en Apple Does Right By Its Users... And Advertisers Are Displeased <p><a href=""><em>Authored by Andres Arrieta via The Electronic Frontier Foundation,</em></a></p> <p><span>With the new </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>Safari 11 update</span></a><span>, <strong>Apple takes an important step to protect your privacy, specifically how your browsing habits are tracked and shared with parties other than the sites you visit. </strong></span></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 331px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span>In response, Apple is </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>getting criticized by the advertising industry</span></a></strong><span><strong> for <em>&quot;destroying the Internet&#39;s economic model.&quot;</em> </strong>While the advertising industry is trying to shift the conversation to what they call the economic model of the Internet, the conversation must instead focus on the indiscriminate tracking of users and the violation of their privacy.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>When you browse the web, you might think that your information only lives in the service you choose to visit. <strong>However, many sites load elements that share your data with third parties.</strong> First-party cookies are set by the domain you are visiting, allowing sites to recognize you from your previous visits but not to track you across other sites. For example, if you visit first and then, your visit would only be known to each site. In contrast, third-party cookies are those set by any other domains than the one you are visiting, and were created to circumvent the original design of cookies. In this case, when you would visit and loads as well, would be able to track you an all sites that you visit where its tracker is loaded.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><span>Websites commonly use third-party tracking to allow analytics services, data brokerages, and advertising companies to set unique cookies. This data is aggregated into individual profiles and fed into a real-time auction process where companies get to bid for the right to serve an ad to a user when they visit a page. <strong>This mechanism can be used for general behavioral advertising but also for &ldquo;retargeting.&rdquo; </strong>In the latter case, &nbsp;the vendor of a product viewed on one site buys the chance to target the user later with ads for the same product on other sites around the web. As a user, you should be able to expect you will be treated with respect and that your personal browsing habits will be protected. When websites share your behavior without your knowledge, that trust is broken.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><strong><span>Safari has been blocking third-party cookies by default since Safari 5.1, </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>released in 2010</span></a></strong><span><strong>, and has been key to Apple&rsquo;s emerging identity as a defender of user privacy. </strong>Safari distinguished between these seedy cookies from those placed on our machines by first parties - sites we visit intentionally. From 2011 onwards, advertising companies have been devising ways to </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>circumvent these protections</span></a><span>. One of the biggest retargeters, Criteo, even acquired a </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>patent</span></a><span> on a technique to subvert this protection</span><span>. Criteo, however, was not the first company to circumvent Safari&#39;s user protection. In 2012, </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>Google paid 22.5 million dollars </span></a><span>to settle an action by the FTC after they used another workaround to track Safari users with cookies from the DoubleClick Ad Network. Safari had an exception to the third-party ban for submission forms where the user entered data deliberately (e.g. to sign up). Google exploited this </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>loophole</span></a><span> when Safari users visited sites participating in Google&#39;s advertising network to set a unique cookie.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><strong><span>The new Safari update, with </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>Intelligent Tracking Prevention</span></a><span>, closes loopholes around third-party cookie-blocking by using machine learning to distinguish the sites a user has a </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>relationship</span></a></strong><span><strong> with from those they don&rsquo;t, and treating the cookies differently based on that. </strong>When you visit a site, any cookies that are set can be used in a third-party context for twenty-four hours. During the first twenty-four hours the third-party cookies can be used to track the user, but afterward can only be used to login and not to track. This means that sites that you visit regularly are not significantly affected. The companies this will hit hardest are ad companies unconnected with any major publisher.</span></p> <p dir="ltr"><em><span>At EFF <strong>we understand the need for sites to build a successful business model, but this should not come at the expense of people&#39;s privacy. </strong>This is why we launched initiatives like the </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>EFF DNT Policy</span></a><span> and tools like </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>Privacy Badger</span></a><span>. These initiatives and tools target </span><span>tracking</span><span>, not advertising. Rather than attacking Apple for serving their users, the advertising industry should treat this as an opportunity to change direction and develop advertising models that respect (and not exploit) users.</span></em></p> <p dir="ltr"><span><strong>Apple has been a powerful force in user privacy on a mass scale in recent years, </strong>as reflected by their support for encryption, the intelligent processing of user data on device rather than in the cloud, and limitations on ad tracking on mobile and desktop. By some estimates, Apple </span><a href=";qpcustomd=1&amp;qptimeframe=Y" target="_blank"><span>handles 30%</span></a><span> of all pages on mobile. Safari&#39;s innovations are not the </span><a href="" target="_blank"><span>silver bullet that will stop all tracking</span></a><span>,</span><a href=""><span> </span></a><span>but by stepping up to protect their users&rsquo; privacy Apple has set a challenge for other browser developers. <em><strong>When the user&#39;s privacy interests conflict with the business models of the advertising technology complex, is it possible to be neutral?</strong></em> We hope that Mozilla, Microsoft and Google will follow Apple, <a href="" target="_blank">Brave</a> and <a href="" target="_blank">Opera&#39;s</a> lead.</span></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="806" height="444" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Apple Behavioral targeting Business Computer access control Computing default Electronic Frontier Foundation encryption Federal Trade Commission Firefox add-ons Google Google Chrome extensions HTTP cookie Internet privacy machine learning Online advertising Safari Software Targeted advertising Technology World Wide Web Mon, 25 Sep 2017 13:10:44 +0000 Tyler Durden 604112 at "How Much Further?": Goldman Warns This Is The 5th Longest Streak Ever Without A 5% Correction <p>Goldman is becoming increasingly worried that a correction - and a sizable one at that - appears imminent.</p> <p>Two weeks after the investment bank <a href="">announced </a>that according to its Bear Market Risk Indicator the odds of a <a href="">crash have risen to 67</a>%...</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="359" /></a></p> <p>... on Monday morning, Goldman cross-asset strategist Ian Wright cautions in his latest Kickstart letter that <strong>the S&amp;P is now rapidly closing in on the longest period in history without a 5% correction, and that as of today, only 4 times in history has more time passed without a 5% correction. </strong>The warning follows similar caution from Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin who as discussed yesterday, has a very bleak outlook for US stocks, and expects the S&amp;P to slid to 2,400 by the end of the year, remain unchanged through the end of 2018 and rise just 100 points by the end of 2019. </p> <p>As Wright points out today in a note titled "<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>How much further?</strong></span>" in which he reminds the firm's clients that just last week it reiterated its <strong>12-month OW equities position in our asset allocation</strong>, "our sense is that most clients are in agreement, being "reluctantly long" equity given absolute returns are likely to be lower in the future relative to the recent past, but on a relative basis the asset class still appears the most attractive." </p> <p>And yet, <a href="">just like Kostin yesterday</a>, Wright says that given this positioning and the good level of current growth leading to concerns about it potentially slowing, "<strong>increasingly the most common question we receive is "when will the market crack?" </strong>He goes on to show that <strong>based purely on the length and resilience of the current bull market this question makes sense, particularly now - the S&amp;P 500 is currently in the fifth longest streak in history without a 5% correction, and should the pattern continue it will become the longest streak ever by mid-December</strong>.</p> <p>That said, Goldman - tactically long equities - is not suggesting a crash is imminent, and caveats that "low volatility rallies can last a long time, and that valuations can be a poor signal for returns and drawdowns in the near-term." </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>In our view, these dynamics are again at play currently, with any vol being sold on spikes and dips being bought quickly, as the current low vol regime appears intact. </strong></p> </blockquote> <p><strong></strong>So in light of all the evidence of an imminent correction, what is Goldman's advice to clients? Why, do nothing of course. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Our US equity strategists recently argued against an imminent correction, and our global equity strategist sees low risk of a bear market starting. And while most of the recent central bank meetings (ECB, BoE, Fed) all pointed to tightening policy, we think risky assets should be able to digest higher yields as long as the growth backdrop remains supportive, which we expect. </p> </blockquote> <p>This, despite two weeks ago laying out no less than 7 reasons why Goldman's clients just can't wait to get out.</p> <ul> <li><strong>History. </strong>Many investors argue the bull market is “long in the tooth” and will soon come to an end. </li> <li><strong>Volatility </strong>(or lack thereof). Realized 3-month vol is nearly the lowest in 50 years. Implied vol as measured by the VIX stands at 12, a 6th percentile event since 1990.</li> <li><strong>Valuation. </strong>Equity valuations are stretched on almost every metric. The typical stock trades at the 98th percentile and the overall index at the 87th percentile relative to the past 40 years</li> <li><strong>Economics. </strong>The current US economic expansion just celebrated its 8th birthday making it one of the longest stretches without a recession</li> <li><strong>Fed policy. </strong>The FOMC has lifted the funds rate by 100 bp since it started tightening in December 2015. During prior hiking cycles, equity P/E multiples typically fell but multiples have actually expanded during the past two years.</li> <li><strong>Interest rates.</strong> Two months ago, Treasury yields equaled 2.4%, ten-year implied inflation was 1.7%, and the S&amp;P 500 stood at 2410.</li> <li><strong>Politics. </strong>President Trump’s fluid positions on domestic policy disputes in Washington, D.C. and geopolitical gamesmanship with Pyongyang and Beijing make political forecasting a precarious activity.</li> </ul> <p>Meanwhile, the market is now well over 300 days without a 5% correction and counting...</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="344" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="957" height="578" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Asset allocation Bear Market BOE Business Corporate finance Equity Equity securities European Central Bank Finance Futures contract Investment management Mathematical finance Money S&P S&P 500 Stock market Technical analysis US Federal Reserve VIX Volatility Washington D.C. Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:52:53 +0000 Tyler Durden 604114 at Trump Escalates War With NFL In Early Tweetstorm <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Update:</strong></span>&nbsp; Proving that he was just getting warmed up earlier this morning with his latest rant against the NFL, Trump now seems to want '<strong>#StandForOurAnthem</strong>' to go viral.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="und"><a href="">#StandForOurAnthem</a></p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="">September 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>* * *</p> <p>After igniting an NFL firestorm over the weekend with a series of tweetstorms bashing players who refused to stand for the national anthem (something we covered in detail <a href="">here</a>), Trump is at it again this morning with new tweets highlighting the disgruntled crowds that booed the kneeling players.&nbsp; </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>"Many people booed the players who kneeled yesterday (which was a small percentage of total).</strong> These are fans who demand respect for our Flag!"</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"The issue of kneeling has nothing to do with race. <strong>It is about respect for our Country, Flag and National Anthem. NFL must respect this!"</strong></p> </blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Many people booed the players who kneeled yesterday (which was a small percentage of total). These are fans who demand respect for our Flag!</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="">September 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">The issue of kneeling has nothing to do with race. It is about respect for our Country, Flag and National Anthem. NFL must respect this!</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="">September 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Some of the loudest such 'boos' came for the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium when a number of Patriots kneeled for the anthem.</p> <p><iframe src="" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Meanwhile, Tom Brady responded to Trump's continued attacks this morning saying that he "disagrees" with the President and thinks his tweets are "just divisive."&nbsp; Presumably, that means that Brady is of the opinion that exploiting his star power to make a political statement is not equally divisive?&nbsp; Per <a href="">WEEI</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>“Yeah, I certainly disagree with what he said. I thought it was just divisive,"</strong> Brady said. "Like I said, I just want to support my teammates. I am never one to say, ‘Oh, that is wrong. That is right.’ I do believe in what I believe in. I believe in bringing people together and respect and love and trust. Those are the values that my parents instilled in me. That is how I try and live every day. I have been blessed to be in locker rooms with guys all over the United States over the course of my career. Some of my great friends are from Florida, Virginia, New York, Montana, Colorado, Texas. The one thing about football is it brings so many guys together — guys you would never have the opportunity to be around. Whether it was in college, and all the way into the pros. We’re all different, we’re all unique. That is what makes us all special.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"Hopefully it brings everyone together. I think that is what unity and love — like I said after the game, those are the things that concern me. When you’re in a locker room full of 53 players, you’re working to a common goal. You support the guys that you play with and you support your coaches, coaches support you. You just do the best you can do.<strong> You’re navigating through life. These things aren’t easy. Everyone deals with different challenges in their life and you respect everyone’s opinions and views. </strong>You don’t have to agree with everything. It’s hard to agree with your own wife on everything from day-to-day. I have so much respect for my teammates and what we’re trying to accomplish. Hopefully we can keep marching toward this end of the season, keep making improvements, get better and win more football games.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Brady said he heard the boo's during and after the anthem</strong> from some in the crowd and said people can do what they want to do.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Yeah, I did," he said. <strong>"No, I think everyone has the right to do whatever they want to do. If you don’t agree, that is fine. You can voice your disagreement, I think that is great. It’s part of our democracy. As long as it is done in a peaceful, respectful way, that is what our country has been all about.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>On the other hand, and not terribly surprisingly, NASCAR's strong condemnation of protesting the national anthem, which Richard Petty said would earn anyone on his team an immediate dismissal, drew praise from the White House.&nbsp; Per the <a href="">Associated Press</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>It appeared no drivers, crew or other team members participated in a protest during the national anthem to start the NASCAR Cup series race Sunday in Loudon, New Hampshire. Several team owners and executives had said they wouldn’t want anyone in their organizations to protest.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Richard Childress, who was Dale Earnhardt’s longtime team owner, said of protesting, “It’ll get you a ride on a Greyhound bus.” Childress says he told his team that “anybody that works for me should respect the country we live in. So many people gave their lives for it. This is America.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Hall of Fame driver Richard Petty’s sentiments took it a step further, saying: <strong>“Anybody that don’t stand up for the anthem oughta be out of the country. Period. What got ’em where they’re at? The United States.”</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>When asked if a protester at Richard Petty Motorsports would be fired, he said, “You’re right.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">So proud of NASCAR and its supporters and fans. They won't put up with disrespecting our Country or our Flag - they said it loud and clear!</p> <p>— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href="">September 25, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Of course, it's only a matter of time until we see if this controversy caused any dips in ratings for the increasingly politicized NFL.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="277" height="132" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> American people of German descent Business Climate change skepticism and denial Donald Trump Florida Greyhound Bus National Football League New England New England Patriots Politics of the United States ratings Sports The Apprentice The Star-Spangled Banner United States White House White House WWE Hall of Fame Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:26:34 +0000 Tyler Durden 604111 at WTI Hits 4-Month Highs Over $51 Amid Kurdish Referendum Concerns <p>For the third time in 10 days, WTI Crude futures broke above $51 (this time running stops back to its highest level since May) amid<strong> growing concerns over the potential reactions to the results of the forthcoming Kurdish independence vote</strong>.</p> <p><a href=""><img height="293" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p><strong>Positive comments from Russia and OPEC over clearing the global glut helped</strong>, but it is the potential for supply disruption from the Kurdish independence vote that is having the most impact on WTI and Brent.</p> <p><a href=""><img height="359" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>President Tayyip Erdogan warned on Monday<strong> Turkey could cut off the pipeline that carries oil from northern Iraq to the outside world</strong>, intensifying pressure on the Kurdish autonomous region over its independence referendum.</p> <p>The Kurds, which make up about one-fifth of Iraq&rsquo;s 38 million people, have long-standing grievances&nbsp;against the government in Baghdad. They won a large degree of autonomy under the post-Saddam Iraqi constitution adopted in 2005, and nationalism has deepened since Kurdish troops scored battlefield successes against Islamic State and brought the city of Kirkuk under their control. Turkey fears the independence vote could set back its own campaign to stamp out a Kurdish insurgency it&rsquo;s been battling for three decades.</p> <p><strong>Erdogan spoke shortly after Prime Minister Binali Yildirum said Ankara could take punitive measures involving borders and air space against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the referendum and would not recognize the outcome.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="2734" height="1335" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Central Kurdish Crude Geography of Asia Iranian Kurdistan Iraq Iraqi Kurdistan Kurdish nationalism Kurdish–Turkish conflict Kurdistan Kurdistan independence movement Kurdistan Regional Government Kurdistan Regional Government Kurds Nationalism northern Iraq OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Politics Politics of Iraq Turkey War Western Asia Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:16:13 +0000 Tyler Durden 604110 at Republicans Scramble To Revise Obamacare Repeal Bill As Defeat Looms <p>After Texas Senator <a href="">Ted Cruz revealed Sunday </a>that he wouldn&rsquo;t support Graham-Cassidy, effectively quashing the Republicans&rsquo; chances of repealing and replacing Obamacare before the crucial Sept. 30 deadline, <a href="">Bloomberg reported</a> that the GOP senate leadership was scrambling late Sunday to revise the bill to win support from a small but critical group of holdout senators and secure the 50 votes needed to allow the tie-breaking vote in favor cast by Vice President Mike Pence.</p> <p>Cruz, who had previously said he supported a system of scrapping the Obamacare Medicaid expansion in favor of providing block grants to states, the crux of the Graham-Cassidy, <a href="">told a crowd in Texas that he had changed his mind</a>, but didn&rsquo;t elaborate as to why. Meanwhile, Senator Rand Paul took to the Sunday shows to reiterate that he&rsquo;s against the bill because he believes block grants would foster infighting over funding between the states.</p> <p>Some of the changes, which come as the Sept. 30 expiration of the fast-track provision that forestalls a Democratic filibuster, are designed to appeal to moderate holdouts like Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, while others appeared tailored to lure conservative skeptics like Rand Paul of Kentucky. Trump has vowed to win the support of the Kentucky senator, although some theorize that, since the current system is popular in Paul&rsquo;s home state, that he will invent libertarian-sounding objections to any bill the Republicans present.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 500px; height: 284px;" /></a></p> <p><em>Bill Cassidy and Lindsey Graham</em></p> <p>But even if GOP leadership manages to change a handful of votes, the bill&rsquo;s chances of passing remain low, virtually guaranteeing that the Republicans will be forced to accept the status quo after seven years of campaigning to scrap Obamacare. And although the GOP could still try to resurrect the health-care effort later this year, the effort&rsquo;s collapse will raise serious doubts about Congressional Republicans&rsquo; ability to win legislative battles on behalf of the president.</p> <p>As <a href="">Bloomberg </a>points out, even Trump appeared to concede that the outlook for repeal isn&rsquo;t great, admitting as much during a press conference with reporters.</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;Eventually we will win on that. My primary focus, I must tell you &ndash; has been from the beginning, as you can imagine &ndash; is taxes.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>Indeed, the administration appears to already be ceding ground on taxes after leaked highlights from the bill suggested that Republicans would shoot<a href=""> for a 20% corporate tax </a>rate after Trump had called for 15%.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the new version of Graham-Cassidy partially tries to win over holdouts by offering more federal funding for their states, including multiple provisions offering more money to Lisa Murkowski, or &ldquo;Lisa M&rdquo;&rsquo;s Alaska. The revised bill also includes changes to controversial provisions about pre-existing conditions coverage.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Under the revised version, states would have to describe how their health plans &quot;shall maintain access to adequate and affordable health insurance coverage for individuals with pre-existing conditions.&quot;</strong> The original language said each state had to show how it &quot;intends&quot; to have adequate and affordable access to coverage.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The bill continues, however, to give states broad new authority to allow insurance companies to provide skimpier plans with far fewer benefits while charging higher premiums to the sick and the old.</p> <p><strong>Under the new version, states could let insurers impose deductibles that are higher than the limits set by the Affordable Care Act, or remove the health law&rsquo;s limits on the costs that an individual family can incur in a year entirely.</strong> They could also offer coverage that lacks some of the ACA&rsquo;s benefits, such as maternity care, prescription drugs or mental health. Plus, states could let insurers widen the gap between how much old people and young people are charged. And states could remove requirements that insurers cover preventive-health treatments and immunizations.</p> </blockquote> <p>Democrats were quick to criticize the bill.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;Despite an attempt to appear to add money for a select few states, this bill is just as bad for those states and the rest of the states because it still contains a massive cut to Medicaid, and would throw our health insurance system into chaos while raising premiums,&rdquo;</strong> Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement late Sunday.</p> </blockquote> <p>The health-care industry, another group that opposes Graham-Cassidy, mobilized on Sunday to convince senators who are on the fence not to vote for the bill.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The bill provoked an unusually strong backlash from the health-care industry as well. Groups representing doctors, hospitals and insurers signed a letter Saturday urging the Senate to reject the Graham-Cassidy bill.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The groups said the bill would undermine protections for patients with pre-existing conditions, result in dramatic cuts to Medicaid and &ldquo;drastically&rdquo; weaken the individual insurance markets. </strong>The letter was signed by the American Medical Association, the American Academy of Family Physicians, the American Hospital Association, and America&rsquo;s Health Insurance Plans, which represents major insurers.</p> </blockquote> <p>Republicans might have another shot at repealing some of Obamacare&rsquo;s more controversial provisions later this year when they adopt a budget resolution that could allow room for Obamacare repeal provisions, although trying to combine the two complicated policies might make the overall package even harder to pass.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch of Utah said last week that there&rsquo;s a &ldquo;chance&rdquo; of pairing taxes with health-care provisions. &ldquo;But it&rsquo;s not easy,&rdquo; he added.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Mitch McConnell still needs to decide whether to call for a vote on Graham-Cassidy.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>McConnell still has to decide whether to go through with a vote, which would likely happen Wednesday. </strong>While Trump has urged GOP leaders to make every possible effort to repeal Obamacare, some Republicans will be reluctant to take a vote on a bill that many privately are uncomfortable with.</p> </blockquote> <p>A CBO analysis of the bill is expected later Monday.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office will release a partial analysis of the Graham-Cassidy proposal as early as Monday. </strong>It will examine the proposal&rsquo;s impact on the federal deficit, but a full review of the effect on U.S. health coverage and costs won&rsquo;t be ready for weeks. The Senate Finance Committee will hold the only hearing on the bill Monday afternoon, and it doesn&rsquo;t plan to vote on the measure. Senate Republicans will have a private lunchtime meeting Tuesday, where GOP leaders can make a last plea for support.</p> </blockquote> <p>The Brookings Institution estimated Friday that the Graham-Cassidy plan would reduce the number of people with health coverage by about 21 million a year from 2020 through 2026. The good news is that for all the twists and turns in this ongoing process, the fate of Obamacare repeal should be sealed by mid-week.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="599" height="340" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> 111th United States Congress 115th United States Congress American Academy of Family Physicians American Hospital Association American Medical Association American Presbyterians Bill Cassidy Brookings Institution Congressional Budget Office Donald Trump Federal Deficit GOP Senate Graham-Cassidy Insurance Companies Internal Revenue Code Lisa Murkowski Mitch McConnell Obamacare Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Politics Politics Rand Paul Republican Party Republicans Senate Finance Committee Social Issues United States Mon, 25 Sep 2017 12:10:50 +0000 Tyler Durden 604105 at Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder <p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">Commodities King Gartman Says Gold Soon Reach $1,400 As Drums of War Grow Louder</a></strong></span></span></p> <p><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><strong></strong></span></span><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- 'Commodities King' Gartman sees $1,400 gold surge in months<br />- "Gold is the one currency that will do the best of all..."</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Pullback below $1300 "is relatively inconsequential"<br />- Use gold price weakness to be a buyer "no question"</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Bullish on gold due to central banks and easy monetary policy and gold will be even higher in euro terms</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Gold will&nbsp;be the best of all, as a result of QE and expansionary policies</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- Dalio reconfirms belief that 'gold serves a purpose' and portfolios should have exposure</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">- 'Gold is a diversifying asset' says Dalio</strong><br /><strong style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">-&nbsp;Own allocated, segregated gold in Zurich or Singapore</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Editor Mark O'Byrne</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href=""><img src="" width="683" height="388" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11660" /></a><br /></strong>Dennis Gartman has called&nbsp;2017’s gold rally and he&nbsp;is now forecasting gold will be&nbsp;<em>"demonstrably higher"</em>&nbsp;rising to $1,400/oz in the coming months and rise by even more in euro terms.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">In an interview on&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">CNBC</a>, he said that the recent correction in gold is but a mere pullback prior to much higher prices and&nbsp;<em>"gold is the one currency that will do the best of all."</em></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Earlier this year Dennis Gartman, of the Gartman Letter, successfully called this year's gold rally. In the year-to-date the precious metal is up by nearly 13%, thus outperforming the S&amp;P 500 which is 12% higher.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><em>"A year from now, gold will be demonstrably higher than it is right now...I would certainly think we could see $1400 [an ounce] in dollar terms."</em></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gartman's prediction comes a few days after another respected investor, Ray Dalio, called for gold to be held in portfolios.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Both Gartman and Dalio encourage gold investment as they believe it is an excellent diversifier and will be among the best performing currencies.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Their comments came following an intense week&nbsp;both political and economic developments, across the globe.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Signals from&nbsp;central banks - nothing to see here?</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href=""><img src="" width="300" height="225" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11656" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Last week&nbsp;the U.S. Fed made clear that it is&nbsp;still on track to raise interest rates by the end 2017.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold stumbled&nbsp;as tighter monetary policy is seen to raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This is not a cause for concern, says Gartman:</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>"This is a correction but let's understand the last rally that we had took off from $1200 to $1370. The fact that we've fallen back below $1300 I think is relatively inconsequential,"</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Why is Gartman so bullish on gold?</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>"The monetary authorities are all still remaining expansionary...In that instance, the one currency that will probably do the best of all is gold."</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gartman says this despite the announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve and previous comments from other central banks. Clearly, he argues, balance sheet unwinding is not going to happen immediately.</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>"[It] is going to take five or six years. This is not something that will occur overnight,"</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">As we explained<a href="">&nbsp;last week</a>&nbsp;following the Fed's announcement, the plan to hike interest rates and reduce the size of its balance sheet does not make for a happy ending.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">According to 100 years’ worth of data (provided by&nbsp;Incrementum Capital Partners via Frank Holmes), increased rates and a reduction in the balance sheet&nbsp;has&nbsp;historically preceded recessions.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">A recession would likely kill the business cycle. Frank Holmes explains why this makes a case for&nbsp;<a href="">holding gold in your portfolio</a>:</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>Gold has historically shared a very low to negative correlation with stocks. Consider 2008, the height of the financial crisis: US stocks ended the year down more than 37 percent, while gold held its value, returning 3.4 percent.</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">So it is not surprising that Dennis Gartman remains bullish on gold. For the next five-to-six years the Federal Reserve, along with the Bank of England and European Central Bank (to name a few), will be seeking to do the impossible - undo all of their decade-long decisions without screwing up the economy even more.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The case for gold is clearly strong in the long-term, and just as much&nbsp;so in the short-term thanks to a certain 'dotard' and 'Rocket Man'.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>North Korea thinks Donald Trump is mentally deranged...</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href=""><img src="" width="251" height="300" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11655" /></a></p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>“Just heard Foreign Minister of North Korea speak at U.N. If he echoes thoughts of Little Rocket Man, they won’t be around much longer!”&nbsp;</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Whilst markets' concerns over North Korea have apparently lessened over the weekend, the last week has been full of machismo demonstrations from both sides.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold had a bit of a take-down following the Federal Reserve meeting however North Korea's threats to test another hydrogen bomb, promptly increased support for the safe haven.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">President Trump unimpressed UN attendees last week, referring to Kim Jong-Un as a the 'Rocket Man on a suicide mission'. In response the North Korean Foreign Minister told the UN Trump was&nbsp;"mentally deranged person full of megalomania" and also on a "suicide mission".</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The U.S. decided a fly by of U.S. bombers would be a good way to demonstrate 'strength' whilst the North Koreans marched on Pyongyang against President Trump.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold plays a significant role during times of political and economic uncertainty. Whilst many argue that the war-of-words between the US and North Korea is nothing new, this is the first time we have seen actions escalate to this level.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Those who believe this is nothing new are perhaps assume things will ease off between the American 'dotard' and the North Korean despot.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">When you look back at various events between 1976 and 2009 that have prompted a cause for concern for regarding North Korea, the gold price has declined.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This year however we have seen the price rally. This is because there are many positive factors in the gold market but also because the stakes are higher. &nbsp;With each tweet, statement, military demonstration and rocket test, the uncertainty increases significantly.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We have not been in a situation when a U.S. President is able to broadcast his thoughts with immediate effect to the world (including his enemy). Nor have we ever known North Korea to have the military capabilities it is so keen to demonstrate.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold thrives on uncertainty.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>We are certain about the uncertainty&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">We are at an interesting juncture.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Data tells us that it is highly unlikely that central banks will successfully unwind without causing harm to the global economy.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Data also tells us that&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank">gold performs well as a safe haven</a>&nbsp;during times of war and geopolitical upheaval.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">However, there is no data to tell us how everything will play out. This is where uncertainty comes in.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Central banks are going to start unwinding, but we do not know how badly it will go wrong. North Korea will continue to try to destabilise the region and&nbsp;the U.S. but we do not know how far they will be allowed to get.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Gold will perform well in the coming months. If you want to be certain of its protection in a world of uncertainty, then you should own physical gold - allocated and segregated coins and bars - in the safest vaults, in the safest jurisdictions in the world.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Important guides to storage in Singapore and Switzerland:</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><strong><a href="">Essential Guide to Storing Gold In Singapore<br /></a></strong></strong><strong><a href="">Essential Guide to Storing Gold In Switzerland</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>News and&nbsp;Commentary</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">Euro, Stocks Drops After German Vote; Oil Dips: Markets Wrap (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">Gold prices looking for support (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">Trump slaps travel restrictions on North Korea, Venezuela in sweeping new ban (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">Gold companies take a shine to China’s Silk Road (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">Sri Lankan arrested with nearly 1kg of gold in his rectum (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="" target="_blank"><img src="" width="1474" height="906" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" /></a>&nbsp;European stock volumes lowest since tech bubble. Source: Bloomberg</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">'Commodities king' Gartman sees gold surging to $1400 within months (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">After 2-Week Takedown In Gold And Silver, Here Is The Big Surprise - Turk (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">Bitcoin Is A Bubble says Rickards but What Causing and For How Long? (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">Should you be worried about the “October effect”? (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">If Amazon Takes Over The World... (</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Gold Prices (LBMA AM)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">25 Sep: USD 1,295.50, GBP 957.89 &amp; EUR 1,089.26 per ounce<br />22 Sep: USD 1,297.00, GBP 956.15 &amp; EUR 1,082.09 per ounce<br />21 Sep: USD 1,297.35, GBP 960.56 &amp; EUR 1,089.00 per ounce<br />20 Sep: USD 1,314.90, GBP 970.53 &amp; EUR 1,094.79 per ounce<br />19 Sep: USD 1,308.45, GBP 969.30 &amp; EUR 1,091.25 per ounce<br />18 Sep: USD 1,314.40, GBP 970.16 &amp; EUR 1,100.68 per ounce<br />15 Sep: USD 1,325.00, GBP 977.32 &amp; EUR 1,109.16 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Silver Prices (LBMA)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">25 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.57 &amp; EUR 14.27 per ounce<br />22 Sep: USD 16.97, GBP 12.52 &amp; EUR 14.18 per ounce<br />21 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.58 &amp; EUR 14.24 per ounce<br />20 Sep: USD 17.38, GBP 12.84 &amp; EUR 14.48 per ounce<br />19 Sep: USD 17.15, GBP 12.70 &amp; EUR 14.31 per ounce<br />18 Sep: USD 17.53, GBP 12.94 &amp; EUR 14.66 per ounce<br />15 Sep: USD 17.70, GBP 13.03 &amp; EUR 14.81 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><br />Recent Market Updates</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Bitcoin “Is A Bubble” but Gold Is Money Says World’s Biggest Hedge Fund Manager</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Pensions and Debt Time Bomb In UK: £1 Trillion Crisis Looms</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed May “Kill The Business Cycle”</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;“This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From” – Deutsche Bank</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Global Debt Bubble Understated By $13 Trillion Warn BIS</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Bitcoin Price Falls 40% In 3 Days Underlining Gold’s Safe Haven Credentials</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Gold Up, Markets Fatigued As War Talk Boils Over</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Oil Rich Venezuela Stops Accepting Dollars</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Massive Equifax Hack Shows Cyber Risk to Deposits and Investments Today</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;British People Suddenly Stopped Buying Cars</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Buy Gold for Long Term as “Fiat Money Is Doomed”</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Conor McGregor – Worth His Weight In Gold?</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="">-&nbsp;Gold Has 2% Weekly Gain,18% Higher YTD – Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal Hurts Dollar</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Important&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956il">Guides</span></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For your perusal, below are our&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">most</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">popular</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">guides</span>&nbsp;in 2017:</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*N5MhbFRBkTqXW95dlRy194d-P0/5/f18dQhb0S5ft8X-f1rW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1ZW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHmp3PnStQVS9p0b63dhWbW8mp0Tc5x5KNkW7-XB_567h1CPW8r5PXz49z-4PN2MV0Xm5w8jDW1mw3yc59SFsZN4H-tjrQC5z2VPC2cV7gvpc4W4XYhBl2y9PQJW4sxqtN7h5hQFW28TbSB2Cg_LLW96LzRy5DkRJDW5BRXXj2y4Lc7N3Kd2SV_-Nf6W3brNsz66rKFTW2xH0xz1lcG1VVQBGcH5DQdGhN22JjmzdPgQwW9464-Y5GFs9DW4Rj6Nh6BzJrnN45Ly2MkwRN4W8qYMH51FnsVDW2X9_p02MVHnbN2GZdYq215_BW1J7MZd3mgJK7W4F32xR1JjtM5W4Bn5JG3ZzLH2W5jL56q7dkHC7W3VtW1b1MWhN-W1MKd944yqBfl111" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Switzerland</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W5Hh19S2J1j6jW1gxPj45yTRLt0/5/f18dQhb0S5fw8X-fbXW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1YW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHjG25x99KVwyMQc6PVJWyW625bx16Gj8TSW6bVy-525hjVhW83KHrF7J39qHN2m8DqKmmF0wW1jsTjn5VDnrHVbq5fx4TKc2lW6Rjg6t5Pk17jW2xZzRk8LpcPpW36k5sF4FnHNZW1mvfQB2BpzSjN1mT8mr2g4dYW5VZ-P_37vq3BW2--Tfh1w3GzfW5CkFpW6ZccdyW5vvKY_3N2S6fW3KRSNH8yxr7CW7YJp821cQlwRW63x06S1bBvW3W408wWR11rnNbV4Vjkz6NjfdLW55Fr2P5nn1d6W301cwV4GX00sW5hfR428jJDdkW4Cy2w54wj2JxVMFy4w4hyJQMV6N2-D1mPRd4N6YRN0Y4ZDMLD2LMBk7BT1f5Fq5PC03" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Singapore</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W7dc5x_8dXcz0W57pb-W8yRfPY0/5/f18dQhb0Sjv98X-fhGW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrBCVW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z0sTg7mCbb0W57V1HT7tVHF9W8Z32tg35s628W859LV685kgn-W5mG2963qCNtmW8hTG4j5Zh496W2d551v3pNnKLVLrb9R83_Pn-W7JCxGl81bhDKW7N_KqM11GBXTW41TlcR3TwTqzW19BjML1ks0KjW7RPZVs5-2sjBW7ZzDyK7GLjPjW2KH_vB6SdpRZW1hx1p11Gg3W9W6rwy5K1YZKs5W2gFslL6NqPjwW1tbMwf7n90PHW67SS1j224DVBW6SdFBY1S1FW8W1Th1-Q1X2dwGW1swLvy81myPRW1B9M4Q6SdHPtW7C3gqS89xKZ9W1Ms6WG19gjwJN42ktpLPs031VgkKmy5qqk_FW41Q13s3srYmmW2-yGlm4v9PYhVmLW2J4r5l5jW7fnqv3187HWVW794lJw3T7yBDW1Zq0mT90vVQHW7SNfQy7BfhjRN3QzSrFQN_TjVcGblm3cFvNY0" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.</p> Bank of England Bank of England BIS Bitcoin Bitcoin Business Central Banks Debt Ceiling Dennis Gartman Deutsche Bank Donald Trump Economic bubble European Central Bank European Central Bank Federal Reserve Finance Global Economy Gold Gold as an investment Investment KIM London bullion market Monetary Policy Money North Korea Precious metals Ray Dalio Recession Reuters S&P 500 Silver as an investment Sovereigns Switzerland United Nations US Fed US Federal Reserve Zurich Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:59:17 +0000 GoldCore 604109 at Frontrunning: September 25 <ul> <li>Merkel’s Bloc Regroups After ‘Nightmare Victory’ in Germany (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Germany’s Election Results Reflect European Unease on Economy, Immigration (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Chastened Merkel looks for coalition partners after vote (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Jews around world concerned by far-right breakthrough in German election (<a href="">Reuters</a>)</li> <li>Iraqi Kurds Vote in Independence Referendum (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>GOP Revises Obamacare Repeal With Bill Headed to Likely Defeat (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Trump Tax Plan to Cut Taxes for Corporations and Wealthy (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Trump’s Revised Travel Ban Opens New Stage in Legal Fight&nbsp; (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Trump’s War With NFL Threatens to Overshadow Rollout of Tax Plan (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Trump’s NFL Anthem Crusade Angers Big Campaign Donors&nbsp; (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>China Eyeing Rule Change That Could Aid Tesla (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Springsteen Tickets Hit $10,000, and Wall Street Gets Scalped&nbsp; (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Equifax’s Massive Hack Has a Tiny Silver Lining&nbsp; (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Colleges Move to Close Gender Gap in Science (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>iPhone Disappointment Hammers Suppliers (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Funding Tesla Annoys Automakers That Need Electric Car Credits (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>Department Stores Cling to Power Over Landlords on Mall Upgrades (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>In World’s Hottest Oil Patch, Jitters Mount That a Bust Is Near (<a href="">BBG</a>)</li> <li>GE Agrees to Sell Industrial Unit to ABB for $2.6 Billion (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Activist Funds Seek Ouster of Tuesday Morning CEO (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> <li>Unilever to Buy Korean Skin-Care Firm for $2.7 Billion (<a href="">WSJ</a>)</li> </ul> <p><strong>Overnight Media Digest</strong></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">WSJ</span></em></p> <p>- President Donald Trump on Sunday issued a new ban on entry to the U.S. that applies a range of restrictions on nationals from eight countries, including new targets Chad, North Korea and Venezuela.</p> <p>- Uber Technologies Inc is pushing to meet the London regulator which on Friday said it would refuse to reissue the ride-hailing company's operating license there.</p> <p>- Two investment funds are calling for new leadership at Tuesday Morning Corp, the latest in a series of activist campaigns targeting chief executives.</p> <p>- Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative alliance won the German election, but a steep drop in its support and an anti-immigrant party's surge signaled political turbulence ahead for Europe's largest economy.</p> <p>- Donald Trump's son-in-law and adviser Jared Kushner has used a personal email account to correspond with colleagues in the White House, his attorney confirmed on Sunday.</p> <p>- Senate Republican leaders appeared to face a difficult path to reviving their repeal of the Affordable Care Act, after Senator Susan Collins of Maine said she could not envision voting for the bill.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">FT</span></em></p> <p>Uber Technologies Inc said it was willing to discuss how to better support police investigations and to strengthen official reporting procedures for private hire companies, in an attempt to resolve the issues that prompted Transport for London to revoke its licence to operate in London.</p> <p>In one of the most high-profile prosecutions ever brought by the Serious Fraud Office, three former Tesco Plc will stand trial on Monday for their alleged role in an accounting scandal in which Tesco was found to have inflated its profit by 326 million pounds ($440 million) in 2014.</p> <p>UK opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn was accused of making Labour a “laughing stock” by an MP from his party after Corbyn used his support group Momentum to prevent delegates at the annual conference from getting a vote on Brexit — even as he claimed to be making the party more democratic.</p> <p>The Labour Party’s John McDonnell will on Monday introduce a policy to put a cap on credit card interest payments to tackle Britain’s debt crisis, a measure that would be similar to restrictions imposed on payday lenders by the Financial Conduct Authority.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">NYT</span></em></p> <p>- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is shifting its law enforcement strategy and expects to increasingly look to banks and other financial institutions to come clean on their own about misconduct and problems in the market.</p> <p>- U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday issued a new order indefinitely banning almost all travel to the United States from seven countries including most citizens of Iran, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Chad and North Korea.</p> <p>- The revised version of the health bill, authored by Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, would provide extra money for an unnamed "high-spending low-density state," a last-minute change seemingly aimed at Alaska and its holdout Republican senator, Lisa Murkowski, who has yet to say how she will vote.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Canada</span></em></p> <p>THE GLOBE AND MAIL</p> <p>** Canadian authorities have started to collaborate with their Swedish counterparts in the continuing corruption investigation into Bombardier Inc's $340-million contract to sell railway equipment in Azerbaijan.</p> <p>** Donald Trump's unpredictable personality and hostile opposition to free trade is looming over NAFTA talks as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his negotiating team remain uncertain as to what the U.S. President wants from a reformed pact, or whether he would even sign a deal and risk alienating his base.</p> <p>** In a survey of 53 companies conducted by Nanos Research for the American Chamber of Commerce, U.S.-headquartered firms operating in Canada said their biggest concerns about the bilateral trading relationship involve U.S. protectionism.</p> <p>NATIONAL POST</p> <p>** More than half of Canadians think rising interest rates will negatively impact their personal finances, but only about a quarter of them have an emergency fund to deal with any potential hardship according to a new poll by Forum Research Inc.</p> <p></p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Britain</span></em></p> <p>The Times</p> <p>The credibility of an expert witness put up by the pharmaceuticals industry has been shot down by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence in a legal row over drugs pricing, according to court papers obtained by the Times.</p> <p>A row over a confidential regulatory report into the activities of Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc's restructuring division has descended into farce after television presenter Noel Edmonds claimed to have a copy.</p> <p>The Guardian</p> <p>Royal Bank of Scotland has postponed plans to introduce a cut-price credit card amid concerns about the 200 billion-pound of lending amassed by UK households.</p> <p>UK's antislavery body has launched 185 investigations since May, nearly double its total for the whole of last year, after assuming powers that allow it to look beyond the food and farming sector.</p> <p>The Telegraph</p> <p>The boss of the Chinese-backed private equity firm behind a proposed 550 million pound ($743 million) takeover of Imagination Technologies Plc is already eyeing further acquisition opportunities in UK.</p> <p>The pay gap between male and female managers is worsening with women earning an average 12,000 pounds less than their male colleagues, according to figures from the Chartered Management Institute and XpertHR.</p> <p>Sky News</p> <p>Carlyle, the buyout firm&lrm; whose British investments include the RAC breakdown service, is close to entering a period of exclusivity during which it would seek to conclude a takeover of tobacco supplier Palmer &amp; Harvey.</p> <p>U.S. taxi firm Uber Technologies Inc could stay on the road if it met the "reasonable" demands set out by Transport for London, senior Labour frontbencher Diane Abbott has said.</p> <p>The Independent</p> <p>Britain's Labour Party is to announce plans for a broad cap on the total interest anyone can pay to a credit card company, potentially helping some three million Britons trapped in a debt spiral. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> American Chamber of Commerce Bitly Business Carlyle Chartered Management Institute China Commodity Futures Trading Commission Corruption Donald Trump Donald Trump Economy of the United States Financial Conduct Authority Germany Industrial Unit Iran Labour Party National Football League National Institute for Health North Korea Obamacare Politics Private Equity Republican Party Reuters Royal Bank of Scotland Serious Fraud Office Serious Fraud Office Somalia South Carolina Transport U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Uber White House White House XpertHR Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:58:01 +0000 Tyler Durden 604108 at Worried About Demand, Apple Tells iPhone X Suppliers To Slow Down Component Delivery <p>Following an embarrassingly dull rollout of the iPhone 8 last week, Apple's woes may be spreading to its flagship gizmo for the current product cycle, the iPhone X. </p> <p>As <a href="">Digitimes reports</a>, Tim Cook's company has instructed component suppliers to "withhold part of the component shipments prepared for the production of iPhone X devices" according to unidentified Taiwan-based upstream suppliers. </p> <p>The reason for the delay is that Apple is waiting to see the pre-sale orders of the iPhone X as well as the sales performance of the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus before pushing the production of iPhone X into full gear, said the sources.</p> <p>The sources explain that iPhone X component suppliers are currently shipping parts and products that amount to <strong>only about 40% of the quantities originally planned for the initial production of iPhone X. </strong>However, despite the instruction for shipment slowdown, some suppliers still need to step up production to meet the 40% requirement due to low yield rates at their production lines, the sources indicated. Apple is said to have adopted the same strategy previously for iPhone 7 in 2016 - a phone which met with lackluster demand - during which initial shipments of parts and components reached only about 60% of the materials originally required by the vendor, with sources adding that Apple pulled in the remaining 40% of orders 1-2 months later.</p> <p>Meanwhile, as <a href="">Bloomberg reports this morning</a>, in a double-whammy for Apple suppliers, their stocks have gotten hit in recent days on what is perceived as market disappointment with the company's latest product offering: on Monday Hon Hai fell 2.8 percent in Taipei, while Pegatron slumped 4.4 percent. TSMC dropped for a third day. AAC Technologies Holdings Inc., another supplier, retreated 6.7 percent in Hong Kong, and GoerTek Inc. capped its biggest loss since July 3 in China’s Shenzhen.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., which assembles the iPhone and other Apple devices, has fallen 10 percent in Taipei since Apple unveiled its collection of new gadgets for the holidays this month. Other suppliers across the region, including Taiwan’s Pegatron Corp. and South Korea’s LG Innotek Co. have plunged more than 12 percent. Taiwan’s $1.1 trillion equity market is particularly exposed to the swinging fortunes of Apple products, due to the dominance of parts manufacturers. Hon Hai and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Apple’s main chip-maker, together make up a quarter of the Taiex total weighting, while exports account for more than half of the island’s gross domestic product.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>"Orders of the new IPhone have disappointed the market and foreign investors may continue net selling Taiwan stocks</strong>," said Alan Tseng, Taipei-based vice president at Capital Investment Management. "The retreat of Apple suppliers has pulled down the benchmark index and could drag the index even lower in the coming month.</p> <p>As a reminder, a channel check conducted last week by Rosenblatt Securities found that iPhone 8 pre-orders are "substantially lower" than iPhone 7 and iPhone 6 levels, with initial feedback suggesting that iPhone 8 volume is below predecessors in the U.S. and even more so in China.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1280" height="600" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Apple Apple Inc. Business China Computing Foxconn Gross Domestic Product Hong Kong IOS IPhone Linksys iPhone Shenzhen Taiex Technology Technology TSMC Video Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:29:33 +0000 Tyler Durden 604107 at Abe Announces Japan Snap Election, Will Face New Challenger <p>As if the just concluded German elections, and the upcoming referendums in Catalonia and Iraqi Kurdistan were not enough, here comes Japan. </p> <p>Shortly following <a href="">Sunday night reports </a>that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe plans to launch a new economic stimulus package of around 2 trillion yen ($17.8 billion) by the end of this year, which sent the Yen sliding to session lows and the USDJPY rising as high as 112.50 before fading the entire move, on Monday the Japanese premier confirmed recent rumors when he said he would dissolve parliament’s lower house on Thursday for a snap election, as he seeks a fresh mandate to overcome “a national crisis”. Abe, in power for five years with the success of his famous Abenomics always just beyond reach, said he needed a mandate <strong>to shift some revenues from a planned future tax hike to social spending such as education, besides seeking support for a tough stance toward North Korea’s repeated missile and nuclear tests.</strong> </p> <p>“I will dissolve the lower house on Sept. 28,” Abe told a nationally televised news conference on Monday <a href="">according to Reuters</a>. Earlier, the head of Abe’s junior coalition partner, Natsuo Yamaguchi, said he understood the election would be held on Oct. 22.</p> <p>The decision is aimed to take advantage of Abe’s recently surge in favorable ratings following a crash in support for Abe as early as two months ago as a result of ongoing corruption scandals in his party, as well as ongoing opposition disarray. The main opposition Democratic Party is struggling with single-digit ratings and much depends on whether it can cooperate with liberal opposition groups. </p> <p>Abe’s image as a strong leader has bolstered his ratings amid rising tension over North Korea’s nuclear arms and missile programs and overshadowed opposition criticism of the premier for suspected cronyism scandals that had eroded his support. <strong></strong></p> <p>As the <a href=";segmentId=3d08be62-315f-7330-5bbd-af33dc531acb">FT notes</a>, "the general election will decide whether Japan continues with its stimulative economic policies and whether Mr Abe has the political strength to drive through a revision to Japan’s war-renouncing constitution."</p> <p>Abe, whose ratings have risen to around 50% from around 30% in July, is gambling his ruling bloc can keep its lower house majority even if it loses the two-thirds “super majority” needed to achieve his long-held goal of revising the post-war pacifist constitution to clarify the military’s role. According to Reuters, A weekend survey by the Nikkei business daily survey showed <strong>44% of voters planned to vote for Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) versus just 8% for the main opposition Democratic Party and another 8% for a new party launched by popular Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike.</strong></p> <p>The Nikkei poll was far more positive for Abe’s prospects than a Kyodo news agency survey that showed his LDP garnering only 27.7% support, with 42.2% undecided. </p> <p>Still, while Abe starts from a strong position, the early election has prompted a drastic realignment among Japan’s opposition, with Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike declaring, just hours before Abe's election announcement, that she would lead a new conservative, reform-minded “Party of Hope”, to offer voters an alternative to the LDP. </p> <p>“Our ideal is to proceed free of special interests,” Koike, a former LDP member, told a news conference.&nbsp; “I am raising my flag for real,” declared Ms Koike at a press conference timed to upstage the prime minister. She said the party would run on her signature anti-establishment platform of reform and opposition to vested interests. “The thing Japan lacks is hope,” she said quoted by the FT. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Previously, Ms Koike had sponsored the launch of the new party but stayed behind the scenes. Now she has declared herself as its leader, indicating she will take a prominent role in the election campaign.</p> </blockquote> <p>Confirming the ongoing power rotation, Mineyuki Fukuda, a deputy minister in the cabinet office, said he was quitting the ruling Liberal Democratic party to stand for the new Party of Hope. He joins a series of established politicians, most of them defectors from the opposition Democratic party, who will run under Ms Koike’s banner.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Abe’s election platform will see him promise to go ahead with a planned rise in the national sales tax to 10% from 8% in 2019 but increase the proportion of revenue spent on child care and education, delaying a target of putting the budget in the black in the fiscal year ending March 2021. As noted above, also on Monday, Abe asked his cabinet to compile a 2-trillion-yen ($17.8-billion) economic package by year-end to focus on child care, education and encouraging corporate investment, while maintaining fiscal discipline.&nbsp; The Yomiuri newspaper said earlier the funding would cover the three years from April 2018 until sales tax revenue kicks in.</p> <p>Abe also wants a minor revision to the constitution that would explicitly recognise the legality of Japan’s Self-Defence Forces. Ms Koike backs constitutional reform, increasing the odds that supporters of a change will secure the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to pass a revision, and will subsequently take it to a national referendum for approval.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>Meanwhile, critics of Abe's decision says the prime minister risks risked creating a political vacuum at a time of rising geopolitical tension over North Korea.&nbsp; And, given the unexpected results seen in other major developed countries, political analysts are not ruling out a “nasty surprise” for the Japanese leader. </p> <p>“Abe’s big gamble could yield a big surprise,” veteran independent political analysts Minoru Morita said. </p> <p>For a vivid example of just that, see the outcome from Sunday's "nightmare victory" for Merkel, which virtually nobody had expected, yet which overnight set Germany's right wing AfD party as the country's third most powerful political entity.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="700" height="394" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Abenomics Abenomics AfD party Asia Comfort women Corruption Cronyism Democratic Party Gambling Historical revisionism Japan Japanese nationalists LDP Liberal Democratic Party Liberal Democratic Party Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Newspaper Nikkei Nikkei 225 North Korea Politics Politics Politics of Asia Politics of Japan ratings Reuters Shinz? Abe Tax Revenue Yen Yuriko Koike Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:13:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 604106 at Global Stocks Mixed After "Nightmare Victory" For Merkel; Chinese Property Developers Crash <p>European stocks rose as the euro tumbled following Germany’s election result which was <a href="">dubbed a "Nightmare Victory" for Merkel </a>and could lead to potentially complicated coalition talks and perhaps even another early election. U.S. equity-index futures point to a lower open, while Asian equities slide after a plunge in Chinese property developer names over worries of new real estate curbs as well as tech stocks following more iPhone delivery concerns. S&amp;P500 futures are steady, down slightly by just over -0.1%, after closing little changed on Friday. </p> <p>For <a href="">those who missed it</a>, in the main political event over the weekend, the German election results showed Chancellor Merkel set for a 4th term after her CDU/CSU won the most votes, but performed weaker than expected and will need to undertake coalition discussions. In terms of the number of seats, CDU/CSU won 246 seats, SPD won 153 seats, AfD won 94 seats, FDP won 80 seats, Die Linke won 69 seats and Grune won 67 seats. Given the abysmal performance of the SPD (worst performance since WW2), the party have efused to enter into a Grand Coalition and instead will form the opposition (to avoid AfD becoming the opposition). As such, Merkel will now have to try and form a ‘Jamaica’ Coalition with the FDP and Green parties. However, the FDP initially distanced themselves from forming such an alliance. Furthermore, according the CSU are reportedly considering their historical alliance with the CDU following yesterday's result. Further reports suggest that the CSU are set to vote on their alliance with Merkel's CDU, However, according to a report on Germany's n-tv, CSU leader Seehofer said his party would remain a partner with Merkel's CDU, although Seehofer said he wants CSU leadership to vote on joint caucus. </p> <p>“The question is obviously now what it means for policy going forward” in Germany, Mitul Kotecha, head of Asia FX and rates strategy at Barclays Bank Plc, said on Bloomberg Television in reference to the election. “Investors are going to be closely following announcements on policy, especially given that fact that the AfD is not just nationalist, but also anti-euro to some extent.” As <a href="">Bloomberg adds</a>, the process of building a new government could take weeks, so markets may well move on from the result quickly. </p> <p>The Euro pushes lower through European trading as investors digested these political developments. German election fallout with smaller mandate for Merkel is coupled with latest Italian polls <strong>showing support for populist Five Star Movement. </strong>The resulting slide in the common currency, which saw the EURUSD slide below 1.189 this morning, sent European stocks modestly higher although the reaction was decided mixed among another session of near record low volumes as trader paralysis continues in a centrally-planned market.&nbsp; The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell less than 0.1%, as losses in banks and miners offset gains in travel-and-leisure and media shares. Tullow Oil jumped 6.8% after saying Ghana’s new maritime boundary as determined by a tribunal doesn’t affect the TEN fields, and it expects to resume drilling around the end of the year. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="281" /></a></p> <p>Also over the weekend, New Zealand held its general election on Saturday which resulted to a hung parliament, as no party gained the 61 seats needed for a majority. In terms of the projected results, the incumbent National Party won 58 seats, main opposition Labour Party won 45 seats, New Zealand First won 9 seats, Green Party won 7 seats, ACT won 1 seat and the Maori Party won 0 seats. The result has been broad-based weakness for the Kiwi with the AUDNZD rising over 100 pips from its Friday close of 1.0860.</p> <p>Separately, North Korea’s Foreign Minister stated that President Trump's labelling of Kim Jong Un as ‘Rocketman’ has made North Korean rockets’ visit to entire US mainland inevitable, while there were also separate reports that US Air Force B-1B Lancer Bombers flew over the waters east of North Korea on Saturday.&nbsp; Elsewhere, on Monday Japan PM Abe confirmed recent rumors, and announced he would dissolve the lower house of parliament on September 28th, to call a snap election and further cement his power following the recent spike in popularity. </p> <p>The yen pared a drop as Japan’s prime minister unveiled a fresh stimulus package and said he’ll dissolve the lower house of parliament ahead of a general election. Stocks in Europe edged higher helped by the weaker euro, but shares in developing nations headed for a third day retreating.</p> <p>Asian equities fell, with the region’s benchmark set for a third day of declines from its highest level in almost a decade, as investors weighed the outlook for returns and political uncertainty prompted some to cash in some of the gains from this year’s rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.5% to 162.25 in Hong Kong as about three stocks declined for every two that gained. Japanese stocks advanced, with the Topix closing at a fresh two-year high, as the yen weakened against the dollar on speculation of fiscal stimulus by Abe. “Some investors have decided to take some of their gains from the table after the recent rally drove valuations up in many Asian markets,” said John Teja, a director at PT Ciptadana Sekuritas Asia in Jakarta. “The biggest risk for the region and global equities market in general remains the political risk on the Korean peninsula.” The Asian equities benchmark has surged about 20 percent so far this year, putting it on course for its best annual performance since 2009, underpinned by low interest rates and an improving outlook for earnings growth. </p> <p>Of note, the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index plunged more than 5% overnight, its biggest single day drop, after China introduced new curbs on real estate over the weekend. The move send the Hang Seng lower by 1.4%, its biggest drop in 6 weeks. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="300" /></a></p> <p>Also notable, China's offshore Yuan tumbled to 6.6205 as China's recent push to weaken the currency, including the weakest fixing since August 31, sent the CNH to the lowest level since August 28. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="241" /></a></p> <p>In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell one basis point to 2.24 percent, the lowest in a week. Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 0.41 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to 1.341 percent, the largest drop in more than two weeks. </p> <p>In commodities, gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,295.40 an ounce. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 0.1 percent to $50.63 a barrel, while Brent pushed to the highest level since February.</p> <p>The week is full of Fed speakers, with Yellen set to discuss monetary policy on Tuesday, while the calendar sets off with Dudley, Evans and Kashkari taking the podium today. Investors will look for cues on monetary policy as Fed and ECB officials speak this week: "In the U.S., the mystery of the missing inflation will likely feature in a slate of Fed-speak, with core inflation stuck at 1.4%," Societe Generale strategists including Stephen Gallagher wrote in note.</p> <p>President Donald Trump and Republican leaders plan to release a tax framework this week that would dramatically cut taxes for corporations and the wealthy and includes a proposal to cut the corporate tax rate to 20 percent from 35 percent.&nbsp; Scheduled earnings on Monday include Red Hat, Synnex. </p> <p><strong>Market Snapshot</strong></p> <ul> <li>S&amp;P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,495.75</li> <li>VIX up 5% to 10.07</li> <li>STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 383.59</li> <li>MSCI Asia down 0.5% to 162.23</li> <li>MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.9% to 533.88</li> <li>Nikkei up 0.5% to 20,397.58</li> <li>Topix up 0.5% to 1,672.82</li> <li>Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 27,500.34</li> <li>Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,341.55</li> <li>Sensex down 1.3% to 31,494.47</li> <li>Australia S&amp;P/ASX 200 up 0.03% to 5,683.73</li> <li>Kospi down 0.4% to 2,380.40</li> <li>German 10Y yield fell 1.6 bps to 0.431%</li> <li>Euro down 0.4% to $1.1907</li> <li>Italian 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.814%</li> <li>Spanish 10Y yield unchanged at 1.627%</li> <li>WTI Futures down 0.2% to $50.6/bbl; </li> <li>Brent crude up 0.6% to $57.18</li> <li>Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,292.12</li> <li>U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 92.38</li> </ul> <p><strong>Top Overnight News</strong></p> <ul> <li>Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union-led bloc is meeting in Berlin on Monday in the wake of the defeat of its Social Democratic Party challenger even while falling to the worst result since 1949</li> <li>Ifo Sept. german business confidence index unexpectedly dropped a second month to 115.2, vs est. 116.0</li> <li>New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English has claimed a mandate to form the next government after winning the biggest slice of the vote in Saturday’s election, even as opposition leader Jacinda Ardern refuses to concede defeat</li> <li>Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said he will dissolve the lower house of parliament on Sept. 28; general election set for Oct. 22, according to three people with knowledge of his ruling coalition’s plans</li> <li>Japan’s Abe to order relevant officials to come up with 2t yen economic package at economic, fiscal panel meeting today, Yomiuri reports, without attribution</li> <li>Hellman &amp; Friedman to Buy Payments Firm Nets for $5.3 Billion</li> <li>Switch Inc. Is Said to Aim for Year’s Third- Biggest Tech IPO</li> <li>ABB Bolsters U.S. Business With $2.6 Billion GE Unit Deal</li> <li>Unilever Buys Korean Makeup Firm for $2.7 Billion from Goldman</li> <li>Coty Is Said to Mull Selling Some Fragrance Brands: WWD</li> <li>Brazil Regulator Is Said to Back AT&amp;T/Time Warner, Globo Says</li> <li>Blackstone Is Said to Buy UIOF for Rs800 Crore: Economic Times</li> <li>Amazon Unit Plans to Open Data Centers in Middle East by 2019</li> <li>IPhone Disappointment Hammers Suppliers, Fuels Taiwan Outflows</li> <li>European, U.S. Apple Suppliers May Move After DigiTimes Report</li> <li>Top BP Executive Warns OPEC Needs to Prolong Oil Output Curbs</li> <li>Iron Ore Succumbs to Bear Market and May Extend Slump Into $50s</li> <li>Equifax’s Massive Hack Has a Tiny Silver Lining</li> <li>Trump Tax Plan Said to Cut Taxes for Wealthy and Whack NY and NJ</li> <li>GOP Revises Obamacare Repeal With Bill Headed to Likely Defeat</li> <li>Lockheed Says Talks Ongoing With Japan on Supply of THAAD System</li> </ul> <p><strong>Asia equity markets began the week subdued </strong>as FX took much of the focus amid post-election hangovers from New Zealand and Germany where the incumbents in both won most votes but failed to get majorities, which moves the process on to coalition negotiations. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) were positive with the latter the outperformer on JPY weakness, while a 4- month high Japanese Nikkei Manufacturing PMI and reports that PM Abe is considering a JPY 2tln economic package added to upbeat tone. Chinese markets were subdued with Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) and Hang Seng (-1.1%)&nbsp; negative, as property names suffered from tighter restriction announcements, although the losses in the mainland were stemmed following a firm liquidity operation heading into next week’s National Day holidays. 10yr JGBs were relatively flat as pressure in the safe-haven from a positive risk sentiment in Japan, was counterbalanced by the BoJ’s presence in the market for a respectable amount just shy of JPY1trl in JGBs with 1yr-10yr maturities.</p> <p><em>Top Asian News</em></p> <ul> <li>China Developers Plunge as Government Expands Tightening</li> <li>China Is Said to Plan Closer Oversight of State Company Funds</li> <li>Unilever in $2.7 Billion Deal for Korean Cosmetics Maker</li> </ul> <p><strong>A tepid start for European bourses with a sense of anxiety among investors </strong>following the result of the German election and a surprise rise in support for the far-right AFD party, subsequently, Chancellor Merkel has been left with a less stable position. Notable underperformers have been financial and commodity related names. However, the initial opening gap in European trade was filled through the session, aided by the performance in oil markets. A slight tick lower in German yields have supported bunds this morning with the yield modestly flatter. A soft start for peripherals as spreads widen against their German counterpart with Spain and Italy wider by 1.6bps and 1bps respectively. Further, Saudi Arabia plan to return to the global conventional bond market, as the Kingdom seeks to address the budget deficit and underpin economic reform efforts. Bunds saw a bid following the results of the German Ifo, with extensions of the move evident of political German uncertainty, as Twitter reports stated that the CSU are considering their historical alliance with the CDU following yesterday's result.</p> <p><em>Top European News</em></p> <ul> <li>BOE Seeks Brexit Deal to Protect Existing Derivative Contracts</li> <li>German Business Confidence Unexpectedly Drops for Second Month</li> <li>Turkish Stocks Decline As Kurdish Referendum Weighs on Sentiment</li> <li>Peripheral Euro Bonds Sell Off in Aftermath of German Election</li> </ul> <p><strong>In FX, </strong>the EUR suffered following the weekend results despite Chancellor Merkel being set for a fourth term. Merkel’s CDU/CSU performed weaker than expected and will now need to undertake coalition discussions, likely set to attempt to form a ‘Jamaica’ Coalition with the FDP and Green Parties, with FDP being an initial hurdle. EUR/USD rejected 1.20 on Friday, and struggled as Asian trade began, trading through 1.19, now consolidating just above these levels. EUR/GBP saw similar price action, finding support ahead of September’s lows. A break through the 0.8774 area could see trade once again in the start of 2017’s trading range. NZD was also heavy following their election results, and in line with Germany, despite a victory for the National Party, a majority was also not secured. This places the next government at the hands of New Zealand First Party’s leader and effective ‘kingmaker’ Winston Peters, who is all too familiar with this obligation having supported both the National Party and main opposition Labour in past governments. NZD/USD find some support following initial selling pressure, support at September 18th’s low held, with some buying evident around these levels. AUD/NZD held just through 1.0800, yet continuing to show a downward trend following the stacked offers seen around 1.1150 through September.</p> <p><strong>In commodities, </strong>prices were mostly range-bound which kept WTI subdued, while copper was unchanged amid a subdued risk tone. Elsewhere, gold (-0.3%) was pressured from early trade due to a firmer greenback, after the currency benefitted from political uncertainty weighing on a couple of its major counterparts post-elections.</p> <p><strong>On today's calendar </strong>we have Germany’s IFO indicators on business climate, expectations and current assessment all of which missed expectations <strong>(Current Conditions 123.6 vs Exp. 124.8; Expectations 107.4, Exp. 107.9; Business Climate 115.2, exp. 116</strong>). Over in the US, there is the Chicago Fed National and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index.</p> <p><strong>US Event Calendar</strong></p> <ul> <li>8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.2, prior 0</li> <li>8:30am: Fed’s Dudley Speaks on Workforce Development</li> <li>10:30am: Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. 11.5, prior 17</li> <li>12:40pm: Fed’s Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy</li> <li>6:30pm: Fed’s Kashkari Speaks at Townhall in Grand Forks, North Dakota</li> </ul> <p><strong>DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap</strong></p> <p>3 months today until Xmas. How time flies. Normally I’d associate Xmas with relaxing, lie-ins and having good family time. However Xmas will now be forever associated in my eyes with the utter chaos of my current life. I’ll let readers do their own arithmetic but 2 year old Maisie was due on September 23rd and the twins were technically due yesterday (they are nearly 4 weeks now!). So to avoid yet more chaos in 12 months’ time this Xmas you’ll be most likely to find me in a Tibetan monastery.</p> <p>One wonders how whether Mrs Merkel would like her own private retreat to prepare herself for the difficult time ahead after a disappointing yet still overwhelming victory in yesterday's German election. As we highlighted last week, the election was always going to be purely about the coalition arithmetic and deals. These are likely to be more difficult after the results. To recap Mrs Merkel's CDU/SCU polled 33% (37% in final polls on Friday) against the SPD's 20.5% (22% in final polls). Combined these two parties saw their lowest share of the vote since World War II (since 1949 for Merkel’s party). The AfD (Alternatives for Germany) came third with 12.6% of votes (11% expected on Friday) and will now be the first far right party in the Bundestag since the Nazi party. They beat the pro-business FDP (10.7% - Free democrats Party), Greens (8.9%) and the post-Communist Left (9.2%). Given that the SPD now want to be the main opposition rather than join in another grand coalition, the so called Jamaican coalition of the CDU/SCU, FDP and Greens is likely, but there will be some big idealogical differences to negotiate around. The FDP are known to be against further Euro integration which will be one of the key takeaways from the election. The FDP leader Christian Lindner has indicated a willingness to join in coalition talks, but said that "We want to organise a change of direction for our country” and also tweeted that "€60bn Eurozone budget flowing into France or Italy is inconceivable for us...a line in the sand”. Meanwhile, a leading Green politician told broadcaster ZDF that talks will be "very hard, we are far apart&nbsp; on many issues".</p> <p>I spoke to DB's Mark Wall after the results and we discussed the impact on euro area integration. As Mark said, earlier this summer the "Macron Pivot" suggested a surprising counter thrust against anti-EU populism. Marcon turned to Merkel for support to strengthen the euro area with a new integration push. However her capacity to reciprocate may be a lot more limited now. Some might see Macron's proposals -- due to be fleshed out in a speech tomorrow -- as unhelpful in the circumstances, in timing if not in substance. Mark thinks Germany will be less able to relax its traditional demand for strong conditionality on any new common funds and the speed of progress towards an agreement could now be slower and more fraught. If the result takes upward pressure off the euro it may help cement an ECB exit announcement on 26 October in line with baseline expectations (six month extension of QE at EUR40bn), but hopes for a significant policy rebalancing for the euro area, facilitated by easier fiscal&nbsp; policy/support for economic convergence, are likely to get dialled back. It could also make it more difficult for Merkel to gather the support necessary for a Weidmann Presidency of the ECB, if that was the plan. So lots to chew over.</p> <p>Elsewhere, France’s Macron suffered a small set back with his party losing 6 seats as the Senate renewed 170 out of its 348 seats. Notably, the practical impact is likely limited near term as the National assembly (where Macron has a clear majority) has the final say in legislations over the Senate. However it perhaps reflects that his honeymoon as leader has been pretty short.</p> <p>This morning, the EURUSD is trading a touch weaker (-0.18%) as we type. Asian markets are mixed but little changed as we type, with the Kospi (-0.44%), Hang Seng (-0.83%) and Chinese bourses (-0.3%) all down modestly, while the Nikkei (+0.58%) and ASX 200 (+0.19%) are both up slightly. Japanese stocks have been helped by reports that Japan's Abe will announce a fresh stimulus package alongside the expected snap election decision later this morning. </p> <p>After the dust has settled in Germany, the most important event of this week is likely to be the latest on the tax reform agenda in the US. This weekend in between going to 2nd birthday parties, changing tens of nappies, trying to watch Liverpool play while bathing a toddler, hours of sterilising bottle feeding and milk expressing equipment, and being forced into action every couple of hours at night, I managed to read the very useful "A primer on tax reform and the upcoming budget debate" by DB's Brett Ryan. In reading this you get a feel for how complicated things are and how possible it'll be that nothing gets done. Regular legislation would take 60 votes in the Senate and bipartisan support and allow for proper tax reform. However this is seemingly impossible. The reality is that any changes will likely be made through the reconciliation process. However this first requires a budget being passed by Congress which hasn't been achieved since the Democratic super-majority in 2009-10.</p> <p>The only good news is that we think that any positive tax reform has been priced out of markets so there's a limit to how much disappointment there can be to continued failure. This week we would expect a vague outline of what will be pursued from the so-called "Big 6" (including Treasury Sec Mnuchin, Gary Cohn, Ryan, Senate majority leader McConnell). Overnight, the Washington post reported Republicans were “targeting” a corporate tax rate of 20%, but plans remains fluid. Elsewhere, Trump said “we’ll see what happens, but I hope it’s going to be 15%”, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said the upcoming tax plan will be “getting rid of lots of deductions”.</p> <p>So with German politics in a state of flux and US politics increasingly fraught, suddenly the UK looks a bit of a stable safe haven after Mrs May's speech on Friday. Although it hasn't unlocked doors, it’s been seen as a step in the right direction away from the likelihood of a hard Brexit. In the speech, PM May clarified: 1) UK would seek a transitional deal that would allow continue market access on current terms for c2 years post Brexit (under the framework of 'the existing structure of EU rules and regulations), which in effect leaves UK as a rules taker in the EU until March 2021, 2) UK is committed to the current EU budgetary round to 2020 and meeting past financial commitments, but avoided explicit numbers on the divorce bill, but 3) in terms of a future trade agreement, there was little new in terms of content, although she ruled out both EEA and Canada style options. Overall, DB’s Oliver Harvey believes the tone of her speech was constructive and the initial reaction from EU negotiator Barnier has been cautiously positive. For more details. Later on, the Times reported Mrs May is willing to pay up to GBP40bln in return for a transition deal. Focus now turns to the EU-UK Brexit talks which resume today.</p> <p>Quickly recapping the market’s performance on Friday. US (S&amp;P +0.06%) and European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.09%) were little changed following North Korea’s threat of testing a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific Ocean. Gold rose 0.47% and core bond markets were slightly firmer (UST 10y yields -2.7bp; Bunds -0.7bp; Gilts -0.9bp), partly reflecting the bias for safe haven assets. The US dollar index dipped 0.10% while Sterling fell 0.56% not helped by Moody's late downgrade. In commodities, WTI oil rose 0.22%, while Iron Ore continues to fall (-3.83%; -12% for the week) on growing concerns of reduced&nbsp; demand from Chinese steel producers.</p> <p>Away from the markets and onto central bankers’ commentaries. In the US, the Fed’s John Williams said “I do expect us to need to raise rates gradually….it’s not like we need to raise rates a lot over the&nbsp; next couple of years”. He also noted a “new normal” for rates may be 2.5%. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Esther George reiterated “I support an approach that removes (financial) accommodation in small doses” and the Fed’s Robert Kaplan noted “there are number of reasons the US isn’t reaching its inflation target and a number of those are not transitory”. Over in Europe, ECB’s VP Vitor Constancio noted “the recent euro appreciation may have a more limited dampening effect on inflation than what would be implied by historical averages”.</p> <p>Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from Friday. The MarkitSeptember flash PMIs for Germany and Eurozone was above market’s expectations. In Germany, the composite PMI rose 2ppts to 57.8 (vs. 55.7 expected), marking a 77 month high. The solid growth was driven by both the manufacturing sector (60.6 vs. 59 expected) and the services sector (55.6 vs. 53.7 expected). The Eurozone’s composite PMI also surprised on the upside, with the index up 1ppt to 56.7 (vs. 55.6 expected), just below this year’s cyclical highs. DB’s Peter Sidorov noted the rise was seen in both sectors, with manufacturing reaching new cyclical highs (led by Germany). In services, there were big rebounds in both Germany and France.</p> <p>Over in the US, the composite PMI fell 0.7pts to 55.6 (vs. 55.3 previous), with a 0.2pt rise in the manufacturing PMI to 53.0 more than offset by a 0.9pt decline in the services PMI to 55.1 (vs. 55.7 expected). Elsewhere, the final readings for France’s 2Q GDP was broadly unchanged at 0.5% qoq and 1.8% yoy (vs. 1.7% expected).</p> <p>To the week ahead now. Today starts with Germany’s IFO indicators on business climate, expectations and current assessment. Over in the US, there is the Chicago Fed National and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index. Onto Tuesday, Japan’s services producer price index will be out early in the morning. Then in France, there is manufacturing and business confidence indicators. In the UK,finance loans for housing are due. Over in the US, there is the CB consumer&nbsp; confidence index, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, CoreLogic house price data for key cities as well as new home sales data. Turning to Wednesday, Italy’s July industrial orders along with confidence indicators on manufacturing, consumer and economic sentiment will be due. France’s consumer confidence and the Eurozone’s M3 money supply data are also due. Over in the US, there is durable and capital goods orders for August, pending home sales and MBA mortgage applications. For Thursday, Germany’s September CPI (with state based CPI data) and GfK consumer confidence readings will be due. For the Eurozone, there is a range of confidence indicators including: consumers, business climate, economy and industrial. Over in the US, there is the third reading of 2Q GDP, Core PCE and personal consumption. Elsewhere, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity index, August wholesale inventories and stats on continuing claims and initial jobless claims are also due. Finally on Friday, there will be numerous data out of Japan early in the morning, including: August national CPI, IP, jobless rate, retail sales and vehicle production. Further, China’s Caixin China PMI manufacturing index and UK’s GfK consumer confidence will also be out early. Then we have CPI for the Eurozone along with CPI &amp; PPI for France and Italy. In Germany, there is unemployment change for September. In the UK, there is the final reading of 2Q GDP along with mortgage approvals and money supply M4 stats. Over in the US, there is PCE core for August, personal income and spending, the Chicago PMI along with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1502" height="900" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> AfD party Angela Merkel Apple ASX 200 Bank of England Bank of Japan Barclays Bear Market Bond Budget Deficit Business CDU/CSU Chancellors of Germany Chicago Fed Chicago Fed Nat Activity Chicago PMI China Christian Democratic Union of Germany Coalition government Congress Consumer Confidence Consumer Sentiment Continuing Claims Copper CPI Crude Dallas Fed Dallas Fed Die Linke Donald Trump Equity Markets European Central Bank European Parliament European Union Eurozone federal government flash France Free Democratic Party German federal election Germany Gilts Grand coalition Grand Coalition Green Party Hang Seng 40 Hong Kong Initial Jobless Claims Italy Japan Jim Reid John Williams Kansas City Fed KIM Kospi Labour Party M3 Maori Party Merkel’s Party Michigan Middle East Middle East Monetary Policy Money Supply MSCI Asia Pacific National Party Nazi Party New Home Sales New Zealand New Zealand First Party Nikkei Nikkei 225 North Korea Obamacare OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Personal Consumption Personal Income Politics of Europe Politics of Germany Price Action Real estate Reality Republican Party Richmond Fed S&P 500 S&P/ASX 200 Saudi Arabia Senate Social Democratic party Star Movement Stoxx 600 the University of Michigan Time Warner Top Overnight News Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union Topix Twitter Twitter U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Unemployment University Of Michigan US Dollar Index West Texas Wholesale Inventories Yen Yuan ZDF Mon, 25 Sep 2017 10:53:06 +0000 Tyler Durden 604104 at