http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/%2A%7CARCHIVE%7C%2A/%2A%7CFORWARD%7C%2A en Senate Releases Full Text Of "Skinny" Obamacare Repeal Bill, Vote Expected After Midnight http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/senate-releases-full-text-skinny-obamacare-repeal-bill-vote-expected-after-midnight <p>With the Senate healthcare vote expected sometime between midnight and 2am, moments ago the full text of the Senate "Skinny" bill which may or may not pass, has been released. Here is the summary version of what is hereby known as the "<strong><em>The Health Care Freedom Act</em></strong>":</p> <ul> <li><strong>REPEAL THE INDIVIDUAL MANDATE </strong>— Obamacare's individual mandate forced the American people to purchase insurance they frequently didn't want, couldn't afford or actually use. This plan permanently protects Americans from this onerous mandate.</li> <li><strong>REPEAL THE EMPLOYER MANDATE </strong>— Obamacare's employer mandate too often forced job creators to forgo hiring new workers or keep an employee's hours low. This anti-jobs mandate is repealed for eight years, which provides employers a greater incentive to hire more employees.</li> <li><strong>PROVIDE FLEXIBILITY TO STATES (1332 WAIVERS)— </strong>States can access additional flexibility to use waivers that exist in current law to provide more options for consumers to buy the health insurance they want. It also allows the Department of Health and Human Services to approve waivers faster.</li> <li><strong>INCREASE HSA CONTRIBUTIONS </strong>— Increase contribution limits to tax-free Health Savings Accounts for three years to help pay for out-of-pocket health costs and expensive prescription medications.</li> <li><strong>REPEAL THE MEDICAL DEVICE TAX </strong>— Both Democrats and Republicans have opposed this tax on medical innovation. The legislation repeals this tax for three years.</li> <li><strong>FUND COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTERS </strong>— Prioritize health funding for Community Health Centers across the country.</li> </ul> <p>The full bill also includes a provision for defunding Planned Parenthood, which is the reason for the community health center language.</p> <p>As the NYT <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/us/politics/obamacare-partial-repeal-senate-republicans-revolt.html">reports</a>, after three days of debate, Republican leaders had little to show for it and were struggling to devise even a stripped-down plan on which at least 50 of the 52 Senate Republicans could agree. The Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, was doing whatever he could to secure votes and win Senate approval on Friday for a bill that would repeal at least a few provisions of the Affordable Care Act. That raised the spectacle of senators pressed by their leaders to vote on legislation that some of them despise, with a promise that a “yes” would not really be approval, just a vote to start House-Senate negotiations on something better.</p> <p>Senators Lindsey Graham South Carolina, John McCain of Arizona and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, all Republicans, simply demanded ironclad assurances from House leaders that the bill would not be enacted.</p> <p>“I’m not going to vote for a bill that is terrible policy and horrible politics just because we have to get something done,” Mr. Graham said, calling the stripped-down bill a “disaster” and a “fraud” as a replacement for the health law. </p> <p>Five GOP senators,&nbsp; Sens. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), David Perdue (Ga.), Ron Johnson (Wis.), Mike Rounds (S.D.) and Ted Cruz (Texas), spoke with Ryan via phone in Sen. John Cornyn's leadership office outside of the Senate floor.&nbsp; </p> <p>"Yes, he said, listen why would we want to own a bill that increases premiums and doesn't fix ObamaCare — that's all I wanted to hear from him," <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/344260-gop-senators-back-obamacare-repeal-after-ryan-call">Graham told reporters </a>when asked if Ryan guaranteed the House wouldn't pass a paired down Senate repeal bill.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Pressed if he would vote "yes" on the Senate GOP healthcare bill after his conversation with Ryan, Graham said he would. Johnson added that "of course" the talk with Ryan was enough to assuage his concerns.&nbsp; "We just wanted to hear it right from Paul. ... We got that assurance. He said we could tell you — this is going to go to conference," the conservative GOP senator said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Johnson added that any bill that passes the Senate "will not pass the House. This will go to conference. ... That's what we got." Johnson and Graham, as well as GOP Sens. Bill Cassidy (La.) and John McCain (Ariz.),&nbsp; warned earlier Thursday that they could not support moving forward with a "skinny" repeal bill until they got a guarantee that the House would not leapfrog a conference with Senate and pass the bill. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Paul issued a statement saying the House was "willing" to go to conference on the healthcare bills, but that it was up to Senate Republicans to first show they could pass a bill.&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>McCain told reporters while heading into the Senate chamber for a pair of votes that Ryan's statement wasn't sufficient. He then appeared to walk that back slightly, telling Bloomberg that he declined to say how he would vote, saying he wanted to talk to his state's governor.</p> </blockquote> <p>Earlier, Sen, Shelley Moore Capito told reporters while leaving the GOP caucus room that she "didn't know how to interpret" Ryan's statement. </p> <p>Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will need 50 of 52 GOP senators to support the "skinny" repeal proposal, which he unveiled on the Senate floor on Thursday night</p> <p>Some further observations on the bill from Politico's Burgess Everett (via Twitter):</p> <ul> <li>McConnell says the bill "restores freedom to Americans, that Obamacare took away."</li> <li>McConnell is selling the skinny bill as good policy and also as a path to conference.</li> <li>This bill was not designed for Collins and Murkowski, so GOP looking for everyone that voted to open debate to support the skinny bill.</li> <li>Murphy: "This is nuclear grade bonkers what is happening here"</li> </ul> <p>Some more from NBC's Frank Thorp (via Twitter):</p> <ul> <li>Sen Rounds on mtg with @SpeakerRyan: "He acknowledged that this particular bill was designed to get us to conference..."</li> <li>More Rounds: "(@SpeakerRyan) said we will bring it to conference. And we asked, can we say that publicly, and he said, yes."</li> <li>Sen Rounds: "(Speaker Ryan) has given us about as good of an assurance as you can get that he intends to send this to conference."</li> <li>The vote series including the vote on the 'skinny repeal' bill is expected to happen around midnight tonight.</li> </ul> <p>Having been written off earlier, it increasingly looks as if the bill may just have enough support to pass, with the tie-breaking vote from Mike Pence who is expected to be present for a potential vote later.</p> <p><em>The full text of the pared-down "skinny bill" is below (<a href="https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/HealthCareFreedomAct.pdf">link</a>):</em></p> <p><iframe src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/354914950/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-XNozvsaT5L3y5fyc3DbB&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="840" height="526" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/mcconnell%20teaser_6.jpg?1501208434" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/senate-releases-full-text-skinny-obamacare-repeal-bill-vote-expected-after-midnight#comments 111th United States Congress 115th United States Congress American Health Care Act Barack Obama Department of Health and Human Services Efforts to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Excises Internal Revenue Code Internal Revenue Service John McCain John McCain Labor Mitch McConnell Obamacare Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Politics Presidency of Barack Obama Republican Party Senate Social Issues Sons of the American Revolution South Carolina Statutory law Ted Cruz Twitter Twitter United States Fri, 28 Jul 2017 02:25:36 +0000 Tyler Durden 600644 at http://www.zerohedge.com One Chart Shows The Awful Fiscal Trajectory Of Chicago Area And Illinois http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/one-chart-shows-awful-fiscal-trajectory-chicago-area-and-illinois <p><a href="http://www.wirepoints.com/one-chart-shows-awful-fiscal-trajectory-of-chicago-area-and-illinois-wp-original/"><em>Authored by Mark Glennon via WirePoints.com,</em></a></p> <p><strong><em>&ldquo;Net position&rdquo;</em> is the government accounting term used for a balance sheet snapshot.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/27/20170727_bad.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/27/20170727_bad_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 461px;" /></a></p> <p><em>The chart shows net positions, in billions, for each of the last ten year ends, taken from the most recent CAFR, the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report, for Illinois, the City of Chicago (which are plotted on the right axis) and for Chicago&rsquo;s two largest overlapping units of government, Cook County and the Chicago Public School District (which are plotted on the left).</em></p> <p>Some of the drop in net position results from changes in pension assumptions and restatements resulting from changes in accounting standards. In particular, the drops from 2014 to 2015 are due largely to restatements based on new government accounting standards for pensions.</p> <p><strong>However, that doesn&rsquo;t mean those losses should be disregarded.</strong> New assumptions and standards represent an admission that prior ones weren&rsquo;t fairly representing financial condition.</p> <p>Had the new standards been in place earlier, the losses would only have been pushed back into earlier years.</p> <p><u><strong>Aside from the terrifying trend, the chart also exposes the silliness of &ldquo;balanced budget&rdquo; claims. </strong></u></p> <p>All these units of government, to my knowledge, operated under budgets they claimed were balanced in each of these years (except the State of Illinois for 2016, during which it had no budget).</p> <p>I asked Bill Bergman of <a href="http://www.truthinaccounting.org/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Truth in Accounting</a> for his reaction to the chart:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>It&rsquo;s fun, or sad and scary, or all of the above, to consider what this means for a citizen of the City of Chicago. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>That person is not only a citizen of the City of Chicago, but is <strong>also impacted by the financials of the Chicago Public Schools, Cook County, and the State of Illinois.&nbsp;&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Adding things up, back in 2007, he was being told that things were basically flat.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The latest aggregate net position came to over $250 billion &mdash; negative.&nbsp; That&rsquo;s a lot of dough.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Importantly, he added, <em><strong>&ldquo;The accounting changes aren&rsquo;t over.&nbsp; We have yet to recognize retiree health care and other retirement benefits on the balance sheet, for example. We have a lot of ditch-digging ahead of us.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> <p><em>Here&rsquo;s a promise: The trend will continue. Recent tax increases will have little impact. Only drastic policy reversals, which aren&rsquo;t in the cards with this General Assembly, would turn this around.</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="666" height="512" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170727_bad.jpg?1501189060" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/one-chart-shows-awful-fiscal-trajectory-chicago-area-and-illinois#comments Accounting Balance sheet Business economics Chicago Public School District Comprehensive annual financial report Economy Financial reporting Financial statement General Assembly Government Accountability Office Illinois Political corruption Social Issues Truth in Accounting United States administrative law United States Generally Accepted Accounting Principles Fri, 28 Jul 2017 02:15:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 600637 at http://www.zerohedge.com Wells Fargo Forced Unwanted Auto Insurance On 800,000 Borrowers http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/wells-fargo-busted-forcing-unwanted-auto-insurance-800000-borrowers <p>One year after Wells Fargo was busted in the biggest post-financial crisis scandal, when Warren Buffett's favorite bank was exposed for fraudulently "cross-selling" bank products, including creating millions of credit cards and bank accounts to its customers that were never requested, and which cost the former CEO his job, Wells has just been busted yet again for another major scandal: the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/business/wells-fargo-unwanted-auto-insurance.html?mcubz=0">NYT's Gretchen Morgenson</a> writes that more than 800,000 people who took out car loans from Wells Fargo were <strong>also charged for auto insurance they did not need, </strong>and some are still paying for it, according to a 60-page internal report prepared by Oliver Wyman for Wells execs. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The report, which was prepared by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, looked at insurance policies sold to Wells customers from January 2012 through July 2016. The insurance, which the bank required, was more expensive than auto insurance that customers often already had obtained on their own.</p> </blockquote> <p>Wells Fargo automatically imposed the insurance through its Dealer Services unit. Its website says it has more than four million customers and provides a variety of banking services to 14,000 auto dealers around the nation. It says the company’s lender-placed auto insurance “may be considerably more expensive than insurance you can obtain on your own.” The NYT adds that "such policies typically cost more than $1,000 a year, not counting interest. (Customers could pay them in full or finance them over time.) If a car was repossessed, the bank might charge a reinstatement fee of as much as $500, so a borrower could face $1,500 in charges."</p> <p>It gets better: the expense on the unneeded insurance (which covered collision damage) has <strong>pushed some 274,000 Wells Fargo customers into delinquency and resulted in almost 25,000 wrongful vehicle repossessions</strong>. And the cherry on top: "among the Wells Fargo customers hurt by the practice were military service members on active duty."</p> <p>Not even bothering to lie, when asked about the revelations in the Wyman report, Wells officials confirmed that the improper insurance practices took place but said the bank was determined to make customers whole.</p> <p>“We have a huge responsibility and fell short of our ideals for managing and providing oversight of the third-party vendor and our own operations,” Franklin R. Codel, the head of consumer lending at Wells Fargo, said in an interview. “We self-identified this issue, and we made the right business decisions to end the placement of the product.”</p> <p>In other words, oops: we were busted for doing almost the exact same thing a year ago and we swore it would never happen again, but now that it has happened again, we will make everyone whole, promise.</p> <p>National General Insurance underwrote the policies for Wells Fargo, which began to require the insurance on auto loans as early as 2006, according to the NYT. <strong>The practice continued until the end of September</strong>.</p> <p>And here is the punchline in the upcoming congressional hearings where Elizabeth Warren will make sure more top-level execs will lost their jobs: for borrowers, delinquencies arose quickly because of the way the bank charged for the insurance. The NYT gives the following example: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Say, for example, that a customer agreed to a monthly payment of $275 in principal and interest on her car loan, and arranged for the amount to be deducted from her bank account automatically. If she were not advised about the insurance and it increased her monthly payment to, say, $325, her account could become overdrawn as soon as Wells Fargo added the coverage.</p> </blockquote> <p>As a result, the report estimated that the bank owed $73 million to customers who were hurt as a result of this grossly fraudulent practice. </p> <p>The laws broken by Wells in this latest fiasco were many but the most notable one is that <strong>state insurance regulations required Wells Fargo to notify customers of the insurance before it was imposed </strong>something the bank rarely did according to the report said. And almost 100,000 of the policies violated the disclosure requirements of five states — Arkansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Tennessee and Washington.</p> <p>As for the reason why Wells stock will get pounded tomorrow, the report also found that borrowers sustained financial damages <strong>beyond the costs of the insurance</strong>. The harm also included repossession costs, late fees, charges for insufficient funds and damage to consumers’ credit reports. In other words, Wells has just opened itself to mass, and open-ended litigation which could run well into the billions.</p> <p>The mechanics of the fraud:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Here is how the process worked: When customers financed cars with Wells Fargo, the buyers’ information would go to National General, which was supposed to check a database to see if the owner had insurance coverage. If not, the insurer would automatically impose coverage on the customers’ accounts, adding an extra layer of premiums and interest to their loans.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>When customers who checked their bills saw the charges and notified Wells Fargo that they already had car insurance, the bank was supposed to cancel the insurance and credit the borrower with the amount that had been charged.</p> </blockquote> <p>Iin some cases the bank did just that. In most cases, nobody noticed and the scheme continued: "The Oliver Wyman report indicated that many customers appear not to have notified Wells Fargo of the redundant insurance. This may have been because their payments were deducted automatically from their bank accounts and they did not spot the charges."</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>According to documents on a Wells Fargo website titled “understanding your auto loan,” the bank had strict rules about the order in which it would apply a customer’s car payment to costs associated with the loan: First to be deducted from a payment would be the interest owed on the car loan. Then the bank would deduct interest charged on the lender-placed insurance. The third deduction would be principal on the loan, followed by the amount of premium owed on the insurance.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This payment structure had the effect of increasing the overall interest borrowers paid on their loans, the Oliver Wyman report noted, because fewer dollars went to reducing the principal outstanding.</p> </blockquote> <p>“We take full responsibility for these errors and are deeply sorry for any harm we caused customers,” said Jennifer Temple, who then tried to non-GAAP the bank's liability, saying the bank had determined only 570,000 of its customers may qualify for a refund and that just 60,000 customers in the five states had not received complete disclosures before the insurance placement. Finally, she said, the bank estimated the insurance may have contributed to 20,000 wrongful repossessions, not 25,000.</p> <p>That "excuse" probably won't go over too smoothly in Congress.</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/wells%20fargo%20how%20low_0.jpg" width="500" height="375" /></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="500" height="284" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/how%20low%20can%20fargo%20go.jpg?1501206537" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/wells-fargo-busted-forcing-unwanted-auto-insurance-800000-borrowers#comments Bank Banking Business Congress Consumer lending Economy Elizabeth Warren Finance Financial District, San Francisco Gretchen Morgenson Insurance Michigan Money Payday loan Payment protection insurance Types of insurance Vehicle insurance Wells Fargo Wells Fargo Fri, 28 Jul 2017 01:50:54 +0000 Tyler Durden 600643 at http://www.zerohedge.com Companies Turn To Convicts To Fill "Skilled Labor Shortage"; Ignore 95 Million "Out Of Labor Force" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/companies-turn-convicts-fill-skilled-labor-shortage-ignore-95-million-out-labor-forc <p>A lot of time has been spent of late discussing the apparent "labor shortage" in the U.S. economy.&nbsp; In fact, just this morning, the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/ex-convicts-help-companies-fill-need-for-skilled-labor-1501156800">Wall Street Journal</a> ran an alarming headline alleging that the <strong>market for "skilled labor" has become so tight that housing companies across the nation are having to recruit convicted felons</strong> in order to keep up with building demands.&nbsp; </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Erickson Cos., a Chandler, Ariz., based construction firm, <strong>has hired almost 30 former inmates from Arizona state prisons </strong>over the past year to build frames for new homes, an effort to cope with skilled-labor scarcity.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“We’re searching for every alternative avenue that we possibly can to help solve this labor shortage,” </strong>Rich Gallagher, Erickson’s chief executive, said in an interview.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Erickson is part of what appears to be a nationwide trend. As the jobless rate falls, employers in places including Arizona, Indiana and Maryland are scouring the fringes of the labor market for able-bodied workers, including ex-offenders.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Erickson, which has about 250 employees in Arizona and roughly 1,000 nationwide, has been recruiting directly from corrections department job fairs for prisoners nearing release. Karen Hellman, director of inmate programs and re-entry, said there has been a noticeable uptick in companies looking to hire inmates this year.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“I’ve never dealt with employers who are more willing to hire ex-felons,”</strong> said John Nally, who started working at the Indiana Department of Correction in 1967 and is now its director of education.<strong> “It is a totally different landscape when you have an unemployment rate of 3.6%. We have all these people in construction who are literally begging for workers.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>And with more than 600,000 sentenced prisoners nationwide released from state or federal prisons each year, ex-cons do offer a steady, if somewhat risky, stream of potential applicants.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27 - Convicts.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27%20-%20Convicts_0.JPG" style="width: 600px; height: 594px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p> That said, <strong>we continue to be somewhat perplexed by the apparent 'labor shortage' plaguing the the U.S. economy.</strong>&nbsp; As Goldman's econ team pointed out earlier today, the lack of wage growth among recent graduates seems to be somewhat inconsistent with an economy experiencing true labor shortages.&nbsp; </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27 - Goldman 2.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27%20-%20Goldman%202_0.JPG" style="width: 600px; height: 395px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, <strong>maybe that's because there isn't really a "labor shortage" at all, but rather, a massive skills gap resulting from decades of American youth being indoctrinated with the notion that focusing on obtaining a skills-based trade job, rather than going to college, was somehow demeaning, racist and/or misogynistic.&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>You know, because throwing 10's of thousands of dollars at millions of high school kids who will use their <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-09/study-finds-31-college-students-spend-their-student-loan-money-spring-break">taxpayer-subsidized student loans for hedonistic, binge-drinking spring break trips to Cancun</a>, <strong>all while 'earning' a 1.5 GPA in anthropology from a state school and then returning to mom's basement with no job after graduation, is just so much more enlightened and progressive.</strong></p> <p>Meanwhile, the cost of that progressivism is an economy that has ~95 million people who have voluntarily taken themselves out of the labor force, <strong>many because they simply don't possess the right skills or are unwilling to take jobs that they've been convinced are 'demeaning.'</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27 - Not in Labor Force.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27%20-%20Not%20in%20Labor%20Force_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 387px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, for those who still aren't convinced....perhaps you have another explanation for why over 30% of the ~75 million 18-34 year olds in this country (roughly 22.5 million people) are currently living at home with mom and dad?</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27 - Millennials at home.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27%20-%20Millennials%20at%20home_0.JPG" style="width: 600px; height: 445px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="661" height="390" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017.07.27%20-%20Felon%20Jobs.JPG?1501179797" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/companies-turn-convicts-fill-skilled-labor-shortage-ignore-95-million-out-labor-forc#comments Indiana Indiana Department of Correction Labor Penology Prison Student Loans Unemployment Wall Street Journal Fri, 28 Jul 2017 01:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 600629 at http://www.zerohedge.com Mark Hanson Reveals "The Next Housing Bubble" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/next-us-housing-bubble-has-arrived <p>The striking Case-Shiller regional charts shown below, courtesy of <a href="http://www.mhanson.com">MHanson.com</a>, make Mark Hanson angry: "so, 2006/2007 was the largest house price bubble ever, but there is nothing to see here in 2017?" and sarcastically points out that "if this isn't a house price bubble, I would hate to see one." </p> <p>His bottom line:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>If 2006/07 was the peak of the largest housing bubble in history with affordability never better vis a’ vis exotic loans; easy availability of credit; unemployment in the 4%’s; the total workforce at record highs; and growing wages, <strong>then what do you call “now” with house prices at or above 2006 levels; worse affordability; tighter credit; higher unemployment; a weakening total workforce; and shrinking wages? </strong>Whatever you call it, it’s a greater thing than the Bubble 1.0 peak.</p> </blockquote> <p>And visually:</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/housing%20bubble%202.0.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/housing%20bubble%202.0_1.jpg" width="564" height="569" /></a></p> <p>Below are some further observations and "red-flags" from Hanson on Peak Housing, after the latest new home sales data:</p> <ul> <li>Sharp downward sales revisions for past 3-months.</li> <li>Huge downward price revisions for past 3-months, lower by 10%, 5% and 3%, respectively, exactly as I predicted on last month's release.</li> <li>Builders maxed out on pricing power; Med &amp; avg prices flat for 2-years.</li> <li>The all-important Southern Region was flat YY; the South makes up over half of all sales in the nation, and drives builder demand and profits.</li> <li>100% of the June YY sales gain came from the Western Region, which doesn't jibe with the weak price performance and will likely be revised lower next month.</li> <li>Income required to buy the avg priced builder house is at historical highs and has completely diverged from the multi-decade trend line.</li> <li>Historically low growth &amp; rebound relative to resales suggest "lack of supply" meme in the Existing Sales market is over-stated.</li> </ul> <p>As he says, "Peak builder is here."</p> <p>Finally some other quantitative and qualitative observations from the housing guru:</p> <p><strong>1) New Home Sales "up to" 1995 levels after $15 TRILLION in debt and Fed liquidity aimed largely at the sector.</strong></p> <p><strong>2) Builder pricing power largely flat for 2-years.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/bub1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/bub1.jpg" width="564" height="376" /></a></p> <p><strong>3) Income required to buy the average priced builder house has completely diverged from the multi-decade trend line. This obviously explains why sales are only at 600k SAAR now vs 1.2 million in Bubble 1.0. </strong>Reversion to this mean will occur...either thru a sharp rise in income; new exotic loan programs, which make payment less; or house prices dropping.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/bub2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/bub2.jpg" width="564" height="376" /></a></p> <p><strong>4) Last time builders were this euphoric was the peak of the biggest credit bubble in history.<br /><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/bub3.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/bub3.jpg" width="564" height="376" /></a></strong></p> <p><strong>5) It's too bad the public isn't as euphoric about buying as the builders think they are.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/bub4.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/bub4.jpg" width="564" height="376" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="2776" height="289" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/housing%20bubble%202.0%20teaser_0.jpg?1501164940" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/next-us-housing-bubble-has-arrived#comments Business Case-Shiller Economic bubble Economic history Economy Financial crises HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT House prices Housing Bubble Macroeconomics New Home Sales Pricing Real estate bubble Unemployment United States housing market correction US Federal Reserve Fri, 28 Jul 2017 01:41:58 +0000 Tyler Durden 600597 at http://www.zerohedge.com Hegemony Is A Three-Player Game http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/hegemony-three-player-game <p><a href="https://dailyreckoning.com/hegemony-three-player-game/"><em>Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,</em></a></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Three-player games are easy to model - <em><strong>it&rsquo;s always two against one</strong></em>. The art of geopolitics and examining hegemony powers in such situations is to be part of a duo that pressures the remaining player, or, <strong>at a minimum, keep the other two players separated</strong>.</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;">This is basic balance-of-power politics as practiced since the rise of Napoleon (1799), with antecedents in the Treaty of Westphalia (1648), and Machiavelli&rsquo;s The Prince (1532).</span></p> <p><span style="font-weight: 400;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/27/20170727_hegemnony.jpg"><img height="332" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/27/20170727_hegemnony_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></span></p> <p><strong>The case for normalizing relations between Russia and the U.S. rests on the coming confrontation between the U.S. and China.</strong><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span></p> <p>This confrontation stems from China&rsquo;s refusal to help the U.S. deal decisively with North Korea, which is pushing the U.S. toward a pre-emptive war on the Korean peninsula.</p> <p><strong>Other flashpoints with China include conflicting claims in the South China Sea, currency manipulation, trade subsidies, theft of intellectual property, and cyber-warfare.</strong></p> <p>These conflicts were held in abeyance while <a href="https://dailyreckoning.com/trump-ultimatum-china/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">China was given &ldquo;100 days&rdquo;</a> (from the Mar-a-Lago summit on April 6, 2017 to July 15, 2017) to help with North Korea. Now that the 100 days are up and China has failed to deliver, the gloves are off. The months ahead will witness increasing tension and specific actions by the U.S. aimed at China.</p> <p><strong>To secure the U.S. position in this conflict and as a simple matter of statecraft, the U.S. needs improved relations with Russia as an offset to deteriorating relations with China.</strong></p> <p>Russia can assist the U.S. is numerous ways. First and foremost is Syria. Russia and the U.S., along with indigenous forces from Iraq, Jordan and the UAE, are well down the path of eliminating ISIS as a political entity. (ISIS will remain as a terrorist incubator along with Al Qaeda franchises and their respective sympathizers).</p> <p>A modus vivendi can be reached where Russia and their Ba&rsquo;athist allies, U.S.-backed rebels, Kurds, and Turkey all have separate spheres of influence in Syria. The loser in this scenario is Iran, which has been a leading backer of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad.</p> <p>Russia can also help the United States on the North Korean dossier even though China has proved unable or unwilling to do so. Russia has enormous economic leverage in North Korea. Private intelligence service STRATFOR reported the following on July 11, 2017:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Russia shipped $2.3 million worth of oil products to North Korea between January and April 2017, a 200 percent increase, Yonhap and Korea Times reported July 11. Last year, North Korea reportedly turned to Russia after experiencing difficulty securing oil supplies from China. A North Korean defector suggested Russia supplies North Korea with 200,000 to 300,000 tons of fuel annually via a company in Singapore. North Korea&rsquo;s increased dependence on Russian fuel indicates its anticipation of tougher international sanctions following its recent intercontinental ballistic missile launch on July 4.</p> </blockquote> <p>By stepping into China&rsquo;s shoes as a <a href="https://dailyreckoning.com/u-s-north-korea-one-step-closer-war/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">supplier to North Korea</a>, Russia has increased its leverage over North Korea and therefore has increased its ability to assist the United States. This type of leverage is one of the few paths to a resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue without resorting to war. It is of enormous value to the U.S. and argues in favor of improved U.S.-Russian relations.</p> <p><u><em><strong>The foregoing is an overview of the greatest political struggle in the world today. The nationalists and realists want to improve U.S. relations with Russia. The globalists are horrified at the prospect and want to maintain warm relations with China while isolating Russia.</strong></em></u></p> <h2><u>Hegemony and Geopolitical Struggle</u></h2> <p><strong>The White House has already decided in favor of Russia.</strong></p> <p>The problem is how to execute that plan in the face of withering attacks about phony scandals from the media, Democrats, resistance and globalists.</p> <p><strong>The standard globalist attack on Putin says he is an autocrat at best, a dictator at worst, who murders some political enemies, jails others, and suppresses dissent in Russia. </strong></p> <p>This is all true.</p> <p><strong>The rebuttal is that China is worse. </strong>President Xi is an actual dictator, not a presumed one. He presides over a top-down Communist dictatorship. China slaughtered thousands of innocent protestors in the Tiananmen Square demonstrations in 1989 and has refused to allow any acknowledgement of it ever since.</p> <p>The Chinese dissident, Liu Xiaobo, won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2010 for his efforts to advance the cause of human rights and political freedom in China. He died while in custody on July 13, 2017 after decades in prison and political reeducation camps. Xi&rsquo;s political enemies, such as former Chongqing party chief Bo Xilai, have been arrested and subjected to torture and imprisonment.</p> <p>In short, human rights and respect for political dissent leaves no basis for choosing between Russia and China. Both Putin and Xi are thuggish, with Putin being subject to slightly more pluralistic constraints, while Xi basks in the glow of globalist approval.</p> <p><strong>The choice between them boils down to power politics, not who wins a globalist beauty contest.</strong> Trump is tilting toward <a href="http://www.healthytippingpoint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/MEME-Coffee-Owls_thumb.jpg?x38904" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Russia for good reasons of realpolitik</a>.</p> <p>As evidence for this tilt, following the July 7 meeting between <a href="https://dailyreckoning.com/hidden-subplots-g20-summit/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Trump and Putin at the G20</a> summit in Hamburg, Germany, Trump said:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>People said, &lsquo;Oh they shouldn&rsquo;t get along.&rsquo; Well, who are the people that are saying that? I think we get along very, very well. We are a tremendously powerful nuclear power, and so are they. It doesn&rsquo;t make sense not to have some kind of a relationship.</p> </blockquote> <p><u><strong>The bottom line is that relations with Russia will improve materially while relations with China will deteriorate materially in the months and years ahead.</strong></u></p> <p>This has huge implications for capital markets and your portfolio.</p> <p><strong><em>It is up to the United States to defend its monetary ground. However, the likelihood of that is low because the U.S. does not even perceive the problem it&rsquo;s facing, let alone the solution.</em></strong></p> <p>This evolving state of affairs creates enormous opportunities for investors in the coming months ahead.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="786" height="435" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170727_hegemnony.jpg?1501178341" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/hegemony-three-player-game#comments al-Qaeda Capital Markets China Chongqing party Communist Party of China Crown Prince Party Donald Trump Foreign policy of the Donald Trump administration Forms of government G20 Germany Iran Iraq Napoleon North Korea North Korea North Korean defectors Nuclear Power Politics Politics South China Turkey Vladimir Putin White House White House Xi Jinping Fri, 28 Jul 2017 01:25:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 600623 at http://www.zerohedge.com I'd Nuke China - US Admiral Confirms He'd Launch Missiles If Trump Ordered http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/id-nuke-china-us-admiral-confirms-hed-launch-missiles-if-trump-ordered <p>Admiral Scott Swift, Commander of the US Navy&rsquo;s Pacific Fleet, said he<strong> would obey a hypothetical order to launch a nuclear strike against China</strong> if the president chose to give it. As AP reports, the remarks follow the director of the <strong>CIA&rsquo;s recent assessment that Beijing poses a major threat to the US in the long run</strong>.</p> <p>In a rare interview this week, CIA Director Mike Pompeo asserted that China is more of a long-term threat to US national security than any other world power, including Russia.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;It&#39;s hard to pick between China, Russia and Iran to be honest with you. I guess if I had to pick one with a nose above the others, I&#39;d probably pick China,&rdquo; </strong>Pompeo told the Washington Free Beacon on Wednesday.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;They have a real economy that they have built, unlike Russia that lives and dies on how many barrels of oil they can pluck out of the ground. And Iran that is similarly very single sector derivative and not to the scale of China population-wise,&rdquo; the intelligence chief explained.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>According to Pompeo, <strong>Beijing is willing to become a near-peer opponent to the US.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;I think it&rsquo;s very clear when they think about their place in the world, they measure their success in placing themselves in the world where they want to be vis-à-vis the United States and not as against anyone else,&rdquo; he said.</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-nuclear-idUSKBN1AC1TI">This led someone to ask The US Pacific Fleet chief, who was speaking at an Australian National University security conference on Thursday,</a> <strong>whether he would initiate a nuclear strike against China at President Donald Trump&#39;s orders &#39;next week&#39;?</strong></p> <p><strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/26/20170727_swift.jpg"><img height="387" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/26/20170727_swift_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></strong></p> <p>The admiral bluntly said:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&quot;The answer would be: Yes.&quot;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>Swift, who has led the Pacific Fleet since 2015, explained:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;Every member of the US military has sworn an oath to defend the constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and domestic and to obey the officers and the president of the United States as commander and chief appointed over us.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>He then struck a conciliatory tone, saying:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>&ldquo;This is core to the American democracy and any time you have a military that is moving away from a focus and an allegiance to civilian control, then we really have a significant problem.&rdquo;</strong></span></em></p> </blockquote> <p>Following Admiral Swift&#39;s comments, Pacific Fleet spokesman Captain Charlie Brown explained that he was referring to the principle of civilian control over the armed forces.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&quot;The admiral was not addressing the premise of the question, he was addressing the principle of civilian authority of the military,&quot; </strong>Brown said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&quot;The premise of the question was ridiculous.&quot;</strong></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="703" height="454" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170727_swift.jpg?1501170181" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/id-nuke-china-us-admiral-confirms-hed-launch-missiles-if-trump-ordered#comments Australian National University Central Intelligence Agency China Donald Trump Iran Mike Pompeo national security Politics SWIFT United States Navy US military Fri, 28 Jul 2017 01:00:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 600604 at http://www.zerohedge.com This Chart Might Make You Rethink The Adage "Stocks Always Come Back" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/chart-might-make-you-rethink-adage-stocks-always-come-back <p><a href="https://goldsilver.com/blog/this-chart-might-make-you-rethink-the-adage-stocks-always-come-back/">Authored by Jeff Clark via GoldSilver.com,</a></p> <p>It was a pretty simple inquiry on my part: <a href="https://goldsilver.com/blog/the-usas-day-of-reckoning-hidden-secrets-of-money-episode-7/">Mike Maloney predicts the stock market is facing the mother of all crashes</a> - <em><strong>if he&rsquo;s right, then how long before the average stock investor would get back to even?</strong></em></p> <p>I wanted to know not only for myself, but because I have a daughter just starting in her career. I also have a wife with a 401k and over a decade to retirement. I have a son in college. I handle my retired parents&rsquo; money. And I have other family and friends who follow traditional brokerage advice and have 60% of their portfolios in stocks (or more in some cases).</p> <p>So,<strong> if the stock market crashes,</strong> how long does history say it&rsquo;ll take for their stock holdings to return to pre-crash levels&hellip; <strong><em>months? Years? Or&mdash;gulp&mdash;decades?</em></strong></p> <p>It&rsquo;s an important question, because the answer will tell you how to invest depending on your timeframe. And if the answer ends up being &ldquo;a long time&rdquo;, well, you might consider sidestepping the stock market altogether if you, too, are nervous about its frothy nature.</p> <p><strong><em>At this point the average stock broker will pull out a looong term chart of the S&amp;P and show that over time&mdash;despite numerous crashes and corrections and bear markets&mdash;the stock market ultimately marches higher. History does show this to be true on a nominal basis, further bolstered by the investor who is dollar cost averaging and reinvesting dividends (though these charts always exclude commissions and fees).</em></strong></p> <p>But when I saw one of those charts from my broker many years ago, I did notice one thing: over the past 100 years or so, there were a handful of crashes that not only looked like the Grand Canyon, they took a long time to recover. <strong>&ldquo;What if that happened to my portfolio?&rdquo; was the question I immediately muttered to myself.</strong></p> <p>Years later, after recalling my Dad&rsquo;s grumbling about inflation in the late 1970s, I had a second question: if the Dow did end up taking a protracted time to get back to even, wouldn&rsquo;t inflation erode my real rate of return? If it took a portfolio-killing ten years, for example, I might have earned back that $20,000 I lost, but now the car I&rsquo;d planned to buy with that money cost not $20,000 but $30,000. Or $40,000. Show me all the long-term charts you want but I still can&rsquo;t afford to buy that car.</p> <p>So here was my inquiry:<u><em><strong> in the biggest market crashes, how long has it historically taken the S&amp;P to return not to its pre-crash price, but to the inflation-adjusted level?</strong></em></u> By asking this question, I felt like I&rsquo;d be better equipped to not just handle a major downturn but decide if I should be in the market at all.</p> <p>Here&rsquo;s what I discovered.<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong> In the four biggest stock market crashes since 1900, the inflation-adjusted recovery periods were all measured in decades.</strong></span></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/27/20170727_dip.jpg"><img height="271" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/27/20170727_dip_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p><strong>Inflation rates obviously varied during each period, but even low inflation adds up over time.</strong> So even when the nominal price of the S&amp;P climbed back to the prior peak, it had taken so long that that amount of money would no longer buy as much. Your brokerage statement might show a gain, but in real terms you&rsquo;d still be underwater. It&rsquo;s a sobering realization, one that dawns on most people only when they go to actually spend the money.</p> <p>Here&rsquo;s the breakdown of each recovery period:</p> <ul> <li>Beginning in 1906, it took the S&amp;P 500 index 20 years to get back to its inflation-adjusted, pre-crash level. No wonder; the total amount of inflation during that time period was 74.0%.</li> <li>Deflation was the name of the game in 1929, of course, with inflation readings registering as low as -10.3% during the Great Depression. But the S&amp;P had fallen so far that inflation returned before it could recover&hellip; inflation totaled 48.7% during the 26-year time span, resulting in the S&amp;P not reaching breakeven until 1955.</li> <li>From 1973 to 1987, inflation totaled a whopping 104.0%. High inflation rates combined with the depth of the crash made stocks &ldquo;dead money&rdquo; during that 14-year span.</li> <li>And those &ldquo;low&rdquo; inflation readings we&rsquo;ve had since the new millennium? It totaled 35.2% over the first decade and a half, and led to the S&amp;P taking 14.5 years to regain its full purchasing power. This silent erosion kept unsuspecting investors in the red, on a real basis, until 2015.</li> <li>It&rsquo;s worth pointing out that the Nasdaq still has not recovered from the bursting of the internet bubble. It lost 78% of its value in the crash, and adjusted for inflation is still down 17.6% (as of 6-30-17) from its March 2000 peak! In other words, almost two decades later, tech stocks are not back to the same level of purchasing power, despite the index being higher on a nominal price.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Clearly, the biggest stock market crashes in history have been big enough that inflation played a key role in their recovery.</strong></p> <p>So, if you think the stock market is at risk of a crash&mdash;<a href="https://goldsilver.com/blog/the-shift-is-on-why-institutional-investors-are-buying-gold-again/">and there are plenty of signs pointing to that being the case</a>&mdash;then you may want to consider stepping aside for a time being, and look to start buying again after the crash.</p> <p><strong>Perhaps a more effective solution is to buy the one asset that is not just <a href="https://goldsilver.com/blog/if-the-stock-market-crashes-what-happens-to-gold-and-silver-jeff-clark-senior-precious-metals-analyst/">inversely correlated with stocks</a>&nbsp;(meaning it tends to rise when stocks fall), but is also one of history&rsquo;s best inflation hedges, <a href="https://goldsilver.com/blog/gold-as-a-hedge-against-hyperinflation-does-it-really-work/">even in hyperinflation</a>.</strong></p> <p>If the stock market crashes and inflation kicks in, this asset just might be one of the few offensive weapons left in your portfolio. History says now is a good time to <a href="https://goldsilver.com/buy-online/gold/">put that hedge in place.</a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="825" height="372" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170727_dip.jpg?1501177590" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/chart-might-make-you-rethink-adage-stocks-always-come-back#comments Asset price inflation Business Deflation Dow 30 Economy Great Depression Hyperinflation Hyperinflation Inflation Macroeconomics Monetary inflation Money NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 Purchasing Power Real interest rate Real versus nominal value recovery Retirement S&P S&P 500 Stock market Fri, 28 Jul 2017 00:35:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 600621 at http://www.zerohedge.com "The Lost Generation": Goldman Unemployment Charts Explain Just How Spoiled Millennials Are http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/lost-generation-goldman-unemployment-charts-explain-just-how-spoiled-millennials-are <p>This morning, Goldman's Econ team, led by Jan Hatzius, set out to identify why wage growth has been elusive despite the fact that unemployment rates and other labor utilization measures signal an economy at full employment.&nbsp; <strong>For evidence of labor market 'slack' they decided to take a look at how recessionary college graduates handled the post-recession labor market</strong> as their lack of skills often make them the most vulnerable to a weak job market.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>While the unemployment rate and other labor utilization measures signal an economy at full employment, wage growth has been weaker than expected recently, raising questions about the true degree of slack. </strong>To the extent that some pockets of excess slack remain, the cohort that came of age during the Great Recession would seem a natural place to ?nd it, given the pronounced and long-lasting effects of recessions on young workers.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>In today’s daily, we review the labor market experience of the cohort graduating college or beginning careers during or immediately after the recession. </strong>Unsurprisingly, unemployment rose sharply in this segment from 2007 and 2010. However, since then, jobless rates have improved dramatically on both an absolute and relative basis – particularly over the last year – and the unemployment rate in this cohort is now under the national average. Relative wages have also partially recovered, and broader measures of utilization suggest that minimal excess slack remains in this cohort.</p> </blockquote> <p>While not terribly surprising, they found that the <strong>young folks who graduated in the immediate aftermath of the 'Great Recession' suffered relatively steep wage degradation relative to the overall population.&nbsp;</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Average earnings trends in the household survey show a similar pattern of underperformance and subsequent recovery. As shown in Exhibit 3, <strong>usual weekly earnings in this cohort declined by 6% relative to the population</strong> during and after the recession (on an age-adjusted basis). However, despite a partial recovery, the earnings gap remains: relative wages on this basis have only retraced a third of the post-recession decline (qualitatively consistent with the predictions of the academic literature).</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27 - Goldman 2.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27%20-%20Goldman%202_0.JPG" style="width: 600px; height: 395px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But what is surprising is why those wages haven't recovered meaningfully despite the fact that unemployment rates among the same cohort have fallen precipitously. &nbsp; </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27 - Goldman 3.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27%20-%20Goldman%203_0.JPG" style="width: 600px; height: 298px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And while Goldman didn't point this out, perhaps there are some interesting, if overlooked, clues in the following two charts that lend some insight into the behaviors and attitudes of the current millennial generation as compared to previous generations that came of age during previous recessionary periods.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27 - Goldman.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/07/27/2017.07.27%20-%20Goldman_0.JPG" style="width: 600px; height: 280px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The chart on the left is particularly telling if you <strong>just compare the 1981 recession to 2008.</strong>&nbsp; In the immediate aftermath of the recession, the unemployment gap for young people declined in both instances for the first 4 quarters of the recession.&nbsp; </p> <p>That said, the <strong>experience beyond Q4 is quite different as the 1981 cohort experienced a massive surge in employment while millennials in 2008 simply continued to decline and only bounced slightly off the lows.</strong>&nbsp; Now, one could say this is an unfair comparison because the 2008 recession was deeper and more protracted than the 1981 recession. But, what we find most intriguing is that the <strong>1981 cohort saw a massive surge in employment despite suffering the greatest wage decline of any of the recessionary periods for the past 35 years, and nearly double the experience of the 2008 recession.</strong></p> <p>Translation, <strong>when recession struck in 1981, Baby Boomers and Generation X got off their asses</strong> and took any job at any wage they could find to make ends meet.&nbsp; But, when recession struck in 2008, <strong>millennials simply moved in with mom as opposed to taking a job that didn't fully reward their extensive skillset garnered from 4 years of rigorous anthropology studies at a preppy New England liberal arts college.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="656" height="382" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/College%20Grad.JPG?1501158678" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/lost-generation-goldman-unemployment-charts-explain-just-how-spoiled-millennials-are#comments Business cycle Causes of unemployment in the United States Demography Economy Full employment Jan Hatzius Labor Macroeconomics Millennials New England Population Recession Recession recovery Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment in the United States Fri, 28 Jul 2017 00:10:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 600592 at http://www.zerohedge.com San Diego Wants To Allow Homeless People To Live Inside Empty Football Stadium http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/san-diego-wants-allow-homeless-people-live-inside-empty-football-stadium <p><a href="http://theantimedia.org/san-diego-homeless-people-football-stadium/"><em>Via TheAntiMedia.org,</em></a></p> <p>In an effort to combat a growing homelessness crisis, city officials in San Diego are<a href="http://www.10news.com/news/san-diego-city-leaders-consider-temporary-homeless-shelters" rel="noopener" target="_blank">&nbsp;developing</a>&nbsp;a <strong>plan to temporarily house vagrants at a university practice field, </strong> local media reported Monday.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" mozallowfullscreen="" scrolling="no" src="http://assets.scrippsdigital.com/cms/videoIframe.html?&amp;host=www.10news.com&amp;title=City%20council%20plans%20homeless%20camp%20options&amp;kw=%26kw%3Dsan_diego%26kw%3Dcalifornia%26kw%3D10news%26kw%3Dkgtv%26kw%3Dcity_of_san_diego%26kw%3Dsan_diego_homeless%26kw%3Dqualcomm_stadium_plan_for_homeless%26kw%3Dsan_diego_homeless_in_valley_view_c%26kw%3Dgrantville_homeless_housing%26kw%3Dsan_diego_qualcomm_stadium&amp;vid=59769c37f5bcb110a50cbfc8&amp;purl=/news/san-diego-city-leaders-consider-temporary-homeless-shelters&amp;story=1&amp;ex=1&amp;s=kgtv" webkitallowfullscreen="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>The proposal comes as the city<a href="http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/New-Homeless-Housing-Unit-Unveiled-Today-436280973.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">&nbsp;unveils</a>&nbsp;a new 62-unit apartment complex specifically designed to shelter homeless individuals and families.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&ldquo;I think all things are on the table,&rdquo;</em>&nbsp;</strong>Councilman Chris Cate<a href="https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2017/07/24/homelessness-committee-presents-menu-of-options-to-city-council-to-help-those-in-need/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">&nbsp;said</a>&nbsp;Monday. Cate is a member of the city&rsquo;s Select Committee on Homelessness, and the plan is the brainchild of the committee&rsquo;s chairman, Christopher Ward.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><em>&quot;We hope that as we&rsquo;re able to provide additional housing opportunities, some may be years down the road when those come online, that we&rsquo;ll be able to scale back some of the need for immediate resources &mdash; that&rsquo;s certainly the intent here,&rdquo;</em>&nbsp;</strong>Ward&nbsp;<a href="https://timesofsandiego.com/politics/2017/07/24/homelessness-committee-presents-menu-of-options-to-city-council-to-help-those-in-need/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">said</a>, emphasizing that the plan is a short-term measure as the city looks for more permanent solutions.</p> </blockquote> <p>Homelessness in San Diego has<a href="http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/columnists/dan-mcswain/sd-fi-mcswain-homeless-emergency-measures-20170625-story.html" rel="noopener" target="_blank">&nbsp;surged</a>&nbsp;in recent years. A January tally put the number of transients in the city at over 5,600, up more than 10 percent from last year. The total number has risen more than 40 percent since 2014.</p> <p>The chairman&rsquo;s idea is for the city to <strong>construct temporary housing on the practice field of Qualcomm Stadium, where the San Diego Chargers played until 2016, and the San Diego State Aztecs play. </strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/26/20170727_sd.jpg"><img height="304" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/07/26/20170727_sd_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>Housing would also be built at Golden Hall, a 3,200-seat indoor arena. The committee<a href="http://www.kpbs.org/news/2017/jul/25/san-diego-councilman-chris-ward-proposes-4-point-t/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">&nbsp;agreed</a>&nbsp;to consider Ward&rsquo;s proposal and expects to have a concrete plan outlined by September. <strong>The stadium&rsquo;s fate has been subject of heated public debate following the Chargers&rsquo; decision to move to Los Angeles following the 2016 NFL season, leaving it relatively vacant.</strong></p> <p>Ward contends that a major obstacle for homeless people to overcome in trying to improve their living conditions is that they have no way to secure their property. Ward&nbsp;<a href="http://www.10news.com/news/san-diego-city-leaders-consider-temporary-homeless-shelters" rel="noopener" target="_blank">says</a>&nbsp;temporary housing would provide them with a way to store items while they&rsquo;re away:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;One of the big barriers people have from getting off the streets today is that their stuff is on the streets. </strong>So trying to go interview with the Housing Council or seek health assistance or do a job interview, they don&rsquo;t want to leave their stuff. We don&rsquo;t have enough storage and that&rsquo;s something the city can provide.&rdquo;</em></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>The plan was announced on the same day city officials<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/Affirmed-Celebrates-San-Diego-Affordable-Housing-with-Local-and-Statewide-Electeds-1002199294" rel="noopener" target="_blank">&nbsp;celebrated</a>&nbsp;the grand opening of the Cypress, a six-story permanent housing complex for the homeless that offers private kitchens and bathrooms, communal spaces, and access to social services and substance abuse programs.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="670" height="340" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170727_sd.jpg?1501164564" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-27/san-diego-wants-allow-homeless-people-live-inside-empty-football-stadium#comments California Chris Cate Distribution of wealth Geography of California Homelessness Homelessness in the United States Housing Housing Council Housing First Humanitarian aid National Football League Poverty San Diego San Diego Chargers Select Committee on Homelessness Socioeconomics Thu, 27 Jul 2017 23:45:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 600596 at http://www.zerohedge.com