http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/wp-content/plugins/uBillboard/Korean%20Buying%20Spree%20Boosts%20Brent%20Price en These Are The Best And Worst U.S. Cities To Own A House http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/these-are-best-and-worst-us-cities-own-house <p>In its latest, January, update of US home prices, <a href="https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/503951_cshomeprice-release-0328.pdf?force_download=true">Case-Shiller reported </a>that the unadjusted 20 city composite index, rose at a 5.9% annual rate, up from 5.7% last month and setting a 31-month high. Perhaps even more notable is that in 17 of 20 metro areas, the pace of home appreciation over the past year was 5% or higher, or more than double the pace of core inflation. And with rents continuing to soar across the country, in many <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-28/where-americas-runaway-inflation-hiding">cases at a double digit clip</a>, not to mention <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-26/how-much-your-health-insurance-payment-about-jump">exploding healthcare costs</a>, one wonders just what the BLS "measures" with its monthly CPI update.</p> <p>In any case, for those lucky Americans who can afford to own a house instead of being stuck renting the New Normal American dream where they are prohibited from peddling fiction as their annual rent increases by 10% or more each year, here is the breakdown of the best and worst cities for home price appreciation in the U.S.</p> <p>At the top, with annual price increases of 10% or more, we find the usual west coast (and thus closest to China) suspects for the second month: Seattle and Portland, followed close behind by Denver and Dallas, which appears to be enjoying the recent revival in shale. What is more surprising is that on the other end we find Cleveland, Washington and - of all places - New York, which was dead last with only 3.2% annual price appreciation. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/top%20cities%20jan.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/top%20cities%20jan_0.jpg" width="500" height="386" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Here are some more observations from Case Shiller on the top 3 cities:&nbsp; Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last 12 months. In January, Seattle led the way with an 11.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 9.7%, and Denver with a 9.2% increase. <strong>Twelve cities reported greater price increases in the year ending January 2017 versus the year ending December 2016.&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>The below charts compare year-over-year returns for Seattle and Portland with different ranges of housing prices (tiers). Tier level analysis from 2011 to present for both Seattle and Portland’s year-over-year returns show housing prices in the high tier to be the most stable, while housing prices in the low tier are the most volatile</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/cs%20seattle_0.jpg" width="500" height="335" /></p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/CS%20portland.jpg" width="500" height="315" /></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="891" height="687" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/top%20cities%20jan.jpg?1490709932" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/these-are-best-and-worst-us-cities-own-house#comments BLS Case-Shiller Case–Shiller index Causes of the United States housing bubble China CPI Denver Denver metropolitan area Geography of Colorado Geography of the United States Housing Prices New Normal Portland, Oregon Seattle United States Department of Housing and Urban Development West Coast Tue, 28 Mar 2017 16:03:32 +0000 Tyler Durden 591893 at http://www.zerohedge.com An "Under The Radar" Trump Trade Unwind http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/under-radar-trump-trade-unwind <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com//macro/an-under-the-radar-trump-trade-unwind"><em>Authored by Kevin Muir via The Macro Tourist blog,</em></a></p> <p>I can&rsquo;t help but laugh at the <strong>sounds of crickets coming from the Trump bulls&rsquo; camp.</strong> Not that long ago these nutjobs were overwhelming markets with their overly optimistic economic growth assumptions. <strong> They believed Trump would usher in a new era of deregulated, pro-growth, &ldquo;art of the deal&rdquo; business friendly economic nirvana. </strong>Yet that narrative has been unceremoniously tossed aside as Trump&rsquo;s deal making prowess has not matched expectations. Trump&rsquo;s failure to pass the health care bill has turned unrealistic optimism into dejected pessimism.</p> <p>Recent market action has been dominated by the unwinding of the &ldquo;Trump reflation trade.&rdquo; <strong> Suddenly everyone is dumping equities and greenbacks, while chasing US fixed income higher.</strong></p> <p>As I am still getting my bearings, I don&rsquo;t have any profound insight into this move. <strong> But I wanted to take a moment to point out a possible way to play this &ldquo;Trump trade&rdquo; unwind that might be slipping under the radar.</strong></p> <p>In the initial weeks following Trump&rsquo;s win, copper rallied hard on the prospects of Trump&rsquo;s infrastructure build out plans.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/HGMar2717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/HGMar2717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/HGMar2717.png" style="height: 444px; width: 600px;" /></a></p> <p>Contrast that to gold, which suffered the opposite reaction.</p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/GoldMar2717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/GoldMar2717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/GoldMar2717.png" style="height: 444px; width: 600px;" /></a></p> <p><em>With the market assuming Trump&rsquo;s policies would revive the real economy, bonds were sold hard, hurting gold. While copper, an industrial metal that would benefit from a renewed economic uptick, was bought with both fists.</em></p> <p><strong>The copper/gold ratio spiked higher.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/CopperGoldMar2717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/CopperGoldMar2717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/CopperGoldMar2717.png" style="height: 444px; width: 600px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>Yet over the past month this ratio has been steadily declining.</strong></p> <p>Obviously both gold and copper are affected by more than just Trump&rsquo;s policies. I would contend that China has at least an equal effect on both commodities (and maybe even more).</p> <p><strong>But if you are looking for a different way to play the unwinding of the Trump reflation trade, then shorting the copper/gold ratio might be a something to look at.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/ResumeMar2717.png"><img alt="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/ResumeMar2717.png" src="http://themacrotourist.com/images/2017/03/ResumeMar2717.png" style="height: 444px; width: 600px;" /></a></p> <p>The long term trend is lower, and this trade has a long way to decline if Trump ends up failing to live up to his hype.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="967" height="505" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170328_macro.jpg?1490707315" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/under-radar-trump-trade-unwind#comments American people of German descent Business Business China Climate change skepticism and denial Copper Donald Trump Economy fixed Politics of the United States Reflation The Apprentice WWE Hall of Fame Tue, 28 Mar 2017 15:45:48 +0000 Tyler Durden 591888 at http://www.zerohedge.com Top Republican Warns: "Government Shut Down Is A Real Possibility, And Wall Street Is Unprepared" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/top-republican-warns-government-shut-down-real-possibility-and-markets-are-unprepare <p>In all the spirited rhetoric over the Republicans' failure to pass Obamacare repeal and confusion over what lies ahead, many pundits and market watchers seem to have forgotten that a far more imminent threat, one due exactly one month from today, is that the US government may shut down. As <a href="https://www.axios.com/the-gop-effort-to-disrupt-their-losing-calculus-2333049498.html">Axios pointed noted</a>, citing a top Republican, after the GOP failure on healthcare, a government shutdown which looms when the continuing resolution runs out April 28 and coincides with Day 100 of the Trump presidency, is "<strong>more likely than not... Wall Street is not expecting a shutdown and the markets are unprepared.</strong>"</p> <p>Axios further notes that the message CEOs took from Friday's fiasco, according to an executive at a money-center bank, was "Holy crap! We may be facing the same crap on a shutdown threat, and on the debt ceiling. Holy crap! We may not get tax reform, or a repatriation bill, or infrastructure spend, or substantial changes to regulations."</p> <p>However, while we agree with the quoted republican that by and large markets are unprepared, they are starting to realize that a government shut down is becoming an all too real possibility, as the following just released note from BMO's strategists Ian Lyngen and Aaron Kohli reveals. </p> <p>The BMO duo note that they have been "<em>fielding questions about ‘what’s next’ for the administration in terms of legislative proposals – tax reforms? An infrastructure program to ‘Repave America</em>’?"</p> <p><em>Here is their response: </em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>While Trump would surely like the tax issue to be front and center, <strong>we’re starting to hear growing concerns that a government shutdown at the end of April may be a real possibility given the rise of the Freedom Caucus. </strong>Moreover, with the Democrats emboldened by their success in averting the repeal of Obamacare (at least for now), there is clearly less incentive to ‘play nice’ with the rest of Congress. In short, rather than clearing the way for tax reforms to take center stage, <strong>the healthcare bill mistakes might have more damaging implications for the effectiveness of the new administration than the Trump camp wants to admit. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In considering the market impact from the healthcare bill, perhaps the question shouldn’t be ‘what happens when tax reforms and infrastructure gets passed?’ and rather ‘<strong>what happens when the government enters a partial-shutdown on April 28th</strong>?’ To the latter question, that would certainly be a bullish event for the Treasury market <strong>and risk-off more broadly</strong>. The most straightforward implications are that the gridlock and relative strength of the opposition in Washington will simply slow pro-business reforms so significantly that markets will effectively price them out<strong>. After all, if Congress cannot keep the lights on in the Capitol building, how much confidence will the market have in their ability tackle the weightier issues of tax and infrastructure spending. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>We’ll be the first to admit that we came into this year expecting that the debt ceiling debate would be a complete non-issue given what (at the time) appeared to be a unified Republican government</strong>. We were clearly a bit too optimistic, or politically naïve, <strong>and what’s currently playing out triggers flashbacks of the summer of 2011 when the US was downgraded by S&amp;P as a polarized Congress wasn’t able to raise the debt ceiling quickly enough</strong>. While one might intuitively think that the risk of a downgrade would increase the cost to the borrower (i.e. higher yields), during the period of April 18, 2011 when S&amp;P put the US on “negative outlook” to August 5, 2011 when the downgrade occurred, 10-year yields dropped from 3.40% to 2.56%. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>There were certainly a number of other more tangible drivers at play behind the rally as well; slowing economic growth, the Fed’s quantitative-easing program, falling inflation expectations, etc. – but our broader point is that <strong>the market’s reaction to another ‘head-to-head’ debt-ceiling debate will be bullish for the Treasury market</strong>. If for no other reason than what it suggests will ultimately be delivered in terms of other reforms.</p> </blockquote> <p>To be sure, traders have demonstrated an amazing ability to reallign the bullish narrative with any change in the underlying facts, so it is quite possible that we are just one month away from the market surging back to all time highs because a shut government is spun as positive for risk assets, the same Trump's healthcare bill failure has resulted in rising stock prices. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="586" height="307" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/washington%20closed.jpg?1490714412" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/top-republican-warns-government-shut-down-real-possibility-and-markets-are-unprepare#comments Business Congress CRAP Debt Ceiling Donald Trump ETC Government shutdowns in the United States Obamacare Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Politics Presidency of Barack Obama Republican government Republican Party United States United States debt ceiling US Federal Reserve US government White House Tue, 28 Mar 2017 15:25:40 +0000 Tyler Durden 591904 at http://www.zerohedge.com VIX Slammed To 11 Handle Sends Dow Green On Week http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/vix-slammed-11-handle-sends-dow-green-week <p><strong>Desperate to avoid the worst losing streak in 39 years, </strong>the machines are working overtime today to crush VIX and ignite momo in The Dow...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/21/20170328_VIX.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/21/20170328_VIX_0.jpg" width="600" height="365" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And USDJPY is also being worked hard...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/21/20170328_VIX1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/21/20170328_VIX1_0.jpg" width="600" height="365" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Let's see what happens once Europe closes.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="2009" height="1223" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170328_VIX.jpg?1490713748" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/vix-slammed-11-handle-sends-dow-green-week#comments Food and drink Ignite Mathematical finance Momo Momo Technical analysis VIX Tue, 28 Mar 2017 15:09:19 +0000 Tyler Durden 591901 at http://www.zerohedge.com David Einhorn's Presentation How GM Can Unlock Between $13 And $38 Billion In Value http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/david-einhorns-presentation-how-gm-can-unlock-between-13-and-38-billion-value <p>Moments ago, General Motors holder Greenlight Capital released a presentation in which David Einhorn recommended that GM should distribute, on a tax-free basis, a second class of common stock that the holder calls “Dividend Shares.” </p> <p>Greenlight wants GM to split its common stock into two classes: one that pays dividends and a second that would entitle its holders to all earnings, including stock buybacks, after the dividend is paid, according to people familiar with the matter. Greenlight believes the move could attract new investors who are willing to pay more for potential earnings growth. GM has a market value of about $52.2 billion, and it pays an annual dividend of $1.52 per share. </p> <p>The Dividend Shares should trade separately from the existing common stock. As shown in the presentation below, <strong>Einhorn believes that the proposed plan will unlock between $13 billion -$38 billion of shareholder value. </strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/einhorn%20prezo.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/einhorn%20prezo_0.jpg" width="500" height="321" /></a></p> <p>However, as CNBC's David Faber reports, GM said to not agree with Greenlight’s proposal as it would jeopardize GM's IG investment rating. Even so, GM shares are up 3% after Einhorn's activist presentation. </p> <p>As Bloomberg confirms, GM rejected the proposal to create 2 classes of stock, saying proposal is too risky and David Einhorn’s plan is “unproven." Somewhat ironically, GM also said that Einhorn proposal could lower share price, and that it has spent months talking about the proposal. </p> <p>To be sure, this is not the first time Greenlight has pushed for higher prices at GM, which is one of his top holdings: Einhorn has said as far back as October 2012 that GM had a cheap valuation. </p> <p>His full presentation below (<a href="https://www.greenlightcapital.com/934618.pdf">link</a>).</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/343290943/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-bT8WRYO3a4K878Pr3Kw9&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1258" height="807" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/einhorn%20prezo.jpg?1490712888" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/david-einhorns-presentation-how-gm-can-unlock-between-13-and-38-billion-value#comments Business Common stock Corporate finance David Einhorn David Einhorn David Faber Dividend Economy Equity securities Finance General Motors General Motors Greenlight Greenlight Capital Money Share repurchase Stock market Tue, 28 Mar 2017 14:55:25 +0000 Tyler Durden 591900 at http://www.zerohedge.com White House On Lockdown As Secret Service Investigate "Suspicious Package" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/white-house-lockdown-secret-service-investigate-suspicious-package <p>Just days after a <a href="https://sputniknews.com/us/201703191051736197-white-house-bomb/">man approached the White House checkpoint saying he had a bomb inside his car</a>, Secret Service report that as of 1025ET, The White House is on<strong> lockdown as they investigate a suspicious package</strong>.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">.<a href="https://twitter.com/SecretService">@SecretService</a> investigating suspicious package near <a href="https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse">@WhiteHouse</a> grounds. Road closures in effect.</p> <p>— U.S. Secret Service (@SecretService) <a href="https://twitter.com/SecretService/status/846734327794819073">March 28, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>As a reminder,<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-18/another-intruder-attempts-jump-white-house-fence-immediately-taken-down-secret-servi"> earlier in March, </a>an intruder carrying a backpack breached the outer perimeter of the White House and was arrested by the US Secret Service near the south entrance to the residence.</p> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">North grounds of WH on lockdown. Suspicious package has to be checked out. <a href="https://t.co/qL3h0fJ2M0">pic.twitter.com/qL3h0fJ2M0</a></p> <p>— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) <a href="https://twitter.com/markknoller/status/846737376789581825">March 28, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">BREAKING: White House evacuating the North lawn <a href="https://t.co/l0iyAcP8gD">pic.twitter.com/l0iyAcP8gD</a></p> <p>— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) <a href="https://twitter.com/TreyYingst/status/846729577695195138">March 28, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1000" height="541" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170328_WH.jpg?1490712693" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/white-house-lockdown-secret-service-investigate-suspicious-package#comments Assassination of William McKinley Crime Criminal justice Law enforcement Lockdown Mark Knoller Money forgery Politics Professional wrestling Protective security units Secret Service TNA Lockdown Twitter Twitter U.S. Secret Service United States Secret Service White House White House White House Whitehouse Wrestling Tue, 28 Mar 2017 14:51:49 +0000 Tyler Durden 591899 at http://www.zerohedge.com Trump To Sign "Energy Independence" Order Killing Obama's Climate Change Initiatives http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/trump-sign-energy-independence-order-killing-obamas-climate-change-initiatives <p>Coming off a brutal Trumpcare defeat, delivered by members of his own party no less, Trump has decided to return to a strategy of progressing his policy initiatives through executive order.&nbsp; As such, <strong>later today President Trump is set to sign a sweeping new "Energy Independence" executive order aimed at promoting domestic oil, coal and natural gas production by reversing much of Obama's efforts to address climate change via his "Clean Power Plan".<br /></strong></p> <p>Obama’s Clean Power Plan was designed to cut carbon dioxide emissions from electricity by 32% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels and resulted in the collapse of the coal industry, including several large bankruptcies.&nbsp; That said, the initiative has been in legal limbo since the Supreme Court stayed it while it was reviewed by a federal appeals court. The Trump administration now is expected ask that court to put the matter on hold to allow it time to revise or undo the measure -- an action environmentalists have vowed to challenge.</p> <p>Here is a summary of what Trump's EO will seek to accomplish, via <a href="https://www.axios.com/trump-climate-change-2332333931.html">Axios</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <ul> <li><strong>Begin undoing the EPA Clean Power Plan</strong> than mandates cuts in carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants.</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>Undo several policies that wove climate change into federal decision-making</strong>, such as the Obama administration's tally of a metric called the social cost of carbon, and a White House directive that agencies factor climate change into a range of permitting decisions.</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>Direct the Interior Department to <strong>end its moratorium on coal leasing on federal lands.</strong></li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>Direct EPA and Interior to review rules that govern oil and natural gas development, including EPA's methane emissions rules for new sources and Interior's rules that govern fracking on federal lands.</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>Scuttle a White House directive that required agencies to consider climate change when reviewing energy, infrastructure and other proposed projects</strong> under the National Environmental Policy Act.</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>Require federal agencies to broadly review existing rules and policies that might thwart energy development. They have 180 days to craft recommendations to address the problems.</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>Rescind several of Obama's policy memos and orders on tackling climate policy broadly, such as the broad 2013 strategy document.</li> </ul> </blockquote> <p>Speaking with George Stephanopoulos over the weekend, EPA Chief Scott Pruitt said that, among other things, Trump's forthcoming executive order would <strong>"address the past administration's effort to kill jobs across this country through the clean power plan."</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"This is about making sure we have a pro-growth and pro-environment approach to how we do regulation in this country.</strong>&nbsp; For too long, over the last several years, we've accepted the narrative that if you're pro-growth, pro-jobs you're anti-environment and that's just not where we've been in the country.&nbsp; <strong>And the executive order is going to address the past administration's effort to kill jobs across this country through the clean power plan."</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/lw5_RjtuYL8?ecver=2" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So who are the winners and losers from today's EO?&nbsp; Domestic oil and gas production could get a long-term boost to the extent prices recovery but for now it's limited by economic fundamentals rather than regulations.&nbsp; Coal, on the other hand, could get a boost as the Trump EO would extend the useful life of certain coal plants that were slated to be decommissioned under Obama's rules.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Oil and gas production:</strong></span> <strong>These changes are unlikely to have an outsized effect, but could influence drilling and production decisions a little.</strong> Easing regulations matters much less than fundamentals. While lots of Washington is paying attention today, a date that matters way more is May 25, when OPEC meets to decide whether to extend production cuts that have helped prices rebound from the dumps of 2015 and 2016 and helped put the U.S. oil boom back in motion.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Infrastructure.</strong></span><strong>:</strong> This matters. Industry is more bullish here about a meaningful change from the Obama era — especially if the early moves on Keystone and Dakota Access are replicated more broadly. "Of all those things, the one that might matter the most, just because it might pull (oil) production forward a little quicker, is the whole permitting issue around infrastructure," veteran oil analyst Bobby Tudor said on a podcast released Monday from the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Coal:</strong></span> <strong>Coal stocks could get a bump from the order, just like they did when Trump won in November. Trump may slightly alter the rate and trajectory of the industry's long-term projected decline in the U.S.</strong>, where mining and power generation faces headwinds from inexpensive natural gas, earlier air pollution rules, renewables and other factors. But he probably can't really turn things around. Let's turn it over to the consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners: "[W]e see few policy levers available to either Congress or the Trump Administration sufficient to offset organic, power-sector coal displacement by modestly priced natural gas," they said in a recent research note.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Renewables:</strong></span> Killing the Clean Power Plan (which has already been frozen by the Supreme Court) doesn't help renewables, but probably doesn't hurt much either, at least not for a while, thanks to other forces like tax credits that were extended for five years in late 2015, state green energy mandates, and falling costs. "We expect there to be a relatively, strong continuing build of renewables over the next several years regardless of what happens with the CPP," Ethan Zindler, a senior analyst with Bloomberg New Energy Finance, tells Axios.</p> </blockquote> <p>So what happens next?&nbsp; As Axios points out simply: a whole lot of <strong>"bureaucracy and lawsuits."</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <ul> <li>Some of the policies that the order targets, such as the White House guidance on factoring climate change into National Environmental Policy Act reviews, can be largely undone pretty fast.</li> </ul> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li>But final regulations like the Clean Power Plan will take a long time, perhaps years, to formally unwind under the detailed requirements of administrative procedure. Look for environmental groups to battle the outcome in court.</li> </ul> </blockquote> <p>Meanwhile <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-energy-idUSKBN16Z09F">environmental groups</a> are already out promising long, expensive court battles.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"These actions are an assault on American values and they endanger the health, safety and prosperity of every American,"</strong> said billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer, the head of activist group NextGen Climate.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Green group Earthjustice said it will fight the order both in and out of court. <strong>“This order ignores the law and scientific reality,"</strong> said the group's president Trip Van Noppen. </p> </blockquote> <p>The end of a long journey from 2012 from Trump...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/265895292191248385">November 6, 2012</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="816" height="508" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/Trump%20Digs%20Coal.JPG?1490702220" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/trump-sign-energy-independence-order-killing-obamas-climate-change-initiatives#comments Carbon Emissions Clean Power Plan Climate change policy in the United States Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy Congress Department of the Interior Donald Trump Environment Environmental policy in the United States Environmental policy under the Trump administration Environmental Protection Agency Global Warming Natural environment Natural Gas Obama administration OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Political positions of Donald Trump Presidency of Barack Obama Presidency of Donald Trump Reality recovery Supreme Court Trump Administration United States United States Environmental Protection Agency White House White House Tue, 28 Mar 2017 14:39:02 +0000 Tyler Durden 591881 at http://www.zerohedge.com Meet SAM, Brick Laying Robot That Does The Work Of 6 Humans http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-27/meet-sam-brick-laying-robot-does-work-6-humans <p>In the latest installment of our "Dear Bernie" series, posts intended to inform the Vermont Senator about the unintended, negative consequences of minimum wage hikes, we present SAM (Semi-Automated Mason), a brick laying robot designed and engineered by Construction Robotics out of New York.&nbsp; <strong>While SAM can do the work of 6 unionized masons each day, he never requires a break, benefits or a paycheck.</strong></p> <p>Here's a look at SAM in action:</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bDRCWnsFnC4?ecver=2" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Each SAM can be rented at a monthly cost of ~$3,300 according to <a href="https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3186505/bricklaying-robot-that-works-faster-and-harder-than-humans-could-put-thousands-of-brit-builders-out-of-work/">The Sun</a>.&nbsp; <strong>With an average efficiency of 3,000 bricks per day, that breaks down to about 4.5 cents per brick.</strong>&nbsp; Meanwhile, using using Bernie's preferred $15 per hour minimum wage rate, plus benefits, and a <strong>daily efficiency of about 500 bricks brings the human labor cost equivalent to roughly 32 cents per brick, or a little over 7x.</strong></p> <p>Of course, SAM can't completely eliminate the need for masons on work sites just yet, as human assistance is still needed to load bricks and mortar into the system and to clean up excess mortar from joints after bricks have been laid.&nbsp; That said, <strong>Construction Robotics estimates that overall labor costs for bricklaying projects can be reduced by at least 50%.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/03/27/2017.03.27%20-%20SAM%203.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/03/27/2017.03.27%20-%20SAM%203_0.jpg" alt="SAM" width="600" height="123" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/03/27/2017.03.27%20-%20SAM%202.JPG"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/03/27/2017.03.27%20-%20SAM%202_0.JPG" alt="SAM" width="600" height="398" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And while Bernie is unlikely to rent a SAM to construct his next <a href="http://heavy.com/news/2016/08/bernie-sanders-new-house-photos-pictures-lake-home-jane-net-worth-price-north-hero-vermont-purchased/">$575,000 lake house</a>, we hear that someone may be taking bids for an <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-18/trump-issues-bid-guidelines-beautiful-30-foot-border-wall-must-be-aesthetically-plea">impenetrable, yet "aesthetically pleasing", 30-foot border wall</a> that will span nearly 2,000 miles.&nbsp; </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="912" height="437" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017.03.27%20-%20SAM%201.JPG?1490645014" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-27/meet-sam-brick-laying-robot-does-work-6-humans#comments Bricks Construction Economy Labor Labour law Labour relations Marketing Masonry Minimum wage Technology Tue, 28 Mar 2017 14:35:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 591855 at http://www.zerohedge.com Watch Live: Paul Ryan Holds Press Conference On What Happens Next http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/watch-live-paul-ryan-holds-press-conference-what-happens-next <p>Paul Ryan and GOP leaders are holding a press conference to discuss next steps in the aftermath of Friday&#39;s failure to repeal Obamacare, and as <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/report-paul-ryan-tells-gop-donors-house-will-still-pursue-healthcare-reform/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&amp;linkId=35922836">CBS reports</a>, among other discussion topics, the GOP is currently contemplating ways to revive the repeal of Obamacare, with CNN adding that Ryan may potentially re-engage the Freedom Caucus.</p> <p>Speaker Paul Ryan told GOP donors Monday that the House will continue pursuing health care reform despite Republicans&rsquo; failure to pass legislation last week to repeal and replace Obamacare as they had promised to do, according to The Washington Post. The Wisconsin Republican spoke to donors on a phone call through his political organization, the report said, and he explained that they would work on health care on &ldquo;two tracks.&rdquo;</p> <p>&ldquo;We are going to keep getting at this thing,&rdquo; Ryan said, according to the Post, which obtained a recording of the call. &ldquo;We&rsquo;re not going to just all of a sudden abandon health care and move on to the rest. We are going to move on with rest of our agenda, keep that on track, while we work the health care problem. .&thinsp;.&thinsp;. It&rsquo;s just that valuable, that important.&rdquo;</p> <p>CNN added the Freedom Caucus&#39; report:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Freedom Caucus Chair Meadows say he doesn&#39;t think members should go home for recess until they pass healthcare bill, wants to get to &quot;yes&quot;</p> <p>&mdash; Deirdre Walsh (@deirdrewalshcnn) <a href="https://twitter.com/deirdrewalshcnn/status/846726147601829889">March 28, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">No talk of moving on to tax reform or infrastructure at House GOP mtg - member after member got up and pushed to finish health care bill</p> <p>&mdash; Deirdre Walsh (@deirdrewalshcnn) <a href="https://twitter.com/deirdrewalshcnn/status/846726512233664513">March 28, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Elsewhere, Republican Rep. Mo Brooks, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, said he&rsquo;s prepared to move forward with a discharge petition on his repeal-only bill if movement does not occur on Obamacare repeal and replace. Brooks says House Speaker Paul Ryan is talking about moving forward with health care, and his understanding is that it is &ldquo;fairly immediate&rdquo; plan. Brooks says if that doesn&rsquo;t happen, he&rsquo;d file the discharge petition, which would compel a vote if a majority of House members sign on to it. That said, as Bloomberg adds, discharge petitions rarely succeed, as they&rsquo;re usually a minority tactic and majority-party members tend to be reluctant to buck leadership that publicly</p> <p>It is unclear if the market will be able to quickly unspin its latest narrative: recall that over the past 48 hours, the &quot;plot&quot; was revised and now Trump&#39;s ability to focus solely on tax reform while leaving&nbsp; healthcare reform has been spun as positive for stocks.</p> <p><em>Watch the press conference live below:</em></p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/_67n-OfWmUU" width="500"></iframe></p> <p>* * *</p> <p>As <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-27/what-trumps-revised-agenda-timeline-looks-one-chart">reported yesterday</a>, here is Barclays&#39; take on what the revised Trump agenda looks like at this moment.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/trump%20agenda%201.jpg"><img height="349" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/27/trump%20agenda%201_0.jpg" width="500" /></a></p> <p><strong>Healthcare may negatively affect tax reform negotiation, as the GOP needs to transition from a party of opposition to a party that governs.</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>Healthcare: House delays American Health Care Act (AHCA)</strong> &ndash; The GOP&rsquo;s goal is to minimize intra-party struggles, re-focus on comprehensive tax reform, and leave the option to revisit healthcare <ul> <li>GOP calls to repeal and replace ACA over the past seven years were more political rhetoric than an actual plan. GOP has not resolved an internal dispute with healthcare&rsquo;s three-legged stool &ndash; the individual mandate, providing subsidies, and enforcing the guarantee for pre-existing conditions &ndash; as removing any one of them requires trade-offs between cost and coverage</li> <li>We expect an intense intra-GOP fight, especially between the president and Speaker Ryan. There are concerns that the GOP domestic policy agenda could dissolve, but we think this delay will increase efforts to pass tax reform (or targeted tax cuts) before the Nov 2018 mid-term elections</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Tax Reform or Tax Cuts</strong>: GOP to re-focus immediately on taxes and pursue comprehensive reform, with a goal of passing legislation by August, well before the 2018 mid-terms <ul> <li><strong>Outlook</strong>: Comprehensive tax reform will very likely meet significant obstacles, as there are limited revenue raisers to offset the proposed substantial tax cuts. We think tax reform could evolve to tax cuts (corporate rates possibly from 35% to 20-30%) and a repatriation of foreign earnings (potentially taxed at 8-15%). The House-proposed border adjustment tax (BAT) faces hurdles, given concerns of price increases, WTO compliance, and possible domestic job losses. Current costs of individual tax cuts will likely alarm fiscal hawks; we expect a more muted plan than the current one</li> </ul> </li> <li><strong>Trade</strong>: Administration aims to implement protectionist measures (eg, tariffs), as they view this form of economic nationalism as spurring long-term growth <ul> <li>NAFTA process has started; expect formal notice to trading partners shortly</li> </ul> </li> </ul> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="645" height="363" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/paul%20ryan%20teaser_2.jpg?1490710650" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/watch-live-paul-ryan-holds-press-conference-what-happens-next#comments 115th United States Congress A Better Way American Health Care Act Barack Obama Barclays Health Internal Revenue Code Labor Nationalism Obamacare Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act replacement proposals Politics Republican Party Statutory law United States World Trade Organization Tue, 28 Mar 2017 14:29:09 +0000 Tyler Durden 591897 at http://www.zerohedge.com Tuesday Humor: Richmond Fed Smashes Expectation by Six Standard Deviations http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/tuesday-humor-richmond-fed-smashes-expectation-six-standard-deviations <p>The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey has now<strong> risen for 7 straight months, soaring to 22 in March - the highest since April 2010. </strong></p> <p><strong>&nbsp;</strong>This smashed expectations by over six standard deviations as new orders, employees, workweek, and wages all soared. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/21/20170328_richmond1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/21/20170328_richmond1_0.jpg" width="600" height="224" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>Given the stagnation of industrial production, there must be something very special in Richmond...</strong></em></p> <p><em><strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/21/20170328_richmond.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/03/21/20170328_richmond_0.jpg" width="600" height="315" /></a></strong></em></p> <p>Copnsider - the last time Richmond Fed printed this high, Industrial Production was growing at over 8% YoY!!<em><strong> Today it is up 0.3%!<br /></strong></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="960" height="504" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170328_richmond.jpg?1490710973" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-28/tuesday-humor-richmond-fed-smashes-expectation-six-standard-deviations#comments Business Economic stagnation Economics Economy Geography of California Richmond Fed Richmond, California Richmond, Virginia US Federal Reserve Workweek and weekend Yoy Tue, 28 Mar 2017 14:27:03 +0000 Tyler Durden 591898 at http://www.zerohedge.com