http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/article/article/%3Ca%20href%3D en Artist's Impression Of Hillary Clinton's Campaign Trail http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/artists-impression-hillary-clintons-campaign-trail <p>Presented with no comment...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_hillary.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_hillary_0.jpg" width="600" height="437" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://townhall.com/political-cartoons/2015/03/04/128360"><em>Source: Townhall</em></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="685" height="499" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150306_hillary.jpg?1425667549" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/artists-impression-hillary-clintons-campaign-trail#comments Sat, 07 Mar 2015 00:30:22 +0000 Tyler Durden 502952 at http://www.zerohedge.com Why "Competitive Devaluation" Doesn't Work http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/why-competitive-devaluation-doesnt-work <p><a href="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/03/06/dismal-january-rolls-on-for-now-total-global-trade/"><em>Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners</em></a>,</p> <p><strong>More bad news for the rest of the world, or at least the world&rsquo;s economists, that has been anticipating the US economy as a means by which to expel negative economic forces. </strong>The idea of decoupling is not just something that suggests the US economy is moving contrary to all the rest, but also the sole source of hope for anything but a dramatic decline once again. Outside of the Establishment Survey and the unemployment rate, there has been nothing to suggest that any such divergence has existed. The most pertinent data, especially trade data, has been unambiguous in actually pegging the world&rsquo;s declining fortunes to the lack of actual growth of the US economy.</p> <p>While that was &ldquo;good&rdquo; enough to describe the rut that had befallen in 2012, most recent months, especially the dismal nature of January&rsquo;s updates across a broad cross-section, increasingly suggest an end to even that nearly three-year furrow &ndash; but not in the direction that payrolls anticipate.</p> <p><strong>The latest trade data from the Census Bureau surpasses the ugliness we have come to expect of the elongated cycle.</strong> Both imports and exports fell year-over-year in January, as weakness, contraction even, is now universal in terms of US demand for foreign goods and foreign demand for US goods. Trade has ground to a startling halt.</p> <p>On the export side, the drop was <em>by far</em> the worst since 2009. That may suggest another reason for the Chicago PMI&rsquo;s <a href="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/2015/02/27/chicago-really-really-didnt-cooperate/" target="_blank">dramatic collapse of its own</a>, which would be very concerning since it would mean that far more than just the energy sector is contracting under the weight of lack of &ldquo;demand.&rdquo;</p> <p><a href="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Exports.jpg"><img alt="ABOOK March 2015 US Exports" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28811" height="341" src="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Exports.jpg" width="577" /></a></p> <p><strong>This steep (and steepening) decline began somewhere around August, which completely fits within the timeframe of the &ldquo;dollar&rdquo; and the view of the global economy provided by related &ldquo;dollar&rdquo; liquidity and commodity prices, especially oil.</strong> In terms of US GDP, this is a negative factor as exports fell much faster than imports.</p> <p>For the rest of the world, they care little about US GDP as the decline in imports means less business overall (doesn&rsquo;t matter the &ldquo;dollar&rdquo; exchange rate). Our biggest trade partners, especially China, are already under economic pressure from the lack of any true recovery after the Great Recession, but are now coping with the potential for even worse trade levels.</p> <p><a href="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Imports.jpg"><img alt="ABOOK March 2015 US Imports" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28815" height="341" src="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Imports.jpg" width="577" /></a></p> <p><strong>Using a closed system approach, as most economists do, you can actually expect that exports and imports would diverge and the US could &ldquo;decouple&rdquo; and lead a global resurgence. Realistically that was never an option</strong> as the relation of global trade, linked by the &ldquo;dollar&rdquo;, has continually suggested since 2012 an eventual dislocation that applies universally. The slowdown in China is directly related to the slowing levels of US &ldquo;demand&rdquo;, which in turn is transmitted to other nations that would import US goods. The system is wholly contained of all trade, and thus global trade itself is perhaps the key barometer of the global economy.</p> <p><a href="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Imports-China.jpg"><img alt="ABOOK March 2015 US Imports China" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28814" height="341" src="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Imports-China.jpg" width="577" /></a><a href="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Imports-China-Recent.jpg"><img alt="ABOOK March 2015 US Imports China Recent" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28813" height="341" src="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Imports-China-Recent.jpg" width="577" /></a></p> <p><u><strong>That offers one reason why &ldquo;competitive devaluation&rdquo; doesn&rsquo;t actually work, as it is not a zero sum game (one country gaining at the expense of another) but rather currency &ldquo;wars&rdquo; subtract from the whole altogether (both countries lose). The entire point of currency destabilization is exactly that, and business transpires less and less under more extreme versions of instability &ndash; intentional or not.</strong></u></p> <p><a href="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Imports-Japan.jpg"><img alt="ABOOK March 2015 US Imports Japan" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-28812" height="341" src="http://www.alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/ABOOK-March-2015-US-Imports-Japan.jpg" width="577" /></a></p> <p><u><strong>No matter how you want to view all this, January was perhaps the worst month for US trade since the Great Recession.</strong></u> For domestic production, which will matter at some point for even the payroll reports, the serious decline in exports is a most distressing development. For the rest of the world, as if it weren&rsquo;t clear enough already, the US is not coming to save the day &ndash; US consumers have never fully rebounded and are now growing even more cautious (savings rate) or have even less to spend (&ldquo;disinflation&rdquo; or not).</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="301" height="223" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150306_lose.jpg?1425679521" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/why-competitive-devaluation-doesnt-work#comments Census Bureau Chicago PMI China Global Economy Recession recovery Savings Rate Unemployment Fri, 06 Mar 2015 23:55:41 +0000 Tyler Durden 502956 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Nasdaq Has Become The Biggest Circle-Jerk In History http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/nasdaq-has-become-biggest-circle-jerk-history <p>In the aftermath of Marc Cuban's oped from two days ago, that the current, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-04/mark-cuban-warns-bubble-far-worse-tech-bubble-2000">second tech bubble </a>is worse than the first dot com bubble of 2000, there has been much anguish by those deeply invested (on margin) in (bio)tech stocks, to demonstrate that the Nasdaq at 5000, or Biotechs trading at 50x or 5000xP/E, is perfectly normal and the global central banks' $13 trillion in liquidity has nothing to do with it. Of course, the answer who is right and wrong on this issue will not be revealed until after the current bubble pops. </p> <p>Luckily, there are some very clear clues.</p> <p>As Sundial Capital's Jason Goepfert notes, the best way to figure out whether tech stocks are overvalued is to look what the insiders are doing: those public tech company directors and senior executives who know their companies better than anyone, and who may keep silent as the Nasdaq crosses 5000, but are quite vocal with their shares. </p> <p>According to <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tech-insiders-arent-buying-what-they-are-shoveling-2015-03-06?dist=countdown">MarketWatch</a>, Goepfert said <strong>insider selling by tech execs is now at the heaviest pace seen in at least eight years. </strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/03/MW-DH133_Inside_20150306121613_MG.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/03/MW-DH133_Inside_20150306121613_MG_0.jpg" width="550" height="385" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Then again, we have seen record insider selling before: surely that can't be the punchline.</p> <p> It isn't. According to Goepfert, as well as to <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-28/here-reason-why-stocks-just-had-their-best-month-october-2011">Zero Hedge which first revealed </a>that companies had announced a record amount of stock buybacks in February, the punchline is that <em>these tech insiders are selling a record amount of personal stock</em>... <strong>to the very companies they control!</strong> </p> <p>Per Sundial, technology companies have been buying back a record amount of their own shares. And who is selling: why the management teams and directors <strong>that make the decision whether to allow the company to buyback stock in the open market</strong>.</p> <p>“It seems odd that insiders would be selling their stock at the very time they’re directing their company to buy back that very same stock,” Goepfert said, adding that "it’s a better sign for stocks when insiders are buying, or at least not selling heavily,” Goepfert said. “When they do sell <em>en masse</em>, it’s a yellow flag.”</p> <p>We would be less politically correct: when the same management teams that <em>sell </em>record amounts of their own company stock to the companies they control - companies which are now <em>buying back </em>record amounts of stock, this is not only the worst possible conflict of interest, it means, for lack of a better word, that the Nasdaq, bubble or not, <strong>has become the biggest circle jerk in history! </strong></p> <p>A circle-jerk which will continue until the Nasdaq itself, with its trademark zero cashflows, ends up as loaded up with debt as any mature, late cycle company. Because by now it is clear to everyone that if and when rates do rise, and all that all time high corporate, financial, household and sovereign debt has to be services, nobody is getting out alive.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="498" height="323" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/IMG_4330.JPG?1425684366" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/nasdaq-has-become-biggest-circle-jerk-history#comments Insider Selling NASDAQ Sovereign Debt Fri, 06 Mar 2015 23:26:20 +0000 Tyler Durden 502958 at http://www.zerohedge.com E&P Writedowns Loom As Reserves Overvalued By 60% http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/ep-writedowns-loom-reserves-overvalued-60 <p>In principle, investors should be able to look to SEC filings for reliable information on publicly traded companies. As Bloomberg reports however, <strong>the commission’s rules on how drillers are required to value their reserves is effectively forcing companies to overstate the value of their O&amp;G businesses by nearly two-thirds</strong>.&nbsp;</p> <p>Via Bloomberg:&nbsp;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><em>The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requires drillers to calculate the value of their oil reserves every year using average prices from the first trading days in each of the previous 12 months. Because oil didn’t start its freefall to about $45 till after the OPEC meeting in late November, companies in their latest regulatory filings used $95 a barrel to figure out how much oil they could profitably produce and what it’s worth. <strong>Of the 12 days that went into the fourth-quarter average, crude was above $90 a barrel on 10 of them.</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>Continental Resources (who reminded Bloomberg that it’s “just following the rules like everyone else”), reported the following data on proved reserves early last month:&nbsp;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><em>PDP reserves increased 21% from year-end 2013 to 490 MMBoe at December 31, 2014. The Company had 2,994 gross (1,565 net) proved undeveloped (PUD) locations at year-end 2014. The Bakken accounted for 82% of PUD locations at year-end. Continental's year-end 2014 proved reserves had a net present value discounted at 10% (PV-10) of <strong>$22.8 billion</strong>, a 13% increase over PV-10 of $20.2 billion for year-end 2013 proved reserves.</em></p> </blockquote> <p>As it turns out, <strong>the PV of the company’s proved reserves using current depressed oil prices is nearly $9 billion less</strong>, as outlined in the company’s 10-K:&nbsp;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><em>Commodity prices have decreased significantly in recent months. Holding all other factors constant, if commodity prices used in our year-end reserve estimates were decreased by $40.00 per Bbl for crude oil and $1.00 per Mcf for natural gas, thereby <strong>approximating the pricing environment existing in February 2015, our PV-10 at December 31, 2014 could decrease by approximately $13.8 billion, or 61%.</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p><strong><span style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">For its annual report, Continental used a price of $94.99/Bbl to estimate its proved reserves and noted that for every $10 decrease in the price of crude, PV-10 drops by a whopping $3.2 billion.&nbsp;</span></strong></p> <p>Of course this backward looking accounting only compounds the problem investors face when attempting to value shale companies. As we’ve noted previously, the industry runs what is effectively a <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/fracking-enters-bear-market-question-emerges-shale-boom-built-sea-lies">two-tiered bookkeeping system</a> whereby companies can, with impunity, inflate the value of their reserves in order to lure investors while reporting a far lower figure to the SEC.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/03/ShaleBoom.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/03/ShaleBoom_0.jpg" width="587" height="399" /></a></p> <p>* &nbsp;* &nbsp;*&nbsp;</p> <p>The key takeaways here are: 1) <strong>when Q1 results start to roll in for E&amp;P companies, we should expect to see massive writedowns across the board as industry balance sheets will no longer benefit from calculating PV-10 based on prices the market hasn’t seen in months</strong>, and 2) investors face a virtually insurmountable task when it comes to evaluating E&amp;P companies as management is allowed to make up its own figures in investor presentations while the SEC mandates the use of months’ old prices for the purposes of calculating future cash flow.&nbsp;Fortunately, the SEC is on top of it.</p> <p><span style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">Via Bloomberg:&nbsp;</span></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><em><span style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">There are no current plans to revisit or modify SEC reporting rules, Erin Stattel, an SEC spokeswoman, said in an e-mail. She declined to comment further.</span></em></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="605" height="346" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/Oil.jpg?1425659406" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/ep-writedowns-loom-reserves-overvalued-60#comments Crude Crude Oil Natural Gas OPEC Securities and Exchange Commission Fri, 06 Mar 2015 22:47:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 502935 at http://www.zerohedge.com Markets Are Now Beyond The Control Of The Fed http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/markets-are-now-beyond-control-fed <p><em>Via Scotiabank&#39;s Guy Haselmann,</em></p> <p><em><u><strong>The Fed has purposefully tried to engineer a later lift-off beyond what it normally should have been&nbsp; -- due to the extent of the crisis.&nbsp; However, they risk losing credibility as the market is questioning just how behind the curve they are. A growing group of investors is worried that the Fed is blind to the aggregating risks to financial instability.&nbsp; </strong></u></em><br />&nbsp;<br /><strong>The interesting contradiction is that the market believes the Fed should have tightened already, yet interest rate futures have priced &ldquo;lift-off&rdquo; probabilities beyond September.&nbsp;</strong> This&nbsp; incongruity in interest rate futures stems from the market&rsquo;s perception that the majority of&nbsp; FOMC members are Doves who rely too much on models and will thus stay accommodative.&nbsp; The ZLB simply does not afford the Fed the option of rising too soon or they believe they will undo much of the progress that they made (and would have no bullets to fix that mistake).<br />&nbsp;<br /><strong>Unfortunately, Fed models are incapable of measuring extent and costs of financial instability &ndash; something Mester admitted and emphasized last week.&nbsp;</strong><br />&nbsp;<br />The FOMC likely recognizes that there will be a &lsquo;market reaction&rsquo; when rate &ldquo;lift-off&rdquo; finally arrives, but there are many (including myself) who believe the Fed is under-estimating the degree of that &lsquo;market reaction&rsquo;. <strong>Fed worries are suppressed, because they believe they have &ldquo;macro-prudential&rdquo; tools</strong>:&nbsp;&nbsp; a talking point that few in the market have understanding what it really means.&nbsp; Regardless, those tools do not prevent market disruptions, but merely help to pick up the pieces once the market&rsquo;s reaction gets bad enough.&nbsp;<br /><strong>&nbsp;<br />The front end of the bond curve needs to price in a Fed that likely to hike in June.&nbsp;&nbsp; This is occurring (after today&rsquo; employment report) and thus shrinking the divergence between the Fed warning about June &ldquo;lift-off&rdquo; and the markets skepticism.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</strong><br />&nbsp;<br />The curve is steepening today as long maturities are battling between two cross winds (explained in a moment).&nbsp; Yet,<strong> the upward pressure on long yields could be short lived to this week and early next (supply), while the downward pressure on yields may be a slower moving and on-going theme.</strong><br />&nbsp;<br /><strong><u>Yields are being pressured higher</u> by a historically large corporate issuance calendar (above $60 billion this week alone) and the perception that the Fed is behind the curve -- particularly after the ECB&rsquo;s action and numerous other global central bank easing moves in 2015.</strong><br />&nbsp;<br /><strong><u>On the other hand, yields are being kept lower </u>than they would otherwise be, due to low global bond yields and an appreciating US dollar trend which makes Treasuries very attractive to foreigners on a relative basis.</strong>&nbsp; In addition, yields are&nbsp; low due to hoarding of long-date securities by central banks which is creating a shortage of high-quality highly-rated sovereign bonds.&nbsp; Regulatory rules have also required banks to hold more of them.&nbsp;&nbsp; <strong>Therefore, it is difficult to price the value of long-dated Treasuries when they have qualities of a commodity whose demand is arguably greater than the supply.</strong><br />&nbsp;<br /><strong>I still like the flattener and believe the market is providing an opportunity to get into the trade at better levels (than recent levels).</strong>&nbsp; I like the flattener in Europe (even more than in US).&nbsp; I believe several 2&rsquo;s 10&rsquo;s curves in the EU are likely to go to ZERO.&nbsp; The CB&rsquo;s implementing ECB QE will want to buy positive yielding securities.&nbsp; Even though the cap is -0.20%, they are unlikely to buy negative securities.&nbsp; As the shortage of willing sellers gets scarcer, I believe rates will attempt to grind toward 0%.&nbsp; German 2&rsquo;s yield -0.21% (below the cap), while 10&rsquo;s yield 0.0.34%.&nbsp; <strong>I can envision this curve at zero even as economic data in Europe is better than expectations.&nbsp; A flattening curve in Europe would place flattening pressure on the US curve as well.</strong></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *<br />&nbsp;<br /><u><strong>On a separate note there is another factor that may arise going forward.</strong></u>&nbsp;&nbsp; During the last several years of uber-accommodation by the Fed, both stock and bond prices rose.&nbsp;&nbsp; It would not be surprising if both fell in price as the Fed proceeds with a June &ldquo;lift-off&rdquo;.&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong><u> However, stocks might be the worse of the two performers.&nbsp;</u></strong>&nbsp; I expect rising market turbulent and expect a terminal fed funds rate of only 0.75%-1.00% into mid-2016.&nbsp;&nbsp; The Feds balance sheet has $400 billion of maturities to deal with in early 2016 which the market place is not paying enough attention to.&nbsp; I believe the Fed will want to allow as much of this as possible to roll off (i.e. the balance sheet will shrink).&nbsp; <strong><u>The decline in the Feds balance sheet is a defacto tightening.</u></strong>&nbsp;&nbsp; The Fed may be reluctant to do both, i.e. hike, while also allowing the balance sheet to shrink too quickly.&nbsp;&nbsp; They could hike and do some re-investment, but it may be strange re-invest a large portion at the same time that they are hiking.&nbsp; I believe market turmoil and balance sheet maturities will cause a period of (hike) pauses in 2016.&nbsp; If this is true, Treasury market yields may not rise as high as some pundits are warning.<br />&nbsp;<br /><u><strong>In a sense, markets are now beyond the control of the Fed.&nbsp; </strong></u>They were able to change investor behavior for a few years, but the herd mentality is now becoming dislodged: &ldquo;lift-off&rdquo; could possibly cause a steep reversal.&nbsp;&nbsp; I expect <strong>SPX to dip below 2000 by the time of the March 18th Fed Meeting</strong>.&nbsp; A &lsquo;market reaction&rsquo; to pivoting policy is likely expected by the Fed, but SPX at 2000 would not enough to change its actions.&nbsp;&nbsp; How investors and asset allocators behave is the question.<br />&nbsp;<br /><u><strong>Moreover, for stocks, rising bond yields will end the conversation about multiple expansion in US equities.</strong></u>&nbsp; Higher yields will also slow share buybacks, as corporate issuance to fund buybacks will dissipate.&nbsp; The shift in rate hike expectations is also accelerating the bid in the USD which will hit corporate earnings.&nbsp; Therefore,&nbsp; while equity prices and short maturity bonds prices could both fall, if the decline in equities falls too far too fast, then there would likely be flows into Treasuries until equities stabilize.<br />&nbsp;<br /><u><strong>I expect the Fed to tighten in June and the Treasury curve to flatten.&nbsp;</strong></u> Carry and rolldown, relative yield attractiveness, the effects of ECB QE and the various other factors outline above and in prior notes&nbsp; will provide underlying support for Treasury prices.&nbsp;&nbsp; Should equities tumble too far too fast, all Treasuries yields across the curve would fall (and maybe materially) from today&rsquo;s current prices.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="347" height="294" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150306_guyy.jpg?1425677288" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/markets-are-now-beyond-control-fed#comments Across the Curve Bond Central Banks Flattener Herd Mentality Fri, 06 Mar 2015 22:45:39 +0000 Tyler Durden 502951 at http://www.zerohedge.com Ukraine, Neocons And Neonazis http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/ukraine-neocons-and-neonazis <p><a href="http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2015/03/ukraine-neocons-and-neonazis/"><em>Submitted by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog</em></a>,</p> <p>See, by now you would think that anyone who reads that all 31 US banks that were tested have passed the Fed stress test, knows<strong> this says absolutely nothing about the banks, but all the more about the test. </strong>You would think. But the media try &ndash; and succeed &ndash; to cram it down the public&rsquo;s throat as a success story anyway.</p> <p><strong>There&rsquo;s simply a very strong feeling, if not conviction, in the western media, that they&rsquo;ve won the propaganda battle. </strong>They have no adversary other than the blogosphere, and since they reach a thousand times more people, who are to a (wo)man more complacent and gullible than any of your typical interwebs readers, Bob&rsquo;s their uncle.</p> <p>But come on guys, are we really going to let this happen without raising our voices or even batting as much as one of our eyes? <strong>We&rsquo;re drowning in nonsense here, and we&rsquo;re prepared to just die without even trying to swim?</strong></p> <p>Look, I find real fun in reading that <strong>the UK House of Lords issues a report that claims 150,000 jobs will be created by 2050 in the &lsquo;drone industry&rsquo;, and at the same time clamors for a &lsquo;personal drone registry&rsquo;. </strong>I mean, these guys are way too old to even know how to spell &lsquo;drone&rsquo;. But that&rsquo;s just mindless &lsquo;journalism&rsquo;, and to a point innocent.</p> <p>What is not is the two portraits of US girl power in Ukraine from the Guardian and Bloomberg that appeared over the past two days. That&rsquo;s not innocent, that&rsquo;s vile and bastardly lies.<strong> Victoria Nuland and Natalie Jaresko should not be praised by the western media, they should be taken apart bone by bone, because the roles they play are far too shady to stand up to our alleged democratic principles.</strong></p> <p>Bloomberg is, well, Bloomberg, but why the Guardian gets involved in this sort of apologetic feel-good &lsquo;reporting&rsquo; is beyond me. Other than: how much does it pay?! I mean, who needs a brain when you have a keyboard? Nuland and her hubby Robert Kagan &ndash; and don&rsquo;t you even try and make me picture them in bed together plotting fresh invasions &ndash; are the flashing neon signs for everything neocon in America today.</p> <p>She has &ndash; more or less voluntarily &ndash; admitted to staging the year-old Kiev coup and installing US puppet Yatsenyuk as Ukraine PM, as well as pushing $5 billion in US taxpayer funds to various Ukraine &lsquo;charities&rsquo; to make it happen.</p> <p><strong>And then the Guardian has the gall to present her as your average American girl next door?</strong> Nuland creates wars, and misery, and bloodshed, and she does so fully convinced she&rsquo;s serving some deity&rsquo;s purpose. She should have long since been removed from any and all offices, but she&rsquo;s still in place, which paints a damning enough picture of US politics all by itself.</p> <p>Yeah, sure, let&rsquo;s make Victoria look normal, right, Guardian?</p> <p style="margin-left: 20px;"><a href="http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/mar/04/victoria-nuland-russia-actions-ukraine-invasion" target="new"><span style="font-size:13px;color: #FF2222;font-weight:bold"> Victoria Nuland: Russia&rsquo;s Actions In Ukraine Conflict An &lsquo;Invasion&rsquo; </span> </a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><i>Assistant secretary of state Victoria Nuland has admitted the US considers Russia&rsquo;s actions in Ukraine &ldquo;an invasion&rdquo;, in what may be the first time a senior American official has used the term to describe a conflict that has killed more than 6,000 people. Speaking before the House committee on foreign affairs, Nuland was asked by representative Brian Higgins about Russia&rsquo;s support of rebels in eastern Ukraine, through weapons, heavy armor, money and soldiers: &ldquo;In practical terms does that constitute an invasion?&rdquo; </i></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><i>Nuland at first replied that &ldquo;we have made clear that Russia is responsible for fielding this war,&rdquo; until pressed by Higgins to answer &ldquo;yes or no&rdquo; whether it constitutes an invasion. &ldquo;We have used that word in the past, yes,&rdquo; Nuland said, apparently marking the first time a senior official has allowed the term in reference to Russia&rsquo;s interference in eastern Ukraine, and not simply its continued occupation of the Crimean peninsula. </i></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><i>Obama administration officials across departments have strenuously avoided calling the conflict an invasion for months, instead performing verbal contortions to describe an &ldquo;incursion&rdquo;, &ldquo;violation of territorial sovereignty&rdquo; and an &ldquo;escalation of aggression&rdquo;. In November Vice-President Joe Biden, who has acted as one of Obama&rsquo;s primary liaisons with the Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, rapidly corrected himself after breaking from the White House&rsquo;s careful language on CNN, saying &ldquo;When the Russians invaded &ndash; crossed the border &ndash; into Ukraine, it was, &lsquo;My god. It&rsquo;s over.&rsquo;&rdquo;</i></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>But that&rsquo;s nothing compared to today&rsquo;s Bloomberg portrait of Natalie Jaresko, the US stooge installed late last year to run Ukraine&rsquo;s economy into the ground as finance minister. </strong>This is something else altogether. The first thing that comes to mind is: &lsquo;have you no shame?&rsquo;, but then you realize it&rsquo;s Bloomberg. The subtitle is: Why Natalie Jaresko Is As Important As The Country&rsquo;s Generals. I kid you not. In days of old, the CIA would have had to look through the Yellow Pages, but this time around I&rsquo;m pretty sure they used Facebook to find Americans with Ukie blood ties. They then pumped her full of dollars, 100s of millions of them, and then she was ready to go. Mind you, she was picked way ahead of the regime change a year ago. The whole thing was planned well in advance. 10 years or so in advance.</p> <p>C&rsquo;mon, the first paragraph alone should be profoundly sickening to any functioning neuron:</p> <p style="margin-left: 20px;"><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-03-05/putin-s-american-foe-in-ukraine-finance-minister-natalie-jaresko" target="new"><span style="font-size:13px;color: #FF2222;font-weight:bold"> The American Woman Who Stands Between Putin and Ukraine </span> </a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><i>Ukraine is a nation at war, which is why Natalie Jaresko, the minister of finance, has traveled 20 miles from Kiev to the town of Irpin, a settlement of 40,000 on the edge of a pine forest. She&rsquo;s here to visit a rearguard army hospital and to console convalescing veterans of recent battles against Russian forces and their proxies in the Ukrainian east. &ldquo;Where did you serve?&rdquo; she asks, moving slowly from room to room. &ldquo;How were you wounded?&rdquo; She may be from Chicago&rsquo;s West Side, but she speaks Ukrainian fluently, and if anyone notices her American accent, no one seems to care. Jaresko tells the soldiers they&rsquo;re heroes, the country&rsquo;s national accountant handling a job for generals. The crisis has thrust people into unlikely roles.</i></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><i>Three months ago, Jaresko, 49, left the private equity firm that she co-founded in Ukraine in 2006 to join the government of Petro Poroshenko. At the time, Jaresko didn&rsquo;t even have Ukrainian citizenship. Now, as the country&rsquo;s top economic official, she&rsquo;s Ukraine&rsquo;s liaison to the World Bank, the IMF, and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Tax reform is hers. So is the treasury.</i></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>The country&rsquo;s bankrupt. </strong>So much so that no amount of IMF funding can change that. Besides, a substantial amount of whatever funding will be made available, will need to go to what is still called an army, lest Kiev loses out completely against the rebels it has tried to annihilate for a year now. But it can get worse, just read this bit:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><i>[..].. whether Ukraine succeeds as an independent democratic nation arguably depends as much on the efforts of Jaresko and her colleagues as it does on the military battles. Together they must rebuild a shattered economy and restore international confidence in Ukraine while confronting the corruption and cronyism that have haunted the country since the fall of communism. And they must somehow do so as state-owned banks teeter on the brink of collapse, the national treasury counts its last foreign notes, and inflation is at 28% and rising. The longer the war carries on and reforms are delayed, the more hostile Ukrainians will become to their government and its Western supporters, leaving the country even more vulnerable to Vladimir Putin.</i></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>Uh-uh. The people will turn against the US and EU, but they don&rsquo;t really know what&rsquo;s good for them do they?</strong> Even if they hate the heebees out of us, we must still protect them from Vlad the Impaler. Sorry, it&rsquo;s for your own good&hellip;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><i>Jaresko, 5 feet 6 inches tall, wears her dark hair at chin length. As she continues through the Irpin hospital, she&rsquo;s solemn, respectful. More soldiers receive her, cramped two and three to closetlike rooms, jammed into beds sized for children. They discuss their lack of firepower in the field: Why don&rsquo;t we have modern weapons? How does the enemy know where we are all the time? Jaresko listens. She knows better than any general that Ukraine doesn&rsquo;t have the funds to better arm itself. She asks the soldiers what they plan to do once they&rsquo;ve recovered. <b>To a man, they say they&rsquo;ll return to the front lines. </b> </i></p> </blockquote> <p>Ex-f##king-cuse me, but since I know anywhere between half a million to over a full million men have fled the country just to escape serving in the Kiev army, I&rsquo;m wondering what lengths Bloomberg&rsquo;s Brett Forrest and his new-found Mother Teresa went through to find a hospital where defeated soldiers, to a man no less, claimed they&rsquo;d go back if only they could.<strong> Who believes this shit? And who needs it to begin with?</strong></p> <p>Yada yada, Jaresko life story, Ellis Island, Chicago, yada yada, and then this:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><i>In the mid-1990s, Ukraine endured hyperinflation of 10,000%. A few years later came the shock waves of Russia&rsquo;s financial crisis. The Ukrainian economy showed its first signs of growth only in 2000, after almost a decade of decline. Then, in 2004, came the Orange Revolution. While the country entered a new period of uncertainty, international institutional investors began to arrive. Two years later, Jaresko and three partners opened investment management firm Horizon Capital. It managed the Western NIS Enterprise Fund and eventually raised two more. When she left last December, it had roughly $600 million of Ukrainian investments under management.</i></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>I don&rsquo;t think that&rsquo;s Ukrainian investments, I&rsquo;m thinking it&rsquo;s western investments in Ukraine.</strong> Jaresko was set up very well, financially. From the $5 billion VIctoria Nuland admitted the US had spent to change the regime. She&rsquo;s a well paid stooge. You do have to wonder what&rsquo;s left of Jaresko&rsquo;s riches now that Kiev&rsquo;s as broke as a wino in the dead of winter.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><i>Last year&rsquo;s regime change, Jaresko says, represented a real turning point&mdash;a chance to finally end kleptocratic rule. &ldquo;Anyone close to Ukraine understood that this was an incredible moment to take Ukraine forward in a way that it hadn&rsquo;t gone quickly enough over the past 22 years,&rdquo; she says. &ldquo;That there had been a radical change in civil society, and that civil society&rsquo;s expectations could no longer be put on the back burner by anyone.&rdquo;</i></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>&lsquo;Forward&rsquo; in this case apparently means into war and bankruptcy, that&rsquo;s all that&rsquo;s been accomplished. </strong>Yeah, sure, Nuland&rsquo;s neocons understood that <i>&lsquo;this was an incredible moment to take Ukraine forward in a way that it hadn&rsquo;t gone quickly enough over the past 22 years..&rsquo;</i> Just read that sentence again knowing it comes from that woman, and knowing she&rsquo;s helped bring down the entire nation. It gives it a whole other meaning.</p> <p><strong>Yada yada, headhunting firm happenstanced upon an American CEO in Kiev (there&rsquo;s so many of them it&rsquo;s hard to keep track ;-)).</strong> <i>&ldquo;They played hard on my patriotism..&rdquo; &ldquo;I sometimes wonder what my father would think..&rdquo;</i> Please hand me a bucket!</p> <p>Then some to and fro about how the state is too weak to fight Russia &ndash; which they&rsquo;re not, they&rsquo;re fighting their own citizens -, and paragraphs of financial blubber and outright lies, culminating in:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><i>&hellip;economics minister Abromavicius saying his office projects a 5.5% reduction in the economy this year. That doesn&rsquo;t take into account Putin&rsquo;s future actions in the east. We work under the assumption that there will be peace very soon, he says. This conflict is misguided. The Russian leadership is misguided about Ukraine in general. They just don&rsquo;t understand Ukraine. This country wants to be left alone. This country wants to make its own decisions. </i></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>&lsquo;This country wants to make its own decisions?&rsquo; Well, you should have made sure you didn&rsquo;t go broke then. Because from here on in, you&rsquo;ll never again make any decision you can call your own, and that includes choosing the color of toilet paper in your government offices.</strong> The US will do that for you. That&rsquo;s why Jaresko is where she is. Ukraine had a lot more freedom before Maidan.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><i>As the young government&rsquo;s leaders and supporters tirelessly point out, the war with Russia has so far been contained to less than 10% of Ukraine&rsquo;s territory. </i></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>First, there is no war with Russia, only with Ukrainian citizens.</strong> And if it&rsquo;s less than 10% of the territory, that&rsquo;s only because the rebels have no claim on anything but their own land. They don&rsquo;t want Kiev, they just want Kiev to leave them alone and stop killing their women and children. But if it won&rsquo;t, the rebels will take more territory, just so Kiev can&rsquo;t use it to attack them anymore.</p> <p><strong>But it must be convenient to be able to hang an entire country&rsquo;s demise on one person, no matter what happens.</strong> I just read that US House Speaker Boehner sent a letter to Obama claiming that Russia&rsquo;s actions in Ukraine are a &lsquo;grotesque violation of international law&rsquo;. If that is so, what does that say about America&rsquo;s actions in Ukraine?</p> <p><strong>The US must withdraw Nuland and Jaresko from their respective positions starting yesterday morning. </strong>But they won&rsquo;t, they have achieved exactly what they were aiming for: a nation so shattered it&rsquo;s dependent on US and IMF money just to survive, just to pay for the ink needed to draw its borders on a map.</p> <p>From here on, it&rsquo;s just a matter of waiting for Putin to get so sick of all this he decides he can&rsquo;t let Kiev go down any further, lest all that&rsquo;s left is neonazis and neocons, and they start aiming their US and/or UAE supplied &lsquo;lethal defensive&rsquo; weapons eastward. And then they&rsquo;ll get what they&rsquo;ve wanted all along, Yatsenyuk and Poroshenko and Nuland and Jaresko: They&rsquo;ll get War. But it won&rsquo;t come the way they envisioned it. Putin&rsquo;s way too smart for that.</p> <p><strong>Anyway, what a shameless depiction of Ukraine we get here. It&rsquo;s all-out propaganda, no prisoners taken. I&rsquo;m getting tired of getting angry about it, but someone has to.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="489" height="236" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150306_ukr.jpg?1425656383" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/ukraine-neocons-and-neonazis#comments Corruption Cronyism Hyperinflation Institutional Investors Joe Biden Neocons Obama Administration Private Equity Stress Test Ukraine Vladimir Putin White House World Bank Yellow Pages Fri, 06 Mar 2015 22:30:36 +0000 Tyler Durden 502933 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Recovery Is Complete: America Adds Most Waiters And Bartenders Since 2013 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/recovery-complete-america-adds-most-waiters-and-bartenders-2013 <p>The last time the US economy was said to be about to blast off into an "above consensus" growth phase, and when everyone predicted a recovery was "just around the corner" sending the 10 Year to 3%, was the second half of 2013, right as the Fed was about to begin tapering QE3 (not because things were getting better but because it was about to run out of bonds to monetize as the TBAC warned the same summer). It was back then, and specifically August 2013, that said economy added a whopping 72 thousand waiters and bartenders according to the BLS. </p> <p>We are happy to report that in February, the US economy added a recovery-validating 58,700 waiters and bartenders, <strong>the highest monthly increase in this minimum wage category in 18 months.</strong></p> <p>Surely the recovery is not only upon us, but it is time for the Fed to hike rates, because as the WSJ praised over the weekend, the "<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-28/wsj-praises-waiter-bartender-recovery-even-74-americans-believe-they-will-work-until">Waiter and bartender recovery</a>" has truly arrived. Again.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/03/bartenders%20and%20waiters_1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/03/bartenders%20and%20waiters_1_0.jpg" width="600" height="395" /></a></p> <p><em>Source: <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES7072200001">All Employees: Leisure and Hospitality: Food Services and Drinking Places</a></em><a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES7072200001"></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="786" height="518" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/bartenders%20and%20waiters.jpg?1425680411" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/recovery-complete-america-adds-most-waiters-and-bartenders-2013#comments BLS recovery Fri, 06 Mar 2015 22:21:06 +0000 Tyler Durden 502957 at http://www.zerohedge.com Some Folks Were Selling: "Great" Job Number Sends Markets Into Turmoil http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/some-folks-were-selling-great-job-number-sends-markets-turmoil <p>Only one thing for it really...</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/AYrpROr9Gmk" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Stocks did not &#39;love&#39; the great headline jobs data... <strong>worst day for S&amp;P and Dow since Jan 5th</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD11.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD11_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 509px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/EOD_1.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/EOD_1.png" style="width: 376px; height: 302px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Bonds did not &#39;love&#39; the great headlines jobs data - Treasury yields soared 10-13bps on the day and 20-25bps on the week (2Y +11bps on the week) - <strong>2nd worst week for bonds sine June 2013&#39;s Taper Tantrum -&nbsp; </strong>note that 30Y rallied 3bps off the highs as stocks accelerated lower...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD3_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 320px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Commodities did not &#39;love&#39; the great headlines jobs data</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 556px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Global currencies did not &#39;love&#39; the great headlines jobs data - <strong>best week for the US Dollar since September 2011</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD4.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD4_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 314px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/EOD_2_0.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/EOD_2_0.png" /></a></p> <p><u><strong>But apart from that... everything is awesome?</strong></u></p> <p>AAPL in The Dow... awesome</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD8.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD8_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 467px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Nasdaq 5000... so long ago now...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD10.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD10_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 463px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>On the day - the S&amp;P and Dow had their worst day since Jan 5th...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD14.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD14_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 504px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>All major indies are now red for March... (and the week)</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD12.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD12_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 457px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>All sectors back into the red now on the week...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD13.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD13_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 504px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Year-To-Date, Trannies are comfortably red, Dow dropped back to practically unch...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD9.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD9_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 476px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>On the week, Treasury yields were smashed higher...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The US Dollar surged all week...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD5.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD5_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 317px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Commodities faded all week as the USD strengthened (apart from oil) but once crude woke up to what China did, it dumped...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD6.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD6_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Who could have seen this coming?</p> <p>cost of funding?</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD15.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD15_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 379px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Fundamentals...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD7.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/03/20150306_EOD7_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 314px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>One last thing - for everyone confused at how everything can be sold? Where did all the money go? Where did it rotate to?</strong> The answer is very simple - it&#39;s not real money - its leveraged carry trades and the expectatons for a rat hike dramatically raise the risk of those positions and this that<strong> leverage is reduced and credit extinguished... it does not &quot;go&quot; anywhere...</strong></p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p>Did I mention the full moon?</p> <p>&mdash; Not Jim Cramer (@Not_Jim_Cramer) <a href="https://twitter.com/Not_Jim_Cramer/status/573896552248311809">March 6, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/some-folks-were-selling-great-job-number-sends-markets-turmoil#comments China Crude Full Moon headlines Jim Cramer NASDAQ Fri, 06 Mar 2015 21:55:13 +0000 Tyler Durden 502949 at http://www.zerohedge.com 5 Things To Ponder: Spring Break Reading List http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/5-things-ponder-spring-break-reading-list <p><a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/daily-x-change/2635-5-things-to-ponder-spring-break-reading-list.html"><em>Submitted by Lance Roberts via TA Wealth Management</em></a>,</p> <p>This weekend I leave for the snowy mountains of Utah to go skiing. It is our annual family reunion, and there has not been a year yet where someone hasn&#39;t ended up in the medical clinic. From just bumps and bruises to broken collarbones and torn ACL&#39;s, the injuries have been mild to severe. However, this is the risk that is taken <strong>when you decide to plungehead first down an ice covered mountain on a piece of fiberglass strapped to your feet</strong>. Eventually, despite the greatest of skill, something is going to go wrong.</p> <p>What is interesting is that on a daily basis individuals jump into the financial markets with their <em>&quot;savings&quot;</em> in the hope of a thrilling ride. However, very much like skiing, inevitably you are going to take a tumble. Importantly, that <em>&quot;tumble&quot;</em> generally occurs when one becomes overly confident in their abilities and pushes the <em>&quot;risk&quot;</em> just beyond their inherent capabilities to react quickly enough. The result has tended to not be a pretty one.</p> <p>As I <a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2630">discussed earlier this week</a>, there are many signs that suggest the current market environment has begun to push the outer boundaries of the <em>&quot;risk&quot;</em> curve. While this doesn&#39;t mean that the markets are about to <em>&quot;crash,&quot;</em> it does suggest that individuals with a lesser skill set may want to be a bit more cautious.</p> <p>The following is a list of reading I will be doing while, hopefully, sipping coffee between monumental runs rather than in the medical facility nursing an injury. I know my limits, and the <em>&quot;fear&quot;</em> of falling keeps me from going over my skis.</p> <hr /> <p><u><strong>1) Business Deaths Are Killing Job Growth</strong></u> <a href="http://www.gallup.com/opinion/behavioral-economy/181841/business-deaths-hampering-job-growth.aspx?utm_source=tagrss&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=syndication">by Jon Clifton via Gallup</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;One of the main reasons that the jobs situation has yet to recover is that, according to the U.S. Census, the number of business deaths now exceeds the number of business births among employer firms for the first time since 1977, when this measurement began.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Gallup-Business-Deaths-030515.jpg" target="_blank" title="Gallup-Business-Deaths-030515"><img alt="Gallup-Business-Deaths-030515" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Gallup-Business-Deaths-030515.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 537px;" /></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Creating good jobs and subsequently rebuilding America&#39;s middle class hinges on the success and failure of small businesses and startups. Existing small businesses are experiencing headwinds caused primarily by challenging business realities, the overall economy and a concern about government regulations.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><span style="color: #ff0000;"><strong>In The <a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/component/flexicontent/2-the-daily-x-change/2556-oil-prices-rig-count-and-the-economic-impact.html?Itemid=164">&quot;I Told You So&quot;</a> Column:</strong></span> <strong>Challenger Job Cuts Surge As Lower Oil Fails To Result In Spending</strong> <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-05/2015-job-cuts-surge-19-compared-2014-energy-sector-cuts-38-total">via ZeroHedge</a></p> <p><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong>Also Read:</strong></span> <strong>Census Bureau Was Fudging Jobs Data</strong> <a href="http://nypost.com/2015/03/05/census-lights-are-on-but-fewer-are-home/">by John Crudele via NY Post</a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #dc0000;">Another Take:</span> Jennifer Aniston&#39;s Love Life Explains Unemployment Calc</strong> <a href="http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2015/03/06/what_jennifer_anistons_love_life_tells_us_about_unemployment_101564.html">by John Tamny via RCM</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>2) On My Radar Equity Valuations, Recessions &amp; Market Declines</strong></u> <a href="http://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/20150302-cmg-capital-management-group-on-my-radar-equity-valuations-recessions-and-market-declines">by Steve Blumenthal via Advisor Perspectives</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Global QE is running out of runway. Debt has increased, not decreased. <a href="http://advisorcentral.cmgwealth.com/global-race-to-debase/">Twenty countries have cut interest rates in 2015</a>. It is an all-out global race to debase. Today let&rsquo;s take a look at the hard evidence signaling slowdown. My personal view is that slowdown would not be as much of a problem if valuation measures were low. They&rsquo;re not: by just about every measure the market is overpriced, overbought and over believed.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Last week I had a fascinating conversation with Neile Wolfe of Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC. Based on the underlying data in the chart above, Neile made some cogent observations about the historical relationships between equity valuations, recessions and market prices:</p> <ul> <li>High valuations lead to large stock market declines during recessions.</li> <li>During secular bull markets, modest overvaluation does not produce large stock market declines.</li> <li>During secular bear markets, modest overvaluation still produces large stock market declines.</li> </ul> <p>Here is a table that highlights some of the key points. The rows are sorted by the valuation column.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Valuations-Recessions-Declines-030515.gif" target="_blank" title="Valuations-Recessions-Declines-030515"><img alt="Valuations-Recessions-Declines-030515" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Valuations-Recessions-Declines-030515.gif" style="width: 601px; height: 451px;" /></a></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;">Read Also:</span> Corporate Buybacks At Record Levels</strong><a href="http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/matthew-kerkhoff/buybacks-pushing-higher"> by Matthew Kerkhoff via Financial Sense</a></p> <p><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong>And More:</strong></span> <strong>Bull Market In Stock Buybacks</strong> <a href="http://blog.yardeni.com/2015/03/bull-market-in-buybacks-excerpt.html">by Ed Yardeni</a></p> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Stock-Buybacks-030615.jpg" target="_blank" title="Stock-Buybacks-030615"><img alt="Stock-Buybacks-030615" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Stock-Buybacks-030615.jpg" style="width: 601px; height: 343px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #dc0000;">But Also:</span> US Equity Valuations To Be Dismissed?</strong> <a href="http://blog.bcaresearch.com/u-s-equity-valuations-to-be-dismissed">by BCA Research</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>3) Investors May Have Jumped On The Wrong Boat</strong></u> <a href="http://gavekal.blogspot.com/2015/03/ecb-asset-purchases-big-equity-decline.html">by GaveKal Research</a></p> <p>I noted in yesterday&#39;s <a href="http://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2634">&quot;3 Things</a>&quot; that the net percentage of investment managers long Eurozone related stocks was at an all time high. GaveKal has a great piece explaining why this may just turn out to be a very bad idea.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;All of this would seem to lend support to the relationship we showed between ECB asset purchases and stock performance <a href="http://gavekal.blogspot.com/2015/01/msci-europe-could-fall-30-with-ecb.html" target="_blank">a while back</a>-- namely that MSCI Europe looks vulnerable to a 35% decline from current levels.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/ECB-BalanceSheet-MSCI-030615.png" target="_blank" title="ECB-BalanceSheet-MSCI-030615"><img alt="ECB-BalanceSheet-MSCI-030615" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/ECB-BalanceSheet-MSCI-030615.png" style="width: 600px; height: 336px;" /></a></p> <p><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong>Opposing View:</strong>&nbsp;<span><strong><span style="color: #000000;">The Compelling Case For European Stocks</span> </strong><a href="http://online.barrons.com/articles/the-case-for-stocks-with-an-accent-on-europe-1425423337?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_2">by John Kimelman via Barron&#39;s</a></span></span></p> <p><span style="color: #dc0000;"><strong>Read Also:&nbsp;<span style="color: #000000;">Why Weak Data And Earnings Don&#39;t Matter...Yet</span></strong><span style="color: #000000;">&nbsp;<a href="http://pensionpartners.com/blog/?p=1318">by Charlie Bilello via Pension Partners</a></span></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span><u><strong>4) Why This Tech Mania Is Worse Than 2000&nbsp;</strong></u><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-this-tech-bubble-is-worse-than-the-tech-bubble-of-2000-2015-3">by Mark Cuban via Business Insider</a></span></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>&quot;</strong></span>For those who can&#39;t figure out how to be Angels. You can sign up to be part of the new excitement called . Equity Crowd Funding allows you to join the masses to chase investments with as little as 5k dollars. Oh the possibilities!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that most of these individual Angels and crowdfunders are underwater in their investments. Absolutely none. I say most. The percentage could be higher.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Why?&nbsp;<strong>Because there is ZERO liquidity for any of those investments. None. Zero. Zip.</strong>&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><strong style="color: #dc0000;">But Also Read:</strong></span><strong style="color: #dc0000;">&nbsp;</strong><span><strong>Cuban Is Wrong</strong> <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-why-mark-cuban-is-wrong-about-the-tech-bubble-2015-03-05">by Cullen Roche via Market Watch</a></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span><u><strong>5) Ready To Retire? Probably Not&nbsp;</strong></u><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/102475483">by Kelly Hollan via CNBC</a></span></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span>&quot;A stabilizing retirement age is a problem because workers today have, on average, saved far too little to insure a comfortable retirement. <strong>Average 401(k) balances at Fidelity were $91,300 in 2014,</strong> but the firm also estimated that a 65-year-old couple retiring that year would spend an average of $220,000 during retirement on out-of-pocket health care costs alone.&quot;</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><strong><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;">Read Also:</span></strong><strong>&nbsp;Invest Or Save More?</strong></strong>&nbsp;<a href="http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/passive-management-vs-saving-more.html">by Noah Smith</a></span></p> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;">Read Also:</span>&nbsp;Lightening Generally Strikes Just Once&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://awealthofcommonsense.com/investor-behavior-following-large-gains-losses/" style="background-color: transparent;">by Ben Carlson via Wealth Of Common Sense</a></p> <hr /> <p><strong style="background-color: transparent;"><span style="color: #dc0000;">Chart Of The Day:</span> Screw It I&#39;m All In&nbsp;</strong><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/03/screw-it-im-all-in/"><span style="background-color: transparent;">by Barry Ritholtz via The Big Picture</span></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #dc0000;"><a class="highslide ageent-ru" href="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Nasdaq5000-031615.png" target="_blank" title="Nasdaq5000-031615"><img alt="Nasdaq5000-031615" class="i_want_img5" src="http://streettalklive.com/images/1dailyxchange/misc/Nasdaq5000-031615.png" style="width: 600px; height: 400px;" /></a></span></strong></p> <hr /> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div> <p>&quot;The trick is to stop thinking of it as YOUR money.&quot; - IRS Auditor</p> </blockquote> <p>Have A Great Spring Break.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="592" height="358" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150306_nas1.jpg?1425672768" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/5-things-ponder-spring-break-reading-list#comments Barry Ritholtz Census Bureau Eurozone Gallup None Unemployment Wells Fargo Fri, 06 Mar 2015 21:35:58 +0000 Tyler Durden 502950 at http://www.zerohedge.com Financial Documentaries http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/financial-documentaries <p>Below are a few documentaries that are a must watch if you haven't already seen them. If you have, watch them again.&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAYNW_vunfI">Money For Nothing</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/untouchables/">The Untouchables&nbsp;</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/view/">The Go Go's</a>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/money-power-wall-street/">Money, Power &amp; Wall Street</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-real-estate-bubble-lesley-stahl-60-minutes/">China's Real Estate Bubble</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYm_oEO5iyE">Inside Job&nbsp;</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/congress-trading-stock-on-inside-information/">Congress: Trading Stock on Inside Information</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T_VxdLJdDU">Monarchs of Money</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1LCBp0twLE">The Great Euro Crisis BBC</a>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5Ac7ap_MAY">Princes of the Yen</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUwu5CiESbc">CNN Special Report on the Dot-Com Bubble</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90XMyHLAmlE">TGLO's IPO Coverage, CNBC&nbsp;</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDXWIagIB40">TGLO's IPO Coverage, CNN&nbsp;</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zsqa-YHE36A">Argentina's Financial Collapse</a>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KE9aFqEyUhA">The Crash of 1929: The Great Depression&nbsp;</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2m3t2Yr8Vg">First Look Inside the Federal Reserve</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pjSlIkNxXg">Black Monday-Nightly Business Report October 19th, 1987</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34">Before the Crash- Wall Street Week October 16, 1987</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFn1G2goDQw">After the Crash- Wall Street Week October 23, 1987</a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-blog"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_blog" width="450" height="335" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user191381/imageroot/alg_printing_money.jpg?1425675160" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-06/financial-documentaries#comments Federal Reserve Great Depression Real estate Yen Fri, 06 Mar 2015 20:52:42 +0000 StalingradandPoorski 502948 at http://www.zerohedge.com