http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/article/article/index.php/homes/item/21-does-the-mainstream-media-assist-wall-street-in-hypocritical-hypothesis-for-fear-of-the-next-paradigm-shift en Under Armour's Stock Crashed... So CEO Built A Whiskey Distillery http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/under-armours-stock-crashed-so-ceo-built-whiskey-distillery <p><a href="http://stockboardasset.com/insights-and-research/armours-stock-crashed-ceo-builds-whiskey-distillery/"><em>Via StockBoardAsset.com,</em></a></p> <p><strong>It&rsquo;s no secret that Under Armour&rsquo;s stock has crashed -65% since 4Q2015.</strong> The apparel bubble seems to be experiencing something called mean reversion with the possibility of further downside in excess of -29%.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_UA1.png"><img height="272" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_UA1_0.png" width="560" /></a></p> <p>At or around today&rsquo;s fair market value, industry comps show &lt;UA&gt; at a startling 43.7 P/E on expectations of growth compared to competitors.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_UA2.png"><img height="217" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_UA2_0.png" width="560" /></a></p> <p><strong>Under Armour&rsquo;s declining margins and profitability over the past three years is alarming.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_UA3.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_UA3.png" style="width: 560px; height: 225px;" /></a></p> <p>Glancing at US Imports of Apparel Footwear and Household Goods, <strong>it appears the&nbsp;industry has been stagnating for the past two years. Hello consumer?</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_UA4.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_UA4_0.png" style="width: 560px; height: 259px;" /></a></p> <p>As the equity crashed, Kevin Plank (CEO) of Under Armour was selling stock in force. During this same time period, he built&nbsp;his own&nbsp;whiskey distillery called Sagamore Spirit to smoothly sip away the pain not less than a mile away from head quarters.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/szEGGn58udo" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>In the same timeframe, he built&nbsp;an extravagant hotel called&nbsp;Sagamore Pendry Baltimore not less than a mile away from head quarters.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hO9f1xq_sZ0" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>20 miles north in Baltimore County, Maryland. Plank&rsquo;s Sagamore Farm turns out premium thoroughbred horses for the flat track.</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/eIqEDPlbH9M" width="560"></iframe></p> <p><u><strong>Conclusion:</strong></u> <strong>Only in the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s zero-lower-bound-land</strong> can an apparel company&rsquo;s CEO build his own&nbsp;whiskey distillery and hotel a stones&#39; throw away from head quarters, as his stock price is eviscerated... Meanwhile, just north of the city fund a large operation turning out premium&nbsp;thoroughbred horses.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1053" height="630" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170523_ua11.jpg?1495550249" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/under-armours-stock-crashed-so-ceo-built-whiskey-distillery#comments Baltimore metropolitan area Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area Business Federal Reserve Kevin Plank Maryland Mean Reversion Reisterstown, Maryland Sachem Sagamore Sagamore Farm Sagamore Pendry Baltimore US Federal Reserve Tue, 23 May 2017 18:36:36 +0000 Tyler Durden 596485 at http://www.zerohedge.com Gundlach: "Bitcoin Up 100%, China Down 10%, Coincidence?" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/gundlach-bitcoin-100-china-down-10-coincidence <p>DoubleLine&#39;s Jeffrey Gundlach dropped a subtle hint at yet another driver of the recent surge in virtual currencies...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Bitcoin up 100% in under 2 months. Shanghai down almost 10% same timeframe, compared to most global stocks up. Probably not a coincidence!</p> <p>&mdash; Jeffrey Gundlach (@TruthGundlach) <a href="https://twitter.com/TruthGundlach/status/867069946932609024">May 23, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <p>So this happened...<strong> Chinese stocks slumped as the rest of the world soared.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/06/20170508_Spot.jpg"><img height="315" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/06/20170508_Spot_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And this happened...<strong> Virtual currencies were bid as global uncertainty soared</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170520_BTC1.jpg"><img height="323" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170520_BTC1_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So is this is a coincidence? As China&#39;s monetary conditions are tightened to crackdown on speculative leverage, stocks have seen outflows and Bitcoin inflows...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_Gundlach1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_Gundlach1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And is this the same coincidence? As the broad trade-weighted value of the Renminbi collapses...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_Gundlach2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_Gundlach2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 311px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The question is - what happens next? Does China fold and re-enable leverage to avoid catastrophic failure in its bond/stock markets? Or does The Fed fold in June sparking chaotic weakness in the USD?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="962" height="506" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170523_Gundlach1.jpg?1495561443" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/gundlach-bitcoin-100-china-down-10-coincidence#comments Alternative currencies Bitcoin Bitcoin Bond Business China Cryptocurrencies Currency Economy Gundlach Gundlach Money Renminbi Renminbi US Federal Reserve Tue, 23 May 2017 18:20:59 +0000 Tyler Durden 596506 at http://www.zerohedge.com 30 Pillars of “How To Win Friends and Influence People” http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/30-pillars-%E2%80%9Chow-win-friends-and-influence-people%E2%80%9D <p><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/30-pillars-of-how-to-win-friends-and-influence-people/">Via The Daily Bell</a></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Turns out, actually being a genuinely good person is the easiest&nbsp;way to have&nbsp;influence over others, and&nbsp;get them to&nbsp;like you–weird, I know.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;"><img src="https://ir-na.amazon-adsystem.com/e/ir?t=joejarme-20&amp;l=li3&amp;o=1&amp;a=0671027034" width="1" height="1" border="0" style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;" />In 1936 Dale Carnegie wrote&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">How to Win Friends and Influence People</em>&nbsp;after intense study of effective leadership, the psychology behind why people like each other, and how to approach tough situations without giving offense.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Far from being sneaky ways to get what you want, or sleazy selling tactics, the ways Carnegie describes how to properly interact&nbsp;with others&nbsp;would make the world a better place if universally adopted. You could recognize one of these tactics being used on you, and still feel no ill will towards the person employing it.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">This is an&nbsp;overview of the key takeaways from&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">How to Win Friends and Influence People</em>.&nbsp;<a href="http://amzn.to/2hRjl3H" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #0c5b3c;">Read the whole book</a>&nbsp;to get the most benefit from Carnegie’s lessons, and bookmark this page for a quick reference.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Think of&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">How to Win Friends and Influence People</em>, as oil&nbsp;for the gears of society.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">1. “Don’t criticize, condemn, or complain.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">It just makes people defensive and breeds resentment. Criticizing and condemning makes it harder for someone to admit they are wrong because they feel the desire to justify&nbsp;their actions or thoughts. Even if they change their mind, it will not be a lasting change.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">2. “Give honest and sincere appreciation.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Everyone wants to feel needed and important. Those who fulfill this craving for others will be held in high esteem. But it is easy to tell shallow flattery from actual recognition of good qualities and hard work. Look for qualities worthy of commendation.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">3. “Arouse in the other person an eager want.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Dale Carnegie didn’t like to eat worms, but strangely enough, he fished with worms and did pretty well. How well would he have done if he fished with what&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">he</em>&nbsp;loved: strawberries and cream? Talk about the other person’s desires, and show them how to get there.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">4. “Become genuinely interested in other people.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">You don’t need to be nearly as interesting as you need to be&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">interested</em>. People can tell if you are faking it, so you really need to find pleasure in learning about others. Make it a sort of game to dig deep enough to find something exotic about even the banalest acquaintances.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">5. “Smile.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">You have control over your thoughts, so choose to be happy. Being positive goes a long way and is infectious. Having an authentic smile on your face is an easy way to increase the chances&nbsp;that someone is going to like you.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">6. “Remember that a person’s name is to that person the sweetest and most important sound in any language.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Remember names! And say their name often. It shows others they are important enough to you to be remembered. Better yet, name something after them! Maybe not your dog…</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">7. “Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">It is easy to think we need to say the right things to get someone to like us, but it is more about allowing them to have their say. We all have interests that we are passionate about and want to talk about. When we find a sincerely interested audience, it makes us feel appreciated and important.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">8. “Talk in terms of the other person’s interests.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">If you are interested in others, they will be interested in you. Just find something about a person that you know interests them, and set out to learn about it. Ask them to explain the interest, and they will enjoy your company while telling you.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">9. “Make the other person feel important–and do it sincerely.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Everybody wants to be appreciated. Don’t you remember countless times when you achieved something or put a lot of energy into a project only to be met with silence? It’s like no one even noticed!&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Dinner was great, the yard looks nice, great job on that assignment!</em>&nbsp;If there is something important to someone, recognize their work and it will make them feel important.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">10. “The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Even when you “win” an argument, the other person generally reverts back to their old opinion as soon as you part ways. From the get-go, an argument actually makes us dig in because we feel like we have something on the line and can’t admit we were wrong. When you disagree with someone, take the opportunity to sincerely reflect on why, and welcome hearing about the new perspective. You never know, maybe cats are better than dogs after all.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">11. “Show respect for the other person’s opinions. Never say, you’re wrong.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">If you are right more than 50% of the time, then why don’t you work on Wall Street? Ask questions if you truly think you are right, and the person will usually come over through their own thought processes.&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Allow&nbsp;yourself</em>&nbsp;to understand the other person, even (or especially) if they are wrong.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">12. “If you are wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;"><a href="https://joejarvis.me/2017/01/24/why-i-started-admitting-i-was-wrong/" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #0c5b3c;">It is liberating to admit when you are wrong</a>. It removes such a burden of having to always figure out how to stay right. We are going to be wrong sometimes, just a fact. Being wrong doesn’t have to be embarrassing, and admitting it quickly is the easiest way to save face, and in fact get more respect and agreement from those involved.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">13. “Begin in a friendly way.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Why make life hard for yourself? “The sun can make you take off your coat more quickly than the wind; and kindliness, the friendly approach, and appreciation can make people change their minds more readily than all the bluster and storming in the world.”</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">14. “Get the other person saying, ‘yes, yes’ immediately.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Always start with, and continue to emphasize, what you agree on. Start small with something you know they will say yes to, and lead them gently down a path of agreement until they embrace “a conclusion they would have bitterly denied a few minutes previously.”</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">15. “Let the other person do a great deal of the talking.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">The best illustration of this principle is in dealing with children. Instead of constantly yelling, ordering, and demanding of a disobedient child, what works better is to hear them out. Sometimes all people need to be agreeable is to be heard, and if you sincerely listen to them, frustration and negativity&nbsp;usually evaporate.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">16. “Let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Who cares about getting credit? If you want someone to agree with you, it is better to let them think any plans you had were their ideas. We are much more likely to support and be excited about our own concoctions.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">17. “Try honestly to see things from the other person’s point of view.”</h2> <blockquote style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 10px 20px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; font-size: 17.5px; border-left: 5px solid #eeeeee; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">“Stop a minute,” says Kenneth M. Good in his book&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">How to Turn People into Gold, “</em>stop a minute to contrast your keen interest in your own affairs with your mild concern about anything else. Realize then, that everybody else in the world feels exactly the same way! … success in dealing with people depends on a sympathetic grasp of the other person’s viewpoint.”</p> </blockquote> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">18. “Be sympathetic with the other person’s ideas and desires.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">The magic phrase is:&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">I would feel the same if I were in your position</em>. Be sympathetic! Just telling someone you understand their frustration does wonders to calm them, even if you cannot do another single thing to help.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">19. “Appeal to the nobler motives.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">This is why people get their way when they can convince others what they want is “for the children.” J.P. Morgan said there are two reasons a person does something, “one that sounds good, and a real one.” Appeal to the one that sounds good, because we are all “idealists at heart.” Basically, emotion works better than logic.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">20. “Dramatize your ideas.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">“Merely stating a truth isn’t enough. The truth has to be made vivid, interesting, dramatic.” Think of interesting and fun ways to present your ideas that catch people off guard, and draw them in.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">21. “Throw down a challenge.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Or maybe you’re too scared to throw down a challenge. No? Why don’t you prove it then? It’s a great tactic to challenge someone to&nbsp;persevere, but it takes a special man or woman to do it right. Think you can handle it?</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">22. “Begin with praise and honest appreciation.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">“A barber lathers a man before he shaves him.” Sometimes it is necessary to be a critic or give someone a difficult answer. The cushion for this pain–the dentist’s Novocaine for an unpleasant but necessary drilling–should be honest praise and appreciation.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">23. “Call attention to people’s mistakes indirectly.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Change the word “but” to “and”. Begin with sincere praise, and don’t&nbsp;bring doubt to the initial sincerity by using the word but. Still, begin with honest appreciation, and relate the praise to what you are trying to change. Would I feel better about hearing, “I love your book, but it would make a better movie,” or “I love your book, and the action would play out especially well on screen.” It’s the same message.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">24. “Talk about your own mistakes before criticizing the other person.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">I have a treasure trove of mistakes to pull from, so this one comes easy for me! Criticizing yourself&nbsp;puts you in the same boat as the person you need to critique, so they aren’t so defensive. The best advice available is from others who have made similar blunders.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">25. “Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">If you are in a position of power and give a direct order, you can expect it will be done. You can also expect to stoke an “us versus them” mentality between the order givers and the order takers. If you make a question or suggestion of the order, however, this makes the receiver a participant, and might even stoke enough creativity to get the thing accomplished in a better way. Certainly, it will quell any resentment on the part of subordinates.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">26. “Let the other person save face.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">If a bird gets in your house, is it more effective to corner it and trap it, or to leave a window open for it to fly out? The number one rule of diplomacy is to always give the other person an out without damaging their ego. If your kid loves to help you garden, but crushes the flowers, promote him to head leaf raker.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">27. “Praise the slightest improvement, and praise every improvement.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Praise to humans is like sunlight to plants, it is the warm sunshine we need to grow. Nowhere is this more obvious than with children. They want to please their parents, and if they can’t do that they will settle for whatever attention they can get. Clearly, the best idea is to praise the good behaviors so that their outlet for attention will be positive. It’s the same with dogs and adults, though you might have to be less obvious about it. “Who’s a good employee? Yes, you are! Want a belly rub?” Maybe not.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">28. “Give the other person a fine reputation to live up to.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">I know everyone reading this was naturally doing most of these things anyway, and this article will only strengthen the reserve to continue on the path of making friends and influencing people just by being empathetic, intelligent, and thoughtful in your interactions, which comes so easy to you anyway.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">29. “Use encouragement. Make the fault seem easy to correct.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Telling someone they are terrible at something is a sure way to discourage them, make them internalize that feeling, and perhaps they even give up. Instead,&nbsp;tell someone they just need the practice to get better. Pick out the good from the bad to&nbsp;encourage perseverance, and better outcomes and any mistakes will naturally smooth out.</p> <h2 style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif; font-weight: 500; line-height: 1.1; color: #303030; margin-top: 20px; font-size: 30px;">30. “Make the other person happy about doing the thing you suggest.”</h2> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">When you know someone isn’t going to like what you have to tell them, best to frame it in a way they&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">will</em>&nbsp;like or follow immediately with a great alternative. If you have to let them down, bring attention to a positive route forward.&nbsp;“Make sure you check out that&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">beautiful</em>&nbsp;full moon while taking out the garbage!”</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">These are the basics, but the real fun in reading&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;"><a href="http://amzn.to/2hRjl3H" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #0c5b3c;">How to Win Friends and Influence People</a></em>&nbsp;is the historical examples that Carnegie gives. It’s a classic that is still just as interesting and relevant as when it came out. It provides countless solutions on how to properly get your point across without alienating others.<br style="box-sizing: border-box;" /><a href="https://www.amazon.com/How-Win-Friends-Influence-People/dp/0671027034/ref=as_li_ss_il?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1481804378&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=how+to+win+friends&amp;linkCode=li3&amp;tag=joejarme-20&amp;linkId=a21de22b5e6b322174c0c8494c06c634" target="_blank" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #0c5b3c; text-decoration-line: underline; outline: 0px;" rel="noopener noreferrer"><img src="https://ws-na.amazon-adsystem.com/widgets/q?_encoding=UTF8&amp;ASIN=0671027034&amp;Format=_SL250_&amp;ID=AsinImage&amp;MarketPlace=US&amp;ServiceVersion=20070822&amp;WS=1&amp;tag=joejarme-20" width="191" height="302" border="0" style="box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin: 5px auto; height: auto !important;" class=" aligncenter" /></a></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/30-pillars-%E2%80%9Chow-win-friends-and-influence-people%E2%80%9D#comments Attitude change Change Criticism Draft:Noah Cronbaugh Full Moon How to Win Friends and Influence People Literature Persuasion Philosophy The Art of Happiness Tue, 23 May 2017 18:17:39 +0000 TDB 596509 at http://www.zerohedge.com Bank Of America: "These Markets Are Very Weird" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/bank-america-these-markets-are-very-weird <p>In the latest delightful note from serious "non-tinfoil" sources confirming just how broken the market has become (and how right all those who said central banking and HFT would eventually break it), Bank of America's vol expert Benjamin Bowler and team just released a report titled with the self-explanatory "<strong>While not obvious on the surface, these markets are very weird</strong>."</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/bofa%20wierd.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/bofa%20wierd_0.jpg" width="602" height="111" /></a></p> <p>Actually, for anyone who has traded <em>these markets</em> in the "before" and "after" central planning phases, it is all too obvious just how weird the markets have become.</p> <p>For the benefit of all other 17-year-old hedge fund managers and 24-year-old math PhD quants, what BofA finds striking is that "last week’s sudden shock to US equities, and rapid rebound, <strong>yet again demonstrated the historically unusual tendency for markets to jump quickly from calm to stress and back </strong>(“fragility”)."</p> <p>BofA's peeve with the market's "Buy-The-Dip" reflex is hardly new, and was first pointed out by <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-14/not-onion-fed-jeopardizing-buy-dip-trade-bofa-warns">Bowler in mid-March</a>, when the strategist lamented that "<strong>perversely, US equity sell-offs have seemingly become embraced as alpha (i.e., buy-the-dip) opportunities instead of being feared as bona fide risk-off events, as the central bank put has become a self-fulfilling prophecy.</strong>"</p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/06/bofa%20btd%203.2_0.jpg" width="601" height="534" /></p> <p>Two months later, it's more of the same as BofA notes that the -1.8% drop in the S&amp;P 500 on 17-May <strong>was a five standard deviation (5-<strong>sigma</strong>) event vs. trailing volatility, </strong>the third such outsized drawdown in stocks in less than a year, <strong>but only the 18th since 1928. </strong></p> <p>What is more surprising is that the sudden air pocket was immediately followed <strong>by the second-fastest retracement of a 5-sigma drop since 1928, </strong>illustrating the power of today’s “buy the dip” mindset. And while some, such as Deutsche Bank most recently, have called the market's apparent invincibility a function of the "Trump put" which has allegedly replaced the "Fed put", to BofA there is something bigger in play:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The fact it occurred in the face of risks to Trump’s policy agenda illustrates that today’s Pavlov buy the dip is not a Trump put, <strong>but something more powerful</strong>. The sudden jolt to US equities <strong>also catalysed record spikes in vol of vol and SPX skew last week</strong>. For those concerned that Trump’s policy agenda may be diluted, delayed, or possibly defeated in the coming months and catalyse a grind lower in stocks, <strong>we like leveraging steep skew via SPX put spreads and down &amp; out puts as hedge</strong>s.</p> </blockquote> <p>Is that really the weirdest thing about the market?</p> <p>Hardly: we have spent the better part of the past 8 years showing and documenting precisely that - bizarre market outlier events, and in this particular case, the market's insta-rebound response has been repeatedly documented by JPM's Marco Kolanovic, who has shown how progressively shorter the half-life of every selloff has become. However, we find it useful that more "professionals" not only observe but quietly complain against what is clearly an artifact of a broken market structure: after all that may be the only way something ever changes.</p> <p><em>Here are some additional observations from BofA, which is clearly fascinated with the "<strong>Third 5-sigma SPX drawdown in &lt;1yr followed by 2nd-fastest retracement in history</strong>"</em></p> <p>* * *</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Last Wednesday’s (17-May) sudden shock to US equities, and the ensuing rapid rebound, provides the latest illustration of the capacity for markets to jump extraordinarily quickly from states of calm to stress and back – a dynamic we called market “fragility” in our 2016 Outlook. Consider that:</p> <ul> <li>Prior to the -1.8% drawdown in the S&amp;P 500 on 17-May, the realized volatility of the S&amp;P had been 5.7% (36bps daily vol).1 Hence the equity decline, while not large nominally, was in fact a five standard deviation (5-sigma) event (1.8% / 0.36%) when accounting for how low volatility was prior to the shock (Chart 7).</li> <li>The last such 5-sigma event occurred on 9-Sep-16, when stocks were jolted out of their summer lull by weakness in bond markets, and prior to that on 24-Jun-16 following the Brexit vote (Chart 7). In other words, the past 229 trading days have delivered three 5-sigma drawdowns in the S&amp;P 500 (1.3% frequency of occurrence)<strong>. In contrast, the prior 22,222 trading days (i.e., since Jan 1928) witnessed only 15 such drawdowns – a frequency of 0.07%, or 19x less frequent.</strong></li> <li>Perhaps even more remarkable than the capacity for US equities to jump from calm to stress today is their ability to revert astoundingly quickly back to a state of calm. Chart 8 shows that in the three trading days since 17-May, the S&amp;P 500 has recouped 85% of its 1.8% decline. This is the second-fastest retracement of a 5-sigma drawdown in the history of the S&amp;P 500 and not dissimilar from the speed of recovery seen both after Brexit and in Sep-16.</li> <li><strong>These records underscore our view that market shocks have come to be viewed by investors as alpha opportunities rather than marking the onset of rising uncertainty. </strong>Initially, a<strong> clearly visible and high strike Fed put taught the market to “buy the dip”; now, however, this behaviour has simply become a learned response function.</strong></li> </ul> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/bofa%20vix%201.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/bofa%20vix%201_0.jpg" width="500" height="205" /></a></p> <p>Sudden jolt to US equities led to record rise in vol of vol and SPX skew In equity volatility, the effects of the outsized drop in US equities on 17-May were profoundly felt in skew and vol of vol. VVIX, which measures the implied volatility of 1M VIX options, experienced its largest one day rise (34.7 points) since Feb-07 (not coincidentally another 5-sigma shock to US equities). S&amp;P 500 3M implied volatility skew experienced the largest rise in stress among GFSI’s 43 sub-components by a factor of nearly 2x (Chart 9) and a 99.8th percentile rise relative to its own history since 2000 (Chart 10).</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>While S&amp;P skew has receded from the extremes reached on 17-May, it remains historically elevated, particularly on the put side where the ratio of 10-delta to 35-delta SPX 3M put premiums (as one example) reached a 10yr+ high on 17-May and ended last week in the 97th percentile based on daily data since May-07 (Chart 11).</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/bofa%20vix%202.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/bofa%20vix%202_0.jpg" width="499" height="392" /></a></p> </blockquote> <p>* * *</p> <p><em>And as a bonus, here are some "notable trends and dislocations" from BofA observed in the aftermath of last week's events:</em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Last week brought a spike in vol amid a potential political scandal unfolding in Washington. On May 17th (last Wednesday), former FBI Director Comey released a memo indicating that President Trump may have tried to influence the Flynn investigation, sending markets to sell off—the S&amp;P declined 1.8% (the largest single-day drop since September 2016), and the VIX jumped 4.94 vol points to 15.59, the largest since Brexit. Vol-of-vol was bid and the move was outsized relative to the move in vol (Chart 17). However, by the end of the week investors bought the dip, and the S&amp;P 500 closed only 0.38% lower while the VIX retreated to 12.04 (by Monday’s close, the VIX was all the way down to 10.93). Major US indices ended the week lower as the Russell 2K recorded the largest decline (-1.12%), followed by the Nasdaq (-0.62%), and the Dow (-0.44%).</p> <ul> <li>Markets sold off on Wed, 17-May, following reports of a memo from former FBI Director Comey that says Trump asked him to stop the investigation of former national security advisor Flynn.</li> <li>The VIX 1M constant maturity future rose 2.17 vol points to 14.24 and vol of vol (VVIX) rose disproportionately higher by 34.72 points in an unprecedented relative move.</li> <li>Similar to post-Brexit, the buy-the-dip mentality kicked in and VVIX quickly reverted ending the week virtually unchanged, only 4.7 points (5.7%) higher than the previous Friday.</li> </ul> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/vol%20broken%201_0.jpg" width="502" height="470" /></p> <p>* * *</p> <p>Last Wednesday (17-May), the VIX 1M constant maturity future rose 2.17 vol points vs. a -1.8% decline in the S&amp;P 500. This beta of -1.2 was outsized relative to the -0.66 beta typically observed.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>One non-fundamental factor that likely helped amplify the move higher in VIX futures was end-of-day rebalancing needs of levered and inverse VIX ETPs, whose gross vega outstanding stood at ~$200mn prior to the 17th. Indeed, <strong>our estimates suggest there was ~$48mn vega to buy on the 17th from these products’ rebalancing flows.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>While this is an optically large amount of vega to put through the market, <strong>we would stress that VIX futures recorded one of their highest volume days in history on the 17th, with the front two contracts alone trading $410mn vega</strong>. Hence rebalancing flows constituted only 11.6% of the front two VIX futures’ volume, well within the bounds observed historically.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/bofa%20vix%2032_0.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/bofa%20vix%2032_0_0.jpg" width="500" height="443" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>* * *&nbsp; </p> <ul> <li>On 15-Aug-71 Nixon introduced his new economic plan and set the beginning of the end of the fixed exchange rates established at the end of World War II. The dollar was effectively devalued, which prompted OPEC to raise oil prices 160%, causing inflation to spike. Coincidentally, the unemployment rate soared as the FED tightened to fight inflation. As with all macro-economic policies, it took time for this to trickle down to the real economy. The GDP growth rate was above 5% in 1972 and in 1973. It subsequently dropped to -0.5% in 1974. Today’s economic environment is obviously quite different from the early 70’s.</li> <li>Nixon served his first mandate as President of the United States from Jan-69 to Jan-73. The height of the Watergate scandal was between 8-Jan-73 (days prior to Nixon’s second inauguration when five defendants in the burglary trials pled guilty) and 9-Aug-74 when Nixon resigned the presidency to then Vice President Gerald Ford (white area on chart).</li> <li><strong>Throughout the period, S&amp;P 500 lost over 40% of its market cap however the economic backdrop prior to the scandal was a large contributor to the decline</strong>. Realized vol trended higher and the period was characterized by three major volatility spikes, which coincided with dissemination of information on the Watergate scandal (Chart 19). Interestingly however, each vol spike reverted to the trend within on average 24 sessions.</li> </ul> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/vol%20broken%202.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/vol%20broken%202_0.jpg" width="506" height="552" /></a></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1082" height="131" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/markets%20wieird%20teaser.jpg?1495564515" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/bank-america-these-markets-are-very-weird#comments Alpha Bank of America Bank of America Bond Bond Business Deutsche Bank Dow 30 Economy FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation Finance fixed Ford Gerald Ford HFT Implied volatility Mathematical finance Money NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 national security OPEC Options Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries recovery Russell Russell 2K S&P S&P 500 S&P 500 Index S&P/ASX 200 VIX Skew Technical analysis Unemployment US Federal Reserve VIX Volatility Volatility Volatility smile Tue, 23 May 2017 18:00:49 +0000 Tyler Durden 596507 at http://www.zerohedge.com In Emerging Markets, It's Time To Dump Most Central Banks, And Their Currencies Too http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/emerging-markets-its-time-dump-most-central-banks-and-their-currencies-too <p><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant-numeric: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 13px; line-height: inherit; font-family: lucida_granderegular, Verdana, sans-serif;">Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.</strong></p> <p><span style="font-size: 13px;">On March 16th, the New York Times carried reportage by Peter S. Goodman, Keith Bradsher and Neil Gough, which was titled “<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/16/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates-china-mexico.html">The Fed Acts. Workers in Mexico and Merchants in Malaysia Suffer.</a>” The theme of their extensive reportage is that U.S. monetary policy is the elephant in the room. It is the elephant that swings exchange rates and capital flows to and fro in emerging-market countries, causing considerable pain.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 13px;">The real problem that all of the countries mentioned in the New York Times reportage face is the fact that they have central banks that issue half-baked local currencies. Although widespread today, central banks are relatively new institutional arrangements. In 1900, there were only 18 central banks in the world. By 1940, the number had grown to 40. Today, there are over 150.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 13px;">Before the rise of central banking the world was dominated by unified currency areas, or blocs, the largest of which was the sterling bloc. As early as 1937, the great Austrian economist Friedrich von Hayek warned that the central banking fad, if it continued, would lead to currency chaos and the spread of banking crises. His forebodings were justified. With the proliferation of central banking and independent local currencies, currency and banking crises have engulfed the international financial system with ever-increasing severity and frequency. What to do?</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 13px;">The obvious answer is for vulnerable emerging-market countries to do away with their central banks and domestic currencies, replacing them with a sound foreign currency. Panama is a prime example of the benefits from employing this type of monetary system. Since 1904, it has used the U.S. dollar as its official currency. Panama’s dollarized economy is, therefore, officially part of the world’s largest currency bloc.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 13px;">The results of Panama’s dollarized monetary system and internationally integrated banking system have been excellent (see accompanying table).</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 13px;"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user222098/imageroot/2017/05/11/FewerCentralBanks%20Table.png" width="652" height="529" /><br /></span></p> <ul> <li>Panama’s GDP growth rates have been relatively high. Since 1994, when the Mexican tequila crisis commenced, real GDP growth has averaged 5.8% per year.</li> <li>Inflation rates have been somewhat lower than those in the U.S. Since 1994, CPI inflation has averaged 2.3% per year.</li> <li>Since Panama’s fiscal authorities can’t borrow from a central bank, the fiscal accounts face a “hard” budget constraint dictated by the bond markets. In consequence, fiscal discipline is imposed, and since 1994, Panama’s fiscal deficit as percent of GDP has averaged 1.7% per year.</li> <li>Interest rates have mirrored world market rates, adjusted for transaction costs and risk.</li> <li>Panama’s real exchange rate has been very stable and on a slightly depreciating trend vis-à-vis that of the U.S.</li> <li>Panama’s banking system, which operates without a central bank lender of last resort, has proven to be extremely resilient. Indeed, it weathered a major political crisis between Panama and the United States in 1988 and made a strong comeback by early 2000.</li> </ul> <p><span style="font-size: 13px;">To avoid the pain described in the New York Times reportage, emerging-market countries should dump their central banks and local currencies. They should follow Panama’s lead and adopt a stable foreign currency. Or, they could install a competitive currency regime, which would allow for more than one foreign currency to be used.</span></p> <p><span style="font-size: 13px;"><br /></span></p> <p><em><span style="font-size: 13px;"><a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2017/03/22/its-time-to-dump-most-central-banks/#352861c45072">This piece was originally published on Forbes.</a></span></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-blog"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_blog" width="550" height="273" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user222098/imageroot/Balboas%20and%20Dollars.jpg?1495561015" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/emerging-markets-its-time-dump-most-central-banks-and-their-currencies-too#comments Bond Business Central bank Central Banks CPI Currency Currency substitution Economy Exchange rate Foreign exchange market Global financial system International finance International trade Mexico Monetary hegemony Monetary Policy Monetary policy Money New York Times the Johns Hopkins University Twitter Twitter US Federal Reserve Tue, 23 May 2017 17:37:09 +0000 Steve H. Hanke 596505 at http://www.zerohedge.com Congressional Aides Fear Suspects In IT Breach Are Blackmailing Members With Their Own Data http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/congressional-aides-fear-suspects-it-breach-are-blackmailing-members-their-own-data <p><a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/05/21/house-it-aides-fear-suspects-in-hill-breach-are-blackmailing-members-with-their-own-data/?utm_campaign=thedcmainpage"><em>Authored by Luke Rosiak via The Daily Caller, </em></a></p> <p><strong>Congressional technology aides are baffled that data-theft allegations against four former House IT workers &mdash; who were banned from the congressional network &mdash; have largely been ignored, and they fear the integrity of sensitive high-level information.</strong></p> <p>Imran Awan and three relatives were colleagues until <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/04/exclusive-house-intelligence-it-staffers-fired-in-computer-security-probe/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">police banned them</a> from computer networks at the House of Representatives after suspicion the brothers accessed congressional computers without permission.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/22/20170523_it.jpg"><img height="258" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/22/20170523_it_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>Five Capitol Hill technology aides told The Daily Caller News Foundation&rsquo;s Investigative Group&nbsp;that members of Congress have displayed an<u><strong> inexplicable and intense loyalty&nbsp;towards the suspects who&nbsp;police say&nbsp;victimized them.</strong></u> The baffled aides wonder if the suspects are blackmailing representatives based on the contents of their emails and files, to which they had full access.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;I don&rsquo;t know what they have, but they have something on someone. It&rsquo;s been months at this point&rdquo; with no arrests, said Pat Sowers, who has managed IT for several House offices for 12 years. &ldquo;Something is rotten in Denmark.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>A manager at a tech-services company that works with Democratic House offices said he approached congressional offices, offering their services at one-fourth the price of Awan and his Pakistani brothers, but the members declined. At the time, he couldn&rsquo;t understand why his offers were rejected but now he&nbsp;suspects the Awans exerted some type of leverage over members.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;There&rsquo;s no question about it: If I was accused of a tenth of what these guys are accused of, they&rsquo;d take me out&nbsp;in handcuffs that same day, and I&rsquo;d never work again,&rdquo; he said.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>The Awans&rsquo; ban sent 20 members searching for new IT workers, but another contractor claims he&rsquo;s had difficulty convincing offices to let him fill the void, even when he seemed like a shoo-in. He says he has the sense some members wrongly believed that he blew&nbsp;the whistle on the Awans&rsquo; theft and they were angry at him for it.</p> <p><strong><a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/house-democrats-it-staffers-hina-alvi-imran-awan-235569" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Politico</a> reported&nbsp;the Awan crew is&nbsp;&ldquo;accused of stealing equipment from members&rsquo; offices without their knowledge and committing serious, potentially illegal, violations on the House IT network.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>A House IT employee who requested anonymity said tech workers who have taken over some of those offices&nbsp;found that computers in some &mdash; but not all &mdash; offices were &ldquo;thin clients&rdquo; that sent all data to an offsite server in violation of House policies. Additionally, staffers&rsquo; iPhones were all linked to&nbsp;a single non-government iTunes account.</p> <p>Awan began working for Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Florida in 2005, and his wife, his brother&rsquo;s wife, and two of his brothers all appeared on the payrolls of various House Democrats soon after, payroll records show. They have collected <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/03/01/pakistani-suspects-in-house-it-probe-received-4-million-from-dem-reps/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">$4 million</a>&nbsp;since 2010.</p> <p>For years, it was widely known&nbsp;that Awan,&nbsp;and eventually&nbsp;his 20-year-old brother Jamal, did the bulk of the work for various offices, while no-show employees were listed on members&rsquo; staffs in order to collect additional $165,000 salaries, workers said. This circumvented a rule that prevents any one staffer from making more than members of Congress.</p> <p>Members were fiercely protective of the business,&nbsp;despite objectively shoddy work and requests for computer help routinely ignored for weeks, all said. An IT specialist&nbsp;who took over an Awan office said they did not keep an inventory of what hardware was there, and the office was paying for phone lines it hadn&rsquo;t used in years.</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;The number of offices they had would definitely be suspicious. The loyalty [members] had [coupled with] customer service that wasn&rsquo;t there,&rdquo; Sowers said.</strong></p> <p><strong><em>One Democratic IT staffer said Awan&nbsp;&ldquo;would come in and only help the member &mdash; he&rsquo;d tell me this &mdash; because staff come and go. There was one staffer whose computer was broken and said, &lsquo;I&rsquo;m not going to pay my invoices until you fix my computer,&rsquo; and Imran went to the member, and they fired [the staffer who complained] that day. Imran has that power.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>Sowers said, &ldquo;I love the Hill but to see this clear lack of concern over what appears to be a major breach bothers me.&nbsp;Everyone has said for years they were breaking the rules, but it&rsquo;s just been a matter of time.&rdquo;</p> <p>An employee of a third private company with House IT office contracts, who like most of the others requested anonymity, said <strong>the Awans had more offices than anyone, yet &ldquo;there&rsquo;s networkers meetings once a week and I never saw them ever come to them. We have an email group; I never saw them contribute or reply.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>The investigation goes far beyond the theft of millions of dollars. The employees could read all emails dozens of members of Congress sent and received, as well as access any files members and their staff stored. Court records show the brothers ran&nbsp;a side business that <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/21/congressional-computer-admins-in-criminal-probe-owed-money-to-hezbollah-connected-fugitive/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">owed&nbsp;$100,000 to&nbsp;an Iranian fugitive</a>&nbsp;who has been tied to Hezbollah, and their <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/04/30/stepmom-says-house-it-scandal-figure-threatened-kidnappings-of-pakistani-kin/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">stepmother says</a> they often send money to Pakistan.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;When you&rsquo;re an admin for an office, yes, you have access to everything, you&rsquo;re the one providing access for others,&rdquo; the IT specialist said.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Wasserman Schultz, the victim of a disastrous hack while she was chairman of the Democratic National Committee, renamed Awan an &ldquo;advisor&rdquo; to circumvent the Capitol Police&rsquo;s computer network ban on the brothers. Ohio Democratic&nbsp;Rep. Marcia Fudge&rsquo;s office told <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/house-democrats-it-staffers-hina-alvi-imran-awan-235569" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Politico</a> a month after the ban that she had not fired Imran either.</p> <p>After Wasserman Schultz&nbsp;and Fudge, as well as New York Democratic Reps. Gregory Meeks and Yvette Clarke and the House Democratic Caucus office, retained the Awans, the incumbents or their staffs encouraged newly-elected members to place the family on their payrolls.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;You&rsquo;d think in the caucus they&rsquo;d know these guys were working for all of them and they couldn&rsquo;t possibly support all of them. Someone must have been turning a blind eye,&rdquo; the IT specialist said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;You have the power to shut down the office, remove all their data and lock everyone out. It&rsquo;s got to be a trusted adviser. How could you not see this?&nbsp;Maybe it&rsquo;s not specifically blackmail, maybe it&rsquo;s, you knew this was going on and let me do this&rdquo; for years, the specialist continued.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Another Democratic IT contractor said members &ldquo;are saying don&rsquo;t say anything, this will all blow over if we all don&rsquo;t say anything.&rdquo; <u><strong>The Awans&nbsp;&ldquo;<span style="font-weight: 400;">had [members]&nbsp;in their pocket,&rdquo; and &ldquo;there are a lot of members who could go down over this.&rdquo;</span></strong></u></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1200" height="516" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170523_it.jpg?1495545696" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/congressional-aides-fear-suspects-it-breach-are-blackmailing-members-their-own-data#comments Awan Capitol Police Congress Daily Caller News Foundation Democratic National Committee Florida Hizballah House of Representatives Ohio Politics Tue, 23 May 2017 17:35:40 +0000 Tyler Durden 596474 at http://www.zerohedge.com RBC: Welcome To "The Insanity Loop" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/rbc-welcome-insanity-loop <p style="text-align: left;"><em><strong>It&#39;s &quot;Groundhog Day&quot; again... again, </strong></em>scoffs RBC&#39;s head of cross-aset strategy Charlie McElligott in his latest note. For the sake of clarity, he keeps it short and sweet...</p> <p><strong>&gt; &lsquo;Macro range trade&rsquo; persists</strong> - sell &lsquo;reflation&rsquo; at 2.40 in UST 10Y yields, buy &lsquo;reflation&rsquo; at 2.15.</p> <p><strong>&gt; Investor muscle memory remains &lsquo;buy risk- &amp; carry- dips / sell vol rips&rsquo; as PMIs &amp; ISM remain &lsquo;expansive&rsquo;</strong> alongside &lsquo;goldilocks&rsquo; US rates / US Dollar for corporates.</p> <p><strong>&gt;</strong> That said, <strong>rates are currently unable to hit &lsquo;escape velocity&rsquo; due to breakdown in &lsquo;inflation expectations&rsquo;</strong> via the trifecta of &lsquo;Tightening Fed&rsquo; / &lsquo;Deleveraging China&rsquo; / &lsquo;Less-Dovish ECB&rsquo; in conjunction with the fading energy &lsquo;base-effect&rsquo;.</p> <p><strong>&gt;</strong> This 1) &lsquo;disinflationary impulse&rsquo; alongside 2) slowing trajectory of US economic data vs R.O.W. (all G10 stronger against USD over the past wk) 3) fading expectations of US fiscal policy are contributing to the<strong> meltdown in USD, lower US nominal yields (think &lsquo;anchoring&rsquo; rates) and flattening UST curves.</strong></p> <p><strong>&gt;</strong> The <span style="text-decoration: underline;">implications of these &lsquo;perpetually easy&rsquo; US rates / Dollar conditions for equities continue to be clear</span>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p style="text-align: left;">1. Large institutional / passive inflows into equities &lsquo;buying the dip,&rsquo; as we now see <strong>new YTD highs in the cumulative NYSE market-on-close buy imbalances</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">2. <strong>More &lsquo;vol selling&rsquo; in the market as evidenced by large overwriting programs across multiple sectors in recent days,</strong> with clients selling options to collect premium in core long names on expectations for a placid market backdrop over next few months / predictable Fed @ June mtg</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">3. <strong>The ratio of &lsquo;Growth&rsquo; factor</strong> (&lsquo;secular&rsquo; stories with EPS / revenue growth and little policy- / rate- exposure) <strong>to &lsquo;Value&rsquo; </strong>(metrics including &lsquo;book or earnings to price&rsquo; / &lsquo;book value&rsquo;--largely cyclicals with rates- and policy- sensitivity) <strong>now sits at 17 year highs;</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">4. <strong>&lsquo;Quality&rsquo;</strong> (ROE, earnings stability, div growth stability) <strong>now massively outperforming &lsquo;Size&rsquo;</strong> (small cap, more cyclically-geared companies), with the ratio at highs last seen during the 1Q16 market and before that, 4Q11</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">5. <strong>&lsquo;Anti-Beta&rsquo; now the 2nd best performing US factor market-neutral strategy YTD on the aforementioned inability for rates to move higher </strong>(and investor preference for yield / &lsquo;low volatility&rsquo; of bond-like equities)</p> </blockquote> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>&lsquo;Growth : Value,&rsquo; &lsquo;Quality : Size&rsquo; and &lsquo;Anti-Beta&rsquo; market neutral are all expressions of &lsquo;defensive&rsquo; investor positioning as it relates to &lsquo;low&rsquo; / &lsquo;stable&rsquo; future expectations for the US economy&mdash;which corroborates with aforementioned flat curves and low nominals.</strong></span></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><em>Specifically as it relates to the ongoing defenestration of &lsquo;Value,&rsquo; we continue to see signs of market-neutral book unwinds in both &lsquo;energy&rsquo; and &lsquo;financials&rsquo; sectors where the &lsquo;tight stops&rsquo; model can&rsquo;t handle &lsquo;acute&rsquo; one-way melt-downs (alongside flailing stat-arb &lsquo;mean reversion strategies QTD).</em></p> <p style="text-align: left;">As I have stated since late March though&mdash;this incredible <strong>&lsquo;one-way crowding&rsquo; into &lsquo;Growth&rsquo; proxies </strong>(tech, consumer discretionary, biotech) corroborated by 13F&rsquo;s and FAANG / PANE / sector performance <strong>evidences a major market positioning asymmetry, as well as &lsquo;over-exposure&rsquo; to &lsquo;market&rsquo; factor risk </strong>(a.k.a. long books are very &lsquo;high beta&rsquo;) which could &lsquo;tip over&rsquo;.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">The largest market risk to me isn&rsquo;t thus a &lsquo;systemic&rsquo; or economic one; it is a &lsquo;systematic&rsquo; one (&lsquo;get it&rsquo;?)</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>This is essentially a &lsquo;pure Minsky&rsquo; backdrop, where due to &lsquo;epic&rsquo; lows in cross-asset realized vols (per the inability of monpol to sustain &lsquo;inflation expectations&rsquo;&mdash;and thus rates&mdash;higher), &lsquo;negative convexity&rsquo; / &lsquo;short gamma&rsquo; strategies continue to allocate large leverage / exposure onto traditionally &lsquo;risky&rsquo; assets to generate return</strong></em></span></p> <p style="text-align: left;">For example, CTA and risk-parity length in equities or EM bonds / FX; equity L/S gross- and net- leverage at cycle-highs; or &lsquo;vol risk premia&rsquo; funds profiting from CB liquidity; or more &lsquo;micro,&rsquo; market-neutral equities strats which have been required to load increasing amounts of leverage upon &lsquo;working&rsquo; factor strategies to amplify returns</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Classic &lsquo;pennies in front of a stream-roller&rsquo; / &lsquo;negative skew&rsquo; return profile - Taleb distribution:</strong> &ldquo;The statistical profile of an investment which normally provides a payoff of small positive returns, while carrying a small but significant risk of catastrophic losses.&rdquo;</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><span style="color:#ff0000;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>The problem is&hellip;.IT KEEPS WORKING, because market expectations for rates / curves / inflation expectations remain D.O.A., which perversely keeps the major global central banks &ldquo;reflexively easy&rdquo;&mdash;a.k.a. &ldquo;The Insanity Loop&rdquo;</strong></em></span></span></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><u><strong>Punchline:</strong></u> <em>we need sustained and regularly-occurring rate hikes to break the lazy-carry complacency, which in turn will allow for macro trading regime change.</em></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>STALL-SPEED&mdash;IS THE BEST NOW BEHIND US?</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_RBC1.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_RBC1.png" style="width: 601px; height: 377px;" /></a></p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>&lsquo;VALUE&rsquo; DESTROYED RELATIVE TO &lsquo;GROWTH&rsquo; AS PERPETUALLY &lsquo;EASY&rsquo; POLICY SINCE &rsquo;09 KEEPS RATES LOWER / CURVES FLATTER:</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_RBC2.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_RBC2.png" style="width: 600px; height: 386px;" /></a></p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>RATES THAT DON&rsquo;T RISE / CURVES THAT DON&rsquo;T STEEPEN = &lsquo;GOLDILOCKS&rsquo; FOR LEVERAGED-ALLOCATION / VOL-TARGETING / RISK-PARITY / &lsquo;CARRY&rsquo; STRATEGIES (% RETURN YTD):</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_RBC3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/23/20170523_RBC3.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 543px;" /></a></p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="319" height="125" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170523_RBC4.jpg?1495556245" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/rbc-welcome-insanity-loop#comments 13F Beta Book Value Business Central Banks China Convexity Economy European Central Bank Finance Financial markets Financial risk Futures contract Goldilocks Groundhog Day Inflation Investment Mathematical finance Mean Reversion Meltdown Money Negative Convexity US Federal Reserve Volatility Tue, 23 May 2017 17:30:31 +0000 Tyler Durden 596497 at http://www.zerohedge.com Kim Dotcom Disappoints: Offers Full Seth Rich Testimony But Only To Special Counsel Mueller http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/kim-dotcom <p>As promised over the weekend, Kim Dotcom has delivered his official 'statement' on the Seth Rich murder.&nbsp; Unfortunately, it's a bit light on the details and more of a teaser along with a promise to disclose full details of his relationship with Seth Rich to Special Counsel Mueller in return for safe passage to and from the United States.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SethRich?src=hash">#SethRich</a> was a hero<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SethRich?src=hash">#SethRich</a> changed history<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SethRich?src=hash">#SethRich</a> exposed the corrupt<br />Here is my statement &gt; <a href="https://t.co/ODCOqaA6Q1">https://t.co/ODCOqaA6Q1</a></p> <p>— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/867062608658022400">May 23, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Here is the full statement as posted to <a href="http://kim.com/">Kim Dotcom's website</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>I know that Seth Rich was involved in the DNC leak.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I know this because in late 2014 a person contacted me about helping me to start a branch of the Internet Party in the United States. He called himself Panda. I now know that Panda was Seth Rich.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Panda advised me that he was working on voter analytics tools and other technologies that the Internet Party may find helpful.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I communicated with Panda on a number of topics including corruption and the influence of corporate money in politics.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“He wanted to change that from the inside.”</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I was referring to what I knew when I did an interview with Bloomberg in New Zealand in May 2015. In that interview I hinted that Julian Assange and Wikileaks would release information about Hillary Clinton in the upcoming election.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Rich family has reached out to me to ask that I be sensitive to their loss in my public comments. That request is entirely reasonable.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>I have consulted with my lawyers. I accept that my full statement should be provided to the authorities and I am prepared to do that so that there can be a full investigation. </strong>My lawyers will speak with the authorities regarding the proper process.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>If my evidence is required to be given in the United States I would be prepared to do so if appropriate arrangements are made. I would need a guarantee from Special Counsel Mueller, on behalf of the United States, of safe passage from New Zealand to the United States and back.</strong> In the coming days we will be communicating with the appropriate authorities to make the necessary arrangements. In the meantime, I will make no further comment.</p> </blockquote> <p>Meanwhile, early reaction from the Twittersphere is disappointment:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">.<a href="https://twitter.com/KimDotcom">@KimDotCom</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SethRich?src=hash">#SethRich</a> ????</p> <p>A bit disingenuous to suggest evidence'd be revealed but here's hoping he'll have a good meet w US Investigators <a href="https://t.co/wWeHIYkNOc">pic.twitter.com/wWeHIYkNOc</a></p> <p>— Zach (@zachhaller) <a href="https://twitter.com/zachhaller/status/867065316718792704">May 23, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So which is it: legitimate concern regarding public disclosure of details surrounding a controversial murder investigation or self-aggrandizement and nothing more?</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>For those who missed it, here is some background on the lead up to today's Kim Dotcom announcement:</p> <p>Last week, <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/05/16/slain-dnc-staffer-had-contact-with-wikileaks-investigator-says.html">Fox News</a> dropped a bombshell report officially confirming, via anonymous FBI sources, what many had suspected for quite some time, that murdered DNC staffer Seth Rich was the WikiLeaks source for leaks which proved that the DNC was intentionally undermining the campaign of Bernie Sanders. In addition to exposing the corruption of the DNC, the leaks cost Debbie Wasserman Shcultz her job as Chairwoman.</p> <p>Of course, if it's true that WikiLeaks' emails came from a DNC insider it would end the "Russian hacking" narrative that has been perpetuated by Democrats and the mainstream media for the past several months.&nbsp; Moreover, it would corroborate the one confirmation that Julian Assange has offered regarding his source, namely that it was "not a state actor."</p> <p>Meanwhile, the plot thickened a little more over the weekend when Kim Dotcom confirmed via Twitter that he was working with Seth Rich to get leaked emails to WikiLeaks.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">I knew Seth Rich. I know he was the <a href="https://twitter.com/wikileaks">@Wikileaks</a> source. I was involved. <a href="https://t.co/MbGQteHhZM">https://t.co/MbGQteHhZM</a></p> <p>— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/865987139166552064">May 20, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Which was followed up by the following posts on 4Chan’s /pol/ subgroup that high-ranking current and former Democratic Party officials are terrified of the Seth Rich murder investigation.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“Anons, I work in D.C.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>I know for certain that the Seth Rich case has scared the shit out of certain high ranking current and former Democratic Party officials.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This is the reason why they have backed away from impeachment talk. They know the smoking gun is out there, and they’re terrified you will find it, because when you do it will bring the entire DNC, along with a couple of very big name politicians.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>It appears that certain DNC thugs were not thorough enough when it came time to cover their tracks. </strong>Podesta saying he wanted to “make an example of the leaker” is a huge smoking gun.”</p> </blockquote> <p>The post went on to claim that a <strong>"smoking gun in this case is out of the hands of the conspirators" which has resulted in near "open panic" in DC circles.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>“The behavior is near open panic.</strong> To even mention this name in D.C. Circles [sic] will bring you under automatic scrutiny. To even admit that you have knowledge of this story puts you in immediate danger.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>If there was no smoke there would be no fire. <strong>I have never, in my 20 years of working in D.C. Seen [sic] such a panicked reaction from anyone.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>I have strong reason to believe that the smoking gun in this case is out o [sic] the hands of the conspirators, and will be discovered by anon.</strong> I know for certain that Podesta is deeply concerned. He’s been receiving anonymous calls and emails from people saying they know the truth. Same with Hillary.”</p> </blockquote> <p>And here is the original tweet:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">An Anon working in DC says that he's seeing people in a panic like never before about <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SethRich?src=hash">#SethRich</a>.</p> <p>They know their about to be exposed. <a href="https://t.co/wn9FiJ8ZrV">pic.twitter.com/wn9FiJ8ZrV</a></p> <p>— /pol/ News Forever (@polNewsForever) <a href="https://twitter.com/polNewsForever/status/866282398811652097">May 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Meanwhile, Kim Dotcom has promised more information will be released on his interaction with Seth Rich by tomorrow.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">I'm meeting my legal team on Monday. I will issue a statement about <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SethRich?src=hash">#SethRich</a> on Tuesday. Please be patient. This needs to be done properly.</p> <p>— Kim Dotcom (@KimDotcom) <a href="https://twitter.com/KimDotcom/status/865989988554428416">May 20, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This raises several questions.&nbsp; First, if Kim Dotcom knew that Seth Rich was, in fact, the WikiLeaks source, <strong>why is he just now coming forward with such information</strong>?&nbsp; Second, while Seth Rich may explain the DNC leaks we still don't know who is responsible for the "Podesta Files" which we're certain will continue to be attributed to "Russian hackers."</p> <p>Which leads to the most improtant queistion of all: is this all just another fake news diversion, or is there more to the Seth Rich murder?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="577" height="348" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017.05.22%20-%20Seth%20Rich_0.JPG?1495558281" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/kim-dotcom#comments Activism American politics Bernie Sanders Computing Conservation Corruption Debbie Wasserman Schultz Democratic National Committee Democratic National Committee email leak Democratic Party Email hacking Espionage FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation Fox News Giant panda Government Internet Party Julian Assange KIM Kim Dotcom Murder of Seth Rich National security New Zealand Politics Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections Species Testimony Twitter Twitter WikiLeaks Tue, 23 May 2017 17:16:48 +0000 Tyler Durden 596502 at http://www.zerohedge.com Stronger Than Expected 2 Year Auction, Thanks To Highest Yield Since October 2008 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/stronger-expected-2-year-auction-thanks-highest-yield-october-2008 <p>After today's very ugly 4-Week Bill auction, moments ago the bond market redeemed itself somewhat when it sold $29.1BN (including $3.1BN in SOMA) in 2 Year paper. The high yield of 1.316% stopped through the 1.322% When Issued by 0.6 bps, which was the biggest "stop through" since last August. Perhaps the yield was a factor: <strong>at just below 1.32%, this was the highest auction stop on 2Y paper since October 2008. </strong></p> <p>The internals also came in strong, with the Bid to Cover rising from 2.853 to 2.904, the highest since May 2016, with total bids of $78.6BN for $29.1BN in notes sold. </p> <p>Indirects took down 57.15%, below the 58.9% in April, but above the 46.6% average of the last six auction. Directs took down 12.4%, in line with recent history, leaving 30.45% to Dealers, below the 41% 6MMA.</p> <p>In summary, a strong auction which the bond market was desperately in need of following some very disappointing Bill and Coupon auctions over the past few weeks.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/2Y%20auction%20stronger.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/2Y%20auction%20stronger_0.jpg" width="500" height="297" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1652" height="982" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2Y%20auction%20stronger.jpg?1495559619" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/stronger-expected-2-year-auction-thanks-highest-yield-october-2008#comments Auction Auction theory Auctions Bid-to-cover ratio Bond Bond Business Coupon Economy Finance Fixed income analysis Fixed income market High Yield Market economics) Yield Tue, 23 May 2017 17:13:57 +0000 Tyler Durden 596504 at http://www.zerohedge.com UK Police Confirm Manchester Suicide Bomber Was Salman Abedi, Son Of Libyan Refugees http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/uk-police-confirm-manchester-suicide-bomber-was-22-year-old-salman-abedi <p>Confirming what <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/cbs-reports-suspected-manchester-attacker-23-year-old-salman-abedi">CBS reported </a>earlier today, UK police and Whitehall officials said that the suspected bomber who killed at least 22 people is 22-year-old Salman Abedi (or Salman Ramadan Abedi) from a family of Libyan origin. Abedi had not been identified by the coroner so no further details would be given, Greater Manchester Police said.</p> <p>Born in Manchester in 1994, the second youngest of four children his parents were Libyan refugees who came to the UK to escape the Gaddafi regime. His parents were both born in Libya but appear to have emigrated to London before moving to the Fallowfield area of south Manchester where they have lived for at least ten years according <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/23/salman-abedi-named-manchester-suicide-bomber-know/">to the Telegraph</a>.</p> <p>They had three sons in total and a daughter, who is now 18-years-old. Abedi grew up in the Whalley Range area, just yards from the local girl's high school, which hit the headlines in 2015 when twins and grade A pupils, Zahra and Salma Halane, who were both aspiring medical students, left their homes and moved to Isil controlled Syria.</p> <p>There were unconfirmed reports in Manchester that the whole family apart from the two elder sons recently returned to Libya. </p> <p>Abedi was named by Greater Manchester Chief Constable Ian Hopkins on Tuesday.</p> <p>Manchester Police Chief Hopkins said: “Our priority, along with the police counter terrorism network and our security partners, is to continue to establish whether he was acting alone or working as part of a wider network.”</p> <blockquote class="twitter-video"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Authorities say they are trying to determine if suspect Salman Abedi was "acting alone or working as part of a wider network." <a href="https://t.co/NhcrpxeyOZ">pic.twitter.com/NhcrpxeyOZ</a></p> <p>— CBS News (@CBSNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/867055125780738049">May 23, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>According <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/59ee15dc-3fc5-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58">to the FT, </a>police launched raids across the south of Manchester on Tuesday as authorities tried to establish whether the suicide bomber who killed at least 22 people, including children, in the terrorist attack on a concert arena was working alone.&nbsp; The hunt has initially focused on three adjoining neighbourhoods in the city’s southern districts. Greater Manchester Police said they had raided two addresses in Whalley Range and Fallowfield, where they also carried out a controlled explosion. Forensic investigators could be seen at one of the addresses searching for clues.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Armed officers also arrested a 23-year-old man in connection with the attack, swooping on the suspect outside a Morrison’s supermarket in nearby Chorlton. It is unclear whether the arrest was related to either of the raids.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>All three areas are ethnically diverse and popular places to live for students. Manchester is the biggest university city in the UK outside of London. </p> </blockquote> <p>Earlier on Tuesday, Isis claimed responsibility for the attack, although the jihadi group has in the past taken credit for terror incidents that were later found to be unconnected. Dan Coats, the US director of national intelligence, said Isis’s role had yet to be confirmed, adding: “They claim responsibility for virtually every attack.”</p> <p>UK Police said the attacker died in the explosion, which left 59 people in hospital with injuries. The device, which detonated just after 10.30pm on Monday, <strong>appeared to have been packed with metal objects to maximise its lethality. </strong>Witnesses at the scene described finding nuts and bolts on the floor near the blast.</p> <p>Another priority noted by the police will be to establish whether any further linked attacks or copycat incidents are planned. It is likely that the bomber's communications will form a significant part of the inquiry, while investigators will also be checking if he was known to authorities in any way.</p> <p>One area of focus will be examining the remnants of the device used in the attack as officers work to establish whether the perpetrator built it himself or had help. As well as seeking to identify any potential accomplices in Britain, authorities will also be looking into the possibility of any link to international groups. In the first hours after an attack on this scale investigators were sifting through a number of theories as they work to settle on the most likely lines of inquiry.</p> <p>Commentators also pointed out that the Manchester attack took place on the fourth anniversary of the killing of Fusilier Lee Rigby in Woolwich, south-east London. Chris Phillips, the former head of the National Counter Terrorism Security Office, told BBC Radio Four's Today programme: "That may be significant as well." </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="900" height="501" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/london%20police.jpg?1495558013" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-23/uk-police-confirm-manchester-suicide-bomber-was-22-year-old-salman-abedi#comments Abidi BBC England Fallowfield Geography of Africa Geography of England Greater Manchester Greater Manchester Police Greater Manchester Police headlines Libya Local government in England Local government in the United Kingdom Manchester Manchester police National Counter Terrorism Security Office national intelligence Twitter Twitter UK police War Tue, 23 May 2017 16:47:13 +0000 Tyler Durden 596501 at http://www.zerohedge.com