http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/article/article/favicon.ico en Apple Does Right By Its Users... And Advertisers Are Displeased http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/apple-does-right-its-users-and-advertisers-are-displeased <p><a href="https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2017/09/apple-does-right-users-wrong-advertisers"><em>Authored by Andres Arrieta via The Electronic Frontier Foundation,</em></a></p> <p><span>With the new </span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/sep/18/apple-stopping-ads-follow-you-around-internet-sabotage-advertising-industry-ios-11-and-macos-high-sierra-safari-internet" target="_blank"><span>Safari 11 update</span></a><span>, <strong>Apple takes an important step to protect your privacy, specifically how your browsing habits are tracked and shared with parties other than the sites you visit. </strong></span></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/23/20170925_aapl.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/23/20170925_aapl_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 331px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span>In response, Apple is </span><a href="http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/major-ad-trade-groups-release-joint-letter-outlining-deep-concerns-over-cookie-handling-functionality-of-apples-safari-11-browser-300519829.html" target="_blank"><span>getting criticized by the advertising industry</span></a></strong><span><strong> for <em>&quot;destroying the Internet&#39;s economic model.&quot;</em> </strong>While the advertising industry is trying to shift the conversation to what they call the economic model of the Internet, the conversation must instead focus on the indiscriminate tracking of users and the violation of their privacy.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>When you browse the web, you might think that your information only lives in the service you choose to visit. <strong>However, many sites load elements that share your data with third parties.</strong> First-party cookies are set by the domain you are visiting, allowing sites to recognize you from your previous visits but not to track you across other sites. For example, if you visit first examplemedia.com and then socialmedia.com, your visit would only be known to each site. In contrast, third-party cookies are those set by any other domains than the one you are visiting, and were created to circumvent the original design of cookies. In this case, when you would visit examplemedia.com and loads tracker.socialmedia.com as well, socialmedia.com would be able to track you an all sites that you visit where its tracker is loaded.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>Websites commonly use third-party tracking to allow analytics services, data brokerages, and advertising companies to set unique cookies. This data is aggregated into individual profiles and fed into a real-time auction process where companies get to bid for the right to serve an ad to a user when they visit a page. <strong>This mechanism can be used for general behavioral advertising but also for &ldquo;retargeting.&rdquo; </strong>In the latter case, &nbsp;the vendor of a product viewed on one site buys the chance to target the user later with ads for the same product on other sites around the web. As a user, you should be able to expect you will be treated with respect and that your personal browsing habits will be protected. When websites share your behavior without your knowledge, that trust is broken.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><strong><span>Safari has been blocking third-party cookies by default since Safari 5.1, </span><a href="https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT202425" target="_blank"><span>released in 2010</span></a></strong><span><strong>, and has been key to Apple&rsquo;s emerging identity as a defender of user privacy. </strong>Safari distinguished between these seedy cookies from those placed on our machines by first parties - sites we visit intentionally. From 2011 onwards, advertising companies have been devising ways to </span><a href="http://webpolicy.org/2012/02/17/safari-trackers/" target="_blank"><span>circumvent these protections</span></a><span>. One of the biggest retargeters, Criteo, even acquired a </span><a href="https://patents.google.com/patent/US20150052217A1" target="_blank"><span>patent</span></a><span> on a technique to subvert this protection</span><span>. Criteo, however, was not the first company to circumvent Safari&#39;s user protection. In 2012, </span><a href="https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2012/08/google-will-pay-225-million-settle-ftc-charges-it-misrepresented" target="_blank"><span>Google paid 22.5 million dollars </span></a><span>to settle an action by the FTC after they used another workaround to track Safari users with cookies from the DoubleClick Ad Network. Safari had an exception to the third-party ban for submission forms where the user entered data deliberately (e.g. to sign up). Google exploited this </span><a href="https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2012/02/time-make-amends-google-circumvents-privacy-settings-safari-users" target="_blank"><span>loophole</span></a><span> when Safari users visited sites participating in Google&#39;s advertising network to set a unique cookie.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><strong><span>The new Safari update, with </span><a href="https://webkit.org/blog/7675/intelligent-tracking-prevention/" target="_blank"><span>Intelligent Tracking Prevention</span></a><span>, closes loopholes around third-party cookie-blocking by using machine learning to distinguish the sites a user has a </span><a href="https://twitter.com/johnwilander/status/872009048698179584" target="_blank"><span>relationship</span></a></strong><span><strong> with from those they don&rsquo;t, and treating the cookies differently based on that. </strong>When you visit a site, any cookies that are set can be used in a third-party context for twenty-four hours. During the first twenty-four hours the third-party cookies can be used to track the user, but afterward can only be used to login and not to track. This means that sites that you visit regularly are not significantly affected. The companies this will hit hardest are ad companies unconnected with any major publisher.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em><span>At EFF <strong>we understand the need for sites to build a successful business model, but this should not come at the expense of people&#39;s privacy. </strong>This is why we launched initiatives like the </span><a href="https://www.eff.org/issues/do-not-track" target="_blank"><span>EFF DNT Policy</span></a><span> and tools like </span><a href="https://www.eff.org/privacybadger" target="_blank"><span>Privacy Badger</span></a><span>. These initiatives and tools target </span><span>tracking</span><span>, not advertising. Rather than attacking Apple for serving their users, the advertising industry should treat this as an opportunity to change direction and develop advertising models that respect (and not exploit) users.</span></em></p> <p dir="ltr"><span><strong>Apple has been a powerful force in user privacy on a mass scale in recent years, </strong>as reflected by their support for encryption, the intelligent processing of user data on device rather than in the cloud, and limitations on ad tracking on mobile and desktop. By some estimates, Apple </span><a href="https://www.netmarketshare.com/browser-market-share.aspx?qprid=0&amp;qpcustomd=1&amp;qptimeframe=Y" target="_blank"><span>handles 30%</span></a><span> of all pages on mobile. Safari&#39;s innovations are not the </span><a href="https://privacy-news.net/news_article/5936b50c178a907559b1e5f3" target="_blank"><span>silver bullet that will stop all tracking</span></a><span>,</span><a href="https://privacy-news.net/news_article/5936b50c178a907559b1e5f3"><span> </span></a><span>but by stepping up to protect their users&rsquo; privacy Apple has set a challenge for other browser developers. <em><strong>When the user&#39;s privacy interests conflict with the business models of the advertising technology complex, is it possible to be neutral?</strong></em> We hope that Mozilla, Microsoft and Google will follow Apple, <a href="https://www.brave.com/faq/#allowing-ads" target="_blank">Brave</a> and <a href="http://help.opera.com/opera/Linux/2393/en/private.html#adBlocker" target="_blank">Opera&#39;s</a> lead.</span></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="806" height="444" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170925_aapl.jpg?1506342183" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/apple-does-right-its-users-and-advertisers-are-displeased#comments Apple Behavioral targeting Business Computer access control Computing default Electronic Frontier Foundation encryption Federal Trade Commission Firefox add-ons Google Google Chrome extensions HTTP cookie Internet privacy machine learning Online advertising Safari Software Targeted advertising Technology World Wide Web Mon, 25 Sep 2017 13:17:44 +0000 Tyler Durden 604112 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Week's Key Events: European Inflation, US CapEx And Non-Stop Fed Speakers http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/weeks-key-events-european-inflation-us-capex-and-non-stop-fed-speakers <p>Beyond the plethora of central bank speakers, market focus will concentrate on Eurozone inflation and US data releases, including durable goods, home sales, and the personal income and spending report on Friday. We also get China PMIs, Japanese CPI and industrial production, the RBNZ meeting and Brexit negotiations (4th). Additionally, there will be monetary policy meetings in Mexico, Colombia, Czech Republic, Thailand and Egypt. </p> <p><strong>Watch for Eurozone inflation and US data: I</strong>n the Eurozone, Thursday's Spanish and German inflation releases are followed by Eurozone CPI the next day. BofA economists expect the latter to come in at 1.6% y/y in September up from 1.5% in August, as strength in oil is balanced by weaker food prices. They maintain a bearish view on core CPI, with expectations unchanged at 1.2% y/y, and do not see a sustained wages upswing, instead special factors explaining recent data. </p> <p>In the US the main data releases include PCE, home sales, durable goods, personal income and the final print for 2Q GDP. Core PCE is expected to increase 0.2% m/m in August while consensus expects new home sales at 588k. The impact of Hurricane Harvey and Irma prevented a recovery from July's decrease. Durable goods orders are expected at 1.0% m/m in August, supported by aircraft and motor vehicles. Expected a final 2Q GDP print of 3.1% q/q saar. Finally, August personal income is expected to come in at 0.2%. Additionally, we get the latest Chicago PMI and U.Mich. sentiment prints.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/week%20events%209.25.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/week%20events%209.25_0.jpg" width="500" height="428" /></a></p> <p><strong>Central bank speakers in the spotlight</strong></p> <p>Two to look out for are Draghi on Monday, presenting the ECB perspective on economic and monetary developments, <strong>and Yellen on Tuesday, speaking about inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy</strong>. There is no change expected during the RBNZ meeting. </p> <p>A full summary of the key events in the coming week is shown in the following BofA chart below.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/known%20unknowns%209.23.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/known%20unknowns%209.23_0.jpg" width="500" height="1519" /></a></p> <p><strong>DB's Jim Reid breaks down the week's key event on a daily basis</strong>:</p> <ul> <li>Today starts with Germany’s IFO indicators on business climate, expectations and current assessment. Over in the US, there is the Chicago Fed National and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index. </li> <li>Onto Tuesday, Japan’s services producer price index will be out early in the morning. Then in France, there is manufacturing and business confidence indicators. In the UK, finance loans for housing are due. Over in the US, there is the CB consumer confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, CoreLogic house price data for key cities as well as new home sales data. </li> <li>Turning to Wednesday, Italy’s July industrial orders along with confidence indicators on manufacturing, consumer and economic sentiment will be due. France’s consumer confidence and the Eurozone’s M3 money supply data are also due. Over in the US, there is durable and capital goods orders for August, pending home sales and MBA mortgage applications. </li> <li>For Thursday, Germany’s September CPI (with state based CPI data) and GfK consumer confidence readings will be due. For the Eurozone, there is a range of confidence indicators including: consumers, business climate, economy and industrial. Over in the US, there is the third reading of 2Q GDP, Core PCE and personal consumption. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index, August wholesale inventories and stats on continuing claims and initial jobless claims are also due. </li> <li>Finally on Friday, there will be numerous data out of Japan early in the morning, including: August national CPI, IP, jobless rate, retail sales and vehicle production. Further, China’s Caixin China PMI manufacturing index and UK’s GfK consumer confidence will also be out early. Then we have CPI for the Eurozone along with CPI &amp; PPI for France and Italy. In Germany, there is unemployment change for&nbsp; September. In the UK, there is the final reading of 2Q GDP along with mortgage approvals and money supply M4 stats. Over in the US, there is PCE core for August, personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Onto other events, this week we have quite a few central bank speakers. </strong></p> <ul> <li>Today, on the political front, Germany’s Merkel will comment on the election results, while Japan’s Abe is expected to announce a snap general election. Elsewhere, the UK Labour party conference will begin, while the next round of Brexit talks between EU and the UK will also begin. Moving onto central bankers. In the US, there are three Fed speakers, including Dudley, Evans and Kashkari. In Europe, ECB’s Draghi, Mersch and VP Constancio will also speak, while the ECB’s Coeure will chair a panel in Frankfurt. </li> <li>On Tuesday, there is the BOJ Minutes for its July meeting. In the US, the Fed’s Mester and Bostic will speak. Further, Mrs Yellen will speak on inflation, uncertainty and monetary policy. Back in the Europe, UK’s PM May and EU president Tusk will meet to discuss Brexit, while France’s Macron will outline his plans to reform the EU. </li> <li>Turning to Wednesday, we have three more Fed speakers, including: Bullard, Brainard and Rosengren. </li> <li>Then onto Thursday, we have two more Fed speakers, including George and Fischer. In the UK, the BOE will hosts the “20 years on” independence conference from the government, with BOE’s Carney, Praet and Lautenschlaeger due to speak. </li> <li>Finally, on Friday, there is BOJ’s summary of opinions for its September meeting. In the UK, IMF’s Lagarde, BOE’s Broadbent and Draghi will speak at the BOE conference. Over in the US, the Fed’s Harker will speak and round out the Fed speakers for the week.</li> </ul> <p><strong>Finally, here is Goldman's focus only on the US, </strong>in which it notes that the key economic releases this week are the durable goods report on Wednesday and the personal income and spending report on Friday. There are several speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Tuesday. </p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Monday, September 25 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>08:30 AM New York Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley will give a speech on workforce development at Onondaga Community College in Syracuse, NY. Audience Q&amp;A is expected.</li> <li><strong>10:30 AM Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, September (GS, consensus 11.5, last 17.0) </strong></li> <li><strong>12:40 PM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks: </strong>Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans will deliver a speech on the US economy and monetary policy at the Economic Club of Grand Rapids Luncheon Meeting in Michigan. Audience and media Q&amp;A is expected.</li> <li><strong>06:30 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks: </strong>Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari will participate in a town hall event in Grand Forks, North Dakota. Audience Q&amp;A is expected.</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Tuesday, September 26 </strong></span></p> <ul> <li><strong>09:00 AM S&amp;P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, July (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); </strong>We expect the S&amp;P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index to increase 0.4% in July, following a 0.1% increase in the prior month. The measure still appears to be influenced by seasonal adjustment challenges, and we place more weight on the year-over-year increase, which was 5.7% in June.</li> <li><strong>09:30 AM Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC non-voter) speaks:</strong> Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta will moderate a panel discussion on the global outlook at the NABE’s Conference on “Prospects for Growth: Reassessing the Fundamentals” in Cleveland, Ohio.</li> <li><strong>09:30 AM Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans will give opening remarks at the 17th Annual Chicago Payments Symposium.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM New home sales, August (GS +2.0%, consensus +3.3%, last -9.4%):</strong> We estimate new home sales rebounded just 2.0% in August, following a 9.4% drop in the prior month. While the level of new home sales looks depressed relative to single-family building permits, we note that Hurricane Harvey may have disrupted sales activity in the South region.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, September (GS 119.5, consensus 120.0, last 122.9): </strong>We estimate that the Conference Board consumer confidence index pulled back 3.4pt in September following a 5.6pt increase over the previous two months. Our forecast reflects sequential deterioration in higher frequency consumer surveys as well as scope for hurricane related weakness.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, September (consensus 13, last 14)</strong></li> <li><strong>10:30 AM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks</strong>: Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on labor market disparities at a conference hosted by the Board of Governors, which will feature research on labor market outcomes in Washington D.C. No Q&amp;A is expected.</li> <li><strong>12:45 PM Fed Chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks: </strong>Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will be giving a speech titled “Inflation, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy” at the National Association for Business Economics’ annual meeting. Audience Q&amp;A is expected. At the press conference following the FOMC meeting last week, Yellen downplayed the significance of the weak core inflation data.</li> <li><strong>12:30 PM Atlanta Fed President Bostic (FOMC voter) speaks: </strong>Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic will give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy to the Atlanta Press Club. Audience Q&amp;A is expected.</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;<br /><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Wednesday, September 27</strong></span> </p> <ul> <li><strong>08:30 AM Durable goods orders, August preliminary (GS +0.7%, consensus +1.0%, last -6.8%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, August preliminary (GS +0.5%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.6%); Core capital goods orders, August preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.0%); Core capital goods shipments, August preliminary (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.5%, last +1.2%):</strong> We expect durable goods orders to rise 0.7% in the August report, reflecting a modest increase in commercial aircraft orders and continued firming in core measures. Orders commentary from industrial companies remains encouraging, and we estimate durable goods orders ex-transportation increased 0.5%. We also estimate firmer core capital goods orders (+0.4%). However, manufacturing production growth disappointed in August, suggesting scope for hurricane-related disruption to shipments.</li> <li><strong>09:15 AM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give welcoming remarks at the “Tribal Community Perspectives on Higher Education” event in Minneapolis.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM Pending home sales, August (GS flat, consensus -0.5%, last -0.8%):</strong> Regional data we collect on contract signings were mixed in August, and we estimate pending home sales were unchanged in August, following a 0.7% decline in July. We have found pending home sales to be a useful leading indicator of existing home sales with a one- to two-month lag.</li> <li><strong>02:00 PM Fed Governor Brainard (FOMC voter) speaks:</strong> Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard will give a speech on labor market disparities, similar to her earlier remarks on Tuesday, at an event hosted by the Kansas City Fed on “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers”.</li> <li><strong>07:00 PM Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks: </strong>Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren will give a speech at the Money Marketeers event in New York City.</li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Thursday, September 28</strong></span> </p> <ul> <li><strong>08:30 AM GDP (third), Q2 (GS +3.0%, consensus +3.1%, last +3.0%); Personal consumption, Q2 (GS +3.3%, consensus +3.2%, last +3.3%):</strong> We do not expect a revision in the second vintage of Q2 GDP report (previously reported at +3.0% qoq saar). While we also forecast an unchanged reading for personal consumption (+3.3% qoq ar), we view the risks as skewed to the downside on account of the negative revisions to June retail sales.</li> <li><strong>08:30 AM U.S. Census Bureau Advance Economic Indicators Report; Advance goods trade balance, August preliminary (GS -$65.5bn, consensus -$65.1bn, last -$63.9bn):</strong> We estimate the goods trade deficit widened $1.6bn to $65.5bn in August. Regional port statistics suggest a slowdown in container volumes, and we expect the hurricane to weigh more heavily on export activity.</li> <li><strong>08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended September 23 (GS 255k, consensus 265k, last 259k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended September 16 (consensus 1,995k, last 1,980k)</strong>: We estimate initial jobless claims fell 4k to 255k in the week ended September 23, reflecting a further rise in Florida filings related to Hurricane Irma that is more than offset by a further decline in Texas. Continuing claims – the number of persons receiving benefits through standard programs – rose sharply in the previous week, and could edge higher again reflecting storm effects.</li> <li><strong>09:45 AM Kansas City Fed President George (FOMC non-voter) speaks:</strong> Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George will give a speech on the US economy and monetary policy at a forum titled “Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Minority Bankers”.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM Fed Vice Chair Fischer (FOMC voter) speaks: </strong>Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer will give a speech on “Developments in Central Banking” at a conference hosted by the Bank of England in London. Audience Q&amp;A is expected.</li> <li><strong>11:00 AM Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey, September (last 16)</strong></li> </ul> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Friday, September 29</strong></span> </p> <ul> <li><strong>06:00 AM Philadelphia Fed President Harker (FOMC voter) speaks: </strong>Philadelphia Federal Reserve will give a speech at a conference jointly hosted by Philly Fed and the Journal of Economics and Business on “Fintech: The Impact on Consumers, Banking, and Regulatory Policy”. Audience and media Q&amp;A is expected.</li> <li><strong>8:30 AM Personal income, August (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.4%); Personal spending, August (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.1%, last +0.3%); PCE price index, August (GS +0.26%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Core PCE price index, August (GS +0.16%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.1%); PCE price index (yoy), August (GS +1.47%, consensus +1.5%, last +1.4%); Core PCE price index (yoy), August (GS +1.34%, consensus +1.4%, last +1.4%):</strong> We estimate a 0.3% increase in August personal spending (nominal, mom sa), reflecting weakness in retail spending and utilities consumption likely related to Hurricane Harvey, partially offset by higher gas prices. Based on details in the PPI and CPI reports, we estimate that the core PCE price index increased 0.16% month-over-month in August, or +1.34% from a year earlier. Additionally, we expect that the headline PCE price index gained 0.26% in August, or +1.47% from a year earlier. We estimate a 0.3% increase in personal income.</li> <li><strong>09:45 AM Chicago PMI, September (GS 59.5, consensus 58.7, last 58.9):</strong> Incoming regional manufacturing surveys have been better than expected in September, and we expect the Chicago PMI to rebound 0.6pt to 59.5 in the September report after a flat reading in July.</li> <li><strong>10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, September final (GS 95.1, consensus 95.3, last 95.3):</strong> We expect the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to edge down 0.2pt to 95.1 in the final September estimate, reflecting sequential softness in higher frequency consumer surveys. The preliminary report’s measure of 5- to 10-year ahead inflation expectations rose one-tenth to 2.6% in the preliminary reading, the top of its 12-month range.</li> </ul> <p><em>Source: BofA, DB, Goldman</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="599" height="291" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/weekly%20preview%20teaser%203.jpg?1506345358" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/weeks-key-events-european-inflation-us-capex-and-non-stop-fed-speakers#comments Atlanta Fed Atlanta Federal Reserve Atlanta Press Club Bank of England Bank of England Bank of Japan Board of Governors BOE Boston Fed Boston Federal Reserve Business Case-Shiller Census Bureau Chicago Fed Chicago Federal Reserve Chicago PMI China Cleveland Fed Cleveland Fed Cleveland Federal Reserve Conference Board Conference Board Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence Consumer Sentiment Continuing Claims Core CPI Core inflation CPI Czech Dallas Fed Dallas Fed Economic Club Economics Economy European Central Bank European Union Eurozone Federal Open Market Committee Federal Reserve Federal Reserve System Florida France Germany Inflation Initial Jobless Claims International Monetary Fund Italy Janet Yellen Janet Yellen Japan Jim Reid Kansas City Fed Kansas City Federal Reserve M3 Macroeconomics Mexico Michigan Minneapolis Fed Minneapolis Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Money Supply National Association for Business Economics Neel Kashkari New Home Sales New York City New York Fed New York Fed New York Federal Reserve Ohio Onondaga Community College in Syracuse Personal Consumption Personal consumption expenditures price index Personal Income Philadelphia Fed Philadelphia Federal Reserve Philly Fed Price indices Public finance recovery Richmond Fed S&P/Case the University of Michigan Trade Balance Trade Deficit U.S. Census Bureau UK Labour Party Unemployment University Of Michigan University of Michigan Washington D.C. Wholesale Inventories William Dudley Mon, 25 Sep 2017 13:16:50 +0000 Tyler Durden 604117 at http://www.zerohedge.com "How Much Further?": Goldman Warns This Is The 5th Longest Streak Ever Without A 5% Correction http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/how-much-further-goldman-warns-5th-longest-streak-ever-without-5-correction <p>Goldman is becoming increasingly worried that a correction - and a sizable one at that - appears imminent.</p> <p>Two weeks after the investment bank <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-16/should-we-be-worried-goldman-asks-its-bear-market-indicator-shows-crash-dead-ahead">announced </a>that according to its Bear Market Risk Indicator the odds of a <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-16/should-we-be-worried-goldman-asks-its-bear-market-indicator-shows-crash-dead-ahead">crash have risen to 67</a>%...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/bear%20market%20risk.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/bear%20market%20risk_0.jpg" width="500" height="359" /></a></p> <p>... on Monday morning, Goldman cross-asset strategist Ian Wright cautions in his latest Kickstart letter that <strong>the S&amp;P is now rapidly closing in on the longest period in history without a 5% correction, and that as of today, only 4 times in history has more time passed without a 5% correction. </strong>The warning follows similar caution from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin who as discussed yesterday, has a very bleak outlook for US stocks, and expects the S&amp;P to slid to 2,400 by the end of the year, remain unchanged through the end of 2018 and rise just 100 points by the end of 2019. </p> <p>As Wright points out today in a note titled "<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>How much further?</strong></span>" in which he reminds the firm's clients that just last week it reiterated its <strong>12-month OW equities position in our asset allocation</strong>, "our sense is that most clients are in agreement, being "reluctantly long" equity given absolute returns are likely to be lower in the future relative to the recent past, but on a relative basis the asset class still appears the most attractive." </p> <p>And yet, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/one-question-goldmans-clients-are-asking-week-where-here">just like Kostin yesterday</a>, Wright says that given this positioning and the good level of current growth leading to concerns about it potentially slowing, "<strong>increasingly the most common question we receive is "when will the market crack?" </strong>He goes on to show that <strong>based purely on the length and resilience of the current bull market this question makes sense, particularly now - the S&amp;P 500 is currently in the fifth longest streak in history without a 5% correction, and should the pattern continue it will become the longest streak ever by mid-December</strong>.</p> <p>That said, Goldman - tactically long equities - is not suggesting a crash is imminent, and caveats that "low volatility rallies can last a long time, and that valuations can be a poor signal for returns and drawdowns in the near-term." </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>In our view, these dynamics are again at play currently, with any vol being sold on spikes and dips being bought quickly, as the current low vol regime appears intact. </strong></p> </blockquote> <p><strong></strong>So in light of all the evidence of an imminent correction, what is Goldman's advice to clients? Why, do nothing of course. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Our US equity strategists recently argued against an imminent correction, and our global equity strategist sees low risk of a bear market starting. And while most of the recent central bank meetings (ECB, BoE, Fed) all pointed to tightening policy, we think risky assets should be able to digest higher yields as long as the growth backdrop remains supportive, which we expect. </p> </blockquote> <p>This, despite two weeks ago laying out no less than 7 reasons why Goldman's clients just can't wait to get out.</p> <ul> <li><strong>History. </strong>Many investors argue the bull market is “long in the tooth” and will soon come to an end. </li> <li><strong>Volatility </strong>(or lack thereof). Realized 3-month vol is nearly the lowest in 50 years. Implied vol as measured by the VIX stands at 12, a 6th percentile event since 1990.</li> <li><strong>Valuation. </strong>Equity valuations are stretched on almost every metric. The typical stock trades at the 98th percentile and the overall index at the 87th percentile relative to the past 40 years</li> <li><strong>Economics. </strong>The current US economic expansion just celebrated its 8th birthday making it one of the longest stretches without a recession</li> <li><strong>Fed policy. </strong>The FOMC has lifted the funds rate by 100 bp since it started tightening in December 2015. During prior hiking cycles, equity P/E multiples typically fell but multiples have actually expanded during the past two years.</li> <li><strong>Interest rates.</strong> Two months ago, Treasury yields equaled 2.4%, ten-year implied inflation was 1.7%, and the S&amp;P 500 stood at 2410.</li> <li><strong>Politics. </strong>President Trump’s fluid positions on domestic policy disputes in Washington, D.C. and geopolitical gamesmanship with Pyongyang and Beijing make political forecasting a precarious activity.</li> </ul> <p>Meanwhile, the market is now well over 300 days without a 5% correction and counting...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/goldman%20correction%205%25.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/goldman%20correction%205%25_0.jpg" width="500" height="344" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="957" height="578" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/no%20correction.jpg?1506344089" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/how-much-further-goldman-warns-5th-longest-streak-ever-without-5-correction#comments Asset allocation Bear Market BOE Business Corporate finance Equity Equity securities European Central Bank Finance Futures contract Investment management Mathematical finance Money S&P S&P 500 Stock market Technical analysis US Federal Reserve VIX Volatility Washington D.C. Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:52:53 +0000 Tyler Durden 604114 at http://www.zerohedge.com Trump Escalates War With NFL In Early Tweetstorm http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/trump-escalates-war-nfl-early-tweetstorm <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Update:</strong></span>&nbsp; Proving that he was just getting warmed up earlier this morning with his latest rant against the NFL, Trump now seems to want '<strong>#StandForOurAnthem</strong>' to go viral.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="und"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StandForOurAnthem?src=hash">#StandForOurAnthem</a></p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/912301271817838593">September 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>* * *</p> <p>After igniting an NFL firestorm over the weekend with a series of tweetstorms bashing players who refused to stand for the national anthem (something we covered in detail <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/trumps-feud-nfl-escalates-patriots-owner-says-he-deeply-disappointed-presidents-comm">here</a>), Trump is at it again this morning with new tweets highlighting the disgruntled crowds that booed the kneeling players.&nbsp; </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"Many people booed the players who kneeled yesterday (which was a small percentage of total).</strong> These are fans who demand respect for our Flag!"</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"The issue of kneeling has nothing to do with race. <strong>It is about respect for our Country, Flag and National Anthem. NFL must respect this!"</strong></p> </blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Many people booed the players who kneeled yesterday (which was a small percentage of total). These are fans who demand respect for our Flag!</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/912278438127525888">September 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">The issue of kneeling has nothing to do with race. It is about respect for our Country, Flag and National Anthem. NFL must respect this!</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/912280282224525312">September 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Some of the loudest such 'boos' came for the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium when a number of Patriots kneeled for the anthem.</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/baRpukoD8_I" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Meanwhile, Tom Brady responded to Trump's continued attacks this morning saying that he "disagrees" with the President and thinks his tweets are "just divisive."&nbsp; Presumably, that means that Brady is of the opinion that exploiting his star power to make a political statement is not equally divisive?&nbsp; Per <a href="http://www.weei.com/blogs/ryan-hannable/tom-brady-kc-i-certainly-disagree-what-donald-trump-said">WEEI</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>“Yeah, I certainly disagree with what he said. I thought it was just divisive,"</strong> Brady said. "Like I said, I just want to support my teammates. I am never one to say, ‘Oh, that is wrong. That is right.’ I do believe in what I believe in. I believe in bringing people together and respect and love and trust. Those are the values that my parents instilled in me. That is how I try and live every day. I have been blessed to be in locker rooms with guys all over the United States over the course of my career. Some of my great friends are from Florida, Virginia, New York, Montana, Colorado, Texas. The one thing about football is it brings so many guys together — guys you would never have the opportunity to be around. Whether it was in college, and all the way into the pros. We’re all different, we’re all unique. That is what makes us all special.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"Hopefully it brings everyone together. I think that is what unity and love — like I said after the game, those are the things that concern me. When you’re in a locker room full of 53 players, you’re working to a common goal. You support the guys that you play with and you support your coaches, coaches support you. You just do the best you can do.<strong> You’re navigating through life. These things aren’t easy. Everyone deals with different challenges in their life and you respect everyone’s opinions and views. </strong>You don’t have to agree with everything. It’s hard to agree with your own wife on everything from day-to-day. I have so much respect for my teammates and what we’re trying to accomplish. Hopefully we can keep marching toward this end of the season, keep making improvements, get better and win more football games.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Brady said he heard the boo's during and after the anthem</strong> from some in the crowd and said people can do what they want to do.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Yeah, I did," he said. <strong>"No, I think everyone has the right to do whatever they want to do. If you don’t agree, that is fine. You can voice your disagreement, I think that is great. It’s part of our democracy. As long as it is done in a peaceful, respectful way, that is what our country has been all about.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>On the other hand, and not terribly surprisingly, NASCAR's strong condemnation of protesting the national anthem, which Richard Petty said would earn anyone on his team an immediate dismissal, drew praise from the White House.&nbsp; Per the <a href="https://apnews.com/dc7ba43160d049eca3a0460d093ad8e1/The-Latest:-NASCAR-owners-discourage-anthem-protests">Associated Press</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>It appeared no drivers, crew or other team members participated in a protest during the national anthem to start the NASCAR Cup series race Sunday in Loudon, New Hampshire. Several team owners and executives had said they wouldn’t want anyone in their organizations to protest.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Richard Childress, who was Dale Earnhardt’s longtime team owner, said of protesting, “It’ll get you a ride on a Greyhound bus.” Childress says he told his team that “anybody that works for me should respect the country we live in. So many people gave their lives for it. This is America.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Hall of Fame driver Richard Petty’s sentiments took it a step further, saying: <strong>“Anybody that don’t stand up for the anthem oughta be out of the country. Period. What got ’em where they’re at? The United States.”</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>When asked if a protester at Richard Petty Motorsports would be fired, he said, “You’re right.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">So proud of NASCAR and its supporters and fans. They won't put up with disrespecting our Country or our Flag - they said it loud and clear!</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/912276850793213952">September 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, it's only a matter of time until we see if this controversy caused any dips in ratings for the increasingly politicized NFL.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="277" height="132" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170925_nfl.jpg?1506342523" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/trump-escalates-war-nfl-early-tweetstorm#comments American people of German descent Business Donald Trump Florida Greyhound Bus ratings United States White House White House Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:26:34 +0000 Tyler Durden 604111 at http://www.zerohedge.com WTI Hits 4-Month Highs Over $51 Amid Kurdish Referendum Concerns http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/wti-hits-4-month-highs-over-51-amid-kurdish-referendum-concerns <p>For the third time in 10 days, WTI Crude futures broke above $51 (this time running stops back to its highest level since May) amid<strong> growing concerns over the potential reactions to the results of the forthcoming Kurdish independence vote</strong>.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/23/20170925_wti1.jpg"><img height="293" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/23/20170925_wti1_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p><strong>Positive comments from Russia and OPEC over clearing the global glut helped</strong>, but it is the potential for supply disruption from the Kurdish independence vote that is having the most impact on WTI and Brent.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/23/20170925_wti2.jpg"><img height="359" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/23/20170925_wti2_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>President Tayyip Erdogan warned on Monday<strong> Turkey could cut off the pipeline that carries oil from northern Iraq to the outside world</strong>, intensifying pressure on the Kurdish autonomous region over its independence referendum.</p> <p>The Kurds, which make up about one-fifth of Iraq&rsquo;s 38 million people, have long-standing grievances&nbsp;against the government in Baghdad. They won a large degree of autonomy under the post-Saddam Iraqi constitution adopted in 2005, and nationalism has deepened since Kurdish troops scored battlefield successes against Islamic State and brought the city of Kirkuk under their control. Turkey fears the independence vote could set back its own campaign to stamp out a Kurdish insurgency it&rsquo;s been battling for three decades.</p> <p><strong>Erdogan spoke shortly after Prime Minister Binali Yildirum said Ankara could take punitive measures involving borders and air space against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the referendum and would not recognize the outcome.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="2734" height="1335" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170925_wti1.jpg?1506341721" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/wti-hits-4-month-highs-over-51-amid-kurdish-referendum-concerns#comments Central Kurdish Crude Geography of Asia Iranian Kurdistan Iraq Iraqi Kurdistan Kurdish nationalism Kurdish–Turkish conflict Kurdistan Kurdistan independence movement Kurdistan Regional Government Kurdistan Regional Government Kurds Nationalism northern Iraq OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Politics Politics of Iraq Turkey War Western Asia Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:16:13 +0000 Tyler Durden 604110 at http://www.zerohedge.com Republicans Scramble To Revise Obamacare Repeal Bill As Defeat Looms http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/republicans-scramble-retool-obamacare-repeal-bill-crucial-deadline-looms <p>After Texas Senator <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/obamacare-repeal-officially-dead-after-cruz-says-no">Ted Cruz revealed Sunday </a>that he wouldn&rsquo;t support Graham-Cassidy, effectively quashing the Republicans&rsquo; chances of repealing and replacing Obamacare before the crucial Sept. 30 deadline, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/gop-revises-obamacare-repeal-with-bill-headed-to-likely-defeat">Bloomberg reported</a> that the GOP senate leadership was scrambling late Sunday to revise the bill to win support from a small but critical group of holdout senators and secure the 50 votes needed to allow the tie-breaking vote in favor cast by Vice President Mike Pence.</p> <p>Cruz, who had previously said he supported a system of scrapping the Obamacare Medicaid expansion in favor of providing block grants to states, the crux of the Graham-Cassidy, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/obamacare-repeal-officially-dead-after-cruz-says-no">told a crowd in Texas that he had changed his mind</a>, but didn&rsquo;t elaborate as to why. Meanwhile, Senator Rand Paul took to the Sunday shows to reiterate that he&rsquo;s against the bill because he believes block grants would foster infighting over funding between the states.</p> <p>Some of the changes, which come as the Sept. 30 expiration of the fast-track provision that forestalls a Democratic filibuster, are designed to appeal to moderate holdouts like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, while others appeared tailored to lure conservative skeptics like Rand Paul of Kentucky. Trump has vowed to win the support of the Kentucky senator, although some theorize that, since the current system is popular in Paul&rsquo;s home state, that he will invent libertarian-sounding objections to any bill the Republicans present.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/23/2017.09.25grahamcassidy.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/09/23/2017.09.25grahamcassidy_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 284px;" /></a></p> <p><em>Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham</em></p> <p>But even if GOP leadership manages to change a handful of votes, the bill&rsquo;s chances of passing remain low, virtually guaranteeing that the Republicans will be forced to accept the status quo after seven years of campaigning to scrap Obamacare. And although the GOP could still try to resurrect the health-care effort later this year, the effort&rsquo;s collapse will raise serious doubts about Congressional Republicans&rsquo; ability to win legislative battles on behalf of the president.</p> <p>As <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/gop-revises-obamacare-repeal-with-bill-headed-to-likely-defeat">Bloomberg </a>points out, even Trump appeared to concede that the outlook for repeal isn&rsquo;t great, admitting as much during a press conference with reporters.</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;Eventually we will win on that. My primary focus, I must tell you &ndash; has been from the beginning, as you can imagine &ndash; is taxes.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>Indeed, the administration appears to already be ceding ground on taxes after leaked highlights from the bill suggested that Republicans would shoot<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/trump-tax-plan-leaked-includes-tax-cuts-wealthiest-americans-morgan-stanley-skeptica"> for a 20% corporate tax </a>rate after Trump had called for 15%.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the new version of Graham-Cassidy partially tries to win over holdouts by offering more federal funding for their states, including multiple provisions offering more money to Lisa Murkowski, or &ldquo;Lisa M&rdquo;&rsquo;s Alaska. The revised bill also includes changes to controversial provisions about pre-existing conditions coverage.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Under the revised version, states would have to describe how their health plans &quot;shall maintain access to adequate and affordable health insurance coverage for individuals with pre-existing conditions.&quot;</strong> The original language said each state had to show how it &quot;intends&quot; to have adequate and affordable access to coverage.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The bill continues, however, to give states broad new authority to allow insurance companies to provide skimpier plans with far fewer benefits while charging higher premiums to the sick and the old.</p> <p><strong>Under the new version, states could let insurers impose deductibles that are higher than the limits set by the Affordable Care Act, or remove the health law&rsquo;s limits on the costs that an individual family can incur in a year entirely.</strong> They could also offer coverage that lacks some of the ACA&rsquo;s benefits, such as maternity care, prescription drugs or mental health. Plus, states could let insurers widen the gap between how much old people and young people are charged. And states could remove requirements that insurers cover preventive-health treatments and immunizations.</p> </blockquote> <p>Democrats were quick to criticize the bill.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;Despite an attempt to appear to add money for a select few states, this bill is just as bad for those states and the rest of the states because it still contains a massive cut to Medicaid, and would throw our health insurance system into chaos while raising premiums,&rdquo;</strong> Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement late Sunday.</p> </blockquote> <p>The health-care industry, another group that opposes Graham-Cassidy, mobilized on Sunday to convince senators who are on the fence not to vote for the bill.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The bill provoked an unusually strong backlash from the health-care industry as well. Groups representing doctors, hospitals and insurers signed a letter Saturday urging the Senate to reject the Graham-Cassidy bill.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The groups said the bill would undermine protections for patients with pre-existing conditions, result in dramatic cuts to Medicaid and &ldquo;drastically&rdquo; weaken the individual insurance markets. </strong>The letter was signed by the American Medical Association, the American Academy of Family Physicians, the American Hospital Association, and America&rsquo;s Health Insurance Plans, which represents major insurers.</p> </blockquote> <p>Republicans might have another shot at repealing some of Obamacare&rsquo;s more controversial provisions later this year when they adopt a budget resolution that could allow room for Obamacare repeal provisions, although trying to combine the two complicated policies might make the overall package even harder to pass.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch of Utah said last week that there&rsquo;s a &ldquo;chance&rdquo; of pairing taxes with health-care provisions. &ldquo;But it&rsquo;s not easy,&rdquo; he added.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Mitch McConnell still needs to decide whether to call for a vote on Graham-Cassidy.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>McConnell still has to decide whether to go through with a vote, which would likely happen Wednesday. </strong>While Trump has urged GOP leaders to make every possible effort to repeal Obamacare, some Republicans will be reluctant to take a vote on a bill that many privately are uncomfortable with.</p> </blockquote> <p>A CBO analysis of the bill is expected later Monday.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office will release a partial analysis of the Graham-Cassidy proposal as early as Monday. </strong>It will examine the proposal&rsquo;s impact on the federal deficit, but a full review of the effect on U.S. health coverage and costs won&rsquo;t be ready for weeks. The Senate Finance Committee will hold the only hearing on the bill Monday afternoon, and it doesn&rsquo;t plan to vote on the measure. Senate Republicans will have a private lunchtime meeting Tuesday, where GOP leaders can make a last plea for support.</p> </blockquote> <p>The Brookings Institution estimated Friday that the Graham-Cassidy plan would reduce the number of people with health coverage by about 21 million a year from 2020 through 2026. The good news is that for all the twists and turns in this ongoing process, the fate of Obamacare repeal should be sealed by mid-week.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="599" height="340" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.09.25grahamcassidy.JPG?1506336728" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/republicans-scramble-retool-obamacare-repeal-bill-crucial-deadline-looms#comments 111th United States Congress 115th United States Congress American Academy of Family Physicians American Hospital Association American Medical Association American Presbyterians Bill Cassidy Brookings Institution Congressional Budget Office Donald Trump Federal Deficit GOP Senate Graham-Cassidy Insurance Companies Internal Revenue Code Lisa Murkowski Mitch McConnell Obamacare Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Politics Politics Rand Paul Republican Party Republicans Senate Finance Committee Social Issues United States Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:10:50 +0000 Tyler Durden 604105 at http://www.zerohedge.com Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/commodities-king-gartman-says-gold-soon-reach-1400-drums-war-grow-louder <p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/commodities-king-gartman-says-gold-soon-reach-1400-drums-war-grow-louder/">Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder</a></strong></span></span></p> <p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong></strong></span></span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- 'Commodities King' Gartman sees $1,400 gold surge in months<br />- "Gold is the one currency that will do the best of all..."</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Pullback below $1300 "is relatively inconsequential"<br />- Use gold price weakness to be a buyer "no question"</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Bullish on gold due to central banks and easy monetary policy and gold will be even higher in euro terms</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Gold will&nbsp;be the best of all, as a result of QE and expansionary policies</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Dalio reconfirms belief that 'gold serves a purpose' and portfolios should have exposure</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- 'Gold is a diversifying asset' says Dalio</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">-&nbsp;Own allocated, segregated gold in Zurich or Singapore</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Editor Mark O'Byrne</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/commodites-king-gartman.jpg"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/commodites-king-gartman.jpg" width="683" height="388" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11660" /></a><br /></strong>Dennis Gartman has called&nbsp;2017’s gold rally and he&nbsp;is now forecasting gold will be&nbsp;<em>"demonstrably higher"</em>&nbsp;rising to $1,400/oz in the coming months and rise by even more in euro terms.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">In an interview on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/09/21/he-called-2017s-gold-rally-heres-what-dennis-gartman-says-now.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, he said that the recent correction in gold is but a mere pullback prior to much higher prices and&nbsp;<em>"gold is the one currency that will do the best of all."</em></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Earlier this year Dennis Gartman, of the Gartman Letter, successfully called this year's gold rally. In the year-to-date the precious metal is up by nearly 13%, thus outperforming the S&amp;P 500 which is 12% higher.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><em>"A year from now, gold will be demonstrably higher than it is right now...I would certainly think we could see $1400 [an ounce] in dollar terms."</em></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gartman's prediction comes a few days after another respected investor, Ray Dalio, called for gold to be held in portfolios.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Both Gartman and Dalio encourage gold investment as they believe it is an excellent diversifier and will be among the best performing currencies.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Their comments came following an intense week&nbsp;both political and economic developments, across the globe.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Signals from&nbsp;central banks - nothing to see here?</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/money-95793_640.jpg"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/money-95793_640-300x225.jpg" width="300" height="225" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11656" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Last week&nbsp;the U.S. Fed made clear that it is&nbsp;still on track to raise interest rates by the end 2017.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold stumbled&nbsp;as tighter monetary policy is seen to raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This is not a cause for concern, says Gartman:</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>"This is a correction but let's understand the last rally that we had took off from $1200 to $1370. The fact that we've fallen back below $1300 I think is relatively inconsequential,"</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Why is Gartman so bullish on gold?</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>"The monetary authorities are all still remaining expansionary...In that instance, the one currency that will probably do the best of all is gold."</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gartman says this despite the announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve and previous comments from other central banks. Clearly, he argues, balance sheet unwinding is not going to happen immediately.</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>"[It] is going to take five or six years. This is not something that will occur overnight,"</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">As we explained<a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/gold-blog/gold-investment-compelling-fed-debt/">&nbsp;last week</a>&nbsp;following the Fed's announcement, the plan to hike interest rates and reduce the size of its balance sheet does not make for a happy ending.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">According to 100 years’ worth of data (provided by&nbsp;Incrementum Capital Partners via Frank Holmes), increased rates and a reduction in the balance sheet&nbsp;has&nbsp;historically preceded recessions.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">A recession would likely kill the business cycle. Frank Holmes explains why this makes a case for&nbsp;<a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/our-services/secure-storage-bullion-ireland/">holding gold in your portfolio</a>:</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>Gold has historically shared a very low to negative correlation with stocks. Consider 2008, the height of the financial crisis: US stocks ended the year down more than 37 percent, while gold held its value, returning 3.4 percent.</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">So it is not surprising that Dennis Gartman remains bullish on gold. For the next five-to-six years the Federal Reserve, along with the Bank of England and European Central Bank (to name a few), will be seeking to do the impossible - undo all of their decade-long decisions without screwing up the economy even more.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The case for gold is clearly strong in the long-term, and just as much&nbsp;so in the short-term thanks to a certain 'dotard' and 'Rocket Man'.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>North Korea thinks Donald Trump is mentally deranged...</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/trump-2327493_640.jpg"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/trump-2327493_640-251x300.jpg" width="251" height="300" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11655" /></a></p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>“Just heard Foreign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man, they won’t be around much longer!”&nbsp;</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Whilst markets' concerns over North Korea have apparently lessened over the weekend, the last week has been full of machismo demonstrations from both sides.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold had a bit of a take-down following the Federal Reserve meeting however North Korea's threats to test another hydrogen bomb, promptly increased support for the safe haven.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">President Trump unimpressed UN attendees last week, referring to Kim Jong-Un as a the 'Rocket Man on a suicide mission'. In response the North Korean Foreign Minister told the UN Trump was&nbsp;"mentally deranged person full of megalomania" and also on a "suicide mission".</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The U.S. decided a fly by of U.S. bombers would be a good way to demonstrate 'strength' whilst the North Koreans marched on Pyongyang against President Trump.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold plays a significant role during times of political and economic uncertainty. Whilst many argue that the war-of-words between the US and North Korea is nothing new, this is the first time we have seen actions escalate to this level.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Those who believe this is nothing new are perhaps assume things will ease off between the American 'dotard' and the North Korean despot.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">When you look back at various events between 1976 and 2009 that have prompted a cause for concern for regarding North Korea, the gold price has declined.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This year however we have seen the price rally. This is because there are many positive factors in the gold market but also because the stakes are higher. &nbsp;With each tweet, statement, military demonstration and rocket test, the uncertainty increases significantly.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We have not been in a situation when a U.S. President is able to broadcast his thoughts with immediate effect to the world (including his enemy). Nor have we ever known North Korea to have the military capabilities it is so keen to demonstrate.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold thrives on uncertainty.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>We are certain about the uncertainty&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We are at an interesting juncture.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Data tells us that it is highly unlikely that central banks will successfully unwind without causing harm to the global economy.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Data also tells us that&nbsp;<a href="http://info.goldcore.com/gold-is-a-safe-haven-asset" target="_blank">gold performs well as a safe haven</a>&nbsp;during times of war and geopolitical upheaval.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">However, there is no data to tell us how everything will play out. This is where uncertainty comes in.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Central banks are going to start unwinding, but we do not know how badly it will go wrong. North Korea will continue to try to destabilise the region and&nbsp;the U.S. but we do not know how far they will be allowed to get.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold will perform well in the coming months. If you want to be certain of its protection in a world of uncertainty, then you should own physical gold - allocated and segregated coins and bars - in the safest vaults, in the safest jurisdictions in the world.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Important guides to storage in Singapore and Switzerland:</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><strong><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-singapore">Essential Guide to Storing Gold In Singapore<br /></a></strong></strong><strong><a href="http://info.goldcore.com/essential-guide-to-storing-gold-in-switzerland">Essential Guide to Storing Gold In Switzerland</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>News and&nbsp;Commentary</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-24/euro-weaker-with-kiwi-dollar-as-politics-dominate-markets-wrap">Euro, Stocks Drops After German Vote; Oil Dips: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/metals-morning-view-gold-prices-looking-support/">Gold prices looking for support (BullionDesk.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-trump-proclamation/trump-slaps-travel-restrictions-on-north-korea-venezuela-in-sweeping-new-ban-idUSKCN1BZ13Y">Trump slaps travel restrictions on North Korea, Venezuela in sweeping new ban (Reuters.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/china-metals-gold/gold-companies-take-a-shine-to-chinas-silk-road-idUSL4N1M5089">Gold companies take a shine to China’s Silk Road (Reuters.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41383100">Sri Lankan arrested with nearly 1kg of gold in his rectum (BBC.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/eu-stock-volumes-lowest-since-tech-bubble.png" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/09/eu-stock-volumes-lowest-since-tech-bubble.png" width="1474" height="906" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" /></a>&nbsp;European stock volumes lowest since tech bubble. Source: Bloomberg</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/24/gold-to-hit-1400-in-months-dont-let-this-correction-spook-you-says-dennis-gartman.html">'Commodities king' Gartman sees gold surging to $1400 within months (CNBC.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://kingworldnews.com/james-turk-here-is-the-big-surprise-in-the-gold-market/">After 2-Week Takedown In Gold And Silver, Here Is The Big Surprise - Turk (KingWorldNews.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://dailyreckoning.com/bitcoin-bubble/">Bitcoin Is A Bubble says Rickards but What Causing and For How Long? (DailyReckoning.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://stansberrychurchouse.com/global-investing/worried-october-effect/">Should you be worried about the “October effect”? (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-24/if-amazon-takes-over-world">If Amazon Takes Over The World... (ZeroHedge.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Gold Prices (LBMA AM)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">25 Sep: USD 1,295.50, GBP 957.89 &amp; EUR 1,089.26 per ounce<br />22 Sep: USD 1,297.00, GBP 956.15 &amp; EUR 1,082.09 per ounce<br />21 Sep: USD 1,297.35, GBP 960.56 &amp; EUR 1,089.00 per ounce<br />20 Sep: USD 1,314.90, GBP 970.53 &amp; EUR 1,094.79 per ounce<br />19 Sep: USD 1,308.45, GBP 969.30 &amp; EUR 1,091.25 per ounce<br />18 Sep: USD 1,314.40, GBP 970.16 &amp; EUR 1,100.68 per ounce<br />15 Sep: USD 1,325.00, GBP 977.32 &amp; EUR 1,109.16 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Silver Prices (LBMA)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">25 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.57 &amp; EUR 14.27 per ounce<br />22 Sep: USD 16.97, GBP 12.52 &amp; EUR 14.18 per ounce<br />21 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.58 &amp; EUR 14.24 per ounce<br />20 Sep: USD 17.38, GBP 12.84 &amp; EUR 14.48 per ounce<br />19 Sep: USD 17.15, GBP 12.70 &amp; EUR 14.31 per ounce<br />18 Sep: USD 17.53, GBP 12.94 &amp; EUR 14.66 per ounce<br />15 Sep: USD 17.70, GBP 13.03 &amp; EUR 14.81 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><br />Recent Market Updates</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/bitcoin-bubble-gold-money-says-worlds-biggest-hedge-fund-manager/">-&nbsp;Bitcoin “Is A Bubble” but Gold Is Money Says World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Manager</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/pensions-debt-time-bomb-uk-1-trillion-crisis-looms/">-&nbsp;Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-investment-compelling-fed-may-kill-business-cycle/">-&nbsp;Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed May “Kill The Business Cycle”</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/next-financial-crisis-will-come-deutsche-bank/">-&nbsp;“This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From” – Deutsche Bank</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/global-debt-bubble-understated-13-trillion-warn-bis/">-&nbsp;Global Debt Bubble Understated By $13 Trillion Warn BIS</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/bitcoin-price-falls-40-3-days-underlining-golds-safe-haven-credentials/">-&nbsp;Bitcoin Price Falls 40% In 3 Days Underlining Gold’s Safe Haven Credentials</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-markets-fatigued-war-talk-boils/">-&nbsp;Gold Up, Markets Fatigued As War Talk Boils Over</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/oil-rich-venezuela-stops-accepting-dollars/">-&nbsp;Oil Rich Venezuela Stops Accepting Dollars</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/massive-equifax-hack-shows-cyber-risk-deposits-investments-today/">-&nbsp;Massive Equifax Hack Shows Cyber Risk to Deposits and Investments Today</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/british-people-suddenly-stopped-buying-cars/">-&nbsp;British People Suddenly Stopped Buying Cars</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/buy-gold-long-term-fiat-money-doomed/">-&nbsp;Buy Gold for Long Term as “Fiat Money Is Doomed”</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/conor-mcgregor-worth-weight-gold/">-&nbsp;Conor McGregor – Worth His Weight In Gold?</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-2-weekly-gain18-higher-ytd-trumps-debt-ceiling-deal-hurts-dollar/">-&nbsp;Gold Has 2% Weekly Gain,18% Higher YTD – Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal Hurts Dollar</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Important&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956il">Guides</span></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For your perusal, below are our&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">most</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">popular</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">guides</span>&nbsp;in 2017:</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*N5MhbFRBkTqXW95dlRy194d-P0/5/f18dQhb0S5ft8X-f1rW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1ZW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHmp3PnStQVS9p0b63dhWbW8mp0Tc5x5KNkW7-XB_567h1CPW8r5PXz49z-4PN2MV0Xm5w8jDW1mw3yc59SFsZN4H-tjrQC5z2VPC2cV7gvpc4W4XYhBl2y9PQJW4sxqtN7h5hQFW28TbSB2Cg_LLW96LzRy5DkRJDW5BRXXj2y4Lc7N3Kd2SV_-Nf6W3brNsz66rKFTW2xH0xz1lcG1VVQBGcH5DQdGhN22JjmzdPgQwW9464-Y5GFs9DW4Rj6Nh6BzJrnN45Ly2MkwRN4W8qYMH51FnsVDW2X9_p02MVHnbN2GZdYq215_BW1J7MZd3mgJK7W4F32xR1JjtM5W4Bn5JG3ZzLH2W5jL56q7dkHC7W3VtW1b1MWhN-W1MKd944yqBfl111" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Switzerland</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W5Hh19S2J1j6jW1gxPj45yTRLt0/5/f18dQhb0S5fw8X-fbXW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1YW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHjG25x99KVwyMQc6PVJWyW625bx16Gj8TSW6bVy-525hjVhW83KHrF7J39qHN2m8DqKmmF0wW1jsTjn5VDnrHVbq5fx4TKc2lW6Rjg6t5Pk17jW2xZzRk8LpcPpW36k5sF4FnHNZW1mvfQB2BpzSjN1mT8mr2g4dYW5VZ-P_37vq3BW2--Tfh1w3GzfW5CkFpW6ZccdyW5vvKY_3N2S6fW3KRSNH8yxr7CW7YJp821cQlwRW63x06S1bBvW3W408wWR11rnNbV4Vjkz6NjfdLW55Fr2P5nn1d6W301cwV4GX00sW5hfR428jJDdkW4Cy2w54wj2JxVMFy4w4hyJQMV6N2-D1mPRd4N6YRN0Y4ZDMLD2LMBk7BT1f5Fq5PC03" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Singapore</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W7dc5x_8dXcz0W57pb-W8yRfPY0/5/f18dQhb0Sjv98X-fhGW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrBCVW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z0sTg7mCbb0W57V1HT7tVHF9W8Z32tg35s628W859LV685kgn-W5mG2963qCNtmW8hTG4j5Zh496W2d551v3pNnKLVLrb9R83_Pn-W7JCxGl81bhDKW7N_KqM11GBXTW41TlcR3TwTqzW19BjML1ks0KjW7RPZVs5-2sjBW7ZzDyK7GLjPjW2KH_vB6SdpRZW1hx1p11Gg3W9W6rwy5K1YZKs5W2gFslL6NqPjwW1tbMwf7n90PHW67SS1j224DVBW6SdFBY1S1FW8W1Th1-Q1X2dwGW1swLvy81myPRW1B9M4Q6SdHPtW7C3gqS89xKZ9W1Ms6WG19gjwJN42ktpLPs031VgkKmy5qqk_FW41Q13s3srYmmW2-yGlm4v9PYhVmLW2J4r5l5jW7fnqv3187HWVW794lJw3T7yBDW1Zq0mT90vVQHW7SNfQy7BfhjRN3QzSrFQN_TjVcGblm3cFvNY0" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/commodities-king-gartman-says-gold-soon-reach-1400-drums-war-grow-louder#comments Bank of England Bank of England BIS Bitcoin Bitcoin Business Central Banks Debt Ceiling Dennis Gartman Deutsche Bank Donald Trump Economic bubble European Central Bank European Central Bank Federal Reserve Finance Global Economy Gold Gold as an investment Investment KIM London bullion market Monetary Policy Money North Korea Precious metals Ray Dalio Recession Reuters S&P 500 Silver as an investment Sovereigns Switzerland United Nations US Fed US Federal Reserve Zurich Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:59:17 +0000 GoldCore 604109 at http://www.zerohedge.com Frontrunning: September 25 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/frontrunning-september-25 <ul> <li>Merkel’s Bloc Regroups After ‘Nightmare Victory’ in Germany (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/merkel-s-bloc-regroups-after-nightmare-victory-in-germany">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Germany’s Election Results Reflect European Unease on Economy, Immigration (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/german-results-reflect-european-unease-over-identity-economy-1506288918">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Chastened Merkel looks for coalition partners after vote (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-election/chastened-merkel-looks-for-coalition-partners-after-vote-idUSKCN1C0096">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Jews around world concerned by far-right breakthrough in German election (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-election-antisemitism/jews-around-world-concerned-by-far-right-breakthrough-in-german-election-idUSKCN1BZ0SI?il=0">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Iraqi Kurds Vote in Independence Referendum (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/iraqi-kurds-vote-in-independence-referendum-despite-warnings-from-baghdad-u-s-1506328499">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>GOP Revises Obamacare Repeal With Bill Headed to Likely Defeat (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/gop-revises-obamacare-repeal-with-bill-headed-to-likely-defeat">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Trump Tax Plan to Cut Taxes for Corporations and Wealthy (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/trump-tax-plan-said-to-cut-taxes-for-wealthy-and-whack-ny-and-nj">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Trump’s Revised Travel Ban Opens New Stage in Legal Fight&nbsp; (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/trump-s-revised-travel-ban-opens-new-stage-in-legal-fight">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Trump’s War With NFL Threatens to Overshadow Rollout of Tax Plan (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/trump-s-war-with-nfl-threatens-to-overshadow-rollout-of-tax-plan">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Trump’s NFL Anthem Crusade Angers Big Campaign Donors&nbsp; (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/trump-s-nfl-anthem-crusade-angers-billionaire-campaign-donors">BBG</a>)</li> <li>China Eyeing Rule Change That Could Aid Tesla (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-eyeing-rule-change-that-could-aid-tesla-1506331805">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Springsteen Tickets Hit $10,000, and Wall Street Gets Scalped&nbsp; (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/springsteen-tickets-hit-10-000-and-wall-street-gets-scalped">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Equifax’s Massive Hack Has a Tiny Silver Lining&nbsp; (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/equifax-s-massive-hack-has-a-tiny-silver-lining">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Colleges Move to Close Gender Gap in Science (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/colleges-move-to-close-gender-gap-in-science-1506331801">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>iPhone Disappointment Hammers Suppliers (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/iphone-disappointment-hammers-suppliers-fuels-taiwan-outflows">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Funding Tesla Annoys Automakers That Need Electric Car Credits (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/funding-tesla-ticks-off-automakers-needing-electric-car-credits">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Department Stores Cling to Power Over Landlords on Mall Upgrades (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/department-stores-cling-to-power-over-landlords-on-mall-upgrades">BBG</a>)</li> <li>In World’s Hottest Oil Patch, Jitters Mount That a Bust Is Near (<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-09-25/in-world-s-hottest-oil-patch-jitters-mount-that-a-bust-is-near">BBG</a>)</li> <li>GE Agrees to Sell Industrial Unit to ABB for $2.6 Billion (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-agrees-to-sell-industrial-unit-to-abb-for-2-6-billion-1506321704">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Activist Funds Seek Ouster of Tuesday Morning CEO (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/activist-funds-seek-ouster-of-tuesday-morning-ceo-1506312241">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Unilever to Buy Korean Skin-Care Firm for $2.7 Billion (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/unilever-to-buy-korean-skin-care-firm-for-2-7-billion-1506326238">WSJ</a>)</li> </ul> <p><strong>Overnight Media Digest</strong></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">WSJ</span></em></p> <p>- President Donald Trump on Sunday issued a new ban on entry to the U.S. that applies a range of restrictions on nationals from eight countries, including new targets Chad, North Korea and Venezuela. on.wsj.com/2fpx1ay</p> <p>- Uber Technologies Inc is pushing to meet the London regulator which on Friday said it would refuse to reissue the ride-hailing company's operating license there. on.wsj.com/2xpal19</p> <p>- Two investment funds are calling for new leadership at Tuesday Morning Corp, the latest in a series of activist campaigns targeting chief executives. on.wsj.com/2xpjsPq</p> <p>- Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative alliance won the German election, but a steep drop in its support and an anti-immigrant party's surge signaled political turbulence ahead for Europe's largest economy. on.wsj.com/2frWa4G</p> <p>- Donald Trump's son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner has used a personal email account to correspond with colleagues in the White House, his attorney confirmed on Sunday. on.wsj.com/2fri6fY</p> <p>- Senate Republican leaders appeared to face a difficult path to reviving their repeal of the Affordable Care Act, after Senator Susan Collins of Maine said she could not envision voting for the bill. on.wsj.com/2wMeLzP</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">FT</span></em></p> <p>Uber Technologies Inc said it was willing to discuss how to better support police investigations and to strengthen official reporting procedures for private hire companies, in an attempt to resolve the issues that prompted Transport for London to revoke its licence to operate in London.</p> <p>In one of the most high-profile prosecutions ever brought by the Serious Fraud Office, three former Tesco Plc will stand trial on Monday for their alleged role in an accounting scandal in which Tesco was found to have inflated its profit by 326 million pounds ($440 million) in 2014.</p> <p>UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn was accused of making Labour a “laughing stock” by an MP from his party after Corbyn used his support group Momentum to prevent delegates at the annual conference from getting a vote on Brexit — even as he claimed to be making the party more democratic.</p> <p>The Labour Party’s John McDonnell will on Monday introduce a policy to put a cap on credit card interest payments to tackle Britain’s debt crisis, a measure that would be similar to restrictions imposed on payday lenders by the Financial Conduct Authority.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">NYT</span></em></p> <p>- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is shifting its law enforcement strategy and expects to increasingly look to banks and other financial institutions to come clean on their own about misconduct and problems in the market. nyti.ms/2fJWw3d</p> <p>- U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday issued a new order indefinitely banning almost all travel to the United States from seven countries including most citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Chad and North Korea. nyti.ms/2xzbkeF</p> <p>- The revised version of the health bill, authored by Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, would provide extra money for an unnamed "high-spending low-density state," a last-minute change seemingly aimed at Alaska and its holdout Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, who has yet to say how she will vote. nyti.ms/2wgfS6m</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Canada</span></em></p> <p>THE GLOBE AND MAIL</p> <p>** Canadian authorities have started to collaborate with their Swedish counterparts in the continuing corruption investigation into Bombardier Inc's $340-million contract to sell railway equipment in Azerbaijan. tgam.ca/2hs3Lgz</p> <p>** Donald Trump's unpredictable personality and hostile opposition to free trade is looming over NAFTA talks as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his negotiating team remain uncertain as to what the U.S. President wants from a reformed pact, or whether he would even sign a deal and risk alienating his base. tgam.ca/2htFTZU</p> <p>** In a survey of 53 companies conducted by Nanos Research for the American Chamber of Commerce, U.S.-headquartered firms operating in Canada said their biggest concerns about the bilateral trading relationship involve U.S. protectionism. tgam.ca/2htkfVI</p> <p>NATIONAL POST</p> <p>** More than half of Canadians think rising interest rates will negatively impact their personal finances, but only about a quarter of them have an emergency fund to deal with any potential hardship according to a new poll by Forum Research Inc. bit.ly/2hsc5Ah</p> <p></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Britain</span></em></p> <p>The Times</p> <p>The credibility of an expert witness put up by the pharmaceuticals industry has been shot down by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in a legal row over drugs pricing, according to court papers obtained by the Times. bit.ly/2fKKoix</p> <p>A row over a confidential regulatory report into the activities of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's restructuring division has descended into farce after television presenter Noel Edmonds claimed to have a copy. bit.ly/2fKtwse</p> <p>The Guardian</p> <p>Royal Bank of Scotland has postponed plans to introduce a cut-price credit card amid concerns about the 200 billion-pound of lending amassed by UK households. bit.ly/2fKbFSa</p> <p>UK's antislavery body has launched 185 investigations since May, nearly double its total for the whole of last year, after assuming powers that allow it to look beyond the food and farming sector. bit.ly/2fKA3Dq</p> <p>The Telegraph</p> <p>The boss of the Chinese-backed private equity firm behind a proposed 550 million pound ($743 million) takeover of Imagination Technologies Plc is already eyeing further acquisition opportunities in UK. bit.ly/2fKI7nF</p> <p>The pay gap between male and female managers is worsening with women earning an average 12,000 pounds less than their male colleagues, according to figures from the Chartered Management Institute and XpertHR. bit.ly/2fIBphN</p> <p>Sky News</p> <p>Carlyle, the buyout firm&lrm; whose British investments include the RAC breakdown service, is close to entering a period of exclusivity during which it would seek to conclude a takeover of tobacco supplier Palmer &amp; Harvey. bit.ly/2fK52zg</p> <p>U.S. taxi firm Uber Technologies Inc could stay on the road if it met the "reasonable" demands set out by Transport for London, senior Labour frontbencher Diane Abbott has said. bit.ly/2fKD6vk</p> <p>The Independent</p> <p>Britain's Labour Party is to announce plans for a broad cap on the total interest anyone can pay to a credit card company, potentially helping some three million Britons trapped in a debt spiral. ind.pn/2fKcGJX </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/frontrunning-september-25#comments American Chamber of Commerce Bitly Business Carlyle Chartered Management Institute China Commodity Futures Trading Commission Corruption Donald Trump Donald Trump Economy of the United States Financial Conduct Authority Germany Industrial Unit Iran Labour Party National Football League National Institute for Health North Korea Obamacare Politics Private Equity Republican Party Reuters Royal Bank of Scotland Serious Fraud Office Serious Fraud Office Somalia South Carolina Transport U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Uber White House White House XpertHR Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:58:01 +0000 Tyler Durden 604108 at http://www.zerohedge.com Worried About Demand, Apple Tells iPhone X Suppliers To Slow Down Component Delivery http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/apple-tells-iphone-x-suppliers-slow-down-component-delivery <p>Following an embarrassingly dull rollout of the iPhone 8 last week, Apple's woes may be spreading to its flagship gizmo for the current product cycle, the iPhone X. </p> <p>As <a href="http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20170925PD200.html">Digitimes reports</a>, Tim Cook's company has instructed component suppliers to "withhold part of the component shipments prepared for the production of iPhone X devices" according to unidentified Taiwan-based upstream suppliers. </p> <p>The reason for the delay is that Apple is waiting to see the pre-sale orders of the iPhone X as well as the sales performance of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus before pushing the production of iPhone X into full gear, said the sources.</p> <p>The sources explain that iPhone X component suppliers are currently shipping parts and products that amount to <strong>only about 40% of the quantities originally planned for the initial production of iPhone X. </strong>However, despite the instruction for shipment slowdown, some suppliers still need to step up production to meet the 40% requirement due to low yield rates at their production lines, the sources indicated. Apple is said to have adopted the same strategy previously for iPhone 7 in 2016 - a phone which met with lackluster demand - during which initial shipments of parts and components reached only about 60% of the materials originally required by the vendor, with sources adding that Apple pulled in the remaining 40% of orders 1-2 months later.</p> <p>Meanwhile, as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-25/iphone-disappointment-hammers-suppliers-fuels-taiwan-outflows">Bloomberg reports this morning</a>, in a double-whammy for Apple suppliers, their stocks have gotten hit in recent days on what is perceived as market disappointment with the company's latest product offering: on Monday Hon Hai fell 2.8 percent in Taipei, while Pegatron slumped 4.4 percent. TSMC dropped for a third day. AAC Technologies Holdings Inc., another supplier, retreated 6.7 percent in Hong Kong, and GoerTek Inc. capped its biggest loss since July 3 in China’s Shenzhen.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which assembles the iPhone and other Apple devices, has fallen 10 percent in Taipei since Apple unveiled its collection of new gadgets for the holidays this month. Other suppliers across the region, including Taiwan’s Pegatron Corp. and South Korea’s LG Innotek Co. have plunged more than 12 percent. Taiwan’s $1.1 trillion equity market is particularly exposed to the swinging fortunes of Apple products, due to the dominance of parts manufacturers. Hon Hai and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Apple’s main chip-maker, together make up a quarter of the Taiex total weighting, while exports account for more than half of the island’s gross domestic product.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>"Orders of the new IPhone have disappointed the market and foreign investors may continue net selling Taiwan stocks</strong>," said Alan Tseng, Taipei-based vice president at Capital Investment Management. "The retreat of Apple suppliers has pulled down the benchmark index and could drag the index even lower in the coming month.</p> <p>As a reminder, a channel check conducted last week by Rosenblatt Securities found that iPhone 8 pre-orders are "substantially lower" than iPhone 7 and iPhone 6 levels, with initial feedback suggesting that iPhone 8 volume is below predecessors in the U.S. and even more so in China.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1280" height="600" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/iphone%20x.jpg?1506338926" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/apple-tells-iphone-x-suppliers-slow-down-component-delivery#comments Apple Apple Inc. Business China Computing Foxconn Gross Domestic Product Hong Kong IOS IPhone Linksys iPhone Shenzhen Taiex Technology Technology TSMC Video Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:29:33 +0000 Tyler Durden 604107 at http://www.zerohedge.com Abe Announces Japan Snap Election, Will Face New Challenger http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/abe-announces-japan-snap-election-will-face-new-challenger <p>As if the just concluded German elections, and the upcoming referendums in Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan were not enough, here comes Japan. </p> <p>Shortly following <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-abe/japan-pm-abe-plans-to-compile-2-trillion-yen-stimulus-package-yomiuri-idUSKCN1BZ132">Sunday night reports </a>that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to launch a new economic stimulus package of around 2 trillion yen ($17.8 billion) by the end of this year, which sent the Yen sliding to session lows and the USDJPY rising as high as 112.50 before fading the entire move, on Monday the Japanese premier confirmed recent rumors when he said he would dissolve parliament’s lower house on Thursday for a snap election, as he seeks a fresh mandate to overcome “a national crisis”. Abe, in power for five years with the success of his famous Abenomics always just beyond reach, said he needed a mandate <strong>to shift some revenues from a planned future tax hike to social spending such as education, besides seeking support for a tough stance toward North Korea’s repeated missile and nuclear tests.</strong> </p> <p>“I will dissolve the lower house on Sept. 28,” Abe told a nationally televised news conference on Monday <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-election/japans-abe-announces-snap-election-amid-worries-over-north-korea-crisis-idUSKCN1C0001">according to Reuters</a>. Earlier, the head of Abe’s junior coalition partner, Natsuo Yamaguchi, said he understood the election would be held on Oct. 22.</p> <p>The decision is aimed to take advantage of Abe’s recently surge in favorable ratings following a crash in support for Abe as early as two months ago as a result of ongoing corruption scandals in his party, as well as ongoing opposition disarray. The main opposition Democratic Party is struggling with single-digit ratings and much depends on whether it can cooperate with liberal opposition groups. </p> <p>Abe’s image as a strong leader has bolstered his ratings amid rising tension over North Korea’s nuclear arms and missile programs and overshadowed opposition criticism of the premier for suspected cronyism scandals that had eroded his support. <strong></strong></p> <p>As the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/7da27d62-a1c0-11e7-9e4f-7f5e6a7c98a2?emailId=59c8cbb7fdc8650004cc0c3e&amp;segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb">FT notes</a>, "the general election will decide whether Japan continues with its stimulative economic policies and whether Mr Abe has the political strength to drive through a revision to Japan’s war-renouncing constitution."</p> <p>Abe, whose ratings have risen to around 50% from around 30% in July, is gambling his ruling bloc can keep its lower house majority even if it loses the two-thirds “super majority” needed to achieve his long-held goal of revising the post-war pacifist constitution to clarify the military’s role. According to Reuters, A weekend survey by the Nikkei business daily survey showed <strong>44% of voters planned to vote for Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) versus just 8% for the main opposition Democratic Party and another 8% for a new party launched by popular Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike.</strong></p> <p>The Nikkei poll was far more positive for Abe’s prospects than a Kyodo news agency survey that showed his LDP garnering only 27.7% support, with 42.2% undecided. </p> <p>Still, while Abe starts from a strong position, the early election has prompted a drastic realignment among Japan’s opposition, with Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike declaring, just hours before Abe's election announcement, that she would lead a new conservative, reform-minded “Party of Hope”, to offer voters an alternative to the LDP. </p> <p>“Our ideal is to proceed free of special interests,” Koike, a former LDP member, told a news conference.&nbsp; “I am raising my flag for real,” declared Ms Koike at a press conference timed to upstage the prime minister. She said the party would run on her signature anti-establishment platform of reform and opposition to vested interests. “The thing Japan lacks is hope,” she said quoted by the FT. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Previously, Ms Koike had sponsored the launch of the new party but stayed behind the scenes. Now she has declared herself as its leader, indicating she will take a prominent role in the election campaign.</p> </blockquote> <p>Confirming the ongoing power rotation, Mineyuki Fukuda, a deputy minister in the cabinet office, said he was quitting the ruling Liberal Democratic party to stand for the new Party of Hope. He joins a series of established politicians, most of them defectors from the opposition Democratic party, who will run under Ms Koike’s banner.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Abe’s election platform will see him promise to go ahead with a planned rise in the national sales tax to 10% from 8% in 2019 but increase the proportion of revenue spent on child care and education, delaying a target of putting the budget in the black in the fiscal year ending March 2021. As noted above, also on Monday, Abe asked his cabinet to compile a 2-trillion-yen ($17.8-billion) economic package by year-end to focus on child care, education and encouraging corporate investment, while maintaining fiscal discipline.&nbsp; The Yomiuri newspaper said earlier the funding would cover the three years from April 2018 until sales tax revenue kicks in.</p> <p>Abe also wants a minor revision to the constitution that would explicitly recognise the legality of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces. Ms Koike backs constitutional reform, increasing the odds that supporters of a change will secure the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to pass a revision, and will subsequently take it to a national referendum for approval.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Meanwhile, critics of Abe's decision says the prime minister risks risked creating a political vacuum at a time of rising geopolitical tension over North Korea.&nbsp; And, given the unexpected results seen in other major developed countries, political analysts are not ruling out a “nasty surprise” for the Japanese leader. </p> <p>“Abe’s big gamble could yield a big surprise,” veteran independent political analysts Minoru Morita said. </p> <p>For a vivid example of just that, see the outcome from Sunday's "nightmare victory" for Merkel, which virtually nobody had expected, yet which overnight set Germany's right wing AfD party as the country's third most powerful political entity.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="700" height="394" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/abe%20teaser%204.jpg?1506337893" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-25/abe-announces-japan-snap-election-will-face-new-challenger#comments Abenomics Abenomics AfD party Asia Comfort women Corruption Cronyism Democratic Party Gambling Historical revisionism Japan Japanese nationalists LDP Liberal Democratic Party Liberal Democratic Party Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Newspaper Nikkei Nikkei 225 North Korea Politics Politics Politics of Asia Politics of Japan ratings Reuters Shinz? Abe Tax Revenue Yen Yuriko Koike Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:13:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 604106 at http://www.zerohedge.com