http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2011/10/Food%20stamps%20Aug.png/ltoddwood.com en "Costs?" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/costs <p>A funny thing happened since The US unleashed Russian-economy-crushing sanctions... the "costs" appear to have weighed down US and European stocks as Russian stocks gained?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_costs.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_costs_0.jpg" width="600" height="630" /></a></p> <p>As a reminder since the initial sanctions in March, the S&amp;P 500 is up just over 4% and Russian stocks up just over 13% - so much for Carney's "sell" order.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But Jack Lew promised:</p> <ul> <li><strong>*LEW: SANCTIONS WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON U.S. ECONOMY</strong></li> </ul> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="955" height="1003" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140801_costs.jpg?1406911298" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/costs#comments Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:47:38 +0000 Tyler Durden 492185 at http://www.zerohedge.com August 1914: When Global Stock Markets Closed http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/august-1914-when-global-stock-markets-closed <p><em>Submitted by <a href=" kharty@globalfinancialdata.com">Bryan Taylor</a>, Chief Economist of <a href="http:// www.globalfinancialdata.com">Global Financial Data</a></em><a href="http:// www.globalfinancialdata.com"></a></p> <p><strong>August 1914: When Global Stock Markets Closed</strong></p> <p>This week marks the hundredth anniversary of the beginning of World War I. On June 28, 1914, Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo. This event led to a month of failed diplomatic maneuvering between Austria-Hungary, Germany, France, Russia, and Britain which ended with the onset of the Great War, as it was originally called. <br />Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia on July 28, causing Germany and Russia to mobilize their armies on July 30. When Russia offered to negotiate rather than demobilize their army, Germany declared war on Russia on August 1. Germany declared war on France on August 3, and when Germany attacked Belgium on August 4, England declared war on Germany.&nbsp; Europe was at war, and millions would die in the battles that followed.</p> <p>The impact on global stock markets was immediate: the closure of every major European exchange and many of the exchanges outside of Europe. Although no one would have predicted this result at the beginning of July 1914, by the end of the month, European stock exchanges were making preparations for the inevitable war and its impact. </p> <p>Never before had all of Europe’s major exchanges closed simultaneously, but then again, never had such a global cataclysm struck the world.&nbsp; There had been crises before when the stock market in the United States or other countries had closed, such as the 1848 Revolution in France, or the Panic of 1873 in New York, but never had all the world’s major stock markets closed simultaneously.</p> <p><strong>Open Financial Markets Led to Closed Exchanges</strong></p> <p>Ironically, it was because of the openness of global financial markets before the war that the global closure of stock markets occurred.&nbsp; At the beginning of 1914, capital was free to flow from one country to another without hindrance.&nbsp; All the major countries of the world were on the Gold Standard, and differences in exchange rates were arbitraged through the buying and selling of international bonds listed on the world’s stock exchanges.&nbsp; A country such as Russia would issue a bond that was listed on the stock exchanges in London, New York, Paris, Berlin, Amsterdam and St. Petersburg.&nbsp; Differences in exchange rates between countries could be arbitraged by buying and selling bonds in different markets. In effect, this made European stock exchanges a single, integrated market.</p> <p>In 1914, currency flowed between countries with lightning speed.&nbsp; During the Napoleonic wars, money could only move as quickly as a ship could venture from one country to another.&nbsp; By 1914, cables stretched across the oceans of the world, and money as well as stock orders could be wired telegraphically from one corner of the world to another in minutes.</p> <p>Traders throughout the world could sell bonds and shares instantly, and it was the fear of massive selling, and the impact this would have on global markets that led to the shutdown of European exchanges.&nbsp; There was a concern that investors would try to repatriate their money leading to massive selling, a sharp fall in prices, and large amounts of capital flowing out of one country and into another.</p> <p>The impact of selling on brokers and jobbers was exacerbated by the way shares were traded on the London Stock Exchange.&nbsp; Individual trades were made on a daily basis, then carried until Settlement Day when trades were matched and crossed.&nbsp; Brokers would make up the surplus or deficit on their accounts by settling outstanding trades with cash.&nbsp; As long as there were no significant swings in stock or bond prices, brokers had sufficient capital to settle their accounts.&nbsp; However, since traders relied on credit, large swings in prices could and would bankrupt many of the brokers, worsening the financial panic. To avoid this problem, stock markets were closed until a solution could be found.</p> <p><strong>The War Drives Stock Prices Down</strong></p> <p>Of course, to investors not being able to buy or sell shares is even worse than selling them at a loss.&nbsp; Although stocks could not be traded on the main exchanges, over-the-counter markets replaced exchanges for those who were desperate enough to sell.&nbsp; </p> <p>Although the NYSE was closed between July 30 and December 12 of 1914, stocks were quoted by brokers and traded off the exchange.&nbsp; Global Financial Data has gone back and collected stock prices during the closure of the NYSE to recreate the Dow Jones Industrial Average while the NYSE was closed.&nbsp; We collected the data for the 20 stocks in the new DJIA 20 Industrials and calculated the average of the bid and ask prices from August 24, 1914 to December 12, 1914.&nbsp; This enabled us to discover that the 1914 bottom for stocks actually occurred on November 2, 1914 when the DJIA hit 49.07, over a month before the NYSE reopened.&nbsp; Few people realize that stocks in the US had already bottomed out and were heading into a new bull market when the NYSE reopened on December 12, 1914. The DJIA did not revisit this level until the Great Depression in 1932.&nbsp; </p> <p>The graph below shows how the Dow Jones Industrial Average behaved during 1914, including the period of the NYSE’s closure.&nbsp; Although the market declined with the onset of war, investors eventually realized that war in Europe would bring opportunities to American companies to sell industrial goods and war materiel. Once this fact settled in, the stock market rose steadily for the next year.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/08/DJIA1914.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/08/DJIA1914_0.jpg" width="600" height="289" /></a></p> <p>The NYSE reopened trading for bonds under restrictions on November 28th; the San Francisco Stock and Bond Exchange reopened on December 1st; and the NYSE resumed trading at pegged prices on December 12th, though the prospect of war profits soon made these restrictions irrelevant.</p> <p>As the graph below shows, the Dow Jones Industrial Average almost doubled in price in the year following its bottom in November 1914. The market paused, then had another rally into 1916 before falling back once investors realized the strong profits they had predicted from the war would not be realized.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/08/DJIA19141919.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/08/DJIA19141919_0_0.jpg" width="600" height="289" /></a></p> <p><strong>The Closure of European Exchanges</strong></p> <p>In Europe, the problem of preventing catastrophic declines in stock prices was solved by putting a floor on share prices.&nbsp; Initially, stocks and bonds were not allowed to trade below the price they had been trading at on July 31, 1914.&nbsp; The government also placed restrictions on capital, limiting or preventing large flows of capital out of the country for the remainder of the war.</p> <p>With these restrictions in place, markets reopened in Europe.&nbsp; The London Times began printing stock prices for London and Bordeaux on September 19th and for Paris on December 8, 1914.&nbsp; In January 1915, all shares were allowed to trade on the London Stock Exchange, though with price restrictions.&nbsp; The St. Petersburg exchange reopened in 1917 only to close two months later due to the Russian Revolution. The Berlin Stock Exchange did not reopen until December 1917.</p> <p>Unlike the United States, stocks on the London Stock Exchange declined in price during World War I.&nbsp; This was due not only to the decline in earnings that occurred and general selling of shares to raise capital, but just as importantly, because of the lack of new buying and the shift of capital to government war debt. British companies were allowed to issue new shares only if the issue was in the national interest, and foreign governments and companies were not allowed to issue any new shares. The British government wanted to insure that all available capital was used to fund the growing war debt.</p> <p>Most of the new bonds that listed on the London Stock Exchange were British government bonds and their share of the London Stock Exchange’s capitalization rose from 9% to 33% during the war. The performance of the London Stock Exchange between 1913 and 1919 is shown below. As can be seen, stocks lost value continually during the war, hitting their bottom only in 1918, despite the general inflation that occurred in Britain during the war, which normally would have carried prices upwards.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/08/FTASD19131919.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/08/FTASD19131919_0.jpg" width="600" height="278" /></a> <br /><strong>The Long-Term Impact of World War I</strong></p> <p>World War I destroyed the global integration of capital markets.&nbsp; The Gold Standard never returned despite attempts after the war to revive it.&nbsp; The system of issuing bonds and shares internationally failed to recover from the war, and stock exchanges listed fewer international shares. The ownership of stocks and bonds from other countries shrank dramatically.&nbsp; </p> <p>Exchanges were subjected to extensive regulation that did not exist prior to the war. Germans were not even allowed to trade on the London Stock Exchange for years after the war was over.&nbsp; London lost its place as the center of global finance during the war as its role as the center of global finance was passed on to New York.&nbsp; Nevertheless, New York was never able to take on the pivotal role in capital markets that London held prior to World War I.</p> <p>After the war was over, financial markets had to deal with the dislocations created by the war: inflation, increased government debt, reparation payments, the Russian Revolution, the creation of new countries, England’s failed attempt to return to the Gold Standard, the stock market crash of 1929, the Great Depression, debt defaults, competitive devaluations, the concentration of gold in France and the United States and a hundred other financial repercussions that resulted from World War I.</p> <p>Governments and stock exchanges did learn their lessons from World War I.&nbsp; When World War II began, the London Stock Exchange closed for only a week, and the New York Stock Exchange never closed during World War II, save for August 15th-16th, 1945 when the NYSE closed to recognize V-J Day and the end of WWII.&nbsp; The Berlin Stock Exchange remained open during World War II, though price floors and capital restrictions kept the prices of shares from falling until the devaluation of 1948.</p> <p>Although global stock markets reopened between 1914 and 1917, it wasn’t until the 1980s that the restrictions on financial markets that prevented the free flow of capital that had existed before 1914 were removed. Only after the fall of Communism did stock markets become as globally integrated as they had been before 1914. </p> <p>Though the focus of the hundredth anniversary of World War I will be on the massive destruction of World War I, the deaths of millions, and how World War I laid the foundations for World War II, the impact on stock markets and international finance should never be forgotten.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="512" height="310" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/tank_0.jpg?1406910692" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/august-1914-when-global-stock-markets-closed#comments Belgium Bond Capital Markets Dow Jones Industrial Average France Germany Great Depression Market Crash New York Stock Exchange Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:32:46 +0000 Tyler Durden 492184 at http://www.zerohedge.com BeHoLD THe GRiM MaRKeT ReaPer... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/behold-grim-market-reaper <p style="text-align: center;"><iframe src="https://www.flickr.com/photos/expd/11620735295/player/" width="408" height="1024" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p> . </p> <p style="text-align: center;">The Reaper descends from on high </p> <p style="text-align: center;">The masses see death in the sky </p> <p style="text-align: center;">They knew he was near </p> <p style="text-align: center;">But greed outweighed fear </p> <p style="text-align: center;">They blindly bought into the lie </p> <p style="text-align: center;"> The Limerick King</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/behold-grim-market-reaper#comments Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:15:53 +0000 williambanzai7 492183 at http://www.zerohedge.com And Now Facebook Is Down http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/and-now-facebook-down <p>The market may rise, fall, flash crash or be halted... and most of America, or the world wouldn't care (at least not immediately). But take away their FaceBook, and watch as the great unwashed hordes arise in a uncoordinated, global panic. </p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/08/Fb%20down.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/08/Fb%20down_0.jpg" width="600" height="122" /></a></p> <p>Will the Syrian Electronic Army be blamed for this one too?</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/and-now-facebook-down#comments Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:13:24 +0000 Tyler Durden 492182 at http://www.zerohedge.com High-Yield Credit Crashes To 6-Month Lows As Outflows Continue http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/high-yield-credit-crashes-6-month-lows-outflows-continue <p>We have been warning for a while that not only is the high-yield credit market sending a warning but that it is critical for equity investors to comprehend why this is such bad news. This week has seen exuberant equity markets start to catch down to high-yield&#39;s warning but today&#39;s <strong>surge in HY credit spreads to six month wides</strong> is a rude awakening. Between outflows, a huge wall of maturities (and no Fed liquidity), and corporate leverage, the reach-for-yield just became an up-in-quality scramble. <strong>HY spreads are over 70bps wider than cycle tights implying the S&amp;P 500 should be around 1775.</strong> <em>When the easy-money-funded buyback party ends, will you still be dancing?</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>High-yield protection is in huge demand - credit spreads surge to 6-month wides - implying a 1775 S&amp;P 500.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_HY.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_HY_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 314px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As outflows continue to rise...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/Hy%20Flows%20August%201.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/Hy%20Flows%20August%201.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 478px;" /></a></p> <p>Outflows from high yield funds and ETFs amounted to $1.69bn this week following a notable outflow of $2.46bn last week and a $1.85bn outflow in the week prior to that. <strong>The last three weeks account for the largest outflows in HY this year.</strong> The outflows are likely a result of the selloff in high yield bonds in July, as flows typically follow return.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>You were warned:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><h1 class="title"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-25/high-yield-credit-market-flashing-red-outflows-surge">High-Yield Bonds &quot;Extremely Overvalued&quot; For Longest Period Ever</a></h1> <h1 class="title">&nbsp;</h1> <h1 class="title"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-28/chart-has-high-yield-investors-running-hills">High Yield Credit Market Flashing Red As Outflows Surge</a></h1> <h1 class="title">&nbsp;</h1> <h1 class="title"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-28/chart-has-high-yield-investors-running-hills">Is This The Chart That Has High-Yield Investors Running For The Hills?</a></h1> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Between a sudden shift to a preference for &quot;strong&quot; balance sheet companies over &quot;weak&quot; balance sheet companies (the end of the dash for trash trade), and this rotation from high-yield to investment-grade, it is clear that investors are positioning defensively up-in-quality ending the constant reach-for-yield trade of the last 5 years.</p> <p><strong>Why should &#39;equity&#39; investors care?</strong> The last few years&#39; gains in stocks have been thanks massively to record amounts of buybacks (juicing EPS and also providing a non-economic bid to the market no matter what happens). This financial engineering - for even the worst of the worst credit -&nbsp; has been enabled by massive inflows into high-yield and leveraged loan funds, lowering funding costs and allowing CFOs to destroy/releverage their firms all in the goal of raising the share price.</p> <p>Simply put - equity prices <strong>cannot</strong> rally for long without the support of high-yield credit markets - never have, never will - as they are both &#39;arbitrageable&#39; bets on the same capital structure. There can be a divergence at the end of a cycle as managers get over their skis with leverage and the high yield credit market decides it has had enough risk-taking... but it only ends with equity and credit weakening together. <strong>That is the credit cycle... it cycles.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="959" height="502" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140801_HY_0.jpg?1406908932" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/high-yield-credit-crashes-6-month-lows-outflows-continue#comments Corporate Leverage Equity Markets High Yield Rude Awakening Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:05:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 492181 at http://www.zerohedge.com Lucky Charms on Wall Street http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/lucky-charms-wall-street <p><img src="https://discuss.financialjuice.com/uploads/default/2298/36ffe7d1a822a74f.jpg" style="vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px;" /></p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">As the slide starts and the stock markets open in the red on the 1st August , it’s now time to take into consideration what it is that will save you on the floor from losing the house, the wife and the kids because you didn’t know how to deal with the stock crash that’s on its way. Of course, study, research and believe that it’s a rocket science but we all know that it’s not. Create algorithms and use fancy computer programs, even pay someone to do the dirty investing for you. But, when it boils down to it, it’s lady luck that will make you a winner or a looser. And, I’m not the only one that thinks so. There are a good many people in the past that have used anything and everything they could lay their hands on to bring them luck in the financial world. Here are just a few of them.</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>The superstitious Wall Street guys</strong></p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">You wouldn’t have thought it in the digital age but there are some that are playing with the money of the rest of us on the stock markets using lucky charms and superstitious beliefs. Isn’t this supposed to be 2014?</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">There was the trader Frank ‘Tony’ Ciluffo at Steinhardt, Fine, Berkowitz that what he had for lunch had an impact on the stock market. That’s enough to give you indigestion alone, isn’t it? He had two toasted English muffins with jam for an entire year because the first day he had them he made a killing. He carried on eating them day in and day out until he’s luck bottomed out and he had to change to cream-cheese-and-olive sandwiches. Any nutritionist would be reeling by now, but investors think it’s probably good in that quirky retro way.</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Apparently, you should never sell while your stock is going over $90. There’s the common belief that if it hits $90, it will hit $100 before dropping, so you might as well stick it out and make a few more dollars for the champagne parties. There’s nothing to prove it whatsoever. But, if they are all doing it, they are all increasing the stock artificially, anyway.</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">There are those that force their traders to take female hormones because women make better decisions that are less violent which means less viable to risk (2007, Andrew Tong that filed a lawsuit against his boss Ping Jiang). But, there are also the traders that down the testosterone boosters after they hit 30 so they can keep up with the wolves that are just entering the pack. It reduces sluggish decisions and increases stamina and nerve.</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">At Murray &amp; Co there’s a trader that things that the tidier the desk he has, the more money he will make. Oh, and he never uses a red pep either, because that’ll bring bad luck and look like loss. In the real world that would be a compulsive obsession disorder, wouldn’t it? Don’t you get put under a doctor for that? But in the world of investment, it’s the norm. The mad hatters are on the inside in this story, running down a hole to catch the money at the bottom of the pit.</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Then there’s the superstitious bathroom stall at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that nobody wants to use because it leads to the trader losing money. What more can you say?</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">It has been proven by research that when there is an environment of risk, a perceived lack of control and high stakes that are in the bidding, then people resort to superstition. Superstition-induced behavior is and has always been part and parcel of the investors on Wall Street. There was even that Superstitious Fund started in 2012 by Shing Tat Chung. The idea was to get investors to put money into a portfolio that was completely generated and managed by a computer program that took into consideration only things that were related to superstitions. That means that the robot steered clear of Friday 13th and anything that had the number 13 in t, for example. Or, it bought when the new moon started but when it was full-moon time it stopped everything. 144 people invested £4828.88 and it traded on the FTSE100 for a year. Before you run out to buy the rabbit’s foot, remember that the Superstitious Fund closed down over 16%. There might be weirdoes out there with their quirks that always tie their shoe left shoelace before the right one and then think they are going to get the dollars pouring in, but remember, they are only better off until they start losing.</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">Isn’t that how banks went bankrupt, believing that they would never lose any money because they were on to a winner?</p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>Everyone wants to be a smart trader these days.</strong></p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><em>The next Friday 13th is now February 13th 2015, so you have some time to buy those shares still.</em></p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><strong>Originally Posted:&nbsp;<a href="http://discuss.financialjuice.com/t/lucky-charms-on-wall-street/623">Lucky Charms on Wall Street&nbsp;</a></strong></p> <p style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 20px; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user22400/imageroot/2013/08/ZH.png" width="300" height="150" style="max-width: 100%; height: auto; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 17.328125px;" /></p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/lucky-charms-wall-street#comments Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:04:50 +0000 Pivotfarm 492180 at http://www.zerohedge.com CDS Triggered: ISDA Confirms Argentina Credit Event Took Place http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/cds-triggered-isda-confirms-argentina-credit-event-took-place <p>Moments ago ISDA, which yesterday was queried whether a CDS-triggering credit event had taken place in Argentina, made a ruling. <a href="http://dc.isda.org/cds/argentine-republic/">Here it is:</a></p> <ul> <li><strong>The Americas [Determinations Commitee] met on August 1, 2014 and resolved that a Failure to Pay Credit Event in relation to the Argentine Republic occurred on July 30, 2014.</strong></li> </ul> <p>Surprised? Look who is on the <a href="http://dc.isda.org/about-dc-committees/current-dc-members/#Americas">ISDA Americas determinations commitee</a>:</p> <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; BlueMountain Capital Management, LLC (Second Term Non-dealer)<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; D.E. Shaw &amp; Co., L.P. (First Term Non-dealer)<br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Eaton Vance Management (First Term Non-dealer)<br /><strong>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Elliott Management Corporation (Third Term Non-dealer)</strong><br />&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Pacific Investment Management Co., LLC (Second Term Non-dealer)</p> <p>And now, we find out who is the biggest seller of Argentina CDS was. Up next: the CDS auction.</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/cds-triggered-isda-confirms-argentina-credit-event-took-place#comments CDS CDS Auction Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:00:21 +0000 Tyler Durden 492179 at http://www.zerohedge.com European Stocks Plunge Into Red For 2014, Portugal Down 10% This Week http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/european-stocks-plunge-red-2014-portugal-down-10-week <p>But but but... the crisis is over and Europe is recovering? <strong>European stocks dropped 3.2% in the last 2 days - the most in 7 months - taking the broad index into the red for 2014</strong>. Portugal (remember how BES was contained) collapsed 10.3% this week (down 26% from its highs in April) to one-year lows. <strong>Europe's VIX spiked over 20 today - its highest in over 4 months.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>European stocks are red for 2014</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_EUEOD1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_EUEOD1_0.jpg" width="600" height="315" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Portugal led the decline...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_EUEOD2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_EUEOD2_0.jpg" width="600" height="320" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Charts: Bloomberg</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="956" height="502" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140801_EUEOD1.jpg?1406907622" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/european-stocks-plunge-red-2014-portugal-down-10-week#comments Portugal Fri, 01 Aug 2014 15:40:41 +0000 Tyler Durden 492178 at http://www.zerohedge.com Judge Griesa Slams Argentina's "Misleading Statements" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/judge-griesa-slams-argentinas-misleading-statements <p>Having been abused by almost every member of Argentina's political body, Judge Griesa (presiding over the holdouts vs Argentina case) has come out swinging this morning. "What occurred this week did not extinguish or reuce the obligations of Argentina," he began, exclaiming that <strong>"public statements [from Argentina] have been highly misleading - and has to be stopped."</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As Reuters reports,</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>JUDGE GRIESA SAYS IN VIEW OF WEEK'S EVENTS ON ARGENTINE DEFAULT, MEETING TO "CLARIFY WHERE WE GO FROM HERE"</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>JUDGE GRIESA: "WHAT OCCURRED THIS WEEK <strong>DID NOT EXTINGUISH OR REDUCE THE OBLIGATIONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARGENTINA</strong>"</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>JUDGE GRIESA: "THE <strong>REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED PUBLIC STATEMENTS THAT HAVE BEEN HIGHLY MISLEADING</strong>, AND THAT HAS TO BE STOPPED"</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>JUDGE GRIESA: "IN THE FIRST PLACE, <strong>HALF-TRUTHS ARE NOT THE SAME AS THE TRUTH"</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>JUDGE GRIESA: "I AM <strong>COUNTING ON THE REPUBLIC TO TAKE STEPS TO STOP THE MISLEADING INFORMATION BEING RELEASED</strong> BY THE REPUBLIC"</p> </blockquote> <p>Objectivity?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="312" height="275" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140801_ARG.jpg?1406906876" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/judge-griesa-slams-argentinas-misleading-statements#comments default Reuters Fri, 01 Aug 2014 15:28:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 492177 at http://www.zerohedge.com Stocks Tumble To Lows As Post-Payrolls Exuberance Fades, 10Y Yield At 2.50% http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/stocks-tumble-lows-post-payrolls-exuberance-fades-10y-yield-250 <p>For all the glad-handers who said<strong> "the market seems to like it" - how do you like it now?</strong> The kneejerk jump in stocks to green on the day after payrolls (miss), spending (meet), PMI (miss), UMich confidence (down), ISM (beat), and construction spending (big miss) noise sparked algos momentum is fading fast... <strong>Treasury yields are plunging (10Y &lt; 2.5%) along with the USD Index - giving up the entire Fed move</strong>. Gold and Silver have jumped around 1%, oil is lower.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Well that didn't last long...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_oops3.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_oops3_0.jpg" width="600" height="507" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Treasury yields are tumbling... having retraced the entire post-FOMC losses</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_oops1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_oops1_0.jpg" width="600" height="317" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As is the USD Index...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_oops2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/07/20140801_oops2_0.jpg" width="600" height="317" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1030" height="871" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20140801_oops3.jpg?1406906433" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-01/stocks-tumble-lows-post-payrolls-exuberance-fades-10y-yield-250#comments Fri, 01 Aug 2014 15:20:35 +0000 Tyler Durden 492176 at http://www.zerohedge.com