed#comments American people of German descent Business Climate change skepticism and denial Donald Trump Environment Environmental Protection Agency Michael Moore Pentagon Politics of the United States Reuters The Apprentice United States WWE Hall of Fame Fri, 18 Aug 2017 12:47:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 601901 at http://www.zerohedge.com Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/gold-silver-consolidate-last-weeks-gains-palladium-surges-36-ytd-16-year-high <p><strong><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-silver-consolidate-last-weeks-gains-palladium-surges-36-ytd-16-year-high/">Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High</a></span></span></strong></p> <p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">- Gold and silver rise as stocks fall sharply after Barcelona attack</span></span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">- Gold, silver 0.6% higher in week after last weeks 2%, 5% rise</span></span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">- Palladium +36% ytd, breaks out &amp; reaches 16 year high (chart)</span></span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">- Gold to silver ratio falls to mid 75s after silver&nbsp;gains last week</span></span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">- Perfect storm of financial and geopolitical tensions is driving safe haven demand and should see higher prices</span></span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">- Weekly close&nbsp;over $1,300 could see gold quickly test $1,400</span></span><br /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">-&nbsp;Palladium at 16 year highs today; gold, silver in coming months?</span></span></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><strong>2017 YTD Relative Performance (Finviz)</strong><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/08/YTD-CHART-1.png"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/08/YTD-CHART-1-1024x872.png" width="1024" height="872" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11115" /></a><br /></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Editor Mark O'Byrne</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This morning readers woke to the news that a second attack in 24 hours had taken place in Barcelona. So-called Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks in Spain.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Global stocks has fallen and precious metals have eked out gains this morning as investors seek out safe haven assets. Gold has risen&nbsp;to trade at its highest level since the beginning of June.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold’s reaction to the Barcelona events is likely to last and may continue today. The combination of heightened risk&nbsp;in the global geopolitical sphere is likely to support both gold and silver, pushing them&nbsp;through recent resistance. A weekly close above $1,300 per ounce will be very positive for gold and should see a rapid move to test the $1,400 level.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Gold and silver outperforming stocks</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">After losses earlier in the week, gold and silver have come right back and&nbsp;are now up 0.55% and 0.64% respectively. This is very positive as profit taking was to be expected after last weeks strong gains.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold and silver have consistently remained in the top-performing assets throughout the year and are beginning to outperform stocks.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">In the year to date, gold is up nearly 13% whilst silver has climbed over 7.5%. The benchmark S&amp;P500 is up 8.6% after&nbsp;weakness last week and this.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Both precious metals have performed well thanks to safe haven demand, much of which has been driven by very strong demand in India, China and Asia and ETF-demand in Europe.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Palladium at 16 year highs today; gold and silver in coming months</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Palladium is up over 36% in the year-to-date and is&nbsp;the best performing commodity and market this year.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/08/palladium-20-year-chart.jpg"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/08/palladium-20-year-chart.jpg" width="854" height="521" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11123" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><strong>Palladium in USD - 20 Years (Macrotrends.net)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Consumption of the rare industrial precious metal is expected to hit 10.8 million ounces this year, an all-time high. Demand from the automotive industry, the biggest buyer of the metal, is up 4% this year.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Due to the high demand and limited availability of palladium there is market deficit of over 1 million ounces. The apparent five-year-long market deficit has begun to impact the availability of above-ground stocks.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This has prompted leasing rates to dramatically increase, taking the palladium market into backwardation of around 5-10%/year.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Much of palladium’s increased demand is thanks to increased demand for SUV vehicles which have to abide by tightening emission legislation from the EU. The latest announcement in the UK regarding a ban on diesel engines will also help to boost demand as consumers shift from diesel to petrol engines.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This suggests that there is little let-up for the tight supply conditions the palladium market is currently experiencing.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Safe haven demand to last</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Safe&nbsp;haven demand is coming back and is again one of the firm drivers of precious metal prices. We have seen strong demand in August in what is frequently a quieter month as investors switch off and go on holidays.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We are operating in a very nervous financial and geopolitical environment globally. Geopolitical events can lead to price gains and&nbsp;safe haven demand. But the real risk is that a massive terrorist event or a cluster of many such events could impact consumer confidence, markets and&nbsp;the wider global economy.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">And geopolitical risk is also seen in the complete mess that is U.S. politics and the Trump Presidency.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For instance, the latest drama from the Trump camp regarding the collapse of his business councils, is not in itself a reason to rush to precious metals. However, it is another sign of the cracks emerging in Trump’s administration and their complete inability to deliver on campaign promises.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The same can be said for the President’s reaction to the Charlottesville tragedy at the weekend. Both events (added to all issues since January) suggest that the current White House administration are perhaps losing sight of what it means to run the world’s declining super power.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Leading from struggles in the White House, the combative approaches of President Trump and North Korea ruler Kim Jong Un throughout the year has also helped to provide safe haven support for gold and silver.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">These aren’t the only issues that are creating nervousness and uncertainty in the marketplace:</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Vladimir Putin’s geo-political&nbsp;ambitions combined with Russia's growing closeness with China.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- The deteriorating relationship between Iran and the&nbsp;US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and significant players in the Middle East</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- The near impossible problems in the Middle East—including but not limited to ISIS and al Qaeda, Syria, the worsening situation between Israel and Palestine</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Increasing divisions&nbsp;between Turkey and Europe - Turkey having previously been seen as an ally for the West, in the Middle East</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Signs of growing differences between many Western allies, significantly President Trump and European leaders in regard to how to deal with the above.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Will gold break $1,300?</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">In recent months gold has attempted to break through the $1,300 barrier a few times. This level is being touted as a psychological barrier which, when broken, could see gold perform in a way not seen since its 2011 run when the inflows of speculative money drove prices up $500 in just nine months.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">However, it might not be political events that push it past this barrier. Interestingly if one looks at gold’s behaviour in the last seven or eight years, it has not reacted to political tensions (see graph below).</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/08/ANZ-chart.png"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/08/ANZ-chart-1024x657.png" width="1024" height="657" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11117" /></a><strong>Source: ANZ</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Instead, it has been mainly affected by monetary policy, QE, the hunt for yield and shifting inflationary / deflationary concerns. An interesting point to consider as it is, arguably, counterintuitive.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Therefore, we may see gold break through the $1,300 barrier on account of the US Federal Reserve whose last minutes surprised the markets. Whilst they gave no indication as to how the FOMC might move ahead, they did show a lack of consensus between members.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Janet Yellen previously indicated there might be three (or even four) possible interest rate rises for 2017. So far, we have had two of these which have increased U.S. interest rates by 50 basis points.&nbsp; These latest Fed minutes are perhaps suggesting that the FOMC is unlikely to implement even a third rate rise this year.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This should not be surprising given the lack of recovery in the US economy, inflation not meeting the required 2% and employment levels failing to reach targets.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">However, we should not dismiss political tensions and their push for safe haven demand. Central banks may talk and talk but the bottom line is that ultra loose monetary policies are set to continue and remain very supportive.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For many decades we have not seen a geopolitical situation so tense, where it feels so many countries are looking over their shoulders at what could come next both in terms of political and financial threats.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The push over $1,300 could be due to a perfect storm of financial, economic&nbsp;and geopolitical risks, each pushing investors to look for a safe haven and time-proven financial insurance.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Conclusion</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Palladium is the best performing precious metal this year. This is not thanks to events which happen today and (sadly) become tomorrow’s news.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Palladium’s stellar performance is thanks to a series of decisions and events which have caused a major supply deficit whilst demand continues to climb.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The same can be said of gold and silver. Investors must not look to one-off events such as a terrorist attacks or an angry Tweet from Trump.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">It is when these events are no longer isolated incidents and instead form a much bigger picture about the uncertain state of the world.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This picture is taking shape and is slowly impacting the way people look at their finances. Soon, the picture will be much clearer and will drive safe haven investment demand.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">In the meantime, those with clearer foresight would do well to see the climbing numbers in the performance chart and realise now is a good time to take advantage of low prices and insultate and rebalance&nbsp;your portfolio with some safe haven protection&nbsp;in the form of&nbsp;<a href="http://www.goldcore.com/">allocated, segregated gold and silver bullion</a>.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Given these many risks, there is no good reason, that gold and silver will not follow palladium's lead and surge to multi year highs in the coming months.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>News and&nbsp;Commentary</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-18/gold-futures-punch-through-1-300-as-global-stocks-extend-losses">Gold Futures Punch Through $1,300 as Global Stocks Extend Losses (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-marches-higher-as-haven-demand-persists-after-trump-dissolves-councils-2017-08-17">Gold lifted by haven demand; palladium logs 16-year high (MarketWatch.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/global-precious-idUSL4N1L4169">Gold steady, buoyed by geopolitical worries (Reuters.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nikkei-slumps-to-3-month-low-as-asian-markets-dip-2017-08-17">Nikkei slumps to 3-month low as Asian markets dip (MarketWatch.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/india-bans-gold-exports-above-22-carats-to-plug-trade-loopholes">India Bans Gold Exports Above 22 Carats to Plug Trade Loopholes (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/08/gold-breaches-1300.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/08/gold-breaches-1300.png" width="898" height="610" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/08/17/futures-now-gold-shines.html">Futures Now: Gold shines (CNBC.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/fed-supports-bonds-dollar-weakens-on-inflation-markets-wrap">Markets Roiled on Trump Stance Tensions: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://dollarcollapse.com/the-economy/high-profile-sectors-start-roll/">High-Profile Sectors Start To Roll Over (DollarCollapse.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://stansberrychurchouse.com/education/investment-education/can-recurring-crisis/">What can you do about this recurring crisis? (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-16/new-currency-sparks-race-to-remake-one-of-world-s-oldest-markets">New Currency in Race to Remake One of World’s Oldest Markets (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Gold Prices (LBMA AM)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">18 Aug: USD 1,295.25, GBP 1,004.34 &amp; EUR 1,102.65 per ounce<br />17 Aug: USD 1,285.90, GBP 998.12 &amp; EUR 1,096.74 per ounce<br />16 Aug: USD 1,270.15, GBP 985.13 &amp; EUR 1,082.29 per ounce<br />15 Aug: USD 1,274.60, GBP 986.92 &amp; EUR 1,084.05 per ounce<br />14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 &amp; EUR 1,085.48 per ounce<br />11 Aug: USD 1,288.30, GBP 993.67 &amp; EUR 1,096.47 per ounce<br />10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 &amp; EUR 1,091.67 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Silver Prices (LBMA)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">18 Aug: USD 17.15, GBP 13.30 &amp; EUR 14.60 per ounce<br />17 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.23 &amp; EUR 14.55 per ounce<br />16 Aug: USD 16.68, GBP 12.96 &amp; EUR 14.25 per ounce<br />15 Aug: USD 16.89, GBP 13.12 &amp; EUR 14.38 per ounce<br />14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 &amp; EUR 14.39 per ounce<br />11 Aug: USD 17.09, GBP 13.18 &amp; EUR 14.53 per ounce<br />10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 &amp; EUR 14.57 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><br />Recent Market Updates</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/must-see-charts-gold-hedges-usd-devaluation-rise-oil-food-cost-living-since-nixon-ended-gold-standard/">-&nbsp;Must See Charts – Gold Hedges USD Devaluation, Rise in Oil, Food and Cost of Living Since Nixon Ended Gold Standard</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/worlds-largest-hedge-fund-bridgewater-buys-68-million-gold-etf-q2/">-&nbsp;World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF In Q2</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/diversify-gold-urges-dalio-linkedin-militaristic-leaders-playing-chicken-risks-hellacious-war/">-&nbsp;Diversify Into Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin – “Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War”</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-has-yet-another-purpose-help-fight-cancer/">-&nbsp;Gold Has Yet Another Purpose – Help Fight Cancer</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-2-silver-5-week-gundlach-gartman-dalio-positive-gold/">-&nbsp;Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/great-disaster-looms-technology-disrupts-white-collar-workers/">-&nbsp;Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-sees-safe-haven-gains-trump-fire-fury-threat/">-&nbsp;Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/silver-mining-production-plummets-27-top-four-silver-miners/">-&nbsp;Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-consolidates-2-5-gain-july-dollar-5th-monthly-decline/">-&nbsp;Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-coins-bars-see-demand-rise-11-h2-2017/">-&nbsp;Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/greenspan-warns-stagflation-like-1970s-not-good-asset-prices/">-&nbsp;Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/investors-can-learn-japanese-art-kintsukuroi/">-&nbsp;What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/bitcoin-ico-risk-versus-immutable-gold-silver/">-&nbsp;Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Important&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956il">Guides</span></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For your perusal, below are our&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">most</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">popular</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">guides</span>&nbsp;in 2017:</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*N5MhbFRBkTqXW95dlRy194d-P0/5/f18dQhb0S5ft8X-f1rW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1ZW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHmp3PnStQVS9p0b63dhWbW8mp0Tc5x5KNkW7-XB_567h1CPW8r5PXz49z-4PN2MV0Xm5w8jDW1mw3yc59SFsZN4H-tjrQC5z2VPC2cV7gvpc4W4XYhBl2y9PQJW4sxqtN7h5hQFW28TbSB2Cg_LLW96LzRy5DkRJDW5BRXXj2y4Lc7N3Kd2SV_-Nf6W3brNsz66rKFTW2xH0xz1lcG1VVQBGcH5DQdGhN22JjmzdPgQwW9464-Y5GFs9DW4Rj6Nh6BzJrnN45Ly2MkwRN4W8qYMH51FnsVDW2X9_p02MVHnbN2GZdYq215_BW1J7MZd3mgJK7W4F32xR1JjtM5W4Bn5JG3ZzLH2W5jL56q7dkHC7W3VtW1b1MWhN-W1MKd944yqBfl111" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Switzerland</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W5Hh19S2J1j6jW1gxPj45yTRLt0/5/f18dQhb0S5fw8X-fbXW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1YW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHjG25x99KVwyMQc6PVJWyW625bx16Gj8TSW6bVy-525hjVhW83KHrF7J39qHN2m8DqKmmF0wW1jsTjn5VDnrHVbq5fx4TKc2lW6Rjg6t5Pk17jW2xZzRk8LpcPpW36k5sF4FnHNZW1mvfQB2BpzSjN1mT8mr2g4dYW5VZ-P_37vq3BW2--Tfh1w3GzfW5CkFpW6ZccdyW5vvKY_3N2S6fW3KRSNH8yxr7CW7YJp821cQlwRW63x06S1bBvW3W408wWR11rnNbV4Vjkz6NjfdLW55Fr2P5nn1d6W301cwV4GX00sW5hfR428jJDdkW4Cy2w54wj2JxVMFy4w4hyJQMV6N2-D1mPRd4N6YRN0Y4ZDMLD2LMBk7BT1f5Fq5PC03" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Singapore</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W7dc5x_8dXcz0W57pb-W8yRfPY0/5/f18dQhb0Sjv98X-fhGW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrBCVW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z0sTg7mCbb0W57V1HT7tVHF9W8Z32tg35s628W859LV685kgn-W5mG2963qCNtmW8hTG4j5Zh496W2d551v3pNnKLVLrb9R83_Pn-W7JCxGl81bhDKW7N_KqM11GBXTW41TlcR3TwTqzW19BjML1ks0KjW7RPZVs5-2sjBW7ZzDyK7GLjPjW2KH_vB6SdpRZW1hx1p11Gg3W9W6rwy5K1YZKs5W2gFslL6NqPjwW1tbMwf7n90PHW67SS1j224DVBW6SdFBY1S1FW8W1Th1-Q1X2dwGW1swLvy81myPRW1B9M4Q6SdHPtW7C3gqS89xKZ9W1Ms6WG19gjwJN42ktpLPs031VgkKmy5qqk_FW41Q13s3srYmmW2-yGlm4v9PYhVmLW2J4r5l5jW7fnqv3187HWVW794lJw3T7yBDW1Zq0mT90vVQHW7SNfQy7BfhjRN3QzSrFQN_TjVcGblm3cFvNY0" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/gold-silver-consolidate-last-weeks-gains-palladium-surges-36-ytd-16-year-high#comments al-Qaeda Atomic physics Backwardation Bitcoin Bridgewater Bullion Business Central Banks China Consumer Confidence Councils European Union Federal Reserve Finance Global Economy Gold Gold as an investment Gundlach Hedge India Iran ISIS Israel Janet Yellen KIM London bullion market Matter Middle East Middle East Monetary Policy Nikkei North Korea Palladium Precious Metals Precious metals recovery Reuters Saudi Arabia Silver as an investment Sovereigns Stagflation Switzerland Trump’s administration Turkey US Federal Reserve White House White House Fri, 18 Aug 2017 12:29:31 +0000 GoldCore 601902 at http://www.zerohedge.com USA Is Now Twice As Likely To 'Default' Than Germany http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/usa-now-twice-likely-default-germany <p>While the market turmoil (stocks down a few percentage points from all-time record highs) is being pinned on various factors (from North Korea, Trump, &amp; Cohn to terrible retailer earnings and J-Hole anxiety), we suspect the real cause of market uncertainty is starting to peak through - <em><strong>the looming debt ceiling crisis that has now become too big and too imminent to ignore</strong></em>.</p> <p>Of course, uncertainty in The White House is starting to make<strong> investors realize the chance of successfully navigating the debt ceiling crisis without a government shutdown are dwindling...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_debt.jpg"><img height="381" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_debt_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>With the T-Bill market pricing in serious disruption at the end of September, <strong>the risk of a technical default for US Treasury debt is starting to rise and is now spiking relative to Germany.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170817_USA.png"><img height="316" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170817_USA_0.png" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In fact, as the chart above shows,<strong> the current &#39;risk&#39; in USA debt/devaluation markets is twice that of Germany&#39;s </strong>- worse than at the peak of the shutdown in 2013 and worse than the shutdown debacle in 2015.</p> <p>USA Default Risk premium has not been this high since Lehman.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1188" height="625" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170817_USA.png?1503058466" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/usa-now-twice-likely-default-germany#comments Business Debt Ceiling default Economic bubbles Economic history Economy Germany Great Recession Lehman Money North Korea Presidency of Barack Obama Risk Premium Stock market crashes Systemic risk U.S. Treasury United States debt ceiling White House White House Fri, 18 Aug 2017 12:26:26 +0000 Tyler Durden 601899 at http://www.zerohedge.com "Armageddon Risk" Returns: North Korea Predicts "Catastrophe" As Massive U.S. War Games Begin Monday http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/armageddon-risk-returns-north-korea-predicts-catastrophe-massive-us-war-games-begin- <p>Traders barely had time to enjoy the lull from the "Armageddon trade" - the rising possibility of a nuclear exchange between the US and North Korea, which peaked over the weekend when various US officials said a nuclear war is not imminent, echoed by a statement by N. Korea's state-run news agency KCNA, before a new set of worries promptly took over, chief among them the ongoing slow motion train wreck in Donald Trump's administration coupled with yesterday's double terrorist attacks in Spain. Alas, "nuclear war" risk is about to come back with a vengeance because on Monday US and South Korea are scheduled to begin joint military exercises, a massive show of force which every time in the past has infuriated North Korea, sometimes triggering a show of force.</p> <p>Held every fall in South Korea, the Ulchi-Freedom Guardian war games are the <strong>world’s largest computerized command and control exercise. Some 30,000 U.S. soldiers and more than 50,000 South Korean troops usually take part, along with hundreds of thousands of first responders and civilians, some practicing for a potential chemical weapons attack</strong>.</p> <p>Scheduled long before the recent diplomatic fallout between Washington and Pyongyang, the U.S. and South Korean militaries will simulate warfare with North Korea from Aug. 21 to 31, well aware that North Korea could respond with another missile test, <a href="http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article167783272.html">according to McClatchy</a>.</p> <p>In light of this perceived provocation by North Korea, which will almost certainly prompt some reaction, Scott A. Snyder, a Korea specialist with the Council on Foreign Relations said “<strong>Over the course of the next two weeks I expect tensions to escalate. </strong>This is always a sensitive issue, but it is more hair-trigger <strong>as the North Koreans are very sensitive to the likely additional nuclear-capable aircraft flyovers</strong>.”</p> <p>While the Pentagon has repeatedly stated that the biannual exercises are "defensive" in nature, both North Korea and China have long criticized them as <strong>a provocation and an affront to regional security.</strong> “There certainly will be some reaction,” said J.D. Williams, a retired Marine colonel and defense policy researcher at the RAND Corporation in California. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if North Korea conducted some kind of missile launch — not a test but a defiant demonstration of might.</p> <p>As discussed earlier in the week, North Korea’s Kim backed off a threat to launch missiles at Guam, saying he’d watch “the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees” before deciding on the launch, a decision that Trump quickly tweeted was “very wise and well reasoned.” While the exchange suggested that cooler heads were prevailing in the latest U.S. standoff with North Korea. But next week’s war games could rekindle hostilities. <strong>On Thursday, North Korean state media declared that the military exercises will “further drive the situation on the Korean Peninsula into a catastrophe</strong>.”</p> <p>It's not just North Korea: Beijing will likely be rather unhappy too. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The exercise, along with one in March, often triggers anti-war protests in South Korea and condemnation from China. While Chinese President Xi Jinping has been noticeably cool toward Kim Jong Un, and has been critical of North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons, China has long wanted the United States to shrink its military footprint in Asia, including some 12 bases in South Korea and Japan. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In an editorial Monday, China’s Global Times newspaper, an arm of the Communist Party’s People’s Daily, lambasted the decision by the United States and South Korea to go ahead with Monday’s exercises. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“The drill will definitely provoke Pyongyang more, and Pyongyang is expected to make a more radical response</strong>,” the newspaper said. “If South Korea really wants no war on the Korean Peninsula, it should try to stop this military exercise.”</p> </blockquote> <p>In other words, China - which is largely expected to rein in North Korea - is already hedging in case North Korea does something impulsive, suggesting the exercise itself could be the provocation that sets Kim off. And set him off, it will: in the past North Korea has reacted strongly during the biannual war games. In 2014, the north fired off scud missiles during the March exercises held by the U.S.-South Korean command, called Foul Eagle.</p> <p>During the 2015 Ulchi-Freedom Guardian exercises, North Korea and South Korea exchanged artillery and rocket fire over their border. That exchange came after two South Korean soldiers were maimed stepping on land mines in the Demilitarized Zone. South Korea accused North Korean soldiers of sneaking across the border and planting the land mines.</p> <p>Last week, China and Russia urged the United States to consider a “freeze for freeze” agreement to reduce tensions. In such a deal, Pyongyang would agree to suspend its tests of missiles and nuclear weapons, and Washington and Seoul would agree to suspend large-scale military exercises. That, however, is not happening: U.S. military experts say such a deal would give a lopsided advantage to North Korea, which could continue its military training even as the U.S.-South Korea exercises were suspended. “It is hard to imagine why the United States would accept that, because of the vulnerability it would create,” said Bruce Bennett, a senior defense researcher at RAND.</p> <p>In a media briefing on Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said the United States will continue to hold joint exercises with South Korea. And since North Korea will immediate see this "provocation" as a green light for a response, the respite that traders got from the "<strong>Armageddon trade" </strong>that sent the VIX soaring by one of its biggest and fastest intraday moves in history, may prove very short-lived. Perhaps the only silver lining is that the exercises don't begin until Monday, so traders don't have to do anything too crazy ahead of the weekend. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="900" height="500" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/tap%20tran%20han%20quoc.jpg?1503057016" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-18/armageddon-risk-returns-north-korea-predicts-catastrophe-massive-us-war-games-begin-#comments China Communist Party Council on Foreign Relations Department of State Donald Trump's administration Foreign relations of North Korea Guam International relations Japan KIM Korea Korean conflict Military of North Korea Newspaper North Korea North Korea North Korea–South Korea relations North Korea–United States relations Nuclear program of North Korea Pentagon Politics Rand Corporation Ulchi-Freedom Guardian War Fri, 18 Aug 2017 11:55:37 +0000 Tyler Durden 601897 at http://www.zerohedge.com