http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/wp-content/plugins/uBillboard/%20%20liker.profile_URL%20%20 en NWS Declares "Extremely Dangerous Situation" After Puerto Rico Dam Fails http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/puerto-rico-dam-fails-causing-more-flash-flooding-devastated-island <p>With electricity and cell phone service still offline across most of hurricane-damaged island, <a href="http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/Dam-Failing-Puerto-Rico-Hurricane-Maria-446870113.html">NBC </a>reports that a dam in northwest Puerto Rico has failed, causing even more flash flooding and prompting emergency evacuations.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/PR%20dam%20failure.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/PR%20dam%20failure_0.jpg" style="width: 500px; height: 258px;" /></a></p> <p>Guajataca Dam operators said it failed at 2:10 pm ET, prompting the NWS to issue a flash flood emergency warning for Isabela and Quebradillas municipalities.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/2017-09-22.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/2017-09-22_0.png" style="width: 500px; height: 295px;" /></a></p> <p>&quot;This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Busses are currently evacuating people from the area as quickly as they can,&quot; NWS San Juan said.</p> <p>A warning was also issued for residents living in areas surrounding the Guajataca River who, according to NEW San Juan &quot;should evacuate NOW&quot; as their lives are in danger.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p dir="ltr" lang="es">215PM FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for A Dam Failure in Isabela Municipality y Quebradillas Municipality in Puerto Rico... <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/prwx?src=hash">#prwx</a> <a href="https://t.co/L3utOjxspR">pic.twitter.com/L3utOjxspR</a></p> <p>&mdash; NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/911294241460105218">September 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">At 210 PM, dam operators reported the Guajataca Dam is failing causing flash flooding downstream on the Rio Guajataca. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PRWX?src=hash">#PRWX</a></p> <p>&mdash; NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/911294779627057152">September 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. Busses are currently evacuating people from the area as quickly as they can <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/prwx?src=hash">#prwx</a></p> <p>&mdash; NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/911294925949554698">September 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">All Areas surrounding the Guajataca River should evacuate NOW. Their lives are in DANGER! Please SHARE! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/prwx?src=hash">#prwx</a></p> <p>&mdash; NWS San Juan (@NWSSanJuan) <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/911318089861562368">September 22, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p>According to federal reservoir data, the lake behind the dam, Lago de Guajataca, rose more than three feet between Tuesday and Wednesday, when the storm was still directly over the island. More recent data were unavailable.</p> <p>More than 95% of Puerto Rico&rsquo;s wireless cell sites are currently out of service, according to the FCC. That is worse than the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, which knocked out 56% of the island&rsquo;s wireless network. Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Brock Long said restoring electricity to the island &ldquo;could take weeks or many, many months.&rdquo;<br />&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="512" height="302" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017-09-22.png?1506111679" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/puerto-rico-dam-fails-causing-more-flash-flooding-devastated-island#comments Aguadilla–Isabela–San Sebastián metropolitan area cellular telephone Disaster Environment Federal Communications Commission Federal Emergency Management Agency flash Geography of Puerto Rico Guajataca Guajataca Lake Guajataca Tunnel Isabela, Puerto Rico NBC northwest Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Quebradillas, Puerto Rico Twitter Twitter Weather Fri, 22 Sep 2017 20:30:20 +0000 Tyler Durden 604018 at http://www.zerohedge.com 5.7 Magnitude Earthquake Hits Off North California Coast http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/57-magnitude-earthquake-hits-north-california-coast <p>A major, M5.7 earthquake has struck off the coast of Northern California, just days after a devastating M7.1 quake hit Mexico, resulting in hundreds dead and at least 50 buildings collapsed. The initial quake was quickly followed by a second one coming in at a magnitude of 5.6, which hit closer to shore, the USGS said.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/n%20cali%20quake%206.8.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/n%20cali%20quake%206.8_0.jpg" width="500" height="275" /></a></p> <p>While the quake was luckily too far offshore to cause any damage, the <a href="http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/state/california/article174714981.html">Sacramento Bee </a>writes that after Tuesday’s devastating earthquake in Mexico and the following smaller quakes that shook parts of California, "the West Coast is bracing for the worst."</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Time spoke to experts who pointed out that Southern California, Los Angeles and San Francisco were the most at-risk areas in the country for the next destructive quake. It’s been 160 years since the magnitude 7.9 earthquake near the San Andreas Fault, meaning a lot of pressure has built up over the years.</p> </blockquote> <p>The Bee writes that multiple smaller earthquakes have been reported throughout the state as Mexico continues to recover and rescue victims from Tuesday’s disaster, and today's "larger" quake appears to have been a culmination of the Mexico aftermath.&nbsp; A number of earthquakes were reported in the Bay Area on Wednesday, including one measuring magnitude 2.5 near San Jose, according to NBC Bay Area.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>On the central coast, a magnitude 3.2 quake hit San Juan Bautista on Wednesday morning, and a magnitude 2.8 earthquake rumbled between Gilroy and Morgan Hill about 10 a.m. Thursday, television station KSBW-8 reported. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Stronger earthquakes were reported in Northern California, with a magnitude 3.8 earthquake reported in Shasta County and a 3.0 in Humboldt County.</p> </blockquote> <p>Still, John Bellini, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey, told SFGate the smaller quakes don’t necessarily mean the “big one” is in the near future. “It looks like normal activity,” Bellini said. “They’re all over the place. It’s not unusual.”</p> <p>Increased seismic activity doesn’t typically signal an impending larger seismic event, he said. </p> <p>“We can’t predict or forecast earthquakes,” Bellini said. “Sometimes before a large earthquake you’ll have a foreshock or two. But we don’t know they’re foreshocks until the big one happens.”</p> <p>Which, of course, is why California residents have been especially on edge in recent days. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="948" height="521" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/n%20cali%20quake%206.8.jpg?1506111051" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/57-magnitude-earthquake-hits-north-california-coast#comments Astronomy Baja California earthquake central coast Disaster Earthquake Environment Mechanics Mexico Miyagi earthquake NBC Northern California Planetary science Quake Seismology Southern California West Coast Fri, 22 Sep 2017 20:15:03 +0000 Tyler Durden 604019 at http://www.zerohedge.com VIXtermination Sparks Buying-Panic In Stocks As Yield Curve Crashes To 10 Year Lows http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/vixtermination-sparks-buying-panic-stocks-yield-curve-crashes-10-year-lows <p>A chaotic week in some markets...</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zDAmPIq29ro" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>But only FX sees through the bullshit...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod8.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod8_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 313px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It was a week of superlatives...</p> <p><strong>Trump&#39;s best week of the year</strong>...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_trump1.jpg"><img height="82" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_trump1_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The<strong> Dollar Index just completed its best 2-week rally since December</strong>...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod6.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod6_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 314px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The <strong>Treasury Curve&#39;s biggest 2-week-flattening since December</strong>...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod4.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod4_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 303px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>10... year... flats...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod17.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod17_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 304px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And as the curve collapse, <strong>Financials had their best 2-week rally since December</strong>...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod5.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod5_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This week was <strong>Apple&#39;s worst post-product-launch week in over 7 years </strong>and worst week since April 2016 (AAPL closed below its 100DMA for the first time since July)</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Trannies (up 6 in a row) and Small Caps soared this week as Nasdaq ended the week in the red...S&amp;P was panic-bid into the close...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod14.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod14_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 371px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>VIX was hammered lower to get the S&amp;P back above 2500...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod12.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod12_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 506px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As it has all week...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod11.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod11_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 279px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Financials were the biggest gainers on the week...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod13.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod13_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 311px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>FANG Stocks ended the week unchanged</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod9.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod9_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 306px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>McCain&#39;s &quot;No&quot; sparked some exuberance in Managed Care stocks today...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 311px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Notably &quot;Most Shorted&quot; stocks fell for the first week in the last 6...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod7.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod7_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 318px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Treasury yields were up across the curve this week but as the folowing chart shows, there was a dramatic flattening at the long end...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod3_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 311px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>2Y Yields rose their highest since Oct 2008...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod10.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod10_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But no matter the collapse of the curve to its flattest since 2007, bank stocks were bid...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_rty2.jpg"><img height="315" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_rty2_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Gold and Silver fell for the second week in a row (as the dollar rallied)...Gold closed right at $1300 and Silver at $17 (higher on the day)</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod15.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod15_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 363px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Copper fell for the 3rd week in a row - biggest drop since May 2016...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod16.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_eod16_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 363px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>WTI hovered around $50 all week...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_oil.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_oil_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>oh and Small Caps hit a new record high... because fun-durr-mentals!!!!</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_rty.jpg"><img height="360" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_rty_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1417" height="152" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170922_eod.jpg?1506109794" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/vixtermination-sparks-buying-panic-stocks-yield-curve-crashes-10-year-lows#comments Across the Curve Apple Business Copper Mathematical finance NASDAQ S&P Technical analysis VIX Yield Curve Fri, 22 Sep 2017 20:04:13 +0000 Tyler Durden 604017 at http://www.zerohedge.com Mapping The World's 200-Plus Unicorns http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/mapping-worlds-200-plus-unicorns <p>Today&rsquo;s infographic comes to us from cost information site&nbsp;<a href="https://howmuch.net/articles/the-worlds-unicorn-companies-2017">HowMuch.net</a>, and it shows the hundreds of unicorns around the world. <strong>The special &ldquo;unicorn&rdquo; moniker, of course, is reserved for privately-held startups that reach valuations of a billion dollars or more.</strong></p> <p>In this map, <strong>the startups are plotted plotted based on their country of origin, </strong>and not their physical geographic location (such as a specific city or state). Further, companies are organized also based on color, which represents the spectrum of sectors that these startups span across.</p> <div style="clear: both;"><em><a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-200-unicorns-map/"><img src="http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/unicorn-world-map.jpg" style="border: 0px none;" width="600" /></a></em></div> <div><em>Courtesy of: <a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com">Visual Capitalist</a></em></div> <h2><span style="text-decoration: underline;">THE MOST VALUABLE STARTUPS</span></h2> <p>As Visual Capitalist&#39;s Jeff Desjardins notes, today, there are 214 unicorns worth a collective $744 billion &ndash;<strong> but that dollar value is distributed very unequally.</strong></p> <p>According to research firm&nbsp;<a href="https://www.cbinsights.com/research-unicorn-companies">CB Insights</a>, the top 10 unicorns alone are worth $303.3 billion (41%), while the &ldquo;bottom&rdquo; 204 make up the remaining $440.7 billion (59%) of the pool.</p> <p><em><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_unicorn.jpg"><img height="451" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_unicorn_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h2><span style="text-decoration: underline;">KNOWN UNKNOWNS</span></h2> <p>You&rsquo;re probably very familiar with companies like Uber and Airbnb, but almost half of the companies on the Top 10 list are from China.</p> <p><strong><em>What do these companies do that make them more valuable than big names like Dropbox, Stripe, or Spotify?</em></strong></p> <p><u><strong>Didi Chuxing &ndash; $50 billion</strong></u><br />Didi Chuxing is China&rsquo;s most popular ride-sharing service, providing transportation to 400 million users across over 400 cities in China. In 2016, they even acquired Uber&rsquo;s China division, winning an epic &ldquo;battle&rdquo; between these two transportation startup giants.</p> <p><u><strong>Xiaomi &ndash; $46 billion</strong></u><br />Xiaomi designs and sells consumer electronics products, and is currently the world&rsquo;s fifth-largest smartphone maker. (We talked about how Xiaomi and other companies in China are shaking up global the smartphone market&nbsp;<a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/chinese-smartphone-market/">here</a>.)</p> <p><u><strong>Lu.com &ndash; $18.5 billion</strong></u><br />Lufax is the second-largest P2P lender in China, and is partially owned by Ping An Insurance Group. The company plans to aggressively target other areas of&nbsp;<a href="http://www.visualcapitalist.com/27-fintech-unicorns-where-born/">fintech</a>, including wealth, credit, payments, insurance, and regulatory tech.</p> <p><u><strong>China Internet Plus Holding &ndash; $18 billion</strong></u><br />Formed by a merger in 2015, and now doing business as Meituan-Dianping, this company has the world&rsquo;s largest online and on-demand delivery platform, recently reaching up to 10 million daily orders and deliveries. Think of it as a combination Groupon and Yelp.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1074" height="474" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170922_unicorn1.jpg?1506091584" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/mapping-worlds-200-plus-unicorns#comments Business Business China Computing Didi Chuxing Economy of China Groupon Lufax Meituan.com Neologisms Online service providers smartphone Unicorn Valuation Xiaomi Fri, 22 Sep 2017 19:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 603987 at http://www.zerohedge.com New York Fed Calculates Inflation Is Running Hottest Since 2007 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/new-york-fed-calculates-inflation-running-hottest-2007 <p>As if inflation wasn't "<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-20/yellen-does-not-fully-understand-inflation-so-here-it-explained-just-one-chart">mysterious" enough to the Fed </a>already, <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge">today the New York Fed </a>joined the <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject.aspx">Atlanta Fed </a>first in releasing its own measure to track underlying inflation called, simply, the Underlying Inflation Gauge. What is notable is that this latest inflation tracker shows prices <strong>behaving quite differently from traditional indexes this year. </strong></p> <p>According to the UIG's August measure, <strong>broad inflation came in at a red hot 2.74%, the highest since November 2007, according to historical data from the Fed. </strong>That compares with just 1.9% annual inflation according to the Labor Department’s CPI and an even more paltry 1.4% as measured by the preferred PCE gauge of Fed policy makers, which matched the lowest since September 2016.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/inflation%20index%20ny%20fed.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/inflation%20index%20ny%20fed.jpg" width="501" height="263" /></a></p> <p>This is <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/underlying-inflation-gauge">what the latest reading showed</a>:</p> <ul> <li><strong>The UIG estimated on the “full data set” increased from a revised 2.64% in July to 2.74% in August.</strong></li> <li>The “prices-only” measure increased from a revised 2.09% in July to 2.17% in August.</li> <li>The August CPI showed a further pick up in inflation from June. In response to the firming of CPI inflation, both UIG measures displayed a rise in trend inflation.</li> <li>he UIG measures currently estimate trend CPI inflation to be in the 2.2% to 2.7% range, with both registering above the actual twelve-month change in the CPI.</li> </ul> <p>Why the gap? According to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-22/what-slowdown-new-fed-gauge-shows-fastest-inflation-since-2007">Bloomberg</a>, the <strong>full data UIG incorporates dozens of additional variables outside of prices, including the unemployment rate, stock prices, bond yields and purchasing managers’ indexes. </strong>Furthermore, if Dudley is right, and there is structural disinflation going on, <strong>then the UIG would be much higher using a ‘traditional’ supply curve. </strong>Here, as Citi cynically notes, "structural disinflation is far from permanent, as the Mayor of London’s latest regulatory action illustrated very clearly.&nbsp; Anti-trust or other regulatory measures can end the new supply paradigm at any time.<strong>"</strong></p> <p>Additionally, a lot of the disinflation in the New Economy may have been a function of high G10 unemployment, and urbanization in China: both of which have now ended as drivers of disinflation.&nbsp; <strong><br /></strong></p> <p>While the second, “prices-only” version of the UIG is derived from CPI data, that measure still rose a solid 2.2% in August. The New York Fed says the UIG “has shown more accurate forecasts of inflation compared with core inflation measures,” and the two UIG measures indicate that “trend CPI inflation” is currently in a range of 2.2 percent to 2.7 percent.</p> <p>Meanwhile, the annualized 1 month Atlanta Fed Sticky Price CPI <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice.aspx">surged to 3.1% in August</a>.</p> <p>Still, when one central bank now has no less than three different inflation metrics to contend with, and base its decisions on, all of which show vastly different numbers, we can see why Yellen would be "confused", and why as we <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-06/look-inside-basket-behind-markets-big-puzzle">said two weeks ago</a>, what the Fed should be doing is figuring out why and how it is calculating inflation incorrectly before continuing to blow the world's biggest asset bubble. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/PCE%20components.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/PCE%20components_0.jpg" width="500" height="400" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="600" height="315" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/inflation%20index%20ny%20fed.jpg?1506109629" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/new-york-fed-calculates-inflation-running-hottest-2007#comments Atlanta Fed Bond Business China Consumer price index Core inflation CPI Department of Labor Disinflation Economics Economy Inflation Macroeconomics Monetary economics Monetary inflation new economy New York Fed New York Fed Nominal rigidity Price indices Uig Unemployment US Federal Reserve Fri, 22 Sep 2017 19:48:38 +0000 Tyler Durden 604015 at http://www.zerohedge.com Trump's "Best Week Since Inauguration" Sends Approval Rating To 4-Month Highs http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/trumps-best-week-inauguration-sends-approval-rating-4-month-highs <p>This was President<strong> Trump&#39;s best week since inauguration</strong> as his job approval rating spiked most since the first week of Feb..</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_trump1.jpg"><img height="82" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_trump1_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>A week of record-breaking hurricanes, paradigm-shattering comments at The UN, and record high stock prices has <strong>pushed President Trump&#39;s approval rating to its highest since mid-May.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_trump.jpg"><img height="312" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_trump_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>One thing is for sure, <strong>President Trump seems capable of controlling the media narrative</strong> (for better or for worse)... <a href="https://www.axios.com/the-insane-news-cycle-of-trumps-presidency-in-one-chart-2487913807.html"><em>(via Axios)</em></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_trump2.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_trump2_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 746px;" /></a></p> <p>The study shows that while Trump&#39;s presidency has been action-packed, the public&#39;s attention span doesn&#39;t seem to last for long.</p> <p>However, one group of people does seem to pay attention longer - FX traders...</p> <p><strong>With a one-month lag, the dollar index appears to be tracking President Trump&#39;s approval rating rather well...</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_trump1_1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170921_trump1_1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 315px;" /></a></p> <p>So is the dollar due for the rally to continue?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="965" height="506" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170921_trump1.jpg?1506101446" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/trumps-best-week-inauguration-sends-approval-rating-4-month-highs#comments American people of German descent Business Climate change skepticism and denial Donald Trump Politics of the United States The Apprentice United Nations United States WWE Hall of Fame Fri, 22 Sep 2017 19:35:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 604006 at http://www.zerohedge.com "Basically Destroyed" - Puerto Rico's Back In The 18th Century http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/basically-destroyed-puerto-ricos-back-18th-century <p><a href="http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/in-the-murk/"><em>Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,</em></a></p> <p><strong>Welcome to America&rsquo;s first experiment in the <em>World Made By Hand</em> lifestyle. Where else is it going? Watch closely.</strong></p> <p><strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_pr.JPG"><img height="264" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_pr_0.JPG" width="600" /></a></strong></p> <p>Ricardo Ramos, the director of the beleaguered, government-owned Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority, told CNN Thursday that <strong>the island&rsquo;s power infrastructure had been basically &ldquo;destroyed&rdquo; and will take months to come back.</strong></p> <p><strong>&ldquo;Basically destroyed.&rdquo; </strong>That&rsquo;s about as basic as it gets civilization-wise.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_pr1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/18/20170922_pr1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 341px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>Residents, Mr. Ramos said, would need to change the way they cook and cool off. </strong>For entertainment, old-school would be the best approach, he said.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s a good time for dads to buy a ball and a glove and change the way you entertain your children.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>Meaning, I guess, no more playing <em>Resident Evil 7: Biohazard</em> on-screen because you&rsquo;ll be living it - though one wonders where will the money come from to buy the ball and glove? Few Puerto Ricans will be going to work with the power off. <strong>And the island&rsquo;s public finances were in disarray sufficient to drive it into federal court last May</strong> to set in motion a legal receivership that amounted to bankruptcy in all but name.</p> <p>The <em>commonwealth</em>, a US territory, was in default for $74 billion in bonded debt, plus another $49 billion in unfunded pension obligations.</p> <p><strong>So, Puerto Rico already faced a crisis pre-Hurricane Maria, with its dodgy electric grid and crumbling infrastructure: roads, bridges, water and sewage systems.</strong></p> <p>Bankruptcy put it in a poor position to issue new bonds for public works which are generally paid for with public borrowing.</p> <p><em><strong>Who, exactly, would buy the new bonds? I hear readers whispering, &ldquo;the Federal Reserve.&rdquo;</strong></em></p> <p>Which is a pretty good clue to understanding the circle-jerk that American finance has become.</p> <p><strong>Some sort of bailout is unavoidable, though President Trump tweeted &ldquo;No Bailout for Puerto Rico&rdquo; after the May bankruptcy proceeding.</strong> Things have changed and the shelf-life of Trumpian tweets is famously brief. But the crisis may actually strain the ability of the federal government to pretend it can cover the cost of every calamity that strikes the nation &mdash; at least not without casting doubt on the soundness of the dollar. And not a few bonafide states are also whirling around the bankruptcy drain: Illinois, Connecticut, New Jersey, Kentucky.</p> <p><strong>Constitutionally states are not permitted to declare bankruptcy, though counties and municipalities can.</strong> Congress would have to change the law to allow it. But states can default on their bonds and other obligations. Surely there would be some kind of fiscal and political hell to pay if they go that route.</p> <p>Nobody really knows what might happen in a state as big and complex as Illinois, which has been paying its way for decades by borrowing from the future. <strong><u>Suddenly, the future is here and nobody has a plan for it.</u></strong></p> <p><strong>The case for the federal government is not so different.</strong></p> <p>It, too, only manages to pay its bondholders via bookkeeping hocuspocus, and its colossal unfunded obligations for social security and Medicare make Illinois&rsquo; predicament look like a skipped car payment.</p> <p>In the meantime - and it looks like it&rsquo;s going to be a long meantime - <strong>Puerto Rico is back in the 18<sup>th</sup> Century, minus the practical skills and simpler furnishings for living that way of life, and with a population many times beyond the carrying capacity of the island in that era. </strong></p> <p>For instance, how many houses get their water from cisterns designed to catch rain runoff? How many communities across the island are walkable? (It looks like the gas stations will be down for quite a while.) I&rsquo;ve been there and much of the island is as suburbanized as New Jersey &mdash; thanks to the desire to be up-to-date with the mainland, and the willingness of officials to make it look like that.</p> <p><strong>We&rsquo;re only two days past the Hurricane Maria&rsquo;s direct hit on Puerto Rico and there is no phone communication across the island, so we barely know what has happened.</strong> We&rsquo;re weeks past Hurricanes Irma and Harvey, and news of the consequences from those two events has strangely fallen out of the news media.</p> <p><strong><em>Where have the people gone who lost everything? The news blackout is as complete and strange as the darkness that has descended on Puerto Rico.</em></strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="914" height="520" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170922_pr1.jpg?1506105166" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/basically-destroyed-puerto-ricos-back-18th-century#comments Americas Congress default Economy of Puerto Rico federal government Federal Reserve Illinois Medicare Medicare New Spain Puerto Rican government-debt crisis Puerto Ricans Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority Spanish colonization of the Americas Spanish Empire US Federal Reserve Fri, 22 Sep 2017 19:20:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 604011 at http://www.zerohedge.com California Residents Stunned As Ominous "End-Of-World Prediction" Takes Over TV Broadcasts http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/california-residents-stunned-ominous-end-world-prediction-takes-over-tv-broadcasts <p>Residents of Southern California were stunned yesterday morning when their avocado toast breakfast was suddenly interrupted by an ominous "end-of-world prediction" that took over their TV's, interrupting their normal programming for a full minute.&nbsp; Among other things, the broadcast predicted that "extremely violent times will come."</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>“Realize this, that in the last day extremely violent times will come."</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"The term means hard.&nbsp; Harsh. Hard to deal with.&nbsp; Vicious. Dangerous. Menacing."</p> </blockquote> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ERoo4_xX478" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Not surprisingly, the triggered Californians flooded social media with clips of the warning and their personal horror stories which were summarized by <a href="http://www.ocregister.com/2017/09/21/end-of-world-prediction-interrupts-tv-broadcasts-in-orange-county/">The Orange County Register</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Erin Mireles of Diamond Bar was watching the Bravo channel on Spectrum’s cable system when her show was interrupted by the alert.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“I was definitely startled, ’cause the volume increased exponentially,”</strong> she said. <strong>“I wasn’t alarmed in the sense of thinking something was wrong, ’cause I assumed it was some sort of hack. My channel changed back to Bravo after a couple minutes.”</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Stacy Laflamme of Lake Forest said she was watching the HGTV channel via Cox Communications about 11:05 a.m. when suddenly an emergency alert flashed across her screen followed by a voice.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“It almost sounded like Hitler talking,”</strong> she said. <strong>“It sounded like a radio broadcast coming through the television.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, the "Emergency Alert" was made all the more alarming given that<strong> Christian numerologist David Meade has made news throughout this week with his own prediction that the end of the world will come tomorrow</strong>...so please adjust your party plans for tonight accordingly.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>According to Christian numerologist David Meade, verses in Luke 21:25 to 26 signify that recent events, such as the recent solar eclipse and Hurricane Harvey, portend the apocalypse.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The verses read:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“25: There will be signs in the sun, moon and stars. On the earth, nations will be in anguish and perplexity at the roaring and tossing of the sea. People will faint from terror, apprehensive of what is coming on the world, for the heavenly bodies will be shaken.'</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"'26: Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.'</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Saturday's date, Sept. 23 was pinpointed using codes from the Bible, as well as a "date marker" in the pyramids of Giza in Egypt. </strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Unfortunately, in the end, the whole thing was just a technical glitch that resulted in a local radio broadcast being sent out over television stations during what should have been a regular test of the emergency alert system.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>The problem occurred because of one or more radio stations conducting an emergency test, Joe Camero, a spokesman for Cox, said Thursday.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Cable systems pick up such alerts, and viewers should have seen just a typical emergency-broadcast test.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“With these tests, an emergency tone is sent out to initiate the test,”&nbsp; Camero said. “After the tone is transmitted, another tone is sent to end the message. It appears that the radio station (or stations) did not transmit the end tone to complete the test.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Then the broadcast picked up some audio feed that bled into the alert.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Camero said Cox technicians shut down the emergency test as soon as they became aware of the problem.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“We don’t want to alarm anyone with any false emergency alerts,” he said.</p> </blockquote> <p>That said, you should probably still plan to party tonight like the end of the world will come tomorrow...just in case.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="771" height="433" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017.09.22%20-%20End%20Times.JPG?1506089658" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/california-residents-stunned-ominous-end-world-prediction-takes-over-tv-broadcasts#comments Alert messaging Civil defense Emergency Alert System Emergency communication system Emergency management Environment Southern California United States civil defense Warning systems Fri, 22 Sep 2017 19:05:55 +0000 Tyler Durden 603986 at http://www.zerohedge.com Pat Buchanan: "America Has No Divinely-Mandated Mission To Democratize Mankind" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/buchanan-america-has-no-divinely-mandated-mission-democratize-mankind <p><a href="http://buchanan.org/blog/trump-american-gaullist-127678"><em>Authored by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,</em></a></p> <p>If a U.S. president calls an adversary &ldquo;Rocket Man &hellip; on a mission to suicide,&rdquo; and warns his nation may be &ldquo;totally destroyed,&rdquo; <strong>other ideas in his speech will tend to get lost.</strong></p> <p><strong>Which is unfortunate.</strong></p> <p>For <u><strong>buried in Donald Trump&rsquo;s address is a clarion call to reject transnationalism and to re-embrace a world of sovereign nation-states that cherish their independence and unique identities.</strong></u></p> <p>Western man has engaged in this great quarrel since Woodrow Wilson declared America would fight in the Great War, not for any selfish interests, but <strong><em>&ldquo;to make the world safe for democracy.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>Our imperialist allies, Britain, France, Russia, Japan, regarded this as self-righteous claptrap and proceeded to rip apart Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Ottoman Empire and to feast on their colonies.</p> <p>After World War II, Jean Monnet, father of the EU, wanted Europe&rsquo;s nations to yield up their sovereignty and form a federal union like the USA.</p> <p>Europe&rsquo;s nations would slowly sink and dissolve in a single polity that would mark a giant leap forward toward world government - Alfred, Lord Tennyson&rsquo;s &ldquo;Parliament of man, the Federation of the world.&rdquo;</p> <p><strong>Charles De Gaulle lead the resistance, calling for &ldquo;a Europe of nation-states from the Atlantic to the Urals.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>For 50 years, the Gaullists were in constant retreat. The Germans especially, given their past, seemed desirous of losing their national identity and disappearing inside the new Europe.</p> <p><strong>Today, the Gaullist vision is ascendant.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;We do not expect diverse countries to share the same cultures, traditions, or even systems of government,&rdquo; said Trump at the U.N.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;Strong sovereign nations let diverse countries with different values, different cultures, and different dreams not just coexist, but work side by side on the basis of mutual respect. &hellip;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;In America, we do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone, but rather to let it shine as an example for everyone to watch.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p><u><em><strong>Translation: We Americans have created something unique in history. But we do not assert that we should serve as a model for mankind. Among the 190 nations, others have evolved in different ways from diverse cultures, histories, traditions. We may reject their values but we have no God-given right to impose ours upon them.</strong></em></u></p> <p>It is difficult to reconcile Trump&rsquo;s belief in self-determination with a National Endowment for Democracy whose reason for being is to interfere in the politics of other nations to make them more like us.</p> <p><strong>Trump&rsquo;s idea of patriotism has deep roots in America&rsquo;s past.</strong></p> <p>After the uprisings of 1848 against the royal houses of Europe failed, Lajos Kossuth came to seek support for the cause of Hungarian democracy. He was wildly welcomed and hailed by Secretary of State Daniel Webster.</p> <p>But Henry Clay, more true to the principles of Washington&rsquo;s Farewell Address, admonished Kossuth:</p> <p>&ldquo;Far better is it for ourselves, for Hungary, and for the cause of liberty that, adhering to our wise, pacific system, and avoiding the distant wars of Europe, we should keep our lamp burning brightly on the western shore as a light to all nations, than to hazard its utter extinction amid the ruins of fallen or falling republics in Europe.&rdquo;</p> <p>Trump&rsquo;s U.N. address echoed Clay: <strong><em>&ldquo;In foreign affairs, we are renewing this founding principle of sovereignty. Our government&rsquo;s first duty is to its people &hellip; to serve their needs, to ensure their safety, to preserve their rights, and to defend their values.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>Trump is saying with John Quincy Adams that<strong> our mission is not to go &ldquo;abroad in search of monsters to destroy,&rdquo; but to &ldquo;put America first.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>He is <strong>repudiating the New World Order of Bush I, the democracy crusades of the neocons of the Bush II era, and the globaloney of Obama.</strong></p> <p>Trump&rsquo;s rhetoric implies intent; and action is evident from Rex Tillerson&rsquo;s directive to his department to rewrite its mission statement &mdash; and drop the bit about making the world democratic.</p> <p>The current statement reads: <em>&ldquo;The Department&rsquo;s mission is to shape and sustain a peaceful, prosperous, just, and democratic world.&rdquo;</em></p> <p><strong>Tillerson should stand his ground. For America has no divinely mandated mission to democratize mankind. And the hubristic idea that we do has been a cause of all the wars and disasters that have lately befallen the republic.</strong></p> <p>If we do not cure ourselves of this interventionist addiction, it will end our republic. When did we dethrone our God and divinize democracy?</p> <p><u><em><strong>And are 21st-century American values really universal values?</strong></em></u></p> <p>Should all nations embrace same-sex marriage, abortion on demand, and the separation of church and state if that means, as it has come to mean here, the paganization of public education and the public square?</p> <p><strong><em>If freedom of speech and the press here have produced a popular culture that is an open sewer and a politics of vilification and venom, why would we seek to impose this upon other peoples?</em></strong></p> <p>For the State Department to declare America&rsquo;s mission to be to make all nations look more like us might well be regarded as a uniquely American form of moral imperialism.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="768" height="386" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170922_trump.jpg?1506097014" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/buchanan-america-has-no-divinely-mandated-mission-democratize-mankind#comments America’s mission Democracy Department of State Department’s mission Donald Trump European people European Union France Germany Hungarian nobility Hungarian Revolution Hungary International relations Japan Lajos Kossuth National Endowment for Democracy Neocons Politics Public sphere Rex Tillerson Same-Sex Marriage United Nations Fri, 22 Sep 2017 18:53:23 +0000 Tyler Durden 603998 at http://www.zerohedge.com Fed's Kaplan Makes A Stark Admission: Equilibrium Rate May Be As Low As 0.25% http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/feds-kaplan-makes-surprising-admission-r-star-may-be-low-025 <p>As we have hammered away at for years, "the math doesn't work", and it appears The Fed just admitted it. </p> <p>In a stunning admission that i) US economic potential is lower than consensus assumes and ii) that the Fed is finally considering the gargantuan US debt load in its interest rate calculations, moments ago the Fed's Kaplan said something very surprising:</p> <ul> <li>KAPLAN SAYS NEUTRAL RATE MAY BE AS LOW AS 2.25 PCT, LEAVING FED "NOT AS ACCOMMODATIVE AS PEOPLE THINK"</li> </ul> <p>Another way of saying this is that r-star, or the <strong>equilibrium real interest rate of the US </strong>(calculated as the neutral rate less the Fed's 2.0% inflation target), <strong>is a paltry 0.25%.</strong></p> <p>What Kaplan effectively said, is that with slow secular economic growth and 'fast' debt growth, there's only so much higher-rate pain America can take before something snaps and as that debt load soars and economic growth slumbers so the long-term real 'equilibrium' interest rate is tamped down. It also would explain why the curve has collapsed as rapidly as it did after the Wednesday FOMC meeting, a move which was a clear collective scream of "policy error" from the market.</p> <p>This should <strong>not come as a surprise</strong>. As we showed back in December 2015, in "<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-06/blindingly-simple-reason-why-fed-about-engage-policy-error">The Blindingly Simple Reason Why The Fed Is About To Engage In Policy Error</a>", when calculating r-star, for a country with total debt to GDP of 350%...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/10/new%20and%20old%20debt%20vs%20GDP.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/10/new%20and%20old%20debt%20vs%20GDP_0.jpg" width="600" height="372" /></a></p> <p>... The equilbirium real rate is around 0.4-0.6% at most, certainly below 1%, and as low as 0.30%.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/11/equilibrium%20growth%20rate_2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/11/equilibrium%20growth%20rate_2_0.jpg" width="600" height="278" /></a></p> <p>Furthermore, as Deutsche Bank's Dominic Konstam said almost two years ago, "One might argue for low “implied” equilibrium short rates via debt ratios. For example, <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>if nominal growth is 3 percent and the debt GDP ratio is 300 percent, the implied equilibrium nominal rates is around 1 percent</strong></span>. This is <strong>because at 1% rates, 100% of GDP growth is necessary to service interest costs</strong>.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>In this case, <strong>real growth would slow in response to rate hikes because productivity would stay weak at full employment and companies would be profit/price constrained around paying higher wages</strong>. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Moreover, nominal growth would then slow even more than real growth does because inflation would fall to 1 percent or below.</p> </blockquote> <p>To be sure, the Fed hinted as much two days ago, when on Wednesday <strong>it lowered its longer-run federal funds <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20170920.pdf">rate to 2.75% from 3.00</a></strong>%. Another hint <a href="https://t.co/J61DPerwE4">came last week from the BOC which</a>, together with Bill Dudley, hinted it was willing to <strong>considering changing its mandate, i.e. lowering the inflation target, thereby unlocking some potential upside to the Real Interest Rate</strong>. </p> <p>In the meantime, however, the mere fact that another Fed president is once again hinting that r-star is far lower than consensus, is an indication that the central bank is very limited in how much more tightening it can pull out this cycle. The simple math is that if Kaplan is right, the Fed has at most 3 more hikes left before it prompts yield curve inversion and another recession. </p> <p>Expect to hear much more on this now that the r-star genie is out of the bottle. Finally the other consideration is that with the Fed once again talking about cutting the neutral rate, is means that not only is tightening approaching its end, but that the Fed may soon be forced to ease, by either cutting rates or QE. </p> <p>Which also explains the second part of Kaplan's statement: that the Fed is not as "accomodative as people think." That is basically the Dallas Fed president jawboning risk assets lower, an implied warning that the market is not appreciating how close to capacity the economy currently is. Of course, the question why stocks aren't dropping is best left to the ECB and BOJ...</p> <p>Then again, maybe this time the market will notice, as LT yields are finally starting to move.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/2017-09-22%20%284%29.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/09/05/2017-09-22%20%284%29_0.jpg" width="500" height="265" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1046" height="485" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/equilibrium%20growth%20rate_2.jpg?1506105422" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-22/feds-kaplan-makes-surprising-admission-r-star-may-be-low-025#comments Bank of Japan Bill Dudley Business Dallas Fed Dallas Fed Debt-to-GDP ratio Economy European Central Bank Federal funds rate Federal Reserve System Finance Inflation Inflation targeting Interest rates Monetary policy Money Real interest rate Recession US Federal Reserve Yield Curve Yield curve Fri, 22 Sep 2017 18:37:31 +0000 Tyler Durden 604012 at http://www.zerohedge.com