http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/wp-content/plugins/uBillboard/www.alibaba.com/showroom/coconut-shell-activated-carbon.html en "This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/where-next-financial-crisis-will-come <p>In an extensive, must-read report published on Monday by Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid, the credit strategist unveiled an extensive analysis of the "<strong>Next Financial Crisis", </strong>and specifically what may cause it, when it may happen, and how the world could respond assuming it still has means to counteract the next economic and financial crash. In our first <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/deutsche-bank-global-asset-prices-are-most-elevated-history">take on the report yesterday</a>, we showed one key aspect of the "crash" calculus: between bonds and stocks, <strong>global asset prices are the most elevated they have ever been.</strong></p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/fig%2057_0.jpg" width="500" height="313" /></p> <p>With that baseline in mind, what happens next should be obvious: unless one assumes that the laws of economics and finance are irreparably broken, a deep recession and a market crash are inevitable, especially after the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-13/s-p-500-s-bull-market-gets-a-new-title-third-strongest-ever">third biggest </a>and <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/29/investing/stocks-2nd-longest-bull-market-ever/index.html">second longest </a>central bank-sponsored bull market in history. </p> <p>But what will cause it, and when will it happen? </p> <p>Needless to say, these are the questions that everyone in capital markets today wants answered. And while nobody can claim to know the right answer, here are some excerpts from what DB's Jim Reid, one of the best strategists on Wall Street, thinks will take place.</p> <p><em>Below we present the key excerpts from his must read report;</em></p> <p>* * * </p> <p>We think that the post Bretton Woods (1971-) global financial system remains vulnerable to financial crises.<strong> A simple internet search of financial crises through history (Figure 1, LHS chart) confirms that the frequency has increased over this period</strong>. Examples include the UK secondary banking crisis (1975), the two Oil shocks (1970s), numerous EM defaults (mid-1980s), US Savings and Loans mass failures (late 80s/early 90s), various Nordic financial crises (late 80s), Japanese stock bubble bursting (1990-), various ERM shocks/devaluations (1992), the Mexican Tequila crisis (1994), the Asian crisis (1997), the Russian &amp; LTCM crisis (1998), the Dot.com crash (2000), the various accounting scandals (02/03), the GFC (08/09) and the Euro Sovereign crisis (10-12).</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%201.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%201_0.jpg" width="500" height="215" /></a></p> <p>A more quantitative search backs this up (Figure 1, RH chart). We show the number of DM countries (%) in our sample back to 1800 experiencing one of the following on a YoY basis; -15% Equities, -10% FX, -10% Bond move, a sovereign default, or +10% inflation. <strong>This is our crisis/shock indicator. 0% equals no country with one of these conditions met, 100% equals all in our sample with one being met.</strong></p> <p><strong>It would therefore take a huge leap of faith to say that crises won’t continue to be a regular feature of the current financial system that has been in place since the early 1970s. </strong>The near exponential growth of finance and its liberalisation since this point has encouraged this trend.</p> <p>Indeed as we’ll show in this report there are a number of areas of the global financial system that look at extreme levels. This includes valuations in many asset classes, the incredibly unique size of central bank balance sheets, debt levels, multi-century all-time lows in interest rates and even the level of potentially game changing populist political support around the globe.<strong> If there is a crisis relatively soon (within the next 2-3 years), it would be hard to look at these variables and say that there was no way of spotting them.</strong></p> <p>Having said that, crises tend to have a large element of unpredictability. If they didn’t then surely more would predict their imminent arrival. So while we highlight a lot of the main global vulnerabilities in this report, <strong>history would tell us that there is still a chance that when the next crisis comes its origin will take us by surprise to a certain degree</strong>. <strong>As will its timing</strong>. In the remainder of this executive summary we highlight the conditions that have encouraged crises through history and the main areas of worry as to why we may be vulnerable for another financial crisis relatively soon.</p> <p>Periods with a higher number of crises/shocks coincide with higher levels of debt….</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%202.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%202_0.jpg" width="500" height="211" /></a></p> <p>…and with it higher budget deficits. G7 Government Debt was only previously higher with impact of WWII and before the early 1970s, persistent budget deficits only really existed in war time. Now a permanent feature.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%203.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%203_0.jpg" width="500" height="211" /></a></p> <p><strong>We think the final break with precious metal currency systems from the early 1970s (after centuries of adhering to such regimes) and to a fiat currency world has encouraged budget deficits, rising debts, huge credit creation, ultra loose monetary policy, global build-up of imbalances, financial deregulation and more unstable markets</strong>.</p> <p>The various breaks with gold based currencies over the last century or so has correlated well with our financial shocks/crises indicator. It shows that you are more likely to see crises/shocks when we break from hard currency systems. <strong>Some of the devaluation to Gold has been mindboggling over the last 100 years</strong>.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%204.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%204_0.jpg" width="500" height="303" /></a></p> <p>Perversely, the current post Bretton Woods system also allows for huge operations/stimulus to overcome any crisis/shock. We also shouldn’t underestimate the positive impact that this can have on nominal asset prices. <strong>Cash is arguably a far more dangerous asset in a fiat currency but unstable regime than it is in a more stable less crisis prone one. </strong>However, by continually using stimulus to deal with crises and not letting creative destruction take over, you make a subsequent crisis more likely by passing the problem along to some other part of the global financial system, and usually in bigger size. In a fiat currency world, intervention and money creation is the path of least resistance. In a Gold standard world, mining new gold was the only stable way of increasing the money supply.</p> <p>We think this leaves the current global economy particularly prone to a cycle of booms, busts, heavy intervention, recovery and the cycle starting again. There is no natural point where a purge of the excesses is forced by a restriction on credit creation.</p> <p>So we’re quite confident that there will likely be another financial crisis/shock pretty soon with their frequency continuing to be high until we create a more stable global financial framework.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">So where will the next crisis come from</span>?</strong></p> <p><strong>An obvious issue is how we resolve the combination of the unwinding of unparalleled central bank balance sheet sizes at a time of record peacetime government debt and multi-century record low yields </strong>(Figure 5).</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%205.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%205_0.jpg" width="500" height="214" /></a></p> <p><strong>We also still have extreme levels of global imbalances </strong>(Figure 6) which pose a risk as international capital flows are necessary to support the status quo. These are harder to control by authorities or predict.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%206.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%206_0.jpg" width="500" height="254" /></a></p> <p>All this is occurring at a time of extremely high global asset prices and still low economic growth relative to the past. <strong>Could we be vulnerable to a major asset price correction that creates the conditions for a crisis?</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%207.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%207_0.jpg" width="500" height="199" /></a></p> <p><strong>Global central banks have facilitated these elevated asset prices. </strong>A long series of global financial problems have now been passed through all parts of the financial system with most of these problems stacked up and now resting with central banks and Governments. <strong>The buildup of debt that this has created has forced central banks to keep yields at ultra-low levels, thus raising the prices of a variety of other global assets.</strong></p> <p>Italy and Japan have seemingly unsustainable debt burdens and are likely vulnerable to a crisis outcome. However both have had this for some time which mitigates short-term risks. Italy is perhaps more vulnerable because of precarious and fragile politics, elevated levels of populism and a central bank that is regional and not domestically controlled. Japan shows how long a crisis can be avoided but that doesn’t automatically mean we should be complacent, especially as the BoJ now owns over 40% of the JGB market (from under 10% in 2012).</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%208.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%208_0.jpg" width="500" height="284" /></a></p> <p><strong>On populism, our index (Figure 9) tracking its rise across key DM countries shows that we are close to the 1930s highs. Is this a precursor to a big crisis?</strong> Does it make for more unpredictable politics, economics and markets?</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/JR%20populism.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/JR%20populism_0.png" width="500" height="307" /></a></p> <p><strong>We see China’s credit growth post GFC as also an area of great concern.</strong> As an example, in a recent IMF report they analysed 43 global cases of credit booms in which the credit to GDP ratio increased by more than 30 percentage points over a 5-year period. <strong>Only 5 cases ended without a major growth slowdown or financial crisis immediately afterwards</strong>.</p> <p> The IMF also caveated that these 5 cases, considering country specific factors, provided little comfort. If that wasn’t enough, the fund also points out that<strong> all credit booms that began when the ratios were above 100% ended badly.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%209.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/jr%209_0.jpg" width="500" height="310" /></a></p> <p><strong>These are perhaps the main observable risks out there but we go through a list of other potential catalysts in the piece</strong>. As we discuss at the top, by their very nature, financial crises or shocks are generally unpredictable.</p> <p>While we can’t be confident of where and when the next crisis will occur <strong>we can be pretty confident that the conditions remain in place for a world of frequent crises</strong>.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="573" height="353" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/crisis%20teaser.jpg?1505826947" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/where-next-financial-crisis-will-come#comments Asian financial crisis Bank of Japan Bond Bretton Woods system Business Capital Markets Central Banks default Economic bubbles Economy Financial crises Financial crisis G7 Global Economy Global financial system International finance International Monetary Fund Italy Japan Jim Reid Market Crash Monetary Policy Money Money Supply Recession recovery Sovereign Default Sovereign default Stock market crashes Systemic risk Tue, 19 Sep 2017 13:19:22 +0000 Tyler Durden 603767 at http://www.zerohedge.com Advice From The Trader Who Made $1 Billion In 1929... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/advice-trader-who-made-1-billion-1929 <p><a href="https://www.sovereignman.com/market-bubble/advice-from-the-trader-who-made-1-billion-in-1929-22406/"><em>Authored by Simon Black and Tim Price via SovereignMan.com,</em></a></p> <p><strong>In the late spring of 1720, Sir Isaac Newton decided to sell his stocks.</strong></p> <p>Newton had been an investor in the South Sea Company, a famous enterprise which effectively commanded a trading monopoly with South America.</p> <p>The investment had already made Newton a lot of money, he was up more than 100% in a very short time.</p> <p>In fact, investors were clamoring to buy up the South Sea Company&rsquo;s stock, and the share price kept climbing. And climbing.</p> <p>Newton sensed that the market was getting overheated. It no longer made sense to him. So he sold.</p> <p>There was only one problem: the share price of the South Sea Company kept climbing.</p> <p><strong>All of Newton&rsquo;s friends were getting rich. So, against his better judgement, Newton went back in, repurchasing shares at more than three times the price of his original stake.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_billion.jpg"><strong><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_billion.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 313px;" /></strong></a></p> <p><strong>The market then collapsed, and he lost virtually all his life savings.</strong></p> <p><img alt="" class="aligncenter wp-image-22409 " src="https://cdn.sovereignman.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/chartsouthsea.png" style="width: 600px; height: 411px;" /></p> <p>The experience is said to have given rise to his bemused response:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><strong>It&rsquo;s now been roughly ten years since the Global Financial Crisis began.</strong></p> <p>In the time-honoured manner of regulators, they waited until the battle was largely over, then waded onto the battlefield and shot the survivors.</p> <p><strong>The decade since has seen unprecedented monetary stimulus,</strong> i.e. central bankers have expanded their various money supplies by trillions upon trillions of dollars, giving rise to a massive bubble in asset price worldwide.</p> <p>Stocks are at all-time highs. Bonds are at all-time highs. Property prices are at all-time highs. Many alternative assets like private equity and collectibles are at all-time highs.</p> <p><strong>Yet asset prices keep climbing.</strong></p> <p>Perhaps desperate to avoid the mistakes of Isaac Newton, Scotsman Hugh Hendry, founding partner of Eclectica Asset Management, has recently announced that he is closing his hedge fund.</p> <p>Hendry is a famous critic of this monetary absurdity and consequent asset bubble.</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;<em>It wasn&rsquo;t supposed to be like this.. markets are wrong</em>,&rdquo;</strong> Hendry told investors.</p> <p>Of course, the market is under no obligation to be right. Ever.</p> <p>Hendry&rsquo;s view is accurate&ndash; nearly every objective metric shows that the market is incredibly overpriced.</p> <p><strong>Clint Eastwood&rsquo;s infamous character Dirty Harry once remarked that a man needs to know his limitations. We think we know at least some of ours: we can&rsquo;t time markets.</strong></p> <p>And the only thing we know with any certainty, as sure as night follows day, is that there are always corrections&ndash; both booms AND busts.</p> <p><strong>A decade&rsquo;s worth of QE and ZIRP has fuelled a runaway train, and at some point there will be a correction.</strong></p> <p>Does it make sense to stand in front of the train? Or is it better to, as Isaac Newton did, leap aboard for some final thrills?</p> <p>We prefer neither.</p> <p>Instead we&rsquo;re diversifying as pragmatically as we can, working diligently to find undervalued companies run by honest, talented managers.</p> <p>It requires more hard work and patience than buying some overpriced index fund or whatever the popular investment du jour happens to be.</p> <p><u><strong>But nobody ever said this investing business was supposed to be easy.</strong></u></p> <p>Earlier this year my publishers invited me to write the foreword to their definitive edition of <a href="https://www.harriman-house.com/reminiscences" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Reminiscences of a Stock Operator</a>, a thinly disguised biography of the legendary trader Jesse Livermore.</p> <p><strong>Livermore was extraordinary. Born in 1877, Livermore ran away from home as a child and soon began trading stocks.</strong></p> <p>By the time he was 20, he had already amassed a fortune of $3 million, more than $75 million in today&rsquo;s money.</p> <p><strong>Livermore sold short, </strong>i.e. bet that stock prices would fall, just prior to the 1907 crash, as well as the 1929 crash.</p> <p><u><em><strong>His bets were so lucrative that, going into the Great Depression, Livermore had a fortune of more than $100 million, or about $1.4 billion today.</strong></em></u></p> <p>But Livermore wasn&rsquo;t just great at making money from overheated markets. He was also a master of losing money.</p> <p>This book is widely and rightly regarded as an investment classic. It is also crammed with valuable observations about the practice of speculation and successful trading.</p> <p>Among them, the importance of being patient and disciplined:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p><u><strong>Sitting. As in, doing nothing. </strong></u>As in&hellip; neither standing in front of the train, nor jumping on board.</p> <p>Hedge fund managers like Hugh Hendry don&rsquo;t have this option. They <em>have</em> to be invested. They have to report to their investors every quarter&hellip; and if they&rsquo;re not making money, investors bail.</p> <p><strong>But as an individual, you are not accountable to anyone but yourself.</strong></p> <p>So you are free to sit&hellip; and patiently wait for the safe, compelling investments that will arise once market conditions return to sanity.</p> <p><u><em><b>Do <span class="underline_text">you</span> have a Plan B?</b></em></u></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="600" height="313" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170919_billion.jpg?1505823550" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/advice-trader-who-made-1-billion-1929#comments B+ Business Eclectica Eclectica Economic bubbles Economic history of the Netherlands Economy Finance Financial crises Financial markets Great Depression Hedge fund Hugh Hendry Hugh Hendry Jesse Lauriston Livermore Livermore Market Conditions Money Private Equity Short Speculation Systemic risk Tue, 19 Sep 2017 12:57:23 +0000 Tyler Durden 603761 at http://www.zerohedge.com US Export, Import Prices Spike Most In 14 Months http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/us-export-import-prices-spike-most-14-months <p>US Import and Export prices jumped more than expected in August - <strong>both rising 0.6% MoM, the biggest rise since June 2016</strong>. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_imp.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_imp_0.jpg" width="600" height="315" /></a></p> <p>A 4.8% MoM spike in <strong>Petroleum drove the import surge</strong> and the rise in Industrial Supplies' costs sent Export prices higher.</p> <p>Year-over-year, both import and export prices are rising faster than The Fed's 2% mandate...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_imp1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_imp1_0.jpg" width="600" height="312" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="961" height="504" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170919_imp.jpg?1505825298" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/us-export-import-prices-spike-most-14-months#comments Biofuels Economy Energy Foreign relations of Japan Great Recession Peak oil Pricing US Federal Reserve Tue, 19 Sep 2017 12:50:59 +0000 Tyler Durden 603765 at http://www.zerohedge.com Hurricane Maria Causes "Widespread Devastation" In Dominica As It Races Toward Puerto Rico http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/hurricane-maria-causes-widespread-devastation-dominica-it-races-toward-puerto-rico <p>In less than two days, Hurricane Maria has strengthened from a tropical storm to a powerful category five hurricane, dubbed in no uncertain terms as "catastrophic" by the NHC. Though it has been downgraded to a category 4 overnight, the storm made landfall on the tiny Caribbean island of Dominica, leaving it utterly “devastated,” according to the island’s prime minister.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19domenicaimage_0.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19domenicaimage_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 278px;" /></a></p> <p>"We're just waiting for daybreak to do an assessment of the damage," Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit told<a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/18/americas/atlantic-storms-maria-jose-lee/index.html"> CNN'</a>s Rosemary Church.</p> <p>The storm, which made landfall Monday night, has <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/190851.shtml">maximum sustained winds of 155 mph</a>, and remains on track to directly hit Puerto Rico, what would make it the first category four hurricane to directly hit the island in 85 years, according to CNN. Skerrit said the island’s “first order of business” following the storm would be to make sure “every single citizen and resident is safe.”</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19maria_0.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19maria_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 413px;" /></a></p> <p>A statement from the National Hurricane Center said Maria’s winds reached 160 miles per hour when it hit the island nation. In an update, the Center said that reports "indicate significant damage to structures has occurred in Dominica."</p> <p>In a Facebook post, Skerrit said “initial reports are of widespread devastation. So far we have lost all what money can buy and replace. My greatest fear for the morning is that we will wake to news of serious physical injury and possible deaths as a result of likely landslides triggered by persistent rains.”</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19skerrit.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19skerrit_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 276px;" /></a></p> <p>Meanwhile, the storm early Tuesday morning made landfall on the tiny island Guadalupe, where it is battering homes and businesses with torrential rains and hurricane-force winds…</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">After slamming through Dominica as a CAT 5 Hurricane, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Maria?src=hash">#Maria</a> is now doing this in Guadeloupe - NHC says winds are sustained 160mph. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WBZ?src=hash">#WBZ</a> <a href="https://t.co/HbDbSMrEeg">pic.twitter.com/HbDbSMrEeg</a></p> <p>— Anaridis Rodriguez (@Anaridis) <a href="https://twitter.com/Anaridis/status/910080828121731072">September 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Puerto Rico Gov. Ricardo Rosselló has declared a state of emergency ahead of Maria’s landfall, which will likely happen Wednesday. Fortunately, President Donald Trump issued an emergency declaration for federal assistance to augment PR’s ability to respond to the storm, as well as the US Virgin Islands.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Maria?src=hash">#Maria</a> regains category 5 intensity with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. <a href="https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb">https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb</a> <a href="https://t.co/0Ft5Yob5hd">pic.twitter.com/0Ft5Yob5hd</a></p> <p>— NHC Atlantic Ops (@NHC_Atlantic) <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/910094082541801472">September 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>A hurricane warning remains in effect for Guadeloupe, Dominica, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat, the US and British Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques.</p> <p>According to CNN, the ferocity of Maria bears striking similarities to Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 hurricane that hit the Bahamas and Florida in 1992. Both storms are compact, and Maria's wind speed comes close to that of Hurricane Andrew, 165 mph, when it hit southern Florida.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Latest graphics from <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic">@NHC_Atlantic</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Maria?src=hash">#Maria</a> wind field &amp; timeline (subject to change) of when they can be expected. <a href="https://t.co/E3tlVK0imW">pic.twitter.com/E3tlVK0imW</a></p> <p>— Tornado Quest (@TornadoQuest) <a href="https://twitter.com/TornadoQuest/status/910078964919566336">September 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>After a close brush with Irma left much of the island without power, Puerto Rico sheltered many of the evacuees who fled Hurricane Irma's wrath in other Caribbean islands. Now those evacuees and native Puerto Ricans are bracing for another powerful hurricane. PR Governor Ricardo Rossello ordered evacuations ahead of the impact, telling CNN that extensive preparations had been made to mitigate Maria's potential impact. The governor added that the island is as “ready as we can be” for Maria.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>"We're as ready as we can be," he told CNN's Don Lemon.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"This sort of event is a very dangerous event, high winds, a slow storm and a lot of rainfall. And this coming just about two weeks after Irma skirted off the northeast of Puerto Rico.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"We've made preparations... we've focused on really the only thing that matters right now, which is making sure people are safe. We have 500 shelters, (we're) moving people to those shelters and hopefully weathering the storm so we can rebuild Puerto Rico.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Calling its potential impact "catastrophic," Rosselló said that the island was expected to experience tropical storm force winds for about two and a half days and sustained high level hurricane winds for "the better part of a day."</p> </blockquote> <p>According to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/puerto-rico-faces-hurricane-maria-after-irma-s-1-billion-damage">Bloomberg</a>, Rossello added that residents who live in flood zones are in danger.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“If you are in a flood zone or in a wood house, your life is in danger,” Governor Ricardo Rossello said during a press conference Monday in San Juan. “There has never been an event like this in our history in the last 100 years. Our call is for all citizens to move to a safe place.”</p> </blockquote> <p>If Maria strikes the island as forecast, it will be "more dangerous than Hugo and Georges," Rossello said. Hurricane Hugo killed five people in Puerto Rico in 1989, and Hurricane Georges caused more than $1.7 billion in damage to the island in 1998. In Salinas, a city on the island's southern coast where the storm is expected to hit hard, CNN saw dozens of people queuing for water and essentials ahead of the hurricane's anticipated impact.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Round two of Hurricane shopping in 2 weeks. <a href="https://twitter.com/CNN">@CNN</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneMaria?src=hash">#HurricaneMaria</a> <a href="https://t.co/1fVe7EY15U">pic.twitter.com/1fVe7EY15U</a></p> <p>— Khushbu Shah (@KhushbuOShea) <a href="https://twitter.com/KhushbuOShea/status/909908371377152000">September 18, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>The Puerto Rico Convention Center in San Juan is still housing Hurricane Irma evacuees from other Caribbean islands. But it is preparing to accept thousands of residents who’ve been displaced by Maria.</p> <blockquote class="instagram-media" style="background: #FFF; border: 0; border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: 0 0 1px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.5),0 1px 10px 0 rgba(0,0,0,0.15); margin: 1px; max-width: 658px; padding: 0; width: calc(100% - 2px);"><div style="padding: 8px;"> <div style="background: #F8F8F8; line-height: 0; margin-top: 40px; padding: 49.72222222222222% 0; text-align: center; width: 100%;"> <div style="background: url(data; display: block; height: 44px; margin: 0 auto -44px; position: relative; top: -22px; width: 44px;">&nbsp;</div> </div> <p style="margin: 8px 0 0 0; padding: 0 4px;"><a href="https://www.instagram.com/p/BZMurTAFiPx/" target="_blank" style="color: #000; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: 17px; text-decoration: none; word-wrap: break-word;">Puerto Rico Convention Center is housing Hurricane Irma evacuees, now preparing for Hurricane Maria. Each cot has blanket and bags filled with snacks, toiletries and a pair of warm socks. #hurricanemaria #puertorico</a></p> <p style="color: #c9c8cd; font-family: Arial,sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 17px; margin-bottom: 0; margin-top: 8px; overflow: hidden; padding: 8px 0 7px; text-align: center; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;">A post shared by LEYLA SANTIAGO (@leylasantiagocnn) on</p> <p>Sep 18, 2017 at 3:19pm PDT</p></div> </blockquote> <script src="//platform.instagram.com/en_US/embeds.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/puerto-rico-faces-hurricane-maria-after-irma-s-1-billion-damage">Bloomberg also notes, </a>Puerto Rico, a bankrupt island that’s still dealing with the aftermath of a storm that caused as much as $1 billion of damage and left hundreds of thousands without power, faces even more upheaval with Hurricane Maria. The government of Puerto Rico ordered rationing of basic necessities, including water and batteries - although those items were already gone from some San Juan store shelves.</p> <p>Prepa, PR’s government-run utility, is still trying to restore power to hundreds of thousands of residents after its electrical infrastructure sustained as much as $400 million of the nearly $1 billion of damage from Irma. The average age of the company’s plants is 44 years, meaning its infrastructure is dated and vulnerable.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose continues to make its way along the east coast, causing choppy surf and wind, but no real damage to the US, with the worst affects being felt along Cape Cod, according to the NHC.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19joseprojectionamp_0.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19joseprojectionamp_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 411px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="645" height="359" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.09.19domenicaimage.JPG?1505819303" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/hurricane-maria-causes-widespread-devastation-dominica-it-races-toward-puerto-rico#comments Caribbean cat 5 CNN's Rosemary Church Disaster East Coast Environment Geography of North America History of the Caribbean Hurricane David Hurricane Georges Hurricane Hugo Hurricane Luis Hurricane Maria Lesser Antilles National Hurricane Center PR’s government Puerto Rico southern Florida Twitter Twitter Weather Tue, 19 Sep 2017 12:50:48 +0000 Tyler Durden 603752 at http://www.zerohedge.com Building Permits Rebound In August As 'Rental Nation' Demand Returns http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/builing-permits-rebound-august-rental-nation-demand-returns <p>Following July&#39;s collapse in housing data (from permits to sales), August data for Housing<strong> Starts were supposed to bounce back but didn&#39;t </strong>(falling 0.8% MoM vs +1.7% exp) and <strong>Permits were expected to fall 0.8% but spiked 5.7% MoM</strong> (thanks to a big jump in multi-family units).</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_housing1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_housing1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 317px;" /></a></p> <p>So it appears last month&#39;s ugly Housing Starts data was revised sharply higher on the back of a jump in multi-family units...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_housing3.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_housing3_0.png" style="width: 600px; height: 435px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>And Multi-family Permits jumped notably...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_housing2.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_housing2.png" style="width: 599px; height: 425px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Finally for those who need simplicity - here is the performance of US Homebuilder stocks relative to the performance of US housing market data...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_housing.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_housing_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 313px;" /></a></p> <p>So, why bother looking at the housing data at all?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="961" height="501" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170919_housing.jpg?1505824647" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/builing-permits-rebound-august-rental-nation-demand-returns#comments Housing Housing Market Housing Starts Housing starts Jump Oral literature Technology Vocal music Tue, 19 Sep 2017 12:42:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 603763 at http://www.zerohedge.com Defense Secretary Mattis Says US Will Act On North Korea Missiles That Pose A Threat http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/defense-secretary-mattis-says-us-has-many-military-options-north-korea <p>As President Donald Trump prepares to make his first speech to the United Nations, Secretary of Defense James Mattis was pushing the administration&rsquo;s line on North Korea, saying that the US has &ldquo;many military options&rdquo; available for toppling North Korea&rsquo;s unstable regime that wouldn&rsquo;t risk millions of deaths in Seoul.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;There are many military options, in concert with our allies, that we will take to defend our allies and our own interests,&rdquo; </strong>Mattis said, declining to elaborate or provide any further details.</p> </blockquote> <p>The Trump administration has repeatedly insisted that &ldquo;all options&rdquo; remain on the table when dealing with North Korea, and that the US wouldn&rsquo;t hesitate to consider a military solution if diplomatic efforts and sanctions fail to halt the Kim regime&#39;s rapidly progressing nuclear program. Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have been exchanging threats of nuclear annihilation for months, with Trump famously promising to deliver &ldquo;fire and fury the likes of which the world has never seen&rdquo; if the North doesn&rsquo;t cease its threats to the US.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19jamesmattis.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/18/2017.09.19jamesmattis_0_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 236px;" /></a></p> <p>Of course, many believe that, despite the administration&#39;s rhetoric, it still lacks a cohesive US military strategy for toppling the Kim regime &ndash; at least one that doesn&rsquo;t involve risking millions of lives in Seoul, which is less than 50 miles from the North Korean border. Former Trump Chief Strategist Steve Bannon once said in a now famous interview that there is no military alternative for dealing with the North that wouldn&rsquo;t involve potentially millions of deaths in Seoul from conventional weapons fire.</p> <p>Mattis also said that he discussed deploying tactical nuclear weapons with his South Korean counterpart, but declined to elaborate on the details.</p> <p>After the North has twice fired intermediate range missiles over the Northern Japanese island of Hokkaido, the former general added that the US is prepared to shoot down any North Korean missiles that pose a threat to its territory or that of its allies &ndash; comments that are particularly relevant following the North&rsquo;s decision</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Those missiles are not directly threatening any of us,&rdquo; Mattis said Monday<u><strong> when asked why the military didn&rsquo;t shoot them down</strong></u>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;The bottom line is that, <strong>when the missiles - were they to be a threat, whether it be to U.S. territory, Guam, obviously Japan - Japan&rsquo;s territory, that would elicit a different response from us,</strong>&rdquo; he said.</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_mattis.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_mattis_0.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 243px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>Mattis - confirming what investors have known for some time - said North Korea is &ldquo;intentionally doing provocations that seem to press against the envelope for just how far can they push without going over some kind of a line in their minds that would make them vulnerable,&rdquo; but that the country doesn&#39;t pose a threat to the US.</strong></p> <p>When the North fires its missiles, Mattis said, &quot;they aim for the middle of the Pacific Ocean, as you know, where at least we hope no ships are around, right?&rdquo;</p> <p><strong>South Korean President Moon Jae-in suggested to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Sept. 15 that they should both refrain from overreacting to North Korean provocations to avoid any accidental conflict.</strong></p> <p>Mattis praised decisions by countries to expel North Korean ambassadors. Spain declared Pyongyang&rsquo;s envoy to Madrid &ldquo;persona non grata&rdquo; on Monday, and told him to leave by the end of the month. Mexico, Peru and Kuwait have either expelled or given notice to ambassadors since the Sept. 3. nuclear test.</p> <p><strong>Kuwait will not renew permits to North Korean workers to re-enter the country after projects they are working on are completed &quot;within one or two years,&quot; according to Bloomberg. There are between 2,000 and 2,500 North Korean workers in Kuwait, with thousands more believed to be in other Gulf states.</strong></p> <p>Rallying international pressure against North Korea and Iran is expected to be the top priority of the Trump&#39;s trip to the United Nations General Assembly this week. <strong>Reports that surfaced late Monday claimed that Trump is planning to label Iran and North Korea as &quot;global threats&quot; during his first address to the General Assembly, set to begin at 10 a.m.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="982" height="463" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.09.19jamesmattis.JPG?1505821646" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/defense-secretary-mattis-says-us-has-many-military-options-north-korea#comments Business Donald Trump Donald Trump Fail General Assembly Guam Iran James Mattis Japan KIM Kuwait Mexico North Korea North Korea crisis North Korea–United States relations Politics South Korea Trump Administration United Nations United Nations General Assembly United States War Tue, 19 Sep 2017 12:35:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 603757 at http://www.zerohedge.com Boris Johnson Threatens To Resign If Theresa May "Goes Against His Brexit Demands", Pound Rises http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/boris-johnson-threatens-resign-if-theresa-may-goes-against-his-brexit-demands <p>In confirmation that Theresa May's upcoming Florence speech this Friday is not only what many have called "the most important day for Brexit since the referendum", but also the most opaque, the <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/19/boris-johnson-will-resign-weekend-theresa-may-goes-against-brexit/">Telegraph</a> reports that UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will resign as before the weekend if Theresa May veers towards a “Swiss-style” arrangement with the EU in her upcoming speech.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The Foreign Secretary believes he will have no option but to walk out of the Cabinet if the Prime Minister advocates permanently paying for access to the single market. Stopped by reporters in New York today after going for a run, Mr Johnson said he was not going to resign and described the Cabinet as "a nest of singing birds".</p> </blockquote> <p>However, he has reportedly "<strong>told friends that a so-called “EEA minus” version of Brexit is something he “could not live with</strong>”.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>If she tells the Cabinet she has made up her mind in favour of the Swiss-style&nbsp; “EEA minus” option, which would yoke Britain to the EU through payments for single market access and adherence to most EU rules and regulations, <strong>Mr Johnson could not support it and would have to resign under the convention of collective Cabinet responsibility.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>As a reminder, an "EEA minus" scenario (ie like Switzerland and Norway) is one of several visions for Brexit emerging within the government. One recent sellside observation defines it as follows:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>In blunt terms, the Swiss model is outside the EU, but with access to the single market (whilst not being inside it). Britain would shadow the EU’s regulatory structures and transpose European Court of Justice Judgements. They want to negotiate a similar deal for the UK but “minus” the freedom of movement. Curcially though, Switzerland had to concede and give the EU certain Freedom of Movement – the UK wants to get this deal “minus” freedom of movement (hence the name). This proposal supposedly has the backing of Chancellor Hammond, Home Secretary Amber Rudd, Cabinet Secretary Jeremy Heywood and Olly Robbins (who was, until last night, civil service head of the Department for Exiting the European Union). </p> </blockquote> <p>The "Swiss-style" arrangement is in contrast to a "CETA Plus”, or omprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, a la Canada, which negotiated a free-trade agreement with the EU which effectively eliminates 98% of tariffs between the two countries, which the EU Commission has said will save the EU over half a billion EUR in taxes each year, and allows “mutual recognition in regulated professions such as architects, accountants and engineers, and easier transfers of company staff and other professionals between the EU and Canada”. </p> <p>Following the report GBPUSD has jumped about 30 ticks, rising above 1.353, suggesting the the market's vote is, in fact, for EEA minus... and also a "Boris Johnson minus" outcome.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1920" height="999" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/boris%20johnson%20teaser%202.jpg?1505824250" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/boris-johnson-threatens-resign-if-theresa-may-goes-against-his-brexit-demands#comments Brexit Continuing UK relationship with the EU EU Commission Europe European Court of Justice Judgements European Economic Area European Union European Union European Union Euroscepticism in the United Kingdom Norway Switzerland Theresa May Withdrawal from the European Union Tue, 19 Sep 2017 12:33:03 +0000 Tyler Durden 603762 at http://www.zerohedge.com Is This The Most Overpriced Asset In The World? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/most-overpriced-asset-world <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com//macro/overpriced">Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,</a></p> <p><strong>It&rsquo;s tough to be a hedge fund manager these days.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_macro.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170919_macro_0.png" /></a></p> <p><strong>The investing community can flip from treating you like a super-guru whose every word is gospel, to a complete bum, almost overnight.</strong> Last week, with news that famed hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry was closing his macro hedge fund firm, Eclectica Asset Management, they turned on poor Hugh like a pack of rabid dogs. Thank goodness for decent individuals like Santiago Capital&rsquo;s, Brent Johnson, who reminded us of the enormous difficulties in this game we choose to play. Well said Brent, well said.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/SantiagoSep1817.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/SantiagoSep1817.png" height="460" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/SantiagoSep1817.png" width="600" /></a></p> <p><strong>I have always enjoyed listening to Hugh. And even though I didn&rsquo;t agree with every trade, he made you think.</strong> It&rsquo;s been a couple of hundred years since my great, great Grandfather, Duncan Muir left Scotland for Canada, but his genes must still course through my veins, as I often found myself thoroughly enjoying Hugh&rsquo;s rascal-like Scottish demeanor as he poked his finger in the eye of conventional thinking.</p> <p>And you have to give Hugh credit for facing his fund&rsquo;s closing head-on. He could have quietly slipped into the sunset. But instead, Hugh laid out his investing soul for all to see. And Hugh didn&rsquo;t just do it with a farewell letter, but rather embarked on a short media blitz that I am sure he regretted at times.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/HughTooSep1817.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/HughTooSep1817.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/HughTooSep1817.png" style="width: 600px; height: 525px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>The topic of today&rsquo;s post is Hugh&rsquo;s parting trade idea. </strong>When the Bloomberg interviewer posed the idea of a mythical 1 billion sterling client with the patience of a saint, and asked Hendry what he would do with the money, Hugh responded the following:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;&hellip;the most distorted asset class in the world is the 2-year German bond, or the Schatz as it is named. I&rsquo;d be short that. People are willing to lose 75 basis points a year for security. You know what? You don&rsquo;t need that security.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p><u><strong>Is shorting the Schatz really the best trade on the board? Will Hendry ultimately be proven correct?</strong></u></p> <p>Let&rsquo;s have a look at some charts.</p> <p>First, here is the 2-year German yield over the past decade.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/Ger2YRSep1817.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/Ger2YRSep1817.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/Ger2YRSep1817.png" style="width: 600px; height: 444px;" /></a></p> <p>Yup, pretty bloody stupid. Paying the German government 69 basis points for the privilege of allowing them to hold your money over the next two years might go down as one of the dumbest trades in the history of finance. Negative rates are one of the great perversions of modern monetary theory. They should have been avoided at all cost, but instead they were embraced throughout Europe and Japan.</p> <p><strong>But just because something is asinine, doesn&rsquo;t mean that shorting it is wise.</strong></p> <p>When I first started writing this piece, I expected to find that Hendry had picked the wrong maturity German bund to short. I thought the 2-year Schatz was trading at levels that simply reflected expectations for an &ldquo;on hold&rdquo; ECB for the next two years. Much to my surprise, I was wrong.</p> <p>The German overnight deposit rate is trading at negative 40 basis points. That means an investor can earn an extra 29 basis points by rolling their funds at the extreme front of the curve (depositing with the ECB) versus the two year schatz, as long as the ECB does not lower that rate even further. The front end of the German yield curve has a peculiar inversion.</p> <p><strong>Hendry is right that investors are paying for the safety of investing in German Schatz, but he took liberties when he claimed the entire negative rate represented a reach for safety. It&rsquo;s really the extra negative yield versus the negative 40 overnight rate that represents the richness of the two-year.</strong></p> <p>Well, that&rsquo;s assuming the ECB does not go even further negative. But, given the stress that negative yields have caused on pension funds, insurance companies, and savers, it seems like a safe bet the ECB will only lower rates in an absolute disaster (and even then, I would argue they would be better off doing more QE than lowering the rate.)</p> <p><strong>I am a big German bund bear, but I have been concentrating my efforts at the longer end of the curve. Hendry has opened my eyes to the possibility of shorting the front end as well.</strong></p> <p>The real question is what will the coming interest rate moves in the German curve look like. You can short 7 Two-year Schatz futures to achieve the same Basis Point Value as the 10 year Bund future.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/DUZ7Sep1817.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/DUZ7Sep1817.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/DUZ7Sep1817.png" style="width: 600px; height: 150px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>So will a lifting of the German bund safety trade make the 2-year rise more basis points than the 10-year bund? I don&rsquo;t know, but I am inclined to say that Hendry got his last trade slightly wrong.</strong></p> <p>The most overpriced asset is not German two-year Schatz at minus 69 bps, but instead German bunds at positive 45 bps. If you believe that the ECB will hit their inflation target come hell or high water, why on earth would you invest in a 10-year bund, locking in a negative 155 basis point loss in real terms? Yeah, eventually the two-year will rip higher when the ECB takes their foot off the gas, but I suspect the yield curve will only get steeper in the years to come. If the two-year shits the bed, the ten-year destruction will be epic.</p> <p><strong>For the short two-year to be a better trade, you would have to assume the ECB would be relatively hawkish, causing a bear flattener. ECB hawkish? They are only going to raise rates once inflation is screaming. Draghi will be late, not the other way round. Therefore, it makes more sense to play the long end of the curve.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/TwoSep1817.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/TwoSep1817.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/TwoSep1817.png" style="width: 600px; height: 444px;" /></a></p> <p>Now, I don&rsquo;t want to nitpick Hugh&rsquo;s argument too closely. After all, he has already taken enough flack, but most importantly, we are on the same page. The whole German bund curve is a screaming sell.</p> <p><u><em><strong>At the end of the day, I am hoping we are both correct. A&rsquo; richt Hugh, let&rsquo;s git this german bund bear merkat gaun!</strong></em></u></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><u><strong>Gundlach&rsquo;s still waiting for his 400%</strong></u></p> <p>Speaking of hedge fund gurus, do you remember all the excitement about DoubleLine&rsquo;s Jeffrey Gundlach&rsquo;s &ldquo;if I don&rsquo;t make 400% on my S&amp;P 500 puts I will be disappointed&rdquo; bearish prediction on August 8th? This was around the same time as a bunch of other <a href="http://themacrotourist.com/macro/billionaire-bears">billionaire bears</a> were getting negative.</p> <p><strong>Since then, spooz are up and more importantly, implied volatility is way lower.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/GundlachSep1817.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/GundlachSep1817.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/GundlachSep1817.png" style="width: 600px; height: 444px;" /></a></p> <p>I hate tagging along with hedgies trades in the heat of the moment. Often you are competing with a bunch of other mopes, and most importantly, the hedgies are already positioned in the direction of their tout, so the most likely outcome is a snap back the other way once the excitement wears off.</p> <p>And that&rsquo;s exactly what happened this time.</p> <p><strong>Yet, sometimes the trades make sense, the timing just sucks.</strong></p> <p><u><strong>So even though I am a long-term stock bull, I think it makes sense to take a dark side stab through a long position in equity index puts. </strong></u>Vol is cheap, the bears are busy licking their wounds, and the bulls seem a little overconfident.</p> <p>To me, the risk reward for buying some protection in here makes sense<strong>. I am buying December 2500/2300 vertical put spreads,</strong> with the full knowledge there is a good chance they will be dust. But you don&rsquo;t buy your insurance when everyone is warning about fires. You buy it when everyone has forgotten&hellip; What&rsquo;s that expression? Buy your straw hats in the winter.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/WinterSep1817.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/WinterSep1817.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/09/WinterSep1817.png" style="width: 600px; height: 700px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="422" height="238" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170919_hendry.jpg?1505822219" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/most-overpriced-asset-world#comments Bond Eclectica Eclectica Economy Economy of the European Union European Central Bank Eurozone Finance Fixed income Flattener General Jewish Labour Bund in Lithuania, Poland and Russia German government Gundlach Hedge Hugh Hendry Hugh Hendry Hugh Hendry Insurance Companies Japan Money S&P 500 Schatz Short Volatility Yield Curve Yield curve Tue, 19 Sep 2017 12:12:05 +0000 Tyler Durden 603758 at http://www.zerohedge.com Frontrunning: September 19 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/frontrunning-september-19 <ul> <li>Markets Brace for Fed’s Big Move: The End of Easy Money (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-to-announce-it-will-start-unwinding-easy-money-policies-1505813402">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Senate GOP Has 12 Days to Repeal Obamacare and No Room for Error (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/senate-gop-has-12-days-to-repeal-obamacare-and-no-room-for-error">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Senate GOP Considers a Trillion-Dollar-Plus Tax Cut for Budget (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-republicans-consider-a-trillion-dollar-plus-tax-cut-for-budget-1505786253">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>In first speech at U.N., Trump to single out North Korea, Iran (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-un-assembly-trump/in-first-speech-at-u-n-trump-to-single-out-north-korea-iran-idUSKCN1BU0B3">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Trump to Push Nationalist Policy in First U.N. Address (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-to-push-nationalist-policy-at-u-n-1505782800">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Trump Will Call for Action on North Korea, Iran in First UN Address (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/trump-at-un-to-urge-action-on-north-korea-iran-shared-menace">BBG</a>)</li> <li>A Guide to the Senate’s Three Health-Care Proposals (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/senates-three-health-care-proposals-a-guide-1505813402">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Wall Street’s Bond Gurus Have the Fed’s Balance-Sheet Unwind All Wrong (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-18/wall-street-s-bond-gurus-have-it-all-wrong-as-qe-unwind-looms">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Maria Regains Category 5 Strength on Path to USVIs and Puerto Rico (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-18/maria-bears-down-on-battered-caribbean-threatens-puerto-rico">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Mattis hints at military options on North Korea but offers no details (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-usa-mattis/mattis-hints-at-military-options-on-north-korea-but-offers-no-details-idUSKCN1BT2IY">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Bond King Bill Gross Falls to the Middle of the Pack (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/bond-king-bill-gross-falls-to-the-middle-of-the-pack">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Toys ‘R’ Us Seeks Bankruptcy, Crushed by Debt and Online Rivals (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/toys-r-us-files-for-bankruptcy-crushed-by-online-competition">BBG</a>)</li> <li>China’s Backdoor Real-Estate Bailout (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-backdoor-real-estate-bailout-1505731385?mod=djemHeardEUH">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Equifax Discloses Earlier Cybersecurity Incident (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/equifax-discloses-earlier-cybersecurity-incident-but-no-details-1505786212">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Brooklyn Seen as Best Bet for NYC to Win New Amazon Headquarters (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/brooklyn-seen-as-best-bet-for-nyc-to-win-new-amazon-headquarters">BBG</a>)</li> <li>What If an Irma-Like Hurricane Hit the New York City Metro Area? (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/what-if-an-irma-like-hurricane-hit-the-new-york-city-metro-area">BBG</a>)</li> <li>The World’s Biggest Sovereign Wealth Fund Hits $1 Trillion (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-19/norway-wealth-fund-says-reached-1-trillion-in-value">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Ex-SAC trader says he forgot facts, seeks to void insider trading plea (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-sac-insidertrading-lee/ex-sac-trader-says-he-forgot-facts-seeks-to-void-insider-trading-plea-idUSKCN1BT2DB?il=0">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>J Coin: Japanese banks' virtual currency without the volatility (<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Markets/Currencies/J-Coin-Japanese-banks-virtual-currency-without-the-volatility">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Swiss shut down 'fake' E-Coin in latest cryptocurrency crackdown (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-swiss-cryptocurrency/swiss-shut-down-fake-e-coin-in-latest-cryptocurrency-crackdown-idUSKCN1BU0ZT">Reuters</a>)</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Overnight Media Digest</strong></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">WSJ</span></em></p> <p>- Toys 'R' Us Inc (IPO-TOYS.N), filed for bankruptcy protection late Monday night, undone by a hefty debt load and the rapid shift to online shopping. on.wsj.com/2fi5F6d</p> <p>- Alphabet Inc's Google on Monday launched its first-ever smartphone app that lets users transfer money to individuals and businesses in the country without the use of a credit or a debit card. on.wsj.com/2fgumjk</p> <p>- Hurricane Maria barreled into the eastern Caribbean late Monday as a dangerous Category 5 storm, ripping roofs from homes, knocking out electricity on the island of Dominica and threatening others in the region already ravaged by Hurricane Irma. on.wsj.com/2fgRMoZ</p> <p>- Cisco Systems Inc's executive chairman, John Chambers, is stepping down in December. The company plans to appoint Chief Executive Chuck Robbins as the next chairman. on.wsj.com/2ff4zIr</p> <p>- Roku Inc said it expects to raise up to $219 million in its initial public offering, as the maker of streaming-media devices set a price range for its planned listing that would value the company between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion. on.wsj.com/2ffYBXF</p> <p>- Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker signed a bill Monday that would give Taiwan's Foxconn Technology Group $3 billion in economic incentives to open a mega-plant in the state. on.wsj.com/2fgtziD</p> <p>- The U.S. has military options available for North Korea that would not put South Korea at grave risk of counterattack, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Monday, but he refused to spell out what those are. on.wsj.com/2fgQk62</p> <p>- Equifax Inc hired cyber security experts to deal with an incident on its corporate networks in March, two months before the massive hack began that it has said led to the potential compromise of personal data belonging to 143 million U.S. consumers. on.wsj.com/2ffLGFu</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">FT</span></em></p> <p>Activist investor Nelson Peltz has urged in a letter to shareholders to vote him on the Procter &amp; Gamble Co’s board at next month’s annual meeting.</p> <p>U.S. aircraft maker Boeing Co was warned on Monday that if it presses ahead with a competition case against Bombardier Inc then both Canada and Britain might block future procurement contracts with it.</p> <p>Rolling Stone co-founder Jann Wenner is selling his controlling stake in the magazine amidst revenue declines and suffered circulation as the publishing industry moves from print to digital.</p> <p>Cisco Systems Inc said on Monday Chairman John Chambers is going to step down. His departure comes as the company is going through an upheaval in its business caused by the rise of cloud computing.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">NYT</span></em></p> <p>- Federal authorities have opened a criminal investigation into the massive data breach at Equifax, which potentially exposed the personal information of up to 143 million Americans, including their Social Security and driver's license numbers. nyti.ms/2fggCVS</p> <p>- Congressional efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act sprang back to life on Monday as Senate Republicans pushed for a showdown vote on new legislation that would do away with many of the health law's requirements and bundle its funding into giant block grants to the states. nyti.ms/2xsUsGE</p> <p>- U.S. President Donald Trump's administration officials, under pressure from the White House to provide a rationale for reducing the number of refugees allowed into the United States next year, rejected a study by the Department of Health and Human Services that found that refugees brought in $63 billion more in government revenues over the past decade than they cost. nyti.ms/2xbwHmS</p> <p>- Workers at a General Motors assembly plant in Ontario went on strike late Sunday as union leaders reported an impasse in talks to keep Canadian jobs from moving to Mexico. nyti.ms/2ylq1Qz</p> <p>- Under a federal settlement, the National Collegiate Student Loan Trusts will refund millions to borrowers and temporarily suspend debt collections. nyti.ms/2ff7IYL </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Canada</span></em></p> <p>THE GLOBE AND MAIL</p> <p>** Torxen Resources Ltd, led by former Cenovus Energy Inc Chief Operating Officer John Brannan, is leading a bid to acquire a major Alberta natural gas property from his former employer, a deal that could be worth up to C$600 million ($489 million), sources say. tgam.ca/2hbQlIR</p> <p>** Mortgage Professionals Canada say tougher borrowing rules proposed by Canada's banking regulator, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions, could reduce the volume of home sales in Canada by 10-15 percent annually as buyers find it harder to qualify for loans. tgam.ca/2hf4oK4</p> <p>** The number of women serving on the boards of Toronto Stock Exchange-listed companies edged roughly two percentage points higher in the first half of the year, according to a new report by law firm Osler Hoskin &amp; Harcourt LLP. tgam.ca/2hcvHIE</p> <p>NATIONAL POST</p> <p>** The Fraser Institute said in a report released on Tuesday that Ontario's plan to increase the province's minimum wage to C$15 per hour by 2019 could increase the chance that less skilled workers, especially young people, will be "priced out" of a tougher labour market. bit.ly/2heHBOA</p> <p>** The Ontario plant where about 2,800 General Motors of Canada Co auto workers decide to strike Sunday is "the poster child for what's wrong with NAFTA", the union president of Unifor Local 88 Dan Borthwick said after negotiators failed to reach a tentative agreement. bit.ly/2hfQuaz</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Britain</span></em></p> <p>The Times</p> <p>-Theresa May has summoned ministers to a special cabinet meeting at which she will seek to bind Boris Johnson to her vision of Brexit on the eve of a key speech this week. bit.ly/2w4RPHs</p> <p>-The alleged Parsons Green attacker may have built his bomb in a shed at the bottom of the back garden of his Surrey foster home, police have said. bit.ly/2f6HRPe</p> <p>The Guardian</p> <p>-The government needs to step in to help tackle the mountain of debt being racked up by consumers in Britain, the chief financial regulator has warned, as new data shows that personal debt burdens are continuing to rise. bit.ly/2w3ln8z</p> <p>-Chris Geoghegan, father of the Bell Pottinger executive at the centre of the South Africa scandal that brought down the City PR firm, has resigned from his role as a board member of London-listed pest control and hygiene firm Rentokil Initial Plc .</p> <p>The Telegraph</p> <p>-The row over state subsidies for Canadian planemaker Bombardier Inc topped talks between Theresa May and Justin Trudeau, with the British and Canadian prime ministers vowing to fight to protect jobs in their countries. bit.ly/2w3wlLj</p> <p>-Ryanair could have to fork out 20 million euros ($23.92 million) in compensation as it moved to cancel the flights of roughly 400,000 passengers after admitting to "messing up" the allocation of holiday to its pilots. bit.ly/2f6DBz2</p> <p>Sky News</p> <p>-British holiday carrier Monarch Airlines is working with KPMG on options for the sale or restructuring of its short-haul business through a joint venture or feeder deal with another airline. bit.ly/2w4SiJI</p> <p>-The entrepreneurs who founded TransferWise, Taavet Hinrikus and Kirsto Kaarmann, are poised to land windfalls worth millions of pounds by selling their first shares in the company they founded six years ago. bit.ly/2w4jqbJ</p> <p>The Independent</p> <p>-Uber will have to pay 2.9 million pounds ($3.92 million) over the next five years to operate in London, under a new licensing fee structure due to be introduced by Transport for London this week. ind.pn/2w3wxu1</p> <p>-Michael Kors Holdings Ltd is set to complete its proposed 900 million pounds ($1.22 billion) takeover of Jimmy Choo Plc after more than 98 percent of shareholders of the luxury shoemaker backed the bid at a meeting. ind.pn/2f7rQIO</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/frontrunning-september-19#comments 2ffLGFu FT Bill Gross Bitly Boeing Bond Business Business Department of Health and Human Services Donald Trump eastern Caribbean Economy of the United States Equifax Finance Fraser Institute General Motors Google Insider Trading Iran Mexico Natural Gas Nelson Peltz New York City North Korea Obamacare Puerto Rico Republican Party Reuters Senate smartphone Thomson Reuters U.S. President Donald Trump's administration United Nations US Federal Reserve Volatility White House White House Tue, 19 Sep 2017 12:11:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 603760 at http://www.zerohedge.com Global Debt Bubble Understated By $13 Trillion Warn BIS http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/global-debt-bubble-understated-13-trillion-warn-bis <p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/global-debt-bubble-understated-13-trillion-warn-bis/">Global Debt &nbsp;Bubble Understated By $13 Trillion Warn BIS</a></strong></span></span></p> <p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></span></span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Global debt bubble may be understated by $13 trillion: BIS</strong><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><br />- 'Central banks central bank' warns&nbsp;enormous liabilities have accrued in FX swaps, currency swaps &amp; ‘forwards’<br />- Risk of new&nbsp;liquidity crunch and global debt crisis<br />-&nbsp;<em>“The debt remains obscured from view...”</em>&nbsp;warn BIS</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/06/29/iif%20total%20debt%201_0.png" width="500" height="334" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" class="alignnone size-large" /></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Global debt may be under-reported by around $13 trillion because traditional accounting practices exclude foreign exchange derivatives used to hedge international trade and foreign currency bonds, the BIS said on Sunday.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Bank for International Settlements researchers said it was hard to assess the risk this “missing” debt poses, but that the main worry was a liquidity crunch like the one that seized FX swap and forwards markets during the financial crisis.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The $13 trillion unaccounted-for exposure exceeds the on-balance-sheet debt of $10.7 trillion that data shows was owed by firms and governments outside the United States at end-March.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The fact these FX derivatives do not appear on financial and non-financial institutions’ balance sheets under current accounting rules means little is known about where the debt lies.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">“The debt remains obscured from view,” Claudio Borio, head of the BIS’s monetary and economic department, and two colleagues, Robert McCauley and Patrick McGuire, said in its latest quarterly report.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">“Accounting conventions leave it mostly off-balance sheet, as a derivative, even though it is in effect a secured loan with principal to be repaid in full at maturity,” BIS said.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Explaining the risk they added: “In particular, the short maturity of most FX swaps and forwards can create big maturity mismatches and hence generate large liquidity demands, especially during times of stress.”</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">When buying a foreign asset, a domestic investor has three choices: buy a currency forward, undertake an FX swap or do a repurchase transaction.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">But while the first two are recorded on balance sheets on a net basis without taking the notional amount into consideration, a repo transaction is recorded on a gross basis, when all these three types of trades are essentially similar - secured debt.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">All these trades are used to remove the foreign exchange risk in a purchase of foreign securities.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">In a swap, two parties exchange currencies and agree to reverse the swap later. In a forward contract the parties agree to exchange currencies at a fixed date and price in the future.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Swaps and forwards amounted to more than $3 trillion a day last year, equivalent to more than 60 percent of total FX turnover, the BIS said. More than 90 percent of the market was in dollars and FX swaps accounted for 75 percent of the total.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">They are also overwhelmingly short-term. Three-quarters of positions had a maturity of less than a year at the end of 2016.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Though the outstanding amount of FX swaps and forward contracts has quadrupled since the early 2000s to $58 trillion - almost three times the $21 trillion value of world trade - it dropped after the financial crisis, reflecting a drop in hedging needs as both trade and investments collapsed.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The BIS said non-financial users employ FX forwards and currency swaps for speculation and to hedge international trade and foreign currency bonds.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Institutional investors, asset managers and hedge funds used forwards to hedge their holdings and take positions while financial firms used swaps to hedge international bonds.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">While this debt is mostly secured as counterparties usually enter into forward transactions to reduce currency exposure, the make-up of these largely short-term transactions means they are often the most vulnerable to strains in the financial system.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For example, European banks increased their reliance on these money market instruments during the global financial crisis to secure their dollar funding while the collapse of the structured products markets during the crisis sent shockwaves rippling through the system.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">“Markets calmed only after coordinated central bank swap lines to supply dollars to non-U.S. banks became unlimited in October 2008,” the BIS report said.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">As for who is lending the dollars to non-U.S. banks, the BIS said the funding came from U.S. banks, central banks European agencies, supranational organizations and private non-banks.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">“All of these appear to provide some funding, with U.S. banks and central banks together closing about half the gap,” it said.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bis-debt-currencies/global-debt-may-be-understated-by-13-trillion-bis-idUSKCN1BS0OG?il=0" target="_blank">Source: Global debt may be understated by $13 trillion: BIS - Reuters</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Related Content</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-good-store-value-protect-217-trillion-global-debt-bubble/" target="_blank">Gold Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble</a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/debt-bubble-ireland-globally-sees-wealthy-diversify-gold/" target="_blank">Global Debt&nbsp;Bubble Sees Wealthy Diversify Into Gold</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/world-is-now-199-trillion-in-debt/">World Is Now $199 Trillion In Debt</a><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/debt-bubble-ireland-globally-sees-wealthy-diversify-gold/" target="_blank"><br /></a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>News and&nbsp;Commentary</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/global-precious/precious-gold-edges-up-as-dollar-eases-markets-brace-for-fed-meeting-idUKL4N1M007L">Gold edges up as dollar eases; markets brace for Fed meeting (Reuters.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-struggles-at-multiweek-lows-as-stocks-march-yet-higher-2017-09-18">Gold ends at 3-week low as U.S. stock indexes tap record highs (MarketWatch.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-18/yen-steady-after-two-day-loss-stock-futures-rise-markets-wrap">Stocks in Asia Rise; Yen Steady After Two-Day Loss (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/world-stocks-reach-new-peak-as-fed-focused-week-begins-idUSKCN1BT010">World stocks reach new peak as Fed-focused week begins (Reuters.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/builder-confidence-slips-in-september-on-worries-about-labor-materials-availability-2017-09-18?mod=MW_story_latest_news">Builder confidence slips in September on worries about labor, materials availability (MarketWatch.com)</a></strong></p> <div class="mceTemp" style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"> <dl class="wp-caption alignnone" style="margin-bottom: 0px; max-width: 100%; width: 1484px;"> <dt class="wp-caption-dt"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/put-to-call-advances-gold-etf.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/put-to-call-advances-gold-etf.png" width="1474" height="906" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block;" /></a></dt> <dd class="wp-caption-dd" style="font-size: 14px; padding-top: 0.5em; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px;">Source: Bloomberg</dd> </dl> </div> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-bis-debt-currencies/global-debt-may-be-understated-by-13-trillion-bis-idUSKCN1BS0OG?il=0">Global debt may be underestimated by $13 trillion, BIS warns (Reuters.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-18/spdr-gold-etf-highlights-market-confusion-as-traders-await-fed">Largest Gold ETF Highlights Bullion Traders’ Confusion (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-18/us-f-35s-b-1bs-and-korean-f-15ks-hold-mock-bombing-drills">In "Warning To Pyongyang", B-1B Bombers, F-35s Hold Mock Bombing Drills (ZeroHedge.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/india-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-legal-tender/">India Considers Issuing Its Own Bitcoin-Like Cryptocurrency as Legal Tender (Bitcoin.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.plata.com.mx/Mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?fiidarticulo=322">Mexican Congress Debates the Monetization of the ‘Libertad’ Silver Ounce (Plata.com.mx)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Gold Prices (LBMA AM)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">19 Sep: USD 1,308.45, GBP 969.30 &amp; EUR 1,091.25 per ounce<br />18 Sep: USD 1,314.40, GBP 970.16 &amp; EUR 1,100.68 per ounce<br />15 Sep: USD 1,325.00, GBP 977.32 &amp; EUR 1,109.16 per ounce<br />14 Sep: USD 1,323.00, GBP 1,002.44 &amp; EUR 1,111.58 per ounce<br />13 Sep: USD 1,332.25, GBP 1,003.85 &amp; EUR 1,112.43 per ounce<br />12 Sep: USD 1,326.25, GBP 1,000.66 &amp; EUR 1,109.41 per ounce<br />11 Sep: USD 1,338.75, GBP 1,015.31 &amp; EUR 1,114.24 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Silver Prices (LBMA)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">19 Sep: USD 17.15, GBP 12.70 &amp; EUR 14.31 per ounce<br />18 Sep: USD 17.53, GBP 12.94 &amp; EUR 14.66 per ounce<br />15 Sep: USD 17.70, GBP 13.03 &amp; EUR 14.81 per ounce<br />14 Sep: USD 17.75, GBP 13.40 &amp; EUR 14.91 per ounce<br />13 Sep: USD 17.91, GBP 13.50 &amp; EUR 14.94 per ounce<br />12 Sep: USD 17.75, GBP 13.37 &amp; EUR 14.87 per ounce<br />11 Sep: USD 17.85, GBP 13.51 &amp; EUR 14.86 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><br />Recent Market Updates</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/bitcoin-price-falls-40-3-days-underlining-golds-safe-haven-credentials/">-&nbsp;Bitcoin Price Falls 40% In 3 Days Underlining Gold’s Safe Haven Credentials</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-markets-fatigued-war-talk-boils/">-&nbsp;Gold Up, Markets Fatigued As War Talk Boils Over</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/oil-rich-venezuela-stops-accepting-dollars/">-&nbsp;Oil Rich Venezuela Stops Accepting Dollars</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/massive-equifax-hack-shows-cyber-risk-deposits-investments-today/">-&nbsp;Massive Equifax Hack Shows Cyber Risk to Deposits and Investments Today</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/british-people-suddenly-stopped-buying-cars/">-&nbsp;British People Suddenly Stopped Buying Cars</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/buy-gold-long-term-fiat-money-doomed/">-&nbsp;Buy Gold for Long Term as “Fiat Money Is Doomed”</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/conor-mcgregor-worth-weight-gold/">-&nbsp;Conor McGregor – Worth His Weight In Gold?</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-2-weekly-gain18-higher-ytd-trumps-debt-ceiling-deal-hurts-dollar/">-&nbsp;Gold Has 2% Weekly Gain,18% Higher YTD – Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal Hurts Dollar</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/things-going-long-goldman-ceo/">-&nbsp;‘Things Have Been Going Up For Too Long’ – Goldman CEO</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/physical-gold-in-vault-is-true-hedge-of-last-resort-goldman-sachs/">-&nbsp;Physical Gold In Vault Is “True Hedge of Last Resort” – Goldman Sachs</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/bitcoin-falls-20-mobius-chinese-regulators-warn/">-&nbsp;Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/precious-metals-outperform-markets-in-august-gold-4-silver-5/">-&nbsp;Gold Surges To $1338 as U.S. Warns of ‘Massive’ Military Response</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/precious-metals-outperform-markets-august-gold-4-silver-5/">-&nbsp;Precious Metals Outperform Markets In August – Gold +4%, Silver +5%</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Important&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956il">Guides</span></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For your perusal, below are our&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">most</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">popular</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">guides</span>&nbsp;in 2017:</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*N5MhbFRBkTqXW95dlRy194d-P0/5/f18dQhb0S5ft8X-f1rW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1ZW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHmp3PnStQVS9p0b63dhWbW8mp0Tc5x5KNkW7-XB_567h1CPW8r5PXz49z-4PN2MV0Xm5w8jDW1mw3yc59SFsZN4H-tjrQC5z2VPC2cV7gvpc4W4XYhBl2y9PQJW4sxqtN7h5hQFW28TbSB2Cg_LLW96LzRy5DkRJDW5BRXXj2y4Lc7N3Kd2SV_-Nf6W3brNsz66rKFTW2xH0xz1lcG1VVQBGcH5DQdGhN22JjmzdPgQwW9464-Y5GFs9DW4Rj6Nh6BzJrnN45Ly2MkwRN4W8qYMH51FnsVDW2X9_p02MVHnbN2GZdYq215_BW1J7MZd3mgJK7W4F32xR1JjtM5W4Bn5JG3ZzLH2W5jL56q7dkHC7W3VtW1b1MWhN-W1MKd944yqBfl111" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Switzerland</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W5Hh19S2J1j6jW1gxPj45yTRLt0/5/f18dQhb0S5fw8X-fbXW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1YW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHjG25x99KVwyMQc6PVJWyW625bx16Gj8TSW6bVy-525hjVhW83KHrF7J39qHN2m8DqKmmF0wW1jsTjn5VDnrHVbq5fx4TKc2lW6Rjg6t5Pk17jW2xZzRk8LpcPpW36k5sF4FnHNZW1mvfQB2BpzSjN1mT8mr2g4dYW5VZ-P_37vq3BW2--Tfh1w3GzfW5CkFpW6ZccdyW5vvKY_3N2S6fW3KRSNH8yxr7CW7YJp821cQlwRW63x06S1bBvW3W408wWR11rnNbV4Vjkz6NjfdLW55Fr2P5nn1d6W301cwV4GX00sW5hfR428jJDdkW4Cy2w54wj2JxVMFy4w4hyJQMV6N2-D1mPRd4N6YRN0Y4ZDMLD2LMBk7BT1f5Fq5PC03" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Singapore</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W7dc5x_8dXcz0W57pb-W8yRfPY0/5/f18dQhb0Sjv98X-fhGW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrBCVW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z0sTg7mCbb0W57V1HT7tVHF9W8Z32tg35s628W859LV685kgn-W5mG2963qCNtmW8hTG4j5Zh496W2d551v3pNnKLVLrb9R83_Pn-W7JCxGl81bhDKW7N_KqM11GBXTW41TlcR3TwTqzW19BjML1ks0KjW7RPZVs5-2sjBW7ZzDyK7GLjPjW2KH_vB6SdpRZW1hx1p11Gg3W9W6rwy5K1YZKs5W2gFslL6NqPjwW1tbMwf7n90PHW67SS1j224DVBW6SdFBY1S1FW8W1Th1-Q1X2dwGW1swLvy81myPRW1B9M4Q6SdHPtW7C3gqS89xKZ9W1Ms6WG19gjwJN42ktpLPs031VgkKmy5qqk_FW41Q13s3srYmmW2-yGlm4v9PYhVmLW2J4r5l5jW7fnqv3187HWVW794lJw3T7yBDW1Zq0mT90vVQHW7SNfQy7BfhjRN3QzSrFQN_TjVcGblm3cFvNY0" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-19/global-debt-bubble-understated-13-trillion-warn-bis#comments BIS Bitcoin Business Central Banks Counterparties Currency swap Debt Ceiling Derivative Economy Finance Financial crisis of 2007–2008 fixed Foreign exchange market Foreign exchange option Foreign exchange swap goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Hedge India Institutional Investors Mexican Congress Monetization Money Precious Metals Reuters Secured Debt Sovereigns Swap Switzerland Systemic risk US Federal Reserve World Trade Yen Tue, 19 Sep 2017 11:44:43 +0000 GoldCore 603756 at http://www.zerohedge.com