http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml/news/italy-miss-gdp-forecast-sees-sub-1-gdp-growth/%2A%7CUNSUB%7C%2A/feed en How to go From a Broken Taillight to 18 Months in Prison http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/how-go-broken-taillight-18-months-prison <p><a href="http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/how-to-go-from-a-broken-taillight-to-18-months-in-prison/">Via The Daily Bell</a></p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">It is amazing the amount of “crimes” one broken taillight precipitated.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">A recent&nbsp;<a href="http://www.gloucestertimes.com/news/local_news/appeals-court-ruling-poses-challenge-for-judges-prosecutors-in-gun/article_e74f40e6-1503-5f25-830f-3a5cc9662eea.html" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: 0px 0px; color: #0c5b3c;">court case</a>&nbsp;in Massachusetts highlights the insanity of statute law, versus common law. That is, relying on laws made by politicians, rather than assessing a claim brought by a victim.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Time, money, and freedom are all poured down the drain in favor of arbitrary statutes.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">It started with a guy being pulled over for having a taillight out.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">He was arrested for not having a license to drive a car. Already, this is a violation of rights. Why should you be forced to pay for a license in order to travel down public roads?</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Licensure does little in the way of public safety. It is a vehicle to collect more money and keep track of citizens.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">So society says it is better to kidnap a man and throw him in a cage than to allow people the freedom to travel unmolested. He victimized no one but was victimized by the state.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Next, cops saw a gun muzzle poking out of the pocket in the back seat. Apparently, seeing a bit of a gun is probable cause to search. Are guns illegal? No. Ah but again, those pesky licenses! The government requires licenses to exercise rights. You have to pay in order to be free.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">When they performed the search, which was based on the gun, which was discovered because no driver’s license, which was revealed because of the broken headlight, the police found he also had some drugs in the vehicle. Add another victimless crime to the rap sheet.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">This guy would never have been in the crosshairs of law enforcers at all, except a statute says a car must have two working taillights. Nowhere in any of this did the suspect victimize anyone.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Judges and lawyers then spent time (and thus tax dollars) arguing over things like:</p> <ul style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;"> <li style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Should he be charged with&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">another</em>&nbsp;crime, based on whether or not the gun was loaded?</li> <li style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Was there probable cause to find out if the gun was loaded?</li> <li style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Did the defendant know the gun was loaded?</li> </ul> <blockquote style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 10px 20px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; font-size: 17.5px; border-left: 5px solid #eeeeee; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">The Appeals Court decision acknowledged that “proving knowledge that a firearm was loaded will often be quite difficult,” and that the effect of the ruling will likely be that few people will be convicted under that section of the law.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">But the judges concluded that because the&nbsp;Supreme Judicial Court&nbsp;ruled in an earlier case that prosecutors must prove someone knew they were in possession of ammunition, they must also prove someone knew if that ammunition happened to be inside of a gun.</p> </blockquote> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Blah, blah blah, blah blah. Was there a victim? No? Let the guy go. That is how simple true rule of law is.</p> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Unless a law protects a victim, it creates a victim. Laws are not the same thing as the rule of law. Under rule of law, mere possession of an item would not see you imprisoned.</p> <blockquote style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 10px 20px; margin: 0px 0px 20px; font-size: 17.5px; border-left: 5px solid #eeeeee; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;"><p style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">Ninth Amendment: The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.</p> </blockquote> <p style="box-sizing: border-box; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; font-size: 16px; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px; color: #303030; font-family: Georgia, &quot;Times New Roman&quot;, Times, serif;">Of Course, the government doesn’t abide by the rights&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">enumerated</em>&nbsp;in the Constitution, let alone&nbsp;<em style="box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 24px; padding-bottom: 8px;">implied</em>&nbsp;rights.</p> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/how-go-broken-taillight-18-months-prison#comments Appeals Court Firearms Gun politics in the United States Law Law Licenses Self-defense Supreme Judicial Court United States firearms law Mon, 21 Aug 2017 17:21:47 +0000 TDB 602053 at http://www.zerohedge.com Are Markets Sleepwalking Into A Debt Ceiling Crisis: Mnuchin Issues Another Warning http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/are-markets-sleepwalking-debt-ceiling-crisis-mnuchin-issues-another-warning <p>Over the weekend, <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-20/morgan-stanley-its-almost-time-three-headed-policy-monster">Morgan Stanley reminded its clients that </a>perhaps the biggest threat facing markets over the coming weeks is the “three-headed policy monster” inside Washington: <em><strong>raising the debt ceiling, passing a budget and embarking on tax reform.</strong></em> As MS cross-asset strategist Andrew Sheets noted, "<strong>none are easy, but we see the debt ceiling as the most immediate test.</strong>"</p> <p>He then cautioned that while the most likely outcome is that, after some tension, the debt ceiling gets raised "we don’t think it will be easy, or smooth, and it may require some form of market pressure to get different sides to fall in line. I’ve spoken to investors who are comforted by FOMC transcripts from 2011 that discussed prioritization of debt payments in order to avoid default. <strong>I am not. </strong>First, I worry that this reduces the urgency of what remains a serious issue. <strong>Second, this prioritization would require delaying payments to programmes like Social Security and Medicare, with real human and economic cost. And third, while the mechanics of this prioritisation may work, it is untested in a live environment.</strong>"</p> <p>Perhaps sensing that the market is getting increasingly concerned about the potential standoff over the debt ceiling debate, which could eventually lead to a technical default, moments ago Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, speaking at an event in Louisville, said that "<strong>we need to raise the debt limit and it’s my strong preference is that there’s a clean raise of the debt limit.</strong>" </p> <p>While Mnuchin conceded that he is "all for spending controls” and Congress has the “absolute right and the absolute obligation” to oversee spending, the Treasury secretary issued another stark warning that "<strong>he’ll run out of authority by end-Sept. to stay under the debt ceiling</strong>." Said otherwise, Congress will have just days to reach a compromise on the debt ceiling when it returns from recess. </p> <p>Assuming that Mnuchin is correct, and that the D(ebt)-Day actually falls in September, that would mean that the T-Bill kink noted previously will shift forward, most likely to the last week of September. </p> <p><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/17/20170818_debt_0.jpg" width="501" height="318" /></p> <p>Potentially complicating matters is that as Morgan Stanley observed, the fact that "debt prioritization" remains an explicit option laid out by the Fed in 2011, may be just the reason why Congress will take its time, assuming that there is a loophole to a last minute deal as neither side rushes to comrpomise, which in turn could lead to the dreaded outcome, however short it may be.</p> <p>Mnuchin also added redundantly that "we can’t put the credit of the United States on the line” as reserve currency of world and major economy." This is a continuation of what Morgan Stanley said: "<em>the idea that America’s creditworthiness is beyond reproach is, without exaggeration, the cornerstone of the global fixed income market. We hope that politicians appreciate the seriousness of this issue and put politics aside to resolve it. History is watching</em>."</p> <p>History may be watching, but most markets so far are not? </p> <p>Recall that when it comes to discounting any potential complications over the coming debt ceiling showdown, US T-Bills have been well ahead of the broader "Wall of Worry", as shown both above and in the charts below.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/bill%20dislocations.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/bill%20dislocations_0.jpg" width="500" height="216" /></a></p> <p>Indeed, the dislocation in front-end rates deemed “at risk” given the likely timing of any missed or delayed payment should persist right up until there is a resolution, with the pricing of risk becoming more pronounced the longer there is inaction. But when will remaining asset classes follow and start selling off on fears that an 11th hour solution won't be reached? </p> <p>Judging by historical examples, "<strong>it is not unusual for equity markets to be comparatively sanguine until it is within the month of the deadline"</strong>, according to Deutsche Bank. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>In 2011, the VIX oscillated somewhat in the months ahead (with modest rises at a roughly similar lead to the debt ceiling deadline as the current rise in vol), but the meaningful move higher did not come until about a week prior to the eventual resolution</strong>. In 2013 (when the debt ceiling deadline coincided with a government shutdown), the larger pop in equity vol occurred about three weeks before, peaking about a week prior to the resolution. It has not been uncommon to see some degree of equity drawdown about two months ahead of the debt ceiling deadline, <strong>with another more muted sell-off arising alongside with the aforementioned rise in volatility, though through this lens the evidence is perhaps somewhat less conclusive.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/debt%20ceiling%20DB.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/debt%20ceiling%20DB_0.jpg" width="500" height="217" /></a></p> <p>In other words, while the market has shown remarkable complacency so far and stayed stoically sanguine about the late September debt ceiling fireworks, this may change very soon. Deutsche Bank's conclusion:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>September presents itself as a possibly pivotal month during which Congress must pass a new budget and raise the debt ceiling and the Fed may still yet press ahead and announce the start balance sheet normalization. </strong>It would seem that if the Fed declines to acknowledge the possibility that more pervasive inflation weakness may warrant a pause, and <strong>political gridlock persists, dragging negotiations to the brink, the type of self-reinforcing vol spike and risk-off may not be far off.</strong></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1135" height="493" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/debt%20ceiling%20DB.jpg?1503335472" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/are-markets-sleepwalking-debt-ceiling-crisis-mnuchin-issues-another-warning#comments Business Congress Debt Ceiling default Deutsche Bank Economy Economy of the United States Equity Markets Finance fixed Medicare Medicare Morgan Stanley National debt of the United States None Reserve Currency Steven Mnuchin Stock market crashes United States debt ceiling United States debt-ceiling crisis US Federal Reserve Volatility Wall of Worry Mon, 21 Aug 2017 17:21:38 +0000 Tyler Durden 602052 at http://www.zerohedge.com Tesla Stock Slumps After "Terrible Bond" New Issue Tanks http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/tesla-stock-slumps-after-terrible-bond-new-issue-tanks <p>Tesla stock prices has almost erased all of its post-earnings gains as the company&#39;s<strong> recently issued $1.8 billion junk bond is tumbling</strong>...</p> <p>TSLA stocks is giving back its <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-04/tesla-ignores-q2-record-cash-burn-and-slashes-its-model-x-and-model-s-prices"><strong>post-record-cash-burn gains</strong></a>...</p> <p><img height="319" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_TSLA3_0.jpg" width="600" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>As the newly issued junk bonds are suddenly coming face to face with this ugliness...</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/tesla%20cash%20burn%20q2.jpg"><img height="388" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/07/20/tesla%20cash%20burn%20q2_0.jpg" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/teslas-junk-bond-issue-is-already-trading-underwater-and-investors-arent-happy-2017-08-19?siteid=rss&amp;rss=1">As MarketWatch reports,</a> <em><strong>the 5.3% notes due 2025 are now trading as high as 5.75% yield (with the risk spread blowing out from 330 to around 370bps)</strong></em></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_TSLA1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_TSLA1_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 315px;" /></a></p> <p id=":xt.ma" title="August 21, 2017 at 9:45:16 AM UTC-7"><span dir="ltr" id=":xt.co">AllianceBernstein&rsquo;s Distenfeld said investors are still starving for income in a low-interest rate, low-yielding world, and said it is important to be patient -- and disciplined -- in this market.</span></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p title="August 21, 2017 at 9:45:16 AM UTC-7"><span dir="ltr">&ldquo;Tesla was an aggressive deal for a company that is not expected to be cash-flow positive for years,&rdquo; said Gershon Distenfeld, head of credit at asset manager AllianceBernstein.</span></p> <p title="August 21, 2017 at 9:45:16 AM UTC-7">&nbsp;</p> <p><span dir="ltr"><strong>&nbsp;&ldquo;At just over 5%, it is not a great risk return,&rdquo; </strong>he said.</span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span dir="ltr"><strong>&ldquo;There are companies coming to market that shouldn&rsquo;t be issuing at all, so you have to watch out,&rdquo;</strong> he said. </span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span dir="ltr">&ldquo;The same is happening in the bank loan market, people are afraid of rising rates and enamored of floating-rate debt, so underwriting quality is changing.&rdquo;</span></p> </blockquote> <p><span dir="ltr">This seemed to sum things up perfectly though...</span></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><span dir="ltr">&ldquo;Anyone who looks at a lot of high-yield bonds would expect more robust protection against future debt,&rdquo; Valerie Potenza, head of high-yield research at Xtract Research, a sister company of Debtwire, told MarketWatch ahead of the sale. </span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><u><em><strong><span dir="ltr">&ldquo;We think it&rsquo;s a terrible bond, but people seem blinded by the Tesla story.&rdquo;</span></strong></em></u></p> </blockquote> <div>&nbsp;</div> <p>Blinded indeed...</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1180" height="619" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170821_TSLA1.jpg?1503334493" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/tesla-stock-slumps-after-terrible-bond-new-issue-tanks#comments AllianceBernstein Bond Bond Business Debt Debtwire Economy Finance Financial markets Fixed income analysis High-yield debt Interest rate Mathematical finance Money United States housing bubble Yield Mon, 21 Aug 2017 17:05:46 +0000 Tyler Durden 602051 at http://www.zerohedge.com Watch Live: Today's Once-In-A-Century Solar Eclipse http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/watch-live-todays-once-century-solar-eclipse <p>Experiencing a total solar eclipse is rare. And a solar eclipse that emcompasses the entire Continental US is even more rare. <em>Which is why people from across the US will take a break from work and school and go outside for a glimpse of a total eclipse that&#39;s expected to last just two minutes and 40 seconds.</em></p> <p><strong>The eclipse is expected to make landfall near Depoe Bay, Oregon at 10:15 local time and it will eventually pass into the Atlantic Ocean in South Carolina around 3 p.m. Eastern Time. <em>Anyone who misses out on this year&#39;s eclipse will have to wait seven years until the next one in April 2024.</em></strong></p> <p>In total, the moon will cast its shadow over the U.S. just a little longer than the duration of a feature movie, 1h and 33 minutes.</p> <p>Observers outside the direct path of the total eclipse will still see a partial eclipse, where the moon covers just part of the sun. The next total eclipse over parts of North America won&#39;t be witnessed until April 2024, then crossing from the south west, from Mexico, to the north east, towards Canada.</p> <p><strong><u>Luckily, for those chained to their desks, NASA has several livefeeds that will be monitoring the eclipse as it crosses the US.</u></strong></p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/wwMDvPCGeE0" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>According to <a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/10759/a-total-eclipse-is-a-rare-event/">Statista</a>, the last eclipse to touch any part of the US occurred in July 1991, with only Hawaii experiencing it. The experience for locals was hampered by poor weather. <strong>But today&rsquo;s event is even more rare, Statista explains, because it will cross the US from the Pacific to the Atlantic coast &ndash; the first to do so since 1918.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;The last total eclipse within the contiguous 48 United States occurred on February 26, 1979.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The &quot;cosmic ballet&quot; today is going to be the first one since 1918 where the path of darkness will cross the Pacific and Atlantic coasts as well as the first that will make landfall exclusively in the U.S. since independence in 1776.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>The eclipse&rsquo;s 70-mile wide path of totality, an area where the moon will completel block out the Sun, plunging the area into darkness for a few minutes, doesn&rsquo;t pass through any major US cities. <strong>However, nearly 200 million Americans live within a day&rsquo;s drive of the eclipse, so towns and national parks in the 12 states within the path are bracing for a massive influx of visitors.</strong></p> <p><a href="https://www.statista.com/chart/10759/a-total-eclipse-is-a-rare-event/" title="Infographic: A Total Eclipse Is A Rare Event | Statista"><img alt="Infographic: A Total Eclipse Is A Rare Event | Statista" src="https://infographic.statista.com/normal/chartoftheday_10759_a_total_eclipse_is_a_rare_event_n.jpg" style="height: 399px; width: 560px;" /></a></p> <p><em>You will find more statistics at <a href="https://www.statista.com/">Statista</a></em></p> <p>Not sure when to start watching? <strong>Check out the eclipse timeline below:</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_solar1.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_solar1_0.jpg" style="width: 560px; height: 313px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1453" height="608" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170821_solar2.jpg?1503329800" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/watch-live-todays-once-century-solar-eclipse#comments Astronomy Eclipses Mexico National Aeronautics and Space Administration Science Solar eclipse Solar eclipse of April 8 Solar eclipse of August 21 Solar eclipse of July 22 South Carolina Sun Time Mon, 21 Aug 2017 17:05:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 602043 at http://www.zerohedge.com 10 Inconvenient Truths About Investing & The Markets http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/10-inconvenient-truths-about-investing-markets <p><a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/10-illustrated-truths-about-investing-the-markets/"><em>Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,</em></a></p> <p>This morning, as I was catching up on my reading, I stumbled onto this gem from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/robinhood-cofounder-baiju-bhatt-interview-2017-8" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>&nbsp;of an interview with the founder of Robinhood, a mobile app to let individuals trade stocks with no commissions.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s [Robinhood Gold] serving a need that we saw in a part of our core user base, which includes people using Robinhood for the first time as well as those who have been with us since the beginning. <strong>A really large percentage of those users have become more mature investors. The No. 1 thing they kept asking for was <span style="color: #ff0000;">the ability to use a margin feature.</span></strong>&ldquo;</em></p> </blockquote> <p>With margin debt levels at already record high levels, the demand by individuals to leverage themselves into the financial markets has always, without exception, ended extremely poorly. <strong>Since the vast majority of users of the Robinhood app have never seen a bear market, the real lessons of trading have yet to be learned.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>It also brings me to today&rsquo;s post.</p> <p>One of the first rules that any successful long-term trader or investor will tell you is to keep a written record of your activities. <strong>This provides the basis for you to learn what you are doing right, but more importantly what you are doing wrong.</strong> The secret to investment success is actually quite simple and can be summed up as follows:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><span style="color: #993300;"><strong>&ldquo;Do more of what works and less of what doesn&rsquo;t.&rdquo;</strong></span> <span style="color: #993300;">&ndash; Dennis Gartman</span></em></p> </blockquote> <p>As I was reviewing some old trading notebooks this past weekend, a folder sheet of paper fell out of one of my 2011 binders. It was a printout of the <em>&ldquo;20-Truths Of Investing And The Markets&rdquo;</em> by&nbsp;Ivan Hoff of Ivan Hoff Capital.</p> <p>I wanted to share my 10-favorites with you by adding some illustrations as well.</p> <hr /> <h3><strong>1. Stock prices run in cycles. Periods of re-pricing are usually quick and powerful.</strong></h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-Asymmetric-Bubbles-081917.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22913" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-Asymmetric-Bubbles-081917.png" style="width: 600px; height: 556px;" /></a></p> <p><span style="color: #ff0000;"><strong>Read:</strong></span><strong> <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/soros-a-rudimentary-theory-of-bubbles/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Soros &ndash; A Rudimentary Theory Of Bubbles</a></strong></p> <h3><strong>2</strong>. Stocks are very highly correlated during drastic sell offs and during the initial stage of the recovery. <strong>In general, correlation is high during bear markets.</strong></h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Sector-Performance-Comparison-081917.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22914" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Sector-Performance-Comparison-081917.png" style="width: 599px; height: 265px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Read:</span> <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-i-bought-it-for-the-dividend/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">I Bought It For The Dividend</a></strong></p> <h3><strong>3.</strong> <strong>Try to trade in the direction of the trend.</strong> It is not only the path of least resistance, but also provides the best profit opportunities. Have a simple method to define the direction of the trend.</h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-Deviation-36MA-081917.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22915" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-Deviation-36MA-081917.png" style="width: 600px; height: 358px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Read:</span> <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-managing-a-trend-change/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Managing A Trend Change</a></strong></p> <h3><strong>4. Being wrong is not a choice. Staying wrong is.</strong></h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/MathOfLoss-022017.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-19636" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/MathOfLoss-022017.png" style="width: 600px; height: 260px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Read:</span> <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/you-cant-time-the-market/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">You Can&rsquo;t Time The Market?</a></strong></p> <h3><strong>5. The overall market conditions will never be perfect and when they seem so it is probably a good idea to decrease exposure and take profits.</strong> <span style="color: #993300;">With that in mind, you don&rsquo;t have to be in the market all the time.</span> When you don&rsquo;t see good setups, it just makes sense to watch from the sidelines.</h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Market-Fear-Greed-Index-072817.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22545" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Market-Fear-Greed-Index-072817.png" style="width: 601px; height: 397px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Read: <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/7-myths-of-investing/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">7-Myths Of Investing</a></span></strong></p> <h3><strong>6</strong>. If you understand the incentives of the major market participants, you will be able to predict their likely behavior.<strong> Technical analysis is a lot about understanding incentives and recognizing intentions.</strong></h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-21-34-Wk-MA-XVER-081917.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22917" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-21-34-Wk-MA-XVER-081917.png" style="width: 600px; height: 276px;" /></a></p> <p><strong>Read: <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/7-trading-rules-you-wont-follow/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">7-Trading Rules You Won&rsquo;t Follow</a></strong></p> <h3><strong>7. <span style="color: #800000;">Your first loss will often be your best loss.</span></strong> No one is right all the time and you don&rsquo;t have to be. There are market participants that are immensely profitable <strong>by being right only 30% of the time.</strong> <span style="color: #800000;">It is good to have conviction in your investment thesis, <strong>but discipline should always trump conviction.</strong></span></h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-2008-Psychology-081917.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22918" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-2008-Psychology-081917.png" style="width: 601px; height: 253px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Read:</span> <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-psychology-of-loss/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The Psychology Of Loss</a></strong></p> <h3><strong>8.<span style="color: #993300;"> Optimism and pessimism in the stock market are contagious.</span></strong> Investor psychology often loses its logic and become emotional. The news media and the most recent price action play a particularly important role in developing moods of mass optimism or pessimism.</h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Investor-Psychology-SP500-050917-2.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22919" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Investor-Psychology-SP500-050917-2.png" style="width: 600px; height: 290px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Read:</span> <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/5-universal-laws-of-human-investment-stupidity/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">5-Universal Laws Of Human (Investment) Stupidity</a></strong></p> <h3><strong>9. <span style="color: #993300;">Rising P/E is an indicator of rising expectations and confidence in the future of the stock</span>.</strong> The P/E ratio reflects the enthusiastic optimism, or the gloomy pessimism of investors.</h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-PE-Real-081917.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-22920" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/SP500-PE-Real-081917.png" style="width: 600px; height: 379px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Read:</span> <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-valuation-measures-forward-returns/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">Valuation Measures And Forward Returns</a></strong></p> <h3><strong>10. It doesn&rsquo;t matter how smart you are, how ingenious your idea is or how cheap your stock is &ndash; <span style="color: #993300;">if the market does not agree with you, you will not get paid. Period.</span></strong></h3> <p><a href="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/SP500-Time-To-Breakeven-1990-070217.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-21787" src="http://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/SP500-Time-To-Breakeven-1990-070217.png" style="width: 599px; height: 368px;" /></a></p> <p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Read:</span> <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-lie-of-market-indexes/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">The Big Lie Of Market Indexes</a></strong></p> <p>These are just reminders to keep you grounded in the reality of <a href="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/13-truths-about-how-money-really-works/" rel="noopener" target="_blank">how money, and investing, REALLY work</a> over the long-term. While it is easy to get lost in the excitement of the moment, the brutal return to reality has always been a costly lesson to re-learn.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="598" height="264" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170821_RIA_0.jpg?1503325965" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/10-inconvenient-truths-about-investing-markets#comments Bear Market Big Lie Of Market Business Dennis Gartman Market Conditions Price Action Reality recovery Robinhood Markets Technical Analysis The Big Lie Mon, 21 Aug 2017 16:43:19 +0000 Tyler Durden 602030 at http://www.zerohedge.com US Navy Halts Pacific Fleet Operations As Historical Path Of Collided Warship Emerges http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/us-navy-halts-pacific-fleet-operations-historical-path-collided-warship-emerges <p>Following the second collision of US warships in two months, the US Navy's Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) has calling for a comprehensive review of recent incidents in the Pacific in the wake of the USS John McCain collision with an oil tanker early Monday morning. In a video, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. John Richardson called for an "operational pause" with commands and leaders across the fleet, and a deeper look into the training and certification of forces operating in&nbsp; the Navy's 7th Fleet - those in and around Japan. </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BREAKING?src=hash">#BREAKING</a>: Statement from <a href="https://twitter.com/CNORichardson">@CNORichardson</a> on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/USSJohnSMcCain?src=hash">#USSJohnSMcCain</a> collision. Operational pause and comprehensive reviewed directed. <a href="https://t.co/OQFy0RGEAu">pic.twitter.com/OQFy0RGEAu</a></p> <p>— U.S. Navy (@USNavy) <a href="https://twitter.com/USNavy/status/899647899264483328">August 21, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js"></script><p>"I have directed fleet commanders to immediately conduct an operational pause with commands and leaders across the fleet, to ensure we are taking all appropriate immediate measures to enhance the Navy's safe and effective operation around the world.... This is the second major collision in the last three months, and is the latest in a series of major incidents, particularly in the Pacific theater," said Richardson. "This trend demands more forceful action."</p> <p>That review "will examine the process by which we train and certify our forward deployed forces in Japan to be ready for operations and war," according to Richardson. "This will include, but not be limited to, trends in operational tempo, performance, maintenance, equipment and personnel. It will also focus on surface warfare training and career development, including tactical and navigational proficiency."</p> <p>According to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/after-warship-collision-navy-calls-for-review-of-incidents-in-the-pacific/">CBS</a>, the investigative team will be diverse, including people from across the Navy (both officer and enlisted), and experts from outside the Navy and the private sector.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/gettyimages-836198322.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/gettyimages-836198322_0.jpg" width="500" height="333" /></a></p> <p>As <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/photos-videos-damaged-uss-john-mccain-emerge">shown earlier</a>, the USS John S. McCain suffered extensive hull damage after colliding with the oil/chemical tanker called the Alnic MC. Five sailors were injured and another 10 remain missing.</p> <p><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/WUoWPpgexK4?rel=0" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>Richardson noted that the review, led by Adm. Phil Davidson, Commander of the U.S. Fleet Forces Command, will be on a "tight timeline" in order to address the problems and "quickly make corrective actions."</p> <p>Earlier at a briefing in Amman, Jordan, Defense Secretary James Mattis offered his thoughts and prayers to the sailors and families of those on board the USS John McCain, saying an investigation is currently underway to determine what exactly happened and caused the crash.&nbsp; Mattis added the CNO's broader investigation will put together an inquiry into all related accidents incidents at sea to address all existing factors, including the USS Fitzgerald.</p> <p>“He has put together a broader inquiry to look into these incidents and to determine any of the causal factors to determine what’s going on,” Defense Secretary James Mattis told reporters while traveling in Amman, Jordan.</p> <p>Meanwhile, courtesy of Bloomberg, the historical movement of both the USS John S. McCain and the Alnic MC tanker was revealed, swowing both the path of both ships as they ultimately collided just east of Singapore.</p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/20170821_tanker1.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/20170821_tanker1_0.jpg" width="500" height="276" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/20170821_tanker.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/20170821_tanker_0.jpg" width="500" height="276" /></a></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/20170821_tanker2.jpg"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/20170821_tanker2_0.jpg" width="500" height="275" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="512" height="282" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/20170821_tanker2.jpg?1503332836" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/us-navy-halts-pacific-fleet-operations-historical-path-collided-warship-emerges#comments Arleigh Burke-class destroyers Carrier Strike Group Twelve James Mattis Japan John McCain John McCain Military Military brats Military personnel navy Recipients of the Legion of Merit Twitter Twitter U.S. Fleet Forces Command United States United States Navy United States Navy USS Fitzgerald USS Porter Mon, 21 Aug 2017 16:27:18 +0000 Tyler Durden 602046 at http://www.zerohedge.com Big Oil Nervous As Venezuela's Maduro Seizes More Power http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/big-oil-nervous-venezuelas-maduro-seizes-more-power <p><a href="http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Big-Oil-Nervous-As-Venezuelas-Maduro-Seizes-More-Power.html"><em>Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,</em></a></p> <p>The pro-government constitutional assembly loyal to Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/pro-government-assembly-venezuela-takes-congress-powers-49296146">seized the powers</a> of the opposition-led congress today, in <strong>a move that necessarily has Big Oil nervous that Trump will make good on his economic sanctions threat.</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_maduro.jpg"><strong><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/08/19/20170821_maduro.jpg" style="width: 558px; height: 272px;" /></strong></a></p> <p><strong>Maduro&rsquo;s bold political move on Friday means further intensifies the dramatic decline of democracy</strong> that led Trump last week to threaten economic sanctions that could remove Venezuelan oil from the U.S. refining market.</p> <p>It also comes right after Trump indicated that a &lsquo;military option&rsquo; was not off the table.</p> <p><strong>The government has accused opposition leaders of conspiring with Washington to overthrow Maduro.&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>As Venezuela disintegrates politically and economically, big oil is stepping in to urge Washington to refrain from resorting to economic sanctions against the country, the third-largest supplier to the U.S.</p> <p><strong>U.S. energy giants rely heavily on trade with Venezuela</strong> - home to the world&rsquo;s largest oil reserves - and the Trump administration&rsquo;s move last week to sanction eight top Venezuelan officials coupled with talk of country-level economic sanctions could negatively affect U.S. refineries, and drive up gas prices.</p> <p><strong>Everyone from Chevron and Phillips 66 to Valero and Citgo - among others - process heavy crude oil from Venezuela along the U.S. Gulf Coast. </strong>It would be <a href="http://www.texasmonthly.com/energy/big-oil-urges-trump-not-levy-economic-sanctions-venezuela/">prohibitively expensive</a> to replace Venezuela&rsquo;s specific heavy crude with an alternative, as nearly two dozen major U.S. refineries are set up only to process this type of crude. Canada, Mexico and Colombia also provide heavy crude, but volumes are not considered to be high enough to replace Venezuelan. Saudi Arabia heavy crude would have to serve as a replacement, but a costly one.</p> <p><u><strong>Meanwhile, the letters of protest continue to find their way to the White House.</strong></u> Two letters pleading Trump to forego economic sanctions have been sent by the American Fuel &amp; Petrochemicals Manufacturers advocacy group, of which Chevron is a member.</p> <p>A third letter of appeal came from a group of lawmakers led by Texas Republican congressman Randy Weber.</p> <p><strong>The letter noted that while the group respected the efforts to deal with the &ldquo;disturbing decline of democracy&rdquo; in Venezuela, sanctions could end up losing Americans 525,000 refining-related jobs along the Gulf Coast.</strong></p> <p>International oil companies are said to be pulling staff out of Venezuela, especially after the end-July vote that Maduro orchestrated.&nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p>Repsol has recently pulled all of its foreign workers from Venezuela, Statoil has pulled out its expatriate staff, while Chevron and Total SA have withdrawn a small number of employees, according to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/repsol-is-said-to-pull-foreign-oilfield-workers-out-of-venezuela">Bloomberg</a>.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="558" height="272" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/20170821_maduro.jpg?1503325128" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/big-oil-nervous-venezuelas-maduro-seizes-more-power#comments 2014–17 Venezuelan protests Americas Citgo Crude Crude Oil Gulf Coast Mexico Nicolás Maduro Petroleum Politics Politics of Venezuela Saudi Arabia Trump Administration U.S. Gulf Coast U.S. U.S. United States–Venezuela relations Venezuela White House White House World World oil market chronology Mon, 21 Aug 2017 16:12:08 +0000 Tyler Durden 602036 at http://www.zerohedge.com Ray Dalio's Gravest Warning Yet: "I Am Tactically Reducing Risk... This Is Broadly Similar To 1937" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/ray-dalios-gravest-warning-yet-i-am-tactically-reducing-risk-broadly-similar-1937 <p>Two weeks <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-10/ray-dalio-two-potential-crises-buy-gold-case-things-go-badly">after Ray Dalio warned in his latest letter to Bridgewater clients</a> that the right trade in the current environment is to buy gold in case <strong>"things go badly", </strong>the head of the world's biggest hedge fund is out with his gravest warning yet, saying that he is "concerned about growing internal and external conflict leading to impaired government efficiency." In his LinkedIn post, he writes that he "continues to closely watch how conflict is being handled a guide, <strong>and I’m not encouraged.”</strong> </p> <p>Echoing a <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-19/lord-rothschild-share-prices-are-unprecedented-levels-not-time-add-risk">similar warning issued </a>just days ago from perhaps the most prominent name in all of finance, Lord Jacob Rothschild, the head of the world's biggest hedge fund says that “<strong>conflicts have now intensified to the point that fighting to the death is probably more likely than reconciliation" </strong>and in a stark comparison to the days prior to World War II, observes that "<strong>politics will probably play a greater role in affecting markets than we have experienced any time before in our lifetimes but in a manner that is broadly similar to 1937</strong>." </p> <p>Basically, Ray Dalio just compared the current political environment to the days just prior to the outbreak of World War II. That is probably not a coincidence. </p> <p><em>His full <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/principles-divide-us-might-greater-than-those-bind-together-ray-dalio">LinkedIn note:</a></em><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/principles-divide-us-might-greater-than-those-bind-together-ray-dalio"></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>I believe that a) most realities happen over and over again in slightly different forms, b) good principles are effective ways of dealing with one's realities, and c) <span style="text-decoration: underline;">politics will probably play a greater role in affecting markets than we have experienced any time before in our lifetimes but in a manner that is broadly similar to 1937. </span></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I'm essentially an economic mechanic who focuses on how reality works by studying the cause:effect relations and how they played out in history to help me bet on what's likely to occur. For reasons previously explained in "Populism..." it seems to me that we are now economically and socially divided and burdened in ways that are broadly analogous to 1937. During such times conflicts (both internal and external) increase, populism emerges, democracies are threatened and wars can occur. I can't say how bad this time around will get. I'm watching how conflict is being handled as a guide, and I'm not encouraged. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>History has shown that democracies are healthy when the principles that bind people are stronger than those that divide them, when the rule of law governs disputes, and when compromises are made for the good of the whole --- and that democracies are threatened when the principles that divide people are more strongly held than those that bind them and when divided people are more inclined to fight than work to resolve their differences. <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Conflicts have now intensified to the point that fighting to the death is probably more likely than reconciliation.</strong></span> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Average numbers hide the depths of the divisions. For example, by looking at average figures, one might conclude that the United States economy is doing just fine, yet when one looks at the numbers that comprise those averages, it's clear that some are doing extraordinarily well and others are doing terribly, with gaps in wealth and income being the greatest since the 1930s. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Largely as a function of these economic differences and differences in the principles that people believe most deeply in, we are seeing large and increasingly firm political differences, which are apparent only by looking below the averages. For example, Donald Trump's approval rating of 35% is a result of 79% support among Republicans and 7% among Democrats (Gallop). Of those who approve of President Donald Trump, 61% say they can't think of anything Trump could do that would make them disapprove of his job as President, and 57% who disapprove of Trump say they are never going to change their minds on the President's job performance (Monmouth). Similarly 40% of those polled (PRRI) would favor Donald Trump’s impeachment, which consists of 72% of Democrats and 7% of Republicans, and most of them won't change their minds. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>In other words, the majority of Americans appear to be strongly and intransigently in disagreement about our leadership and the direction of our country. They appear more inclined to fight for what they believe than to try to figure out how to get beyond their disagreements to work productively based on shared principles. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So, where does that leave us? </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>While I see no important economic risks on the horizon, I am concerned about growing internal and external conflict leading to impaired government efficiency (e.g. inabilities to pass legislation and set policies) and other conflicts. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>I of course hope that the principles that bind us together are stronger than the ones that divide us. I believe that this is a time when it is especially important for us a) to be explicit about what our principles are in order to be clear about what we agree and disagree on, b) to practice the art of thoughtful disagreement, and c) to respect our ways of getting past our disagreements so we can start rowing in the same direction. <strong>I believe that how well this is done will have a greater effect on the economy, markets and our overall well-being than classic monetary and fiscal policies, so I continue to closely watch how conflict is handled while tactically reducing our risk to it not being handled well.</strong></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="700" height="394" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/dalio_0.jpg?1503326728" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/ray-dalios-gravest-warning-yet-i-am-tactically-reducing-risk-broadly-similar-1937#comments American people of German descent B+ Bridgewater Business Climate change skepticism and denial Donald Trump Donald Trump Politics Politics of the United States Ray Dalio Reality Reason The Apprentice United States WWE Hall of Fame Mon, 21 Aug 2017 15:58:37 +0000 Tyler Durden 602038 at http://www.zerohedge.com One Statistics Professor Was Just Banned By Google: Here Is His Story http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/one-statistics-professor-was-just-banned-google-here-his-story <p>Statistics professor Salil Mehta, adjunct professor at <a href="http://sps.columbia.edu/applied-analytics/master-of-science-in-applied-analytics/faculty/salil-mehta">Columbia </a>and <a href="https://scs.georgetown.edu/programs/375/certificate-in-data-science/faculty-bio/4120790/salil-mehta">Georgetown </a>who teaches probability and data science and whose work has appeared on this website on <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-25/dow-hits-20k-best-day-7-weeks-investors-dump-dollars-bonds-protection">numerous </a><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-14/active-managers-underperformance-one-130000-years-event">prior</a> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/08/21/secret-service-cant-pay-agents-because-trumps-frequent-travel-large-family/529075001/">occasions</a>, was banned by Google on Friday.</p> <p>What did Salil do to provoke Google? It is not entirely clear, however what is clear is that his repeated attempts at restoring his email, blog and other Google-linked accounts have so far been rejected with a blanket and uniform statement from the search giant.</p> <p><em>Here is what happened, in Salil Mehta&#39;s own words.</em></p> <p><strong>Don</strong><strong>&rsquo;</strong><strong>t do a googol of evil</strong></p> <p>Freedom is not free unless corporations who exert a large influence in our lives believe in our well-being.&nbsp; I am a statistics professor and understand that there needs to be reasonable standards to control a large social network and make sure everyone is able to enjoy it freely.&nbsp; Invariably people disagree (we all see this), but some principles, such as simply showing probability and statistics with the sole hope of educating others, should be acceptable and in the middle of the distribution.&nbsp; I am for a higher standard, and a higher purpose.&nbsp; There is great care that I have taken to make sure that people treat one other well, admit faults, and present math and probability education to a wide audience.</p> <p><strong>On Friday afternoon East Coast Time by surprise, I was completely shut down in all my Google accounts (all of my gmail accounts, blog, all of my university pages that were on google sites, etc.) for no reason and no warning.&nbsp; </strong>A number of us were stunned and unsure, but clearly we know at this point it wasn&rsquo;t an accident.&nbsp; Here are some examples commented from best-selling author Nassim Taleb, and they have been retweeted by government officials, and the NYT and WSJ journalists.&nbsp;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Even his email was disabled by Google. <a href="https://t.co/Zj9g9MpKzr">https://t.co/Zj9g9MpKzr</a></p> <p>&mdash; NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) <a href="https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/898851771384176640">August 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><p><span id="cke_bm_565S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_566S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_567S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_571S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_572S" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_572E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><strong>My ads-free blog itself is a probability theory site, with 27 million reads and has somewhere near 150k overall followers.</strong>&nbsp;<span id="cke_bm_567E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span><span id="cke_bm_566E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span> <span id="cke_bm_565E" style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span>It&rsquo;s been read by Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, Nobel Laureates, multiple governments, celebrity athletes around the world, deans of many universities (on the syllabi of same), and a number of TV news anchors.&nbsp; So it&rsquo;s been a great boon for Google to be noticed so kindly by essentially a charitable site promoting math education.&nbsp;<strong> What great people from all corners of the world and at all levels who can enjoy Google, until it suddenly died Friday afternoon.</strong></p> <p>My background is clean, and without a political or social agenda.&nbsp; I am not promoting any specific viewpoint.&nbsp; I teach probability math and that&rsquo;s it.&nbsp; Have worked with both the Obama administration and advised on polling statistics for the Trump campaign, am an adjunct professor at three top universities, an editor of the peer-reviewed journal of the American Statistical Association, and wrote a best-selling statistics book (all the proceeds of which I gave to charity!) <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Statistics-Topics-Salil-Mehta/dp/1499273533">https://www.amazon.com/Statistics-Topics-Salil-Mehta/dp/1499273533</a></p> <p>The NYT has a popular print article this weekend and they cited my Google blog, but alas it not links to an embarrassing malfunction, for many to see: <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/19/business/the-stock-market-has-been-magical-it-cant-last.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/19/business/the-stock-market-has-been-magical-it-cant-last.html</a></p> <p>This doesn&rsquo;t look good.&nbsp; <strong>Now instead of mathematics, reporters have turned to this latest circus nightmare from Google as an example of how they are compounding bad decisions on good people anywhere and at any time.&nbsp; </strong></p> <p>Can they not differentiate me from an evil person?&nbsp; Can they not see the large and reputable people and institutions that have relied on my work?&nbsp; Do they have better people who can coach them on how to make decisions with much better taste and finesse?&nbsp; What&rsquo;s next, all CEOs and professors and politicians are going to be shut down from social media whenever it is least expected?&nbsp; Overnight hi-tech lynching squads are a thing of the past.&nbsp; We can&rsquo;t have kangaroo courts and hope to lead with moral authority.</p> <p>There is a lot of energy being spent right now thinking about how this happens to your best customers, just like that.&nbsp; <strong>Fear is running wild about who is next and on what other social media platforms</strong>.&nbsp; Have used Google for 11 years with no issue.&nbsp; Have driven enormous free traffic to your products and properties.&nbsp; But now that&rsquo;s been severely damaged as the trust/reputational value has been crushed, and I have to re-emerge quickly elsewhere and deal with this fall-out.&nbsp; I have many students, family, coworkers, etc who typically send me e-mails each day and all of it is vanishing with a kicked-back &ldquo;user doesn&rsquo;t exist&rdquo; error.&nbsp; And that&rsquo;s totally unacceptable.&nbsp; Through my many companies have business accounts on different social media and have no issue getting a marketing line, but one needs to know who they are dealing with and not treat them this badly.&nbsp; <strong>The wrongs here are not being done by me.</strong></p> <p>Again, a math site.&nbsp; An academic site that you can see from the various header tabs of the archives (<a href="http://web.archive.org/web/20170518181653/http:/statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2012/11/statistical-ideas-website.html">http://web.archive.org/web/20170518181653/http://statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2012/11/statistical-ideas-website.html</a>).&nbsp; These are applications of formulas and shouldn&rsquo;t be subject of limitations of free speech.&nbsp; A lot of great people like it.&nbsp; Hopefully Google needs to take huge step back and reexamine what went wrong and how the product could be better for others going forward, so that they and all of us grow well.&nbsp; People&rsquo;s faith in democracy is on the line.&nbsp; Faith that technology companies are looking out for our good first.</p> <p>I have followed their common &ldquo;appeal&rdquo; form but no response for three days.&nbsp; Also connected with one of the VPs over the weekend and it still takes time until receiving this today!&nbsp; Just more of a reflection of how cold a company can treat someone very poorly: without any information, and lack of ability to move forward in their life (can I get real reasons if any, can I get advance notice, can I get my contact list back from gmail, and why are university properties unrelated to my blog shut down?)&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>We are going to be looking back on this time in Google&rsquo;s history and those of other social media and know that they have done some very immoral and confusing things, and it has hurt their public reputation with decent people who wanted to grow into the next future with them</strong></p> <p><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/google%20bar.jpg"><img alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/08/12/google%20bar_0.jpg" style="width: 600px; height: 341px;" /></a></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="520" height="368" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/mehta%20teaser.jpg?1503330663" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/one-statistics-professor-was-just-banned-google-here-his-story#comments Alphabet Inc. American Statistical Association Computing Cross-platform software Digital media ETC Gmail Google Google Google China html Nassim Taleb Obama Administration Obama administration Privacy concerns regarding Google Social media Warren Buffett Web applications Webmail World Wide Web Mon, 21 Aug 2017 15:53:22 +0000 Tyler Durden 602045 at http://www.zerohedge.com Why Gold's Rally to $1299.70 Today May End Ugly Tomorrow http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/why-golds-rally-129970-today-may-end-ugly-tomorrow <h3>Pray for Rain?</h3> <ul> <li>Gold has profit taking above</li> <li>There is a gap &nbsp;below that 'needs to be tested' for increased likelihood of a sustainable rally.</li> <li>Short term the market is overbought, and Friday's buyers &nbsp;are &nbsp;out of the money already</li> </ul> <p><em>via <a href="https://www.marketslant.com/user/soren-kgroup">Soren K Group </a>posted originally on <a href="https://www.marketslant.com/">Marketslant.com</a></em></p> <p>Ideally, over the next 3-5 days: we wanted to see Gold fill the Comex gap underneath, and in the process shaking out some weak longs and luring&nbsp;some shorts&nbsp;to pile in. First&nbsp;touching the $1285&nbsp;area, close with&nbsp;a positive settlement on a lower day. Then we could see a nice &nbsp;orderly rally out of a bull flag. But so far that is not the case. Instead we have more buying at the&nbsp;top end of a range that has earmarkings of Friday's behavior. </p> <p>The sellers right here are commercials and large funds taking profits. And the sellers' stops to buy back are much higher (if they exist at all), than the stop-losses placed underneath from this headline-chasing momentum fund buying. Can we continue &nbsp;higher despite our "perfect" scenario. Sure. Guys like<a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/ray-dalios-gravest-warning-yet-i-am-tactically-reducing-risk-broadly-similar-1937"> Ray Dalio are showing no signs of back-tracking on their "risk-off"</a> stances. But we are not buying here. We want the hot money to short Gold, not get long. And guys like Dalio are longer term traders with deeper pockets and more apt to tell us they've changed their risk-off and sold their Gold after the fact. </p> <p>George Gero describes&nbsp;Gold nicely without judgment before the open:</p> <p><em>Today gold is steady ahead of &nbsp;summit of bankers including&nbsp;Chair Yellen, ECB Draghi and many more all of which may keep market watchers with one eye on headlines. Keep the other eye on open interest, more new longs..&nbsp;Gold over 508,734 as we mentioned Friday on cnbc, copper 329335, silver 191783,and gold options on futures 1,144,348, <strong>all these indicate asset allocations returning to metals again</strong>. Stocks iffy and more political, geo political headlines await as we look for more 1300 area to come. </em></p> <p>Gold is higher today, and that for us is unhealthy. It&nbsp;is the increase in OI that worries us. It is the momentum funds looking for more $1300 and buying based on headlines of:</p> <p>&nbsp;<em>$1300 GOLD YAYYYYY! BUY IT NOW &nbsp;BECAUSE YOU WONT GET A CHANCE TO EVER AGAIN</em><strong>&nbsp;</strong>that scare&nbsp;us. Friday's rally brought new longs. Activity and info confirmed for us asset allocators bidding, but momentum funds chasing the price.</p> <p>And based on that day's&nbsp;close, some of them finished out of the money.<strong> If we do not&nbsp;close higher today, they may bail given their&nbsp;gnat-like tolerance in metals.</strong>&nbsp;Traders with a 6 month horizon may find themselves annoyed by the funds with a 6 minute horizon right here, right now.</p> <p>We fear the&nbsp;supernova spike/reversal right here and feel the market is much more likely to extend higher on a more sustainable basis if it consolidates a bit here and takes out some weak longs.&nbsp;We prefer&nbsp;the market establish a base here. Higher now without closing above Friday's high means the likelihood of &nbsp;a significant sell off in 3 days increases.&nbsp;<strong>That fear would ratchet up &nbsp;MORE if we took out Friday's &nbsp;high today&nbsp;but closed lower than the day's VWAP&nbsp;</strong></p> <p>via Vince Lanci:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The question is, do you want a $10 rally today, or a $35 rally over the&nbsp;next 3 weeks? &nbsp;Its a matter of perspective and time frame. But less upside volatility now means more upside later. Better&nbsp;someone sell it in the hole this week than momentum funds trample each other getting in today.</p> </blockquote> <p>The caveat as Michael Moor noted to us today is 'Longs should&nbsp;not want to trade below $1282.90 intraday.'</p> <p>This is consistent with our Bull flag hopes. A&nbsp;break below that would almost certainly negate a flag formation and thus bullish sentiment.</p> <p>Gold for December delivery is trading $1297.00 as we write &nbsp;this, up $5.40 on the day</p> <p>SPOT GOLD 1 MINUTE CHART</p> <p><span class="cke_widget_wrapper cke_widget_inline cke_widget_image cke_image_nocaption cke_widget_selected"><span class="cke_reset cke_widget_drag_handler_container" style="background: rgba(220,220,220,0.5); background-image: url(https://www.marketslant.com/core/assets/vendor/ckeditor/plugins/widget/images/handle.png);"><img src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user238352/imageroot/2017/08/21/622.PNG" width="958" height="566" /></span><span class="cke_image_resizer" title="Click and drag to resize">?</span></span></p> <p>Real time interactive charts <a href="http://www.kitco.com/Gold-price-today-USA/">HERE</a></p> <p>There is a gap on Comex charts between $1286.20 and $1283.50. The smackdown was expected on first penetration of $1300. The market may linger&nbsp;between the gap and recent highs &nbsp;for 3 to 5 days&nbsp;creating a bull flag base for a higher push. Our opinion is that unless Gold penetrates $1314 rallies should be sold to book profits during this time.&nbsp;</p> <p>Alternatively, shorting rallies this week might be a good intraday play to capture&nbsp;swings as the market gyrates&nbsp;&nbsp;between the gap and new high.&nbsp;Separately, and not necessarily at odds with our analysis, Michael Moor would prefer the gap be tested sooner rather than later in his summary below</p> <p>We can see bitcoin profits being taken while hot money is buying Gold with that&nbsp;same manic ajax-snorting expectation of profits. And we do not&nbsp;like &nbsp;it.&nbsp;</p> <p>As long as the market is between $1284 and $1306, we see rallies as a sale, and selloffs as a buy for the next 3 days. Sell it now if &nbsp;you are booking profits. Then hope it breaks $1314 and&nbsp;buy back in.-&nbsp;&nbsp;Soren K.</p> <h2>Moor Analytics</h2> <p><strong>emphasis ours</strong>- Soren K.</p> <p><strong><em>Analysis written by&nbsp;<a href="moormoormichael@aol.com">Michael Moor</a>&nbsp;</em></strong></p> <p dir="ltr"><img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/ESLzbxs-RTCW_DtxxvWCDXd5LKo9fI2cqlciX3fg5qBWZJ6z12IurAVer4--Uu8VERo1JEigpzfZpB1Tj9_RnRoCY8kmP-AnWdZgCoZDnHxM__7PFPqKw_4C3uey5E2pzOOtk5ATonk-3P-WlQ" width="682" height="380" /></p> <p dir="ltr">Gold (Z) 8/18/17</p> <p dir="ltr">On a macro basis: &nbsp;&nbsp;The maintained gap higher on 7/18 left a medium term bullish reversal intact below that warned of higher trade for days. &nbsp;We have seen $67.8 of this so far from (Q) into (Z) with a roughly $7 spread differential. &nbsp;The solid penetration above 12417-21 warned of solid short covering in the days/weeks ahead, with a good likelihood of a run back up toward 12980 (+). &nbsp;We have seen $63.8 of this so far, taking out 12980 on 8/11.</p> <p dir="ltr">On a shorter-term basis: &nbsp;&nbsp;The maintained gap higher yesterday left the short term bullish reversal warned about below, which warned of decent higher trade. We have seen $11.5 of this before backing off the high. &nbsp;Decent intra-day trade below 12829 will negate this definitively. &nbsp;Although this has not been negated, I warned to be out of longs for the time being if we broke back below the 12978-88 and 12954-60 areas, below which I would look for decent profit taking to come in—we have seen $6.3 of this so far. &nbsp;<strong>If we leave a maintained gap lower intact above on Monday, this will leave a short term bearish reversal intact that will warn of decent lower trade, likely for days. </strong>&nbsp;Decent trade below 12801 (+ 1 tic (10 cents) per/hour starting at 6:00pm Sunday) will project this downward $28 minimum, $34 (+) maximum based off a ‘well formed’ formation; but if we break below here decently and back above decently, look for decent short covering to come in.—likely back toward 12980 (+). &nbsp;&nbsp;</p> <p dir="ltr">All inquiries for Moor Analytic's Professional&nbsp;research in the&nbsp;Gold and Energy markets please use contact info below</p> <ul dir="ltr"> <li>Email:&nbsp;<a href="moormoormichael@aol.com">Michael Moor</a></li> <li>Phone:&nbsp;<a href="tel:%28646%29%20708-4612">646-708-4612</a></li> </ul> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-blog"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_blog" width="958" height="566" alt="" src="http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user238352/imageroot/622.PNG?1503329841" /> </div> </div> </div> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-21/why-golds-rally-129970-today-may-end-ugly-tomorrow#comments Ajax Bitcoin Copper Day trading European Central Bank Finance Financial economics Futures contract Gap headlines Money Ray Dalio Share trading Volatility Mon, 21 Aug 2017 15:40:14 +0000 Vince Lanci 602044 at http://www.zerohedge.com