en America's Opioid Death Crisis May Be A Lot Worse Than We Thought <p><a href=""><em>Authored by Carey Wedler via,</em></a></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 306px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>America&rsquo;s ongoing opioid crisis is no secret.</strong> With thousands dying from prescription painkiller overdoses each year &mdash; nearly as many as <a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">traffic deaths</a> &mdash; even the U.S. government has been forced to take action. As awareness of the epidemic continues to grow, <strong><em>further hazards of the pharmaceutical class of drugs are being revealed &mdash; including potentially higher numbers of deaths caused by their use.</em></strong></p> <p>According to a recent <a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">report</a> from <em>CBS</em>, opioids are often the factor in deaths caused by infections like pneumonia. &nbsp;CDC field officer Victoria Hall explained that &ldquo;<em>Opioid medications</em><em> &mdash; codeine, hydrocodone (including Vicoprofen), oxycodone (Oxycontin, Percocet), morphine and others</em>&rdquo; can cause<strong> respiratory complications.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;<em>Opioids at therapeutic or higher than therapeutic levels can impact our immune system, actually make your immune system less effective at fighting off illness</em>,&rdquo; she said, adding that because opioids are sedatives, they can cause breathing to become slower and more shallow, which makes the person less likely to cough. Hall says this makes &ldquo;<em>it easier for something like a pneumonia to really set in.</em>&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Complicating matters, Hall found in a recent analysis that <u><strong>when individuals die of an infection worsened by opiate abuse, the cause of death listed on their death certificate often only cites the infection &mdash; not the drugs. </strong></u>She presented her findings at a CDC meeting this week.</p> <p>Hall and a colleague reviewed Minnesota&rsquo;s unexplained death database and found 59 cases where opioids were involved. Twenty-two of those cases were not reported to the state&rsquo;s opioid surveillance because &ldquo;<em>the involvement of drugs hadn&rsquo;t been listed on the death certificate</em>,&rdquo; <em>CBS</em> noted.&ldquo;<em>We found if you have [a]&nbsp;really profound infectious disease, like really bad pneumonia, that may be the only thing written on the death certificate</em>,&rdquo; she said.<em> &ldquo;And thus it&rsquo;s not going to get picked up in opioid surveillance</em>.&rdquo;</p> <p><strong>Still, &ldquo;<em>[p]neumonia was listed as a cause of death in 54 percent of the unexplained drug-related cases, the researchers found.</em>&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>In one example, a Minnesota man who had been abusing opiates eventually died from a bout of the flu brought on by pneumonia.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;<em>He was on long-term opioid therapy for some back pain, and his family was a little bit concerned he was abusing his medications,</em>&rdquo; Hall said, also noting that though the main cause of death the flu, he had a &ldquo;<em>very toxic level of opioids in his system</em>.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;<em>[O]n the death certificate it only listed the pneumonia, and it listed no mention of opioids, so this death wasn&rsquo;t counted in the state opioid death surveillance system</em>,&rdquo; </strong>she said.</p> </blockquote> <p>Pneumonia was listed as a cause of death in 54 percent of the unexplained drug-related cases, the researchers found. Hall said this could have profound implications for keeping track of opiate deaths, particularly in states hit hard by the opioid crisis.</p> <p>Her concerns about complications from opioids were confirmed by Dr. Robert Glatter, an emergency room doctor at New York&rsquo;s Lenox Hill Hospital.<strong> He said they &ldquo;<em>see a fair number of patients who use opiates. And in those patients we see, in general, a higher risk profile for developing pneumonia and other respiratory illness.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>As the extent of the nation&rsquo;s opioid problems continues to come to light, Glatter issued a simple observation:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;<em>This is another in a sequence of reasons to not use opiates.</em>&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="695" height="354" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Chemistry Codeine Drug culture Euphoriants Health Morphinans Morphine Neurochemistry Neuroscience New York’s Lenox Hill Hospital Opiates Opioid Oxycodone RTT US government Thu, 27 Apr 2017 22:10:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 594593 at Congress Refers Hillary's Private Server Company To DOJ For Prosecution <p>Last September we were among the first to note that Hillary's "Oh Shit Guy" (a.k.a Paul Combetta), who was responsible for wiping her private server clean with BleachBit despite acknowledging he was aware of a Congressional subpoena demanding the preservation of all records, was looking like he would be the 'fall guy' to take the blame for Hillary's various federal crimes.&nbsp; </p> <p>For those of you who "do not recall" all of the specifics of Platte River's involvement in the Hillary email scandal, here are a couple of refresher posts:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <ul> <li><a href="">The "Oh Shit" Moment: Hillary Wiped Her Server With BleachBit Despite Subpoena</a></li> <li><a href="">The "Oh Shit" Guy That Wiped Hillary's Server With BleachBit Was Just Granted Immunity</a></li> <li><a href="">Dear FBI, This Is Intent: Hillary's "Oh Shit" Guy Sought Reddit Advice On How To "Strip VIP's Emails"</a></li> </ul> </blockquote> <p>Well, as it turns out, Combetta was one of the Clinton aides offered an immunity deal by Comey which the "<a href="">FBI was handing out like candy</a>."</p> <p>That said, <strong>Platte River Networks' CEO Treve Suazo was not offered such a deal and, after obstructing an investigation led by Rep. Lamar Smith (R - TX) of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee for the better part of year, he has just been referred to the DOJ for prosecution.</strong>&nbsp; Per <a href="">The Washington Free Beacon</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Rep. Lamar Smith (R., Texas), chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, has asked the DOJ to prosecute Platte River Networks CEO Treve Suazo for<strong> obstructing a congressional investigation into his company’s role</strong> in providing security for Clinton’s home brewed email server, which began the subject of widespread debate following revelations that it had multiple security vulnerabilities.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Senior congressional aides apprised of the situation said their investigation shows there is mounting evidence there were "pretty serious cyber security concerns" with Clinton’s server.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Multiple subpoenas and letters from the congressional investigation team went unanswered by Platte River, prompting Smith to refer the case to the DOJ for criminal prosecution.</strong> Congressional investigators allege that the company is guilty of failing to produce key documents, making false statements to Congress, and of obstructing the investigation into Clinton’s server.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>At least two subpoenas issued by the committee were not answered by Platte River.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>As one committee aide noted,<strong> "This is atypical.&nbsp; There were absolutely zero negotiations, there was no willingness on their part to discuss whether any information they would provide would satisfy the committee's request. It was just the company, with council, refusing to discuss the matter."</strong></p> <p>Seems that maybe not everyone can just wipe their problems clean, <strong>"like with a cloth"</strong>, the way Hillary can.</p> <p><iframe src="" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1280" height="720" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> BleachBit Congress DOJ Edmund Hillary FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation Free software Hillary Clinton House Science, Space, and Technology Committee James Comey Law Platte Politics Software Technology Committee Thu, 27 Apr 2017 21:45:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 594551 at 100s Of Cops Gather As Battle of Berkeley 3.0 Begins - Live Feed <p>Groups from across the political spectrum<strong><em> (from Bikers-for-Trump to Antifa)</em></strong> gathered in various spots across Berkeley this afternoon to protest/discuss the now-canceled Ann Coulter event. While events are peaceful for now, <strong>two antifa protesters have been arrested and 100s of police are on the scene</strong>.</p> <p><a href=""><img height="338" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><em>As The Daily Cal reports,</em></a> many community groups who had planned on protesting at Coulter&rsquo;s appearance Thursday decided to continue their demonstrations, even though the event was canceled.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Raphael Kadaris, a member of Refuse Fascism, </strong>addressed onlookers at Sproul Plaza with a megaphone. &ldquo;Anyone who cares about free speech should be worried there&rsquo;s a fascist regime in the White House,&rdquo; Kadaris said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Some conservative groups also gathered to protest the cancellation of Coulter&rsquo;s event. <strong>Lauren Southern, a conservative activist and writer,</strong> said she might read Coulter&rsquo;s speech about 2 p.m. <strong>&ldquo;I am here to defend free speech,&rdquo;</strong> Southern said, &ldquo;Show Antifa it is not their land, and violence will not be tolerated.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Individuals entering Sproul Plaza may be subject to search for weapons, banners and explosive devices, </strong>according to a sign posted on a pillar outside of the Martin Luther King Jr. Student Union and UCPD Nixle alert released about 1:52 p.m. The alert declared Sproul Plaza an &ldquo;event area&rdquo; and advising the community that the area would have limited access.</p> </blockquote> <p>Ann Coulter said Wednesday that she was forced to cancel her April 27 speaking event at the University of California, Berkeley amid concerns of violence but might still &quot;swing by to say hello&quot; to all her supporters.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&quot;I&#39;m not speaking. But I&#39;m going to be near there, so I might swing by to say hello to my supporters who have flown in from all around the country,&quot;</strong></em> Coulter said in an email.<strong><em> &quot;I thought I might stroll around the graveyard of the First Amendment.&quot;</em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Live Feed:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe><br />&nbsp;</p> <p>Live Feed:</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Heavy police presence...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">A heavy police presence can be seen near MLK Civic Center Park in Berkeley ahead of rallies. WATCH LIVE: <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; NBC Bay Area (@nbcbayarea) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Antifa are here...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 373px;" /></a></p> <p>Nazis...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 394px;" /></a></p> <p>And Bikers for Trump...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Who said Bikers for Trump should show up for <a href="">#Berkeley</a> rally to support Patriots. They are there to support <a href="">#FreeSpeech</a> &amp; the <a href="">#Patriots</a> ???????????? <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Navy??????????Brat (@RavenHUWolf) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>And arrests have begun&nbsp; - police asking a protester to remove his mask...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">1 at <a href="">@UCBerkeley</a> arrested - for &quot;obstructing an officer for performing his duties.&quot; Was holding a sign, didnt ID himself or take off mask <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Sarah Ravani (@SarRavani) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="764" height="430" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Alt-right American people of German descent American Presbyterians Ann Coulter Berkeley protests California Coulter Criticism Donald Trump First Amendment Heavy police Martin Luther King Jr. Student Union NBC Police departments at the University of California Politics of the United States Sproul Sproul Plaza Twitter Twitter United States University of California University of California, Berkeley University of California, Berkeley White House White House Thu, 27 Apr 2017 21:35:24 +0000 Tyler Durden 594599 at Third Point Made 5.9% In Q1, Expects "Favorable Investing Environment To Continue": Full Letter <p>Having returned 5.9% in Q1, or just shy of the overall market's 6.1% return, it was not surprising to find the mood in Dan Loeb's just released Third Point letter to be far more uplifting than in the recently posted David Einhorn letter (whose punchline was "<a href="">The Longs Say Stocks Can Only Go Up, Seemingly To Infinity And Beyond. We Have Seen This Before</a>"). </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="231" /></a></p> <p>Looking back at the quarter, the Third Point head said that "during the First Quarter of 2017, volatility declined and most markets rose in anticipation of global reflation. Third Point generated returns across credit and equity strategies and most sectors through successful security selection and portfolio repositioning."</p> <p>Again, contrary to Einhorn, Loeb says that he expects the "favorable environment for our investing style to continue for three reasons": </p> <p style="padding-left: 30px;">1) Corporate activity should pick up as President Trump’s tax plans are detailed and enacted; </p> <p style="padding-left: 30px;">2) Opportunities for activist and constructivist investing are robust; and </p> <p style="padding-left: 30px;">3) Combining security selection with a reasonable interpretation of the macro continues to be critical. </p> <p>Loeb also notes that while we recognize that we are in the late stages of an economic cycle, "<strong>experience has taught us not to miss the end of an expansive period. This is especially true following Trump’s election. </strong>Animal spirits matter in markets and despite the obstacles that the new administration will face in passing legislation, <strong>the overall pro-business environment is in sharp contrast to the last “you didn’t build it” administration’s attitude towards business, enterprise, and free markets</strong>." </p> <p>In other words, unlike many other hedge fund managers, Loeb does not believe that the Trumphoria is over, and is trading accordingly. </p> <p>Or maybe not: as Loeb also says, "we have been more focused on improving global growth than on the “Trump trade”. The Goldman Sachs global GDP forecast for 2017 is +4.2% vs. +2% a year ago. We are seeing more opportunities in Europe because of strong and improving economic data, a trend that will likely continue now that the French elections have passed without incident. Although S&amp;P earnings were flat over the past three years, we are expecting earnings growth to drive gains and cyclical names to get a tailwind from US policy shifts this year."</p> <p>To be sure, Loeb highlights several risks, and writes that "while we think legislative failure on tax reform could be negative in the back half of this year, we are encouraged that BAT seems to be off the table." </p> <p>Some other risk factors listed:&nbsp;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>There is a risk of inflation catching the Fed flat-footed, but we see this surfacing later in 2018 or 2019, if at all</strong>. Recent dampening of data in the US, particularly in consumer spending, has raised a red flag and we will know more when we see Q1 GDP. Chinese nominal GDP growth has potentially peaked, but the main event there will be the change of government this fall and so we expect a muted status quo until then."</p> </blockquote> <p>Loeb writes that if and when the "modest selloff comes", he will BTFD with both hands: "We have actively positioned our portfolio to absorb modest S&amp;P sell-offs in order to remain aggressive buyers at appealing prices."</p> <p>What we found most interesting in the entire letter, however, is just how liquid Loeb's portfolio is, to wit: "<strong>we were able to temporarily reduce over 20% of our equity exposure in advance of the French election at a relatively inexpensive cost of about 20 basis points."&nbsp; </strong>Few other hedge funds can put trades on and off so quickly and so cheaply. The reason is because "<strong>we continue to maintain the bulk of our exposure in equities, including in several new initiatives where we believe the environment is ripe to take actions to remedy poor performance.</strong>"</p> <p>Next, for anyone wondering why Honeywell is spiking afterhours, the reason is that Third Point has just disclosed a stake in the company. It also took stakes in Italian bank UniCredit and German utility operator E.On.</p> <p>Finally, contrary to others, Loeb is not a fan of the conventional frac sand miner thesis, and is instead betting on Tier 2 sand:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>Equity Position: FRAC Sand Miners</strong> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Is sand the new gold? In early Q1, the combined market capitalization of frac sand miners had reached $11 billion, <strong>pricing in an average Enterprise Value per ton of over $300 or over 15x replacement value</strong>. An army of consultants, sell-side analysts, and speculators were confidently pointing to the exponential rise in demand for frac sand as rig counts and company budgets turned a corner, drilling activity was on the upswing, and proppant intensity was rising. The frac sand industry’s cheerleaders were certain they could continue to outwit the laws of supply and demand.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Our field work identified an important shift from the use of northern white to abundant in-basin brown sand</strong>. In addition to a large and growing number of greenfield projects that are creating new capacity, <strong>we uncovered significant overhang that has been sitting on the sidelines and is now being reactivated</strong>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As sand pricing starts to decline in summer or fall at the latest as a consequence of the outsized supply we have seen,<strong> we expect many of the publicly-listed frac sand miners to end up with little if any equity value.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>His full letter below (<a href="">link</a>)</p> <p><iframe src=";view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-0JrldsDQdzdkk2T59UPK&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="400" height="280" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Alternative investment management companies Business Daniel S. Loeb David Einhorn David Einhorn Finance goldman sachs Goldman Sachs Hedge fund Honeywell Loeb Money Nominal GDP Third Point Third Point Management US Federal Reserve Volatility Thu, 27 Apr 2017 21:31:08 +0000 Tyler Durden 594600 at Canada Hit By Countrywide Internet, TV And Phone Outage As Shaw Goes Dark <p>Tens of thousands of Canadian clients of Shaw are suffering what appears to be a nationwide loss of internet, cable and phone services. According to the <a href="">outage map below</a>, the service interruption is widespread and has impacted most Canadian metropolitan centers. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="257" /></a></p> <p>Shortly before 4pm ET, the telecom <a href="">company posted to its website </a>advising that an outage was in progress and pologizing:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>"Some customers nationally may be experiencing an interruption to Internet, Television and Home Phone services. We are investigating the situation and working to restore service as quickly as possible. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause."</p> </blockquote> <p>At 4:20 ET they issued an update, saying they don't know when services will be restored.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>"Our network technicians are working to restore services as quickly as possible. Currently no ETA. If we get any further information to share we will post another update. Thank you for your patience so far."</p> </blockquote> <p>At 4:50 ET Shaw updated that its broadband team is still working to resolve service. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="233" />\</a></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">For more information on the service interruptions, see <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Shaw Help (@Shawhelp) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>Shaw customers across the country were not impressed, as can be seen by the thousands of angry tweets.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Shaw Communications is having issues since 03:43 PM EST<a href=""></a><br />RT if you're also affected <a href="">#Shawoutage</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Outage Report CA (@outagereportca) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Well, with the <a href="">#shaw</a> outage we've been knocked off our normal routine. Tweet us what your business is and we'll share with our audience!</p> <p>— Bootkik (@bootkik) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">With this <a href="">#shawoutage</a> I can't work, I can't shop (cash only), and I can't even play my video game. I'mma have to play with my kids.</p> <p>— Natasha (@natashafair) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Shaw is reporting national Shaw outage [In Progress] <a href="">#yyj</a> <a href="">#VictoriaBC</a> Sooke, Oak Bay, Langford, Saanich. <a href="">@Shawhelp</a> wish we could help :)</p> <p>— WebMax (@WebMaxWebDesign) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Well at least i know i dont have to blame Teksavvy for the <a href="">#Shaw</a> outage. Nationwide. <a href="">@Shawhelp</a> please fix or at least tweet an update</p> <p>— Roman Sizer (@brightersideof) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="">#ShawOutage</a> can't work/fix my home wifi &amp; internet connection <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Queenie Wei (@SoulVibe_SVC) <a href="">April 27, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="500" height="257" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> broadband Computing Countrywide ETA Microblogging Outage Real-time web Shaw Communications Social media Software Technology TekSavvy Text messaging Twitter Twitter Twitter Thu, 27 Apr 2017 21:05:50 +0000 Tyler Durden 594598 at Florida Coast in Trouble? 'Complete Globalist Propaganda' - SKG <h2>We Are&nbsp;All Going to Die From Coastal Flooding*</h2> <p><em>* Those having net worths of $10MM or more need not read.</em></p> <p>via <a href="">Soren K Group</a> and <a href="">Marketslant</a></p> <p>The opinion piece at bottom is by&nbsp;Dr. Joe Romm, a Founding Editor of Climate Progress, “the indispensable blog,” as NY Times columnist Tom Friedman describes it. We thoroughly enjoyed reading it. And as writers with trading DNA we wanted to know where the trade was.&nbsp;</p> <p>Long OJ? Long potable water? Short insurance companies, and other ideas were bounced around. All had risks we were uncomfortable with.&nbsp;Finally one of our group, "Bon Scott" summed it up perfectly in only the way he can. Implicitly, <strong>Buy infrastructure companies.</strong></p> <p>From Soren K. Group contributor "Bon":&nbsp;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Complete, total, globalist propaganda.</p> <p>In the USA coastal property values are going nowhere but up. Period. Humans by nature want to be around water. Rich people like to be around other (white) rich people. Who do you think supports political campaigns?.... Beachfront property owners that's who!</p> <p>Flooding... Hire mexicans that no longer have landscaping jobs due to suburban collapse to truck in more dirt and pave it. Raise homes, raise roads (it's happening now in NJ). Water? Pipe it in from the mountains all the way to Key fucking West. MOAR jobs! Print the fucking fiat to pay for it. Tax the world.</p> </blockquote> <p>The result is like everything else we say here. The middle class, what remains of them, will have more financial burden to shoulder. The rich build walls, and &nbsp;the poor are cared for.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">OH NO GLOBAL WARMING</span></p> <p>Examples of Bon's point. Bill Gates bought a stake in the Four Seasons and its Caribean property in 2015. Think he is worried about his island sinking? Trump owns a <a href="">mansion on St. Maarten</a> bought in 2013 last we checked. Think he's worried? Gates also owns property in <a href="">Palm Beach</a> bought in 2013. Tech billionaire Larry Ellison has bought 98 per cent of Hawaiian island Lanai.&nbsp;Indian Creek Village in Miami's Biscayne Bay may be on a tiny island, but the neighborhood of just 86 residents is home to some of the biggest A-listers and some of America's richest business moguls.</p> <p>Some of these purchases are basically "safe rooms" for the rich in case of civilization breakdown. Climate change isn't a deterrent. If it were they'd be buying mountain homes only.&nbsp;</p> <div><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Capitalism Finds a way, Workers Will Pay</span></div> <p>The author must be kidding us if he thinks a climate catastrophe awaits Trump. This is just another justification&nbsp;for Trump to ramp up infrastructure and thus GDP.&nbsp;Does he think we will just watch things sink? By his own admission it is in "slow- motion". China builds synthetic islands in the South Pacific. Romm, the academic globalist doesn't think the rich voting &nbsp;owners in coastal Fla will get their way through walls, levies, and tax breaks to protect their property? And Romm doesn't think that it will be a tax increase on the rest of us as a Patriotic Duty?&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>The rich will be on stilts.<em> You will pay for it. in NJ each home wrecked post Sandy got a 40k tax credit to raise the house. Who paid for that? The wealthy that are leaving NJ in droves now.</em></li> <li>The insurance companies will be bailed out-<em>&nbsp;You will pay for it. You already did 5x in the last 30 years.</em></li> <li>The poor will be taken care of (as they should be)-<em>&nbsp;You will pay for it, as &nbsp;the impoverished group of baby boomers swell the ranks.</em></li> </ul> <p>You will pay with higher taxes, lower purchasing power, an inability to access global competitors for pricing. your children will pay for it by becoming indentured servants to the Government when they cannot pay their student loans back. we know. We've seen it in Argentina first hand. The best educated, lowest paid MBAs in the Americas.</p> <p>Mnuchin's tax statement yesterday basically implied the intention &nbsp;to remove tax cuts at the middle class level by removing home owner tax deductions. &nbsp;The working class is taken for granted. Even Ghandi had a point where&nbsp;he'd take up arms.&nbsp;Wake up people. Why aren't you mad?&nbsp;</p> <p>That said, enjoy the piece below. -Soren K. Group</p> <p>-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------</p> <h2>Climate change poses ‘nightmare scenario’ for Florida coast, Bloomberg warns</h2> <p><a href="">via Joe Romm and Thinkprogess</a></p> <p>Donald Trump’s presidency may make this future for South Florida and “Miami Island” unstoppable. CREDIT: <a href=";projections=0-RCP85-SLR&amp;level=6&amp;unit=feet&amp;pois=hide">Climate&nbsp;Central</a></p> <p>“Pessimists selling to optimists.” That’s how one former Florida coastal property owner describes the current state of the market in a must-read <a href="">Bloomberg story</a>.</p> <p>Right now, science and politics don’t favor the optimists. The disintegration of the <a href="">Greenland</a> and <a href="">Antarctic</a> ice sheets is speeding up, providing increasing evidence we are headed for the worst-case scenario of sea level rise?—?three to six feet (or more) by 2100.</p> <p>The impacts are already visible in South Florida. “Tidal flooding now predictably drenches inland streets, even when the sun is out, thanks to the region’s porous limestone bedrock,” explains Bloomberg. “Saltwater is creeping into the drinking water supply.”</p> <p>At the same time, President Trump <a href="">is working</a> to thwart both domestic and international climate action while slashing funding for coastal adaptation and monitoring. E&amp;E News <a href="">reported</a> earlier this month that the EPA has already “disbanded its climate change adaptation program” and reassigned all the workers.</p> <p>Faster sea level rise and less adaptation means the day of reckoning is nigh. Dan Kipnis, chair of Miami Beach’s Marine and Waterfront Protection Authority?—?who has failed to find a buyer for his Miami Beach home for nearly a year?—?told Bloomberg, “Nobody thinks it’s coming as fast as it is.”</p> <p>But this is not just South Florida’s problem. The entire country is facing a <a href="">trillion-dollar bubble</a> in coastal property values. This Hindenburg has been held aloft by U.S. taxpayers in the form of the National Flood Insurance Program.</p> <p>A 2014 Reuters analysis of this “<a href="">slow-motion disaster</a>” calculated there’s almost $1.25 trillion in coastal property being covered at below-market rates.</p> <p><span><span style="background: rgba(220,220,220,0.5); background-image: url(;"><img src="" width="605" height="524" /></span><span title="Click and drag to resize">?</span></span></p> <p>CREDIT: Reuters</p> <p>When will the bubble burst? As I’ve written <a href="">for years</a>, property values will crash when a large fraction of the financial community?—?mortgage bankers and opinion-makers, along with a smaller but substantial fraction of the public?—?realize that it is too late for us to stop catastrophic sea level rise.</p> <p>When sellers outnumber buyers, and banks become reluctant to write 30-year mortgages for doomed property, and insurance rates soar, then the coastal property bubble will slow, peak, and crash.</p> <p>The devaluation process had begun even before Trump’s election reduced the chances we would act in time to prevent catastrophic climate change. The New York Times <a href="">reported</a> last fall that “nationally, median home prices in areas at high risk for flooding are still 4.4 percent below what they were 10 years ago, while home prices in low-risk areas are up 29.7 percent over the same period.”</p> <p>Sean Becketti, the chief economist for mortgage giant Freddie Mac, <a href="">warned</a> a year ago that values could plunge if sellers start a stampede. “Some residents will cash out early and suffer minimal losses,” he said. “Others will not be so lucky.”</p> <p>As this week’s Bloomberg piece puts it, “Demand and financing could collapse before the sea consumes a single house.”</p> <p>So here’s a question for owners of coastal property?—?and the financial institutions that back them?—?as they watch team Trump <a href="http://keep%20his%20coastal-destroying%20promises/">keep his coastal-destroying promises</a>: Who will be the smart money that gets out early?—?and who will be the other kind of money?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-blog"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_blog" width="1000" height="867" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> American people of German descent Antarctic Bill Gates China Climate change Climate change adaptation Donald Trump Environmental Protection Agency Florida Four Seasons Freddie Mac Global Warming Hurricane Sandy Insurance Insurance Companies Joseph J. Romm New York Times Purchasing Power Reuters Sea level rise Smart Money South Florida South Pacific Student Loans The Apprentice United States Waterfront Protection Authority WWE Hall of Fame Thu, 27 Apr 2017 20:55:09 +0000 Vince Lanci 594596 at It's Different This Time... <p><a href=""><em>Authored by Lance Roberts via,</em></a></p> <p>Just recently, <a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Wealth Management</a> had an interesting interview with Jeremy Grantham in which Jeremy suggests the <em>&ldquo;rules have changed&rdquo;</em> for value investors. <a href=";Issue=WM-27_20170425_WM-27_114&amp;sfvc4enews=42&amp;cl=article_1_2&amp;utm_rid=CPG09000002779114&amp;utm_campaign=9230&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;elq2=0103d24eeed94762a6bddea9d823e758" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">To wit:</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em>&ldquo;The market was extremely well-behaved from 1935 until 2000. It was an orderly world in which to be a value manager:<strong> there was mean reversion.</strong> If a value manager was patient, he was in heaven. <strong>The market outperformed when it was it cheap, and when it got expensive, it cracked.</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Since 2000, it&rsquo;s become much more complicated. The rules have shifted. We used to say that this time is never different. I think what has happened from 2000 until today is a challenge to that. S<strong>ince 1998, price-earnings ratios have averaged 60 percent higher than the prior 50 years, and profit margins have averaged 20 to 30 percent higher.</strong> That&rsquo;s a powerful double whammy.&rdquo;</em></p> </blockquote> <p>He is correct. As shown below the average CAPE ratio level rose, beginning in 1980 to 21.67 from the average of 14.42 over the previous 80-years.</p> <p><a href=""><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20756" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 332px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>Of course, the bulk of that increase is due to the valuation anomaly of the 1999 <em>&ldquo;;</em> bubble which skewed earnings to astronomical extremes.</strong> If we normalize that&nbsp;period, average valuation levels have only slightly increased in recent years. <strong>However, there is no&nbsp;argument that fundamental valuation measures have indeed changed, and arguably for the worse.</strong></p> <p>There is some truth to the argument that <em>&ldquo;this time is different.&rdquo;</em> The accounting mechanizations that have been implemented over the last five years, <strong>particularly due to the repeal of FASB Rule 157 which eliminated <em>&ldquo;mark-to-market&rdquo;</em> accounting,</strong> have allowed an ever increasing number of firms to <em>&ldquo;game&rdquo;</em> earnings season for their own benefit. <strong>Such gimmickry has suppressed valuation measures far below levels they would be otherwise.</strong></p> <p>While <strong>operating earnings</strong> are the primary focus of analysts, the media, <strong><a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">and hucksters,</a></strong>&nbsp;there are many problems with the way in which these earnings are derived due to one-time charges, inclusion/exclusion of material events, and&nbsp;<strong>outright manipulation to <em>&ldquo;beat earnings.&rdquo;&nbsp;</em>&nbsp;</strong>This problem has been exacerbated since the end of the financial crisis, as we will discuss more in a moment, to the point to where <strong>only 13% of total revenue growth</strong> is coming from actual revenue, the rest is from accounting gimmickry, buybacks, and outright fudging.</p> <p><a href=""><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20231" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 468px;" /></a></p> <p>The Wall Street Journal confirmed as much <strong>in a 2012</strong> article entitled <a href=""><em>&ldquo;Earnings Wizardry&rdquo;</em></a> which stated:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="color: #993300;"><em>&ldquo;If you believe a recent academic study, <strong>one out of five [20%] U.S. finance chiefs have been scrambling to fiddle with their companies&rsquo; earnings.</strong> Not Enron-style, fraudulent fiddles, mind you. <strong>More like clever&mdash;and legal&mdash;exploitations of accounting standards that &lsquo;manage earnings to misrepresent [the company&rsquo;s] economic performance,</strong>&rsquo; according to the study&rsquo;s authors, Ilia Dichev and Shiva Rajgopal of Emory University and John Graham of Duke University. Lightly searing the books rather than cooking them, if you like.&rdquo;</em></span></p> </blockquote> <p>This should not come as a major surprise as it is a rather<em> &ldquo;open secret.&rdquo;</em> Companies manipulate bottom line earnings by utilizing <em>&ldquo;cookie-jar&rdquo;</em> reserves, heavy use of accruals, and other accounting instruments to either flatter, or depress, earnings.</p> <p><img alt="Cooking-The-Books" class="i_want_img size-full wp-image-10564" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 666px;" /></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="color: #993300;"><em>&ldquo;The tricks are well-known: A difficult quarter can be made easier by releasing reserves set aside for a rainy day or recognizing revenues before sales are made, while a good quarter is often the time to hide a big &lsquo;restructuring charge&rsquo; that would otherwise stand out like a sore thumb. <strong>What is more surprising though is CFOs&rsquo; belief that these practices leave a significant mark on companies&rsquo; reported profits and losses.</strong> When asked about the magnitude of the earnings misrepresentation, <strong>the study&rsquo;s respondents said it was around 10% of earnings per share.&rdquo;</strong></em></span></p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, the reason that companies do this is simple: stock-based compensation. Today, more than ever, many corporate executives have a large percentage of their compensation tied to company stock performance. A <em>&ldquo;miss&rdquo;</em> of Wall Street expectations can lead to a large penalty in the companies stock price. <strong>Therefore, it is not surprising to see 93% of the respondents pointing to <em>&ldquo;influence on stock price&rdquo;</em> and <em>&ldquo;outside pressure&rdquo;</em> as reasons for manipulating earnings.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="color: #008000;"><strong><em>Note: For fundamental investors, this manipulation of earnings skews valuation analysis particularly with respect to P/E&rsquo;s, EV/EBITDA, PEG, etc.</em></strong></span></p> </blockquote> <p>This was brought to the fore again recently by the Associated Press in: <em><a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">&ldquo;Experts Worry That Phony Numbers Are Misleading Investors:&rdquo;</a></em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="color: #993300;"><em>&ldquo;Those record profits that companies are reporting may not be all they&rsquo;re cracked up to be.</em></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="color: #993300;"><em>As the stock market climbs ever higher, professional investors are warning that companies are presenting misleading versions of their results that ignore a wide variety of normal costs of running a business to make it seem like they&rsquo;re doing better than they really are.</em></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="color: #993300;"><em>What&rsquo;s worse, the financial analysts who are supposed to fight corporate spin are often playing along. <strong>Instead of challenging the companies, they&rsquo;re largely passing along the rosy numbers in reports recommending stocks to investors.</strong>&ldquo;</em></span></p> </blockquote> <p>Here are the key findings of the report:</p> <ul> <li><strong>Seventy-two percent of the companies reviewed by AP had adjusted profits that were higher than net income</strong> in the first quarter of this year. That&rsquo;s about the same as in the comparable period five years earlier, but the gap between the adjusted and net income figures has widened considerably: adjusted earnings were typically 16 percent higher than net income in the most recent period versus 9 percent five years ago.</li> <li>For a smaller group of the companies reviewed, <strong>21 percent of the total, adjusted profits soared 50 percent or more over net income.</strong> This was true of just 13 percent of the group in the same period five years ago.</li> <li>Quarter after quarter, the differences between the adjusted and bottom-line figures are adding up. <strong>From 2010 through 2014, adjusted profits for the S&amp;P 500 came in $583 billion higher than net income.</strong> It&rsquo;s as if each company in the S&amp;P 500 got a check in the mail for an extra eight months of earnings.</li> <li><strong>Fifteen companies with adjusted profits actually had bottom-line losses over the five years</strong>. Investors have poured money into their stocks just the same.</li> <li>Stocks are getting more expensive, meaning there could be a greater risk of stocks falling if the earnings figures being used to justify buying them are questionable. One measure of how richly priced stocks are suggesting trouble. <strong>Three years ago, investors paid $13.50 for every dollar of adjusted profits for companies in the S&amp;P 500 index, according to S&amp;P Capital IQ. Now, they&rsquo;re paying nearly $18.</strong></li> </ul> <p><em><span style="color: #993300;"><strong>Less than one-year later, individuals</strong> <strong>are paying nearly $25 for</strong>&nbsp;<strong>12-month reported EPS at roughly the same level as they were at the end of 2013.</strong></span></em></p> <p>The obvious problem when it comes to investing and the markets is that playing <em><strong>&ldquo;leapfrog with a unicorn&rdquo;</strong></em> has very negative outcomes. <strong>While valuations may not matter currently, in hindsight it will become clear that such valuation levels were clearly unsustainable.</strong> However, the financial media will report such revelations long after it is of use to anyone.</p> <h2><u><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>This Time Is Not Different</strong></span></u></h2> <p>The eventual outcome will be the same as every previous speculative/liquidity driven bubble throughout history. The only difference will be the catalyst that eventually sends investors running for cover.</p> <p>Just as it was in 1999 where<strong><em> &ldquo;investing like Warren Buffett was like driving Dad&rsquo;s old Pontiac,&rdquo;</em></strong> it is near the end of an elongated <em>&ldquo;bull market cycle,&rdquo;</em> where price discovery becomes impaired, that investors become lulled into a sense of false security. <strong>At the heart of these cycles is always a central thesis.</strong> <strong>In 1999 it was <em>&ldquo;;</em> stocks, in 2007 it was <em>&ldquo;real estate,&rdquo;</em> and as <a href=";utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">noted recently</a>&nbsp;it is now <em>&ldquo;passive indexing.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em>&ldquo;</em><em>Our evidence suggests the growth of ETFs may have (unintended) long-run consequences <strong>for the pricing efficiency of the underlying securities.&rsquo;</strong></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>The detrimental effects to the market snowball from there. <strong>Fewer trades occur, so liquidity in single stocks deteriorates, raising transaction costs. That only further discourages professional traders, so the price discrepancies remain without the informational arbitrage to close the gaps.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>The problem with the lack of liquidity, <a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">as I discussed last week,</a> is <strong>what happens when prices revert at a time when leverage is at historical highs. &nbsp;</strong>Throughout history, when prices have deviated more than 10% above their 3-year moving average, corrections and reversions have often followed.</p> <p><a href=""><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20757" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 335px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>Importantly, the magnitude of those corrections/reversions has often been dictated by the catalyst <em>(the cause of the reversion), </em>the amount of leverage in the system, and&nbsp;the economic damage&nbsp;caused by it.</strong></p> <p><strong>For example, in 2008, the markets running at roughly 12% above the long-term mean, well below the 40% deviation is 2000, yet the catalyst <em>(Lehman)</em> and the subsequent economic fallout caused by the financial crisis, ripped through the financial markets to the same degree as the <em>&ldquo; crash.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>Furthermore, the biggest market crashes have come from when valuation levels were trading above 23x earnings.</p> <p><a href=""><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-20775" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 310px;" /></a></p> <p>As David Einhorn recently wrote in an update to his investors:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="color: #993300;"><em><strong>&ldquo;<span class="a">The bulls explain that traditional valuation metrics no longer apply&nbsp;</span></strong><span class="a"><strong>to certain stocks.</strong> The longs are confident that everyone else who holds these stocks&nbsp;</span><span class="a">understands the dynamic and won&rsquo;t sell either. With holders reluctant to sell, the stocks&nbsp;</span><span class="a">can only go up &ndash; seemingly to infinity and beyond. We have seen this before. </span></em></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="color: #993300;"><em><span class="a"><strong>There&nbsp;</strong></span><strong><span class="a">was no catalyst that we know of that burst the dot-com bubble in March 2000, and we&nbsp;</span><span class="a">don&rsquo;t have a particular catalyst in mind here. That said, the top will be the top, and it&rsquo;s hard&nbsp;</span><span class="a">to predict when it will happen.&rdquo;</span></strong></em></span></p> </blockquote> <p>For longer term investors who are depending on their <em>&ldquo;hard earned&rdquo;</em> savings to generate a <em>&ldquo;living income&rdquo;</em> through retirement, understanding the <em>&ldquo;real&rdquo;</em> value will mean a great deal.&nbsp;As <a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Michael Lebowitz noted yesterday: </a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="color: #993300;"><em>&ldquo;There is no doubt that the market can grind higher to more dizzying valuations. However, there is also strong historical evidence this market will normalize to average valuations. <strong>In the wisdom of Bernard Baruch, there are times when you &lsquo;make your money&rsquo; by not losing it. Perhaps more importantly, you preserve the ability to buy when better opportunities present themselves.&rdquo;</strong></em></span></p> </blockquote> <p>Is this time different?</p> <p>James Montier summed this question up perfectly in&nbsp;<a href="" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">&ldquo;Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast,&rdquo;&nbsp;</a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><span style="color: #993300;"><strong>&ldquo;</strong></span></em><em><span style="color: #993300;">Current arguments as to why this time is different are cloaked in the economics of secular stagnation and standard finance workhorses like the equity risk premium model. <strong>Whilst these may lend a veneer of respectability to those dangerous words, taking arguments at face value without considering the evidence seems to me, at least, to be a common link with previous bubbles.</strong>&ldquo;</span></em></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>While investors insist the markets are currently NOT in a bubble, it would be wise to remember the same belief was held in 1999 and 2007.</strong> Throughout history, financial bubbles have only been recognized in hindsight&nbsp;when their existence becomes <em>&ldquo;apparently obvious&rdquo;</em> to everyone. Of course, by that point is was far too late to be of any use to investors and the subsequent destruction of invested capital.</p> <p><strong>This time will not be different.</strong> Only the catalyst, magnitude, and duration will be.</p> <p>Investors would do well to remember the words of the then-chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission Arthur Levitt in a 1998 speech entitled <em>&ldquo;The Numbers Game:&rdquo;</em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span style="color: #993300;"><em><strong>&ldquo;While the temptations are great, and the pressures strong, illusions in numbers are only that - ephemeral, and ultimately self-destructive.&rdquo;</strong></em></span></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="687" height="349" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Arthur Levitt Business David Einhorn Duke University Economy Emory University ETC Finance Financial economics Financial history of the Dutch Republic Financial markets Fundamental analysis Investment James Montier Jeremy Grantham Lehman Mark-to-market accounting Mean Reversion Money Pontiac Price–earnings ratio Real estate Risk Premium S&P 500 Securities and Exchange Commission Securities and Exchange Commission Stock market Valuation Wall Street Journal Warren Buffett Thu, 27 Apr 2017 20:50:39 +0000 Tyler Durden 594575 at North Korea Releases Video Simulating War With The U.S. <p>Earlier today, Vladimir Putin <a href="">warned </a>that "the situation in Korea is deteriorating" and joined China in urging all sides to "avoid belligerent rhetoric." It was not clear what spooked the Russian president to escalate the rhetoric over North Korea, however in a move that will hardly help deescalate tensions, a North Korean propaganda outlet released a video clip on Thursday, which showed a simulated attack on the White House and declaring that “the enemy to be destroyed is in our sights.”</p> <p>The video was released just days after North Korea conducted large-scale artillery drills, showing off conventional weaponry that can easily reach South Korea’s capital, Seoul. It also comes one day after the entire Senate was gathered at the White House to receive a briefing from Trump's top generals on the situation in North Korea. At the same time, the US sub, USS Michigan, which carries Tomahawk cruise missiles, docked in the South Korean port of Busan this week. The USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier, along with the destroyers and cruiser that make up its strike group, will arrive in the Korean Peninsula area this weekend.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The clip was released by a North Korean website (Meari, or Echo) showing photos of the White House and aircraft carriers with a target on them, as if they are in the crosshair, the <a href="">WaPo reported earlier</a>. It then showed simulated footage of an aircraft carrier exploding into flames, with the caption: “When the enemy takes the first step toward provocation and invasion.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The 2½ -minute video included scenes from the huge military parade that North Korea organized April 15 to mark the anniversary of the birth of the state’s founder, Kim Il Sung. It also showed footage of North Korean artillery and missile launches. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Against the backdrop of missile launches, the caption read: “We will show you what a strong country that leads the world in nuclear and missile technology is capable of.”</p> </blockquote> <p>A similar video, showing missiles arcing over the Pacific and leaving a U.S. city in flames, followed by images of a burning American flag and a cemetery filled with white crosses, was shown during a concert held April 16 and attended by Kim. </p> <p>While North Korea is best known for its bombastic rhetoric and exaggerated propaganda, in recent weeks it has ramped up its output as tensions have risen. On the other hand, the country has abstained from engaging in more missiles tests (either successful or otherwise) or nuclear bomb tests, prompting some to speculate whether the recent intervention by China may have impacted Kim's behavior. </p> <p>On the other hand, if indeed the US has managed to sabotage North Korea's missile technology as the NYT alleged several months ago, and has launch control, what Kim wants may no longer be relevant and the only variable is having all key US military assets in place before a simulated war with North Korea becomes all too real.</p> <p><iframe src="" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="799" height="420" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> China KIM Kim Il-sung Korea Michigan Military of North Korea missile technology North Korea North Korea Nuclear program of North Korea Politics Politics Republics Senate Vladimir Putin War White House White House Thu, 27 Apr 2017 20:40:24 +0000 Tyler Durden 594582 at Amazon Soars To New All Time High After Smashing Expectations <p>After two consecutive quarters of disappointing earnings reports (which however failed to keep the stock down), AMZN is back to its beating ways, reporting both revenue and EPS which blew away expectations. In the first quarter, Amazon reported earnings of $724 million or $1.48 per share, a 41% increase in quaraterly profit, and some 40 cents above the consensus estimate of $1.08, on net sales of $35.71 Billion, also higher than the estimate of $35.3 Billion, and up from $19.2 billion. </p> <p>This was toward the top end of the company's guidance from a quarter ago, which saw sales rising as saw earnings rising as $35.75BN. The company's closely watched operating income came at $1.01 billion, beating estimates of $936.2 million.</p> <p>The closely followed AWS segment reported net sales of $3.66 billion, also beating estimates of $3.63 billion, a Y/Y growth of +43%; However AMZN reported AWS operating income of $890 million, which was a modest miss to the $1.1 billion expected. AWS margin in Q1 was 24.3%, fractionally higher than the 23.6% reported a year ago.</p> <p>Putting AWS in context, <strong>whereas AMZN's total operating income was $1 billion in Q1, AWS $890 million of this. T</strong>he division has been facing tougher competition from both Microsoft and Google, prompting some concerns about whether the growth can continue on pace, especially amid price wars.<strong><br /></strong></p> <p>Looking forward, AMZN sees the following revenue and operating income:</p> <ul> <li>Net sales are expected to be between $35.25 billion and $37.75 billion, or to grow between 16% and 24% compared with second quarter 2016. This guidance anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately $720 million or 240 basis points from foreign exchange rates. Wall Street expected $36.9 billion</li> <li>Operating income is expected to be between $425 million and $1.075 billion, compared with $1.3 billion in second quarter 2016. Wall Street consensus was looking for $1.49 billion.</li> </ul> <p>Jeff Bezos was as usual optimistic:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“Our Prime team’s customer obsession kept them busy in 2016,” said Jeff Bezos, Amazon founder and CEO. “Prime members can now choose from over 50 million items with free two-day shipping — up 73% since 2015. Prime Video is now available in more than 200 countries and territories. Prime Now added 18 new cities, which means millions more members now get one and two hour delivery. New benefits were also added to the list, like Prime Reading, Audible Channels for Prime, Twitch Prime and more. And customers noticed — tens of millions of new paid members joined the program in just this past year.”</p> </blockquote> <p>As a reminder, a big part of AMZN's spending is coming in international markets like Mexico and India, where the company is building out its Prime offerings and competing against heavily entrenched incumbents. As the WSJ notes, Flipkart, Amazon’s main competitor in India, just drew another big round of funding totaling $1.4 billion, including from U.S. rival eBay Inc. Last week, Amazon said it would be expanding its retail footprint to Australia.</p> <p>The international business has been stuck in the red in recent quarters. That remained the case in the first quarter, as the division reported an operating loss of $481 million. Sales increased to $11.1 billion, from $9.57 billion a year ago.</p> <p>As the journal also adds, the retail giant has also started laying the groundwork for its own shipping business to add capacity for itself. In the first quarter, Amazon said it is building its first air hub in Kentucky and is also planning to add airfreight capacity for Chinese customers. <strong>The company is leasing 40 planes and has more than 4,000 dedicated truck trailer hitches as it aims to move more of its goods itself, </strong>and has rolled out delivery in as little as an hour to more than 40 cities. But that fast shipping likely contributed to the company’s shipping costs rising 34% in the first quarter to $4.38 billion.</p> <p>Despite the company's generous spending ways, analysts have said that high margin streams of revenue like those from its advertising, subscription and credit card businesses are expected to continue to grow and help offset higher spending. </p> <p>Finally, for all the concerns about AMZN's cash burn, the company reported LTM Free Cash Flow in Q1 of just over $10 billion. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="313" /></a></p> <p>After rebounding in Q4, AMZN's operating margin posted a modest decline to 2.8% </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="331" /></a></p> <p>Also notable, as of March 31, Amazon employed some 351,000 mostly part-time workers.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="291" /></a></p> <p>Finally, after a significant rise in the company's LTM operating margin in the past two years, it appears to have plateaued once again.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="260" /></a></p> <p>That however does not bother shareholders, who have sent AMZN to fresh all time highs, above $950, which means Jeff Bezos is now a little over $50 away from being the world's richest man.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="316" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1187" height="749" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Amazon Web Services Australia Business Business Citigroup Cloud computing Cloud infrastructure Computing Economy of the United States Google India Jeff Bezos Mexico Microsoft Navistar International Subprime mortgage crisis Web hosting Thu, 27 Apr 2017 20:31:36 +0000 Tyler Durden 594594 at Earnings-palooza - AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, SBUX, INTC, GPRO, EXPE <p><strong>Amazon and Alphabet are surging</strong> after hours after big beats but <strong>Microsoft is fading </strong>(missed on revenues and capex) and <strong>Starbucks is sliding </strong>on a disappointing same store sales comp.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 498px;" /></a></p> <p><u><strong>Alphabet Big Beat</strong></u></p> <ul> <li>*ALPHABET 1Q EPS $7.73, GAAP EST. $7.42</li> <li>*ALPHABET 1Q PAID CLICKS +44%</li> <li>Q1 Revs. $24.75B vs. $24.22B Est.</li> </ul> <p>Major decoupling from 2017 expectation still</p> <p><a href=""><img height="324" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>Amazon Big Beat</strong>:</u></p> <ul> <li>*AMAZON 1Q NET SALES $35.7B, EST. $35.3B</li> <li>*AMAZON 1Q AWS NET SALES $3.66B, EST. $3.63B</li> <li>*AMAZON 1Q EPS $1.48, GAAP EST. $1.08</li> </ul> <p>But the decoupling remains...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 321px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><u>Microsoft Beat on Earnings BUT miss on Revenues and big miss on Capex</u></strong></p> <ul> <li>*MICROSOFT 3Q ADJ EPS 73C, EST. 70C</li> <li>*MICROSOFT 3Q ADJ REV $23.56B, EST. $23.6sB</li> <li>*MICROSOFT 3Q INTELLIGENT CLOUD REV. $6.76B, EST. $6.61B</li> <li><strong>Microsoft 3Q capital expenditures $1.70b, est. $2.27b (range $1.88b-$2.84b)</strong></li> </ul> <p>Probably Nothing...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 319px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>Starbucks Meet/Miss</strong></u></p> <ul> <li>*STARBUCKS 2Q ADJ EPS 45C, EST. 45C</li> <li>*STARBUCKS 2Q COMP SALES +3%, EST. +3.6%</li> </ul> <p>Still we are sure it will catch up...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 321px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>Camera-On-A-Stick Beat</strong></u></p> <ul> <li>*GOPRO 1Q REV. $218.6M, EST. $208.1M</li> <li>*GOPRO 1Q ADJ. LOSS/SHR 44C, EST. LOSS 44C</li> <li>*GOPRO SEES 2Q REV. ABOUT $260M-$280M, EST. $242.9M</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>And Intel Beat and upped its buybacks</strong></u></p> <ul> <li>*INTEL SEES 2Q REV. $14.4B, EST. $14.3B</li> <li>*INTEL SEES 2Q ADJ EPS 68C, EST. 64C</li> <li>*INTEL BOOSTS BUYBACK PROGRAM BY $10 BLN; RAISES YEAR VIEWS</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><strong>Expedia Missed on EPS</strong></u></p> <ul> <li>*EXPEDIA 1Q REV. $2.19B, EST. $2.14B</li> <li>*EXPEDIA 1Q ADJ EPS 5C, EST. 6C</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And the result of that - INTC is down despite raiusing outlook, GPRO pumped and dumped, and EXPE is fading...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 498px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1050" height="872" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> 1Q After Hours Business software Capital Expenditures Computing GAAP Human Interest Microsoft Same Store Sales Technology Technology Thu, 27 Apr 2017 20:14:44 +0000 Tyler Durden 594592 at