http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/wp-content/plugins/uBillboard/Korean%20Buying%20Spree%20Boosts%20Brent%20Price en Laszlo Birinyi Projects S&P 3,200 Within 2 Years, Squeaks "It's All Noise, Don't Worry" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/laszlo-birinyi-projects-sp-3200-within-2-years-squeaks-its-all-noise-dont-worry <p><em><strong>"It's all noise,"</strong></em> squeaks Laszlo Birinyi, deflecting concerns about revenues, earnings, Europe, China, commodities, and rates as he unleashes his latest extrapolation. <strong><em>"If we continue to grow at 11bps per day, the S&amp;P will be at 3,200 within 2 years,"</em></strong> he warbles as he hopes his ruler - <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/article/laszlo-birinyis-2800-sp-prediction-september-14-2013">which missed its 2013 projection by 1100 points</a> - is forecasting better this time.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/d1aAqdczkOw" width="480" height="360" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Good luck with that...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_brinyi.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_brinyi_0.jpg" width="600" height="313" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This would represent a 24x multiple on Goldman Sachs' already exuberant $134 estimate for 2017 earnings. Dare we suggest that in order for the S&amp;P to reach 3,200 within 2 years, the dollar will have to collapse in a Venezuela-esque hyperinflation... </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1281" height="668" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150804_brinyi.jpg?1438705277" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/laszlo-birinyi-projects-sp-3200-within-2-years-squeaks-its-all-noise-dont-worry#comments China Hyperinflation Tue, 04 Aug 2015 16:24:19 +0000 Tyler Durden 511052 at http://www.zerohedge.com De Blasio's Keynesian Utopia: Giant Sinkhole Devours Brooklyn Intersection http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/de-blasios-keynesian-utopia-giant-sinkhole-devours-brooklyn-intersection <p>Forget the broke window fallacy, meet the broken Brooklyn utopia. We are sure Mayor De Blasio will be cock-a-hoop this morning that a<strong> giant sinkhole has appeared in one of his boroughs - swallowing an entire intersection</strong> - as what is better for the economy than filling in holes created by a total lack of infrastructure spend with other people&#39;s money...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><script type="text/javascript" charset="UTF-8" src="http://www.nbcnewyork.com/portableplayer/?cmsID=320601062&videoID=TPRsBSSiSX_e&origin=nbcnewyork.com&sec=news&subsec=local&width=600&height=360"></script></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Sinkhole-Opens-Up-Sunset-Park-Brooklyn-New-York-City-NY-320600192.html?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_NYBrand"><em>As NBC New York reports,</em></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><a href="http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Sinkhole-Opens-Up-Sunset-Park-Brooklyn-New-York-City-NY-320600192.html?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_NYBrand"><em>&nbsp;</em></a><strong>A giant sinkhole opened up in a Brooklyn intersection Tuesday morning, halting traffic on the busy roadway.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The sinkhole swallowed up most of the intersection of Fifth Avenue and 64th Street in Sunset Park at about 8 a.m., according to the Office of Emergency Management.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Traffic on Fifth Avenue, one of Sunset Park&#39;s busiest roadways, has been diverted while crews work to repair the gaping hole.</p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><strong>Welcome to De Blasio&#39;s New York... with 19 shot in Brooklyn this weekend along with an outbreak of Legionnaire&#39;s disease.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="520" height="317" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150804_onyc.jpg?1438702137" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/de-blasios-keynesian-utopia-giant-sinkhole-devours-brooklyn-intersection#comments NBC Tue, 04 Aug 2015 16:12:49 +0000 Tyler Durden 511051 at http://www.zerohedge.com Axel Merk Comes Out... As A Bear http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/axel-merk-comes-out-bear <p><a href="http://www.merkinvestments.com/insights/2015/2015-08-04.php"><em>Via Axel Merk of Merk Investments</em></a>,</p> <p>Increasingly concerned about the markets, <strong>I&rsquo;ve taken more aggressive action than in 2007, the last time I soured on the equity markets</strong>. Let me explain why and what I&rsquo;m doing to try to profit from what may lie ahead.</p> <p><a href="http://www.merkinvestments.com/insights/2015/2015-08-04.php"><img src="http://www.merkinvestments.com/images/2015/2015-08-04-yellen-bear.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>I started to get concerned about the markets in 2014, when I heard of a couple of investment advisers that increased their allocation to the stock market because they were losing clients for not keeping up with the averages.</p> <p><strong>Earlier this year, as the market kept marching upward, I decided that buying put options on equities wouldn&rsquo;t give me the kind of protection I was looking for. So I liquidated most of my equity holdings. We also shut down our equity strategy for the firm.</strong></p> <p>Of late, I&rsquo;ve taken it a step further, starting to build an outright short position on the market. In the long-run, this may be losing proposition, but right now, I am rather concerned about traditional asset allocation.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><em>Fallacy of traditional asset allocation</em></strong></span><br />The media has touted quotes of me saying things like, &quot;Investors may want to allocate at least 20% of their portfolio to alternatives [to have a meaningful impact on their portfolio].&quot;&nbsp; The context of this quote is that because many (certainly not all!) alternative investments have a lower volatility than equities, they won&rsquo;t make much of a dent on investors&rsquo; portfolios unless they represent a substantial portion of one&rsquo;s investment. Sure, I said that. And I believe in what I said. Yet, I&rsquo;m also embarrassed by it. I&rsquo;m embarrassed because while this is a perfectly fine statement in a normal market, it may be hogwash when a crash is looming. If you have a theoretical traditional &quot;60/40&quot; portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds), and we suppose stocks plunge 20% while bonds rise 2%, you have a theoretical return of -11.2%. Now let&rsquo;s suppose you add a 20% allocation of alternatives to the theoretical mix (48% stocks, 32% bonds, 20% alternatives) and let&rsquo;s suppose alternatives rise by 5%: you reduce your losses to -7.96%. But what if you don&rsquo;t really feel great about losing less than others; think the stock market will plunge by more than 20%; and that bonds won&rsquo;t provide the refuge you are looking for? What about 100% alternatives? Part of the challenge is, of course, that alternatives provide no assurance of providing 5% return or any positive return when the market crashes; in fact, many alternative investments faired poorly in 2008, as low liquidity made it difficult for investors to execute some strategies.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><em>Why? </em></strong></span><br />Scholars and pundits alike say diversification pays off in the long-run, so why should one deviate from a traditional asset allocation. So why even suggest to deviate and look for alternatives? The reason is that modern portfolio theory, the theory traditional asset allocation is based on, relies on the fact that market prices reflect rational expectations. In the opinion of your humble observer, market prices have increasingly been reflecting the perceived next move of policy makers, most notably those of central bankers. And it&rsquo;s one thing for central bankers to buy assets, in the process pushing prices higher; it&rsquo;s an entirely different story for central bankers trying to extricate themselves from what they have created, which is what we believe they may be attempting. The common theme of central bank action around the world is that risk premia have been compressed, meaning risky assets don&rsquo;t trade at much of a discount versus &quot;risk-free&quot; assets, notably:</p> <ul type="disc"> <li>Junk bonds and peripheral government bonds (bonds of Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc.) trade at a low discount versus US or German bonds; and</li> <li>Stocks have been climbing relentlessly on the backdrop of low volatility.</li> </ul> <p><strong>When volatility is low and asset prices rise, buyers are attracted that don&rsquo;t fully appreciate the underlying risks. </strong>Should volatility rise, these investors might flee their investments, saying they didn&rsquo;t sign up for this. Differently said, central banks have fostered complacency, but fear may well be coming back. At least as importantly, these assets are still risky, but have not suddenly become safe. When investors realize this, they might react violently. This can be seen most easily when darlings on Wall Street miss earnings, but might also happen when central banks change course or any currently unforeseen event changes risk appetite in the market.</p> <p><strong>Relevant with regards to my concern over a more severe correction is that it is complacency that drove the tech bubble to ever new highs in the nineties; and it was similar complacency that drove housing into the stratosphere ahead of 2008. Bubbles are created when investors have the illusion that there&rsquo;s no or little risk with the strategy they are pursuing, bidding up asset prices.</strong></p> <p><strong>Did I mention that I&rsquo;m concerned about stocks <em>and</em> bonds?</strong> That may not make sense to some, as bonds are the historic refuge when stocks tank, but just as stock and bond prices have both been rising, it is possible for both of them to fall simultaneously.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><em>Why now?</em></strong></span><br />Historically, it&rsquo;s difficult to say when markets top, when bubbles burst. In my analysis, relevant is the rise of volatility, i.e. the return of fear. With hindsight, we will attribute that fear to a specific event, but to me, it&rsquo;s secondary whether it is concerns about China, Greece, the Fed, Ebola, or what not. <strong>Remember that the market has been climbing a wall of worries? Well, similarly, the market can fall on good news or bad news. The question is what will get investors to think the glass is now half empty rather than half full.</strong></p> <p>As such, it&rsquo;s difficult to get the timing right. It was in December 1996 that former Fed Chair Greenspan warned about irrational exuberance, yet the markets continued to rally until the spring of 2000.</p> <p>I don&rsquo;t claim to have a crystal ball, either. <strong>But I do know that if we have a severe correction, I prefer to be early than late: the time to prepare one&rsquo;s portfolio for what may be ahead is <em>before</em> it happens. </strong>That&rsquo;s why I explained I&rsquo;m taking increasingly aggressive steps to protect myself, at this stage &quot;starting to build&quot; a short position. I can&rsquo;t know for certain where my analysis will take me in the future, but should the market continue to climb, I don&rsquo;t see that as a failure, but as a potential opportunity to increase my short position.</p> <p><strong>Part of the reason I&rsquo;m willing to short the market is because, aside from the potential expansion of risk premia as the Fed is trying to engineer an exit, there are other red flags that suggest to me a more pronounced downturn may come sooner rather than later:</strong></p> <ul type="disc"> <li><strong>Glass half empty.</strong> In our analysis, the market has increasingly been reacting negatively to news. We see little sign of a market climbing a wall of worries.</li> <li>In our analysis,<strong> market breadth has deteriorated</strong>. It was last in the late 90s that the Nasdaq reached new highs, but the number of shares reaching new lows on a fifty-two week basis exceeded those reaching new highs. In plain English, few stocks are driving rallies, a sign of a market that&rsquo;s tired.</li> <li><strong>Stale revenue. </strong>Too many firms, in our assessment, don&rsquo;t have revenue growth.</li> <li><strong>P/E ratios. </strong>All else equal, low interest rates warrant higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios as future earnings are discounted at a lower rate. As interest rates rise, we expect &quot;multiple compression&quot;, i.e. lower P/E ratios.</li> <li><strong>Share buybacks. </strong>Earnings per share for many businesses move higher despite stale revenue or higher costs because of share buybacks. As many firms borrow money to buy back shares, buybacks may become much less attractive as rates rise. They&rsquo;ll have the additional headwind that they&rsquo;ll then have to pay higher interest on the money they borrowed to buy back their shares.</li> <li><strong>Whisper numbers are back.</strong> Some tech stocks get burned for not making &quot;whisper numbers,&quot; i.e. elevated expectations that go beyond what analysts have forecast. Investors expect that optimistic expectations are beat, a recipe for disappointment.</li> <li><strong>The strong dollar. </strong>The strong dollar is another headwind, as well as a great excuse when companies miss earnings, masking underlying weakness.</li> <li><strong>Global slowdown</strong>. In our analysis China is slowing down; many firms that have tried to sell to the ever more affluent Chinese middle class may be facing headwinds.</li> <li><strong>Valuation. </strong>We don&rsquo;t think stocks or bonds are cheap. We list this last, as everyone has his or her own preferred measure of valuation (in bull markets, investors are very creative in how they justify valuations). All I would like to add here is that any pundit that tells you &quot;stocks can go up 10% from here&quot; has no clue what he or she is talking about â&euro;&ldquo; in my experience, that&rsquo;s what pundits say if they have stocks to sell.</li> </ul> <p>The biggest argument, and one I take very seriously, as to why none of the above means the market is going to fall is that the above points are rather obvious.<strong> The question is when will the market start to care about any or all of the above.</strong></p> <p><strong>Note that I believe the Fed will raise rates, but will &quot;remain behind the curve.&quot;</strong> That is, we believe the Fed will be rather slow in raising rates, keeping nominal rates (i.e. interest rates net of inflation) near zero, if not negative. The Fed is well aware of past &quot;temper tantrums&quot; which contributes to its reluctance to raise rates. As such, it&rsquo;s well possible that risk premia may not expand rapidly, thus keeping complacency alive and well. However, my base case scenario is that the Fed&rsquo;s gradual approach will still get risk premia to rise, thereby toppling the markets. More so, Fed Chair Yellen has not experienced a major correction as Fed Chair; as such, she may well be late to succumbing the pleas of the market to back off. <strong>But given that much of the recovery may be based on Fed induced asset price inflation, a deflating of asset prices may cause significant headwinds to economic growth</strong>. As a result, I expect volatile Fed policy going forward; a Fed insider would more likely call it &quot;fine tuning&quot; of policy rather than volatile â&euro;&ldquo; you choose.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong><em>How to profit?</em></strong></span><br />So what is one to make of this? Again, we can&rsquo;t give specific investment advice here, but I can tell you that for myself:</p> <ul type="disc"> <li>I have eliminated most of my equity exposure;</li> <li>I have started to build a short position in stocks;</li> <li>I wouldn&rsquo;t touch bonds with a broom stick;</li> <li>Aside from cash in U.S. dollar and hard currencies, I focus on alternative investments.</li> </ul> <p><strong>&nbsp;What alternatives? </strong>A commonly cited alternative is gold. The price of gold, over the long run, has had a low correlation to equities and bonds. <strong>Having said that, gold has been most out of favor. Well, that&rsquo;s part of the reason I like gold, as so many other things are in favor</strong>. As I indicated before, I don&rsquo;t expect real interest rates to move up much; it&rsquo;s high real interest rates that are the key competitor to gold. More so, our analysis suggests the dollar rally over the past year might have been extreme. In fact, I would not be surprised if, in a year from now, the U.S. would be on a flatter tightening path than some other central banks. Differently said, we see the greenback as vulnerable. Long-term, we like gold because we don&#39;t think the U.S., Europe or Japan can afford positive real interest rates a decade from now.</p> <p>Talking about out of favor stocks,<strong> I have recently bought some gold miners. </strong>Again, just like anything else in here, this isn&rsquo;t an investment recommendation. Importantly, gold miners come with their own set of risks â&euro;&ldquo; they are certainly not safe.</p> <p><strong>Beyond that, I have dedicated much of what I have available to invest to my home turf, the currency markets. </strong>The beauty of the currency market, in our assessment anyway, is that one can design a portfolio that has a low correlation to other asset classes. In a &quot;long/short&quot; currency portfolio that takes a relative position of, say, the Swedish krona versus the Euro, the returns generated are highly unlikely to be correlated to equity returns. That&rsquo;s exactly what I&rsquo;m looking for. And as the liquidity in the currency space is high, I don&rsquo;t have the same fear I would have with many other alternatives. As always, I&rsquo;m putting my money where my mouth is; amongst others, as a firm, we have built out our infrastructure, so we can offer long/short currency overlay services to institutional investors; we think that if/when markets plunge, they&rsquo;ll be scrambling to learn more about services such as the ones we have been building.</p> <p>Of course there are other alternatives. They all have their own pros and cons, they have their own risk profiles. Note that there&rsquo;s no easy answer should this analysis be right. And there&rsquo;s certainly no assurance I&rsquo;ll come out as a winner. But I firmly believe that just as former Fed Chair Bernanke talked about his toolbox, investors should consider having a toolbox.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>I&rsquo;m ready for a bear market. Are you?</strong></span></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="696" height="499" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150804_bear.jpg?1438695932" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/axel-merk-comes-out-bear#comments Bear Market Bond Central Banks China Equity Markets ETC Greece Institutional Investors Irrational Exuberance Italy Japan Market Breadth NASDAQ None Portugal Real Interest Rates recovery Volatility Tue, 04 Aug 2015 15:45:41 +0000 Tyler Durden 511050 at http://www.zerohedge.com China Is Spending 11.6 Million Annual Incomes Per Day Propping Up Stocks http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/china-spending-116-million-annual-incomes-day-propping-stocks <p><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 1.3em;">For years now China has been heralded as an economic miracle that will drive the global economy towards growth and eventually eclipse the US as THE superpower in the world.</span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>This theme was driven by the view that somehow China had obtained the magic balance between free-market capitalism and Central Planning. Globally analysts breathlessly talked about China&rsquo;s insatiable demand for commodities as its economy grew by double digits for three decades straight.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Unfortunately all of this overlooked basic common sense&hellip; that China was actually just one giant debt-fueled fraud in which the politically connected got rich skimming off the top of an endless sea of loose money funneled into dodgy investments and projects.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>For example, let&rsquo;s say that China built a city. Regardless of whether any of the buildings are ever purchased or leased, China will count the entire city in its GDP growth. As one can imagine, this has highly incentivized China&rsquo;s government to build &ldquo;bridges to nowhere&rdquo; or economic projects that are never actually used.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Indeed, at one point Chinese bureaucrats even resorted to <strong>detonating</strong> buildings for the express purpose of then building another one&hellip; all in the name of generating that magic GDP growth&hellip; and generating additional bribes and under the table deals for the officials who signed off on the projects.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Throughout this period, Chinese officials who were &ldquo;on the take&rdquo; fled the country with their bribes and Indeed, between 1991-2011, it&rsquo;s estimated that between 16,000-18,000 Chinese officials <em>fled</em> China taking 800 BILLION RMB (roughly $125 BILLION) with them. <strong>Bear in mind China&rsquo;s entire GDP was just 2.1 trillion RMB in 1991. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As the Chinese economic miracle increased in size, so did the pace of fleeing officials.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;"><em>The CDIC report, which was obtained by the Economic Observer newspaper, suggested that nearly 10,000 luxury homes had been sold by government officials in Guangzhou and Shanghai alone last year.</em></p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;"><em>It also claimed that an astonishing $1 trillion (&pound;630 billion), equivalent to 40 per cent of Britain&#39;s annual GDP, had been smuggled out of China illegally in 2012.</em></p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;"><em>Economists and experts cast doubt on the figure, but said the flow of money from China was dramatic. Li Chengyan, <strong>a professor at Peking University, suggested that a total of roughly 10,000 officials had absconded from China with as much as &pound;100 billion.</strong></em></p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;"><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9815998/Chinas-Communist-party-cadres-launch-property-fire-sale.html"><em>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9815998/Chinas-Communist-party-cadres-launch-property-fire-sale.html</em></a></p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;">&nbsp;</p> <p>To put the above numbers in perspective, this theft is equal to roughly 2% of China&rsquo;s total GDP. <strong>On a per official basis, we&rsquo;re looking at roughly $15.7 million&hellip; not over the course of a decade <u>but in ONE year</u>.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In simple terms, China&rsquo;s Government signed off on serial bubbles in shadow banking investment vehicles, real estate, and stocks because they:</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;">1)&nbsp;&nbsp; Kept the populace from rioting by creating the dream of wealth and prosperity</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;">2)&nbsp;&nbsp; Were the easiest means of getting rich for corrupt officials.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Fast forward to today and all of China&rsquo;s bubbles are imploding.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>To deal with this China has announced that it will:</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;">1)&nbsp;&nbsp; Halt all IPOs.</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;">2)&nbsp;&nbsp; Ban short-selling in some companies.</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;">3)&nbsp;&nbsp; Arrest those involved in undermining stock market stability (anyone it wants to arrest).</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;">4)&nbsp;&nbsp; Create a &ldquo;balance fund&rdquo; backed by the Central Bank, 21 brokerages and the Chinese sovereign wealth fund. The fund will be used as a kind of Plunge Protection Team for China.</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;">5)&nbsp;&nbsp; Issue a number of small bailouts of brokerages and financial firms.</p> <p>Regarding #3, yes, China is now arresting short-sellers&hellip; because somehow they are responsible for the bubble bursting. Obviously Chinese officials didn&rsquo;t pay attention to what happened to US financials back in 2008 when the SEC banned short-selling them: they rallied for about a week before they continued to fall an incredible 73%.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user20289/imageroot/2015/07/short-selling.jpg" style="width: 460px; height: 284px;" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>China also engaged its own version of the Plunge Protection Team and is now spending $29 BILLION per day to prop up its market.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;"><em>The state-owned China Securities Finance Corp. has been spending up to 180 billion yuan a day ($29 billion) to try to stabilize stocks, a person familiar with the situation said earlier this week.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;"><a href="http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-china-stocks-late-jolts-are-new-normal-1438284814">http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-china-stocks-late-jolts-are-new-normal-1438284814</a></p> <p style="margin-left:.5in;">&nbsp;</p> <p>The average income in China for a college graduate is $2,500 per year.&nbsp; So the Chinese Government is spending the equivalent of 11.6 MILLION people&rsquo;s annual incomes <strong><u>per day</u></strong><u>.</u></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Most analysts seem to think that China&rsquo;s stock market problems can be disconnected form the Chinese economy. They cannot. China&rsquo;s economy is growing at 3.5% at best and at worst is flatlining.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>According to official forecasts, China was to be responsible for 33% of global GDP growth going forward. What do you think will happen when the financial world wakes up and realizes that China is in fact imploding?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>If you&#39;ve yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a <strong>FREE</strong> investment report called the <strong><em>Financial Crisis &quot;Round Two&quot; Survival Guide </em></strong>that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>We made <u>1,000 copies</u> available for FREE the general public.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As we write this, <strong><u>there are less than 15 left.</u></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>To pick up yours, swing by&hellip;.</p> <p><a href="http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html">http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Best Regards</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Phoenix Capital Research</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/china-spending-116-million-annual-incomes-day-propping-stocks#comments China Global Economy Newspaper Real estate Shadow Banking Yuan Tue, 04 Aug 2015 15:45:12 +0000 Phoenix Capital Research 511049 at http://www.zerohedge.com Louis Farrakhan Urges Black Community To "Rise Up And Kill Those Who Kill Us" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/louis-farrakhan-urges-black-community-rise-and-kill-those-who-kill-us <p>While the US has had its share of deadly social violence over the past year, much of split along along racial lines, it has mercifully avoided a full-blown racial war. However, in recent weeks there has been a troubling increase in invocations toward even more violence, and even more deaths, which seek to achieve just that: a United States gripped in racial warfare. </p> <p>The latest such call for violence was caught on tape just a few days ago, when on July 30 during a speech delivered at Mt. Zion Baptist Church in Miami, Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan called for black Americans to "rise up" and "kill those who kill us" if the federal government fails to "intercede in our affairs."</p> <p>Follows an excerpt from his troubling sermon:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>I am looking for 10,000 in the midst of the millions, 10,000 fearless men who say death is sweeter than continued life under tyranny.&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Death is sweeter than to continue to live and bury our children while the white folks give the killer hamburgers. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Death is sweeter than watching us slaughter each other to the joy of a 400-year old enemy. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Koran teaches persecution is worse than slaughter. Then it says, retaliation is prescribed in matters of the slain. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Retaliation is a prescription from God to calm the breaths of those whose children have been slain. <strong>So if the federal government will not intercede in our affairs, then we must rise up and kill those who kill us. Stalk them and kill them and let them feel the pain of death that we are feeling</strong>." </p> </blockquote> <p>Recording below:</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Zr4bYXK7je8" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>Video of the excerpt was <a href="https://www.facebook.com/OfficialMinisterFarrakhan/videos/vb.365178373589441/845109225596351/?type=2&amp;theater">posted on Farrakhan’s Facebook page</a> Monday with the hashtag "#JusticeOrElse." So far there has been no condemnation of this open outcry to violence by anyone in the mainstream media.</p> <p><a href="http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/08/03/louis-farrakhan-if-the-federal-govt-does-not-intercede-we-must-rise-up-kill-those-who-kill-us/?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=story&amp;utm_campaign=ShareButtons">The Blaze </a>adds that Farrakhan is scheduled to speak next month in Washington, D.C., during a demonstration organized in commemoration of the 20th anniversary of his 1995 million man march. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="569" height="494" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/farakhan.jpg?1438701381" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/louis-farrakhan-urges-black-community-rise-and-kill-those-who-kill-us#comments Washington D.C. Tue, 04 Aug 2015 15:20:11 +0000 Tyler Durden 511048 at http://www.zerohedge.com AAPL Down 15% From Highs - Worst Drop In 30 Months http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/aapl-down-15-highs-worst-drop-30-months <p><strong>Apple is now down 15% from record highs</strong> as &quot;no brainer&quot; investors begin to question their faith in its China prospects. <strong>This is the biggest drop since January 2013</strong> and overall AAPL is now almost unchanged on the year...AAPL has lost $27bn market cap today.. a TWTR or a LNKD</p> <p>Biggest drop since Jan 2013...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_aapl2.jpg"><img height="453" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_aapl2_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As investors pile out post-earnings...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_aapl3.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_aapl3_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 379px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>leaving AAPL nearly unch YTD...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_aapl4.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_aapl4_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 311px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And as Nanex notes, it appears the market is about to break (again)...<br /> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p lang="en" dir="ltr">Statistical anomaly with SIP microsecond quote stamps. Something&#39;s wrong here: <a href="http://t.co/zo6WyUmoVd">pic.twitter.com/zo6WyUmoVd</a></p> <p>&mdash; Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) <a href="https://twitter.com/nanexllc/status/628580885936345088">August 4, 2015</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1371" height="866" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150804_aapl3.jpg?1438700747" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/aapl-down-15-highs-worst-drop-30-months#comments Apple China Twitter Twitter Tue, 04 Aug 2015 15:07:06 +0000 Tyler Durden 511047 at http://www.zerohedge.com Russia Ready To Send Paratroopers To Syria http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/russia-ready-send-paratroopers-syria <p>As Syria’s civil war enters its fourth year, it’s become something of an open secret that ISIS, for all their bluster and Hollywood-level video editing capabilities, are at best an unhappy side effect of efforts to train and arm the Syrian resistance and at worst, are a "strategic asset" funded and supported by coalition governments.&nbsp;</p> <p>In other words, there is indeed a geopolitical chess match going on here that will have far-reaching consequences when the blood and dust settle, but it has nothing to do with ISIS’ far-fetched quest to establish a Medieval caliphate and everything to do with installing a government in Syria that will be more friendly to the interests of the West and its Middle Eastern allies.&nbsp;</p> <p>ISIS will remain in play as long as they are necessary, but once the time comes for the US to clean up the mess left by Syria’s three-front war once and for all, that will be all she wrote for this particular CIA asset. Until then, everyone apparently gets to use Islamic State as an excuse to pursue their own political agenda, as evidenced by <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-30/real-story-behind-turkeys-us-backed-war-terror">Turkey’s new war</a> on "terrorists." Not wanting to miss an opportunity to justify what would otherwise be a rather brash declaration, Russia is reportedly ready to send in the paratroopers should Syria request Moscow’s help in battling terrorist elements. Here’s more <a href="http://tass.ru/en/russia/812480?utm_medium=twitter&amp;utm_source=ITAR-TASS">via Tass</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong><em>The Russian Airborne Troops are ready to assist Syria in countering terrorists, if such a task is set by Russia’s leaders, commander of the Airborne Troops Colonel-General Vladimir Shamanov told reporters on Tuesday.</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><em><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/07/RussianParatroopers.png" width="420" height="345" /></em></strong></p> <p><em>(USSR paratroopers ca. 1975)</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>"Of course we will execute the decisions set forth by the country’s leadership, if there is a task at hand," Shamanov said, in response to a Syrian reporter’s question about the readiness of the Russian Airborne Troops to render assistance to Syria’s government in its battle against terrorism.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Shamanov noted that Russia and Syria have "long-term good relations." "Many Syrian experts, including military, received education in the Soviet Union and in Russia," Shamanov added.</em></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/07/RussiaTroops_0.png" width="600" height="352" /><br /></em></p> </blockquote> <p>In other words, two (or three, or four) can play at the "<em>use ISIS as an excuse to go to war with our real enemies</em>" game and just like the US can send in trainers and "forward spotters" to protect its interests in Iraq, so too can Russia send in a few airborne troops to protect its interests in Damascus.&nbsp;</p> <p>It’s now only a question of political will and as <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-03/amid-escalating-violence-turkey-erdogan-says-putin-ready-give-assad">we’ve outlined</a> on a few occasions recently, it’s not entirely clear how much longer Vladimir Putin is willing to support Bashar al-Assad in the face of the debilitating, Saudi-engineered slump in crude prices and the biting economic sanctions imposed on the Kremlin by Europe.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="709" height="416" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/RussiaTroops.png?1438698755" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/russia-ready-send-paratroopers-syria#comments Crude Iraq Vladimir Putin Tue, 04 Aug 2015 14:56:06 +0000 Tyler Durden 511046 at http://www.zerohedge.com This Is Your "New Economy": These 10 Startups Are Valued At $156 Billion On $4 Billion In Revenue http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/new-economy-these-10-startups-are-valued-156-billion-4-billion-revenue <p>If one had to summarize the "new economy", which supposedly <em>this time is different </em>than the last time the US had a "new economy", in just one chart, it would be the following one which lists the 10 biggest "unicorns", or startups worth more than $1 billion, a list headed by Uber (which last week reported its latest record valuation of $51 billion, up from <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-06-06/uber-sets-valuation-record-of-17-billion-in-new-funding">$17 billion exactly one year ago</a>), and continuing with names which are more a marketing gimmick than an actual business model. </p> <p>A few quick observations: the top 10 highest valued companies have a combined private valuation of $156 billion, on just about $4 billion in revenues and employ a whopping 19.5 thousand people. </p> <p>In other words, the universe's combined historical Price/Sales ratio is 39x and each employee is worth about $8,000,000. </p> <p>Here's hoping to the absolutely astronomical growth that these privately priced to perfection companies will need in order to justify their ridiculous valuations... just as the Fed prepares to hike rates and lead to what many know, but won't admit, will be a recession in a few years (if one hasn't started already).</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/Unicorns.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/08/Unicorns_0.jpg" width="600" height="405" /></a></p> <p><em>Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/628367854610595840/photo/1">Economist</a></em><a href="https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/628367854610595840/photo/1"></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1023" height="691" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/Unicorns.jpg?1438689285" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/new-economy-these-10-startups-are-valued-156-billion-4-billion-revenue#comments new economy Recession Tue, 04 Aug 2015 14:37:31 +0000 Tyler Durden 511038 at http://www.zerohedge.com One Furious Greek Sums It All Up: "My Country & Its People Are Falling Apart" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/one-furious-greek-sums-it-all-my-country-its-people-are-falling-apart <p><a href="http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2015/08/03/my-big-fat-greek-funeral-syriza-3-bailout-and-capital-controls/?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=twitter&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+KeepTalkingGreece+%28Keep+Talking+Greece%29"><em>Submitted by KeepTalkingGreece</em></a>,</p> <p><strong>I am speechless. Not since yesterday or last week. I have been speechless since July 13th</strong> when the Greek left-wing coalition government agreed to burden the country and the people with a new loan, the third bailout for Greece since 2010 together with the strictest austerity program ever. I have been speechless ever since and for&nbsp; more than a week I thought I cannot blog anymore. I took me time to swallow and absorb the shock. And still. I am unable to deal with it.</p> <p><strong>I am unable to comprehend how a left-wing government ended up signing the worst austerity program ever.</strong> For the simple reason that if a left-wing government signs such an agreement, what should I expect from a right-wing or a neo-liberal government to do? Raid my apartment, steal my kitchen pans, my pottery cats collection and my underwear? When the left-wing government signs such an agreement, we can say that the political system in Greece is over. And there is no alternative.</p> <p>First, we <strong>blamed </strong>the creditors for wanting to crack down SYRIZA in order to avoid creating other examples of the same kind within the eurozone. Then we <strong>blamed </strong>again the creditors and specifically German finance minister Schaeuble and his Grexit plan: 5 years bailouts, 5 years temporary Grexit, before Greece could return to the markets. That was original tone by Schaeuble in 2011. Then we <strong>blamed </strong>the disagreement between the IMF and Germany in terms of &ldquo;Greek debt relief&rdquo;.&nbsp; And finally we <strong>blamed </strong>the &lsquo;dilettantism of the Greek government&rdquo; that sent to Eurogroup its economic team to explain to Greece&rsquo;s creditors, how the Eurozone should be changed. It took Varoufakis &amp; Co two months to understand that creditors are not in the mood to listen to some economic theories and revolutionary manifestos but that they simply wanted their money back.&nbsp; <strong>All our blames were right and wrong at the same time because the game was f;ixed&rsquo; form the very beginning.</strong></p> <p><strong>When the Greek team started to work on its proposals, it was too late.</strong> Schaeuble was determined to kick Greece out of the euro and furthermore to &lsquo;help it&rsquo; bridge the Grexit time with a loan of some 50 billion euros. Either way, with or without euro, with or without drachma, with or without Schaeuble or SYRIZA, the result is the same: a third bailout of 50-84 billion euro and another bailout program. There is no hope for this country, for the people &ndash; at least, for some of them.</p> <p><strong>I really don&rsquo;t care,if Varoufakis wears tasteless shirts and why he wanted to &lsquo;hack&rsquo; taxpayers&rsquo; numbers while sitting with his team of skilled hackers and childhood friends. </strong>Varoufakis is not my cup of tea. He never was. But while our Greek life is falling apart day by day, I have to read Varoufakis&rsquo; interview Nr 2034 explaining his game theory and his academic hypothesis, hi smother&rsquo;s story and his cousins pain. Frankly, my dear, I don&rsquo;t give a dam. Frankly, my dear, I&rsquo;m fed up.</p> <p><strong>I am also fed up listening to opposition lawmakers complaining </strong>about the Parliament Speaker and claiming &ldquo;Zoi Konstantopoulou is torturing MPs with her pedantism.&rdquo; I honestly don&rsquo;t give a dam. Frankly, my dear, I&rsquo;m fed up to see &lsquo;tortured&rsquo; MPs earning &euro;5,000+ per month and enjoy tax-free, while the rest of us is literally bleeding: financially, psychologically, physically and morally.</p> <p><strong>Neither do I care whether SYRIZA is falling apart, </strong>whether the Prime Minister wants early elections in September in order to secure a clear majority in Parliament so that he can pass the austerity bills that lead to nowhere.</p> <p><strong>I am deaf to government ministers and party officials and opposition lawmakers debating </strong>on whether Varoufakis should be indict for high or for low treason.</p> <p><u><em><strong>I just don&rsquo;t care. It doesn&rsquo;t affect my life, not even a tiny little bit. I give neither a a whole dam nor half of it for this so-called Greek political agenda after July 13th.</strong></em></u></p> <p><strong>What do I care about is to watch my country and the people falling into pieces</strong>. I see our Greek lives suffering another &lsquo;internal devaluation&rsquo; minute by minute, day by day, week by week. When the 3. bailout deal will be sealed by 15 or 20 August I will be also able to say &ldquo;I see our Greek lives suffering another &lsquo;internal devaluation&rsquo; minute by minute, day by day, week by week, month by month, year by year.&rdquo;</p> <p><strong>The 40% internal devaluation settled in Greece since 2010, experiences a new peak even though the 3rd bailout has not been signed yet. The Capital Controls imposed on June 29th in order to save the banks from draining, have ruined the lives of many Greeks. </strong>Friends of mine who have been working for more than two decades in private companies, were &ldquo;sent to enforced holiday&rdquo; together with the banks: their full time job turned into 1 or maximum 2 days work per week. That is 4 or 8 work days per month. In relation, their also salary plunged by end of July.&nbsp; Many employees in the private sector saw their working hours and already low salaries been reduced. How can these people get along without income? Nobody cares and nobody talks about. Neither national nor international media talk about it. We whisper these hazardous circumstances&nbsp; among ourselves. In quiet. Because we are ashamed. And we wonder endlessly.</p> <p><strong>Others, plagued by long term unemployment and no perspective to get a job or even a pension, felt obliged to sell their home. That&rsquo;s not possible under capital controls. The selling amount will remain in the bank and it may even fall victim to &ldquo;deposits haircut&rdquo; by the end of the year. </strong>Another friend who needs to sell her second flat&nbsp; &ndash; an inheritance &ndash; so that she has money to live, cannot sell it either. Ten years ago, the flat was worth 130,000 euro. Now, if she finds a buyer she will have to sell it for 45,000-50,000 euro. She is trying to sell it for the last 1.5 year. Not a single buyer came around the corner.</p> <p><u><em><strong>With the new Value Added Tax hikes, the amount we need to spend for our weekly basic groceries now extra 15-20 euro. &ldquo;Just 15 euro?&rdquo; one may ask. Yes. That&rsquo;s a huge amount, if you don&rsquo;t have it and you have kids to feed and bills to pay.</strong></em></u> The 50-euro banknote that will go for groceries will be missed at the end of the month. Bills will remain unpaid, the extra for a health emergency, for example, will simply be not there. It&rsquo;s either eat or die.</p> <p><strong>In hospitals and public health care the situation is going from worse to worst.</strong> Shortage of doctors, of nurses, of administration personnel, of material. You need a portion of fluid iron? Average waiting time is 3 days. The same for special creams, for this and that. You need some cotton? &ldquo;Oh, not so much, please, a tiny piece,&rdquo; the nurse tells you politely. Sometimes, the drugs or creams never come, you get the prescription upon exiting the hospital.</p> <p><strong>In the night shift a single nurse is in charge for 40-50 patients, </strong>even in the public hospital they proudly call &ldquo;the biggest in Greece, in the whole Balkans, indeed.&rdquo;&nbsp; Neither this nor the previous governments managed to raise the working hours of civil servants.</p> <p><strong>Patients that need night care need to hire a private nurse.</strong> They charge &euro;8.5 per hour,&nbsp; &euro;55 for six and a half hours, and one nice green 100-euro banknote on Saturdays. Union rights as before the crisis. Is this the competitiveness the Troika has been talking about? They work at fixed shifts and by the clock: 11:00 pm to 5:40 am, for example. A 24-hours care will cost you more than 200 euro, the overtime they charge is without receipt. One day, the doctor sends you home, half fixed, half broken and totally broke. Then you will need to consult another doctor and get skilled caretakers at home, all paid by your own pocket. Or lay down and die.</p> <p>A pair of low-pensioners next door with a bed-ridden and dementia-sick wife&nbsp; have been going in and out the hospitals for the last 5 months. The woman needs 24/7 care but they cannot afford neither a caretaker or even better a care home for the elderly. Their last savings were spent on private nurses when the woman was hospitalized.<strong> The man was in shock and awe when he heard that they both will have 20-euro less because of the rises in health care contributions. The man was in such a shock that he forgot to go pick up their pensions on Friday. And on Monday.</strong></p> <p><strong>And then I read about the Financial Crimes Units (SDOE) that have caught in flagranti tourism businesses with fake cash registers in Mykonos and Santorini.</strong> Cash registers that have not been registered to the tax office. The customer gets his receipt, but the businessman pockets the money without giving the state the V.A.T. or taxes. The Finance Ministry got alarmed from this new phenomenon of tax evasion by the evergreen smart &ldquo;Greeks&rdquo;.&nbsp; But &ldquo;personnel shortage&rdquo; hinders a raid to all fake cash registers&hellip; <strong>One of the fake cash registers was located in Mykonos, two in Santorini, two of the richest islands of Greece. In fact: in the richest regions of the debt-ridden country with impoverished families and ruined economy.</strong></p> <p><strong>And then, I get this damned feeling that I live on another planet in a far away universe</strong>. And I want to stay there forever. In a bubble. Away from this Greece, where half of its population starves and is in dire need and the other half, <strong>the &lsquo;clever Greeks&rsquo; keep cheating and evading taxes and enjoy a real life of fake registration and exorbitant per hour charge</strong>, away from austerity agreements, Troika&rsquo;s demands and the hateful &ldquo;Mnimonia&rdquo; (memoranda) as they take advantage of the shortages of the public system.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="175" height="152" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150804_grek1.jpg?1438693109" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/one-furious-greek-sums-it-all-my-country-its-people-are-falling-apart#comments 8.5% Creditors Eurozone fixed Germany Greece Unemployment Tue, 04 Aug 2015 14:31:55 +0000 Tyler Durden 511045 at http://www.zerohedge.com US Recession Imminent As Factory Orders Plunge For 8th Consecutive Month http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/us-recession-imminent-factory-orders-plunge-8th-consecutive-month <p><strong>For the 8th month in a row, US factory orders fell YoY</strong>. Down 6.2% in June, this is the<strong> longest streak of declining factory orders outside of a recession in history</strong>. MoM, factory orders rose 1.8% - as expected - the most since May 2014 but historical orders and shipments were revised lower. Much of the MoM gain was driven by a <strong>21% rise in defense aircraft shipments</strong>. Inventories contonue to rise leaving <strong>inventories-to-shipments ratios at cycle highs.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_bfac.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/08/20150804_bfac_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 315px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Would have been considerably worse if not for a 21% rise in Defense aircraft orders... thank the Keynesian gods for war!!!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="956" height="502" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20150804_bfac.jpg?1438697199" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-04/us-recession-imminent-factory-orders-plunge-8th-consecutive-month#comments Recession Tue, 04 Aug 2015 14:06:56 +0000 Tyler Durden 511044 at http://www.zerohedge.com