en According To Goldman, This Is Why China's GDP Was Better Than Expected (Spoiler Alert: Weather) <p>It is now beyond ridiculous. </p> <p>Recall <a href="">yesterday we reported </a>that according to Japan's Economy Minister, Akira Amari, who over the weekend went full economic retard - rather than face reality that Abenomics currency devaluation printfest has crushed the consumer beyond all expectations, he blamed the weather for economic weakness: "including the effects of large typhoons and heavy rains in July and August, Japan’s 3Q economic situation is probably not a strong recovery."</p> <p>Of course, it is not his fault: he is merely piggybacking on what the US did in early 2014 when it blamed the collapse in China's credit expansion which reverberated across the globe, crushing US GDP on "snow in the winter." </p> <p>And since everyone had been wrong about Q1 GDP (not to mention Treasury yields) and was thus willing to look the other way and "accept" a grossly ridiculous explanation (because only idiots would believe that $100 billion in potential GDP was wiped out as a result of several winter storms) over fears that they too be exposed as grossly incompetent pattern-chasing penguins, blaming the weather stuck as the excuse for everything that happened since January which was somewhat unexpected, and for which the true explanation, namely that there is no global recovery, was just too unpalatable. </p> <p>So fast forward to last night, when instead of the much hoped for Chinese GDP drop - because it would certainly unleash the greatly delayed Chinese liquidity firehose so hoped for by all the BTFDers who need at least once central bailout per day to keep up the charade - China reported GDP which beat expectations, leading to many sad faces on Wall Street, and forcing Reuters to leak the infamous ECB buying corporate bonds article, since refuted, which served as the overnight ramping catalyst. </p> <p>So what is the "explanation" for this unpleasant, for once, economic beat? Why, <strong>the weather of course! </strong>From Goldman"</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>3Q GDP data was better than our and market expectations. The seasonally adjusted, non-annualized qoq growth calculated by the NBS showed a modest slowdown from 2.0% to 1.9% while our estimate of qoq annualized growth accelerated from 6.9% to 8.5%. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>September IP growth surprised the market on the upside and was mostly in line with our forecast. Among IP components, electricity production increased to 4.1% yoy, from -2.2% yoy in August. Cement production fell to -2.2% yoy, from 3.0% yoy in August.&nbsp; </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>We believe the rebound was mainly because of the disappearance of the temperature distortion which could have lowered August IP by 1 ppt or more </strong>, see EM Macro Daily - China: <strong>Cool weather likely contributed to weak August activity growth, Oct 9, 2014</strong>.</p> </blockquote> <p>Ah, the new normal, where every time central planning fails one can, and always does, just blame the weather. Because it is not reality.xls that is wrong. It is reality itself that is at fault.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="832" height="795" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> 8.5% Abenomics China New Normal Reality recovery Reuters Tue, 21 Oct 2014 14:26:45 +0000 Tyler Durden 495990 at Existing Home Sales Jump To Highest Since Sept 2013. Midwest Tumbles 5.3% <p>Existing Home Sales bounced back from the worst miss in 2014 in August to print 5.17mm SAAR - the <strong>highest since September 2013</strong>. Of course the surge is <strong>driven by Condos/Co-Ops (up 5.2%)</strong> rather than single-family homes (up 2.0%) and median home prices are the highest ever for a September at $209,700. It was not all ponies and unicorns though as <strong>Midwest saw sales plunge 5.6%</strong>. NAR's Larry Yun has some crucial insight for why home sales are rising..."<em><strong>Economic instability overseas is leading to volatility in the stock market and is causing investors to seek safer bets [in housing]</strong></em>," so we assume he is disappointe dby the 1000s of Dow points we have surged off last week's lows?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="315" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, says the improved demand for buying seen since the spring has carried into the fall. “Low interest rates and price gains holding steady led to September’s healthy increase, even with investor activity remaining on par with last month’s marked decline,” he said.</p> <p>“Traditional buyers are entering a less competitive market with fewer investors searching for available homes, but may also face a slight decline in choices due to the fact that inventory generally falls heading into the winter.”</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Regional Breakdown</strong></span></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>In the Midwest, existing-home sales declined 5.6 percent </strong>to an annual level of 1.17 million in September, and remain 4.9 percent below September 2013. The median price in the Midwest was $165,100, up 4.9 percent from a year ago.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In the Southsales increased 5.0 percent to an annual rate of 2.12 million in September, and are now 1.4 percent above September 2013. The median price in the South was $180,900, up 5.1 percent from a year ago.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In the West existing home sales jumped 7.1 percent to an annual rate of 1.20 million in September, but remain 4.0 percent below a year ago. The median price in the West was $294,200, which is 4.0 percent above September 2013.</p> </blockquote> <p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Inventories</span>, Supply, Demand</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>Properties typically stayed on the market in September longer (56 days) than last month (53 days) and a year ago (50 days). </strong>Short sales were on the market for a median of 116 days in September, while foreclosures sold in 59 days and non-distressed homes typically took 55 days. Thirty-five percent of homes sold in September were on the market for less than a month.</p> </blockquote> <p>And there is no return of the 'normal' homebuyer yet...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>The percent share of first-time buyers continues to underperform<br /> historically, remaining at 29 percent for the third consecutive month.<br /> First-time buyers have represented less than 30 percent of all buyers in<br /> 17 of the past 18 months.</strong><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p></blockquote> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p></p></blockquote> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>All-cash sales were 24 percent of transactions in September, up slightly from August (23 percent) but down from 33 percent in September of last year. </strong>Individual investors, who account for many cash sales, purchased 14 percent of homes in September, up from 12 percent last month but below September 2013 (19 percent). Sixty-three percent of investors paid cash in September.</p></blockquote> <p>And finally, some more from Yun:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>“Economic instability overseas is leading to volatility in the stock market and is causing investors to seek safer bets, </strong>which will likely keep interest rates in upcoming weeks hovering near or below where they are now,” said Yun. “This is <strong>welcoming news for consumers looking to buy,</strong> although they could temporarily become more cautious by less certain economic conditions.”&nbsp; </p> </blockquote> <p>So let's hope stocks crash?</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="959" height="504" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Foreclosures Volatility Tue, 21 Oct 2014 14:12:42 +0000 Tyler Durden 495989 at And The NYSE Breaks... <p>Well it wouldn't be the US equity market if something didn't break...</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="622" height="138" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <ul> <li><strong>*NYSE MKT CASH EQUITIES MARKET IS EXPERIENCING AN ISSUE</strong></li> <li><strong>*NYSE: ISSUE IN PROCESSING MARKET QUOTES IN NASDAQ UTP SYMBOLS</strong></li> </ul> <p>Another day another ramp that disable retail from selling...</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="473" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Coincidence?</p> NASDAQ Tue, 21 Oct 2014 13:51:05 +0000 Tyler Durden 495988 at Hong Kong Chief: Can't Have Democracy Or The Poor Will Have A Say <p>Clearly, Leung Chung-Ying, Hong Kong's embattled leader, did not get the Jean-Claude Juncker memo that <em>"when things are bad, you have to lie."</em> As <a href=";_r=1">The NY Times reports</a>, Leung - rather stunningly - said overnight that <strong>it was unacceptable to allow his successors to be chosen in open elections, in part because doing so would risk giving poorer residents a dominant voice in politics</strong>. Instead, rather unsurprisingly, he backed Beijing's position that all candidates to succeed him as chief executive, the top post in the city, must be screened by a "broadly representative" nominating committee appointed by Beijing, and offered several <strong>thinly veiled warnings on Monday that it was risky for the protesters to try the patience of the national authorities</strong>.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="366" height="231" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=";_r=1"><em>As The NY Times reports,</em></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>Mr. Leung’s blunt remarks reflect a widely held view among the Hong Kong elite that the general public cannot be trusted to govern the city well.</strong> His statements appeared likely to draw fresh criticism from the democratic opposition, and to inflame the street struggle over Hong Kong’s political future.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Representatives of his government are scheduled to hold televised talks with student leaders of the protests, who have said that Mr. Leung was defending a political system stacked against ordinary citizens.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Mr. Leung said that if “you look at the meaning of the words <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>‘broadly representative,’ it’s not numeric representation.”</strong></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">“You have to take care of all the sectors in Hong Kong as much as you can,” he said, “and if it’s entirely a numbers game and numeric representation, then obviously you would be talking to half of the people in Hong Kong who earn less than $1,800 a month.”</span></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">“Then you would end up with that kind of politics and policies,” he continued.</span></strong></p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *<br />Finally, we also note, Leung comments on the drivers of the pro-democracy movement...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p><strong>He also raised again the suspicions of his government and of Beijing that “foreign forces” had played a role in the street protests,</strong> although he declined repeatedly to identify those forces or provide any examples.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>“I didn’t overhear it in a teahouse, and it’s something that concerns us,” </strong>he said. “It’s something that we need to deal with.”</p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *<br />Mr. Leung offered several <strong>thinly veiled warnings on Monday that it was risky for the protesters to try the patience of the national authorities.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="365" height="281" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Hong Kong Tue, 21 Oct 2014 13:43:59 +0000 Tyler Durden 495987 at McDonalds Sales Plunge In Worst Month Since 2003 Following Dollar Meal "Sticker Shock" <p>Moments ago, McDonalds not only released earnings and revenues, both of which missed - something which was largely expected since the backward looking data had been telegraphed by MCD's <a href="">recent global selling collapse </a>- blanketed by atrocious commentary, but it disclosed its September global retail sales which were for lack of a better word, a disaster, after reporting global sales which dropped 3.8%, below the 3.2% expected, and the worst global month since at least 2003. The pain was everywhere, with Europe plunging 4.2% (est -0.9%), Asia down 7.5%, and the US down a whopping 4.1%, <strong>far below the 2.8% expected, and also the worst month in over a decade</strong>. </p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="385" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In fact, McDonalds sales in the US have have now gone a whopping 11 months without posting a positive sales month<strong>, the longest stretch on record!</strong></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="386" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But while collapsing MCD sales are a combination of both the insolvent US consumer, who can no longer afford to buy either MCD or Coke (as we commented earlier) especially after purchasing the latest and greatest iThing on credit, as well as shifting tastes and eating the "<em>cool food du jour"</em>, things are only going to get worse from here. </p> <p>Because in a world that is allegedly flooded with deflation, the one place where everyone considered safe for "dollar meals", just got more expensive. <a href="">Bloomberg reports</a>: </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Mike Hiner used to take his grandsons to McDonald’s (MCD) when they wanted a treat. With higher wage and food costs pushing up prices at the Golden Arches, he’s increasingly taking them to IHOP, Denny’s and Chili’s instead. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The loss of bargain-seeking customers like Hiner underscores a growing challenge for McDonald’s Corp.: <strong>While the company still offers several items for $1, its menu is quietly getting more expensive. McDonald’s said its prices were up about 3 percent through the end of June compared with 12 months earlier. </strong>That’s more than the 2.5 percent gain in prices for food Americans purchased away from their homes in the year through August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The chain’s diminishing appeal among budget diners -- coupled with rising meat costs -- are projected to take a bite out of third-quarter earnings due to be reported tomorrow. Analysts estimate that McDonald’s revenue fell 1.8 percent to $7.2 billion in the period. Net income, which also were hurt by a food-safety scare in China, slid 11 percent to $1.36 billion, according to the projections.</p> </blockquote> <p>And sure enough, see the charts above. But that is only the beginning:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>Some Americans are extremely price sensitive, <strong>and any increases may send them elsewhere, said John Gordon, principal at San Diego-based Pacific Management Consulting Group, an adviser to restaurants and franchisees.</strong> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“<strong>If you encourage and kind of seed the notion that you can come in for a couple bucks and get some food -- and then you can’t do that anymore -- there’s bound to be a reaction</strong>,” he said.</p> </blockquote> <p>There is also bound to be a reaction when the already broke US consumer maxes out their credit card on a telephone and forgets to eat. </p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The result has been that fast-food chains, long thought of as the cheapest place to grab a quick bite, may now have that reputation working against them, said Joel Cohen, president of Cohen Restaurant Marketing Group in Raleigh, North Carolina. <strong>The higher prices may be driving some customers to seek alternatives either at fast-casual chains like Panera Bread Co. (PNRA) or even at sit-down places, he said.</strong> </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>“It’s sticker shock,” Cohen said. “You’re up at price where you could just about be dining at a casual-dining restaurant.”</p> </blockquote> <p>And when you hear the phrase "sticker shock" in the same sentence as a McDonalds dollar meal, you know the end is in sight.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1028" height="660" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bureau of Labor Statistics China Cohen McDonalds Tue, 21 Oct 2014 13:24:32 +0000 Tyler Durden 495986 at Snow-Plough Driver In Total CEO Plane Crash Was Drunk, Investigators Say <p>The <a href="">awful news overnight of Total CEO Christophe de Margarie&#39;s death in a freak plane crash</a> caused by the jet hitting a snow-plough on the runway has taken a darker twist. As <a href="">RT reports</a>, <strong>Russian prosecutors claim the driver of the snowplough was drunk</strong>, and the<strong> air traffic controller for the jet was an intern</strong>. However, his lawyer, however, says he was completely sober, due to a heart condition preventing him from drinking claiming &quot;he was so sober at the time of the crash,&quot; adding &quot;<em><strong>we don&#39;t want the blame for the accident falling on an ordinary man</strong></em>.&quot; Investigators added that &quot;bad weather conditions and the possibility of a mistake by the pilot will also be considered.&quot; ITAR-TASS reports that Putin has sent his condolences and reached out to Francois Hollande, &quot;<strong><em>Vladimir Putin has long known de Margerie and had a close working relationship with him</em></strong>.&quot;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The snowplough driver survived (while reports last night said he perished) - If proven guilty, the sentence for the driver under Russian law could be up to seven years in prison.</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 338px; height: 320px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Video from the terible accident scene:</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><em>As RT reports,</em></a></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Russian prosecutors claim the driver of the snowplow which crashed with Total CEO Christophe de Margerie&rsquo;s jet was drunk. His lawyer, however, says he was completely sober, due to a heart condition preventing him from drinking.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;My client is suffering from an acute heart condition; he does not drink at all and his relatives and friends can testify to that,&rdquo; Aleksandr Karabanov, the lawyer, said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;He was sober at the time of the crash,&rdquo;</strong> he also said, adding that a number of lawyers will be involved in Martynenkov&rsquo;s defense. <strong>&ldquo;We don&rsquo;t want the blame for the accident to fall on an ordinary man,&rdquo; he added.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Karabanov also made clear that he will insist on an independent expertise to determine the presence of alcohol in his client&#39;s bloodstream.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Russia&rsquo;s Investigative Committee Vladimir Markin also told the reporters on Tuesday adding &ldquo;there is a possibility that a number of airport staff will be suspended from carrying out their duties pending criminal investigation.&rdquo; He also did not rule out the possibility of new arrests being made during the course of the investigation.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>It has also been determined that the taxiing shortly before the crash was being coordinated by a traffic control intern,</strong> RIA Novosti was told by a source inside Vnukovo. The official spokesman for the airport has declined to comment. Air traffic control personnel will be tested for alcohol and drugs, the investigators said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The black boxes have been uncovered and are being processed at this time.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>And Putin has expressed condolences...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed his condolences over the Total CEO&#39;s death. TASS cited his spokesman as saying that &quot;Vladimir Putin has long known de Margerie and had a close working relationship with him.&quot;</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;I am shocked at the news,&rdquo; the Russian leader conveyed to French President Francois Hollande.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&ldquo;I ask that you offer my sincerest wishes and condolences to the friends and families of Christophe de Margerie &ndash; a renowned French entrepreneur, who has <strong>helped spearhead a great number of join projects, which have been the source of a long and fruitful partnership between Russia and France in the energy sphere</strong>,&rdquo; Putin continued.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>&ldquo;When we lost Christophe de Margerie, we lost a real friend to our nation, and we shall hold his memory very dear.&rdquo;</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>Additionally, <a href="">Interfax reports</a> that the black box flight recorders from the Falcon jet will not be opened before French experts&#39; arrival...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><strong>Experts of the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) will open the flight recorders of the Falcon plane which crashed at the Vnukovo airport late on Monday after French experts&#39; arrival, an IAC spokesman said.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;The IAC has made the<strong> decision not to open the flight recorders before French experts&#39; arrival</strong>. Further investigation will proceed in cooperation with French colleagues, in compliance with the ICAO standards and with an agreement between the IAC and France&#39;s BEA air accident investigation bureau, and on the basis of long-established cooperation,&quot; the spokesman said.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>He said the BEA has appointed a commissioner for investigating the Falcon crash and five advisors, representing the BEA, Dessault - the plane&#39;s developer, and the air company Unijet. They are expected to arrive in Moscow late on Tuesday.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The BEA said that three experts would be sent to Moscow on Tuesday.</strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The flight recorders have been retrieved and taken to the IAC&#39;s research and technical center.</strong></p> </blockquote> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="650" height="308" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Falcon France Vladimir Putin Tue, 21 Oct 2014 13:03:34 +0000 Tyler Durden 495985 at Oil Tops $83, Gold Over $1255 As Commodities Spike Higher & Riyal Slides To 2009 Lows <p>It is unclear what the catalyst is - aside from the bounce back from The FT's rejection of Reuters rumor-spreading about ECB corporate bond buying but instead of the usual morning smackdown, precious metals are spiking higher. <strong>Gold hit $1255 - its highest in over 5 weeks). </strong>Oil is also spiking higher, <strong>WTI just broke above $83</strong> (so much for that consumer tax cut?)<strong><br /></strong></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="628" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And oil is spiking too...</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="312" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>For now its unclear what is driving this BUT we do note that Saudi's Riyal has tumbled notably away from its peg in recent days... weakest since Jan 2009</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="318" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="959" height="1003" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bond Precious Metals Reuters Tue, 21 Oct 2014 12:48:16 +0000 Tyler Durden 495984 at First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side In Lead At 45% <p><a href="">First Swiss Gold Poll Shows Pro-Gold Side In Lead At 45%</a></p> <p>The first poll of how the Swiss people will vote in the “Save Our&nbsp;<a href="">Swiss Gold</a>” initiative on November 30th shows that the Swiss are leaning towards voting for the pro-gold initiative.&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" /></a></p> <p><em><strong>Gold Initiative Poll Results - &nbsp;20 Minuten</strong></em></p> <p>The poll had quite a large sample of 13,397 people from all over Switzerland who participated in the first phase of the&nbsp;20 Minuten&nbsp;online survey on October 15.&nbsp;</p> <p>The poll shows that 45% approve the Swiss gold initiative and 39% are against. There are 29% firm yes voters and 28% firm no voters (see graph). The poll shows 16% are leaning towards a yes or are “more yes” and 11% are leaning towards a no or are “more no.”&nbsp;</p> <p>20 Minuten or 20 Minutes&nbsp;in English, is a very popular German language free daily newspaper and online paper in Switzerland, published in a tabloid format and online.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" /></a><br /><em><strong>Swiss Flag</strong></em></p> <p>The political scientist Lucas Leeman and Fabio Wasserfallen organised the survey according to demographic, geographic and political variables and it is weighted so that the sample corresponds as closely as possible the structure of the voting population according to&nbsp;<a href="">20 Minuten</a>.</p> <p>There are a lot of swing voters with 16% undecided and not wanting to commit themselves.</p> <p>The poll suggests that the Swiss gold initiative remains tightly in the balance and may be much closer than is commonly expected.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" /></a><br /><em><strong>Swiss Gold Reserves</strong></em></p> <p>Some have suggested that as this was an online poll, caution may be needed as the 13,397 people polled are likely to be more digital savvy and younger. However, it is still believed to give a good barometer of sentiment just five weeks before the poll and before there has been concerted campaigning by either side.</p> <p>20 Minuten&nbsp;is distributed to commuters at over 150 train stations across the country. Since September 2004, the German language edition has been the most widely read daily newspaper in Switzerland, surpassing&nbsp;Blick. The audited distribution in 2004 was 329,242 (WEMF AG) and it had a readership of an estimated 782,000 according to Wikipedia.</p> <p>The three key measures of the “Save Our Swiss Gold” initiative are the following:</p> <p>* an increase in gold holdings of the SNB to reflect an allocation of 20% of total reserves (today gold accounts for 7.7% of total reserves)<br />* and a moratorium on the sale of Swiss gold reserves<br />?* the repatriation of Swiss gold reserves - some of which are believed to be in the UK and Canada</p> <p>See&nbsp;<a href="">Essential Guide To Gold Bullion Storage In Switzerland</a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>GOLDCORE MARKET UPDATE</strong><br />Today’s AM fix was USD 1,251.75, EUR 978.85 and GBP 774.17&nbsp;per ounce.<br />Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,241.00, EUR 972.65 and GBP 769.71 per ounce.<br />&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;<br />Gold climbed $8.30 or 0.67% to $1,246.10 per ounce. Silver rose $0.16 or 0.93% to $17.44 per ounce yesterday.&nbsp;</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" /></a><br /><em><strong>Gold in U.S. Dollars - YTD, 2014 (Thomson Reuters)</strong></em></p> <p>Gold in Singapore rose above $1,250/oz, after rising 0.7% &nbsp;in the previous session, prior to capping once London opened. At the open in London, gold soared to the highest in over five weeks as the greenback pulled back.</p> <p>Gold for immediate delivery rose 0.4% t to $1,251.63 an ounce by 9:46 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. It hit $1,253.85, the highest since September 10. Gold for December delivery gained 0.6% to $1,251.60 on the Comex in New York.</p> <p>The dollar dropped for a second day, reaching the lowest level in nearly a week.&nbsp;</p> <p>Markets are adjusting estimates back for when the U.S. Federal Reserve may raise interest rates.&nbsp;</p> <p>Futures traders put the odds of a U.S. rate increase at 46% by October 2015, down from 50% at the end of last week.&nbsp;</p> <p>Despite very robust global demand, particularly from China and India, gold ETF holdings fell to a five-year low yesterday.</p> <p>There are a number of gold friendly factors supporting prices including geopolitical and economic uncertainty and still dovish Fed and other central bank policies.</p> <p><strong><span style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">Get Breaking News and Updates on the Gold Market</span><span style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">&nbsp;</span><a href="" style="font-size: 1em; line-height: 1.3em;">Here</a></strong></p> <p>We previously covered this the Swiss gold initiative <a href="">here </a>and <a href="">here</a></p> <p><a href=""></a></p> China Federal Reserve India Newspaper Reuters Switzerland Tue, 21 Oct 2014 12:41:40 +0000 GoldCore 495983 at Europe Demands Banks Hand Over Their Lunch Money Following Swiss Franc Libor Rigging <p><strong><em>...And don't do it again!</em></strong></p> <p>Having confirmed that RBS, UBS, JPMorgan,,and Credit Suisse operated a cartell to manipulate bid-ask spreads of Swiss Franc libor, the European Commission has unleashed unmerciless vengeance on these law-breaking institutions:</p> <p><strong>JPMorgan fined EUR 72.2 Million, UBS fined EUR 12.7 Million, Credit Suisse fined EUR 9.17 Million, &amp; RBS Nothing (for whistle-blowing)</strong>.</p> <p>The commission found that these four entities 'influenced' interest rate derivatives prices between March 2008 and July 2009 - probably the most volatile and price-sensitive period of American financial history.. and they get fined "an hour's pay?" </p> <p>Nothing ever changes...</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Another oldie but goodie. <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Rudolf E. Havenstein (@RudyHavenstein) <a href="">October 16, 2014</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="353" height="277" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Credit Suisse LIBOR RBS Swiss Franc Twitter Twitter Tue, 21 Oct 2014 12:33:10 +0000 Tyler Durden 495982 at FT Rejects Reuters Unsourced Trial Balloon About ECB Buying Corporate Bonds, Futures Refuse To Plunge <p>Precisely <a href="">half an hour ago</a>, we mocked the overnight Reuters trial balloon about ECB corporate bond buying, whose <em>only purpose was to send futures higher</em>, when not only did we question the credibility of the report based on "<strong>one person familiar with the work inside the ECB, speaking on condition of anonymity</strong>" and said that now "we await Germany to throw up all over what is a clear Reuters trial balloon floated by "one person familiar with the work inside the ECB, speaking on condition of anonymity" to see what the market reaction is to even more stimulus (as if it is unclear)." Well, it wasn't Germany. At least not yet. It was Reuters' competitor in the coverage of ECB rumors and innuendo, the FT, which moments ago blasted this, via Bloomberg:</p> <ul> <li><strong>ECB SAID NOT TO HAVE PUT CORPORATE BOND BUYING ON AGENDA: FT</strong></li> </ul> <p>So just in case anyone forgot how credible the Reuters rumor mill is when bailing out European risk (think summer of 2011 and 2012), here is a stark reminder.</p> <p><em>More from the FT:</em></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"> <div></div> </div> <div class="quote_end"> <div></div> </div> <p>The European Central Bank has not yet put the issue of buying corporate bonds on the agenda for its December policy meeting, according to two people familiar with the matter. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The euro weakened and shares rose in Italy, Spain and Germany jumped after Reuters reported two sources as saying that the policy making governing council could discuss the possibility of buying the assets at its final meeting of 2014, reports Claire Jones. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>While corporate bond purchases are an option that policy makers have discussed in recent months, one of the people familiar with the matter said preparations for buying the debt have not intensified in recent weeks. </p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>However, the person said corporate bond purchases are being considered, along with other ideas, as a possible means to extend the ECB's programme of private sector asset purchases - which at the moment are confined to asset-backed securities and covered bonds - should inflation and growth in the eurozone continue to disappoint.</p> </blockquote> <p>Of course, in a normal world, the entire overnight ES gain would evaporate in seconds, even as the origianl "source" has long since sold out of their risk. In this centrally-planned market, however, the ramp will stick. Just because.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="600" height="473" /></a></p> Asset-Backed Securities Bond European Central Bank Eurozone Germany Italy Reuters Tue, 21 Oct 2014 12:08:01 +0000 Tyler Durden 495981 at