en "It's Really Broken" - Divergences & Decouplings Dominate Week In Stocks, Bonds, FX <p>Distracted much?</p> <p><iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="" width="560"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>US Macro data dumped this week...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 316px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Something odd is going on... VIX is down 6 days in a row but stocks are not playing along...</p> <p><a href=""><img height="314" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Bond-Stock correlation collapsed this week...</p> <p><a href=""><img height="291" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Stocks and bonds decoupled last week on what appears to have been rate-locks ahead of the large Saudi issuance...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 313px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Yuan&#39;s collapse overnight hasn&#39;t quite rippled through yet... just like last week...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 324px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>And today saw USD strength and stocks strength...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 312px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>8 days in a row and the ubiquitous end of day ramp has not occurred (chatter about SEC probes of end of day ETF rebalancing shenanigans remain unconfirmed for now)...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 328px;" /></a></p> <p>We did warn...</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Algos hoping to frontrun a 3:30pm ramp which may again not come</p> <p>&mdash; zerohedge (@zerohedge) <a href="">October 21, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>On the week, futures show the craziness, dips bought but lows retested...China session weakness (red arrows)</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 342px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Trannies ended the week red,, but the rest (even The Dow) managed to scramble back into the green for the weekend...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 441px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>The USD Index rose for the 3rd straight week led CAD weakness (and EUR)...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 317px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Pushing the USD to the highest sicne Feb 2nd and higher on the year...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 314px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Bonds rallied all week, with the same systemic pattern and a notable flattening of the curve...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 315px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Gold was the week&#39;s winner among commodities with silver second, despite dollar strength, as copper and crude slipped...</p> <p><a href=""><img alt="" src="" style="width: 600px; height: 320px;" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em>Charts: Bloomberg</em></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="600" height="75" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> China Copper Crude Yuan Fri, 21 Oct 2016 20:03:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 575670 at Head Of Democratic Party Makes Stunning Admission: "The People Are In Despair About How Things Are" <p>While readers may be used to tin-foil-hat-wearing digitial dickweeds and alt-right bloggers seeing through the veil of ignorance and media hype that hides a considerably uglier economic reality than The White House (and the stock market) might suggest, <strong>many Democrats may be shocked to discover that none other than now-acting chair of the Democratic National Committee Donna Brazile agrees</strong>...</p> <p>In an email to Clinton campaign chair John Podesta from February 2016, released Friday by WikiLeaks...</p> <p><a href=""><img height="237" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>Donna Brazile <a href=""><em>(who has had a tough week trying to defend her cheating allegations for giving Hillary debate questions)</em></a> admits...</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p><em>&ldquo;I think<strong> people are more in despair</strong> about how things are - <strong>yes new jobs but they are low wage jobs</strong>... HOUSING is a huge issue. Most <strong>people pay half of what they make to rent</strong>,&rdquo;</em></p> </blockquote> <p><a href=""><strong>S</strong></a><strong>uch honesty from such a vocal and public cheerleader for the Obama administration is sure to embarrass the White House,</strong> and, <a href="">as Lifezette notes,</a> contradicts the official Democratic Party line that Obama is some sort of economy-saving superhero.</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>Brazile&rsquo;s comments also underscore the extent to which <span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Democrats are perfectly happy to lie to the public in furtherance of their toxic, divisive agenda.</strong></span></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><em><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>&quot;Under President Obama, the economy has experienced a record 70 straight months of private-sector job growth. Over 14 million jobs!&quot; </strong></span></em>Brazile tweeted almost exactly one month before she sent her email to Podesta.</p> </blockquote> <p>&nbsp;</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Under President Obama, the economy has experienced a record 70 straight months of private-sector job growth. Over 14 million jobs!</p> <p>&mdash; Donna Brazile (@donnabrazile) <a href="">January 13, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>&nbsp;</p> <p>*&nbsp; *&nbsp; *</p> <p>As a reminder, in a recent study entitled <em>&quot;Problems Unsolved and a Nation Divided&quot;</em> (study can be viewed in its entirety at the end of this post), Harvard University points out that, despite claims of an &quot;Obama Recovery,&quot; in fact, the <strong>U.S. economy has continued to deteriorate in the aftermath of the &quot;great recession.&quot;</strong>&nbsp; Among other things, Harvard attributes the economic deterioration to a <strong>&quot;lack of economic strategy, especially at the federal level&quot;...</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>The U<strong>.S. political system was once the envy of many nations. Over the last two decades, however, it has become our greatest liability. </strong>Americans no longer trust their political leaders, and political polarization has increased dramatically. Americans are increasingly frustrated with the U.S. political system. Independents now account for 42% of Americans, a greater percentage than that of either major party.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong>The political system is no longer delivering good results for the average American. </strong>Numerous indicators point to failure to compromise and deliver practical solutions to the nation&rsquo;s problems. Political polarization has especially made it harder to build consensus on sensible economic policies that address key U.S. weaknesses. It is at the root of our inability to progress on the consensus Eight-Point Plan.</p> </blockquote> <p>With that, here&#39;s a look at some of our favorite charts.<strong> </strong></p> <p><a href=""><img alt="Harvard" height="415" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>Harvard argues that one of the primary causes of the sustained economic downturn has been a <strong>lack of an economic strategy from the federal government which has instead chosen to rely exclusively on accomodative Fed policies.</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><div class="quote_start">&nbsp;</div> <div class="quote_end">&nbsp;</div> <p><strong>The U.S. lacks an economic strategy, especially at the federal level. The implicit strategy has been to trust the Federal Reserve to solve our problems through monetary policy.</strong></p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="276" height="131" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Federal Reserve Monetary Policy None Obama Administration President Obama Reality Recession recovery White House Fri, 21 Oct 2016 19:55:37 +0000 Tyler Durden 575642 at World Economy Wobbles As Deep-State-Shill Distracts <p><em><a href="">Authored by Bonner &amp; Partners Bill Bonner</a>, <a href="">annotated by Acting-Man&#39;s Pater Tenebrarum</a>,</em></p> <h3><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Scams and Flimflams</strong></span></h3> <p>BALTIMORE &ndash; For weeks, the top news headlines have been about politics. And politics has been all about the Republican Party candidate for president of the United States, Donald Trump.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="media" class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-47540" height="419" src="" width="600" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">Two very different elections&hellip;</p> <p>The Establishment, the media, and most right-thinking people look around and sniff the air. Something stinks. And the smell, they say, is coming from that skunk, Trump.</p> <p>Meanwhile, Hillary, all greased up with expensive perfume, glides by &ndash; all her double dealing, her millions in Wall Street speaking fees, her crony friends and supporters.</p> <p>She and her husband have a <a href="">combined net worth of $110 million</a> &ndash; after a career spent devoted almost entirely to &ldquo;public service.&rdquo; Who asks where the money came from? Instead, the headlines are all about poor Donald.</p> <p>For better or for worse, the 2016 presidential campaign was all about him. Not about his policies. Not about calm analysis of what was wrong and how it could be fixed.</p> <p>It was always about him. And now, the nation&rsquo;s attention is still focused on him and his peccadilloes &ndash; rather than Ms. Clinton and her scams, corruptions, and Deep State flimflams.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="hillaryclinton-scandals-vs-donaldtrump-attrib-afbranco-comicallyincorrect-051716" class="aligncenter wp-image-47539" height="458" src="" width="640" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">Let&rsquo;s focus on the really important stuff&hellip;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p><strong><em>&ldquo;Remember, it&rsquo;s a rigged system.&nbsp; It&rsquo;s a rigged election,&rdquo;</em></strong> said the candidate over the weekend. Is the election really rigged?&nbsp; Probably not in the way Mr. Trump intends listeners to believe. But the &ldquo;system&rdquo; is so rigged that the election results hardly matter.</p> <p>A real conservative would shift the debate away from fanny pinching and other ungentlemanly comportment to how it is rigged.&nbsp; Americans want to know.&nbsp; How come the economy no longer grows as it used to?&nbsp; How come most Americans are poorer today than they were in 1999?&nbsp; How come we no longer win our wars?</p> <p><strong>He would explain to listeners that much of the rigging took place while Hillary and Bill Clinton were collecting more than $150 million in speaking fees, telling us how to improve the world!</strong></p> <p>Then, he would help listeners put two and two together &ndash; explaining how the fake dollar corrupted the nation&rsquo;s economy and its politics, too. And he would offer real solutions. As it is, nobody seems to care. Not the stock market. Not the bond market. Not commentators. Not Hillary. Not Donald. Nobody.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3><u><strong>Dark Movement</strong></u></h3> <p>As long-suffering&nbsp;<em>Diary</em>&nbsp;readers will know, the global economy now depends on three things:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><ol> <li>Rising U.S. asset prices &ndash; The world&rsquo;s wealthy have parked much of their money in American lots.</li> <li>Low consumer price inflation &ndash; If inflation rates spike unexpectedly, the bond market will implode. Trillions of dollars of imaginary wealth will be lost.</li> <li>China&rsquo;s economy &ndash; China is the No. 1 buyer of commodities and the No. 1 shipper of finished goods. When it goes down, so do a lot of other things.</li> </ol> </blockquote> <p>Let&rsquo;s look at them in order.</p> <p>U.S. markets will remain stable until they become unstable. That pretty much sums it up. When the next crisis will come is anyone&rsquo;s guess; we&rsquo;re surprised it hasn&rsquo;t already come.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><a href="" target="_blank"><img alt="1-spx" class="aligncenter wp-image-47535" height="283" src="" width="640" /></a></p> <p style="text-align: center;">Bubble trouble is bound to sneak up on us soon&hellip; &ndash; click to enlarge.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But there is a dark movement afoot for the world&rsquo;s central banks to buy stocks in addition to the bonds they&rsquo;re already buying under QE, and in almost unlimited quantities (see our comments on former Treasury Secretary <a href="">Larry Summers&rsquo; wacky proposal&nbsp;here</a>).</p> <p>That may help keep stock prices high and maintain the illusion of stability. As for higher levels of consumer price inflation, they are surely coming, too. But not necessarily anytime soon.</p> <p>With the economy slowing, the velocity of money &ndash; the rate at which money is used to buy and sell stuff &ndash; tends to slow down, too. The fewer transactions there are, the less upward pressure there is on prices.</p> <p>Plus, wages are more or less stagnant or falling in the developed world. And there is still a huge supply of labor available in the developing world for less than $20 a day. If we&rsquo;re waiting for labor costs to push up consumer prices, we could have a long wait.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><a href="" target="_blank"><img alt="2-purchasing-power" class="aligncenter wp-image-47536" height="370" src="" width="640" /></a></p> <p style="text-align: center;">It may be a long wait, but we trust in the effectiveness of the &ldquo;guardians of the currency&rdquo;. When it comes to debasing its value,&nbsp; they are second to none &ndash; click to enlarge.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <h3><u><strong>The China Factor</strong></u></h3> <p>Which brings us to China.&nbsp; An alarming report in Friday&rsquo;s&nbsp;Financial Times&nbsp;warned us that &ldquo;<em>China exports fall sharply as concerns over demand grow.</em>&rdquo; Chinese exports are falling &ndash; in dollar terms &ndash; at a rate of 10% a year.</p> <p>China buys raw materials. It sells finished products. It is the greatest &ldquo;export-led&rdquo; success story of all time.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="china" class="aligncenter wp-image-47537" height="450" src="" width="600" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">As China goes, so goes the world?</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>But if China can&rsquo;t sell its products, it can&rsquo;t afford to buy resources&hellip; resource prices plunge&hellip; and consumer prices follow, aggravating weak demand with lower prices, falling money velocity&hellip; gloom, doom&hellip; recession, depression&hellip; and worldwide deflation.</p> <p>Then, as the world&rsquo;s attention is fixed on the sordid business of the U.S. election, with its contest between reality-TV Big Shot Donald Trump vs. Deep State Shill Hillary Clinton, the world economy wobbles.</p> <p>Stay tuned.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: center;"><img alt="chairman-tienanmen-square-beijing" class="aligncenter wp-image-47543" height="494" src="" width="640" /></p> <p style="text-align: center;">Forbidden City in Beijing.</p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="588" height="356" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bond Central Banks China Consumer Prices Donald Trump fixed Global Economy headlines Larry Summers Money Velocity None Recession Fri, 21 Oct 2016 19:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 575660 at Did Clinton Press Secretary Get Caught On Tape 'Rigging' Media Questions? <p>In the latest Clinton campaign sham, <strong>Press Secretary Nick Merrill can be seen in the video below blatantly feeding questions to reporters during a post-debate "press conference" Wednesday night on Air Hillary.</strong>&nbsp; The first question is planted with Andrea Mitchell (aka "old faithful") when Nick Merrill shows her his cell phone.&nbsp; "Shockingly" Mitchell gets to ask the very next question and it's related to Trump calling Hillary a "nasty woman" during the debate.&nbsp; Then, moments later, Merrill can be seen signaling another reporter after seemingly sending him/her a text.</p> <p>Serious, why doesn't Nick Merrill just ask the questions himself so we can all just do away with this charade?</p> <p><iframe src="" width="600" height="337" frameborder="0"></iframe></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>You better behave, Andrea Mitchell, he's always watching you...</p> <p><img src="" alt="Clinton Mook" width="600" height="474" /></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="628" height="320" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Merrill Fri, 21 Oct 2016 19:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 575629 at "Prepare For More Volatility As Yield 'Hunger Games' Comes To An End" <p><em>Submitted by Jeffrey Miller of <a href="">Stock Research</a></em></p> <p><strong>May The Odds Be Ever In Your Favor</strong></p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;"><strong>President Snow</strong>: &nbsp;Seneca... why do you think we have a winner?<br /><strong>Seneca Crane</strong>: &nbsp;What do you mean?<br /><strong>President Snow</strong>: I mean, why do we have a winner? I mean, if we just wanted to intimidate the districts, why not round up twenty-four of them at random and execute them all at once? Be a lot faster.<br />[Seneca just stares, confused]<br /><strong>President Snow</strong>: &nbsp;Hope.<br /><strong>Seneca Crane</strong>: &nbsp;Hope?<br /><strong>President Snow</strong>: &nbsp;Hope. It is the only thing stronger than fear. A little hope is effective. A lot of hope is dangerous. A spark is fine, as long as it&#39;s contained.<br /><strong>Seneca Crane</strong>: &nbsp;So...?<br /><strong>President Snow</strong>: &nbsp;So, CONTAIN it.</p> <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <em>The Hunger Games, 2012</em></p> <p>Just like President Snow, I think Chairwoman Yellen is playing a dangerous game with investors, giving them just a little bit of hope that someday monetary policy will normalize, that Fed Funds rates won&rsquo;t be stuck right near zero forever. But a lot of hope, a real conviction that the Fed was going to embark on a hiking cycle, would be dangerous for financial markets, in particular bonds of all kinds, which are trading at levels that assume that the Fed never really will follow through. Hope has been contained. For now.</p> <p>But what would happen to bond markets if that hope turned into conviction that the Fed was really going to raise, or, even more dangerous (and much more likely), that credit spreads were going to widen?&nbsp; Then we&rsquo;d see massive losses in bonds, in particular high yield CCC bonds, which are currently performing poorly from a credit perspective but doing very well from a price perspective.<br />&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-left: 40px;"><strong>Effie Trinket</strong>: Happy Hunger Games, and may the odds be ever in your favor.</p> <p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; <em>The Hunger Games, 2012</em></p> <p>Right now, if you are long high yield bonds, the odds of making a decent return going forward are definitely not in your favor.&nbsp; Credit spreads are tight, and they are tight to an ultra-low risk-free rate. Not a good combination. At the same time, the fundamentals of the companies that issued those bonds are deteriorating, and the market for new issuance of high yield bonds is drying up. If you own a high-yield ETF today, you are making the bet that these spreads will tighten further, which is really a bet that the underlying fundamentals of these companies will get better not worse.&nbsp; Seven or eight years into a recovery, when corporate earnings have been down for 5 quarters in a row, do you really think the odds are still in your favor?</p> <div> <div><a> <img alt="Picture" src="" /> </a></div> </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div style="margin-left: 80px;"><strong>Effie Trinket</strong>: Two hundred miles per hour and you can barely feel a thing. I think it&#39;s one of the wonderful things about this opportunity, that even though you&#39;re here and even though it&#39;s just for a little while, you get to enjoy all of this. <p><em>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; The Hunger Games, 2012</em></p></div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>In many past letters I remarked that currents were shifting beneath the surface of what appeared to be a calm stock market. In particular, I repeatedly stated that banks were a buy and utilities and staples were a sell.&nbsp; That trade has pretty much worked. As a result, I have cut my short position in utilities by 2/3, and have pared back my longs in banks.&nbsp; Why?&nbsp; Because those trades have worked on the back of the Federal Reserve providing some small rays of hope that they will raise their target for the Fed Funds rate in December. At the same time, other central banks (Japan in particular) are now indicating that they would like to see their yield curves steepen, which would help bank earnings and hurt the case for owning low-growth, expensive stocks just for the yield.&nbsp; From July 8th through October 12th, Utilities and Telecoms fell more than 9% while Financials increased nearly 5% and Tech stocks nearly 10%.&nbsp; The S&amp;P 500 overall?&nbsp; Up 0.50%.&nbsp;</div> <div> <div><a> <img alt="Picture" src="" /> </a></div> </div> <div style="margin-left: 40px;"><strong>Haymitch Abernathy: </strong>Embrace the probability of your imminent death, and know in your heart that there&#39;s nothing I can do to save you. <p><em>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; The Hunger Games, 2012</em></p></div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>This next part could have easily gone off on many tangents, but in the interest of brevity and clarity I cut about 90% of it.&nbsp; The short version: prepare your portfolio for some increasing volatility.&nbsp;</div> <div>Many ill-informed pundits have taken the recent absence of volatility to mean that it is gone for good. But many smart investors, like Tepper and Gundlach and Druckenmiller, who are paid to protect their clients&rsquo; money against large drawdowns are forgoing returns today (and incurring hedging costs to boot) in order to protect against an anticipated pickup in extreme events in the future.&nbsp; Why?&nbsp; Because they know that a financial market structure that is predicated on the inputs to the valuation models never changing in an adverse way is a market that cannot be saved forever. What the Fed and other central banks have tried to do by keeping rates at zero (or negative) for so long is to postpone the revaluation of risk-assets lower to compensate for the deterioration in the underlying earning power of the assets. That&rsquo;s it. All they have been trying to do is keep asset prices up so that the owners of those assets (banks, pension plans, investors, etc.) don&rsquo;t have to realize losses.&nbsp; They have been playing a game of kick the can down the road. &nbsp;But what if the game stops?&nbsp; What if they can no longer delay the repricing?&nbsp; What if, in other words, you shorten the time frame between repricing events but keep the overall price movement the same, instead of artificially elongating it?&nbsp; Well then you get massively increased volatility, much beyond what standard Gaussian models would predict. &nbsp;You get a <a href="">market that displays characteristics</a> of what Mandelbrot called &ldquo;fractional Brownian motion in multifractal trading time,&rdquo; and the more you shorten the time frame over which the market move occurs, the more volatile the market becomes. &nbsp;And when that happens, you get market crashes.&nbsp; So you can either embrace the probability of the imminent death of the bond market, or else there is nothing I can do to save you (well, your portfolio anyway).&nbsp;</div> <div> <div><a> <img alt="Picture" src="" /> </a></div> </div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div style="margin-left: 40px;"><strong>Seneca Crane: </strong>Everyone likes an underdog.<br /><strong>President Snow: </strong>I don&#39;t. <p>&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; The Hunger Games, 2012</p></div> <div>&nbsp;</div> <div>The bond market is, probabilistically speaking, an underdog to perform well over the next 2-3 years. Unfortunately for primarily stock investors like myself, the stock market has become inextricably tied to the bond market.&nbsp; As a result, I&rsquo;m still positioned more defensively than I have been since 2007, with my stock positions net neutral and an overlay of options to take advantage of any sell-offs.&nbsp; While the Fed may well be able keep a little hope alive that it will only very gradually raise interest rates, if investors begin to hope for more, to hope that the yield curve will normalize and steepen someday, then things may get dangerous. In that scenario, I wouldn&rsquo;t want to bet on the underdog.</div> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="548" height="484" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Bond Central Banks ETC Federal Reserve Gundlach High Yield Japan Monetary Policy recovery Volatility Yield Curve Fri, 21 Oct 2016 19:16:54 +0000 Tyler Durden 575669 at Russian Naval Fleet Filmed Off British Coast, Followed "Every Inch Of The Way" <p>Two days ago we reported that a Russian aircraft carrier <a href="">flotilla was spotted in international waters </a>off the Norwegian coast on its way to Syria where it is expected to arrive in just under two weeks. NATO was not amused, and a diplomat quoted by Reuters said that Russia is "<strong>deploying all of the Northern fleet and much of the Baltic fleet in the largest surface deployment since the end of the Cold War," </strong>and added that "this is not a friendly port call. In two weeks, we will see a crescendo of air attacks on Aleppo as part of Russia's strategy to declare victory there."</p> <p>Two days later, and the Russian flotilla, the biggest "since the end of the Cold War" is already off the coast of Britain, where Royal Navy vessels were closely monitoring the fleet as it passed through the English Channel at around 9am on Friday.&nbsp; </p> <p>Just like two days prior, the Russian fleet was not shy about being photographed and the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier, and Peter the Great, a Kirov class battlecruiser, were among the ships filmed off Ramsgate, Kent, in footage posted online. According to <a href="">the Telegraph </a>The Russian vessels were being shadowed by the Royal Navy as they headed towards the eastern Mediterranean via the Dover Strait.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="312" /></a></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="312" /></a></p> <p><em>The Admiral Kuznetzov passes through the English Channel near Kent <br /></em></p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="312" /></a></p> <p><em>Peter the Great, a Kirov class battlecruiser, filmed off the Kent coast on Friday morning </em></p> <p>Defense Secretary Sir Michael Fallon has said the Russian fleet will be marked "<strong>every inch of the way</strong>" as he claimed the deployment was aimed at testing British capabilities.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-video"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Royal Navy vessels are following Russian warships 'every inch of the way' as they pass through the English Channel on their way to Syria. <a href=""></a></p> <p>— ITV News (@itvnews) <a href="">October 21, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>Among the British ships deployed were a Type 45 destroyer, the HMS Duncan, which sailed from Portsmouth on Tuesday to "man-mark" the Kuznetsov group, and Type 23 frigate HMS Richmond escorted the group from the Norwegian Sea as it steamed south. On Friday morning, a Ministry of Defence spokesman told the Telegraph: "They are all in one line now. They have to be to effectively go through the traffic separation scheme, and they are progressing as expected.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="604" /></a></p> <p>"They haven't slowed or sped up. They are going to be past Dover in the next few hours. When they are clear of the Dover traffic separation scheme, they will probably break back out in a formation scheme and be on their way" the spokesman said, adding "we still don't know where that is and how they are going to get there, but everything so far has been exactly how we would have expected." Actually we know where they are headed, and it effectively guarantees a showdown with the US off the coast of Syria, in a rerun of the events from the summer of 2013.</p> <p>Meanwhile, locals were excited to watch as the Russian ships sailed close to Dover. A group of people gathered in Dover from the early hours to catch a glimpse of he flotilla, with some posting pictures on Twitter:</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">Took some time out this morning to watch the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov going past Dover. <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Jon Hall (@JonHall_) <a href="">October 21, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">Russian fleet passing through the English Channel off Dover <a href=""></a></p> <p>— Lee Gosbee (@LGosbee) <a href="">October 21, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>The Russian demonstration of naval power comes as Theresa May condemned Vladimir Putin's aggression in Syria, accusing Moscow of being behind "sickening atrocities" in support of Bashar Assad's regime. Syrian forces, backed by Russian air power, have agreed a temporary humanitarian truce in Aleppo, but Mrs May urged European leaders to take a firm line against Moscow.</p> <p>Arriving at her first Brussels summit as Prime Minister on Thursday, Mrs May called for a "robust and united European stance in the face of Russian aggression".</p> <p>As for Nato, the alliance said the prospect of Russia's only aircraft carrier heading to the region does not "inspire confidence" that Moscow is seeking a political solution to the Syrian crisis. While one can absolutely accuse Nato of the same, on this occasion the alliance may be right: Russia no longer does believe in a "political solution", which is precisely why it has, like in 2013, resorted to this dramatic escalation. </p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="643" height="346" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Reuters Twitter Twitter Fri, 21 Oct 2016 18:57:43 +0000 Tyler Durden 575666 at An Establishment In Panic <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via,</em></a></p> <p>Pressed by moderator Chris Wallace as to whether he would accept defeat should Hillary Clinton win the election, Donald Trump replied, &ldquo;I will tell you at the time. I&rsquo;ll keep you in suspense.&rdquo;</p> <p><em><strong>&ldquo;That&rsquo;s horrifying,&rdquo; said Clinton, setting off a chain reaction on the post-debate panels with talking heads falling all over one another in purple-faced anger, outrage and disbelief.</strong></em></p> <p><em><strong>&ldquo;Disqualifying!&rdquo;</strong> was the cry on Clinton cable.</em></p> <p><em><strong>&ldquo;Trump Won&rsquo;t Say If He Will Accept Election Results,&rdquo; </strong>wailed The New York Times. <strong>&ldquo;Trump Won&rsquo;t Vow to Honor Results,&rdquo; </strong>ran the banner in The Washington Post.</em></p> <p><strong>But what do these chattering classes and establishment bulletin boards think the Donald is going to do if he falls short of 270 electoral votes?</strong></p> <p>Lead a Coxey&rsquo;s Army on Washington and burn it down as British General Robert Ross did in August 1814, while &ldquo;Little Jemmy&rdquo; Madison fled on horseback out the Brookeville Road?</p> <p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><em><strong>What explains the hysteria of the establishment?</strong></em></span></p> <p>In a word, fear.</p> <p>The establishment is horrified at the Donald&rsquo;s defiance because, <strong>deep within its soul, it fears that the people for whom Trump speaks no longer accept its political legitimacy or moral authority.</strong></p> <p>It may rule and run the country, and may rig the system through mass immigration and a mammoth welfare state so that Middle America is never again able to elect one of its own. But that establishment, disconnected from the people it rules, senses, rightly, that it is unloved and even detested.</p> <p>Having fixed the future, the establishment finds half of the country looking upon it with the same sullen contempt that our Founding Fathers came to look upon the overlords Parliament sent to rule them.</p> <p><u><strong>Establishment panic is traceable to another fear: Its ideology, its political religion, is seen by growing millions as a golden calf, a 20th-century god that has failed.</strong></u></p> <p><strong>Trump is &ldquo;talking down our democracy,&rdquo; said a shocked Clinton.</strong></p> <p>After having expunged Christianity from our public life and public square, our establishment installed &ldquo;democracy&rdquo; as the new deity, at whose altars we should all worship. And so our schools began to teach.</p> <p>Half a millennia ago, missionaries and explorers set sail from Spain, England and France to bring Christianity to the New World.</p> <p><strong>Today, Clintons, Obamas and Bushes send soldiers and secularist tutors to &ldquo;establish democracy&rdquo; among the &ldquo;lesser breeds without the Law.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>Unfortunately, the natives, once democratized, return to their roots and vote for Hezbollah, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, using democratic processes and procedures to re-establish their true God.</p> <p><strong>And Allah is no democrat.</strong></p> <p>By suggesting he might not accept the results of a &ldquo;rigged election&rdquo; Trump is committing an unpardonable sin. But this new cult, this devotion to a new holy trinity of diversity, democracy and equality, is of recent vintage and has shallow roots.</p> <p>For none of the three &mdash; diversity, equality, democracy &mdash; is to be found in the Constitution, the Bill of Rights, the Federalist Papers or the Pledge of Allegiance. In the pledge, we are a republic.</p> <p>When Ben Franklin, emerging from the Philadelphia convention, was asked by a woman what kind of government they had created, he answered, &ldquo;A republic, if you can keep it.&rdquo;</p> <p><u><strong>Among many in the silent majority, Clintonian democracy is not an improvement upon the old republic; it is the corruption of it.</strong></u></p> <p><strong>Consider: Six months ago, Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, the Clinton bundler, announced that by executive action he would convert 200,000 convicted felons into eligible voters by November.</strong></p> <p>If that is democracy, many will say, to hell with it.</p> <p>And if felons decide the electoral votes of Virginia, and Virginia decides who is our next U.S. president, are we obligated to honor that election?</p> <p>In 1824, Gen. Andrew Jackson ran first in popular and electoral votes. But, short of a majority, the matter went to the House.</p> <p>There, Speaker Henry Clay and John Quincy Adams delivered the presidency to Adams &mdash; and Adams made Clay secretary of state, putting him on the path to the presidency that had been taken by Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and Adams himself.</p> <p>Were Jackson&rsquo;s people wrong to regard as a &ldquo;corrupt bargain&rdquo; the deal that robbed the general of the presidency?</p> <p><strong>The establishment also recoiled in horror from Milwaukee Sheriff Dave Clarke&rsquo;s declaration that it is now &ldquo;torches and pitchforks time.&rdquo;</strong></p> <p>Yet, some of us recall another time, when Supreme Court Justice William O. Douglas wrote in &ldquo;Points of Rebellion&rdquo;:</p> <p><strong><em>&ldquo;We must realize that today&rsquo;s Establishment is the new George III. Whether it will continue to adhere to his tactics, we do not know. If it does, the redress, honored in tradition, is also revolution.&rdquo;</em></strong></p> <p>Baby-boomer radicals loved it, raising their fists in defiance of Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew.</p> <p><u><strong>But now that it is the populist-nationalist right that is moving beyond the niceties of liberal democracy to save the America that they love, elitist enthusiasm for &ldquo;revolution&rdquo; seems more constrained.</strong></u></p> <p><strong>What goes around comes around.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="265" height="153" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Corruption Donald Trump fixed France New York Times None Fri, 21 Oct 2016 18:30:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 575658 at Germans Are Leaving Germany 'In Droves' <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,</em></a></p> <ul> <li><strong>More than 1.5 million Germans, many of them highly educated, left Germany during the past decade.</strong> &mdash; <em>Die Welt</em>.</li> <li>Germany is facing a spike in migrant crime, including an epidemic of rapes and sexual assaults. Mass migration is also accelerating the Islamization of Germany. Many Germans appear to be losing hope about the future direction of their country.</li> <li><strong>&quot;We refugees... do not want to live in the same country with you. You can, and I think you should, leave Germany. And please take Saxony and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with you.... Why do you not go to another country? We are sick of you!&quot; </strong>&mdash; Aras Bacho an 18-year-old Syrian migrant, in <em>Der Freitag</em>, October 2016.</li> <li>A real estate agent in a town near Lake Balaton, a popular tourist destination in western Hungary, said that 80% of the Germans relocating there cite the migration crisis as the main reason for their desire to leave Germany.</li> <li>&quot;I believe that Islam does not belong to Germany. I regard it as a foreign entity which has brought the West more problems than benefits. In my opinion, many followers of this religion are rude, demanding and despise Germany.&quot; &mdash; A German citizen who emigrated from Germany, in an &quot;Open Letter to the German Government.&quot;</li> <li><strong>&quot;I believe that immigration is producing major and irreversible changes in German society. I am angry that this is happening without the direct approval of German citizens. ... I believe that it is a shame that in Germany Jews must again be afraid to be Jews.&quot; </strong>&mdash; A German citizen who emigrated from Germany, in an &quot;Open Letter to the German Government.&quot;</li> <li>&quot;My husband sometimes says he has the feeling that we are now the largest minority with no lobby. For each group there is an institution, a location, a public interest, but for us, a heterosexual married couple with two children, not unemployed, neither handicapped nor Islamic, for people like us there is no longer any interest.&quot; &mdash; &quot;Anna,&quot; in a letter to the Mayor of Munich about her decision to move her family out of the city because migrants were making her life there impossible.</li> </ul> <p><strong>A growing number of Germans are abandoning neighborhoods in which they have lived all their lives, and others are leaving Germany for good, as mass immigration transforms parts of the country beyond recognition.</strong></p> <p>Data from the German statistics agency, Destatis, <a href="" target="_blank">shows</a> that 138,000 Germans left Germany in 2015. More are expected to emigrate in 2016. In a story on brain drain titled, &quot;German talent is leaving the country in droves,&quot; <em>Die Welt</em> <a href="" target="_blank">reported</a> that more than 1.5 million Germans, many of them highly educated, left Germany during the past decade.</p> <p>The statistics do not give a reason why Germans are emigrating, but anecdotal evidence indicates that many are waking up to the true cost &mdash; financial, social and cultural &mdash; of Chancellor Angela Merkel&#39;s decision to allow more than one million mostly Muslim migrants to enter the country in 2015. At least 300,000 more migrants are expected to arrive in Germany in 2016, <a href="" target="_blank">according</a> to Frank-Jürgen Weise, the head of the country&#39;s migration office, BAMF.</p> <p>Mass migration has &mdash; among many other problems &mdash; contributed to a growing sense of insecurity in Germany, which is facing a spike in migrant crime, including an <a href="" target="_blank">epidemic</a> of rapes and sexual assaults. Mass migration is also accelerating the Islamization of Germany. Many Germans appear to be losing hope about the future direction of their country.</p> <div style="display: block; text-align: center; margin-bottom: 10px;"><img border="0" height="399" src="" width="600" /></div> <p>At the height of the migrant crisis in October 2015, some 800 citizens gathered at a town hall meeting in Kassel/Lohfelden to protest a unilateral decision by the local government to set up migrant shelters in the city. The President of Kassel, Walter Lübcke, <a href="" target="_blank">responded</a> by telling those who disagree with the government&#39;s open-door immigration policy that they are &quot;free to leave Germany at any time.&quot;</p> <p>This attitude was echoed in an audacious essay published in October 2016 by the newspaper <em>Der Freitag</em>, (also published by Huffington Post Deutschland, which subsequently deleted the post). <strong>In the article, an 18-year-old Syrian migrant named Aras Bacho called on Germans who are angry about the migrant crisis to leave Germany. He <a href="" target="_blank">wrote</a>:</strong></p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;We refugees... are fed up with the angry citizens (<em>Wutbürger</em>). They insult and agitate like crazy.... There are always these incitements by unemployed racists (<em>Wutbürgern</em>), who spend all their time on the Internet and wait until an article about refugees appears on the Internet. Then it starts with shameless comments....</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;Hello, you unemployed angry citizens (<em>Wutbürger</em>) on the Internet. How educated are you? How long will you continue to distort the truth? Do you not know that you are spreading lies every day? What would you have done if you were in their shoes? Well, you would have run away!</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;We refugees... do not want to live in the same country with you. You can, and I think you should, leave Germany. And please take Saxony and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) with you.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;Germany does not fit you, why do you live here? Why do you not go to another country? If this is your country, dear angry citizens (<em>Wutbürger</em>), then behave normal. Otherwise you can simply flee from Germany and look for a new home. Go to America to Donald Trump, he will love you very much. We are sick of you!&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p>In May 2016, the newsmagazine, <em>Focus</em>, <a href="" target="_blank">reported</a> that Germans have been moving to Hungary. A real estate agent in a town near Lake Balaton, a popular tourist destination in western Hungary, said that 80% of the Germans relocating there cite the migration crisis as the main reason for their desire to leave Germany.</p> <p><strong>An anonymous German citizen who emigrated from Germany recently wrote an &quot;Open Letter to the German Government.&quot; </strong>The document, which was published on the website Politically Incorrect, <a href="" target="_blank">states</a>:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;A few months ago I emigrated from Germany. My decision was not for economic gain but primarily because of my dissatisfaction with the current political and social conditions in my homeland. In other words, I think that I and especially my offspring may lead a better life somewhere else. &#39;Better&#39; for me in this context is primarily a life of freedom, self-determination and decent wages with respect to taxation.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;I do not, however, want to close the door behind me quietly and just go. I would hereby like to explain in a constructive way why I decided to leave Germany.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>1. &quot;I believe that Islam does not belong to Germany. I regard it as a foreign entity which has brought the West more problems than benefits. In my opinion, many followers of this religion are rude, demanding and despise Germany. Instead of halting the Islamization of Germany (and the consequent demise of our culture and freedom), most politicians seem to me to be more concerned about getting reelected, and therefore they prefer to ignore or downplay the Islam problem.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>2. &quot;I believe that German streets are less secure than they should be given our technological, legal and financial opportunities.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>3. &quot;I believe that the EU has a democratic deficit which limits my influence as a democratic citizen.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>4. &quot;I believe that immigration is producing major and irreversible changes in German society. I am angry that this is happening without the direct approval of German citizens, but is being dictated by you to German citizens and the next generation.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>5. &quot;I believe that the German media is increasingly giving up its neutrality, and that freedom of expression in this country is only possible in a limited way.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>6. &quot;I believe that in Germany sluggards are courted but the diligent are scourged.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>7. &quot;I believe that it is a shame that in Germany Jews must again be afraid to be Jews.&quot;</p> </blockquote> <p>Many Germans have noted the trend toward reverse integration, in which German families are expected to adapt to the customs and mores of migrants, rather than the other way around.</p> <p>On October 14, the Munich-based newspaper <em>Tageszeitung</em> <a href="" target="_blank">published</a> a<strong> heartfelt letter from &quot;Anna,&quot; a mother of two, who wrote about her decision to move her family out of the city because migrants were making her life there impossible</strong>. In the letter, addressed to Munich Mayor Dieter Reiter, she wrote:</p> <blockquote><div class="quote_start"><div></div></div><div class="quote_end"><div></div></div><p>&quot;Today I want to write you a kind of farewell letter (<em>Abschiedsbrief</em>) about why I and my family are leaving the city, even though probably no one cares.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;I am 35 years old, living here with my two young sons and my husband in an upscale semi-detached house with parking. So you could say we are very well off for Munich standards.... We live very well with plenty of space and next to a green park. So why would a family like us decide to leave the city? ....</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;I assume that your children do not use public facilities, that they do not use public transportation, and that they do not attend public schools in &quot;problem areas.&quot; I also assume that you and other politicians rarely if ever go for walks here.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;So on a Monday morning I attended a neighborhood women&#39;s breakfast that was sponsored by the City of Munich. Here I met about 6-8 mothers, some with their children. All of the women wore headscarves and none of them spoke German. The organizers of the event quickly informed me I will probably find it hard to integrate myself here (their exact words!!!). I should note that I am German. I speak fluent German and I do not wear a headscarf. So I smiled a little and said I would try to integrate myself. Unfortunately, I brought a salami and ham sandwich to the breakfast, to which everyone was asked to bring something. So of course I had even less chance of integrating.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;I was not able to speak German to anyone at this women&#39;s breakfast, which is actually supposed to promote integration, nor was anyone interested in doing so. The organizers did not insist on anyone speaking German, and the women, who appeared to be part of an established Arab-Turkish group, simply wanted to use the room.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;I then asked about the family brunch.... I was advised that the brunch would be held in separate rooms. Men and women separately. At first I thought it was a bad joke. Unfortunately, it was not. ....</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;So my impression of these events to promote integration is miserable. No interchange takes place at all!!! How can the City of Munich tolerate such a thing? In my view, the entire concept of these events to promote integration must be called into question.... I was informed that I am not allowed to include pork in my child&#39;s lunchbox!!! Hello?! We are in Germany here! ....</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;In summary, I find conditions here that make me feel that we are not really wanted here. That our family does not really fit in here. My husband sometimes says he has the feeling that we are now the largest minority with no lobby. For each group there is an institution, a location, a public interest, but for us, a heterosexual married couple with two children, not unemployed, neither handicapped nor Islamic, for people like us there is no longer any interest.</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;When I mentioned at my son&#39;s preschool that we are considering moving out of the city and I told them the reasons why, I was vigorously attacked by the school&#39;s leadership. Because of people like us, they said, integration does not work, precisely because we remove our children. At least two other mothers have become wildly abusive. The management has now branded me &quot;xenophobic.&quot;</p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>&quot;This is exactly the reason why people like me lose their patience and we choose to vote for other political parties.... Quite honestly, I have traveled half the world, have more foreign friends than German and have absolutely no prejudices or aversions to people because of their origin. I have seen much of the world and I know that the way integration is done here will cause others to come to the same conclusion as we have: either we send our children to private schools and kindergartens, or we move to other communities. Well then, so long!!!!!!!!!!!&quot;</p> </blockquote> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="574" height="343" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Donald Trump Germany Hungary Newspaper None Real estate Fri, 21 Oct 2016 18:15:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 575591 at European Mars Lander Crashed On Impact <p>Two days ago, thrusters intended to slow a European lander as it neared Mars fired for less time than expected before contact with the vehicle was lost, leaving scientists uncertain whether it touched down safely or broke apart; it also left Eurosceptics bemused by what might be the latest symbolic failure of a European craft to escape the graviational hold of the imploding artificial union. </p> <p>The Schiaparelli probe, which some have pronounced as "Scraparalli", part of a broader mission to search for evidence of life (ideally of the pro-bail out variety) on the Red Planet, was to test technologies during the descent and on the surface for a rover scientists hope to send to Mars in 2020. Its descent marked only the second European attempt to land a craft on Mars, but it has shown no signs of life since it stopped transmitting around 50 seconds before Wednesday's planned touchdown.</p> <p>"We've had two overflights (by Mars orbiters) and there was no signal," the European Space Agency's (ESA) Spacecraft Operations Manager Andrea Accomazzo told journalists on Thursday.</p> <p><a href=""><img src="" width="500" height="281" /></a><br /><em>This is what the Schiaparelli would have looked like... had it not crashed.</em></p> <p>And while there was no signal, there was at least hope. Alas, that too died overnight when according to new data, the Schiaparelli probe was destroyed, crashing on impact. The European Space Agency (ESA) has confirmed the Schiaparelli spacecraft, which was expected to land on Mars on Wednesday, was lost.</p> <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p dir="ltr" lang="en">ESA David Parker: <a href="">#Mars</a> exploration is hard but that is why we do it. <a href="">#ExoMars</a></p> <p>— ESA (@esa) <a href="">October 20, 2016</a></p></blockquote> <script src="//"></script><p>The ESA craft fell to the Mars surface from a height of 2 to 4 kilometers (1.2 to 2.5 miles), the agency said on Friday. The disc-shaped spacecraft, which weighed 577 kilos (1,272 lb) was destroyed on impact. During a press conference on Thursday, scientists said that Schiaparelli stopped transmitting around 50 seconds before the expected landing.</p> <p>The agency suspected something went wrong when the parachute was jettisoned: "The ejection itself appears to have occurred earlier than expected, but analysis is not yet complete," it said in a statement.</p> <p>Yes, "jettisoning" your parachute when landing on a planet usually does not have a happy ending. </p> <p>Then again, perhaps the probe was just carrying a little extra debt as Europe was quietly hoping to ship its trillions in excess leverage to a different planet?</p> <p>ESA's Director General, Jan Wörner, said Schiaparelli's primary role was to test whether they could successfully land a probe on Mars. "Recording the data during the descent was part of that, and it is important we can learn what happened, in order to prepare for the future," Wörner said</p> <p>Earlier today, the <a href="">NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter </a>identified new markings on the surface of the Red Planet that are believed to be related to ESA’s ExoMars Schiaparelli entry, descent and landing technology demonstrator module. </p> <p>Schiaparelli entered the martian atmosphere at 14:42 GMT on 19 October for its 6-minute descent to the surface, but contact was lost shortly before expected touchdown. Data recorded by its mothership, the Trace Gas Orbiter, are currently being analysed to understand what happened during the descent sequence. </p> <p><img src="" width="508" height="350" /></p> <p>The low-resolution CTX camera on-board the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) took pictures of the expected touchdown site in Meridiani Planum on 20 October as part of a planned imaging campaign. The image released today has a resolution of 6 metres per pixel and shows two new features on the surface when compared to an image from the same camera taken in May this year. </p> <p> <a href=""><br /> <img src="" width="505" height="454" /></a></p> <p> </p> <p>This being Europe, the crash was quickly spun as a positive. David Parker, ESA's Director of Human Spaceflight and Robotic Exploration said it's what they wanted from a test. "We have data coming back that allows us to fully understand the steps that did occur, and why the soft landing did not occur," he said.</p> <p>Yes, a crash is precisely what Europe wanted from a working probe: clearly Jean-Claude Juncker's diplomatic skills have spread far. </p> <p>In typical European fashion, earlier this week, the ESA declared its ExoMars 2016 mission a success, despite losing contact with Schiaparelli just before its expected landing time. It has ended up being a total failure.</p> <p></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="780" height="438" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> Mars Fri, 21 Oct 2016 18:08:21 +0000 Tyler Durden 575662 at "It Will Be Tough For High Yield Spreads To Tighten From Here" <p><a href=""><em>Submitted by Eric Bush via Gavekal Capital blog,</em></a></p> <p><strong>High yield investors have had a much different experience in 2016 than they did in 2015 (fortunately for them).</strong> The high yield spread over 10-year treasury yield blew out from 375 bps in June 2015 to 844 bps in February 2016. After peaking in February, the roller coaster turned back down and spreads today stand at just 426 bps, nearly retracing the entire move in 2015.<strong> Given this powerful move, spreads have compressed to a point where history suggests&nbsp;we may be at the end of this narrowing cycle. </strong></p> <p><a href=""><img height="341" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>&nbsp;</p> <p>In the second chart below, we show the 9-month difference in&nbsp;the high yield spread over 10-year treasury yield. The light blue and<strong> red lines signify a 1-standard deviation from the mean going back 20 years. </strong></p> <p><a href=""><img height="347" src="" width="600" /></a></p> <p>As you can see outside of a crisis period (i.e. 2008-2009), <strong>high yield spreads tend to widen out against US treasuries when this series reaches a 1-standard deviation from the mean.</strong> We are currently right at that level which is why we believe it will be tougher for high yield spreads to narrow further from here.</p> <p><strong>Said differently, it seems to us that high yield bonds are overbought at the moment.</strong></p> <div class="field field-type-filefield field-field-image-teaser"> <div class="field-items"> <div class="field-item odd"> <img class="imagefield imagefield-field_image_teaser" width="1200" height="694" alt="" src="" /> </div> </div> </div> High Yield Fri, 21 Oct 2016 17:50:00 +0000 Tyler Durden 575654 at