en $100 Increase In Monthly Mortgage Payment Would Sink 75% Of Canadian Homeowners <p>According to a new survey from Manulife Bank, nearly 75% of Canadian homeowners would have difficulty paying their mortgage every month if their payments increased by as little as 10%.&nbsp; And, given that the average house in Canada costs roughly $200,000 and carries a monthly mortgage payment of $1,000, that means that most Canadians couldn't incur and $100 hike in their monthly mortgage payments without possibly going under.&nbsp; Per <a href="">CBC</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>The bank polled 2,098 homeowners — between the ages of 20 to 69 with household incomes of $50,000 or higher</strong> — online in the first two weeks of February.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Fourteen per cent of respondents to Manulife's survey said they wouldn't be able to withstand any increase in their monthly payments, while 38 per cent of those polled said they could withstand a payment hike of between one and five per cent before having difficulty. An additional 20 per cent said they could stomach a hike of between six and 10 per cent before feeling the pinch.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Add it all up, and that means 72 per cent of homeowners polled couldn't withstand a hike of just 10 per cent from their current record lows.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><a href=" - Canada Mortgages 1.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 471px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, such a huge sensitivity to small budget fluctuations isn't a great sign when we're in the midst of record-low interest rates and about to enter a period of sustained hikes.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"What these people don't realize is that we're at record low interest rates today,"</strong> said Rick Lunny, president and CEO of Manulife Bank.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>If mortgage rates increase by as little as one percentage point, some borrowers could be facing a hike of 10 per cent on their monthly bills. </strong>A bigger mortgage rate hike would bring more pain.</p> </blockquote> <p>Meanwhile, 45% of millennials in the same survey said they had to borrow money from their parents to purchase their home and 25% admitted they have no savings.</p> <p><a href=" - Canada Mortgages 2.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 342px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Well, at least <a href="">Americans aren't the only ones</a> that have no idea how to save.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="649" height="413" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Business Economy Loans Mortgage Mortgage loan United States housing bubble Wed, 24 May 2017 23:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 596582 at "He Wanted Revenge": The Story Of The Manchester Suicide Bomber Emerges <p>As the investigation into Salman Abedi's deadly suicide bombing expands, discrete details about his motives and state of mind emerge with the most expansive analysis to date <a href="">just released by the WSJ</a>, which shows the ISIS sympathizer, terrorist and mass killer as a confused young man, the byproduct of a destroyed nation, who - when all is said and done - wanted revenge according to his sister, who is quoted as saying that “<strong>he saw children—Muslim children—dying everywhere, and wanted revenge. He saw the explosives America drops on children in Syria, and he wanted revenge</strong>."</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="281" /></a><br /><em>An undated photo of Salman Abedi made available on Wednesday: AP</em></p> <p>As the <a href="">WSJ chronicles</a>, just days before Salman Abedi blew himself up and killed 22 people outside a Manchester concert on Monday, he told his parents he was leaving their home in Libya to go on a pilgrimage to the Muslim holy city of Mecca, despite having other plans. "Abedi grew up in a world that straddled middle-class Britain and the Libya of his parents, both before and after the chaotic collapse of strongman Moammar Gadhafi’s regime" is how WSJ authors describe his troubled formative years.</p> <p>And while he may have had a troubled childhood, aside from some traumatic encounters it is difficult to see just what set him off over the edge, and what, if anything, was the moment that defined his fracture.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>In 2011, when Abedi was still a teenager, he traveled to Libya and fought alongside his father in a militia known as the Tripoli Brigade to oust Gadhafi as the revolts of the Arab Spring swept North Africa and the Middle East, a family friend said. The militia battled in Libya’s western mountains and played an important role in the fall of Tripoli to rebel forces that year. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Abedi and his mother returned to Britain in 2014, the family friend said. The young man enrolled at Manchester’s University of Salford in 2015 to study business administration. He studied for a year before effectively dropping out, according to a university spokesman.</p> </blockquote> <p>Few were as surprised by Abedi's transformation from a troubled youth to a deadly monster as Abedi’s sister, Jomana Abedi, who said her brother was kind and loving and that she was surprised by what he did this week. She said she thought he was driven by what he saw as injustices.</p> <p><strong>“I think he saw children—Muslim children—dying everywhere, and wanted revenge. He saw the explosives America drops on children in Syria, and he wanted revenge,” she said. “Whether he got that is between him and God.</strong>”</p> <p>Abedi suffered a personal tragey in May 2016 when an 18-year-old friend of Salman’s, Abdul Wahab Hafidah, also a Briton of Libyan descent, died after being run down by a car and then stabbed in Manchester. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>"Abedi viewed the attack as a hate crime, the family friend said, and grew increasingly angry about what he considered ill-treatment of Muslims in Britain."</p> </blockquote> <p>That may well have been the moment when Abedi fell into the abyss: “I remember Salman at his funeral vowing revenge,” the Abedi family friend said. After that the soon-to-be-killer became increasingly religious and interested in extremist groups. A cousin, who declined to be named, said Abedi’s parents worried he was headed toward violence.</p> <p>“We knew he was going to cause trouble,” the family friend said. “You could see that something was going to happen, sooner or later.” </p> <p>More details from the WSJ:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Born in Manchester on New Year’s Eve in 1994, Abedi grew up playing soccer with his brothers in the street and went to school at the local Burnage Academy for Boys. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In Manchester, neighbors remember a family that didn’t mix much with others. On Fridays, they could be seen walking out of their house in traditional Muslim dress to attend a mosque in a converted church nearby. People at the mosque remember Abedi’s father, Ramadan, sometimes performing the call to prayer, and his brother, Ismail, attending. They said Abedi wasn’t a regular. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>His older brother, Ismail, worked as a computer engineer at the headquarters of the Park Cake Bakery, a big British baker with around 2,000 employees. He lived with his wife in an apartment near the Abedi family home in south Manchester. The building was searched by police on Tuesday and Ismail Abedi was arrested nearby. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Akram Ramadan, 49, who lives upstairs, said Ismail Abedi “was a talkative guy who would always say hello.” He described Ismail as “a regular Joe,” adding that he was “definitely a Manc”—a local colloquialism for people from Manchester.</p> </blockquote> <p>As reported earlier, Abedi’s younger brother, Hashem, was arrested in the Libyan capital Tripoli on Wednesday, and confessed that the pair were members of Islamic State and involved in the attack. Investigators are also looking into the possibility that Abedi went to Syria before the attack, one Western security official said.</p> <p>Abedi's radicalization was a shock to those close to him: in an interview before being detained, Abedi's father, Ramadan, told the Associated Press: “We don’t believe in killing innocents. This is not us.” </p> <p>Ramadan also told the AP his son had never been to Syria. It was impossible to independently confirm the Libyan authorities’ assertion about Hashem Abedi’s confession, or to ascertain the conditions under which it was made. One thing appears certain: for whatever reason, Abedi did it. On Monday evening, Salman Abedi was captured on security cameras, carrying a bag and walking in the foyer of the Manchester Arena where American pop star Ariana Grande was wrapping up her concert.</p> <p>Which brings up the eternal question, at least among libertarians: would Abedi have engaged in Monday's tragic mass if, as the WSJ notes, he had not witnessed the sequence of events that was started with the US overthrow of the Libyan regime, and culminated with the US proxy war in Syria meant to overthrow Assad just so a Qatari gas pipeline can cross the nation, and free Europe from Gazprome's quasi-monopolistic clutches. And if so, while one can debate who is fundamentally at fault for the terrorist incident, especially if it was indeed "revenge", the bigger question is how and when does the sequence of mindless deaths ever end. The answer, not just in this case but in countless generational vendettas in both the Middle East and across the world, remains elusive.</p> <p>As for whether Abedi got his revenge by killing 22 innocent people, among them many children, his sister was laconic: "that is between him and God.”</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="700" height="394" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Middle East Politics Wed, 24 May 2017 23:05:38 +0000 Tyler Durden 596597 at "Secret" Russian Document Influenced Comey's Probe Into Hillary Clinton: Report <p>As part of Wednesday&#39;s late day bombshell dump, <a href="">the Washington Post has revealed </a>that former FBI Director James Comey&rsquo;s decision to unilaterally announce the closure of the investigation into whether Hillary Clinton intentionally mishandled classified information was inspired by a &quot;<strong>secret, dubious</strong>&quot; Russian document, that FBI officials now believe was &ldquo;bad intelligence.&rdquo;</p> <p>The secret document, which purported to be a piece of Russian intelligence, claimed that former Attorney General Loretta Lynch had privately assured someone in the Clinton campaign that the investigation into Clinton&rsquo;s handling of classified information would go nowhere, &quot;a conversation that if made public would cast doubt on the inquiry&rsquo;s integrity.&quot;</p> <p>The document in question is referenced in the following clip:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="">@zerohedge</a> Talking about this: <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; ??MsStevie ?? (@msstevie) <a href="">May 24, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p><a href="">Here&rsquo;s WaPo</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Current and former officials have said that document played a significant role in the July decision by then-FBI Director James B. Comey to announce on his own, without Justice Department involvement, that the investigation was over. That public announcement &mdash; in which he criticized Clinton and made extensive comments about the evidence &mdash; set in motion a chain of other FBI moves that Democrats now say helped Trump win the presidential election.&nbsp;</p></blockquote> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>But according to the FBI&rsquo;s own assessment, the document was bad intelligence &mdash; <strong>and according to people familiar with its contents, possibly even a fake sent to confuse the bureau. The Americans mentioned in the Russian document insist they do not know each other, do not speak to each other and never had any conversations remotely like the ones described in the document. </strong></p></blockquote> <p>Whil FBI Investigators have long doubted the document&#39;s veracity, by August the FBI had concluded it was unreliable.Comey</p> <p>The &ldquo;document&rdquo; in question is an email allegedly written by disgraced former DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz and sent to Leonard Benardo, who is an official with the George Soros organization Open Society Foundations. According to the document, Wasserman Schultz claimed Lynch had assured senior Clinton campaign staffer Amanda Renteria that the investigation would not go too far</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 500px; height: 283px;" /></a></p> <p>Supporters of Comey claim that the document gave him good reason to take the microphone in July, without consulting with Lynch, to announce the close of the Clinton probe in great detail.</p> <p>&ldquo;It was a very powerful factor in the decision to go forward in July with the statement that there shouldn&rsquo;t be a prosecution,&rdquo; a person familiar with the matter told the Post. &ldquo;The point is that the bureau picked up hacked material that hadn&rsquo;t been dumped by the bad guys involving Lynch. And that would have pulled the rug out of any authoritative announcement.&rdquo;</p> <p>As the Post explains, that decision set off a chain of events that Democrats believe contributed to Clinton&rsquo;s shocking loss in November. The White House has also cited Comey&#39;s handling of the close of the probe in its official rationale for the former director&#39;s dismissal earlier this month.</p> <p>In other words, this is reportedly <strong>yet another angle which casts the blame for Hillary&#39;s loss on Russia, even if in this case it was mediated by alleged FBI incompetence. </strong></p> <p>The report is the second within a week&rsquo;s time to raise serious doubts about the competence of U.S. intelligence agencies, <strong><a href="">the first being the NYT report about how China&rsquo;s Communist Party murdered or imprisoned nearly two dozen CIA operatives between 2010 and late 2012 while outspoken Clinton Supporter MIke Morell was in charge of the agency.</a></strong></p> <p>According to WaPo, Comey believed he had &ldquo;little choice&rdquo; but to announce the closure of the Clinton investigation and detail the nature of the evidence against her without the involvement of the AG because if the document leaked, he feared that the legitimacy of any announcement by the AG would be questioned.</p> <p>It&#39;s hard to imagine the outpouring of support and sympathy for Comey that Democrats exhibited following his firing by President Trump will continue now that WaPo has revealed that the director&#39;s strategy for publicizing information about nature of the Clinton investigation - something liberals believe cost her the election - was based on unreliable Russian intelligence.</p> <p>Comey&#39;s decision to announce the closure of the Clinton investigation back in July <strong>set off a chain of events that eventually led to him announcing, just a week before the Nov. 8 vote, that the FBI had reopened the investigation after finding some of Clinton&#39;s emails on a laptop owned by Anthony Weiner,</strong> the then-husband of top Clinton aide Huma Abedin, the paper reported. Wapo also notes that the veracity of the document was under suspicion from the moment the bureau received it in early March 2016.</p> <p>But as is typical of the leaks that have trickled out from the intelligence agencies since the election, this one too contains an important caveat. To wit:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Comeys defenders still insist that there is reason to believe the document is legitimate and that it rightly played a major role in the director&#39;s thinking.</p> </blockquote> <p>Earlier today, the Daily Caller reported that <a href="">DWS reportedly threatened the chief of the U.S. Capitol Police with &ldquo;consequences&rdquo; for holding on to a laptop she says belongs to her.</a> The police are holding the computer as evidence in a case against a Congressional staffer accused of wide-ranging data breaches. So a parallel question is: what is on that laptop that DWS doesn&#39;t want us to see?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="648" height="367" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Anthony Weiner B+ Central Intelligence Agency Central Intelligence Agency China Communist Party Department of Justice Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation Dismissal of United States Attorneys controversy Donald Trump FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Bureau of Investigation George Soros Government Hillary Clinton Huma Abedin James Comey Loretta Lynch New York Politics Russian intelligence Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections Twitter Twitter U.S. Capitol Police U.S. intelligence United States United States intelligence agencies White House White House Wed, 24 May 2017 22:41:52 +0000 Tyler Durden 596596 at Comey 'Friend' Warns Trump "If I Were You, I'd Be Scared" <p>First it was anonymous colleagues, then his dad, and now it&#39;s a &#39;friend&#39; of Jim Comey that CNN reports the fired FBI director has a story to tell, adding that he would be scared if he were President Trump.</p> <p><img height="307" src="" width="549" /></p> <p><a href=""><em>As The Hill reports,</em></a> Benjamin Wittes, who describes himself as a Comey confidant, said on CNN when asked how Comey was doing.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;He&#39;s going to be fine. <strong>He&#39;s not somebody who spends time feeling sorry for himself,&quot; </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;I thought it was interesting and very telling that he declined an opportunity to tell his story in private. He clearly wants to do it in a public setting,&quot;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&quot;I think that&#39;s a reflection of the fact that this is a guy with a story to tell. I think if I were Donald Trump that would scare me a lot.&quot;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>This comes days after a report said Comey is expected to testify that he believes Trump was deliberately trying to meddle in the FBI&#39;s investigation of Russian interference in the presidential election.</p> <p>One wonders how long until Ray Dalio, Comey&#39;s former boss, and until <a href="">recently a fan of Donald Trump</a>, is also asked to comment (off the record) on the upcoming Pay Per View show&nbsp; of the century, as Comey finally sits down to &quot;clear the air.&quot;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="549" height="307" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation Dismissal of James Comey Dismissal of United States Attorneys controversy Donald Trump Donald Trump Entertainment FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation Federal Bureau of Investigation Human Interest James Comey Ray Dalio Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections United States United States intelligence agencies Wed, 24 May 2017 22:10:30 +0000 Tyler Durden 596543 at Six Terrifying Graphs That Summarize America's Public Pension Crisis <p>A new report from the Hoover Institution written by Senior Fellow Joshua Rauh and entitled "<a href="">Hidden Debt, Hidden Deficits: How Pension Promises Are Consuming State And Local Budgets</a>," does a masterful job illustrating the true severity of America's public pension crisis, a topic to which we've dedicated a substantial amount of time over the past couple of years.&nbsp; </p> <p>As part of the study, Rauh reviewed, in detail, 649 state, county and local pension systems in the United States and ranked them based on funding status and impact on local budgets.&nbsp; What he found was a hidden taxpayer debt burden, in the form of underfunded pensions liabilities, totaling over $3.8 trillion.&nbsp; Of course, as we've pointed out multiple times as well (see "<a href="">An Unsolvable Math Problem: Public Pensions Are Underfunded By As Much As $8 Trillion</a>"), <strong>Rauh argues that that $3.8 trillion taxpayer obligation is actually much larger if you apply some "common sense" math as opposed to "pension math."</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>As of fiscal year 2015, the latest year for which complete accounts are available for all cities and states, governments reported unfunded liabilities of $1.378 trillion under recently implemented governmental accounting standards. <strong>However, we calculate using market valuation techniques that the true unfunded liability owed to workers based on their current service and salaries is $3.846 trillion.</strong> These calculations reflect the fact that accrued pension promises are a form of government debt with strong rights. These unfunded liabilities represent an increase of $434 billion over 2014, as realized asset returns fell far short of their targets. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Governmental accounting standards for pensions underwent some changes in 2014 and 2015 with the implementation of Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB) statements 67 and 68, procedures which require state and local governments to report on the assets and liabilities of their systems with a greater degree of harmonization. However, these standards still preserved the basic flaw in governmental pension accounting: the fallacy that liabilities can be measured by choosing an expected return on plan assets. This procedure uses as inputs the forecasts of investment returns on fundamentally risky assets and ignores the risk necessary to target hoped-for returns. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Specifically, <strong>the liability-weighted average expected return chosen by systems in 2015 was 7.6 percent. A 7.6 percent expected return implies that state and city governments are expecting the value of the money they invest today to double approximately every 9.5 years. That means that a typical government would view a promise to make a worker a $100,000 payment in 2026 as “fully funded” even if it had set aside less than $50,000 in assets in 2016;</strong> a similar payment in 2036 would be viewed as “fully funded” with less than $25,000 in assets in 2016.</p> </blockquote> <p>With that intro, here are the stats on the worst funded public pension plans by state, county and city.</p> <p>At the state level, it should come as little surprise to our readers (see "<a href="">Illinois Pension Funding Ratio Sinks To 37.6% As Unfunded Liabilities Surge To $130 Billion</a>") that Illinois is at the very top of the list for the worst funded pension system in the country.</p> <p><a href=" - Pension 1.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 706px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Meanwhile, the worst funded state pensions will continue to see their underfunded liabilities continue to grow as they <strong>would have to dedicate anywhere from 15%-25% of their entire revenue base just to maintain their current funding levels...which, of course, is not likely.</strong></p> <p><a href=" - Pension 2_0.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 778px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>At the city level, again it should come as little surprise to our readers that Illinois was able to claim the top spot for worst State and City when it comes to pension liabilities.&nbsp; Here are a couple of recent posts on Chicago's pension disaster:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <ul> <li><a href="">How Chicago's Largest Pension May Run Out Of Cash In As Little As 4 Years</a></li> <li><a href="">Ponzi Scheme: What The Chicago Teachers' Pension Would Be Called If It Were A Hedge Fund</a></li> <li><a href="">Countdown To Insolvency Begins For Chicago Pensions As State Supreme Court Rejects Reform Bid</a></li> </ul> </blockquote> <p><a href=" - Pension 3.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 598px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Meanwhile, Chicago would have to spend nearly 45% of its annual budget on pension contributions just to avoid losing additional ground.</p> <p><a href=" - Pension 4.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 741px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Finally, Illinois nearly completed the coveted state, county and city trifecta but was narrowly 'bested' by Wayne County, Michigan.</p> <p><a href=" - Pension 6_0.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 697px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But when it comes to pension underfundings relative to county revenue sources, California clearly 'wins' the day with 10 of the worst 11 counties based in Cali.</p> <p><a href=" - Pension 7.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 745px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, as we've said many times before, these public pension problems can be ignored for a very long time as managers pursue the "kick the can down the road" strategy.&nbsp; <strong>That said, eventually each and every one of them will face an actual funding crisis that can only be solved with actual cash rather than funky pension math.&nbsp; When that day comes, people will look back and fondly reminisce about the "mild" recession of 2009.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="998" height="522" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Business Canada Pension Plan Economy Finance Financial services Governmental Accounting Standards Board Hoover Institution Illinois Investment Labor Liability Michigan Money Other postemployment benefits Pension Crisis Pensions Pensions crisis Personal finance Recession Social Issues State Supreme Court Wed, 24 May 2017 22:10:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 596575 at Crispin Odey: "Why Do I Remain Stubbornly Bearish?" <p>It was over half a year ago that many predicted<a href="">, this site included</a>, that Crispin Odey's double down, all in bet on central bank failure would be his "make it or break it" swan song, which if incorrect would also lead to the shuttering of his hedge fund. Well, rumors of Odey's demise appear to have been greatly exaggerated again, because despite being down 9.9% YTD and down 31.1% LTM in his Odey Mac fund, not only is Crispin Odey still around, but he is bearish as ever, as he explains in his latest April letter to clients.</p> <p><em>His full letter:</em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>Manager's Report</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This last quarter saw the first synchronised upturn in global economic growth for three years. Stock markets also, in profits terms, had the wind behind them because 1Q 2017 was being compared to 1Q 2016 when the world looked like it was falling apart. Ever since central banks pushed credit through the system a year ago, with China leading the way, asset prices, commodity prices and eventually consumer confidence have lifted up towards the sky. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>So why do I remain stubbornly bearish? </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Firstly because what got the developed world into its crisis in 2008 was "<strong>large widespread borrowing by individuals who could not repay their debts</strong>" and now what has got us out of our crisis, is luckily, "<strong>large widespread borrowing by individuals who could not repay their debts." </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In 1942 when Hitler’s Germany was at the gates of Kiev as well as Moscow, and Britain was on its own just surviving, Todt, Hitler’s Minister of Supply, startled Hitler by saying that the German war effort would stall. For his prescience he disappeared a week later when his plane fell to earth unexpectedly. But what he could see was that the lines of supply were at breaking point. Success was the necessary ingredient of failure. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The US economy is now operating above its operating capacity. Free capacity in the workforce is less than 3 months of growth</strong>. This is why Yellen and the Fed are keen to raise rates in June. The UK already has a gross savings rate of 6% against a necessary investment rate of 11% of GNP. Such a shortfall should call for higher interest rates to encourage savings to grow but no. With the Bank of England’s encouragement, <strong>consumer debt is rising at 8% per annum whilst wages are only rising by 2%. How long this madness? </strong>Japan will start in the second half of this year to eat its savings – whether sushi or tempura – as spending is financed by asset sales. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Subprime lending both facilitates and is driven by employment. Lend the man the loan for his car and the demand induced gives him the job that keeps the payments current. <strong>When that goes into reverse, and from a position of full employment it can only go one way, the consequences are easy to see. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>At the same time, whilst the Chinese have been enjoying 10.6% consumer spending growth and 7.6% economic growth, it came because they pushed 40% of GNP in new credit into the economy last year. An attempt to rein in this misallocated credit since March has immediately impacted economic growth and spending by 1% of GNP, to say nothing of the 20% falls in Chinese involved commodity prices. All of these instances of slowdown since March are threatening the reflation trade which has driven stock markets up and bond markets lower. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>What if we are not in a normalising cycle? What if last year was a rally in a bear market? What if China can no longer be the font of growth? What if the USA is not going to experience the economic boom attendant with tax cuts for the corporates, which rerated that market since November? </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>So far political worries have made no dent upon markets. Nothing has. But QE is now due to end over the next two years. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Venezuela signifies all that I think about today’s markets</strong>. The country is rightly enveloped in riots and misery. Individuals were forced to import $30 billion less in an economy of $150 billion of GNP. So individuals took a 20% hit to their already low living standards. This year they are forced to hand over $10 billion of precious dollars to both service their $110 billion of external debt and repay some. So where does the 135/8% of August 2018’s trade? I would have expected in the low-30’s. No, it trades in the mid-80’s. Remember that the only important lodestones for the investor have been: Is credit growing faster than nominal GNP? Is productivity growth accelerating or slowing? Is productivity growth at or around 2.5%? Because otherwise politicians are in trouble? <strong>Well, on all these measures the world is not getting out of its problems. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>And then when it comes to markets, we have to watch for ‘the Minsky moment’.</strong> Minsky argued that periods of low volatility, presaged crises because they encouraged excessive risk taking. Well, we are into the risk taking. <strong>But this fund truly does not demand that the end of the world comes tomorrow</strong>. The Chairman of EOG inc. in the USA said that 10 years ago it was necessary to invest $48 billion to extract a million barrels a day. Today it can be done with under $7 billion. Ten years ago it costs $55m to build a 15 megawatt solar plant. Today it costs $15m and it produces 40% more electricity. Disruptive technologies are everywhere. Anyone who built their plants 10 years ago using debt is in trouble. A bull market in equities has hidden the scale of that trouble. It will not just be subprime that undermines this cycle, disruptive technologies will do their bit too.</p> </blockquote> <p>* * * </p> <p>And here for those curious, is Odey's latest exposure and Top 10 long holdings:</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="636" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="620" height="310" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bank of England Bear Market Bond Business Causes of the Great Recession Central Banks China Consumer Confidence Economy Economy of the United States Germany Great Recession Japan Savings Rate Stock market crashes Subprime mortgage crisis Unemployment US Federal Reserve Volatility Wed, 24 May 2017 22:00:32 +0000 Tyler Durden 596594 at Two Simple Charts Explain The Devastating Consequences Of Obamacare <p>As the mainstream media and the original Affordable Care Act (ACA) architects attempt to saddle the Trump administration with the blame for Obamacare's epic implosion, we thought the following two charts, which highlight the staggering increases in premiums from 2013 through 2017, were a timely reminder that Obamacare's 'implosion' occurred long before people even thought Trump had a shot at the White House.&nbsp; </p> <p>Per the chart below from the <a href="">Department of Health and Human Services</a>, <strong>the average individual purchaser of health insurance across the United States saw their premiums increase from $232 per month in 2013 to $476 per month in 2017,</strong> a 'modest' increase of over 100% in just a few years.&nbsp; To put that into perspective, <strong>that's nearly $3,000 per year and roughly 9% of what the median American earns each year.</strong></p> <p><a href=" - Obamacare 2.JPG"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 460px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And while many will try to blame the Trump administration for the 2017 increases, recall that 2017 rates were set in the summer of 2016, a time when most viewed Trump as a long-shot for the White House.</p> <p>Meanwhile, as if a 100% average increase isn't bad enough, residents of many states incurred even more devastating increases of over 200%.</p> <p><a href=" - Obamacare 1.jpg"><img src="" style="width: 600px; height: 388px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But sure, it's all Trump's fault.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Here is the full report from the <a href="">Department of Health and Human Services</a>:</p> <p><iframe src=";view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-tRYo2VIF6suMWyABeF75&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="680" height="380" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> 111th United States Congress Department of Health and Human Services Donald Trump Health Internal Revenue Code Internal Revenue Service Obamacare Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Political positions of Donald Trump Presidency of Donald Trump Statutory law Trump Administration United States White House White House Wed, 24 May 2017 21:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 596553 at Manhunt For Suicide Bomber Accomplices Leads To Arrests In Libya, Manchester <p><em><strong>Update: </strong></em>Having mobilized hundreds of soldiers to protect key landmarks across London, the British police launced a huge manhunt for “a network” of accomplices who may have helped Salman Abedi build the suicide bomb and "who could be ready to kill again."&nbsp; Part of yesterday's hike in the UK risk threat assessment is the fear that Abedi could have been working as part of a group of accomplices with possible links to militant groups who have the competence to plot and execute suicide bombings.</p> <p>"<strong>The question is: Was he acting alone or was he part of a network of others who want to kill</strong>. That is what the investigation is focusing on," a source told Reuters adding that "the concern is that there may be others out there who helped him to make the bomb. Making a bomb of this sort requires a certain level of expertise and competence," the source said.</p> <p>At an afternoon press conference, Manchester Chief Constable Ian Hopkins said it is clear “this is a network we are investigating.” He declined to give any further details on the investigation. British police have declined to provide many details about the suspect, but a U.S. official has said he was a British citizen of Libyan descent. British officials believe he had recently returned from Libya. Hopkins also wouldn’t comment on whether police had found anyone who made the explosive device used in the attack.</p> <p>Moments ago Reuters reported that the younger brothers of the bombing suspect was arrested in Libya on suspicion of ISIS ties:</p> <ul> <li><strong>HASHEM ABEDI, YOUNGER BROTHER OF MANCHESTER ATTACKER, ARRESTED IN TRIPOLI BY COUNTER-TERRORISM FORCE ON SUSPICION OF ISLAMIC STATE LINKS</strong></li> <li><strong>BROTHER OF MANCHESTER ATTACKER ARRESTED IN TRIPOLI WAS PLANNING "TERRORIST ACT" IN THE LIBYAN CAPITAL - COUNTER-TERRORISM FORCE</strong></li> </ul> <p>Hashem Abedi <strong>confessed to being in the U.K. during preparations for Monday’s attack and was aware of all plans</strong>, said Ahmed Dagdoug of Radaa, one of several large militias responsible for security in Tripoli <a href="">quoted by the WSJ</a>.&nbsp; Radaa, which holds sway over part of the Libyan capital, said the <strong>younger Abedi was arrested late Tuesday in the city as he picked up a wire transfer of 4,500 Libyan dinar</strong>, or about $3,260, sent by his late brother, Salman.</p> <p>The group’s spokesman, Mr. Dagdoug, said it was also holding Abedi’s father, Ramadan Abedi, to aid in the investigation of the attack, which killed 22 people outside a concert by American singer Ariane Grande. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the Libyan group was in contact with British investigators, who on Tuesday in Manchester arrested a man one Western official identified as 23-year-old Ismail Abedi, another brother of the suspect.</p> <p>Meanwhile, in the UK the police arrested at least three more men as part of their investigation into the suicide bombing as authorities said they are pursuing a “network” in connection with the attack. The arrests in Manchester take the total currently in custody to four. Under British law, a person can be taken into custody in a terrorism investigation and held up to 14 days without charges.</p> <p>As reported earlier (see below), U.K. investigators told French authorities that Abedi had probably also traveled to Syria, according to the French interior minister. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>A leading theory is that the attacker may have received specialist training abroad or that there is a technician in the U.K. who constructed the bomb, the Western official said. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“To cause this many fatalities it has to be a viable device of a certain level of sophistication,” the official said, adding that it didn’t seem like something Abedi could have done by himself. Officials were still in the initial phase of the investigation, the person said.</p> </blockquote> <p>Earlier, Home Secretary Amber Rudd earlier told the British Broadcasting Corp. Abedi that Abedi was previously known to security services “up to a point.” “When this operation is over, we will want to look at his background and what happened, how he became radicalized and what support he might have been given,” she said.</p> <p>* * *</p> <p><strong><em>Earlier: </em></strong></p> <p>Just hours after <a href="">the UK raised its terror alert to Critical</a>, or the highest possible, for the first time in ten years, Britain’s Interior minister Amber Rudd said that Salman Abedi, the Manchester suicide bomber who killed 22 people at a concert venue, and had recently returned from Libya had likely not acted alone and troops were being deployed to key sites across Britain to help prevent further <a href="">attacks according to the FT</a>. </p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="281" /><br /><em>Salman Abedi, the suspect in the Manchester attack</em></p> <p>Rudd said on BBC radio that the bombing was “<strong>more sophisticated than some of the attacks we’ve seen before, and it seems likely, possible, that he wasn’t doing this on his own.” </strong>She said Abedi had been known to security services before the bombing. Asked about reports that Abedi had recently returned from Libya, Rudd said she believed that had now been confirmed. </p> <p>Rudd said up to 3,800 soldiers could be deployed on Britain's streets, taking on guard duties at places like Buckingham Palace and Downing Street to free up police to focus on patrols and investigation. An initial deployment of 984 had been ordered, initially in London, then elsewhere. The minister also <strong>scolded U.S. officials for leaking details about the investigation into the Manchester attack before British authorities were prepared to go public</strong>.</p> <p>Separately Rudd's French counterpart said Abedi had links with Islamic State and had probably visited Syria too. According to Reuters, French Interior Minister Gerard Collomb said British investigators had told French authorities Abedi had probably travelled to Syria as well.</p> <p><strong>"Today we only know what British investigators have told us - someone of British nationality, of Libyan origin, who suddenly after a trip to Libya, then probably to Syria, becomes radicalized and decides to carry out this attack," </strong>Collomb told BFMTV.&nbsp; Asked if he believed Abedi had the support of a network, Collomb said: "That is not known yet, but perhaps<strong>. In any case, (he had) links with Daesh (Islamic State) that are proven."</strong></p> <p>The Islamic State promptly claimed responsibility for the Manchester attack, but there were contradictions in its accounts of the action and a lack of crucial detail. </p> <p>As Collomb was speaking in France, Rudd was asked by the BBC about the fact that information about Abedi, including his name, had come out from the United States and whether she would look again at how information was shared with other countries. "Yes, quite frankly. I mean the British police have been very clear that they want to control the flow of information in order to protect operational integrity, the element of surprise, <strong>so it is irritating if it gets released from other sources and I have been very clear with our friends that should not happen again."</strong></p> <p>Asked whether the U.S. leaks had compromised the investigation, she said: "I wouldn't go that far but I can say that they are perfectly clear about the situation and that it shouldn't happen again."</p> <p>According to <a href="">Bloomberg</a>, "it is rare for the U.K. government to publicly criticize the U.S. and in such blunt terms. The rebuke raises the risk that key allies could become more reluctant to share vital security information with the world’s superpower."</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The bomber’s name, Salman Ramadan Abedi, was first revealed early on Tuesday by CBS in the U.S. and hours later the U.K. authorities put out a statement refusing to confirm the information until a formal identification had been completed. The police said any speculation would be “unhelpful and potentially damaging” to the investigation. It was only much later in the day, that the U.K. confirmed his identity.</p> </blockquote> <p>Separately, Manchester Police said on Wednesday <a href="">morning three men had been arrested </a>“after police executed warrants in south Manchester” in connection with the continuing investigation.</p> <p>On Tuesday police raided the Abedi family home in the Fallowfield district of south Manchester, in one of three operations carried out as authorities tried to establish whether Abedi was working alone or as part of a network. Family friends and neighbours said Abedi’s parents were originally from Libya and recently returned to the country.</p> <p>The son of Libyan immigrants, British-born Abedi, 22, blew himself up on Monday night at the Manchester Arena indoor venue at the end of a concert by U.S. pop singer Ariana Grande. His 22 victims included an eight-year-old girl, several teenage girls, a 28-year-old man and a Polish couple who had come to collect their daughters. The bombing also left 64 people wounded, of whom 20 were still receiving critical care for highly traumatic injuries.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="700" height="394" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Abidi Africa British police Eastern Mediterranean France Geography of Africa Government of Australia Kevin Rudd Libya Manchester Arena Manchester police North Africa Politics of Australia Reuters Rudd Government UK Government War Wed, 24 May 2017 21:19:28 +0000 Tyler Durden 596534 at A Troubling Statistic: Illinois Has The Nation's Highest Black Unemployment Rate <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Michael Lucci via,</em></a></p> <div class="intro"><span>New Bureau of Labor Statistics data show Illinois&rsquo; black residents have an unemployment rate of 12.7 percent, <strong>more than double the state&rsquo;s overall rate. </strong></span></div> <p><a href="" target="_blank">Illinois had the nation&rsquo;s highest black unemployment rate in 2016</a>, according to <a href="">annual unemployment data</a> released by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics, or BLS.<strong> Only 51 percent of black adults reported having some form of work in Illinois, highlighting an economic crisis that far too few political leaders are talking about. </strong>The BLS data support the conclusions in recent <a href="">quarterly reports from the Economic Policy Institute</a>, which have pointed to Illinois as having the nation&rsquo;s highest black unemployment.</p> <p>Illinois&rsquo; weak job creation has a significant effect on the black community, especially due to manufacturing job losses in the Chicago area and a lack of construction job opportunities. Illinois&rsquo; black unemployment rate was 12.7 percent in 2016, <strong>compared with 6.7 percent for Latinos and 5 percent for whites.</strong></p> <p><strong>Illinois&rsquo; 12.7 percent black jobless rate is the highest in the U.S., tied with Nevada.</strong> However, Illinois&rsquo; black population is seven times as large as Nevada&rsquo;s, meaning Illinois&rsquo; crisis is playing out on a much larger scale. Illinois&rsquo; neighboring states achieved much lower black jobless rates than Illinois in 2016. (BLS does not calculate a black unemployment rate for Iowa, however, because the state&rsquo;s black population does not constitute a sample large enough to be included in the BLS survey.)</p> <p><strong>The weighted average black jobless rate for all other states is 8.1 percent, and the weighted average among Illinois&rsquo; border states is 8.9 percent.</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img height="519" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Perhaps equally telling is Illinois&rsquo; black employment rate &ndash; the percentage of black adults who are engaged in some form of work. <strong>Illinois&rsquo; black employment rate is only 51.2 percent, compared with 63.2 percent for whites and 65 percent for Latinos.&nbsp;</strong>Illinois&rsquo; 51.2 percent black employment rate means that just over half of Illinois&rsquo; adult black residents have some form of work. Michigan is the only state with a lower black employment rate than Illinois.</p> <p>The weighted average black employment rate for other states is 56.8 percent, and the weighted average among Illinois&rsquo; border states is 59.2 percent.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" /></a></p> <p>Black employment in Illinois fell by 18,000 people from 2015 to 2016, and the number of black workers in Illinois&rsquo; labor force shrank by 16,000. Despite the shrinking workforce, the black unemployment rate increased to 12.7 percent from 12.2 percent year over year.</p> <p><strong>The number of black people working in Illinois has been in decline since the turn of the century.</strong> There were 77,000 fewer blacks working in Illinois in 2016 compared with 2000, a shocking 10 percent decline in total employment. By comparison, Illinois&rsquo; combined white and Latino employment is actually up by 272,000 since 2000, according to the <a href="">BLS&rsquo; annual average data</a>.</p> <p><strong>Similarly, the recovery in black employment over the Great Recession era lags that of the rest of the state. <u>Black employment is still down 5.1 percent compared with its pre-recession high.</u></strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1450" height="767" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Causes of unemployment in the United States Economic Policy Institute Economy Full employment Illinois Illinois Labor Michigan New Bureau Recession Recession recovery Social Issues Social justice Structure Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment in the United States Wed, 24 May 2017 21:10:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 596587 at CBO: Obamacare Repeal Will Cut Deficit By $119 Billion, Leave 23 Million More Uninsured <p>The CBO has finally scored the House-passed healthcare bill, H.R.1628 (which as a reminder remains DOA in the Senate), and finds modest improvement <a href="">relative to its last scoring of the proposed Healthcare bill as of March 23.</a> Here are the apples to apples comparisons with the last proposed version of the bill: </p> <ul> <li>Under the House-passed Bill, <strong>the US budget deficit would be reduced by $119 billion between 2017 and 2026</strong>. This is $31 billion less than the proposed March bill, which would have <strong>lowered the deficit by $150 billion</strong>.</li> <li>Offsetting the smaller benefit on the deficit, the CBO found that the <strong>number of Americans expected to lose their health coverage would rise to 23 million in 2026</strong>, which is <strong>1 million fewer than the 24 million </strong>forecast in March, or roughly $31 billion in spending over 10 years to provide 1 million Americans with insurance over the same time period.</li> <li>The CBO concludes that in 2026, <strong>an estimated 51 million people under age 65 would be uninsured</strong>, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law. Under the last CBO estimate, the number of Americans wihtout insurance in 2026 was 52 million of Americans under 65, so an improvement of 1 million as expected. </li> </ul> <p>Below is the "bridge" of the budget deficit reduction from the CBO:</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="623" /></a></p> <p>The key details from the official score:</p> <ul> <li>CBO and JCT estimate that, over the 2017-2026 period, enacting H.R. 1628 would reduce direct spending by $1,111 billion and reduce revenues by $992 billion, <strong>for a net reduction of $119 billion in the deficit over that period </strong>(see Table 1, at the end of this document). The provisions dealing with health insurance coverage would reduce the deficit, on net, by $783 billion; the noncoverage provisions would increase the deficit by $664 billion, mostly by reducing revenues.</li> <li>CBO and JCT estimate that, in 2018, <strong>14 million more people would be uninsured under H.R. 1628 than under current law</strong>. The increase in the number of uninsured people relative to the number projected <strong>under current law would reach 19 million in 2020 and 23 million in 2026</strong>. </li> <li>In 2026, an estimated <strong>51 million people under age 65 would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law. </strong>Under the legislation, a few million of those people would use tax credits to purchase policies that would not cover major medical risks.</li> </ul> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="363" /></a></p> <p>Furthermore, since much of the impact of the GOP bill would be at the state level and whether states request various waivers, the CBO added the following discussion on the impact of premiums on state-specific impacts:</p> <ul> <li><strong>About half the population resides in states that would not request waivers regarding the EHBs or community rating, CBO and JCT project. </strong>In those states, <strong>average premiums in the nongroup market would be about 4 percent lower in 2026 than under current law, </strong>mostly because a younger and healthier population would be purchasing the insurance. The changes in premiums would vary for people of different ages. A change in the rules governing how much more insurers can charge older people than younger people, effective in 2019, would directly alter the premiums faced by different age groups, substantially reducing premiums for young adults and raising premiums for older people.</li> <li><strong>About one-third of the population resides in states that would make moderate changes to market regulations. </strong>In those states, CBO and JCT expect that, overall, <strong>average premiums in the nongroup market would be roughly 20 percent lower in 2026 than under current law, </strong>primarily because, on average, insurance policies would provide fewer benefits. Although the changes to regulations affecting community rating would be limited, the extent of the changes in the EHBs would vary widely; the estimated reductions in average premiums range from 10 percent to 30 percent in different areas of the country. The reductions for younger people would be substantially larger and those for older people substantially smaller.</li> <li><strong>Finally, about one-sixth of the population resides in states that would obtain waivers involving both the EHBs and community rating and that would allow premiums to be set on the basis of an individual’s health status in a substantial portion of the nongroup market, CBO and JCT anticipate. </strong>As in other states, average premiums would be lower than under current law because a younger and healthier population would be purchasing the insurance and because large changes to the EHB requirements would cause plans to a cover a smaller percentage of expected health care costs. In addition, premiums would vary significantly according to health status and the types of benefits provided, and less healthy people would face extremely high premiums, despite the additional funding that would be available under H.R. 1628 to help reduce premiums. <strong>Over time, it would become more difficult for less healthy people (including people with preexisting medical conditions) in those states to purchase insurance because their premiums would continue to increase rapidly</strong>. As a result of the narrower scope of covered benefits and the difficulty less healthy people would face purchasing insurance, average premiums for people who did purchase insurance would generally be lower than in other states—but the variation around that average would be very large. CBO and JCT do not have an estimate of how much lower those premiums would be.</li> <li>Although premiums would decline, on average, in states that chose to narrow the scope of EHBs, some people enrolled in nongroup insurance would experience substantial increases in what they would spend on health care. <strong>People living in states modifying the EHBs who used services or benefits no longer included in the EHBs would experience substantial increases in out-of-pocket spending on health care or would choose to forgo the services</strong>. Services or benefits likely to be excluded from the EHBs in some states include maternity care, mental health and substance abuse benefits, rehabilitative and habilitative services, and pediatric dental benefits. In particular, out-of-pocket spending on maternity care and mental health and substance abuse services could increase by thousands of dollars in a given year for the nongroup enrollees who would use those services. Moreover, the ACA’s ban on annual and lifetime limits on covered benefits would no longer apply to health benefits not defined as essential in a state. As a result, for some benefits that might be removed from a state’s definition of EHBs but that might not be excluded from insurance coverage altogether, some enrollees could see large increases in out-of-pocket spending because annual or lifetime limits would be allowed. That could happen, for example, to some people who use expensive prescription drugs. Out-of-pocket payments for people who have relatively high health care spending would increase most in the states that obtained waivers from the requirements for both the EHBs and community rating.</li> </ul> <p>Full CBO document below (<a href="">link</a>)</p> <p><iframe src=";view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-DS6VERQVSGulUqQEw9FM&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1024" height="682" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> 111th United States Congress 115th United States Congress American Health Care Act Budget Deficit Business Economy of the United States Health Health Health in the United States Health insurance Health insurance coverage in the United States Health insurance in the United States Healthcare reform in the United States Internal Revenue Code Internal Revenue Service National debt of the United States Obamacare Presidency of Barack Obama Republican Party Senate Social Issues Statutory law United States United States federal budget United States fiscal cliff Wed, 24 May 2017 20:51:59 +0000 Tyler Durden 596589 at