en German Vice Chancellor Warns UK "Must Pay For Brexit" Or Europe Would Go "Down The Drain" <p>Germany's outspoken economy minister, and Angela Merkel's vice-chancellor, Sigma Gabriel continued to make waves over the weekend when he attacked her handling of the migrant crisis, forcing the German chancellor to defend her refugee policy and firing the gun on the campaign for a general election next year. Gabriel, leader of the left-leaning Social Democrats and Ms Merkel’s junior coalition partner, called for a cap on the number of migrants entering Germany, saying the government had “underestimated the challenge” of integrating the 1million refugees who arrived in 2015.</p> <p>As the <a href="">FT comments</a>, his remarks show how battle lines are being drawn between Germany’s main parties ahead of next year’s election. As reported last night, his remarks coincide with a poll showing that one in two Germans did not want Ms Merkel, who has been chancellor since 2005, to remain in the post after next year’s elections. She has refused to confirm whether she will stand again. </p> <p>In a television interview on Sunday, Ms Merkel said “much had been achieved” in overcoming the refugee crisis, but there remained “lots still to do”. She expressed no regrets about her decision last year to throw open Germany’s borders to asylum-seekers, a move that has damaged her CDU party’s prospects in next year’s elections and led to the rise of Alternative for Germany, an insurgent party whose call for strict controls on immigration is resonating with millions of voters.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Mr Gabriel has called for a migrant cap based on Germany’s capacity to successfully integrate newcomers, a move Ms Merkel has always ruled out. His intervention is significant because it is usually the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, the CSU, that criticises her open-door refugee policy rather than the SPD, which has been much more supportive. Mr Gabriel said the country needed 25,000 more teachers, for example, for the 300,000 additional schoolchildren who had come into the country. “You can’t repeat that every year,” he added. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In her interview, Ms Merkel listed the measures her government had taken to improve the process of integrating foreigners, including hiring thousands more officials to work in the country’s refugee agency, speeding up the deportation of migrants denied asylum and introducing tough new rules to encourage refugees to learn German and attend integration courses or face sanctions.</p> </blockquote> <p>However, recent polls show that many in Germany are unconvinced about the country’s ability to absorb so many foreigners, many of them Muslims from Iraq and Syria.&nbsp; Such misgivings increased after two terror attacks in Bavaria in July committed by refugees with links to the militant group Isis.</p> <p>Sensing a political opportunity, Gabriel said it was not enough to keep repeating “we can do this” — the Merkel catchphrase that has become a leitmotif on the issue. “They have to create the preconditions for us to achieve this,” he added. </p> <p>That was not all. Having slammed Merkel's foreign policy, the ascendant vice-chancellor <a href=";CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1472441156">then focused on foreign policy </a>and <strong>said that Britain must not be allowed to “keep the nice things” that come with EU membership without taking responsibility for the fallout from Brexit</strong>.</p> <p>As Theresa May called a cabinet meeting to discuss the UK government’s Brexit strategy on Wednesday, Gabriel warned if the issue was badly handled and other member countries followed Britain’s lead, Europe would go “<strong>down the drain, </strong>the <a href=";CMP=twt_b-gdnnews#link_time=1472441156">Guardian reported</a>, noting that the <strong>"UK must pay for Brexit."</strong></p> <p><strong>“Brexit is bad but it won’t hurt us as much economically as some fear – it’s more of a psychological problem and it’s a huge problem politically,” </strong>he told a news conference.</p> <p>Gabriel lamented that in the aftermath of Brexit, "the world now regarded Europe as an unstable continent" adding that “<strong>if we organise Brexit in the wrong way, then we’ll be in deep trouble, so now we need to make sure that we don’t allow Britain to keep the nice things, so to speak, related to Europe while taking no responsibility,</strong>” Gabriel said.</p> <p>Since Britain’s 23 June referendum vote to leave the European Union, all eyes have been on Germany to indicate a way out of danger for the 27 members who will remain, and so far Germany has been stuck in a holding pattern, unable to provide much needed guidance to its European peers. In an interview with German broadcaster ARD on Sunday, Merkel said: “We all agree in the European Union that Britain’s exit, the result of the referendum, has a big impact." </p> <p>“Rather than rushing into activities, we should perhaps first take time to think about what we, as the 27 countries, must do better,” she said, adding that this was the direction that talks with partner countries were going in.</p> <p>Last Wednesday, during the latest toothless European summit, Merkel said remaining member states must listen to each other carefully and avoid rushing into policy decisions. “If you do it wrong from the beginning and you don’t listen – and act just for the sake of acting – then you can make many mistakes,” the conservative German leader said.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the sharp rhetoric is expected to escalate as Europe is unable to negotiate Brexit and formalize its decision until the UK invokes Article 50, something which will likely not take place until next year. A British government spokesman said in mid-August that prime minister Theresa May will not begin formal divorce talks with the EU before the end of the year.</p> <p>Disappointed EU leaders, facing mounting nationalist pressures of their own, are refusing to countenance a “Europe a la carte” the Guardian concludes, by letting Britain select the parts of its future relationship that it may like, such as access to the bloc’s single market of 500 million consumers, while dispensing with EU principles such as the free movement of people. </p> <p>Lamentably for Europe, just as central banks have recently become far more open and direct about how powerless they truly are to remedy the global economic contraction, so the post-Brexit fallout, whose adverse impact on the British economy has yet to be determined, is exposed just how frail the European experiment has become, and should one more anti-European party win in domestic elections, the entire mirage of a successful united Europe may finally be revealed for the empty facade it has been since day one.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="453" height="295" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Central Banks European Union Germany Iraq Mon, 29 Aug 2016 16:01:15 +0000 Tyler Durden 570958 at Huma Adebin Announces Separation From Anthony Weiner Over Latest Sexting Scandal <p>Earlier today we <a href="">wondered how long</a>, in the aftermath of the latest Anthony Weiner "dick-pic" scandal, the marriage between Hillary Clinton's top lieutenant and her <em>allegedly </em>cheating husband would last. The answer: a few hours. <strong>Moments ago, Huma Abedin issued a statement announcing that she has decided to separate from her husband, Anthony Weiner, the former congressman who has been repeatedly caught sexting with other women.</strong></p> <p>"After long and painful consideration and work on my marriage, I have made the decision to separate from my husband," Abedin, a top Hillary Clinton aide, said in a statement.</p> <p>"Anthony and I remain devoted to doing what is best for our son, who is the light of our life. During this difficult time, I ask for respect for our privacy."</p> <p>The announcement comes after the New York Post reported on Weiner's latest sexually explicit messages with another woman. Weiner resigned from Congress in 2011 after "mistakenly" tweeting an explicit image of himself intended as a direct message. </p> <p>Weiner, whose career ended after a sexting scandal, was reportedly exchanging messages with a woman on July 31, 2015 when he changed the subject of the explicit conversation, saying, "Someone just climbed into my bed," according to the New York Post. </p> <p>He attached a picture of his crotch, with his son curled up nearby in a blanket. “You do realize you can see you[r] Weiner in that pic??” the woman responded, according to the Post.</p> <p>Earlier this month, Weiner gave his phone number to and offered to share his location with a college student during a private online chat, according to the Post. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="285" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="800" height="456" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> New York Post Mon, 29 Aug 2016 15:34:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 570957 at "Election Fraud Underway" - NBC Affiliate Posts "Election Results" For Florida Race That Hasn't Happened Yet <p><strong>Republican candidate for Florida House District 86, Laurel Bennett,</strong> was a bit shocked over the weekend when she discovered that a local <strong>West Palm Beach NBC affiliate, WPTV, reported that she had lost a race even though votes hadn&#39;t been cast yet.&nbsp; </strong>Why do we need voters when it&#39;s far easier to just skip straight to the results?&nbsp;</p> <p>The note from WPTV showed Laurel getting 12,189 votes or 45%.&nbsp; Laurel posted the following comment to her facebook page in response to the erroneous report:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;Election fraud is already taking place here in Palm Beach County!</strong>&nbsp; WPTV is posting election results, today, when the race is Tuesday! Please spread the word and contact everyone you know to vote Bennett on Tuesday! I have a snapshot of it! <strong>End corruption in Palm Beach!</strong> It begins with you, the voter!&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> </blockquote> <p><img alt="Laurel Bennett" height="196" src="" width="600" /></p> <p><img alt="Laurel Bennett" height="512" src="" width="288" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Accordig to <a href="">Bizpac Review</a>, the station claims they were just &quot;<strong>testing their election page</strong>&quot; in an effort to &quot;<strong>bring you fast and accurate election results on election day.</strong>&quot;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;In order to <strong>make sure we bring you fast and accurate election results on election day</strong>, we are <strong>testing our election page ahead of time with test data</strong>.&nbsp; On election day, this message will be removed and the actual election results will be displayed on this page.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Sure, because it&#39;s impossible to &quot;test&quot; an election page without filling in &quot;test&quot; results.&nbsp; <strong>We&#39;re sure this &quot;test&quot; wouldn&#39;t have a chilling effect on voters who looked online to discover their candidate had already lost.&nbsp; </strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="264" height="191" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Corruption Florida NBC Mon, 29 Aug 2016 15:18:10 +0000 Tyler Durden 570936 at US Slams Turkish Bombing Of American Coalition Partners As "Unacceptable And A Source Of Deep Concern" <p>Things are turning increasingly sour for the US, which is barely able to keep track of which feuding factions it supports in the escalating Syrian war. </p> <p>Recall that over the weekend we reported how "<a href="">Joe Biden Was Humiliated In Turkish "Appeasement" As Erdogan Bombs US Allies In Syria</a>." Concerned by Turkey's recent overtures toward Russia, which even hinted at military cooperation between Moscow and Ankara, Biden arrived in Turkey last Wednesday, just as Turkey sent tanks into northern Syria, with nothing but appeasement for the Turkish president whose unprecedented crackdown on human rights has left over 100,000 Turks arrested, terminated, or otherwise "purged" without anything more than an occasional verbal rebuke by the western "democratic" powers.&nbsp;</p> <p> Meeting with Erdogan and Turkey's prime minister in Ankara, Biden delivered a message of alliance and conciliation: "<strong>Let me say it for one last time: The American people stand with you ... Barack Obama was one of the first people you called. But I do apologize. I wish I could have been here earlier," </strong>Biden said. </p> <p>That is all Erdogan needed to hear as he then proceeded to launch a bombing campaign not against Islamic State holdouts in proximity to the Turkish border - the stated reason for the Turkish incursion - but against his legacy foes, the Kurdish militia, the YPG, which problematically for the US, <strong>is part of the broader U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition</strong>. </p> <p>So, less than a week after Biden's attempt to appease Erdogan, earlier today the United States, now finding itself in the paradoxical position of directly supporting two warring factions, <strong>criticized clashes between Turkish forces and some opposition groups in northern Syria as "unacceptable," calling on all armed actors in the fighting to stand down and focus on battling ISIS</strong>.</p> <p>Cited by <a href="">NBC</a>, Brett McGurk, the special presidential envoy for the coalition to counter ISIS, <a href="">said on his official Twitter account </a>that according to the DOD "we want to make clear that we find these clashes — in areas where [ISIS] is not located — <strong>unacceptable and a source of deep concern</strong>." </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="837" /></a></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;"We call on all armed actors to stand down... the U.S. is actively engaged to facilitate such deconfliction and unity of focus on [ISIS], which remains a lethal and common threat," </strong>he added. </p> <p>At the start of Turkey's now almost week-long cross-border offensive, Turkish tanks, artillery and warplanes provided Syrian rebel allies the firepower to capture swiftly the Syrian frontier town of Jarablus from ISIS militants. Since then, Turkish forces have mainly pushed into areas controlled<br /> by forces aligned to the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition<br /> that encompasses the Kurdish YPG militia and which has been backed by<br /> Washington to fight the jihadists. </p> <p>NATO member Turkey justifies its attack on the US coalition member by claiming that YPG is an extension<br /> of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged a<br /> three-decade insurgency in Turkey's largely Kurdish southeast. As we previously reported, a group monitoring the tangled, five-year-old conflict in Syria said <em>41 people were killed by Turkish air strikes as Turkish forces pushed south on Sunday. </em>Turkey denied there were any civilian deaths, saying 25 Kurdish militants were killed. </p> <p>Turkish officials say their goal in Syria is to drive out ISIS but also to ensure Kurdish militia fighters do not expand the territory they already control along Turkey's border.</p> <p>As a result of today's verbal condemnation by the US, we expect Erdogan - who continues to hold all the Trump cards over Europe's future with some 2 million Syrian refugees housed within its borders, and which can be released into Europe on a moment's notice - to unleash another verbal assault on the US and its western allies, coupled with another Russian pivot threat, to show the Obama administration who is and remains in charge of the latest escalation in the 5 year old Syrian conflict.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the US will find itself increasingly pressed by its "coalition partners" who will demand justification why some allies remain more equal than other allies, and just how the administration decides why and who gets preferential treatment. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="568" height="346" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Barack Obama Joe Biden NBC Obama Administration Turkey Twitter Twitter Mon, 29 Aug 2016 14:50:56 +0000 Tyler Durden 570953 at Dallas Fed Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies - Economy Contracts For 20th Month In A Row <p>Having jumped miraculously from -18 to -1.3 in July, August's Dallas Fed plunged back to -6.2 - <strong>contracting for the 20th month in a row</strong>. The worse than expected headline data came despite a rise in new orders as the <strong>number of employees, average workweek, and capex all plunged into contraction</strong>. Hope also tumbled from 18.4 to 7.0 with inventories and new orders expected to slow.</p> <p>Despite the surge in oil prices, the Dallas economy continues to contract...</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="311" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="969" height="502" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Dallas Fed Mon, 29 Aug 2016 14:38:41 +0000 Tyler Durden 570952 at Anthony Weiner Pulls Out - Deletes Twitter Account After New Sexting Scandal <p>In what is likely disappointing news for TMZ and meme-creators internet-wide, former Congressman (and somehow still husband of Hillary Clinton top aide Huma Abedin) Anthony <strong>Weiner has apparently deleted his Twitter account</strong>. The move comes after<a href=""> The Post exclusively reported</a> Weiner had <strong>sexted (again) a busty brunette &mdash; even sending a lurid crotch shot alongside his toddler son</strong>.</p> <p><a href="">As The Hill reports,</a> Weiner, whose career ended after a sexting scandal, was reportedly exchanging messages with a woman on July 31, 2015, when he changed the subject of the explicit conversation, saying, &quot;Someone just climbed into my bed,&quot; the New York Post reported.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>He then attached a picture of his crotch, with his son curled up nearby.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img height="623" src="" width="566" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;You do realize you can see you[r] Weiner in that pic??&rdquo; the woman responded, according to the Post.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Earlier this month, Weiner gave his phone number and offered to share his location with a college student during a private online chat,</strong> according to the Post.</p> </blockquote> <p>Furthermore, as <a href="">the Post adds</a>, the former congressman allegedly sent a whole folder&#39;s worth of thirsty texts to a woman who is not his wife Huma Abedin, including: at least one (1) shirtless selfie; a selfie of him removing his shirt; close up shots of his Jockey underwear (worn, bulge visible); and a close-up shot of his abs while his young son is in the bed.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The stay-at-home cad shot the revealing photo while discussing massage parlors &ldquo;near my old apartment&rdquo; shortly after 3 a.m. on July 31, 2015, a screen shot of the exchange shows. Weiner was clearly aroused by his conversation with the 40-something divorcee when he abruptly changed the subject.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Someone just climbed into my bed,&rdquo; Weiner wrote.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Really?&rdquo; she responded.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Weiner then hit &ldquo;send&rdquo; on the cringe-inducing image, which shows a bulge in his white, Jockey-brand boxer briefs and his son cuddled up to his left, wrapped in a light-green blanket.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;You do realize you can see you[r] Weiner in that pic??&rdquo; the woman wrote.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Moments after forwarding the photo, Weiner freaked out over the possibility he had accidentally posted it publicly &mdash; just as he did during the infamous episode that forced him to resign from Congress in 2011.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Ooooooh&ensp;.&thinsp;.&thinsp;.&ensp;I was scared. For half a second I thought I posted something. Stop looking at my crotch,&rdquo; Weiner wrote back.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Whatever. You did it on purpose,&rdquo; she replied.</p> </blockquote> <p>And now - it appears - Weiner has deleted his account with Twitter ow saying that @AnthonyWeiner&#39;s account &quot;does not exist.&quot;</p> <p><a href=""><img height="251" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As a reminder, Weiner resigned from Congress in June 2011 after accidentally sharing another lurid crotch shot on Twitter. His New York City mayoral campaign imploded two years later when more online sexual shenanigans surfaced.</p> <p>Weiner is the husband of Huma Abedin, the vice chair of Hillary Clinton&rsquo;s presidential campaign, and arguably the most important person in the entire campaign after Hillary, making us wonder how long before the scandalous couple finally calls it quits, or there is another &quot;Seth Rich&quot;-type incident.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="771" height="89" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> New York City New York Post Twitter Twitter Mon, 29 Aug 2016 14:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 570944 at Black Panther Party Leader Blasts Billary: "Democrats Are Pimping Us Politically, Promising Everything, Giving Nothing" <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Mac Slavo via,</em></a></p> <p><strong>It seems that Donald Trump&rsquo;s recent speech urging black Americans to vote for him because of failing Clinton and Obama policies has not fallen on deaf ears.</strong></p> <p>African Americans, who have for decades voted en masse for democrat party candidates to the tune of 90% support or more, have<strong> finally realized that just because a politician says he or she is going to do something doesn&rsquo;t mean it will actually happen</strong>.</p> <p>We&rsquo;re sure you remember Obama&rsquo;s promises of free health care, free education, more jobs and better communities. <strong>That not even the first black American President was able to improve the lives of minorities may have finally woken some people up.</strong></p> <p>The following interview with New Black Panther&nbsp;Quanell X requires no further commentary &ndash; he breaks it down quite succinctly:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Let me say this to the brothers and sisters who listened and watched that speech&hellip; We may not like the vessel [Donald Trump] that said what he said, but I ask us to truly examine what he said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Because it is a fact that for 54 years <strong>we have been voting for the Democratic Party like no other race in America.</strong> And they have not given us the same loyalty and love that we have given them. We, as black people, have to reexamine the relationship. <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>We&rsquo;re being pimped like prostitutes and they&rsquo;re the big pimps pimping us politically&hellip; promising us everything and we get nothing in return. We gotta step back now as black people and we gotta look at all the parties and vote our best interests.</strong></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I want to say and encourage the brothers and sisters&hellip;&nbsp;Barack Obama, our president, served two terms&hellip;&nbsp;the first black president ever&hellip; but did our condition get better? &nbsp;Did financially, politically, academically with education in our community&hellip; did things get better? Are our young people working more?</p> <p><strong>The condition got worse.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Watch the full interview:</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="481" height="313" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Barack Obama Donald Trump Mon, 29 Aug 2016 14:20:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 570950 at "Massive Shock" Looms In Japan As Kuroda Is In "Jeopardy", According To $2 Trillion Investor <p>Yesterday, in our post-mortem on the Jackson Hole symposium, <a href="">we found one particular highlight most notable: </a>according to Princeton University economist Christopher Sims, "policymakers were told that it may take a massive program, large enough even to shock taxpayers into a different, inflationary view of the future." And, as has been customary over the past year, the place where this "shock therapy" will be tested first, will be the same place where 30 years of unconventional monetary policy has so far failed: Japan. </p> <p>That is the scenario envisioned by Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management who oversees the investment policy and strategy for about $2 trillion in invested assets. </p> <p>In a <a href="">Bloomberg Television interview</a>, on Monday, Haegele said that the BOJ could announce a “<strong>massive stimulus program</strong>” as the nation desperately seeks to reach a 2% inflation target. </p> <p>“<strong>It is how much they do, and whether they can create that kind of shock and awe at this point in the cycle</strong>,” said Haefele, adding “they could announce a massive stimulus program both on the monetary and fiscal side or they could end up reducing their inflation targets. <strong>Right now, it looks like they are going to use more stimulus.</strong>”</p> <p>Indeed it does, the question is whether doing even more will lead to a different result: after all the BOJ already owns a third of all JGBs, and is rapidly nationalizing the entire stock market. </p> <p>During his Jackson Hole appearance, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that the central bank won’t hesitate to boost monetary stimulus if needed, and there is ample space for additional easing. He also said that the central bank will carefully consider how to best use policy to achieve its price stability target.</p> <p>As <a href="">Bloomberg adds</a>, consumer prices excluding fresh food -- the BOJ’s benchmark inflation gauge -- fell 0.5 percent in July from a year earlier, government data earlier this month showed. <strong>That was the steepest drop since March 2013, the month before Kuroda launched unprecedented stimulus.&nbsp;</strong> </p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="281" /></p> <p>It is Japan’s inability to achieve its inflation goals has "put that country and that central bank into some kind of jeopardy that they are going to have to work their way out of," Haefele said. </p> <p>The BOJ is currently undertaking a review of its monetary policy ahead of its next meeting Sept. 20-21. Whether the central bank adopts more stimulus with the yen at its current level or waits to see if it strengthens more is “an open question,” he said.</p> <p>“It is hard to say that any one move is going to be enough given the history of stimulus in Japan has been erratic,” Haefele said. "<strong>But everybody is hoping that they will give it another try because clearly Japan, despite reaffirming their inflation targets, has not been able to hit them.</strong>"</p> <p>By "everybody" he mostly meant corporations and shareholders; for everyone else another sharp plunge in the Yen will mean a surge in imported inflation, a drop in purchasing power, even more negative savings rates, deteriorating economic fundamentals, and a general decline in the standards of living. However, since Japan is now all in, its only option remains to double down, and when that fails, to double down again until its entire financial system finally cracks. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="533" height="301" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Consumer Prices Japan Monetary Policy Purchasing Power Yen Mon, 29 Aug 2016 13:58:52 +0000 Tyler Durden 570949 at Trump By A Landslide? <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,</em></a></p> <p><em>Based on this analytic structure, Trump may not just win the election in November--he might win by a landslide.</em></p> <p><strong>If we believe the mainstream media and the Establishment it protects and promotes, Trump has no chance of winning the presidential election.</strong> For starters, Trump supporters are all Confederate-flag waving hillbillies, bigots, fascists and misogynists. In other words. &quot;good people&quot; can&#39;t possibly vote for Trump.</p> <p>Even cartoon character Mike Doonesbury is fleeing to Vancouver to escape Trumpism. (Memo to the Doonesbury family: selling your Seattle home will barely net the down payment on a decent crib in Vancouver.)</p> <p>For another, Trump alienates the entire planet every time he speaks.</p> <p>The list goes on, of course, continuing with his lack of qualifications.</p> <p><strong>But suppose this election isn&#39;t about Trump or Hillary at all.</strong> Suppose, as political scientists Allan J. Lichtman and Ken DeCell claimed in their 1988 book, <a href=";camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0819170089&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=charleshughsm-20&amp;linkId=7ae5c8ee9c8c0caed67ad17bbea093bc" target="resource">Thirteen Keys to the Presidency</a>, that all presidential elections from 1860 to the present are referendums on the sitting president and his party.</p> <p>If the public views the sitting president&#39;s second term favorably, the candidate from his party will win the election. If the public views the sitting president&#39;s second term unfavorably, the candidate from the other party will win the election.</p> <p>(Lichtman published another book on his system in 2008, <a href=";camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0742562700&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=charleshughsm-20&amp;linkId=5b1b47fd18680edb112c05bf0847a401" target="resource">The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President</a>.)</p> <p><strong>Author/historian Robert W. Merry sorts through the 13 analytic keys in the current issue of <a href="" target="resource">The American Conservative</a> magazine and concludes they &quot;could pose bad news for Clinton.&quot;</strong></p> <p>If five or fewer are negative for the incumbent, the incumbent party will win the election. If six or more are negative, the incumbent party loses the election. Merry counts eight negatives for President Obama&#39;s second term, which if true spells defeat for the Clinton ticket.</p> <p><img class="wide" src="" style="border: 0px none;" width="500" /></p> <p><img class="wide" src="" style="border: 0px none;" width="500" /></p> <p>Whether the 13 issues are positive or negative for the candidates is of course open to debate, but <strong>consider what it means that Trump won the Republican nomination despite the near-universal opposition of the Establishment.</strong></p> <p>Consider that some polls found that <a href="" target="resource">68 percent of adults think the country is on the wrong track</a> and a recent average of six polls on the subject concluded that <a href="" target="resource">64% of adults feel the nation is moving in the wrong direction</a>.</p> <p><strong>This means 2/3 of the nation&#39;s adults no longer buy into the Establishment/ mainstream media&#39;s narrative that the economy is expanding nicely, things are going in the right direction and Hillary Clinton has a lock on the presidency.</strong></p> <p>Merry scored the economy as a positive for the incumbent party, but based on the public&#39;s view of where the nation is heading, I suspect the reality that the economy is weakening rapidly can no longer be hidden from the voting public. If we score the economy as a negative, that&#39;s nine negative keys for the incumbent party, well above the six minimum.</p> <p><strong>Based on this analytic structure, Trump may not just win the election in November--he might win by a landslide</strong>--with landslide usually being defined by an overwhelming advantage in electoral college votes or 60% of the popular vote.</p> <p><strong>As improbable as this may seem at the moment, consider the improbability of Trump capturing the Republican nomination.</strong> Consider the nature of Clinton&#39;s support: a mile wide (encompassing the entire Establishment) but only an inch deep.</p> <p>If the mainstream media has failed to persuade the American public that everything&#39;s going in the right direction, why should anyone remain confident that they can persuade the American pubic that Hillary will be their president come heck or high water?</p> <p><strong>As I have noted before, there are very few ways left to stick your thumb in the eye of the elitist, predatory, self-serving Establishment that won&#39;t get you tossed in prison other than voting against their candidate</strong>, which in this election is Hillary Clinton.</p> <p><strong>Memo to Clinton supporters</strong>: if you want to persuade the American public the nation is going in the right direction, <strong>you&#39;ll have to <em>actually change the direction</em> rather than just promise more of the same. </strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="232" height="148" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Nomination President Obama Reality White House Mon, 29 Aug 2016 13:40:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 570948 at It's All About This Friday's Payrolls: Key Events In The Coming Week <p>After Friday's Jackson Hole repricing of Fed hike expectations, which made it clear that the fate of a September (and perhaps December) rate hike is now in the hands of the August payrolls number, the main risk event of the week is therefore this Friday's US NFPs for which consensus expects a reading of 180K, down from last month's 217K print, leaving 3m trend at 242K. A number substantially above this will make a September hike virtually certain, and potentially risks roiling markets as good news will likely be bad news this time around.</p> <p>Aside from payrolls, the key economic releases this week are PCE inflation on Monday, and ISM manufacturing on Thursday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. </p> <p>In the Eurozone, the main data releases include inflation, unemployment rate and a set of possible revisions of PMIs.</p> <p>In the UK, the main release is manufacturing PMI, where a 49.5 reading is expected. </p> <p>In Australia, the main releases include capex, retail sales and building approvals.</p> <p>In Japan the main releases are jobless rate, retail sales and industrial production. The announcement of BoJ’s purchases of JGBs on Wednesday should garner attention.</p> <p>In Canada, the main data release is Q2 GDP.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>It’s a quiet start to the week in Europe this morning with Italy confidence indicators the only data due out and markets in the UK shut for a bank holiday. In the US we already saw the July personal income and spending reports, both of which printed as expected, along with the PCE core and deflator readings. Later on we’ll also get the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing survey. </p> <p>We kick off in Japan on Tuesday where we’ll get the latest jobless rate reading along with retail sales data. In Europe we’ll then get UK money and credit aggregates data, Euro area confidence indicators and Germany CPI for August. In the US tomorrow we’ll get the S&amp;P/Case-Shiller house price index and also the August consumer confidence reading. </p> <p>Turning to Wednesday, the early data in Asia comes in the form of Japan industrial production, housing starts and construction spending, and also China consumer sentiment prints. The UK will also report its August consumer confidence reading. During the European session on Wednesday we’ll get France CPI/PPI and consumer spending data, Germany unemployment and finally Euro area CPI for August. During the US session on Wednesday we’ll firstly get the ADP employment change print for August which will be worth keeping an eye on ahead of payrolls, as well as the Chicago PMI for this month and July pending home sales data. </p> <p>It’s another busy day on Thursday and we start in the Asia session with the official and non-official August PMI’s in China. We’ll then get the final August manufacturing PMI revisions in Europe as well as a first look for those in the UK and also the periphery. We then get a number of reports in the US on Thursday including initial jobless claims, Q2 nonfarm productivity and unit labour costs, the final manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing and prices paid for August and finally vehicles sales data for August. </p> <p>With little to highlight in the Asia and Europe sessions on Friday, as noted above the highlight will be the August employment report in the US and specifically payrolls. Also due out will be the July trade balance, ISM NY, factory orders and final revisions to durable and capital goods orders.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>A tabular summary of global key events and expectations from BofA:</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="548" /></a></p> <p><em>Finally, a focus on just the U, courtesy of Goldman:</em></p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Monday</strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>8:30 AM Personal income, July (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.2%); Personal spending, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); PCE price index, July (GS +0.03%, consensus flat, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index, July (GS +0.11%, consensus +0.10, last +0.10%); PCE price index (yoy), July (GS +0.8%, consensus +0.8%, last +0.9%); Core PCE price index (yoy), July (GS +1.6%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.6%): </strong>We expect personal income to rise by 0.5% and personal spending to rise by 0.4% in July. We also expect core PCE prices to increase by 0.11% in July after core CPI increased by a moderate 0.09%. The core PCE price index likely rose by 1.6% over the past year.</li> <li><strong>10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing index, August (consensus -3.0, last -1.3</strong></li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Tuesday, August 30 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>09:00 AM S&amp;P/Case-Shiller home price index, June (GS -0.1%, consensus -0.1%, last -0.1%):</strong> The Case-Shiller home price index appears to have been influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges recently. We expect a 0.1% decline in house prices in June report based on the pattern seen last year. Over the past year, the 20-city index has increased by 5.2%.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, August (GS 98.0, consensus 97.0, last 97.3):</strong> Consumer confidence is likely to tick up to 98.0 in August after the index edged down in July. The index remains near the middle of its range over the last year. Indicators of consumer sentiment remain mixed; University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report was softer, but Bloomberg’s Consumer Comfort index was more upbeat.</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Wednesday, August 31 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>03:15 AM Fed Presidents Rosengren and Evans speak:</strong> Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren (FOMC voter) and Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) will participate in a panel hosted by the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance in Beijing. The topic of the panel is “Business Cycles, Financial Markets and Monetary Policy with Special Application to China.”</li> <li><strong>08:00 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari will give a speech on the role of the Fed and the bank’s board of directors in Saint Paul, Minnesota.</li> <li><strong>08:15 AM ADP employment report, August (GS +185k, consensus +175k, last +179k):</strong> Based on our understanding of how ADP filters its own proprietary data with other publicly available information, we expect a 185k gain in ADP payroll employment in August.</li> <li><strong>09:45 AM Chicago PMI, August (GS 54.0, consensus 54.0, last 55.8):</strong> We expect the Chicago PMI to decrease to 54.0 from 55.8, still above the breakeven level.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM Pending home sales, July (consensus +0.8%, last +0.2%):</strong> Consensus expects a modest gain in pending home sales in July, following a 0.2% increase in June. We have found pending home sales—based on contract signings rather than closings—to be a decent leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Thursday, September 1 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q2 final (GS -0.8%, consensus -0.5%, last -0.5%); Unit labor costs (qoq), Q2 final (GS +4.0%, consensus +2.0%, last +2.0%):</strong> We expect unit labor costs for Q2 to be revised up to 4.0% (qoq ar) from 2.0%, reflecting upward revisions to aggregate employee compensation and downward revisions to output in the second release of Q2 GDP.</li> <li><strong>08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended August 27 (GS 255k, consensus 265k, last 261k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended August 20 (last 2,145k): </strong>We expect initial jobless claims to edge down to 255k after decreasing by a bit more than expected last week. The largest increase was in Louisiana, which potentially reflected the flooding along the Gulf coast.</li> <li><strong>09:45 AM Markit manufacturing PMI, August final (consensus 52.0, preliminary 52.1): </strong>Consensus expects the Markit services survey to be roughly in line with its flash estimate. Most responses to the survey are received by the time of the preliminary release, and revisions in the final release tend to be fairly minor.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM Construction spending, July (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.6%, last -0.6%): </strong>We expect construction spending to increase modestly after a -0.6% decline in June.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM ISM manufacturing, August (GS 51.5, consensus 52.0, last 52.6):</strong> Manufacturing surveys were mostly weaker in August, and we expect ISM manufacturing to soften to 51.5. The Richmond Fed survey contracted (-21pt to -11), and while the Empire State survey (-4.8pt to -4.3) weakened, key underlying components improved. The Kansas City Fed survey improved (+2pt to -4), but still remains in negative territory. The Philly Fed survey improved in August (+4.9pt to +2.0), but details of the report weakened notably. On net, our manufacturing survey tracker—which is scaled to the ISM index—decreased to 49.7.</li> <li><strong>12:25 PM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester will give a speech on community development in Lexington, Kentucky. Audience and media Q&amp;A is expected.</li> <li><strong>4:00 PM Total vehicle sales, August (consensus 17.3mn, last 17.8mn):</strong> Domestic vehicle sales, August (consensus 13.5mn, last 13.8mn)</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Friday, September 2 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>8:30 AM Nonfarm payroll employment, August (GS +165k, consensus +185k, last +255k); Private payroll employment, August (GS +155k, consensus +180k, last +217k); Average hourly earnings (mom), August (GS flat, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%); Average hourly earnings (yoy), August (GS +2.3%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.6%); Unemployment rate, August (GS 4.8%, consensus 4.8%, last 4.9 %):</strong> We expect an August payroll gain of 165k, after a 255k increase in July. Our below-consensus forecast partly reflects a tendency for first-print August payrolls to be weak on average. The unemployment rate is likely to edge down one-tenth to 4.8%. We expect average hourly earnings to be flat month over month and decline to 2.3% year over year, largely due to calendar effects rather than any fundamental slowing in wage growth. </li> <li><strong>08:30 AM Trade balance, July (GS -$41.8bn, consensus -$43.0bn, last -$44.5bn):</strong> We expect the trade balance to narrow in July. The Census Bureau’s new Advance Economic Indicators report showed that inventory accumulation was less than previously assumed, while the advanced goods trade balance showed a smaller-than-anticipated goods deficit. Overall, we expect the total trade deficit to be -$41.8bn.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM Factory orders, July (GS +1.9%, consensus +2.0%, last -1.5%):</strong> Factory orders likely increased in July, following better-than-expected data on durable goods orders.</li> <li><strong>01:00 PM Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker will give a speech titled, “Interest Rate Benchmarks” to the Virginia Association of Economists and the Richmond Association for Business Economics at the Richmond Fed.</li> </ul> <p>A handy summary:</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="379" /></a></p> <p><em>Source: DB, BofA, Goldman Sachs</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="918" height="696" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Australia Case-Shiller Chicago PMI China Cleveland Fed Conference Board Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment Core CPI CPI Dallas Fed Eurozone Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve Bank Of Boston France Germany goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Housing Starts Initial Jobless Claims Italy Japan Markit Monetary Policy Neel Kashkari Personal Income Philly Fed Richmond Fed Trade Balance Trade Deficit Unemployment Mon, 29 Aug 2016 13:10:22 +0000 Tyler Durden 570943 at