http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/draghi/cbo en For First Time Ever, Mutual Funds Slash Uber Valuation By Up To 15% http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/first-time-ever-mutual-funds-slash-uber-valuation-15 <p>Exactly two weeks ago, we asked if Uber - the world's most valuable private company - <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-08/uber-heading-40-discount-down-round">is heading for a valuation-crushing, 40% discount down-round.</a> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Some of our <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-08/uber-heading-40-discount-down-round">arguments were the following</a>:</p> <ul> <li>First, those hoping for a 'return of the king' moment were disappointed after it was confirmed that Travis Kalanick isn't coming back.</li> <li>Second, the hot money is flowing to Uber's rivals. DiDi Chuxing, China's largest ride-hailing firm, has invested in Middle East online taxi service Careem in a new partnership deal that marks Didi's latest international expansion against rival Uber</li> <li>Third, WSJ recently reported that Uber plans to wind down its U.S. subprime car-leasing division to stem unsustainably high losses</li> <li>Finally, according to recent press reports SoftBank was considering buying Uber shares from Benchmark with The Information noting that the transaction would value Uber at between $40 billion and $45 billion, a 33%-40% drop from the firm's latest $68 billion private round valuation.</li> </ul> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/04/20170808_unicorn1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/04/20170808_unicorn1_0.jpg" width="600" height="268" /></a></p> <p>Two weeks later, we are already half way there because as the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/mutual-funds-mark-down-uber-investments-by-up-to-15-1503443267">WSJ reports</a>, at least four mutual-funds have marked down their investments in Uber by as much as 15% -&nbsp; the first ever price cuts that,&nbsp; suggesting that the endless volley of scandals and bad news chasing the ridesharing company has finally caught up with it.&nbsp; </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Vanguard Group, Principal and Hartford Funds all marked down their shares by 15% to $41.46 a share for the quarter ended June 30, according to the fund companies’ latest disclosure documents. T. Rowe Price Group Inc. TROW 1.51% cut the estimated price of its Uber shares by about 12% to $42.70 for the same period.</p> </blockquote> <p>Since Uber shares don’t trade publicly (yet, maybe never) mutual-fund holders must estimate the shares’ worth each quarter and mark them to estimate. According to the WSJ, seven mutual-fund companies had mostly maintained a $48.77 share price since the fourth quarter of 2015, when Uber first sold its shares to investors at that price.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Mutual-fund companies determine the valuations for closely held companies by a special committee that sits apart from the portfolio managers who buy and sell stocks. To value illiquid shares, such committees typically look to a company’s financial information, the value of publicly traded rivals, and share prices paid by investors in previous funding rounds.</p> </blockquote> <p>Meanwhile, with Uber's dirty laundry in danger of being "discovered" following the recent lawsuit by early investor Benchmark, the company's search for a replacement to Kalanick appears to have hit a roadblock. Worse, since the latest legal feud began earlier this month subsequent to the mutual-fund filings’ June 30 ending date, and has since spiraled into a broader battle among shareholders, it is likely that even more acute writedowns will be taken in the coming days. </p> <p>Meanwhile, the most troubling news for Uber is neither who sits in the corner office, nor how many lawsuits it is waging, but its persistent and unrelenting cash burn. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Amid all the controversies, <strong>Uber has sought to shore up its financials after reporting a loss of more than $3 billion last year and $708 million in the first quarter, according to people familiar with the matter</strong>. The company in July combined its money-losing Russian operations with Yandex NV’s Yandex. Taxi, the more popular ride-hailing firm there. <strong>Uber is also winding down its U.S. subprime auto-leasing business after realizing losses per vehicle were $9,000 on average, 18 times what was previously believed</strong>, according to people familiar with the matter.</p> </blockquote> <p>To be sure, Uber has some time before it has to panic: the company had about $7 billion in cash at the end of Q1, and its revenue totaled over $3 billion in the three-month period, up 18% from the fourth quarter. Of course, by the time Uber's balance sheet becomes a matter of attention, the company's valuation will be a shadow of its $68 billion peak. That would be bad news for at least seven mutual-fund companies who own shares in Uber. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Several of them first buying in during a 2014 funding around at $15.51 a share. The price has roughly tripled since then through a series of funding rounds, but Uber hasn’t raised new capital since last year at the $48.77 price.</p> </blockquote> <p>And now it's time for the dreaded down-rounds. </p> <p>Of course, should the world's "most valuable private company" fail to go public before its first down round, it would have a huge chilling effect on the rest of the VC and IPO market. Meanwhile, even as most "Unicorns" have opted to stay private for now amid a pullback in startup funding and questions about overheated valuations, some companies backed by mutual funds have recently dared to IPO with largely adverse consequences. These include Snap, whose stock has fallen about 17% from its IPO price, and Blue Apron Inc., whose shares have cut in half since the public offering two months ago. </p> <p>As for Uber, the golden child, or rather gold-plated unicorn, of the VC world, is about to get reacquainted with valuation gravity. Which, in light of its broadly deflationary impact on a broad range of industries that simply soak up VC funding in a futile war for market share, may be just what the Federal Reserve - not to mention thousands of depressed taxicab Medallion owners - ordered. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="768" height="396" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/uber%20teaer%204_0.jpg?1503452877" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/first-time-ever-mutual-funds-slash-uber-valuation-15#comments Business Car sharing Commuting Didi Chuxing Economy Fail Federal Reserve Finance Location-based software Market Share Medallion Middle East Middle East Money Transportation network companies Travis Kalanick Uber Uberisation Unicorn US Federal Reserve Wed, 23 Aug 2017 01:50:08 +0000 Tyler Durden 602157 at http://www.zerohedge.com Watch Live: President Trump Speaks At Rally In Phoenix Following "Underwhelming" Protests http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/watch-live-president-trump-speaks-rally-phoenix-following-underwhelming-protests <p>Amid<strong> underwhelming protests</strong>, and in the<strong> absence of Republican Governor Doug Ducey</strong>, President Trump is set to hold a campaign-style rally in Phoenix tonight that may be must-watch for a number of reasons.&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170822_az.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170822_az_0.png" style="width: 600px; height: 324px;" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/347488-five-things-to-watch-as-trump-heads-to-arizona"><em>As The Hill reports</em></a>, Trump is expected to use the podium in Phoenix to<strong> defend his hard-line approach on immigration and to pressure Congress for more than $1 billion to build the southern border wall</strong> that was at the core of his presidential campaign.</p> <p>This is President Trump&#39;s first publica rally since &#39;Nazi-gate&#39; and while local officials had prepare for a storm of protests (with the city&#39;s mayor asking for the rally to be relocated), the protests were &quot;underwhelming.&quot;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">And the pronoun has turned: &quot;Lock him up&quot; chants ring in Phoenix <a href="https://t.co/309AH14xGR">pic.twitter.com/309AH14xGR</a></p> <p>&mdash; Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) <a href="https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/900148906985529344">August 23, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">VIDEO: Trump rally in downtown Phoenix: Supporters, protesters meet at convention center <a href="https://t.co/vJSAJE87hJ">pic.twitter.com/vJSAJE87hJ</a></p> <p>&mdash; azcentral (@azcentral) <a href="https://twitter.com/azcentral/status/900159157679960064">August 23, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Puerto Rican Trump supporter blasts CNN ahead of Phoenix rally: &#39;You&rsquo;re the real racists and fascists!&#39; <a href="https://t.co/nqday5Aa7j">pic.twitter.com/nqday5Aa7j</a></p> <p>&mdash; Josh Caplan (@joshdcaplan) <a href="https://twitter.com/joshdcaplan/status/900117847304806400">August 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Trump&#39;s speech is sure to be full of his usual vim and vigor, and <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/347488-five-things-to-watch-as-trump-heads-to-arizona">The Hill</a> notes<strong> five things to watch out for...</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><h3><u><strong>Arizona illustrates Trump&rsquo;s fraught relationship with his own party.</strong></u></h3> <p>While Trump won Arizona in November, he&rsquo;s been openly feuding with the state&rsquo;s two Republican senators, John McCain and Jeff Flake, both of whom are frequent Trump critics. Trump last week called Flake, who&rsquo;s up for re-election in 2018, &ldquo;a non-factor in the Senate&rdquo; and &ldquo;toxic&rdquo; in a tweet that also welcomed a primary challenge to him from former State Senator Kelli Ward. That prompted several senior Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, to come out with statements of support for Flake. <strong>Neither Flake nor McCain is planning to attend Trump&rsquo;s rally.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Flake, whose approval ratings stand below 20 percent, says he&rsquo;s unconcerned with Trump&rsquo;s attacks, which are likely to continue in Phoenix. But Ward is relishing the boost.<strong> Anticipating Trump&rsquo;s speech, she launched a new ad campaign&nbsp;on Monday&nbsp;warning voters that Flake&rsquo;s clash with the president is &ldquo;a huge liability for Arizona.&rdquo; </strong>Sen.&nbsp;<span><a href="http://thehill.com/people/john-mccain">John McCain</a></span>&nbsp;(R-Ariz.) may also prove an irresistible target for the president given his vote to sink the Senate&rsquo;s effort to repeal ObamaCare. McCain also hammered Trump&rsquo;s response to the violence in Charlottesville. &ldquo;There&#39;s no moral equivalency between racists &amp; Americans standing up to defy hate &amp; bigotry,&rdquo; McCain&nbsp;<a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/346732-mccain-trump-needs-state-the-difference-between-bigots-and-those-fighting">tweeted</a>&nbsp;last week. &ldquo;The President of the United States should say so.&rdquo;</p> <h3><u>Sheriff Joe Arpaio</u></h3> <p>Trump recently told Fox News that he&rsquo;s &ldquo;seriously considering&rdquo; pardoning&nbsp;Joe Arpaio, the former sheriff of Maricopa County, Ariz., whose aggressive approach to the detention of undocumented immigrants has made him a national voice for the hard-line enforcement policies championed by the president. A massive rally in Phoenix would be just the place to do that. A federal judge found the 85-year-old Arpaio guilty of contempt of court last month for the &ldquo;flagrant disregard&rdquo; of another judge&rsquo;s 2011 order to stop the racial profiling that came to define Arpaio&rsquo;s immigrant roundups. His sentencing is scheduled for&nbsp;Oct. 5, when he faces a maximum of six months in jail. Arpaio is one of Trump&#39;s oldest political allies. The two men supported each other as far back as 2012, when they were two of the most prominent advocates of &ldquo;birtherism,&rdquo; the claim that then-President Obama was not born in the United States. Arpaio&rsquo;s conviction has become a flashpoint in the largely partisan debate over immigration reform, with both sides watching&nbsp;Trump&rsquo;s actions closely.&nbsp;&nbsp; On Monday, Arizona Rep. Andy Biggs (R), one of Trump&rsquo;s most vocal supporters, urged the president to pardon Arpaio, touting the former sheriff&rsquo;s long public service record. He accused the Obama administration of conducting &ldquo;a witch hunt&rdquo; against him.&nbsp; Some Democrats seem to be expecting the pardon, noting that Trump has come under fire from conservatives for the recent ouster of top strategist Stephen Bannon and may use the Phoenix speech to get back into&nbsp;the critics&rsquo; good graces. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said&nbsp;Monday&nbsp;that pardoning Arpaio might &ldquo;placate [Trump&rsquo;s] xenophobic, racist base.&rdquo; A few hours after this story was published, the White House announced&nbsp;Trump&nbsp;<a href="http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news-other-administration/347542-trump-wont-pardon-sheriff-joe-arpaio-at" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">would not pardon</a>&nbsp;Arpaio at the rally.</p> <h3><u>The wall</u></h3> <p>Trump launched his presidential campaign with an attack on immigrants and a vow to build &ldquo;a beautiful wall&rdquo; on the southern border, paid for by Mexico. But his chief domestic promise has smacked into the political realities of Capitol Hill, where GOP leaders, needing Democratic votes to pass spending bills, have failed to get new construction funding to the president&rsquo;s desk. The issue was a major sticking point in the fight over a 2017 spending bill, when Democrats successfully yanked new wall funding from the package. But Republicans are under pressure to hold a harder line in the 2018 spending debate &mdash; the House has already approved a bill providing $1.6 billion in new wall funding &mdash; and Trump will likely use the stage in Phoenix to elevate the issue. Indeed, in signing the 2017 federal spending bill, a frustrated Trump suggested he&rsquo;d support &ldquo;a good &lsquo;shutdown&rsquo; in September&rdquo; in order to secure more Republican priorities.</p> <h3><u>Race</u></h3> <p>The Arizona rally comes just as the news cycle is finally moving away from Trump&#39;s botched response to Charlottesville, when he said &quot;many sides&quot; were to blame for the violence at the white supremacist rally. The Phoenix rally is expected to attract large groups of supporters and counterprotesters, however, and has the potential to reopen the discussion depending on what Trump says from the stage &mdash; and what happens outside the arena.&nbsp; Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton (D) wrote a Washington Post&nbsp;<a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/phoenix-mayor-greg-stanton-why-i-dont-want-trump-to-come-to-my-city/2017/08/21/e4bb5d46-8679-11e7-961d-2f373b3977ee_story.html?utm_term=.3441c4bf539e">op-ed</a>Monday&nbsp;asking Trump to delay his visit. &ldquo;America is hurting,&rdquo; wrote Stanton. &ldquo;And it is hurting largely because Trump has doused racial tensions with gasoline. With his planned visit to Phoenix&nbsp;on Tuesday, I fear the president may be looking to light a match.&rdquo; Trump took a different tone&nbsp;Monday, in a teleprompter-guided speech laying out his Afghanistan strategy. &ldquo;When we open our hearts to patriotism, there is no room for prejudice, no place for bigotry and no tolerance for hate,&rdquo; said Trump. &ldquo;The young men and women we send to fight our wars abroad deserve to return to a country that is not at war with itself at home.&rdquo;</p> <h3><u>Afghanistan</u></h3> <p>Tuesday&rsquo;s&nbsp;rally comes just a day after the prime-time speech in which Trump outlined the contours of his military strategy in Afghanistan &mdash; a design that includes the deployment of new U.S. troops to the embattled region.</p> <p>The military buildup marks a stark shift for the president, who had been highly critical of prolonging U.S. engagement after 16 years of failing to stabilize the country. On the campaign trail, he won accolades from the &ldquo;America First&rdquo; crowd with his promise of quick troop withdrawal, arguing the resources would be better used for domestic projects.</p> <p>The issue carries a special significance following last week&rsquo;s departure of Bannon, a fierce nationalist who sought to steer Trump away from aggressive interventions into foreign affairs.</p> <p>Bannon, who quickly returned to the helm of Breitbart News, has vowed his continued support of the administration. But the site wasted no time&nbsp;Monday lashing out at Trump&rsquo;s Afghanistan strategy, calling it a &ldquo;flip flop&rdquo; and equating his plan to that of former President Obama, a pariah in the eyes of conservative Breitbart readers.</p> </blockquote> <p>President Trump is due to speak at 10pmET...</p> <p><iframe frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/amA4vT3RI7s" width="560"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="681" height="368" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170822_az.png?1503451614" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/watch-live-president-trump-speaks-rally-phoenix-following-underwhelming-protests#comments Afghanistan American people of German descent Business Climate change skepticism and denial Congress Donald Trump Donald Trump presidential campaign First 100 days of Donald Trump's presidency Fox News Joe Arpaio John McCain John McCain Mexico Obama Administration Obama administration Obamacare Politics President Obama ratings Republican Party Senate Social Issues The Apprentice Twitter Twitter United States White House White House WWE Hall of Fame Wed, 23 Aug 2017 01:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 602155 at http://www.zerohedge.com Better A Year Early Than A Day Too Late http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/better-year-early-day-too-late <p><a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/110293/better-year-early-day-too-late"><em>Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,</em></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em>He who hesitates is lost.</em></p> <div>~proverb</div> </blockquote> <p><strong>Change, especially a collapse scenario, often happens quite fast. So fast that there&#39;s little to no time to react in the short frenzy between &quot;before&quot; and &quot;after&quot;.</strong></p> <p>This is true throughout nature. Glaciers that took millennia to form calve off into the sea in a matter of moments. Old-growth forests filled with thousand-year-old trees can be decimated by a single wildfire. The bubonic plague &quot;Black Death&quot; pandemic of the Middle Ages killed one-third of the Earth&#39;s human population over just four short years.</p> <p><strong>Fast change is also a hallmark of human society. </strong>Movements and ideas -- oftentimes simmering for years, decades or longer -- suddenly reach a critical state in which the populace is swept up into history-making action. The outbreak of World War I. The Civil Rights movement. The dissolution of the USSR. The Digital Age.</p> <p>When it comes, change happens swiftly. And life after -- for better or worse -- is forever different.</p> <p>I&#39;ve witnessed this time and time again since co-founding PeakProsperity.com.<strong> And in pretty much every instance, I notice that the vast majority of people -- including even many of the the watchful and preparation-minded folks who read this site -- are caught by surprise.</strong></p> <h3><u>Fukushima</u></h3> <p>A good example of this was the disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi&nbsp;nuclear power plant in March of 2011. Of course, no one could have foretold the timing and scale of the tsunami, and virtually nobody expected that it could overwhelm the facility as spectacularly as it did. So in the immediate aftermath of the plant&#39;s failure, the world looked on in sympathy, not fear.</p> <p>But on March 12th, that changed as the first of several hydrogen explosions was observed among the reactors. And then my phone rang.</p> <p>It was Chris, my co-founder here at PeakProsperity.com. &quot;I don&#39;t know exactly what that was, but it wasn&#39;t good&quot;, he said. Based on his background in the sciences, his strong assessment was that the situation at the plant was much more serious than was being publicly admitted to.</p> <p>Since I live on the west coast here in the US, he advised me to consider getting a radiation detection/contamination protection kit -- &quot;just in case&quot;. While we both hoped it wouldn&#39;t come to that, I quickly heeded the advice. I placed an order for a kit as well as a shipment of iodine tablets.</p> <p>I was very lucky to have done so. Because just a few short hours later, as the world woke up to the worsening situation at Fukushima, anything related to radioactive contamination was sold out across the US. For <em>months</em>. The supply chain for that stuff was miniscule compared to the demand of a panicked nation.</p> <p>If you were late to game -- and pretty much EVERYBODY but the extreme early-birds like me was -- you were out of luck. And vulnerable.</p> <p>Now, thankfully, as horrible as the on-going crisis there still is (it&#39;s five years later and the radioactive fuel that melted through containment <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/09/fukushima-nuclear-cleanup-falters-six-years-after-tsunami" target="_blank">still remains in a molten state</a>), the worst-case scenario didn&#39;t materialize.</p> <p>But I still keep my contamination kit handy. More than anything else as a reminder of how fast things can change. And of the outsized value of early action.</p> <h3><u>Oroville Dam</u></h3> <p>More recently, we saw a similarly swift devolution of events at California&#39;s Oroville&nbsp;Dam this year. The west coast had suffered an especially wet winter, and an arrival of a Pineapple Express in February didn&#39;t help the situation.</p> <p>California residents were focused on flooding and mudslides in the usual places -- no one had any inkling that there was risk of larger infrastructure failures, let alone one at the tallest dam in the US. And, as the water levels rose at the Oroville&nbsp;Dam, the communication from state authorities was &quot;All is fine. All is under control. There&#39;s nothing to worry about&quot; -- until suddenly a mass evacuation of over 200,000 residents living downstream&nbsp;was ordered.</p> <p>Not surprisingly, the subsequent panicked scramble resulted in tremendous traffic jams, slowing down the evacuation&nbsp;to a snail&#39;s pace. Residents had no time to prepare, buy supplies (if there were enough in their area to purchase), or line up a safe destination they could head for. They just had to grab what they could and flee as best they were able.</p> <p>Again, everything appeared fine right up until the tipping point. Those with the foresight beforehand to pack a to-go bag, arrange a bug-out crash pad -- or better yet -- leave for a safer location until the waters stopped rising, fared much better than the herd who waited.</p> <h3><u>2008 Financial Crisis</u></h3> <p>On a more economic note, I&#39;ve pointed out in a number of past articles how quickly things went south during the 2008 financial crisis. Even pundits like Chris and I, who warned for years it was very likely coming, were still shocked by how viciously it struck.</p> <p>Most folks have preferred to forget how quickly the bubble popped. Between September and October, the S&amp;P 500 lost <span style="text-decoration: underline;">one-third</span> of its value. <em>Poof!</em></p> <p>Of course, the S&amp;P then continued falling through March, ending at over 50% lower than its pre-crisis high. Millions of jobs were lost over these months. And the prices of other major assets from houses to bonds were savaged, too.</p> <p>It all happened so quickly that most investors and homeowners were simply overwhelmed by the shock. Unsure what to do, they simply watched the price of their assets continue to fall -- praying for the carnage to end.</p> <h2><u>Timing Isn&#39;t Everything. Positioning Is.</u></h2> <p>They say that <em>Timing is everything</em>. I disagree.</p> <p>Trying to time disruptive events is a fool&#39;s errand. In the years I&#39;ve been involved in running this business, I&#39;ve seen too many people make big bets (portfolio allocation, geographic relocation, job change, etc) because they were rock-solidly convinced a major change event was &#39;imminent&#39;. Most of those folks eventually regretted the cost of their haste as the status quo muddled on much longer than they&#39;d expected.</p> <p>Anyone who predicts with exactitude about the <em><strong>when</strong></em> of future events is deluding either you or themselves. More likely, both.</p> <p>BUT, we can predict the&nbsp;<em><strong>what</strong></em>&nbsp;(i.e., what will happen) with much greater precision. And that&#39;s where advantage can be gained.</p> <p>For instance, many of those paying attention in the years leading up to 2008 had arrived at the conclusion that bad policies and overly-loose lending standards had resulted in mal-investment on such a grand scale that a massive clearing event was inevitable. Did they know the date of the tipping point? No. But they knew the probability for a major financial crisis increased with each year.</p> <p>Those who positioned themselves -- prudently -- in advance avoided the losses that everyone else took. As <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Big-Short-Inside-Doomsday-Machine/dp/0393338827" target="_blank">The Big Short</a> detailed, some were even able to profit wildly from their foresight (though admittedly, this was just a rarified few).</p> <p>The adjective &quot;prudently&quot; is important here, because here at PeakProsperity.com we emphasize risk management, not speculation. Our goal is to maximize our odds for prospering no matter which future outcome arrives. Yes, the intent is to enjoy the best (risk-adjusted) return in building our wealth as possible. But it&#39;s important to understand that sometimes &#39;prospering&#39; simply means losing less than we would have otherwise, should events go against our expectations.</p> <p>So for those looking to protect and growth their wealth, our advice is to focus on the<strong>&nbsp;positioning</strong> for highly-predictable events rather than their <strong>timing</strong>.&nbsp;</p> <p>This is the same logic underlying an insurance policy. Illness/injury, car accidents, house fires -- the timing of these, if they happen at all, is unknowable. But should they happen, insurance only has value to you <strong>if you procured it in advance</strong>.</p> <p>The exact same is true across the spectrum of the <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/page/what-should-i-do" target="_blank">Eight Forms Of Capital</a> (for those unfamiliar with this framework, it&#39;s the guidance we offer for building &quot;true wealth&quot; in life). Don&#39;t wait to invest in your health until you&#39;ve developed a chronic condition. Don&#39;t put off building community before a crisis (injury, job loss, etc) forces you to ask for help from others. Don&#39;t forget about creating an emergency kit until some disaster (hurricane, earthquake, flood, etc) hits.</p> <p><strong>For those who put off taking advance action, it may be simply &quot;too late&quot; in a number of scenarios should the status quo quickly change.</strong></p> <p><u><strong>Don&#39;t be an &#39;avoidable victim&#39;.</strong></u> For the events you calculate are likely to happen, assess your current level of preparedness and take steps now to shore up any deficiencies. As you do this, ask yourself: <em>What would I absolutely regret not having in place should this happen tomorrow?</em> Make that list your top priority.</p> <p>To help you in this, we have a self-assessment form, which you can <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/act" target="_blank">download for free here</a>. We use it at our annual seminar each year, so it&#39;s pretty well-honed at this point.</p> <p>After taking it, some folks prefer to go a step further and schedule a consultation with Chris to discuss their personal situation and get his experienced perspective on their plans as they take shape. If interested, you can learn more about <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/consulting" target="_blank">how to do that here</a>.</p> <p><strong>But the main focus here is to prioritize the key steps to take in advance of any potential life-altering events that concern you.</strong></p> <p>For example, anyone who reads PeakProsperity.com should know that Chris and I think a major market correction is long overdue. We anticipate price drops of a similar magnitude as seen during the 2008 crisis, and possibly even worse. (For those new to this site, read: <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/107199/mother-all-financial-bubbles" target="_blank">The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles</a>)</p> <p>If you share our conclusion, are you positioned prudently should the market correction arrive tomorrow?</p> <p>Remember that in 2008, most people didn&#39;t expect the market to fall. Folks believed: <em>It&#39;s different this time.</em>&nbsp;Yet when the market started tanking in September, it happened so quickly that investors had already lost a third of their portfolio&#39;s value by the time their October statements arrived in the mail. At that point, most were psychologically unprepared, and simply held on, praying that the market would go back up. And still prices kept falling for months after.</p> <p>Don&#39;t let this happen to you. Determine what your minimum acceptable positioning should be and then make sure it&#39;s in place. Even if it&#39;s as simple as just holding more of your investment portfolio in boring old cash. (Feel free to read our <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/87196/how-hedge-against-market-correction" target="_blank">How To Hedge Against A Market Correction</a> guide for additional ideas). I myself just updated readers on how I <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/insider/110219/just-added-my-short-position" target="_blank">recently increased my short positions</a> within my portfolio.</p> <p>Yet it still surprises me how many people I talk with regularly who agree the risk of a market correction is uncomfortably high, but have not yet begun to position themselves accordingly.</p> <p>For example, a large number of folks have had free consultations with <a href="https://www.greylockpeak.com/" target="_blank">our endorsed financial advisor</a> since the start of 2017, each very concerned to protect their financial wealth should a market correction happen. Many indeed plan to open accounts, but haven&#39;t yet -- remaining invested in their existing long positions for the time being. Why? Because they&#39;ve been making money over the past several years, and can&#39;t yet wean themselves off of the central bank gravy train even though their brains tell them it will inevitably come to an abrupt and painful end.</p> <p>If you&#39;re one of these folks, please reflect for a moment. No one can predict when the next market downturn will happen. By the time it does, your capital needs to have already been positioned smartly in advance. It will do you a lot less good to try to sell after taking an initial round of losses. And at that point, emotionally, you might find yourself too shell-shocked to take action. There might even be restrictions placed on access to your funds if the situation gets bad enough. So is today&#39;s urge to wait &#39;just a little bit longer&#39; worth the risk?</p> <p>Only you can determine if and when to transfer any of your capital over. But if you&#39;ve already made the decision in your mind to eventually do so (as many of you have expressed), then a prudent step is to simply fill out the paperwork to open an account now. You can deal with any transfers later. Doing this is a small investment of your energy in the here and now, but will save you valuable time, stress and potential uncertainty should you decide to move your money there urgently in the future. So whether you plan to work with our endorsed adviser or another one you like even better, remove as much &#39;friction&#39; as you can today that could threaten to derail your goals for tomorrow.&nbsp;</p> <p>The same logic applies to nearly anyone concerned by <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/video/85827/playlist/92161/crash-course-chapter-2-three-es" target="_blank">the Three E&#39;s</a> discussed in The Crash Course:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Homeowners looking to sell before the next housing downturn </strong>-- With <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/house-price-bubbles-20-pictures" target="_blank">more and more major markets topping out</a>, have you determined a time frame by which you&#39;d like to have your house sold? Have you identified the broker/agent you&#39;d like to use? Have you calculated your desired listing price?</li> <li><strong>Account holders at Too Big To Fail banks</strong> -- If you&#39;re planning on eventually moving your cash to an alternative provider with less exposure to derivative risk or the potential for a &quot;bail-in&quot;, have you identified the specific credit union/savings bank/private vault/etc yet? Have you conducted a test transfer yet?</li> <li><strong>Those considering buying cryptocurrency for the first time</strong>&nbsp;-- Have you learned how to purchase them yet? Which coin(s) do you want to buy? Are you going to use an exchange? Which one? How do you plan to store your coins? Have you lined up that solution yet?</li> <li><strong>Those switching to a de-growth lifestyle</strong> -- Where do you want to live? What will your homestead needs be? Will you keep your current job or need to re-skill? Will your new lifestyle depend more on others? If these answers require any life changes, have you made any of them yet?</li> <li>And on and on...</li> </ul> <p>In all of these cases, the benefits of taking action on the essential steps today, in advance of a future date by which you may desperately want those steps to have been taken, are clear.</p> <p>Most folks just need a little nudge or inspiration to get started. Consider this your call to action. For those who haven&#39;t thoroughly utilized them yet, our free <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/page/what-should-i-do" target="_blank">What Should I Do? Guide</a>, as well as our book <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/95104/our-new-book-prosper" target="_blank">Prosper!: How to Prepare for the Future and Create a World Worth Inheriting</a> are chock full of our best guidance and recommendations.</p> <p><u><em><strong>As Chris has often said about preparing for events that have large downside risks: It&#39;s much better to be a year early than a day late.</strong></em></u></p> <p>Very wise words.</p> <p>What would you regret most being a day late on? Whatever your answer, focus your attention there -- today.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="281" height="133" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170822_care.png?1503435155" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/better-year-early-day-too-late#comments credit union Economy Economy of the United States ETC Fail Finance Financial crisis of 2007–2008 Great Recession Great Recession in the United States Money Nuclear Power Political positions of Mitt Romney Presidency of Barack Obama radiation Risk Risk Management S&P S&P 500 Subprime mortgage crisis SWIFT Too Big To Fail West Coast Wed, 23 Aug 2017 01:25:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 602139 at http://www.zerohedge.com Dr. Pieczenik Unloads On Trump Administration Over 'Disastrous' Afghanistan Decision http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/dr-pieczenik-unloads-trump-administration-over-disastrous-afghanistan-decision <p><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial;"><img width="400" style="margin-right: auto; margin-left: auto; display: block;" src="https://ibankcoin.com/zeropointnow/files/2017/08/pielays.png" height="248" />Content originally published at&nbsp;</span><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; text-decoration: underline; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; line-height: 1.2; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;" href="http://ibankcoin.com/" target="_blank">iBankCoin.com</a></span></span></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">Dr. Steve Pieczenik went on an expletive-filled&nbsp;20 minute rant today on Infowars – blasting everyone from Trump to McMaster to ‘Mad Dog’ Mattis over the decision to send more troops into Afghanistan.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">No need to flash Dr. Pie’s full list of <a href="http://stevepieczenik.com/about/" target="_blank">credentials</a> again – for the unaware, just&nbsp;know that he’s an expert in all types of warfare and counterintelligence, ran PsyOps for the CIA, and served under 5 previous administrations. Tom Clancy based the “Jack Ryan” character on Dr. Pie, and if we are to believe him - he speaks for a splinter element of 'white hat' intelligence officials who worked with Julian Assange to expose Hillary Clinton and her operation. </p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">While Alex Jones currently supports President Trump’s troop surge in Afghanistan, Dr. Pie let loose in a fire-spitting rage over what he considers a massive&nbsp;lie to the American public. </p> <blockquote style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 30px 20px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 18px; color: #555555; line-height: 28px; font-family: monospace; font-size: 16px; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: #ffffff; border: 0px 0px 0px 4px solid #777777;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">“We’re gonna have a bloodbath that we’ve never seen before.</strong>This is not about terrorism, that’s bullshit. This is not about 9/11, that’s bullshit.” –<em style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Dr. Pie</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #ff6600; box-sizing: border-box;">Highlights from the interview (video below):</span>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Lies, Cowardice and Disaster</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;">“<strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Not only has the president lied to the American public, but more importantly the generals Mattis, McMaster, the people we helped to put in have lied to themselves and to the American public.</strong><span>&nbsp;</span>These are generals who know better…”</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Trump again repeats that we were attacked on 9/11. This is always about 9/11.</strong>I told you from day one, when I came on this show it was about guys like me and others who said;<span>&nbsp;</span><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">these generals are cowards</strong>. They’re moral intellectual cowards. I’ve known that about McMaster because we paid him. I knew that about Mattis.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">This is a disaster. There is no strategy. McMaster is an idiot.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">It’s bullshit. The real ISIS was created by the CIA. The real Al Qaeda was created by the CIA</strong>.<span>&nbsp;</span><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">We don’t have a war on terror</strong>. This is 16 years of insurgency in a place that’s not even a country/ McMaster knows that, Mattis knows that, I’ve been in Afghanistan.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Trump is now on notice that we will work against him.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Daddy issues?</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Alex Jones:&nbsp;</strong>How did they get [Trump] to do this when he’s very pig headed and always does what he thinks is best?</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Dr. Pie:&nbsp;</strong>Because you gotta remember, when his father wanted to get rid of him and put him into disciplinary action, he was sent to a military academy. He then refused to fight in Vietnam. So<span>&nbsp;</span><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">he basically looks to generals as if they’re mentors and fathers</strong>. These generals are what I call idiot savants. They know what they read but they don’t know how to create a war and win a war.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Does Trump deserve&nbsp;ANY credit?</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Alex Jones:&nbsp;</strong>Does Trump not get any credit though that he controlled them so far, and didn’t let them expand the war in Syria?</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Dr. Pie:&nbsp;</strong>No,<span>&nbsp;</span><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">he gets no credit whatsoever</strong>. This is not a question of a grade. This is a question of what we call the ‘existential moment.’ You want to go to war, it takes 6 seconds to go to war. You want to get out of war, it’s taken us 17 years to find out what the hell we’re doing there. We don’t belong there. Men are dying there every day –<span>&nbsp;</span><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">we have no strategy, and putting more men into this place is not principaled rationality</strong>.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Follow the money…&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Alex Jones:&nbsp;</strong>Why are they doing it?</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Dr. Pie:&nbsp;</strong>There’s six trillion dollars in that war, and whose going to make money:<span>&nbsp;</span><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">KBR</strong>. Who makes money in Africa, KBR. What are we doing in Djibouti, the same thing. I’ve got soldiers who come back and say what the hell was I doing in Africa? Why was I in Djibouti, Sudan, Somalia? The soldiers have no idea what they’re doing.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Trump has no understanding what war is about. He has no understanding what it is to begin a war, and to complete a war. Neither do these generals.<span>&nbsp;</span></strong>None of these generals were involved in finishing a war. They’re not like Eisenhower.</p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px 0px 0px 30px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">‘I guarantee you we will have another bloodbath.’&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="list-style: none; margin: 0px 0px 20px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #333333; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal;"><strong style="list-style: none; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; box-sizing: border-box;">Watch below:&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><iframe width="560" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/q2FqncBRZkE" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; text-transform: none; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;">Follow on Twitter&nbsp;</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;"><a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #1e439a; line-height: 1.2; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;" href="https://twitter.com/ZeroPointNow" target="_blank"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #0066cc; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">@ZeroPointNow</span></span></span></a></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;">&nbsp;</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #ff6600; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;">§&nbsp;</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #000000; text-transform: none; line-height: inherit; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-color: initial; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;">Subscribe to our&nbsp;</span><a style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-align: center; color: #1e439a; text-transform: none; line-height: 1.2; text-indent: 0px; letter-spacing: normal; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none; word-spacing: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: normal; box-sizing: border-box; orphans: 2; widows: 2; font-stretch: inherit; background-color: #ffffff; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-numeric: inherit;" href="https://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=ibankcoin" target="_blank"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit; text-decoration-line: underline;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; color: #0066cc; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;"><span style="font: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">You<strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px currentColor; border-image: none; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; vertical-align: baseline; box-sizing: border-box; font-stretch: inherit;">Tube channel</strong></span></span></span></span></a><br /></span></span></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/dr-pieczenik-unloads-trump-administration-over-disastrous-afghanistan-decision#comments Afghanistan al-Qaeda American people of German descent American Presbyterians Bullshit Business Central Intelligence Agency Climate change skepticism and denial Donald Trump Economy of the United States flash None Politics of the United States Somalia The Apprentice Twitter Twitter War WWE Hall of Fame Wed, 23 Aug 2017 01:11:05 +0000 ZeroPointNow 602154 at http://www.zerohedge.com Kamala Harris Calls For Congressional Investigation Of "White Supremacist Terrorism" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/kamala-harris-calls-congressional-investigation-white-supremacist-terrorism <p>Kamala Harris, the California senator and rumored 2020 candidate for the White House, is now apparently working with the Senate Homeland Security Committee to demand an immediate investigation on the "root causes" of "<strong>violent white supremacy" in the United States following the recent tragedy in Charlottesville.&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">The Senate Homeland Security Committee Democrats &amp; I are calling for a hearing on violent white supremacy to examine root causes.</p> <p>— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) <a href="https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/900019994309914624">August 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Meanwhile, she also started an <a href="http://go.kamalaharris.org/page/s/em_petition_170822_hearings?source=tw170822">online petition</a> to collect signatures for hearings on what she dubs "<strong>white supremacist terrorism."</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"Demand Senate hearings on white supremacist terrorism"</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>"The federal government has a responsibility to address the rise of white supremacist violence and ensure that all our citizens are safe from domestic terrorism.</strong>"</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"Add your name to demand Republicans schedule hearings on violent white supremacy and other forms of hateful domestic extremism"</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/08/22/2017.08.22%20-%20Kamala.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/08/22/2017.08.22%20-%20Kamala_0.JPG" alt="KH" width="600" height="311" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, this is all part of the Left's new propaganda initiative designed specifically to convince you that <strong>the "extreme right"</strong> (which we assume is now synonymous with 'white supremacist') is <strong>"the number one domestic terror threat in the U.S."&nbsp; </strong>In fact, here is nearly identical language from CNN's <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-17/cnns-chris-cuomo-extreme-right-number-one-domestic-terror-threat-us">Chris Cuomo used just last week (</a>it's almost as if the media coordinates with Democrats on the language and branding efforts):<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-17/cnns-chris-cuomo-extreme-right-number-one-domestic-terror-threat-us"></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“If you take anarchists at their worst, do you have malefactor? Do you have criminals in their ranks? Do you have people who do violent things? Yes, yes, yes, yes. That is not a moral equivalency to the KKK,” Cuomo said. “It’s certainly not an equivalent to what we see on the right. <strong>Just look at the stats. The number one domestic terror threat in the U.S. is the extreme right. </strong>There is not even a close second.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“That’s all they’re about is hate. Two out of three people on this panel they don’t want to exist!”</p> </blockquote> <p>All of which we guess is <strong>completely accurate if you simply ignore the 2,996 people killed in the 9/11 attacks, 49 people killed in the Orlando night club shooting, 14 people killed in San Bernadino, etc.</strong></p> <p>Meanwhile, we can only assume that violent antifa protests, like the ones conducted during Trump's inauguration that included a bunch of folks running around with baseball bats and hammers, attacking cops and destroying private property, don't fit Harris' definition of "domestic terrorism."</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qm1NI9Ifb7g" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Perhaps Harris' time, and taxpayers' dollars, may be better used trying to figure out why Chicago residents are committing 800 murders every single year than why 1 psychopath committed 1 truly awful murder last week...just a thought.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="669" height="391" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/Kamala%20Harris.JPG?1503440910" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/kamala-harris-calls-congressional-investigation-white-supremacist-terrorism#comments Antifa BATS ETC Fear Ku Klux Klan Ku Klux Klan Organized crime Politics Terrorism in the United States War on Terror White House White supremacy in the United States Wed, 23 Aug 2017 01:00:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 602149 at http://www.zerohedge.com Jackson Hole Preview: Market Reactions, And Why UBS Says "Don't Skip Lunch" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/jackson-hole-preview-market-reactions-and-why-ubs-says-its-nothing-skip-lunch-over <p>Historically the annual Jackson Hole symposium has been a major market-moving event as it has traditionally been the venue where central banks make critical announcements such as Bernanke's preview and hints of QE2 and QE3 in 2012, as well as Draghi's suggestion of the ECB's QE in 2014. As shown in the chart below, market reactions following these events have been material.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/market%20reactions.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/market%20reactions_0.jpg" width="500" height="303" /></a></p> <p>This year, however, while there was a sharp build-up in expectations after several media trial balloons suggested that Draghi would unveil the ECB's taper, the fact that the market sent the EUR just shy of 1.20 in frontrunning of this announcement, prompted the ECB head to abort the entire affair, "leaking" that no material announcement would be made this week in Wyoming after all. Which is why, in previewing potential market moves, Barclays says that "the risk for the EUR around the event is biased to the downside, and that EUR bulls might be disappointed by a lack of meaningful hints on ECB monetary policy normalisation."</p> <p>ING is quick to take the fun out of this week's annual meeting: "this year's major speakers, Fed Chair Janet Yellen and the ECB President Mario Draghi, are likely to keep their cards close to their chest. <strong>Both speeches are likely to be fairly "high level" and lack any major hints about future policy.</strong>"</p> <p>As Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid echoes, "there might be a few less nerves about the next few days in markets than many felt a few weeks ago. Back then, Thursday's commencement of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium seemed to be a natural place for Mr Draghi to signal that exit from QE was soon to be accelerated. However a combination of still soft global inflation data and the Euro's recent ascent has made it unlikely that the event will be a watershed moment. Expect him to be upbeat on the economy but the hawkish/dovishness indicator might be swayed one way or the other on how much attention the Euro gets in his remarks." </p> <p>What about the Fed side of things? Here, according to UBS there will be nothing of market-moving either, and as the bank's economist Seth Carpenter writes "<strong>Don't expect news at Jackson Hole. Chair Yellen has told us what she wants to about normalization, for now. Financial stability matters, but it isn't new</strong>" and as such it will be "<strong>nothing to skip lunch over.</strong>"&nbsp; Carpenter elaborates that "the annual Jackson Hole Symposium features Chair Yellen on Friday speaking on "Financial Stability." The conference has in recent years been a venue for big news in monetary policy, but this time around it is likely to be undramatic. We expect the Chair's speech to keep to well-trod financial stability topics—some excesses may exist, but the system is safe—and eschew discussion of potential near-term policy actions."</p> <p>Deutsche Bank is a little less sanguine: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Our Fixed Income Strategists now actually think that the Fed could be more important at Jackson Hole. <strong>The running theme of this year’s symposium is “Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy” and the full line up of speakers and presentations will be released at 4PM EST on Thursday. </strong>Mrs Yellen will be speaking Friday morning at 10AM EST on financial stability. Our strategists noted that in the US there is a tension between softer inflation and easy financial conditions and given the topic of Yellen's speech is 'financial stability' she may lean towards prioritising one side or the other. Overall the market will probably be most sensitive as to whether a December hike is more or less likely after her comments. The imminent halting of reinvestment seems to be considered a fine deal."</p> </blockquote> <p>But why is UBS convinced that Friday's events (a full logisitcal breakdown is below) will be a snooze fest? Here is the explanation"</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>The FOMC has told us what they want us to know on monetary policy </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The FOMC has increased its communication and transparency about the normalization of its balance sheet. The big news is out. The outlook for rate hikes, Chair Yellen and the FOMC have told us, depends on the realized and expected path of inflation. Some technical details about implementation remain to be disclosed, but Jackson Hole would not be the venue. The FOMC has also been clear that they will put off decisions on the terminal size of the balance sheet until after implementation has begun. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>"Financial stability" matters, but isn't new</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As we noted, the Minutes of the June and the July meetings both discussed financial stability issues. In July, "a number" of participants noted that very low long-term yields could snap back abruptly or induce excessive risk taking. Moreover, the FOMC discussed equity valuation as a possible source of financial instability along with commercial real estate. On net, however, the FOMC seems comfortable with current financial stability risks, even though they will continue to monitor developments.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>So what will she say about financial stability?</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>We suspect that Chair Yellen will take this opportunity to discuss the distinction between financial stability considerations and financial conditions more broadly. She will take stock of the signal from historically low interest rates and the forces that determine those rates. These factors include slower potential GDP growth than historically was the case, global savings demand for very safe assets, and the Fed's balance sheet that continues to put some downward pressure on rates. She will note that equity valuations are high by some metrics, but by others may be justified. She will spend time on tight credit spreads, especially in the context of the Fed's monetary policy, the ongoing expansion, and generalized risk taking. Finally, she will acknowledge that parts of the Committee see commercial real estate as potentially pointing to excessive risk taking.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Well, what about financial conditions?</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Chair will take some time to differentiate financial conditions from financial stability concerns. The high level of equity prices, tight credit spreads, and low longer-term Treasury yields are much in discussion. She will note that the easy financial conditions are not, in and of themselves, a problem for monetary policy. Rather, they are one factor among many that inform her outlook for the economy. Easier financial conditions should, all else equal, support aggregate demand. In fact, as noted in Fedspeak, the Committee's outlook for ongoing gains and higher inflation over time is supported by these conditions, not hampered by them.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>What should we take away?</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Very little. Overall, Chair Yellen's speech will articulate more clearly how the FOMC thinks about financial stability issues, there should be very little that informs us on the near-term outlook for monetary policy. She will likely reiterate that the post-Crisis regulation has made the system safer. She will embrace the idea that there is room for some adjustment to the existing regulation, but she will push back against the idea of wholesale financial deregulation.</p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, if UBS is right, any hopes of a spike in cross-asset volatility at the end of the week can be postponed yet again. Market outcomes aside, what is the agenda and logistics? Here, courtesy of Goldman, is a full breakdown:</p> <p>Starting with the basics, the conference runs from the night of Thursday, August 24 through Saturday afternoon. Each year, the conference centers around one broad theme (this year it is “<strong>Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy</strong>”) and all of the presentations should be a mix of current policy discussions and the conference theme.</p> <p>The full program will be <a href="https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp">released here </a>on Thursday night at 8pm NY time. In addition to timing, this schedule will include speaker names and the title of papers they will be discussing (if applicable). It is probably worth mentioning that because the conference is in Wyoming, all times are listed in Mountain Time. That is two hours behind the US East Coast and seven hours behind London.</p> <p>None of the conference is broadcast. For all of the published speeches and papers, text will be released at the scheduled time for the panel or speech and there is no televised Q+A. However, there are usually a series of sideline TV interviews across major business networks. These are conducted throughout the day with a number of Federal Reserve officials (usually around five), international central bankers and academics. Because the speeches often have more of an academic slant, these interviews can&nbsp; often be the most relevant short-term news events of the day. The last couple years, Vice Chair Fischer has done an interview on CNBC during the first coffee break around 11:30 NY time.</p> <p>The main events start Friday morning at 10am with the keynote speech, which we now know will be delivered by Fed Chair Yellen. So far, the Fed has only said that her speech will be on the subject of “Financial Stability.” It is obviously hard to forecast a freeform speech, so we will just make a few logistical points.</p> <ul> <li><strong>First, since it is the keynote speech for the conference, the content of the speech should be closely tied to the conference theme of Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy.</strong></li> <li><strong>Second, the subject of the speech alone is not a sufficient indicator for whether or not she will comment on current policy. </strong>Last year, the subject of Yellen’s speech was listed as “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit” but she decided to include an opening section on the “Current Economic Situation and Outlook” that could just as well have been omitted.</li> <li><strong>Third, keep in mind that this is an academic setting above all else. </strong>Although Yellen certainly knows the weight that her words carry, the Jackson Hole keynote tends to be 10-15 pages long and can include multiple pages of academic references and footnotes; this is not the kind of thing that is easily distilled into a few news headlines. Last year’s speech, with its explicit section on current policy, was probably an exception to that rule.</li> </ul> <p>The keynote speech is just one aspect – albeit an important one – of a busy conference.</p> <p>So far, <strong>we also know that ECB President Draghi will deliver the luncheon address on Friday at 3pm NY time. </strong>The text of his speech should be released at that time. While this could certainly change, the rest of the speaking slots on Friday are usually reserved for academics. In past years, there has also been a closing panel on Saturday around 12:25 NY time that features speeches from two or three G10 central bankers and&nbsp; one from EM.</p> <p>On the other end of the spectrum, the academic papers (and the topic of the conference itself) could potentially have the longest-lasting impact on the policy discussion. However, these will also be the hardest to immediately interpret. As with the speeches, the text of the academic papers will not be released until the time of the relevant panel. The title and author names will be on the program released on Thursday night.</p> <p>As Goldman further adds, given the number of Federal Reserve comments likely to come out of Jackson Hole on Friday, the bank is providing its usual table of recent Fed comments with a bit of a longer history as a quick reference point. For example, Dallas Fed President Kaplan’s comment last week that he is going to be “patient” on future rate hikes was a repeat of comments he made in July.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/fed%20comments.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/fed%20comments_0.jpg" width="500" height="757" /></a></p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Finally, for those who are not convinced that Draghi, <strong>who is scheduled to speak on Friday just before the market close, </strong>won't steal the spotlight after all, Deutsche Bank reminds us that the ECB head is warming up for the trip by speaking at the Lindau economics symposium in Germany tomorrow, August 23 "<em>and as such he could front run himself." </em>In other words, tomorrow's conference could be more market-moving than what happens on Friday. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="530" height="298" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/jackson%20hole%20yellen_1.jpg?1503448987" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/jackson-hole-preview-market-reactions-and-why-ubs-says-its-nothing-skip-lunch-over#comments Barclays Business Central bank Central Banks Commercial Real Estate Committees Dallas Fed Dallas Fed Deutsche Bank Economy European Central Bank fed Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve Federal Reserve System Finance Financial services fixed Germany Global Economy headlines Inflation targeting Janet Yellen Janet Yellen Jim Reid Mario Draghi Monetary Policy Monetary policy Money None Quantitative easing Real estate Transparency US East Coast US Federal Reserve Volatility Wed, 23 Aug 2017 00:44:51 +0000 Tyler Durden 602153 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Chinese Economy's Fatal Flaws http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/chinese-economys-fatal-flaws <p><a href="https://mises.org/blog/chinese-economys-fatal-flaws"><em>Authored by William Hongsong Wang via The Mises Institute,</em></a></p> <div class="body-content clearfix"> <p>Dr. Per Bylund&rsquo;s recently published <a href="https://mises.org/blog/china-keynesian-monster">article</a>&nbsp;poignantly&nbsp;states one of the core problems in the Chinese economy and its&nbsp;the<strong> state-manipulated Keynesian foundation.</strong> I do agree with his opinion. <strong>And if we dig deeper into the exact situation of Chinese economy, we will find that it&rsquo;s a typical failing of the Keynesian, cronyist system.</strong></p> <p>By<strong> using the perspective of Austrian business cycle theory, lets take a look at China&rsquo;s <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=http://www.procesosdemercado.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/121-172-170705-Visual-Procesos-de-Mercado-COMPLETO-n%C3%BAmero-27-Vol.-XIV-n.-1-4.pdf&amp;hl=es" target="_blank">real estate industry</a>, which is suffering more and more painfully from artificial credit issued by China&rsquo;s central bank,</strong> the People&rsquo;s Bank of China (PBC).</p> <p>During the 2008 global economic crisis, China&rsquo;s central government issued <a href="http://www.economist.com/node/12585407" target="_blank">the famous RMB 4 Trillion Stimulus Package Plan</a> (equaling to $586 billion).</p> <p>Since 2009, the Chinese real estate economy has already suffered from three small economic cycles. As it is becoming more difficult for real estate companies to live on artificial prosperity, the duration of every business cycle has become shorter than the previous one. <strong>We also see more and more ghost cities because of the economic boom in every sub-economic cycle<a href="http://www.news.com.au/finance/china-building-mega-cities-but-they-remain-empty-sparking-fears-of-housing-bubble-burst/news-story/c76fa7a3dcbcf38ca1fab4bac4e7bf21" target="_blank">. There were at least 12 ghost cities founded in 2013</a>, and the number of them jumped to <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-ghost-cities-satellite-images-2017-3" target="_blank">at least 50 in 2017</a>! </strong>Bankruptcy is happening more frequently among Chinese real estate enterprises. Since 2016, at least three real estate companies &mdash; with a combined debt of at least RMB 763 million&nbsp;&mdash; have gone&nbsp;bankrupt. The story of bankruptcy is continuing, with one of the biggest real-estate-driven enterprises, <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/0f240e2e-6abf-11e7-bfeb-33fe0c5b7eaa" target="_blank">Wanda Group, facing</a> financing problems. <strong>If Wanda no longer has access to cheap debt, it might not be able to refinance or roll over all its debt again. If Wanda has to face bankruptcy, it could possibly accelerate an end of the the current Chinese boom.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p><strong>The data from the Chinese local governments is also not optimistic; </strong>their debt levels have reached almost RMB 25 trillion (US$ 4 trillion) at the end of 2014. In 2015, even the PBC admitted in <a href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130736/2946072/2015090616281480816.pdf" target="_blank">one of its annual report</a>s saying that China&rsquo;s financial system is facing higher instability and uncertainty.</p> <p><u><strong>The above evidence is not a surprise.</strong></u> All these are the<strong> consequence of artificial bank credit created by central banking and central planning</strong>.</p> <p>In China, <a href="https://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/09/06/cant-get-a-bank-loan-chinese-state-owned-companies-happy-to-help-out/" target="_blank">the loans are easy to get from the State Owned Enterprises</a> (SOEs) or the businessmen who are the friends of the politicians in the Communist Party. China&rsquo;s real estate industry is also the ally of the state and only the people who are friends of those in authority can participate in housing programs.&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Besides the SOE&nbsp;economic system, what we should worry more about is how the Keynesian and crony system hurts small and private businesses in China, <a href="http://www.aei.org/publication/chinas-soe-sector-is-bigger-than-some-would-have-us-think/" target="_blank">who are driving the economy of this country</a>. </strong>Compared with the SOEs, and the businessmen who are the close allies of some influential politicians, it is harder for ordinary entrepreneurs who are running small businesses to get loans. Moreover, <a href="http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/06/07/china-market-squeeze-starts-to-strangle-small-businesses.html" target="_blank">the recent market squeeze makes it harder for Chinese small business to survive</a>. These entrepreneurs are not only facing an unfriendly bank credit situation, but also the threat of having to bribe the&nbsp;government to circumvent <a href="https://www.b2binternational.com/publications/china-market-entry/" target="_blank">the massive scale of governmental economic regulations</a>.</p> <p>Consider&nbsp;<a href="https://www.nhk.or.jp/docudocu/program/2443/2409226/index.html" target="_blank">the story</a> of a small business boss Li Lang, who is a typical Kirznerian alert businessman in China. Several years ago, he observed a shortage of moving companies in the Southwest Chinese town of Chengdu. He started his business to serve the local people. The business is not easy, not only because it requires hard work, but Li also must bribe and maintain good relations with the local politicians to let them &ldquo;protect&rdquo; his business and help him introduce some business opportunities. According to Li, if the local bigwigs in the crony system had already discovered the opportunity of earning a fortune by managing a moving company, it wouldn&rsquo;t have been possible for him to enter the business. Though now that he has earned a lot of money, he still has to carefully maintain the relationship with the politicians to &quot;protect&quot; his business. His is not an isolated case. In China, the less connections you have with the cronyist system, the less business opportunity you have. And even if you become successful in your business, be careful, the state has eyes on your wealth.</p> <p><em><strong>Though we know that the private sector is driving the Chinese economy and has improved the living standard of many Chinese individuals despite state economic manipulation, <u>we still have to emphasize that the nature of the Chinese economic model is dominated by Keynesianism and cronyism. </u></strong></em></p> <p>Otherwise, the false prosperity would make us misread what is happening in China.</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>In other words - don&#39;t start believing.</p> </div> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_comms2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_comms2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 328px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="236" height="155" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170822_china.png?1503436866" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/chinese-economys-fatal-flaws#comments 2008–09 Keynesian resurgence Asia Business Business cycle Chengdu China China Chinese financial system Communist Party Cronyism Economy Economy of China Keynesian economics keynesianism Mises Institute Mises Institute People's Bank of China Real estate Renminbi Wanda Group Wed, 23 Aug 2017 00:10:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 602141 at http://www.zerohedge.com Neocons Love Trump's New Afghanistan Plan, Blackwater Calls It "Obama-Lite" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/neocons-love-trumps-new-afghanistan-plan-blackwater-calls-it-obama-lite <p>In an extended tweetstorm conccurrent with Trump's Monday night Afghanistan address, Ron Paul lashed out at the president, saying that at long last, Trump's neo-con nature had emerged. "Steve Bannon brakes removed. Neocons feeling their oats" and urging the public to "Beware! @LindseyGrahamSC loves Trump's speech! Why are arch-neocons celebrating so much? Very telling!." It appears that Paul's assessment of Trump's new strategy was not far off, because as the Hill reports today, the neoconservative wing of the Republican Party applauded President Trump’s troop surge in Afghanistan, even as members of the president’s base accused him of capitulating to the national security establishment. </p> <p>Some of the loudest accolades came from foreign policy hawks in the Senate, including two of Trump’s fiercest GOP critics, Lindsey Graham and John McCain, who praised Trump for going against his “instinct” and delegating the decision to his generals, who convinced him that victory could be had in the 16-year war that has spanned three administrations.</p> <p><strong>“I’m proud. I’m relieved,” </strong>Graham said on Fox News after Trump’s Monday night address. <strong>“I’m proud of the fact that President Trump made a national security decision, not a political decision. I’m proud of the fact that he listened to the generals, and I’m most proud of the fact that he showed the will to stand up to radical Islam. </strong>I’m relieved he did not take the advice to withdraw, which would have been disastrous, or create a mercenary army, so I’m very pleased. Very thoughtful, very inspiring speech, and I can assure you a lot of people in Congress will be behind the president.”</p> <p>McCain echoed Graham, saying Trump was moving beyond former President Obama’s “failed strategy of merely postponing defeat,” although it was not exactly clear how since Trump was doing precisely what Obama (and Hillary Clinton did and would have one), adding that it was “especially important” that Trump did not commit to a timeline for withdrawal. </p> <p>Marco Rubio, another proponent of foreign US intervention and a "muscular" foreign policy, called Trump’s strategy “the right approach.”</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">New <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AfghanStrategy?src=hash">#AfghanStrategy</a> based on the conditions on ground not on arbitrary numbers and timelines is the right approach</p> <p>— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) <a href="https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/899802815060508672">August 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Support also came from prominent neoconservative writers and thinkers who had long been worried that Trump, who ran on an “America First” platform, would take a more isolationist approach to foreign policy. John Podhoretz, a former speechwriter for President George W. Bush and the editor of the conservative magazine Commentary, reacted to the speech by saying it’s almost as if Bush’s former deputy secretary of Defense, Paul Wolfowitz, has been put in charge. </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">In the end we are all neocons <a href="https://t.co/gJBqc7TJVE">pic.twitter.com/gJBqc7TJVE</a></p> <p>— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) <a href="https://twitter.com/jpodhoretz/status/899836397498093568">August 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>"President Trump’s decision to recommit to Afghanistan was right and important,” wrote American Enterprise Institute scholar Fred Kagan, another proponent of neoconservatism.</p> <p>The Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol, a key voice behind every single recent US war and intervention, a “Never Trump” Republican and another "uber" neocon, reveled in the fact that Trump’s generals appeared to have won the power struggle over his nationalist advisers, like former chief strategist Stephen Bannon.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Out: Flynn, Priebus, Bannon.<br />In: McMaster and Kelly.<br />There are limits to the difference advisors can make, but that is a massive upgrade.</p> <p>— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) <a href="https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/899974235011076096">August 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Meanwhile Breitbart, where former Trump advisor Steve Bannon return to after last week's latest White House staff fireworks, ran a story on Tuesday saying that “Trump’s 'America First' base” is unhappy with the president’s “flip-flop Afghanistan speech,” along with a host of stories highlighting GOP establishment support for Trump’s new strategy.</p> <p><strong>“President Trump’s ‘America First’ base was the biggest loser of Trump’s speech on Afghanistan Monday night, and many quickly expressed their disappointment at the business-as-usual address from the president who had once promised to limit American intervention abroad and focus on nation-building at home,</strong>” Breitbart reporter Adam Shaw wrote. </p> <p>Predictably Ron Paul's son, senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.), a prominent non-interventionist whose views on foreign policy are derided by the conservative foreign policy establishment, bemoaned the costs to the military and taxpayers for the continuing war: “I strongly disagree with the president’s actions here. If the president and my colleagues want to continue the war in Afghanistan, then at the very least Congress should vote on it. I’ll insist they do it this fall, and I’ll be leading the charge for 'no.' "</p> <p>Finally, Laura Ingraham, a pro-Trump, anti-establishment conservative radio personality, tweeted:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">I thought we were going to drain the swamp in Washington, not clear the desert in Afghanistan. <a href="https://t.co/gQFnQjoj0n">https://t.co/gQFnQjoj0n</a></p> <p>— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) <a href="https://twitter.com/IngrahamAngle/status/899940983319789568">August 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Not surprisingly, the harshest criticism for Trump's new foreign policy came from the founder of private military company Blackwater, who ripped Trump’s new Afghanistan war plan as an <strong>“Obama-lite policy.”</strong></p> <p>Erik Prince who for obvious reason has encouraged administration officials to use contractors instead of U.S. military forces in Afghanistan, called Trump’s plan “a<strong> continuation of the same limited or failed strategy of the last 16 years</strong>.... This is a kind of Obama-lite policy,” <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/347558-blackwater-founder-calls-trumps-afghanistan-plan-obama-lite-policy">Prince told The Hill</a>, referring to President Obama’s 30,000 troop surge in 2009 in Afghanistan. The increase brought the total number of troops in the country to more than 100,000 in 2011 before a rapid drawdown.</p> <p>“This is a lighter but almost as expensive version. Remember, the Pentagon now is spending as much as when they had five times as many troops in the country. It’s horrendous how they’ve lost control of the spending. That’s what makes this so unsustainable,” Prince added.</p> <p>“He said it’s not a blank check, but the Pentagon continues to stand and plan and operationalize as if it is a blank check,” Prince said. “<strong>That’s the fundamental problem the plan now doesn’t address: How does this end. The Pentagon wants to position this like a forever occupation like South Korea. And I think that’s a horrendous and untenable position.</strong>” </p> <p>Surprisingly, Prince was doubtful that the president and Defense Secretary James Mattis are fully behind the strategy: <strong>“I don’t think the president loves this plan, I don’t think Secretary Mattis does either. He’s not even on the same continent,” </strong>Prince said, referring to Mattis’s current trip to the Middle East and Europe.</p> <p>So if neither Trump, nor his chief military advisor "loved" the plan - and yet every prominent neo-con did - one wonders, just where did this plan come from?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="274" height="184" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/graham%20teaser.jpg?1503441273" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/neocons-love-trumps-new-afghanistan-plan-blackwater-calls-it-obama-lite#comments Afghanistan Alt-right American people of German descent American studies Climate change skepticism and denial Congress Conservatism in the United States Donald Trump Donald Trump presidential campaign Fox News John McCain Middle East Middle East national security Neocons Neoconservatism Pentagon Politics Politics of the United States Republican Party Ron Paul Senate Twitter Twitter United States White House White House Tue, 22 Aug 2017 23:43:54 +0000 Tyler Durden 602147 at http://www.zerohedge.com Scott Cahill: Collapse Risk At The Oroville Dam Is Still Unacceptably High http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/scott-cahill-collapse-risk-oroville-dam-still-unacceptably-high <p><a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/110349/scott-cahill-collapse-risk-oroville-dam-still-unacceptably-high"><em>Authored by Adam Taggart via PeakProsperity.com,</em></a></p> <div class="content clearfix"> <p><em><strong>Remember the crisis earlier this year at the Oroville Dam?</strong></em></p> <p>The overflow from California&#39;s winter of <strong>heavy rain threatened to overpower our country&#39;s tallest dam.</strong> A cascading failure of the dam&#39;s main gates, its primarily spillway AND its emergency spillway had the world watching hour by hour to see if a catastrophic breach was going to occur.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170822_dam.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170822_dam.jpg" style="width: 606px; height: 366px;" /></a></p> <p>Fortunately, the rains stopped long enough for the situation to be brought under control. <strong>The dam remains in place and repair crews have been working all spring and summer.</strong></p> <p><strong>But should we breathe easy at this point? Not at all, </strong>says dam safety expert Scott Cahill. Our readers will remember Scott from the excellent technical assessment he provided in the thick of the crisis earlier this year. <a href="https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/107126/expert-what-need-know-about-oroville-dam-crisis" target="_blank">In our earlier&nbsp;podcast </a>with him, he explained&nbsp;how the real tragedy at Oroville&nbsp;was that for many years, small and affordable maintenance projects that easily could have prevented the crisis were diverted (in his estimation, the cost of making the needed repairs was quite small -- around $6 million. But for short-sighted reasons, the repairs were not funded; and now the bill to fix the resultant damage will likely be on the order of magnitude of over $200 million. Which does not factor in the environmental carnage caused by&nbsp;<a href="http://www.abc10.com/news/local/the-rush-to-save-baby-salmon-in-oroville/406942505" target="_blank">flooding downstream ecosystems with high-sediment water</a>&nbsp;or the costs involved with&nbsp;<a href="http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article132527384.html" target="_blank">evacuating the 200,000 residents</a>&nbsp;living nearby the dam).</p> <p>And the pattern appears to be continuing. In this week&#39;s podcast, Scott details a number of concerning structural risks visible at Oroville that are again being de-prioritized, or ignored all-together. And as before, straightforward and inexpensive projects that have high potential to prevent a catastrophic failure of the dam are not being pursued:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>They&#39;ve begun the repairs on the bottom half of the spillway, but the tragedy and loss from the bottom half of the spillway failing has already been realized.</strong> No one is worried about the bottom half of the spillway. On the other hand, they&#39;ve done nothing yet with the upper half of the spillway -- which is what would cause a catastrophic failure of the dam. It&#39;s amazing how much money they&#39;ve already spent, and yet their priorities are such that they haven&#39;t abated the liability at all.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So yes, we&#39;ve made the bottom of the principal spillway, the concrete slues, more sound. <strong>But it&#39;s not the bottom of the dam that will fail, of course, it&#39;s the crest -- the top of it -- where the gates are. That&#39;s still highly suspect.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>There are additional issues involving the unwanted moving of water through the dam -- the so-called &quot;green spots&quot;. <strong>These are areas where water is migrating through the dam, probably through the indigenous soils adjacent to it.</strong> I&#39;ve walked on these [at Oroville] and you can stick your foot down, and like your backyard after a torrential rain, water actually comes up into the footprint after you remove your foot. This is not a good situation. I believe there is a lot of movement of water through that dam, including at the structure itself that houses the gates that control the flow down the principal spillway.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>There&#39;s nothing wrong with embankment dams in general, they&#39;re wonderful dams. But they rely on the mass of the earthen embankment itself to offset the forces that try to slide or rotate it into failure. <strong>When we see water migrating through a dam, it can potentially cause failure of the dam because it offsets the mass all that earth.</strong> Plus, there&#39;s a lot of river rock and sand in this embankment. River rock, as we all know, is round. Anyone can understand how a pile of round rocks, if the fines have been washed out from between them by water and the rocks then vibrated, for instance, by seismic activity, weakens the system. <strong>These concerns are very, very serious. I believe that this situation is occurring in multiple places across the Oroville dam -- and yet this is simply not being discussed.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Click the play button below to listen to Chris&#39; interview with Scott Cahill (41m:06s).</p> </div> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/GHI_CcHXr6E" width="560"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="606" height="366" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170822_dam.jpg?1503402510" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/scott-cahill-collapse-risk-oroville-dam-still-unacceptably-high#comments California California State Water Project Dam Disaster Environment Fail Feather River Geography of California Hydraulic structures Oroville Dam Oroville Dam crisis Oroville, California Sayano–Shushenskaya Dam Spillway Water in California Tue, 22 Aug 2017 23:20:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 602081 at http://www.zerohedge.com Al Sharpton Is Shocked At The "Poisonous Atmosphere" In America "Being Stoked By The President" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/al-sharpton-shocked-poisonous-atmosphere-america-being-stoked-president <p>Al Sharpton, who&rsquo;s built his career on stoking racial tensions for personal and financial gain, accused President Donald Trump of inciting a &ldquo;poisonous atmosphere&rdquo; in the US.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;We&rsquo;re in a poisonous atmosphere that is being increased by the president of the United States. It&rsquo;s like turning on the gas in a room.&rdquo;&nbsp; &nbsp;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Any match could lead to an explosion, and we&rsquo;re getting that kind of atmosphere from this president.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>As anyone familiar with Sharpton&rsquo;s history is probably aware, the hypocrisy inherent in his statement is staggering. Even within the black community,<strong> Sharpton has become associated with transforming tragedies into media circuses for personal and financial gain.</strong> In 1987, the Reverend famously accused a prosecutor in upstate New York of taking part in the rape of a black teenager. Her story was soon found to be fabricated. <strong>One family member of Akai Gurley, a young black man who was shot and killed by police in Brooklyn in 2014, complained that Sharpton swooped in and &ldquo;put his name on&rdquo; the situation before discussing it with the family. </strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.08.22sharpton.JPG"><strong><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/08/19/2017.08.22sharpton_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 306px;" /></strong></a></p> <p>Sharpton, who made the remarks during an appearance on Politico&rsquo;s <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/22/sharpton-any-match-could-lead-to-an-explosion-215517">&ldquo;Off the Record&rdquo; podcast,</a> used the opportunity to raise awareness for his annual march from the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial on Aug. 28. Sharpton and Trump have a history of feuding dating back to 1989, when Trump published advertisements in local newspapers demanding the death penalty for the Central Park Five, who were later exonerated.</p> <p>Their most recent dustup occurred in 2012, when Trump was embroiled in the &ldquo;birther&rdquo; controversy, <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/22/sharpton-any-match-could-lead-to-an-explosion-215517">Politico</a> reported.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;<strong>In 2012, Sharpton accused Trump of peddling racism throughout his birther phase. They met in Trump Tower that November&mdash;&ldquo;to apologize for calling me a racist&mdash;very nice, apology accepted!&rdquo;</strong> was the @realDonaldTrump tweet, though the reverend himself said then and says now both that he didn&rsquo;t call Trump himself a racist, and that he didn&rsquo;t apologize.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Sharpton clarified that he isn&rsquo;t calling Trump a racist this time, either.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;Sharpton still deliberately isn&rsquo;t calling Trump a racist, or an anti-Semite. &ldquo;I don&rsquo;t want to reduce this to that. His policies are there. That speaks for itself. If we make it personal, he wins,&rdquo; Sharpton said. &ldquo;I used to call people names.</strong> Don&rsquo;t give people the easy way out.&rdquo; But, Sharpton added: &ldquo;I think he has empowered anti-Semites and racists. I think he has brought them from the shadows into the mainstream and I think he&rsquo;s emboldened them, and I think that&rsquo;s a dangerous course for the country.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Like Trump, Sharpton has also been accused of antisemitism, <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/22/sharpton-any-match-could-lead-to-an-explosion-215517">Politico </a>noted.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Sharpton has his own checkered history full of accusations of anti-Semitism.<strong> He bristles when those are brought up, saying that it&rsquo;s usually willful misinterpretation by others seeking division, though some is reflective of his own learning curve.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, Sharpton was quick to brush these allegations aside.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;To him, the imperative now is for people who are offended to stand united against Trump, but to refuse to play into the violence or debates like the one over the Confederate monuments because he says that&rsquo;s what Trump wants.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Despite their acrimonious history, Trump and Sharpton &ndash; two outsize New York City characters - have more in common than perhaps either would like to admit.</p> <p>Listen to the full podcast <a href="https://megaphone.link/PPY4363570274">here</a>:</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="238" height="147" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170822_pot.png?1503422288" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-22/al-sharpton-shocked-poisonous-atmosphere-america-being-stoked-president#comments Akai Gurley Al Sharpton Business Civil disobedience Donald Trump Donald Trump New York City Social Issues United States Tue, 22 Aug 2017 22:55:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 602122 at http://www.zerohedge.com