en The New Boremal <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;"><em><strong><a href="" target="_blank">From Slope of Hope: </a></strong></em>This market has had the "market" beaten out of it. If I had any sense - - or, more precisely, if I&nbsp;<em>had</em>&nbsp;the sense to not have any sense - - I'd just throw charts and reason out the window and dump my entire net worth into SPY calls so I could&nbsp;spend the next ten years cleaning out my nostrils. But I'm not dumb enough to be smart, so I can only sit back and watch, slack-jawed.</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">Take the chart below, for instance, from which I've removed the price bars; I merely show a trio of exponential moving averages (50, 100, 200) against the S&amp;P 500 index.</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;"><a href="" style="color: #21759b; outline: none;"><img src="" alt="1220-spx" width="694" height="635" style="border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; max-width: 100%; height: auto;" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-41461" /></a></p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">The "market" didn't die in late 2008, when the Fed began its massive intervention. Although trillions of dollars of money from thin air gave the market a bottom, which allowed it to commence a turnaround on March 6, 2009, we still&nbsp;had a market to play with. I've marked this section as "1".</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">During this time, we had a couple of meaty downdrafts. The first was in the summer of 2010, when Europe (and, more specifically, the Euro) looked ready to fall to pieces. The Euro and U.S. equities were virtually one and the same (and in case you hadn't noticed, these two&nbsp;have long since decoupled, since the utterly-trashed Euro, were it still joined at the hip&nbsp;to US markets, would have dragged the Dow&nbsp;<em>many</em>&nbsp;thousands of points lower than it is right now).</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">Suffice it to say that Europe went "all in" with the kind of insanity that the US Federal Reserve had conjured up, and that crisis was "solved." (You'll have to forgive my frequent use of quotations in this piece, but I find them necessary; were I telling you this verbally, I would be using air quotes.</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;"><img src="" width="512" height="288" style="border-radius: 3px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; max-width: 100%; height: auto;" class="alignnone" /></p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">The second downdraft was the very next year, late in the summer of 2011, when the nation's staggering debt was causing alarm. (I would point out at this juncture that this "staggering" debt was&nbsp;<em>trillions</em>&nbsp;of dollars ago, and Uncle Sam would give his left nut to reduce his debt down to the level of mid-2011 at this point). This time, a spineless John Boehner caved in to Obama, and the notion of&nbsp;<em>any</em>&nbsp;kind of limit to the nation's debt was thrown out the window. The debt ceiling become a permanent joke.</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">Once these crises were past (and, even&nbsp;<em>then</em>, I was bitching up and down about the market, although at this point I'd give&nbsp;<strong>my</strong>&nbsp;left nut to get back to those relatively halcyon days) we entered a new period, which I've marked as "2". During this period, a witch's brew of global central bank intervention had calmed things down to a point where the market was not only still ascending, but doing so almost without interruption.</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">The final phase, in which we are still very much living, is marked 3. This era was ushered in by the introduction of&nbsp;<a href="" target="_blank" style="color: #21759b; outline: none;">QE3</a>, which was the final nail in the coffin of the "market." By this stage, it was so screamingly obvious that global central banks would jump in at the slightest hint of anything scary to equity buyers, that there was simply no reason to be scared anymore. As you can see by the moving averages, they had been becalmed to the point of utter coma. BTFD was gospel.</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">What's troubling to me is there's nothing that should suggest anything but a state of permanence to this situation. The five remaining equity bears on Earth are all saying the same thing: "We'll get 'em in 2015." To which I reply: why? What's going to change?</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">Why, if the market dropped 10%, would the central banks simply not print up a few trillion more? Who is going to tie their hands behind their backs? Why on earth would they not keep doing what they've been doing to the degree necessary to preserve their power and privilege? If the vast majority of the public is too blinkered to understand or care, why should we not accept this never-ending nightmare as a new and very permanent reality?</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">As a verbal insurance policy, everyone from Cramer on up has been declaring "This will not end well" ever since 2009. The&nbsp;<em>only</em>&nbsp;hard lesson&nbsp;our nation seems to have learned from the financial crisis is that it's important to cover your ass verbally so that you can refer to a cautionary quote uttered at some point and tell the public: "See? I told you so."</p> <p style="line-height: 1.714285714; margin: 0px 0px 1.714285714rem; color: #444444; font-family: 'Open Sans', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13.63636302948px;">But this, to me, is sort of like the magic of Elliott Wave analysis: given two possibilities, A and B, if you provide a scenario in which&nbsp;<em>either</em>&nbsp;may occur, you are assured to be right every single time. All you have to do is recount the waves (or refer to the ancient media quote). There is no one who wants to see sensibility and reason return to worldwide markets more than me, good people. But after all these years, it's hard to sustain any hope that anything is going to change. Put it all into Facebook and Alibaba, you monkeys. Janet's got your back.</p> B+ Central Banks Debt Ceiling Elliott Wave Federal Reserve Moving Averages Reality Slope of Hope SPY Sun, 21 Dec 2014 14:37:57 +0000 Tim Knight from Slope of Hope 499398 at THe INTeRViEW... <p style="text-align: center;"><iframe src="" width="1024" height="922" frameborder="0"></iframe>. </p> <p style="text-align: center;">Who knows what evil lurks in the minds of Un...</p> <p style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;">.<iframe src="" width="1024" height="707" frameborder="0"></iframe><br /> . </p> <p style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">What do you think would happen if someone dared to produce a movie about a plot to ass-asinate the Butt-tard in Chief?</span></p> <p style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><iframe src="" width="1024" height="670" frameborder="0"></iframe>. </p> <p style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;">Misdirection: Instead of torture victims, we are now supposed to feel sorry for a hacked politically incorrect Hollywood studio...</p> <p style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><iframe src="" width="768" height="1024" frameborder="0"></iframe>.</p> <p style="text-align: center;">.</p> <p style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;">As much as I dislike the idea of anyone's privacy being hacked, the complacency and/or complicity of the entertainment industry in promoting spy agencies, copyright fascism and people like Christopher Douche and Diane Fuckstein, lead me to say to Sony Entertainment et al: Go Fuck Your Elves!</p> <p style="text-align: center;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"> </p><p><iframe src="" width="960" height="540" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> SPY Sun, 21 Dec 2014 04:32:51 +0000 williambanzai7 499397 at Watch As NYPD Officers Turn Their Backs On NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio <p>Just over two weeks ago, as NYC was turmoiling in protests following the Eric Garner chokehold death and the subsequent acquittal of the police officer involved, none other than NYC's mayor Bill de Blasio - a person whose job is to seek to <em>impartially</em> preserve the peace at all costs - tried to score populist points by disparaging none other than the NY Police Department. </p> <p>This is how the <a href="">NY Post summarized things, </a>granted with a dose of hyperbole:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Determined not to let a crisis go to waste, the mayor has spent the last two days cranking up the volume and the vitriol of his anti-cop agenda. Predictably, he trots out his son, Dante, to put a personal spin on police-black relations, saying he is fearful the biracial teen will end up in a confrontation with a cop.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Imagine that. The city is in turmoil over the Staten Island case and the mayor throws gasoline on the fire by painting the entire police force as a bunch of white racist brutes. Has he no shame?</p> <p>...</p> <p>“<strong>We need a mayor to stand up with and for us</strong>,” police union head Pat Lynch said yesterday. <strong>He said his members feel as if de Blasio is “throwing them under the bus.”</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>It got worse. Demonstrating just how frayed the relationship between the NYC mayor's office is and the city's law enforcement had gotten, the Pa<a href="">trolmen's Benevolent Associ</a>ation issued a statement for the use of police officers requesting that Mayor de Blasio and City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito not attend their funerals. Here is the text of PBA's request, courtesy of <a href="">Truthrevolt</a>: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>I, as a New York City police officer, request that Mayor Bill de Blasio and City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito refrain from attending my funeral services in the event that I am killed in the line of duty. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Due to Mayor de Blasio and Speaker Mark-Viverito’s consistent refusal to show police officers the support and respect they deserve, I believe that their attendance at the funeral of a fallen New York City police officer is an insult to that officer’s memory and sacrifice.</p> </blockquote> <p>Which leads us to today, and the latest nonsenical murder, in which a lone crazed gunman, Ismaaiyl Brinsley, executed in cold blood and in broad daylight two NYPD <a href="">officers as "revenge</a>" for Eric Garner and Michael Brown. In other words, vigilante justice which, according to some, was encouraged by the mayor himself. One such person was former New York Governor George Pataki who in a tweet moments ago, blamed the murder of officers Wenjian Liu and Rafael Ramos on the "divisive anti-cop rhetoric" of mayor de Blasio and outgoing attorney general Eric Holder.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Sickened by these barbaric acts, which sadly are a predictable outcome of divisive anti-cop rhetoric of <a href="">#ericholder</a> &amp; <a href="">#mayordeblasio</a>. <a href="">#NYPD</a></p> <p>— George E. Pataki (@GovernorPataki) <a href="">December 21, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>So just more politics and attempts to score political talking points on the back of yet another human tragedy? Yes, but nothing compared to the reception that de Blasio got earlier today when on his way to the press conference to address the execution-style shooting of two NYPD officers, all the present police officers very visibly and demonstratively turned their back on him.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <script height="394px" width="700px" src=""></script><p>Dear mayor Bill, a piece of advice: if you can hire the guy who is building the moat around the White House, you probably should for a comparably treatment around city hall (and/or your personal residence). Because if you ever need to dial 911, don't be surprised when it goes straight to voicemail. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="332" height="197" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> New York City None White House Sun, 21 Dec 2014 03:29:24 +0000 Tyler Durden 499396 at Judge Rules Obama's Abuse Of Executive Orders Is "Unconstitutional" <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics</em></a>,</p> <p><strong>A federal judge, Judge Arthur J. Schwab of the Western District of Pennsylvania, used a deportation decision to probe the constitutionality of President Obama’s executive order on amnesty, declaring it “unconstitutional.”</strong></p> <p>It is about time that Executive Orders are challenged in court for they are absolutely unconstitutional since they smack of a dictatorial abuse of power that denies the people the right to decide the fate of their nation.</p> <p><strong>Indeed, Texas and other states have already initiated lawsuits challenging the order. </strong>Nonetheless, the key here is that ANY such Executive Order is unconstitutional violating the entire concept of a Republic where it is at least a pretense that it is a government by the people rather than a king acting on a personal whim. This is what the law should be – not because of the subject-matter, but any issue.</p> <p><strong>Obama could just as easily order that the IRS increase taxes to 85% without Congress. Anything would be possible. </strong>This is the immigration issue, but the act of an Executive Order is everything. Obama just issued such an unconstitutional order to the FCC directing them to regulate and license the Internet. There is nothing any President could do without a vote from the people</p> <p>Consequently, Judge Schwab wrote:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><em><strong>“President Obama’s unilateral legislative action violates the separation of powers provided for in the United States Constitution as well as the Take Care Clause, and therefore, is unconstitutional.”</strong></em></p> </blockquote> <p>Full Decision below:</p> <p style="margin: 12px auto 6px auto; font-family: Helvetica,Arial,Sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 14px; line-height: normal; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal; display: block;"> <a href="" title="View Juarez Escobar on Scribd" style="text-decoration: underline;">Juarez Escobar</a></p> <p><iframe src=";view_mode=scroll&amp;show_recommendations=true" width="100%" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="395" height="294" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Martin Armstrong Sun, 21 Dec 2014 03:14:10 +0000 Tyler Durden 499379 at China Tests Nuclear ICBMs, US Analyst Warns "Arms Control Is Failing To Increase American Security" <p><strong>China carried out a long-range missile flight test</strong> on Saturday using multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, according to U.S. defense officials. <a href=";utm_medium=social&amp;;utm_campaign=buffer">As The Washington Free Beacon reports,</a> the test of a new DF-41 missile, China&rsquo;s longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile, <strong>marks the first test of multiple warhead capabilities for China </strong>(the DF-41 is capable of carrying up to 10 warheads and has a maximum range of 7,456 miles, allowing it to target the entire continental United States). Rick Fisher, a specialist on the Chinese military with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, warned <strong><em>&quot;the beginning of China&rsquo;s move toward multiple warhead-armed nuclear missiles is proof that today, arms control is failing to increase the security of Americans.&quot;</em></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 501px; height: 351px;" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 500px; height: 351px;" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 500px; height: 636px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><em>As The Washington Free Beacon reports,</em></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>China carried out a long-range missile flight test on Saturday using multiple, independently targetable reentry vehicles, or MIRVs, according to U.S. defense officials.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The flight test Saturday of a new DF-41 missile, China&rsquo;s longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile, marks the first test of multiple warhead capabilities for China,</strong> officials told the Washington Free Beacon.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>China has been known to be developing multiple-warhead technology, which it obtained from the United States illegally in the 1990s.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>However, the Dec. 13 DF-41 flight test, using an unknown number of inert maneuvering warheads, is being viewed by U.S. intelligence agencies as a significant advance for China&rsquo;s strategic nuclear forces and part of a build-up that is likely to affect the strategic balance of forces.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>China&rsquo;s nuclear arsenal is estimated to include around 240 very large warheads.</strong> That number is expected to increase sharply as the Chinese deploy new multiple-warhead missiles.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The current deployed U.S. strategic warhead arsenal includes 1,642 warheads. All 450 Minuteman III missiles have been modified to no longer carry MIRVs. However, Trident II submarine-launched missiles can carry up to 14 MIRVs per missile.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Additionally, the development of China&rsquo;s multiple warhead technology was assisted by illegal transfers of technology from U.S. companies during the Clinton administration, according to documents and officials familiar with the issue.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;The DF-41, which could be deployed as early as 2015, may carry up to 10 MIRVs, and have a maximum range as far as 7,456 miles, allowing it to target the entire continental United States,&rdquo;</strong> the report said. &ldquo;In addition, some sources claim China has modified the DF&ndash;5 and the DF&ndash;31A to be able to carry MIRVs.&rdquo;</p> </blockquote> <p>Analysts are sounding a warning...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Larry Wortzel, a former military intelligence official who specialized on China, said the Chinese military has been working on a MIRV-modified DF-41 for a number of years.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Wortzel said Chinese military research literature has documented work on the DF-41 but the Pentagon &ldquo;has been reluctant to discuss or confirm these developments.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;The United States is now threatened with a more deadly and survivable nuclear force that makes our weak ballistic missile defenses less effective,&rdquo; Wortzel said. &ldquo;We need to improve our own defenses and modernize our own deterrent force as the Chinese are doing.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Rick Fisher, a specialist on the Chinese military, said the advent of China&rsquo;s MIRV capability should mark the end of U.S. efforts to reduce the number of nuclear warheads.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;The Chinese have not and likely will not disclose their nuclear warhead buildup plans, Russia is modernizing its nuclear forces across the board and violating the INF treaty with new classes of missiles, so it would be suicidal for the Washington to pursue a new round of nuclear reductions as is this administration&rsquo;s preference.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Fisher, with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said China may deploy a combination of single-warhead and multiple warhead DF-41s, with the single warhead version carrying a huge &ldquo;city buster&rdquo; multi-megaton bombs.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;The beginning of China&rsquo;s move toward multiple warhead-armed nuclear missiles is proof that today, <strong>arms control is failing to increase the security of Americans,&rdquo;</strong> Fisher said. &ldquo;Instead,<strong> it is time to be rebuilding U.S. nuclear warfighting capabilities</strong>, to include new mobile ICBMs, new medium range missiles and new tactical nuclear missile systems.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Georgetown University Professor Phillip Karber has studied China&rsquo;s nuclear forces and believes its arsenal is far larger than the U.S. intelligence estimate of 240.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;The Chinese development of the DF-41 has been a long term, methodical process,&rdquo;</strong> Karber said. &ldquo;However, if as we suspect they are going to put a MIRVed version of the missile on both rail and road-mobile launchers, the number of reentry vehicles could grow quite rapidly depending on the number of warheads they end up putting on the missiles.&rdquo;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The DF-41 was revealed inadvertently by the Chinese government last summer when details, including the fact that it will be a multi-warhead missile, appeared on a provincial government website before being quickly censored and removed.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>And even the US government is making public statements:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>After several years of silence on the DF-41, the Pentagon disclosed the existence of the new missile in its latest annual report on the Chinese military, made public in June.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;China also is developing a new road-mobile ICBM known as the Dong Feng-41 (DF-41), possibly capable of carrying multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV),&rdquo; the report says.</p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Between Russia and China, it seems &#39;isolation&#39; is building.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="435" height="553" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> China Fisher Minuteman III Sun, 21 Dec 2014 03:00:27 +0000 Tyler Durden 499392 at 150 Years Of Global Monetary Policy Summed Up In One Word (And 1 Chart) <p>"Zero..."</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="466" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>With all the "talk" of diverging paths of monetary policy... one could be forgiven, if glancing at the chart above, for thinking the <strong>inevitable endgame of Keynesianism is very much at hand </strong>as first The BoJ, then The Fed, then Europe all enter ZIRP... and now NIRP...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Source: Goldman Sachs</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1560" height="1211" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Goldman Sachs goldman sachs keynesianism Monetary Policy Sun, 21 Dec 2014 02:00:27 +0000 Tyler Durden 499391 at There Is Hope In Understanding That A Great Economic Collapse Is Coming <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog</em></a>,</p> <p><strong>If you were about to take a final exam, would you have more hope or more fear if you didn&rsquo;t understand any of the questions and you had not prepared for the test at all?&nbsp;</strong> I think that virtually all of us have had dreams where we show up for an exam that we have not studied for.&nbsp; Those dreams can be pretty terrifying.&nbsp; And of course if you were ever in such a situation in real life, you probably did very, very poorly on that test.&nbsp;</p> <p>The reason I have brought up this hypothetical is to make a point.&nbsp;<strong> My point is that there is hope in understanding what is ahead of us, and there is hope in getting prepared.</strong>&nbsp; Since I started <a href="" title="The Economic Collapse Blog"><em>The Economic Collapse Blog</em></a> back in 2009, there have always been a few people that have accused me of spreading fear.&nbsp; That frustrates me, because what I am actually doing is the exact opposite of that.&nbsp; When a hurricane is approaching, is it &ldquo;spreading fear&rdquo; to tell people to board up their windows?&nbsp; Of course not.&nbsp; In fact, you just might save someone&rsquo;s life.&nbsp; Or if you were walking down the street one day and you saw someone that wasn&rsquo;t looking and was about to step out into the road in front of a bus, what would the rational thing to do be?&nbsp; Anyone that has any sense of compassion would yell out and warn that other person to stay back.&nbsp; Yes, that other individual may be startled for a moment, but in the end you will be thanked warmly for saving that person from major injury or worse.&nbsp; <strong>Well, as a nation we are about to be slammed by the hardest times that any of us have ever experienced.&nbsp; If we care about those around us, we should be sounding the alarm.</strong></p> <p>Since 2009, I have published 1,211 articles on the coming economic collapse on my website.&nbsp; Some people assume that I must be filled with worry, bitterness and fear because I am constantly dealing with such deeply disturbing issues.</p> <p>But that is not the case at all.</p> <p>There is nothing that I lose sleep over, and I don&rsquo;t spend my time worrying about anything.&nbsp; Yes, my analysis of the global financial system has completely convinced me that an absolutely horrific economic collapse is in our future.&nbsp; But understanding what is happening helps me to calmly make plans for the years ahead, and working hard to prepare for what is coming gives me hope that my family and I will be able to weather the storm.</p> <p>I do not believe in living my life in a state of fear, and I do not want anything that I write to ever cause fear in my readers.&nbsp; The ancient Hebrew greeting &ldquo;Shalom&rdquo; is roughly translated as &ldquo;peace&rdquo; or &ldquo;completeness&rdquo;, and that is what we are constantly pursuing in my household.&nbsp; My wife and I know that incredibly challenging times are coming, but we also know who we are, what our purpose is, and where we are headed.&nbsp; We also believe that the greatest chapters of our lives are ahead even in the midst of all the chaos that is coming.</p> <p>When times are the darkest, that is when light is needed the most.&nbsp; Just think about it.&nbsp; When you look back over history, what heroes do you admire the most?&nbsp; If you truly think about it, almost all of those heroes arose during times of great adversity and conflict.</p> <p><strong>The years ahead can be a time of great adventure for you, or they can seem like hell on Earth.&nbsp; It all depends on how you respond to your circumstances.</strong></p> <p><strong>Do you want to know who is going to respond to the years ahead with fear, panic and depression?</strong></p> <p>The millions of people that have absolutely no idea what is coming and have made absolutely no preparations are going to be absolutely blindsided by the coming economic collapse.&nbsp; Just like the 1930s, we are going to see people jumping out of windows and jumping in front of trains.&nbsp; Others will sink into a state of despair so deep that nobody will ever be able to shake them out of it.</p> <p>It doesn&rsquo;t have to be that way.</p> <p>Over the past five years I have spent thousands of hours studying the coming economic collapse.&nbsp; In my articles you can find tens of thousands of facts and statistics that prove that the U.S. economy is hurtling toward oblivion.</p> <p><strong>It is not always the most pleasant thing to write about, but it is the truth.&nbsp;</strong> And that is what matters.&nbsp; If you believe that I am wrong, prove it to me.&nbsp; I work very hard to put out the most accurate information that I possibly can.&nbsp; So if you can prove that I am wrong, I will change my mind.</p> <p>But of course that is not going to happen.&nbsp; As I have stated previously,<strong> anyone with half a brain should be able to see that we are living in the greatest debt bubble in human history.&nbsp;</strong> Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that the &ldquo;too big to fail&rdquo; banks are being extraordinarily reckless (<a href="" title="derivatives">derivatives</a>, etc.).&nbsp; Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that our formerly great manufacturing cities are being transformed into crime-infested hellholes.&nbsp; Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that the middle class <a href="" title="is dying">is dying</a>.&nbsp; Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that the exact same patterns that led up to the great financial crisis of 2008 are happening again.&nbsp; Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that we simply cannot consume far more wealth than we produce as a nation indefinitely.&nbsp; <strong>Anyone with half a brain should be able to see that the incredibly foolish decisions that our politicians have been making for decades have placed us on a road to utter disaster.</strong></p> <p>So it doesn&rsquo;t take anyone special to do what I am doing.&nbsp; I am just a &ldquo;watchman on the wall&rdquo; sounding the alarm the best that I can.&nbsp; And there are lots of others that are doing the same thing.&nbsp; We are deeply concerned about where this nation is heading, and we have been pleading with our leaders to do something about it for a long time but they have not listened to us.</p> <p><strong>Since our leaders just continue doing &ldquo;business as usual&rdquo;, there is not going to be a solution to our problems on the national level.</strong></p> <p>So that is why I am encouraging people to get prepared for the hard times that are coming on a family level and a community level.</p> <p>Unfortunately, it seems like some people always have an excuse for not getting prepared.&nbsp; In fact, a few have even gone so far as to accuse me of being &ldquo;anti-faith&rdquo; for suggesting that people actually get off their couches and do something to help their families deal with the nightmare on the horizon.&nbsp;<strong> They seem to have the attitude that we should all just sit back and wait for God to do everything for us.</strong></p> <p>So I am not quite sure why those people get up in the morning and go to work, <strong>since they should just &ldquo;trust God&rdquo; to deposit paychecks into their banks.</strong>&nbsp; And I am not quite sure why they ever fill up the tanks of their vehicles with gasoline, because they should be able to &ldquo;trust God&rdquo; to put more gas there when they need it.</p> <p>I covered all of this in much more detail in my previous article entitled &ldquo;<a href="" title="Is It ‘Anti-Faith’ To Prepare For The Coming Economic Collapse?">Is It &lsquo;Anti-Faith&rsquo; To Prepare For The Coming Economic Collapse?</a>&rdquo;</p> <p>For now, let me just state that what those people are suggesting is the exact opposite of what the Bible teaches.&nbsp; Trusting God is not about sitting back and doing nothing.&nbsp; In the Scriptures, we are told that faith is about stepping out and taking action on what God has revealed to us.&nbsp; That includes working hard, being wise and providing for our families.&nbsp; For example, just check out Proverbs 6:6-11&hellip;</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Go to the ant, you sluggard! Consider her ways and be wise. Which, having no guide, overseer, or ruler, provides her bread in the summer, and gathers her food in the harvest.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>How long will you sleep, O sluggard? When will you arise out of your sleep? Yet a little sleep, a little slumber, a little folding of the hands to sleep&mdash; so will your poverty come upon you like a stalker, and your need as an armed man.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong>In the end, each one of us needs to make the decisions that we feel are best for our own families.</strong></p> <p><strong>So that is why it is so incredibly important not to let someone else do your thinking for you.</strong></p> <p>In America today, the average person watches 153 hours of television a month.&nbsp; In addition to that, we also spend countless hours watching movies, playing video games, listening to music, reading books and surfing the Internet.</p> <p><strong>What most Americans don&rsquo;t realize is that there are just <a href="" title="six giant corporations">six giant corporations</a> that control almost all of that content, and that makes them immensely powerful.</strong></p> <p>These giant media corporations are constantly manipulating our attitudes, opinions and beliefs.&nbsp; And at this point most Americans seem quite content to remain &ldquo;plugged into the matrix&rdquo; and to allow corrupt corporate executives somewhere to do their thinking for them.</p> <p><strong><u>I urge you to break free from that system.</u></strong></p> <p>Do your own research and do your own thinking.</p> <p>Don&rsquo;t take what I say or what anyone else says as truth without critically examining it yourself.&nbsp; This can be difficult at first, because in this nation our young people are no longer trained to think critically.&nbsp; Instead, we are trained to just blindly accept whatever information the system feeds us.</p> <p><strong><u>George Orwell once said that &ldquo;<a href="" target="_blank" title="during times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act">during times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act</a>&ldquo;.</u></strong></p> <p><strong>That perfectly describes the era that we are currently living in.</strong></p> <p><strong>The truth does not bring fear and despair.</strong></p> <p><strong>Rather, the truth brings hope and it sets people free.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="287" height="194" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> ETC Fail George Orwell The Matrix Too Big To Fail Sun, 21 Dec 2014 01:00:27 +0000 Tyler Durden 499390 at The Day Einstein Feared Has Arrived <p><a href=""><em>Via BostonBob at Jim Quinn&#39;s Burning Platform blog</em></a>,</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="" width="600" /></p> Sun, 21 Dec 2014 00:00:27 +0000 Tyler Durden 499389 at Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like A 'Run' On The Gold 'Bank' <h4><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><a href="">Things That Make You Go Hmmm: Signing Off</a></span><br /><span style="font-size: x-small;">&nbsp;</span></h4> <h4><span style="font-size: x-small;">By Grant Williams</span></h4> <div class="body">On Christmas Eve 1979, 27 days before I became a teenager, in a surburban street in Moseley in Britain&rsquo;s West Midlands, a group of musicians put the finishing touches on their debut album. <p>The musicians &mdash; Brian Travers, Astro, James Brown (no, not that one), Earl Falconer, Norman Hassan, Mickey Virtue, and twins Ali and Robin Campbell &mdash; had a unique approach to the music business.</p> <p>Eighteen months prior to completing their first album, Ali Campbell and Travers had plastered the streets of Birmingham with leaflets promoting the band, which had taken its name from the document issued to people claiming unemployment benefits from the UK government&rsquo;s Department of Health and Social Security (DHSS). The name of the form &mdash; and thus the band &mdash; was UB40.</p> <p>Having advertised themselves and with dreams of making a big splash on Britain&rsquo;s reinvigorated music scene running wild in their heads, the band had just one remaining item on their to-do list &mdash; learn to play their instruments.</p> <p><img src="" style="width: 279px; height: 279px; float: right;" /></p> <p>The members of UB40 made an agreement to spend the next year doing nothing other than learning their instruments and practising their songs until they felt they were good enough.</p> <p>(I know, I know! This&nbsp;<strong><em>IS</em></strong>&nbsp;analagous to many modern-day Central Bank policy efforts, but that&rsquo;s not where I&rsquo;m going with this, so stop jumping ahead.)</p> <p>Anyway, after about a year, the band felt competent enough to play in public; and they made their debut on the 9th of February, 1979, in an upstairs room at the Hare &amp; Hounds, a small pub in King&rsquo;s Heath. They had been &ldquo;booked&rdquo; by a friend to celebrate his birthday.</p> <p>Following on the success of their first gig (apparently, the birthday boy was delighted), the band secured a series of similar shows, all in local pubs, at which they planned to unleash their blend of reggae and dub onto an unsuspecting public who, though they didn&rsquo;t realise it, had been waiting for UB40 for years.</p> <p>Remarkably, at one of these pub gigs, Chrissie Hynde just happened to be in attendance, no doubt supping a couple of pints of Throgmorton&rsquo;s Dubious Explanation (a real ale so thick it&rsquo;s served by the slice); and she liked what she saw so much, she offered the band a supporting slot on The Pretenders&rsquo; upcoming tour of the UK.</p> <p>Simple.</p> <p>Fast-forward to Christmas 1979, and the story of the recording of the band&rsquo;s debut album burnishes the legend yet further:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>(Wikipedia): The band approached local musician Bob Lamb as he was the only person they knew with any recording experience. Lamb had been the drummer with the Steve Gibbons Band for much of the 1970s and was a well-known figure within the Birmingham music scene.... However, as the band were unable to afford a proper recording studio, the album was recorded in Lamb&rsquo;s own home at the time, a ground-floor flat in a house on Cambridge Road in Birmingham&rsquo;s Moseley district....</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>Brian Travers recalled just how basic the recording facilities of the original Cambridge Road &ldquo;studio&rdquo; really were:</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 62.25pt;"><strong><em>Because we couldn&rsquo;t afford a studio and he was the only guy we knew who knew how to record music, we did the album in his bedsit. I remember he had his bed on stilts. So underneath the bed was a sofa and mixing desk. And so we recorded the album there on an eight-track machine, with the same 50p coin going through the electric meter continually because we&rsquo;d booted the lock off it. And, with it being a bedsit and us being eight in the band, we&rsquo;d record the saxophone in the kitchen &mdash; because there was a bit of resonance off the walls, a bit of reverb &mdash; before putting the machine effects on it. While the percussion &mdash; the tambourines, the congas, the drums &mdash; we&rsquo;d do in the back yard. Which is why you can hear birds singing on some of the tracks! You know, because it was in the daytime we&rsquo;d be shouting across the fences &ldquo;Keep it DOWN! We&rsquo;re RECORDING!&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>Lamb remembered the process fondly:</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 62.25pt;"><strong><em>Nothing was hard work about that album, it was a bit of a dream that sort of fell out of the sky... It was almost effortless to make in that they were so good at the time, and so happy at the time with the success that they got, there was no effort in it.</em></strong></p> <p>The title of the album, &ldquo;Signing Off,&rdquo; was inspired by the process of the band members ending their claim on UK unemployment benefits &mdash; and becoming pop stars.</p> <p>The LP (Google it, Gen Y-ers), released on August 29, 1980, spent 71 weeks on the UK albums chart, peaking at number 2 and turning platinum (when doing such a thing used to mean something). It was greeted with rapture by Britain&rsquo;s music press:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>(Sounds): Five stars out of five. It is an (almost) perfect album.... It&rsquo;s rare to find a debut album so detailed, so excellently played and so packed with bite &mdash; I sometimes think it hasn&rsquo;t really happened since The Clash.</em></strong></p> <p>The album would go on to make&nbsp;<em>Q Magazine&rsquo;s</em>&nbsp;&ldquo;100 Greatest British Albums Ever&rdquo; (#83, if you&rsquo;re interested) and is featured in a book somewhat somberly titled&nbsp;<em>1001 Albums to Hear Before You Die.</em></p> <p>I think it&rsquo;s fair to say I played my part in the success of the band by spending the pocket money I had saved up on a copy of &ldquo;Signing Off&rdquo; (though the band have so far not publicly acknowledged my involvement).</p> <p>Anyway, as I am now signing off from Mauldin Economics, I felt it would be appropriate to take stock of a few of the issues I have covered&nbsp;<span style="text-decoration: line-through;">ad nauseum</span>&nbsp;repeatedly during my two-plus years working with John and his team; and I thought I&rsquo;d also take those of you unfamiliar with UB40&rsquo;s debut album through a few of the tracks (and remind those of you who know the band just how spectacular that album was).</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Track 2. King</span><a href="">&nbsp;&mdash;&nbsp;</a><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4:35</span></p> <p>The &ldquo;King&rdquo; referred to in the second track on &ldquo;Signing Off&rdquo; was, of course, Martin Luther King, Jr. The song was short on lyrics but big on impact; however, the undoubted &ldquo;King&rdquo; in markets today is once again King Dollar, and the world&rsquo;s reserve currency is making some serious waves right now, which threaten to cause chaos in world markets.</p> <p>At this point I&rsquo;ll throw things over to my friend and partner in Real Vision Television and author of&nbsp;<em>The Global Macro Investor,&nbsp;</em>Raoul Pal, who has been warning of the likelihood of a major move in the dollar for longer than just about anybody. In his most recent report, he explained the ramifications of a dollar bull market in the clearest, most concise way possible:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>(Raoul Pal): Debt dynamics, deflation, positioning and technicals all suggest that a dollar bull market of some considerable velocity and length is underway.</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>When dollar bull markets occur, emerging markets get hit.</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>When dollar bull markets occur, carry trades get unwound.</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>When dollar bull markets occur, they tend to usher in disinflationary forces as commodities and goods get re-priced.</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>The preceding three factors lead to a self-reinforcing of the dollar bull market, creating more of the same in a cycle of liquidation and bad debts, creating more demand for US dollars.</em></strong></p> <p>As I said, clear and concise.</p> <p>I watched Raoul present at the iCIO Summit this past week, and his presentation was compelling, to say the least. As he pointed out in a panel discussion with Mark Yusko, Dennis Gartman, David Rosenberg, and myself, &ldquo;When currencies begin to trend, they can do so for decades.&rdquo;</p> <p>A sobering thought.</p> <p>A look at the long-term charts of the DXY Index shows just how massive the potential reversal of this trend is; and based on Raoul&rsquo;s roadmap, the sheer size of the reversal gives us a strong hint of the degree of carnage that will be wrought upon a world in which the dollar carry trade has reached somewhere between $5 trillion and $9 trillion.</p> <p><img src="" style="width: 550px; height: 329px;" /></p> <p>Incidentally, one of those estimates is Raoul&rsquo;s, and one belongs to the BIS, and I bet your first guess as to which is which would have been wrong.</p> <p>A closer look at a shorter-term chart demonstrates the recent break clearly:</p> <p><img src="" style="width: 549px; height: 329px;" /></p> <p>The BIS report to which I refer was published last week, and it was astounding in terms of the sheer size of the dollar carry trade it depicted.</p> <p>According to the BIS, US dollar loans to China&rsquo;s banks and companies have jumped to $1.1 trillion &mdash; that&rsquo;s TRILLION &mdash; from virtually zero just five short years ago. The annual rate of increase of those loans is a mind-boggling 47%.</p> <p>However, the fun doesn&rsquo;t stop there.</p> <p>Consider Brazil, for example, where cross-border dollar credit now stands at $461 billion, or roughly 20% of GDP. For Mexico those numbers are even more eye-watering. A country with a GDP of just $1.1 trillion has outstanding cross-border dollar credit of $381 billion &mdash; or roughly 30% of GDP. Frightening.</p> <p>Meanwhile, in Russia the same metric has reached $751 billion. Why does this matter? Well, the charts below, which show the appreciation of the US dollar against those three currencies in the last five years, highlight the danger to countries that have been able to borrow seemingly endless amounts of (relatively) stable dollars to finance business operations and expansion.</p> <p>Lastly &mdash; and perhaps most importantly &mdash; witness the change in direction of the Chinese renminbi which, after trending higher against the dollar for many years (and, in the process, moving virtually everybody to the same side of the boat in the belief that a stronger Chinese currency was a given), has suddenly started to look as if it may also succumb to the renewed strength of the dollar. The only difference here being that the Chinese may actively be looking now to devalue their currency in light of the ongoing attempt by the Japanese to devalue<strong><em>their</em></strong>&nbsp;way back to competitiveness. Few thought this a likely scenario until very recently; consequently, few are positioned accordingly; and when things like that happen in the macro world, you can get some REALLY funky moves.</p> <p>When currency wars break out, they can get very nasty very quickly.</p> <p><img src="" style="width: 549px; height: 348px;" /></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="" style="width: 549px; height: 359px;" /></p> <p><img src="" style="width: 549px; height: 366px;" /></p> <p>Under no circumstances should you take your eyes off the US dollar, folks. The sheer number of places where you will witness the knock-on effects of a soaring dollar &mdash; chief amongst them emerging markets and the commodity space &mdash; will be breathtaking.</p> <p>I will write at greater length on the likely effects of the dollar&rsquo;s move on gold in a few weeks, as it warrants a piece all its own; so stay tuned for that one.</p> <p>In a series of conversations I&rsquo;ve been fortunate to have had with some of the best macro traders in the world in recent months through Real Vision Television, there has been one overarching takeaway from every one of them: macro is back, and 2015 is shaping up to be an epic year for the guys who trade these fundamental shifts. To a man, after several years of little action in the macro world, they are positively licking their lips at the potential opportunities that are headed their way next year.</p> <p>One person&rsquo;s opportunity is another person&rsquo;s crisis. You have been warned.</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;">3</span><a href="">. 12 Bar &mdash; 4:</a><span style="text-decoration: underline;">24</span></p> <p>Track 3 was an instrumental number called &ldquo;12 Bar,&rdquo; a reggae reimagining of the 12-bar blues that highlighted Brian Travers&rsquo; remarkably good saxophony skills (given his lack of attention to learning to play the instrument before forming the band).</p> <p>Obviously, during my time with Mauldin Economics, the &ldquo;bars&rdquo; which have preoccupied me have been those of the gold variety &mdash; and for the most part, their constant movement in an easterly direction.</p> <p>I have written article after article and given presentation after presentation about the dichotomy between paper and physical gold and have regularly highlighted the magnitude of the flow of gold out of the West and into strong Eastern hands. In the previous edition of this publication (&ldquo;How Could It Happen?&rdquo;), I imagined a future in which this stunning relocation of physical gold had finally mattered; and between publishing that piece and penning this one, a couple of interesting things have happened. Firstly, my friend Barry Ritholtz took a big, fat shot at me in a Bloomberg column entitled &ldquo;<a href="">The Gold Fairy Tale Fails Again</a>.&rdquo; Barry&rsquo;s article (which was entirely consistent with his very public and oft-stated thinking and was, as is always the case with Barry, very well-written) took apart what he sees as the various failed narratives in the gold markets. He began with gold&rsquo;s link to QE:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>(Barry Ritholtz): [T]he most popular gold narrative was that the Federal Reserve&rsquo;s program of quantitative easing would lead to the collapse of the dollar and hyperinflation. &ldquo;The problem with all of this was that even as the narrative was failing, the storytellers never changed their tale. The dollar hit three-year highs, despite QE. Inflation was nowhere to be found,&rdquo; I wrote at the time...</em></strong></p> <p>... moved on to the recent SGI:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>Switzerland was going to save gold based on a ballot proposal stipulating that the Swiss National Bank hold at least 20 percent of its 520-billion-franc ($538 billion) balance sheet in gold, repatriate overseas gold holdings and never sell bullion in the future. This was going to be the driver of the next leg up in gold. Except for the small fact that the &ldquo;Save Our Swiss Gold&rdquo; proposal was voted down, 77 percent to 23 percent, by the electorate....</em></strong></p> <p>... then hit upon the recent Indian import restrictions and reports of gold shortages, which Barry clearly feels are spurious, before eventually finding his way to yours truly:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>Perhaps the most egregious narrative failure came from Grant Williams of Mauldin Economics. He imagined a conversation 30 years from now about China&rsquo;s secret three-decade-long gold-buying spree, dating to November 2014. Well, we only need to wait 30 years to see if this prediction is correct.</em></strong></p> <p>Now, in response to the lighting up of my Twitter feed after Barry&rsquo;s article was posted (and my thanks to all those who kindly pointed it out to me), I would say this: Barry is right on all counts.</p> <p>For now.</p> <p>I am delighted to be able to call Barry a friend and have absolutely no problem with his calling me out on what I said. Those of us who possess sufficient hubris to deem our thoughts worthy of distribution wider than the inside of our own heads are absolutely there to be taken to task should others disagree with us. We make ourselves fair game the second we hit the wires.</p> <p>Sadly, none of us actually KNOW anything. How could we? We all take whatever inputs we find and then use them to reach our own conclusions based mostly on probability, and more often than not those conclusions are wrong.</p> <p>HOWEVER... if your logic is sound and your thought processes rigorous, being wrong is often a temporary state &mdash; something that can also be said about being right, of course. In my humble opinion, the issue with gold today is not one of narrative, as Barry suggests, but rather that the extent of the current interference in markets by our friends at the various central banks around the world has meant that being wrong (no matter which part of the financial jigsaw puzzle you may be concerned with) has never been easier &mdash; even though being right has never, in my own mind at least, been more assured in the long term, certainly as far as gold is concerned.</p> <p>As I slumped against the literary ropes, Barry threw one more punch when he suggested that the reader would &ldquo;only need to wait 30 years to see if this prediction is correct,&rdquo; but this is where I stop covering up and finally flick a jab or two of my own.</p> <p>I think the chances of having to wait 30 years to see the gold conundrum resolve itself (in materially higher prices, I might add) lie close to those of Barry&rsquo;s being invited to give the opening address at the next GATA conference. The evidence is crystal clear that significant quantities of physical gold have been pouring into Eastern vaults (due to both private- and public-sector activity); and gold is, after all, a finite resource. Not only that, but the &ldquo;weakness&rdquo; in gold (which remains roughly 500% above its turn-of-the-century low, despite the recent 30% correction) is confined to the paper market.</p> <p>Whilst this distinction between paper and real gold hasn&rsquo;t mattered up until now, there will come a day when it absolutely does &mdash; to everybody &mdash; and at that point, anyone not positioned correctly will be in a world of hurt.</p> <p><img src="" style="width: 549px; height: 296px;" /></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt; text-align: center;"><strong><em>(Charts above and below courtesy of Nick Laird at Sharelynx and Koos Jansen)</em></strong></p> <p><img src="" style="width: 549px; height: 420px;" /></p> <p>Tightness in the physical market has increased consistently as the likes of Russia continue to stockpile ever-increasing amounts of gold and as Chinese imports as well as withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange maintain a torrid pace. The only missing piece of the puzzle is the lack of any official acknowledgement that the Chinese have been doing the same thing to a far greater degree; and, as I wrote in &ldquo;<a href="">How Could It Happen?</a>&rdquo;, there is a curious demand for absolute proof from those who dispute official figures, whilst the principle of reasonable doubt continues to hold sway on the other side of the argument.</p> <p>I suspect that imbalance will right itself &mdash; possibly very soon &mdash; and when it does there will be absolutely no putting the genie back into the bottle.</p> <p>In the meantime, as Barry so confidently predicted, the Swiss Gold Initiative failed, but that was overshadowed (in my mind at least) by a couple of very interesting developments that were covered beautifully by two of my buddies, Willem Middelkoop (author of&nbsp;<a href="">The Big Reset</a>&nbsp;&mdash; a phenomenal read) and Koos Jansen.</p> <p>Firstly, Koos reported on the increasing drive to allocate the gold held within the Eurosystem:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>(Koos Jansen): [M]ost of the Eurosystem official gold reserves are allocated, and since January 2014 (which is as far as the more detailed data goes back) the unallocated gold reserves are declining, as we can see in the next chart.</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>Unfortunately we do not know what happened prior to 2014.</em></strong></p> <p><img src="" style="width: 549px; height: 346px;" /></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>Note, allocated does not mean the gold is located on own soil, but it does mean the gold is assigned to specific gold holdings, including bar numbers, whether stored on own soil or stored abroad. Unallocated gold relates to gold held without a claim on specified bar numbers; often these unallocated accounts are used for easy trading... The fact the Eurosystem discloses the ratio between its allocated and unallocated gold and, more important, the fact that the portion of allocated gold is far greater and increasing, tells me the Eurosystem is allocating as much gold as they can.</em></strong></p> <p>Secondly, another repatriation request was unearthed &mdash; this time made by perhaps the least likely source imaginable:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>(Koos Jansen): In Europe, so far, Germany has been repatriating gold since 2012 from the US and France, The Netherlands has repatriated 122.5 tonnes a few weeks ago from the US, soon after Marine Le Pen, leader of the Front National party of France, penned an open letter to Christian Noyer, governor of the Bank of France, requesting that the country&rsquo;s gold holdings be repatriated back to France; and now Belgium is making a move. Who&rsquo;s next? And why are all these countries seemingly so nervous to get their gold ASAP on own soil?</em></strong></p> <p>Funnily enough, the answer to Koos&rsquo; rhetorical question about who&rsquo;s next was answered just a few days later:</p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>(Bloomberg): The Austrian state audit court says central bank should address concentration risk of storing 80% of its gold reserves with the Bank of England, Standard reports, citing draft audit report. Court advises central bank to diversify storage locations, contract partners.</em></strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 28.5pt;"><strong><em>Austrian central bank reviewing gold storage concept, doesn&rsquo;t rule out relocating some of its gold from London to Austria: Standard cites unidentified central bank officials. Austria has 280 tons gold reserves, according to 2013 annual report. Austrian Audit Court Will Review Nation&rsquo;s Gold Reserves in U.K.</em></strong></p> <p>Say what you want about the gold price languishing below $1200 (or not, as the case may be, after this week), and say what you want about the technical picture or the &ldquo;6,000-year bubble,&rdquo; as Citi&rsquo;s Willem Buiter recently termed it; but know this: gold is an insurance policy &mdash; not a trading vehicle &mdash; and the time to assess gold is when people have a sudden need for insurance. When that day comes &mdash; and believe me, it&rsquo;s coming &mdash; the price will be the very last thing that matters. It will be purely and simply a matter of securing possession &mdash; bubble or not &mdash; and at any price.</p> <p>That price will NOT be $1200.</p> <p>A &ldquo;run&rdquo; on the gold &ldquo;bank&rdquo; (something I predicted would happen when I wrote about Hugo Chavez&rsquo;s original repatriation request back in 2011) would undoubtedly lead to one of those Warren Buffett moments when a bunch of people are left standing naked on the shore.</p> <p>It is also a phenomenon which will begin quietly before suddenly exploding into life.</p> <p>If you listen very carefully, you can hear something happening...</p> <p><em><a href="">Click here to continue reading this article from Things That Make You Go Hmmm&hellip;</a> &ndash; a free newsletter by Grant Williams, a highly respected financial expert and current portfolio and strategy advisor at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore.</em></p> </div> <div id="xvMdV95u77zU" style="clear: both;">The article <a href="" rel="permalink">Things That Make You Go Hmmm: Signing Off</a> was originally published at <a href=""></a>.</div> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="517" height="264" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bank of England Barry Ritholtz Belgium Brazil Carry Trade Central Banks China David Rosenberg Dennis Gartman Federal Reserve France Germany Google Hyperinflation Mexico Netherlands None Quantitative Easing Renminbi Reserve Currency Rosenberg Swiss National Bank Switzerland Twitter Twitter Unemployment Unemployment Benefits Warren Buffett Willem Buiter Sat, 20 Dec 2014 23:15:27 +0000 Tyler Durden 499388 at Two NYPD Cops Murdered In "Execution Style" Ambush, Shooter Commits Suicide - Live Coverage <p>The simmering cold war involving the NYPD and various elements of New York's population just went nuclear when a little before 3:00 PM, reports hit that two NYPD officers were shot in their patrol car, and subsequently died, in what has been dubbed an "execution style" ambush in Brooklyn's Bed-Stuy area. The alleged shooter was chased by police and subsequently died of a self-inflicted gun wound.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Two Police Officers have been shot in the 79 pct. please pray for them</p> <p>— NYPD 121st Precinct (@NYPD121Pct) <a href="">December 20, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>According to <a href="">Fox both officers died from </a>gunshot wounds, citing city councilman Robert Cornegy. As <a href="">RT reports</a>, the shooting took place in Brooklyn outside of the Tompkins Houses at around 3pm. The shooter reportedly came out of the building before shooting the officers patrolling the area.</p> <p>The suspect reportedly fled into a subway station where officers found him suffering from a gunshot wound that appeared to be self-inflicted. He was pronounced dead at the hospital, according to the Times.</p> <p>The manager of a nearby liquor store told the Times that he saw the officers hunched over in their cruiser and said at least one of them looked like they were shot in the head. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="333" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="588" /></a></p> <p>A possible suspect on a stretcher at the <a href="">scene via the NYP</a>.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="296" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="296" /></a></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>NYC: Man who murdered 2 NYPD cops killed his girlfriend in Baltimore this morning Picture from his Instagram Page <a href=""></a></p> <p>— NY Scanner (@NYScanner) <a href="">December 20, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>Screengrabs from the alleged shooter's <a href="">instagram page</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="333" /></p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="333" /></p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="333" /></p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="333" /></p> <p><img src="" width="500" height="333" /></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="375" /></a></p> <p>The wounded officers were rushed to Woodhull Hospital in “grave” condition as at least one of them was hit in the head. <a href="">The New York Post </a>further reports that that both officers were shot in the head at point-blank range.</p> <p>“It’s an execution,” a law enforcement source told The Post about the ambush.</p> <p>Based to preliminary reports, the uniformed officers were working overtime as part of an anti-terrorism drill as they sat in their marked police car on a Bedford–Stuyvesant, Brooklyn, street corner.</p> <p>As the NYT's David Goodman reports, the name of the shooter appears to have leaked and it is Ismail Brinsley (this is unconfirmed by the NYPD).</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>Both officers now dead; suspect identified by a senior police official as 28-yr-old named Brinsley. First name Ismail or Ishmael</p> <p>— jdavidgoodman (@jdavidgoodman) <a href="">December 20, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p>NYPD officers murdered identified as Wenjian Lieu and Rafael Ramos.</p> <p>— Rochelle Ritchie (@RochelleWJZ) <a href="">December 21, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>Some more details about the shooter and his motives <a href="">from the NY Post</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>“<strong>I’m Putting Wings on Pigs Today,” a person believed to be the gunman wrote on Instagram in a message posted just three hours before the officers were shot through their front passenger window. </strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The post included an image of silver automatic handgun with a wooden handle. Another post showed camouflage pants and blue sneakers which matched the clothing the dead gunman was wearing as his body was carried from the scene on a stretcher. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“They Take 1 Of Ours … Let’s Take 2 of Theirs,” the post continued, signing off with, “This May Be My Final Post.”</strong> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The gunman was a fugitive who had just murdered his girlfriend in Baltimore Saturday morning, sources told The Post.</p> </blockquote> <p><a href="">From the NYT</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Chief Royster said the suspect opened fire on the police officers, ran up Myrtle and went into a subway station. The man died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound to the head, Chief Royster said. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Fire Department officials said that a 911 call came in around 2:50 p.m. reporting that two people had been shot. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Charlie Hu, the manager of a liquor store at the same corner, said he saw two police officers slouched over in the front seat of their patrol car. At least one of the officers, Mr. Hu said, appeared to have been shot in the head. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The last officer killed by gunfire in the line of duty was Peter Figoski in 2011.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>More <a href="">details on the shooting</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Minutes after shooting the two officers, he, too, was dead. He fled to a nearby subway station, the G-train station at Myrtle and Willoughby avenues, where, as pursuing cops closed in, he shot himself on a crowded platform, sources told The Post. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“They engaged the guy and he did himself,” one investigator said of the gunman’s demise. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Both shooting scenes — above and below ground — were scenes of blood and terror. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“I heard shooting, — four or five shots,” ear-witness Derrick McKie, 49, told The Post of the cops’ tragic murder. “It sounded like from a single gun,” he said. Ambulances and police cars rushed to the scene, he said. “I seen them putting the cop in the ambulance. He looked messed up,” McKie, a barber, added. “He took a high caliber weapon to the face. He was lifeless…I couldn’t see where the holes was that, all I could see was blood. His body was lifeless.” </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Modal Trigg Carmen Jimenez, 32, a social worker from Bedford-Stuyvesant, was on the subway platform when the gunman ran inside, pursued by officers. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“Everything happened so quick,” said Jimenez, who is eight months pregnant. “We were standing waiting for the G train. We heard arguing from the other end of the platform. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>It looked like two cops came in there was lots of yelling and they said, ‘Everybody get down.’</p> </blockquote> <p>Scenes from the daylight execution:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Photos from the scene:</p> <p><a href="">#NYPD</a> <a href="">@NYPDnews</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Silver Surfer (@RobPulseNews) <a href="">December 20, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p>DETAILS: 2 <a href="">#NYPD</a> cops shot ‘execution style’ in <a href="">#Brooklyn</a>, shooter reportedly dead <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— RT (@RT_com) <a href="">December 20, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"> <p>Witnesses say cops were shot in their car <a href="">@ABC7NY</a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Renee Stoll (@ReneeStollABC7) <a href="">December 20, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>at the corner of Tompkins and Vernon <a href=""></a></p> <p>— ?_? (@MikeIsaac) <a href="">December 20, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>A live webcast from the scene of the crime is available below:<br /><iframe src="//" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p> NY Mayor de Blasio holds a live press conference:</p> <p><a href=";vndid=news%20live"><img src="" width="500" height="408" /></a></p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-partner="tweetdeck"><p>Mayor <a href="">@BilldeBlasio</a> on deadly attack on NYC police officers: &quot;It is an attack on all of us.&quot; <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> <p>&mdash; CBSN (@CBSNLive) <a href="">December 21, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="840" height="560" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> New York Post Twitter Twitter Sat, 20 Dec 2014 22:38:02 +0000 Tyler Durden 499394 at