en Peak Oil 'Demand' & The Duelling Narratives Of Energy Inventories <p>Crude oil inventories in the U.S. have fallen 23.9 million barrels since the end of April, but, as Bloomberg notes, oil bulls counting on further declines are fighting history. <strong>Over the past five years refiners&#39; crude demand has fallen an average of 1.2 million barrels a day from the peak in July to the low in October.</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img height="299" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;&quot;The rough part will be once refineries start going into maintenance,&quot; said Rob Haworth, a senior investment strategist in Seattle at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. <strong><em>&quot;We aren&rsquo;t drawing down inventories very fast and the pressure on prices will increase.&quot;</em></strong></p> <p>But, as <a href="">Alhambra Investment Partner&#39;s jeffrey Snider notes,</a><em><strong> the significance of crude and gasoline inventory (and price) changes is the difference in narratives and what is supporting them. </strong></em></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>While there is a direct relationship between the steepness of contango in the oil futures curve and the amount of crude siphoned from the market to storage, it is not an immediate one.</strong> When crude prices originally collapsed starting in late 2014, twisting the WTI curve from backwardation to so far permanent contango (of varying degrees), it wasn&rsquo;t until January 2015 that domestic inventories began their surge. And while oil prices rose through spring, flattening out again the futures curve and drastically reducing that contango, the spike in oil stocks didn&rsquo;t actually end until almost the end of last April.</span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>Given the &ldquo;dollar&rsquo;s&rdquo; <a href="">explicit seasonality</a>, combined with the usual intra-year swings of crude itself, it isn&rsquo;t surprising to find the process repeated almost exactly a year later. </strong>This time it happened in two separate events, the latter of which was a near replica of the start to 2015. The futures curve was pressed into deep contango after October 2015, and sure enough oil inventories spiked again in early January 2016. And like last year, though the futures curve would begin to flatten out again starting February 12, oil storage levels continued to build until the end of April.</span></p> <p><img alt="ABOOK July 2016 WTI Oil Inventory" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-39462" height="361" src="" width="641" /></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;">In the latest weekly update from the US EIA, reported crude stocks have fallen again for the ninth consecutive week (and 10 out of the last 11). Last year, starting at the same week, inventories fell for eight straight weeks and 13 out of 15 until mid-August. <strong>The shift back toward contango in the WTI curve this year also hasn&rsquo;t yet forced its way into crude inventories, and if last year&rsquo;s conditions still apply, as it appears they do, then we shouldn&rsquo;t expect that to occur until August or perhaps September (whatever natural crude seasonality).</strong></span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><u><strong>Instead, it is gasoline inventories that are somewhat concerning at the moment. </strong></u>Gasoline stocks remain hugely elevated but in the past few weeks they have increased again perhaps &ldquo;early&rdquo; in comparison to the usual seasonal pattern. The summer &ldquo;driving season&rdquo; typically finds gasoline inventories falling from levels built up in the winter. This year compared to 2015 finds not only higher overall inventories but a possible suggestion of unseasonably high levels on top of it.</span></p> <p><img alt="ABOOK July 2016 WTI Gas Inventory Last 2" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-39460" height="361" src="" width="641" /></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;">It is difficult to say whether there is any significance in the difference as analyzing seasonality in gasoline or crude is an inexact art, to put it mildly. At the very least, however, <strong>the continued high level of gasoline inventory in potentially significant seasonal deviation suggests the very real possibility that (economic) demand remains unusually soft over and above the &ldquo;rising dollar&rsquo;s&rdquo; already soft demand.</strong></span></p> <p><img alt="ABOOK July 2016 WTI Oil Gasoline Inventory to Oct" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-39458" height="361" src="" width="641" /></p> <p><img alt="ABOOK July 2016 WTI Gas Inventory" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-39461" height="361" src="" width="641" /></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><strong>The imbalance may correct itself over the coming weeks, or it may continue to suggest more sluggishness where there isn&rsquo;t supposed to be any. </strong>While waiting on crude oil inventory to start reflecting contango in the WTI curve, this might be the only current fundamental element to weigh on crude prices as the futures curve continues to sink.</span></p> <p><img alt="ABOOK July 2016 WTI July" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-39464" height="341" src="" width="641" /></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;">The front month contract rolled forward to September 2016 as August came off the board, so there is some calendar roll to factor in the chart above that can be visually misleading. In other words, the drop in the curve isn&rsquo;t as sharp in the past two days as it might appear. But it is still falling with more action at the front, and the steepening since June 8 is still increasing.</span></p> <p><span style="color: #000000;"><u><strong>The significance of crude and gasoline is the difference in narratives and what is supporting them. </strong></u>Stock prices at record highs, or near them, is likely being driven by renewed hope for monetary policy wherever it may strike, all the while forgetting how patently ineffective past monetary policy has been. The energy sector and the renewed drop in the futures curve (the whole curve, though more so at the front) is remembering the consequences of monetary policy that doesn&rsquo;t work while at the same time finding still little evidence that anything has changed (and some evidence that if something has changed it is only further in the &ldquo;wrong&rdquo; direction). <em><u><strong>Stocks once more trading, though <a href="">much less enthusiastically</a>, on what &ldquo;should be&rdquo;; energy trading on what actually is. All that is also a replay of last year, specifically last July.</strong></u></em></span></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="965" height="481" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Backwardation Contango Crude Crude Oil Monetary Policy Sun, 24 Jul 2016 20:45:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 567001 at With Italy's Bank Stress Test "A Near-Term Risk", Who Is Most Exposed? <p>With the S&amp;P500's relentless surge, once which even Goldman is no longer able <a href="">to contain its amazement at what it has dubbed </a>an unprecedented multiple expansion (the other two times that saw a comparable increase in forward multiples ended with the Black Monday crash of 1987 and the 2000 dot com crash, respectively), it appears as if nothing matters: fundamentals, technicals, geopolitics, or frankly any newsflow aside from what central banks may (or may not) do in the near future. Still, as Deutsche Bank reminds us, one key risk-event is coming up in the form of the European Banking Authority’s stress test results that will be released on July 29 which "present another near-term risk to markets." </p> <p>As Italy's <a href="">Il Sole 24 reported earlier today</a>, Monte dei Paschi capital is most “at risk” in the stress tests, citing preliminary indications of tests that will be released on July 29.&nbsp; Perhaps in an attempt to difuse fears of upcoming bank failures, the paper reported that the other 4 Italian banks - Intesa, Banco Popolare, UBI, UniCredit - "show resilient capital level under stressed scenario."</p> <p>It's a different issue entirely whether markets will believe the story, especially since over the past month, there has been a focus on Italian banks as DB's Dominic Konstam puts it. </p> <p>But while we are confident that any European stress test will be a joke (as they have been in the past, some riotously so) inquiring minds wonder who is most at risk... just in case the ECB decides that it is finally time for some "contagion." DB conveniently answers:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>As of the end of March 2016, international exposure to the Italian banking sector was $90 billion, according to BIS data. This amount represents a reduction from $120 billion at the end of 2014 and is drastically lower compared to the $300 billion of total exposure in 2008. By country, the amount of exposure to Italian banks owned by the US is just 20%, or $18 billion. France, Germany and Spain own another 60% of that risk, totaling $56 billion. <strong>When public and private non-bank sectors are included, aggregate risk to Italy as a whole owned by rest of the world is $660 billion, with nearly half of that amount being concentrated in France.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="223" /></a></p> <p>In other words, after a several years' hiatus, should Italy "contage" shortly, attention may very soon shift to France once again...</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="473" height="350" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bank Failures BIS Central Banks Deutsche Bank France Germany Italy Stress Test Sun, 24 Jul 2016 20:18:20 +0000 Tyler Durden 567009 at DNC Chair Wasserman Schultz Announces Resignation Following Wikileaks Revelations, Will Join Clinton Campaign <p><em><strong>Update 1</strong></em>: In a quite shocking<em> &#39;beyond caring what the average joe thinks&#39;</em> move, Hillary Clinton just announced that <strong>Debbie Wasserman Schultz will serve as an honorary chair on Clinton&#39;s campaign</strong>.</p> <p>Hillary<strong> Clinton is thanking her &quot;longtime friend&quot; Debbie Wasserman Schultz</strong> after the Florida congresswoman&#39;s decision to step down as chair of the Democratic National Committee.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;I am grateful to Debbie for getting the Democratic Party to this year&#39;s historic convention in Philadelphia, and<strong> I know that this week&#39;s events will be a success thanks to her hard work and leadership,&quot; </strong>she said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><strong>&quot;There&#39;s simply no one better at taking the fight to the Republicans than Debbie--which is why I am glad that she has agreed to serve as honorary chair of my campaign&#39;s 50-state program to gain ground and elect Democrats in every part of the country, and will continue to serve as a surrogate for my campaign nationally, in Florida, and in other key states.&quot;</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p><a href="">As ABC reports</a>, Clinton responded after Wasserman Schultz agreed to step down as chair at the end of this week&#39;s Democratic National Convention.<strong>The move came after the publication last week of some 19,000 hacked emails, some of which suggested the DNC was favoring Clinton during the primary season.</strong></p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>As we detailed earlier, it seem Bernie Sanders has the last laugh, following a CNN report that his archnesmsis, <strong>Debbie Wasserman Schultz, is resigning as chair at the end of the Democratic National Convention</strong>. The DNC&#39;s official statement makes no mention of her involvement in smears and collusion exposed by the Wikileaks emails.</p> <p>As The Washington Post reports, <strong>she had faced growing pressure to resign Sunday in the aftermath of the release of thousands of embarrassing internal email exchanges</strong> among Democratic officials, an episode that has pitched the party into turmoil on the eve of a convention that was promised to showcase unity.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>&quot;I would ask her to step aside,&quot; </strong>David Axelrod, a former adviser to President Obama, said on CNN of Debbie Wasserman Schultz. <strong>&quot;I would ask her to step aside, because she&#39;s a distraction on a week that is Hillary Clinton&#39;s week.&quot;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Other senior Democrats echoed that sentiment, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive internal matter. <strong>These Democrats indicated that the Clinton campaign would like the resignation to come Sunday.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>And sure enough...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">JUST IN: Democratic National Committee Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz will step down after the upcoming DNC <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; CBS Evening News (@CBSEveningNews) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Full Statement:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;<strong>Going forward, the best way for me to accomplish those goals is to step down as Party Chair at the end of this convention</strong>. As Party Chair, this week I will open and close the Convention and I will address our delegates about the stakes involved in this election not only for Democrats, but for all Americans.<strong> We have planned a great and unified Convention</strong> this week and I hope and expect that the DNC team that has worked so hard to get us to this point will have the strong support of all Democrats in making sure this is the best convention we have ever had.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;<strong>I&#39;ve been proud to serve as the first woman nominated by a sitting president as Chair of the Democratic National Committee</strong> and I am confident that the strong team in place will lead our party effectively through this election to elect Hillary Clinton as our 45th president.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p>Her replacement:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">UPDATE: DNC Vice Chair Donna Brazile will serve as Interim Chair through the election after Debbie Wasserman Schultz steps down</p> <p>&mdash; CBS Evening News (@CBSEveningNews) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>So, &quot;Putin wins&quot;... if only <a href="">according to the failed attempt </a>to redirect the narrative to the &quot;Russian hack&quot; of the DNC Servers.</p> <p><img alt="" src="" style="width: 506px; height: 347px;" /></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="296" height="149" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bernie Sanders Florida President Obama Twitter Twitter Sun, 24 Jul 2016 20:01:23 +0000 Tyler Durden 567008 at Leaked Emails Confirm DNC Officials Planned Anti-Trump Protests <p>Once more conspiracy their becomes conspiracy fact as <a href="">suggestions of &#39;very professionally organized group of thugs&#39; causing trouble at Trump rallies </a>is confirmed with the WikiLeaks released of DNC emails <strong>revealing that DNC officials planned anti-Donald Trump protests</strong>.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 303px;" /></a></p> <p><a href="Depending upon whom you speak with, peak oil is either a catastrophe waiting to happen or a far-off concern that has already been solved or will be soon. Frequently, peak oil is referred to as a myth. What you rarely hear is that peak oil is an empirical fact having already occurred in dozens of countries.">As we detailed at the time,</a> <strong>Donald Trump had no doubts about who was to blame for the shocking violence: organized &ldquo;thugs.&rdquo;</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Trump tweeted on Saturday:<span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong> &quot;The organized group of people, many of them thugs, who shut down our First Amendment rights in Chicago, have totally energized America!&quot;</strong></em></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Protesters at planned Chicago rally yesterday were &ldquo;very professionally done,&rdquo;</strong></span> Donald Trump says in Dayton, Ohio.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>... </p><p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>&ldquo;When they have organized, professionally staged wise-guys, we have to fight back&rdquo;</strong></span></p> </blockquote> <p>We said at the time that we were sure this would not be the last time &quot;organized&quot; protesters will suddenly appear en masse to provoke reactions and violently protest Trump&#39;s freedom of speech.. and it wasn&#39;t. <a href="">But now, as The Daily Caller reports</a>,</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>In multiple emails, DNC officials signed off and acknowledged the existence of two anti-Donald Trump protests in South Bend, IN and Billings, MT. </strong>The release of nearly 20,000 emails is the first in a WikiLeaks &ldquo;Hillary Leaks&rdquo; series.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>On April 29, a DNC press staffer, Rachel Palermo, alerted Eric Walker, deputy communications director, about a Facebook page for an anti-Trump protest on May 2 in South Bend. <strong>&ldquo;Whoo! Thanks to our interns for finding this out.&rdquo; Walker replies, &ldquo;I like it, as long as the students feel safe getting involved. I imagine this demo will be nicer than the one in San Fran today.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>That day in San Francisco protesters blocked off roads to an event Donald Trump was hosting. <strong>The Republican nominee ended up having to jump down from the highway and sneak around back&nbsp;to enter.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In another other email chain also on April 29, titled &ldquo;Week-Ahead Notes &amp; Assignments,&rdquo; former DNC media booker Pablo Manriquez comments <strong>&ldquo;this should be fun&rdquo; in reference to the May protest.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>University of Notre Dame, located in South Bend, is Manriquez&rsquo;s alma mater. A DNC official wrote,<strong> &ldquo;Pablo please reach out to any folks you think may be able to help.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Another protest that&rsquo;s directly mentioned in emails included one that occurred on May 26 in Billings, MT. The email is from May 20 and features notes on the &ldquo;week ahead.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Both the Indiana and Montana protests were non-violent.<strong> The South Bend protest <a href="" target="_blank">had</a>&nbsp;&ldquo;some expletive laced chants,&rdquo; and protesters <a href="" target="_blank">carrying</a> Mexican flags. The Montana one <a href="" target="_blank">had</a> &ldquo;only a few&rdquo; protesters.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Intern involvement with protests is mentioned twice in the leaked emails.</strong> DNC communications director Luis Miranda bemoaned photos of an empty anti-Trump protest in Washington, D.C. in one email chain.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Miranda said: <strong><em><u>&ldquo;Going forward, when our allies screw up and don&rsquo;t deliver bodies in time, we either send all our interns out there or we stay away from it.. we don&rsquo;t want to own a bad picture.&rdquo;</u></em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Miranda was notified of the protests in an email by another DNC email chain titled <strong>&ldquo;Tv coverage of protest great.&rdquo;</strong> The original email notified the DNC communications director of the Indiana protest and a DNC staffer wrote, &ldquo;thanks to our interns for finding this out.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>DNC officials&nbsp;Brad Marshall, a chief financial officer, and Alan Reed, a compliance officer,&nbsp;also <strong>signed off on the use of Black Lives Matter organizer Deray Mckesson as a surrogate for Hillary Clinton.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Mckesson rose to prominence after being active in protests in Ferguson, MO and Baltimore, MD. He has yet to endorse a candidate and <a href="" target="_blank">said</a> protests are likely to happen at the upcoming Democratic Party convention.</p> </blockquote> <p>Which makes Hillary Clinton&#39;s post-violence email even more controversial...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Violence has no place in our politics. We should use our words and deeds to bring Americans together. <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) <a href="">March 12, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>As Fusion reported at the time,<em><strong> several things about the statement left people with a bad taste in their mouths. Chief among them were her invocation of the Charleston massacre and her lack of stated support for the protesters challenging Trump in Chicago</strong></em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1041" height="526" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Donald Trump First Amendment Indiana Ohio Twitter Twitter Washington D.C. Sun, 24 Jul 2016 19:35:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 566996 at Meanwhile At The DNC In Philly... <p><a href="">As LA Times reporter </a>Matt pearce tweeted...</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="498" height="124" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="499" height="331" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="498" height="339" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="497" height="345" style="width: 579px; height: 402px;" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="499" height="325" style="width: 580px; height: 378px;" /></a></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Just walked through a crowd of at least a couple hundred liberals and still haven't seen a single Clinton sign. <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">3 hours later, Ive seen 1 (see tweet below). To be fair, these are "protests" hence overwhelming Bernie contingency. <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Jacqueline Alemany (@JaxAlemany) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Spotted at the Bernie Sanders rally outside Philly city hall. <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Tons. <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="und"><a href=""></a></p> <p>— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="und"><a href=""></a></p> <p>— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Kristy Marshall, of Bellingham, Wash. "This was the one sign that spoke to me." <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Rebecca Waring, of Baltimore: "I made this after I read the emails on Wikileaks. I was just horrified. So unfair." " <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Like, I literally just interviewed two lefty protesters from Youngstown, Ohio, who decided to skip the RNC last week and come to the DNC.</p> <p>— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>... it would appear that the the Democratic Party is even more fragmented than the GOP.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1257" height="819" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bernie Sanders Ohio Twitter Twitter Sun, 24 Jul 2016 19:05:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 566995 at Michael Hudson Exposes 2016's Real 'Class War': Krugman's Neocon Neoliberalism Vs Trump's Righteous Populism <p><a href=";task=view&amp;id=31&amp;Itemid=74&amp;jumival=16817"><em>Via The Real News Network,</em></a></p> <p>Economist Michael Hudson says Trump&#39;s divergence from the conventional Republican platform is generating <strong>indignant punditry from neocons and neoliberals alike</strong>...</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>Full Transcript:</p> <p>SHARMINI PERIES, EXECUTIVE PRODUCER, TRNN: It&#39;s the Real News Network. I&#39;m Sharmini Peries coming to you from Baltimore.</p> <p><strong><em>On Friday, just after the Republican National Congress wrapped up with its presidential candidate, Donald Trump, Paul Krugman of the New York Times penned an article titled &quot;Donald Trump: The Siberian Candidate.&quot; He said in it, if elected, would Donald Trump be Vladimir Putin&#39;s man in the White House? Krugman himself is worried as ludicrous and outrageous as the question sounds, the Trump campaign&#39;s recent behavior has quite a few foreign policy experts wondering, he says, just what kind of hold Mr. Putin has over the Republican nominee, and whether that influence will continue if he wins.</em></strong></p> <p>Well, let&#39;s unravel that statement with Michael Hudson. He&#39;s joining us from New York. Michael is a distinguished research professor of economics at the University of Missouri Kansas City. His latest book is Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage Destroyed the Global Economy. Thank you so much for joining us, Michael.</p> <p>MICHAEL HUDSON: It&#39;s good to be here, Sharmini. It&#39;s been an exciting week.</p> <p>PERIES: So let&#39;s take a look at this article by Paul Krugman. Where is he going with this analysis about the Siberian candidate?</p> <p>HUDSON: Well, <u><strong>Krugman has joined the ranks of the neocons, as well as the neoliberals, and they&#39;re terrified that they&#39;re losing control of the Republican Party</strong></u>. For the last half-century the Republican Party has been pro-Cold War, corporatist. And Trump has actually, is reversing that. Reversing the whole traditional platform. And that really worries the neocons.</p> <p><strong>Until his speech, the whole Republican Convention, every speaker had avoided dealing with economic policy issues. No one referred to the party platform, which isn&#39;t very good. And it was mostly an attack on Hillary. Chants of &quot;lock her up.&quot; </strong>And Trump children, aimed to try to humanize him and make him look like a loving man.</p> <p><strong>But finally came Trump&#39;s speech, and this was for the first time, policy was there.</strong> And he&#39;s making a left run around Hillary. He appealed twice to Bernie Sanders supporters, and the two major policies that he outlined in the speech broke radically from the Republican traditional right-wing stance. And that is called destroying the party by the right wing, and Trump said he&#39;s not destroying the party, he&#39;s building it up and appealing to labor, and appealing to the rational interest that otherwise had been backing Bernie Sanders.</p> <p><strong>So in terms of national security, he wanted to roll back NATO spending. </strong>And he made it clear, roll back military spending. We can spend it on infrastructure, we can spend it on employing American labor. And in the speech, he said, look, we don&#39;t need foreign military bases and foreign spending to defend our allies. <strong>We can defend them from the United States, because in today&#39;s world, the only kind of war we&#39;re going to have is atomic war. Nobody&#39;s going to invade another country. We&#39;re not going to send American troops to invade Russia, if it were to attack. So nobody&#39;s even talking about that. So let&#39;s be realistic.</strong></p> <p>Well, being realistic has driven other people crazy. <strong>Not only did Krugman say that Trump would, quote, actually follow a pro-Putin foreign policy at the expense of America&#39;s allies, and he&#39;s referring to the Ukraine, basically, and it&#39;s at--he&#39;s become a lobbyist for the military-industrial complex.</strong> But also, at the Washington Post you had Anne Applebaum call him explicitly the Manchurian candidate, referring to the 1962 movie, and rejecting the neocon craziness. This has just driven them nutty because they&#39;re worried of losing the Republican Party under Trump.</p> <p><strong>In economic policy, Trump also opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the TTIP trade and corporate power grab [inaud.] with Europe to block public regulation.</strong> And this was also a major plank of Bernie Sanders&#39; campaign against Hillary, which Trump knows. The corporatist wings of both the Republican and the Democratic Parties fear that Trump&#39;s opposition to NAFTA and TPP will lead the Republicans not to push through in the lame duck session after November. The whole plan has been that once the election&#39;s over, Obama will then get all the Republicans together and will pass the Republican platform that he&#39;s been pushing for the last eight years. The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement with Europe, and the other neoliberal policies.</p> <p><strong>And now that Trump is trying to rebuild the Republican Party, all of that is threatened. </strong>And so on the Republican side of the New York Times page you had David Brooks writing &quot;The death of the Republican Party.&quot; So what Trump calls the rebirth of the Republican Party, it means the death of the reactionary, conservative, corporatist, anti-labor Republican Party.</p> <p><strong>And when he wrote this, quote, Trump is decimating the things Republicans stood for: </strong>NATO, entitlement reform, in other words winding back Social Security, and support of the corporatist Trans-Pacific Partnership. So it&#39;s almost hilarious to see what happens. And Trump also has reversed the traditional Republican fiscal responsibility austerity policy, that not a word about balanced budgets anymore. And he said he was going to run at policy to employ American labor and put it back to work on infrastructure. Again, he&#39;s made a left runaround Hillary. He says he wants to reinstate Glass-Steagall, whereas the Clintons were the people that got rid of it.</p> <p>And <strong>this may be for show, simply to brand Hillary as Wall Street&#39;s candidate. But it also seems to actually be an attack on Wall Street.</strong> And Trump&#39;s genius was to turn around all the attacks on him as being a shady businessman. He said, look, nobody knows the system better than me, which is why I alone can fix it. Now, what that means, basically, as a businessman, he knows the fine print by which they&#39;ve been screwing the people. So only someone like him knows how to fight against Wall Street. After all, he&#39;s been screwing the Wall Street banks for years [inaud.]. And he can now fight for the population fighting against Wall Street, just as he&#39;s been able to stiff the banks.</p> <p>So it&#39;s sort of hilarious. On the one hand, leading up to him you had Republicans saying throw Hillary in jail. And Hillary saying throw Trump in the [inaud.]. And so you have the whole election coming up with---.</p> <p>PERIES: Maybe we should take the lead and lock them all up. Michael, what is becoming very clear is that there&#39;s a great deal of inconsistencies on the part of the Republican Party. Various people are talking different things, like if you hear Mike Pence, the vice presidential candidate, speak, and then you heard Donald Trump, and then you heard Ivanka Trump speak yesterday, they&#39;re all saying different things. It&#39;s like different strokes for different folks. And I guess in marketing and marketeering, which Trump is the master of, that makes perfect sense. Just tap on everybody&#39;s shoulder so they feel like they&#39;re the ones being represented as spoken about, and they&#39;re going to have their issues addressed in some way.</p> <p>When it comes--he also in that sense appealed to, as you said, the Bernie Sanders people when he talked about the trade deals. You know, he&#39;s been talking about NAFTA, TTIP, TTP, and these are areas that really is traditionally been the left of the left issues. And now there&#39;s this, that he&#39;s anti-these trade deals, and he&#39;s going to bring jobs home. What does that mean?</p> <p>HUDSON: Well, <strong>you&#39;re right when you say there&#39;s a policy confusion within the Republican Party</strong>. And I guess if this were marketing, it&#39;s the idea that everybody hears what they want to hear. And if they can hear right-wing gay bashing from the Indiana governor, and they can hear Trump talking about hte LGBTQ, everybody will sort of be on the side.</p> <p><strong>But I listened to what Governor Pence said about defending Trump&#39;s views on NATO. And he&#39;s so smooth.</strong> So slick, that he translated what Trump said in a way that no Republican conservative could really disagree with it. I think he was a very good pick for vice president, because he can, obviously he&#39;s agreed to follow what Trump&#39;s saying, and he&#39;s so smooth, being a lawyer, that he can make it all appear much more reasonable than it would.</p> <p>I think that the most, the biggest contradiction, was you can look at how the convention began with Governor Christie. Accusing Hillary of being pro-Russian when she&#39;s actually threatening war, and criticizing her for not helping the Ukrainians when it was she who brought Victorian Nuland in to push the coup d&#39;etat with the neo-nazis, and gave them $5 billion. And Trump reversed the whole thing and said no, no, no. I&#39;m not anti-Russian, I&#39;m pro-Russian. I&#39;m not going to defend Ukrainians. Just the opposite.</p> <p>And it&#39;s obvious that the Republicans have fallen into line behind them. And no wonder the Democrats want them to lose. All of that--you&#39;ve had the Koch brothers say we&#39;re not going to give money to Trump, the Republicans, now. We&#39;re backing Hillary. You&#39;ve got the Chamber of Commerce saying because Trump isn&#39;t for the corporate takeover of foreign trade, we&#39;re now supporting the Democrats, not the Reepublicans.</p> <p><strong>So this is really the class war. </strong>And it&#39;s the class war of Wall Street and the corporate sector of the Democratic side against Trump on the populist side. And who knows whether he really means what he says when he says he&#39;s for the workers and he wants to rebuild the cities, put labor back to work. And when he says he&#39;s for the blacks and Hispanics have to get jobs just like white people, maybe he&#39;s telling the truth, because that certainly is the way that the country can be rebuilt in a positive way.</p> <p><strong>And the interesting thing is that all he gets from the Democrats is denunciations. S</strong>o I can&#39;t wait to see how Bernie Sanders is going to handle all this at the Democratic Convention next week.</p> <p>PERIES: All right, Michael. A lot to continue discussing there. I thank you so much for joining us today and look forward to a report next week.</p> <p>HUDSON: Yes, good to be here at this exciting time.</p> <p>PERIES: And thank you for joining us on the Real News Network.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="230" height="126" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bernie Sanders Donald Trump Global Economy Indiana Krugman national security Neocons New York Times Paul Krugman The Manchurian Candidate Ukraine Vladimir Putin White House Sun, 24 Jul 2016 18:35:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 566994 at Machete-Wielding Syrian Refugee Kills Pregnant Woman; Injures Two In Southern German City <p><em>Summary:</em></p> <ul> <li>Police say a Syrian refugee killed a woman with a machete and wounded two others outside a bus station in the southwestern German city of Reutlingen before being arrested.</li> <li>Police spokesman Bjoern Reusch said in a statement Sunday that witnesses said the 21-year-old man, who was known to police, was having an argument with the woman before attacking her about 4:30 p.m. Police say the motive behind the attack is still not clear.</li> <li>The attack comes as Germany is on edge following a rampage at a Munich mall on Friday night in which nine people were killed, and an ax attack on a train a week ago by a young Afghan migrant that left five wounded in southern Germany.</li> <li>Police said the attacked in Reutlingen had caused injury previously, but did not give details, reports the BBC.</li> <li>For many Germans, the tipping point was New Year's Eve in Cologne. Most of the suspects identified in connection with an extensive series of robberies and sexual assaults in Cologne during New Year's celebrations were later identified as refugees by Germany prosecutors.</li> </ul> <p>* * * </p> <p><em><strong>Update 4:&nbsp; </strong></em>The man was identified as a Syrian asylum seeker, aged 21, who was previously known to law enforcement, the local police department said in a <a href="">statement</a>. The motives of the man are still unclear; the murdered woman was reportedly pregnant.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p><em><strong>Update 3: </strong></em>A video has been released showing the allegedly Syrian refugee attacked "running around."</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Reutlingen<br />attack<br />video<br />attacker running around<br />women frantically on the phone <a href=""></a></p> <p>— R?f???l (@70219) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>* * * </p> <p><em><strong>Update 2</strong></em>: The perpetrator had an argument with a woman near the central bus terminal in Reutlingen, and during the altercation severely injured the woman using a machete.</p> <p>The woman died of her injuries at the scene, police said. The perpetrator was then detained near the scene “in minutes” after the incident but managed to injure another woman and a man, police added. </p> <p><strong>The eye witnesses described the attacker to Bild as "fully insane," adding that he tried to attack a police car with his machete. </strong></p> <p>* * * </p> <p><em><strong>Update: </strong></em>according to Sky News, the machete-wielding attacker in Reutlinger was a Syrian refugee who acted alone.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Update - German police say they believe Syrian refugee armed with machete who killed woman and injured two others in <a href="">#Reutlingen</a> acted alone</p> <p>— Sky News Newsdesk (@SkyNewsBreak) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>And the hits just keep on coming. With the police still trying to piece together the story behind Friday's Munich attack, moments ago Bild reported that a man with a machete murdered a woman, and injured two others in the downtown area of the southern German town of Reutlingen. The attacker - who appears to have been inspired by last Monday's axe-wielding slasher who pledged allegiance to ISIS in a YouTube testimony - has been arrested by the police.&nbsp; </p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="de">Der Täter wurde festgenommen. <a href="">#Reutlingen</a> <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— BILD (@BILD) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">BREAKING - German media reports one dead two injured in machete attack in town of Reutlingen near Stuttgart</p> <p>— Mark White (@skymarkwhite) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="">#BREAKING</a>: One dead and 2 injured after a man attacked people with a machete in <a href="">#Reutlingen</a> Germany <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">GERMANY: Man with machete kills a woman, injures 2 other people in Reutlingen, Germany. attacker arrested. PHOTOS: <a href=""></a></p> <p>— KolHaolam (@KolHaolam) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The motive behind the attack is unclear. The incident took place near a doner kebab stand at Listplatz square, Germany’s Bild Reports. </p> <p>Photos posted on social media show the alleged perpetrator lying on the ground, restrained by police officers. Police have confirmed that the man was arrested after he had used a machete to kill a woman and injure two more people in Reutlingen.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">PHOTO: Reportedly shows the attacker after being apprehended by police, Reutlingen <a href="">#Germany</a> - <a href="">@News_Executive</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Conflict News (@Conflicts) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="">#BREAKING</a>: The machete used by <a href="">#Reutlingen</a> attecker in <a href="">#Germany</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p> According to initial unconfirmed report, the attacker was Muslim.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">BREAKING GERMANY: Muslim man murders woman, injures 2 others while on stabbing spree in <a href="">#Reutlingen</a><br />stabber arrested <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Israel News Flash (@ILNewsFlash) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="565" height="398" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Germany Israel Testimony Twitter Twitter Sun, 24 Jul 2016 18:22:17 +0000 Tyler Durden 566984 at G-20 Meeting Ends With Rising Discord Between China And US <p>Over the weekend, the Group of 20 convened in yet another meeting in Chengdu, China, where they reiterated a long-running pledge to use all policy tools to help boost confidence and growth, but instead of emphasizing monetary policy the group said they would focus on fiscal and structural measures. Then again, since incremental fiscal stimulus would likely result in additional central bank monetization in order to avoid a steep selloff in government bonds and risk a yield spike, what the G-20 really did is set the stage for even more central bank-funded deficit spending, aka soft helicopter money. </p> <p><img src="" width="479" height="319" /></p> <p>"The global economic recovery continues but remains weaker than desirable," finance ministers and central bank governors said in a <a href="">joint communique at </a>the close of a two-day gathering in Chengdu, China Sunday. They clearly did not believe that the S&amp;P at record highs is indicative of a US, or global, economy that is firing on all cylinders. Incidentally, neither does the BIS which a month ago warned about the dangers of overheating asset prices as a result of unprecedented global monetary stimulus.</p> <p>"We will carefully calibrate and clearly communicate our macroeconomic and structural policy actions to reduce policy uncertainty, minimize negative spillovers and promote transparency."</p> <p>"Underscoring the essential role of structural reforms, we emphasize that our fiscal strategies are equally important to support our common growth objectives," the group said, in slightly modified language from its last communique, issued in April. Three months ago, the group didn’t use the term "essential" for reform, nor the word "emphasize" for its fiscal policy. The April document also didn’t refer to fiscal strategies being "equally" important.</p> <p><strong>As in the April and February communiques, the G-20 said "monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth."</strong></p> <p>Additionally, and as has been the recurring theme for months, the G-20 repeated its pledge to avoid competitive currency devaluations, consult closely on foreign-exchange policy and resist all protectionism. Japan, as in the past, underscored that the communique also reaffirmed warnings against "excess" currency volatility.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>All of the above was largely in keeping the traditionally toothless and diplomatically correct phrasings of G-20 meeting statements.</p> <p>But while the group traditionally tries to put on a united front, a curious divergence emerged following the latest meeting in China, <a href="">where as Bloomberg </a>notes Chinese and U.S. officials "<strong>showed signs of being at odds on how synchronized efforts to boost global growth need to be</strong>, <strong>with China stressing the need for improved coordination more than the U.S."</strong></p> <p>U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew on Thursday <strong>talked down the need for crisis-level coordination as he headed to Chengdu, China, for the meeting. </strong>This follows a call by Chinese policy makers on Friday who added urgency to their earlier call to strengthen efforts across the globe to break down a prolonged period of sluggish growth. </p> <p>“G-20 countries should intensify consultation and coordination, forge policy consensus, and guide market expectation,” Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said Saturday at a symposium kicking off the meeting. He repeated comments from President Xi Jinping that it’s “vitally” important for the group to enhance how it works together, adding that the “global economy is at a critical conjuncture” as the “impacts of the international financial crisis are still unfolding.” </p> <p><strong>On Friday, Premier Li Keqiang said that against the backdrop of rising protectionist pressures and increasing challenges in international trade policy</strong>, “<strong>it is critical to enhance international economic policy coordination.</strong>” He was referring to the recent increase in protectionism between China and the US, leading to a surge in new tariffs and duties against Chinese commodity exports, <a href="">such as a recent 522% spike in duties </a>for Chinese cold-rolled steel exports, as Beijing seeks to quietly flood the world with its excess production.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="265" /></a></p> <p>As Bloomberg adds, it is unclear if China is calling for the same level of policy coordination seen in 2008 and 2009, <strong>or what kind of commitment it wants from the G-20</strong>. The group isn’t at a stage of heated discussions over how policy coordination should take place, according to a Japanese Finance Ministry official who declined to be named, citing ministry policy. The G-20 agrees on using all available policy tools depending on the economic situation of each nation, the person said.</p> <p>Perhaps one reason for the dicshord is the US' intention to keep portraying the US as an "oasis of stability" in an otherwise chaotic world. China faces a transition to lower growth and a shift from an old-model economy fueled by debt and investment, to one led by consumers and services. </p> <p>There is, of course, a glaring problem with any attempt to showcase China as an economy whose consumer is strong enough to propell its growth to the next level.&nbsp; As <a href="">Caixin calculates</a> <strong>China's average household debt relative to GDP has already reached historic highs</strong>, driven by a surge in mortgage loans over the past few years. By the end of 2015, Chinese residents owed banks 27 trillion yuan (US$4 trillion), equivalent to 40 percent of China's GDP. That puts China significantly above many other emerging economies, such as India, Russia and Brazil, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements. That means there isn't much more room for households to keep borrowing. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="480" height="276" /></a></p> <p>It also puts Chinese consumer debt above that of the US. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The average urban <strong>household debt burden may be even higher </strong>due to conditions that make it difficult for rural residents, including migrant workers, to obtain bank loans. Each of China's 172 million urban households owed an average of 156,000 yuan in debt at the end of last year, based on official data that show 40 percent of all Chinese households held urban residence permits in 2015. That's 1.7 times the average disposable income for urban households. <strong>Expanding the definition to include people who live in cities but don't have official urban residence permits, or hukou, the ratio falls to 1.25 times, still higher than the 1.2 times for the United States. </strong></p> </blockquote> <p>It appears that even before the Chinese handoff to consumer-led growth happened, Chinese consumers are already tapped out with unprecedented amounts of debt.&nbsp; This is precisely what China is worried about when it seeks greater global coordination, aware that a next debt-driven crisis is just over the horizon.</p> <p><strong>The U.S., however, is “a bright spot” in a world with a lot of uncertainties, </strong>Lew told reporters Saturday in Chengdu. He emphasized the need to “redouble” efforts to use all policy tools available to boost shared growth. At the same time, Lew said ahead of the meeting that he didn’t think “this is a moment that calls for the kind of coordinated action that occurred during the Great Recession in 2008 and 2009.”</p> <p>Why this unwilingness on behalf of the US to even consider greater coordination - ostensibly in response to future crises?&nbsp; The answer is revealed from the conclusion of the G-7 meeting which took place in May in Sendai, Japan. Recall that following that summit, the Group of 7 most advanced countries <a href="">refused to warn of a "global economic crisis</a>" for one simple reason: the <strong>"sentiment can become self-fulfilling.</strong>"</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>According to Glenn Maguire, Asia-Pacific chief economist at Australia &amp; New Zealand Banking Group, "Asia is feeling the brunt of the Chinese slowdown given its trade exposure, with a more marginal impact so far on the U.S. and Europe." </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"Hence it is not entirely surprising that a coordinated response to an unevenly felt dynamic could not be reached at the G-7 negotiating table," Maguire said. "<strong>Moreover, the G-7 is obviously aware of the ‘announcement effect’ the official communique has,” he said. "In such a situation, warning of negative risks and sentiment can become self-fulfilling</strong>."</p> </blockquote> <p>Today, the G-20 effectively extended on this logic courtesy of Jack lew who once again was determined to suggest that the global financial system is "stable" despite clear signs to the contrary, including every central bank stepping in in the aftermath of Brexit and assuring the world that "markets" who not be allowed to drop, period. </p> <p>Perhaps this latest attempt to squash pessimism will succeed, if only for the time being. </p> <p>A number of countries had already taken steps to bolster growth in the run-up to the Chengdu G-20, which also occurred against a backdrop of diminished currency tensions compared with early this year. China succeeded in stabilizing growth in the first half of 2016 after unleashing easier credit and loosening its fiscal stance, while Japan is in the midst of compiling its own fiscal package. Britain’s new chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond, had indicated openness to a more generous budget on July 22, when he told the BBC the U.K. could "reset fiscal policy" if necessary.</p> <p>* * * </p> <p>In addition to the general tone of the communique, and the rising dischord between China and the US, one specific item that did generate attention was recent events in Turkey. As Bloomberg points out, there was no mention in the communique of Turkey, after disagreement among members over whether to include some reference. <strong>German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble Saturday told reporters that there’s great concern “in Germany and everywhere in Europe that what is happening in Turkey is not in line with what we understand as democracy and the rule of law</strong>,” amid a crackdown on political opponents in the wake of this month’s coup attempt.</p> <p>Earlier, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, in a posting on Twitter, rejected any reference to his country’s political developments in the communique. However, <a href="">according to Reuters</a>, Turkey <strong>wanted the final communique to include an endorsement of the current government after the failed coup attempt last week, but did not succeed</strong>, G20 officials said. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek, attending the meeting, denied Ankara had sought such a reference, tweeting: "We have no such initiative." </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But European Commissioner for Economic Affairs confirmed on Sunday that Turkey had sought such a mention. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"It is true that Turkey wanted a line on that, that was debated in the drafting sessions but the minister, after talking to a few of us, estimated that it was wiser not to raise this issue in the G20 session itself. That was wise," Moscovici told a news conference. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The Turkish government, which introduced a state of emergency on Wednesday after the failed coup and is considering bringing back the death penalty for the plotters, wanted the final communique of the G20, closely watched by markets, to include a paragraph on Turkey. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>"Strengthening the rule of law is fundamental for sustainable development and we support the legitimate government of Turkey in its endeavours to enhance economic stability and prosperity," the additional paragraph of the G20 was to say.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Officials from European Union countries, however, did not support that and the final communique did not mention Turkey.</p> </blockquote> <p>This implies that tensions between Turkey and Europe continue to rise, although we doubt Erdogan is too nervous, as Turkey still has the upper hand over Germany with a very simple if effective trump card: <em>2 million Syrian refugees which it can unleash in Europe's general direction on a moment's notice. </em>In light of the <a href="">latest deadly attack in southern Germany </a>by an allegedly insane Syrian refugee documented earlier today, we anticipate Turkey's leverage will only increase in the coming weeks, and give Erdogan even more international political cover to continue his unprecedented purge of all domestic enemies in any way he sees fit. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="450" height="300" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Australia Bank of International Settlements BIS Brazil China Deficit Spending European Union Germany Global Economy India Japan Lou Jiwei Monetary Policy Monetization Mortgage Loans New Zealand Recession recovery Reuters Transparency Turkey Twitter Twitter Volatility Yuan Sun, 24 Jul 2016 18:03:13 +0000 Tyler Durden 566993 at Busting Media Myths On Peak Oil <p><a href="">Submitted by Kurt Cobb via,</a></p> <p>Almost synonymous with the term &quot;peak oil&quot; is M. King Hubbert, perhaps the foremost geophysicist of the 20th century, who first theorized about the eventual decline of oil production in the 1930s. His life has now been chronicled by science writer Mason Inman in a new biography entitled <a href="">The Oracle of Oil.</a></p> <p>Depending upon whom you speak with, <strong>peak oil is either a catastrophe waiting to happen or a far-off concern that has already been solved or will be soon</strong>. Frequently, peak oil is referred to as a myth. What you rarely hear is that peak oil is an empirical fact having already occurred in dozens of countries.</p> <p><em><strong>The term &quot;peak oil&quot; simply means that crude oil production for any field, region or country eventually reaches a peak or plateau from which it inexorably declines. Because the amount of oil in the Earth&#39;s crust is finite, it is logical to assume that one day peak oil production will occur worldwide. The concern is that we as a global society are so accustomed to rising oil production that we have built an entire world around that assumption. Will we be ready when oil production begins to decline?</strong></em></p> <p>To shed some light on that and other questions, author Inman takes us from Hubbert&#39;s early days at the University of Chicago to <a href="">his famous speech in 1956</a> (in which he predicted a peak in U.S. crude oil production no later than 1970) to his days in Washington, D.C. working for the U.S. Geological Survey and his fights there concerning the timing of a U.S. oil production peak.</p> <p>In the course of the story Inman puts to rest misconceptions about Hubbert and about peak oil.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>First and foremost</strong>, peak does NOT mean running out. As explained above it means the trend of rising oil production reverses into a decline. When this reversal occurs worldwide, it could pose challenges for a society that has yet to find a cheap, widely available substitute for petroleum to fuel its transportation system. Electric vehicles are still in their infancy and would require huge infrastructure investments. And, petrochemicals made from oil are the basis for a wide variety of clothing, medicines, lubricants, pesticides, and industrial chemicals. Oil is embedded practically everywhere in our lives, and finding substitutes won&#39;t be easy in many cases.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Second</strong>, forecasting peak oil is NOT tantamount to forecasting disaster. Hubbert himself believed that society could make a successful transition away from petroleum and other fossil fuels to a nuclear- and solar-powered world so long as we started early enough. Far from being a pessimist, Inman tells us, Hubbert was a utopian who believed an efficiently run technocratic society with plenty for all was possible if only we would take the necessary steps.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In fact, Hubbert foresaw some things we now take for granted, for example, that postal mail would be largely replaced by &quot;signals sent by wire&quot; which we, of course, call email. He believed that energy efficiency in the form of thick insulation for homes would become increasingly common. We now see that development in weatherization programs for homeowners and the spread of <a href="">Passive House</a> technology which reduces heating and cooling needs by 80 to 90 percent.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Third</strong>, Hubbert was NOT anti-oil. In fact, he worked for Shell Oil Company for 20 years in production research. Hubbert understood deeply the benefits of oil to human society, and he wanted those benefits to continue. But he believed they would not continue unless new sources of energy were deployed before fossil fuel production began its inevitable decline.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Fourth</strong>, contrary to what his critics say, Hubbert did take technological improvements into account when calculating his forecasts for peak. He was aware of unconventional sources of oil such as <a href="">tar sands</a>, <a href="">oil shale</a>, and <a href="">coal-to-liquids technology</a>. But he realized that these sources would be challenging and expensive to exploit.</p> </blockquote> <p><u><strong>It turns out he was right</strong></u>. Operators in the Canadian tar sands today are <a href="">having a difficult time</a> simply maintaining production in the current low-price environment for oil. As for oil shale, despite more than 30 years of research and development including pilot plants, there is no commercial production of oil from oil shale in the United States (which has by far the largest deposits) and <a href="">very limited production in Estonia</a> (where oil shale is mostly burned directly to produce electricity). It&#39;s not clear that standalone facilities that would produce only oil from oil shale would be economical given the American experience.</p> <p>Coal-to-liquids technology continues to be too expensive to deploy worldwide though it does have a foothold in South Africa. South Africa built these expensive and environmentally dirty facilities during the apartheid period when the country&#39;s leaders feared an embargo might curtail oil shipments to South Africa.</p> <p><strong>There is, of course, the question of just how oracular the &quot;oracle of oil&quot; was. </strong>As it turns out, Hubbert&#39;s prediction of a peak in U.S. production (which at that time covered the lower 48 states) was right on the money. U.S. crude oil production fell starting in 1970 and continued to fall (with a short respite when Alaskan oil began to flow) until 2008. Then, the advent of a new kind of <a href="">hydraulic fracturing</a> or fracking (as it is popularly called) made possible the extraction of previously difficult-to-get oil from deep shale deposits (not to be confused with <a href="">oil shale</a> mentioned above).</p> <p><a href=";s=mcrfpus2&amp;f=m">U.S. production last year came close to eclipsing the 1970 number</a>, but has fallen back as low prices have forced deep reductions in drilling. Meanwhile, non-shale production continues to fall. A rise in oil prices would certainly revive drilling in American shale deposits. But it is doubtful that this will happen before shrinking conventional production makes it all but impossible to achieve a new all-time high in U.S. production.&nbsp;</p> <p>As for world production, in the early 1970s Hubbert calculated that a worldwide peak might come as soon as the mid-1990s. But, he did his original calculations before the high prices and oil crises of the 1970s led to an energy efficiency drive worldwide and resulted in the first ever sustained decline in world oil consumption and flat consumption for many years thereafter.</p> <p><strong>He later revised his view which ended up being close to that of the U.S. Energy Information Administration in the late 1970s.</strong> The agency forecast a probable peak about 2010, but offered a range of 1995 to 2035 depending on energy policies and consumption patterns.</p> <p><strong>As it turned out, conventional oil, the kind that Hubbert used in his models, the kind that flows as a liquid from the ground--which I call &quot;Beverly Hillbillies oil&quot; after the &quot;bubbling crude&quot; seen in the introduction to the now long-defunct television series--this kind of oil <a href="">peaked in 2006</a></strong> according to the International Energy Agency, a consortium of 29 countries which provides ongoing research and information about energy supplies worldwide.</p> <p>Despite all protestations to the contrary, Hubbert proved prescient once again. That world oil production continues to eke out small gains is due entirely to production from unconventional sources not included in Hubbert&#39;s models. But those sources have shown themselves to be exquisitely sensitive to price.</p> <p>In the two countries best known for unconventional oil, the United States and Canada, production from U.S. deep shale deposits and Canadian tar sands is now shrinking. Alarmingly, without recent growth in oil production in these two countries, worldwide oil production <a href="">would have declined from 2005 to today</a>. Now that the twin engines of growth, the United States and Canada, are in decline, we may see a fall in worldwide production soon (though whether this will mark the ultimate peak will not be known until many years thereafter).</p> <p><em><strong>But, any peak will inevitably result from a mix of economic and geologic factors. So, the new question about oil is, &quot;Can we afford to extract and refine the oil we have left?&quot; Or, more precisely, &quot;Will the cost of extracting these unconventional sources cause economic growth to slow or stagnate?&quot;</strong></em></p> <p>This is just the sort of scenario Hubbert feared if we waited too long to address the inevitable transition away from fossil fuels. <a href="">And, there is reason to believe that low oil prices today reflect an economy slowed by previously high oil prices</a>. These high prices themselves are an indication that we are now facing ever more difficulty and effort in extracting the remaining marginal sources of oil. And, the fact that so many oil companies are now going bankrupt due to low prices tells us that high prices will have to return if we want to extract this difficult-to-get oil in great quantities again.</p> <p>Hubbert died in 1989 living to see the nuclear accidents at <a href="">Three Mile Island</a> and <a href="">Chernobyl</a>. Long concerned about nuclear waste and impatient for a transition, Hubbert decided that global society needed to undertake the rapid deployment of an indisputably clean source of energy, solar power. We would use solar power not only for electricity, but also to make the liquid fuels needed for our transportation system which could be adapted to run on methanol or hydrogen.</p> <p><strong>Perhaps what irked Hubbert&#39;s critics the most was his lifelong skepticism about exponential economic and population growth. So, firmly did he believe that population growth needed to be curtailed that he and his wife had no children. There were limits, he believed, and if they were breached, humans would pay dearly.</strong></p> <p>Hubbert and his work have once again come into our worldwide discourse as a result of the 2008 oil price spike and the highest ever daily average prices for oil from 2011 through 2014. He is much maligned and much praised these days. But he is perhaps not well understood.</p> <p>Mason Inman&#39;s compelling biography gives all of us, critics and supporters alike, a chance finally to understand this scientific giant and the context within which he spawned insights that continue to be central to our lives.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="515" height="274" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Crude Crude Oil Estonia International Energy Agency Three Mile Island Washington D.C. Sun, 24 Jul 2016 17:41:09 +0000 Tyler Durden 566992 at DNC Chairwoman "Quarantined" From Convention After Sanders Demands "Someone Be Held Accountable" For Emails <p>In a &quot;shocking&quot; turn of events for the new normal, it appears that <a href="">Bernie Sanders&#39; campaign demands</a> that<strong><em> &quot;someone in the DNC be held accountable&quot; </em></strong>over the leaked emails showing collusion to undermine any Clinton opposition, have been heard.</p> <p><a href="">As CNN reports,</a><strong> Debbie Wasserrman Schultz - the Democratic National Committee Chairwoman - will not speak at or preside over the party&#39;s convention this week, </strong>a decision reached by party officials Saturday after emails surfaced that raised questions about the committee&#39;s impartiality during the Democratic primary. As one top Democrat said<strong><em> &quot;she&#39;s been quarantined.&quot;</em></strong></p> <p><iframe height="360" scrolling="no" src="" style="border:none;" width="640"></iframe></p> <p>As more and more revelations are exposed - <a href="">and blamed&nbsp; on Russia </a>- regarding the disgusting behond the scenes smears, collusion, and lies of the DNC,<a href=""> The Hill reports </a>that Bernie Sanders campaign manager Jeff Weaver said &ldquo;someone needs to be held accountable&rdquo; for what was revealed in the leak of internal Democratic National Committee emails this week</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong><em>&ldquo;We spent 48 hours of public attention worrying about who in the Trump campaign was going to be held responsible for the fact that some lines of Mrs. Obama&rsquo;s speech were taken by Mrs. Trump,&rdquo; Weaver said in an interview with ABC News. &quot;Someone in the DNC needs to be held at least as accountable as the Trump campaign.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> </blockquote> <p>Some emails posted on WikiLeaks show an effort to undermine the Sanders campaign.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>One email from the DNC press secretary suggested creating a narrative that the Sanders &ldquo;campaign was a mess.&rdquo; </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Wasserman Schultz in a few emails specifically criticizes Weaver, calling him a &ldquo;<em><strong>damn liar</strong></em>&rdquo; in one.</p> </blockquote> <p>Weaver said the emails show misconduct from the highest DNC officials and that the emails proved previous claims from the Sanders campaign, which accused Wassermann Schultz of tilting the scales in Hillary Clinton&rsquo;s favor during the primary race.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&ldquo;Everybody is disappointed that much of what we felt was happening at the DNC was in fact happening, that you had in this case a <strong>clear example of the DNC taking sides and looking to place negative information into the political process</strong>,&rdquo; Weaver said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>&quot;We have an electoral process. The DNC, by its charter, is required to be neutral among the candidates. Clearly it was not.&rdquo;</strong></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>When asked if Wasserman Schultz should resign, Weaver said &ldquo;she should consider what her options are.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p> </blockquote> <p>The issue is stoking lingering tensions between the Sanders and Clinton camps just a few days before the convention in Philadelphia... and now, as <a href="">CNN reports</a>, it appears the Democrats have made a big decision:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz will not speak at or preside over the party&#39;s convention this week,</strong> a decision reached by party officials Saturday after emails surfaced that raised questions about the committee&#39;s impartiality during the Democratic primary.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The DNC Rules Committee on Saturday rescinded Wasserman Schultz&#39;s position as convention chairwoman, instead naming Rep. Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio, as permanent chair of the convention, according to a DNC source. She will gavel each session to order and will gavel each session closed, a role that had been expected to be held by Wasserman Schultz.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>&quot;She&#39;s been quarantined,&quot; </strong></em></span>another top Democrat said of Wasserman Schultz, following a meeting Saturday night.</p> </blockquote> <p>This is seen as a concession to Sanders, who has been furious at Wasserman Schultz for what he believed was favoritism to Clinton.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Sanders on Sunday told CNN&#39;s Jake Tapper the release of DNC emails that show its staffers working against him underscore the position he&#39;s held for months: Party Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz needs to go.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&quot;I don&#39;t think she is qualified to be the chair of the DNC not only for these awful emails, which revealed the prejudice of the DNC, but also because we need a party that reaches out to working people and young people, and I don&#39;t think her leadership style is doing that,&quot; </strong>Sanders told Tapper on &quot;State of the Union,&quot; on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.</p> </blockquote> <p>The Democrat familiar with the decision said it was done in hopes of preventing chaos on the convention floor among Sanders supporters. The decision was blessed by Clinton and Sanders officials, this Democrat said.</p> <p>So much for party unity.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em><strong>&quot;We are trying to build unity for the fall to beat Donald Trump, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz is a figure of disunity in the party, not a figure of unity,&quot; </strong></em>Weaver said.</p> </blockquote> <p>Still, as <a href="">Sanders said earlier today</a>, <strong>&quot;I&#39;m not shocked by it, but I&#39;m disappointed.&quot;</strong></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">.<a href="">@BernieSanders</a> says Debbie Wasserman Schultz &quot;should resign, period&quot; following DNC email leak. <a href="">#ThisWeek</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; This Week (@ThisWeekABC) <a href="">July 24, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>It appears that very few things can shock the American public any more...<br />&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="283" height="136" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> ABC News Bernie Sanders Donald Trump New Normal Sun, 24 Jul 2016 17:18:42 +0000 Tyler Durden 566982 at