http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/fullrss2.xml/component/option%2Ccom_docman/Itemid%2C200023/gid%2C397/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/BoomBustBlog/Is-this-the-Breaking-of-the-Bear.html en Blain: "The High-Yield Market Is Where The Bond Supernova Will Erupt" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/blain-high-yield-market-where-bond-supernova-going-erupt <p><em>Blain's Morning Porridge, submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners</em></p> <p>It’s a US holiday and markets will be thin through today. To show my solidarity with our American cousins, I’m off for a proper lunch with clients in the West End and Malbec rules* will probably apply. </p> <p><strong>What happened in China this morning</strong>? Stocks down sharply (the steepest decline this year), on the back of rising inflation worries. Dong! – that strikes a chord. It seems yesterday’s Porridge – <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/blain-stop-worrying-about-yield-curve-something-much-worse-around-corner">dealing with the threat of an inflation shock </a>– was perfectly timed. <strong>Suddenly everyone is waking up to the I-threat.&nbsp; </strong></p> <p><strong>China is in sharp focus – bond yields keep climbing despite the PBOC injecting liquidity</strong>. My colleague Ara Levonian downstairs on the BGC floor points out <strong>we’ve got over $1 trillion of Chinese corporate debt coming up for refinancing next year. </strong>Put all the clues together: an inflationary environment, supply-side policies driving up wages and inflation, rising rates, and a large number of highly geared companies facing rate risk? </p> <p>Do you think it might end up messy? (Messy? Yes, but terminal probably not.. the Chinese can press the money spigot again and again.)</p> <p>And how different is the US? <strong>That’s why I’m watching the high-yield market – that’s where the bond supernova is going to erupt. Just like the next Icelandic volcano we can feel the high-yield market spluttering beneath our feet as an ominous cloud of steam rises above the glacier</strong>…. </p> <p><strong>I wonder if I should send the Fed a “No-S*it Sherlock” award for pointing out in the FOMC minutes that signals confirmed a “potential build-up of financial imbalances”</strong>. A December hike is pretty much nailed on. </p> <p>On the inflation theme, I got an absolutely classic email y’day from a reader whom I don’t actually know, but had picked up my comments on some financial wire. Thank’s Geoff! His thesis is the global authorities have been spinning us a line when it comes to inflation – pointing out in 1971 it would have taken a low wage worker 2 hours and 10 mins to afford a ticket to the then new Disneyland. Disney prices have experienced 8% y-o-y inflation since the park opened. The same ticket will now require 7 hours and 20 mins work – and they are still playing that damn tune. (The lyrics would almost be profound if the tune wasn’t so inane!) </p> <p>Geoff went on to point out: “<strong>The Indians shamefacedly admit their inflation is 9-13% - they are the only honest country on the planet!”</strong></p> <p><em>Meanwhile, in a galaxy far far away…</em></p> <p>The big talking point on the UK budget was housing – and the laudable efforts of the government to try to solve the housing problem. There are actually a whole series of problems including supply and affordability. </p> <p>I suspect cutting stamp duty to help first time buyers will simply drive up prices in the starter home sector. And £300k is still a hell-of-an-ask for millennials looking to get on the housing ladder. Unless Daddy is very successful banker or you just inherited some dosh – where is average millennial going to find a £60k deposit? </p> <p>Alongside the “Help to Buy” schemes, is it time to tweak property lending rules at the banks perhaps? Some of the decision making in property lending defies belief. I have a chum who has been paying her mortgage off without any stress after she and her partner split a few years back. After completing all the legals and getting everything signed, she’s gone to her bank to put the mortgage in her sole name. The bank told her she had to remortgage –so she applied and guess what – despite having no arrears and a good credit score, the bank have turned her down. What is she now supposed to do? It’s just stoopid. </p> <p>We speak to a large number of property professionals. Knight Frank is part of our parent company group. Developers, specialised commercial and resi lenders, real money property teams, housing associations and builders are all on our regular call list. The real issue most of them reference when discussing the UK housing market and the dearth of new builds are the blockages in the system – especially the planning process. </p> <p><strong>Every single professional I’ve spoken to in the UK housing sector complains about the planning process – not necessarily that it’s too restrictive, but that it’s just too damn slow and not-fit-for-purpose. </strong></p> <p>I’ve some experience in this – we submitted plans to our council for pre-planning advice three months ago, and our architect got told this week the team still hadn’t had time to consider them. We’re hoping to develop our home because the stamp duty we’d have to pay to buy a step-up property is just stupid money! </p> <p>No comment tomorrow – I’m speaking at a breakfast organised by Heriot-Watt University – which spent the early 80’s attempting to educate me. I’m looking forward to it immensely. I shall be reminding the audience of the very first thing Professor Keith Lumsden said at my very first economics lecture in 1980<strong>: “Economics is the study of horror comics, switchblade knives and pornographic literature.”&nbsp; </strong>Dang, but he was right! </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1920" height="1080" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/supernovca.jpg?1511442440" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/blain-high-yield-market-where-bond-supernova-going-erupt#comments Affordability of housing in the United Kingdom Asset price inflation Bond China Economy fed Heriot-Watt University Housing Market Inflation Loans Macroeconomics Money Mortgage loan People's Bank of China US Federal Reserve Thu, 23 Nov 2017 13:07:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 607796 at http://www.zerohedge.com Brexit Budget – Grim Outlook As UK Economy Downgraded http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/brexit-budget-%E2%80%93-grim-outlook-uk-economy-downgraded <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/brexit-budget-grim-outlook-uk-economy-downgraded/">Brexit budget - Grim outlook as UK economic forecasts downgrade</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>- UK Chancellor uses housing market policy as smoke-screen for deteriorating economy<br />- UK budget matters more than ever&nbsp;due to BREXIT risks</strong><br /><strong>- Policy on stamp duty will fail to aid worsening housing market</strong><br /><strong>- Real GDP expected to grow by just 1.5%, 40% less than projections 2 years ago</strong><br /><strong>- Households now face an unprecedented 17 years of stagnation in earnings</strong><br /><strong>- Critics&nbsp;claim Budget failed to calm Brexit uncertainty<br />- UK and especially London property market at "breaking point"</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Editor: Mark O'Byrne</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><img src="https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.prod.s3.amazonaws.com%2F94a5f948-cfc0-11e7-9dbb-291a884dd8c6?source=next&amp;quality=highest&amp;width=700" alt="Martin Wolf Budget chart" width="700" height="512" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter" /></p> <div class="n-layout" style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"> <div class="n-layout__row n-layout__row--content"> <div class="article__content n-content-body p402_premium"> <div class="n-content-layout" style="text-align: center;"><strong>Source:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/909148a8-cdf9-11e7-b781-794ce08b24dc" target="_blank">FT</a></strong> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">Yesterday UK Chancellor Philip Hammond's long-awaited Autumn Budget was delivered to the Houses of Parliament. He was praised for a 'good budget in political terms' and for talking up the&nbsp;UK economy, telling his contemporaries that that it is “confounding those who talk it down” and that “those who underestimated the UK, do so at their peril”.</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Hammond's comments suggest the economy is doing better than its critics said it&nbsp;is. This isn't the case. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) delivered some depressing statistics yesterday which suggest the recovery post-crisis and post-referendum is still a long way off.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Hammond was praised for his 'cheery' budget. His head had been very close to the block ahead of yesterday with many criticising his negative views on Brexit negotiations and general lack of optimism.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">In reality this really was a political budget. One designed for some quick-wins and support from the House and the media. It was hardly economic. Brexit was barely addressed, economic growth was referred to as 'stubborn' and the housing market was treated with a patronising cut in stamp duty. A band-aid on a haemorrhaging artery.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Is the UK economy proving its critics wrong?</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The government statistics agency cut the UK's projected growth forecast for 2017 from 2% to 1.5%. The OBR&nbsp;believes&nbsp;the economy can&nbsp;only now grow sustainably at a rate of 1.5 per cent, 40 per cent lower than it estimated as recently as two years ago.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/11/Snip20171123_3.png"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/11/Snip20171123_3-1024x663.png" width="1024" height="663" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-12482" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">On an international level we are expected to fall down the leaderboard of G7 countries in 2017 and into 2018. Just last year we were second only to Germany in terms of growth. Data from both the OBR and the IMF suggest lower forecasts for the UK's GDP and output.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This does not bode well for workers who have not only failed to see their wage levels increase for nearly a decade but are also worried about the impact of Brexit.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/11/Snip20171123_5.png"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/11/Snip20171123_5-1024x741.png" width="1024" height="741" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-12486" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Brexit boost?</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Hammond was praised for drawing attention away from the ongoing Brexit-saga. He mentioned the allocation of a further £3bn to help any outcome of the talks. For London May Sadiq Khan this was not enough:</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>"At a time when there’s uncertainty, at a time where we are being told by the EU we’re going down the road of an extreme, hard Brexit because of the response of this Government, businesses will think ‘you know what? We’re far better going off to Frankfurt, or going to Berlin, or going to Paris.</em></p> <p><em>"This is not me talking down London, it’s me being frustrated by this budget today. This, I think, is the most anti-London budget for a generation.</em></p> <p><em>"...At a time when businesses are frustrated by the lack of Londoners with the skills for the jobs of tomorrow, no rule news in relation to investing in young Londoners.</em></p> <p><em>"This was a chance for the Chancellor to have a big, bolder budget. He’s blown it."</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Khan's right. Businesses will be looking at yesterday's budget feeling as much in the dark as they were beforehand. There has been little guidance as to how the UK will work to make the capital city attractive post-Brexit and the incentives there will be to keep people employed here.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">It isn't just infuriating from a business perspective, but also for the London housing market which is nearly impossible for new entrants to join.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><em>"At a time when Londoners can’t afford to rent in London, let alone buy, no new rule news in relation to building affordable homes in London."</em></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Hammond couldn't even figure out that this wasn't an area that could be a quick policy announcement.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>The smoke-screen of stamp duty&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The media jumped on&nbsp;Hammond's pièce de résistance - removal of stamp duty for first time buyers. Which in reality is just a massive smokescreen designed to make us believe there is hope for the UK economy and housing market.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The main headline-grabbing announcement from Hammond in his Brexit budget was the removal of stamp-duty for first-time buyers purchasing houses under £300k.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This is unlikely to make any difference to either first-time buyers or the overall property market.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">As the OBR concluded from the Chancellor's announcement,&nbsp;the tax break was likely to push property prices up by about 0.3%, with most of the increase coming in 2018.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">“The main gainers from the policy,” said the forecasting group, “are people who already own property, not the FTBs [first-time buyers] themselves.”</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">It explained that whilst some potential FTBs, with smaller deposits, would now be able to borrow a little more “allowing them to buy properties that they otherwise could not afford" this would now be "more expensive”.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">So who is helping who out here, Chancellor? Is the government yet again encouraging citizens to go up and buy things they can't afford, thus pushing themselves further into debt?</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>“I welcome the chancellor’s announcement of £15bn of new support for housing but it doesn’t reflect the government’s ambition to solve the housing crisis and, crucially, it’s unclear about how it will help ordinary people to find a truly affordable home,” Lord Kerslake.</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The fact is people cannot afford to buy houses right how, not because of stamp duty but because house prices are far beyond the reach of those who have not seen wages and therefore their savings increase in nearly ten years. This is not set to change.&nbsp;Households now face an unprecedented 17 years of stagnation in earnings.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/11/Snip20171123_6.png"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/11/Snip20171123_6-1024x710.png" width="1024" height="710" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%; display: block; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-12485" /></a></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>A misunderstood market used as a political puppet</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The barrier to entry for first-time buyers is not the prospect of a few thousand pounds extra in tax. It is the near impossibleness of being able to save enough for the initial deposit. This is the main barrier as found in a recent Halifax bank survey. For those who can manage a deposit, that small amount of tax wasn't particularly prohibitive to them in the first place.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The government seems to be on yet another false-path to trying to&nbsp;prop up the ailing&nbsp;housing market, strong in the belief that it is the elixir of life for the UK economy. Why the constant encouragement to get on a housing ladder that is neither affordable, nor stable?</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">How can a housing market solve all of the problems when the demand side just cannot afford to get involved? The new figures from the OBR suggest that&nbsp;the downward revisions mean pay will not reach its 2008 level until the mid 2020s.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">So with rising inflation, plus expected rising interest rates and now further stagnation in wages it's not looking as though Hammond's solution is going to do much at all.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">The housing market is long past a quick fix in the Autumn budget. A recent Halifax bank survey&nbsp;recorded the weakest reading for consumer expectations since October 2012. The bank told the Guardian:</p> <blockquote style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><p><em>"Housing market optimism has declined significantly over the past year, with almost half of people expecting a general slowdown in the market.”</em></p> </blockquote> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This is what terrifies Hammond and the UK government. &nbsp;A housing market is seen as a measure for the health of an economy. With growth and productivity 'stubbornly' refusing to budge, the Chancellor has had to turn his attention to an area he can have a slightly more direct impact on - the housing market.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">However there is little evidence that such policies play out well in the long-term. For decades the UK government has worked to try bubble up the UK housing market. It has arguably worked very well. But a financial crisis, wage stagflation and stealth inflation means that it is at breaking point.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">This was being seen even before the UK voted for the biggest economic upset (Brexit) seen in modern history.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>A depressing yet timely reminder</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Yesterday's Brexit budget was a depressing yet timely reminder of the way politicians can manipulate economies and policies to suit their targets and save their jobs.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">It was a reminder for savers &nbsp;and investors everywhere, not just in the UK.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Hammond's distraction technique using the stamp-duty announcement, as well as the allocation of funds to Brexit, may have worked for the mainstream media but anyone hoping to protect the value of their portfolios should stay alert.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">As we explained recently:</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><em>The government needs to stop being so irresponsible and no longer constantly peddle arguments for home ownership. However it is&nbsp;difficult politically to sell that story. Especially when all parties have realised the youth vote has major housing concerns and believes they have the right to own property.</em></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For those who are not susceptible to the war-cry to the youth vote they would be wise to remember that there are other real assets out there, ones that cannot be manipulated by policy announcements and are less vulnerable to the machinations of career politicians.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Physical gold coins and bars are like housing. If owned as a diversification, in the safest ways, precious metals are tangible, safe stores of&nbsp;value.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">However, they do not come with&nbsp;a massive debt burden, owners do not have to live in fear of rising interest rates and unprecedented uncertainties in both political and economic spheres as we alluded to yesterday.</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Related reading</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/uk/gold-blog/political-uncertainty-hit-housing-market/" rel="bookmark">Political uncertainty to hit housing market</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/uk/gold-blog/london-house-prices-falling-time-buckle/" rel="bookmark">London House Prices Are Falling – Time to Buckle Up</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/uk/gold-blog/surging-uk-household-debt-will-cause-next-crisis/" rel="bookmark">Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>News and&nbsp;Commentary</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/22/gold-markets-weigh-fed-inflation-concerns.html">Gold prices dip on profit-taking amid Fed inflation concerns (CNBC.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-finds-small-boost-on-weaker-dollar-ahead-of-fed-minutes-2017-11-22">Gold gets a boost from weaker dollar, holds gains after Fed minutes (MarketWatch.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-22/fed-signals-december-hike-even-as-debate-on-inflation-persists">Fed Signals December Hike Even as Debate on Prices Persists (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-durable-goods/u-s-core-capital-goods-orders-drop-business-spending-strong-idUSKBN1DM1NX">U.S. core capital goods orders drop; business spending strong (Reuters.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-22/gold-fund-joins-bitcoin-frenzy-as-bulls-see-prices-at-10-000">This Gold Fund Is Joining the Bitcoin Frenzy (Bloomberg.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/11/gold-whipsawed-trading-volume-spiked.png"><img src="http://www.goldcore.com/ie/wp-content/uploads/sites/19/2017/11/gold-whipsawed-trading-volume-spiked.png" style="height: auto; max-width: 100%;" /><br /></a>Source: GoldSeek</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1511188994.php">SWOT Analysis: Gold Bounced Back After Attempts to Knock Down Price (GoldSeek.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/fiscal-sundown-in-america-part-1/">Fiscal Sundown In America, Part 1 (DavidStockMansContraCorner.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://stansberrychurchouse.com/education/investment-education/off-radar-technology-will-change-everything/?utm_medium=push_notification&amp;utm_source=rss&amp;utm_campaign=rss_pushcrew">This off-your-radar technology will change everything (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.scmp.com/business/article/2120938/how-are-asset-prices-so-high-amid-spiralling-us-debt-fed-recession-warnings">How are asset prices so high amid spiralling US debt, Fed recession warnings? (SCMP.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/21/investing/banks-too-big-to-fail-jpmorgan-bank-of-america/index.html">Too-big-to-fail banks keep getting bigger (CNN.com)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Gold Prices (LBMA AM)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">23 Nov: USD 1,290.15, GBP 969.93 &amp; EUR 1,089.40 per ounce<br />22 Nov: USD 1,283.95, GBP 969.25 &amp; EUR 1,092.51 per ounce<br />21 Nov: USD 1,280.00, GBP 967.04 &amp; EUR 1,090.69 per ounce<br />20 Nov: USD 1,292.35, GBP 974.82 &amp; EUR 1,096.43 per ounce<br />17 Nov: USD 1,283.85, GBP 969.31 &amp; EUR 1,088.19 per ounce<br />16 Nov: USD 1,277.70, GBP 969.01 &amp; EUR 1,085.53 per ounce<br />15 Nov: USD 1,285.70, GBP 976.62 &amp; EUR 1,086.29 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Silver Prices (LBMA)</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">23 Nov: USD 17.10, GBP 12.84 &amp; EUR 14.43 per ounce<br />22 Nov: USD 16.97, GBP 12.81 &amp; EUR 14.44 per ounce<br />21 Nov: USD 17.00, GBP 12.85 &amp; EUR 14.50 per ounce<br />20 Nov: USD 17.15, GBP 12.94 &amp; EUR 14.56 per ounce<br />17 Nov: USD 17.09, GBP 12.95 &amp; EUR 14.49 per ounce<br />16 Nov: USD 17.04, GBP 12.92 &amp; EUR 14.48 per ounce<br />15 Nov: USD 17.12, GBP 13.00 &amp; EUR 14.45 per ounce</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><br />Recent Market Updates</strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/geopolitical-risk-highest-four-decades-gold-demand-germany-globally-remain-robust/">-&nbsp;Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Gold Demand in Germany and Globally to Remain Robust</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-versus-bitcoin-pro-gold-argument-takes-shape/">-&nbsp;Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/money-markets-infographic-shows-silver-undervalued-asset/">-&nbsp;Money and Markets Infographic Shows Silver Most Undervalued Asset</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/new-fed-chief-swamp-critter-extraordinaire/">-&nbsp;Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/deepening-crisis-hyper-inflationary-venezuela-zimbabwe/">-&nbsp;Deepening Crisis In Hyper-inflationary Venezuela and Zimbabwe</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/uk-debt-crisis-consumer-spending-employment-sterling-fall-inflation-takes-off/">-&nbsp;UK Debt Crisis Is Here – Consumer Spending, Employment and Sterling Fall While Inflation Takes Off</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/protect-savings-gold-ecb-propose-end-deposit-protection/">-&nbsp;Protect Your Savings With Gold: ECB Propose End To Deposit Protection</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/internet-shutdowns-show-physical-gold-ultimate-protection/">-&nbsp;Internet Shutdowns Show Physical Gold Is Ultimate Protection</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/gold-coins-and-bars-saw-demand-rise-17-to-222t-in-q3/">-&nbsp;Gold Coins and Bars Saw Demand Rise 17% to 222T in Q3</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/prepare-interest-rate-rises-global-debt-bubble-collapse/">-&nbsp;Prepare For Interest Rate Rises And Global Debt Bubble Collapse</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/platinum-bullion-may-one-cheap-assets/">-&nbsp;Platinum Bullion ‘May Be One Of The Only Cheap Assets Out There’</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/worlds-largest-gold-producer-china-sees-production-fall-10/">-&nbsp;World’s Largest Gold Producer China Sees Production Fall 10%</a></strong><br /><strong><a href="http://www.goldcore.com/us/gold-blog/german-investors-now-worlds-largest-gold-buyers/">-&nbsp;German Investors Now World’s Largest Gold Buyers</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong>Important&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956il">Guides</span></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">For your perusal, below are our&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">most</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">popular</span>&nbsp;<span class="m_-928942620346942956m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il">guides</span>&nbsp;in 2017:</p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*N5MhbFRBkTqXW95dlRy194d-P0/5/f18dQhb0S5ft8X-f1rW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1ZW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHmp3PnStQVS9p0b63dhWbW8mp0Tc5x5KNkW7-XB_567h1CPW8r5PXz49z-4PN2MV0Xm5w8jDW1mw3yc59SFsZN4H-tjrQC5z2VPC2cV7gvpc4W4XYhBl2y9PQJW4sxqtN7h5hQFW28TbSB2Cg_LLW96LzRy5DkRJDW5BRXXj2y4Lc7N3Kd2SV_-Nf6W3brNsz66rKFTW2xH0xz1lcG1VVQBGcH5DQdGhN22JjmzdPgQwW9464-Y5GFs9DW4Rj6Nh6BzJrnN45Ly2MkwRN4W8qYMH51FnsVDW2X9_p02MVHnbN2GZdYq215_BW1J7MZd3mgJK7W4F32xR1JjtM5W4Bn5JG3ZzLH2W5jL56q7dkHC7W3VtW1b1MWhN-W1MKd944yqBfl111" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Switzerland</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W5Hh19S2J1j6jW1gxPj45yTRLt0/5/f18dQhb0S5fw8X-fbXW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrM1YW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z_p0c67hcl-W1qMTKP5xLd3bN8zTG51RBdNtW3L39B54P7Fz2W8rCHjG25x99KVwyMQc6PVJWyW625bx16Gj8TSW6bVy-525hjVhW83KHrF7J39qHN2m8DqKmmF0wW1jsTjn5VDnrHVbq5fx4TKc2lW6Rjg6t5Pk17jW2xZzRk8LpcPpW36k5sF4FnHNZW1mvfQB2BpzSjN1mT8mr2g4dYW5VZ-P_37vq3BW2--Tfh1w3GzfW5CkFpW6ZccdyW5vvKY_3N2S6fW3KRSNH8yxr7CW7YJp821cQlwRW63x06S1bBvW3W408wWR11rnNbV4Vjkz6NjfdLW55Fr2P5nn1d6W301cwV4GX00sW5hfR428jJDdkW4Cy2w54wj2JxVMFy4w4hyJQMV6N2-D1mPRd4N6YRN0Y4ZDMLD2LMBk7BT1f5Fq5PC03" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;To Storing Gold In Singapore</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;"><strong><a href="http://t.hsms10.com/e1t/c/*W1sFhNs6QLBySW4Rr0Hl90CHT-0/*W7dc5x_8dXcz0W57pb-W8yRfPY0/5/f18dQhb0Sjv98X-fhGW8cCGTT51FcdHN5s9DSvWrBCVW3MpzC43frry_W8r4Kht63lH28W1lQSSc8y_DL1W8z0sTg7mCbb0W57V1HT7tVHF9W8Z32tg35s628W859LV685kgn-W5mG2963qCNtmW8hTG4j5Zh496W2d551v3pNnKLVLrb9R83_Pn-W7JCxGl81bhDKW7N_KqM11GBXTW41TlcR3TwTqzW19BjML1ks0KjW7RPZVs5-2sjBW7ZzDyK7GLjPjW2KH_vB6SdpRZW1hx1p11Gg3W9W6rwy5K1YZKs5W2gFslL6NqPjwW1tbMwf7n90PHW67SS1j224DVBW6SdFBY1S1FW8W1Th1-Q1X2dwGW1swLvy81myPRW1B9M4Q6SdHPtW7C3gqS89xKZ9W1Ms6WG19gjwJN42ktpLPs031VgkKmy5qqk_FW41Q13s3srYmmW2-yGlm4v9PYhVmLW2J4r5l5jW7fnqv3187HWVW794lJw3T7yBDW1Zq0mT90vVQHW7SNfQy7BfhjRN3QzSrFQN_TjVcGblm3cFvNY0" target="_blank">Essential&nbsp;<span class="m_6690301754972839650m_5033479916755799273m_2111833215933341997il"><span class="m_6690301754972839650il">Guide</span></span>&nbsp;to Tax Free Gold Sovereigns (UK)</a></strong></p> <p style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, &quot;Bitstream Charter&quot;, Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">Please share our research with family, friends and colleagues who you think would benefit from being informed by it.</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/brexit-budget-%E2%80%93-grim-outlook-uk-economy-downgraded#comments Aftermath of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum Bitcoin Brexit Business China Currency Economics Economy Economy of the United Kingdom European Central Bank European Union Fail First-time buyer G7 Germany Housing in the United Kingdom Housing Market Inflation International Monetary Fund off-your-radar technology Office for Budget Responsibility office of Budget Responsibility Philip Hammond Precious Metals Reality Recession recovery Reuters Sovereigns Stagflation Stock market crashes Switzerland UK Government US Federal Reserve Thu, 23 Nov 2017 12:31:56 +0000 GoldCore 607795 at http://www.zerohedge.com Europe Rebounds From Chinese Rout After Stellar PMIs; US Closed For Holiday http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/europe-rebounds-chinese-rout-after-stellar-pmis-us-closed-holiday <p>Nothing can keep the BTFD spirit at bay in Europe this Thanksgiving morning. </p> <p>Having started the session on the back-foot after the biggest <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/chinese-stocks-plummet-shanghai-tumbles-most-17-months-bond-rout-spreads">Chinese stock market tumble </a>in 17 months (the SHCOMP dropped -2.3%, most since June 2016) amid tighter liquidity conditions as a result of today's Thanksgiving holiday in the US and attempts by regulators to rein in asset management firms and the micro-loan market, the negative sentiment was short-lived however, a slew of blockbuster November Eurozone PMIs, among which the highest output print in 79 months, with the highest employment number in 17 years, helped revive sentiment in Europe - and brought the Eurostoxx back to green on the session. Among the notable composite PMI prints: </p> <ul> <li>France 60.1 vs est. 57.2 </li> <li>Germany 57.6 vs ext. 56.7 </li> <li>Euro zone 57.5 vs est. 56.0</li> </ul> <p>Markit noted this was a multi-year highs seen for all main indicators of output, demand, employment and inflation </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Eurozone?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Eurozone</a> output <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PMI?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PMI</a> hits 79-month high (57.5) in November. Employment rises to greatest extent in 17 years. <a href="https://t.co/lY3ICXieSp">https://t.co/lY3ICXieSp</a> <a href="https://t.co/hCY1Dx9uzh">pic.twitter.com/hCY1Dx9uzh</a></p> <p>— Markit Economics (@MarkitEconomics) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkitEconomics/status/933631288715677696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 23, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>Commenting&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; on&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; the&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; flash&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; PMI&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; data,&nbsp; Chris&nbsp; Williamson,&nbsp;&nbsp; Chief&nbsp;&nbsp; Business&nbsp; Economist&nbsp;&nbsp; at&nbsp; IHS Markit said: “The&nbsp; message&nbsp; from&nbsp; the&nbsp; latest&nbsp; Eurozone&nbsp; PMI&nbsp; is clear: business is booming. Growth kicked higher in November to put the region on course for its best quarter since the start of 2011. The PMI is so far running&nbsp; at a&nbsp; level&nbsp; signalling&nbsp; a&nbsp; 0.8%&nbsp; increase&nbsp; in GDP&nbsp; in&nbsp; the&nbsp; final&nbsp; quarter&nbsp; of&nbsp; 2017, which would round - off the best year for a decade."</p> <p>Helping sentiment was an overnight report from Bloomberg that Germany's SPD is "open to talks" with Merkel on forming a government, while a subsequent unconfirmed tweet by an Economist journalist suggested that SPD leader Martin Schultz may resign today, opening the way for another grand coalition. </p> <p>In terms of sector specific performance, utilities are the notable underperformers with Centrica (-15%) issuing a profit warning this morning after losing 823k customers in the last 4 months.</p> <p>And so, with European optimism and upward momentum undented by China's mini crash, FX markets predictably saw the EUR/USD back firmly above the 1.1800 handle vs the Dollar and eyeing recent highs at 1.1861, which forms the base of chart resistance up to 1.1880. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/11/18/EURUSD%2011.23.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/11/18/EURUSD%2011.23_0.jpg" width="500" height="256" /></a></p> <p>As RanSquawk points out, the GBP/USD edged back above 1.3300 despite UK GDP printing in-line with expectations and soft business investment data with some highlighting selling already seen heading into the release and firmer personal consumption numbers. Elsewhere, the USD-index has slumped further, through recent lows and now only just holding above 93.000. USD softer as some FOMC members appeared less convinced about a December rate hike on inflation grounds, and more importantly share Fed Chair Yellen’s concerns about whether downside price pressures are likely to persist.</p> <p>As the EURUSD rose, bund futures dipped, and peripheral spreads widened marginally though volumes are poor. The latest foray above the big figure in Bunds looked half-hearted from the outset, and with no follow-through from 163.11 to really challenge recent peaks the path of least resistance has proved to be down again. Sellers could have been encouraged by better than forecast Eurozone flash PMIs, but in truth there was little conviction off the Eurex open to tackle the closest upside chart target at 163.14. On the flip-side, support is seen at 162.85 and the 162.89 low so far suggests that level is protecting revisits of yesterday’s deeper troughs. Conversely, Gilts remain elevated having edged a marginal new Liffe high at 125.20 (+20 ticks) just before the UK data showing unchanged growth rates from the 1st readings, but some weak internal metrics. At the short end, some Euribor buying noted in small clips and turnover light across the board for obvious reasons.</p> <p>Commodities trading has been relatively uneventful thus far with prices taking a breather from the prior day’s advances. This saw mild profit taking in gold with WTI giving back the recently reclaimed USD 58/bbl level, although oil prices remain near their best levels in over 2 years as several OPEC members including Saudi are jawboning about a 9-month output deal extension. Spot gold moved inside the range of yesterday’s session highs. </p> <p>US stocks are, of course, closed today for the Thanksgiving holiday. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="529" height="271" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/EURUSD%2011.23.jpg?1511439707" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/europe-rebounds-chinese-rout-after-stellar-pmis-us-closed-holiday#comments Business Currency Economy Economy of the European Union Euro European Union Eurostoxx Eurozone Eurozone flash FOMC Foreign exchange market France Germany Gilts Gross domestic product Index Markit OPEC Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries Personal Consumption RANSquawk Twitter Twitter US Federal Reserve Thu, 23 Nov 2017 12:24:57 +0000 Tyler Durden 607794 at http://www.zerohedge.com Jamie Dimon Bets Trump Will Last Only One Term As President http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/jamie-dimon-bets-trump-will-only-last-one-term-president <p>In an October 2017 interview, Jamie Dimon famously lambasted Bitcoin as a “fraud” and the people who bought it as “stupid” which, temporarily, halted the ascent in the Bitcoin price. It also led to much heated debate in the mainstream media and much anger across the crypto community. In a just as incendiary follow up, Dimon sat down for another interview, this time as “The Economic Club of Chicago”. </p> <p>We wondered whether he would confirm recent reports that JPMorgan Chase would buy and sell Bitcoin futures for clients after the upcoming launch on the CME. Sadly, he wasn’t pressed on this question. Instead, he had some striking comments about the longevity of Trump’s Presidency, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-dimon/jpmorgans-dimon-says-trump-likely-to-be-a-one-term-president-idUSKBN1DM2LW?il=0">Reuters</a> reports. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co, on Wednesday said he expects to see a new U.S. president in 2021 and advised the Democratic party to come up with a “pro-free enterprise” agenda for jobs and economic growth instead. Asked at a luncheon hosted by The Economic Club of Chicago how many years Republican President Donald Trump will be in office, Dimon said, <strong>“If I had to bet, I’d bet three and half. But the Democrats have to come up with a reasonable candidate ... or Trump will win again.”</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Dimon, who in the past has described himself as “barely” a Democrat, has been going to Washington more often since the 2016 elections to lobby lawmakers on issues including changes in corporate taxes, immigration policies and mortgage finance. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In December, Dimon became chairman of the Business Roundtable, an association of CEOs who take their views to government policymakers. </p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user235761/imageroot/2017/11/22/Dimon.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user235761/imageroot/2017/11/22/Dimon_0.jpg" width="500" height="333" /></a></p> <p>As <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-22/dimon-says-he-d-raise-his-own-taxes-to-get-corporate-rates-cut">Bloomberg</a> adds, Dimon had “several digs” at Trump during the hour-long discussion which covered issues from the current tax reform, lessons from the financial crisis and gender equality in the workplace. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Regarding the nation to the south, Dimon said that “we should never be rude to a neighbor like Mexico." Dimon conceded that sometimes the president is "partially right,” like on his stance with China, which has unfair advantages in terms of trade. And the CEO offered his opinion that Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan should be president, based on the job he’s done with that city.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Dimon, who is chairman of the Business Roundtable in addition to running the largest U.S. bank, also proposed what he’d like to see in the tax overhaul that Trump aims to make the signature achievement of his first year in office. The U.S. needs to cut corporate rates to keep businesses from moving abroad, even if that means raising rates for wealthy individuals and removing the carried interest tax break for investment managers, Dimon said.</p> </blockquote> <p>Pushing negative tax rates for low income individuals and limiting state and local tax deduction, because it benefits the wealthy, Dimon was on fine form in terms of showing his “caring” side. From Bloomberg.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“I don’t think the private equity guys should argue for carried interest, I don’t think the hedge fund guys should be arguing for deferrals, I don’t think I should argue for reducing my rate,” he said. “If you want to raise my rate, so be it.”</p> </blockquote> <p>Moving on to gender, race and how he loves his job, Bloomberg reports. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Dimon spoke for several minutes about discrimination over gender and race which he said is not acknowledged enough in the United States. “If you’re white, paint yourself black and walk down the street one day, and you’ll probably have a little more empathy for how some of these folks get treated,” Dimon said. “We need to make a special effort because this is a special problem.”</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Dimon gave his own bank a mixed review on diversity. His direct reports include people who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender (LGBT), and half are women as are 30 percent of the top 200 JPMorgan executives, he said. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Now in his 12th year as JPMorgan’s CEO, Dimon also reflected a bit on his own role. “I basically love my job,” Dimon said. “I mean, it’s tiring; it’s exhausting. I have to go down to Washington all the time and it’s a big pain in the ass, but I basically love my job.” </p> </blockquote> <p>Bloomberg also reports that Dimon is going to write a book about the financial crisis. We presume he means the last one, not the one that’s coming, although if he waits a little longer, he should be able to do both. If it’s the last one, we look forward to hearing why JPM, as Lehman’s main “clearing” bank, deprived Lehman of billions of dollars of collateral just prior to the latter going bankrupt. JPM was subsequently fined $1.42 billion. </p> <p>As for Jamie Dimon, he is worth over a billion dollars. He is also, infamously, "<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-27/jamie-dimon-thats-why-i-am-richer-you">richer than you</a>."</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="420" height="221" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/dimon%20trump.jpg?1511438235" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/jamie-dimon-bets-trump-will-only-last-one-term-president#comments Bitcoin Bitcoin Business Chase Bank China Democratic Party Detroit Donald Trump Economic Club of Chicago Economy of New York City Economy of the United States Finance House of Morgan Jamie Dimon Jamie Dimon JPMorgan Chase JPMorgan Chase Lehman Mexico Politics Private Equity Reuters Social Issues Thu, 23 Nov 2017 11:57:34 +0000 Tyler Durden 607793 at http://www.zerohedge.com Chinese Stocks Plummet: Shanghai Tumbles Most In 17 Months As Bond Rout Spreads http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/chinese-stocks-plummet-shanghai-tumbles-most-17-months-bond-rout-spreads <p>The euphoria from the year-end melt up in Europe and the US failed to inspire Chinese traders, and overnight China markets suffered sharp losses, with the Shanghai Composite plunging 2.3%, its biggest one day drop since June 2016, over growing fears that the local bond rout is getting out of control. Both the tech-heavy Chinext and the blue chip CSI 300 Index dropped over 3%, as the sharp selloff accelerated in the last hour, as Beijing's "national team" plunge protection buyers failing to make an appearance. There were sixteen decliners for every one advancing share. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/11/21/20171122_chna.png"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/11/21/20171122_chna_0.png" width="600" height="313" /></a></p> <p>In addition to tech, consumer non-cyclical and health-care sectors, the hardest hit names were banks such as ICBC, Ping An Insurance and Kweichow Moutai. Over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slid 1 percent from a decade-high, one day after closing above 30,000.</p> <p>Confirming our report from last week, that <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-17/traders-puzzled-after-chinese-media-warning-triggers-market-selloff">traders were stunned by an official warning from Beijing </a>that some stocks - in this case Kweichow Moutai, one of the most popular stocks among investors&nbsp; - had risen "too far, too fast", Ken Peng, strategist at Citi private bank, told CNBC Thursday that over the weekend he had heard views about particular Chinese stocks having moved too fast. He also said that Thursday's downward move was impacted by "relative tight liquidity conditions in financial markets overall, because of a more stringent liquidity policy by the central bank."</p> <p>"The decline in Moutai has triggered selloffs in some of this year’s best performing stocks," said Zhengyang Shen, Shanghai-based analyst at Northeast Securities. "When those giant stocks fall, retail investors will follow to sell their holdings. The ChiNext stocks do not have much support from the national team, so they fell even more," he said, referring to state-backed funds.</p> <p>As Bloomberg adds, today’s tumble was especially jarring given this year’s relative placidity in the stock market - the world’s second-largest. Volatility on the Shanghai Composite Index fell to the lowest level in decades earlier this month amid signs the government was curbing speculation in the wake of 2015’s $5 trillion rout. For Dickie Wong, executive director of research at Kingston Securities Ltd. in Hong Kong, it’s too soon to talk about panic selling. </p> <p>At the same time, just days after we warned that "<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-20/chinas-shadow-banking-clampdown-slams-stocks-which-miraculously-recover-end-green">A "New Era" In Chinese Regulation Means Turmoil For $15 Trillion In China's "Shadows</a>", yields on sovereign debt and top-rated local corporate notes climbed to the highest level in three years as China's deleveraging campaign accelerated (don't worry, it will stop the moment one or more corp or sov issues go bidless). As Bloomberg adds, <strong>with more than $1 trillion of local bonds maturing in 2018-19, it will become increasingly expensive for Chinese companies to roll over financing. </strong></p> <p>"Cash is king now on the mainland," Castor Pang, head of research at Core-Pacific Yamaichi HK told Bloomberg. "Rising bond yields will be negative for corporate profits, since it will increase financing costs. That’s very bad news for the stock market." </p> <p>Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year sovereign bonds rose above 4% on Wednesday, <strong>while yields on five-year top-rated local corporate notes have jumped about 33 basis points this month to a three-year high of 5.3 percent, according to data compiled by clearing house ChinaBond</strong>.<strong></strong> That said, selling eased a little in the nation’s sovereign debt market on Thursday. The 10-year yield fell two basis points to 4.02%, after climbing 39 basis points this month, although the yield on five-year bonds rose three basis points to 4.04%. </p> <p>Not even the PBOC's generous 100Bn yuan net liquidity injection helped ease liquidity and deleveraging nerves. </p> <p>There was some good news, if only in terms of narratives: "You can say this is a correction but I don’t think it’s a market meltdown," Wong said. "Market sentiment is still okay but after recent gains it’s time to pull back." </p> <p>"The plunge in China’s bond market is driving mainland stocks lower, especially financial-related shares," said Steven Leung, executive director at UOB Kay Hian (Hong Kong) Ltd. "Most A-share investors believe there will be further tightening in financial markets. Investor sentiment has been quite cautious in China, even though Hong Kong kept hitting 10-year high. There’s a lack of further momentum to move up."<strong><br /></strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="966" height="504" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171122_chna.png?1511440889" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-23/chinese-stocks-plummet-shanghai-tumbles-most-17-months-bond-rout-spreads#comments Bond Bond Business China Economy Finance Financial markets Fixed income Hang Seng 40 Hong Kong Investment Investor Sentiment Kweichow Moutai Market liquidity Market Sentiment Meltdown Money People's Bank of China Sovereign Debt SSE 50 Stock market Volatility Yuan Thu, 23 Nov 2017 10:10:40 +0000 Tyler Durden 607792 at http://www.zerohedge.com UK Trader Fined 60,000 Pounds For Outsmarting Algos http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/uk-trader-fined-60000-pounds-outsmarting-algorithms <p><strong>Yet another UK trader is being punished by overzealous regulators</strong> for an accomplishment that should instead have earned him accolades:<strong><em> Outsmarting the machines.</em></strong></p> <p>In a case that echoes some of the circumstances surrounding the scapegoating of former UK-based trader Nav Sarao, former Bank of America Merrill Lynch bond trader Paul Walter <u><strong>has been fined 60,000 pounds by the FCA for a practice that regulators call &lsquo;algo baiting&rsquo;.</strong></u></p> <p>Algorithm baiting is similar to spoofing &ndash; a practice that has been banned by stock-market regulators as those markets have embraced high-frequency trading practices that have broken markets and made them more vulnerable to this type of manipulation. But fixed income markets, like the Dutch loan market Walter is accused of manipulating, have been slower to embrace HFT-type trading. Because of this delay, Walter is a pioneer. Using BrokerTec, a popular fixed-income trading platform, Walter would place a bunch of bids for a given bond, triggering trend-following algos to follow suit. Then he would quickly cancel the bids. Here&rsquo;s a more complete explanation per the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1f3ad4e4-7e98-30ce-8ce9-a851281f1aff">Financial Times.&nbsp; </a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Mr Walter entered bids for Dutch state loans that pushed up their price. <strong>Then, when other algorithmic trades followed him in response and raised their bids, Mr Walter sold to them and cancelled his quote. This happened 11 times between July and August 2014 while he was working for the bank, the FCA said, while on one occasion he did the opposite. He netted a total of &euro;22,000 profit from this &ldquo;algo baiting&rdquo;.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Mark Steward, the head of FCA enforcement, said the FCA would remain &ldquo;vigilant&rdquo; in detecting abusive practices like &ldquo;algo bating&rdquo;. Of course, programmers could also build better algorithms, stamping out the practice without any help from the government.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/11/20/2017.11.22teasefca.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/11/20/2017.11.22teasefca_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 242px;" /></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&ldquo;Market manipulation undermines market integrity and confidence. The FCA will be vigilant in detecting abusive practices and will take robust action to protect issuers and participants from all over the world from the harm caused by such abuse.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Tellingly, Walter did not know that what he was doing was market abuse. But the FCA still found him negligent even though the regulations surrounding these aggressive trading tactics in fixed income markets are not well-defined.</p> <p>According to the FCA&rsquo;s register of regulated individuals, Walter became inactive in August 2014 and previously worked at UBS.</p> <p>Of course, the government&rsquo;s motivation in fining Walter sets an important precedent that will help regulators in the future. With the ECB tapering its bond purchases (though that&rsquo;s not the terminology Mario Draghi would use), the centrally-planned markets regime that&rsquo;s persisted since the crisis is about to unravel. <strong>While many Wall Street strategists and PMs remain bullish, regulators see the writing on the wall. They understand the risks that NIRP, market-distorting asset purchases and an increasing reliance on ETFs and high-frequency trading algorithms have created. And when it all comes crashing down &ndash; like it did during the May 2010 flash crash &ndash; regulators will already have their scapegoat ready.</strong></p> <p>Years after the crash, authorities arrested Sarao and blamed him for triggering the largest wipeout in market history by placing large orders for S&amp;P 500 e-mini contracts, then cancelling them, to manipulate prices in a way that would benefit his trading positions. Sarao has insisted he did nothing wrong, but that didn&rsquo;t stop the UK from extraditing him to the US, where he faces serious jail time, as we noted above.</p> <p>The irony, of course, is hard to miss: <strong><em>Sarao, a small-time trader, is facing prison, while the architects of today&rsquo;s broken markets receive accolades and are rewarded with lucrative jobs in private equity once they&rsquo;re done working in government.</em></strong></p> <p>And just so we can <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/flash-crash-anniversary-scapegoat-sarao-says-i-did-nothing-wrong-apart-being-good-my">relive the flash crash in all its horrifying glory, </a>here is an video courtesy of Nanex showing trading in the e-mini future which Sarao has been accused of spoofing.</p> <p><u><strong>The punchline: Sarao&#39;s orders are shown in red, and they disappear well before the most acute part of the flash crash.</strong></u></p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LHC00Xr3AU0" width="560"></iframe><br />&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="591" height="286" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.11.22teasefca.JPG?1511366957" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/uk-trader-fined-60000-pounds-outsmarting-algorithms#comments Algorithmic trading Bank of America Bank of America Bond Business Economy European Central Bank Finance Financial markets fixed flash Flash Crash High-frequency trading high-frequency trading algorithms Market Manipulation Mathematical finance Merrill Merrill Lynch Money Navinder Sarao Private Equity S&P 500 Share trading Spoofing Stock market Thu, 23 Nov 2017 10:09:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 607756 at http://www.zerohedge.com A Swarm Of Earthquakes Beneath The San Andreas Fault Is Making Scientists Nervous http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/swarm-earthquakes-beneath-san-andreas-fault-making-scientists-nervous <p>Warner Bros Pictures might want to rethink the shooting of San Andreas II &ndash; the sequel to the 2015 blockbuster about a massive earthquake striking the San Francisco Bay Area that starred the Rock, Paul Giamatti and a host of other A-list actors.</p> <p>Because if the US Geological Survey&rsquo;s worst fears are confirmed, the seismic devastation depicted in the film might hit a little too close to home. According to the <span id="cke_bm_451S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_450S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_449S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_448S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_447S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5106621/134-earthquakes-rattle-San-Andreas-fault-just-one-week.html">Daily Mail,</a> <u><strong>134 earthquakes have hammered a three-mile stretch around Monterey County on the San Andreas fault over the last week &ndash; a pace that&rsquo;s making seismologists nervous.</strong></u></p> <p>The San Andreas fault stretches 750 miles north to south across coastal California, forming the boundary of the Pacific plate and North American plate.</p> <p>Of those earthquakes, <strong>17 were stronger than 2.5 magnitude </strong>and <strong>6 of them were stronger than 3.0.</strong> And experts at the USGS warn that more tremors are expected in the coming weeks.</p> <p>The rumblings are amplifying fears raised last week that the &#39;Big One&#39; &ndash; the mythical quake depicted in the movie &lsquo;San Andreas&rsquo; &ndash; could be about to hit. In another sign of impending disaster, ten &#39;mini quakes&#39; struck the same area last week. <strong>That swarm included one 4.6-magnitude quake that was felt in San Francisco more than 90 miles away.</strong></p> <p>&ldquo;This one has been a quite productive aftershock sequence,&rdquo; said Ole Kaven, a US Geological Survey seismologist.</p> <p><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5106621/134-earthquakes-rattle-San-Andreas-fault-just-one-week.html"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/11/20/2017.11.22sanandreas_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 411px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>&ldquo;We suspect there will be aftershocks in the 2 to 3 [magnitude] range for at least a few more weeks,&rdquo; </strong>he said.</p> <p>Fortunately, nobody was injured in the quake storm.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p> <p>Last week&#39;s swarm hit California&#39;s Monterey County on Monday at 11:31 am ET about 13 miles northeast of Gonzales, near Salinas.</p> <p>It dramatically increases the likelihood of a major quake in California, at least temporarily, experts claimed.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/11/20/2017.11.22quakefault.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/11/20/2017.11.22quakefault_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 190px;" /></a></p> <p>The initial 4.6-magnitude quake was followed by nine smaller aftershocks.</p> <p>The largest of the tremors measured magnitude 2.8, according to Annemarie Baltay, a seismologist with the US Geological Survey in Menlo Park.</p> <p><strong>The quake happened at a depth of around 4 miles directly on top of the fault, close to a region where the Calaveras Fault branches off.</strong></p> <p>Experts have previously warned that any activity on the fault line is cause for concern.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/11/20/2017.11.22quake.JPG"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017/11/20/2017.11.22quake_0.JPG" style="width: 500px; height: 394px;" /></a></p> <p>&ldquo;Any time there is significant seismic activity in the vicinity of the San Andreas fault, we seismologists get nervous,&rdquo; Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Centre, said, according to the Mail.<br />&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="793" height="301" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user245717/imageroot/2017.11.22quakefault.JPG?1511357936" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/swarm-earthquakes-beneath-san-andreas-fault-making-scientists-nervous#comments Aftershock Baja California earthquake California Disaster Earthquake Environment Geography of California Parkfield earthquake San Andreas Fault Seismic scale Seismology Southern California Southern California Earthquake Centre Thu, 23 Nov 2017 10:07:37 +0000 Tyler Durden 607742 at http://www.zerohedge.com The Two Churchills And The World's "Collective Munchausen Syndrome" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/two-churchills-and-worlds-collective-munchausen-syndrome <p><a href="http://epsilontheory.com/the-two-churchills/"><em>Authored by Rusty Guinn via Epsilon Theory blog,</em></a></p> <p><strong>This is my favorite street art in the world.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/11/21/20171122_chiurchill1.png"><img height="333" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/11/21/20171122_chiurchill1_0.png" width="600" /></a></p> <p><strong>It adorns a rail bridge that soars above I-45 in Houston.</strong> More than 300,000 cars pass by it every day. It has been modified a couple times by other street artists, but every time it goes back.</p> <p>It&rsquo;s a complicated statement, and I suspect people read it different ways.<strong> To most, it means to Be Someone Important. To matter. It&rsquo;s an external way of reading it: to have an impact.</strong> To be engaged. To have your contributions to the world, or humanity or some other measure weighed and acknowledged as a net positive. To be known and well-thought of.</p> <p><strong>There&rsquo;s another reading that is more internal in perspective: to find the whole person that we are. </strong>Not an amalgam of symbols and identities and tribal affiliations, or of words we use to describe those things and hide ourselves behind language. To be a man or woman in full. To be <u><strong><em>someone</em></strong></u>.</p> <p>There is nothing wrong with wanting to <em>Be Someone </em>in the external sense. <strong>But it is perilous.</strong></p> <p><strong>When our engagement with our communities and our societies is driven by a desire to have the greatest possible impact on the world, we are prone to competitive behaviors and to seeing competitive behaviors in others.</strong></p> <p>At a time when we are already being <a href="http://epsilontheory.com/always-go-to-the-funeral/"><strong>forced into a Competitive Game</strong></a>, it isn&rsquo;t a long road from well-intentioned desire to be known for changing the world to existential defensiveness, where we become slaves to how we think others are judging us, or worse, where we impose that slavery on others.</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><strong>There were two notable men in the Second World War who bore the surname Churchill. Both were British, and both are famous.</strong> I&rsquo;m sure that you know at least one I&rsquo;m talking about, but maybe not the other. Both were men in full.</p> <p><strong>Sir Winston Churchill, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, </strong>is regarded by many historians and other chroniclers of the times as the most indispensable man of the 20<sup>th</sup> Century.</p> <p>More importantly, he is regarded by me that way. As author, orator, humorist, strategist, motivator and statesman, he was a man from another time at a time when the rush of modernity required exactly that.</p> <p><strong>The other, Lieutenant-Colonel John Malcolm Thorpe Fleming Churchill,</strong> was no relation to the prime minister, but had every bit of the more noteworthy Churchill&rsquo;s quirky personality.</p> <p>He was a newspaper editor, actor and male model born in Hong Kong who toured Burma on a motorcycle while stationed by the British Army there during the &lsquo;20s. When war broke out again in 1939, he joined the British Expeditionary Forces in France. His tenure in Europe was an eventful one.</p> <p><strong>THE Churchill wanted to Be Someone.</strong> His tongue was only planted partially in cheek when he famously (and somewhat apocryphally) said that history would be kind to him because he intended to write it. He cared deeply about how he was perceived and about his reputation. His speeches were famously rich with evocative language and calculated delivery, and he cultivated a preternatural ability to induce emotional response. At that unique point in time, the stalwart British needed a man who would make <em>himself</em> great to make his <em>nation</em> capable of greatness. To modern sensibilities this carries a whiff of distasteful inauthenticity. Our culture so prizes the trappings of humility that the proud hero who <em>knows he is a hero</em> and plays the role willingly is typically considered to be no hero at all. Sir Winston would have reared back his head in laughter at such a heaping load of tosh.</p> <p><strong>The OTHER Churchill wanted to Be Someone, too.</strong> That someone was <u><strong><em>Mad Jack</em>.</strong></u> He was <strong>a character straight out of a storybook</strong>, and not some soft Caldecott Medal-winning heartwarmer. We&rsquo;re talking one of those German tailor-chopping-off-the-kid&rsquo;s-thumbs-because-he-wouldn&rsquo;t-stop-sucking them storybooks. In some of his early action in May 1940, he signaled the attack on a German position at L&rsquo;Epinette by shooting a barbed arrow from an <em>English longbow</em> into a German sergeant. After joining the Commandos, his first campaign brought him to the shores of Norway, where he jumped out of the landing boat, grabbed his bagpipe and blew <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRhZHI_Xb8g"><strong>The March of the Cameron Men</strong></a> before pulling out a grenade and tossing it at the German position.</p> <p><em><strong>Later, he landed in Sicily with his pipes on his back and broadsword in his hand. </strong>After that, he moved on to Molina. There, together with a corporal he grabbed for the mission, Churchill captured a German position&hellip;along with the 42 Nazi troops manning it. In Yugoslavia he was the last man standing from his unit after heavy mortar fire, and fired every weapon he could find at advancing Germans until he ran out of ammo. What did he do then? Well, obviously, he jumped up, grabbed his pipes and played <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xl9240HWXBU">Will Ye No Come Back Again</a> until he got knocked out by a grenade.</em></p> <p><em>He was captured and escaped. Captured and escaped again. Walked 100 miles to Italy and lived out the rest of his life in peace. No, I&rsquo;m kidding. He rescued 700 doctors and patients in Palestine, defended a medical convoy from 250 insurgent fighters, did more acting, designed surfboards, built coal-fired riverboats and rode motorcycles throughout the English countryside until he finally decided the world was too boring in 1996.</em></p> <p><strong><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/11/21/20171122_chiurchill2.png"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/11/21/20171122_chiurchill2.png" style="width: 601px; height: 199px;" /></a></strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;He was slightly eccentric. He had very unusual taste but was happy so long as he was doing his own thing.&rdquo;<br />&nbsp;- Malcolm Churchill, speaking about his father, Lt. Col Jack Churchill</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;I felt as if I were walking with destiny, and that all my past life had been but a preparation for this hour and this trial.<br />&nbsp;- Winston Churchill</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>There&rsquo;s nothing wrong with wanting to <em>Be Someone</em> like Winston Churchill.</strong> I think highly enough of him that I named my firstborn son after him. There&rsquo;s nothing wrong with aspiring to greatness, or with seeking reputation. The desire to have an impact on the world usually comes from a good place.</p> <p>But in seeking to promote our brands, <strong>in our search for greater impact and influence, we are doing a lot of things that are killing our ability to have real dialogue with one another.</strong> As we grapple with how to break ourselves out of the Competitive Game we&rsquo;re being forced into, we must also understand the forces that are keeping us there. Here are some of the ways in which our desire for our small voice to have an impact among 7 billion others is keeping us there instead.</p> <h2><u>The Principal / Agent Problem in Media</u></h2> <p>In <a href="http://epsilontheory.com/fiat-money-fiat-news/"><strong>Fiat Money, Fiat News</strong></a>, Ben discussed how,<strong> in the same way that bad money drives good money out of circulation, fake news drives real news out of circulation</strong>. Like money, this can manifest itself in two ways: through true counterfeiting of the news itself, or through biased presentations of facts published as advocacy by institutions acting as principals. In other words, <em>fiat news.</em> Some of those institutions are sovereign entities <em>&mdash;</em> like, say, Russia <em>&mdash;</em> that have an interest in promoting their interests through both <em>fake</em> and <em>fiat</em> channels. But some, probably most, of those in the business of fiat news are the media outlets themselves.</p> <p><strong>The media&rsquo;s indispensable function is its ability to make available information that <em>others do not want disseminated, </em></strong>especially when those others are governments, corporations and other powerful entities and individuals. In this function, journalists act as agents for the public, and do it a significant service. In some cases, that service really changed the world. The intent was to reveal and inform, and the outcome was a shift in the course of history.</p> <p><strong>This is changing. It has changed.</strong> From its historical role as agent, news media has increasingly set itself up as a principal. How? Rather than informing and allowing the dice to fall as they may, the media often now enters the fray with a view on the right outcome for the dice. Most media institutions have the good sense not to include outright lies, of course. But when you have an interest in the outcome of the story rather than its capacity to inform, <strong>you end up with fiat news like <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/06/politics/donald-trump-koi-pond-japan/index.html">this</a>, where CNN intentionally cuts off a portion of the video that would ruin the <em>intent</em> of their story, </strong>which is very obviously not to inform. You end up with fiat news like <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2017/11/08/planned-execution-mexican-national-draws-international-ire/?utm_campaign=trib-social&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_content=1510203909"><strong>this</strong></a>, where you must read 7 paragraphs into a story to discover that a man being executed confessed to raping and murdering a 16-year old girl. Even <em>that</em> fact is couched in dismissive language that is very obviously intended to guide the reader to a salacious conclusion.</p> <p>It&rsquo;s not hard to come up with all sorts of explanations for why this is happening, from the consolidating ownership of media outlets, to the democratization of news via cheap internet venues that create a lowest-common-denominator effect, to the infotainment impact of always-on cable&nbsp;news. I think the root cause is more insidious. Through the feedback processes of each of those things and the resultant ways in which journalism is now taught at universities, a very significant portion of those entering the media want to Be Someone like Winston, not Jack. <strong>They are becoming journalists because they want to change the world. And so, in setting out to change the world, to borrow from the Washington Post&rsquo;s insipid masthead postscript (&ldquo;Democracy dies in darkness!&rdquo;), they cease to be a light that shines in all dark places, and become instead a hand that guides the light to only those dark places that fit their aims.</strong></p> <p>Don&rsquo;t believe me? Just take a look at these responses to a question posed by the Future Journalism Project survey from a couple years ago, which asked &ldquo;Why did you become a journalist?&rdquo;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em>&ldquo;Soon you find out that you can really make a difference.&rdquo;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>&ldquo;It can change the world.&rdquo;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>&ldquo;I&rsquo;ve always wanted to change the world.&rdquo;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>&ldquo;I developed a sense of injustice [sic] for the underdog, because the underdog, I felt, was me.&rdquo;</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>&ldquo;I learned that injustice is part of our world, but that need not be a hopeless feeling. Not when you&rsquo;re a journalist.&rdquo;</em></p> </blockquote> <p><strong>It&rsquo;s not that these are bad sentiments, or that they&rsquo;re coming from bad people.</strong> Quite the contrary. But when the institutions that are supposed to act in service to the public start taking sides in the public debate through their news practices, even if it comes from a good-hearted place, from a desire to <em>Be Someone, </em>it is a terrible thing. In the same way that our American constitutional experiment is built upon the need for the rule of law despite the theoretical existence of benevolent kings, we should demand a similar standard from our media. When the media acts as principal, they, perhaps more than any other political institution in the world, serve to strengthen the equilibrium of the Competitive Game we are in.</p> <h2><u>Whataboutism, Grand Narratives and the Hunt for Hypocrisy</u></h2> <p>The tribal layperson is guilty, too. <strong>The same competitive forces that push us into promoting our views and drowning out those we disagree with when we&rsquo;re entrusted with impartiality like the media have similar effects on us in our personal lives.</strong> After all, if we are to make ourselves and our tribe great, we can do so by defending ourselves or by tearing others down. The most common form&nbsp;<em>&mdash;</em> <em>whataboutism</em> <em>&mdash;</em> tries to do both. It&rsquo;s a major part of the hunt for hypocrisy that dominates so much of the dialogue of the Competitive Game.</p> <p><strong>The Soviets made famous and frequent use of it during the Cold War.</strong> Václav Havel characterized its most common construction as a debate between two parties:</p> <ol style="list-style-type: upper-alpha;"> <li>&nbsp;Your subway does not operate according to the timetable.</li> <li>&nbsp;Well, in your country you lynch blacks.</li> </ol> <p><strong>The basic idea is to transition the discussion of an issue that threatens one&rsquo;s tribe from a substantive one to a discussion of <em>relative credibility</em>.</strong> Sure, you may want to criticize the efficiency of our implementation of state-run, state-owned transportation, but we refuse to even broach the issue with people who still have racism in their country. Or: I don&rsquo;t need to listen to a Roy Moore argument from the party that defended Bill Clinton. In other words, the <em>tu quoque </em>fallacy has taken the place of most every form of debate that used to be common to our national politic.</p> <p>For a modern perspective, look at the below from Ben Shapiro, who I think is actually a pretty thoughtful conservative. <strong>This was his initial take on the day when the claims that Roy Moore assaulted a 14-year old girl some decades ago came to light:</strong></p> <p><img alt="" class="aligncenter wp-image-5999" src="http://epsilontheory.com/wp-content/uploads/epsilon-theory-the-two-churchills-november-20-2017-shapiro-text.jpg" style="width: 599px; height: 326px;" /></p> <p>Now, bear in mind, Shapiro followed this up with a clarifying comment asserting that Moore should step away in shame, full stop. The reality is that there are infinitely worse perpetrators. Paul Krugman, once a legitimate economist (no, really), can now be summoned by sacrificing three unblemished rabbits in a candlelit pentagram and repeatedly chanting &ldquo;tu quoque&rdquo; in monotone. But the blurb above is still fascinating <em>&mdash;</em> in one fell swoop, <strong>it accurately explains and decries the problem created by whataboutism</strong>, and in doing so uses that as an opportunity to engage in some hypothetical whataboutism of its own. <strong>This is how it works:</strong></p> <ol> <li>Someone from our Tribe does or says something dumb or evil.</li> <li>We see a narrative forming ascribing that dumb or evil thing as a trait of our Tribe.</li> <li>We are frustrated by the injustice of that, since the other Tribe is way worse on that dimension.</li> <li>Instead of disavowing that trait in our Tribe without qualification, we say, &ldquo;Well, what about them and THIS thing they did.&rdquo;</li> </ol> <p><strong>Sometimes whataboutism isn&rsquo;t just about trying to assault our opponents and weaken their credibility with outright claims of hypocrisy. </strong>Sometimes it&rsquo;s demanding that every person we debate with follow our priorities of issues, or that they follow the forms we prefer for discussing them. <strong>I think you know what I&rsquo;m talking about, because we see it all the time:</strong></p> <p><img alt="" src="http://epsilontheory.com/wp-content/uploads/epsilon-theory-the-two-churchills-november-20-2017-twitter.jpg" style="height: 312px; width: 600px;" /></p> <p>In the rare moments when our political and social dialogue isn&rsquo;t &ldquo;Well, what about what your tribe did&rdquo;, it is often &ldquo;If you said this, why didn&rsquo;t you say this?&rdquo;<strong> We are endlessly charitable in assuming that our own philosophies are consistent with our words and actions, but we fill in the gaps for others with far less kindness.</strong> If someone engaged in a Competitive Game against us doesn&rsquo;t condemn an action as quickly as they ought to, if they don&rsquo;t use the same number of exclamation marks as when they criticized someone else&rsquo;s actions a month before, if they want to discuss or write about X when <em>much bigger issue </em>Y just happened, if they don&rsquo;t balance and season every single political or social statement they make with comments on any possible related issue, we attack.</p> <p>We have no choice, we think. We were destined for this. We have to fight this battle, and we have to win, because it&rsquo;s not acceptable to be the party that is more associated with this Bad Thing. But when we see every battle as existential, when we seek to <em>purposely dominate </em>others by inserting meaning they never intended, when we search for every hint of hypocrisy to make ourselves great, to <em>Be Someone</em> in the great conversations of our time, <strong>we perpetuate the Competitive Game.</strong></p> <h2><u>&lsquo;Collective Munchausen Syndrome&rsquo;</u></h2> <p>While the ways in which the Competitive Game drives us to dominate and diminish others through language are perhaps most prevalent, <strong><em>so much of what it means to Be Someone is still locked up in identity.</em></strong> Lebanese-Canadian evolutionary behavioral scientist Gad Saad coined the above expression to describe how people in large social settings have taken to competitions in (usually imagined) victimhood. From Donald Trump complaining about #FakeNews and the mean jokes of the SNL cast, to the sorts of absurd ethnographic intersectionalist ramblings you&rsquo;ll find coming out of most sociology departments, practically everyone across the sociopolitical spectrum is in on this game. There are few behaviors which are more conducive to maintaining the strong equilibrium of our Competitive Game (and to establishing some strategic dominance within that game) than establishing the strongest victimhood credentials. The reason? Because like the other strategies here, it simultaneously argues that our voice ought to be louder and that other voices ought to be silenced completely. It is a tactic perfectly engineered for this time.</p> <p>Some will misunderstand my meaning here, I think. It would be stupid to deny that privilege, the word typically used to cast someone as an anti-victim, exists. If you can&rsquo;t accept that certain birth circumstances make your success and ease of navigating our society easier or harder, you&rsquo;re not approaching the question seriously. If you can&rsquo;t accept that certain life experiences will have similar impacts, you&rsquo;re being obtuse. But there&rsquo;s a marked difference between (1) recognizing those truly different starting places and working wherever possible to eliminate them within society, on the one hand, and (2) concluding that they constitute a system of oppression that can only be addressed by empowering those who would silence the views of any they would call privileged, on the other. The prevalence of this approach is a nightmare for any hopes of escaping the Competitive Game. The answer to this, as I argue in <a href="http://epsilontheory.com/gandalf-gza-granovetter/"><strong>Gandalf, GZA and Granovetter</strong></a>, is only for a critical mass of citizens and voters to choose to hear all voices, knowing that no individual may be reduced to her privilege or victimhood.</p> <p>We respond to symbols and events based on millions of experiences, and no one can tell us what they mean to us.</p> <h2><u>OK. So now what?</u></h2> <p>Well, in the last three notes on this topic, including this one, <strong>I&rsquo;ve written about a range of things I think we can do to hit escape velocity from the Competitive Game equilibrium.</strong></p> <ol> <li><a href="http://epsilontheory.com/before-and-after-the-storm/">We can stop treating every issue as existential.</a> (Yes, I&rsquo;m looking at you, &lsquo;But Gorsuch&rsquo; Republicans and &lsquo;Trump is the End of the Republic&rsquo; Democrats)</li> <li><a href="http://epsilontheory.com/gandalf-gza-granovetter/">We can stop telling people what they intended by their words and actions.</a></li> <li><a href="http://epsilontheory.com/gandalf-gza-granovetter/">We can stop allowing people to tell us what we intended by our words and actions.</a></li> <li>We can stop looking for hypocrisy everywhere.</li> <li>We can stop using identity to shut out opinions we don&rsquo;t like.</li> <li>We can stop abusing the trust people put in us to represent their interests by promoting our own.</li> </ol> <p>But what else?</p> <p><strong>For those of us who think about improving civic engagement, who want to be citizens, I have a humble suggestion: stop trying to be Winston Churchill.</strong> I recognize that this counsel is likely to be as popular as my advice from <a href="http://epsilontheory.com/before-and-after-the-storm/"><strong>Before and After the Storm</strong></a> (i.e. learn to lose). I&rsquo;m not saying not to be ambitious. I&rsquo;m saying that instead of identifying strategies for debate and discussion which elevate us while they demean and debase our opponents, instead of making every matter existential, instead of choosing grand rhetoric, instead be the most independent, extraordinary, true version of who you are. If you can manage to find a truly independent voice in your personal, political and financial life, pursue it with reckless abandon. Don&rsquo;t set it to the side so that you can build a brand or <em>make an impact. </em></p> <p><em><strong>Trust me. If you&rsquo;ve decided to Be Someone like Mad Jack, you&rsquo;re going to have an impact. So get your ass out of the boat, grab your bow, strap on your broadsword and sound the pipes. All that&rsquo;s left is to decide what song you&rsquo;re going to play.</strong></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="799" height="444" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20171122_chiurchill1.png?1511403400" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/two-churchills-and-worlds-collective-munchausen-syndrome#comments British Army British people Donald Trump Epsilon Fiat Automobiles France Freemen of the City of London Government of the United Kingdom Hong Kong Italy Knights of the Garter Krugman Lords Warden of the Cinque Ports May 1940 War Cabinet crisis Newspaper Norway Parliament of the United Kingdom Paul Krugman Reality The Second World War United Kingdom Winston Churchill Thu, 23 Nov 2017 10:00:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 607790 at http://www.zerohedge.com Does The CoT Structure Prohibit A Rally? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/does-cot-structure-prohibit-rally <p>&nbsp;</p> <h1><a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/does-the-cot-structure-prohibit-a-rally-craig-hemke.html"><span style="text-decoration: underline; color: #3366ff;"><em><strong>Does The CoT Structure Prohibit A Rally?</strong></em></span></a></h1> <p><a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/does-the-cot-structure-prohibit-a-rally-craig-hemke.html"><span style="text-decoration: underline; color: #3366ff;"><em><strong>Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News &amp; TF Metals Report</strong></em></span></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="post-thumbnail"> <a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/does-the-cot-structure-prohibit-a-rally-craig-hemke.html"><img src="https://sprottmoney.com/media/magpleasure/mpblog/post_thumbnail_file/e/2/cache/2/ece9a24a761836a70934a998c163f8c8/e2da095a7ab803ff01a43eb2e606b96e.jpg" alt="Does The CoT Structure Prohibit A Rally? - Craig Hemke" class="thumbnail" /></a> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">Can the Comex metals rally from here given that the CoT structure is not yet fully "washed out"? Of course they can! While it's sometimes easy and obvious to assume that rallies are imminent by the CoT structure, history shows us that a fully-washed CoT isn't imperative for a bottom and rally. </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">Let's start with an example of a full wash, rinse and spin in Comex gold. Note the all-time lows of December 2015. That's as clean and washed as you're likely ever going to see. </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <table width="906" height="184"> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">DATE</span></strong> </td> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">PRICE</span></strong> </td> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">COMMERCIAL<br /> NET SHORT<br /> </span></strong> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>12/1/15 </td> <td>$1060 </td> <td>2,911 (ALLTIME LOW) </td> </tr> <tr> <td>5/3/16 </td> <td>$1290 </td> <td>294,901 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>5/31/16 </td> <td>$1210 </td> <td>214,038 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>7/5/16 </td> <td>$1375 </td> <td>340,207 (ALLTIME HIGH) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">So, in this example, if you were waiting for a full CoT washout in May of 2016, you missed a $165 move in June. </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <table width="914" height="227"> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">DATE &nbsp;</span></strong> </td> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">PRICE &nbsp;</span></strong> </td> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">COMMERCIAL<br /> NET SHORT &nbsp;<br /> </span></strong> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>12/27/16 </td> <td>$1150 </td> <td>134,022 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>4/18/17 </td> <td>$1290 </td> <td>211,064 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>7/11/17 </td> <td>$1210 </td> <td>73,916 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>9/12/17 </td> <td>$1330 </td> <td>272,098 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>11/14/17 </td> <td>$1283 </td> <td>225,791 (range of 210,000-233,000 since 9/26/17) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">In 2017, the range of positions hasn't been as large but again, the CoT didn't need to go to net flat in July before a new rally could begin. </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">So, anyway, the moral of the story is...While we'd all like to have the CoT give us a clear indication of a bottom, it doesn't always do so. In fact, the CoT is far more useful at warning of TOPS than calling bottoms. </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">To that point, again note that THE ALLTIME HIGH in the Gold Commercial NET short position came on July 5, 2016 with price UP more than 30% from its bear market lows of just seven months earlier. Additionally, note that the price high of 2017 also came at the 2017 Commercial NET short high of 272,098. This was the highest Commercial NET short position since the CoT of October 4, 2016. And where was price then? $1280. </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">As this pertains to Comex silver, we always pay attention to the Large Spec Net Long Ratio. This is derived by dividing the Large Spec GROSS short position into the Large Spec GROSS long position. History has shown that anything below 2:1 starts to get bullish, near 3:1 is neutral and above 4:1 starts to get bearish. </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">As of last week, this ratio was 3.39:1. Some history: </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <table width="1165" height="436"> <tbody> <tr> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">DATE &nbsp;</span></strong> </td> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">PRICE &nbsp;</span></strong> </td> <td><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">LARGE<br /> SPEC NET LONG RATIO &nbsp;<br /> </span></strong> </td> </tr> <tr> <td>10/27/15 </td> <td>$16.25 </td> <td>4.19:1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>12/15/15 </td> <td>$14.05 </td> <td>1.28:1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>4/26/16 </td> <td>$17.25 </td> <td>4.75:1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>6/7/16 </td> <td>$16.50 </td> <td>2.92:1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>7/26/16 </td> <td>$20.10 </td> <td>4.62:1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>1/3/17 </td> <td>$16.10 </td> <td>3.40:1 (Note this level, date and price) </td> </tr> <tr> <td>2/28/17 </td> <td>$18.40 </td> <td>6.04:1 (ALL-TIME HIGH) </td> </tr> <tr> <td>4/18/17 </td> <td>$18.30 </td> <td>5.24:1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>7/18/17 </td> <td>$16.10<br /> off of $15.30 low </td> <td>1.12:1 (LOW SINCE 7/28/15) </td> </tr> <tr> <td>9/12/17 </td> <td>$17.90 </td> <td>3.75:1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td>10/31/17 </td> <td>$16.70 </td> <td>2.70:1 </td> </tr> <tr> <td><span lang="NL">Last week</span> </td> <td><span lang="NL">$17.0</span>7 </td> <td>3.39:1 (Note<br /> same ratio as 1/3/17) </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">Again, the <span lang="FR">point </span>of laying all of this data on you is to dispel the notion that the only time the Comex metals can rally is IF AND ONLY IF the CoT has been fully washed and rinsed. As you can see, recent history proves that this is NOT the case. That said, any rallies that DO develop from here may be somewhat limited in size, strength and duration given the CoT neutral starting point. </p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20.3333px; line-height: 17.3333px; font-family: &quot;Lucida Grande&quot;, Verdana, sans-serif;">Questions or comments about this article? Leave your thoughts <a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/does-the-cot-structure-prohibit-a-rally-craig-hemke.html"><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>HERE</strong></span></a>.</span></em></p> <p class="Body"><em style="box-sizing: border-box; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-size: 20.3333px; line-height: 17.3333px; font-family: &quot;Lucida Grande&quot;, Verdana, sans-serif;"><br /></span></em></p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <p class="Body">&nbsp;</p> <h1><a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/does-the-cot-structure-prohibit-a-rally-craig-hemke.html"><span style="text-decoration: underline; color: #3366ff;"><em><strong>Does The CoT Structure Prohibit A Rally?</strong></em></span></a></h1> <p><a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/does-the-cot-structure-prohibit-a-rally-craig-hemke.html"><span style="text-decoration: underline; color: #3366ff;"><em><strong>Written by Craig Hemke, Sprott Money News &amp; TF Metals Report</strong></em></span></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="color: #000000;">Check out these other articles by our contributors:</span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><br /></span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;">John Rubino - <a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/next-generation-crazy-the-fed-plans-for-the-coming-recession-john-rubino.html">Next Generation Crazy: The Fed Plans For The Coming Recession<br /></a></span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;">Dave Kranzler - <a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-big-money-grab-is-on-as-middle-america-collapses-dave-kranzler.html">The Big Money Grab Is "On" As Middle America Collapses</a><br /></span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;">Gary Christenson - <a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-bubbles-sp-500-and-currency-wars-gary-christenson.html">Gold, Bubbles, S&amp;P 500, and Currency Wars</a><br /></span></p> <p> <span style="color: #000000;"><a href="https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/ask-the-expert-danielle-dimartino-booth-november-2017.html">Sprott Money's Ask The Expert - Danielle DiMartino Booth<br /></a></span></p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline; color: #3366ff;"><em><strong><br /></strong></em></span></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/does-cot-structure-prohibit-rally#comments Bear Market Recession S&P 500 US Federal Reserve Thu, 23 Nov 2017 08:47:45 +0000 Sprott Money 607776 at http://www.zerohedge.com JFK Files Reveal Bobby Kennedy And CIA Plotted False Flag War With USSR http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/jfk-files-reveal-ag-robert-kennedy-and-cia-plotting-false-flag-attacks-provoke-war-u <p>False flag conspiracy theories have arisen from thousands of global tragedies ever since pirates allegedly spawned the term by flying the flag of the home country they were preparing to attack.&nbsp; <strong>Of course, these "conspiracy theories" would be far easier to discredit if they'd stop coming true...</strong></p> <p>Alas, a recently revealed document from the so-called 'JFK Files' will only serve to stoke the flames of conspiracy theorists as it very <strong>clearly confirms a plot crafted by then Attorney General Robert Kennedy and the CIA to carry out a false attack that could be pinned on the USSR and serve as a basis for a U.S. "counterattack".</strong></p> <p>According to a formerly "Top Secret" document summarizing a meeting from March 22, 1962, officials from JFK administration secretly strategized on the best way to "manufacture or acquire Soviet aircraft," including a MIG 17 or MIG 19.&nbsp; Per the following <a href="https://www.archives.gov/files/research/jfk/releases/docid-32977055.pdf">except</a>, <strong>plans ranged from building aircraft that could stand up "distant observation" or "close observation" and ranged in cost from $3.5 million to $22 million.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/11/22/2017.11.22 - JFK 1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/11/22/2017.11.22%20-%20JFK%201_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 489px;" /></a></p> <p>So what were these replica planes to be used for?&nbsp; Well, it turns out those details were laid out with some level of specificity as well...that is, if you can get beyond the brilliant efforts at redaction in the excerpt below...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>"There is a possibility that such aircraft could be used in a deception operation designed to confuse enemy planes in the air, to launch a surprise attack against enemy installation <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>or in a provocation operation in which Soviet aircraft would appear to attack U.S. or friendly installations in order to provide an excuse for U.S. intervention.</strong></span> If the planes were to be used in such covert operations, it would seem preferable to manufacture them in the United States."</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/11/22/2017.11.22 - JFK 2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/11/22/2017.11.22%20-%20JFK%202_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 189px;" /></a></p> <p>According to the <a href="http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/19/jfk-files-us-contemplated-fake-soviet-attack-to-provoke-war/">Daily Caller</a>, the meeting was held by the “Special Group (Augmented),” which according to an encyclopedia on the Central Intelligence Agency, included <strong>Attorney General Robert Kennedy, CIA Director John McCone, National Security Advisor McGeorge Bundy and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Lyman Lemnitzer.</strong> And while not members, President Kennedy and Secretary of State Dean Rusk were said to attend certain meetings as well.</p> <p>Perhaps it's time to once again reassess what you 'think' you know...</p> <p><em><strong>With that, here is the<a href="https://www.archives.gov/files/research/jfk/releases/docid-32977055.pdf"> full document</a>:</strong></em></p> <p><iframe src="https://www.scribd.com/embeds/365197353/content?start_page=1&amp;view_mode=scroll&amp;access_key=key-kMB5kOP9GFaq9xLXOak4&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="830" height="439" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017.11.22%20-%20JFK%20Tease.JPG?1511369733" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-22/jfk-files-reveal-ag-robert-kennedy-and-cia-plotting-false-flag-attacks-provoke-war-u#comments 9/11 conspiracy theories Bouvier family CAPTCHA Central Intelligence Agency Central Intelligence Agency Conspiracy theory JFK JFK administration John F. Kennedy Kennedy family Lyman Lemnitzer Massachusetts Military personnel national security Politics Robert F. Kennedy United States Thu, 23 Nov 2017 08:45:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 607764 at http://www.zerohedge.com